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OpenAI starting to give off FTX vibes

The “trust me bro” Mount Rushmore

"We're oversold bro" Brother we just posted one of the most dramatic blow-off tops since covid, the Fed is hawkish, brent is $100 and the 10Y is 4.70 You can tell me you're buying an Iran TACO all you want but keep your eye on the ball man SPX is 3% off all time highs

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Imagine you’re explaining markets to someone who has no idea what they are, and telling them that no matter the asset, time period, the technology, or how many times it’s occurred, that the psychological structure of human nature repeats in the exact same way every single time

I think this all the time. Every model and every trader that has been trained on the equities market has learned by default that things always resolve up and to the right. The structural reinforcement is recursive

Trump’s business life has had 4 constants: - blitzkrieg-opens in negotiation - overleveraging himself - never working for another person at any point in his life - never worrying about spending, money or resources All 4 are in play now and we are at the same inevitable end:

Altman today: we are looking at selling compute, but we need as much as possible Zuck last week: we could sell compute Are we in a compute shortage or not? Because both are saying they’re buying as much of it as they can and thinking about selling it

The reason people hate data centers now and now 10 years ago is because they hate what the new ones represent. Old ones were utilities for the internet New ones are a means of enrichment for people no one likes and a technology they feel forced upon them

Took some HOOD puts. Its AUM is about $300~B and its market cap is $130b. If you want to bet that the economy slows down it’s the perfect play now that it is trading so close to its AUM SCHW’s AUM is $11.23T and its market cap is $176b

I think it is a reasonable suspicion that the Trump approach was - there is an antitrust argument against each of you hyperscalers - we will leave you alone and even give you policy advantage if you stimulate semis - stimulate semis so damn much that they have the capital to reshore and decouple us from China The reasons to use stocks to stimulate are obvious but I think the true scale of humiliation the hyperscalers are taking from each part of the supply chain is so damn bad that it seems intentional

Having gone through the reeling of losing someone, I’ve spent the last month looking at this job a little differently If you can’t see what a dumb load of bullshit this market has become I don’t know what to tell you. It’s a rigged, cheated, & dystopian casino devoid of reality

So why am I long puts across most of the AI space right now? Scaling laws. Meta showing issue with its spend. Oracle credit default swaps are bid. Critical mass is real, timing is hard, but I’m willing to take limited risk to the downside if I think that timing is approaching

I lost my best friend this month. Remember today and always that your time here will be defined by the depth of love you give those that matter.

OpenAI starting to give off FTX vibes

The “trust me bro” Mount Rushmore

"We're oversold bro" Brother we just posted one of the most dramatic blow-off tops since covid, the Fed is hawkish, brent is $100 and the 10Y is 4.70 You can tell me you're buying an Iran TACO all you want but keep your eye on the ball man SPX is 3% off all time highs

Altman today: we are looking at selling compute, but we need as much as possible Zuck last week: we could sell compute Are we in a compute shortage or not? Because both are saying they’re buying as much of it as they can and thinking about selling it

It is starting to feel irresponsible not having short exposure to semis. I started buying my first lines of puts today.

What parts of the market do you find interesting that offer a secular thesis independent of AI accel/decel and Hormuz open/closed?

The entire point of the Fed’s inflation Mandate is that growth, when too inflationary, is a bad thing Every time you talk about hiking, you get the “but you’ll stop the AI buildout” or “you’ll crash the economy” rebuttal America used to be a place where real meritocratic change in your life was affordable. You could save and improve your future, send your kids to school and start a family. It was why people moved to the US. We have now accepted to have an economy more like Latin America/Turkey in which everyone has a job, yet no one’s lives are improving. Everyone is on the treadmill trying to keep up. Saving doesn’t mean anything. Homes are unaffordable assets we can’t allow to fall, so young people see starting families as prohibitively expensive. In this regard, a job is a pacifier. It is a a bandaid, keeping you afloat but hardly improving your life. No one should have to speculate to make life affordable. With this in mind, the GDP growth the US is seeing only helps most Americans insofar as it keeps them off the streets. Their lives will forever be exactly the same and the American dream will never be theirs. Therein is the awakening. We’ve grown so accustomed to the inflation of the last 6 years that you forgot what it was like before Covid. Before Covid, prices were stable. Everything was cheap and you didn’t get the sense that the economy was a land trap, running away from you. A job could be a compounding piece of your life that would help you build and advance. In an age of runaway inflation, it is only a bandaid. And the destruction of stable inflation expectations is the knife. As someone so grateful for the United States of America, this is why managing inflation is so much bigger than stocks being up. It’s about an America where saving money means something, money has interest and being prudent with it matters, the cost of things you need for your life is pleasant and society offers you a ladder by which you can improve your life. We have destroyed the value of money and every day that we walk further away from restoring it is a step closer to the cliff. We can “run it hot” or we can restore the American meritocracy that makes this country the city on a hill of free market capitalism that it is. Not both.

Think it’s time in IONQ and RGTI. Added puts

Took some HOOD puts. Its AUM is about $300~B and its market cap is $130b. If you want to bet that the economy slows down it’s the perfect play now that it is trading so close to its AUM SCHW’s AUM is $11.23T and its market cap is $176b

At a simple level the Strait of Hormuz is closed and the question is: do you buy a tech-based market 7% off all time highs, after a massive rally, and bet the war is ending? Or do you let it play out a bit and be okay with buying it back a bit higher if it all works out ok?

There is something up with this guy. There is no way you have this many red flags in one character and zero issues result from it

Zuck cutting any spend on the metaverse is an obvious positive but the fact that management took a good, hard look at their metaverse spending and decided they should keep as much as 70% of it is a massive red flag

If these companies were generating cash, none of them would be diluting. They would never give investors a piece. We’d ask to buy and they would tell us to fuck off They are all diluting to raise $. Love Gavin but this is why the AI space gets so much hate. Not straightforward

The whole culture of people outside the stock market is broken All they see is “oh this trend will continue, this stock should go up and reflect that” Nevermind the fact that it peaked at something like 25x sales or that its user-growth-monetization estimates were untenable This is how you differentiate between someone who truly understands the market and a tourist

I lost my best friend this month. Remember today and always that your time here will be defined by the depth of love you give those that matter.

Imagine you’re explaining markets to someone who has no idea what they are, and telling them that no matter the asset, time period, the technology, or how many times it’s occurred, that the psychological structure of human nature repeats in the exact same way every single time