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OpenAI starting to give off FTX vibes

The “trust me bro” Mount Rushmore

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Altman today: we are looking at selling compute, but we need as much as possible Zuck last week: we could sell compute Are we in a compute shortage or not? Because both are saying they’re buying as much of it as they can and thinking about selling it

Took some HOOD puts. Its AUM is about $300~B and its market cap is $130b. If you want to bet that the economy slows down it’s the perfect play now that it is trading so close to its AUM SCHW’s AUM is $11.23T and its market cap is $176b

So why am I long puts across most of the AI space right now? Scaling laws. Meta showing issue with its spend. Oracle credit default swaps are bid. Critical mass is real, timing is hard, but I’m willing to take limited risk to the downside if I think that timing is approaching

Feels like this went largely un-noticed but it’s an important read as OpenAI starts to have an unnerving attitude about its financing

The whole culture of people outside the stock market is broken All they see is “oh this trend will continue, this stock should go up and reflect that” Nevermind the fact that it peaked at something like 25x sales or that its user-growth-monetization estimates were untenable This is how you differentiate between someone who truly understands the market and a tourist

Think it’s time in IONQ and RGTI. Added puts

Completely agree. This admin has been a mess but the military actions have been seriously impressive. That wins you a lot of credit with the American people

NFLX seem ready to bottom. IMO they’re going to get that $2.8b breakup fee when WBD takes PSKY’s offer and NFLX bows out of the takeover battle. Not without risk but the move higher if they take this dumb merger out of their leverage profile will be significant, I think.

PnL screenshot season can make you forget the insane amount of leverage some people are taking on. One of many reasons to never compare yourself and your trading to anyone else

Zuck cutting any spend on the metaverse is an obvious positive but the fact that management took a good, hard look at their metaverse spending and decided they should keep as much as 70% of it is a massive red flag

No one feels good about the economy No one feels good about affordability This economy is being managed exclusively for those close to the administration and it’s doing the country zero good beyond the wealth effect I don’t know how it can continue to sustain

Raytheon and Lockheed combined are worth 76% of what Palantir is worth. At some point that 277x multiple comes due

This is a totally unsurprising thing to say but the price couldn’t be more unreflective of it Putting the Iran conflict, private credit, halted Fed easing picture, and a mid-late-very-late~ stage semi cycle together Hard to find reasons to buy / get bulled up on indicies

OpenAI starting to give off FTX vibes

The “trust me bro” Mount Rushmore

Altman today: we are looking at selling compute, but we need as much as possible Zuck last week: we could sell compute Are we in a compute shortage or not? Because both are saying they’re buying as much of it as they can and thinking about selling it

Think it’s time in IONQ and RGTI. Added puts

Took some HOOD puts. Its AUM is about $300~B and its market cap is $130b. If you want to bet that the economy slows down it’s the perfect play now that it is trading so close to its AUM SCHW’s AUM is $11.23T and its market cap is $176b

At a simple level the Strait of Hormuz is closed and the question is: do you buy a tech-based market 7% off all time highs, after a massive rally, and bet the war is ending? Or do you let it play out a bit and be okay with buying it back a bit higher if it all works out ok?

There is something up with this guy. There is no way you have this many red flags in one character and zero issues result from it

Zuck cutting any spend on the metaverse is an obvious positive but the fact that management took a good, hard look at their metaverse spending and decided they should keep as much as 70% of it is a massive red flag

The whole culture of people outside the stock market is broken All they see is “oh this trend will continue, this stock should go up and reflect that” Nevermind the fact that it peaked at something like 25x sales or that its user-growth-monetization estimates were untenable This is how you differentiate between someone who truly understands the market and a tourist

What’s case against LULU long here? Last 3 quarters have been kitchen sink and management has turned over with stock at <14x fwd with tariff picture clarified and Wilson family starting to engage Seems like it goes to 150 if fashion moves away from them and 250 if this q is dec

So why am I long puts across most of the AI space right now? Scaling laws. Meta showing issue with its spend. Oracle credit default swaps are bid. Critical mass is real, timing is hard, but I’m willing to take limited risk to the downside if I think that timing is approaching

NFLX seem ready to bottom. IMO they’re going to get that $2.8b breakup fee when WBD takes PSKY’s offer and NFLX bows out of the takeover battle. Not without risk but the move higher if they take this dumb merger out of their leverage profile will be significant, I think.

I’m not going to lie, all of this looks terrible

No one feels good about the economy No one feels good about affordability This economy is being managed exclusively for those close to the administration and it’s doing the country zero good beyond the wealth effect I don’t know how it can continue to sustain

Feels like this went largely un-noticed but it’s an important read as OpenAI starts to have an unnerving attitude about its financing

Not bad I say to myself as it prints below $78 this evening