Get live statistics and analysis of André Dragosch, PhD⚡'s profile on X / Twitter
European Head of Research @ Bitwise - Author of exponential-gold.com - #Bitcoin - Macro - Not investment advice - Views strictly mine - Beware of impersonators
3kfollowing25kfollowers
The Thought Leader
André Dragosch, PhD⚡, is a master of Bitcoin and macroeconomic insights who educates and excites his audience with cutting-edge research and bold predictions. As European Head of Research at Bitwise and a prolific author, he skillfully bridges complex financial analysis with accessible wisdom. His voice commands respect, backed by deep expertise and a fearless take on the future of money.
For a guy who tweets as much as he breathes, André's timeline must be the only place where Bitcoin rumors turn into full-blown research papers overnight—if tweeting were an Olympic sport, he'd have enough gold to back the whole crypto market.
Securing the role of European Head of Research at Bitwise, a top-tier crypto asset management firm, and consistently producing viral, insightful content that influences institutional and retail investor perspectives alike.
To illuminate the rapidly evolving landscape of cryptocurrency and macroeconomics, sparking informed debate and accelerating mass adoption of Bitcoin through rigorous research and impactful communication.
André values intellectual rigor, transparency, and independent thought, believing that knowledge empowers people to navigate and innovate in the financial ecosystem. He champions Bitcoin as a transformative asset that reshapes global monetary paradigms and supports open discourse without promise of investment guarantees.
His ability to synthesize complex economic data into compelling narratives makes him an authority in his niche. His fearlessness in sharing bold, data-driven predictions and engaging his audience with timely, insightful content creates high engagement and trust.
Sometimes his high volume of tweets could overwhelm followers or cause key messages to get lost in the noise. Also, the highly specialized focus on Bitcoin and macro might limit appeal beyond crypto enthusiasts and finance professionals.
André should leverage Twitter’s thread feature even more to group his deep dives into concise, digestible series, enhancing shareability. Engaging in strategic collaborations with well-known crypto influencers on X can amplify his reach, while periodic AMAs could build more personal connections with his audience.
Fun fact: With over 29,000 tweets, André's relentless tweeting frequency rivals many news outlets—talk about a research powerhouse who never misses a beat on Bitcoin's biggest moves!
💥𝗡𝗘𝗪 𝗕𝗢𝗢𝗞 💥
I am very delighted to have published my new book called 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗼𝗻𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗚𝗼𝗹𝗱 which is now available on Amazon!
With a foreword by @Excellion !
It still feels surreal but there it is.
I am forever grateful to all the people who have contributed to this book including the guys at @KonsensusN 📚, especially Josefina, @edouard_knw , @OmniFinn and of course @joakimbook - the best editor for Bitcoin books that you could wish for!
Special thanks to all the expert commentators who spent their free time to review the early draft of my book: @BradleyDukeBTC@JanWues Janina Vinklere @SvenHildebrandt Dr. Eduard Baitinger Daniel Bathe Ronny Lehmann, CIIA, CEFA @thlbr Bryan Allworthy Martin @jam_longas Norbert Gehrke Stefan Ruile Daniel Ziegler
The book helps the reader understand the current transition to a new monetary standard, the innovation and utility of #Bitcoin, how to value Bitcoin, the macro factors influencing Bitcoin’s performance and how to implement Bitcoin into an asset allocation framework.
If you're a professional / institutional investor, this book is for you!
! Get your copy now from Amazon ! 👇
💥𝗡𝗘𝗪 𝗕𝗢𝗢𝗞 💥
I am very delighted to have published my new book called 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗼𝗻𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗚𝗼𝗹𝗱 which is now available on Amazon!
With a foreword by @Excellion !
It still feels surreal but there it is.
I am forever grateful to all the people who have contributed to this book including the guys at @KonsensusN 📚, especially Josefina, @edouard_knw , @OmniFinn and of course @joakimbook - the best editor for Bitcoin books that you could wish for!
Special thanks to all the expert commentators who spent their free time to review the early draft of my book: @BradleyDukeBTC@JanWues Janina Vinklere @SvenHildebrandt Dr. Eduard Baitinger Daniel Bathe Ronny Lehmann, CIIA, CEFA @thlbr Bryan Allworthy Martin @jam_longas Norbert Gehrke Stefan Ruile Daniel Ziegler
The book helps the reader understand the current transition to a new monetary standard, the innovation and utility of #Bitcoin, how to value Bitcoin, the macro factors influencing Bitcoin’s performance and how to implement Bitcoin into an asset allocation framework.
If you're a professional / institutional investor, this book is for you!
! Get your copy now from Amazon ! 👇
CMO @HubSpot ($HUBS), Dad, Angel Investor, Board Member, art and NFT collector. Learning all things Web 3. Co-Host of Marketing Against The Grain subscribe 👇🏼
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𝚒𝚗 𝚍𝚘𝚞𝚋𝚝, 𝚣𝚘𝚘𝚖 𝚘𝚞𝚝.\"\n\nThis is one of the key charts from our latest @BitwiseInvest Quarterly Market Review prepared by my US research colleagues @RasterlyRock, @Matt_Hougan, @singularity7x and others. \n\nIt can explain the ongoing adoption trend and even what's special about the current cycle of #bitcoin. \nData were provided courtesy of @river.\n\n[Seriously - you should bookmark this 🧵 for later review]. \n\n𝗨𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 \"𝗚𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗵 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗳𝗲𝗿\"\n\nThe key to understand is that #bitcoins are being distributed from early retail investors (\"individuals\") to institutional investors like funds/ETPs, businesses, and also governments. \n\nUnlike other traditional asset classes in history, #bitcoin adoption started with retail investors such as cypherpunks and early adopters first before institutional investors like family offices, fund managers, ETFs et al. started to do their first investment into #bitcoin. \n\nEven today, the percentage of retail* investors is still ~66%. That means the vast majority of bitcoins is still controlled by non-institutional investors (see tile chart above)!\n\nIn contrast, the very latest data from the 13F filings in the US reveal that the percentage allocations by institutional investors in traditional asset classes is significantly higher. \n\nTake a look at the % of major tradfi ETF institutional holdings:\n- iShares 20yr+ Treasury Bond ETF ($TLT) - 79% \n- SPDR S&P 500 ETF ($SPY) - 58%\n- SPDR Gold shares ETF ($GLD) - 36%\n\nCompare this to the latest insights from the BofA's global fund manager survey which revealed that the average allocation into cryptoassets (which includes #bitcoin but also other cryptoassets) is only 0.4% ‼️\n\n(BTW - IBIT's institutional holdings are just at 26%...)\n\n👉So, \"we're still early\" as they say in terms of institutional adoption. \n\nNonetheless, there is a significant wealth transfer from retail to institutional investors happening as we speak. \n\nYou will be surprised how many implications you can derive from this wealth transfer from early retail HODLers to institutional investors:\n\n𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗱𝗼𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗖𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗲. \n\n1⃣𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱.\nStating the obvious first, this transfer doesn't happen overnight. It is a longer-term trend. \n\nThe truth is: The majority of bitcoins are illiquid and are being \"HODLed\". \n\nOnly ~14.5% of $BTC supply is held on exchanges like Coinbase or Binance and is relatively liquid while the rest is being stored off exchange and remains illiquid. \n\n#Bitcoin wealth won't be transferred without any economic incentive. \n\nMany early adopters have a psychological (e.g. 1M USD per $BTC) or economic threshold (e.g. in order to \"buy a house\" etc) when to sell their precious bitcoins which is significantly higher than the current market price of around 115k USD. \n\nIn order to attract these illiquid coins to the market (i.e. exchanges), the price of #bitcoin will need to rise significantly. \n\nIn the process, #bitcoin adoption will broaden and more people will get exposure to the asset class as ETF holdings are held in a fiduciary matter for millions of individual investors. Treasury company shares are also being held by 100,000s of different investors. \n\nAt the time of writing, institutional investors (ETPs & treasury companies) hold around 12.5% of the BTC supply - and counting (fast). \n\n2⃣𝗖𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗲. \nProbably most analysts would agree that #Bitcoin's earlier bull & bear cycles used to be determined by the Halvings which happened every 210,000 blocks (~4 years) and halved the amount of bitcoin's produced by -50% (hence \"halving\"). \n\nHowever, the influence of these Halvings has been declining gradually over time with each successive halving, both in absolute terms and relative to the supply already in circulation. \n\nWith increasing institutional adoption and dominance of demand the effect of the Halving has clearly diminished. \n\nIn 2025, the demand from institutions has outsized the supply deficit induced by the halving by a factor of around ~7 x times already! \n\nIn the process, the relative importance of the traditional macro cycle has increased - #Bitcoin has become a true \"macro asset\". \n\nThis is also what our own quantitative analyses suggest - 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝟴𝟬% 𝗼𝗳 𝗯𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻'𝘀 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘃𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝟲 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵𝘀 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀, 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼 𝗳𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀. Less than 5% by coin-specific factors. 🤯\n\nHowever, the dominance of macro factors also implies that bitcoin's bull & bear cycles will fluctuate with macro/business cycles going forward and that the 4-year cycle induced by the Halvings is most likely \"dead\". \n\nIt ultimately means that bitcoins will be accumulated and distributed dependent on the dominant macro regime (expansion/boom vs contraction/recession) which will create short-term up- and downswings in price in a risk-on/risk-off fashion. \n\n𝗧𝗟;𝗗𝗥: \n- The \"Great Wealth Transfer\" ultimately means that prices will need to go higher - much higher - in order to incentivise further adoption of bitcoins and the transfer from early retail investors to institutional investors . \n\n- Further adoption by institutional investors means that bitcoin has become a true \"macro asset\" implying that future bull & bear cycles will increasingly be determined by macro/business cycles and not so much by the Halving. \n\nThanks for reading! \n\nHope you enjoyed this thread! 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𝚒𝚗 𝚍𝚘𝚞𝚋𝚝, 𝚣𝚘𝚘𝚖 𝚘𝚞𝚝.\"\n\nThis is one of the key charts from our latest @BitwiseInvest Quarterly Market Review prepared by my US research colleagues @RasterlyRock, @Matt_Hougan, @singularity7x and others. \n\nIt can explain the ongoing adoption trend and even what's special about the current cycle of #bitcoin. \nData were provided courtesy of @river.\n\n[Seriously - you should bookmark this 🧵 for later review]. \n\n𝗨𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 \"𝗚𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗵 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗳𝗲𝗿\"\n\nThe key to understand is that #bitcoins are being distributed from early retail investors (\"individuals\") to institutional investors like funds/ETPs, businesses, and also governments. \n\nUnlike other traditional asset classes in history, #bitcoin adoption started with retail investors such as cypherpunks and early adopters first before institutional investors like family offices, fund managers, ETFs et al. started to do their first investment into #bitcoin. \n\nEven today, the percentage of retail* investors is still ~66%. That means the vast majority of bitcoins is still controlled by non-institutional investors (see tile chart above)!\n\nIn contrast, the very latest data from the 13F filings in the US reveal that the percentage allocations by institutional investors in traditional asset classes is significantly higher. \n\nTake a look at the % of major tradfi ETF institutional holdings:\n- iShares 20yr+ Treasury Bond ETF ($TLT) - 79% \n- SPDR S&P 500 ETF ($SPY) - 58%\n- SPDR Gold shares ETF ($GLD) - 36%\n\nCompare this to the latest insights from the BofA's global fund manager survey which revealed that the average allocation into cryptoassets (which includes #bitcoin but also other cryptoassets) is only 0.4% ‼️\n\n(BTW - IBIT's institutional holdings are just at 26%...)\n\n👉So, \"we're still early\" as they say in terms of institutional adoption. \n\nNonetheless, there is a significant wealth transfer from retail to institutional investors happening as we speak. \n\nYou will be surprised how many implications you can derive from this wealth transfer from early retail HODLers to institutional investors:\n\n𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗱𝗼𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗖𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗲. \n\n1⃣𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱.\nStating the obvious first, this transfer doesn't happen overnight. It is a longer-term trend. \n\nThe truth is: The majority of bitcoins are illiquid and are being \"HODLed\". \n\nOnly ~14.5% of $BTC supply is held on exchanges like Coinbase or Binance and is relatively liquid while the rest is being stored off exchange and remains illiquid. \n\n#Bitcoin wealth won't be transferred without any economic incentive. \n\nMany early adopters have a psychological (e.g. 1M USD per $BTC) or economic threshold (e.g. in order to \"buy a house\" etc) when to sell their precious bitcoins which is significantly higher than the current market price of around 115k USD. \n\nIn order to attract these illiquid coins to the market (i.e. exchanges), the price of #bitcoin will need to rise significantly. \n\nIn the process, #bitcoin adoption will broaden and more people will get exposure to the asset class as ETF holdings are held in a fiduciary matter for millions of individual investors. Treasury company shares are also being held by 100,000s of different investors. \n\nAt the time of writing, institutional investors (ETPs & treasury companies) hold around 12.5% of the BTC supply - and counting (fast). \n\n2⃣𝗖𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗲. \nProbably most analysts would agree that #Bitcoin's earlier bull & bear cycles used to be determined by the Halvings which happened every 210,000 blocks (~4 years) and halved the amount of bitcoin's produced by -50% (hence \"halving\"). \n\nHowever, the influence of these Halvings has been declining gradually over time with each successive halving, both in absolute terms and relative to the supply already in circulation. \n\nWith increasing institutional adoption and dominance of demand the effect of the Halving has clearly diminished. \n\nIn 2025, the demand from institutions has outsized the supply deficit induced by the halving by a factor of around ~7 x times already! \n\nIn the process, the relative importance of the traditional macro cycle has increased - #Bitcoin has become a true \"macro asset\". \n\nThis is also what our own quantitative analyses suggest - 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝟴𝟬% 𝗼𝗳 𝗯𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻'𝘀 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘃𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝟲 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵𝘀 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀, 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼 𝗳𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀. Less than 5% by coin-specific factors. 🤯\n\nHowever, the dominance of macro factors also implies that bitcoin's bull & bear cycles will fluctuate with macro/business cycles going forward and that the 4-year cycle induced by the Halvings is most likely \"dead\". \n\nIt ultimately means that bitcoins will be accumulated and distributed dependent on the dominant macro regime (expansion/boom vs contraction/recession) which will create short-term up- and downswings in price in a risk-on/risk-off fashion. \n\n𝗧𝗟;𝗗𝗥: \n- The \"Great Wealth Transfer\" ultimately means that prices will need to go higher - much higher - in order to incentivise further adoption of bitcoins and the transfer from early retail investors to institutional investors . \n\n- Further adoption by institutional investors means that bitcoin has become a true \"macro asset\" implying that future bull & bear cycles will increasingly be determined by macro/business cycles and not so much by the Halving. \n\nThanks for reading! \n\nHope you enjoyed this thread! Appreciated you being here. \n\nFollow me 👉 @Andre_Dragosch for more institutional-grade #bitcoin & macro insights. \n\nStay humble and stack Sats,\nAndré","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,39],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1308378346464698368","name":"Rob Wallace │ Bitcoin News","screen_name":"_Rob_Wallace","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"_Rob_Wallace","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983030391456801241","view_count":42,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761626262000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"757546828497911808","conversation_id_str":"1982937015516635357","full_text":"@_Rob_Wallace Looking good! 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𝚒𝚗 𝚍𝚘𝚞𝚋𝚝, 𝚣𝚘𝚘𝚖 𝚘𝚞𝚝.\"\n\nThis is one of the key charts from our latest @BitwiseInvest Quarterly Market Review prepared by my US research colleagues @RasterlyRock, @Matt_Hougan, @singularity7x and others. \n\nIt can explain the ongoing adoption trend and even what's special about the current cycle of #bitcoin. \nData were provided courtesy of @river.\n\n[Seriously - you should bookmark this 🧵 for later review]. \n\n𝗨𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 \"𝗚𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗵 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗳𝗲𝗿\"\n\nThe key to understand is that #bitcoins are being distributed from early retail investors (\"individuals\") to institutional investors like funds/ETPs, businesses, and also governments. \n\nUnlike other traditional asset classes in history, #bitcoin adoption started with retail investors such as cypherpunks and early adopters first before institutional investors like family offices, fund managers, ETFs et al. started to do their first investment into #bitcoin. \n\nEven today, the percentage of retail* investors is still ~66%. That means the vast majority of bitcoins is still controlled by non-institutional investors (see tile chart above)!\n\nIn contrast, the very latest data from the 13F filings in the US reveal that the percentage allocations by institutional investors in traditional asset classes is significantly higher. \n\nTake a look at the % of major tradfi ETF institutional holdings:\n- iShares 20yr+ Treasury Bond ETF ($TLT) - 79% \n- SPDR S&P 500 ETF ($SPY) - 58%\n- SPDR Gold shares ETF ($GLD) - 36%\n\nCompare this to the latest insights from the BofA's global fund manager survey which revealed that the average allocation into cryptoassets (which includes #bitcoin but also other cryptoassets) is only 0.4% ‼️\n\n(BTW - IBIT's institutional holdings are just at 26%...)\n\n👉So, \"we're still early\" as they say in terms of institutional adoption. \n\nNonetheless, there is a significant wealth transfer from retail to institutional investors happening as we speak. \n\nYou will be surprised how many implications you can derive from this wealth transfer from early retail HODLers to institutional investors:\n\n𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗱𝗼𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗖𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗲. \n\n1⃣𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱.\nStating the obvious first, this transfer doesn't happen overnight. It is a longer-term trend. \n\nThe truth is: The majority of bitcoins are illiquid and are being \"HODLed\". \n\nOnly ~14.5% of $BTC supply is held on exchanges like Coinbase or Binance and is relatively liquid while the rest is being stored off exchange and remains illiquid. \n\n#Bitcoin wealth won't be transferred without any economic incentive. \n\nMany early adopters have a psychological (e.g. 1M USD per $BTC) or economic threshold (e.g. in order to \"buy a house\" etc) when to sell their precious bitcoins which is significantly higher than the current market price of around 115k USD. \n\nIn order to attract these illiquid coins to the market (i.e. exchanges), the price of #bitcoin will need to rise significantly. \n\nIn the process, #bitcoin adoption will broaden and more people will get exposure to the asset class as ETF holdings are held in a fiduciary matter for millions of individual investors. Treasury company shares are also being held by 100,000s of different investors. \n\nAt the time of writing, institutional investors (ETPs & treasury companies) hold around 12.5% of the BTC supply - and counting (fast). \n\n2⃣𝗖𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗲. \nProbably most analysts would agree that #Bitcoin's earlier bull & bear cycles used to be determined by the Halvings which happened every 210,000 blocks (~4 years) and halved the amount of bitcoin's produced by -50% (hence \"halving\"). \n\nHowever, the influence of these Halvings has been declining gradually over time with each successive halving, both in absolute terms and relative to the supply already in circulation. \n\nWith increasing institutional adoption and dominance of demand the effect of the Halving has clearly diminished. \n\nIn 2025, the demand from institutions has outsized the supply deficit induced by the halving by a factor of around ~7 x times already! \n\nIn the process, the relative importance of the traditional macro cycle has increased - #Bitcoin has become a true \"macro asset\". \n\nThis is also what our own quantitative analyses suggest - 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝟴𝟬% 𝗼𝗳 𝗯𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻'𝘀 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘃𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝟲 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵𝘀 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀, 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼 𝗳𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀. Less than 5% by coin-specific factors. 🤯\n\nHowever, the dominance of macro factors also implies that bitcoin's bull & bear cycles will fluctuate with macro/business cycles going forward and that the 4-year cycle induced by the Halvings is most likely \"dead\". \n\nIt ultimately means that bitcoins will be accumulated and distributed dependent on the dominant macro regime (expansion/boom vs contraction/recession) which will create short-term up- and downswings in price in a risk-on/risk-off fashion. \n\n𝗧𝗟;𝗗𝗥: \n- The \"Great Wealth Transfer\" ultimately means that prices will need to go higher - much higher - in order to incentivise further adoption of bitcoins and the transfer from early retail investors to institutional investors . \n\n- Further adoption by institutional investors means that bitcoin has become a true \"macro asset\" implying that future bull & bear cycles will increasingly be determined by macro/business cycles and not so much by the Halving. \n\nThanks for reading! \n\nHope you enjoyed this thread! Appreciated you being here. \n\nFollow me 👉 @Andre_Dragosch for more institutional-grade #bitcoin & macro insights. \n\nStay humble and stack Sats,\nAndré","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,39],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1308378346464698368","name":"Rob Wallace │ Bitcoin News","screen_name":"_Rob_Wallace","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"_Rob_Wallace","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983030391456801241","view_count":42,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761626262000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"757546828497911808","conversation_id_str":"1982937015516635357","full_text":"@_Rob_Wallace Looking good! 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𝚒𝚗 𝚍𝚘𝚞𝚋𝚝, 𝚣𝚘𝚘𝚖 𝚘𝚞𝚝.\"\n\nThis is one of the key charts from our latest @BitwiseInvest Quarterly Market Review prepared by my US research colleagues @RasterlyRock, @Matt_Hougan, @singularity7x and others. \n\nIt can explain the ongoing adoption trend and even what's special about the current cycle of #bitcoin. \nData were provided courtesy of @river.\n\n[Seriously - you should bookmark this 🧵 for later review]. \n\n𝗨𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 \"𝗚𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗵 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗳𝗲𝗿\"\n\nThe key to understand is that #bitcoins are being distributed from early retail investors (\"individuals\") to institutional investors like funds/ETPs, businesses, and also governments. \n\nUnlike other traditional asset classes in history, #bitcoin adoption started with retail investors such as cypherpunks and early adopters first before institutional investors like family offices, fund managers, ETFs et al. started to do their first investment into #bitcoin. \n\nEven today, the percentage of retail* investors is still ~66%. That means the vast majority of bitcoins is still controlled by non-institutional investors (see tile chart above)!\n\nIn contrast, the very latest data from the 13F filings in the US reveal that the percentage allocations by institutional investors in traditional asset classes is significantly higher. \n\nTake a look at the % of major tradfi ETF institutional holdings:\n- iShares 20yr+ Treasury Bond ETF ($TLT) - 79% \n- SPDR S&P 500 ETF ($SPY) - 58%\n- SPDR Gold shares ETF ($GLD) - 36%\n\nCompare this to the latest insights from the BofA's global fund manager survey which revealed that the average allocation into cryptoassets (which includes #bitcoin but also other cryptoassets) is only 0.4% ‼️\n\n(BTW - IBIT's institutional holdings are just at 26%...)\n\n👉So, \"we're still early\" as they say in terms of institutional adoption. \n\nNonetheless, there is a significant wealth transfer from retail to institutional investors happening as we speak. \n\nYou will be surprised how many implications you can derive from this wealth transfer from early retail HODLers to institutional investors:\n\n𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗱𝗼𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗖𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗲. \n\n1⃣𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱.\nStating the obvious first, this transfer doesn't happen overnight. It is a longer-term trend. \n\nThe truth is: The majority of bitcoins are illiquid and are being \"HODLed\". \n\nOnly ~14.5% of $BTC supply is held on exchanges like Coinbase or Binance and is relatively liquid while the rest is being stored off exchange and remains illiquid. \n\n#Bitcoin wealth won't be transferred without any economic incentive. \n\nMany early adopters have a psychological (e.g. 1M USD per $BTC) or economic threshold (e.g. in order to \"buy a house\" etc) when to sell their precious bitcoins which is significantly higher than the current market price of around 115k USD. \n\nIn order to attract these illiquid coins to the market (i.e. exchanges), the price of #bitcoin will need to rise significantly. \n\nIn the process, #bitcoin adoption will broaden and more people will get exposure to the asset class as ETF holdings are held in a fiduciary matter for millions of individual investors. Treasury company shares are also being held by 100,000s of different investors. \n\nAt the time of writing, institutional investors (ETPs & treasury companies) hold around 12.5% of the BTC supply - and counting (fast). \n\n2⃣𝗖𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗲. \nProbably most analysts would agree that #Bitcoin's earlier bull & bear cycles used to be determined by the Halvings which happened every 210,000 blocks (~4 years) and halved the amount of bitcoin's produced by -50% (hence \"halving\"). \n\nHowever, the influence of these Halvings has been declining gradually over time with each successive halving, both in absolute terms and relative to the supply already in circulation. \n\nWith increasing institutional adoption and dominance of demand the effect of the Halving has clearly diminished. \n\nIn 2025, the demand from institutions has outsized the supply deficit induced by the halving by a factor of around ~7 x times already! \n\nIn the process, the relative importance of the traditional macro cycle has increased - #Bitcoin has become a true \"macro asset\". \n\nThis is also what our own quantitative analyses suggest - 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝟴𝟬% 𝗼𝗳 𝗯𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻'𝘀 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘃𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝟲 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵𝘀 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀, 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼 𝗳𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀. Less than 5% by coin-specific factors. 🤯\n\nHowever, the dominance of macro factors also implies that bitcoin's bull & bear cycles will fluctuate with macro/business cycles going forward and that the 4-year cycle induced by the Halvings is most likely \"dead\". \n\nIt ultimately means that bitcoins will be accumulated and distributed dependent on the dominant macro regime (expansion/boom vs contraction/recession) which will create short-term up- and downswings in price in a risk-on/risk-off fashion. \n\n𝗧𝗟;𝗗𝗥: \n- The \"Great Wealth Transfer\" ultimately means that prices will need to go higher - much higher - in order to incentivise further adoption of bitcoins and the transfer from early retail investors to institutional investors . \n\n- Further adoption by institutional investors means that bitcoin has become a true \"macro asset\" implying that future bull & bear cycles will increasingly be determined by macro/business cycles and not so much by the Halving. \n\nThanks for reading! \n\nHope you enjoyed this thread! Appreciated you being here. \n\nFollow me 👉 @Andre_Dragosch for more institutional-grade #bitcoin & macro insights. \n\nStay humble and stack Sats,\nAndré","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,39],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1308378346464698368","name":"Rob Wallace │ Bitcoin News","screen_name":"_Rob_Wallace","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"_Rob_Wallace","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983030391456801241","view_count":42,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761626262000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"757546828497911808","conversation_id_str":"1982937015516635357","full_text":"@_Rob_Wallace Looking good! 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𝚒𝚗 𝚍𝚘𝚞𝚋𝚝, 𝚣𝚘𝚘𝚖 𝚘𝚞𝚝.\"\n\nThis is one of the key charts from our latest @BitwiseInvest Quarterly Market Review prepared by my US research colleagues @RasterlyRock, @Matt_Hougan, @singularity7x and others. \n\nIt can explain the ongoing adoption trend and even what's special about the current cycle of #bitcoin. \nData were provided courtesy of @river.\n\n[Seriously - you should bookmark this 🧵 for later review]. \n\n𝗨𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 \"𝗚𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗵 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗳𝗲𝗿\"\n\nThe key to understand is that #bitcoins are being distributed from early retail investors (\"individuals\") to institutional investors like funds/ETPs, businesses, and also governments. \n\nUnlike other traditional asset classes in history, #bitcoin adoption started with retail investors such as cypherpunks and early adopters first before institutional investors like family offices, fund managers, ETFs et al. started to do their first investment into #bitcoin. \n\nEven today, the percentage of retail* investors is still ~66%. That means the vast majority of bitcoins is still controlled by non-institutional investors (see tile chart above)!\n\nIn contrast, the very latest data from the 13F filings in the US reveal that the percentage allocations by institutional investors in traditional asset classes is significantly higher. \n\nTake a look at the % of major tradfi ETF institutional holdings:\n- iShares 20yr+ Treasury Bond ETF ($TLT) - 79% \n- SPDR S&P 500 ETF ($SPY) - 58%\n- SPDR Gold shares ETF ($GLD) - 36%\n\nCompare this to the latest insights from the BofA's global fund manager survey which revealed that the average allocation into cryptoassets (which includes #bitcoin but also other cryptoassets) is only 0.4% ‼️\n\n(BTW - IBIT's institutional holdings are just at 26%...)\n\n👉So, \"we're still early\" as they say in terms of institutional adoption. \n\nNonetheless, there is a significant wealth transfer from retail to institutional investors happening as we speak. \n\nYou will be surprised how many implications you can derive from this wealth transfer from early retail HODLers to institutional investors:\n\n𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗱𝗼𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗖𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗲. \n\n1⃣𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱.\nStating the obvious first, this transfer doesn't happen overnight. It is a longer-term trend. \n\nThe truth is: The majority of bitcoins are illiquid and are being \"HODLed\". \n\nOnly ~14.5% of $BTC supply is held on exchanges like Coinbase or Binance and is relatively liquid while the rest is being stored off exchange and remains illiquid. \n\n#Bitcoin wealth won't be transferred without any economic incentive. \n\nMany early adopters have a psychological (e.g. 1M USD per $BTC) or economic threshold (e.g. in order to \"buy a house\" etc) when to sell their precious bitcoins which is significantly higher than the current market price of around 115k USD. \n\nIn order to attract these illiquid coins to the market (i.e. exchanges), the price of #bitcoin will need to rise significantly. \n\nIn the process, #bitcoin adoption will broaden and more people will get exposure to the asset class as ETF holdings are held in a fiduciary matter for millions of individual investors. Treasury company shares are also being held by 100,000s of different investors. \n\nAt the time of writing, institutional investors (ETPs & treasury companies) hold around 12.5% of the BTC supply - and counting (fast). \n\n2⃣𝗖𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗲. \nProbably most analysts would agree that #Bitcoin's earlier bull & bear cycles used to be determined by the Halvings which happened every 210,000 blocks (~4 years) and halved the amount of bitcoin's produced by -50% (hence \"halving\"). \n\nHowever, the influence of these Halvings has been declining gradually over time with each successive halving, both in absolute terms and relative to the supply already in circulation. \n\nWith increasing institutional adoption and dominance of demand the effect of the Halving has clearly diminished. \n\nIn 2025, the demand from institutions has outsized the supply deficit induced by the halving by a factor of around ~7 x times already! \n\nIn the process, the relative importance of the traditional macro cycle has increased - #Bitcoin has become a true \"macro asset\". \n\nThis is also what our own quantitative analyses suggest - 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝟴𝟬% 𝗼𝗳 𝗯𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻'𝘀 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘃𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝟲 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵𝘀 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀, 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼 𝗳𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀. Less than 5% by coin-specific factors. 🤯\n\nHowever, the dominance of macro factors also implies that bitcoin's bull & bear cycles will fluctuate with macro/business cycles going forward and that the 4-year cycle induced by the Halvings is most likely \"dead\". \n\nIt ultimately means that bitcoins will be accumulated and distributed dependent on the dominant macro regime (expansion/boom vs contraction/recession) which will create short-term up- and downswings in price in a risk-on/risk-off fashion. \n\n𝗧𝗟;𝗗𝗥: \n- The \"Great Wealth Transfer\" ultimately means that prices will need to go higher - much higher - in order to incentivise further adoption of bitcoins and the transfer from early retail investors to institutional investors . \n\n- Further adoption by institutional investors means that bitcoin has become a true \"macro asset\" implying that future bull & bear cycles will increasingly be determined by macro/business cycles and not so much by the Halving. \n\nThanks for reading! \n\nHope you enjoyed this thread! Appreciated you being here. \n\nFollow me 👉 @Andre_Dragosch for more institutional-grade #bitcoin & macro insights. \n\nStay humble and stack Sats,\nAndré","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,39],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1308378346464698368","name":"Rob Wallace │ Bitcoin News","screen_name":"_Rob_Wallace","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"_Rob_Wallace","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983030391456801241","view_count":42,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761626262000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"757546828497911808","conversation_id_str":"1982937015516635357","full_text":"@_Rob_Wallace Looking good! 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𝚒𝚗 𝚍𝚘𝚞𝚋𝚝, 𝚣𝚘𝚘𝚖 𝚘𝚞𝚝.\"\n\nThis is one of the key charts from our latest @BitwiseInvest Quarterly Market Review prepared by my US research colleagues @RasterlyRock, @Matt_Hougan, @singularity7x and others. \n\nIt can explain the ongoing adoption trend and even what's special about the current cycle of #bitcoin. \nData were provided courtesy of @river.\n\n[Seriously - you should bookmark this 🧵 for later review]. \n\n𝗨𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 \"𝗚𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗵 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗳𝗲𝗿\"\n\nThe key to understand is that #bitcoins are being distributed from early retail investors (\"individuals\") to institutional investors like funds/ETPs, businesses, and also governments. \n\nUnlike other traditional asset classes in history, #bitcoin adoption started with retail investors such as cypherpunks and early adopters first before institutional investors like family offices, fund managers, ETFs et al. started to do their first investment into #bitcoin. \n\nEven today, the percentage of retail* investors is still ~66%. That means the vast majority of bitcoins is still controlled by non-institutional investors (see tile chart above)!\n\nIn contrast, the very latest data from the 13F filings in the US reveal that the percentage allocations by institutional investors in traditional asset classes is significantly higher. \n\nTake a look at the % of major tradfi ETF institutional holdings:\n- iShares 20yr+ Treasury Bond ETF ($TLT) - 79% \n- SPDR S&P 500 ETF ($SPY) - 58%\n- SPDR Gold shares ETF ($GLD) - 36%\n\nCompare this to the latest insights from the BofA's global fund manager survey which revealed that the average allocation into cryptoassets (which includes #bitcoin but also other cryptoassets) is only 0.4% ‼️\n\n(BTW - IBIT's institutional holdings are just at 26%...)\n\n👉So, \"we're still early\" as they say in terms of institutional adoption. \n\nNonetheless, there is a significant wealth transfer from retail to institutional investors happening as we speak. \n\nYou will be surprised how many implications you can derive from this wealth transfer from early retail HODLers to institutional investors:\n\n𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗱𝗼𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗖𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗲. \n\n1⃣𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱.\nStating the obvious first, this transfer doesn't happen overnight. It is a longer-term trend. \n\nThe truth is: The majority of bitcoins are illiquid and are being \"HODLed\". \n\nOnly ~14.5% of $BTC supply is held on exchanges like Coinbase or Binance and is relatively liquid while the rest is being stored off exchange and remains illiquid. \n\n#Bitcoin wealth won't be transferred without any economic incentive. \n\nMany early adopters have a psychological (e.g. 1M USD per $BTC) or economic threshold (e.g. in order to \"buy a house\" etc) when to sell their precious bitcoins which is significantly higher than the current market price of around 115k USD. \n\nIn order to attract these illiquid coins to the market (i.e. exchanges), the price of #bitcoin will need to rise significantly. \n\nIn the process, #bitcoin adoption will broaden and more people will get exposure to the asset class as ETF holdings are held in a fiduciary matter for millions of individual investors. Treasury company shares are also being held by 100,000s of different investors. \n\nAt the time of writing, institutional investors (ETPs & treasury companies) hold around 12.5% of the BTC supply - and counting (fast). \n\n2⃣𝗖𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗲. \nProbably most analysts would agree that #Bitcoin's earlier bull & bear cycles used to be determined by the Halvings which happened every 210,000 blocks (~4 years) and halved the amount of bitcoin's produced by -50% (hence \"halving\"). \n\nHowever, the influence of these Halvings has been declining gradually over time with each successive halving, both in absolute terms and relative to the supply already in circulation. \n\nWith increasing institutional adoption and dominance of demand the effect of the Halving has clearly diminished. \n\nIn 2025, the demand from institutions has outsized the supply deficit induced by the halving by a factor of around ~7 x times already! \n\nIn the process, the relative importance of the traditional macro cycle has increased - #Bitcoin has become a true \"macro asset\". \n\nThis is also what our own quantitative analyses suggest - 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝟴𝟬% 𝗼𝗳 𝗯𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻'𝘀 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘃𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝟲 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵𝘀 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀, 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼 𝗳𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀. Less than 5% by coin-specific factors. 🤯\n\nHowever, the dominance of macro factors also implies that bitcoin's bull & bear cycles will fluctuate with macro/business cycles going forward and that the 4-year cycle induced by the Halvings is most likely \"dead\". \n\nIt ultimately means that bitcoins will be accumulated and distributed dependent on the dominant macro regime (expansion/boom vs contraction/recession) which will create short-term up- and downswings in price in a risk-on/risk-off fashion. \n\n𝗧𝗟;𝗗𝗥: \n- The \"Great Wealth Transfer\" ultimately means that prices will need to go higher - much higher - in order to incentivise further adoption of bitcoins and the transfer from early retail investors to institutional investors . \n\n- Further adoption by institutional investors means that bitcoin has become a true \"macro asset\" implying that future bull & bear cycles will increasingly be determined by macro/business cycles and not so much by the Halving. \n\nThanks for reading! \n\nHope you enjoyed this thread! Appreciated you being here. \n\nFollow me 👉 @Andre_Dragosch for more institutional-grade #bitcoin & macro insights. \n\nStay humble and stack Sats,\nAndré","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,39],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1308378346464698368","name":"Rob Wallace │ Bitcoin News","screen_name":"_Rob_Wallace","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"_Rob_Wallace","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983030391456801241","view_count":42,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761626262000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"757546828497911808","conversation_id_str":"1982937015516635357","full_text":"@_Rob_Wallace Looking good! 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𝚒𝚗 𝚍𝚘𝚞𝚋𝚝, 𝚣𝚘𝚘𝚖 𝚘𝚞𝚝.\"\n\nThis is one of the key charts from our latest @BitwiseInvest Quarterly Market Review prepared by my US research colleagues @RasterlyRock, @Matt_Hougan, @singularity7x and others. \n\nIt can explain the ongoing adoption trend and even what's special about the current cycle of #bitcoin. \nData were provided courtesy of @river.\n\n[Seriously - you should bookmark this 🧵 for later review]. \n\n𝗨𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 \"𝗚𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗵 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗳𝗲𝗿\"\n\nThe key to understand is that #bitcoins are being distributed from early retail investors (\"individuals\") to institutional investors like funds/ETPs, businesses, and also governments. \n\nUnlike other traditional asset classes in history, #bitcoin adoption started with retail investors such as cypherpunks and early adopters first before institutional investors like family offices, fund managers, ETFs et al. started to do their first investment into #bitcoin. \n\nEven today, the percentage of retail* investors is still ~66%. That means the vast majority of bitcoins is still controlled by non-institutional investors (see tile chart above)!\n\nIn contrast, the very latest data from the 13F filings in the US reveal that the percentage allocations by institutional investors in traditional asset classes is significantly higher. \n\nTake a look at the % of major tradfi ETF institutional holdings:\n- iShares 20yr+ Treasury Bond ETF ($TLT) - 79% \n- SPDR S&P 500 ETF ($SPY) - 58%\n- SPDR Gold shares ETF ($GLD) - 36%\n\nCompare this to the latest insights from the BofA's global fund manager survey which revealed that the average allocation into cryptoassets (which includes #bitcoin but also other cryptoassets) is only 0.4% ‼️\n\n(BTW - IBIT's institutional holdings are just at 26%...)\n\n👉So, \"we're still early\" as they say in terms of institutional adoption. \n\nNonetheless, there is a significant wealth transfer from retail to institutional investors happening as we speak. \n\nYou will be surprised how many implications you can derive from this wealth transfer from early retail HODLers to institutional investors:\n\n𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗱𝗼𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗖𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗲. \n\n1⃣𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱.\nStating the obvious first, this transfer doesn't happen overnight. It is a longer-term trend. \n\nThe truth is: The majority of bitcoins are illiquid and are being \"HODLed\". \n\nOnly ~14.5% of $BTC supply is held on exchanges like Coinbase or Binance and is relatively liquid while the rest is being stored off exchange and remains illiquid. \n\n#Bitcoin wealth won't be transferred without any economic incentive. \n\nMany early adopters have a psychological (e.g. 1M USD per $BTC) or economic threshold (e.g. in order to \"buy a house\" etc) when to sell their precious bitcoins which is significantly higher than the current market price of around 115k USD. \n\nIn order to attract these illiquid coins to the market (i.e. exchanges), the price of #bitcoin will need to rise significantly. \n\nIn the process, #bitcoin adoption will broaden and more people will get exposure to the asset class as ETF holdings are held in a fiduciary matter for millions of individual investors. Treasury company shares are also being held by 100,000s of different investors. \n\nAt the time of writing, institutional investors (ETPs & treasury companies) hold around 12.5% of the BTC supply - and counting (fast). \n\n2⃣𝗖𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗲. \nProbably most analysts would agree that #Bitcoin's earlier bull & bear cycles used to be determined by the Halvings which happened every 210,000 blocks (~4 years) and halved the amount of bitcoin's produced by -50% (hence \"halving\"). \n\nHowever, the influence of these Halvings has been declining gradually over time with each successive halving, both in absolute terms and relative to the supply already in circulation. \n\nWith increasing institutional adoption and dominance of demand the effect of the Halving has clearly diminished. \n\nIn 2025, the demand from institutions has outsized the supply deficit induced by the halving by a factor of around ~7 x times already! \n\nIn the process, the relative importance of the traditional macro cycle has increased - #Bitcoin has become a true \"macro asset\". \n\nThis is also what our own quantitative analyses suggest - 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝟴𝟬% 𝗼𝗳 𝗯𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻'𝘀 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘃𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝟲 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵𝘀 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀, 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼 𝗳𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀. Less than 5% by coin-specific factors. 🤯\n\nHowever, the dominance of macro factors also implies that bitcoin's bull & bear cycles will fluctuate with macro/business cycles going forward and that the 4-year cycle induced by the Halvings is most likely \"dead\". \n\nIt ultimately means that bitcoins will be accumulated and distributed dependent on the dominant macro regime (expansion/boom vs contraction/recession) which will create short-term up- and downswings in price in a risk-on/risk-off fashion. \n\n𝗧𝗟;𝗗𝗥: \n- The \"Great Wealth Transfer\" ultimately means that prices will need to go higher - much higher - in order to incentivise further adoption of bitcoins and the transfer from early retail investors to institutional investors . \n\n- Further adoption by institutional investors means that bitcoin has become a true \"macro asset\" implying that future bull & bear cycles will increasingly be determined by macro/business cycles and not so much by the Halving. \n\nThanks for reading! \n\nHope you enjoyed this thread! Appreciated you being here. \n\nFollow me 👉 @Andre_Dragosch for more institutional-grade #bitcoin & macro insights. \n\nStay humble and stack Sats,\nAndré","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,39],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1308378346464698368","name":"Rob Wallace │ Bitcoin News","screen_name":"_Rob_Wallace","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"_Rob_Wallace","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983030391456801241","view_count":42,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761626262000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"757546828497911808","conversation_id_str":"1982937015516635357","full_text":"@_Rob_Wallace Looking good! 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𝚒𝚗 𝚍𝚘𝚞𝚋𝚝, 𝚣𝚘𝚘𝚖 𝚘𝚞𝚝.\"\n\nThis is one of the key charts from our latest @BitwiseInvest Quarterly Market Review prepared by my US research colleagues @RasterlyRock, @Matt_Hougan, @singularity7x and others. \n\nIt can explain the ongoing adoption trend and even what's special about the current cycle of #bitcoin. \nData were provided courtesy of @river.\n\n[Seriously - you should bookmark this 🧵 for later review]. \n\n𝗨𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 \"𝗚𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗵 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗳𝗲𝗿\"\n\nThe key to understand is that #bitcoins are being distributed from early retail investors (\"individuals\") to institutional investors like funds/ETPs, businesses, and also governments. \n\nUnlike other traditional asset classes in history, #bitcoin adoption started with retail investors such as cypherpunks and early adopters first before institutional investors like family offices, fund managers, ETFs et al. started to do their first investment into #bitcoin. \n\nEven today, the percentage of retail* investors is still ~66%. That means the vast majority of bitcoins is still controlled by non-institutional investors (see tile chart above)!\n\nIn contrast, the very latest data from the 13F filings in the US reveal that the percentage allocations by institutional investors in traditional asset classes is significantly higher. \n\nTake a look at the % of major tradfi ETF institutional holdings:\n- iShares 20yr+ Treasury Bond ETF ($TLT) - 79% \n- SPDR S&P 500 ETF ($SPY) - 58%\n- SPDR Gold shares ETF ($GLD) - 36%\n\nCompare this to the latest insights from the BofA's global fund manager survey which revealed that the average allocation into cryptoassets (which includes #bitcoin but also other cryptoassets) is only 0.4% ‼️\n\n(BTW - IBIT's institutional holdings are just at 26%...)\n\n👉So, \"we're still early\" as they say in terms of institutional adoption. \n\nNonetheless, there is a significant wealth transfer from retail to institutional investors happening as we speak. \n\nYou will be surprised how many implications you can derive from this wealth transfer from early retail HODLers to institutional investors:\n\n𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗱𝗼𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗖𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗲. \n\n1⃣𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱.\nStating the obvious first, this transfer doesn't happen overnight. It is a longer-term trend. \n\nThe truth is: The majority of bitcoins are illiquid and are being \"HODLed\". \n\nOnly ~14.5% of $BTC supply is held on exchanges like Coinbase or Binance and is relatively liquid while the rest is being stored off exchange and remains illiquid. \n\n#Bitcoin wealth won't be transferred without any economic incentive. \n\nMany early adopters have a psychological (e.g. 1M USD per $BTC) or economic threshold (e.g. in order to \"buy a house\" etc) when to sell their precious bitcoins which is significantly higher than the current market price of around 115k USD. \n\nIn order to attract these illiquid coins to the market (i.e. exchanges), the price of #bitcoin will need to rise significantly. \n\nIn the process, #bitcoin adoption will broaden and more people will get exposure to the asset class as ETF holdings are held in a fiduciary matter for millions of individual investors. Treasury company shares are also being held by 100,000s of different investors. \n\nAt the time of writing, institutional investors (ETPs & treasury companies) hold around 12.5% of the BTC supply - and counting (fast). \n\n2⃣𝗖𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗲. \nProbably most analysts would agree that #Bitcoin's earlier bull & bear cycles used to be determined by the Halvings which happened every 210,000 blocks (~4 years) and halved the amount of bitcoin's produced by -50% (hence \"halving\"). \n\nHowever, the influence of these Halvings has been declining gradually over time with each successive halving, both in absolute terms and relative to the supply already in circulation. \n\nWith increasing institutional adoption and dominance of demand the effect of the Halving has clearly diminished. \n\nIn 2025, the demand from institutions has outsized the supply deficit induced by the halving by a factor of around ~7 x times already! \n\nIn the process, the relative importance of the traditional macro cycle has increased - #Bitcoin has become a true \"macro asset\". \n\nThis is also what our own quantitative analyses suggest - 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝟴𝟬% 𝗼𝗳 𝗯𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻'𝘀 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘃𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝟲 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵𝘀 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀, 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼 𝗳𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀. Less than 5% by coin-specific factors. 🤯\n\nHowever, the dominance of macro factors also implies that bitcoin's bull & bear cycles will fluctuate with macro/business cycles going forward and that the 4-year cycle induced by the Halvings is most likely \"dead\". \n\nIt ultimately means that bitcoins will be accumulated and distributed dependent on the dominant macro regime (expansion/boom vs contraction/recession) which will create short-term up- and downswings in price in a risk-on/risk-off fashion. \n\n𝗧𝗟;𝗗𝗥: \n- The \"Great Wealth Transfer\" ultimately means that prices will need to go higher - much higher - in order to incentivise further adoption of bitcoins and the transfer from early retail investors to institutional investors . \n\n- Further adoption by institutional investors means that bitcoin has become a true \"macro asset\" implying that future bull & bear cycles will increasingly be determined by macro/business cycles and not so much by the Halving. \n\nThanks for reading! \n\nHope you enjoyed this thread! Appreciated you being here. \n\nFollow me 👉 @Andre_Dragosch for more institutional-grade #bitcoin & macro insights. \n\nStay humble and stack Sats,\nAndré","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,39],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1308378346464698368","name":"Rob Wallace │ Bitcoin News","screen_name":"_Rob_Wallace","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"_Rob_Wallace","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983030391456801241","view_count":42,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761626262000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"757546828497911808","conversation_id_str":"1982937015516635357","full_text":"@_Rob_Wallace Looking good! 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𝚒𝚗 𝚍𝚘𝚞𝚋𝚝, 𝚣𝚘𝚘𝚖 𝚘𝚞𝚝.\"\n\nThis is one of the key charts from our latest @BitwiseInvest Quarterly Market Review prepared by my US research colleagues @RasterlyRock, @Matt_Hougan, @singularity7x and others. \n\nIt can explain the ongoing adoption trend and even what's special about the current cycle of #bitcoin. \nData were provided courtesy of @river.\n\n[Seriously - you should bookmark this 🧵 for later review]. \n\n𝗨𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 \"𝗚𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗵 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗳𝗲𝗿\"\n\nThe key to understand is that #bitcoins are being distributed from early retail investors (\"individuals\") to institutional investors like funds/ETPs, businesses, and also governments. \n\nUnlike other traditional asset classes in history, #bitcoin adoption started with retail investors such as cypherpunks and early adopters first before institutional investors like family offices, fund managers, ETFs et al. started to do their first investment into #bitcoin. \n\nEven today, the percentage of retail* investors is still ~66%. That means the vast majority of bitcoins is still controlled by non-institutional investors (see tile chart above)!\n\nIn contrast, the very latest data from the 13F filings in the US reveal that the percentage allocations by institutional investors in traditional asset classes is significantly higher. \n\nTake a look at the % of major tradfi ETF institutional holdings:\n- iShares 20yr+ Treasury Bond ETF ($TLT) - 79% \n- SPDR S&P 500 ETF ($SPY) - 58%\n- SPDR Gold shares ETF ($GLD) - 36%\n\nCompare this to the latest insights from the BofA's global fund manager survey which revealed that the average allocation into cryptoassets (which includes #bitcoin but also other cryptoassets) is only 0.4% ‼️\n\n(BTW - IBIT's institutional holdings are just at 26%...)\n\n👉So, \"we're still early\" as they say in terms of institutional adoption. \n\nNonetheless, there is a significant wealth transfer from retail to institutional investors happening as we speak. \n\nYou will be surprised how many implications you can derive from this wealth transfer from early retail HODLers to institutional investors:\n\n𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗱𝗼𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗖𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗲. \n\n1⃣𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱.\nStating the obvious first, this transfer doesn't happen overnight. It is a longer-term trend. \n\nThe truth is: The majority of bitcoins are illiquid and are being \"HODLed\". \n\nOnly ~14.5% of $BTC supply is held on exchanges like Coinbase or Binance and is relatively liquid while the rest is being stored off exchange and remains illiquid. \n\n#Bitcoin wealth won't be transferred without any economic incentive. \n\nMany early adopters have a psychological (e.g. 1M USD per $BTC) or economic threshold (e.g. in order to \"buy a house\" etc) when to sell their precious bitcoins which is significantly higher than the current market price of around 115k USD. \n\nIn order to attract these illiquid coins to the market (i.e. exchanges), the price of #bitcoin will need to rise significantly. \n\nIn the process, #bitcoin adoption will broaden and more people will get exposure to the asset class as ETF holdings are held in a fiduciary matter for millions of individual investors. Treasury company shares are also being held by 100,000s of different investors. \n\nAt the time of writing, institutional investors (ETPs & treasury companies) hold around 12.5% of the BTC supply - and counting (fast). \n\n2⃣𝗖𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗲. \nProbably most analysts would agree that #Bitcoin's earlier bull & bear cycles used to be determined by the Halvings which happened every 210,000 blocks (~4 years) and halved the amount of bitcoin's produced by -50% (hence \"halving\"). \n\nHowever, the influence of these Halvings has been declining gradually over time with each successive halving, both in absolute terms and relative to the supply already in circulation. \n\nWith increasing institutional adoption and dominance of demand the effect of the Halving has clearly diminished. \n\nIn 2025, the demand from institutions has outsized the supply deficit induced by the halving by a factor of around ~7 x times already! \n\nIn the process, the relative importance of the traditional macro cycle has increased - #Bitcoin has become a true \"macro asset\". \n\nThis is also what our own quantitative analyses suggest - 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝟴𝟬% 𝗼𝗳 𝗯𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻'𝘀 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘃𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝟲 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵𝘀 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀, 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼 𝗳𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀. Less than 5% by coin-specific factors. 🤯\n\nHowever, the dominance of macro factors also implies that bitcoin's bull & bear cycles will fluctuate with macro/business cycles going forward and that the 4-year cycle induced by the Halvings is most likely \"dead\". \n\nIt ultimately means that bitcoins will be accumulated and distributed dependent on the dominant macro regime (expansion/boom vs contraction/recession) which will create short-term up- and downswings in price in a risk-on/risk-off fashion. \n\n𝗧𝗟;𝗗𝗥: \n- The \"Great Wealth Transfer\" ultimately means that prices will need to go higher - much higher - in order to incentivise further adoption of bitcoins and the transfer from early retail investors to institutional investors . \n\n- Further adoption by institutional investors means that bitcoin has become a true \"macro asset\" implying that future bull & bear cycles will increasingly be determined by macro/business cycles and not so much by the Halving. \n\nThanks for reading! \n\nHope you enjoyed this thread! Appreciated you being here. \n\nFollow me 👉 @Andre_Dragosch for more institutional-grade #bitcoin & macro insights. \n\nStay humble and stack Sats,\nAndré","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,39],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1308378346464698368","name":"Rob Wallace │ Bitcoin News","screen_name":"_Rob_Wallace","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"_Rob_Wallace","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983030391456801241","view_count":42,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761626262000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"757546828497911808","conversation_id_str":"1982937015516635357","full_text":"@_Rob_Wallace Looking good! 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𝚒𝚗 𝚍𝚘𝚞𝚋𝚝, 𝚣𝚘𝚘𝚖 𝚘𝚞𝚝.\"\n\nThis is one of the key charts from our latest @BitwiseInvest Quarterly Market Review prepared by my US research colleagues @RasterlyRock, @Matt_Hougan, @singularity7x and others. \n\nIt can explain the ongoing adoption trend and even what's special about the current cycle of #bitcoin. \nData were provided courtesy of @river.\n\n[Seriously - you should bookmark this 🧵 for later review]. \n\n𝗨𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 \"𝗚𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗵 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗳𝗲𝗿\"\n\nThe key to understand is that #bitcoins are being distributed from early retail investors (\"individuals\") to institutional investors like funds/ETPs, businesses, and also governments. \n\nUnlike other traditional asset classes in history, #bitcoin adoption started with retail investors such as cypherpunks and early adopters first before institutional investors like family offices, fund managers, ETFs et al. started to do their first investment into #bitcoin. \n\nEven today, the percentage of retail* investors is still ~66%. That means the vast majority of bitcoins is still controlled by non-institutional investors (see tile chart above)!\n\nIn contrast, the very latest data from the 13F filings in the US reveal that the percentage allocations by institutional investors in traditional asset classes is significantly higher. \n\nTake a look at the % of major tradfi ETF institutional holdings:\n- iShares 20yr+ Treasury Bond ETF ($TLT) - 79% \n- SPDR S&P 500 ETF ($SPY) - 58%\n- SPDR Gold shares ETF ($GLD) - 36%\n\nCompare this to the latest insights from the BofA's global fund manager survey which revealed that the average allocation into cryptoassets (which includes #bitcoin but also other cryptoassets) is only 0.4% ‼️\n\n(BTW - IBIT's institutional holdings are just at 26%...)\n\n👉So, \"we're still early\" as they say in terms of institutional adoption. \n\nNonetheless, there is a significant wealth transfer from retail to institutional investors happening as we speak. \n\nYou will be surprised how many implications you can derive from this wealth transfer from early retail HODLers to institutional investors:\n\n𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗱𝗼𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗖𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗲. \n\n1⃣𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱.\nStating the obvious first, this transfer doesn't happen overnight. It is a longer-term trend. \n\nThe truth is: The majority of bitcoins are illiquid and are being \"HODLed\". \n\nOnly ~14.5% of $BTC supply is held on exchanges like Coinbase or Binance and is relatively liquid while the rest is being stored off exchange and remains illiquid. \n\n#Bitcoin wealth won't be transferred without any economic incentive. \n\nMany early adopters have a psychological (e.g. 1M USD per $BTC) or economic threshold (e.g. in order to \"buy a house\" etc) when to sell their precious bitcoins which is significantly higher than the current market price of around 115k USD. \n\nIn order to attract these illiquid coins to the market (i.e. exchanges), the price of #bitcoin will need to rise significantly. \n\nIn the process, #bitcoin adoption will broaden and more people will get exposure to the asset class as ETF holdings are held in a fiduciary matter for millions of individual investors. Treasury company shares are also being held by 100,000s of different investors. \n\nAt the time of writing, institutional investors (ETPs & treasury companies) hold around 12.5% of the BTC supply - and counting (fast). \n\n2⃣𝗖𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗲. \nProbably most analysts would agree that #Bitcoin's earlier bull & bear cycles used to be determined by the Halvings which happened every 210,000 blocks (~4 years) and halved the amount of bitcoin's produced by -50% (hence \"halving\"). \n\nHowever, the influence of these Halvings has been declining gradually over time with each successive halving, both in absolute terms and relative to the supply already in circulation. \n\nWith increasing institutional adoption and dominance of demand the effect of the Halving has clearly diminished. \n\nIn 2025, the demand from institutions has outsized the supply deficit induced by the halving by a factor of around ~7 x times already! \n\nIn the process, the relative importance of the traditional macro cycle has increased - #Bitcoin has become a true \"macro asset\". \n\nThis is also what our own quantitative analyses suggest - 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝟴𝟬% 𝗼𝗳 𝗯𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻'𝘀 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘃𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝟲 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵𝘀 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀, 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼 𝗳𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀. Less than 5% by coin-specific factors. 🤯\n\nHowever, the dominance of macro factors also implies that bitcoin's bull & bear cycles will fluctuate with macro/business cycles going forward and that the 4-year cycle induced by the Halvings is most likely \"dead\". \n\nIt ultimately means that bitcoins will be accumulated and distributed dependent on the dominant macro regime (expansion/boom vs contraction/recession) which will create short-term up- and downswings in price in a risk-on/risk-off fashion. \n\n𝗧𝗟;𝗗𝗥: \n- The \"Great Wealth Transfer\" ultimately means that prices will need to go higher - much higher - in order to incentivise further adoption of bitcoins and the transfer from early retail investors to institutional investors . \n\n- Further adoption by institutional investors means that bitcoin has become a true \"macro asset\" implying that future bull & bear cycles will increasingly be determined by macro/business cycles and not so much by the Halving. \n\nThanks for reading! \n\nHope you enjoyed this thread! Appreciated you being here. \n\nFollow me 👉 @Andre_Dragosch for more institutional-grade #bitcoin & macro insights. \n\nStay humble and stack Sats,\nAndré","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,39],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1308378346464698368","name":"Rob Wallace │ Bitcoin News","screen_name":"_Rob_Wallace","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"_Rob_Wallace","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983030391456801241","view_count":42,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761626262000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"757546828497911808","conversation_id_str":"1982937015516635357","full_text":"@_Rob_Wallace Looking good! 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