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There's no way that just happened. CME Group CEO Terrence Duffy just flipped off Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan during the SEC-CFTC roundtable. This is wild.

If you're a young guy in your early 20s, trade prediction markets. Go into debt if you have to. So many opportunities to learn and make money. Like this one: Buy Cuomo YES on Polymarket at 5.5c Buy Cuomo No on Kalshi at 93c Lock in profits on a market that will likely resolve tonight. Its a pretty liquid market, I'm surprised to see this large of a spread. Any idea why it's there? Is there a difference in the rules?

I’m excited to share that Melee has raised $3.5M to build the next generation of prediction markets. We call them Viral Markets. Anyone will be able to create a prediction market or opinion market on any topic and earn a % of the volume they generate. This creates a system where anyone, whether they have an existing audience or not, can make money by asking questions about events and viral moments. Traders not only speculate on the likelihood of an outcome, but also the growth in popularity of a market. This gives users the opportunity to make massive returns by being both early to a market and selecting the right outcome. Thank you to everyone that has helped to get Melee to this point, including everyone on the Melee team, all who have given feedback, and anyone who has given us the time to pitch and refine the product. If you’re interested to trade, create, or build on Melee, please reach out.

Prediction Markets are the Chat GPT moment for crypto

The Prediction Market Supercycle The first and most powerful form of PMF in crypto is speculation. Prediction markets are the best form of speculation. Once improved, all speculation will move to prediction markets, and all attention

Does Polymarket have wash trading? I read the paper so you don't have to. Here are the highlights (my takes are at the end): 1. An estimated 25% of Polymarket's volume all-time resembles wash trading. - Reached a high of 60% of total weekly exchange volume in December 2024 - Reached a low of 5% of volume in May 2025 - 14% of wallets on the platform were flagged Volume by Category: Crypto - 3% Politics - 12% Elections - 17% Sports - 45% 2. Wash trading activity has spiked in anticipation of the $POLY token After the Polymarket token was teased on October 8th, daily volume jumped up substantially. In that same time, the amount of wash trading identified also rose. 3. Most volume was done on low-value, low probability contracts. The center chart depicting the Average buy/sell price shows the majority of wash trading happens in contracts that are near $0. This is a common strategy that allows users to get a high notional volume without risking much money. If a user buys 1000 contracts that are worth .1c ($0.001) each, they are spending $1. But because each contract can resolve to $1, the the notional value of the contracts they traded is $1000. There are many legitimate trading strategies that can be done in low probability outcomes, but if you're an airdrop farmer who is optimizing for notional volume, this is the place to be. My takes: 1. Thats it? 25% of the volume being from wash trading means 75% of the billions of dollars transacted on Polymarket are real users taking real positions. 2. Fees solve all What matters isn't how much volume is on your platform, but how much volume is monetizable. Right now there is no cost to trading. Once fees are implemented, the ratio of real volume to farming volume will improve. A fee of almost any size on low value contracts would eliminate that strategy immediately, addressing a large portion of this volume. 3. Headlines make it seem worse than it is Maybe crypto has poisoned my view on this, but typically wash trading is done as a deliberate attempt to massively overstate volume by a malicious team. There's no indication the polymarket team was the one creating this volume or asking others to do this volume. Beyond that, polymarket's volume could be 75% of what it is today and the market's interpretation of their success would likely be unchanged. When there is an incentive to get volume, users will attempt to get volume. Every platform has some form of incentive for volume either via points/token or direct rebates for providing liquidity that help improve the experience for real users on the platform. Overall, wash trading of course is an issue and should not be considered when calculating a platform's volume. But most people's kneejerk reaction to the headlines will probably overstate the size of polymarket's issue in particular. Outstanding questions: How should volume on prediction markets be calculated? Wash trading and volume farming should be excluded, but its difficult to identify them with a high degree of certainty. More importantly, is notional volume the right way to calculate it? As an industry I believe notional volume should be replaced by considering the real amount of money a user is transacting, not the potential value of their contracts. I'd love to hear your reactions to the paper and your thoughts on how volume on prediction markets can be calculated more accurately.

Like this post if you like prediction markets. I'm building an army.

In our world we say LM

If you're into prediction markets, drop a comment. I want to follow more of you.

Prediction markets are the next memecoins. People just want a place to speculate. Prediction markets do it better.

Polymarket badge son or Kalshi badge daughter

I might regret this, but shill me your favorite prediction market project.

What is this V thing?

I’m excited to share that Melee has raised $3.5M to build the next generation of prediction markets. We call them Viral Markets. Anyone will be able to create a prediction market or opinion market on any topic and earn a % of the volume they generate. This creates a system where anyone, whether they have an existing audience or not, can make money by asking questions about events and viral moments. Traders not only speculate on the likelihood of an outcome, but also the growth in popularity of a market. This gives users the opportunity to make massive returns by being both early to a market and selecting the right outcome. Thank you to everyone that has helped to get Melee to this point, including everyone on the Melee team, all who have given feedback, and anyone who has given us the time to pitch and refine the product. If you’re interested to trade, create, or build on Melee, please reach out.

What is this V thing?

If you're into prediction markets, drop a comment. I want to follow more of you.

I might regret this, but shill me your favorite prediction market project.

There's no way that just happened. CME Group CEO Terrence Duffy just flipped off Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan during the SEC-CFTC roundtable. This is wild.

The Prediction Market Supercycle The first and most powerful form of PMF in crypto is speculation. Prediction markets are the best form of speculation. Once improved, all speculation will move to prediction markets, and all attention

Prediction Markets are the Chat GPT moment for crypto

In our world we say LM

Ø follow Ø

Does Polymarket have wash trading? I read the paper so you don't have to. Here are the highlights (my takes are at the end): 1. An estimated 25% of Polymarket's volume all-time resembles wash trading. - Reached a high of 60% of total weekly exchange volume in December 2024 - Reached a low of 5% of volume in May 2025 - 14% of wallets on the platform were flagged Volume by Category: Crypto - 3% Politics - 12% Elections - 17% Sports - 45% 2. Wash trading activity has spiked in anticipation of the $POLY token After the Polymarket token was teased on October 8th, daily volume jumped up substantially. In that same time, the amount of wash trading identified also rose. 3. Most volume was done on low-value, low probability contracts. The center chart depicting the Average buy/sell price shows the majority of wash trading happens in contracts that are near $0. This is a common strategy that allows users to get a high notional volume without risking much money. If a user buys 1000 contracts that are worth .1c ($0.001) each, they are spending $1. But because each contract can resolve to $1, the the notional value of the contracts they traded is $1000. There are many legitimate trading strategies that can be done in low probability outcomes, but if you're an airdrop farmer who is optimizing for notional volume, this is the place to be. My takes: 1. Thats it? 25% of the volume being from wash trading means 75% of the billions of dollars transacted on Polymarket are real users taking real positions. 2. Fees solve all What matters isn't how much volume is on your platform, but how much volume is monetizable. Right now there is no cost to trading. Once fees are implemented, the ratio of real volume to farming volume will improve. A fee of almost any size on low value contracts would eliminate that strategy immediately, addressing a large portion of this volume. 3. Headlines make it seem worse than it is Maybe crypto has poisoned my view on this, but typically wash trading is done as a deliberate attempt to massively overstate volume by a malicious team. There's no indication the polymarket team was the one creating this volume or asking others to do this volume. Beyond that, polymarket's volume could be 75% of what it is today and the market's interpretation of their success would likely be unchanged. When there is an incentive to get volume, users will attempt to get volume. Every platform has some form of incentive for volume either via points/token or direct rebates for providing liquidity that help improve the experience for real users on the platform. Overall, wash trading of course is an issue and should not be considered when calculating a platform's volume. But most people's kneejerk reaction to the headlines will probably overstate the size of polymarket's issue in particular. Outstanding questions: How should volume on prediction markets be calculated? Wash trading and volume farming should be excluded, but its difficult to identify them with a high degree of certainty. More importantly, is notional volume the right way to calculate it? As an industry I believe notional volume should be replaced by considering the real amount of money a user is transacting, not the potential value of their contracts. I'd love to hear your reactions to the paper and your thoughts on how volume on prediction markets can be calculated more accurately.

If you're a young guy in your early 20s, trade prediction markets. Go into debt if you have to. So many opportunities to learn and make money. Like this one: Buy Cuomo YES on Polymarket at 5.5c Buy Cuomo No on Kalshi at 93c Lock in profits on a market that will likely resolve tonight. Its a pretty liquid market, I'm surprised to see this large of a spread. Any idea why it's there? Is there a difference in the rules?

I want to do some more writing on prediction markets. What topics should I cover?

Prediction markets are the next memecoins. People just want a place to speculate. Prediction markets do it better.