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🧵 Prediction markets have entered their growth era! Nov’24: 9 notable protocols Oct’25: 83 --> that’s a freaking +822% increase Only 21% of PM protocols have a token (18/83) - lots of upside left for ecosystem tokenization @base leads now (10+ protocols) thanks to cheap EVM txs, @coinbase distribution, and easy liquidity | composability @solana is next (9+) on meme-social-culture, and sub-second UX that makes micro-bets viable gonna write a full compare of 2024 vs 2025 plus my take on the most interesting PM types Special thanks to @predictionindex for the all-in-one framework tag folks may be interested in it: @shayne_coplan, @MatthewModabber, @j0hnwang, @0x_ultra, @mansourtarek_, @DeFiMinty, @_charlienoyes, @NTmoney, @dylangbane, @AlanaDLevin, @0xNairolf, @gdkairos, @beast_ico, @Carlitoswa_y, @Dyor_0x, @PixOnChain, @cjhtech, @dimahorshkov, @Atlantislq, @aulijk

The Prediction Market Boom and Why the Timing is Right Driven by strong revenue potential, a friendlier regulatory climate under pro-crypto political leadership, and growing mainstream appeal, this narrative is cresting at an ideal time. @Polymarket, one

Why I'm Bullish on GondorFI Gondor might be the best thing to happen to traditional prediction markets Prediction markets like @Polymarket have always been exciting you can bet on elections, sports, or crypto prices and

A Market Crash, and What Prediction Markets Could Have Told Us Yesterday saw a shockwave no one fully priced in. Over $19B was liquidated after a surprise announcement: a 100% tariff on critical software imports from China The Economic Times Crypto dumped. Leverage blew up. Correlation curves redlined. It was the kind of crash that doesn’t just cut your PnL, it erodes confidence In times like these, the loudest markets break first. Exchanges freeze. Order books vacate. Oracle feeds lag. And for a window, no one can say where the price is, only where it was That’s when you realize how thin infrastructure lies between belief and chaos. PMs, by contrast, survived that collapse of signal. They don’t rely on real-time consensus pricing so much as aggregated expectations During the drop, odds on key questions like “Will BTC rebound this week?”, or “Will regulatory relief pass by year-end?” started shifting before exchanges stabilized Not because someone knew the bottom, but because they were betting on when belief would re-anchor This is a crucial distinction: prediction markets trade consensus re-entry, not just outcome They tell you when people expect markets to heal, not just when they’ll end up In a crisis, that’s exactly what heavy traders want - a signal of when the crowd is ready to crawl back in We’re also seeing structural shifts in the prediction space. @Polymarket is gearing to re-enter the U.S. by acquiring QCEX, a CFTC-licensed exchange Meanwhile, Kalshi is eating volume, recently surpassing @Polymarket in weekly activity within U.S. markets The rivalry is no longer just technical, it’s philosophical: one is building for compliance and depth; the other for speed, liquidity, and narrative velocity So what does all this mean for hedging in 2025? Traditional hedges (options, futures, stablecoins) still matter, but they fail when markets become unanchored. In those moments, prediction markets offer a new axis of risk: 1/ Hedging not just price, but belief decay 2/ Sizing positions based on probability shifts, not just volatility 3/ Watching conviction divergence as a leading indicator Imagine you’re long on an L2 protocol. Instead of just shielding with inverse tokens, you also go long “Probability L2 TVL drops 20%” or “Protocol security event occurs by Q4” (examples) These are conviction hedges, bets on failure modes that likely accompany crashes, not bets on the crash itself One of the most exciting evolutions is denominating these markets in native assets (e.g. BTC) instead of stablecoins A recent paper (by @FedorShabashev) explores how BTC-denominated prediction markets can reduce opportunity cost of converting, though the liquidity mechanics are tricky read more: arxiv.org/abs/2509.11990 But if successful, you’d hedge without ever leaving your base exposure, your insurance stays within your capital stack All of this puts you in a position to survive the next crash, not just in cash but in narrative When every chart freezes, odds still move. When everyone panics, conviction shifts first. Those who learn to trade belief velocity instead of just price direction will not only preserve capital - they’ll learn to decode the next crash before it starts That’s where prediction markets become a defensive weapon! P.S. I’m currently working on new research exploring how prediction and attention markets can evolve into hedging instruments ( tools not just for speculation, but for managing conviction risk itself) @TrendleFi, in particular, is where we’re testing how attention dynamics can become measurable, tradeable, and ultimately protective in moments when traditional signals break down If you’re researching similar questions or just want to exchange thoughts about this new layer of market intelligence, I’m always open to chat or collaborate on this piece dm open tag the folks might be interested in this piece in random order: @0xwondr, @HugoMartingale, @moneyfet1sh @tradefoxintern, @aaravXBT, @gdkairos, @0xNairolf, @SkylineETH, @j0hnwang, @0xTone, @tsybka_eth, @cjhtech, @0xd1namit, @AliHabbabeh, @0xDoraaa, @dedsec_hq, @dkposts, @ahbeaudry, @MatthewModabber, @NickPreszler, @0x_saurav, @PixOnChain, @FridayNtrades, @Atlantislq, @MatthewModabber, @primo_data, @aadvark89, @_charlienoyes, @shayne_coplan, @dylanorrelI, @mahdiofalltime, @NTmoney, @_alekslarsen.

gm everyone sweaty waiting @TrendleFi beta access

The comeback of PMs and why @Polymarket's $2B deal hits different PMs have always sat at the edge of crypto’s promise - fascinating, but fragile. A place where people don’t just bet, they express belief, skin in the game, collective intelligence. For years, they were treated like toys. “Cool concept, but not real finance” Now the owner of the New York Stock Exchange just poured $2 billion into one. That’s not a side story. That’s a signal shift. @Polymarket used to be the rebel child of crypto running wild, full of energy, constantly shadow-boxed by regulators. Then came the CFTC case in 2022 fines, U.S. users banned, liquidity drained. For most teams, that’s the end But they didn’t die They went silent, re-engineered the structure, and came back with a plan that actually listens to the system instead of fighting it Acquiring QCX, a fully licensed U.S. exchange and clearinghouse, wasn’t just a pivot - it was a chess move. They turned a regulatory wound into an asset When ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) the parent company of the NYSE decided to invest up to $2 billion in @Polymarket , it wasn’t about chasing a crypto fad. It was about data PMs produce some of the most honest data you can get, numbers that capture where humans collectively believe the future is headed ICE sells data for a living and @Polymarket gives them an entirely new signal layer: probabilities about elections, inflation, conflicts, technology, the climate (everything money touches) In a sense, ICE just bought access to the world’s most unfiltered prediction engine Why this matters ? If @Polymarket can legally operate in the U.S., it becomes the first prediction market with true regulatory depth and cultural resonance. It stops being a curiosity and starts being a data feed, a hedge instrument, even a social thermometer My take: This move changes the trajectory of the space. It’s a rare case where TradFi and crypto incentives actually align - one builds pipes, the other builds signal But let’s stay real: it’s still fragile Regulation can turn overnight, liquidity can vanish, and culture is hard to scale. @Polymarket is walking a tightrope between legitimacy and censorship If they balance it right, though they don’t just win. They literally redefine how we measure belief to @shayne_coplan @0xTone @MatthewModabber @Atlantislq @CarOnPolymarket @dylanorrelI @primo_data @TMathSports @shaykevin @mahdiofalltime @shampoo_capital @NTmoney @0xwondr @moneyfet1sh @DidiTrading

Another confirmation of my previous words PMs are hitting the streets and what else could this be if not mainstream bro ?! @j0hnwang won’t let me lie lol x.com/j0hnwang/statu…

gm @consensus2025 Hong Kong 📍 It was great meeting everyone I’ve been familiar with—amazing web3 contributors and chill folks. The past four days were filled with side events, degen discussions, afterparties, private dinners, and more.

🧵 Prediction markets have entered their growth era! Nov’24: 9 notable protocols Oct’25: 83 --> that’s a freaking +822% increase Only 21% of PM protocols have a token (18/83) - lots of upside left for ecosystem tokenization @base leads now (10+ protocols) thanks to cheap EVM txs, @coinbase distribution, and easy liquidity | composability @solana is next (9+) on meme-social-culture, and sub-second UX that makes micro-bets viable gonna write a full compare of 2024 vs 2025 plus my take on the most interesting PM types Special thanks to @predictionindex for the all-in-one framework tag folks may be interested in it: @shayne_coplan, @MatthewModabber, @j0hnwang, @0x_ultra, @mansourtarek_, @DeFiMinty, @_charlienoyes, @NTmoney, @dylangbane, @AlanaDLevin, @0xNairolf, @gdkairos, @beast_ico, @Carlitoswa_y, @Dyor_0x, @PixOnChain, @cjhtech, @dimahorshkov, @Atlantislq, @aulijk

The Prediction Market Boom and Why the Timing is Right Driven by strong revenue potential, a friendlier regulatory climate under pro-crypto political leadership, and growing mainstream appeal, this narrative is cresting at an ideal time. @Polymarket, one

gm everyone sweaty waiting @TrendleFi beta access

A Market Crash, and What Prediction Markets Could Have Told Us Yesterday saw a shockwave no one fully priced in. Over $19B was liquidated after a surprise announcement: a 100% tariff on critical software imports from China The Economic Times Crypto dumped. Leverage blew up. Correlation curves redlined. It was the kind of crash that doesn’t just cut your PnL, it erodes confidence In times like these, the loudest markets break first. Exchanges freeze. Order books vacate. Oracle feeds lag. And for a window, no one can say where the price is, only where it was That’s when you realize how thin infrastructure lies between belief and chaos. PMs, by contrast, survived that collapse of signal. They don’t rely on real-time consensus pricing so much as aggregated expectations During the drop, odds on key questions like “Will BTC rebound this week?”, or “Will regulatory relief pass by year-end?” started shifting before exchanges stabilized Not because someone knew the bottom, but because they were betting on when belief would re-anchor This is a crucial distinction: prediction markets trade consensus re-entry, not just outcome They tell you when people expect markets to heal, not just when they’ll end up In a crisis, that’s exactly what heavy traders want - a signal of when the crowd is ready to crawl back in We’re also seeing structural shifts in the prediction space. @Polymarket is gearing to re-enter the U.S. by acquiring QCEX, a CFTC-licensed exchange Meanwhile, Kalshi is eating volume, recently surpassing @Polymarket in weekly activity within U.S. markets The rivalry is no longer just technical, it’s philosophical: one is building for compliance and depth; the other for speed, liquidity, and narrative velocity So what does all this mean for hedging in 2025? Traditional hedges (options, futures, stablecoins) still matter, but they fail when markets become unanchored. In those moments, prediction markets offer a new axis of risk: 1/ Hedging not just price, but belief decay 2/ Sizing positions based on probability shifts, not just volatility 3/ Watching conviction divergence as a leading indicator Imagine you’re long on an L2 protocol. Instead of just shielding with inverse tokens, you also go long “Probability L2 TVL drops 20%” or “Protocol security event occurs by Q4” (examples) These are conviction hedges, bets on failure modes that likely accompany crashes, not bets on the crash itself One of the most exciting evolutions is denominating these markets in native assets (e.g. BTC) instead of stablecoins A recent paper (by @FedorShabashev) explores how BTC-denominated prediction markets can reduce opportunity cost of converting, though the liquidity mechanics are tricky read more: arxiv.org/abs/2509.11990 But if successful, you’d hedge without ever leaving your base exposure, your insurance stays within your capital stack All of this puts you in a position to survive the next crash, not just in cash but in narrative When every chart freezes, odds still move. When everyone panics, conviction shifts first. Those who learn to trade belief velocity instead of just price direction will not only preserve capital - they’ll learn to decode the next crash before it starts That’s where prediction markets become a defensive weapon! P.S. I’m currently working on new research exploring how prediction and attention markets can evolve into hedging instruments ( tools not just for speculation, but for managing conviction risk itself) @TrendleFi, in particular, is where we’re testing how attention dynamics can become measurable, tradeable, and ultimately protective in moments when traditional signals break down If you’re researching similar questions or just want to exchange thoughts about this new layer of market intelligence, I’m always open to chat or collaborate on this piece dm open tag the folks might be interested in this piece in random order: @0xwondr, @HugoMartingale, @moneyfet1sh @tradefoxintern, @aaravXBT, @gdkairos, @0xNairolf, @SkylineETH, @j0hnwang, @0xTone, @tsybka_eth, @cjhtech, @0xd1namit, @AliHabbabeh, @0xDoraaa, @dedsec_hq, @dkposts, @ahbeaudry, @MatthewModabber, @NickPreszler, @0x_saurav, @PixOnChain, @FridayNtrades, @Atlantislq, @MatthewModabber, @primo_data, @aadvark89, @_charlienoyes, @shayne_coplan, @dylanorrelI, @mahdiofalltime, @NTmoney, @_alekslarsen.

Why I'm Bullish on GondorFI Gondor might be the best thing to happen to traditional prediction markets Prediction markets like @Polymarket have always been exciting you can bet on elections, sports, or crypto prices and

Another confirmation of my previous words PMs are hitting the streets and what else could this be if not mainstream bro ?! @j0hnwang won’t let me lie lol x.com/j0hnwang/statu…

The comeback of PMs and why @Polymarket's $2B deal hits different PMs have always sat at the edge of crypto’s promise - fascinating, but fragile. A place where people don’t just bet, they express belief, skin in the game, collective intelligence. For years, they were treated like toys. “Cool concept, but not real finance” Now the owner of the New York Stock Exchange just poured $2 billion into one. That’s not a side story. That’s a signal shift. @Polymarket used to be the rebel child of crypto running wild, full of energy, constantly shadow-boxed by regulators. Then came the CFTC case in 2022 fines, U.S. users banned, liquidity drained. For most teams, that’s the end But they didn’t die They went silent, re-engineered the structure, and came back with a plan that actually listens to the system instead of fighting it Acquiring QCX, a fully licensed U.S. exchange and clearinghouse, wasn’t just a pivot - it was a chess move. They turned a regulatory wound into an asset When ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) the parent company of the NYSE decided to invest up to $2 billion in @Polymarket , it wasn’t about chasing a crypto fad. It was about data PMs produce some of the most honest data you can get, numbers that capture where humans collectively believe the future is headed ICE sells data for a living and @Polymarket gives them an entirely new signal layer: probabilities about elections, inflation, conflicts, technology, the climate (everything money touches) In a sense, ICE just bought access to the world’s most unfiltered prediction engine Why this matters ? If @Polymarket can legally operate in the U.S., it becomes the first prediction market with true regulatory depth and cultural resonance. It stops being a curiosity and starts being a data feed, a hedge instrument, even a social thermometer My take: This move changes the trajectory of the space. It’s a rare case where TradFi and crypto incentives actually align - one builds pipes, the other builds signal But let’s stay real: it’s still fragile Regulation can turn overnight, liquidity can vanish, and culture is hard to scale. @Polymarket is walking a tightrope between legitimacy and censorship If they balance it right, though they don’t just win. They literally redefine how we measure belief to @shayne_coplan @0xTone @MatthewModabber @Atlantislq @CarOnPolymarket @dylanorrelI @primo_data @TMathSports @shaykevin @mahdiofalltime @shampoo_capital @NTmoney @0xwondr @moneyfet1sh @DidiTrading

gm @consensus2025 Hong Kong 📍 It was great meeting everyone I’ve been familiar with—amazing web3 contributors and chill folks. The past four days were filled with side events, degen discussions, afterparties, private dinners, and more.