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The amount of Bitcoin needed to retire depends on the country you live in. This will be the first of a set of iterated analyses where I aim to answer: what is that average BTC stack size needed to retire in 2035 by country and age? Much of the world requires less than 1 coin.

🟠 How much Bitcoin does the average person need to retire? Here, its calculated and presented in radial charts 🍥 for 96 countries, ages 5 - 75, retiring in 2025 - 2055. - - - Based on each country’s average income level, adjusted for inflation (7% M2 expansion), and of course utilizing the highly reliable power law support line (5th percentile) as the BTC price model - check out the numbers based on your current age. Assumes: spending the actual Bitcoin for annual living expenses, and expecting to live to age 100. Highlights: 🍥MOST people in MOST countries still need less than 1 BTC for 2035 and out. 🍥If retiring this year, most countries need between 1-10 BTC. 🍥To retire in 2045 in BITCOIN-FRIENDLY countries: • El Salvador: 0.023 - 0.13 BTC • Switzerland: 0.26 - 1.5 BTC • Portugal: 0.07 - 0.39 BTC 🧵 2025 → 2055 Retirement visual thread 👇

Many have asked, and so here it is: FULL re-post of Smitty's Bitcoin Retirement Guide 📙 - - - Paginated, 600 DPI, $50k - $1M USD annual expense scenarios, assumed future 7% average annual inflation, and does not account for taxes. - - - BOOKMARK this so you can always refer back to it! Download, save, print-out, share 🧵👇

It's generally a bad idea to assume you can "retire on 0.1 or 0.01 Bitcoin."

The amount of Bitcoin you need to retire based on an inflation-adjusted $100k/year.

Both online and IRL, the question I continue to hear the most is "How much Bitcoin should I get?" I've spent some time putting a visual guide together that has helped some people close to me set stacking targets based on when they expect to retire. I hope this can also be helpful to you or the people you care about. - - - How it works: 1) Decide the age at which you would hypothetically retire—the point at which you could live off it for the rest of your life if necessary (not that you'd actually want to sell it). There are groups of lines that represent retirement ages 35, 45, 55, 65 and 75 for simplicity. 2) Determine (in 2025 dollars) the annual expenses you expect to live on starting in your year of retirement (these are denoted by the different colors dark grey --> Bitcoin orange, $50,000/yr --> $300,000/yr) 3) Find your current age on the x-axis 4) Find where the line colored according to your expected annual living cost, within the Retire@ line group of your retirement age target, intersects with the line of your current age The Bitcoin Needed Today (BTC) that corresponds with that point (see y-axis) is the minimum amount you should target. If the several groups of lines are too difficult to navigate, look below in this thread's replies to see the isolated Retire@ cases by age (35, 45, 55, 65, 75). Assumptions: 1) Future BTC price is projected by 50th percentile power law model. 2) Everyone dies at age 100. 3) Money supply (USD) grows at constant rate of 7%CAGR - meaning, whichever colored line you choose accounts for this 7% inflation from today to your retirement year, and beyond (ex: if you choose $100,000/year, in 2035 that would be about $196,715 - the model accounts for this). 4) The Bitcoin Needed Today amounts represent the minimum amount to prevent your BTC stack from hitting zero by age 100 - this is meant to be a minimum target, and therefore the individual should determine how much additional buffer BTC they should target. 5) Assumes a 'constant withdrawal rate in real 2025 USD terms', meaning the only increase year-year is to offset assumed 7% inflation. 6) Assumes no taxes will exist on withdrawals. Disclaimers: *this is NOT financial advice **this is NOT a suggestion that you should sell your Bitcoin

Sminston's Bitcoin Retirement Guide (Part Deux): Retirement Year Again helping to answer the question of "How much Bitcoin should I get?" A thread 🧵👇 . . . Instructions to use this version: 1) Find the chart in the replies (below) that corresponds to your expected annual living cost (in 2025 dollars) (e.g. $50k/year, $150k/year, etc.). 2) Find the year you expect to retire on the x-axis. 3) Find the colored, curved line (legend for reference) that corresponds to your *Current Age* (if it doesn't have your exact age, find the two closest to your current age and imagine a curved line drawn between them). 3) Trace up the vertical line from your retirement year to a colored line (if the colors don't help, just count the lines - there are only 8 of them). 4) Find where the vertical line of your retirement year meets your Current Age line - then trace this to the y-axis value they meet at. This y-axis value is your "Bitcoin Needed (BTC)" to retire that year. Whether you obtain that Bitcoin today, or in the future, by that date you need that amount of Bitcoin. . . . Assumptions are the same as the last Bitcoin Retirement Guide post: 1) Future BTC price is projected by 50th percentile regression power law model. 2) Everyone dies at age 100. 3) Money supply (USD) grows at constant rate of 7%CAGR - meaning, whichever colored line you choose accounts for this 7% inflation from today to your retirement year, and beyond (ex: if you choose $100,000/year, in 2035 that would be about $196,715 - the model accounts for this). 4) The Bitcoin Needed Today amounts represent the minimum amount to prevent your BTC stack from hitting zero by age 100 - this is meant to be a minimum target, and therefore the individual should determine how much additional buffer BTC they should target. 5) Assumes a 'constant withdrawal rate in real 2025 USD terms', meaning the only increase year-year is to offset assumed 7% inflation. 6) Assumes no taxes will exist on withdrawals. Disclaimers: *this is NOT financial advice **this is NOT a suggestion that you should sell your Bitcoin . . . $50,000/ year:

You're gonna have fun with this one; best to bookmark it and sit with it a bit. - - - 👉BTC FOLLOWS GOLD 👈 🏃‍♂️🏃‍♂️🏃‍♂️ Top two plots are residual plots based on the price plot underneath, for both Bitcoin and Gold - lets you visualize the fluctuations of both assets becoming more over- or under-valued. The curved arrows connect the ENDS of the gold bull runs to the BEGINNINGS of the Bitcoin bull runs - along with the approximate lag of BTC behind gold runs in days. Now look where we are now with gold. 🪙⏩🧡

Bitcoin spends roughly half its time in a bubble and half its time crab-crawling. If you separate the two, and you fit the lower half of the data to a power law, the correlation/accuracy is 99.73%. - - - Therefore, if you completely ignore the bubbles and pretend they will never exist again, BTC price would STILL be slated to hit $1M USD in December, 2034. Given that there ARE bubbles, and given that they are clearly less predictable and more poorly understood, expect that we will hit $1M sometime well before this, perhaps years ahead of 2034. $1M any time between 2029 and 2034 seems very reasonable. Don't be cute - keep stacking and realize the next 10 years is a prime window for wealth generation thanks to Bitcoin.

On average, how long would it take to stack 1 Bitcoin by dollar cost averaging (DCA) - starting from today, or any other July 31st? - - - Using past and future power law modeling, we can see that: 🟠 This is the LAST YEAR where it is possible to achieve a 1 Bitcoin stack in 10 YEARS if you DCA $250/ week ($1000/ month) starting NOW.... starting in 2026, it will take 15 years 🤯 🟠 In 2020, you could have stacked 1 BTC in 3 years with only $100/ week! 🤯 🟠 By the time Bitcoin hits $1M, as it is projected to in 2033, it will be virtually impossible to stack 1 Bitcoin via DCA with < $1000/ week allotments ($4000/ month), unless you're planning to do it for 30+ years 🤯 - - - Stack early, stack hard, friends! This is a moving train 🚂 Becoming a whole coiner will soon shift from being remotely achievable to the stuff of legend. NFA

🦀Let's check in on this Crab Crawl market🦀 Is it really that bad? Wow, big dip down to $105-106k... no doubt invokes bad feelings. BUT let's inject some perspective: this dip just brought us down to the -1 standard deviation based on data since late 2022 ('the last cycle bottom'). Look how many times we've visited this line before! Take heart - keep marching (or crawling 🦀). And keep HODLing!

Always remember: EVERYTHING goes to zero vs. Bitcoin.

First I showed you gold. Now, if you haven't seen this, pay attention 🔎 COPPER/GOLD RATIO 🥉/🏅 The peaks of this metric and BTC price are EXTREMELY well aligned, historically. As an important macroeconomic signal, when it trends down it signals a risk-off environment (what it is doing NOW), since higher copper (Cu) represents more industrial activity, and higher gold (Au) represents flight to safety. To me this is one of the most compelling signals out there. - - - We're going HIGHER, friends.

The most natural Top Zone for Bitcoin to run to this cycle - in Ol' Uncle Smitty's opinion. - - - The Decay Channel (OG version and updated/more bullish version driven by future predicted volatility) is telling us the range is: OCTOBER 1, 2025: $196,520 ↗️ $202,909 DECEMBER 31, 2025: $206,786 ↗️ $213,982 All based on the most empirical, elegant and historically predictive top model you will see in Bitcoin - the Decay Channel Model. Meanwhile, the Decay Oscillator is telling us we're not finished; hardly at 30% charged. We all know liquidity is about to come flooding back, and we all know how quickly we can shoot to 100% (the peak!). Pass it along.

The amount of Bitcoin needed to retire depends on the country you live in. This will be the first of a set of iterated analyses where I aim to answer: what is that average BTC stack size needed to retire in 2035 by country and age? Much of the world requires less than 1 coin.

It's generally a bad idea to assume you can "retire on 0.1 or 0.01 Bitcoin."

Both online and IRL, the question I continue to hear the most is "How much Bitcoin should I get?" I've spent some time putting a visual guide together that has helped some people close to me set stacking targets based on when they expect to retire. I hope this can also be helpful to you or the people you care about. - - - How it works: 1) Decide the age at which you would hypothetically retire—the point at which you could live off it for the rest of your life if necessary (not that you'd actually want to sell it). There are groups of lines that represent retirement ages 35, 45, 55, 65 and 75 for simplicity. 2) Determine (in 2025 dollars) the annual expenses you expect to live on starting in your year of retirement (these are denoted by the different colors dark grey --> Bitcoin orange, $50,000/yr --> $300,000/yr) 3) Find your current age on the x-axis 4) Find where the line colored according to your expected annual living cost, within the Retire@ line group of your retirement age target, intersects with the line of your current age The Bitcoin Needed Today (BTC) that corresponds with that point (see y-axis) is the minimum amount you should target. If the several groups of lines are too difficult to navigate, look below in this thread's replies to see the isolated Retire@ cases by age (35, 45, 55, 65, 75). Assumptions: 1) Future BTC price is projected by 50th percentile power law model. 2) Everyone dies at age 100. 3) Money supply (USD) grows at constant rate of 7%CAGR - meaning, whichever colored line you choose accounts for this 7% inflation from today to your retirement year, and beyond (ex: if you choose $100,000/year, in 2035 that would be about $196,715 - the model accounts for this). 4) The Bitcoin Needed Today amounts represent the minimum amount to prevent your BTC stack from hitting zero by age 100 - this is meant to be a minimum target, and therefore the individual should determine how much additional buffer BTC they should target. 5) Assumes a 'constant withdrawal rate in real 2025 USD terms', meaning the only increase year-year is to offset assumed 7% inflation. 6) Assumes no taxes will exist on withdrawals. Disclaimers: *this is NOT financial advice **this is NOT a suggestion that you should sell your Bitcoin

🟠 How much Bitcoin does the average person need to retire? Here, its calculated and presented in radial charts 🍥 for 96 countries, ages 5 - 75, retiring in 2025 - 2055. - - - Based on each country’s average income level, adjusted for inflation (7% M2 expansion), and of course utilizing the highly reliable power law support line (5th percentile) as the BTC price model - check out the numbers based on your current age. Assumes: spending the actual Bitcoin for annual living expenses, and expecting to live to age 100. Highlights: 🍥MOST people in MOST countries still need less than 1 BTC for 2035 and out. 🍥If retiring this year, most countries need between 1-10 BTC. 🍥To retire in 2045 in BITCOIN-FRIENDLY countries: • El Salvador: 0.023 - 0.13 BTC • Switzerland: 0.26 - 1.5 BTC • Portugal: 0.07 - 0.39 BTC 🧵 2025 → 2055 Retirement visual thread 👇

Many have asked, and so here it is: FULL re-post of Smitty's Bitcoin Retirement Guide 📙 - - - Paginated, 600 DPI, $50k - $1M USD annual expense scenarios, assumed future 7% average annual inflation, and does not account for taxes. - - - BOOKMARK this so you can always refer back to it! Download, save, print-out, share 🧵👇

Sminston's Bitcoin Retirement Guide (Part Deux): Retirement Year Again helping to answer the question of "How much Bitcoin should I get?" A thread 🧵👇 . . . Instructions to use this version: 1) Find the chart in the replies (below) that corresponds to your expected annual living cost (in 2025 dollars) (e.g. $50k/year, $150k/year, etc.). 2) Find the year you expect to retire on the x-axis. 3) Find the colored, curved line (legend for reference) that corresponds to your *Current Age* (if it doesn't have your exact age, find the two closest to your current age and imagine a curved line drawn between them). 3) Trace up the vertical line from your retirement year to a colored line (if the colors don't help, just count the lines - there are only 8 of them). 4) Find where the vertical line of your retirement year meets your Current Age line - then trace this to the y-axis value they meet at. This y-axis value is your "Bitcoin Needed (BTC)" to retire that year. Whether you obtain that Bitcoin today, or in the future, by that date you need that amount of Bitcoin. . . . Assumptions are the same as the last Bitcoin Retirement Guide post: 1) Future BTC price is projected by 50th percentile regression power law model. 2) Everyone dies at age 100. 3) Money supply (USD) grows at constant rate of 7%CAGR - meaning, whichever colored line you choose accounts for this 7% inflation from today to your retirement year, and beyond (ex: if you choose $100,000/year, in 2035 that would be about $196,715 - the model accounts for this). 4) The Bitcoin Needed Today amounts represent the minimum amount to prevent your BTC stack from hitting zero by age 100 - this is meant to be a minimum target, and therefore the individual should determine how much additional buffer BTC they should target. 5) Assumes a 'constant withdrawal rate in real 2025 USD terms', meaning the only increase year-year is to offset assumed 7% inflation. 6) Assumes no taxes will exist on withdrawals. Disclaimers: *this is NOT financial advice **this is NOT a suggestion that you should sell your Bitcoin . . . $50,000/ year:

Bitcoin spends roughly half its time in a bubble and half its time crab-crawling. If you separate the two, and you fit the lower half of the data to a power law, the correlation/accuracy is 99.73%. - - - Therefore, if you completely ignore the bubbles and pretend they will never exist again, BTC price would STILL be slated to hit $1M USD in December, 2034. Given that there ARE bubbles, and given that they are clearly less predictable and more poorly understood, expect that we will hit $1M sometime well before this, perhaps years ahead of 2034. $1M any time between 2029 and 2034 seems very reasonable. Don't be cute - keep stacking and realize the next 10 years is a prime window for wealth generation thanks to Bitcoin.

You're gonna have fun with this one; best to bookmark it and sit with it a bit. - - - 👉BTC FOLLOWS GOLD 👈 🏃‍♂️🏃‍♂️🏃‍♂️ Top two plots are residual plots based on the price plot underneath, for both Bitcoin and Gold - lets you visualize the fluctuations of both assets becoming more over- or under-valued. The curved arrows connect the ENDS of the gold bull runs to the BEGINNINGS of the Bitcoin bull runs - along with the approximate lag of BTC behind gold runs in days. Now look where we are now with gold. 🪙⏩🧡

First I showed you gold. Now, if you haven't seen this, pay attention 🔎 COPPER/GOLD RATIO 🥉/🏅 The peaks of this metric and BTC price are EXTREMELY well aligned, historically. As an important macroeconomic signal, when it trends down it signals a risk-off environment (what it is doing NOW), since higher copper (Cu) represents more industrial activity, and higher gold (Au) represents flight to safety. To me this is one of the most compelling signals out there. - - - We're going HIGHER, friends.

On average, how long would it take to stack 1 Bitcoin by dollar cost averaging (DCA) - starting from today, or any other July 31st? - - - Using past and future power law modeling, we can see that: 🟠 This is the LAST YEAR where it is possible to achieve a 1 Bitcoin stack in 10 YEARS if you DCA $250/ week ($1000/ month) starting NOW.... starting in 2026, it will take 15 years 🤯 🟠 In 2020, you could have stacked 1 BTC in 3 years with only $100/ week! 🤯 🟠 By the time Bitcoin hits $1M, as it is projected to in 2033, it will be virtually impossible to stack 1 Bitcoin via DCA with < $1000/ week allotments ($4000/ month), unless you're planning to do it for 30+ years 🤯 - - - Stack early, stack hard, friends! This is a moving train 🚂 Becoming a whole coiner will soon shift from being remotely achievable to the stuff of legend. NFA

This might be my favorite scenario. If you're 40, ~7 BTC will let you live on $1M/year (2025 dollars) when you retire at 65.

Always remember: EVERYTHING goes to zero vs. Bitcoin.

The amount of Bitcoin you need to retire based on an inflation-adjusted $100k/year.

🦀Let's check in on this Crab Crawl market🦀 Is it really that bad? Wow, big dip down to $105-106k... no doubt invokes bad feelings. BUT let's inject some perspective: this dip just brought us down to the -1 standard deviation based on data since late 2022 ('the last cycle bottom'). Look how many times we've visited this line before! Take heart - keep marching (or crawling 🦀). And keep HODLing!