陶瑞 TaoRay embodies the archetype of The Thought Leader, sharing deep, nuanced insights on politics, culture, and society with a clear personal philosophy centered on freedom and integrity. With a fearless voice and a prolific tweet record, TaoRay invites followers to challenge conventional thinking and engage critically with complex issues. His blend of historical knowledge, investment caution, and spiritual conviction makes his profile a hub for thoughtful discourse.
TaoRay tweets like an encyclopedia lost in a sea of memes—if facts were a sport, he’d be winning gold but might forget some followers just came for the popcorn and GIFs.
His biggest win is sparking widespread engagement—millions of views and thousands of likes on tweets that dissect complex geopolitical and cultural topics with both historical wisdom and personal conviction, a rare feat in today’s social media landscape.
His life purpose is to enlighten and inspire others by offering unvarnished truths and promoting intellectual freedom, encouraging people to embrace faith-driven values while navigating the modern world. He seeks to cultivate respect and understanding, helping followers develop confidence in their identity without succumbing to external pressures or false narratives.
TaoRay values freedom defined as the ability to refuse what one rejects, venerates historical and cultural authenticity, and holds a firm belief that true progress is rooted in faith and moral clarity. He rejects superficial assimilation or conformity, emphasizing respect for self-identity, intellectual rigor, and social responsibility through regular charitable actions.
His strengths lie in his thoughtful articulation, fearless engagement with sensitive topics, and ability to connect historical context with contemporary issues. TaoRay’s commitment to authenticity and faith foundations sets him apart as a compelling and trustworthy source.
On the flip side, his directness and serious tone might alienate more casual or entertainment-seeking followers, and his focus on deep, sometimes politically charged content risks polarizing his audience.
To grow his audience on X, TaoRay should consider incorporating more interactive formats like Q&A sessions or live discussions to balance seriousness with approachability. Leveraging concise, shareable insights combined with his signature depth could attract wider engagement while maintaining his thought leadership.
A fun fact about TaoRay is that despite his extensive sharing on investments, he clearly warns against taking his content as financial advice and refuses to create investment groups, maintaining independence and transparency.
Sharing wisdom from conversations with top experts on fitness, careers & relationships. Intentional Wisdom podcast & newsletter: gregcampion.substack.com
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cult)同‘邪教’是一个词。”他不止一次地对我说:宗教信奉的是神,邪教信奉的是人,所以共产党是邪教。父亲以为我和他对于共产党的态度是根本不同的,他是救党派,而我对共产党是彻底否定的。但是父亲对共产党是“邪教”的定论,我深以为然:一切将活人奉为神的组织,都是邪教。\n\n我为什么要在这期“跟进”中忆及父亲关于“邪教”的说法呢?因为这个月,一些活跃在海外的中文自媒体突然齐刷刷地站出来,用各种数字和现象,分析、证明法轮功的李洪志大师在《大纪元》报上的说法“中国三年疫情死了四亿人”是可信的;如果你无论如何也无法相信“四亿”这个数据,那么李洪志这位Messenger你是应该绝对相信的,因为他是神,他可以洞察到普通人看不到的东西。我绝对没有想到,这么多自媒体居然都属于法轮功,众口一词地将李洪志这个大活人比为耶稣和释迦摩尼。我在给一位法轮功自媒体人的电子邮件中说:“我很好奇,不知道李洪志是否会回到中国大陆,像耶稣那样,代他的信徒受过;不知道李洪志是否会像释迦摩尼那样,同方菲、方伟、章天亮、唐靖远……围炉夜话,为听众解惑答疑。”这位受到很多人喜爱的自媒体人没有回复。\n\n我一向对法轮功学员在大庭广众下统一服装,聚众练功所显示出的集体主义精神持警惕态度,这次众多自媒体步调一致地亮出了法轮功背景,彻底警醒了我:法轮功已然是、且是唯一可以与中共抗衡的财力雄厚,拥有强大宣传工具和众多成员的组织。很多追随者在他们的跟帖中做了明确的表达,相信李大师“天灭中共”的预言即将成为现实,“灭共”的共同目标不再可望而不可及,法轮功应该取代共产党在中国执政。\n\n一位著名美国汉学家的遗孀在手机短信中对我说:“李洪志的‘真善忍’那个忍字,就暗藏着老百姓的血人命与牺牲。没有一个民主或开明的政党和团体会这么要求老百姓的……”她的话让我第一次想到法轮功“灭共”主张二字背后的血腥。共产党不是一个抽象的词汇,它是由有血有肉的个体组成的政党,“灭共”就意味着所有的共产党员都应该被消灭掉。法轮功自媒体天天讲、月月讲、年年讲的就是:“退党、退团、退队。若想逃脱被消灭的命运,这是唯一的选择。”我自己就曾经被法轮功的媒体人要求公开宣布退队、退团。我说,我早就超龄了,早就不是少先队员和共青团员了,何来“退”之由。我被告知:那不一样,公开宣布了退出,在共产党被消灭时,你才不会跟着一起灭亡。\n\n国民党曾经在一九二七年四月发动过“清党运动”,逮捕和处决了大批共产党人,但是历史证明,中共并不因为它无数烈士的流血牺牲而成为正义的代表。同样,江泽民对法轮功的镇压和迫害是极为残酷的,但是法轮功也并不因此而成为中国光明前途的选择。\n\n我并不因为法轮功是邪教,便以为它的信徒们都是邪恶的;同是,我认为共产党是邪教,但不认为所有的共产党员都是该被灭掉的邪灵。相反,我以为无论是法轮功的信徒,还是像我父亲那样的共产党员,他们之中的很多人都是诚心真意地相信他们的教义和他们党的奋斗目标的。但是我经历过将毛泽东这个大活人像神一样崇拜的年代,我在把李洪志遵奉为神的法轮功宣传中看到的是同共产党一样的邪教特质。苏联解体后,共产党依然合法地存在,只是变成了一个不受人待见的小党,苏联的社会在转型中没有出现腥风血雨。我们需要的不是“灭共”,而是彻底抛弃共产党所崇尚的那个马克思主义和他的“无产阶级专政”的理论和实践。我在父亲去世的当日发出过一个声明,其中有这样一句话:“李锐走了,我希望随着他的离去,‘跟随旗手’、‘拥戴领军人’的文化在中国也永远地走入历史。李锐走了,我们还活着。我们只需追随自己心灵的召唤,为了个人的利益和尊严,为了自由自在地思想和表达,努力地、坚韧地做自己能够做的事情。” 我尊崇哈耶克一生的信奉:“人类的繁荣、幸福和尊严,来自个人自由,而不是集体主义。”\n\n人们啊,需要警惕被尊崇为“神”的活人;人们啊,需要警惕这个活着的“神”树立的无论什么样的,要求追随者共同追求的同一个目标,因为共同的目标必然引向另一个暴政。\n\np.s. 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最近西方股价下杀,有两大原因。一是国际油价下跌,第二是西方石油把其化工产业卖给了巴菲特的伯克希尔。很多分析师觉得西方石油把一块非常有利润的业务舍弃了,所以引起恐慌抛售。然而这是完全不理性的。第一,西方石油拿到了九十多亿的现金,能够让其财务更健康。具体财务分析我就不细说了,然而我想强调,巴菲特作为西方石油最大的股东,怎么可能花钱做不利于西方石油的收购呢?搬起石头砸自己的脚?让自己的股份贬值吗?这显然不可能。在巴菲特完成收购后,西方石油CEO Hollub在上个礼拜说西方石油之后将会财务更加稳健,业务更加集中,增加更加迅速,计划股价在五年内翻倍。这是得到了巴菲特背书的测算。在现在的投机环境下,这是相当可观的增长。\n\n2. 巴菲特讲过投资西方石油是他对未来AI时代的布局。AI一定会导致电力需求暴增,而西方石油的天然气业务一定会迎来爆炸式增长。这也是个AI时代卖铲子的好生意。现在美国的电力已经出现严重短缺,建立新的发电厂的投资络绎不绝,电力设备公司的股价已经屡创新高,相信这股势头很快就会传导到能源公司。巴菲特也明确说明收购西方石油的化工业务也是为了能让西方石油能够有更多资金,集中全部资源发展核心能源业务,把握住未来AI时代的大趋势。这绝对是非常明智的长远战略布局。这就像一个企业家有一个稳定收租的豪宅,当市场的大机会来临时,对于企业家来说,卖掉这个豪宅给一个有钱,且只想经营被动收入的老人,拿一大笔钱去做自己擅长的大生意才是最明智的。这对于企业家和老人是真正的双赢,而且老人本身也是企业家生意的第一大股东。如果市场分析师解读为企业家放弃了优良资产那是大错特错的。所以我觉得市场完全错误评估了这场收购。\n\n3. 最近美国股市波动加大,银行坏账问题浮出水面,市场避险情绪急剧升温。未来的宏观经济并不容乐观,所以对经济放缓的担忧打击了油价。然而经济放缓的底层原因是什么呢?是债务货币化。全球债务水平已经不可持续,美国的债务利息支出都已经超过了军费,而且还在上升。最后不可避免要通过超发货币来解决债务问题。美国通胀依旧保持在高位,但是经济和就业已经放缓,不得不进入降息周期,这让货币贬值的压力进一步增大。这也是黄金作为抗击货币贬值的终极利器为何迎来历史性大涨。石油虽然会受到经济周期的影响,在经济放缓中需求减弱,但是石油具作为能源必需品和大宗商品,具有强定价权,所以长期看石油公司总是能够在不确定性中穿越宏观周期的,是典型的防御性板块,尤其是能够抵抗货币面值。我相信这也是为什么巴菲特在不看好宏观经济的情况下,却一直大举加仓西方石油和雪佛龙。\n\n这是一脉相承的,债务危机不断累积,风险资产、股市和加密货币开始宽幅震荡,黄金价格暴涨。对宏观经济的担忧首先影响了经济活力和就业,导致经济放缓,短期打击了石油需求,油价下跌。然而真正的病根,债务危机,很快会浮出水面,债务货币化和货币贬值会接踵而来,这又会长期托起油价。\n\n所以我一直在为此布局,今年下半年以来我不断减少科技股的持仓,开始配置大量的黄金、美债、以及能源和保险股(主要是西方石油、雪弗龙和联合健康)。我大概流动资产的配置是15%的美国短期债券,15%的股票,20%的美国长期国债,50%的黄金。\n\n长债和石油是相反的,短期利好,长期却承压。长债之前被压抑了很久,随着降息周期和避险情绪的增加应该会有一波上涨行情。但是随着债务货币化,名义收益率会骤降,长期波动肯定会加大,所以我并不打算长期持有,会在降息周期中择机抛售,继续增持黄金,以及在低位配置能源股。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,141],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979574646266802656","view_count":50942,"bookmark_count":212,"created_at":1760802349000,"favorite_count":261,"quote_count":3,"reply_count":29,"retweet_count":48,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979574646266802656","full_text":"我非常看好西方石油。在投资之前,我曾亲自走访过它的油田,研究其财报。最近的回调给了我继续加仓的大好良机。赚钱的机会往往出现在被市场错杀的时候。未来是AI革命与宏观经济危机并存的年代,所以投资上有很多的挑战,看了这篇文章你就会理解为何投资西方石油是巴菲特应对危机和技术革命的神来之笔。\n\n1. 最近西方股价下杀,有两大原因。一是国际油价下跌,第二是西方石油把其化工产业卖给了巴菲特的伯克希尔。很多人觉得西方石油把一块非常有利润的业务舍弃了,所以引起恐慌抛售。然而这是完全不理性的。第一,西方石油拿到了九十多亿的现金,能够让其财务更健康。具体财务分析我就不细说了,然而我想强调,巴菲特作为西方石油最大的股东,怎么可能花钱做不利于西方石油的收购呢?搬起石头砸自己的脚?让自己的股份贬值吗?这显然不可能。在巴菲特完成收购后,西方石油CEO Hollub在上个礼拜说西方石油之后将会财务更加稳健,业务更加集中,增加更加迅速,计划股价在五年内翻倍。这是得到了巴菲特背书的测算。在现在的投机环境下,这是相当可观的增长。\n\n2. 巴菲特讲过投资西方石油是他对未来AI时代的布局。AI一定会导致电力需求暴增,而西方石油的天然气业务一定会迎来爆炸式增长。这也是个AI时代卖铲子的好生意。现在美国的电力已经出现严重短缺,建立新的发电厂的投资络绎不绝,电力设备公司的股价已经屡创新高,相信这股势头很快就会传导到能源公司。巴菲特也明确说明收购西方石油的化工业务也是为了能让西方石油能够有更多资金,集中全部资源发展核心能源业务,把握住这个未来的大趋势。这绝对是非常明智的长远战略布局。这就像一个企业家有一个稳定收租的豪宅,当市场机会来临时,对于企业家来说,卖掉这个豪宅给一个有钱,且只想经营被动收入的老人,拿一大笔钱去做自己擅长的大生意才是最明智的。这对于企业家和老人是真正的双赢,而且老人本身也是企业家生意的第一大股东。如果市场解读为企业家放弃了优良资产那是大错特错的。所以我觉得市场完全错误估计了这场收购。\n\n3. 最近美国股市波动加大,银行坏账问题浮出水面,市场避险情绪急剧升温。未来的宏观经济并不容乐观,所以对经济放缓的担忧打击了油价。然而经济放缓的底层原因是什么呢?是债务货币化。全球债务水平已经不可持续,美国的债务利息支出都已经超过了军费,而且还在上升。最后不可避免要通过超发货币来解决债务问题。美国通胀依旧保持在高位,但是经济和就业已经放缓,不得不进入降息周期,这让货币贬值的压力进一步增大。这也是黄金作为抗击货币贬值的终极利器为何迎来历史性大涨。石油虽然会受到经济周期的影响,在经济放缓中需求减弱,但是石油具作为能源必需品和大宗商品,具有强定价权,所以长期看石油公司总是能够在不确定性中穿越宏观周期的,是典型的防御性板块,尤其是能够抵抗货币面值。我相信这也是为什么巴菲特在不看好宏观经济的情况下,却一直大举加仓西方石油和雪佛龙。\n\n这是一脉相承的,债务危机不断累积,风险资产、股市和加密货币开始宽幅震荡,黄金价格暴涨。对宏观经济的担忧导致经济放缓,短期打击了石油需求,导致油价下跌。然而真正的债务危机很快会浮出水面,债务货币化和货币贬值又会长期托起油价。\n\n所以我一直在为此布局,今年下半年以来我不断减少科技股的持仓,开始配置大量的黄金、美债、以及能源和保险股(主要是西方石油、雪弗龙和联合健康)。我大概流动资产的配置是15%的美国短期债券,15%的股票,20%的美国长期国债,50%的黄金。\n\n长债和石油是相反的,短期利好,长期承压。长债之前被压抑了很久,随着降息周期和避险情绪的增加应该会有一波上涨行情。但是随着债务货币化,名义收益率会骤降,长期波动肯定会加大,所以我并不打算长期持有,会在降息周期中择机抛售,继续增持黄金,以及在低位配置能源股。\n\n最后我还想再说说巴菲特。很多人说巴菲特投资西方石油亏损了,因为他买了以后股价下跌了很多。其实巴菲特并没有亏,因为他除了购买了大量的普通股(这部分确实亏损了),但是他同时也购买了很多优先股。这部分的股价是不变的,而且每年还会给巴菲特8%的股息分红。这样一中和,巴菲特一点都不亏。这也非常符合巴菲特的投资性格,不渴求买到股价的最底部,只要有足够的安全边际就会毫不犹豫的下场。巴菲特可以说是对西方石油的信心与日俱增,不然也不会又花90多亿让其可以扩大能源项目的布局。然而我们买不到优先股,所以如果在巴菲特买股票的时候,也马上跟着买,持仓成本会比巴菲特高很多。所以我之前一直不买西方石油,只有在股价回调时大举进入。很多人说抄巴菲特作业亏本了,其实是不会抄罢了。抄作业也有技巧。我们必须把巴菲特的持仓成本做好换算后再抄作业。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979586375763771425","view_count":19045,"bookmark_count":40,"created_at":1760805145000,"favorite_count":82,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":12,"retweet_count":11,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979586375763771425","full_text":"今晚讲黄金和加密货币!过些日子讲债券配置:短债和货币基金有什么区别?TLT和直债如何选择?以及4大银行如何选择?(摩根大通、美国银行、摩根士丹利、汇丰)普通业务怎么选?外汇业务怎么选?投资业务怎么选?私人银行业务怎么选?中国、香港、新加坡、美国、瑞士怎么选?怎样全球资产配置可以如虎添翼?","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[33,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1674011365340778496","name":"G L","screen_name":"GL7525638026680","indices":[0,16]},{"id_str":"1161248776880832512","name":"David_Z","screen_name":"DavidZ11966088","indices":[17,32]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"GL7525638026680","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979577309876326683","view_count":6694,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1760802984000,"favorite_count":21,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1958544604820889790","full_text":"@GL7525638026680 @DavidZ11966088 短期震荡不可预测,长期必将一飞冲天。当年比特币的增长是什么水平,黄金就会怎么涨。比特币只号称是数字黄金,当债务货币化真正到来的时候,真正的黄金会一路高歌猛进。全球债务已经达到了史无前例的水平,黄金也会有史无前例的增长。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1674011365340778496","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1979572292418994602","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[16,38],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1161248776880832512","name":"David_Z","screen_name":"DavidZ11966088","indices":[0,15]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"DavidZ11966088","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979568994773553522","view_count":6088,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760801001000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1958544604820889790","full_text":"@DavidZ11966088 我刚刚为此写了一篇文章,你可以在我主页上看。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1161248776880832512","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1979319933113930001","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-20","value":0,"startTime":1760832000000,"endTime":1760918400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,116],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979845314447389073","view_count":67,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760866881000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979845314447389073","full_text":"杨振宁的科学成就是毋庸置疑的。至于他的人品和为人,我不认识他,所以完全无感,无所谓好坏。但是我感觉网上骂他的人,一大部分是因为羡慕嫉妒恨。他们要是有能力和统战价值,未必不去捞名捞利,未必不想找个年轻老婆,可惜他们没有这个能力和价值。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,77],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"2561532174","name":"Zhaonuo","screen_name":"gaoxiaoccp","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"gaoxiaoccp","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979765095661236226","view_count":1,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760847755000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979574646266802656","full_text":"@gaoxiaoccp 你有所不知,今年3月份已经有超过一大半的warrant提前行权了。剩下那一点对普通股的稀释可以忽略不计。只要稍微回购一下就抵消了。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"2561532174","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1979635552476713439","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,123],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1565895325944270849","name":"徐老猫","screen_name":"raycat2021","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"raycat2021","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979847060003434761","view_count":840,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760867297000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979737042360947112","full_text":"@raycat2021 不是我看小美国人。普通美国人挣的那三瓜两枣,又没有自制力,交完房租和日常吃喝用度,根本攒不下来多少钱投资股市。就是月光族,最后啥也不剩。买房可以改变消费习惯,增加储蓄动力,而且贷款不会比租金贵太多,不知不觉你会攒下一套房。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1565895325944270849","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1979737042360947112","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-21","value":97,"startTime":1760918400000,"endTime":1761004800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,146],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980108656231530993","view_count":95,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760929666000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980108656231530993","full_text":"一块iPhone这么大的金条已经30万美金了。以后世界上只会有两种人,已经拥有黄金的,和再也卖不起黄金的人。全球债务水平达到了自有人类以来的最高峰,债务货币化不可避免。5000年来,黄金是抗击货币贬值的唯一终极工具。黄金一旦进入央行的地下金库,就永远出不来了,所以市面上流通的黄金会越来越少。全世界一共只有22立方米的黄金,越来越多央行在加速囤积黄金。我上几次说黄金时,有不少自不量力的网友又说我在找接盘侠。不是我看不起我自己和各位。我们这些小虾米,全部倾家荡产地去买卖黄金,都贱不起一个小水花。按照今天美国人的储蓄水平,99%的人都已经买不起一块iPhone这么大的金条了。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,146],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980115481924403484","view_count":223161,"bookmark_count":160,"created_at":1760931294000,"favorite_count":450,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":75,"retweet_count":43,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980115481924403484","full_text":"一块iPhone这么大的金条已经30万美金了。以后世界上只会有两种人,已经拥有黄金的,和再也卖不起黄金的人。全球债务水平达到了自有人类以来的最高峰,债务货币化不可避免。5000年来,黄金是抗击货币贬值的唯一终极工具。黄金一旦进入央行的地下金库,就永远出不来了,所以市面上流通的黄金会越来越少。全世界一共只有22米见方的黄金,越来越多央行在加速囤积黄金。我上几次说黄金时,有不少自不量力的网友又说我在找接盘侠。不是我看不起我自己和各位。我们这些小虾米,全部倾家荡产地去买卖黄金,都贱不起一个小水花。按照今天美国人的储蓄水平,99%的人都已经买不起一块iPhone这么大的金条了。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,140],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980123337406976369","view_count":15031,"bookmark_count":19,"created_at":1760933167000,"favorite_count":103,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":7,"retweet_count":8,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980123337406976369","full_text":"我发现最近X简中圈戾气很重。估计都是币圈合约爆雷的原因。简中圈一大半对财经的讨论都是有关炒币的。非常悲哀。大家要知道,在金融领域大部分普通人的财富都会被收割,所以要特别小心。普通人投资就应该买核心资产,好股票、国债、黄金。那些偏门的东西,妖股、合约、各种杠杆衍生品,碰一下就输了。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":true,"display_text_range":[0,143],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":true,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"realTaoRay","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980118718840774935","view_count":43109,"bookmark_count":50,"created_at":1760932066000,"favorite_count":113,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":10,"retweet_count":15,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980115481924403484","full_text":"核心资产一定是越来越高不可攀的。25年前普通中产可以咬咬牙在北上广深最核心的地段随便买房,40年前美国中产咬咬牙也能在曼哈顿买下核心房产。今天房价再跌,普通中产卷死自己也买不起这些核心资产了。10年前普通人轻轻松松买十个比特币,今天买一个都费劲。在科技革命和全球化的大背景下,世界的财富是几何式增长的,但是分配是不均匀的,所以普通人和有钱人的差距也在几何式拉大。核心资产会越来越远离普通人。有了就有,没有的,永远不会有。纵观人类5000年历史,一切金融危机都是资源过分错配的结果,一切社会动荡都是资源配置严重失衡的结果。以后会有一场革命来重新分配财富,可能是15年后,也可能是50年后。但越是如此,越彰显出黄金作为避险资产的重要性。之后我再说比特币和黄金的比较和异同。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980115481924403484","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[9,22],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1381098431532371969","name":"btctank","screen_name":"btctank","indices":[0,8]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"btctank","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980151719666569627","view_count":2047,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760939934000,"favorite_count":4,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980115481924403484","full_text":"@btctank 流动资产没有。除非卖房子。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1381098431532371969","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980147786210562340","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,34],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"869874904342114304","name":"Watervalle","screen_name":"watervalle","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"watervalle","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980157114497843480","view_count":1551,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760941220000,"favorite_count":13,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980115481924403484","full_text":"@watervalle iPhone这么大,不是iPhone这么重。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"869874904342114304","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980153350525173991","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[16,41],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1030112188277579778","name":"nobody","screen_name":"nobody02916666","indices":[0,15]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"nobody02916666","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980138250888241370","view_count":2692,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760936722000,"favorite_count":4,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980115481924403484","full_text":"@nobody02916666 你又知道我是被革命的对象?我可能散尽家财资助革命。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1030112188277579778","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980136471060414848","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[10,36],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1457238121679302657","name":"Colin Wu","screen_name":"WutalkWu","indices":[0,9]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"WutalkWu","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980149563253260786","view_count":10283,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1760939419000,"favorite_count":11,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980118861254164694","full_text":"@WutalkWu 中国文化中没有privacy和secrecy的区别。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1457238121679302657","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980118861254164694","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-22","value":1,"startTime":1761004800000,"endTime":1761091200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,141],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1980431376957513846","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/XAk9M456ZA","expanded":"https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1980431376957513846","display":"x.com/zerohedge/stat…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980471352504246759","view_count":3968,"bookmark_count":4,"created_at":1761016140000,"favorite_count":14,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980471352504246759","full_text":"1/3的美国人信用卡债务已经超过存款。这不仅仅是美国的问题,全世界都是如此。中国的隐性债更是大到难以估计。个人负债、国家负债、资不抵债成为全球经济的主旋律,美国作为火车头也深陷泥潭。自从有人类以来,全球债务水平没有这么高过。债务货币化不可避免,货币贬值板上钉钉,中长期黄金想跌都难。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-23","value":27,"startTime":1761091200000,"endTime":1761177600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,143],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980804450601357737","view_count":862,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761095557000,"favorite_count":7,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980804450601357737","full_text":"黄金暴跌?!简直就是笑话!相比黄金一直的大涨,这只能算是一个小小的波动。就算昨天跌完,单单最近一个月还是暴涨了10%。算上今年年初到现在,黄金涨过了我手上所有的股票,英伟达、标普、科技ETF、能源股。回调是加仓的好机会。牛市里千金难买牛回头,熊市里到处都是死猫条。黄金上涨的逻辑没改变。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,143],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980870679852650765","view_count":33429,"bookmark_count":30,"created_at":1761111347000,"favorite_count":199,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":23,"retweet_count":12,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980870679852650765","full_text":"黄金暴跌?!简直就是笑话!相比黄金一直的大涨,这只能算是一个小小的波动。就算昨天跌完,单单最近一个月还是暴涨了10%。算上今年年初到现在,黄金涨过了我手上所有的股票,英伟达、标普、科技ETF、能源股。回调是加仓的好机会。牛市里千金难买牛回头,熊市里到处都是死猫条。黄金上涨的逻辑没改变。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,63],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1366565625401909249","name":"Wall Street Mav","screen_name":"WallStreetMav","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"WallStreetMav","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981040326505603509","view_count":3190,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761151794000,"favorite_count":12,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1981011584832204920","full_text":"@WallStreetMav 把白宫里面装修成金色是不够的,应该把外墙都贴上24k金,从此改名叫金宫。这才是留名青史的大功绩。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1366565625401909249","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981011584832204920","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-24","value":102,"startTime":1761177600000,"endTime":1761264000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981386135763898725","view_count":2,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761234241000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1981386135763898725","full_text":"我前些天和德勤的一个中国区合伙人聊天,终于搞清楚了CRS的原理,也终于明白为什么美国明明不在CRS系统里面,但有些人用美国券商(如IBKR)还是会被追税。我今天就来讲一讲。顺便也说一下地下钱庄换汇和税务的风险,以及中国税务居民用美国银行卡+美资券商的相关问题。\n\nCRS是看不到你的交易明细的,只会看到你在CRS辖区内账户在几个时间点的资金额。当你的资金体量比较大的时候,你就可能被盯上。目前是各地税局分别负责,全国没有统一标准,但是金额门槛正在下沉。去年还只是查千万美金级别的户主,今年甚至有几十万美金的户主也中招。\n\n假如你有一张港卡,被CRS交换了,金额又达到了某个标准,那么税局就有可能会盯上你。这时候税局不是直接按照他们掌握的信息来收税,而是会要求你主动申报,要你把海外所有账户的银行流水、券商交易记录交出来,一般是看近3年的(有的甚至会要求看6年,但是你可以找会计和他们argue,有专业人士介入会好很多)。虽然税局本身看不到你的交易明细和流水,更看不到你美资券商的买卖记录,但问题是你敢不敢隐瞒呢?你要不要冒着犯罪的风险去造假流水呢?很多人不敢。这也是为什么很多人用美资券商还是会被收税。\n\n如果你是美国银行账户+美国券商,原则上不可能被CRS侦测到,中国税局也不会知道你在外国有账户,更不会找你索要信息。但在实操过程中,这样也存在很多问题。比如,中国人如何把大额资金弄到美国?大部分人的大额资金出境都要通过香港账户,因为香港是全世界对出入金监管最宽松的地方之一。\n\n美国对洗钱防范得特别严格。联邦法律规定一万美金以上的流动就要自动进入系统以备检查。所以出入金特别困难。如果外国人的账户长期有不同的外国人汇钱进来,很可能就会被封户。人在美国的外国人的账户会好很多,系统会备注你的信息,所以留学生收到国内很多汇款也一般不会出现问题。\n\n但是只要你人在美国半年以上,这就包括了所有留学生和在美工作的中国人,你的投资收益是要按照美国人的标准去交美国税的,这个税比中国的税还重。而且逃税的惩罚非常非常严重,美国税局IRS比中国要严厉很多。\n\n那能不能把钱汇给正在美国留学的孩子,然后再转去中国父母的美资券商账户呢?这样既不会被美国银行风控封户,也逃过了被CRS和中国税局的追踪,也不用交美国的税。答案是很难操作。因为法律规定,外国人在美国开的券商账户只接受同名账户的转账。当然你还是可以让子女再把钱一次性打到你的美国银行账户,再转入券商。因为是在美国国内亲属一次性打款的,不是很多个5万美金的境外汇款,这就不会引起风控。但是我必须说,我不是在鼓励大家逃税!\n\n但是这种方法不适合资金体量比较大的人操作,因为很难通过多个5万美金的蚂蚁搬家把钱汇出去。大部分人还是会选择地下钱庄来换钱,这又叫“对敲”。也就是你在中国往钱庄的中国境内账户打一笔钱,同时钱庄往你的境外账户打一笔等值的美金。都必须是即时到账,降低风险。大家都看到到账后,再马上打下一笔。这样敲几次,就把钱换走了。对敲被认为是最保险的,因为如果不是即时到账,谁都担心被骗。再说一遍,我不是在鼓励大家非法换汇。\n\n对敲一般只能用港卡,因为香港和中国一样,可以大额资金境内转账即时到账,而且不容易触发风控;而在美国就非常困难。一是美国即使是国内大额转账也不是即时到账,二是你的美国账户短时间收到好几笔大额款项,八成账户就会被封。\n\n但是港卡一旦有大额款项,通过CRS,中国税局就会知道你在海外有资金了。所以这就是为什么大部分有钱人走资以后,都会被CRS查到并要求补税。就是因为他们不得不用港卡走资。即使不用港卡,所有能满足对敲需求的地区都在CRS网络里面。\n\n今天我讲的是普通有钱人遇到的问题,明天我来讲一讲中国税局是如何对付企业家的。顶豪们早就在税局重点关注的名单上了,但同时也早就请律师和会计做好了各种架构,身份也移民了,早已不是中国税务居民,钱也不是通过地下钱庄,而是通过外资股东分红和一层层壳公司,用各种复杂的商业操作换走的,非常难被穿透。但是现在中国税局也进化出了一套方法,让这些人的海外收入缴税。明天再讲其中的门道。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981387300069134635","view_count":179390,"bookmark_count":1407,"created_at":1761234519000,"favorite_count":1113,"quote_count":5,"reply_count":40,"retweet_count":258,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1981387300069134635","full_text":"我最近找德勤做了点业务,终于搞清楚了CRS的原理,也终于明白了为什么美国明明不在CRS里面,但有些人用美国券商(如IBKR)还是会被追税。顺便也说一下地下钱庄换汇和税务的风险,以及中国人用美国银行卡+美资券商的相关问题。这绝对是全网相关议题最详细和深入的讨论!\n\nCRS是看不到你的交易明细的,只会看到你在CRS辖区内账户在几个时间点的资金额。当你的资金体量比较大的时候,你就可能被盯上。目前是各地税局分别负责,全国没有统一标准,但是金额门槛正在下沉。去年还只是查千万美金级别的户主,今年甚至有几十万美金的户主也中招。\n\n假如你有一张港卡,被CRS交换了,金额又达到了某个标准,那么税局就有可能会盯上你。这时候税局不是直接按照他们掌握的信息来收税,而是会要求你主动申报,要你把海外所有账户的银行流水、券商交易记录交出来,一般是看近3年的(有的甚至会要求看6年,但是你可以找会计和他们argue,有专业人士介入会好很多)。虽然税局本身看不到你的交易明细和流水,更看不到你美资券商的买卖记录,但问题是你敢不敢隐瞒呢?你要不要冒着犯罪的风险去造假流水呢?很多人不敢。这也是为什么很多人用美资券商还是会被收税。\n\n如果你是美国银行账户+美国券商,原则上不可能被CRS侦测到,中国税局也不会知道你在外国有账户,更不会找你索要信息。但在实操过程中,这样也存在很多问题。比如,中国人如何把大额资金弄到美国?大部分人的大额资金出境都要通过香港账户,因为香港是全世界对出入金监管最宽松的地方之一。\n\n美国对洗钱防范得特别严格。联邦法律规定一万美金以上的流动就要自动进入系统以备检查。所以出入金特别困难。如果外国人的账户长期有不同的外国人汇钱进来,很可能就会被封户。人在美国的外国人的账户会好很多,系统会备注你的信息,所以留学生收到国内很多汇款也一般不会出现问题。\n\n但是只要你人在美国半年以上,这就包括了所有留学生和在美工作的中国人,你的投资收益是要按照美国人的标准去交美国税的,这个税比中国的税还重。而且逃税的惩罚非常非常严重,美国税局IRS比中国要严厉很多。\n\n那能不能把钱汇给正在美国留学的孩子,然后再转去中国父母的美资券商账户呢?这样既不会被美国银行风控封户,也逃过了被CRS和中国税局的追踪,也不用交美国的税。答案是很难操作。因为法律规定,外国人在美国开的券商账户只接受同名账户的转账。当然你还是可以让子女再把钱一次性打到你的美国银行账户,再转入券商。因为是在美国国内亲属一次性打款的,不是很多个5万美金的境外汇款,这就不会引起风控。但是我必须说,我不是在鼓励大家逃税!\n\n但是这种方法不适合资金体量比较大的人操作,因为很难通过多个5万美金的蚂蚁搬家把钱汇出去。大部分人还是会选择地下钱庄来换钱,这又叫“对敲”。也就是你在中国往钱庄的中国境内账户打一笔钱,同时钱庄往你的境外账户打一笔等值的美金。都必须是即时到账,降低风险。大家都看到到账后,再马上打下一笔。这样敲几次,就把钱换走了。对敲被认为是最保险的,因为如果不是即时到账,谁都担心被骗。再说一遍,我不是在鼓励大家非法换汇。\n\n对敲一般只能用港卡,因为香港和中国一样,可以大额资金境内转账即时到账,而且不容易触发风控;而在美国就非常困难。一是美国即使是国内大额转账也不是即时到账,二是你的美国账户短时间收到好几笔大额款项,八成账户就会被封。\n\n但是港卡一旦有大额款项,通过CRS,中国税局就会知道你在海外有资金了。所以这就是为什么大部分有钱人走资以后,都会被CRS查到并要求补税。就是因为他们不得不用港卡走资。即使不用港卡,所有能满足对敲需求的地区都在CRS网络里面。\n\n今天我讲的是普通有钱人遇到的问题,明天我来讲一讲中国税局是如何对付企业家的。顶豪们早就在税局重点关注的名单上了,但同时也早就请律师和会计做好了各种架构,身份也移民了,早已不是中国税务居民,钱也不是通过地下钱庄,而是通过外资股东分红和一层层壳公司,用各种复杂的商业操作换走的,非常难被穿透。但是现在中国税局也进化出了一套方法,让这些人的海外收入缴税。明天再讲其中的门道。为什么你移民到了国外,依然可能会被中国税局追税?他们又是如何做到的。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,19],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":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Don’t despair; America will come back and so will Berkshire shares.\n\n注意,这里用的是未来时,也就是巴菲特预计未来股价会大幅波动,而且会下跌50%。\n\n结合巴菲特在早前的股东大会说,他不希望预测时间,但他觉得重大的投资机会会在5年内出现;以及他说,没有人愿意持有正在奔向地狱的货币。我还在消化这里面的信息。之后再和大家细聊。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,105],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988253398010036397","view_count":46697,"bookmark_count":111,"created_at":1762871524000,"favorite_count":210,"quote_count":6,"reply_count":20,"retweet_count":29,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988253398010036397","full_text":"巴菲特给股东写了一封长信,并宣称之后会安静下来,和股东沟通的任务交给新CEO。他几乎没有评价现在的市场。但却单独起了一段只讲了一句话:我们的股价将会大幅波动,偶尔会下跌大约 50%,在现任管理层执掌公司的 60 年里,这种情况已经发生过三次。不要灰心,美国会再度振作,伯克希尔的股价也会随之回升。\n\n巴菲特的这封长信主要是在回顾人生,初看非常励志、非常暖心。但当我看到那句话时,我惊出一身冷汗。这仿佛是在大灾难之前给人们做好心理建设。\n\nOur stock price will move capriciously, occasionally falling 50% or so as has happened three times in 60 years under present management. Don’t despair; America will come back and so will Berkshire shares.\n\n注意,这里用的是未来时,也就是巴菲特预计未来股价会大幅波动,而且会下跌50%。\n\n巴菲特几十年来撰写的所有的股东信我都读过,他这些年的每一个年会和采访我都看过。巴菲特说话从来都很含蓄,从来不会完全说破。对于不熟悉他风格的人,乍听一下,他说的每一句话都没有什么深意。比如上面那句话,任何时候、任何公司的股价都可能大幅波动甚至腰斩,尤其是在一个很长的时间线上。但是当你听他说话多了以后,就会发现他有个习惯,每说一句话都要停下来想一想,每一句话都不是随口乱说的。他非常讲究在什么时间说什么话。比如在早前的几次股灾中,他会说要注意估值风险。这句话看似也是没有什么意义。投资什么时候不应该关心估值风险呢?但巴菲特只会在他觉得市场泡沫的时候这样说。在他要大举出手买货的时候,他会说宁愿花不便宜的价钱买好公司。\n\n巴菲特之所以是股神,并不是他能押中最赚钱的股票,而是他践行了他的名言:只有当潮水退去时,才知道谁在裸泳。\n\n结合巴菲特在早前的股东大会上的说法,他不希望预测时间,但他觉得重大的投资机会会在5年内出现;以及他说,没有人愿意持有正在奔向地狱的货币。我还在消化这里面的信息。之后再和大家细聊。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[9,93],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"945607507510038528","name":"Pathfinder","screen_name":"Pathusa","indices":[0,8]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Pathusa","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988242829651608061","view_count":1979,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1762869005000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1987933646767136949","full_text":"@Pathusa Circle有两个致命问题。盈利高度依赖国债收益率,跟coinbase签订了无法解约的卖身契。Circle除非找到新的增长点,才有大爆发的潜力。现在这个价位还不够安全。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"945607507510038528","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987933646767136949","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-13","value":0,"startTime":1762905600000,"endTime":1762992000000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-14","value":20,"startTime":1762992000000,"endTime":1763078400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,140],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988986827848798543","view_count":33,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763046388000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988986827848798543","full_text":"巴菲特曾经赞扬过中国对加密行业的管制。其实中国政府做得非常差,漏洞到处都是。我认为支付宝和微信出入金加密货币,应该立刻封号。这已经成为电信诈骗利用的漏洞。目前英美的汇丰银行、摩根大通才真正走在了风控的前列,基本上离岸账户(非开户行所在地居民的账号)在加密货币出入金就会被终身封户。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,143],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988993507542069645","view_count":26,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763047980000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988993507542069645","full_text":"中国应效法美国,向境外汇款超过1万美金,必须合规审查,没有备案的加密货币交易,或境外账户的买卖,终身封户(美国叫做debank)。境内用户也必须要在交易所报备个人社会信用信息才能交易。中国的国际汇款和加密货币出入金既没和个人征信绑定,违规也不封卡、封微信,政府不作为,电诈才有可乘之机!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1988893869212139873","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/J7x0x5DgHO","expanded":"https://twitter.com/ipaulcanada/status/1988893869212139873","display":"x.com/ipaulcanada/st…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989012531592196460","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763052516000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989012531592196460","full_text":"做空的前提是赚钱而不是赌气。21年卖房买美股,25年再低价买回来,然后超低利息贷给银行,套钱出来买黄金。生娃生三个,每胎拿补贴。黄金不变现,加上银行贷款是负债,千万富翁白嫖低保。银行要完成社融数据,心甘情愿被你薅羊毛。这才是在中国生活的最高境界。那些不生孩子,不买房的,都在给你打工。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1988893869212139873","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/J7x0x5DgHO","expanded":"https://twitter.com/ipaulcanada/status/1988893869212139873","display":"x.com/ipaulcanada/st…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989012279996871062","view_count":43,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763052456000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989012279996871062","full_text":"做空的前提是赚钱而不是赌气。21年卖房买美股,25年再低价买回来,然后超低利息贷给银行,套钱出来买黄金。生娃生三个,每胎拿补贴。黄金不变现,加上银行贷款是负债,千万富翁白嫖低保。银行要完成社融数据,心甘情愿被你薅羊毛。这才是在中国生活的最高境界。那些不生孩子,不买房,都是在给你打工。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,140],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989015555748294766","view_count":42911,"bookmark_count":60,"created_at":1763053237000,"favorite_count":238,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":16,"retweet_count":21,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989015555748294766","full_text":"大家记得,牛市让你赚小钱,熊市才让你发大财。牛市中大家都在赚钱,你只能保证不掉队,或者缓慢爬坡。熊市里大家都不赚钱,但你把握住了机会,就会一举跨越阶级。所以强者永远不抱怨这里经济不好,也不羡慕那里大环境更好。顶级投资者,包括股神巴菲特,往往在牛市里表现平平,但熊市一来,一飞冲天。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1820104162715246592","name":"malaimo","screen_name":"0rain4fall","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"0rain4fall","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989017760803008630","view_count":8303,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1763053762000,"favorite_count":18,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988930609809695067","full_text":"@0rain4fall 叶文洁是自己按的。首先叶文洁有那个本事,才有资格去按那个按钮。你若不是叶文洁,就忍着吧。即使你是,按了以后也要再等400年。人生像油条,要想成熟先煎熬。而且话说回来。有的人真可悲,绝望的时候宁可选择毁灭,也不去信靠能带来救赎的耶稣基督。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1820104162715246592","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1988930609809695067","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-15","value":13,"startTime":1763078400000,"endTime":1763164800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,14],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1985737463823011847","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/xiBsvWdxPC","expanded":"https://twitter.com/realtaoray/status/1985737463823011847","display":"x.com/realtaoray/sta…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989127805507105041","view_count":683,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763079999000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989127805507105041","full_text":"我这个空单的含金量还在上升!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,84],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989134466900808016","view_count":33951,"bookmark_count":19,"created_at":1763081587000,"favorite_count":57,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":13,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989134466900808016","full_text":"何同学进军英文油管。大有成为华人第一YouTuber的驾驶。短短几个视频,已经超越百万订阅,单个视频播放量也在百万上下。我觉得他的视频是挺有意思,比飓风影音好看太多了。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,47],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989183690363249058","view_count":128,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763093323000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989183690363249058","full_text":"大空头Michael Burry的例子告诉我们:所谓的人生发财靠康波,其实是,坑你一波又一波。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,61],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"realTaoRay","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989125269731655997","view_count":1677,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763079395000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989015555748294766","full_text":"我说的不是美股,美股还在牛市里,虽然要居安思危。我说的是中国。我看到网上很多绝望的声音,甚至有人说要叶文洁按电钮之类的话。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989015555748294766","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-16","value":0,"startTime":1763164800000,"endTime":1763251200000,"tweets":[]}],"nbookmarks":[{"label":"2025-10-17","value":0,"startTime":1760572800000,"endTime":1760659200000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-18","value":0,"startTime":1760659200000,"endTime":1760745600000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-19","value":255,"startTime":1760745600000,"endTime":1760832000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979568813151850933","view_count":264,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760800958000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979568813151850933","full_text":"我非常看好西方石油。在投资之前,我曾经亲自走访过它的公司和油田,研究其财报。深入调查后,我信心满满。最近的回调给了我继续加仓的大好良机。赚钱的机会往往出现在被市场错杀的时候。我简要分享我长期看好西方石油的逻辑,为何分析师错的离谱,以及我最新的资产配置。\n\n1. 最近西方股价下杀,有两大原因。一是国际油价下跌,第二是西方石油把其化工产业卖给了巴菲特的伯克希尔。很多分析师觉得西方石油把一块非常有利润的业务舍弃了,所以引起恐慌抛售。然而这是完全不理性的。第一,西方石油拿到了九十多亿的现金,能够让其财务更健康。具体财务分析我就不细说了,然而我想强调,巴菲特作为西方石油最大的股东,怎么可能花钱做不利于西方石油的收购呢?搬起石头砸自己的脚?让自己的股份贬值吗?这显然不可能。在巴菲特完成收购后,西方石油CEO Hollub在上个礼拜说西方石油之后将会财务更加稳健,业务更加集中,增加更加迅速,计划股价在五年内翻倍。这是得到了巴菲特背书的测算。在现在的投机环境下,这是相当可观的增长。\n\n2. 巴菲特讲过投资西方石油是他对未来AI时代的布局。AI一定会导致电力需求暴增,而西方石油的天然气业务一定会迎来爆炸式增长。这也是个AI时代卖铲子的好生意。现在美国的电力已经出现严重短缺,建立新的发电厂的投资络绎不绝,电力设备公司的股价已经屡创新高,相信这股势头很快就会传导到能源公司。巴菲特也明确说明收购西方石油的化工业务也是为了能让西方石油能够有更多资金,集中全部资源发展核心能源业务,把握住未来AI时代的大趋势。这绝对是非常明智的长远战略布局。这就像一个企业家有一个稳定收租的豪宅,当市场的大机会来临时,对于企业家来说,卖掉这个豪宅给一个有钱,且只想经营被动收入的老人,拿一大笔钱去做自己擅长的大生意才是最明智的。这对于企业家和老人是真正的双赢,而且老人本身也是企业家生意的第一大股东。如果市场分析师解读为企业家放弃了优良资产那是大错特错的。所以我觉得市场完全错误评估了这场收购。\n\n3. 最近美国股市波动加大,银行坏账问题浮出水面,市场避险情绪急剧升温。未来的宏观经济并不容乐观,所以对经济放缓的担忧打击了油价。然而经济放缓的底层原因是什么呢?是债务货币化。全球债务水平已经不可持续,美国的债务利息支出都已经超过了军费,而且还在上升。最后不可避免要通过超发货币来解决债务问题。美国通胀依旧保持在高位,但是经济和就业已经放缓,不得不进入降息周期,这让货币贬值的压力进一步增大。这也是黄金作为抗击货币贬值的终极利器为何迎来历史性大涨。石油虽然会受到经济周期的影响,在经济放缓中需求减弱,但是石油具作为能源必需品和大宗商品,具有强定价权,所以长期看石油公司总是能够在不确定性中穿越宏观周期的,是典型的防御性板块,尤其是能够抵抗货币面值。我相信这也是为什么巴菲特在不看好宏观经济的情况下,却一直大举加仓西方石油和雪佛龙。\n\n这是一脉相承的,债务危机不断累积,风险资产、股市和加密货币开始宽幅震荡,黄金价格暴涨。对宏观经济的担忧首先影响了经济活力和就业,导致经济放缓,短期打击了石油需求,油价下跌。然而真正的病根,债务危机,很快会浮出水面,债务货币化和货币贬值会接踵而来,这又会长期托起油价。\n\n所以我一直在为此布局,今年下半年以来我不断减少科技股的持仓,开始配置大量的黄金、美债、以及能源和保险股(主要是西方石油、雪弗龙和联合健康)。我大概流动资产的配置是15%的美国短期债券,15%的股票,20%的美国长期国债,50%的黄金。\n\n长债和石油是相反的,短期利好,长期却承压。长债之前被压抑了很久,随着降息周期和避险情绪的增加应该会有一波上涨行情。但是随着债务货币化,名义收益率会骤降,长期波动肯定会加大,所以我并不打算长期持有,会在降息周期中择机抛售,继续增持黄金,以及在低位配置能源股。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,141],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979574646266802656","view_count":50942,"bookmark_count":212,"created_at":1760802349000,"favorite_count":261,"quote_count":3,"reply_count":29,"retweet_count":48,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979574646266802656","full_text":"我非常看好西方石油。在投资之前,我曾亲自走访过它的油田,研究其财报。最近的回调给了我继续加仓的大好良机。赚钱的机会往往出现在被市场错杀的时候。未来是AI革命与宏观经济危机并存的年代,所以投资上有很多的挑战,看了这篇文章你就会理解为何投资西方石油是巴菲特应对危机和技术革命的神来之笔。\n\n1. 最近西方股价下杀,有两大原因。一是国际油价下跌,第二是西方石油把其化工产业卖给了巴菲特的伯克希尔。很多人觉得西方石油把一块非常有利润的业务舍弃了,所以引起恐慌抛售。然而这是完全不理性的。第一,西方石油拿到了九十多亿的现金,能够让其财务更健康。具体财务分析我就不细说了,然而我想强调,巴菲特作为西方石油最大的股东,怎么可能花钱做不利于西方石油的收购呢?搬起石头砸自己的脚?让自己的股份贬值吗?这显然不可能。在巴菲特完成收购后,西方石油CEO Hollub在上个礼拜说西方石油之后将会财务更加稳健,业务更加集中,增加更加迅速,计划股价在五年内翻倍。这是得到了巴菲特背书的测算。在现在的投机环境下,这是相当可观的增长。\n\n2. 巴菲特讲过投资西方石油是他对未来AI时代的布局。AI一定会导致电力需求暴增,而西方石油的天然气业务一定会迎来爆炸式增长。这也是个AI时代卖铲子的好生意。现在美国的电力已经出现严重短缺,建立新的发电厂的投资络绎不绝,电力设备公司的股价已经屡创新高,相信这股势头很快就会传导到能源公司。巴菲特也明确说明收购西方石油的化工业务也是为了能让西方石油能够有更多资金,集中全部资源发展核心能源业务,把握住这个未来的大趋势。这绝对是非常明智的长远战略布局。这就像一个企业家有一个稳定收租的豪宅,当市场机会来临时,对于企业家来说,卖掉这个豪宅给一个有钱,且只想经营被动收入的老人,拿一大笔钱去做自己擅长的大生意才是最明智的。这对于企业家和老人是真正的双赢,而且老人本身也是企业家生意的第一大股东。如果市场解读为企业家放弃了优良资产那是大错特错的。所以我觉得市场完全错误估计了这场收购。\n\n3. 最近美国股市波动加大,银行坏账问题浮出水面,市场避险情绪急剧升温。未来的宏观经济并不容乐观,所以对经济放缓的担忧打击了油价。然而经济放缓的底层原因是什么呢?是债务货币化。全球债务水平已经不可持续,美国的债务利息支出都已经超过了军费,而且还在上升。最后不可避免要通过超发货币来解决债务问题。美国通胀依旧保持在高位,但是经济和就业已经放缓,不得不进入降息周期,这让货币贬值的压力进一步增大。这也是黄金作为抗击货币贬值的终极利器为何迎来历史性大涨。石油虽然会受到经济周期的影响,在经济放缓中需求减弱,但是石油具作为能源必需品和大宗商品,具有强定价权,所以长期看石油公司总是能够在不确定性中穿越宏观周期的,是典型的防御性板块,尤其是能够抵抗货币面值。我相信这也是为什么巴菲特在不看好宏观经济的情况下,却一直大举加仓西方石油和雪佛龙。\n\n这是一脉相承的,债务危机不断累积,风险资产、股市和加密货币开始宽幅震荡,黄金价格暴涨。对宏观经济的担忧导致经济放缓,短期打击了石油需求,导致油价下跌。然而真正的债务危机很快会浮出水面,债务货币化和货币贬值又会长期托起油价。\n\n所以我一直在为此布局,今年下半年以来我不断减少科技股的持仓,开始配置大量的黄金、美债、以及能源和保险股(主要是西方石油、雪弗龙和联合健康)。我大概流动资产的配置是15%的美国短期债券,15%的股票,20%的美国长期国债,50%的黄金。\n\n长债和石油是相反的,短期利好,长期承压。长债之前被压抑了很久,随着降息周期和避险情绪的增加应该会有一波上涨行情。但是随着债务货币化,名义收益率会骤降,长期波动肯定会加大,所以我并不打算长期持有,会在降息周期中择机抛售,继续增持黄金,以及在低位配置能源股。\n\n最后我还想再说说巴菲特。很多人说巴菲特投资西方石油亏损了,因为他买了以后股价下跌了很多。其实巴菲特并没有亏,因为他除了购买了大量的普通股(这部分确实亏损了),但是他同时也购买了很多优先股。这部分的股价是不变的,而且每年还会给巴菲特8%的股息分红。这样一中和,巴菲特一点都不亏。这也非常符合巴菲特的投资性格,不渴求买到股价的最底部,只要有足够的安全边际就会毫不犹豫的下场。巴菲特可以说是对西方石油的信心与日俱增,不然也不会又花90多亿让其可以扩大能源项目的布局。然而我们买不到优先股,所以如果在巴菲特买股票的时候,也马上跟着买,持仓成本会比巴菲特高很多。所以我之前一直不买西方石油,只有在股价回调时大举进入。很多人说抄巴菲特作业亏本了,其实是不会抄罢了。抄作业也有技巧。我们必须把巴菲特的持仓成本做好换算后再抄作业。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979586375763771425","view_count":19045,"bookmark_count":40,"created_at":1760805145000,"favorite_count":82,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":12,"retweet_count":11,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979586375763771425","full_text":"今晚讲黄金和加密货币!过些日子讲债券配置:短债和货币基金有什么区别?TLT和直债如何选择?以及4大银行如何选择?(摩根大通、美国银行、摩根士丹利、汇丰)普通业务怎么选?外汇业务怎么选?投资业务怎么选?私人银行业务怎么选?中国、香港、新加坡、美国、瑞士怎么选?怎样全球资产配置可以如虎添翼?","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[33,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1674011365340778496","name":"G L","screen_name":"GL7525638026680","indices":[0,16]},{"id_str":"1161248776880832512","name":"David_Z","screen_name":"DavidZ11966088","indices":[17,32]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"GL7525638026680","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979577309876326683","view_count":6694,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1760802984000,"favorite_count":21,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1958544604820889790","full_text":"@GL7525638026680 @DavidZ11966088 短期震荡不可预测,长期必将一飞冲天。当年比特币的增长是什么水平,黄金就会怎么涨。比特币只号称是数字黄金,当债务货币化真正到来的时候,真正的黄金会一路高歌猛进。全球债务已经达到了史无前例的水平,黄金也会有史无前例的增长。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1674011365340778496","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1979572292418994602","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[16,38],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1161248776880832512","name":"David_Z","screen_name":"DavidZ11966088","indices":[0,15]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"DavidZ11966088","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979568994773553522","view_count":6088,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760801001000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1958544604820889790","full_text":"@DavidZ11966088 我刚刚为此写了一篇文章,你可以在我主页上看。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1161248776880832512","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1979319933113930001","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-20","value":0,"startTime":1760832000000,"endTime":1760918400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,116],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979845314447389073","view_count":67,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760866881000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979845314447389073","full_text":"杨振宁的科学成就是毋庸置疑的。至于他的人品和为人,我不认识他,所以完全无感,无所谓好坏。但是我感觉网上骂他的人,一大部分是因为羡慕嫉妒恨。他们要是有能力和统战价值,未必不去捞名捞利,未必不想找个年轻老婆,可惜他们没有这个能力和价值。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,77],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"2561532174","name":"Zhaonuo","screen_name":"gaoxiaoccp","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"gaoxiaoccp","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979765095661236226","view_count":1,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760847755000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979574646266802656","full_text":"@gaoxiaoccp 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中国文化中没有privacy和secrecy的区别。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1457238121679302657","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980118861254164694","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-22","value":4,"startTime":1761004800000,"endTime":1761091200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,141],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1980431376957513846","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/XAk9M456ZA","expanded":"https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1980431376957513846","display":"x.com/zerohedge/stat…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980471352504246759","view_count":3968,"bookmark_count":4,"created_at":1761016140000,"favorite_count":14,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980471352504246759","full_text":"1/3的美国人信用卡债务已经超过存款。这不仅仅是美国的问题,全世界都是如此。中国的隐性债更是大到难以估计。个人负债、国家负债、资不抵债成为全球经济的主旋律,美国作为火车头也深陷泥潭。自从有人类以来,全球债务水平没有这么高过。债务货币化不可避免,货币贬值板上钉钉,中长期黄金想跌都难。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-23","value":31,"startTime":1761091200000,"endTime":1761177600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,143],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980804450601357737","view_count":862,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761095557000,"favorite_count":7,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980804450601357737","full_text":"黄金暴跌?!简直就是笑话!相比黄金一直的大涨,这只能算是一个小小的波动。就算昨天跌完,单单最近一个月还是暴涨了10%。算上今年年初到现在,黄金涨过了我手上所有的股票,英伟达、标普、科技ETF、能源股。回调是加仓的好机会。牛市里千金难买牛回头,熊市里到处都是死猫条。黄金上涨的逻辑没改变。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,143],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980870679852650765","view_count":33429,"bookmark_count":30,"created_at":1761111347000,"favorite_count":199,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":23,"retweet_count":12,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980870679852650765","full_text":"黄金暴跌?!简直就是笑话!相比黄金一直的大涨,这只能算是一个小小的波动。就算昨天跌完,单单最近一个月还是暴涨了10%。算上今年年初到现在,黄金涨过了我手上所有的股票,英伟达、标普、科技ETF、能源股。回调是加仓的好机会。牛市里千金难买牛回头,熊市里到处都是死猫条。黄金上涨的逻辑没改变。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,63],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1366565625401909249","name":"Wall 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把白宫里面装修成金色是不够的,应该把外墙都贴上24k金,从此改名叫金宫。这才是留名青史的大功绩。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1366565625401909249","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981011584832204920","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-24","value":1479,"startTime":1761177600000,"endTime":1761264000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981386135763898725","view_count":2,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761234241000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1981386135763898725","full_text":"我前些天和德勤的一个中国区合伙人聊天,终于搞清楚了CRS的原理,也终于明白为什么美国明明不在CRS系统里面,但有些人用美国券商(如IBKR)还是会被追税。我今天就来讲一讲。顺便也说一下地下钱庄换汇和税务的风险,以及中国税务居民用美国银行卡+美资券商的相关问题。\n\nCRS是看不到你的交易明细的,只会看到你在CRS辖区内账户在几个时间点的资金额。当你的资金体量比较大的时候,你就可能被盯上。目前是各地税局分别负责,全国没有统一标准,但是金额门槛正在下沉。去年还只是查千万美金级别的户主,今年甚至有几十万美金的户主也中招。\n\n假如你有一张港卡,被CRS交换了,金额又达到了某个标准,那么税局就有可能会盯上你。这时候税局不是直接按照他们掌握的信息来收税,而是会要求你主动申报,要你把海外所有账户的银行流水、券商交易记录交出来,一般是看近3年的(有的甚至会要求看6年,但是你可以找会计和他们argue,有专业人士介入会好很多)。虽然税局本身看不到你的交易明细和流水,更看不到你美资券商的买卖记录,但问题是你敢不敢隐瞒呢?你要不要冒着犯罪的风险去造假流水呢?很多人不敢。这也是为什么很多人用美资券商还是会被收税。\n\n如果你是美国银行账户+美国券商,原则上不可能被CRS侦测到,中国税局也不会知道你在外国有账户,更不会找你索要信息。但在实操过程中,这样也存在很多问题。比如,中国人如何把大额资金弄到美国?大部分人的大额资金出境都要通过香港账户,因为香港是全世界对出入金监管最宽松的地方之一。\n\n美国对洗钱防范得特别严格。联邦法律规定一万美金以上的流动就要自动进入系统以备检查。所以出入金特别困难。如果外国人的账户长期有不同的外国人汇钱进来,很可能就会被封户。人在美国的外国人的账户会好很多,系统会备注你的信息,所以留学生收到国内很多汇款也一般不会出现问题。\n\n但是只要你人在美国半年以上,这就包括了所有留学生和在美工作的中国人,你的投资收益是要按照美国人的标准去交美国税的,这个税比中国的税还重。而且逃税的惩罚非常非常严重,美国税局IRS比中国要严厉很多。\n\n那能不能把钱汇给正在美国留学的孩子,然后再转去中国父母的美资券商账户呢?这样既不会被美国银行风控封户,也逃过了被CRS和中国税局的追踪,也不用交美国的税。答案是很难操作。因为法律规定,外国人在美国开的券商账户只接受同名账户的转账。当然你还是可以让子女再把钱一次性打到你的美国银行账户,再转入券商。因为是在美国国内亲属一次性打款的,不是很多个5万美金的境外汇款,这就不会引起风控。但是我必须说,我不是在鼓励大家逃税!\n\n但是这种方法不适合资金体量比较大的人操作,因为很难通过多个5万美金的蚂蚁搬家把钱汇出去。大部分人还是会选择地下钱庄来换钱,这又叫“对敲”。也就是你在中国往钱庄的中国境内账户打一笔钱,同时钱庄往你的境外账户打一笔等值的美金。都必须是即时到账,降低风险。大家都看到到账后,再马上打下一笔。这样敲几次,就把钱换走了。对敲被认为是最保险的,因为如果不是即时到账,谁都担心被骗。再说一遍,我不是在鼓励大家非法换汇。\n\n对敲一般只能用港卡,因为香港和中国一样,可以大额资金境内转账即时到账,而且不容易触发风控;而在美国就非常困难。一是美国即使是国内大额转账也不是即时到账,二是你的美国账户短时间收到好几笔大额款项,八成账户就会被封。\n\n但是港卡一旦有大额款项,通过CRS,中国税局就会知道你在海外有资金了。所以这就是为什么大部分有钱人走资以后,都会被CRS查到并要求补税。就是因为他们不得不用港卡走资。即使不用港卡,所有能满足对敲需求的地区都在CRS网络里面。\n\n今天我讲的是普通有钱人遇到的问题,明天我来讲一讲中国税局是如何对付企业家的。顶豪们早就在税局重点关注的名单上了,但同时也早就请律师和会计做好了各种架构,身份也移民了,早已不是中国税务居民,钱也不是通过地下钱庄,而是通过外资股东分红和一层层壳公司,用各种复杂的商业操作换走的,非常难被穿透。但是现在中国税局也进化出了一套方法,让这些人的海外收入缴税。明天再讲其中的门道。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981387300069134635","view_count":179390,"bookmark_count":1407,"created_at":1761234519000,"favorite_count":1113,"quote_count":5,"reply_count":40,"retweet_count":258,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1981387300069134635","full_text":"我最近找德勤做了点业务,终于搞清楚了CRS的原理,也终于明白了为什么美国明明不在CRS里面,但有些人用美国券商(如IBKR)还是会被追税。顺便也说一下地下钱庄换汇和税务的风险,以及中国人用美国银行卡+美资券商的相关问题。这绝对是全网相关议题最详细和深入的讨论!\n\nCRS是看不到你的交易明细的,只会看到你在CRS辖区内账户在几个时间点的资金额。当你的资金体量比较大的时候,你就可能被盯上。目前是各地税局分别负责,全国没有统一标准,但是金额门槛正在下沉。去年还只是查千万美金级别的户主,今年甚至有几十万美金的户主也中招。\n\n假如你有一张港卡,被CRS交换了,金额又达到了某个标准,那么税局就有可能会盯上你。这时候税局不是直接按照他们掌握的信息来收税,而是会要求你主动申报,要你把海外所有账户的银行流水、券商交易记录交出来,一般是看近3年的(有的甚至会要求看6年,但是你可以找会计和他们argue,有专业人士介入会好很多)。虽然税局本身看不到你的交易明细和流水,更看不到你美资券商的买卖记录,但问题是你敢不敢隐瞒呢?你要不要冒着犯罪的风险去造假流水呢?很多人不敢。这也是为什么很多人用美资券商还是会被收税。\n\n如果你是美国银行账户+美国券商,原则上不可能被CRS侦测到,中国税局也不会知道你在外国有账户,更不会找你索要信息。但在实操过程中,这样也存在很多问题。比如,中国人如何把大额资金弄到美国?大部分人的大额资金出境都要通过香港账户,因为香港是全世界对出入金监管最宽松的地方之一。\n\n美国对洗钱防范得特别严格。联邦法律规定一万美金以上的流动就要自动进入系统以备检查。所以出入金特别困难。如果外国人的账户长期有不同的外国人汇钱进来,很可能就会被封户。人在美国的外国人的账户会好很多,系统会备注你的信息,所以留学生收到国内很多汇款也一般不会出现问题。\n\n但是只要你人在美国半年以上,这就包括了所有留学生和在美工作的中国人,你的投资收益是要按照美国人的标准去交美国税的,这个税比中国的税还重。而且逃税的惩罚非常非常严重,美国税局IRS比中国要严厉很多。\n\n那能不能把钱汇给正在美国留学的孩子,然后再转去中国父母的美资券商账户呢?这样既不会被美国银行风控封户,也逃过了被CRS和中国税局的追踪,也不用交美国的税。答案是很难操作。因为法律规定,外国人在美国开的券商账户只接受同名账户的转账。当然你还是可以让子女再把钱一次性打到你的美国银行账户,再转入券商。因为是在美国国内亲属一次性打款的,不是很多个5万美金的境外汇款,这就不会引起风控。但是我必须说,我不是在鼓励大家逃税!\n\n但是这种方法不适合资金体量比较大的人操作,因为很难通过多个5万美金的蚂蚁搬家把钱汇出去。大部分人还是会选择地下钱庄来换钱,这又叫“对敲”。也就是你在中国往钱庄的中国境内账户打一笔钱,同时钱庄往你的境外账户打一笔等值的美金。都必须是即时到账,降低风险。大家都看到到账后,再马上打下一笔。这样敲几次,就把钱换走了。对敲被认为是最保险的,因为如果不是即时到账,谁都担心被骗。再说一遍,我不是在鼓励大家非法换汇。\n\n对敲一般只能用港卡,因为香港和中国一样,可以大额资金境内转账即时到账,而且不容易触发风控;而在美国就非常困难。一是美国即使是国内大额转账也不是即时到账,二是你的美国账户短时间收到好几笔大额款项,八成账户就会被封。\n\n但是港卡一旦有大额款项,通过CRS,中国税局就会知道你在海外有资金了。所以这就是为什么大部分有钱人走资以后,都会被CRS查到并要求补税。就是因为他们不得不用港卡走资。即使不用港卡,所有能满足对敲需求的地区都在CRS网络里面。\n\n今天我讲的是普通有钱人遇到的问题,明天我来讲一讲中国税局是如何对付企业家的。顶豪们早就在税局重点关注的名单上了,但同时也早就请律师和会计做好了各种架构,身份也移民了,早已不是中国税务居民,钱也不是通过地下钱庄,而是通过外资股东分红和一层层壳公司,用各种复杂的商业操作换走的,非常难被穿透。但是现在中国税局也进化出了一套方法,让这些人的海外收入缴税。明天再讲其中的门道。为什么你移民到了国外,依然可能会被中国税局追税?他们又是如何做到的。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,19],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps"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Don’t despair; America will come back and so will Berkshire shares.\n\n注意,这里用的是未来时,也就是巴菲特预计未来股价会大幅波动,而且会下跌50%。\n\n结合巴菲特在早前的股东大会说,他不希望预测时间,但他觉得重大的投资机会会在5年内出现;以及他说,没有人愿意持有正在奔向地狱的货币。我还在消化这里面的信息。之后再和大家细聊。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,105],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988253398010036397","view_count":46697,"bookmark_count":111,"created_at":1762871524000,"favorite_count":210,"quote_count":6,"reply_count":20,"retweet_count":29,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988253398010036397","full_text":"巴菲特给股东写了一封长信,并宣称之后会安静下来,和股东沟通的任务交给新CEO。他几乎没有评价现在的市场。但却单独起了一段只讲了一句话:我们的股价将会大幅波动,偶尔会下跌大约 50%,在现任管理层执掌公司的 60 年里,这种情况已经发生过三次。不要灰心,美国会再度振作,伯克希尔的股价也会随之回升。\n\n巴菲特的这封长信主要是在回顾人生,初看非常励志、非常暖心。但当我看到那句话时,我惊出一身冷汗。这仿佛是在大灾难之前给人们做好心理建设。\n\nOur stock price will move capriciously, occasionally falling 50% or so as has happened three times in 60 years under present management. Don’t despair; America will come back and so will Berkshire shares.\n\n注意,这里用的是未来时,也就是巴菲特预计未来股价会大幅波动,而且会下跌50%。\n\n巴菲特几十年来撰写的所有的股东信我都读过,他这些年的每一个年会和采访我都看过。巴菲特说话从来都很含蓄,从来不会完全说破。对于不熟悉他风格的人,乍听一下,他说的每一句话都没有什么深意。比如上面那句话,任何时候、任何公司的股价都可能大幅波动甚至腰斩,尤其是在一个很长的时间线上。但是当你听他说话多了以后,就会发现他有个习惯,每说一句话都要停下来想一想,每一句话都不是随口乱说的。他非常讲究在什么时间说什么话。比如在早前的几次股灾中,他会说要注意估值风险。这句话看似也是没有什么意义。投资什么时候不应该关心估值风险呢?但巴菲特只会在他觉得市场泡沫的时候这样说。在他要大举出手买货的时候,他会说宁愿花不便宜的价钱买好公司。\n\n巴菲特之所以是股神,并不是他能押中最赚钱的股票,而是他践行了他的名言:只有当潮水退去时,才知道谁在裸泳。\n\n结合巴菲特在早前的股东大会上的说法,他不希望预测时间,但他觉得重大的投资机会会在5年内出现;以及他说,没有人愿意持有正在奔向地狱的货币。我还在消化这里面的信息。之后再和大家细聊。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[9,93],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"945607507510038528","name":"Pathfinder","screen_name":"Pathusa","indices":[0,8]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Pathusa","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988242829651608061","view_count":1979,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1762869005000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1987933646767136949","full_text":"@Pathusa Circle有两个致命问题。盈利高度依赖国债收益率,跟coinbase签订了无法解约的卖身契。Circle除非找到新的增长点,才有大爆发的潜力。现在这个价位还不够安全。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"945607507510038528","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987933646767136949","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-13","value":0,"startTime":1762905600000,"endTime":1762992000000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-14","value":62,"startTime":1762992000000,"endTime":1763078400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,140],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988986827848798543","view_count":33,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763046388000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988986827848798543","full_text":"巴菲特曾经赞扬过中国对加密行业的管制。其实中国政府做得非常差,漏洞到处都是。我认为支付宝和微信出入金加密货币,应该立刻封号。这已经成为电信诈骗利用的漏洞。目前英美的汇丰银行、摩根大通才真正走在了风控的前列,基本上离岸账户(非开户行所在地居民的账号)在加密货币出入金就会被终身封户。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,143],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988993507542069645","view_count":26,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763047980000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988993507542069645","full_text":"中国应效法美国,向境外汇款超过1万美金,必须合规审查,没有备案的加密货币交易,或境外账户的买卖,终身封户(美国叫做debank)。境内用户也必须要在交易所报备个人社会信用信息才能交易。中国的国际汇款和加密货币出入金既没和个人征信绑定,违规也不封卡、封微信,政府不作为,电诈才有可乘之机!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1988893869212139873","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/J7x0x5DgHO","expanded":"https://twitter.com/ipaulcanada/status/1988893869212139873","display":"x.com/ipaulcanada/st…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989012531592196460","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763052516000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989012531592196460","full_text":"做空的前提是赚钱而不是赌气。21年卖房买美股,25年再低价买回来,然后超低利息贷给银行,套钱出来买黄金。生娃生三个,每胎拿补贴。黄金不变现,加上银行贷款是负债,千万富翁白嫖低保。银行要完成社融数据,心甘情愿被你薅羊毛。这才是在中国生活的最高境界。那些不生孩子,不买房的,都在给你打工。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1988893869212139873","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/J7x0x5DgHO","expanded":"https://twitter.com/ipaulcanada/status/1988893869212139873","display":"x.com/ipaulcanada/st…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989012279996871062","view_count":43,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763052456000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989012279996871062","full_text":"做空的前提是赚钱而不是赌气。21年卖房买美股,25年再低价买回来,然后超低利息贷给银行,套钱出来买黄金。生娃生三个,每胎拿补贴。黄金不变现,加上银行贷款是负债,千万富翁白嫖低保。银行要完成社融数据,心甘情愿被你薅羊毛。这才是在中国生活的最高境界。那些不生孩子,不买房,都是在给你打工。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,140],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989015555748294766","view_count":42911,"bookmark_count":60,"created_at":1763053237000,"favorite_count":238,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":16,"retweet_count":21,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989015555748294766","full_text":"大家记得,牛市让你赚小钱,熊市才让你发大财。牛市中大家都在赚钱,你只能保证不掉队,或者缓慢爬坡。熊市里大家都不赚钱,但你把握住了机会,就会一举跨越阶级。所以强者永远不抱怨这里经济不好,也不羡慕那里大环境更好。顶级投资者,包括股神巴菲特,往往在牛市里表现平平,但熊市一来,一飞冲天。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1820104162715246592","name":"malaimo","screen_name":"0rain4fall","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"0rain4fall","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989017760803008630","view_count":8303,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1763053762000,"favorite_count":18,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988930609809695067","full_text":"@0rain4fall 叶文洁是自己按的。首先叶文洁有那个本事,才有资格去按那个按钮。你若不是叶文洁,就忍着吧。即使你是,按了以后也要再等400年。人生像油条,要想成熟先煎熬。而且话说回来。有的人真可悲,绝望的时候宁可选择毁灭,也不去信靠能带来救赎的耶稣基督。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1820104162715246592","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1988930609809695067","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-15","value":19,"startTime":1763078400000,"endTime":1763164800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,14],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1985737463823011847","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/xiBsvWdxPC","expanded":"https://twitter.com/realtaoray/status/1985737463823011847","display":"x.com/realtaoray/sta…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989127805507105041","view_count":683,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763079999000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989127805507105041","full_text":"我这个空单的含金量还在上升!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,84],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989134466900808016","view_count":33951,"bookmark_count":19,"created_at":1763081587000,"favorite_count":57,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":13,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989134466900808016","full_text":"何同学进军英文油管。大有成为华人第一YouTuber的驾驶。短短几个视频,已经超越百万订阅,单个视频播放量也在百万上下。我觉得他的视频是挺有意思,比飓风影音好看太多了。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,47],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989183690363249058","view_count":128,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763093323000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989183690363249058","full_text":"大空头Michael Burry的例子告诉我们:所谓的人生发财靠康波,其实是,坑你一波又一波。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,61],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"realTaoRay","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989125269731655997","view_count":1677,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763079395000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989015555748294766","full_text":"我说的不是美股,美股还在牛市里,虽然要居安思危。我说的是中国。我看到网上很多绝望的声音,甚至有人说要叶文洁按电钮之类的话。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989015555748294766","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-16","value":0,"startTime":1763164800000,"endTime":1763251200000,"tweets":[]}],"nretweets":[{"label":"2025-10-17","value":0,"startTime":1760572800000,"endTime":1760659200000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-18","value":0,"startTime":1760659200000,"endTime":1760745600000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-19","value":62,"startTime":1760745600000,"endTime":1760832000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979568813151850933","view_count":264,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760800958000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979568813151850933","full_text":"我非常看好西方石油。在投资之前,我曾经亲自走访过它的公司和油田,研究其财报。深入调查后,我信心满满。最近的回调给了我继续加仓的大好良机。赚钱的机会往往出现在被市场错杀的时候。我简要分享我长期看好西方石油的逻辑,为何分析师错的离谱,以及我最新的资产配置。\n\n1. 最近西方股价下杀,有两大原因。一是国际油价下跌,第二是西方石油把其化工产业卖给了巴菲特的伯克希尔。很多分析师觉得西方石油把一块非常有利润的业务舍弃了,所以引起恐慌抛售。然而这是完全不理性的。第一,西方石油拿到了九十多亿的现金,能够让其财务更健康。具体财务分析我就不细说了,然而我想强调,巴菲特作为西方石油最大的股东,怎么可能花钱做不利于西方石油的收购呢?搬起石头砸自己的脚?让自己的股份贬值吗?这显然不可能。在巴菲特完成收购后,西方石油CEO Hollub在上个礼拜说西方石油之后将会财务更加稳健,业务更加集中,增加更加迅速,计划股价在五年内翻倍。这是得到了巴菲特背书的测算。在现在的投机环境下,这是相当可观的增长。\n\n2. 巴菲特讲过投资西方石油是他对未来AI时代的布局。AI一定会导致电力需求暴增,而西方石油的天然气业务一定会迎来爆炸式增长。这也是个AI时代卖铲子的好生意。现在美国的电力已经出现严重短缺,建立新的发电厂的投资络绎不绝,电力设备公司的股价已经屡创新高,相信这股势头很快就会传导到能源公司。巴菲特也明确说明收购西方石油的化工业务也是为了能让西方石油能够有更多资金,集中全部资源发展核心能源业务,把握住未来AI时代的大趋势。这绝对是非常明智的长远战略布局。这就像一个企业家有一个稳定收租的豪宅,当市场的大机会来临时,对于企业家来说,卖掉这个豪宅给一个有钱,且只想经营被动收入的老人,拿一大笔钱去做自己擅长的大生意才是最明智的。这对于企业家和老人是真正的双赢,而且老人本身也是企业家生意的第一大股东。如果市场分析师解读为企业家放弃了优良资产那是大错特错的。所以我觉得市场完全错误评估了这场收购。\n\n3. 最近美国股市波动加大,银行坏账问题浮出水面,市场避险情绪急剧升温。未来的宏观经济并不容乐观,所以对经济放缓的担忧打击了油价。然而经济放缓的底层原因是什么呢?是债务货币化。全球债务水平已经不可持续,美国的债务利息支出都已经超过了军费,而且还在上升。最后不可避免要通过超发货币来解决债务问题。美国通胀依旧保持在高位,但是经济和就业已经放缓,不得不进入降息周期,这让货币贬值的压力进一步增大。这也是黄金作为抗击货币贬值的终极利器为何迎来历史性大涨。石油虽然会受到经济周期的影响,在经济放缓中需求减弱,但是石油具作为能源必需品和大宗商品,具有强定价权,所以长期看石油公司总是能够在不确定性中穿越宏观周期的,是典型的防御性板块,尤其是能够抵抗货币面值。我相信这也是为什么巴菲特在不看好宏观经济的情况下,却一直大举加仓西方石油和雪佛龙。\n\n这是一脉相承的,债务危机不断累积,风险资产、股市和加密货币开始宽幅震荡,黄金价格暴涨。对宏观经济的担忧首先影响了经济活力和就业,导致经济放缓,短期打击了石油需求,油价下跌。然而真正的病根,债务危机,很快会浮出水面,债务货币化和货币贬值会接踵而来,这又会长期托起油价。\n\n所以我一直在为此布局,今年下半年以来我不断减少科技股的持仓,开始配置大量的黄金、美债、以及能源和保险股(主要是西方石油、雪弗龙和联合健康)。我大概流动资产的配置是15%的美国短期债券,15%的股票,20%的美国长期国债,50%的黄金。\n\n长债和石油是相反的,短期利好,长期却承压。长债之前被压抑了很久,随着降息周期和避险情绪的增加应该会有一波上涨行情。但是随着债务货币化,名义收益率会骤降,长期波动肯定会加大,所以我并不打算长期持有,会在降息周期中择机抛售,继续增持黄金,以及在低位配置能源股。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,141],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979574646266802656","view_count":50942,"bookmark_count":212,"created_at":1760802349000,"favorite_count":261,"quote_count":3,"reply_count":29,"retweet_count":48,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979574646266802656","full_text":"我非常看好西方石油。在投资之前,我曾亲自走访过它的油田,研究其财报。最近的回调给了我继续加仓的大好良机。赚钱的机会往往出现在被市场错杀的时候。未来是AI革命与宏观经济危机并存的年代,所以投资上有很多的挑战,看了这篇文章你就会理解为何投资西方石油是巴菲特应对危机和技术革命的神来之笔。\n\n1. 最近西方股价下杀,有两大原因。一是国际油价下跌,第二是西方石油把其化工产业卖给了巴菲特的伯克希尔。很多人觉得西方石油把一块非常有利润的业务舍弃了,所以引起恐慌抛售。然而这是完全不理性的。第一,西方石油拿到了九十多亿的现金,能够让其财务更健康。具体财务分析我就不细说了,然而我想强调,巴菲特作为西方石油最大的股东,怎么可能花钱做不利于西方石油的收购呢?搬起石头砸自己的脚?让自己的股份贬值吗?这显然不可能。在巴菲特完成收购后,西方石油CEO Hollub在上个礼拜说西方石油之后将会财务更加稳健,业务更加集中,增加更加迅速,计划股价在五年内翻倍。这是得到了巴菲特背书的测算。在现在的投机环境下,这是相当可观的增长。\n\n2. 巴菲特讲过投资西方石油是他对未来AI时代的布局。AI一定会导致电力需求暴增,而西方石油的天然气业务一定会迎来爆炸式增长。这也是个AI时代卖铲子的好生意。现在美国的电力已经出现严重短缺,建立新的发电厂的投资络绎不绝,电力设备公司的股价已经屡创新高,相信这股势头很快就会传导到能源公司。巴菲特也明确说明收购西方石油的化工业务也是为了能让西方石油能够有更多资金,集中全部资源发展核心能源业务,把握住这个未来的大趋势。这绝对是非常明智的长远战略布局。这就像一个企业家有一个稳定收租的豪宅,当市场机会来临时,对于企业家来说,卖掉这个豪宅给一个有钱,且只想经营被动收入的老人,拿一大笔钱去做自己擅长的大生意才是最明智的。这对于企业家和老人是真正的双赢,而且老人本身也是企业家生意的第一大股东。如果市场解读为企业家放弃了优良资产那是大错特错的。所以我觉得市场完全错误估计了这场收购。\n\n3. 最近美国股市波动加大,银行坏账问题浮出水面,市场避险情绪急剧升温。未来的宏观经济并不容乐观,所以对经济放缓的担忧打击了油价。然而经济放缓的底层原因是什么呢?是债务货币化。全球债务水平已经不可持续,美国的债务利息支出都已经超过了军费,而且还在上升。最后不可避免要通过超发货币来解决债务问题。美国通胀依旧保持在高位,但是经济和就业已经放缓,不得不进入降息周期,这让货币贬值的压力进一步增大。这也是黄金作为抗击货币贬值的终极利器为何迎来历史性大涨。石油虽然会受到经济周期的影响,在经济放缓中需求减弱,但是石油具作为能源必需品和大宗商品,具有强定价权,所以长期看石油公司总是能够在不确定性中穿越宏观周期的,是典型的防御性板块,尤其是能够抵抗货币面值。我相信这也是为什么巴菲特在不看好宏观经济的情况下,却一直大举加仓西方石油和雪佛龙。\n\n这是一脉相承的,债务危机不断累积,风险资产、股市和加密货币开始宽幅震荡,黄金价格暴涨。对宏观经济的担忧导致经济放缓,短期打击了石油需求,导致油价下跌。然而真正的债务危机很快会浮出水面,债务货币化和货币贬值又会长期托起油价。\n\n所以我一直在为此布局,今年下半年以来我不断减少科技股的持仓,开始配置大量的黄金、美债、以及能源和保险股(主要是西方石油、雪弗龙和联合健康)。我大概流动资产的配置是15%的美国短期债券,15%的股票,20%的美国长期国债,50%的黄金。\n\n长债和石油是相反的,短期利好,长期承压。长债之前被压抑了很久,随着降息周期和避险情绪的增加应该会有一波上涨行情。但是随着债务货币化,名义收益率会骤降,长期波动肯定会加大,所以我并不打算长期持有,会在降息周期中择机抛售,继续增持黄金,以及在低位配置能源股。\n\n最后我还想再说说巴菲特。很多人说巴菲特投资西方石油亏损了,因为他买了以后股价下跌了很多。其实巴菲特并没有亏,因为他除了购买了大量的普通股(这部分确实亏损了),但是他同时也购买了很多优先股。这部分的股价是不变的,而且每年还会给巴菲特8%的股息分红。这样一中和,巴菲特一点都不亏。这也非常符合巴菲特的投资性格,不渴求买到股价的最底部,只要有足够的安全边际就会毫不犹豫的下场。巴菲特可以说是对西方石油的信心与日俱增,不然也不会又花90多亿让其可以扩大能源项目的布局。然而我们买不到优先股,所以如果在巴菲特买股票的时候,也马上跟着买,持仓成本会比巴菲特高很多。所以我之前一直不买西方石油,只有在股价回调时大举进入。很多人说抄巴菲特作业亏本了,其实是不会抄罢了。抄作业也有技巧。我们必须把巴菲特的持仓成本做好换算后再抄作业。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979586375763771425","view_count":19045,"bookmark_count":40,"created_at":1760805145000,"favorite_count":82,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":12,"retweet_count":11,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979586375763771425","full_text":"今晚讲黄金和加密货币!过些日子讲债券配置:短债和货币基金有什么区别?TLT和直债如何选择?以及4大银行如何选择?(摩根大通、美国银行、摩根士丹利、汇丰)普通业务怎么选?外汇业务怎么选?投资业务怎么选?私人银行业务怎么选?中国、香港、新加坡、美国、瑞士怎么选?怎样全球资产配置可以如虎添翼?","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[33,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1674011365340778496","name":"G L","screen_name":"GL7525638026680","indices":[0,16]},{"id_str":"1161248776880832512","name":"David_Z","screen_name":"DavidZ11966088","indices":[17,32]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"GL7525638026680","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979577309876326683","view_count":6694,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1760802984000,"favorite_count":21,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1958544604820889790","full_text":"@GL7525638026680 @DavidZ11966088 短期震荡不可预测,长期必将一飞冲天。当年比特币的增长是什么水平,黄金就会怎么涨。比特币只号称是数字黄金,当债务货币化真正到来的时候,真正的黄金会一路高歌猛进。全球债务已经达到了史无前例的水平,黄金也会有史无前例的增长。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1674011365340778496","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1979572292418994602","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[16,38],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1161248776880832512","name":"David_Z","screen_name":"DavidZ11966088","indices":[0,15]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"DavidZ11966088","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979568994773553522","view_count":6088,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760801001000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1958544604820889790","full_text":"@DavidZ11966088 我刚刚为此写了一篇文章,你可以在我主页上看。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1161248776880832512","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1979319933113930001","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-20","value":1,"startTime":1760832000000,"endTime":1760918400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,116],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979845314447389073","view_count":67,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760866881000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979845314447389073","full_text":"杨振宁的科学成就是毋庸置疑的。至于他的人品和为人,我不认识他,所以完全无感,无所谓好坏。但是我感觉网上骂他的人,一大部分是因为羡慕嫉妒恨。他们要是有能力和统战价值,未必不去捞名捞利,未必不想找个年轻老婆,可惜他们没有这个能力和价值。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,77],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"2561532174","name":"Zhaonuo","screen_name":"gaoxiaoccp","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"gaoxiaoccp","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979765095661236226","view_count":1,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760847755000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979574646266802656","full_text":"@gaoxiaoccp 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把白宫里面装修成金色是不够的,应该把外墙都贴上24k金,从此改名叫金宫。这才是留名青史的大功绩。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1366565625401909249","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981011584832204920","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-24","value":270,"startTime":1761177600000,"endTime":1761264000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981386135763898725","view_count":2,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761234241000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1981386135763898725","full_text":"我前些天和德勤的一个中国区合伙人聊天,终于搞清楚了CRS的原理,也终于明白为什么美国明明不在CRS系统里面,但有些人用美国券商(如IBKR)还是会被追税。我今天就来讲一讲。顺便也说一下地下钱庄换汇和税务的风险,以及中国税务居民用美国银行卡+美资券商的相关问题。\n\nCRS是看不到你的交易明细的,只会看到你在CRS辖区内账户在几个时间点的资金额。当你的资金体量比较大的时候,你就可能被盯上。目前是各地税局分别负责,全国没有统一标准,但是金额门槛正在下沉。去年还只是查千万美金级别的户主,今年甚至有几十万美金的户主也中招。\n\n假如你有一张港卡,被CRS交换了,金额又达到了某个标准,那么税局就有可能会盯上你。这时候税局不是直接按照他们掌握的信息来收税,而是会要求你主动申报,要你把海外所有账户的银行流水、券商交易记录交出来,一般是看近3年的(有的甚至会要求看6年,但是你可以找会计和他们argue,有专业人士介入会好很多)。虽然税局本身看不到你的交易明细和流水,更看不到你美资券商的买卖记录,但问题是你敢不敢隐瞒呢?你要不要冒着犯罪的风险去造假流水呢?很多人不敢。这也是为什么很多人用美资券商还是会被收税。\n\n如果你是美国银行账户+美国券商,原则上不可能被CRS侦测到,中国税局也不会知道你在外国有账户,更不会找你索要信息。但在实操过程中,这样也存在很多问题。比如,中国人如何把大额资金弄到美国?大部分人的大额资金出境都要通过香港账户,因为香港是全世界对出入金监管最宽松的地方之一。\n\n美国对洗钱防范得特别严格。联邦法律规定一万美金以上的流动就要自动进入系统以备检查。所以出入金特别困难。如果外国人的账户长期有不同的外国人汇钱进来,很可能就会被封户。人在美国的外国人的账户会好很多,系统会备注你的信息,所以留学生收到国内很多汇款也一般不会出现问题。\n\n但是只要你人在美国半年以上,这就包括了所有留学生和在美工作的中国人,你的投资收益是要按照美国人的标准去交美国税的,这个税比中国的税还重。而且逃税的惩罚非常非常严重,美国税局IRS比中国要严厉很多。\n\n那能不能把钱汇给正在美国留学的孩子,然后再转去中国父母的美资券商账户呢?这样既不会被美国银行风控封户,也逃过了被CRS和中国税局的追踪,也不用交美国的税。答案是很难操作。因为法律规定,外国人在美国开的券商账户只接受同名账户的转账。当然你还是可以让子女再把钱一次性打到你的美国银行账户,再转入券商。因为是在美国国内亲属一次性打款的,不是很多个5万美金的境外汇款,这就不会引起风控。但是我必须说,我不是在鼓励大家逃税!\n\n但是这种方法不适合资金体量比较大的人操作,因为很难通过多个5万美金的蚂蚁搬家把钱汇出去。大部分人还是会选择地下钱庄来换钱,这又叫“对敲”。也就是你在中国往钱庄的中国境内账户打一笔钱,同时钱庄往你的境外账户打一笔等值的美金。都必须是即时到账,降低风险。大家都看到到账后,再马上打下一笔。这样敲几次,就把钱换走了。对敲被认为是最保险的,因为如果不是即时到账,谁都担心被骗。再说一遍,我不是在鼓励大家非法换汇。\n\n对敲一般只能用港卡,因为香港和中国一样,可以大额资金境内转账即时到账,而且不容易触发风控;而在美国就非常困难。一是美国即使是国内大额转账也不是即时到账,二是你的美国账户短时间收到好几笔大额款项,八成账户就会被封。\n\n但是港卡一旦有大额款项,通过CRS,中国税局就会知道你在海外有资金了。所以这就是为什么大部分有钱人走资以后,都会被CRS查到并要求补税。就是因为他们不得不用港卡走资。即使不用港卡,所有能满足对敲需求的地区都在CRS网络里面。\n\n今天我讲的是普通有钱人遇到的问题,明天我来讲一讲中国税局是如何对付企业家的。顶豪们早就在税局重点关注的名单上了,但同时也早就请律师和会计做好了各种架构,身份也移民了,早已不是中国税务居民,钱也不是通过地下钱庄,而是通过外资股东分红和一层层壳公司,用各种复杂的商业操作换走的,非常难被穿透。但是现在中国税局也进化出了一套方法,让这些人的海外收入缴税。明天再讲其中的门道。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981387300069134635","view_count":179390,"bookmark_count":1407,"created_at":1761234519000,"favorite_count":1113,"quote_count":5,"reply_count":40,"retweet_count":258,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1981387300069134635","full_text":"我最近找德勤做了点业务,终于搞清楚了CRS的原理,也终于明白了为什么美国明明不在CRS里面,但有些人用美国券商(如IBKR)还是会被追税。顺便也说一下地下钱庄换汇和税务的风险,以及中国人用美国银行卡+美资券商的相关问题。这绝对是全网相关议题最详细和深入的讨论!\n\nCRS是看不到你的交易明细的,只会看到你在CRS辖区内账户在几个时间点的资金额。当你的资金体量比较大的时候,你就可能被盯上。目前是各地税局分别负责,全国没有统一标准,但是金额门槛正在下沉。去年还只是查千万美金级别的户主,今年甚至有几十万美金的户主也中招。\n\n假如你有一张港卡,被CRS交换了,金额又达到了某个标准,那么税局就有可能会盯上你。这时候税局不是直接按照他们掌握的信息来收税,而是会要求你主动申报,要你把海外所有账户的银行流水、券商交易记录交出来,一般是看近3年的(有的甚至会要求看6年,但是你可以找会计和他们argue,有专业人士介入会好很多)。虽然税局本身看不到你的交易明细和流水,更看不到你美资券商的买卖记录,但问题是你敢不敢隐瞒呢?你要不要冒着犯罪的风险去造假流水呢?很多人不敢。这也是为什么很多人用美资券商还是会被收税。\n\n如果你是美国银行账户+美国券商,原则上不可能被CRS侦测到,中国税局也不会知道你在外国有账户,更不会找你索要信息。但在实操过程中,这样也存在很多问题。比如,中国人如何把大额资金弄到美国?大部分人的大额资金出境都要通过香港账户,因为香港是全世界对出入金监管最宽松的地方之一。\n\n美国对洗钱防范得特别严格。联邦法律规定一万美金以上的流动就要自动进入系统以备检查。所以出入金特别困难。如果外国人的账户长期有不同的外国人汇钱进来,很可能就会被封户。人在美国的外国人的账户会好很多,系统会备注你的信息,所以留学生收到国内很多汇款也一般不会出现问题。\n\n但是只要你人在美国半年以上,这就包括了所有留学生和在美工作的中国人,你的投资收益是要按照美国人的标准去交美国税的,这个税比中国的税还重。而且逃税的惩罚非常非常严重,美国税局IRS比中国要严厉很多。\n\n那能不能把钱汇给正在美国留学的孩子,然后再转去中国父母的美资券商账户呢?这样既不会被美国银行风控封户,也逃过了被CRS和中国税局的追踪,也不用交美国的税。答案是很难操作。因为法律规定,外国人在美国开的券商账户只接受同名账户的转账。当然你还是可以让子女再把钱一次性打到你的美国银行账户,再转入券商。因为是在美国国内亲属一次性打款的,不是很多个5万美金的境外汇款,这就不会引起风控。但是我必须说,我不是在鼓励大家逃税!\n\n但是这种方法不适合资金体量比较大的人操作,因为很难通过多个5万美金的蚂蚁搬家把钱汇出去。大部分人还是会选择地下钱庄来换钱,这又叫“对敲”。也就是你在中国往钱庄的中国境内账户打一笔钱,同时钱庄往你的境外账户打一笔等值的美金。都必须是即时到账,降低风险。大家都看到到账后,再马上打下一笔。这样敲几次,就把钱换走了。对敲被认为是最保险的,因为如果不是即时到账,谁都担心被骗。再说一遍,我不是在鼓励大家非法换汇。\n\n对敲一般只能用港卡,因为香港和中国一样,可以大额资金境内转账即时到账,而且不容易触发风控;而在美国就非常困难。一是美国即使是国内大额转账也不是即时到账,二是你的美国账户短时间收到好几笔大额款项,八成账户就会被封。\n\n但是港卡一旦有大额款项,通过CRS,中国税局就会知道你在海外有资金了。所以这就是为什么大部分有钱人走资以后,都会被CRS查到并要求补税。就是因为他们不得不用港卡走资。即使不用港卡,所有能满足对敲需求的地区都在CRS网络里面。\n\n今天我讲的是普通有钱人遇到的问题,明天我来讲一讲中国税局是如何对付企业家的。顶豪们早就在税局重点关注的名单上了,但同时也早就请律师和会计做好了各种架构,身份也移民了,早已不是中国税务居民,钱也不是通过地下钱庄,而是通过外资股东分红和一层层壳公司,用各种复杂的商业操作换走的,非常难被穿透。但是现在中国税局也进化出了一套方法,让这些人的海外收入缴税。明天再讲其中的门道。为什么你移民到了国外,依然可能会被中国税局追税?他们又是如何做到的。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,19],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":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Don’t despair; America will come back and so will Berkshire shares.\n\n注意,这里用的是未来时,也就是巴菲特预计未来股价会大幅波动,而且会下跌50%。\n\n结合巴菲特在早前的股东大会说,他不希望预测时间,但他觉得重大的投资机会会在5年内出现;以及他说,没有人愿意持有正在奔向地狱的货币。我还在消化这里面的信息。之后再和大家细聊。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,105],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988253398010036397","view_count":46697,"bookmark_count":111,"created_at":1762871524000,"favorite_count":210,"quote_count":6,"reply_count":20,"retweet_count":29,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988253398010036397","full_text":"巴菲特给股东写了一封长信,并宣称之后会安静下来,和股东沟通的任务交给新CEO。他几乎没有评价现在的市场。但却单独起了一段只讲了一句话:我们的股价将会大幅波动,偶尔会下跌大约 50%,在现任管理层执掌公司的 60 年里,这种情况已经发生过三次。不要灰心,美国会再度振作,伯克希尔的股价也会随之回升。\n\n巴菲特的这封长信主要是在回顾人生,初看非常励志、非常暖心。但当我看到那句话时,我惊出一身冷汗。这仿佛是在大灾难之前给人们做好心理建设。\n\nOur stock price will move capriciously, occasionally falling 50% or so as has happened three times in 60 years under present management. Don’t despair; America will come back and so will Berkshire shares.\n\n注意,这里用的是未来时,也就是巴菲特预计未来股价会大幅波动,而且会下跌50%。\n\n巴菲特几十年来撰写的所有的股东信我都读过,他这些年的每一个年会和采访我都看过。巴菲特说话从来都很含蓄,从来不会完全说破。对于不熟悉他风格的人,乍听一下,他说的每一句话都没有什么深意。比如上面那句话,任何时候、任何公司的股价都可能大幅波动甚至腰斩,尤其是在一个很长的时间线上。但是当你听他说话多了以后,就会发现他有个习惯,每说一句话都要停下来想一想,每一句话都不是随口乱说的。他非常讲究在什么时间说什么话。比如在早前的几次股灾中,他会说要注意估值风险。这句话看似也是没有什么意义。投资什么时候不应该关心估值风险呢?但巴菲特只会在他觉得市场泡沫的时候这样说。在他要大举出手买货的时候,他会说宁愿花不便宜的价钱买好公司。\n\n巴菲特之所以是股神,并不是他能押中最赚钱的股票,而是他践行了他的名言:只有当潮水退去时,才知道谁在裸泳。\n\n结合巴菲特在早前的股东大会上的说法,他不希望预测时间,但他觉得重大的投资机会会在5年内出现;以及他说,没有人愿意持有正在奔向地狱的货币。我还在消化这里面的信息。之后再和大家细聊。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[9,93],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"945607507510038528","name":"Pathfinder","screen_name":"Pathusa","indices":[0,8]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Pathusa","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988242829651608061","view_count":1979,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1762869005000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1987933646767136949","full_text":"@Pathusa Circle有两个致命问题。盈利高度依赖国债收益率,跟coinbase签订了无法解约的卖身契。Circle除非找到新的增长点,才有大爆发的潜力。现在这个价位还不够安全。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"945607507510038528","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987933646767136949","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-13","value":0,"startTime":1762905600000,"endTime":1762992000000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-14","value":23,"startTime":1762992000000,"endTime":1763078400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,140],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988986827848798543","view_count":33,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763046388000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988986827848798543","full_text":"巴菲特曾经赞扬过中国对加密行业的管制。其实中国政府做得非常差,漏洞到处都是。我认为支付宝和微信出入金加密货币,应该立刻封号。这已经成为电信诈骗利用的漏洞。目前英美的汇丰银行、摩根大通才真正走在了风控的前列,基本上离岸账户(非开户行所在地居民的账号)在加密货币出入金就会被终身封户。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,143],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988993507542069645","view_count":26,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763047980000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988993507542069645","full_text":"中国应效法美国,向境外汇款超过1万美金,必须合规审查,没有备案的加密货币交易,或境外账户的买卖,终身封户(美国叫做debank)。境内用户也必须要在交易所报备个人社会信用信息才能交易。中国的国际汇款和加密货币出入金既没和个人征信绑定,违规也不封卡、封微信,政府不作为,电诈才有可乘之机!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1988893869212139873","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/J7x0x5DgHO","expanded":"https://twitter.com/ipaulcanada/status/1988893869212139873","display":"x.com/ipaulcanada/st…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989012531592196460","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763052516000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989012531592196460","full_text":"做空的前提是赚钱而不是赌气。21年卖房买美股,25年再低价买回来,然后超低利息贷给银行,套钱出来买黄金。生娃生三个,每胎拿补贴。黄金不变现,加上银行贷款是负债,千万富翁白嫖低保。银行要完成社融数据,心甘情愿被你薅羊毛。这才是在中国生活的最高境界。那些不生孩子,不买房的,都在给你打工。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1988893869212139873","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/J7x0x5DgHO","expanded":"https://twitter.com/ipaulcanada/status/1988893869212139873","display":"x.com/ipaulcanada/st…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989012279996871062","view_count":43,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763052456000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989012279996871062","full_text":"做空的前提是赚钱而不是赌气。21年卖房买美股,25年再低价买回来,然后超低利息贷给银行,套钱出来买黄金。生娃生三个,每胎拿补贴。黄金不变现,加上银行贷款是负债,千万富翁白嫖低保。银行要完成社融数据,心甘情愿被你薅羊毛。这才是在中国生活的最高境界。那些不生孩子,不买房,都是在给你打工。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,140],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989015555748294766","view_count":42911,"bookmark_count":60,"created_at":1763053237000,"favorite_count":238,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":16,"retweet_count":21,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989015555748294766","full_text":"大家记得,牛市让你赚小钱,熊市才让你发大财。牛市中大家都在赚钱,你只能保证不掉队,或者缓慢爬坡。熊市里大家都不赚钱,但你把握住了机会,就会一举跨越阶级。所以强者永远不抱怨这里经济不好,也不羡慕那里大环境更好。顶级投资者,包括股神巴菲特,往往在牛市里表现平平,但熊市一来,一飞冲天。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1820104162715246592","name":"malaimo","screen_name":"0rain4fall","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"0rain4fall","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989017760803008630","view_count":8303,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1763053762000,"favorite_count":18,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988930609809695067","full_text":"@0rain4fall 叶文洁是自己按的。首先叶文洁有那个本事,才有资格去按那个按钮。你若不是叶文洁,就忍着吧。即使你是,按了以后也要再等400年。人生像油条,要想成熟先煎熬。而且话说回来。有的人真可悲,绝望的时候宁可选择毁灭,也不去信靠能带来救赎的耶稣基督。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1820104162715246592","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1988930609809695067","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-15","value":3,"startTime":1763078400000,"endTime":1763164800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,14],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1985737463823011847","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/xiBsvWdxPC","expanded":"https://twitter.com/realtaoray/status/1985737463823011847","display":"x.com/realtaoray/sta…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989127805507105041","view_count":683,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763079999000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989127805507105041","full_text":"我这个空单的含金量还在上升!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,84],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989134466900808016","view_count":33951,"bookmark_count":19,"created_at":1763081587000,"favorite_count":57,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":13,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989134466900808016","full_text":"何同学进军英文油管。大有成为华人第一YouTuber的驾驶。短短几个视频,已经超越百万订阅,单个视频播放量也在百万上下。我觉得他的视频是挺有意思,比飓风影音好看太多了。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,47],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989183690363249058","view_count":128,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763093323000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989183690363249058","full_text":"大空头Michael Burry的例子告诉我们:所谓的人生发财靠康波,其实是,坑你一波又一波。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,61],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"realTaoRay","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989125269731655997","view_count":1677,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763079395000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989015555748294766","full_text":"我说的不是美股,美股还在牛市里,虽然要居安思危。我说的是中国。我看到网上很多绝望的声音,甚至有人说要叶文洁按电钮之类的话。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989015555748294766","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-16","value":0,"startTime":1763164800000,"endTime":1763251200000,"tweets":[]}],"nlikes":[{"label":"2025-10-17","value":0,"startTime":1760572800000,"endTime":1760659200000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-18","value":0,"startTime":1760659200000,"endTime":1760745600000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-19","value":367,"startTime":1760745600000,"endTime":1760832000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979568813151850933","view_count":264,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760800958000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979568813151850933","full_text":"我非常看好西方石油。在投资之前,我曾经亲自走访过它的公司和油田,研究其财报。深入调查后,我信心满满。最近的回调给了我继续加仓的大好良机。赚钱的机会往往出现在被市场错杀的时候。我简要分享我长期看好西方石油的逻辑,为何分析师错的离谱,以及我最新的资产配置。\n\n1. 最近西方股价下杀,有两大原因。一是国际油价下跌,第二是西方石油把其化工产业卖给了巴菲特的伯克希尔。很多分析师觉得西方石油把一块非常有利润的业务舍弃了,所以引起恐慌抛售。然而这是完全不理性的。第一,西方石油拿到了九十多亿的现金,能够让其财务更健康。具体财务分析我就不细说了,然而我想强调,巴菲特作为西方石油最大的股东,怎么可能花钱做不利于西方石油的收购呢?搬起石头砸自己的脚?让自己的股份贬值吗?这显然不可能。在巴菲特完成收购后,西方石油CEO Hollub在上个礼拜说西方石油之后将会财务更加稳健,业务更加集中,增加更加迅速,计划股价在五年内翻倍。这是得到了巴菲特背书的测算。在现在的投机环境下,这是相当可观的增长。\n\n2. 巴菲特讲过投资西方石油是他对未来AI时代的布局。AI一定会导致电力需求暴增,而西方石油的天然气业务一定会迎来爆炸式增长。这也是个AI时代卖铲子的好生意。现在美国的电力已经出现严重短缺,建立新的发电厂的投资络绎不绝,电力设备公司的股价已经屡创新高,相信这股势头很快就会传导到能源公司。巴菲特也明确说明收购西方石油的化工业务也是为了能让西方石油能够有更多资金,集中全部资源发展核心能源业务,把握住未来AI时代的大趋势。这绝对是非常明智的长远战略布局。这就像一个企业家有一个稳定收租的豪宅,当市场的大机会来临时,对于企业家来说,卖掉这个豪宅给一个有钱,且只想经营被动收入的老人,拿一大笔钱去做自己擅长的大生意才是最明智的。这对于企业家和老人是真正的双赢,而且老人本身也是企业家生意的第一大股东。如果市场分析师解读为企业家放弃了优良资产那是大错特错的。所以我觉得市场完全错误评估了这场收购。\n\n3. 最近美国股市波动加大,银行坏账问题浮出水面,市场避险情绪急剧升温。未来的宏观经济并不容乐观,所以对经济放缓的担忧打击了油价。然而经济放缓的底层原因是什么呢?是债务货币化。全球债务水平已经不可持续,美国的债务利息支出都已经超过了军费,而且还在上升。最后不可避免要通过超发货币来解决债务问题。美国通胀依旧保持在高位,但是经济和就业已经放缓,不得不进入降息周期,这让货币贬值的压力进一步增大。这也是黄金作为抗击货币贬值的终极利器为何迎来历史性大涨。石油虽然会受到经济周期的影响,在经济放缓中需求减弱,但是石油具作为能源必需品和大宗商品,具有强定价权,所以长期看石油公司总是能够在不确定性中穿越宏观周期的,是典型的防御性板块,尤其是能够抵抗货币面值。我相信这也是为什么巴菲特在不看好宏观经济的情况下,却一直大举加仓西方石油和雪佛龙。\n\n这是一脉相承的,债务危机不断累积,风险资产、股市和加密货币开始宽幅震荡,黄金价格暴涨。对宏观经济的担忧首先影响了经济活力和就业,导致经济放缓,短期打击了石油需求,油价下跌。然而真正的病根,债务危机,很快会浮出水面,债务货币化和货币贬值会接踵而来,这又会长期托起油价。\n\n所以我一直在为此布局,今年下半年以来我不断减少科技股的持仓,开始配置大量的黄金、美债、以及能源和保险股(主要是西方石油、雪弗龙和联合健康)。我大概流动资产的配置是15%的美国短期债券,15%的股票,20%的美国长期国债,50%的黄金。\n\n长债和石油是相反的,短期利好,长期却承压。长债之前被压抑了很久,随着降息周期和避险情绪的增加应该会有一波上涨行情。但是随着债务货币化,名义收益率会骤降,长期波动肯定会加大,所以我并不打算长期持有,会在降息周期中择机抛售,继续增持黄金,以及在低位配置能源股。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,141],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979574646266802656","view_count":50942,"bookmark_count":212,"created_at":1760802349000,"favorite_count":261,"quote_count":3,"reply_count":29,"retweet_count":48,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979574646266802656","full_text":"我非常看好西方石油。在投资之前,我曾亲自走访过它的油田,研究其财报。最近的回调给了我继续加仓的大好良机。赚钱的机会往往出现在被市场错杀的时候。未来是AI革命与宏观经济危机并存的年代,所以投资上有很多的挑战,看了这篇文章你就会理解为何投资西方石油是巴菲特应对危机和技术革命的神来之笔。\n\n1. 最近西方股价下杀,有两大原因。一是国际油价下跌,第二是西方石油把其化工产业卖给了巴菲特的伯克希尔。很多人觉得西方石油把一块非常有利润的业务舍弃了,所以引起恐慌抛售。然而这是完全不理性的。第一,西方石油拿到了九十多亿的现金,能够让其财务更健康。具体财务分析我就不细说了,然而我想强调,巴菲特作为西方石油最大的股东,怎么可能花钱做不利于西方石油的收购呢?搬起石头砸自己的脚?让自己的股份贬值吗?这显然不可能。在巴菲特完成收购后,西方石油CEO Hollub在上个礼拜说西方石油之后将会财务更加稳健,业务更加集中,增加更加迅速,计划股价在五年内翻倍。这是得到了巴菲特背书的测算。在现在的投机环境下,这是相当可观的增长。\n\n2. 巴菲特讲过投资西方石油是他对未来AI时代的布局。AI一定会导致电力需求暴增,而西方石油的天然气业务一定会迎来爆炸式增长。这也是个AI时代卖铲子的好生意。现在美国的电力已经出现严重短缺,建立新的发电厂的投资络绎不绝,电力设备公司的股价已经屡创新高,相信这股势头很快就会传导到能源公司。巴菲特也明确说明收购西方石油的化工业务也是为了能让西方石油能够有更多资金,集中全部资源发展核心能源业务,把握住这个未来的大趋势。这绝对是非常明智的长远战略布局。这就像一个企业家有一个稳定收租的豪宅,当市场机会来临时,对于企业家来说,卖掉这个豪宅给一个有钱,且只想经营被动收入的老人,拿一大笔钱去做自己擅长的大生意才是最明智的。这对于企业家和老人是真正的双赢,而且老人本身也是企业家生意的第一大股东。如果市场解读为企业家放弃了优良资产那是大错特错的。所以我觉得市场完全错误估计了这场收购。\n\n3. 最近美国股市波动加大,银行坏账问题浮出水面,市场避险情绪急剧升温。未来的宏观经济并不容乐观,所以对经济放缓的担忧打击了油价。然而经济放缓的底层原因是什么呢?是债务货币化。全球债务水平已经不可持续,美国的债务利息支出都已经超过了军费,而且还在上升。最后不可避免要通过超发货币来解决债务问题。美国通胀依旧保持在高位,但是经济和就业已经放缓,不得不进入降息周期,这让货币贬值的压力进一步增大。这也是黄金作为抗击货币贬值的终极利器为何迎来历史性大涨。石油虽然会受到经济周期的影响,在经济放缓中需求减弱,但是石油具作为能源必需品和大宗商品,具有强定价权,所以长期看石油公司总是能够在不确定性中穿越宏观周期的,是典型的防御性板块,尤其是能够抵抗货币面值。我相信这也是为什么巴菲特在不看好宏观经济的情况下,却一直大举加仓西方石油和雪佛龙。\n\n这是一脉相承的,债务危机不断累积,风险资产、股市和加密货币开始宽幅震荡,黄金价格暴涨。对宏观经济的担忧导致经济放缓,短期打击了石油需求,导致油价下跌。然而真正的债务危机很快会浮出水面,债务货币化和货币贬值又会长期托起油价。\n\n所以我一直在为此布局,今年下半年以来我不断减少科技股的持仓,开始配置大量的黄金、美债、以及能源和保险股(主要是西方石油、雪弗龙和联合健康)。我大概流动资产的配置是15%的美国短期债券,15%的股票,20%的美国长期国债,50%的黄金。\n\n长债和石油是相反的,短期利好,长期承压。长债之前被压抑了很久,随着降息周期和避险情绪的增加应该会有一波上涨行情。但是随着债务货币化,名义收益率会骤降,长期波动肯定会加大,所以我并不打算长期持有,会在降息周期中择机抛售,继续增持黄金,以及在低位配置能源股。\n\n最后我还想再说说巴菲特。很多人说巴菲特投资西方石油亏损了,因为他买了以后股价下跌了很多。其实巴菲特并没有亏,因为他除了购买了大量的普通股(这部分确实亏损了),但是他同时也购买了很多优先股。这部分的股价是不变的,而且每年还会给巴菲特8%的股息分红。这样一中和,巴菲特一点都不亏。这也非常符合巴菲特的投资性格,不渴求买到股价的最底部,只要有足够的安全边际就会毫不犹豫的下场。巴菲特可以说是对西方石油的信心与日俱增,不然也不会又花90多亿让其可以扩大能源项目的布局。然而我们买不到优先股,所以如果在巴菲特买股票的时候,也马上跟着买,持仓成本会比巴菲特高很多。所以我之前一直不买西方石油,只有在股价回调时大举进入。很多人说抄巴菲特作业亏本了,其实是不会抄罢了。抄作业也有技巧。我们必须把巴菲特的持仓成本做好换算后再抄作业。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979586375763771425","view_count":19045,"bookmark_count":40,"created_at":1760805145000,"favorite_count":82,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":12,"retweet_count":11,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979586375763771425","full_text":"今晚讲黄金和加密货币!过些日子讲债券配置:短债和货币基金有什么区别?TLT和直债如何选择?以及4大银行如何选择?(摩根大通、美国银行、摩根士丹利、汇丰)普通业务怎么选?外汇业务怎么选?投资业务怎么选?私人银行业务怎么选?中国、香港、新加坡、美国、瑞士怎么选?怎样全球资产配置可以如虎添翼?","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[33,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1674011365340778496","name":"G L","screen_name":"GL7525638026680","indices":[0,16]},{"id_str":"1161248776880832512","name":"David_Z","screen_name":"DavidZ11966088","indices":[17,32]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"GL7525638026680","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979577309876326683","view_count":6694,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1760802984000,"favorite_count":21,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1958544604820889790","full_text":"@GL7525638026680 @DavidZ11966088 短期震荡不可预测,长期必将一飞冲天。当年比特币的增长是什么水平,黄金就会怎么涨。比特币只号称是数字黄金,当债务货币化真正到来的时候,真正的黄金会一路高歌猛进。全球债务已经达到了史无前例的水平,黄金也会有史无前例的增长。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1674011365340778496","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1979572292418994602","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[16,38],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1161248776880832512","name":"David_Z","screen_name":"DavidZ11966088","indices":[0,15]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"DavidZ11966088","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979568994773553522","view_count":6088,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760801001000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1958544604820889790","full_text":"@DavidZ11966088 我刚刚为此写了一篇文章,你可以在我主页上看。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1161248776880832512","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1979319933113930001","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-20","value":2,"startTime":1760832000000,"endTime":1760918400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,116],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979845314447389073","view_count":67,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760866881000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979845314447389073","full_text":"杨振宁的科学成就是毋庸置疑的。至于他的人品和为人,我不认识他,所以完全无感,无所谓好坏。但是我感觉网上骂他的人,一大部分是因为羡慕嫉妒恨。他们要是有能力和统战价值,未必不去捞名捞利,未必不想找个年轻老婆,可惜他们没有这个能力和价值。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,77],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"2561532174","name":"Zhaonuo","screen_name":"gaoxiaoccp","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"gaoxiaoccp","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979765095661236226","view_count":1,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760847755000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979574646266802656","full_text":"@gaoxiaoccp 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中国文化中没有privacy和secrecy的区别。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1457238121679302657","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980118861254164694","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-22","value":14,"startTime":1761004800000,"endTime":1761091200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,141],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1980431376957513846","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/XAk9M456ZA","expanded":"https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1980431376957513846","display":"x.com/zerohedge/stat…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980471352504246759","view_count":3968,"bookmark_count":4,"created_at":1761016140000,"favorite_count":14,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980471352504246759","full_text":"1/3的美国人信用卡债务已经超过存款。这不仅仅是美国的问题,全世界都是如此。中国的隐性债更是大到难以估计。个人负债、国家负债、资不抵债成为全球经济的主旋律,美国作为火车头也深陷泥潭。自从有人类以来,全球债务水平没有这么高过。债务货币化不可避免,货币贬值板上钉钉,中长期黄金想跌都难。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-23","value":218,"startTime":1761091200000,"endTime":1761177600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,143],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980804450601357737","view_count":862,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761095557000,"favorite_count":7,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980804450601357737","full_text":"黄金暴跌?!简直就是笑话!相比黄金一直的大涨,这只能算是一个小小的波动。就算昨天跌完,单单最近一个月还是暴涨了10%。算上今年年初到现在,黄金涨过了我手上所有的股票,英伟达、标普、科技ETF、能源股。回调是加仓的好机会。牛市里千金难买牛回头,熊市里到处都是死猫条。黄金上涨的逻辑没改变。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,143],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980870679852650765","view_count":33429,"bookmark_count":30,"created_at":1761111347000,"favorite_count":199,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":23,"retweet_count":12,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980870679852650765","full_text":"黄金暴跌?!简直就是笑话!相比黄金一直的大涨,这只能算是一个小小的波动。就算昨天跌完,单单最近一个月还是暴涨了10%。算上今年年初到现在,黄金涨过了我手上所有的股票,英伟达、标普、科技ETF、能源股。回调是加仓的好机会。牛市里千金难买牛回头,熊市里到处都是死猫条。黄金上涨的逻辑没改变。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,63],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1366565625401909249","name":"Wall 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把白宫里面装修成金色是不够的,应该把外墙都贴上24k金,从此改名叫金宫。这才是留名青史的大功绩。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1366565625401909249","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981011584832204920","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-24","value":1404,"startTime":1761177600000,"endTime":1761264000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981386135763898725","view_count":2,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761234241000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1981386135763898725","full_text":"我前些天和德勤的一个中国区合伙人聊天,终于搞清楚了CRS的原理,也终于明白为什么美国明明不在CRS系统里面,但有些人用美国券商(如IBKR)还是会被追税。我今天就来讲一讲。顺便也说一下地下钱庄换汇和税务的风险,以及中国税务居民用美国银行卡+美资券商的相关问题。\n\nCRS是看不到你的交易明细的,只会看到你在CRS辖区内账户在几个时间点的资金额。当你的资金体量比较大的时候,你就可能被盯上。目前是各地税局分别负责,全国没有统一标准,但是金额门槛正在下沉。去年还只是查千万美金级别的户主,今年甚至有几十万美金的户主也中招。\n\n假如你有一张港卡,被CRS交换了,金额又达到了某个标准,那么税局就有可能会盯上你。这时候税局不是直接按照他们掌握的信息来收税,而是会要求你主动申报,要你把海外所有账户的银行流水、券商交易记录交出来,一般是看近3年的(有的甚至会要求看6年,但是你可以找会计和他们argue,有专业人士介入会好很多)。虽然税局本身看不到你的交易明细和流水,更看不到你美资券商的买卖记录,但问题是你敢不敢隐瞒呢?你要不要冒着犯罪的风险去造假流水呢?很多人不敢。这也是为什么很多人用美资券商还是会被收税。\n\n如果你是美国银行账户+美国券商,原则上不可能被CRS侦测到,中国税局也不会知道你在外国有账户,更不会找你索要信息。但在实操过程中,这样也存在很多问题。比如,中国人如何把大额资金弄到美国?大部分人的大额资金出境都要通过香港账户,因为香港是全世界对出入金监管最宽松的地方之一。\n\n美国对洗钱防范得特别严格。联邦法律规定一万美金以上的流动就要自动进入系统以备检查。所以出入金特别困难。如果外国人的账户长期有不同的外国人汇钱进来,很可能就会被封户。人在美国的外国人的账户会好很多,系统会备注你的信息,所以留学生收到国内很多汇款也一般不会出现问题。\n\n但是只要你人在美国半年以上,这就包括了所有留学生和在美工作的中国人,你的投资收益是要按照美国人的标准去交美国税的,这个税比中国的税还重。而且逃税的惩罚非常非常严重,美国税局IRS比中国要严厉很多。\n\n那能不能把钱汇给正在美国留学的孩子,然后再转去中国父母的美资券商账户呢?这样既不会被美国银行风控封户,也逃过了被CRS和中国税局的追踪,也不用交美国的税。答案是很难操作。因为法律规定,外国人在美国开的券商账户只接受同名账户的转账。当然你还是可以让子女再把钱一次性打到你的美国银行账户,再转入券商。因为是在美国国内亲属一次性打款的,不是很多个5万美金的境外汇款,这就不会引起风控。但是我必须说,我不是在鼓励大家逃税!\n\n但是这种方法不适合资金体量比较大的人操作,因为很难通过多个5万美金的蚂蚁搬家把钱汇出去。大部分人还是会选择地下钱庄来换钱,这又叫“对敲”。也就是你在中国往钱庄的中国境内账户打一笔钱,同时钱庄往你的境外账户打一笔等值的美金。都必须是即时到账,降低风险。大家都看到到账后,再马上打下一笔。这样敲几次,就把钱换走了。对敲被认为是最保险的,因为如果不是即时到账,谁都担心被骗。再说一遍,我不是在鼓励大家非法换汇。\n\n对敲一般只能用港卡,因为香港和中国一样,可以大额资金境内转账即时到账,而且不容易触发风控;而在美国就非常困难。一是美国即使是国内大额转账也不是即时到账,二是你的美国账户短时间收到好几笔大额款项,八成账户就会被封。\n\n但是港卡一旦有大额款项,通过CRS,中国税局就会知道你在海外有资金了。所以这就是为什么大部分有钱人走资以后,都会被CRS查到并要求补税。就是因为他们不得不用港卡走资。即使不用港卡,所有能满足对敲需求的地区都在CRS网络里面。\n\n今天我讲的是普通有钱人遇到的问题,明天我来讲一讲中国税局是如何对付企业家的。顶豪们早就在税局重点关注的名单上了,但同时也早就请律师和会计做好了各种架构,身份也移民了,早已不是中国税务居民,钱也不是通过地下钱庄,而是通过外资股东分红和一层层壳公司,用各种复杂的商业操作换走的,非常难被穿透。但是现在中国税局也进化出了一套方法,让这些人的海外收入缴税。明天再讲其中的门道。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981387300069134635","view_count":179390,"bookmark_count":1407,"created_at":1761234519000,"favorite_count":1113,"quote_count":5,"reply_count":40,"retweet_count":258,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1981387300069134635","full_text":"我最近找德勤做了点业务,终于搞清楚了CRS的原理,也终于明白了为什么美国明明不在CRS里面,但有些人用美国券商(如IBKR)还是会被追税。顺便也说一下地下钱庄换汇和税务的风险,以及中国人用美国银行卡+美资券商的相关问题。这绝对是全网相关议题最详细和深入的讨论!\n\nCRS是看不到你的交易明细的,只会看到你在CRS辖区内账户在几个时间点的资金额。当你的资金体量比较大的时候,你就可能被盯上。目前是各地税局分别负责,全国没有统一标准,但是金额门槛正在下沉。去年还只是查千万美金级别的户主,今年甚至有几十万美金的户主也中招。\n\n假如你有一张港卡,被CRS交换了,金额又达到了某个标准,那么税局就有可能会盯上你。这时候税局不是直接按照他们掌握的信息来收税,而是会要求你主动申报,要你把海外所有账户的银行流水、券商交易记录交出来,一般是看近3年的(有的甚至会要求看6年,但是你可以找会计和他们argue,有专业人士介入会好很多)。虽然税局本身看不到你的交易明细和流水,更看不到你美资券商的买卖记录,但问题是你敢不敢隐瞒呢?你要不要冒着犯罪的风险去造假流水呢?很多人不敢。这也是为什么很多人用美资券商还是会被收税。\n\n如果你是美国银行账户+美国券商,原则上不可能被CRS侦测到,中国税局也不会知道你在外国有账户,更不会找你索要信息。但在实操过程中,这样也存在很多问题。比如,中国人如何把大额资金弄到美国?大部分人的大额资金出境都要通过香港账户,因为香港是全世界对出入金监管最宽松的地方之一。\n\n美国对洗钱防范得特别严格。联邦法律规定一万美金以上的流动就要自动进入系统以备检查。所以出入金特别困难。如果外国人的账户长期有不同的外国人汇钱进来,很可能就会被封户。人在美国的外国人的账户会好很多,系统会备注你的信息,所以留学生收到国内很多汇款也一般不会出现问题。\n\n但是只要你人在美国半年以上,这就包括了所有留学生和在美工作的中国人,你的投资收益是要按照美国人的标准去交美国税的,这个税比中国的税还重。而且逃税的惩罚非常非常严重,美国税局IRS比中国要严厉很多。\n\n那能不能把钱汇给正在美国留学的孩子,然后再转去中国父母的美资券商账户呢?这样既不会被美国银行风控封户,也逃过了被CRS和中国税局的追踪,也不用交美国的税。答案是很难操作。因为法律规定,外国人在美国开的券商账户只接受同名账户的转账。当然你还是可以让子女再把钱一次性打到你的美国银行账户,再转入券商。因为是在美国国内亲属一次性打款的,不是很多个5万美金的境外汇款,这就不会引起风控。但是我必须说,我不是在鼓励大家逃税!\n\n但是这种方法不适合资金体量比较大的人操作,因为很难通过多个5万美金的蚂蚁搬家把钱汇出去。大部分人还是会选择地下钱庄来换钱,这又叫“对敲”。也就是你在中国往钱庄的中国境内账户打一笔钱,同时钱庄往你的境外账户打一笔等值的美金。都必须是即时到账,降低风险。大家都看到到账后,再马上打下一笔。这样敲几次,就把钱换走了。对敲被认为是最保险的,因为如果不是即时到账,谁都担心被骗。再说一遍,我不是在鼓励大家非法换汇。\n\n对敲一般只能用港卡,因为香港和中国一样,可以大额资金境内转账即时到账,而且不容易触发风控;而在美国就非常困难。一是美国即使是国内大额转账也不是即时到账,二是你的美国账户短时间收到好几笔大额款项,八成账户就会被封。\n\n但是港卡一旦有大额款项,通过CRS,中国税局就会知道你在海外有资金了。所以这就是为什么大部分有钱人走资以后,都会被CRS查到并要求补税。就是因为他们不得不用港卡走资。即使不用港卡,所有能满足对敲需求的地区都在CRS网络里面。\n\n今天我讲的是普通有钱人遇到的问题,明天我来讲一讲中国税局是如何对付企业家的。顶豪们早就在税局重点关注的名单上了,但同时也早就请律师和会计做好了各种架构,身份也移民了,早已不是中国税务居民,钱也不是通过地下钱庄,而是通过外资股东分红和一层层壳公司,用各种复杂的商业操作换走的,非常难被穿透。但是现在中国税局也进化出了一套方法,让这些人的海外收入缴税。明天再讲其中的门道。为什么你移民到了国外,依然可能会被中国税局追税?他们又是如何做到的。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,19],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps"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Don’t despair; America will come back and so will Berkshire shares.\n\n注意,这里用的是未来时,也就是巴菲特预计未来股价会大幅波动,而且会下跌50%。\n\n结合巴菲特在早前的股东大会说,他不希望预测时间,但他觉得重大的投资机会会在5年内出现;以及他说,没有人愿意持有正在奔向地狱的货币。我还在消化这里面的信息。之后再和大家细聊。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,105],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988253398010036397","view_count":46697,"bookmark_count":111,"created_at":1762871524000,"favorite_count":210,"quote_count":6,"reply_count":20,"retweet_count":29,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988253398010036397","full_text":"巴菲特给股东写了一封长信,并宣称之后会安静下来,和股东沟通的任务交给新CEO。他几乎没有评价现在的市场。但却单独起了一段只讲了一句话:我们的股价将会大幅波动,偶尔会下跌大约 50%,在现任管理层执掌公司的 60 年里,这种情况已经发生过三次。不要灰心,美国会再度振作,伯克希尔的股价也会随之回升。\n\n巴菲特的这封长信主要是在回顾人生,初看非常励志、非常暖心。但当我看到那句话时,我惊出一身冷汗。这仿佛是在大灾难之前给人们做好心理建设。\n\nOur stock price will move capriciously, occasionally falling 50% or so as has happened three times in 60 years under present management. Don’t despair; America will come back and so will Berkshire shares.\n\n注意,这里用的是未来时,也就是巴菲特预计未来股价会大幅波动,而且会下跌50%。\n\n巴菲特几十年来撰写的所有的股东信我都读过,他这些年的每一个年会和采访我都看过。巴菲特说话从来都很含蓄,从来不会完全说破。对于不熟悉他风格的人,乍听一下,他说的每一句话都没有什么深意。比如上面那句话,任何时候、任何公司的股价都可能大幅波动甚至腰斩,尤其是在一个很长的时间线上。但是当你听他说话多了以后,就会发现他有个习惯,每说一句话都要停下来想一想,每一句话都不是随口乱说的。他非常讲究在什么时间说什么话。比如在早前的几次股灾中,他会说要注意估值风险。这句话看似也是没有什么意义。投资什么时候不应该关心估值风险呢?但巴菲特只会在他觉得市场泡沫的时候这样说。在他要大举出手买货的时候,他会说宁愿花不便宜的价钱买好公司。\n\n巴菲特之所以是股神,并不是他能押中最赚钱的股票,而是他践行了他的名言:只有当潮水退去时,才知道谁在裸泳。\n\n结合巴菲特在早前的股东大会上的说法,他不希望预测时间,但他觉得重大的投资机会会在5年内出现;以及他说,没有人愿意持有正在奔向地狱的货币。我还在消化这里面的信息。之后再和大家细聊。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[9,93],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"945607507510038528","name":"Pathfinder","screen_name":"Pathusa","indices":[0,8]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Pathusa","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988242829651608061","view_count":1979,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1762869005000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1987933646767136949","full_text":"@Pathusa Circle有两个致命问题。盈利高度依赖国债收益率,跟coinbase签订了无法解约的卖身契。Circle除非找到新的增长点,才有大爆发的潜力。现在这个价位还不够安全。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"945607507510038528","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987933646767136949","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-13","value":0,"startTime":1762905600000,"endTime":1762992000000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-14","value":257,"startTime":1762992000000,"endTime":1763078400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,140],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988986827848798543","view_count":33,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763046388000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988986827848798543","full_text":"巴菲特曾经赞扬过中国对加密行业的管制。其实中国政府做得非常差,漏洞到处都是。我认为支付宝和微信出入金加密货币,应该立刻封号。这已经成为电信诈骗利用的漏洞。目前英美的汇丰银行、摩根大通才真正走在了风控的前列,基本上离岸账户(非开户行所在地居民的账号)在加密货币出入金就会被终身封户。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,143],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988993507542069645","view_count":26,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763047980000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988993507542069645","full_text":"中国应效法美国,向境外汇款超过1万美金,必须合规审查,没有备案的加密货币交易,或境外账户的买卖,终身封户(美国叫做debank)。境内用户也必须要在交易所报备个人社会信用信息才能交易。中国的国际汇款和加密货币出入金既没和个人征信绑定,违规也不封卡、封微信,政府不作为,电诈才有可乘之机!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1988893869212139873","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/J7x0x5DgHO","expanded":"https://twitter.com/ipaulcanada/status/1988893869212139873","display":"x.com/ipaulcanada/st…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989012531592196460","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763052516000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989012531592196460","full_text":"做空的前提是赚钱而不是赌气。21年卖房买美股,25年再低价买回来,然后超低利息贷给银行,套钱出来买黄金。生娃生三个,每胎拿补贴。黄金不变现,加上银行贷款是负债,千万富翁白嫖低保。银行要完成社融数据,心甘情愿被你薅羊毛。这才是在中国生活的最高境界。那些不生孩子,不买房的,都在给你打工。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1988893869212139873","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/J7x0x5DgHO","expanded":"https://twitter.com/ipaulcanada/status/1988893869212139873","display":"x.com/ipaulcanada/st…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989012279996871062","view_count":43,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763052456000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989012279996871062","full_text":"做空的前提是赚钱而不是赌气。21年卖房买美股,25年再低价买回来,然后超低利息贷给银行,套钱出来买黄金。生娃生三个,每胎拿补贴。黄金不变现,加上银行贷款是负债,千万富翁白嫖低保。银行要完成社融数据,心甘情愿被你薅羊毛。这才是在中国生活的最高境界。那些不生孩子,不买房,都是在给你打工。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,140],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989015555748294766","view_count":42911,"bookmark_count":60,"created_at":1763053237000,"favorite_count":238,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":16,"retweet_count":21,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989015555748294766","full_text":"大家记得,牛市让你赚小钱,熊市才让你发大财。牛市中大家都在赚钱,你只能保证不掉队,或者缓慢爬坡。熊市里大家都不赚钱,但你把握住了机会,就会一举跨越阶级。所以强者永远不抱怨这里经济不好,也不羡慕那里大环境更好。顶级投资者,包括股神巴菲特,往往在牛市里表现平平,但熊市一来,一飞冲天。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1820104162715246592","name":"malaimo","screen_name":"0rain4fall","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"0rain4fall","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989017760803008630","view_count":8303,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1763053762000,"favorite_count":18,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988930609809695067","full_text":"@0rain4fall 叶文洁是自己按的。首先叶文洁有那个本事,才有资格去按那个按钮。你若不是叶文洁,就忍着吧。即使你是,按了以后也要再等400年。人生像油条,要想成熟先煎熬。而且话说回来。有的人真可悲,绝望的时候宁可选择毁灭,也不去信靠能带来救赎的耶稣基督。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1820104162715246592","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1988930609809695067","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-15","value":59,"startTime":1763078400000,"endTime":1763164800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,14],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1985737463823011847","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/xiBsvWdxPC","expanded":"https://twitter.com/realtaoray/status/1985737463823011847","display":"x.com/realtaoray/sta…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989127805507105041","view_count":683,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763079999000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989127805507105041","full_text":"我这个空单的含金量还在上升!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,84],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989134466900808016","view_count":33951,"bookmark_count":19,"created_at":1763081587000,"favorite_count":57,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":13,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989134466900808016","full_text":"何同学进军英文油管。大有成为华人第一YouTuber的驾驶。短短几个视频,已经超越百万订阅,单个视频播放量也在百万上下。我觉得他的视频是挺有意思,比飓风影音好看太多了。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,47],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989183690363249058","view_count":128,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763093323000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989183690363249058","full_text":"大空头Michael Burry的例子告诉我们:所谓的人生发财靠康波,其实是,坑你一波又一波。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,61],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"realTaoRay","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989125269731655997","view_count":1677,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763079395000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989015555748294766","full_text":"我说的不是美股,美股还在牛市里,虽然要居安思危。我说的是中国。我看到网上很多绝望的声音,甚至有人说要叶文洁按电钮之类的话。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989015555748294766","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-16","value":0,"startTime":1763164800000,"endTime":1763251200000,"tweets":[]}],"nviews":[{"label":"2025-10-17","value":0,"startTime":1760572800000,"endTime":1760659200000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-18","value":0,"startTime":1760659200000,"endTime":1760745600000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-19","value":83033,"startTime":1760745600000,"endTime":1760832000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979568813151850933","view_count":264,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760800958000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979568813151850933","full_text":"我非常看好西方石油。在投资之前,我曾经亲自走访过它的公司和油田,研究其财报。深入调查后,我信心满满。最近的回调给了我继续加仓的大好良机。赚钱的机会往往出现在被市场错杀的时候。我简要分享我长期看好西方石油的逻辑,为何分析师错的离谱,以及我最新的资产配置。\n\n1. 最近西方股价下杀,有两大原因。一是国际油价下跌,第二是西方石油把其化工产业卖给了巴菲特的伯克希尔。很多分析师觉得西方石油把一块非常有利润的业务舍弃了,所以引起恐慌抛售。然而这是完全不理性的。第一,西方石油拿到了九十多亿的现金,能够让其财务更健康。具体财务分析我就不细说了,然而我想强调,巴菲特作为西方石油最大的股东,怎么可能花钱做不利于西方石油的收购呢?搬起石头砸自己的脚?让自己的股份贬值吗?这显然不可能。在巴菲特完成收购后,西方石油CEO Hollub在上个礼拜说西方石油之后将会财务更加稳健,业务更加集中,增加更加迅速,计划股价在五年内翻倍。这是得到了巴菲特背书的测算。在现在的投机环境下,这是相当可观的增长。\n\n2. 巴菲特讲过投资西方石油是他对未来AI时代的布局。AI一定会导致电力需求暴增,而西方石油的天然气业务一定会迎来爆炸式增长。这也是个AI时代卖铲子的好生意。现在美国的电力已经出现严重短缺,建立新的发电厂的投资络绎不绝,电力设备公司的股价已经屡创新高,相信这股势头很快就会传导到能源公司。巴菲特也明确说明收购西方石油的化工业务也是为了能让西方石油能够有更多资金,集中全部资源发展核心能源业务,把握住未来AI时代的大趋势。这绝对是非常明智的长远战略布局。这就像一个企业家有一个稳定收租的豪宅,当市场的大机会来临时,对于企业家来说,卖掉这个豪宅给一个有钱,且只想经营被动收入的老人,拿一大笔钱去做自己擅长的大生意才是最明智的。这对于企业家和老人是真正的双赢,而且老人本身也是企业家生意的第一大股东。如果市场分析师解读为企业家放弃了优良资产那是大错特错的。所以我觉得市场完全错误评估了这场收购。\n\n3. 最近美国股市波动加大,银行坏账问题浮出水面,市场避险情绪急剧升温。未来的宏观经济并不容乐观,所以对经济放缓的担忧打击了油价。然而经济放缓的底层原因是什么呢?是债务货币化。全球债务水平已经不可持续,美国的债务利息支出都已经超过了军费,而且还在上升。最后不可避免要通过超发货币来解决债务问题。美国通胀依旧保持在高位,但是经济和就业已经放缓,不得不进入降息周期,这让货币贬值的压力进一步增大。这也是黄金作为抗击货币贬值的终极利器为何迎来历史性大涨。石油虽然会受到经济周期的影响,在经济放缓中需求减弱,但是石油具作为能源必需品和大宗商品,具有强定价权,所以长期看石油公司总是能够在不确定性中穿越宏观周期的,是典型的防御性板块,尤其是能够抵抗货币面值。我相信这也是为什么巴菲特在不看好宏观经济的情况下,却一直大举加仓西方石油和雪佛龙。\n\n这是一脉相承的,债务危机不断累积,风险资产、股市和加密货币开始宽幅震荡,黄金价格暴涨。对宏观经济的担忧首先影响了经济活力和就业,导致经济放缓,短期打击了石油需求,油价下跌。然而真正的病根,债务危机,很快会浮出水面,债务货币化和货币贬值会接踵而来,这又会长期托起油价。\n\n所以我一直在为此布局,今年下半年以来我不断减少科技股的持仓,开始配置大量的黄金、美债、以及能源和保险股(主要是西方石油、雪弗龙和联合健康)。我大概流动资产的配置是15%的美国短期债券,15%的股票,20%的美国长期国债,50%的黄金。\n\n长债和石油是相反的,短期利好,长期却承压。长债之前被压抑了很久,随着降息周期和避险情绪的增加应该会有一波上涨行情。但是随着债务货币化,名义收益率会骤降,长期波动肯定会加大,所以我并不打算长期持有,会在降息周期中择机抛售,继续增持黄金,以及在低位配置能源股。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,141],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979574646266802656","view_count":50942,"bookmark_count":212,"created_at":1760802349000,"favorite_count":261,"quote_count":3,"reply_count":29,"retweet_count":48,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979574646266802656","full_text":"我非常看好西方石油。在投资之前,我曾亲自走访过它的油田,研究其财报。最近的回调给了我继续加仓的大好良机。赚钱的机会往往出现在被市场错杀的时候。未来是AI革命与宏观经济危机并存的年代,所以投资上有很多的挑战,看了这篇文章你就会理解为何投资西方石油是巴菲特应对危机和技术革命的神来之笔。\n\n1. 最近西方股价下杀,有两大原因。一是国际油价下跌,第二是西方石油把其化工产业卖给了巴菲特的伯克希尔。很多人觉得西方石油把一块非常有利润的业务舍弃了,所以引起恐慌抛售。然而这是完全不理性的。第一,西方石油拿到了九十多亿的现金,能够让其财务更健康。具体财务分析我就不细说了,然而我想强调,巴菲特作为西方石油最大的股东,怎么可能花钱做不利于西方石油的收购呢?搬起石头砸自己的脚?让自己的股份贬值吗?这显然不可能。在巴菲特完成收购后,西方石油CEO Hollub在上个礼拜说西方石油之后将会财务更加稳健,业务更加集中,增加更加迅速,计划股价在五年内翻倍。这是得到了巴菲特背书的测算。在现在的投机环境下,这是相当可观的增长。\n\n2. 巴菲特讲过投资西方石油是他对未来AI时代的布局。AI一定会导致电力需求暴增,而西方石油的天然气业务一定会迎来爆炸式增长。这也是个AI时代卖铲子的好生意。现在美国的电力已经出现严重短缺,建立新的发电厂的投资络绎不绝,电力设备公司的股价已经屡创新高,相信这股势头很快就会传导到能源公司。巴菲特也明确说明收购西方石油的化工业务也是为了能让西方石油能够有更多资金,集中全部资源发展核心能源业务,把握住这个未来的大趋势。这绝对是非常明智的长远战略布局。这就像一个企业家有一个稳定收租的豪宅,当市场机会来临时,对于企业家来说,卖掉这个豪宅给一个有钱,且只想经营被动收入的老人,拿一大笔钱去做自己擅长的大生意才是最明智的。这对于企业家和老人是真正的双赢,而且老人本身也是企业家生意的第一大股东。如果市场解读为企业家放弃了优良资产那是大错特错的。所以我觉得市场完全错误估计了这场收购。\n\n3. 最近美国股市波动加大,银行坏账问题浮出水面,市场避险情绪急剧升温。未来的宏观经济并不容乐观,所以对经济放缓的担忧打击了油价。然而经济放缓的底层原因是什么呢?是债务货币化。全球债务水平已经不可持续,美国的债务利息支出都已经超过了军费,而且还在上升。最后不可避免要通过超发货币来解决债务问题。美国通胀依旧保持在高位,但是经济和就业已经放缓,不得不进入降息周期,这让货币贬值的压力进一步增大。这也是黄金作为抗击货币贬值的终极利器为何迎来历史性大涨。石油虽然会受到经济周期的影响,在经济放缓中需求减弱,但是石油具作为能源必需品和大宗商品,具有强定价权,所以长期看石油公司总是能够在不确定性中穿越宏观周期的,是典型的防御性板块,尤其是能够抵抗货币面值。我相信这也是为什么巴菲特在不看好宏观经济的情况下,却一直大举加仓西方石油和雪佛龙。\n\n这是一脉相承的,债务危机不断累积,风险资产、股市和加密货币开始宽幅震荡,黄金价格暴涨。对宏观经济的担忧导致经济放缓,短期打击了石油需求,导致油价下跌。然而真正的债务危机很快会浮出水面,债务货币化和货币贬值又会长期托起油价。\n\n所以我一直在为此布局,今年下半年以来我不断减少科技股的持仓,开始配置大量的黄金、美债、以及能源和保险股(主要是西方石油、雪弗龙和联合健康)。我大概流动资产的配置是15%的美国短期债券,15%的股票,20%的美国长期国债,50%的黄金。\n\n长债和石油是相反的,短期利好,长期承压。长债之前被压抑了很久,随着降息周期和避险情绪的增加应该会有一波上涨行情。但是随着债务货币化,名义收益率会骤降,长期波动肯定会加大,所以我并不打算长期持有,会在降息周期中择机抛售,继续增持黄金,以及在低位配置能源股。\n\n最后我还想再说说巴菲特。很多人说巴菲特投资西方石油亏损了,因为他买了以后股价下跌了很多。其实巴菲特并没有亏,因为他除了购买了大量的普通股(这部分确实亏损了),但是他同时也购买了很多优先股。这部分的股价是不变的,而且每年还会给巴菲特8%的股息分红。这样一中和,巴菲特一点都不亏。这也非常符合巴菲特的投资性格,不渴求买到股价的最底部,只要有足够的安全边际就会毫不犹豫的下场。巴菲特可以说是对西方石油的信心与日俱增,不然也不会又花90多亿让其可以扩大能源项目的布局。然而我们买不到优先股,所以如果在巴菲特买股票的时候,也马上跟着买,持仓成本会比巴菲特高很多。所以我之前一直不买西方石油,只有在股价回调时大举进入。很多人说抄巴菲特作业亏本了,其实是不会抄罢了。抄作业也有技巧。我们必须把巴菲特的持仓成本做好换算后再抄作业。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979586375763771425","view_count":19045,"bookmark_count":40,"created_at":1760805145000,"favorite_count":82,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":12,"retweet_count":11,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979586375763771425","full_text":"今晚讲黄金和加密货币!过些日子讲债券配置:短债和货币基金有什么区别?TLT和直债如何选择?以及4大银行如何选择?(摩根大通、美国银行、摩根士丹利、汇丰)普通业务怎么选?外汇业务怎么选?投资业务怎么选?私人银行业务怎么选?中国、香港、新加坡、美国、瑞士怎么选?怎样全球资产配置可以如虎添翼?","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[33,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1674011365340778496","name":"G L","screen_name":"GL7525638026680","indices":[0,16]},{"id_str":"1161248776880832512","name":"David_Z","screen_name":"DavidZ11966088","indices":[17,32]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"GL7525638026680","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979577309876326683","view_count":6694,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1760802984000,"favorite_count":21,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1958544604820889790","full_text":"@GL7525638026680 @DavidZ11966088 短期震荡不可预测,长期必将一飞冲天。当年比特币的增长是什么水平,黄金就会怎么涨。比特币只号称是数字黄金,当债务货币化真正到来的时候,真正的黄金会一路高歌猛进。全球债务已经达到了史无前例的水平,黄金也会有史无前例的增长。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1674011365340778496","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1979572292418994602","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[16,38],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1161248776880832512","name":"David_Z","screen_name":"DavidZ11966088","indices":[0,15]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"DavidZ11966088","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979568994773553522","view_count":6088,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760801001000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1958544604820889790","full_text":"@DavidZ11966088 我刚刚为此写了一篇文章,你可以在我主页上看。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1161248776880832512","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1979319933113930001","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-20","value":908,"startTime":1760832000000,"endTime":1760918400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,116],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979845314447389073","view_count":67,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760866881000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979845314447389073","full_text":"杨振宁的科学成就是毋庸置疑的。至于他的人品和为人,我不认识他,所以完全无感,无所谓好坏。但是我感觉网上骂他的人,一大部分是因为羡慕嫉妒恨。他们要是有能力和统战价值,未必不去捞名捞利,未必不想找个年轻老婆,可惜他们没有这个能力和价值。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,77],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"2561532174","name":"Zhaonuo","screen_name":"gaoxiaoccp","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"gaoxiaoccp","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979765095661236226","view_count":1,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760847755000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979574646266802656","full_text":"@gaoxiaoccp 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中国文化中没有privacy和secrecy的区别。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1457238121679302657","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980118861254164694","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-22","value":3968,"startTime":1761004800000,"endTime":1761091200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,141],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1980431376957513846","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/XAk9M456ZA","expanded":"https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1980431376957513846","display":"x.com/zerohedge/stat…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980471352504246759","view_count":3968,"bookmark_count":4,"created_at":1761016140000,"favorite_count":14,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980471352504246759","full_text":"1/3的美国人信用卡债务已经超过存款。这不仅仅是美国的问题,全世界都是如此。中国的隐性债更是大到难以估计。个人负债、国家负债、资不抵债成为全球经济的主旋律,美国作为火车头也深陷泥潭。自从有人类以来,全球债务水平没有这么高过。债务货币化不可避免,货币贬值板上钉钉,中长期黄金想跌都难。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-23","value":37481,"startTime":1761091200000,"endTime":1761177600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,143],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980804450601357737","view_count":862,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761095557000,"favorite_count":7,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980804450601357737","full_text":"黄金暴跌?!简直就是笑话!相比黄金一直的大涨,这只能算是一个小小的波动。就算昨天跌完,单单最近一个月还是暴涨了10%。算上今年年初到现在,黄金涨过了我手上所有的股票,英伟达、标普、科技ETF、能源股。回调是加仓的好机会。牛市里千金难买牛回头,熊市里到处都是死猫条。黄金上涨的逻辑没改变。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,143],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980870679852650765","view_count":33429,"bookmark_count":30,"created_at":1761111347000,"favorite_count":199,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":23,"retweet_count":12,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980870679852650765","full_text":"黄金暴跌?!简直就是笑话!相比黄金一直的大涨,这只能算是一个小小的波动。就算昨天跌完,单单最近一个月还是暴涨了10%。算上今年年初到现在,黄金涨过了我手上所有的股票,英伟达、标普、科技ETF、能源股。回调是加仓的好机会。牛市里千金难买牛回头,熊市里到处都是死猫条。黄金上涨的逻辑没改变。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,63],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1366565625401909249","name":"Wall 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把白宫里面装修成金色是不够的,应该把外墙都贴上24k金,从此改名叫金宫。这才是留名青史的大功绩。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1366565625401909249","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981011584832204920","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-24","value":256257,"startTime":1761177600000,"endTime":1761264000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981386135763898725","view_count":2,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761234241000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1981386135763898725","full_text":"我前些天和德勤的一个中国区合伙人聊天,终于搞清楚了CRS的原理,也终于明白为什么美国明明不在CRS系统里面,但有些人用美国券商(如IBKR)还是会被追税。我今天就来讲一讲。顺便也说一下地下钱庄换汇和税务的风险,以及中国税务居民用美国银行卡+美资券商的相关问题。\n\nCRS是看不到你的交易明细的,只会看到你在CRS辖区内账户在几个时间点的资金额。当你的资金体量比较大的时候,你就可能被盯上。目前是各地税局分别负责,全国没有统一标准,但是金额门槛正在下沉。去年还只是查千万美金级别的户主,今年甚至有几十万美金的户主也中招。\n\n假如你有一张港卡,被CRS交换了,金额又达到了某个标准,那么税局就有可能会盯上你。这时候税局不是直接按照他们掌握的信息来收税,而是会要求你主动申报,要你把海外所有账户的银行流水、券商交易记录交出来,一般是看近3年的(有的甚至会要求看6年,但是你可以找会计和他们argue,有专业人士介入会好很多)。虽然税局本身看不到你的交易明细和流水,更看不到你美资券商的买卖记录,但问题是你敢不敢隐瞒呢?你要不要冒着犯罪的风险去造假流水呢?很多人不敢。这也是为什么很多人用美资券商还是会被收税。\n\n如果你是美国银行账户+美国券商,原则上不可能被CRS侦测到,中国税局也不会知道你在外国有账户,更不会找你索要信息。但在实操过程中,这样也存在很多问题。比如,中国人如何把大额资金弄到美国?大部分人的大额资金出境都要通过香港账户,因为香港是全世界对出入金监管最宽松的地方之一。\n\n美国对洗钱防范得特别严格。联邦法律规定一万美金以上的流动就要自动进入系统以备检查。所以出入金特别困难。如果外国人的账户长期有不同的外国人汇钱进来,很可能就会被封户。人在美国的外国人的账户会好很多,系统会备注你的信息,所以留学生收到国内很多汇款也一般不会出现问题。\n\n但是只要你人在美国半年以上,这就包括了所有留学生和在美工作的中国人,你的投资收益是要按照美国人的标准去交美国税的,这个税比中国的税还重。而且逃税的惩罚非常非常严重,美国税局IRS比中国要严厉很多。\n\n那能不能把钱汇给正在美国留学的孩子,然后再转去中国父母的美资券商账户呢?这样既不会被美国银行风控封户,也逃过了被CRS和中国税局的追踪,也不用交美国的税。答案是很难操作。因为法律规定,外国人在美国开的券商账户只接受同名账户的转账。当然你还是可以让子女再把钱一次性打到你的美国银行账户,再转入券商。因为是在美国国内亲属一次性打款的,不是很多个5万美金的境外汇款,这就不会引起风控。但是我必须说,我不是在鼓励大家逃税!\n\n但是这种方法不适合资金体量比较大的人操作,因为很难通过多个5万美金的蚂蚁搬家把钱汇出去。大部分人还是会选择地下钱庄来换钱,这又叫“对敲”。也就是你在中国往钱庄的中国境内账户打一笔钱,同时钱庄往你的境外账户打一笔等值的美金。都必须是即时到账,降低风险。大家都看到到账后,再马上打下一笔。这样敲几次,就把钱换走了。对敲被认为是最保险的,因为如果不是即时到账,谁都担心被骗。再说一遍,我不是在鼓励大家非法换汇。\n\n对敲一般只能用港卡,因为香港和中国一样,可以大额资金境内转账即时到账,而且不容易触发风控;而在美国就非常困难。一是美国即使是国内大额转账也不是即时到账,二是你的美国账户短时间收到好几笔大额款项,八成账户就会被封。\n\n但是港卡一旦有大额款项,通过CRS,中国税局就会知道你在海外有资金了。所以这就是为什么大部分有钱人走资以后,都会被CRS查到并要求补税。就是因为他们不得不用港卡走资。即使不用港卡,所有能满足对敲需求的地区都在CRS网络里面。\n\n今天我讲的是普通有钱人遇到的问题,明天我来讲一讲中国税局是如何对付企业家的。顶豪们早就在税局重点关注的名单上了,但同时也早就请律师和会计做好了各种架构,身份也移民了,早已不是中国税务居民,钱也不是通过地下钱庄,而是通过外资股东分红和一层层壳公司,用各种复杂的商业操作换走的,非常难被穿透。但是现在中国税局也进化出了一套方法,让这些人的海外收入缴税。明天再讲其中的门道。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981387300069134635","view_count":179390,"bookmark_count":1407,"created_at":1761234519000,"favorite_count":1113,"quote_count":5,"reply_count":40,"retweet_count":258,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1981387300069134635","full_text":"我最近找德勤做了点业务,终于搞清楚了CRS的原理,也终于明白了为什么美国明明不在CRS里面,但有些人用美国券商(如IBKR)还是会被追税。顺便也说一下地下钱庄换汇和税务的风险,以及中国人用美国银行卡+美资券商的相关问题。这绝对是全网相关议题最详细和深入的讨论!\n\nCRS是看不到你的交易明细的,只会看到你在CRS辖区内账户在几个时间点的资金额。当你的资金体量比较大的时候,你就可能被盯上。目前是各地税局分别负责,全国没有统一标准,但是金额门槛正在下沉。去年还只是查千万美金级别的户主,今年甚至有几十万美金的户主也中招。\n\n假如你有一张港卡,被CRS交换了,金额又达到了某个标准,那么税局就有可能会盯上你。这时候税局不是直接按照他们掌握的信息来收税,而是会要求你主动申报,要你把海外所有账户的银行流水、券商交易记录交出来,一般是看近3年的(有的甚至会要求看6年,但是你可以找会计和他们argue,有专业人士介入会好很多)。虽然税局本身看不到你的交易明细和流水,更看不到你美资券商的买卖记录,但问题是你敢不敢隐瞒呢?你要不要冒着犯罪的风险去造假流水呢?很多人不敢。这也是为什么很多人用美资券商还是会被收税。\n\n如果你是美国银行账户+美国券商,原则上不可能被CRS侦测到,中国税局也不会知道你在外国有账户,更不会找你索要信息。但在实操过程中,这样也存在很多问题。比如,中国人如何把大额资金弄到美国?大部分人的大额资金出境都要通过香港账户,因为香港是全世界对出入金监管最宽松的地方之一。\n\n美国对洗钱防范得特别严格。联邦法律规定一万美金以上的流动就要自动进入系统以备检查。所以出入金特别困难。如果外国人的账户长期有不同的外国人汇钱进来,很可能就会被封户。人在美国的外国人的账户会好很多,系统会备注你的信息,所以留学生收到国内很多汇款也一般不会出现问题。\n\n但是只要你人在美国半年以上,这就包括了所有留学生和在美工作的中国人,你的投资收益是要按照美国人的标准去交美国税的,这个税比中国的税还重。而且逃税的惩罚非常非常严重,美国税局IRS比中国要严厉很多。\n\n那能不能把钱汇给正在美国留学的孩子,然后再转去中国父母的美资券商账户呢?这样既不会被美国银行风控封户,也逃过了被CRS和中国税局的追踪,也不用交美国的税。答案是很难操作。因为法律规定,外国人在美国开的券商账户只接受同名账户的转账。当然你还是可以让子女再把钱一次性打到你的美国银行账户,再转入券商。因为是在美国国内亲属一次性打款的,不是很多个5万美金的境外汇款,这就不会引起风控。但是我必须说,我不是在鼓励大家逃税!\n\n但是这种方法不适合资金体量比较大的人操作,因为很难通过多个5万美金的蚂蚁搬家把钱汇出去。大部分人还是会选择地下钱庄来换钱,这又叫“对敲”。也就是你在中国往钱庄的中国境内账户打一笔钱,同时钱庄往你的境外账户打一笔等值的美金。都必须是即时到账,降低风险。大家都看到到账后,再马上打下一笔。这样敲几次,就把钱换走了。对敲被认为是最保险的,因为如果不是即时到账,谁都担心被骗。再说一遍,我不是在鼓励大家非法换汇。\n\n对敲一般只能用港卡,因为香港和中国一样,可以大额资金境内转账即时到账,而且不容易触发风控;而在美国就非常困难。一是美国即使是国内大额转账也不是即时到账,二是你的美国账户短时间收到好几笔大额款项,八成账户就会被封。\n\n但是港卡一旦有大额款项,通过CRS,中国税局就会知道你在海外有资金了。所以这就是为什么大部分有钱人走资以后,都会被CRS查到并要求补税。就是因为他们不得不用港卡走资。即使不用港卡,所有能满足对敲需求的地区都在CRS网络里面。\n\n今天我讲的是普通有钱人遇到的问题,明天我来讲一讲中国税局是如何对付企业家的。顶豪们早就在税局重点关注的名单上了,但同时也早就请律师和会计做好了各种架构,身份也移民了,早已不是中国税务居民,钱也不是通过地下钱庄,而是通过外资股东分红和一层层壳公司,用各种复杂的商业操作换走的,非常难被穿透。但是现在中国税局也进化出了一套方法,让这些人的海外收入缴税。明天再讲其中的门道。为什么你移民到了国外,依然可能会被中国税局追税?他们又是如何做到的。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,19],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamp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Don’t despair; America will come back and so will Berkshire shares.\n\n注意,这里用的是未来时,也就是巴菲特预计未来股价会大幅波动,而且会下跌50%。\n\n结合巴菲特在早前的股东大会说,他不希望预测时间,但他觉得重大的投资机会会在5年内出现;以及他说,没有人愿意持有正在奔向地狱的货币。我还在消化这里面的信息。之后再和大家细聊。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,105],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988253398010036397","view_count":46697,"bookmark_count":111,"created_at":1762871524000,"favorite_count":210,"quote_count":6,"reply_count":20,"retweet_count":29,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988253398010036397","full_text":"巴菲特给股东写了一封长信,并宣称之后会安静下来,和股东沟通的任务交给新CEO。他几乎没有评价现在的市场。但却单独起了一段只讲了一句话:我们的股价将会大幅波动,偶尔会下跌大约 50%,在现任管理层执掌公司的 60 年里,这种情况已经发生过三次。不要灰心,美国会再度振作,伯克希尔的股价也会随之回升。\n\n巴菲特的这封长信主要是在回顾人生,初看非常励志、非常暖心。但当我看到那句话时,我惊出一身冷汗。这仿佛是在大灾难之前给人们做好心理建设。\n\nOur stock price will move capriciously, occasionally falling 50% or so as has happened three times in 60 years under present management. Don’t despair; America will come back and so will Berkshire shares.\n\n注意,这里用的是未来时,也就是巴菲特预计未来股价会大幅波动,而且会下跌50%。\n\n巴菲特几十年来撰写的所有的股东信我都读过,他这些年的每一个年会和采访我都看过。巴菲特说话从来都很含蓄,从来不会完全说破。对于不熟悉他风格的人,乍听一下,他说的每一句话都没有什么深意。比如上面那句话,任何时候、任何公司的股价都可能大幅波动甚至腰斩,尤其是在一个很长的时间线上。但是当你听他说话多了以后,就会发现他有个习惯,每说一句话都要停下来想一想,每一句话都不是随口乱说的。他非常讲究在什么时间说什么话。比如在早前的几次股灾中,他会说要注意估值风险。这句话看似也是没有什么意义。投资什么时候不应该关心估值风险呢?但巴菲特只会在他觉得市场泡沫的时候这样说。在他要大举出手买货的时候,他会说宁愿花不便宜的价钱买好公司。\n\n巴菲特之所以是股神,并不是他能押中最赚钱的股票,而是他践行了他的名言:只有当潮水退去时,才知道谁在裸泳。\n\n结合巴菲特在早前的股东大会上的说法,他不希望预测时间,但他觉得重大的投资机会会在5年内出现;以及他说,没有人愿意持有正在奔向地狱的货币。我还在消化这里面的信息。之后再和大家细聊。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[9,93],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"945607507510038528","name":"Pathfinder","screen_name":"Pathusa","indices":[0,8]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Pathusa","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988242829651608061","view_count":1979,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1762869005000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1987933646767136949","full_text":"@Pathusa Circle有两个致命问题。盈利高度依赖国债收益率,跟coinbase签订了无法解约的卖身契。Circle除非找到新的增长点,才有大爆发的潜力。现在这个价位还不够安全。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"945607507510038528","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987933646767136949","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-13","value":0,"startTime":1762905600000,"endTime":1762992000000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-14","value":51316,"startTime":1762992000000,"endTime":1763078400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,140],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988986827848798543","view_count":33,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763046388000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988986827848798543","full_text":"巴菲特曾经赞扬过中国对加密行业的管制。其实中国政府做得非常差,漏洞到处都是。我认为支付宝和微信出入金加密货币,应该立刻封号。这已经成为电信诈骗利用的漏洞。目前英美的汇丰银行、摩根大通才真正走在了风控的前列,基本上离岸账户(非开户行所在地居民的账号)在加密货币出入金就会被终身封户。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,143],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988993507542069645","view_count":26,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763047980000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988993507542069645","full_text":"中国应效法美国,向境外汇款超过1万美金,必须合规审查,没有备案的加密货币交易,或境外账户的买卖,终身封户(美国叫做debank)。境内用户也必须要在交易所报备个人社会信用信息才能交易。中国的国际汇款和加密货币出入金既没和个人征信绑定,违规也不封卡、封微信,政府不作为,电诈才有可乘之机!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1988893869212139873","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/J7x0x5DgHO","expanded":"https://twitter.com/ipaulcanada/status/1988893869212139873","display":"x.com/ipaulcanada/st…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989012531592196460","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763052516000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989012531592196460","full_text":"做空的前提是赚钱而不是赌气。21年卖房买美股,25年再低价买回来,然后超低利息贷给银行,套钱出来买黄金。生娃生三个,每胎拿补贴。黄金不变现,加上银行贷款是负债,千万富翁白嫖低保。银行要完成社融数据,心甘情愿被你薅羊毛。这才是在中国生活的最高境界。那些不生孩子,不买房的,都在给你打工。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1988893869212139873","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/J7x0x5DgHO","expanded":"https://twitter.com/ipaulcanada/status/1988893869212139873","display":"x.com/ipaulcanada/st…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989012279996871062","view_count":43,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763052456000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989012279996871062","full_text":"做空的前提是赚钱而不是赌气。21年卖房买美股,25年再低价买回来,然后超低利息贷给银行,套钱出来买黄金。生娃生三个,每胎拿补贴。黄金不变现,加上银行贷款是负债,千万富翁白嫖低保。银行要完成社融数据,心甘情愿被你薅羊毛。这才是在中国生活的最高境界。那些不生孩子,不买房,都是在给你打工。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,140],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989015555748294766","view_count":42911,"bookmark_count":60,"created_at":1763053237000,"favorite_count":238,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":16,"retweet_count":21,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989015555748294766","full_text":"大家记得,牛市让你赚小钱,熊市才让你发大财。牛市中大家都在赚钱,你只能保证不掉队,或者缓慢爬坡。熊市里大家都不赚钱,但你把握住了机会,就会一举跨越阶级。所以强者永远不抱怨这里经济不好,也不羡慕那里大环境更好。顶级投资者,包括股神巴菲特,往往在牛市里表现平平,但熊市一来,一飞冲天。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1820104162715246592","name":"malaimo","screen_name":"0rain4fall","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"0rain4fall","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989017760803008630","view_count":8303,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1763053762000,"favorite_count":18,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988930609809695067","full_text":"@0rain4fall 叶文洁是自己按的。首先叶文洁有那个本事,才有资格去按那个按钮。你若不是叶文洁,就忍着吧。即使你是,按了以后也要再等400年。人生像油条,要想成熟先煎熬。而且话说回来。有的人真可悲,绝望的时候宁可选择毁灭,也不去信靠能带来救赎的耶稣基督。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1820104162715246592","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1988930609809695067","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-15","value":36439,"startTime":1763078400000,"endTime":1763164800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,14],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1985737463823011847","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/xiBsvWdxPC","expanded":"https://twitter.com/realtaoray/status/1985737463823011847","display":"x.com/realtaoray/sta…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989127805507105041","view_count":683,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763079999000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989127805507105041","full_text":"我这个空单的含金量还在上升!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,84],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989134466900808016","view_count":33951,"bookmark_count":19,"created_at":1763081587000,"favorite_count":57,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":13,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989134466900808016","full_text":"何同学进军英文油管。大有成为华人第一YouTuber的驾驶。短短几个视频,已经超越百万订阅,单个视频播放量也在百万上下。我觉得他的视频是挺有意思,比飓风影音好看太多了。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,47],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989183690363249058","view_count":128,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763093323000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989183690363249058","full_text":"大空头Michael Burry的例子告诉我们:所谓的人生发财靠康波,其实是,坑你一波又一波。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,61],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"realTaoRay","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989125269731655997","view_count":1677,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763079395000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989015555748294766","full_text":"我说的不是美股,美股还在牛市里,虽然要居安思危。我说的是中国。我看到网上很多绝望的声音,甚至有人说要叶文洁按电钮之类的话。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989015555748294766","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-16","value":0,"startTime":1763164800000,"endTime":1763251200000,"tweets":[]}]},"interactions":{"users":[{"created_at":1662646932000,"uid":"1567880920505683970","id":"1567880920505683970","screen_name":"Comic_sofi01","name":"Jo 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Use Twitter Spaces or tweet threads to build deeper conversations and showcase personal stories from expats, turning followers into an engaged tribe."},"created":1763187236242,"type":"the thought leader","id":"mylatinlife"},{"user":{"id":"1955025597207359488","name":"Goku","description":"investor, writer, and full time saviour of earth.","followers_count":488,"friends_count":77,"statuses_count":1123,"profile_image_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1974577248759111680/uQ_UMyIs_normal.jpg","screen_name":"kakarot_ai","location":"","entities":{"description":{"urls":[]}}},"details":{"type":"The Thought Leader","description":"Goku is a forward-thinking investor and writer who lives at the intersection of AI innovation and tech futurism. Known for breaking down complex subjects like AI coding agents and generative search optimization, Goku educates and excites his audience with visionary insights. Always ahead of the curve, he’s the go-to savior of Earth through ideas and investment smarts.","purpose":"To revolutionize how technology influences the world by advocating cutting-edge AI advancements and guiding others to understand and harness these powerful innovations for a better future.","beliefs":"Goku believes in the transformative power of AI and technology to solve longstanding problems and empower humanity. He values transparency, innovation, and the quest for impactful knowledge, all while promoting responsible tech adoption that benefits society as a whole.","facts":"Fun fact: Goku tweets extensively about breakthrough AI technologies, like DeepMind’s Codemender and context engineering, making him a beacon for AI-driven software development trends.","strength":"Goku’s strengths lie in his razor-sharp insight into emerging technologies, ability to communicate complex ideas succinctly, and his visionary mindset that anticipates industry disruptions before they happen.","weakness":"His laser focus on AI and tech jargon may sometimes alienate casual followers who crave simpler explanations or a broader variety of topics.","recommendation":"To grow his audience on X, Goku should blend his expert-level analysis with more digestible content formats such as short threads, infographics, or even interactive Q&A sessions. Featuring more real-world implications of AI could also engage a wider community beyond pure tech enthusiasts.","roast":"For someone who saves Earth full time with their keyboard, Goku sure spends a lot of time tweeting like the planet can’t survive a single typo. Maybe take a break and let the AI fix your grammar for once?","win":"Goku’s biggest win is popularizing the concept of ‘context engineering’ as the next frontier in AI prompt mastery, positioning himself as a thought leader in a space that’s rewriting how AI tools interact with human data."},"created":1763187015792,"type":"the thought leader","id":"kakarot_ai"},{"user":{"id":"1611662265975013376","name":"Myu 🪽","description":"Writer | Night Owl | Web3 Advisor | Content Strategist @cicada_mm & @MetaRacing_io","followers_count":4073,"friends_count":428,"statuses_count":33025,"profile_image_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1887679925760540672/-RYp6N65_normal.jpg","screen_name":"meta_myu","location":"Web3","entities":{"description":{"urls":[]}}},"details":{"type":"The Thought Leader","description":"Myu 🪽 is a wise night owl who blends deep knowledge of Web3 and content strategy with a passion for skill-building and community engagement. As a prolific tweeter, they focus on inspiring their audience to prioritize lasting growth over fleeting trends. Myu's content shines with motivational energy, calling followers to action even in the late hours.","purpose":"To empower others by sharing strategic insights about Web3, content, and personal development, fostering a culture that values consistency and skill over hype. They aim to be a guiding light for their community, turning knowledge into actionable change.","beliefs":"They believe that skills are the ultimate, permanent asset and that success comes from consistent action rather than chasing temporary wins. Authenticity, education, and meaningful engagement are core values that shape their online presence.","facts":"Despite tweeting over 33,000 times, Myu maintains an engaging and thoughtful tone, proving that quality motivation can come from sheer consistency and genuine interaction—especially for night owls!","strength":"Exceptional ability to inspire and motivate with concise wisdom, combined with deep understanding of Web3 and content strategy. They cultivate strong community engagement by responding actively, especially during late-night hours.","weakness":"Occasionally may engage in too many conversations at once, risking dilution of their message and overwhelming followers who aren’t night owls. The high tweet volume could sometimes cause fatigue among newer followers.","roast":"Myu probably has their phone on a 24/7 night shift, replying to all the late-night snackers while the rest of us mere mortals are just dreaming about morning coffee. At this rate, they’re the reason insomnia exists!","win":"Successfully established themselves as a trusted Web3 advisor and content strategist with a strong niche audience that values skill development over quick wins, all while maintaining steady late-night engagement.","recommendation":"To grow their audience on X, Myu should leverage their thought leadership by hosting regular Twitter Spaces or AMAs during the late-night hours where they thrive. Highlighting user success stories and creating curated Web3 educational threads will boost sharing and follower trust."},"created":1763186805836,"type":"the thought leader","id":"meta_myu"},{"user":{"id":"47825147","name":"Alex Elliott","description":"Dad | DevOps / SRE | FinTech | Management | Paintball | @rutgersu grad | I write lots of threads.","followers_count":3330,"friends_count":1005,"statuses_count":21872,"profile_image_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1767327386373128192/azA47fZp_normal.jpg","screen_name":"alexpotato","location":"","entities":{"description":{"urls":[]},"url":{"urls":[{"display_url":"alexpotato.com/books/?l=xp","expanded_url":"http://alexpotato.com/books/?l=xp","url":"https://t.co/nggdho1uxt","indices":[0,23]}]}}},"details":{"type":"The Thought Leader","description":"Alex Elliott is a seasoned DevOps and SRE expert in FinTech who combines deep industry knowledge with practical management insights. A proud Rutgers grad and dedicated dad, Alex is known for crafting engaging, insightful threads that decode complex technical and financial systems for the curious. Whether sharing lessons from outages or innovative interview tactics, Alex sparks meaningful conversations that resonate with both peers and aspiring professionals.","purpose":"Alex’s life purpose is to illuminate the often opaque world of DevOps and FinTech by sharing real-world experience and thoughtful analysis, helping others grow technically and professionally while fostering a community of inquisitive minds.","beliefs":"Alex believes in transparency, continuous learning, and the power of thoughtful problem-solving over rote answers. He values honesty in communication, mentorship, and leveraging technology to improve systems—viewing every outage or glitch not as a setback but as an opportunity for growth and insight.","facts":"Even though Alex has tweeted over 21,000 times, he still finds fresh ways to surprise his audience with compelling threads that dissect everything from file transfers in financial institutions to the quirks of coding interviews.","strength":"Alex’s greatest strength lies in his ability to break down complex, technical subjects into engaging narratives that educate and inspire. His extensive real-world experience and candid style foster credibility and trust, making his content a go-to resource for DevOps and FinTech professionals alike.","weakness":"With over 21,000 tweets, Alex risks overwhelming his audience with sheer volume, and at times, his content may get buried or overlooked amid the noise. Additionally, his focus on highly specialized topics might limit appeal to a broader audience outside his niche.","recommendation":"To grow his audience on X, Alex should consider spotlighting his top-performing threads through pinning and retweet highlights to maximize visibility. Engaging more in conversations within the FinTech and DevOps communities using relevant hashtags and joining trending industry discussions will broaden reach. Short, punchy insights paired with his deep dives can capture quick scrollers and convert them into long-term followers.","roast":"Alex tweets so much, the Twitter algorithm probably thinks he’s single-handedly responsible for the platform’s entire data center running hot — if only he spent as much time sleeping as he does writing threads, he might actually have time to read his own tweets!","win":"Alex’s top tweet struck a chord with over half a million views and thousands of likes and retweets by revealing an inside Ops joke that resonated deeply with industry insiders, cementing his status as a relatable and authoritative voice in DevOps."},"created":1763186162545,"type":"the thought leader","id":"alexpotato"}],"activities":{"nreplies":[{"label":"2025-10-17","value":0,"startTime":1760572800000,"endTime":1760659200000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-18","value":0,"startTime":1760659200000,"endTime":1760745600000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-19","value":47,"startTime":1760745600000,"endTime":1760832000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979568813151850933","view_count":264,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760800958000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979568813151850933","full_text":"我非常看好西方石油。在投资之前,我曾经亲自走访过它的公司和油田,研究其财报。深入调查后,我信心满满。最近的回调给了我继续加仓的大好良机。赚钱的机会往往出现在被市场错杀的时候。我简要分享我长期看好西方石油的逻辑,为何分析师错的离谱,以及我最新的资产配置。\n\n1. 最近西方股价下杀,有两大原因。一是国际油价下跌,第二是西方石油把其化工产业卖给了巴菲特的伯克希尔。很多分析师觉得西方石油把一块非常有利润的业务舍弃了,所以引起恐慌抛售。然而这是完全不理性的。第一,西方石油拿到了九十多亿的现金,能够让其财务更健康。具体财务分析我就不细说了,然而我想强调,巴菲特作为西方石油最大的股东,怎么可能花钱做不利于西方石油的收购呢?搬起石头砸自己的脚?让自己的股份贬值吗?这显然不可能。在巴菲特完成收购后,西方石油CEO Hollub在上个礼拜说西方石油之后将会财务更加稳健,业务更加集中,增加更加迅速,计划股价在五年内翻倍。这是得到了巴菲特背书的测算。在现在的投机环境下,这是相当可观的增长。\n\n2. 巴菲特讲过投资西方石油是他对未来AI时代的布局。AI一定会导致电力需求暴增,而西方石油的天然气业务一定会迎来爆炸式增长。这也是个AI时代卖铲子的好生意。现在美国的电力已经出现严重短缺,建立新的发电厂的投资络绎不绝,电力设备公司的股价已经屡创新高,相信这股势头很快就会传导到能源公司。巴菲特也明确说明收购西方石油的化工业务也是为了能让西方石油能够有更多资金,集中全部资源发展核心能源业务,把握住未来AI时代的大趋势。这绝对是非常明智的长远战略布局。这就像一个企业家有一个稳定收租的豪宅,当市场的大机会来临时,对于企业家来说,卖掉这个豪宅给一个有钱,且只想经营被动收入的老人,拿一大笔钱去做自己擅长的大生意才是最明智的。这对于企业家和老人是真正的双赢,而且老人本身也是企业家生意的第一大股东。如果市场分析师解读为企业家放弃了优良资产那是大错特错的。所以我觉得市场完全错误评估了这场收购。\n\n3. 最近美国股市波动加大,银行坏账问题浮出水面,市场避险情绪急剧升温。未来的宏观经济并不容乐观,所以对经济放缓的担忧打击了油价。然而经济放缓的底层原因是什么呢?是债务货币化。全球债务水平已经不可持续,美国的债务利息支出都已经超过了军费,而且还在上升。最后不可避免要通过超发货币来解决债务问题。美国通胀依旧保持在高位,但是经济和就业已经放缓,不得不进入降息周期,这让货币贬值的压力进一步增大。这也是黄金作为抗击货币贬值的终极利器为何迎来历史性大涨。石油虽然会受到经济周期的影响,在经济放缓中需求减弱,但是石油具作为能源必需品和大宗商品,具有强定价权,所以长期看石油公司总是能够在不确定性中穿越宏观周期的,是典型的防御性板块,尤其是能够抵抗货币面值。我相信这也是为什么巴菲特在不看好宏观经济的情况下,却一直大举加仓西方石油和雪佛龙。\n\n这是一脉相承的,债务危机不断累积,风险资产、股市和加密货币开始宽幅震荡,黄金价格暴涨。对宏观经济的担忧首先影响了经济活力和就业,导致经济放缓,短期打击了石油需求,油价下跌。然而真正的病根,债务危机,很快会浮出水面,债务货币化和货币贬值会接踵而来,这又会长期托起油价。\n\n所以我一直在为此布局,今年下半年以来我不断减少科技股的持仓,开始配置大量的黄金、美债、以及能源和保险股(主要是西方石油、雪弗龙和联合健康)。我大概流动资产的配置是15%的美国短期债券,15%的股票,20%的美国长期国债,50%的黄金。\n\n长债和石油是相反的,短期利好,长期却承压。长债之前被压抑了很久,随着降息周期和避险情绪的增加应该会有一波上涨行情。但是随着债务货币化,名义收益率会骤降,长期波动肯定会加大,所以我并不打算长期持有,会在降息周期中择机抛售,继续增持黄金,以及在低位配置能源股。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,141],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979574646266802656","view_count":50942,"bookmark_count":212,"created_at":1760802349000,"favorite_count":261,"quote_count":3,"reply_count":29,"retweet_count":48,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979574646266802656","full_text":"我非常看好西方石油。在投资之前,我曾亲自走访过它的油田,研究其财报。最近的回调给了我继续加仓的大好良机。赚钱的机会往往出现在被市场错杀的时候。未来是AI革命与宏观经济危机并存的年代,所以投资上有很多的挑战,看了这篇文章你就会理解为何投资西方石油是巴菲特应对危机和技术革命的神来之笔。\n\n1. 最近西方股价下杀,有两大原因。一是国际油价下跌,第二是西方石油把其化工产业卖给了巴菲特的伯克希尔。很多人觉得西方石油把一块非常有利润的业务舍弃了,所以引起恐慌抛售。然而这是完全不理性的。第一,西方石油拿到了九十多亿的现金,能够让其财务更健康。具体财务分析我就不细说了,然而我想强调,巴菲特作为西方石油最大的股东,怎么可能花钱做不利于西方石油的收购呢?搬起石头砸自己的脚?让自己的股份贬值吗?这显然不可能。在巴菲特完成收购后,西方石油CEO Hollub在上个礼拜说西方石油之后将会财务更加稳健,业务更加集中,增加更加迅速,计划股价在五年内翻倍。这是得到了巴菲特背书的测算。在现在的投机环境下,这是相当可观的增长。\n\n2. 巴菲特讲过投资西方石油是他对未来AI时代的布局。AI一定会导致电力需求暴增,而西方石油的天然气业务一定会迎来爆炸式增长。这也是个AI时代卖铲子的好生意。现在美国的电力已经出现严重短缺,建立新的发电厂的投资络绎不绝,电力设备公司的股价已经屡创新高,相信这股势头很快就会传导到能源公司。巴菲特也明确说明收购西方石油的化工业务也是为了能让西方石油能够有更多资金,集中全部资源发展核心能源业务,把握住这个未来的大趋势。这绝对是非常明智的长远战略布局。这就像一个企业家有一个稳定收租的豪宅,当市场机会来临时,对于企业家来说,卖掉这个豪宅给一个有钱,且只想经营被动收入的老人,拿一大笔钱去做自己擅长的大生意才是最明智的。这对于企业家和老人是真正的双赢,而且老人本身也是企业家生意的第一大股东。如果市场解读为企业家放弃了优良资产那是大错特错的。所以我觉得市场完全错误估计了这场收购。\n\n3. 最近美国股市波动加大,银行坏账问题浮出水面,市场避险情绪急剧升温。未来的宏观经济并不容乐观,所以对经济放缓的担忧打击了油价。然而经济放缓的底层原因是什么呢?是债务货币化。全球债务水平已经不可持续,美国的债务利息支出都已经超过了军费,而且还在上升。最后不可避免要通过超发货币来解决债务问题。美国通胀依旧保持在高位,但是经济和就业已经放缓,不得不进入降息周期,这让货币贬值的压力进一步增大。这也是黄金作为抗击货币贬值的终极利器为何迎来历史性大涨。石油虽然会受到经济周期的影响,在经济放缓中需求减弱,但是石油具作为能源必需品和大宗商品,具有强定价权,所以长期看石油公司总是能够在不确定性中穿越宏观周期的,是典型的防御性板块,尤其是能够抵抗货币面值。我相信这也是为什么巴菲特在不看好宏观经济的情况下,却一直大举加仓西方石油和雪佛龙。\n\n这是一脉相承的,债务危机不断累积,风险资产、股市和加密货币开始宽幅震荡,黄金价格暴涨。对宏观经济的担忧导致经济放缓,短期打击了石油需求,导致油价下跌。然而真正的债务危机很快会浮出水面,债务货币化和货币贬值又会长期托起油价。\n\n所以我一直在为此布局,今年下半年以来我不断减少科技股的持仓,开始配置大量的黄金、美债、以及能源和保险股(主要是西方石油、雪弗龙和联合健康)。我大概流动资产的配置是15%的美国短期债券,15%的股票,20%的美国长期国债,50%的黄金。\n\n长债和石油是相反的,短期利好,长期承压。长债之前被压抑了很久,随着降息周期和避险情绪的增加应该会有一波上涨行情。但是随着债务货币化,名义收益率会骤降,长期波动肯定会加大,所以我并不打算长期持有,会在降息周期中择机抛售,继续增持黄金,以及在低位配置能源股。\n\n最后我还想再说说巴菲特。很多人说巴菲特投资西方石油亏损了,因为他买了以后股价下跌了很多。其实巴菲特并没有亏,因为他除了购买了大量的普通股(这部分确实亏损了),但是他同时也购买了很多优先股。这部分的股价是不变的,而且每年还会给巴菲特8%的股息分红。这样一中和,巴菲特一点都不亏。这也非常符合巴菲特的投资性格,不渴求买到股价的最底部,只要有足够的安全边际就会毫不犹豫的下场。巴菲特可以说是对西方石油的信心与日俱增,不然也不会又花90多亿让其可以扩大能源项目的布局。然而我们买不到优先股,所以如果在巴菲特买股票的时候,也马上跟着买,持仓成本会比巴菲特高很多。所以我之前一直不买西方石油,只有在股价回调时大举进入。很多人说抄巴菲特作业亏本了,其实是不会抄罢了。抄作业也有技巧。我们必须把巴菲特的持仓成本做好换算后再抄作业。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979586375763771425","view_count":19045,"bookmark_count":40,"created_at":1760805145000,"favorite_count":82,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":12,"retweet_count":11,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979586375763771425","full_text":"今晚讲黄金和加密货币!过些日子讲债券配置:短债和货币基金有什么区别?TLT和直债如何选择?以及4大银行如何选择?(摩根大通、美国银行、摩根士丹利、汇丰)普通业务怎么选?外汇业务怎么选?投资业务怎么选?私人银行业务怎么选?中国、香港、新加坡、美国、瑞士怎么选?怎样全球资产配置可以如虎添翼?","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[33,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1674011365340778496","name":"G L","screen_name":"GL7525638026680","indices":[0,16]},{"id_str":"1161248776880832512","name":"David_Z","screen_name":"DavidZ11966088","indices":[17,32]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"GL7525638026680","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979577309876326683","view_count":6694,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1760802984000,"favorite_count":21,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1958544604820889790","full_text":"@GL7525638026680 @DavidZ11966088 短期震荡不可预测,长期必将一飞冲天。当年比特币的增长是什么水平,黄金就会怎么涨。比特币只号称是数字黄金,当债务货币化真正到来的时候,真正的黄金会一路高歌猛进。全球债务已经达到了史无前例的水平,黄金也会有史无前例的增长。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1674011365340778496","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1979572292418994602","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[16,38],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1161248776880832512","name":"David_Z","screen_name":"DavidZ11966088","indices":[0,15]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"DavidZ11966088","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979568994773553522","view_count":6088,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760801001000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1958544604820889790","full_text":"@DavidZ11966088 我刚刚为此写了一篇文章,你可以在我主页上看。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1161248776880832512","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1979319933113930001","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-20","value":0,"startTime":1760832000000,"endTime":1760918400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,116],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979845314447389073","view_count":67,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760866881000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979845314447389073","full_text":"杨振宁的科学成就是毋庸置疑的。至于他的人品和为人,我不认识他,所以完全无感,无所谓好坏。但是我感觉网上骂他的人,一大部分是因为羡慕嫉妒恨。他们要是有能力和统战价值,未必不去捞名捞利,未必不想找个年轻老婆,可惜他们没有这个能力和价值。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,77],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"2561532174","name":"Zhaonuo","screen_name":"gaoxiaoccp","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"gaoxiaoccp","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979765095661236226","view_count":1,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760847755000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979574646266802656","full_text":"@gaoxiaoccp 你有所不知,今年3月份已经有超过一大半的warrant提前行权了。剩下那一点对普通股的稀释可以忽略不计。只要稍微回购一下就抵消了。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"2561532174","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1979635552476713439","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,123],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1565895325944270849","name":"徐老猫","screen_name":"raycat2021","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"raycat2021","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979847060003434761","view_count":840,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760867297000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979737042360947112","full_text":"@raycat2021 不是我看小美国人。普通美国人挣的那三瓜两枣,又没有自制力,交完房租和日常吃喝用度,根本攒不下来多少钱投资股市。就是月光族,最后啥也不剩。买房可以改变消费习惯,增加储蓄动力,而且贷款不会比租金贵太多,不知不觉你会攒下一套房。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1565895325944270849","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1979737042360947112","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-21","value":97,"startTime":1760918400000,"endTime":1761004800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,146],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980108656231530993","view_count":95,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760929666000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980108656231530993","full_text":"一块iPhone这么大的金条已经30万美金了。以后世界上只会有两种人,已经拥有黄金的,和再也卖不起黄金的人。全球债务水平达到了自有人类以来的最高峰,债务货币化不可避免。5000年来,黄金是抗击货币贬值的唯一终极工具。黄金一旦进入央行的地下金库,就永远出不来了,所以市面上流通的黄金会越来越少。全世界一共只有22立方米的黄金,越来越多央行在加速囤积黄金。我上几次说黄金时,有不少自不量力的网友又说我在找接盘侠。不是我看不起我自己和各位。我们这些小虾米,全部倾家荡产地去买卖黄金,都贱不起一个小水花。按照今天美国人的储蓄水平,99%的人都已经买不起一块iPhone这么大的金条了。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,146],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980115481924403484","view_count":223161,"bookmark_count":160,"created_at":1760931294000,"favorite_count":450,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":75,"retweet_count":43,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980115481924403484","full_text":"一块iPhone这么大的金条已经30万美金了。以后世界上只会有两种人,已经拥有黄金的,和再也卖不起黄金的人。全球债务水平达到了自有人类以来的最高峰,债务货币化不可避免。5000年来,黄金是抗击货币贬值的唯一终极工具。黄金一旦进入央行的地下金库,就永远出不来了,所以市面上流通的黄金会越来越少。全世界一共只有22米见方的黄金,越来越多央行在加速囤积黄金。我上几次说黄金时,有不少自不量力的网友又说我在找接盘侠。不是我看不起我自己和各位。我们这些小虾米,全部倾家荡产地去买卖黄金,都贱不起一个小水花。按照今天美国人的储蓄水平,99%的人都已经买不起一块iPhone这么大的金条了。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,140],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980123337406976369","view_count":15031,"bookmark_count":19,"created_at":1760933167000,"favorite_count":103,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":7,"retweet_count":8,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980123337406976369","full_text":"我发现最近X简中圈戾气很重。估计都是币圈合约爆雷的原因。简中圈一大半对财经的讨论都是有关炒币的。非常悲哀。大家要知道,在金融领域大部分普通人的财富都会被收割,所以要特别小心。普通人投资就应该买核心资产,好股票、国债、黄金。那些偏门的东西,妖股、合约、各种杠杆衍生品,碰一下就输了。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":true,"display_text_range":[0,143],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":true,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"realTaoRay","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980118718840774935","view_count":43109,"bookmark_count":50,"created_at":1760932066000,"favorite_count":113,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":10,"retweet_count":15,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980115481924403484","full_text":"核心资产一定是越来越高不可攀的。25年前普通中产可以咬咬牙在北上广深最核心的地段随便买房,40年前美国中产咬咬牙也能在曼哈顿买下核心房产。今天房价再跌,普通中产卷死自己也买不起这些核心资产了。10年前普通人轻轻松松买十个比特币,今天买一个都费劲。在科技革命和全球化的大背景下,世界的财富是几何式增长的,但是分配是不均匀的,所以普通人和有钱人的差距也在几何式拉大。核心资产会越来越远离普通人。有了就有,没有的,永远不会有。纵观人类5000年历史,一切金融危机都是资源过分错配的结果,一切社会动荡都是资源配置严重失衡的结果。以后会有一场革命来重新分配财富,可能是15年后,也可能是50年后。但越是如此,越彰显出黄金作为避险资产的重要性。之后我再说比特币和黄金的比较和异同。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980115481924403484","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[9,22],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1381098431532371969","name":"btctank","screen_name":"btctank","indices":[0,8]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"btctank","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980151719666569627","view_count":2047,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760939934000,"favorite_count":4,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980115481924403484","full_text":"@btctank 流动资产没有。除非卖房子。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1381098431532371969","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980147786210562340","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,34],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"869874904342114304","name":"Watervalle","screen_name":"watervalle","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"watervalle","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980157114497843480","view_count":1551,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760941220000,"favorite_count":13,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980115481924403484","full_text":"@watervalle iPhone这么大,不是iPhone这么重。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"869874904342114304","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980153350525173991","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[16,41],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1030112188277579778","name":"nobody","screen_name":"nobody02916666","indices":[0,15]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"nobody02916666","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980138250888241370","view_count":2692,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760936722000,"favorite_count":4,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980115481924403484","full_text":"@nobody02916666 你又知道我是被革命的对象?我可能散尽家财资助革命。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1030112188277579778","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980136471060414848","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[10,36],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1457238121679302657","name":"Colin Wu","screen_name":"WutalkWu","indices":[0,9]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"WutalkWu","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980149563253260786","view_count":10283,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1760939419000,"favorite_count":11,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980118861254164694","full_text":"@WutalkWu 中国文化中没有privacy和secrecy的区别。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1457238121679302657","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980118861254164694","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-22","value":1,"startTime":1761004800000,"endTime":1761091200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,141],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1980431376957513846","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/XAk9M456ZA","expanded":"https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1980431376957513846","display":"x.com/zerohedge/stat…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980471352504246759","view_count":3968,"bookmark_count":4,"created_at":1761016140000,"favorite_count":14,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980471352504246759","full_text":"1/3的美国人信用卡债务已经超过存款。这不仅仅是美国的问题,全世界都是如此。中国的隐性债更是大到难以估计。个人负债、国家负债、资不抵债成为全球经济的主旋律,美国作为火车头也深陷泥潭。自从有人类以来,全球债务水平没有这么高过。债务货币化不可避免,货币贬值板上钉钉,中长期黄金想跌都难。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-23","value":27,"startTime":1761091200000,"endTime":1761177600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,143],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980804450601357737","view_count":862,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761095557000,"favorite_count":7,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980804450601357737","full_text":"黄金暴跌?!简直就是笑话!相比黄金一直的大涨,这只能算是一个小小的波动。就算昨天跌完,单单最近一个月还是暴涨了10%。算上今年年初到现在,黄金涨过了我手上所有的股票,英伟达、标普、科技ETF、能源股。回调是加仓的好机会。牛市里千金难买牛回头,熊市里到处都是死猫条。黄金上涨的逻辑没改变。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,143],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980870679852650765","view_count":33429,"bookmark_count":30,"created_at":1761111347000,"favorite_count":199,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":23,"retweet_count":12,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980870679852650765","full_text":"黄金暴跌?!简直就是笑话!相比黄金一直的大涨,这只能算是一个小小的波动。就算昨天跌完,单单最近一个月还是暴涨了10%。算上今年年初到现在,黄金涨过了我手上所有的股票,英伟达、标普、科技ETF、能源股。回调是加仓的好机会。牛市里千金难买牛回头,熊市里到处都是死猫条。黄金上涨的逻辑没改变。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,63],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1366565625401909249","name":"Wall Street Mav","screen_name":"WallStreetMav","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"WallStreetMav","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981040326505603509","view_count":3190,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761151794000,"favorite_count":12,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1981011584832204920","full_text":"@WallStreetMav 把白宫里面装修成金色是不够的,应该把外墙都贴上24k金,从此改名叫金宫。这才是留名青史的大功绩。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1366565625401909249","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981011584832204920","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-24","value":102,"startTime":1761177600000,"endTime":1761264000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981386135763898725","view_count":2,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761234241000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1981386135763898725","full_text":"我前些天和德勤的一个中国区合伙人聊天,终于搞清楚了CRS的原理,也终于明白为什么美国明明不在CRS系统里面,但有些人用美国券商(如IBKR)还是会被追税。我今天就来讲一讲。顺便也说一下地下钱庄换汇和税务的风险,以及中国税务居民用美国银行卡+美资券商的相关问题。\n\nCRS是看不到你的交易明细的,只会看到你在CRS辖区内账户在几个时间点的资金额。当你的资金体量比较大的时候,你就可能被盯上。目前是各地税局分别负责,全国没有统一标准,但是金额门槛正在下沉。去年还只是查千万美金级别的户主,今年甚至有几十万美金的户主也中招。\n\n假如你有一张港卡,被CRS交换了,金额又达到了某个标准,那么税局就有可能会盯上你。这时候税局不是直接按照他们掌握的信息来收税,而是会要求你主动申报,要你把海外所有账户的银行流水、券商交易记录交出来,一般是看近3年的(有的甚至会要求看6年,但是你可以找会计和他们argue,有专业人士介入会好很多)。虽然税局本身看不到你的交易明细和流水,更看不到你美资券商的买卖记录,但问题是你敢不敢隐瞒呢?你要不要冒着犯罪的风险去造假流水呢?很多人不敢。这也是为什么很多人用美资券商还是会被收税。\n\n如果你是美国银行账户+美国券商,原则上不可能被CRS侦测到,中国税局也不会知道你在外国有账户,更不会找你索要信息。但在实操过程中,这样也存在很多问题。比如,中国人如何把大额资金弄到美国?大部分人的大额资金出境都要通过香港账户,因为香港是全世界对出入金监管最宽松的地方之一。\n\n美国对洗钱防范得特别严格。联邦法律规定一万美金以上的流动就要自动进入系统以备检查。所以出入金特别困难。如果外国人的账户长期有不同的外国人汇钱进来,很可能就会被封户。人在美国的外国人的账户会好很多,系统会备注你的信息,所以留学生收到国内很多汇款也一般不会出现问题。\n\n但是只要你人在美国半年以上,这就包括了所有留学生和在美工作的中国人,你的投资收益是要按照美国人的标准去交美国税的,这个税比中国的税还重。而且逃税的惩罚非常非常严重,美国税局IRS比中国要严厉很多。\n\n那能不能把钱汇给正在美国留学的孩子,然后再转去中国父母的美资券商账户呢?这样既不会被美国银行风控封户,也逃过了被CRS和中国税局的追踪,也不用交美国的税。答案是很难操作。因为法律规定,外国人在美国开的券商账户只接受同名账户的转账。当然你还是可以让子女再把钱一次性打到你的美国银行账户,再转入券商。因为是在美国国内亲属一次性打款的,不是很多个5万美金的境外汇款,这就不会引起风控。但是我必须说,我不是在鼓励大家逃税!\n\n但是这种方法不适合资金体量比较大的人操作,因为很难通过多个5万美金的蚂蚁搬家把钱汇出去。大部分人还是会选择地下钱庄来换钱,这又叫“对敲”。也就是你在中国往钱庄的中国境内账户打一笔钱,同时钱庄往你的境外账户打一笔等值的美金。都必须是即时到账,降低风险。大家都看到到账后,再马上打下一笔。这样敲几次,就把钱换走了。对敲被认为是最保险的,因为如果不是即时到账,谁都担心被骗。再说一遍,我不是在鼓励大家非法换汇。\n\n对敲一般只能用港卡,因为香港和中国一样,可以大额资金境内转账即时到账,而且不容易触发风控;而在美国就非常困难。一是美国即使是国内大额转账也不是即时到账,二是你的美国账户短时间收到好几笔大额款项,八成账户就会被封。\n\n但是港卡一旦有大额款项,通过CRS,中国税局就会知道你在海外有资金了。所以这就是为什么大部分有钱人走资以后,都会被CRS查到并要求补税。就是因为他们不得不用港卡走资。即使不用港卡,所有能满足对敲需求的地区都在CRS网络里面。\n\n今天我讲的是普通有钱人遇到的问题,明天我来讲一讲中国税局是如何对付企业家的。顶豪们早就在税局重点关注的名单上了,但同时也早就请律师和会计做好了各种架构,身份也移民了,早已不是中国税务居民,钱也不是通过地下钱庄,而是通过外资股东分红和一层层壳公司,用各种复杂的商业操作换走的,非常难被穿透。但是现在中国税局也进化出了一套方法,让这些人的海外收入缴税。明天再讲其中的门道。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981387300069134635","view_count":179390,"bookmark_count":1407,"created_at":1761234519000,"favorite_count":1113,"quote_count":5,"reply_count":40,"retweet_count":258,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1981387300069134635","full_text":"我最近找德勤做了点业务,终于搞清楚了CRS的原理,也终于明白了为什么美国明明不在CRS里面,但有些人用美国券商(如IBKR)还是会被追税。顺便也说一下地下钱庄换汇和税务的风险,以及中国人用美国银行卡+美资券商的相关问题。这绝对是全网相关议题最详细和深入的讨论!\n\nCRS是看不到你的交易明细的,只会看到你在CRS辖区内账户在几个时间点的资金额。当你的资金体量比较大的时候,你就可能被盯上。目前是各地税局分别负责,全国没有统一标准,但是金额门槛正在下沉。去年还只是查千万美金级别的户主,今年甚至有几十万美金的户主也中招。\n\n假如你有一张港卡,被CRS交换了,金额又达到了某个标准,那么税局就有可能会盯上你。这时候税局不是直接按照他们掌握的信息来收税,而是会要求你主动申报,要你把海外所有账户的银行流水、券商交易记录交出来,一般是看近3年的(有的甚至会要求看6年,但是你可以找会计和他们argue,有专业人士介入会好很多)。虽然税局本身看不到你的交易明细和流水,更看不到你美资券商的买卖记录,但问题是你敢不敢隐瞒呢?你要不要冒着犯罪的风险去造假流水呢?很多人不敢。这也是为什么很多人用美资券商还是会被收税。\n\n如果你是美国银行账户+美国券商,原则上不可能被CRS侦测到,中国税局也不会知道你在外国有账户,更不会找你索要信息。但在实操过程中,这样也存在很多问题。比如,中国人如何把大额资金弄到美国?大部分人的大额资金出境都要通过香港账户,因为香港是全世界对出入金监管最宽松的地方之一。\n\n美国对洗钱防范得特别严格。联邦法律规定一万美金以上的流动就要自动进入系统以备检查。所以出入金特别困难。如果外国人的账户长期有不同的外国人汇钱进来,很可能就会被封户。人在美国的外国人的账户会好很多,系统会备注你的信息,所以留学生收到国内很多汇款也一般不会出现问题。\n\n但是只要你人在美国半年以上,这就包括了所有留学生和在美工作的中国人,你的投资收益是要按照美国人的标准去交美国税的,这个税比中国的税还重。而且逃税的惩罚非常非常严重,美国税局IRS比中国要严厉很多。\n\n那能不能把钱汇给正在美国留学的孩子,然后再转去中国父母的美资券商账户呢?这样既不会被美国银行风控封户,也逃过了被CRS和中国税局的追踪,也不用交美国的税。答案是很难操作。因为法律规定,外国人在美国开的券商账户只接受同名账户的转账。当然你还是可以让子女再把钱一次性打到你的美国银行账户,再转入券商。因为是在美国国内亲属一次性打款的,不是很多个5万美金的境外汇款,这就不会引起风控。但是我必须说,我不是在鼓励大家逃税!\n\n但是这种方法不适合资金体量比较大的人操作,因为很难通过多个5万美金的蚂蚁搬家把钱汇出去。大部分人还是会选择地下钱庄来换钱,这又叫“对敲”。也就是你在中国往钱庄的中国境内账户打一笔钱,同时钱庄往你的境外账户打一笔等值的美金。都必须是即时到账,降低风险。大家都看到到账后,再马上打下一笔。这样敲几次,就把钱换走了。对敲被认为是最保险的,因为如果不是即时到账,谁都担心被骗。再说一遍,我不是在鼓励大家非法换汇。\n\n对敲一般只能用港卡,因为香港和中国一样,可以大额资金境内转账即时到账,而且不容易触发风控;而在美国就非常困难。一是美国即使是国内大额转账也不是即时到账,二是你的美国账户短时间收到好几笔大额款项,八成账户就会被封。\n\n但是港卡一旦有大额款项,通过CRS,中国税局就会知道你在海外有资金了。所以这就是为什么大部分有钱人走资以后,都会被CRS查到并要求补税。就是因为他们不得不用港卡走资。即使不用港卡,所有能满足对敲需求的地区都在CRS网络里面。\n\n今天我讲的是普通有钱人遇到的问题,明天我来讲一讲中国税局是如何对付企业家的。顶豪们早就在税局重点关注的名单上了,但同时也早就请律师和会计做好了各种架构,身份也移民了,早已不是中国税务居民,钱也不是通过地下钱庄,而是通过外资股东分红和一层层壳公司,用各种复杂的商业操作换走的,非常难被穿透。但是现在中国税局也进化出了一套方法,让这些人的海外收入缴税。明天再讲其中的门道。为什么你移民到了国外,依然可能会被中国税局追税?他们又是如何做到的。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,19],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":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Don’t despair; America will come back and so will Berkshire shares.\n\n注意,这里用的是未来时,也就是巴菲特预计未来股价会大幅波动,而且会下跌50%。\n\n结合巴菲特在早前的股东大会说,他不希望预测时间,但他觉得重大的投资机会会在5年内出现;以及他说,没有人愿意持有正在奔向地狱的货币。我还在消化这里面的信息。之后再和大家细聊。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,105],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988253398010036397","view_count":46697,"bookmark_count":111,"created_at":1762871524000,"favorite_count":210,"quote_count":6,"reply_count":20,"retweet_count":29,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988253398010036397","full_text":"巴菲特给股东写了一封长信,并宣称之后会安静下来,和股东沟通的任务交给新CEO。他几乎没有评价现在的市场。但却单独起了一段只讲了一句话:我们的股价将会大幅波动,偶尔会下跌大约 50%,在现任管理层执掌公司的 60 年里,这种情况已经发生过三次。不要灰心,美国会再度振作,伯克希尔的股价也会随之回升。\n\n巴菲特的这封长信主要是在回顾人生,初看非常励志、非常暖心。但当我看到那句话时,我惊出一身冷汗。这仿佛是在大灾难之前给人们做好心理建设。\n\nOur stock price will move capriciously, occasionally falling 50% or so as has happened three times in 60 years under present management. Don’t despair; America will come back and so will Berkshire shares.\n\n注意,这里用的是未来时,也就是巴菲特预计未来股价会大幅波动,而且会下跌50%。\n\n巴菲特几十年来撰写的所有的股东信我都读过,他这些年的每一个年会和采访我都看过。巴菲特说话从来都很含蓄,从来不会完全说破。对于不熟悉他风格的人,乍听一下,他说的每一句话都没有什么深意。比如上面那句话,任何时候、任何公司的股价都可能大幅波动甚至腰斩,尤其是在一个很长的时间线上。但是当你听他说话多了以后,就会发现他有个习惯,每说一句话都要停下来想一想,每一句话都不是随口乱说的。他非常讲究在什么时间说什么话。比如在早前的几次股灾中,他会说要注意估值风险。这句话看似也是没有什么意义。投资什么时候不应该关心估值风险呢?但巴菲特只会在他觉得市场泡沫的时候这样说。在他要大举出手买货的时候,他会说宁愿花不便宜的价钱买好公司。\n\n巴菲特之所以是股神,并不是他能押中最赚钱的股票,而是他践行了他的名言:只有当潮水退去时,才知道谁在裸泳。\n\n结合巴菲特在早前的股东大会上的说法,他不希望预测时间,但他觉得重大的投资机会会在5年内出现;以及他说,没有人愿意持有正在奔向地狱的货币。我还在消化这里面的信息。之后再和大家细聊。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[9,93],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"945607507510038528","name":"Pathfinder","screen_name":"Pathusa","indices":[0,8]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Pathusa","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988242829651608061","view_count":1979,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1762869005000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1987933646767136949","full_text":"@Pathusa Circle有两个致命问题。盈利高度依赖国债收益率,跟coinbase签订了无法解约的卖身契。Circle除非找到新的增长点,才有大爆发的潜力。现在这个价位还不够安全。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"945607507510038528","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987933646767136949","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-13","value":0,"startTime":1762905600000,"endTime":1762992000000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-14","value":20,"startTime":1762992000000,"endTime":1763078400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,140],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988986827848798543","view_count":33,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763046388000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988986827848798543","full_text":"巴菲特曾经赞扬过中国对加密行业的管制。其实中国政府做得非常差,漏洞到处都是。我认为支付宝和微信出入金加密货币,应该立刻封号。这已经成为电信诈骗利用的漏洞。目前英美的汇丰银行、摩根大通才真正走在了风控的前列,基本上离岸账户(非开户行所在地居民的账号)在加密货币出入金就会被终身封户。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,143],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988993507542069645","view_count":26,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763047980000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988993507542069645","full_text":"中国应效法美国,向境外汇款超过1万美金,必须合规审查,没有备案的加密货币交易,或境外账户的买卖,终身封户(美国叫做debank)。境内用户也必须要在交易所报备个人社会信用信息才能交易。中国的国际汇款和加密货币出入金既没和个人征信绑定,违规也不封卡、封微信,政府不作为,电诈才有可乘之机!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1988893869212139873","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/J7x0x5DgHO","expanded":"https://twitter.com/ipaulcanada/status/1988893869212139873","display":"x.com/ipaulcanada/st…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989012531592196460","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763052516000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989012531592196460","full_text":"做空的前提是赚钱而不是赌气。21年卖房买美股,25年再低价买回来,然后超低利息贷给银行,套钱出来买黄金。生娃生三个,每胎拿补贴。黄金不变现,加上银行贷款是负债,千万富翁白嫖低保。银行要完成社融数据,心甘情愿被你薅羊毛。这才是在中国生活的最高境界。那些不生孩子,不买房的,都在给你打工。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1988893869212139873","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/J7x0x5DgHO","expanded":"https://twitter.com/ipaulcanada/status/1988893869212139873","display":"x.com/ipaulcanada/st…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989012279996871062","view_count":43,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763052456000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989012279996871062","full_text":"做空的前提是赚钱而不是赌气。21年卖房买美股,25年再低价买回来,然后超低利息贷给银行,套钱出来买黄金。生娃生三个,每胎拿补贴。黄金不变现,加上银行贷款是负债,千万富翁白嫖低保。银行要完成社融数据,心甘情愿被你薅羊毛。这才是在中国生活的最高境界。那些不生孩子,不买房,都是在给你打工。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,140],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989015555748294766","view_count":42911,"bookmark_count":60,"created_at":1763053237000,"favorite_count":238,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":16,"retweet_count":21,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989015555748294766","full_text":"大家记得,牛市让你赚小钱,熊市才让你发大财。牛市中大家都在赚钱,你只能保证不掉队,或者缓慢爬坡。熊市里大家都不赚钱,但你把握住了机会,就会一举跨越阶级。所以强者永远不抱怨这里经济不好,也不羡慕那里大环境更好。顶级投资者,包括股神巴菲特,往往在牛市里表现平平,但熊市一来,一飞冲天。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1820104162715246592","name":"malaimo","screen_name":"0rain4fall","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"0rain4fall","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989017760803008630","view_count":8303,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1763053762000,"favorite_count":18,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988930609809695067","full_text":"@0rain4fall 叶文洁是自己按的。首先叶文洁有那个本事,才有资格去按那个按钮。你若不是叶文洁,就忍着吧。即使你是,按了以后也要再等400年。人生像油条,要想成熟先煎熬。而且话说回来。有的人真可悲,绝望的时候宁可选择毁灭,也不去信靠能带来救赎的耶稣基督。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1820104162715246592","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1988930609809695067","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-15","value":13,"startTime":1763078400000,"endTime":1763164800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,14],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1985737463823011847","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/xiBsvWdxPC","expanded":"https://twitter.com/realtaoray/status/1985737463823011847","display":"x.com/realtaoray/sta…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989127805507105041","view_count":683,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763079999000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989127805507105041","full_text":"我这个空单的含金量还在上升!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,84],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989134466900808016","view_count":33951,"bookmark_count":19,"created_at":1763081587000,"favorite_count":57,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":13,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989134466900808016","full_text":"何同学进军英文油管。大有成为华人第一YouTuber的驾驶。短短几个视频,已经超越百万订阅,单个视频播放量也在百万上下。我觉得他的视频是挺有意思,比飓风影音好看太多了。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,47],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989183690363249058","view_count":128,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763093323000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989183690363249058","full_text":"大空头Michael Burry的例子告诉我们:所谓的人生发财靠康波,其实是,坑你一波又一波。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,61],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"realTaoRay","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989125269731655997","view_count":1677,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763079395000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989015555748294766","full_text":"我说的不是美股,美股还在牛市里,虽然要居安思危。我说的是中国。我看到网上很多绝望的声音,甚至有人说要叶文洁按电钮之类的话。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989015555748294766","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-16","value":0,"startTime":1763164800000,"endTime":1763251200000,"tweets":[]}],"nbookmarks":[{"label":"2025-10-17","value":0,"startTime":1760572800000,"endTime":1760659200000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-18","value":0,"startTime":1760659200000,"endTime":1760745600000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-19","value":255,"startTime":1760745600000,"endTime":1760832000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979568813151850933","view_count":264,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760800958000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979568813151850933","full_text":"我非常看好西方石油。在投资之前,我曾经亲自走访过它的公司和油田,研究其财报。深入调查后,我信心满满。最近的回调给了我继续加仓的大好良机。赚钱的机会往往出现在被市场错杀的时候。我简要分享我长期看好西方石油的逻辑,为何分析师错的离谱,以及我最新的资产配置。\n\n1. 最近西方股价下杀,有两大原因。一是国际油价下跌,第二是西方石油把其化工产业卖给了巴菲特的伯克希尔。很多分析师觉得西方石油把一块非常有利润的业务舍弃了,所以引起恐慌抛售。然而这是完全不理性的。第一,西方石油拿到了九十多亿的现金,能够让其财务更健康。具体财务分析我就不细说了,然而我想强调,巴菲特作为西方石油最大的股东,怎么可能花钱做不利于西方石油的收购呢?搬起石头砸自己的脚?让自己的股份贬值吗?这显然不可能。在巴菲特完成收购后,西方石油CEO Hollub在上个礼拜说西方石油之后将会财务更加稳健,业务更加集中,增加更加迅速,计划股价在五年内翻倍。这是得到了巴菲特背书的测算。在现在的投机环境下,这是相当可观的增长。\n\n2. 巴菲特讲过投资西方石油是他对未来AI时代的布局。AI一定会导致电力需求暴增,而西方石油的天然气业务一定会迎来爆炸式增长。这也是个AI时代卖铲子的好生意。现在美国的电力已经出现严重短缺,建立新的发电厂的投资络绎不绝,电力设备公司的股价已经屡创新高,相信这股势头很快就会传导到能源公司。巴菲特也明确说明收购西方石油的化工业务也是为了能让西方石油能够有更多资金,集中全部资源发展核心能源业务,把握住未来AI时代的大趋势。这绝对是非常明智的长远战略布局。这就像一个企业家有一个稳定收租的豪宅,当市场的大机会来临时,对于企业家来说,卖掉这个豪宅给一个有钱,且只想经营被动收入的老人,拿一大笔钱去做自己擅长的大生意才是最明智的。这对于企业家和老人是真正的双赢,而且老人本身也是企业家生意的第一大股东。如果市场分析师解读为企业家放弃了优良资产那是大错特错的。所以我觉得市场完全错误评估了这场收购。\n\n3. 最近美国股市波动加大,银行坏账问题浮出水面,市场避险情绪急剧升温。未来的宏观经济并不容乐观,所以对经济放缓的担忧打击了油价。然而经济放缓的底层原因是什么呢?是债务货币化。全球债务水平已经不可持续,美国的债务利息支出都已经超过了军费,而且还在上升。最后不可避免要通过超发货币来解决债务问题。美国通胀依旧保持在高位,但是经济和就业已经放缓,不得不进入降息周期,这让货币贬值的压力进一步增大。这也是黄金作为抗击货币贬值的终极利器为何迎来历史性大涨。石油虽然会受到经济周期的影响,在经济放缓中需求减弱,但是石油具作为能源必需品和大宗商品,具有强定价权,所以长期看石油公司总是能够在不确定性中穿越宏观周期的,是典型的防御性板块,尤其是能够抵抗货币面值。我相信这也是为什么巴菲特在不看好宏观经济的情况下,却一直大举加仓西方石油和雪佛龙。\n\n这是一脉相承的,债务危机不断累积,风险资产、股市和加密货币开始宽幅震荡,黄金价格暴涨。对宏观经济的担忧首先影响了经济活力和就业,导致经济放缓,短期打击了石油需求,油价下跌。然而真正的病根,债务危机,很快会浮出水面,债务货币化和货币贬值会接踵而来,这又会长期托起油价。\n\n所以我一直在为此布局,今年下半年以来我不断减少科技股的持仓,开始配置大量的黄金、美债、以及能源和保险股(主要是西方石油、雪弗龙和联合健康)。我大概流动资产的配置是15%的美国短期债券,15%的股票,20%的美国长期国债,50%的黄金。\n\n长债和石油是相反的,短期利好,长期却承压。长债之前被压抑了很久,随着降息周期和避险情绪的增加应该会有一波上涨行情。但是随着债务货币化,名义收益率会骤降,长期波动肯定会加大,所以我并不打算长期持有,会在降息周期中择机抛售,继续增持黄金,以及在低位配置能源股。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,141],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979574646266802656","view_count":50942,"bookmark_count":212,"created_at":1760802349000,"favorite_count":261,"quote_count":3,"reply_count":29,"retweet_count":48,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979574646266802656","full_text":"我非常看好西方石油。在投资之前,我曾亲自走访过它的油田,研究其财报。最近的回调给了我继续加仓的大好良机。赚钱的机会往往出现在被市场错杀的时候。未来是AI革命与宏观经济危机并存的年代,所以投资上有很多的挑战,看了这篇文章你就会理解为何投资西方石油是巴菲特应对危机和技术革命的神来之笔。\n\n1. 最近西方股价下杀,有两大原因。一是国际油价下跌,第二是西方石油把其化工产业卖给了巴菲特的伯克希尔。很多人觉得西方石油把一块非常有利润的业务舍弃了,所以引起恐慌抛售。然而这是完全不理性的。第一,西方石油拿到了九十多亿的现金,能够让其财务更健康。具体财务分析我就不细说了,然而我想强调,巴菲特作为西方石油最大的股东,怎么可能花钱做不利于西方石油的收购呢?搬起石头砸自己的脚?让自己的股份贬值吗?这显然不可能。在巴菲特完成收购后,西方石油CEO Hollub在上个礼拜说西方石油之后将会财务更加稳健,业务更加集中,增加更加迅速,计划股价在五年内翻倍。这是得到了巴菲特背书的测算。在现在的投机环境下,这是相当可观的增长。\n\n2. 巴菲特讲过投资西方石油是他对未来AI时代的布局。AI一定会导致电力需求暴增,而西方石油的天然气业务一定会迎来爆炸式增长。这也是个AI时代卖铲子的好生意。现在美国的电力已经出现严重短缺,建立新的发电厂的投资络绎不绝,电力设备公司的股价已经屡创新高,相信这股势头很快就会传导到能源公司。巴菲特也明确说明收购西方石油的化工业务也是为了能让西方石油能够有更多资金,集中全部资源发展核心能源业务,把握住这个未来的大趋势。这绝对是非常明智的长远战略布局。这就像一个企业家有一个稳定收租的豪宅,当市场机会来临时,对于企业家来说,卖掉这个豪宅给一个有钱,且只想经营被动收入的老人,拿一大笔钱去做自己擅长的大生意才是最明智的。这对于企业家和老人是真正的双赢,而且老人本身也是企业家生意的第一大股东。如果市场解读为企业家放弃了优良资产那是大错特错的。所以我觉得市场完全错误估计了这场收购。\n\n3. 最近美国股市波动加大,银行坏账问题浮出水面,市场避险情绪急剧升温。未来的宏观经济并不容乐观,所以对经济放缓的担忧打击了油价。然而经济放缓的底层原因是什么呢?是债务货币化。全球债务水平已经不可持续,美国的债务利息支出都已经超过了军费,而且还在上升。最后不可避免要通过超发货币来解决债务问题。美国通胀依旧保持在高位,但是经济和就业已经放缓,不得不进入降息周期,这让货币贬值的压力进一步增大。这也是黄金作为抗击货币贬值的终极利器为何迎来历史性大涨。石油虽然会受到经济周期的影响,在经济放缓中需求减弱,但是石油具作为能源必需品和大宗商品,具有强定价权,所以长期看石油公司总是能够在不确定性中穿越宏观周期的,是典型的防御性板块,尤其是能够抵抗货币面值。我相信这也是为什么巴菲特在不看好宏观经济的情况下,却一直大举加仓西方石油和雪佛龙。\n\n这是一脉相承的,债务危机不断累积,风险资产、股市和加密货币开始宽幅震荡,黄金价格暴涨。对宏观经济的担忧导致经济放缓,短期打击了石油需求,导致油价下跌。然而真正的债务危机很快会浮出水面,债务货币化和货币贬值又会长期托起油价。\n\n所以我一直在为此布局,今年下半年以来我不断减少科技股的持仓,开始配置大量的黄金、美债、以及能源和保险股(主要是西方石油、雪弗龙和联合健康)。我大概流动资产的配置是15%的美国短期债券,15%的股票,20%的美国长期国债,50%的黄金。\n\n长债和石油是相反的,短期利好,长期承压。长债之前被压抑了很久,随着降息周期和避险情绪的增加应该会有一波上涨行情。但是随着债务货币化,名义收益率会骤降,长期波动肯定会加大,所以我并不打算长期持有,会在降息周期中择机抛售,继续增持黄金,以及在低位配置能源股。\n\n最后我还想再说说巴菲特。很多人说巴菲特投资西方石油亏损了,因为他买了以后股价下跌了很多。其实巴菲特并没有亏,因为他除了购买了大量的普通股(这部分确实亏损了),但是他同时也购买了很多优先股。这部分的股价是不变的,而且每年还会给巴菲特8%的股息分红。这样一中和,巴菲特一点都不亏。这也非常符合巴菲特的投资性格,不渴求买到股价的最底部,只要有足够的安全边际就会毫不犹豫的下场。巴菲特可以说是对西方石油的信心与日俱增,不然也不会又花90多亿让其可以扩大能源项目的布局。然而我们买不到优先股,所以如果在巴菲特买股票的时候,也马上跟着买,持仓成本会比巴菲特高很多。所以我之前一直不买西方石油,只有在股价回调时大举进入。很多人说抄巴菲特作业亏本了,其实是不会抄罢了。抄作业也有技巧。我们必须把巴菲特的持仓成本做好换算后再抄作业。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979586375763771425","view_count":19045,"bookmark_count":40,"created_at":1760805145000,"favorite_count":82,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":12,"retweet_count":11,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979586375763771425","full_text":"今晚讲黄金和加密货币!过些日子讲债券配置:短债和货币基金有什么区别?TLT和直债如何选择?以及4大银行如何选择?(摩根大通、美国银行、摩根士丹利、汇丰)普通业务怎么选?外汇业务怎么选?投资业务怎么选?私人银行业务怎么选?中国、香港、新加坡、美国、瑞士怎么选?怎样全球资产配置可以如虎添翼?","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[33,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1674011365340778496","name":"G L","screen_name":"GL7525638026680","indices":[0,16]},{"id_str":"1161248776880832512","name":"David_Z","screen_name":"DavidZ11966088","indices":[17,32]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"GL7525638026680","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979577309876326683","view_count":6694,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1760802984000,"favorite_count":21,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1958544604820889790","full_text":"@GL7525638026680 @DavidZ11966088 短期震荡不可预测,长期必将一飞冲天。当年比特币的增长是什么水平,黄金就会怎么涨。比特币只号称是数字黄金,当债务货币化真正到来的时候,真正的黄金会一路高歌猛进。全球债务已经达到了史无前例的水平,黄金也会有史无前例的增长。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1674011365340778496","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1979572292418994602","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[16,38],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1161248776880832512","name":"David_Z","screen_name":"DavidZ11966088","indices":[0,15]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"DavidZ11966088","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979568994773553522","view_count":6088,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760801001000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1958544604820889790","full_text":"@DavidZ11966088 我刚刚为此写了一篇文章,你可以在我主页上看。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1161248776880832512","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1979319933113930001","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-20","value":0,"startTime":1760832000000,"endTime":1760918400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,116],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979845314447389073","view_count":67,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760866881000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979845314447389073","full_text":"杨振宁的科学成就是毋庸置疑的。至于他的人品和为人,我不认识他,所以完全无感,无所谓好坏。但是我感觉网上骂他的人,一大部分是因为羡慕嫉妒恨。他们要是有能力和统战价值,未必不去捞名捞利,未必不想找个年轻老婆,可惜他们没有这个能力和价值。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,77],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"2561532174","name":"Zhaonuo","screen_name":"gaoxiaoccp","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"gaoxiaoccp","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979765095661236226","view_count":1,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760847755000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979574646266802656","full_text":"@gaoxiaoccp 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中国文化中没有privacy和secrecy的区别。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1457238121679302657","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980118861254164694","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-22","value":4,"startTime":1761004800000,"endTime":1761091200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,141],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1980431376957513846","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/XAk9M456ZA","expanded":"https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1980431376957513846","display":"x.com/zerohedge/stat…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980471352504246759","view_count":3968,"bookmark_count":4,"created_at":1761016140000,"favorite_count":14,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980471352504246759","full_text":"1/3的美国人信用卡债务已经超过存款。这不仅仅是美国的问题,全世界都是如此。中国的隐性债更是大到难以估计。个人负债、国家负债、资不抵债成为全球经济的主旋律,美国作为火车头也深陷泥潭。自从有人类以来,全球债务水平没有这么高过。债务货币化不可避免,货币贬值板上钉钉,中长期黄金想跌都难。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-23","value":31,"startTime":1761091200000,"endTime":1761177600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,143],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980804450601357737","view_count":862,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761095557000,"favorite_count":7,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980804450601357737","full_text":"黄金暴跌?!简直就是笑话!相比黄金一直的大涨,这只能算是一个小小的波动。就算昨天跌完,单单最近一个月还是暴涨了10%。算上今年年初到现在,黄金涨过了我手上所有的股票,英伟达、标普、科技ETF、能源股。回调是加仓的好机会。牛市里千金难买牛回头,熊市里到处都是死猫条。黄金上涨的逻辑没改变。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,143],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980870679852650765","view_count":33429,"bookmark_count":30,"created_at":1761111347000,"favorite_count":199,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":23,"retweet_count":12,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980870679852650765","full_text":"黄金暴跌?!简直就是笑话!相比黄金一直的大涨,这只能算是一个小小的波动。就算昨天跌完,单单最近一个月还是暴涨了10%。算上今年年初到现在,黄金涨过了我手上所有的股票,英伟达、标普、科技ETF、能源股。回调是加仓的好机会。牛市里千金难买牛回头,熊市里到处都是死猫条。黄金上涨的逻辑没改变。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,63],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1366565625401909249","name":"Wall 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把白宫里面装修成金色是不够的,应该把外墙都贴上24k金,从此改名叫金宫。这才是留名青史的大功绩。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1366565625401909249","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981011584832204920","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-24","value":1479,"startTime":1761177600000,"endTime":1761264000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981386135763898725","view_count":2,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761234241000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1981386135763898725","full_text":"我前些天和德勤的一个中国区合伙人聊天,终于搞清楚了CRS的原理,也终于明白为什么美国明明不在CRS系统里面,但有些人用美国券商(如IBKR)还是会被追税。我今天就来讲一讲。顺便也说一下地下钱庄换汇和税务的风险,以及中国税务居民用美国银行卡+美资券商的相关问题。\n\nCRS是看不到你的交易明细的,只会看到你在CRS辖区内账户在几个时间点的资金额。当你的资金体量比较大的时候,你就可能被盯上。目前是各地税局分别负责,全国没有统一标准,但是金额门槛正在下沉。去年还只是查千万美金级别的户主,今年甚至有几十万美金的户主也中招。\n\n假如你有一张港卡,被CRS交换了,金额又达到了某个标准,那么税局就有可能会盯上你。这时候税局不是直接按照他们掌握的信息来收税,而是会要求你主动申报,要你把海外所有账户的银行流水、券商交易记录交出来,一般是看近3年的(有的甚至会要求看6年,但是你可以找会计和他们argue,有专业人士介入会好很多)。虽然税局本身看不到你的交易明细和流水,更看不到你美资券商的买卖记录,但问题是你敢不敢隐瞒呢?你要不要冒着犯罪的风险去造假流水呢?很多人不敢。这也是为什么很多人用美资券商还是会被收税。\n\n如果你是美国银行账户+美国券商,原则上不可能被CRS侦测到,中国税局也不会知道你在外国有账户,更不会找你索要信息。但在实操过程中,这样也存在很多问题。比如,中国人如何把大额资金弄到美国?大部分人的大额资金出境都要通过香港账户,因为香港是全世界对出入金监管最宽松的地方之一。\n\n美国对洗钱防范得特别严格。联邦法律规定一万美金以上的流动就要自动进入系统以备检查。所以出入金特别困难。如果外国人的账户长期有不同的外国人汇钱进来,很可能就会被封户。人在美国的外国人的账户会好很多,系统会备注你的信息,所以留学生收到国内很多汇款也一般不会出现问题。\n\n但是只要你人在美国半年以上,这就包括了所有留学生和在美工作的中国人,你的投资收益是要按照美国人的标准去交美国税的,这个税比中国的税还重。而且逃税的惩罚非常非常严重,美国税局IRS比中国要严厉很多。\n\n那能不能把钱汇给正在美国留学的孩子,然后再转去中国父母的美资券商账户呢?这样既不会被美国银行风控封户,也逃过了被CRS和中国税局的追踪,也不用交美国的税。答案是很难操作。因为法律规定,外国人在美国开的券商账户只接受同名账户的转账。当然你还是可以让子女再把钱一次性打到你的美国银行账户,再转入券商。因为是在美国国内亲属一次性打款的,不是很多个5万美金的境外汇款,这就不会引起风控。但是我必须说,我不是在鼓励大家逃税!\n\n但是这种方法不适合资金体量比较大的人操作,因为很难通过多个5万美金的蚂蚁搬家把钱汇出去。大部分人还是会选择地下钱庄来换钱,这又叫“对敲”。也就是你在中国往钱庄的中国境内账户打一笔钱,同时钱庄往你的境外账户打一笔等值的美金。都必须是即时到账,降低风险。大家都看到到账后,再马上打下一笔。这样敲几次,就把钱换走了。对敲被认为是最保险的,因为如果不是即时到账,谁都担心被骗。再说一遍,我不是在鼓励大家非法换汇。\n\n对敲一般只能用港卡,因为香港和中国一样,可以大额资金境内转账即时到账,而且不容易触发风控;而在美国就非常困难。一是美国即使是国内大额转账也不是即时到账,二是你的美国账户短时间收到好几笔大额款项,八成账户就会被封。\n\n但是港卡一旦有大额款项,通过CRS,中国税局就会知道你在海外有资金了。所以这就是为什么大部分有钱人走资以后,都会被CRS查到并要求补税。就是因为他们不得不用港卡走资。即使不用港卡,所有能满足对敲需求的地区都在CRS网络里面。\n\n今天我讲的是普通有钱人遇到的问题,明天我来讲一讲中国税局是如何对付企业家的。顶豪们早就在税局重点关注的名单上了,但同时也早就请律师和会计做好了各种架构,身份也移民了,早已不是中国税务居民,钱也不是通过地下钱庄,而是通过外资股东分红和一层层壳公司,用各种复杂的商业操作换走的,非常难被穿透。但是现在中国税局也进化出了一套方法,让这些人的海外收入缴税。明天再讲其中的门道。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981387300069134635","view_count":179390,"bookmark_count":1407,"created_at":1761234519000,"favorite_count":1113,"quote_count":5,"reply_count":40,"retweet_count":258,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1981387300069134635","full_text":"我最近找德勤做了点业务,终于搞清楚了CRS的原理,也终于明白了为什么美国明明不在CRS里面,但有些人用美国券商(如IBKR)还是会被追税。顺便也说一下地下钱庄换汇和税务的风险,以及中国人用美国银行卡+美资券商的相关问题。这绝对是全网相关议题最详细和深入的讨论!\n\nCRS是看不到你的交易明细的,只会看到你在CRS辖区内账户在几个时间点的资金额。当你的资金体量比较大的时候,你就可能被盯上。目前是各地税局分别负责,全国没有统一标准,但是金额门槛正在下沉。去年还只是查千万美金级别的户主,今年甚至有几十万美金的户主也中招。\n\n假如你有一张港卡,被CRS交换了,金额又达到了某个标准,那么税局就有可能会盯上你。这时候税局不是直接按照他们掌握的信息来收税,而是会要求你主动申报,要你把海外所有账户的银行流水、券商交易记录交出来,一般是看近3年的(有的甚至会要求看6年,但是你可以找会计和他们argue,有专业人士介入会好很多)。虽然税局本身看不到你的交易明细和流水,更看不到你美资券商的买卖记录,但问题是你敢不敢隐瞒呢?你要不要冒着犯罪的风险去造假流水呢?很多人不敢。这也是为什么很多人用美资券商还是会被收税。\n\n如果你是美国银行账户+美国券商,原则上不可能被CRS侦测到,中国税局也不会知道你在外国有账户,更不会找你索要信息。但在实操过程中,这样也存在很多问题。比如,中国人如何把大额资金弄到美国?大部分人的大额资金出境都要通过香港账户,因为香港是全世界对出入金监管最宽松的地方之一。\n\n美国对洗钱防范得特别严格。联邦法律规定一万美金以上的流动就要自动进入系统以备检查。所以出入金特别困难。如果外国人的账户长期有不同的外国人汇钱进来,很可能就会被封户。人在美国的外国人的账户会好很多,系统会备注你的信息,所以留学生收到国内很多汇款也一般不会出现问题。\n\n但是只要你人在美国半年以上,这就包括了所有留学生和在美工作的中国人,你的投资收益是要按照美国人的标准去交美国税的,这个税比中国的税还重。而且逃税的惩罚非常非常严重,美国税局IRS比中国要严厉很多。\n\n那能不能把钱汇给正在美国留学的孩子,然后再转去中国父母的美资券商账户呢?这样既不会被美国银行风控封户,也逃过了被CRS和中国税局的追踪,也不用交美国的税。答案是很难操作。因为法律规定,外国人在美国开的券商账户只接受同名账户的转账。当然你还是可以让子女再把钱一次性打到你的美国银行账户,再转入券商。因为是在美国国内亲属一次性打款的,不是很多个5万美金的境外汇款,这就不会引起风控。但是我必须说,我不是在鼓励大家逃税!\n\n但是这种方法不适合资金体量比较大的人操作,因为很难通过多个5万美金的蚂蚁搬家把钱汇出去。大部分人还是会选择地下钱庄来换钱,这又叫“对敲”。也就是你在中国往钱庄的中国境内账户打一笔钱,同时钱庄往你的境外账户打一笔等值的美金。都必须是即时到账,降低风险。大家都看到到账后,再马上打下一笔。这样敲几次,就把钱换走了。对敲被认为是最保险的,因为如果不是即时到账,谁都担心被骗。再说一遍,我不是在鼓励大家非法换汇。\n\n对敲一般只能用港卡,因为香港和中国一样,可以大额资金境内转账即时到账,而且不容易触发风控;而在美国就非常困难。一是美国即使是国内大额转账也不是即时到账,二是你的美国账户短时间收到好几笔大额款项,八成账户就会被封。\n\n但是港卡一旦有大额款项,通过CRS,中国税局就会知道你在海外有资金了。所以这就是为什么大部分有钱人走资以后,都会被CRS查到并要求补税。就是因为他们不得不用港卡走资。即使不用港卡,所有能满足对敲需求的地区都在CRS网络里面。\n\n今天我讲的是普通有钱人遇到的问题,明天我来讲一讲中国税局是如何对付企业家的。顶豪们早就在税局重点关注的名单上了,但同时也早就请律师和会计做好了各种架构,身份也移民了,早已不是中国税务居民,钱也不是通过地下钱庄,而是通过外资股东分红和一层层壳公司,用各种复杂的商业操作换走的,非常难被穿透。但是现在中国税局也进化出了一套方法,让这些人的海外收入缴税。明天再讲其中的门道。为什么你移民到了国外,依然可能会被中国税局追税?他们又是如何做到的。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,19],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps"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Don’t despair; America will come back and so will Berkshire shares.\n\n注意,这里用的是未来时,也就是巴菲特预计未来股价会大幅波动,而且会下跌50%。\n\n结合巴菲特在早前的股东大会说,他不希望预测时间,但他觉得重大的投资机会会在5年内出现;以及他说,没有人愿意持有正在奔向地狱的货币。我还在消化这里面的信息。之后再和大家细聊。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,105],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988253398010036397","view_count":46697,"bookmark_count":111,"created_at":1762871524000,"favorite_count":210,"quote_count":6,"reply_count":20,"retweet_count":29,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988253398010036397","full_text":"巴菲特给股东写了一封长信,并宣称之后会安静下来,和股东沟通的任务交给新CEO。他几乎没有评价现在的市场。但却单独起了一段只讲了一句话:我们的股价将会大幅波动,偶尔会下跌大约 50%,在现任管理层执掌公司的 60 年里,这种情况已经发生过三次。不要灰心,美国会再度振作,伯克希尔的股价也会随之回升。\n\n巴菲特的这封长信主要是在回顾人生,初看非常励志、非常暖心。但当我看到那句话时,我惊出一身冷汗。这仿佛是在大灾难之前给人们做好心理建设。\n\nOur stock price will move capriciously, occasionally falling 50% or so as has happened three times in 60 years under present management. Don’t despair; America will come back and so will Berkshire shares.\n\n注意,这里用的是未来时,也就是巴菲特预计未来股价会大幅波动,而且会下跌50%。\n\n巴菲特几十年来撰写的所有的股东信我都读过,他这些年的每一个年会和采访我都看过。巴菲特说话从来都很含蓄,从来不会完全说破。对于不熟悉他风格的人,乍听一下,他说的每一句话都没有什么深意。比如上面那句话,任何时候、任何公司的股价都可能大幅波动甚至腰斩,尤其是在一个很长的时间线上。但是当你听他说话多了以后,就会发现他有个习惯,每说一句话都要停下来想一想,每一句话都不是随口乱说的。他非常讲究在什么时间说什么话。比如在早前的几次股灾中,他会说要注意估值风险。这句话看似也是没有什么意义。投资什么时候不应该关心估值风险呢?但巴菲特只会在他觉得市场泡沫的时候这样说。在他要大举出手买货的时候,他会说宁愿花不便宜的价钱买好公司。\n\n巴菲特之所以是股神,并不是他能押中最赚钱的股票,而是他践行了他的名言:只有当潮水退去时,才知道谁在裸泳。\n\n结合巴菲特在早前的股东大会上的说法,他不希望预测时间,但他觉得重大的投资机会会在5年内出现;以及他说,没有人愿意持有正在奔向地狱的货币。我还在消化这里面的信息。之后再和大家细聊。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[9,93],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"945607507510038528","name":"Pathfinder","screen_name":"Pathusa","indices":[0,8]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Pathusa","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988242829651608061","view_count":1979,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1762869005000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1987933646767136949","full_text":"@Pathusa Circle有两个致命问题。盈利高度依赖国债收益率,跟coinbase签订了无法解约的卖身契。Circle除非找到新的增长点,才有大爆发的潜力。现在这个价位还不够安全。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"945607507510038528","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987933646767136949","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-13","value":0,"startTime":1762905600000,"endTime":1762992000000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-14","value":62,"startTime":1762992000000,"endTime":1763078400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,140],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988986827848798543","view_count":33,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763046388000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988986827848798543","full_text":"巴菲特曾经赞扬过中国对加密行业的管制。其实中国政府做得非常差,漏洞到处都是。我认为支付宝和微信出入金加密货币,应该立刻封号。这已经成为电信诈骗利用的漏洞。目前英美的汇丰银行、摩根大通才真正走在了风控的前列,基本上离岸账户(非开户行所在地居民的账号)在加密货币出入金就会被终身封户。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,143],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988993507542069645","view_count":26,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763047980000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988993507542069645","full_text":"中国应效法美国,向境外汇款超过1万美金,必须合规审查,没有备案的加密货币交易,或境外账户的买卖,终身封户(美国叫做debank)。境内用户也必须要在交易所报备个人社会信用信息才能交易。中国的国际汇款和加密货币出入金既没和个人征信绑定,违规也不封卡、封微信,政府不作为,电诈才有可乘之机!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1988893869212139873","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/J7x0x5DgHO","expanded":"https://twitter.com/ipaulcanada/status/1988893869212139873","display":"x.com/ipaulcanada/st…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989012531592196460","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763052516000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989012531592196460","full_text":"做空的前提是赚钱而不是赌气。21年卖房买美股,25年再低价买回来,然后超低利息贷给银行,套钱出来买黄金。生娃生三个,每胎拿补贴。黄金不变现,加上银行贷款是负债,千万富翁白嫖低保。银行要完成社融数据,心甘情愿被你薅羊毛。这才是在中国生活的最高境界。那些不生孩子,不买房的,都在给你打工。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1988893869212139873","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/J7x0x5DgHO","expanded":"https://twitter.com/ipaulcanada/status/1988893869212139873","display":"x.com/ipaulcanada/st…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989012279996871062","view_count":43,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763052456000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989012279996871062","full_text":"做空的前提是赚钱而不是赌气。21年卖房买美股,25年再低价买回来,然后超低利息贷给银行,套钱出来买黄金。生娃生三个,每胎拿补贴。黄金不变现,加上银行贷款是负债,千万富翁白嫖低保。银行要完成社融数据,心甘情愿被你薅羊毛。这才是在中国生活的最高境界。那些不生孩子,不买房,都是在给你打工。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,140],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989015555748294766","view_count":42911,"bookmark_count":60,"created_at":1763053237000,"favorite_count":238,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":16,"retweet_count":21,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989015555748294766","full_text":"大家记得,牛市让你赚小钱,熊市才让你发大财。牛市中大家都在赚钱,你只能保证不掉队,或者缓慢爬坡。熊市里大家都不赚钱,但你把握住了机会,就会一举跨越阶级。所以强者永远不抱怨这里经济不好,也不羡慕那里大环境更好。顶级投资者,包括股神巴菲特,往往在牛市里表现平平,但熊市一来,一飞冲天。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1820104162715246592","name":"malaimo","screen_name":"0rain4fall","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"0rain4fall","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989017760803008630","view_count":8303,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1763053762000,"favorite_count":18,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988930609809695067","full_text":"@0rain4fall 叶文洁是自己按的。首先叶文洁有那个本事,才有资格去按那个按钮。你若不是叶文洁,就忍着吧。即使你是,按了以后也要再等400年。人生像油条,要想成熟先煎熬。而且话说回来。有的人真可悲,绝望的时候宁可选择毁灭,也不去信靠能带来救赎的耶稣基督。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1820104162715246592","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1988930609809695067","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-15","value":19,"startTime":1763078400000,"endTime":1763164800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,14],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1985737463823011847","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/xiBsvWdxPC","expanded":"https://twitter.com/realtaoray/status/1985737463823011847","display":"x.com/realtaoray/sta…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989127805507105041","view_count":683,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763079999000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989127805507105041","full_text":"我这个空单的含金量还在上升!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,84],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989134466900808016","view_count":33951,"bookmark_count":19,"created_at":1763081587000,"favorite_count":57,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":13,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989134466900808016","full_text":"何同学进军英文油管。大有成为华人第一YouTuber的驾驶。短短几个视频,已经超越百万订阅,单个视频播放量也在百万上下。我觉得他的视频是挺有意思,比飓风影音好看太多了。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,47],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989183690363249058","view_count":128,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763093323000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989183690363249058","full_text":"大空头Michael Burry的例子告诉我们:所谓的人生发财靠康波,其实是,坑你一波又一波。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,61],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"realTaoRay","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989125269731655997","view_count":1677,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763079395000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989015555748294766","full_text":"我说的不是美股,美股还在牛市里,虽然要居安思危。我说的是中国。我看到网上很多绝望的声音,甚至有人说要叶文洁按电钮之类的话。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989015555748294766","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-16","value":0,"startTime":1763164800000,"endTime":1763251200000,"tweets":[]}],"nretweets":[{"label":"2025-10-17","value":0,"startTime":1760572800000,"endTime":1760659200000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-18","value":0,"startTime":1760659200000,"endTime":1760745600000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-19","value":62,"startTime":1760745600000,"endTime":1760832000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979568813151850933","view_count":264,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760800958000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979568813151850933","full_text":"我非常看好西方石油。在投资之前,我曾经亲自走访过它的公司和油田,研究其财报。深入调查后,我信心满满。最近的回调给了我继续加仓的大好良机。赚钱的机会往往出现在被市场错杀的时候。我简要分享我长期看好西方石油的逻辑,为何分析师错的离谱,以及我最新的资产配置。\n\n1. 最近西方股价下杀,有两大原因。一是国际油价下跌,第二是西方石油把其化工产业卖给了巴菲特的伯克希尔。很多分析师觉得西方石油把一块非常有利润的业务舍弃了,所以引起恐慌抛售。然而这是完全不理性的。第一,西方石油拿到了九十多亿的现金,能够让其财务更健康。具体财务分析我就不细说了,然而我想强调,巴菲特作为西方石油最大的股东,怎么可能花钱做不利于西方石油的收购呢?搬起石头砸自己的脚?让自己的股份贬值吗?这显然不可能。在巴菲特完成收购后,西方石油CEO Hollub在上个礼拜说西方石油之后将会财务更加稳健,业务更加集中,增加更加迅速,计划股价在五年内翻倍。这是得到了巴菲特背书的测算。在现在的投机环境下,这是相当可观的增长。\n\n2. 巴菲特讲过投资西方石油是他对未来AI时代的布局。AI一定会导致电力需求暴增,而西方石油的天然气业务一定会迎来爆炸式增长。这也是个AI时代卖铲子的好生意。现在美国的电力已经出现严重短缺,建立新的发电厂的投资络绎不绝,电力设备公司的股价已经屡创新高,相信这股势头很快就会传导到能源公司。巴菲特也明确说明收购西方石油的化工业务也是为了能让西方石油能够有更多资金,集中全部资源发展核心能源业务,把握住未来AI时代的大趋势。这绝对是非常明智的长远战略布局。这就像一个企业家有一个稳定收租的豪宅,当市场的大机会来临时,对于企业家来说,卖掉这个豪宅给一个有钱,且只想经营被动收入的老人,拿一大笔钱去做自己擅长的大生意才是最明智的。这对于企业家和老人是真正的双赢,而且老人本身也是企业家生意的第一大股东。如果市场分析师解读为企业家放弃了优良资产那是大错特错的。所以我觉得市场完全错误评估了这场收购。\n\n3. 最近美国股市波动加大,银行坏账问题浮出水面,市场避险情绪急剧升温。未来的宏观经济并不容乐观,所以对经济放缓的担忧打击了油价。然而经济放缓的底层原因是什么呢?是债务货币化。全球债务水平已经不可持续,美国的债务利息支出都已经超过了军费,而且还在上升。最后不可避免要通过超发货币来解决债务问题。美国通胀依旧保持在高位,但是经济和就业已经放缓,不得不进入降息周期,这让货币贬值的压力进一步增大。这也是黄金作为抗击货币贬值的终极利器为何迎来历史性大涨。石油虽然会受到经济周期的影响,在经济放缓中需求减弱,但是石油具作为能源必需品和大宗商品,具有强定价权,所以长期看石油公司总是能够在不确定性中穿越宏观周期的,是典型的防御性板块,尤其是能够抵抗货币面值。我相信这也是为什么巴菲特在不看好宏观经济的情况下,却一直大举加仓西方石油和雪佛龙。\n\n这是一脉相承的,债务危机不断累积,风险资产、股市和加密货币开始宽幅震荡,黄金价格暴涨。对宏观经济的担忧首先影响了经济活力和就业,导致经济放缓,短期打击了石油需求,油价下跌。然而真正的病根,债务危机,很快会浮出水面,债务货币化和货币贬值会接踵而来,这又会长期托起油价。\n\n所以我一直在为此布局,今年下半年以来我不断减少科技股的持仓,开始配置大量的黄金、美债、以及能源和保险股(主要是西方石油、雪弗龙和联合健康)。我大概流动资产的配置是15%的美国短期债券,15%的股票,20%的美国长期国债,50%的黄金。\n\n长债和石油是相反的,短期利好,长期却承压。长债之前被压抑了很久,随着降息周期和避险情绪的增加应该会有一波上涨行情。但是随着债务货币化,名义收益率会骤降,长期波动肯定会加大,所以我并不打算长期持有,会在降息周期中择机抛售,继续增持黄金,以及在低位配置能源股。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,141],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979574646266802656","view_count":50942,"bookmark_count":212,"created_at":1760802349000,"favorite_count":261,"quote_count":3,"reply_count":29,"retweet_count":48,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979574646266802656","full_text":"我非常看好西方石油。在投资之前,我曾亲自走访过它的油田,研究其财报。最近的回调给了我继续加仓的大好良机。赚钱的机会往往出现在被市场错杀的时候。未来是AI革命与宏观经济危机并存的年代,所以投资上有很多的挑战,看了这篇文章你就会理解为何投资西方石油是巴菲特应对危机和技术革命的神来之笔。\n\n1. 最近西方股价下杀,有两大原因。一是国际油价下跌,第二是西方石油把其化工产业卖给了巴菲特的伯克希尔。很多人觉得西方石油把一块非常有利润的业务舍弃了,所以引起恐慌抛售。然而这是完全不理性的。第一,西方石油拿到了九十多亿的现金,能够让其财务更健康。具体财务分析我就不细说了,然而我想强调,巴菲特作为西方石油最大的股东,怎么可能花钱做不利于西方石油的收购呢?搬起石头砸自己的脚?让自己的股份贬值吗?这显然不可能。在巴菲特完成收购后,西方石油CEO Hollub在上个礼拜说西方石油之后将会财务更加稳健,业务更加集中,增加更加迅速,计划股价在五年内翻倍。这是得到了巴菲特背书的测算。在现在的投机环境下,这是相当可观的增长。\n\n2. 巴菲特讲过投资西方石油是他对未来AI时代的布局。AI一定会导致电力需求暴增,而西方石油的天然气业务一定会迎来爆炸式增长。这也是个AI时代卖铲子的好生意。现在美国的电力已经出现严重短缺,建立新的发电厂的投资络绎不绝,电力设备公司的股价已经屡创新高,相信这股势头很快就会传导到能源公司。巴菲特也明确说明收购西方石油的化工业务也是为了能让西方石油能够有更多资金,集中全部资源发展核心能源业务,把握住这个未来的大趋势。这绝对是非常明智的长远战略布局。这就像一个企业家有一个稳定收租的豪宅,当市场机会来临时,对于企业家来说,卖掉这个豪宅给一个有钱,且只想经营被动收入的老人,拿一大笔钱去做自己擅长的大生意才是最明智的。这对于企业家和老人是真正的双赢,而且老人本身也是企业家生意的第一大股东。如果市场解读为企业家放弃了优良资产那是大错特错的。所以我觉得市场完全错误估计了这场收购。\n\n3. 最近美国股市波动加大,银行坏账问题浮出水面,市场避险情绪急剧升温。未来的宏观经济并不容乐观,所以对经济放缓的担忧打击了油价。然而经济放缓的底层原因是什么呢?是债务货币化。全球债务水平已经不可持续,美国的债务利息支出都已经超过了军费,而且还在上升。最后不可避免要通过超发货币来解决债务问题。美国通胀依旧保持在高位,但是经济和就业已经放缓,不得不进入降息周期,这让货币贬值的压力进一步增大。这也是黄金作为抗击货币贬值的终极利器为何迎来历史性大涨。石油虽然会受到经济周期的影响,在经济放缓中需求减弱,但是石油具作为能源必需品和大宗商品,具有强定价权,所以长期看石油公司总是能够在不确定性中穿越宏观周期的,是典型的防御性板块,尤其是能够抵抗货币面值。我相信这也是为什么巴菲特在不看好宏观经济的情况下,却一直大举加仓西方石油和雪佛龙。\n\n这是一脉相承的,债务危机不断累积,风险资产、股市和加密货币开始宽幅震荡,黄金价格暴涨。对宏观经济的担忧导致经济放缓,短期打击了石油需求,导致油价下跌。然而真正的债务危机很快会浮出水面,债务货币化和货币贬值又会长期托起油价。\n\n所以我一直在为此布局,今年下半年以来我不断减少科技股的持仓,开始配置大量的黄金、美债、以及能源和保险股(主要是西方石油、雪弗龙和联合健康)。我大概流动资产的配置是15%的美国短期债券,15%的股票,20%的美国长期国债,50%的黄金。\n\n长债和石油是相反的,短期利好,长期承压。长债之前被压抑了很久,随着降息周期和避险情绪的增加应该会有一波上涨行情。但是随着债务货币化,名义收益率会骤降,长期波动肯定会加大,所以我并不打算长期持有,会在降息周期中择机抛售,继续增持黄金,以及在低位配置能源股。\n\n最后我还想再说说巴菲特。很多人说巴菲特投资西方石油亏损了,因为他买了以后股价下跌了很多。其实巴菲特并没有亏,因为他除了购买了大量的普通股(这部分确实亏损了),但是他同时也购买了很多优先股。这部分的股价是不变的,而且每年还会给巴菲特8%的股息分红。这样一中和,巴菲特一点都不亏。这也非常符合巴菲特的投资性格,不渴求买到股价的最底部,只要有足够的安全边际就会毫不犹豫的下场。巴菲特可以说是对西方石油的信心与日俱增,不然也不会又花90多亿让其可以扩大能源项目的布局。然而我们买不到优先股,所以如果在巴菲特买股票的时候,也马上跟着买,持仓成本会比巴菲特高很多。所以我之前一直不买西方石油,只有在股价回调时大举进入。很多人说抄巴菲特作业亏本了,其实是不会抄罢了。抄作业也有技巧。我们必须把巴菲特的持仓成本做好换算后再抄作业。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979586375763771425","view_count":19045,"bookmark_count":40,"created_at":1760805145000,"favorite_count":82,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":12,"retweet_count":11,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979586375763771425","full_text":"今晚讲黄金和加密货币!过些日子讲债券配置:短债和货币基金有什么区别?TLT和直债如何选择?以及4大银行如何选择?(摩根大通、美国银行、摩根士丹利、汇丰)普通业务怎么选?外汇业务怎么选?投资业务怎么选?私人银行业务怎么选?中国、香港、新加坡、美国、瑞士怎么选?怎样全球资产配置可以如虎添翼?","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[33,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1674011365340778496","name":"G L","screen_name":"GL7525638026680","indices":[0,16]},{"id_str":"1161248776880832512","name":"David_Z","screen_name":"DavidZ11966088","indices":[17,32]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"GL7525638026680","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979577309876326683","view_count":6694,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1760802984000,"favorite_count":21,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1958544604820889790","full_text":"@GL7525638026680 @DavidZ11966088 短期震荡不可预测,长期必将一飞冲天。当年比特币的增长是什么水平,黄金就会怎么涨。比特币只号称是数字黄金,当债务货币化真正到来的时候,真正的黄金会一路高歌猛进。全球债务已经达到了史无前例的水平,黄金也会有史无前例的增长。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1674011365340778496","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1979572292418994602","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[16,38],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1161248776880832512","name":"David_Z","screen_name":"DavidZ11966088","indices":[0,15]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"DavidZ11966088","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979568994773553522","view_count":6088,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760801001000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1958544604820889790","full_text":"@DavidZ11966088 我刚刚为此写了一篇文章,你可以在我主页上看。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1161248776880832512","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1979319933113930001","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-20","value":1,"startTime":1760832000000,"endTime":1760918400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,116],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979845314447389073","view_count":67,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760866881000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979845314447389073","full_text":"杨振宁的科学成就是毋庸置疑的。至于他的人品和为人,我不认识他,所以完全无感,无所谓好坏。但是我感觉网上骂他的人,一大部分是因为羡慕嫉妒恨。他们要是有能力和统战价值,未必不去捞名捞利,未必不想找个年轻老婆,可惜他们没有这个能力和价值。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,77],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"2561532174","name":"Zhaonuo","screen_name":"gaoxiaoccp","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"gaoxiaoccp","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979765095661236226","view_count":1,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760847755000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979574646266802656","full_text":"@gaoxiaoccp 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把白宫里面装修成金色是不够的,应该把外墙都贴上24k金,从此改名叫金宫。这才是留名青史的大功绩。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1366565625401909249","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981011584832204920","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-24","value":270,"startTime":1761177600000,"endTime":1761264000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981386135763898725","view_count":2,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761234241000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1981386135763898725","full_text":"我前些天和德勤的一个中国区合伙人聊天,终于搞清楚了CRS的原理,也终于明白为什么美国明明不在CRS系统里面,但有些人用美国券商(如IBKR)还是会被追税。我今天就来讲一讲。顺便也说一下地下钱庄换汇和税务的风险,以及中国税务居民用美国银行卡+美资券商的相关问题。\n\nCRS是看不到你的交易明细的,只会看到你在CRS辖区内账户在几个时间点的资金额。当你的资金体量比较大的时候,你就可能被盯上。目前是各地税局分别负责,全国没有统一标准,但是金额门槛正在下沉。去年还只是查千万美金级别的户主,今年甚至有几十万美金的户主也中招。\n\n假如你有一张港卡,被CRS交换了,金额又达到了某个标准,那么税局就有可能会盯上你。这时候税局不是直接按照他们掌握的信息来收税,而是会要求你主动申报,要你把海外所有账户的银行流水、券商交易记录交出来,一般是看近3年的(有的甚至会要求看6年,但是你可以找会计和他们argue,有专业人士介入会好很多)。虽然税局本身看不到你的交易明细和流水,更看不到你美资券商的买卖记录,但问题是你敢不敢隐瞒呢?你要不要冒着犯罪的风险去造假流水呢?很多人不敢。这也是为什么很多人用美资券商还是会被收税。\n\n如果你是美国银行账户+美国券商,原则上不可能被CRS侦测到,中国税局也不会知道你在外国有账户,更不会找你索要信息。但在实操过程中,这样也存在很多问题。比如,中国人如何把大额资金弄到美国?大部分人的大额资金出境都要通过香港账户,因为香港是全世界对出入金监管最宽松的地方之一。\n\n美国对洗钱防范得特别严格。联邦法律规定一万美金以上的流动就要自动进入系统以备检查。所以出入金特别困难。如果外国人的账户长期有不同的外国人汇钱进来,很可能就会被封户。人在美国的外国人的账户会好很多,系统会备注你的信息,所以留学生收到国内很多汇款也一般不会出现问题。\n\n但是只要你人在美国半年以上,这就包括了所有留学生和在美工作的中国人,你的投资收益是要按照美国人的标准去交美国税的,这个税比中国的税还重。而且逃税的惩罚非常非常严重,美国税局IRS比中国要严厉很多。\n\n那能不能把钱汇给正在美国留学的孩子,然后再转去中国父母的美资券商账户呢?这样既不会被美国银行风控封户,也逃过了被CRS和中国税局的追踪,也不用交美国的税。答案是很难操作。因为法律规定,外国人在美国开的券商账户只接受同名账户的转账。当然你还是可以让子女再把钱一次性打到你的美国银行账户,再转入券商。因为是在美国国内亲属一次性打款的,不是很多个5万美金的境外汇款,这就不会引起风控。但是我必须说,我不是在鼓励大家逃税!\n\n但是这种方法不适合资金体量比较大的人操作,因为很难通过多个5万美金的蚂蚁搬家把钱汇出去。大部分人还是会选择地下钱庄来换钱,这又叫“对敲”。也就是你在中国往钱庄的中国境内账户打一笔钱,同时钱庄往你的境外账户打一笔等值的美金。都必须是即时到账,降低风险。大家都看到到账后,再马上打下一笔。这样敲几次,就把钱换走了。对敲被认为是最保险的,因为如果不是即时到账,谁都担心被骗。再说一遍,我不是在鼓励大家非法换汇。\n\n对敲一般只能用港卡,因为香港和中国一样,可以大额资金境内转账即时到账,而且不容易触发风控;而在美国就非常困难。一是美国即使是国内大额转账也不是即时到账,二是你的美国账户短时间收到好几笔大额款项,八成账户就会被封。\n\n但是港卡一旦有大额款项,通过CRS,中国税局就会知道你在海外有资金了。所以这就是为什么大部分有钱人走资以后,都会被CRS查到并要求补税。就是因为他们不得不用港卡走资。即使不用港卡,所有能满足对敲需求的地区都在CRS网络里面。\n\n今天我讲的是普通有钱人遇到的问题,明天我来讲一讲中国税局是如何对付企业家的。顶豪们早就在税局重点关注的名单上了,但同时也早就请律师和会计做好了各种架构,身份也移民了,早已不是中国税务居民,钱也不是通过地下钱庄,而是通过外资股东分红和一层层壳公司,用各种复杂的商业操作换走的,非常难被穿透。但是现在中国税局也进化出了一套方法,让这些人的海外收入缴税。明天再讲其中的门道。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981387300069134635","view_count":179390,"bookmark_count":1407,"created_at":1761234519000,"favorite_count":1113,"quote_count":5,"reply_count":40,"retweet_count":258,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1981387300069134635","full_text":"我最近找德勤做了点业务,终于搞清楚了CRS的原理,也终于明白了为什么美国明明不在CRS里面,但有些人用美国券商(如IBKR)还是会被追税。顺便也说一下地下钱庄换汇和税务的风险,以及中国人用美国银行卡+美资券商的相关问题。这绝对是全网相关议题最详细和深入的讨论!\n\nCRS是看不到你的交易明细的,只会看到你在CRS辖区内账户在几个时间点的资金额。当你的资金体量比较大的时候,你就可能被盯上。目前是各地税局分别负责,全国没有统一标准,但是金额门槛正在下沉。去年还只是查千万美金级别的户主,今年甚至有几十万美金的户主也中招。\n\n假如你有一张港卡,被CRS交换了,金额又达到了某个标准,那么税局就有可能会盯上你。这时候税局不是直接按照他们掌握的信息来收税,而是会要求你主动申报,要你把海外所有账户的银行流水、券商交易记录交出来,一般是看近3年的(有的甚至会要求看6年,但是你可以找会计和他们argue,有专业人士介入会好很多)。虽然税局本身看不到你的交易明细和流水,更看不到你美资券商的买卖记录,但问题是你敢不敢隐瞒呢?你要不要冒着犯罪的风险去造假流水呢?很多人不敢。这也是为什么很多人用美资券商还是会被收税。\n\n如果你是美国银行账户+美国券商,原则上不可能被CRS侦测到,中国税局也不会知道你在外国有账户,更不会找你索要信息。但在实操过程中,这样也存在很多问题。比如,中国人如何把大额资金弄到美国?大部分人的大额资金出境都要通过香港账户,因为香港是全世界对出入金监管最宽松的地方之一。\n\n美国对洗钱防范得特别严格。联邦法律规定一万美金以上的流动就要自动进入系统以备检查。所以出入金特别困难。如果外国人的账户长期有不同的外国人汇钱进来,很可能就会被封户。人在美国的外国人的账户会好很多,系统会备注你的信息,所以留学生收到国内很多汇款也一般不会出现问题。\n\n但是只要你人在美国半年以上,这就包括了所有留学生和在美工作的中国人,你的投资收益是要按照美国人的标准去交美国税的,这个税比中国的税还重。而且逃税的惩罚非常非常严重,美国税局IRS比中国要严厉很多。\n\n那能不能把钱汇给正在美国留学的孩子,然后再转去中国父母的美资券商账户呢?这样既不会被美国银行风控封户,也逃过了被CRS和中国税局的追踪,也不用交美国的税。答案是很难操作。因为法律规定,外国人在美国开的券商账户只接受同名账户的转账。当然你还是可以让子女再把钱一次性打到你的美国银行账户,再转入券商。因为是在美国国内亲属一次性打款的,不是很多个5万美金的境外汇款,这就不会引起风控。但是我必须说,我不是在鼓励大家逃税!\n\n但是这种方法不适合资金体量比较大的人操作,因为很难通过多个5万美金的蚂蚁搬家把钱汇出去。大部分人还是会选择地下钱庄来换钱,这又叫“对敲”。也就是你在中国往钱庄的中国境内账户打一笔钱,同时钱庄往你的境外账户打一笔等值的美金。都必须是即时到账,降低风险。大家都看到到账后,再马上打下一笔。这样敲几次,就把钱换走了。对敲被认为是最保险的,因为如果不是即时到账,谁都担心被骗。再说一遍,我不是在鼓励大家非法换汇。\n\n对敲一般只能用港卡,因为香港和中国一样,可以大额资金境内转账即时到账,而且不容易触发风控;而在美国就非常困难。一是美国即使是国内大额转账也不是即时到账,二是你的美国账户短时间收到好几笔大额款项,八成账户就会被封。\n\n但是港卡一旦有大额款项,通过CRS,中国税局就会知道你在海外有资金了。所以这就是为什么大部分有钱人走资以后,都会被CRS查到并要求补税。就是因为他们不得不用港卡走资。即使不用港卡,所有能满足对敲需求的地区都在CRS网络里面。\n\n今天我讲的是普通有钱人遇到的问题,明天我来讲一讲中国税局是如何对付企业家的。顶豪们早就在税局重点关注的名单上了,但同时也早就请律师和会计做好了各种架构,身份也移民了,早已不是中国税务居民,钱也不是通过地下钱庄,而是通过外资股东分红和一层层壳公司,用各种复杂的商业操作换走的,非常难被穿透。但是现在中国税局也进化出了一套方法,让这些人的海外收入缴税。明天再讲其中的门道。为什么你移民到了国外,依然可能会被中国税局追税?他们又是如何做到的。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,19],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":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Don’t despair; America will come back and so will Berkshire shares.\n\n注意,这里用的是未来时,也就是巴菲特预计未来股价会大幅波动,而且会下跌50%。\n\n结合巴菲特在早前的股东大会说,他不希望预测时间,但他觉得重大的投资机会会在5年内出现;以及他说,没有人愿意持有正在奔向地狱的货币。我还在消化这里面的信息。之后再和大家细聊。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,105],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988253398010036397","view_count":46697,"bookmark_count":111,"created_at":1762871524000,"favorite_count":210,"quote_count":6,"reply_count":20,"retweet_count":29,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988253398010036397","full_text":"巴菲特给股东写了一封长信,并宣称之后会安静下来,和股东沟通的任务交给新CEO。他几乎没有评价现在的市场。但却单独起了一段只讲了一句话:我们的股价将会大幅波动,偶尔会下跌大约 50%,在现任管理层执掌公司的 60 年里,这种情况已经发生过三次。不要灰心,美国会再度振作,伯克希尔的股价也会随之回升。\n\n巴菲特的这封长信主要是在回顾人生,初看非常励志、非常暖心。但当我看到那句话时,我惊出一身冷汗。这仿佛是在大灾难之前给人们做好心理建设。\n\nOur stock price will move capriciously, occasionally falling 50% or so as has happened three times in 60 years under present management. Don’t despair; America will come back and so will Berkshire shares.\n\n注意,这里用的是未来时,也就是巴菲特预计未来股价会大幅波动,而且会下跌50%。\n\n巴菲特几十年来撰写的所有的股东信我都读过,他这些年的每一个年会和采访我都看过。巴菲特说话从来都很含蓄,从来不会完全说破。对于不熟悉他风格的人,乍听一下,他说的每一句话都没有什么深意。比如上面那句话,任何时候、任何公司的股价都可能大幅波动甚至腰斩,尤其是在一个很长的时间线上。但是当你听他说话多了以后,就会发现他有个习惯,每说一句话都要停下来想一想,每一句话都不是随口乱说的。他非常讲究在什么时间说什么话。比如在早前的几次股灾中,他会说要注意估值风险。这句话看似也是没有什么意义。投资什么时候不应该关心估值风险呢?但巴菲特只会在他觉得市场泡沫的时候这样说。在他要大举出手买货的时候,他会说宁愿花不便宜的价钱买好公司。\n\n巴菲特之所以是股神,并不是他能押中最赚钱的股票,而是他践行了他的名言:只有当潮水退去时,才知道谁在裸泳。\n\n结合巴菲特在早前的股东大会上的说法,他不希望预测时间,但他觉得重大的投资机会会在5年内出现;以及他说,没有人愿意持有正在奔向地狱的货币。我还在消化这里面的信息。之后再和大家细聊。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[9,93],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"945607507510038528","name":"Pathfinder","screen_name":"Pathusa","indices":[0,8]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Pathusa","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988242829651608061","view_count":1979,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1762869005000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1987933646767136949","full_text":"@Pathusa Circle有两个致命问题。盈利高度依赖国债收益率,跟coinbase签订了无法解约的卖身契。Circle除非找到新的增长点,才有大爆发的潜力。现在这个价位还不够安全。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"945607507510038528","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987933646767136949","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-13","value":0,"startTime":1762905600000,"endTime":1762992000000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-14","value":23,"startTime":1762992000000,"endTime":1763078400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,140],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988986827848798543","view_count":33,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763046388000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988986827848798543","full_text":"巴菲特曾经赞扬过中国对加密行业的管制。其实中国政府做得非常差,漏洞到处都是。我认为支付宝和微信出入金加密货币,应该立刻封号。这已经成为电信诈骗利用的漏洞。目前英美的汇丰银行、摩根大通才真正走在了风控的前列,基本上离岸账户(非开户行所在地居民的账号)在加密货币出入金就会被终身封户。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,143],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988993507542069645","view_count":26,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763047980000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988993507542069645","full_text":"中国应效法美国,向境外汇款超过1万美金,必须合规审查,没有备案的加密货币交易,或境外账户的买卖,终身封户(美国叫做debank)。境内用户也必须要在交易所报备个人社会信用信息才能交易。中国的国际汇款和加密货币出入金既没和个人征信绑定,违规也不封卡、封微信,政府不作为,电诈才有可乘之机!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1988893869212139873","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/J7x0x5DgHO","expanded":"https://twitter.com/ipaulcanada/status/1988893869212139873","display":"x.com/ipaulcanada/st…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989012531592196460","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763052516000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989012531592196460","full_text":"做空的前提是赚钱而不是赌气。21年卖房买美股,25年再低价买回来,然后超低利息贷给银行,套钱出来买黄金。生娃生三个,每胎拿补贴。黄金不变现,加上银行贷款是负债,千万富翁白嫖低保。银行要完成社融数据,心甘情愿被你薅羊毛。这才是在中国生活的最高境界。那些不生孩子,不买房的,都在给你打工。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1988893869212139873","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/J7x0x5DgHO","expanded":"https://twitter.com/ipaulcanada/status/1988893869212139873","display":"x.com/ipaulcanada/st…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989012279996871062","view_count":43,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763052456000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989012279996871062","full_text":"做空的前提是赚钱而不是赌气。21年卖房买美股,25年再低价买回来,然后超低利息贷给银行,套钱出来买黄金。生娃生三个,每胎拿补贴。黄金不变现,加上银行贷款是负债,千万富翁白嫖低保。银行要完成社融数据,心甘情愿被你薅羊毛。这才是在中国生活的最高境界。那些不生孩子,不买房,都是在给你打工。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,140],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989015555748294766","view_count":42911,"bookmark_count":60,"created_at":1763053237000,"favorite_count":238,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":16,"retweet_count":21,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989015555748294766","full_text":"大家记得,牛市让你赚小钱,熊市才让你发大财。牛市中大家都在赚钱,你只能保证不掉队,或者缓慢爬坡。熊市里大家都不赚钱,但你把握住了机会,就会一举跨越阶级。所以强者永远不抱怨这里经济不好,也不羡慕那里大环境更好。顶级投资者,包括股神巴菲特,往往在牛市里表现平平,但熊市一来,一飞冲天。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1820104162715246592","name":"malaimo","screen_name":"0rain4fall","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"0rain4fall","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989017760803008630","view_count":8303,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1763053762000,"favorite_count":18,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988930609809695067","full_text":"@0rain4fall 叶文洁是自己按的。首先叶文洁有那个本事,才有资格去按那个按钮。你若不是叶文洁,就忍着吧。即使你是,按了以后也要再等400年。人生像油条,要想成熟先煎熬。而且话说回来。有的人真可悲,绝望的时候宁可选择毁灭,也不去信靠能带来救赎的耶稣基督。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1820104162715246592","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1988930609809695067","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-15","value":3,"startTime":1763078400000,"endTime":1763164800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,14],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1985737463823011847","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/xiBsvWdxPC","expanded":"https://twitter.com/realtaoray/status/1985737463823011847","display":"x.com/realtaoray/sta…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989127805507105041","view_count":683,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763079999000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989127805507105041","full_text":"我这个空单的含金量还在上升!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,84],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989134466900808016","view_count":33951,"bookmark_count":19,"created_at":1763081587000,"favorite_count":57,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":13,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989134466900808016","full_text":"何同学进军英文油管。大有成为华人第一YouTuber的驾驶。短短几个视频,已经超越百万订阅,单个视频播放量也在百万上下。我觉得他的视频是挺有意思,比飓风影音好看太多了。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,47],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989183690363249058","view_count":128,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763093323000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989183690363249058","full_text":"大空头Michael Burry的例子告诉我们:所谓的人生发财靠康波,其实是,坑你一波又一波。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,61],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"realTaoRay","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989125269731655997","view_count":1677,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763079395000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989015555748294766","full_text":"我说的不是美股,美股还在牛市里,虽然要居安思危。我说的是中国。我看到网上很多绝望的声音,甚至有人说要叶文洁按电钮之类的话。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989015555748294766","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-16","value":0,"startTime":1763164800000,"endTime":1763251200000,"tweets":[]}],"nlikes":[{"label":"2025-10-17","value":0,"startTime":1760572800000,"endTime":1760659200000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-18","value":0,"startTime":1760659200000,"endTime":1760745600000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-19","value":367,"startTime":1760745600000,"endTime":1760832000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979568813151850933","view_count":264,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760800958000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979568813151850933","full_text":"我非常看好西方石油。在投资之前,我曾经亲自走访过它的公司和油田,研究其财报。深入调查后,我信心满满。最近的回调给了我继续加仓的大好良机。赚钱的机会往往出现在被市场错杀的时候。我简要分享我长期看好西方石油的逻辑,为何分析师错的离谱,以及我最新的资产配置。\n\n1. 最近西方股价下杀,有两大原因。一是国际油价下跌,第二是西方石油把其化工产业卖给了巴菲特的伯克希尔。很多分析师觉得西方石油把一块非常有利润的业务舍弃了,所以引起恐慌抛售。然而这是完全不理性的。第一,西方石油拿到了九十多亿的现金,能够让其财务更健康。具体财务分析我就不细说了,然而我想强调,巴菲特作为西方石油最大的股东,怎么可能花钱做不利于西方石油的收购呢?搬起石头砸自己的脚?让自己的股份贬值吗?这显然不可能。在巴菲特完成收购后,西方石油CEO Hollub在上个礼拜说西方石油之后将会财务更加稳健,业务更加集中,增加更加迅速,计划股价在五年内翻倍。这是得到了巴菲特背书的测算。在现在的投机环境下,这是相当可观的增长。\n\n2. 巴菲特讲过投资西方石油是他对未来AI时代的布局。AI一定会导致电力需求暴增,而西方石油的天然气业务一定会迎来爆炸式增长。这也是个AI时代卖铲子的好生意。现在美国的电力已经出现严重短缺,建立新的发电厂的投资络绎不绝,电力设备公司的股价已经屡创新高,相信这股势头很快就会传导到能源公司。巴菲特也明确说明收购西方石油的化工业务也是为了能让西方石油能够有更多资金,集中全部资源发展核心能源业务,把握住未来AI时代的大趋势。这绝对是非常明智的长远战略布局。这就像一个企业家有一个稳定收租的豪宅,当市场的大机会来临时,对于企业家来说,卖掉这个豪宅给一个有钱,且只想经营被动收入的老人,拿一大笔钱去做自己擅长的大生意才是最明智的。这对于企业家和老人是真正的双赢,而且老人本身也是企业家生意的第一大股东。如果市场分析师解读为企业家放弃了优良资产那是大错特错的。所以我觉得市场完全错误评估了这场收购。\n\n3. 最近美国股市波动加大,银行坏账问题浮出水面,市场避险情绪急剧升温。未来的宏观经济并不容乐观,所以对经济放缓的担忧打击了油价。然而经济放缓的底层原因是什么呢?是债务货币化。全球债务水平已经不可持续,美国的债务利息支出都已经超过了军费,而且还在上升。最后不可避免要通过超发货币来解决债务问题。美国通胀依旧保持在高位,但是经济和就业已经放缓,不得不进入降息周期,这让货币贬值的压力进一步增大。这也是黄金作为抗击货币贬值的终极利器为何迎来历史性大涨。石油虽然会受到经济周期的影响,在经济放缓中需求减弱,但是石油具作为能源必需品和大宗商品,具有强定价权,所以长期看石油公司总是能够在不确定性中穿越宏观周期的,是典型的防御性板块,尤其是能够抵抗货币面值。我相信这也是为什么巴菲特在不看好宏观经济的情况下,却一直大举加仓西方石油和雪佛龙。\n\n这是一脉相承的,债务危机不断累积,风险资产、股市和加密货币开始宽幅震荡,黄金价格暴涨。对宏观经济的担忧首先影响了经济活力和就业,导致经济放缓,短期打击了石油需求,油价下跌。然而真正的病根,债务危机,很快会浮出水面,债务货币化和货币贬值会接踵而来,这又会长期托起油价。\n\n所以我一直在为此布局,今年下半年以来我不断减少科技股的持仓,开始配置大量的黄金、美债、以及能源和保险股(主要是西方石油、雪弗龙和联合健康)。我大概流动资产的配置是15%的美国短期债券,15%的股票,20%的美国长期国债,50%的黄金。\n\n长债和石油是相反的,短期利好,长期却承压。长债之前被压抑了很久,随着降息周期和避险情绪的增加应该会有一波上涨行情。但是随着债务货币化,名义收益率会骤降,长期波动肯定会加大,所以我并不打算长期持有,会在降息周期中择机抛售,继续增持黄金,以及在低位配置能源股。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,141],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979574646266802656","view_count":50942,"bookmark_count":212,"created_at":1760802349000,"favorite_count":261,"quote_count":3,"reply_count":29,"retweet_count":48,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979574646266802656","full_text":"我非常看好西方石油。在投资之前,我曾亲自走访过它的油田,研究其财报。最近的回调给了我继续加仓的大好良机。赚钱的机会往往出现在被市场错杀的时候。未来是AI革命与宏观经济危机并存的年代,所以投资上有很多的挑战,看了这篇文章你就会理解为何投资西方石油是巴菲特应对危机和技术革命的神来之笔。\n\n1. 最近西方股价下杀,有两大原因。一是国际油价下跌,第二是西方石油把其化工产业卖给了巴菲特的伯克希尔。很多人觉得西方石油把一块非常有利润的业务舍弃了,所以引起恐慌抛售。然而这是完全不理性的。第一,西方石油拿到了九十多亿的现金,能够让其财务更健康。具体财务分析我就不细说了,然而我想强调,巴菲特作为西方石油最大的股东,怎么可能花钱做不利于西方石油的收购呢?搬起石头砸自己的脚?让自己的股份贬值吗?这显然不可能。在巴菲特完成收购后,西方石油CEO Hollub在上个礼拜说西方石油之后将会财务更加稳健,业务更加集中,增加更加迅速,计划股价在五年内翻倍。这是得到了巴菲特背书的测算。在现在的投机环境下,这是相当可观的增长。\n\n2. 巴菲特讲过投资西方石油是他对未来AI时代的布局。AI一定会导致电力需求暴增,而西方石油的天然气业务一定会迎来爆炸式增长。这也是个AI时代卖铲子的好生意。现在美国的电力已经出现严重短缺,建立新的发电厂的投资络绎不绝,电力设备公司的股价已经屡创新高,相信这股势头很快就会传导到能源公司。巴菲特也明确说明收购西方石油的化工业务也是为了能让西方石油能够有更多资金,集中全部资源发展核心能源业务,把握住这个未来的大趋势。这绝对是非常明智的长远战略布局。这就像一个企业家有一个稳定收租的豪宅,当市场机会来临时,对于企业家来说,卖掉这个豪宅给一个有钱,且只想经营被动收入的老人,拿一大笔钱去做自己擅长的大生意才是最明智的。这对于企业家和老人是真正的双赢,而且老人本身也是企业家生意的第一大股东。如果市场解读为企业家放弃了优良资产那是大错特错的。所以我觉得市场完全错误估计了这场收购。\n\n3. 最近美国股市波动加大,银行坏账问题浮出水面,市场避险情绪急剧升温。未来的宏观经济并不容乐观,所以对经济放缓的担忧打击了油价。然而经济放缓的底层原因是什么呢?是债务货币化。全球债务水平已经不可持续,美国的债务利息支出都已经超过了军费,而且还在上升。最后不可避免要通过超发货币来解决债务问题。美国通胀依旧保持在高位,但是经济和就业已经放缓,不得不进入降息周期,这让货币贬值的压力进一步增大。这也是黄金作为抗击货币贬值的终极利器为何迎来历史性大涨。石油虽然会受到经济周期的影响,在经济放缓中需求减弱,但是石油具作为能源必需品和大宗商品,具有强定价权,所以长期看石油公司总是能够在不确定性中穿越宏观周期的,是典型的防御性板块,尤其是能够抵抗货币面值。我相信这也是为什么巴菲特在不看好宏观经济的情况下,却一直大举加仓西方石油和雪佛龙。\n\n这是一脉相承的,债务危机不断累积,风险资产、股市和加密货币开始宽幅震荡,黄金价格暴涨。对宏观经济的担忧导致经济放缓,短期打击了石油需求,导致油价下跌。然而真正的债务危机很快会浮出水面,债务货币化和货币贬值又会长期托起油价。\n\n所以我一直在为此布局,今年下半年以来我不断减少科技股的持仓,开始配置大量的黄金、美债、以及能源和保险股(主要是西方石油、雪弗龙和联合健康)。我大概流动资产的配置是15%的美国短期债券,15%的股票,20%的美国长期国债,50%的黄金。\n\n长债和石油是相反的,短期利好,长期承压。长债之前被压抑了很久,随着降息周期和避险情绪的增加应该会有一波上涨行情。但是随着债务货币化,名义收益率会骤降,长期波动肯定会加大,所以我并不打算长期持有,会在降息周期中择机抛售,继续增持黄金,以及在低位配置能源股。\n\n最后我还想再说说巴菲特。很多人说巴菲特投资西方石油亏损了,因为他买了以后股价下跌了很多。其实巴菲特并没有亏,因为他除了购买了大量的普通股(这部分确实亏损了),但是他同时也购买了很多优先股。这部分的股价是不变的,而且每年还会给巴菲特8%的股息分红。这样一中和,巴菲特一点都不亏。这也非常符合巴菲特的投资性格,不渴求买到股价的最底部,只要有足够的安全边际就会毫不犹豫的下场。巴菲特可以说是对西方石油的信心与日俱增,不然也不会又花90多亿让其可以扩大能源项目的布局。然而我们买不到优先股,所以如果在巴菲特买股票的时候,也马上跟着买,持仓成本会比巴菲特高很多。所以我之前一直不买西方石油,只有在股价回调时大举进入。很多人说抄巴菲特作业亏本了,其实是不会抄罢了。抄作业也有技巧。我们必须把巴菲特的持仓成本做好换算后再抄作业。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979586375763771425","view_count":19045,"bookmark_count":40,"created_at":1760805145000,"favorite_count":82,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":12,"retweet_count":11,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979586375763771425","full_text":"今晚讲黄金和加密货币!过些日子讲债券配置:短债和货币基金有什么区别?TLT和直债如何选择?以及4大银行如何选择?(摩根大通、美国银行、摩根士丹利、汇丰)普通业务怎么选?外汇业务怎么选?投资业务怎么选?私人银行业务怎么选?中国、香港、新加坡、美国、瑞士怎么选?怎样全球资产配置可以如虎添翼?","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[33,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1674011365340778496","name":"G L","screen_name":"GL7525638026680","indices":[0,16]},{"id_str":"1161248776880832512","name":"David_Z","screen_name":"DavidZ11966088","indices":[17,32]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"GL7525638026680","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979577309876326683","view_count":6694,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1760802984000,"favorite_count":21,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1958544604820889790","full_text":"@GL7525638026680 @DavidZ11966088 短期震荡不可预测,长期必将一飞冲天。当年比特币的增长是什么水平,黄金就会怎么涨。比特币只号称是数字黄金,当债务货币化真正到来的时候,真正的黄金会一路高歌猛进。全球债务已经达到了史无前例的水平,黄金也会有史无前例的增长。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1674011365340778496","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1979572292418994602","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[16,38],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1161248776880832512","name":"David_Z","screen_name":"DavidZ11966088","indices":[0,15]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"DavidZ11966088","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979568994773553522","view_count":6088,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760801001000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1958544604820889790","full_text":"@DavidZ11966088 我刚刚为此写了一篇文章,你可以在我主页上看。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1161248776880832512","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1979319933113930001","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-20","value":2,"startTime":1760832000000,"endTime":1760918400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,116],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979845314447389073","view_count":67,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760866881000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979845314447389073","full_text":"杨振宁的科学成就是毋庸置疑的。至于他的人品和为人,我不认识他,所以完全无感,无所谓好坏。但是我感觉网上骂他的人,一大部分是因为羡慕嫉妒恨。他们要是有能力和统战价值,未必不去捞名捞利,未必不想找个年轻老婆,可惜他们没有这个能力和价值。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,77],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"2561532174","name":"Zhaonuo","screen_name":"gaoxiaoccp","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"gaoxiaoccp","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979765095661236226","view_count":1,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760847755000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979574646266802656","full_text":"@gaoxiaoccp 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中国文化中没有privacy和secrecy的区别。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1457238121679302657","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980118861254164694","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-22","value":14,"startTime":1761004800000,"endTime":1761091200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,141],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1980431376957513846","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/XAk9M456ZA","expanded":"https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1980431376957513846","display":"x.com/zerohedge/stat…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980471352504246759","view_count":3968,"bookmark_count":4,"created_at":1761016140000,"favorite_count":14,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980471352504246759","full_text":"1/3的美国人信用卡债务已经超过存款。这不仅仅是美国的问题,全世界都是如此。中国的隐性债更是大到难以估计。个人负债、国家负债、资不抵债成为全球经济的主旋律,美国作为火车头也深陷泥潭。自从有人类以来,全球债务水平没有这么高过。债务货币化不可避免,货币贬值板上钉钉,中长期黄金想跌都难。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-23","value":218,"startTime":1761091200000,"endTime":1761177600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,143],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980804450601357737","view_count":862,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761095557000,"favorite_count":7,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980804450601357737","full_text":"黄金暴跌?!简直就是笑话!相比黄金一直的大涨,这只能算是一个小小的波动。就算昨天跌完,单单最近一个月还是暴涨了10%。算上今年年初到现在,黄金涨过了我手上所有的股票,英伟达、标普、科技ETF、能源股。回调是加仓的好机会。牛市里千金难买牛回头,熊市里到处都是死猫条。黄金上涨的逻辑没改变。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,143],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980870679852650765","view_count":33429,"bookmark_count":30,"created_at":1761111347000,"favorite_count":199,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":23,"retweet_count":12,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980870679852650765","full_text":"黄金暴跌?!简直就是笑话!相比黄金一直的大涨,这只能算是一个小小的波动。就算昨天跌完,单单最近一个月还是暴涨了10%。算上今年年初到现在,黄金涨过了我手上所有的股票,英伟达、标普、科技ETF、能源股。回调是加仓的好机会。牛市里千金难买牛回头,熊市里到处都是死猫条。黄金上涨的逻辑没改变。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,63],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1366565625401909249","name":"Wall 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把白宫里面装修成金色是不够的,应该把外墙都贴上24k金,从此改名叫金宫。这才是留名青史的大功绩。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1366565625401909249","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981011584832204920","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-24","value":1404,"startTime":1761177600000,"endTime":1761264000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981386135763898725","view_count":2,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761234241000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1981386135763898725","full_text":"我前些天和德勤的一个中国区合伙人聊天,终于搞清楚了CRS的原理,也终于明白为什么美国明明不在CRS系统里面,但有些人用美国券商(如IBKR)还是会被追税。我今天就来讲一讲。顺便也说一下地下钱庄换汇和税务的风险,以及中国税务居民用美国银行卡+美资券商的相关问题。\n\nCRS是看不到你的交易明细的,只会看到你在CRS辖区内账户在几个时间点的资金额。当你的资金体量比较大的时候,你就可能被盯上。目前是各地税局分别负责,全国没有统一标准,但是金额门槛正在下沉。去年还只是查千万美金级别的户主,今年甚至有几十万美金的户主也中招。\n\n假如你有一张港卡,被CRS交换了,金额又达到了某个标准,那么税局就有可能会盯上你。这时候税局不是直接按照他们掌握的信息来收税,而是会要求你主动申报,要你把海外所有账户的银行流水、券商交易记录交出来,一般是看近3年的(有的甚至会要求看6年,但是你可以找会计和他们argue,有专业人士介入会好很多)。虽然税局本身看不到你的交易明细和流水,更看不到你美资券商的买卖记录,但问题是你敢不敢隐瞒呢?你要不要冒着犯罪的风险去造假流水呢?很多人不敢。这也是为什么很多人用美资券商还是会被收税。\n\n如果你是美国银行账户+美国券商,原则上不可能被CRS侦测到,中国税局也不会知道你在外国有账户,更不会找你索要信息。但在实操过程中,这样也存在很多问题。比如,中国人如何把大额资金弄到美国?大部分人的大额资金出境都要通过香港账户,因为香港是全世界对出入金监管最宽松的地方之一。\n\n美国对洗钱防范得特别严格。联邦法律规定一万美金以上的流动就要自动进入系统以备检查。所以出入金特别困难。如果外国人的账户长期有不同的外国人汇钱进来,很可能就会被封户。人在美国的外国人的账户会好很多,系统会备注你的信息,所以留学生收到国内很多汇款也一般不会出现问题。\n\n但是只要你人在美国半年以上,这就包括了所有留学生和在美工作的中国人,你的投资收益是要按照美国人的标准去交美国税的,这个税比中国的税还重。而且逃税的惩罚非常非常严重,美国税局IRS比中国要严厉很多。\n\n那能不能把钱汇给正在美国留学的孩子,然后再转去中国父母的美资券商账户呢?这样既不会被美国银行风控封户,也逃过了被CRS和中国税局的追踪,也不用交美国的税。答案是很难操作。因为法律规定,外国人在美国开的券商账户只接受同名账户的转账。当然你还是可以让子女再把钱一次性打到你的美国银行账户,再转入券商。因为是在美国国内亲属一次性打款的,不是很多个5万美金的境外汇款,这就不会引起风控。但是我必须说,我不是在鼓励大家逃税!\n\n但是这种方法不适合资金体量比较大的人操作,因为很难通过多个5万美金的蚂蚁搬家把钱汇出去。大部分人还是会选择地下钱庄来换钱,这又叫“对敲”。也就是你在中国往钱庄的中国境内账户打一笔钱,同时钱庄往你的境外账户打一笔等值的美金。都必须是即时到账,降低风险。大家都看到到账后,再马上打下一笔。这样敲几次,就把钱换走了。对敲被认为是最保险的,因为如果不是即时到账,谁都担心被骗。再说一遍,我不是在鼓励大家非法换汇。\n\n对敲一般只能用港卡,因为香港和中国一样,可以大额资金境内转账即时到账,而且不容易触发风控;而在美国就非常困难。一是美国即使是国内大额转账也不是即时到账,二是你的美国账户短时间收到好几笔大额款项,八成账户就会被封。\n\n但是港卡一旦有大额款项,通过CRS,中国税局就会知道你在海外有资金了。所以这就是为什么大部分有钱人走资以后,都会被CRS查到并要求补税。就是因为他们不得不用港卡走资。即使不用港卡,所有能满足对敲需求的地区都在CRS网络里面。\n\n今天我讲的是普通有钱人遇到的问题,明天我来讲一讲中国税局是如何对付企业家的。顶豪们早就在税局重点关注的名单上了,但同时也早就请律师和会计做好了各种架构,身份也移民了,早已不是中国税务居民,钱也不是通过地下钱庄,而是通过外资股东分红和一层层壳公司,用各种复杂的商业操作换走的,非常难被穿透。但是现在中国税局也进化出了一套方法,让这些人的海外收入缴税。明天再讲其中的门道。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981387300069134635","view_count":179390,"bookmark_count":1407,"created_at":1761234519000,"favorite_count":1113,"quote_count":5,"reply_count":40,"retweet_count":258,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1981387300069134635","full_text":"我最近找德勤做了点业务,终于搞清楚了CRS的原理,也终于明白了为什么美国明明不在CRS里面,但有些人用美国券商(如IBKR)还是会被追税。顺便也说一下地下钱庄换汇和税务的风险,以及中国人用美国银行卡+美资券商的相关问题。这绝对是全网相关议题最详细和深入的讨论!\n\nCRS是看不到你的交易明细的,只会看到你在CRS辖区内账户在几个时间点的资金额。当你的资金体量比较大的时候,你就可能被盯上。目前是各地税局分别负责,全国没有统一标准,但是金额门槛正在下沉。去年还只是查千万美金级别的户主,今年甚至有几十万美金的户主也中招。\n\n假如你有一张港卡,被CRS交换了,金额又达到了某个标准,那么税局就有可能会盯上你。这时候税局不是直接按照他们掌握的信息来收税,而是会要求你主动申报,要你把海外所有账户的银行流水、券商交易记录交出来,一般是看近3年的(有的甚至会要求看6年,但是你可以找会计和他们argue,有专业人士介入会好很多)。虽然税局本身看不到你的交易明细和流水,更看不到你美资券商的买卖记录,但问题是你敢不敢隐瞒呢?你要不要冒着犯罪的风险去造假流水呢?很多人不敢。这也是为什么很多人用美资券商还是会被收税。\n\n如果你是美国银行账户+美国券商,原则上不可能被CRS侦测到,中国税局也不会知道你在外国有账户,更不会找你索要信息。但在实操过程中,这样也存在很多问题。比如,中国人如何把大额资金弄到美国?大部分人的大额资金出境都要通过香港账户,因为香港是全世界对出入金监管最宽松的地方之一。\n\n美国对洗钱防范得特别严格。联邦法律规定一万美金以上的流动就要自动进入系统以备检查。所以出入金特别困难。如果外国人的账户长期有不同的外国人汇钱进来,很可能就会被封户。人在美国的外国人的账户会好很多,系统会备注你的信息,所以留学生收到国内很多汇款也一般不会出现问题。\n\n但是只要你人在美国半年以上,这就包括了所有留学生和在美工作的中国人,你的投资收益是要按照美国人的标准去交美国税的,这个税比中国的税还重。而且逃税的惩罚非常非常严重,美国税局IRS比中国要严厉很多。\n\n那能不能把钱汇给正在美国留学的孩子,然后再转去中国父母的美资券商账户呢?这样既不会被美国银行风控封户,也逃过了被CRS和中国税局的追踪,也不用交美国的税。答案是很难操作。因为法律规定,外国人在美国开的券商账户只接受同名账户的转账。当然你还是可以让子女再把钱一次性打到你的美国银行账户,再转入券商。因为是在美国国内亲属一次性打款的,不是很多个5万美金的境外汇款,这就不会引起风控。但是我必须说,我不是在鼓励大家逃税!\n\n但是这种方法不适合资金体量比较大的人操作,因为很难通过多个5万美金的蚂蚁搬家把钱汇出去。大部分人还是会选择地下钱庄来换钱,这又叫“对敲”。也就是你在中国往钱庄的中国境内账户打一笔钱,同时钱庄往你的境外账户打一笔等值的美金。都必须是即时到账,降低风险。大家都看到到账后,再马上打下一笔。这样敲几次,就把钱换走了。对敲被认为是最保险的,因为如果不是即时到账,谁都担心被骗。再说一遍,我不是在鼓励大家非法换汇。\n\n对敲一般只能用港卡,因为香港和中国一样,可以大额资金境内转账即时到账,而且不容易触发风控;而在美国就非常困难。一是美国即使是国内大额转账也不是即时到账,二是你的美国账户短时间收到好几笔大额款项,八成账户就会被封。\n\n但是港卡一旦有大额款项,通过CRS,中国税局就会知道你在海外有资金了。所以这就是为什么大部分有钱人走资以后,都会被CRS查到并要求补税。就是因为他们不得不用港卡走资。即使不用港卡,所有能满足对敲需求的地区都在CRS网络里面。\n\n今天我讲的是普通有钱人遇到的问题,明天我来讲一讲中国税局是如何对付企业家的。顶豪们早就在税局重点关注的名单上了,但同时也早就请律师和会计做好了各种架构,身份也移民了,早已不是中国税务居民,钱也不是通过地下钱庄,而是通过外资股东分红和一层层壳公司,用各种复杂的商业操作换走的,非常难被穿透。但是现在中国税局也进化出了一套方法,让这些人的海外收入缴税。明天再讲其中的门道。为什么你移民到了国外,依然可能会被中国税局追税?他们又是如何做到的。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,19],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps"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Don’t despair; America will come back and so will Berkshire shares.\n\n注意,这里用的是未来时,也就是巴菲特预计未来股价会大幅波动,而且会下跌50%。\n\n结合巴菲特在早前的股东大会说,他不希望预测时间,但他觉得重大的投资机会会在5年内出现;以及他说,没有人愿意持有正在奔向地狱的货币。我还在消化这里面的信息。之后再和大家细聊。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,105],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988253398010036397","view_count":46697,"bookmark_count":111,"created_at":1762871524000,"favorite_count":210,"quote_count":6,"reply_count":20,"retweet_count":29,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988253398010036397","full_text":"巴菲特给股东写了一封长信,并宣称之后会安静下来,和股东沟通的任务交给新CEO。他几乎没有评价现在的市场。但却单独起了一段只讲了一句话:我们的股价将会大幅波动,偶尔会下跌大约 50%,在现任管理层执掌公司的 60 年里,这种情况已经发生过三次。不要灰心,美国会再度振作,伯克希尔的股价也会随之回升。\n\n巴菲特的这封长信主要是在回顾人生,初看非常励志、非常暖心。但当我看到那句话时,我惊出一身冷汗。这仿佛是在大灾难之前给人们做好心理建设。\n\nOur stock price will move capriciously, occasionally falling 50% or so as has happened three times in 60 years under present management. Don’t despair; America will come back and so will Berkshire shares.\n\n注意,这里用的是未来时,也就是巴菲特预计未来股价会大幅波动,而且会下跌50%。\n\n巴菲特几十年来撰写的所有的股东信我都读过,他这些年的每一个年会和采访我都看过。巴菲特说话从来都很含蓄,从来不会完全说破。对于不熟悉他风格的人,乍听一下,他说的每一句话都没有什么深意。比如上面那句话,任何时候、任何公司的股价都可能大幅波动甚至腰斩,尤其是在一个很长的时间线上。但是当你听他说话多了以后,就会发现他有个习惯,每说一句话都要停下来想一想,每一句话都不是随口乱说的。他非常讲究在什么时间说什么话。比如在早前的几次股灾中,他会说要注意估值风险。这句话看似也是没有什么意义。投资什么时候不应该关心估值风险呢?但巴菲特只会在他觉得市场泡沫的时候这样说。在他要大举出手买货的时候,他会说宁愿花不便宜的价钱买好公司。\n\n巴菲特之所以是股神,并不是他能押中最赚钱的股票,而是他践行了他的名言:只有当潮水退去时,才知道谁在裸泳。\n\n结合巴菲特在早前的股东大会上的说法,他不希望预测时间,但他觉得重大的投资机会会在5年内出现;以及他说,没有人愿意持有正在奔向地狱的货币。我还在消化这里面的信息。之后再和大家细聊。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[9,93],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"945607507510038528","name":"Pathfinder","screen_name":"Pathusa","indices":[0,8]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Pathusa","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988242829651608061","view_count":1979,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1762869005000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1987933646767136949","full_text":"@Pathusa Circle有两个致命问题。盈利高度依赖国债收益率,跟coinbase签订了无法解约的卖身契。Circle除非找到新的增长点,才有大爆发的潜力。现在这个价位还不够安全。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"945607507510038528","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987933646767136949","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-13","value":0,"startTime":1762905600000,"endTime":1762992000000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-14","value":257,"startTime":1762992000000,"endTime":1763078400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,140],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988986827848798543","view_count":33,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763046388000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988986827848798543","full_text":"巴菲特曾经赞扬过中国对加密行业的管制。其实中国政府做得非常差,漏洞到处都是。我认为支付宝和微信出入金加密货币,应该立刻封号。这已经成为电信诈骗利用的漏洞。目前英美的汇丰银行、摩根大通才真正走在了风控的前列,基本上离岸账户(非开户行所在地居民的账号)在加密货币出入金就会被终身封户。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,143],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988993507542069645","view_count":26,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763047980000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988993507542069645","full_text":"中国应效法美国,向境外汇款超过1万美金,必须合规审查,没有备案的加密货币交易,或境外账户的买卖,终身封户(美国叫做debank)。境内用户也必须要在交易所报备个人社会信用信息才能交易。中国的国际汇款和加密货币出入金既没和个人征信绑定,违规也不封卡、封微信,政府不作为,电诈才有可乘之机!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1988893869212139873","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/J7x0x5DgHO","expanded":"https://twitter.com/ipaulcanada/status/1988893869212139873","display":"x.com/ipaulcanada/st…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989012531592196460","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763052516000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989012531592196460","full_text":"做空的前提是赚钱而不是赌气。21年卖房买美股,25年再低价买回来,然后超低利息贷给银行,套钱出来买黄金。生娃生三个,每胎拿补贴。黄金不变现,加上银行贷款是负债,千万富翁白嫖低保。银行要完成社融数据,心甘情愿被你薅羊毛。这才是在中国生活的最高境界。那些不生孩子,不买房的,都在给你打工。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1988893869212139873","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/J7x0x5DgHO","expanded":"https://twitter.com/ipaulcanada/status/1988893869212139873","display":"x.com/ipaulcanada/st…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989012279996871062","view_count":43,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763052456000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989012279996871062","full_text":"做空的前提是赚钱而不是赌气。21年卖房买美股,25年再低价买回来,然后超低利息贷给银行,套钱出来买黄金。生娃生三个,每胎拿补贴。黄金不变现,加上银行贷款是负债,千万富翁白嫖低保。银行要完成社融数据,心甘情愿被你薅羊毛。这才是在中国生活的最高境界。那些不生孩子,不买房,都是在给你打工。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,140],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989015555748294766","view_count":42911,"bookmark_count":60,"created_at":1763053237000,"favorite_count":238,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":16,"retweet_count":21,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989015555748294766","full_text":"大家记得,牛市让你赚小钱,熊市才让你发大财。牛市中大家都在赚钱,你只能保证不掉队,或者缓慢爬坡。熊市里大家都不赚钱,但你把握住了机会,就会一举跨越阶级。所以强者永远不抱怨这里经济不好,也不羡慕那里大环境更好。顶级投资者,包括股神巴菲特,往往在牛市里表现平平,但熊市一来,一飞冲天。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1820104162715246592","name":"malaimo","screen_name":"0rain4fall","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"0rain4fall","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989017760803008630","view_count":8303,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1763053762000,"favorite_count":18,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988930609809695067","full_text":"@0rain4fall 叶文洁是自己按的。首先叶文洁有那个本事,才有资格去按那个按钮。你若不是叶文洁,就忍着吧。即使你是,按了以后也要再等400年。人生像油条,要想成熟先煎熬。而且话说回来。有的人真可悲,绝望的时候宁可选择毁灭,也不去信靠能带来救赎的耶稣基督。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1820104162715246592","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1988930609809695067","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-15","value":59,"startTime":1763078400000,"endTime":1763164800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,14],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1985737463823011847","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/xiBsvWdxPC","expanded":"https://twitter.com/realtaoray/status/1985737463823011847","display":"x.com/realtaoray/sta…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989127805507105041","view_count":683,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763079999000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989127805507105041","full_text":"我这个空单的含金量还在上升!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,84],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989134466900808016","view_count":33951,"bookmark_count":19,"created_at":1763081587000,"favorite_count":57,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":13,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989134466900808016","full_text":"何同学进军英文油管。大有成为华人第一YouTuber的驾驶。短短几个视频,已经超越百万订阅,单个视频播放量也在百万上下。我觉得他的视频是挺有意思,比飓风影音好看太多了。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,47],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989183690363249058","view_count":128,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763093323000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989183690363249058","full_text":"大空头Michael Burry的例子告诉我们:所谓的人生发财靠康波,其实是,坑你一波又一波。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,61],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"realTaoRay","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989125269731655997","view_count":1677,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763079395000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989015555748294766","full_text":"我说的不是美股,美股还在牛市里,虽然要居安思危。我说的是中国。我看到网上很多绝望的声音,甚至有人说要叶文洁按电钮之类的话。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989015555748294766","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-16","value":0,"startTime":1763164800000,"endTime":1763251200000,"tweets":[]}],"nviews":[{"label":"2025-10-17","value":0,"startTime":1760572800000,"endTime":1760659200000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-18","value":0,"startTime":1760659200000,"endTime":1760745600000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-19","value":83033,"startTime":1760745600000,"endTime":1760832000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979568813151850933","view_count":264,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760800958000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979568813151850933","full_text":"我非常看好西方石油。在投资之前,我曾经亲自走访过它的公司和油田,研究其财报。深入调查后,我信心满满。最近的回调给了我继续加仓的大好良机。赚钱的机会往往出现在被市场错杀的时候。我简要分享我长期看好西方石油的逻辑,为何分析师错的离谱,以及我最新的资产配置。\n\n1. 最近西方股价下杀,有两大原因。一是国际油价下跌,第二是西方石油把其化工产业卖给了巴菲特的伯克希尔。很多分析师觉得西方石油把一块非常有利润的业务舍弃了,所以引起恐慌抛售。然而这是完全不理性的。第一,西方石油拿到了九十多亿的现金,能够让其财务更健康。具体财务分析我就不细说了,然而我想强调,巴菲特作为西方石油最大的股东,怎么可能花钱做不利于西方石油的收购呢?搬起石头砸自己的脚?让自己的股份贬值吗?这显然不可能。在巴菲特完成收购后,西方石油CEO Hollub在上个礼拜说西方石油之后将会财务更加稳健,业务更加集中,增加更加迅速,计划股价在五年内翻倍。这是得到了巴菲特背书的测算。在现在的投机环境下,这是相当可观的增长。\n\n2. 巴菲特讲过投资西方石油是他对未来AI时代的布局。AI一定会导致电力需求暴增,而西方石油的天然气业务一定会迎来爆炸式增长。这也是个AI时代卖铲子的好生意。现在美国的电力已经出现严重短缺,建立新的发电厂的投资络绎不绝,电力设备公司的股价已经屡创新高,相信这股势头很快就会传导到能源公司。巴菲特也明确说明收购西方石油的化工业务也是为了能让西方石油能够有更多资金,集中全部资源发展核心能源业务,把握住未来AI时代的大趋势。这绝对是非常明智的长远战略布局。这就像一个企业家有一个稳定收租的豪宅,当市场的大机会来临时,对于企业家来说,卖掉这个豪宅给一个有钱,且只想经营被动收入的老人,拿一大笔钱去做自己擅长的大生意才是最明智的。这对于企业家和老人是真正的双赢,而且老人本身也是企业家生意的第一大股东。如果市场分析师解读为企业家放弃了优良资产那是大错特错的。所以我觉得市场完全错误评估了这场收购。\n\n3. 最近美国股市波动加大,银行坏账问题浮出水面,市场避险情绪急剧升温。未来的宏观经济并不容乐观,所以对经济放缓的担忧打击了油价。然而经济放缓的底层原因是什么呢?是债务货币化。全球债务水平已经不可持续,美国的债务利息支出都已经超过了军费,而且还在上升。最后不可避免要通过超发货币来解决债务问题。美国通胀依旧保持在高位,但是经济和就业已经放缓,不得不进入降息周期,这让货币贬值的压力进一步增大。这也是黄金作为抗击货币贬值的终极利器为何迎来历史性大涨。石油虽然会受到经济周期的影响,在经济放缓中需求减弱,但是石油具作为能源必需品和大宗商品,具有强定价权,所以长期看石油公司总是能够在不确定性中穿越宏观周期的,是典型的防御性板块,尤其是能够抵抗货币面值。我相信这也是为什么巴菲特在不看好宏观经济的情况下,却一直大举加仓西方石油和雪佛龙。\n\n这是一脉相承的,债务危机不断累积,风险资产、股市和加密货币开始宽幅震荡,黄金价格暴涨。对宏观经济的担忧首先影响了经济活力和就业,导致经济放缓,短期打击了石油需求,油价下跌。然而真正的病根,债务危机,很快会浮出水面,债务货币化和货币贬值会接踵而来,这又会长期托起油价。\n\n所以我一直在为此布局,今年下半年以来我不断减少科技股的持仓,开始配置大量的黄金、美债、以及能源和保险股(主要是西方石油、雪弗龙和联合健康)。我大概流动资产的配置是15%的美国短期债券,15%的股票,20%的美国长期国债,50%的黄金。\n\n长债和石油是相反的,短期利好,长期却承压。长债之前被压抑了很久,随着降息周期和避险情绪的增加应该会有一波上涨行情。但是随着债务货币化,名义收益率会骤降,长期波动肯定会加大,所以我并不打算长期持有,会在降息周期中择机抛售,继续增持黄金,以及在低位配置能源股。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,141],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979574646266802656","view_count":50942,"bookmark_count":212,"created_at":1760802349000,"favorite_count":261,"quote_count":3,"reply_count":29,"retweet_count":48,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979574646266802656","full_text":"我非常看好西方石油。在投资之前,我曾亲自走访过它的油田,研究其财报。最近的回调给了我继续加仓的大好良机。赚钱的机会往往出现在被市场错杀的时候。未来是AI革命与宏观经济危机并存的年代,所以投资上有很多的挑战,看了这篇文章你就会理解为何投资西方石油是巴菲特应对危机和技术革命的神来之笔。\n\n1. 最近西方股价下杀,有两大原因。一是国际油价下跌,第二是西方石油把其化工产业卖给了巴菲特的伯克希尔。很多人觉得西方石油把一块非常有利润的业务舍弃了,所以引起恐慌抛售。然而这是完全不理性的。第一,西方石油拿到了九十多亿的现金,能够让其财务更健康。具体财务分析我就不细说了,然而我想强调,巴菲特作为西方石油最大的股东,怎么可能花钱做不利于西方石油的收购呢?搬起石头砸自己的脚?让自己的股份贬值吗?这显然不可能。在巴菲特完成收购后,西方石油CEO Hollub在上个礼拜说西方石油之后将会财务更加稳健,业务更加集中,增加更加迅速,计划股价在五年内翻倍。这是得到了巴菲特背书的测算。在现在的投机环境下,这是相当可观的增长。\n\n2. 巴菲特讲过投资西方石油是他对未来AI时代的布局。AI一定会导致电力需求暴增,而西方石油的天然气业务一定会迎来爆炸式增长。这也是个AI时代卖铲子的好生意。现在美国的电力已经出现严重短缺,建立新的发电厂的投资络绎不绝,电力设备公司的股价已经屡创新高,相信这股势头很快就会传导到能源公司。巴菲特也明确说明收购西方石油的化工业务也是为了能让西方石油能够有更多资金,集中全部资源发展核心能源业务,把握住这个未来的大趋势。这绝对是非常明智的长远战略布局。这就像一个企业家有一个稳定收租的豪宅,当市场机会来临时,对于企业家来说,卖掉这个豪宅给一个有钱,且只想经营被动收入的老人,拿一大笔钱去做自己擅长的大生意才是最明智的。这对于企业家和老人是真正的双赢,而且老人本身也是企业家生意的第一大股东。如果市场解读为企业家放弃了优良资产那是大错特错的。所以我觉得市场完全错误估计了这场收购。\n\n3. 最近美国股市波动加大,银行坏账问题浮出水面,市场避险情绪急剧升温。未来的宏观经济并不容乐观,所以对经济放缓的担忧打击了油价。然而经济放缓的底层原因是什么呢?是债务货币化。全球债务水平已经不可持续,美国的债务利息支出都已经超过了军费,而且还在上升。最后不可避免要通过超发货币来解决债务问题。美国通胀依旧保持在高位,但是经济和就业已经放缓,不得不进入降息周期,这让货币贬值的压力进一步增大。这也是黄金作为抗击货币贬值的终极利器为何迎来历史性大涨。石油虽然会受到经济周期的影响,在经济放缓中需求减弱,但是石油具作为能源必需品和大宗商品,具有强定价权,所以长期看石油公司总是能够在不确定性中穿越宏观周期的,是典型的防御性板块,尤其是能够抵抗货币面值。我相信这也是为什么巴菲特在不看好宏观经济的情况下,却一直大举加仓西方石油和雪佛龙。\n\n这是一脉相承的,债务危机不断累积,风险资产、股市和加密货币开始宽幅震荡,黄金价格暴涨。对宏观经济的担忧导致经济放缓,短期打击了石油需求,导致油价下跌。然而真正的债务危机很快会浮出水面,债务货币化和货币贬值又会长期托起油价。\n\n所以我一直在为此布局,今年下半年以来我不断减少科技股的持仓,开始配置大量的黄金、美债、以及能源和保险股(主要是西方石油、雪弗龙和联合健康)。我大概流动资产的配置是15%的美国短期债券,15%的股票,20%的美国长期国债,50%的黄金。\n\n长债和石油是相反的,短期利好,长期承压。长债之前被压抑了很久,随着降息周期和避险情绪的增加应该会有一波上涨行情。但是随着债务货币化,名义收益率会骤降,长期波动肯定会加大,所以我并不打算长期持有,会在降息周期中择机抛售,继续增持黄金,以及在低位配置能源股。\n\n最后我还想再说说巴菲特。很多人说巴菲特投资西方石油亏损了,因为他买了以后股价下跌了很多。其实巴菲特并没有亏,因为他除了购买了大量的普通股(这部分确实亏损了),但是他同时也购买了很多优先股。这部分的股价是不变的,而且每年还会给巴菲特8%的股息分红。这样一中和,巴菲特一点都不亏。这也非常符合巴菲特的投资性格,不渴求买到股价的最底部,只要有足够的安全边际就会毫不犹豫的下场。巴菲特可以说是对西方石油的信心与日俱增,不然也不会又花90多亿让其可以扩大能源项目的布局。然而我们买不到优先股,所以如果在巴菲特买股票的时候,也马上跟着买,持仓成本会比巴菲特高很多。所以我之前一直不买西方石油,只有在股价回调时大举进入。很多人说抄巴菲特作业亏本了,其实是不会抄罢了。抄作业也有技巧。我们必须把巴菲特的持仓成本做好换算后再抄作业。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979586375763771425","view_count":19045,"bookmark_count":40,"created_at":1760805145000,"favorite_count":82,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":12,"retweet_count":11,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979586375763771425","full_text":"今晚讲黄金和加密货币!过些日子讲债券配置:短债和货币基金有什么区别?TLT和直债如何选择?以及4大银行如何选择?(摩根大通、美国银行、摩根士丹利、汇丰)普通业务怎么选?外汇业务怎么选?投资业务怎么选?私人银行业务怎么选?中国、香港、新加坡、美国、瑞士怎么选?怎样全球资产配置可以如虎添翼?","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[33,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1674011365340778496","name":"G L","screen_name":"GL7525638026680","indices":[0,16]},{"id_str":"1161248776880832512","name":"David_Z","screen_name":"DavidZ11966088","indices":[17,32]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"GL7525638026680","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979577309876326683","view_count":6694,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1760802984000,"favorite_count":21,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1958544604820889790","full_text":"@GL7525638026680 @DavidZ11966088 短期震荡不可预测,长期必将一飞冲天。当年比特币的增长是什么水平,黄金就会怎么涨。比特币只号称是数字黄金,当债务货币化真正到来的时候,真正的黄金会一路高歌猛进。全球债务已经达到了史无前例的水平,黄金也会有史无前例的增长。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1674011365340778496","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1979572292418994602","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[16,38],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1161248776880832512","name":"David_Z","screen_name":"DavidZ11966088","indices":[0,15]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"DavidZ11966088","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979568994773553522","view_count":6088,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760801001000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1958544604820889790","full_text":"@DavidZ11966088 我刚刚为此写了一篇文章,你可以在我主页上看。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1161248776880832512","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1979319933113930001","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-20","value":908,"startTime":1760832000000,"endTime":1760918400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,116],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979845314447389073","view_count":67,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760866881000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979845314447389073","full_text":"杨振宁的科学成就是毋庸置疑的。至于他的人品和为人,我不认识他,所以完全无感,无所谓好坏。但是我感觉网上骂他的人,一大部分是因为羡慕嫉妒恨。他们要是有能力和统战价值,未必不去捞名捞利,未必不想找个年轻老婆,可惜他们没有这个能力和价值。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,77],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"2561532174","name":"Zhaonuo","screen_name":"gaoxiaoccp","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"gaoxiaoccp","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979765095661236226","view_count":1,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760847755000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1979574646266802656","full_text":"@gaoxiaoccp 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中国文化中没有privacy和secrecy的区别。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1457238121679302657","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980118861254164694","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-22","value":3968,"startTime":1761004800000,"endTime":1761091200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,141],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1980431376957513846","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/XAk9M456ZA","expanded":"https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1980431376957513846","display":"x.com/zerohedge/stat…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980471352504246759","view_count":3968,"bookmark_count":4,"created_at":1761016140000,"favorite_count":14,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980471352504246759","full_text":"1/3的美国人信用卡债务已经超过存款。这不仅仅是美国的问题,全世界都是如此。中国的隐性债更是大到难以估计。个人负债、国家负债、资不抵债成为全球经济的主旋律,美国作为火车头也深陷泥潭。自从有人类以来,全球债务水平没有这么高过。债务货币化不可避免,货币贬值板上钉钉,中长期黄金想跌都难。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-23","value":37481,"startTime":1761091200000,"endTime":1761177600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,143],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980804450601357737","view_count":862,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761095557000,"favorite_count":7,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980804450601357737","full_text":"黄金暴跌?!简直就是笑话!相比黄金一直的大涨,这只能算是一个小小的波动。就算昨天跌完,单单最近一个月还是暴涨了10%。算上今年年初到现在,黄金涨过了我手上所有的股票,英伟达、标普、科技ETF、能源股。回调是加仓的好机会。牛市里千金难买牛回头,熊市里到处都是死猫条。黄金上涨的逻辑没改变。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,143],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980870679852650765","view_count":33429,"bookmark_count":30,"created_at":1761111347000,"favorite_count":199,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":23,"retweet_count":12,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1980870679852650765","full_text":"黄金暴跌?!简直就是笑话!相比黄金一直的大涨,这只能算是一个小小的波动。就算昨天跌完,单单最近一个月还是暴涨了10%。算上今年年初到现在,黄金涨过了我手上所有的股票,英伟达、标普、科技ETF、能源股。回调是加仓的好机会。牛市里千金难买牛回头,熊市里到处都是死猫条。黄金上涨的逻辑没改变。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,63],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1366565625401909249","name":"Wall 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把白宫里面装修成金色是不够的,应该把外墙都贴上24k金,从此改名叫金宫。这才是留名青史的大功绩。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1366565625401909249","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981011584832204920","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-24","value":256257,"startTime":1761177600000,"endTime":1761264000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981386135763898725","view_count":2,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761234241000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1981386135763898725","full_text":"我前些天和德勤的一个中国区合伙人聊天,终于搞清楚了CRS的原理,也终于明白为什么美国明明不在CRS系统里面,但有些人用美国券商(如IBKR)还是会被追税。我今天就来讲一讲。顺便也说一下地下钱庄换汇和税务的风险,以及中国税务居民用美国银行卡+美资券商的相关问题。\n\nCRS是看不到你的交易明细的,只会看到你在CRS辖区内账户在几个时间点的资金额。当你的资金体量比较大的时候,你就可能被盯上。目前是各地税局分别负责,全国没有统一标准,但是金额门槛正在下沉。去年还只是查千万美金级别的户主,今年甚至有几十万美金的户主也中招。\n\n假如你有一张港卡,被CRS交换了,金额又达到了某个标准,那么税局就有可能会盯上你。这时候税局不是直接按照他们掌握的信息来收税,而是会要求你主动申报,要你把海外所有账户的银行流水、券商交易记录交出来,一般是看近3年的(有的甚至会要求看6年,但是你可以找会计和他们argue,有专业人士介入会好很多)。虽然税局本身看不到你的交易明细和流水,更看不到你美资券商的买卖记录,但问题是你敢不敢隐瞒呢?你要不要冒着犯罪的风险去造假流水呢?很多人不敢。这也是为什么很多人用美资券商还是会被收税。\n\n如果你是美国银行账户+美国券商,原则上不可能被CRS侦测到,中国税局也不会知道你在外国有账户,更不会找你索要信息。但在实操过程中,这样也存在很多问题。比如,中国人如何把大额资金弄到美国?大部分人的大额资金出境都要通过香港账户,因为香港是全世界对出入金监管最宽松的地方之一。\n\n美国对洗钱防范得特别严格。联邦法律规定一万美金以上的流动就要自动进入系统以备检查。所以出入金特别困难。如果外国人的账户长期有不同的外国人汇钱进来,很可能就会被封户。人在美国的外国人的账户会好很多,系统会备注你的信息,所以留学生收到国内很多汇款也一般不会出现问题。\n\n但是只要你人在美国半年以上,这就包括了所有留学生和在美工作的中国人,你的投资收益是要按照美国人的标准去交美国税的,这个税比中国的税还重。而且逃税的惩罚非常非常严重,美国税局IRS比中国要严厉很多。\n\n那能不能把钱汇给正在美国留学的孩子,然后再转去中国父母的美资券商账户呢?这样既不会被美国银行风控封户,也逃过了被CRS和中国税局的追踪,也不用交美国的税。答案是很难操作。因为法律规定,外国人在美国开的券商账户只接受同名账户的转账。当然你还是可以让子女再把钱一次性打到你的美国银行账户,再转入券商。因为是在美国国内亲属一次性打款的,不是很多个5万美金的境外汇款,这就不会引起风控。但是我必须说,我不是在鼓励大家逃税!\n\n但是这种方法不适合资金体量比较大的人操作,因为很难通过多个5万美金的蚂蚁搬家把钱汇出去。大部分人还是会选择地下钱庄来换钱,这又叫“对敲”。也就是你在中国往钱庄的中国境内账户打一笔钱,同时钱庄往你的境外账户打一笔等值的美金。都必须是即时到账,降低风险。大家都看到到账后,再马上打下一笔。这样敲几次,就把钱换走了。对敲被认为是最保险的,因为如果不是即时到账,谁都担心被骗。再说一遍,我不是在鼓励大家非法换汇。\n\n对敲一般只能用港卡,因为香港和中国一样,可以大额资金境内转账即时到账,而且不容易触发风控;而在美国就非常困难。一是美国即使是国内大额转账也不是即时到账,二是你的美国账户短时间收到好几笔大额款项,八成账户就会被封。\n\n但是港卡一旦有大额款项,通过CRS,中国税局就会知道你在海外有资金了。所以这就是为什么大部分有钱人走资以后,都会被CRS查到并要求补税。就是因为他们不得不用港卡走资。即使不用港卡,所有能满足对敲需求的地区都在CRS网络里面。\n\n今天我讲的是普通有钱人遇到的问题,明天我来讲一讲中国税局是如何对付企业家的。顶豪们早就在税局重点关注的名单上了,但同时也早就请律师和会计做好了各种架构,身份也移民了,早已不是中国税务居民,钱也不是通过地下钱庄,而是通过外资股东分红和一层层壳公司,用各种复杂的商业操作换走的,非常难被穿透。但是现在中国税局也进化出了一套方法,让这些人的海外收入缴税。明天再讲其中的门道。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981387300069134635","view_count":179390,"bookmark_count":1407,"created_at":1761234519000,"favorite_count":1113,"quote_count":5,"reply_count":40,"retweet_count":258,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1981387300069134635","full_text":"我最近找德勤做了点业务,终于搞清楚了CRS的原理,也终于明白了为什么美国明明不在CRS里面,但有些人用美国券商(如IBKR)还是会被追税。顺便也说一下地下钱庄换汇和税务的风险,以及中国人用美国银行卡+美资券商的相关问题。这绝对是全网相关议题最详细和深入的讨论!\n\nCRS是看不到你的交易明细的,只会看到你在CRS辖区内账户在几个时间点的资金额。当你的资金体量比较大的时候,你就可能被盯上。目前是各地税局分别负责,全国没有统一标准,但是金额门槛正在下沉。去年还只是查千万美金级别的户主,今年甚至有几十万美金的户主也中招。\n\n假如你有一张港卡,被CRS交换了,金额又达到了某个标准,那么税局就有可能会盯上你。这时候税局不是直接按照他们掌握的信息来收税,而是会要求你主动申报,要你把海外所有账户的银行流水、券商交易记录交出来,一般是看近3年的(有的甚至会要求看6年,但是你可以找会计和他们argue,有专业人士介入会好很多)。虽然税局本身看不到你的交易明细和流水,更看不到你美资券商的买卖记录,但问题是你敢不敢隐瞒呢?你要不要冒着犯罪的风险去造假流水呢?很多人不敢。这也是为什么很多人用美资券商还是会被收税。\n\n如果你是美国银行账户+美国券商,原则上不可能被CRS侦测到,中国税局也不会知道你在外国有账户,更不会找你索要信息。但在实操过程中,这样也存在很多问题。比如,中国人如何把大额资金弄到美国?大部分人的大额资金出境都要通过香港账户,因为香港是全世界对出入金监管最宽松的地方之一。\n\n美国对洗钱防范得特别严格。联邦法律规定一万美金以上的流动就要自动进入系统以备检查。所以出入金特别困难。如果外国人的账户长期有不同的外国人汇钱进来,很可能就会被封户。人在美国的外国人的账户会好很多,系统会备注你的信息,所以留学生收到国内很多汇款也一般不会出现问题。\n\n但是只要你人在美国半年以上,这就包括了所有留学生和在美工作的中国人,你的投资收益是要按照美国人的标准去交美国税的,这个税比中国的税还重。而且逃税的惩罚非常非常严重,美国税局IRS比中国要严厉很多。\n\n那能不能把钱汇给正在美国留学的孩子,然后再转去中国父母的美资券商账户呢?这样既不会被美国银行风控封户,也逃过了被CRS和中国税局的追踪,也不用交美国的税。答案是很难操作。因为法律规定,外国人在美国开的券商账户只接受同名账户的转账。当然你还是可以让子女再把钱一次性打到你的美国银行账户,再转入券商。因为是在美国国内亲属一次性打款的,不是很多个5万美金的境外汇款,这就不会引起风控。但是我必须说,我不是在鼓励大家逃税!\n\n但是这种方法不适合资金体量比较大的人操作,因为很难通过多个5万美金的蚂蚁搬家把钱汇出去。大部分人还是会选择地下钱庄来换钱,这又叫“对敲”。也就是你在中国往钱庄的中国境内账户打一笔钱,同时钱庄往你的境外账户打一笔等值的美金。都必须是即时到账,降低风险。大家都看到到账后,再马上打下一笔。这样敲几次,就把钱换走了。对敲被认为是最保险的,因为如果不是即时到账,谁都担心被骗。再说一遍,我不是在鼓励大家非法换汇。\n\n对敲一般只能用港卡,因为香港和中国一样,可以大额资金境内转账即时到账,而且不容易触发风控;而在美国就非常困难。一是美国即使是国内大额转账也不是即时到账,二是你的美国账户短时间收到好几笔大额款项,八成账户就会被封。\n\n但是港卡一旦有大额款项,通过CRS,中国税局就会知道你在海外有资金了。所以这就是为什么大部分有钱人走资以后,都会被CRS查到并要求补税。就是因为他们不得不用港卡走资。即使不用港卡,所有能满足对敲需求的地区都在CRS网络里面。\n\n今天我讲的是普通有钱人遇到的问题,明天我来讲一讲中国税局是如何对付企业家的。顶豪们早就在税局重点关注的名单上了,但同时也早就请律师和会计做好了各种架构,身份也移民了,早已不是中国税务居民,钱也不是通过地下钱庄,而是通过外资股东分红和一层层壳公司,用各种复杂的商业操作换走的,非常难被穿透。但是现在中国税局也进化出了一套方法,让这些人的海外收入缴税。明天再讲其中的门道。为什么你移民到了国外,依然可能会被中国税局追税?他们又是如何做到的。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,19],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamp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Don’t despair; America will come back and so will Berkshire shares.\n\n注意,这里用的是未来时,也就是巴菲特预计未来股价会大幅波动,而且会下跌50%。\n\n结合巴菲特在早前的股东大会说,他不希望预测时间,但他觉得重大的投资机会会在5年内出现;以及他说,没有人愿意持有正在奔向地狱的货币。我还在消化这里面的信息。之后再和大家细聊。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,105],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988253398010036397","view_count":46697,"bookmark_count":111,"created_at":1762871524000,"favorite_count":210,"quote_count":6,"reply_count":20,"retweet_count":29,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988253398010036397","full_text":"巴菲特给股东写了一封长信,并宣称之后会安静下来,和股东沟通的任务交给新CEO。他几乎没有评价现在的市场。但却单独起了一段只讲了一句话:我们的股价将会大幅波动,偶尔会下跌大约 50%,在现任管理层执掌公司的 60 年里,这种情况已经发生过三次。不要灰心,美国会再度振作,伯克希尔的股价也会随之回升。\n\n巴菲特的这封长信主要是在回顾人生,初看非常励志、非常暖心。但当我看到那句话时,我惊出一身冷汗。这仿佛是在大灾难之前给人们做好心理建设。\n\nOur stock price will move capriciously, occasionally falling 50% or so as has happened three times in 60 years under present management. Don’t despair; America will come back and so will Berkshire shares.\n\n注意,这里用的是未来时,也就是巴菲特预计未来股价会大幅波动,而且会下跌50%。\n\n巴菲特几十年来撰写的所有的股东信我都读过,他这些年的每一个年会和采访我都看过。巴菲特说话从来都很含蓄,从来不会完全说破。对于不熟悉他风格的人,乍听一下,他说的每一句话都没有什么深意。比如上面那句话,任何时候、任何公司的股价都可能大幅波动甚至腰斩,尤其是在一个很长的时间线上。但是当你听他说话多了以后,就会发现他有个习惯,每说一句话都要停下来想一想,每一句话都不是随口乱说的。他非常讲究在什么时间说什么话。比如在早前的几次股灾中,他会说要注意估值风险。这句话看似也是没有什么意义。投资什么时候不应该关心估值风险呢?但巴菲特只会在他觉得市场泡沫的时候这样说。在他要大举出手买货的时候,他会说宁愿花不便宜的价钱买好公司。\n\n巴菲特之所以是股神,并不是他能押中最赚钱的股票,而是他践行了他的名言:只有当潮水退去时,才知道谁在裸泳。\n\n结合巴菲特在早前的股东大会上的说法,他不希望预测时间,但他觉得重大的投资机会会在5年内出现;以及他说,没有人愿意持有正在奔向地狱的货币。我还在消化这里面的信息。之后再和大家细聊。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[9,93],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"945607507510038528","name":"Pathfinder","screen_name":"Pathusa","indices":[0,8]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Pathusa","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988242829651608061","view_count":1979,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1762869005000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1987933646767136949","full_text":"@Pathusa Circle有两个致命问题。盈利高度依赖国债收益率,跟coinbase签订了无法解约的卖身契。Circle除非找到新的增长点,才有大爆发的潜力。现在这个价位还不够安全。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"945607507510038528","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987933646767136949","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-13","value":0,"startTime":1762905600000,"endTime":1762992000000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-14","value":51316,"startTime":1762992000000,"endTime":1763078400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,140],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988986827848798543","view_count":33,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763046388000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988986827848798543","full_text":"巴菲特曾经赞扬过中国对加密行业的管制。其实中国政府做得非常差,漏洞到处都是。我认为支付宝和微信出入金加密货币,应该立刻封号。这已经成为电信诈骗利用的漏洞。目前英美的汇丰银行、摩根大通才真正走在了风控的前列,基本上离岸账户(非开户行所在地居民的账号)在加密货币出入金就会被终身封户。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,143],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988993507542069645","view_count":26,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763047980000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988993507542069645","full_text":"中国应效法美国,向境外汇款超过1万美金,必须合规审查,没有备案的加密货币交易,或境外账户的买卖,终身封户(美国叫做debank)。境内用户也必须要在交易所报备个人社会信用信息才能交易。中国的国际汇款和加密货币出入金既没和个人征信绑定,违规也不封卡、封微信,政府不作为,电诈才有可乘之机!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1988893869212139873","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/J7x0x5DgHO","expanded":"https://twitter.com/ipaulcanada/status/1988893869212139873","display":"x.com/ipaulcanada/st…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989012531592196460","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763052516000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989012531592196460","full_text":"做空的前提是赚钱而不是赌气。21年卖房买美股,25年再低价买回来,然后超低利息贷给银行,套钱出来买黄金。生娃生三个,每胎拿补贴。黄金不变现,加上银行贷款是负债,千万富翁白嫖低保。银行要完成社融数据,心甘情愿被你薅羊毛。这才是在中国生活的最高境界。那些不生孩子,不买房的,都在给你打工。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,142],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1988893869212139873","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/J7x0x5DgHO","expanded":"https://twitter.com/ipaulcanada/status/1988893869212139873","display":"x.com/ipaulcanada/st…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989012279996871062","view_count":43,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763052456000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989012279996871062","full_text":"做空的前提是赚钱而不是赌气。21年卖房买美股,25年再低价买回来,然后超低利息贷给银行,套钱出来买黄金。生娃生三个,每胎拿补贴。黄金不变现,加上银行贷款是负债,千万富翁白嫖低保。银行要完成社融数据,心甘情愿被你薅羊毛。这才是在中国生活的最高境界。那些不生孩子,不买房,都是在给你打工。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,140],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989015555748294766","view_count":42911,"bookmark_count":60,"created_at":1763053237000,"favorite_count":238,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":16,"retweet_count":21,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989015555748294766","full_text":"大家记得,牛市让你赚小钱,熊市才让你发大财。牛市中大家都在赚钱,你只能保证不掉队,或者缓慢爬坡。熊市里大家都不赚钱,但你把握住了机会,就会一举跨越阶级。所以强者永远不抱怨这里经济不好,也不羡慕那里大环境更好。顶级投资者,包括股神巴菲特,往往在牛市里表现平平,但熊市一来,一飞冲天。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1820104162715246592","name":"malaimo","screen_name":"0rain4fall","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"0rain4fall","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989017760803008630","view_count":8303,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1763053762000,"favorite_count":18,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1988930609809695067","full_text":"@0rain4fall 叶文洁是自己按的。首先叶文洁有那个本事,才有资格去按那个按钮。你若不是叶文洁,就忍着吧。即使你是,按了以后也要再等400年。人生像油条,要想成熟先煎熬。而且话说回来。有的人真可悲,绝望的时候宁可选择毁灭,也不去信靠能带来救赎的耶稣基督。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1820104162715246592","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1988930609809695067","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-15","value":36439,"startTime":1763078400000,"endTime":1763164800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,14],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","quoted_status_id_str":"1985737463823011847","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/xiBsvWdxPC","expanded":"https://twitter.com/realtaoray/status/1985737463823011847","display":"x.com/realtaoray/sta…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989127805507105041","view_count":683,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763079999000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989127805507105041","full_text":"我这个空单的含金量还在上升!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,84],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989134466900808016","view_count":33951,"bookmark_count":19,"created_at":1763081587000,"favorite_count":57,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":13,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989134466900808016","full_text":"何同学进军英文油管。大有成为华人第一YouTuber的驾驶。短短几个视频,已经超越百万订阅,单个视频播放量也在百万上下。我觉得他的视频是挺有意思,比飓风影音好看太多了。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,47],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989183690363249058","view_count":128,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763093323000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989183690363249058","full_text":"大空头Michael Burry的例子告诉我们:所谓的人生发财靠康波,其实是,坑你一波又一波。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,61],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"realTaoRay","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989125269731655997","view_count":1677,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763079395000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","conversation_id_str":"1989015555748294766","full_text":"我说的不是美股,美股还在牛市里,虽然要居安思危。我说的是中国。我看到网上很多绝望的声音,甚至有人说要叶文洁按电钮之类的话。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1333407168054386688","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989015555748294766","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-16","value":0,"startTime":1763164800000,"endTime":1763251200000,"tweets":[]}]},"interactions":{"users":[{"created_at":1662646932000,"uid":"1567880920505683970","id":"1567880920505683970","screen_name":"Comic_sofi01","name":"Jo 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