Get live statistics and analysis of Gary ∑: 's profile on X / Twitter Archetype analysis The Analyst Gary ∑ is a deep thinker and data-driven crypto enthusiast who loves to unravel complex concepts and share actionable insights. With a knack for detailed analysis, he turns complicated blockchain and crypto news into digestible guides and tools. A self-proclaimed chief intern at Mango Labs, Gary lives at the intersection of information and innovation.
🔥 Roast For a ‘chief intern,’ Gary sure never acts like one—his obsessive data dives and atlas-level knowledge make him the human equivalent of that overachieving spreadsheet nobody asked for but secretly envies. Maybe take a break before blockchain knowledge becomes your full-time identity?
⚡️ Nice achievement Gary’s crowning achievement is crafting the widely referenced 'Farcaster百大名人录,' a go-to directory in the Farcaster ecosystem that cements his role as an indispensable curator and analyst in crypto circles.
🌟 Life's purpose Gary's life purpose is to simplify the overwhelming world of cryptocurrency, making it accessible and understandable for newcomers and veterans alike, empowering them to make informed decisions in a rapidly evolving digital landscape.
💬 Values and Beliefs He values clarity, education, and community-driven growth, believing that transparent and well-analyzed information forms the backbone of responsible investing and technological progress.
💪 Strength His greatest strength lies in his analytical mindset and ability to distill complex crypto trends into practical guides, building credibility through consistent, data-backed insights and resource sharing.
🫣 Weakness Sometimes, Gary’s intense focus on detail and technicality can intimidate casual followers or make his content less approachable for beginners who crave more high-level simplification.
⚡️ Growth audience tips To grow his audience on X, Gary should blend his deep insights with engaging storytelling—think approachable threads and interactive Q&As tailored to crypto newbies. Incorporating more visual aids like infographics or short explainer videos will boost shareability and attract wider attention.
💁 Bonus Gary has an impressive tweet history of over 4,300 tweets and actively curates useful tools and resources for the Farcaster ecosystem, positioning himself as a go-to knowledge source in the niche crypto space.
Most engaged tweets of Gary ∑:People with Analyst archetype Explore Related Archetypes If you enjoy the analyst profiles, you might also like these personality types:
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Clanker🎩🎩》\n\nBase 上有两大铲子:一是Virtual,二是Clanker。\n\n前者是 AI agent 平台,已经出现了近一年,最近大水漫灌Base,最近 $VIRTUAL 持续上涨超1B;\n\n后者是 Farcaster 上的发帖即发币AI agent工具,出身草莽,刚诞生20天,龙头meme $CLANKER 一路上涨,最近稍有回调——二者上均诞生了无数千倍暴富神话。\n\n关于Virtual,可以看 @cutepandaweb3 老师的这篇:\nhttps://t.co/Ar2AEF0W6J\n\n下面,让我们深入研究 Clanker:\n\n一、Clanker 101🎩🎩\n\n在 Farcaster 上艾特 Clanker 、说清代币名称、ticker、头图就能免费让Clanker 在 Base 上加一个起始市值约为 30,000 美元 Uniswap 池子(门槛是 Farcaster 账户 Neynar 评分要足够高,意味着新人很难发币)\n\n官方网站是 https://t.co/7SWKxqaqmI,上面能查看所有已经部署的代币。(也可以在这儿看:https://t.co/SXXCdHfWQn,后续各个客户端都会陆续出现各种查看面板,基本等效)\n\n与PumpFun在绑定曲线期间收取 1% 的交易费 + 2 Sols 上 Raydium 费不同,Clanker 没有绑定曲线,而是从 Uni v3 收取 1% 的手续费作为收入:40% 给发币的人,60%给 Clanker 团队——这个分成比例可能会变,详情看官方文档:https://t.co/0c4nsmQ2U2\n\n二、Pumpfun vs Clanker🎩🎩\n\n1.机制:\nClanker = Cast to Pumpfun (Farcaster 上的发帖行为叫 cast)\n\n2.收入:\nPumpFun 10 个月内收入大致 3.6 亿美元,Clanker 20 天内收入大致 700 万美元。\n注:Clanker 代币总 MC 不到 200M,总交易量大约 750M,一共不到10万人参与交易。\n\n3.发币:\nPumpFun 总共发了 400 万个币,每日新增 1%;Clanker 总共发大约 5000个币,每日新增10%。\n\n4. TOP Coin:\nPumpFun:$Pnut(1.1B) $GOAT(850M) $Chillguys(500M)\nClanker: $CLANKER(80M) $LUM(34M) $ANON(30M)\n\n注意:$CLANKER 是 Clanker 发出的第一个 meme 币,天然成为龙头,暂时没有官方赋能。\nLUM 是另一个机器人 Aether 艾特 Clanker 发出来的币,ANON 是有人匿名用 Anoncast 艾特 Clanker 发出来的币。\n\n5.Dune数据:\nClanker 官方:\nhttps://t.co/ZOxcCVgGMl\nClanker VS Pumpfun VS other(WOW/Ape.store/Grafun) :https://t.co/437CvC3CN5\nClanker 协议收入:\nhttps://t.co/qnyJvOCG3s\nClanker TOP Coin:\nhttps://t.co/WWMTB8iRXb\n\n三、ANON × Clanker🎩🎩\n\nAnoncast × Clanker = Anonfun\n\n最初只有 Anoncast,没有 Anonfun。后来团队将 Anoncast 的功能一分为二:一半还叫 Anoncast 让大家匿名发帖,另一半叫 Anonfun 让大家匿名发盘子。\n\n这二者的嫁接是让实名PVP的「Socialfi 游戏」退化回了匿名PVP 的「Gamefi游戏」—— 在 Base 上赌 Anonfun 和在 SOL 上找角度赌 Pumpfun 没有任何区别。\n\n一定要注意:匿名=无官方,借6wu就能在anoncast的推特金标账号上发盘子,可谓是没有任何门槛可言。\n\n具体规则可以看我写的这条推:\nhttps://t.co/pHmLquaMQo\n\n目前,Anonfun 发出来的盘子总 MC 为 3M。\n\nAnonfun Dune:\nhttps://t.co/7LtjALHj1z\n\n四、团队🎩🎩\n\n做 Clanker 的是一个匿名团队,叫 proxystudio,他们最近正在解决BOT抢跑问题。\n\n后续,他们还承诺增加给 Clanker 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教你如何把兜里一千刀变成上百万刀》\n\n@Cbb0fe 写过一系列这样的文章,教每个资金量的玩家怎么财富增长\n\n不赌土狗,不加杠杆,靠撸工作、撸项目、写推特致富\n\n总结翻译精简他七篇文章,去除广告成分:\n\n1k➡️10k\n10k➡️100k\n100k➡️300k\n300k➡️500k\n500k➡️1M\n1M➡️3M\n3M➡️more\n\n让我们潜入👇🧵 https://t.co/kmTggZeRId","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,174],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1884971244631789579","view_count":108165,"bookmark_count":50,"created_at":1738247140000,"favorite_count":167,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":43,"retweet_count":17,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1884971244631789579","full_text":"《也许295的SOL已经是顶?》\n\n1. 所有人都认为 SOL 的 ETF 会通过,都在等正式通过时 sell the news 浇给;\n\n2. ETH 通过了 ETF,也没啥人买;\n\n3. SOL 和 ETH 在 ETF 的视角下很像:买来的 SOL 和 ETH 都不能用来 P,只能用来囤——那既然要囤,为什么不囤大饼?\n\n4. 川普给 SOL 带来的曝光也许没有想象的高——人们只会记住川普币,而且不一定是正面印象……\n\n5. E 卫兵基本已经完全倒戈,场内SOL 买盘已经到头。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,171],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[{"indices":[1059,1064],"text":"ANON"}],"timestamps":[],"urls":[{"display_url":"x.com/cutepandaweb3/…","expanded_url":"https://x.com/cutepandaweb3/status/1862095490571215002","url":"https://t.co/Ar2AEF0W6J","indices":[239,262]},{"display_url":"clanker.world","expanded_url":"http://clanker.world","url":"https://t.co/7SWKxqaqmI","indices":[444,467]},{"display_url":"clank.fun","expanded_url":"https://clank.fun/","url":"https://t.co/SXXCdHfWQn","indices":[492,515]},{"display_url":"github.com/clanker-devco/…","expanded_url":"https://github.com/clanker-devco/DOCS?tab=readme-ov-file","url":"https://t.co/0c4nsmQ2U2","indices":[679,702]},{"display_url":"dune.com/clanker_protec…","expanded_url":"https://dune.com/clanker_protection_team/clnkr100kindex","url":"https://t.co/ZOxcCVgGMl","indices":[1222,1245]},{"display_url":"dune.com/clanker_protec…","expanded_url":"https://dune.com/clanker_protection_team/clanker-vs-others","url":"https://t.co/437CvC3CN5","indices":[1297,1320]},{"display_url":"dune.com/clanker_protec…","expanded_url":"https://dune.com/clanker_protection_team/clanker-fees","url":"https://t.co/qnyJvOCG3s","indices":[1335,1358]},{"display_url":"dune.com/clanker_protec…","expanded_url":"https://dune.com/clanker_protection_team/top-tokens","url":"https://t.co/WWMTB8iRXb","indices":[1377,1400]},{"display_url":"x.com/OTZGary/status…","expanded_url":"https://x.com/OTZGary/status/1862098431235551288","url":"https://t.co/pHmLquaMQo","indices":[1714,1737]},{"display_url":"dune.com/clanker_protec…","expanded_url":"https://dune.com/clanker_protection_team/anonfun-x-clanker","url":"https://t.co/7LtjALHj1z","indices":[1782,1805]},{"display_url":"warpcast.com/rainbow/0x474f…","expanded_url":"https://warpcast.com/rainbow/0x474fb260","url":"https://t.co/R0gruS2tjr","indices":[2191,2214]},{"display_url":"t.me/clanker_trench…","expanded_url":"https://t.me/clanker_trenches","url":"https://t.co/yOnPJRvYqi","indices":[2254,2277]},{"display_url":"t.me/SigmaBotPortal","expanded_url":"https://t.me/SigmaBotPortal","url":"https://t.co/DgdhrkFA3n","indices":[2278,2301]}],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1412347670245511183","name":"cutepanda","screen_name":"cutepandaweb3","indices":[217,231]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1862329006550655181","view_count":67836,"bookmark_count":406,"created_at":1732848810000,"favorite_count":367,"quote_count":15,"reply_count":40,"retweet_count":119,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1862329006550655181","full_text":"《🎩🎩一文读懂 Clanker🎩🎩》\n\nBase 上有两大铲子:一是Virtual,二是Clanker。\n\n前者是 AI agent 平台,已经出现了近一年,最近大水漫灌Base,最近 $VIRTUAL 持续上涨超1B;\n\n后者是 Farcaster 上的发帖即发币AI agent工具,出身草莽,刚诞生20天,龙头meme $CLANKER 一路上涨,最近稍有回调——二者上均诞生了无数千倍暴富神话。\n\n关于Virtual,可以看 @cutepandaweb3 老师的这篇:\nhttps://t.co/Ar2AEF0W6J\n\n下面,让我们深入研究 Clanker:\n\n一、Clanker 101🎩🎩\n\n在 Farcaster 上艾特 Clanker 、说清代币名称、ticker、头图就能免费让Clanker 在 Base 上加一个起始市值约为 30,000 美元 Uniswap 池子(门槛是 Farcaster 账户 Neynar 评分要足够高,意味着新人很难发币)\n\n官方网站是 https://t.co/7SWKxqaqmI,上面能查看所有已经部署的代币。(也可以在这儿看:https://t.co/SXXCdHfWQn,后续各个客户端都会陆续出现各种查看面板,基本等效)\n\n与PumpFun在绑定曲线期间收取 1% 的交易费 + 2 Sols 上 Raydium 费不同,Clanker 没有绑定曲线,而是从 Uni v3 收取 1% 的手续费作为收入:40% 给发币的人,60%给 Clanker 团队——这个分成比例可能会变,详情看官方文档:https://t.co/0c4nsmQ2U2\n\n二、Pumpfun vs Clanker🎩🎩\n\n1.机制:\nClanker = Cast to Pumpfun (Farcaster 上的发帖行为叫 cast)\n\n2.收入:\nPumpFun 10 个月内收入大致 3.6 亿美元,Clanker 20 天内收入大致 700 万美元。\n注:Clanker 代币总 MC 不到 200M,总交易量大约 750M,一共不到10万人参与交易。\n\n3.发币:\nPumpFun 总共发了 400 万个币,每日新增 1%;Clanker 总共发大约 5000个币,每日新增10%。\n\n4. 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2006\n\n有一天,我从徐家汇赶去机场,在美罗大厦前搜索出租车。一辆「大众」发现了我,非常专业地、径直地停在我的面前。这一停,便有了后面这个让我深感震撼的故事,像上了一堂生动的MBA案例课\n\n「去哪里……好的,机场。我在徐家汇就喜欢做美罗大厦的生意。这里我只做两个地方:美罗大厦,均瑶大厦。接到你之前,我在美罗大厦门口兜了两圈,终于被我看到你了!从写字楼里出来的,肯定去的不近……」\n\n「哦?你很有方法嘛!」我附和了一下。\n\n「做出租车司机,也要用科学的方法。」他说。\n\n我一愣,顿时很有些兴趣:「什么科学的方法?」\n\n「要懂得统计。我做过精确的计算,我每天要开17个小时的车,每小时成本34.4元……」\n\n「怎么算出来的?」我追问。\n\n「你算啊,我每天要交380元给公司,一天17小时,平均每小时固定成本约22元;油费210元左右,平均每小时12.4元油费。加起来是不是就是 34.4元?」我有些惊讶。我打了10年的车,第一次听到有出租车司机这么计算成本。以前的司机都和我说,每公里成本0.3元,另外每天交多少钱之类的。\n\n「成本是不能按公里算的,只能按时间算。我做过数据分析,每次载客之间的空驶时间平均为7分钟。如果上来一个起步价,10元,大概要开10分钟。也就 是每一个10元的客人要花17分钟的成本,也就是9.7元。不赚钱啊!如果说做浦东、杭州、青浦的客人是吃饭,做10元的客人连吃菜都算不上,只能算是撒 了些味精。」\n\n这位师傅听上去真不像出租车司机,倒像是一位成本核算师。「那你怎么办呢?」我更感兴趣了,继续问。\n\n「千万不能被客户拉了满街跑。要通过选择停车的地点、时间和客户,主动地决定你要去的地方。」我非常惊讶,这听上去很有意思。「有人说做出租车司机是靠运气吃饭的职业。我以为不是。你要站在客户的位置上,从客户的角度去思考。」这句话听上去非常专业,有点像很多商业管理培训老师说的「put yourself into others’ shoes(设身处地为别人着想)」。\n\n「给你举个例子,医院门口,一个拿着药的,一个拿着脸盆的,你带哪一个。」我想了想,说不知道。\n\n「你要带那个拿脸盆的。一般人小病小痛的到医院看一看,拿点药,不一定会去很远的医院。拿着脸盆打车的,那是出院的。住院哪有不死人的?今天二楼的谁 死了,明天三楼又死了一个。从医院出来的人通常会有重获新生的感觉。那天这个人说:走,去青浦。眼睛都不眨一下。你说他会打车到人民广场,再去坐青浦线吗?绝对不会!」\n\n我不由得开始佩服。\n\n「再给你举个例子。那天中午人民广场,好几个人在前面招手。一个年轻女子,拿着小包,刚买完东西。还有一对青年男女,一看就是逛街的。接下去是个里面穿绒衬衫、外面套羽绒服的男子,提着笔记本电脑。我看一个人只要3秒钟。我毫不犹豫地停在这个男子面前。这个男的上车后忍不住问,为什么你毫不犹豫地开到我面前?前面还有别人。我回答说,还有十几分钟就1点了。那个女孩子是中午溜出来买东西的,估计公司很近;那对男女是游客,没拿什么东西,不会去很远;你是出去办事的,拿着笔记本电脑,一看就是公务,这个时候出去,估计应该不会近。那个男的就说,你说对了,去宝山。」\n\n「那些在超市门口、地铁口打车,穿着睡衣的人可能去很远的地方吗?可能去机场吗?」\n\n有道理!我越听越有意思。\n\n「很多司机都抱怨,生意不好做啊,油价又涨了啊,都从别人身上找原因。我说,从别人身上找原因,你永远不能提高。从自己身上找找看,问题出在哪里。」这话听起来好熟,好像是「如果你不能改变世界,就改变你自己」。\n\n「有一次,在南丹路一个人拦车,去田林。后来又有一次,一个人在南丹路拦车,还是去田林。我就问,怎么你们从南丹路出来的人,很多都是去田林呢?人家说,在南丹路有一个公共汽车总站,我们都是坐公共汽车从浦东到这里,然后搭车去田林的。我恍然大悟。你看我们开过的这条路,没有写字楼,没有酒店,什么都没有,只有公共汽车站,在这里拦车的多半都是刚下公共汽车的,再选择一条最短路径打车,通常不会高于15元。」\n\n「所以,态度决定一切!」我听十几个总裁讲过这句话,第一次听出租车司机这么说。\n\n「要用科学的方法做生意。天天等在地铁口排队,怎么能赚到钱?要用知识武装自己。学习知识可以把一个人变成聪明的人,一个聪明的人学习知识可以变成很聪明的人。一个很聪明的人学习知识,可以变成天才。」\n\n「有一次一个人打车去火车站,问怎么走。他说这么这么走。我说慢,上高架,再这么这么走。他说,那就绕远了。我说,没关系,你经常走你有经验,你那么走50块,你按我的走法,等里程表50块了,我就翻表,多的算我的。最后,按我的路走,多走了4公里,快了25分钟,我只收了50块。乘客很高兴。这4公里对我来说就是1块多钱的油钱。我相当于用1块多钱买了25分钟。我一小时的成本34.4块,我多合算啊!」\n\n「在大众公司,一般一个司机三四千,好的大概5千左右。顶级的司机大概每月能有7千。全大众两万个司机,大概只有两三个每月能拿到8千以上。我就是这中间的一个。而且很稳定,基本不会有大的波动。」\n\n到此为止,我越来越佩服这个出租车司机。\n\n「我常常说,我是一个快乐的车夫。有人说,你赚的钱多,当然快乐。我对他们说,你们正好错了。是因为我有快乐、积极的心态,所以赚的钱多。」\n\n说得多好啊!\n\n「要懂得体味工作带给你的美。堵在人民广场的时候,很多司机抱怨,又堵车了!真是倒霉。千万不要这样,用心体会一下这个城市的美,外面有很多漂亮的女孩 子经过,非常现代的高楼大厦,虽然买不起,但是可以用欣赏的眼光去享受。开车去机场,看着两边的绿色,冬天是白色的,多美啊。再看看里程表,100多了,就更美了!每一样工作都有美丽的地方,我们要懂得体会。」\n\n「我10年前是强生公司的总教练,8年前在公司做过3个不同部门的部门经理。后来我不干了,一个月就三五千块,没意思,就主动来做司机。我愿意做一个快乐的车夫。哈哈哈哈。」\n\n到了机场,我给他留了一张名片,说:「你有没有兴趣这个星期五,到我办公室,给微软的员工讲一讲你怎么开出租车的?你就当打着表,60公里1小时,你讲多久,我就付你多少钱。」\n\n我迫不及待地在飞机上记录下这堂生动的MBA课","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,17],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"561829394","name":"超级siya人","screen_name":"siyahashkey","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"siyahashkey","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987705723913228468","view_count":93,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762740949000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1987700438242844889","full_text":"@siyahashkey 沙发学习","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"561829394","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987700438242844889","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[8,21],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1372876871990272000","name":"丰密","screen_name":"KuiGas","indices":[0,7]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"KuiGas","lang":"ja","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987800996035408168","view_count":68,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762763663000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1987800109766336870","full_text":"@KuiGas gas的使用决定人生的方向","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1372876871990272000","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987800109766336870","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,23],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1899739859084103680","name":"林晚晚的猫","screen_name":"linwanwan823","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"linwanwan823","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987854697999606109","view_count":755,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762776467000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1987774526672011639","full_text":"@linwanwan823 这个角度好啊,敏感","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1899739859084103680","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987774526672011639","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-12","value":142,"startTime":1762819200000,"endTime":1762905600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,117],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E5FIcxWw92","expanded_url":"https://x.com/otzgary/status/1988114872710922545/photo/1","id_str":"1988114803672694784","indices":[118,141],"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5cz4WWbQAAc6dR.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E5FIcxWw92","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":440,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":772,"width":1194,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":669},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":772,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":677,"h":772},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":386,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":772}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[{"display_url":"CharlieRose.com","expanded_url":"http://CharlieRose.com","url":"https://t.co/UngDEv31eq","indices":[2480,2503]}],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E5FIcxWw92","expanded_url":"https://x.com/otzgary/status/1988114872710922545/photo/1","id_str":"1988114803672694784","indices":[118,141],"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5cz4WWbQAAc6dR.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E5FIcxWw92","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":440,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":772,"width":1194,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":669},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":772,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":677,"h":772},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":386,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":772}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"quoted_status_id_str":"1988096559029145718","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/JJZol2wHGH","expanded":"https://twitter.com/0xBeyondLee/status/1988096559029145718","display":"x.com/0xBeyondLee/st…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988114872710922545","view_count":3919,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1762838497000,"favorite_count":14,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1988114872710922545","full_text":"致各位股东:\n\n我将不再撰写伯克希尔的年度报告,也不会在年度会议上滔滔不绝。用英国人的话说,我将“保持沉默”。\n\n算是吧。\n\n格雷格·阿贝尔将于年底接任。他是一位出色的管理者,一个不知疲倦的工作者,以及一个的坦诚沟通者。祝他任期长久。\n\n我会通过每年的感恩节致辞继续与你们以及我的孩子们谈论伯克希尔的情况。伯克希尔的个人股东们是一群非常特别的人,他们总是慷慨地与那些不如他们幸运的人分享自己的收益。我很享受与你们保持联系的机会。今年请允许我先回忆一下往事。之后,我会谈谈我伯克希尔股份的分配计划。最后,我会分享一些业务和个人方面的看法。\n\n************\n\n随着感恩节的临近,我为自己活到 95 岁感到既感恩又惊讶。年轻时,这样的结果看起来希望渺茫。早些时候,我差点就死了。\n\n那是 1938 年,当时奥马哈的市民认为当地的医院要么是天主教的,要么是新教的,这种分类在当时看来是很自然的。\n\n我们的家庭医生哈雷·霍茨是个友善的天主教徒,他上门看病时总是背着一个黑色的医药包。霍茨医生叫我“小船长”,每次上门看病收费也不高。1938 年我肚子疼得厉害,霍茨医生来了,探查一番后告诉我,第二天早上就会好的。\n\n随后他回家吃了晚饭,还打了会儿桥牌。不过,霍茨医生始终忘不了我那些有点古怪的症状,当晚晚些时候便把我送到了圣凯瑟琳医院,给我做了紧急阑尾切除手术。接下来的三周里,我感觉自己就像置身于修道院,也开始喜欢上了我的新“讲台”。我喜欢说话——没错,那时也是——修女们对我很友好。\n\n最妙的是,三年级的马德森老师让班上的30个同学每人给我写一封信。我大概把男生们的信都扔了,而女生们的信我却反复读了很多遍;住院也有好处嘛。\n\n我康复期间最开心的事——其实头一周情况还很危险——是我那亲爱的艾迪姨妈送我的一份礼物。她给我带来了一套看起来非常专业的指纹采集工具,我马上给照顾我的修女们都采集了指纹。(我可能是圣凯瑟琳医院里她们见过的第一个新教徒孩子,她们也不知道该对我有什么期待。)\n\n我的想法——当然完全是异想天开——是总有一天会有个修女犯了法,而联邦调查局会发现他们居然没有给修女们采集指纹。联邦调查局及其局长 J. 埃德加·胡佛在 20 世纪 30 年代已为美国人所敬仰,我想象着胡佛先生亲自来到奥马哈来查看我那珍贵的指纹收藏。我还幻想我和 J. 埃德加能迅速找出并逮捕那个失足的修女。全国性的声誉似乎唾手可得。\n\n显然,我的幻想从未实现。但颇具讽刺意味的是,几年后我才发现,当时我本应给 J. 埃德加本人采集指纹,因为他后来因滥用职权而身败名裂。\n\n嗯,那是 20 世纪 30 年代的奥马哈,那时我和其他小伙伴都渴望拥有一辆雪橇、一辆自行车、一副棒球手套和一辆电动火车。让我们来看看那个时代其他几个孩子,他们就住在附近,对我影响很大,但我很久都不知道他们的存在。\n\n我先从查理·芒格说起,他是我 64 年的好友。20 世纪 30 年代,查理就住在离我 1958 年起就一直居住的房子仅一个街区的地方。\n\n早些时候,我差点就和查理成为朋友了。查理比我大6岁半,1940 年夏天他在祖父的杂货店打工,每天工作10个小时挣2美元。(节俭是巴菲特家族的传统。)第二年我也在店里干过类似的工作,但直到1959年我才见到查理,那时他35岁,我28岁。\n\n二战服役结束后,查理从哈佛法学院毕业,然后永久定居在加利福尼亚。然而,查理却一直将自己在奥马哈的早年岁月视为人生的重要阶段。六十多年来,查理对我影响巨大,他是一位极好的老师,也是我保护有加的“大哥”。我们之间虽有分歧,但从无争执。他从不说“我早就跟你说过”。\n\n1958 年,我买了我的第一套也是唯一一套房子。当然,它在奥马哈,离我成长的地方(大致说来)约两英里,离我岳父母家不到两个街区,离巴菲特杂货店约六个街区,开车到我工作了 64年的办公楼只需 6 到 7 分钟。\n\n让我们来谈谈另一位奥马哈人斯坦·利普西。1968 年,斯坦将《奥马哈太阳报》(周报)卖给了伯克希尔,十年后应我的请求搬到了布法罗。当时伯克希尔旗下一家子公司拥有的《布法罗晚报》正与该市唯一的周日报纸的出版商——其早报竞争对手展开生死较量,而我们正节节败退。\n\n斯坦最终打造出了我们新的《星期日》产品,此后数年,我们这项原本每年都在大量亏损的投资,每年(税前)的回报率都超过了100%。在20世纪80年代初,这笔3300万美元的投资对伯克希尔来说是一笔重要的资金。\n\n斯坦在我家附近大约五个街区的地方长大。斯坦的一位邻居是小沃尔特·斯科特。沃尔特,您应该还记得,他在 1999 年将中美能源公司带到了伯克希尔。他还是伯克希尔的董事,直到 2021年去世,也是我的挚友。几十年来,沃尔特一直是内布拉斯加州的慈善领袖,奥马哈和整个州都留下了他深深的印记。\n\n沃尔特上了本森高中,我也原本打算去那所学校上学——直到 1942 年,我父亲出人意料地在国会竞选中击败了连任四届的对手。生活总是充满惊喜。\n\n等等,还有更多。\n\n1959 年,唐·基奥和他的年轻家庭住在离我家街对面、距离芒格家旧居约 100 码远的一所房子里。当时唐是一名咖啡推销员,但后来他成为了可口可乐公司的总裁,并且是伯克希尔公司的忠实董事。\n\n我认识唐的时候,他一年挣 12000 美元,而他和妻子米基还要抚养五个孩子,这些孩子都得上天主教学校(学费不菲)。\n\n我们两家很快成了挚友。唐来自爱荷华州西北部的一个农场,毕业于奥马哈市的克雷顿大学。早年,他娶了奥马哈姑娘米基。加入可口可乐公司后,唐很快就在全球声名远扬。\n\n1985 年,唐担任可口可乐公司总裁期间,公司推出了命运多舛的新可口可乐。唐发表了一次著名的演讲,向公众道歉,并重新推出了“老”可口可乐。这一转变发生在唐解释说,寄给“至高无上的白痴”的信件会迅速送到他的办公桌上之后。他的“撤回”演讲堪称经典,可在YouTube 上观看。他愉快地承认,实际上可口可乐产品属于公众而非公司。随后销量大幅上升。\n\n您可以在 https://t.co/UngDEv31eq 上观看唐的一次精彩访谈。(汤姆·墨菲和凯·格雷厄姆也有几段精彩的内容。)和查理·芒格一样,唐始终是个地道的中西部男孩,热情、友善,骨子里透着十足的美国味儿。\n\n最后,出生于印度并在那里长大的阿吉特·贾恩(Ajit Jain)以及即将成为我们首席执行官的加拿大人格雷格·阿贝尔(Greg Abel),在 20 世纪末都曾在奥马哈生活了数年。事实上,在 20世纪 90 年代,格雷格就住在离我仅几个街区远的法纳姆街(Farnam Street),不过当时我们从未谋面。\n\n难道奥马哈的水里有什么神奇的成分吗?\n\n************\n\n我十几岁时在华盛顿特区生活过几年(当时我父亲在国会任职),1954 年我在曼哈顿找到了一份我以为会干一辈子的工作。在那里,本·格雷厄姆和杰里·纽曼对我很好,我也结交了许多终生的朋友。纽约有着独特的魅力——至今依然如此。然而,仅仅一年半之后,在 1956 年,我还是回到了奥马哈,从此再也没有离开过。\n\n后来,我的三个孩子以及几个孙辈都在奥马哈长大。我的孩子们一直就读于公立学校(从同一所高中毕业,这所高中培养了我父亲(1921 届)、我的第一任妻子苏西(1950 届),还有对内布拉斯加家具商场的发展起到关键作用的查理、斯坦·利普西、厄夫和罗恩·布卢姆金,以及1923 届的杰克·林格瓦尔特,他创立了国民赔偿保险公司,并于 1967 年将其出售给伯克希尔,成为我们庞大的财产险业务的基础)。\n\n************\n\n我们国家有很多伟大的公司、伟大的学校、伟大的医疗机构,每个地方都有其独特的优势,也都有才华出众的人。但我感到非常幸运,能有幸结交许多一生的朋友,能遇到我的两位妻子,在公立学校接受良好的教育,年幼时就能结识许多有趣且友善的奥马哈成年人,还能在内布拉斯加州国民警卫队结识各种各样的朋友。总之,内布拉斯加州一直是我真正的家。\n\n回首往事,我觉得伯克希尔和我之所以能取得更好的成绩,很大程度上是因为我们扎根于奥马哈。如果我出生在其他地方,结果可能就大不一样了。美国的中心地带是出生、养家和创业的绝佳之地。我出生时纯属运气好,抽到了一根长得出奇的签。\n\n************\n\n现在来说说我的高龄。我的基因并没有给我带来什么好处——家族长寿纪录(当然,追溯得越久远,家族记录就越模糊)一直是 92 岁,直到我打破了这个纪录。不过,我有睿智、友善且尽职尽责的奥马哈医生,从哈雷·霍茨医生开始,一直到现在。至少有三次,我的生命是被离家不远的医生们挽救的。(不过,我已经不再给护士们按指纹了。95 岁的人可以有很多怪癖……但也有个限度。)\n\n************\n\n活到老寿星这把年纪,得有极大的运气,每天都要躲过香蕉皮、自然灾害、醉酒或分心的司机、雷击等等,诸如此类的危险。\n\n但幸运女神反复无常,而且——没有别的词能形容——极其不公平。在很多情况下,我们的领导人和富人得到的幸运远远超过了他们应得的份额——而这些幸运儿往往不愿承认这一点。有些豪门子弟一出生就获得了终身的经济保障,而其他人则在幼年时期就面临着地狱般的困境,甚至更糟的是,身患残疾,失去了我视为理所当然的一切。在世界上很多人口稠密的地区,我可能会过着悲惨的生活,而我的姐妹们则会过上更糟糕的日子。\n\n我于 1930 年出生在美国,健康、聪明、白人、男性。哇!感谢幸运女神。我的姐妹们和我一样聪明,性格还比我好,但她们的人生前景却大不相同。幸运女神在我人生的大部分时间里都眷顾着我,但她可没空去照顾那些九十多岁的人。幸运也是有极限的。\n\n时光老人却恰恰相反,随着我年岁渐长,他愈发觉得我有趣了。他战无不胜;对他而言,每个人最终都算在他的“胜者”名单上。当平衡感、视力、听力和记忆力都持续走下坡路时,你就知道时光老人就在附近了。\n\n我步入老年的时间较晚——衰老的开始因人而异——但一旦出现,就无法否认。\n\n令我惊讶的是,我总体感觉良好。尽管行动迟缓,阅读也愈发吃力,但我每周仍会在办公室工作五天,与出色的人们共事。偶尔,我会冒出一些有用的想法,或者有人向我们提出一些原本可能不会有的提议。由于伯克希尔的规模以及市场状况,好的想法不多——但并非没有。\n\n************\n\n然而,我出乎意料的长寿却给我的家庭以及我慈善目标的实现带来了重大且不可避免的影响。\n\n让我们来探究一下它们。\n\n接下来是什么\n\n我的孩子们都已超过正常退休年龄,分别为 72 岁、70 岁和 67 岁。指望他们三人——在很多方面都已达到巅峰——能像我一样延缓衰老,这显然是不切实际的。为了提高他们在我指定的受托人取代他们之前处理完我几乎全部遗产的可能性,我需要加快向他们三个基金会的生前赠与。我的孩子们现在在经验和智慧方面都处于巅峰,但还未步入老年。这段“蜜月期”不会永远持续下去。\n\n幸运的是,调整方向很容易执行。不过,还有一个额外的因素需要考虑:我希望在伯克希尔的股东们像我和查理那样对格雷格充满信心之前,保留相当数量的“A”类股。这种程度的信任应该不会太久。我的孩子们已经百分之百支持格雷格,伯克希尔的董事们也是如此。\n\n如今这三个孩子都已成熟,头脑聪明,精力充沛,且富有本能,足以支配一大笔财富。在我去世很久之后,他们仍能活跃于世,这将是他们的优势所在。如有必要,他们可以采取既具前瞻性又具应对性的策略来应对联邦税收政策或其他影响慈善事业的发展。他们很可能需要适应周围世界发生的巨大变化。死后遥控指挥向来成效不佳,而我从未有过这种冲动。\n\n幸运的是,三个孩子都从母亲那里遗传了显性基因。随着岁月的流逝,我也逐渐成为他们思考和行为的更好榜样。然而,我永远无法与他们的母亲相提并论。\n\n我的孩子们有三位候补监护人,以防出现任何意外死亡或残疾的情况。这三位候补监护人不分先后顺序,也不与任何特定的孩子绑定。他们都是杰出的人,对世事洞明。他们没有任何相互冲突的动机。\n\n我已向孩子们保证,他们无需创造奇迹,也无需惧怕失败或失望。这些都是不可避免的,我也经历过。他们只需在政府活动和/或私人慈善事业通常所取得的成就基础上有所进步即可,同时要认识到这些财富再分配的方式也存在不足之处。\n\n早些时候,我曾构想过种种宏伟的慈善计划。尽管我性格执拗,但这些计划最终都未能实现。在我漫长的人生中,我也目睹了政客们拙劣的财富转移、家族式的抉择,当然还有那些不称职或古怪的慈善家。\n\n如果我的孩子们能干得不错,他们可以肯定,我和他们的母亲都会感到高兴。他们的直觉很好,而且他们每个人都有多年的实践经历,起初只是很小的数目,后来逐渐增加到每年超过5亿美元。\n\n这三个人都喜欢长时间工作来帮助他人,只是方式各不相同。\n\n************\n\n我加快向子女基金会捐赠的步伐,这绝不是因为我对伯克希尔的前景有了任何改变的看法。格雷格·阿贝尔的表现远超我当初认为他应成为伯克希尔下一任首席执行官时对他的期望。他对我们的许多业务和人员的了解远胜于我,而且对于很多首席执行官都不曾考虑的问题,他也能很快掌握。无论您说的是一位首席执行官、一位管理顾问、一位学者,还是一位政府官员,我都想不出有谁能比格雷格更适合来管理您和我的储蓄。\n\n例如,格雷格对我们的财产和意外险业务的潜在收益和风险的了解,远胜于许多长期从事这一业务的高管。我希望他的健康状况能保持良好几十年。如果运气好,伯克希尔在接下来的一个世纪里只需要五六个首席执行官。尤其要避免那些一心想着 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413 人\n\n我就能达到 10000 followers\n\n朋友\n\n我该去哪里寻找你? https://t.co/TTyhhTpN0G","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,37],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988192647794803098","view_count":7665,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1762857040000,"favorite_count":25,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":27,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1988192647794803098","full_text":"20岁多岁的男人\n\n请给30岁以上的男人一些建议 \n\n主题可以是任何方面","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,42],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1328686769508732929","name":"解构师 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2006\n\n有一天,我从徐家汇赶去机场,在美罗大厦前搜索出租车。一辆「大众」发现了我,非常专业地、径直地停在我的面前。这一停,便有了后面这个让我深感震撼的故事,像上了一堂生动的MBA案例课\n\n「去哪里……好的,机场。我在徐家汇就喜欢做美罗大厦的生意。这里我只做两个地方:美罗大厦,均瑶大厦。接到你之前,我在美罗大厦门口兜了两圈,终于被我看到你了!从写字楼里出来的,肯定去的不近……」\n\n「哦?你很有方法嘛!」我附和了一下。\n\n「做出租车司机,也要用科学的方法。」他说。\n\n我一愣,顿时很有些兴趣:「什么科学的方法?」\n\n「要懂得统计。我做过精确的计算,我每天要开17个小时的车,每小时成本34.4元……」\n\n「怎么算出来的?」我追问。\n\n「你算啊,我每天要交380元给公司,一天17小时,平均每小时固定成本约22元;油费210元左右,平均每小时12.4元油费。加起来是不是就是 34.4元?」我有些惊讶。我打了10年的车,第一次听到有出租车司机这么计算成本。以前的司机都和我说,每公里成本0.3元,另外每天交多少钱之类的。\n\n「成本是不能按公里算的,只能按时间算。我做过数据分析,每次载客之间的空驶时间平均为7分钟。如果上来一个起步价,10元,大概要开10分钟。也就 是每一个10元的客人要花17分钟的成本,也就是9.7元。不赚钱啊!如果说做浦东、杭州、青浦的客人是吃饭,做10元的客人连吃菜都算不上,只能算是撒 了些味精。」\n\n这位师傅听上去真不像出租车司机,倒像是一位成本核算师。「那你怎么办呢?」我更感兴趣了,继续问。\n\n「千万不能被客户拉了满街跑。要通过选择停车的地点、时间和客户,主动地决定你要去的地方。」我非常惊讶,这听上去很有意思。「有人说做出租车司机是靠运气吃饭的职业。我以为不是。你要站在客户的位置上,从客户的角度去思考。」这句话听上去非常专业,有点像很多商业管理培训老师说的「put yourself into others’ shoes(设身处地为别人着想)」。\n\n「给你举个例子,医院门口,一个拿着药的,一个拿着脸盆的,你带哪一个。」我想了想,说不知道。\n\n「你要带那个拿脸盆的。一般人小病小痛的到医院看一看,拿点药,不一定会去很远的医院。拿着脸盆打车的,那是出院的。住院哪有不死人的?今天二楼的谁 死了,明天三楼又死了一个。从医院出来的人通常会有重获新生的感觉。那天这个人说:走,去青浦。眼睛都不眨一下。你说他会打车到人民广场,再去坐青浦线吗?绝对不会!」\n\n我不由得开始佩服。\n\n「再给你举个例子。那天中午人民广场,好几个人在前面招手。一个年轻女子,拿着小包,刚买完东西。还有一对青年男女,一看就是逛街的。接下去是个里面穿绒衬衫、外面套羽绒服的男子,提着笔记本电脑。我看一个人只要3秒钟。我毫不犹豫地停在这个男子面前。这个男的上车后忍不住问,为什么你毫不犹豫地开到我面前?前面还有别人。我回答说,还有十几分钟就1点了。那个女孩子是中午溜出来买东西的,估计公司很近;那对男女是游客,没拿什么东西,不会去很远;你是出去办事的,拿着笔记本电脑,一看就是公务,这个时候出去,估计应该不会近。那个男的就说,你说对了,去宝山。」\n\n「那些在超市门口、地铁口打车,穿着睡衣的人可能去很远的地方吗?可能去机场吗?」\n\n有道理!我越听越有意思。\n\n「很多司机都抱怨,生意不好做啊,油价又涨了啊,都从别人身上找原因。我说,从别人身上找原因,你永远不能提高。从自己身上找找看,问题出在哪里。」这话听起来好熟,好像是「如果你不能改变世界,就改变你自己」。\n\n「有一次,在南丹路一个人拦车,去田林。后来又有一次,一个人在南丹路拦车,还是去田林。我就问,怎么你们从南丹路出来的人,很多都是去田林呢?人家说,在南丹路有一个公共汽车总站,我们都是坐公共汽车从浦东到这里,然后搭车去田林的。我恍然大悟。你看我们开过的这条路,没有写字楼,没有酒店,什么都没有,只有公共汽车站,在这里拦车的多半都是刚下公共汽车的,再选择一条最短路径打车,通常不会高于15元。」\n\n「所以,态度决定一切!」我听十几个总裁讲过这句话,第一次听出租车司机这么说。\n\n「要用科学的方法做生意。天天等在地铁口排队,怎么能赚到钱?要用知识武装自己。学习知识可以把一个人变成聪明的人,一个聪明的人学习知识可以变成很聪明的人。一个很聪明的人学习知识,可以变成天才。」\n\n「有一次一个人打车去火车站,问怎么走。他说这么这么走。我说慢,上高架,再这么这么走。他说,那就绕远了。我说,没关系,你经常走你有经验,你那么走50块,你按我的走法,等里程表50块了,我就翻表,多的算我的。最后,按我的路走,多走了4公里,快了25分钟,我只收了50块。乘客很高兴。这4公里对我来说就是1块多钱的油钱。我相当于用1块多钱买了25分钟。我一小时的成本34.4块,我多合算啊!」\n\n「在大众公司,一般一个司机三四千,好的大概5千左右。顶级的司机大概每月能有7千。全大众两万个司机,大概只有两三个每月能拿到8千以上。我就是这中间的一个。而且很稳定,基本不会有大的波动。」\n\n到此为止,我越来越佩服这个出租车司机。\n\n「我常常说,我是一个快乐的车夫。有人说,你赚的钱多,当然快乐。我对他们说,你们正好错了。是因为我有快乐、积极的心态,所以赚的钱多。」\n\n说得多好啊!\n\n「要懂得体味工作带给你的美。堵在人民广场的时候,很多司机抱怨,又堵车了!真是倒霉。千万不要这样,用心体会一下这个城市的美,外面有很多漂亮的女孩 子经过,非常现代的高楼大厦,虽然买不起,但是可以用欣赏的眼光去享受。开车去机场,看着两边的绿色,冬天是白色的,多美啊。再看看里程表,100多了,就更美了!每一样工作都有美丽的地方,我们要懂得体会。」\n\n「我10年前是强生公司的总教练,8年前在公司做过3个不同部门的部门经理。后来我不干了,一个月就三五千块,没意思,就主动来做司机。我愿意做一个快乐的车夫。哈哈哈哈。」\n\n到了机场,我给他留了一张名片,说:「你有没有兴趣这个星期五,到我办公室,给微软的员工讲一讲你怎么开出租车的?你就当打着表,60公里1小时,你讲多久,我就付你多少钱。」\n\n我迫不及待地在飞机上记录下这堂生动的MBA课","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,17],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"561829394","name":"超级siya人","screen_name":"siyahashkey","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"siyahashkey","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987705723913228468","view_count":93,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762740949000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1987700438242844889","full_text":"@siyahashkey 沙发学习","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"561829394","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987700438242844889","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[8,21],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1372876871990272000","name":"丰密","screen_name":"KuiGas","indices":[0,7]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"KuiGas","lang":"ja","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987800996035408168","view_count":68,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762763663000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1987800109766336870","full_text":"@KuiGas gas的使用决定人生的方向","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1372876871990272000","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987800109766336870","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,23],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1899739859084103680","name":"林晚晚的猫","screen_name":"linwanwan823","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"linwanwan823","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987854697999606109","view_count":755,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762776467000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1987774526672011639","full_text":"@linwanwan823 这个角度好啊,敏感","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1899739859084103680","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987774526672011639","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-12","value":6,"startTime":1762819200000,"endTime":1762905600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,117],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E5FIcxWw92","expanded_url":"https://x.com/otzgary/status/1988114872710922545/photo/1","id_str":"1988114803672694784","indices":[118,141],"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5cz4WWbQAAc6dR.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E5FIcxWw92","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":440,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":772,"width":1194,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":669},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":772,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":677,"h":772},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":386,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":772}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[{"display_url":"CharlieRose.com","expanded_url":"http://CharlieRose.com","url":"https://t.co/UngDEv31eq","indices":[2480,2503]}],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E5FIcxWw92","expanded_url":"https://x.com/otzgary/status/1988114872710922545/photo/1","id_str":"1988114803672694784","indices":[118,141],"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5cz4WWbQAAc6dR.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E5FIcxWw92","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":440,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":772,"width":1194,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":669},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":772,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":677,"h":772},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":386,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":772}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"quoted_status_id_str":"1988096559029145718","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/JJZol2wHGH","expanded":"https://twitter.com/0xBeyondLee/status/1988096559029145718","display":"x.com/0xBeyondLee/st…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988114872710922545","view_count":3919,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1762838497000,"favorite_count":14,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1988114872710922545","full_text":"致各位股东:\n\n我将不再撰写伯克希尔的年度报告,也不会在年度会议上滔滔不绝。用英国人的话说,我将“保持沉默”。\n\n算是吧。\n\n格雷格·阿贝尔将于年底接任。他是一位出色的管理者,一个不知疲倦的工作者,以及一个的坦诚沟通者。祝他任期长久。\n\n我会通过每年的感恩节致辞继续与你们以及我的孩子们谈论伯克希尔的情况。伯克希尔的个人股东们是一群非常特别的人,他们总是慷慨地与那些不如他们幸运的人分享自己的收益。我很享受与你们保持联系的机会。今年请允许我先回忆一下往事。之后,我会谈谈我伯克希尔股份的分配计划。最后,我会分享一些业务和个人方面的看法。\n\n************\n\n随着感恩节的临近,我为自己活到 95 岁感到既感恩又惊讶。年轻时,这样的结果看起来希望渺茫。早些时候,我差点就死了。\n\n那是 1938 年,当时奥马哈的市民认为当地的医院要么是天主教的,要么是新教的,这种分类在当时看来是很自然的。\n\n我们的家庭医生哈雷·霍茨是个友善的天主教徒,他上门看病时总是背着一个黑色的医药包。霍茨医生叫我“小船长”,每次上门看病收费也不高。1938 年我肚子疼得厉害,霍茨医生来了,探查一番后告诉我,第二天早上就会好的。\n\n随后他回家吃了晚饭,还打了会儿桥牌。不过,霍茨医生始终忘不了我那些有点古怪的症状,当晚晚些时候便把我送到了圣凯瑟琳医院,给我做了紧急阑尾切除手术。接下来的三周里,我感觉自己就像置身于修道院,也开始喜欢上了我的新“讲台”。我喜欢说话——没错,那时也是——修女们对我很友好。\n\n最妙的是,三年级的马德森老师让班上的30个同学每人给我写一封信。我大概把男生们的信都扔了,而女生们的信我却反复读了很多遍;住院也有好处嘛。\n\n我康复期间最开心的事——其实头一周情况还很危险——是我那亲爱的艾迪姨妈送我的一份礼物。她给我带来了一套看起来非常专业的指纹采集工具,我马上给照顾我的修女们都采集了指纹。(我可能是圣凯瑟琳医院里她们见过的第一个新教徒孩子,她们也不知道该对我有什么期待。)\n\n我的想法——当然完全是异想天开——是总有一天会有个修女犯了法,而联邦调查局会发现他们居然没有给修女们采集指纹。联邦调查局及其局长 J. 埃德加·胡佛在 20 世纪 30 年代已为美国人所敬仰,我想象着胡佛先生亲自来到奥马哈来查看我那珍贵的指纹收藏。我还幻想我和 J. 埃德加能迅速找出并逮捕那个失足的修女。全国性的声誉似乎唾手可得。\n\n显然,我的幻想从未实现。但颇具讽刺意味的是,几年后我才发现,当时我本应给 J. 埃德加本人采集指纹,因为他后来因滥用职权而身败名裂。\n\n嗯,那是 20 世纪 30 年代的奥马哈,那时我和其他小伙伴都渴望拥有一辆雪橇、一辆自行车、一副棒球手套和一辆电动火车。让我们来看看那个时代其他几个孩子,他们就住在附近,对我影响很大,但我很久都不知道他们的存在。\n\n我先从查理·芒格说起,他是我 64 年的好友。20 世纪 30 年代,查理就住在离我 1958 年起就一直居住的房子仅一个街区的地方。\n\n早些时候,我差点就和查理成为朋友了。查理比我大6岁半,1940 年夏天他在祖父的杂货店打工,每天工作10个小时挣2美元。(节俭是巴菲特家族的传统。)第二年我也在店里干过类似的工作,但直到1959年我才见到查理,那时他35岁,我28岁。\n\n二战服役结束后,查理从哈佛法学院毕业,然后永久定居在加利福尼亚。然而,查理却一直将自己在奥马哈的早年岁月视为人生的重要阶段。六十多年来,查理对我影响巨大,他是一位极好的老师,也是我保护有加的“大哥”。我们之间虽有分歧,但从无争执。他从不说“我早就跟你说过”。\n\n1958 年,我买了我的第一套也是唯一一套房子。当然,它在奥马哈,离我成长的地方(大致说来)约两英里,离我岳父母家不到两个街区,离巴菲特杂货店约六个街区,开车到我工作了 64年的办公楼只需 6 到 7 分钟。\n\n让我们来谈谈另一位奥马哈人斯坦·利普西。1968 年,斯坦将《奥马哈太阳报》(周报)卖给了伯克希尔,十年后应我的请求搬到了布法罗。当时伯克希尔旗下一家子公司拥有的《布法罗晚报》正与该市唯一的周日报纸的出版商——其早报竞争对手展开生死较量,而我们正节节败退。\n\n斯坦最终打造出了我们新的《星期日》产品,此后数年,我们这项原本每年都在大量亏损的投资,每年(税前)的回报率都超过了100%。在20世纪80年代初,这笔3300万美元的投资对伯克希尔来说是一笔重要的资金。\n\n斯坦在我家附近大约五个街区的地方长大。斯坦的一位邻居是小沃尔特·斯科特。沃尔特,您应该还记得,他在 1999 年将中美能源公司带到了伯克希尔。他还是伯克希尔的董事,直到 2021年去世,也是我的挚友。几十年来,沃尔特一直是内布拉斯加州的慈善领袖,奥马哈和整个州都留下了他深深的印记。\n\n沃尔特上了本森高中,我也原本打算去那所学校上学——直到 1942 年,我父亲出人意料地在国会竞选中击败了连任四届的对手。生活总是充满惊喜。\n\n等等,还有更多。\n\n1959 年,唐·基奥和他的年轻家庭住在离我家街对面、距离芒格家旧居约 100 码远的一所房子里。当时唐是一名咖啡推销员,但后来他成为了可口可乐公司的总裁,并且是伯克希尔公司的忠实董事。\n\n我认识唐的时候,他一年挣 12000 美元,而他和妻子米基还要抚养五个孩子,这些孩子都得上天主教学校(学费不菲)。\n\n我们两家很快成了挚友。唐来自爱荷华州西北部的一个农场,毕业于奥马哈市的克雷顿大学。早年,他娶了奥马哈姑娘米基。加入可口可乐公司后,唐很快就在全球声名远扬。\n\n1985 年,唐担任可口可乐公司总裁期间,公司推出了命运多舛的新可口可乐。唐发表了一次著名的演讲,向公众道歉,并重新推出了“老”可口可乐。这一转变发生在唐解释说,寄给“至高无上的白痴”的信件会迅速送到他的办公桌上之后。他的“撤回”演讲堪称经典,可在YouTube 上观看。他愉快地承认,实际上可口可乐产品属于公众而非公司。随后销量大幅上升。\n\n您可以在 https://t.co/UngDEv31eq 上观看唐的一次精彩访谈。(汤姆·墨菲和凯·格雷厄姆也有几段精彩的内容。)和查理·芒格一样,唐始终是个地道的中西部男孩,热情、友善,骨子里透着十足的美国味儿。\n\n最后,出生于印度并在那里长大的阿吉特·贾恩(Ajit Jain)以及即将成为我们首席执行官的加拿大人格雷格·阿贝尔(Greg Abel),在 20 世纪末都曾在奥马哈生活了数年。事实上,在 20世纪 90 年代,格雷格就住在离我仅几个街区远的法纳姆街(Farnam Street),不过当时我们从未谋面。\n\n难道奥马哈的水里有什么神奇的成分吗?\n\n************\n\n我十几岁时在华盛顿特区生活过几年(当时我父亲在国会任职),1954 年我在曼哈顿找到了一份我以为会干一辈子的工作。在那里,本·格雷厄姆和杰里·纽曼对我很好,我也结交了许多终生的朋友。纽约有着独特的魅力——至今依然如此。然而,仅仅一年半之后,在 1956 年,我还是回到了奥马哈,从此再也没有离开过。\n\n后来,我的三个孩子以及几个孙辈都在奥马哈长大。我的孩子们一直就读于公立学校(从同一所高中毕业,这所高中培养了我父亲(1921 届)、我的第一任妻子苏西(1950 届),还有对内布拉斯加家具商场的发展起到关键作用的查理、斯坦·利普西、厄夫和罗恩·布卢姆金,以及1923 届的杰克·林格瓦尔特,他创立了国民赔偿保险公司,并于 1967 年将其出售给伯克希尔,成为我们庞大的财产险业务的基础)。\n\n************\n\n我们国家有很多伟大的公司、伟大的学校、伟大的医疗机构,每个地方都有其独特的优势,也都有才华出众的人。但我感到非常幸运,能有幸结交许多一生的朋友,能遇到我的两位妻子,在公立学校接受良好的教育,年幼时就能结识许多有趣且友善的奥马哈成年人,还能在内布拉斯加州国民警卫队结识各种各样的朋友。总之,内布拉斯加州一直是我真正的家。\n\n回首往事,我觉得伯克希尔和我之所以能取得更好的成绩,很大程度上是因为我们扎根于奥马哈。如果我出生在其他地方,结果可能就大不一样了。美国的中心地带是出生、养家和创业的绝佳之地。我出生时纯属运气好,抽到了一根长得出奇的签。\n\n************\n\n现在来说说我的高龄。我的基因并没有给我带来什么好处——家族长寿纪录(当然,追溯得越久远,家族记录就越模糊)一直是 92 岁,直到我打破了这个纪录。不过,我有睿智、友善且尽职尽责的奥马哈医生,从哈雷·霍茨医生开始,一直到现在。至少有三次,我的生命是被离家不远的医生们挽救的。(不过,我已经不再给护士们按指纹了。95 岁的人可以有很多怪癖……但也有个限度。)\n\n************\n\n活到老寿星这把年纪,得有极大的运气,每天都要躲过香蕉皮、自然灾害、醉酒或分心的司机、雷击等等,诸如此类的危险。\n\n但幸运女神反复无常,而且——没有别的词能形容——极其不公平。在很多情况下,我们的领导人和富人得到的幸运远远超过了他们应得的份额——而这些幸运儿往往不愿承认这一点。有些豪门子弟一出生就获得了终身的经济保障,而其他人则在幼年时期就面临着地狱般的困境,甚至更糟的是,身患残疾,失去了我视为理所当然的一切。在世界上很多人口稠密的地区,我可能会过着悲惨的生活,而我的姐妹们则会过上更糟糕的日子。\n\n我于 1930 年出生在美国,健康、聪明、白人、男性。哇!感谢幸运女神。我的姐妹们和我一样聪明,性格还比我好,但她们的人生前景却大不相同。幸运女神在我人生的大部分时间里都眷顾着我,但她可没空去照顾那些九十多岁的人。幸运也是有极限的。\n\n时光老人却恰恰相反,随着我年岁渐长,他愈发觉得我有趣了。他战无不胜;对他而言,每个人最终都算在他的“胜者”名单上。当平衡感、视力、听力和记忆力都持续走下坡路时,你就知道时光老人就在附近了。\n\n我步入老年的时间较晚——衰老的开始因人而异——但一旦出现,就无法否认。\n\n令我惊讶的是,我总体感觉良好。尽管行动迟缓,阅读也愈发吃力,但我每周仍会在办公室工作五天,与出色的人们共事。偶尔,我会冒出一些有用的想法,或者有人向我们提出一些原本可能不会有的提议。由于伯克希尔的规模以及市场状况,好的想法不多——但并非没有。\n\n************\n\n然而,我出乎意料的长寿却给我的家庭以及我慈善目标的实现带来了重大且不可避免的影响。\n\n让我们来探究一下它们。\n\n接下来是什么\n\n我的孩子们都已超过正常退休年龄,分别为 72 岁、70 岁和 67 岁。指望他们三人——在很多方面都已达到巅峰——能像我一样延缓衰老,这显然是不切实际的。为了提高他们在我指定的受托人取代他们之前处理完我几乎全部遗产的可能性,我需要加快向他们三个基金会的生前赠与。我的孩子们现在在经验和智慧方面都处于巅峰,但还未步入老年。这段“蜜月期”不会永远持续下去。\n\n幸运的是,调整方向很容易执行。不过,还有一个额外的因素需要考虑:我希望在伯克希尔的股东们像我和查理那样对格雷格充满信心之前,保留相当数量的“A”类股。这种程度的信任应该不会太久。我的孩子们已经百分之百支持格雷格,伯克希尔的董事们也是如此。\n\n如今这三个孩子都已成熟,头脑聪明,精力充沛,且富有本能,足以支配一大笔财富。在我去世很久之后,他们仍能活跃于世,这将是他们的优势所在。如有必要,他们可以采取既具前瞻性又具应对性的策略来应对联邦税收政策或其他影响慈善事业的发展。他们很可能需要适应周围世界发生的巨大变化。死后遥控指挥向来成效不佳,而我从未有过这种冲动。\n\n幸运的是,三个孩子都从母亲那里遗传了显性基因。随着岁月的流逝,我也逐渐成为他们思考和行为的更好榜样。然而,我永远无法与他们的母亲相提并论。\n\n我的孩子们有三位候补监护人,以防出现任何意外死亡或残疾的情况。这三位候补监护人不分先后顺序,也不与任何特定的孩子绑定。他们都是杰出的人,对世事洞明。他们没有任何相互冲突的动机。\n\n我已向孩子们保证,他们无需创造奇迹,也无需惧怕失败或失望。这些都是不可避免的,我也经历过。他们只需在政府活动和/或私人慈善事业通常所取得的成就基础上有所进步即可,同时要认识到这些财富再分配的方式也存在不足之处。\n\n早些时候,我曾构想过种种宏伟的慈善计划。尽管我性格执拗,但这些计划最终都未能实现。在我漫长的人生中,我也目睹了政客们拙劣的财富转移、家族式的抉择,当然还有那些不称职或古怪的慈善家。\n\n如果我的孩子们能干得不错,他们可以肯定,我和他们的母亲都会感到高兴。他们的直觉很好,而且他们每个人都有多年的实践经历,起初只是很小的数目,后来逐渐增加到每年超过5亿美元。\n\n这三个人都喜欢长时间工作来帮助他人,只是方式各不相同。\n\n************\n\n我加快向子女基金会捐赠的步伐,这绝不是因为我对伯克希尔的前景有了任何改变的看法。格雷格·阿贝尔的表现远超我当初认为他应成为伯克希尔下一任首席执行官时对他的期望。他对我们的许多业务和人员的了解远胜于我,而且对于很多首席执行官都不曾考虑的问题,他也能很快掌握。无论您说的是一位首席执行官、一位管理顾问、一位学者,还是一位政府官员,我都想不出有谁能比格雷格更适合来管理您和我的储蓄。\n\n例如,格雷格对我们的财产和意外险业务的潜在收益和风险的了解,远胜于许多长期从事这一业务的高管。我希望他的健康状况能保持良好几十年。如果运气好,伯克希尔在接下来的一个世纪里只需要五六个首席执行官。尤其要避免那些一心想着 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413 人\n\n我就能达到 10000 followers\n\n朋友\n\n我该去哪里寻找你? https://t.co/TTyhhTpN0G","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,37],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988192647794803098","view_count":7665,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1762857040000,"favorite_count":25,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":27,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1988192647794803098","full_text":"20岁多岁的男人\n\n请给30岁以上的男人一些建议 \n\n主题可以是任何方面","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,42],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1328686769508732929","name":"解构师 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2006\n\n有一天,我从徐家汇赶去机场,在美罗大厦前搜索出租车。一辆「大众」发现了我,非常专业地、径直地停在我的面前。这一停,便有了后面这个让我深感震撼的故事,像上了一堂生动的MBA案例课\n\n「去哪里……好的,机场。我在徐家汇就喜欢做美罗大厦的生意。这里我只做两个地方:美罗大厦,均瑶大厦。接到你之前,我在美罗大厦门口兜了两圈,终于被我看到你了!从写字楼里出来的,肯定去的不近……」\n\n「哦?你很有方法嘛!」我附和了一下。\n\n「做出租车司机,也要用科学的方法。」他说。\n\n我一愣,顿时很有些兴趣:「什么科学的方法?」\n\n「要懂得统计。我做过精确的计算,我每天要开17个小时的车,每小时成本34.4元……」\n\n「怎么算出来的?」我追问。\n\n「你算啊,我每天要交380元给公司,一天17小时,平均每小时固定成本约22元;油费210元左右,平均每小时12.4元油费。加起来是不是就是 34.4元?」我有些惊讶。我打了10年的车,第一次听到有出租车司机这么计算成本。以前的司机都和我说,每公里成本0.3元,另外每天交多少钱之类的。\n\n「成本是不能按公里算的,只能按时间算。我做过数据分析,每次载客之间的空驶时间平均为7分钟。如果上来一个起步价,10元,大概要开10分钟。也就 是每一个10元的客人要花17分钟的成本,也就是9.7元。不赚钱啊!如果说做浦东、杭州、青浦的客人是吃饭,做10元的客人连吃菜都算不上,只能算是撒 了些味精。」\n\n这位师傅听上去真不像出租车司机,倒像是一位成本核算师。「那你怎么办呢?」我更感兴趣了,继续问。\n\n「千万不能被客户拉了满街跑。要通过选择停车的地点、时间和客户,主动地决定你要去的地方。」我非常惊讶,这听上去很有意思。「有人说做出租车司机是靠运气吃饭的职业。我以为不是。你要站在客户的位置上,从客户的角度去思考。」这句话听上去非常专业,有点像很多商业管理培训老师说的「put yourself into others’ shoes(设身处地为别人着想)」。\n\n「给你举个例子,医院门口,一个拿着药的,一个拿着脸盆的,你带哪一个。」我想了想,说不知道。\n\n「你要带那个拿脸盆的。一般人小病小痛的到医院看一看,拿点药,不一定会去很远的医院。拿着脸盆打车的,那是出院的。住院哪有不死人的?今天二楼的谁 死了,明天三楼又死了一个。从医院出来的人通常会有重获新生的感觉。那天这个人说:走,去青浦。眼睛都不眨一下。你说他会打车到人民广场,再去坐青浦线吗?绝对不会!」\n\n我不由得开始佩服。\n\n「再给你举个例子。那天中午人民广场,好几个人在前面招手。一个年轻女子,拿着小包,刚买完东西。还有一对青年男女,一看就是逛街的。接下去是个里面穿绒衬衫、外面套羽绒服的男子,提着笔记本电脑。我看一个人只要3秒钟。我毫不犹豫地停在这个男子面前。这个男的上车后忍不住问,为什么你毫不犹豫地开到我面前?前面还有别人。我回答说,还有十几分钟就1点了。那个女孩子是中午溜出来买东西的,估计公司很近;那对男女是游客,没拿什么东西,不会去很远;你是出去办事的,拿着笔记本电脑,一看就是公务,这个时候出去,估计应该不会近。那个男的就说,你说对了,去宝山。」\n\n「那些在超市门口、地铁口打车,穿着睡衣的人可能去很远的地方吗?可能去机场吗?」\n\n有道理!我越听越有意思。\n\n「很多司机都抱怨,生意不好做啊,油价又涨了啊,都从别人身上找原因。我说,从别人身上找原因,你永远不能提高。从自己身上找找看,问题出在哪里。」这话听起来好熟,好像是「如果你不能改变世界,就改变你自己」。\n\n「有一次,在南丹路一个人拦车,去田林。后来又有一次,一个人在南丹路拦车,还是去田林。我就问,怎么你们从南丹路出来的人,很多都是去田林呢?人家说,在南丹路有一个公共汽车总站,我们都是坐公共汽车从浦东到这里,然后搭车去田林的。我恍然大悟。你看我们开过的这条路,没有写字楼,没有酒店,什么都没有,只有公共汽车站,在这里拦车的多半都是刚下公共汽车的,再选择一条最短路径打车,通常不会高于15元。」\n\n「所以,态度决定一切!」我听十几个总裁讲过这句话,第一次听出租车司机这么说。\n\n「要用科学的方法做生意。天天等在地铁口排队,怎么能赚到钱?要用知识武装自己。学习知识可以把一个人变成聪明的人,一个聪明的人学习知识可以变成很聪明的人。一个很聪明的人学习知识,可以变成天才。」\n\n「有一次一个人打车去火车站,问怎么走。他说这么这么走。我说慢,上高架,再这么这么走。他说,那就绕远了。我说,没关系,你经常走你有经验,你那么走50块,你按我的走法,等里程表50块了,我就翻表,多的算我的。最后,按我的路走,多走了4公里,快了25分钟,我只收了50块。乘客很高兴。这4公里对我来说就是1块多钱的油钱。我相当于用1块多钱买了25分钟。我一小时的成本34.4块,我多合算啊!」\n\n「在大众公司,一般一个司机三四千,好的大概5千左右。顶级的司机大概每月能有7千。全大众两万个司机,大概只有两三个每月能拿到8千以上。我就是这中间的一个。而且很稳定,基本不会有大的波动。」\n\n到此为止,我越来越佩服这个出租车司机。\n\n「我常常说,我是一个快乐的车夫。有人说,你赚的钱多,当然快乐。我对他们说,你们正好错了。是因为我有快乐、积极的心态,所以赚的钱多。」\n\n说得多好啊!\n\n「要懂得体味工作带给你的美。堵在人民广场的时候,很多司机抱怨,又堵车了!真是倒霉。千万不要这样,用心体会一下这个城市的美,外面有很多漂亮的女孩 子经过,非常现代的高楼大厦,虽然买不起,但是可以用欣赏的眼光去享受。开车去机场,看着两边的绿色,冬天是白色的,多美啊。再看看里程表,100多了,就更美了!每一样工作都有美丽的地方,我们要懂得体会。」\n\n「我10年前是强生公司的总教练,8年前在公司做过3个不同部门的部门经理。后来我不干了,一个月就三五千块,没意思,就主动来做司机。我愿意做一个快乐的车夫。哈哈哈哈。」\n\n到了机场,我给他留了一张名片,说:「你有没有兴趣这个星期五,到我办公室,给微软的员工讲一讲你怎么开出租车的?你就当打着表,60公里1小时,你讲多久,我就付你多少钱。」\n\n我迫不及待地在飞机上记录下这堂生动的MBA课","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,17],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"561829394","name":"超级siya人","screen_name":"siyahashkey","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"siyahashkey","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987705723913228468","view_count":93,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762740949000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1987700438242844889","full_text":"@siyahashkey 沙发学习","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"561829394","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987700438242844889","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[8,21],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1372876871990272000","name":"丰密","screen_name":"KuiGas","indices":[0,7]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"KuiGas","lang":"ja","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987800996035408168","view_count":68,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762763663000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1987800109766336870","full_text":"@KuiGas gas的使用决定人生的方向","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1372876871990272000","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987800109766336870","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,23],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1899739859084103680","name":"林晚晚的猫","screen_name":"linwanwan823","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"linwanwan823","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987854697999606109","view_count":755,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762776467000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1987774526672011639","full_text":"@linwanwan823 这个角度好啊,敏感","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1899739859084103680","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987774526672011639","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-12","value":2,"startTime":1762819200000,"endTime":1762905600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,117],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E5FIcxWw92","expanded_url":"https://x.com/otzgary/status/1988114872710922545/photo/1","id_str":"1988114803672694784","indices":[118,141],"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5cz4WWbQAAc6dR.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E5FIcxWw92","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":440,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":772,"width":1194,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":669},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":772,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":677,"h":772},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":386,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":772}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[{"display_url":"CharlieRose.com","expanded_url":"http://CharlieRose.com","url":"https://t.co/UngDEv31eq","indices":[2480,2503]}],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E5FIcxWw92","expanded_url":"https://x.com/otzgary/status/1988114872710922545/photo/1","id_str":"1988114803672694784","indices":[118,141],"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5cz4WWbQAAc6dR.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E5FIcxWw92","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":440,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":772,"width":1194,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":669},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":772,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":677,"h":772},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":386,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":772}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"quoted_status_id_str":"1988096559029145718","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/JJZol2wHGH","expanded":"https://twitter.com/0xBeyondLee/status/1988096559029145718","display":"x.com/0xBeyondLee/st…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988114872710922545","view_count":3919,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1762838497000,"favorite_count":14,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1988114872710922545","full_text":"致各位股东:\n\n我将不再撰写伯克希尔的年度报告,也不会在年度会议上滔滔不绝。用英国人的话说,我将“保持沉默”。\n\n算是吧。\n\n格雷格·阿贝尔将于年底接任。他是一位出色的管理者,一个不知疲倦的工作者,以及一个的坦诚沟通者。祝他任期长久。\n\n我会通过每年的感恩节致辞继续与你们以及我的孩子们谈论伯克希尔的情况。伯克希尔的个人股东们是一群非常特别的人,他们总是慷慨地与那些不如他们幸运的人分享自己的收益。我很享受与你们保持联系的机会。今年请允许我先回忆一下往事。之后,我会谈谈我伯克希尔股份的分配计划。最后,我会分享一些业务和个人方面的看法。\n\n************\n\n随着感恩节的临近,我为自己活到 95 岁感到既感恩又惊讶。年轻时,这样的结果看起来希望渺茫。早些时候,我差点就死了。\n\n那是 1938 年,当时奥马哈的市民认为当地的医院要么是天主教的,要么是新教的,这种分类在当时看来是很自然的。\n\n我们的家庭医生哈雷·霍茨是个友善的天主教徒,他上门看病时总是背着一个黑色的医药包。霍茨医生叫我“小船长”,每次上门看病收费也不高。1938 年我肚子疼得厉害,霍茨医生来了,探查一番后告诉我,第二天早上就会好的。\n\n随后他回家吃了晚饭,还打了会儿桥牌。不过,霍茨医生始终忘不了我那些有点古怪的症状,当晚晚些时候便把我送到了圣凯瑟琳医院,给我做了紧急阑尾切除手术。接下来的三周里,我感觉自己就像置身于修道院,也开始喜欢上了我的新“讲台”。我喜欢说话——没错,那时也是——修女们对我很友好。\n\n最妙的是,三年级的马德森老师让班上的30个同学每人给我写一封信。我大概把男生们的信都扔了,而女生们的信我却反复读了很多遍;住院也有好处嘛。\n\n我康复期间最开心的事——其实头一周情况还很危险——是我那亲爱的艾迪姨妈送我的一份礼物。她给我带来了一套看起来非常专业的指纹采集工具,我马上给照顾我的修女们都采集了指纹。(我可能是圣凯瑟琳医院里她们见过的第一个新教徒孩子,她们也不知道该对我有什么期待。)\n\n我的想法——当然完全是异想天开——是总有一天会有个修女犯了法,而联邦调查局会发现他们居然没有给修女们采集指纹。联邦调查局及其局长 J. 埃德加·胡佛在 20 世纪 30 年代已为美国人所敬仰,我想象着胡佛先生亲自来到奥马哈来查看我那珍贵的指纹收藏。我还幻想我和 J. 埃德加能迅速找出并逮捕那个失足的修女。全国性的声誉似乎唾手可得。\n\n显然,我的幻想从未实现。但颇具讽刺意味的是,几年后我才发现,当时我本应给 J. 埃德加本人采集指纹,因为他后来因滥用职权而身败名裂。\n\n嗯,那是 20 世纪 30 年代的奥马哈,那时我和其他小伙伴都渴望拥有一辆雪橇、一辆自行车、一副棒球手套和一辆电动火车。让我们来看看那个时代其他几个孩子,他们就住在附近,对我影响很大,但我很久都不知道他们的存在。\n\n我先从查理·芒格说起,他是我 64 年的好友。20 世纪 30 年代,查理就住在离我 1958 年起就一直居住的房子仅一个街区的地方。\n\n早些时候,我差点就和查理成为朋友了。查理比我大6岁半,1940 年夏天他在祖父的杂货店打工,每天工作10个小时挣2美元。(节俭是巴菲特家族的传统。)第二年我也在店里干过类似的工作,但直到1959年我才见到查理,那时他35岁,我28岁。\n\n二战服役结束后,查理从哈佛法学院毕业,然后永久定居在加利福尼亚。然而,查理却一直将自己在奥马哈的早年岁月视为人生的重要阶段。六十多年来,查理对我影响巨大,他是一位极好的老师,也是我保护有加的“大哥”。我们之间虽有分歧,但从无争执。他从不说“我早就跟你说过”。\n\n1958 年,我买了我的第一套也是唯一一套房子。当然,它在奥马哈,离我成长的地方(大致说来)约两英里,离我岳父母家不到两个街区,离巴菲特杂货店约六个街区,开车到我工作了 64年的办公楼只需 6 到 7 分钟。\n\n让我们来谈谈另一位奥马哈人斯坦·利普西。1968 年,斯坦将《奥马哈太阳报》(周报)卖给了伯克希尔,十年后应我的请求搬到了布法罗。当时伯克希尔旗下一家子公司拥有的《布法罗晚报》正与该市唯一的周日报纸的出版商——其早报竞争对手展开生死较量,而我们正节节败退。\n\n斯坦最终打造出了我们新的《星期日》产品,此后数年,我们这项原本每年都在大量亏损的投资,每年(税前)的回报率都超过了100%。在20世纪80年代初,这笔3300万美元的投资对伯克希尔来说是一笔重要的资金。\n\n斯坦在我家附近大约五个街区的地方长大。斯坦的一位邻居是小沃尔特·斯科特。沃尔特,您应该还记得,他在 1999 年将中美能源公司带到了伯克希尔。他还是伯克希尔的董事,直到 2021年去世,也是我的挚友。几十年来,沃尔特一直是内布拉斯加州的慈善领袖,奥马哈和整个州都留下了他深深的印记。\n\n沃尔特上了本森高中,我也原本打算去那所学校上学——直到 1942 年,我父亲出人意料地在国会竞选中击败了连任四届的对手。生活总是充满惊喜。\n\n等等,还有更多。\n\n1959 年,唐·基奥和他的年轻家庭住在离我家街对面、距离芒格家旧居约 100 码远的一所房子里。当时唐是一名咖啡推销员,但后来他成为了可口可乐公司的总裁,并且是伯克希尔公司的忠实董事。\n\n我认识唐的时候,他一年挣 12000 美元,而他和妻子米基还要抚养五个孩子,这些孩子都得上天主教学校(学费不菲)。\n\n我们两家很快成了挚友。唐来自爱荷华州西北部的一个农场,毕业于奥马哈市的克雷顿大学。早年,他娶了奥马哈姑娘米基。加入可口可乐公司后,唐很快就在全球声名远扬。\n\n1985 年,唐担任可口可乐公司总裁期间,公司推出了命运多舛的新可口可乐。唐发表了一次著名的演讲,向公众道歉,并重新推出了“老”可口可乐。这一转变发生在唐解释说,寄给“至高无上的白痴”的信件会迅速送到他的办公桌上之后。他的“撤回”演讲堪称经典,可在YouTube 上观看。他愉快地承认,实际上可口可乐产品属于公众而非公司。随后销量大幅上升。\n\n您可以在 https://t.co/UngDEv31eq 上观看唐的一次精彩访谈。(汤姆·墨菲和凯·格雷厄姆也有几段精彩的内容。)和查理·芒格一样,唐始终是个地道的中西部男孩,热情、友善,骨子里透着十足的美国味儿。\n\n最后,出生于印度并在那里长大的阿吉特·贾恩(Ajit Jain)以及即将成为我们首席执行官的加拿大人格雷格·阿贝尔(Greg Abel),在 20 世纪末都曾在奥马哈生活了数年。事实上,在 20世纪 90 年代,格雷格就住在离我仅几个街区远的法纳姆街(Farnam Street),不过当时我们从未谋面。\n\n难道奥马哈的水里有什么神奇的成分吗?\n\n************\n\n我十几岁时在华盛顿特区生活过几年(当时我父亲在国会任职),1954 年我在曼哈顿找到了一份我以为会干一辈子的工作。在那里,本·格雷厄姆和杰里·纽曼对我很好,我也结交了许多终生的朋友。纽约有着独特的魅力——至今依然如此。然而,仅仅一年半之后,在 1956 年,我还是回到了奥马哈,从此再也没有离开过。\n\n后来,我的三个孩子以及几个孙辈都在奥马哈长大。我的孩子们一直就读于公立学校(从同一所高中毕业,这所高中培养了我父亲(1921 届)、我的第一任妻子苏西(1950 届),还有对内布拉斯加家具商场的发展起到关键作用的查理、斯坦·利普西、厄夫和罗恩·布卢姆金,以及1923 届的杰克·林格瓦尔特,他创立了国民赔偿保险公司,并于 1967 年将其出售给伯克希尔,成为我们庞大的财产险业务的基础)。\n\n************\n\n我们国家有很多伟大的公司、伟大的学校、伟大的医疗机构,每个地方都有其独特的优势,也都有才华出众的人。但我感到非常幸运,能有幸结交许多一生的朋友,能遇到我的两位妻子,在公立学校接受良好的教育,年幼时就能结识许多有趣且友善的奥马哈成年人,还能在内布拉斯加州国民警卫队结识各种各样的朋友。总之,内布拉斯加州一直是我真正的家。\n\n回首往事,我觉得伯克希尔和我之所以能取得更好的成绩,很大程度上是因为我们扎根于奥马哈。如果我出生在其他地方,结果可能就大不一样了。美国的中心地带是出生、养家和创业的绝佳之地。我出生时纯属运气好,抽到了一根长得出奇的签。\n\n************\n\n现在来说说我的高龄。我的基因并没有给我带来什么好处——家族长寿纪录(当然,追溯得越久远,家族记录就越模糊)一直是 92 岁,直到我打破了这个纪录。不过,我有睿智、友善且尽职尽责的奥马哈医生,从哈雷·霍茨医生开始,一直到现在。至少有三次,我的生命是被离家不远的医生们挽救的。(不过,我已经不再给护士们按指纹了。95 岁的人可以有很多怪癖……但也有个限度。)\n\n************\n\n活到老寿星这把年纪,得有极大的运气,每天都要躲过香蕉皮、自然灾害、醉酒或分心的司机、雷击等等,诸如此类的危险。\n\n但幸运女神反复无常,而且——没有别的词能形容——极其不公平。在很多情况下,我们的领导人和富人得到的幸运远远超过了他们应得的份额——而这些幸运儿往往不愿承认这一点。有些豪门子弟一出生就获得了终身的经济保障,而其他人则在幼年时期就面临着地狱般的困境,甚至更糟的是,身患残疾,失去了我视为理所当然的一切。在世界上很多人口稠密的地区,我可能会过着悲惨的生活,而我的姐妹们则会过上更糟糕的日子。\n\n我于 1930 年出生在美国,健康、聪明、白人、男性。哇!感谢幸运女神。我的姐妹们和我一样聪明,性格还比我好,但她们的人生前景却大不相同。幸运女神在我人生的大部分时间里都眷顾着我,但她可没空去照顾那些九十多岁的人。幸运也是有极限的。\n\n时光老人却恰恰相反,随着我年岁渐长,他愈发觉得我有趣了。他战无不胜;对他而言,每个人最终都算在他的“胜者”名单上。当平衡感、视力、听力和记忆力都持续走下坡路时,你就知道时光老人就在附近了。\n\n我步入老年的时间较晚——衰老的开始因人而异——但一旦出现,就无法否认。\n\n令我惊讶的是,我总体感觉良好。尽管行动迟缓,阅读也愈发吃力,但我每周仍会在办公室工作五天,与出色的人们共事。偶尔,我会冒出一些有用的想法,或者有人向我们提出一些原本可能不会有的提议。由于伯克希尔的规模以及市场状况,好的想法不多——但并非没有。\n\n************\n\n然而,我出乎意料的长寿却给我的家庭以及我慈善目标的实现带来了重大且不可避免的影响。\n\n让我们来探究一下它们。\n\n接下来是什么\n\n我的孩子们都已超过正常退休年龄,分别为 72 岁、70 岁和 67 岁。指望他们三人——在很多方面都已达到巅峰——能像我一样延缓衰老,这显然是不切实际的。为了提高他们在我指定的受托人取代他们之前处理完我几乎全部遗产的可能性,我需要加快向他们三个基金会的生前赠与。我的孩子们现在在经验和智慧方面都处于巅峰,但还未步入老年。这段“蜜月期”不会永远持续下去。\n\n幸运的是,调整方向很容易执行。不过,还有一个额外的因素需要考虑:我希望在伯克希尔的股东们像我和查理那样对格雷格充满信心之前,保留相当数量的“A”类股。这种程度的信任应该不会太久。我的孩子们已经百分之百支持格雷格,伯克希尔的董事们也是如此。\n\n如今这三个孩子都已成熟,头脑聪明,精力充沛,且富有本能,足以支配一大笔财富。在我去世很久之后,他们仍能活跃于世,这将是他们的优势所在。如有必要,他们可以采取既具前瞻性又具应对性的策略来应对联邦税收政策或其他影响慈善事业的发展。他们很可能需要适应周围世界发生的巨大变化。死后遥控指挥向来成效不佳,而我从未有过这种冲动。\n\n幸运的是,三个孩子都从母亲那里遗传了显性基因。随着岁月的流逝,我也逐渐成为他们思考和行为的更好榜样。然而,我永远无法与他们的母亲相提并论。\n\n我的孩子们有三位候补监护人,以防出现任何意外死亡或残疾的情况。这三位候补监护人不分先后顺序,也不与任何特定的孩子绑定。他们都是杰出的人,对世事洞明。他们没有任何相互冲突的动机。\n\n我已向孩子们保证,他们无需创造奇迹,也无需惧怕失败或失望。这些都是不可避免的,我也经历过。他们只需在政府活动和/或私人慈善事业通常所取得的成就基础上有所进步即可,同时要认识到这些财富再分配的方式也存在不足之处。\n\n早些时候,我曾构想过种种宏伟的慈善计划。尽管我性格执拗,但这些计划最终都未能实现。在我漫长的人生中,我也目睹了政客们拙劣的财富转移、家族式的抉择,当然还有那些不称职或古怪的慈善家。\n\n如果我的孩子们能干得不错,他们可以肯定,我和他们的母亲都会感到高兴。他们的直觉很好,而且他们每个人都有多年的实践经历,起初只是很小的数目,后来逐渐增加到每年超过5亿美元。\n\n这三个人都喜欢长时间工作来帮助他人,只是方式各不相同。\n\n************\n\n我加快向子女基金会捐赠的步伐,这绝不是因为我对伯克希尔的前景有了任何改变的看法。格雷格·阿贝尔的表现远超我当初认为他应成为伯克希尔下一任首席执行官时对他的期望。他对我们的许多业务和人员的了解远胜于我,而且对于很多首席执行官都不曾考虑的问题,他也能很快掌握。无论您说的是一位首席执行官、一位管理顾问、一位学者,还是一位政府官员,我都想不出有谁能比格雷格更适合来管理您和我的储蓄。\n\n例如,格雷格对我们的财产和意外险业务的潜在收益和风险的了解,远胜于许多长期从事这一业务的高管。我希望他的健康状况能保持良好几十年。如果运气好,伯克希尔在接下来的一个世纪里只需要五六个首席执行官。尤其要避免那些一心想着 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413 人\n\n我就能达到 10000 followers\n\n朋友\n\n我该去哪里寻找你? https://t.co/TTyhhTpN0G","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,37],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988192647794803098","view_count":7665,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1762857040000,"favorite_count":25,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":27,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1988192647794803098","full_text":"20岁多岁的男人\n\n请给30岁以上的男人一些建议 \n\n主题可以是任何方面","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,42],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1328686769508732929","name":"解构师 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2006\n\n有一天,我从徐家汇赶去机场,在美罗大厦前搜索出租车。一辆「大众」发现了我,非常专业地、径直地停在我的面前。这一停,便有了后面这个让我深感震撼的故事,像上了一堂生动的MBA案例课\n\n「去哪里……好的,机场。我在徐家汇就喜欢做美罗大厦的生意。这里我只做两个地方:美罗大厦,均瑶大厦。接到你之前,我在美罗大厦门口兜了两圈,终于被我看到你了!从写字楼里出来的,肯定去的不近……」\n\n「哦?你很有方法嘛!」我附和了一下。\n\n「做出租车司机,也要用科学的方法。」他说。\n\n我一愣,顿时很有些兴趣:「什么科学的方法?」\n\n「要懂得统计。我做过精确的计算,我每天要开17个小时的车,每小时成本34.4元……」\n\n「怎么算出来的?」我追问。\n\n「你算啊,我每天要交380元给公司,一天17小时,平均每小时固定成本约22元;油费210元左右,平均每小时12.4元油费。加起来是不是就是 34.4元?」我有些惊讶。我打了10年的车,第一次听到有出租车司机这么计算成本。以前的司机都和我说,每公里成本0.3元,另外每天交多少钱之类的。\n\n「成本是不能按公里算的,只能按时间算。我做过数据分析,每次载客之间的空驶时间平均为7分钟。如果上来一个起步价,10元,大概要开10分钟。也就 是每一个10元的客人要花17分钟的成本,也就是9.7元。不赚钱啊!如果说做浦东、杭州、青浦的客人是吃饭,做10元的客人连吃菜都算不上,只能算是撒 了些味精。」\n\n这位师傅听上去真不像出租车司机,倒像是一位成本核算师。「那你怎么办呢?」我更感兴趣了,继续问。\n\n「千万不能被客户拉了满街跑。要通过选择停车的地点、时间和客户,主动地决定你要去的地方。」我非常惊讶,这听上去很有意思。「有人说做出租车司机是靠运气吃饭的职业。我以为不是。你要站在客户的位置上,从客户的角度去思考。」这句话听上去非常专业,有点像很多商业管理培训老师说的「put yourself into others’ shoes(设身处地为别人着想)」。\n\n「给你举个例子,医院门口,一个拿着药的,一个拿着脸盆的,你带哪一个。」我想了想,说不知道。\n\n「你要带那个拿脸盆的。一般人小病小痛的到医院看一看,拿点药,不一定会去很远的医院。拿着脸盆打车的,那是出院的。住院哪有不死人的?今天二楼的谁 死了,明天三楼又死了一个。从医院出来的人通常会有重获新生的感觉。那天这个人说:走,去青浦。眼睛都不眨一下。你说他会打车到人民广场,再去坐青浦线吗?绝对不会!」\n\n我不由得开始佩服。\n\n「再给你举个例子。那天中午人民广场,好几个人在前面招手。一个年轻女子,拿着小包,刚买完东西。还有一对青年男女,一看就是逛街的。接下去是个里面穿绒衬衫、外面套羽绒服的男子,提着笔记本电脑。我看一个人只要3秒钟。我毫不犹豫地停在这个男子面前。这个男的上车后忍不住问,为什么你毫不犹豫地开到我面前?前面还有别人。我回答说,还有十几分钟就1点了。那个女孩子是中午溜出来买东西的,估计公司很近;那对男女是游客,没拿什么东西,不会去很远;你是出去办事的,拿着笔记本电脑,一看就是公务,这个时候出去,估计应该不会近。那个男的就说,你说对了,去宝山。」\n\n「那些在超市门口、地铁口打车,穿着睡衣的人可能去很远的地方吗?可能去机场吗?」\n\n有道理!我越听越有意思。\n\n「很多司机都抱怨,生意不好做啊,油价又涨了啊,都从别人身上找原因。我说,从别人身上找原因,你永远不能提高。从自己身上找找看,问题出在哪里。」这话听起来好熟,好像是「如果你不能改变世界,就改变你自己」。\n\n「有一次,在南丹路一个人拦车,去田林。后来又有一次,一个人在南丹路拦车,还是去田林。我就问,怎么你们从南丹路出来的人,很多都是去田林呢?人家说,在南丹路有一个公共汽车总站,我们都是坐公共汽车从浦东到这里,然后搭车去田林的。我恍然大悟。你看我们开过的这条路,没有写字楼,没有酒店,什么都没有,只有公共汽车站,在这里拦车的多半都是刚下公共汽车的,再选择一条最短路径打车,通常不会高于15元。」\n\n「所以,态度决定一切!」我听十几个总裁讲过这句话,第一次听出租车司机这么说。\n\n「要用科学的方法做生意。天天等在地铁口排队,怎么能赚到钱?要用知识武装自己。学习知识可以把一个人变成聪明的人,一个聪明的人学习知识可以变成很聪明的人。一个很聪明的人学习知识,可以变成天才。」\n\n「有一次一个人打车去火车站,问怎么走。他说这么这么走。我说慢,上高架,再这么这么走。他说,那就绕远了。我说,没关系,你经常走你有经验,你那么走50块,你按我的走法,等里程表50块了,我就翻表,多的算我的。最后,按我的路走,多走了4公里,快了25分钟,我只收了50块。乘客很高兴。这4公里对我来说就是1块多钱的油钱。我相当于用1块多钱买了25分钟。我一小时的成本34.4块,我多合算啊!」\n\n「在大众公司,一般一个司机三四千,好的大概5千左右。顶级的司机大概每月能有7千。全大众两万个司机,大概只有两三个每月能拿到8千以上。我就是这中间的一个。而且很稳定,基本不会有大的波动。」\n\n到此为止,我越来越佩服这个出租车司机。\n\n「我常常说,我是一个快乐的车夫。有人说,你赚的钱多,当然快乐。我对他们说,你们正好错了。是因为我有快乐、积极的心态,所以赚的钱多。」\n\n说得多好啊!\n\n「要懂得体味工作带给你的美。堵在人民广场的时候,很多司机抱怨,又堵车了!真是倒霉。千万不要这样,用心体会一下这个城市的美,外面有很多漂亮的女孩 子经过,非常现代的高楼大厦,虽然买不起,但是可以用欣赏的眼光去享受。开车去机场,看着两边的绿色,冬天是白色的,多美啊。再看看里程表,100多了,就更美了!每一样工作都有美丽的地方,我们要懂得体会。」\n\n「我10年前是强生公司的总教练,8年前在公司做过3个不同部门的部门经理。后来我不干了,一个月就三五千块,没意思,就主动来做司机。我愿意做一个快乐的车夫。哈哈哈哈。」\n\n到了机场,我给他留了一张名片,说:「你有没有兴趣这个星期五,到我办公室,给微软的员工讲一讲你怎么开出租车的?你就当打着表,60公里1小时,你讲多久,我就付你多少钱。」\n\n我迫不及待地在飞机上记录下这堂生动的MBA课","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,17],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"561829394","name":"超级siya人","screen_name":"siyahashkey","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"siyahashkey","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987705723913228468","view_count":93,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762740949000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1987700438242844889","full_text":"@siyahashkey 沙发学习","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"561829394","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987700438242844889","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[8,21],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1372876871990272000","name":"丰密","screen_name":"KuiGas","indices":[0,7]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"KuiGas","lang":"ja","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987800996035408168","view_count":68,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762763663000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1987800109766336870","full_text":"@KuiGas gas的使用决定人生的方向","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1372876871990272000","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987800109766336870","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,23],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1899739859084103680","name":"林晚晚的猫","screen_name":"linwanwan823","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"linwanwan823","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987854697999606109","view_count":755,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762776467000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1987774526672011639","full_text":"@linwanwan823 这个角度好啊,敏感","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1899739859084103680","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987774526672011639","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-12","value":165,"startTime":1762819200000,"endTime":1762905600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,117],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E5FIcxWw92","expanded_url":"https://x.com/otzgary/status/1988114872710922545/photo/1","id_str":"1988114803672694784","indices":[118,141],"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5cz4WWbQAAc6dR.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E5FIcxWw92","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":440,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":772,"width":1194,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":669},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":772,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":677,"h":772},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":386,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":772}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[{"display_url":"CharlieRose.com","expanded_url":"http://CharlieRose.com","url":"https://t.co/UngDEv31eq","indices":[2480,2503]}],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E5FIcxWw92","expanded_url":"https://x.com/otzgary/status/1988114872710922545/photo/1","id_str":"1988114803672694784","indices":[118,141],"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5cz4WWbQAAc6dR.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E5FIcxWw92","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":440,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":772,"width":1194,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":669},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":772,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":677,"h":772},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":386,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":772}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"quoted_status_id_str":"1988096559029145718","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/JJZol2wHGH","expanded":"https://twitter.com/0xBeyondLee/status/1988096559029145718","display":"x.com/0xBeyondLee/st…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988114872710922545","view_count":3919,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1762838497000,"favorite_count":14,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1988114872710922545","full_text":"致各位股东:\n\n我将不再撰写伯克希尔的年度报告,也不会在年度会议上滔滔不绝。用英国人的话说,我将“保持沉默”。\n\n算是吧。\n\n格雷格·阿贝尔将于年底接任。他是一位出色的管理者,一个不知疲倦的工作者,以及一个的坦诚沟通者。祝他任期长久。\n\n我会通过每年的感恩节致辞继续与你们以及我的孩子们谈论伯克希尔的情况。伯克希尔的个人股东们是一群非常特别的人,他们总是慷慨地与那些不如他们幸运的人分享自己的收益。我很享受与你们保持联系的机会。今年请允许我先回忆一下往事。之后,我会谈谈我伯克希尔股份的分配计划。最后,我会分享一些业务和个人方面的看法。\n\n************\n\n随着感恩节的临近,我为自己活到 95 岁感到既感恩又惊讶。年轻时,这样的结果看起来希望渺茫。早些时候,我差点就死了。\n\n那是 1938 年,当时奥马哈的市民认为当地的医院要么是天主教的,要么是新教的,这种分类在当时看来是很自然的。\n\n我们的家庭医生哈雷·霍茨是个友善的天主教徒,他上门看病时总是背着一个黑色的医药包。霍茨医生叫我“小船长”,每次上门看病收费也不高。1938 年我肚子疼得厉害,霍茨医生来了,探查一番后告诉我,第二天早上就会好的。\n\n随后他回家吃了晚饭,还打了会儿桥牌。不过,霍茨医生始终忘不了我那些有点古怪的症状,当晚晚些时候便把我送到了圣凯瑟琳医院,给我做了紧急阑尾切除手术。接下来的三周里,我感觉自己就像置身于修道院,也开始喜欢上了我的新“讲台”。我喜欢说话——没错,那时也是——修女们对我很友好。\n\n最妙的是,三年级的马德森老师让班上的30个同学每人给我写一封信。我大概把男生们的信都扔了,而女生们的信我却反复读了很多遍;住院也有好处嘛。\n\n我康复期间最开心的事——其实头一周情况还很危险——是我那亲爱的艾迪姨妈送我的一份礼物。她给我带来了一套看起来非常专业的指纹采集工具,我马上给照顾我的修女们都采集了指纹。(我可能是圣凯瑟琳医院里她们见过的第一个新教徒孩子,她们也不知道该对我有什么期待。)\n\n我的想法——当然完全是异想天开——是总有一天会有个修女犯了法,而联邦调查局会发现他们居然没有给修女们采集指纹。联邦调查局及其局长 J. 埃德加·胡佛在 20 世纪 30 年代已为美国人所敬仰,我想象着胡佛先生亲自来到奥马哈来查看我那珍贵的指纹收藏。我还幻想我和 J. 埃德加能迅速找出并逮捕那个失足的修女。全国性的声誉似乎唾手可得。\n\n显然,我的幻想从未实现。但颇具讽刺意味的是,几年后我才发现,当时我本应给 J. 埃德加本人采集指纹,因为他后来因滥用职权而身败名裂。\n\n嗯,那是 20 世纪 30 年代的奥马哈,那时我和其他小伙伴都渴望拥有一辆雪橇、一辆自行车、一副棒球手套和一辆电动火车。让我们来看看那个时代其他几个孩子,他们就住在附近,对我影响很大,但我很久都不知道他们的存在。\n\n我先从查理·芒格说起,他是我 64 年的好友。20 世纪 30 年代,查理就住在离我 1958 年起就一直居住的房子仅一个街区的地方。\n\n早些时候,我差点就和查理成为朋友了。查理比我大6岁半,1940 年夏天他在祖父的杂货店打工,每天工作10个小时挣2美元。(节俭是巴菲特家族的传统。)第二年我也在店里干过类似的工作,但直到1959年我才见到查理,那时他35岁,我28岁。\n\n二战服役结束后,查理从哈佛法学院毕业,然后永久定居在加利福尼亚。然而,查理却一直将自己在奥马哈的早年岁月视为人生的重要阶段。六十多年来,查理对我影响巨大,他是一位极好的老师,也是我保护有加的“大哥”。我们之间虽有分歧,但从无争执。他从不说“我早就跟你说过”。\n\n1958 年,我买了我的第一套也是唯一一套房子。当然,它在奥马哈,离我成长的地方(大致说来)约两英里,离我岳父母家不到两个街区,离巴菲特杂货店约六个街区,开车到我工作了 64年的办公楼只需 6 到 7 分钟。\n\n让我们来谈谈另一位奥马哈人斯坦·利普西。1968 年,斯坦将《奥马哈太阳报》(周报)卖给了伯克希尔,十年后应我的请求搬到了布法罗。当时伯克希尔旗下一家子公司拥有的《布法罗晚报》正与该市唯一的周日报纸的出版商——其早报竞争对手展开生死较量,而我们正节节败退。\n\n斯坦最终打造出了我们新的《星期日》产品,此后数年,我们这项原本每年都在大量亏损的投资,每年(税前)的回报率都超过了100%。在20世纪80年代初,这笔3300万美元的投资对伯克希尔来说是一笔重要的资金。\n\n斯坦在我家附近大约五个街区的地方长大。斯坦的一位邻居是小沃尔特·斯科特。沃尔特,您应该还记得,他在 1999 年将中美能源公司带到了伯克希尔。他还是伯克希尔的董事,直到 2021年去世,也是我的挚友。几十年来,沃尔特一直是内布拉斯加州的慈善领袖,奥马哈和整个州都留下了他深深的印记。\n\n沃尔特上了本森高中,我也原本打算去那所学校上学——直到 1942 年,我父亲出人意料地在国会竞选中击败了连任四届的对手。生活总是充满惊喜。\n\n等等,还有更多。\n\n1959 年,唐·基奥和他的年轻家庭住在离我家街对面、距离芒格家旧居约 100 码远的一所房子里。当时唐是一名咖啡推销员,但后来他成为了可口可乐公司的总裁,并且是伯克希尔公司的忠实董事。\n\n我认识唐的时候,他一年挣 12000 美元,而他和妻子米基还要抚养五个孩子,这些孩子都得上天主教学校(学费不菲)。\n\n我们两家很快成了挚友。唐来自爱荷华州西北部的一个农场,毕业于奥马哈市的克雷顿大学。早年,他娶了奥马哈姑娘米基。加入可口可乐公司后,唐很快就在全球声名远扬。\n\n1985 年,唐担任可口可乐公司总裁期间,公司推出了命运多舛的新可口可乐。唐发表了一次著名的演讲,向公众道歉,并重新推出了“老”可口可乐。这一转变发生在唐解释说,寄给“至高无上的白痴”的信件会迅速送到他的办公桌上之后。他的“撤回”演讲堪称经典,可在YouTube 上观看。他愉快地承认,实际上可口可乐产品属于公众而非公司。随后销量大幅上升。\n\n您可以在 https://t.co/UngDEv31eq 上观看唐的一次精彩访谈。(汤姆·墨菲和凯·格雷厄姆也有几段精彩的内容。)和查理·芒格一样,唐始终是个地道的中西部男孩,热情、友善,骨子里透着十足的美国味儿。\n\n最后,出生于印度并在那里长大的阿吉特·贾恩(Ajit Jain)以及即将成为我们首席执行官的加拿大人格雷格·阿贝尔(Greg Abel),在 20 世纪末都曾在奥马哈生活了数年。事实上,在 20世纪 90 年代,格雷格就住在离我仅几个街区远的法纳姆街(Farnam Street),不过当时我们从未谋面。\n\n难道奥马哈的水里有什么神奇的成分吗?\n\n************\n\n我十几岁时在华盛顿特区生活过几年(当时我父亲在国会任职),1954 年我在曼哈顿找到了一份我以为会干一辈子的工作。在那里,本·格雷厄姆和杰里·纽曼对我很好,我也结交了许多终生的朋友。纽约有着独特的魅力——至今依然如此。然而,仅仅一年半之后,在 1956 年,我还是回到了奥马哈,从此再也没有离开过。\n\n后来,我的三个孩子以及几个孙辈都在奥马哈长大。我的孩子们一直就读于公立学校(从同一所高中毕业,这所高中培养了我父亲(1921 届)、我的第一任妻子苏西(1950 届),还有对内布拉斯加家具商场的发展起到关键作用的查理、斯坦·利普西、厄夫和罗恩·布卢姆金,以及1923 届的杰克·林格瓦尔特,他创立了国民赔偿保险公司,并于 1967 年将其出售给伯克希尔,成为我们庞大的财产险业务的基础)。\n\n************\n\n我们国家有很多伟大的公司、伟大的学校、伟大的医疗机构,每个地方都有其独特的优势,也都有才华出众的人。但我感到非常幸运,能有幸结交许多一生的朋友,能遇到我的两位妻子,在公立学校接受良好的教育,年幼时就能结识许多有趣且友善的奥马哈成年人,还能在内布拉斯加州国民警卫队结识各种各样的朋友。总之,内布拉斯加州一直是我真正的家。\n\n回首往事,我觉得伯克希尔和我之所以能取得更好的成绩,很大程度上是因为我们扎根于奥马哈。如果我出生在其他地方,结果可能就大不一样了。美国的中心地带是出生、养家和创业的绝佳之地。我出生时纯属运气好,抽到了一根长得出奇的签。\n\n************\n\n现在来说说我的高龄。我的基因并没有给我带来什么好处——家族长寿纪录(当然,追溯得越久远,家族记录就越模糊)一直是 92 岁,直到我打破了这个纪录。不过,我有睿智、友善且尽职尽责的奥马哈医生,从哈雷·霍茨医生开始,一直到现在。至少有三次,我的生命是被离家不远的医生们挽救的。(不过,我已经不再给护士们按指纹了。95 岁的人可以有很多怪癖……但也有个限度。)\n\n************\n\n活到老寿星这把年纪,得有极大的运气,每天都要躲过香蕉皮、自然灾害、醉酒或分心的司机、雷击等等,诸如此类的危险。\n\n但幸运女神反复无常,而且——没有别的词能形容——极其不公平。在很多情况下,我们的领导人和富人得到的幸运远远超过了他们应得的份额——而这些幸运儿往往不愿承认这一点。有些豪门子弟一出生就获得了终身的经济保障,而其他人则在幼年时期就面临着地狱般的困境,甚至更糟的是,身患残疾,失去了我视为理所当然的一切。在世界上很多人口稠密的地区,我可能会过着悲惨的生活,而我的姐妹们则会过上更糟糕的日子。\n\n我于 1930 年出生在美国,健康、聪明、白人、男性。哇!感谢幸运女神。我的姐妹们和我一样聪明,性格还比我好,但她们的人生前景却大不相同。幸运女神在我人生的大部分时间里都眷顾着我,但她可没空去照顾那些九十多岁的人。幸运也是有极限的。\n\n时光老人却恰恰相反,随着我年岁渐长,他愈发觉得我有趣了。他战无不胜;对他而言,每个人最终都算在他的“胜者”名单上。当平衡感、视力、听力和记忆力都持续走下坡路时,你就知道时光老人就在附近了。\n\n我步入老年的时间较晚——衰老的开始因人而异——但一旦出现,就无法否认。\n\n令我惊讶的是,我总体感觉良好。尽管行动迟缓,阅读也愈发吃力,但我每周仍会在办公室工作五天,与出色的人们共事。偶尔,我会冒出一些有用的想法,或者有人向我们提出一些原本可能不会有的提议。由于伯克希尔的规模以及市场状况,好的想法不多——但并非没有。\n\n************\n\n然而,我出乎意料的长寿却给我的家庭以及我慈善目标的实现带来了重大且不可避免的影响。\n\n让我们来探究一下它们。\n\n接下来是什么\n\n我的孩子们都已超过正常退休年龄,分别为 72 岁、70 岁和 67 岁。指望他们三人——在很多方面都已达到巅峰——能像我一样延缓衰老,这显然是不切实际的。为了提高他们在我指定的受托人取代他们之前处理完我几乎全部遗产的可能性,我需要加快向他们三个基金会的生前赠与。我的孩子们现在在经验和智慧方面都处于巅峰,但还未步入老年。这段“蜜月期”不会永远持续下去。\n\n幸运的是,调整方向很容易执行。不过,还有一个额外的因素需要考虑:我希望在伯克希尔的股东们像我和查理那样对格雷格充满信心之前,保留相当数量的“A”类股。这种程度的信任应该不会太久。我的孩子们已经百分之百支持格雷格,伯克希尔的董事们也是如此。\n\n如今这三个孩子都已成熟,头脑聪明,精力充沛,且富有本能,足以支配一大笔财富。在我去世很久之后,他们仍能活跃于世,这将是他们的优势所在。如有必要,他们可以采取既具前瞻性又具应对性的策略来应对联邦税收政策或其他影响慈善事业的发展。他们很可能需要适应周围世界发生的巨大变化。死后遥控指挥向来成效不佳,而我从未有过这种冲动。\n\n幸运的是,三个孩子都从母亲那里遗传了显性基因。随着岁月的流逝,我也逐渐成为他们思考和行为的更好榜样。然而,我永远无法与他们的母亲相提并论。\n\n我的孩子们有三位候补监护人,以防出现任何意外死亡或残疾的情况。这三位候补监护人不分先后顺序,也不与任何特定的孩子绑定。他们都是杰出的人,对世事洞明。他们没有任何相互冲突的动机。\n\n我已向孩子们保证,他们无需创造奇迹,也无需惧怕失败或失望。这些都是不可避免的,我也经历过。他们只需在政府活动和/或私人慈善事业通常所取得的成就基础上有所进步即可,同时要认识到这些财富再分配的方式也存在不足之处。\n\n早些时候,我曾构想过种种宏伟的慈善计划。尽管我性格执拗,但这些计划最终都未能实现。在我漫长的人生中,我也目睹了政客们拙劣的财富转移、家族式的抉择,当然还有那些不称职或古怪的慈善家。\n\n如果我的孩子们能干得不错,他们可以肯定,我和他们的母亲都会感到高兴。他们的直觉很好,而且他们每个人都有多年的实践经历,起初只是很小的数目,后来逐渐增加到每年超过5亿美元。\n\n这三个人都喜欢长时间工作来帮助他人,只是方式各不相同。\n\n************\n\n我加快向子女基金会捐赠的步伐,这绝不是因为我对伯克希尔的前景有了任何改变的看法。格雷格·阿贝尔的表现远超我当初认为他应成为伯克希尔下一任首席执行官时对他的期望。他对我们的许多业务和人员的了解远胜于我,而且对于很多首席执行官都不曾考虑的问题,他也能很快掌握。无论您说的是一位首席执行官、一位管理顾问、一位学者,还是一位政府官员,我都想不出有谁能比格雷格更适合来管理您和我的储蓄。\n\n例如,格雷格对我们的财产和意外险业务的潜在收益和风险的了解,远胜于许多长期从事这一业务的高管。我希望他的健康状况能保持良好几十年。如果运气好,伯克希尔在接下来的一个世纪里只需要五六个首席执行官。尤其要避免那些一心想着 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413 人\n\n我就能达到 10000 followers\n\n朋友\n\n我该去哪里寻找你? https://t.co/TTyhhTpN0G","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,37],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988192647794803098","view_count":7665,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1762857040000,"favorite_count":25,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":27,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1988192647794803098","full_text":"20岁多岁的男人\n\n请给30岁以上的男人一些建议 \n\n主题可以是任何方面","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,42],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1328686769508732929","name":"解构师 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2006\n\n有一天,我从徐家汇赶去机场,在美罗大厦前搜索出租车。一辆「大众」发现了我,非常专业地、径直地停在我的面前。这一停,便有了后面这个让我深感震撼的故事,像上了一堂生动的MBA案例课\n\n「去哪里……好的,机场。我在徐家汇就喜欢做美罗大厦的生意。这里我只做两个地方:美罗大厦,均瑶大厦。接到你之前,我在美罗大厦门口兜了两圈,终于被我看到你了!从写字楼里出来的,肯定去的不近……」\n\n「哦?你很有方法嘛!」我附和了一下。\n\n「做出租车司机,也要用科学的方法。」他说。\n\n我一愣,顿时很有些兴趣:「什么科学的方法?」\n\n「要懂得统计。我做过精确的计算,我每天要开17个小时的车,每小时成本34.4元……」\n\n「怎么算出来的?」我追问。\n\n「你算啊,我每天要交380元给公司,一天17小时,平均每小时固定成本约22元;油费210元左右,平均每小时12.4元油费。加起来是不是就是 34.4元?」我有些惊讶。我打了10年的车,第一次听到有出租车司机这么计算成本。以前的司机都和我说,每公里成本0.3元,另外每天交多少钱之类的。\n\n「成本是不能按公里算的,只能按时间算。我做过数据分析,每次载客之间的空驶时间平均为7分钟。如果上来一个起步价,10元,大概要开10分钟。也就 是每一个10元的客人要花17分钟的成本,也就是9.7元。不赚钱啊!如果说做浦东、杭州、青浦的客人是吃饭,做10元的客人连吃菜都算不上,只能算是撒 了些味精。」\n\n这位师傅听上去真不像出租车司机,倒像是一位成本核算师。「那你怎么办呢?」我更感兴趣了,继续问。\n\n「千万不能被客户拉了满街跑。要通过选择停车的地点、时间和客户,主动地决定你要去的地方。」我非常惊讶,这听上去很有意思。「有人说做出租车司机是靠运气吃饭的职业。我以为不是。你要站在客户的位置上,从客户的角度去思考。」这句话听上去非常专业,有点像很多商业管理培训老师说的「put yourself into others’ shoes(设身处地为别人着想)」。\n\n「给你举个例子,医院门口,一个拿着药的,一个拿着脸盆的,你带哪一个。」我想了想,说不知道。\n\n「你要带那个拿脸盆的。一般人小病小痛的到医院看一看,拿点药,不一定会去很远的医院。拿着脸盆打车的,那是出院的。住院哪有不死人的?今天二楼的谁 死了,明天三楼又死了一个。从医院出来的人通常会有重获新生的感觉。那天这个人说:走,去青浦。眼睛都不眨一下。你说他会打车到人民广场,再去坐青浦线吗?绝对不会!」\n\n我不由得开始佩服。\n\n「再给你举个例子。那天中午人民广场,好几个人在前面招手。一个年轻女子,拿着小包,刚买完东西。还有一对青年男女,一看就是逛街的。接下去是个里面穿绒衬衫、外面套羽绒服的男子,提着笔记本电脑。我看一个人只要3秒钟。我毫不犹豫地停在这个男子面前。这个男的上车后忍不住问,为什么你毫不犹豫地开到我面前?前面还有别人。我回答说,还有十几分钟就1点了。那个女孩子是中午溜出来买东西的,估计公司很近;那对男女是游客,没拿什么东西,不会去很远;你是出去办事的,拿着笔记本电脑,一看就是公务,这个时候出去,估计应该不会近。那个男的就说,你说对了,去宝山。」\n\n「那些在超市门口、地铁口打车,穿着睡衣的人可能去很远的地方吗?可能去机场吗?」\n\n有道理!我越听越有意思。\n\n「很多司机都抱怨,生意不好做啊,油价又涨了啊,都从别人身上找原因。我说,从别人身上找原因,你永远不能提高。从自己身上找找看,问题出在哪里。」这话听起来好熟,好像是「如果你不能改变世界,就改变你自己」。\n\n「有一次,在南丹路一个人拦车,去田林。后来又有一次,一个人在南丹路拦车,还是去田林。我就问,怎么你们从南丹路出来的人,很多都是去田林呢?人家说,在南丹路有一个公共汽车总站,我们都是坐公共汽车从浦东到这里,然后搭车去田林的。我恍然大悟。你看我们开过的这条路,没有写字楼,没有酒店,什么都没有,只有公共汽车站,在这里拦车的多半都是刚下公共汽车的,再选择一条最短路径打车,通常不会高于15元。」\n\n「所以,态度决定一切!」我听十几个总裁讲过这句话,第一次听出租车司机这么说。\n\n「要用科学的方法做生意。天天等在地铁口排队,怎么能赚到钱?要用知识武装自己。学习知识可以把一个人变成聪明的人,一个聪明的人学习知识可以变成很聪明的人。一个很聪明的人学习知识,可以变成天才。」\n\n「有一次一个人打车去火车站,问怎么走。他说这么这么走。我说慢,上高架,再这么这么走。他说,那就绕远了。我说,没关系,你经常走你有经验,你那么走50块,你按我的走法,等里程表50块了,我就翻表,多的算我的。最后,按我的路走,多走了4公里,快了25分钟,我只收了50块。乘客很高兴。这4公里对我来说就是1块多钱的油钱。我相当于用1块多钱买了25分钟。我一小时的成本34.4块,我多合算啊!」\n\n「在大众公司,一般一个司机三四千,好的大概5千左右。顶级的司机大概每月能有7千。全大众两万个司机,大概只有两三个每月能拿到8千以上。我就是这中间的一个。而且很稳定,基本不会有大的波动。」\n\n到此为止,我越来越佩服这个出租车司机。\n\n「我常常说,我是一个快乐的车夫。有人说,你赚的钱多,当然快乐。我对他们说,你们正好错了。是因为我有快乐、积极的心态,所以赚的钱多。」\n\n说得多好啊!\n\n「要懂得体味工作带给你的美。堵在人民广场的时候,很多司机抱怨,又堵车了!真是倒霉。千万不要这样,用心体会一下这个城市的美,外面有很多漂亮的女孩 子经过,非常现代的高楼大厦,虽然买不起,但是可以用欣赏的眼光去享受。开车去机场,看着两边的绿色,冬天是白色的,多美啊。再看看里程表,100多了,就更美了!每一样工作都有美丽的地方,我们要懂得体会。」\n\n「我10年前是强生公司的总教练,8年前在公司做过3个不同部门的部门经理。后来我不干了,一个月就三五千块,没意思,就主动来做司机。我愿意做一个快乐的车夫。哈哈哈哈。」\n\n到了机场,我给他留了一张名片,说:「你有没有兴趣这个星期五,到我办公室,给微软的员工讲一讲你怎么开出租车的?你就当打着表,60公里1小时,你讲多久,我就付你多少钱。」\n\n我迫不及待地在飞机上记录下这堂生动的MBA课","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,17],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"561829394","name":"超级siya人","screen_name":"siyahashkey","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"siyahashkey","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987705723913228468","view_count":93,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762740949000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1987700438242844889","full_text":"@siyahashkey 沙发学习","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"561829394","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987700438242844889","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[8,21],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1372876871990272000","name":"丰密","screen_name":"KuiGas","indices":[0,7]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"KuiGas","lang":"ja","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987800996035408168","view_count":68,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762763663000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1987800109766336870","full_text":"@KuiGas gas的使用决定人生的方向","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1372876871990272000","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987800109766336870","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,23],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1899739859084103680","name":"林晚晚的猫","screen_name":"linwanwan823","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"linwanwan823","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987854697999606109","view_count":755,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762776467000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1987774526672011639","full_text":"@linwanwan823 这个角度好啊,敏感","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1899739859084103680","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987774526672011639","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-12","value":26614,"startTime":1762819200000,"endTime":1762905600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,117],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E5FIcxWw92","expanded_url":"https://x.com/otzgary/status/1988114872710922545/photo/1","id_str":"1988114803672694784","indices":[118,141],"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5cz4WWbQAAc6dR.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E5FIcxWw92","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":440,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":772,"width":1194,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":669},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":772,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":677,"h":772},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":386,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":772}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[{"display_url":"CharlieRose.com","expanded_url":"http://CharlieRose.com","url":"https://t.co/UngDEv31eq","indices":[2480,2503]}],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E5FIcxWw92","expanded_url":"https://x.com/otzgary/status/1988114872710922545/photo/1","id_str":"1988114803672694784","indices":[118,141],"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5cz4WWbQAAc6dR.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E5FIcxWw92","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":440,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":772,"width":1194,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":669},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":772,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":677,"h":772},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":386,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":772}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"quoted_status_id_str":"1988096559029145718","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/JJZol2wHGH","expanded":"https://twitter.com/0xBeyondLee/status/1988096559029145718","display":"x.com/0xBeyondLee/st…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988114872710922545","view_count":3919,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1762838497000,"favorite_count":14,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1988114872710922545","full_text":"致各位股东:\n\n我将不再撰写伯克希尔的年度报告,也不会在年度会议上滔滔不绝。用英国人的话说,我将“保持沉默”。\n\n算是吧。\n\n格雷格·阿贝尔将于年底接任。他是一位出色的管理者,一个不知疲倦的工作者,以及一个的坦诚沟通者。祝他任期长久。\n\n我会通过每年的感恩节致辞继续与你们以及我的孩子们谈论伯克希尔的情况。伯克希尔的个人股东们是一群非常特别的人,他们总是慷慨地与那些不如他们幸运的人分享自己的收益。我很享受与你们保持联系的机会。今年请允许我先回忆一下往事。之后,我会谈谈我伯克希尔股份的分配计划。最后,我会分享一些业务和个人方面的看法。\n\n************\n\n随着感恩节的临近,我为自己活到 95 岁感到既感恩又惊讶。年轻时,这样的结果看起来希望渺茫。早些时候,我差点就死了。\n\n那是 1938 年,当时奥马哈的市民认为当地的医院要么是天主教的,要么是新教的,这种分类在当时看来是很自然的。\n\n我们的家庭医生哈雷·霍茨是个友善的天主教徒,他上门看病时总是背着一个黑色的医药包。霍茨医生叫我“小船长”,每次上门看病收费也不高。1938 年我肚子疼得厉害,霍茨医生来了,探查一番后告诉我,第二天早上就会好的。\n\n随后他回家吃了晚饭,还打了会儿桥牌。不过,霍茨医生始终忘不了我那些有点古怪的症状,当晚晚些时候便把我送到了圣凯瑟琳医院,给我做了紧急阑尾切除手术。接下来的三周里,我感觉自己就像置身于修道院,也开始喜欢上了我的新“讲台”。我喜欢说话——没错,那时也是——修女们对我很友好。\n\n最妙的是,三年级的马德森老师让班上的30个同学每人给我写一封信。我大概把男生们的信都扔了,而女生们的信我却反复读了很多遍;住院也有好处嘛。\n\n我康复期间最开心的事——其实头一周情况还很危险——是我那亲爱的艾迪姨妈送我的一份礼物。她给我带来了一套看起来非常专业的指纹采集工具,我马上给照顾我的修女们都采集了指纹。(我可能是圣凯瑟琳医院里她们见过的第一个新教徒孩子,她们也不知道该对我有什么期待。)\n\n我的想法——当然完全是异想天开——是总有一天会有个修女犯了法,而联邦调查局会发现他们居然没有给修女们采集指纹。联邦调查局及其局长 J. 埃德加·胡佛在 20 世纪 30 年代已为美国人所敬仰,我想象着胡佛先生亲自来到奥马哈来查看我那珍贵的指纹收藏。我还幻想我和 J. 埃德加能迅速找出并逮捕那个失足的修女。全国性的声誉似乎唾手可得。\n\n显然,我的幻想从未实现。但颇具讽刺意味的是,几年后我才发现,当时我本应给 J. 埃德加本人采集指纹,因为他后来因滥用职权而身败名裂。\n\n嗯,那是 20 世纪 30 年代的奥马哈,那时我和其他小伙伴都渴望拥有一辆雪橇、一辆自行车、一副棒球手套和一辆电动火车。让我们来看看那个时代其他几个孩子,他们就住在附近,对我影响很大,但我很久都不知道他们的存在。\n\n我先从查理·芒格说起,他是我 64 年的好友。20 世纪 30 年代,查理就住在离我 1958 年起就一直居住的房子仅一个街区的地方。\n\n早些时候,我差点就和查理成为朋友了。查理比我大6岁半,1940 年夏天他在祖父的杂货店打工,每天工作10个小时挣2美元。(节俭是巴菲特家族的传统。)第二年我也在店里干过类似的工作,但直到1959年我才见到查理,那时他35岁,我28岁。\n\n二战服役结束后,查理从哈佛法学院毕业,然后永久定居在加利福尼亚。然而,查理却一直将自己在奥马哈的早年岁月视为人生的重要阶段。六十多年来,查理对我影响巨大,他是一位极好的老师,也是我保护有加的“大哥”。我们之间虽有分歧,但从无争执。他从不说“我早就跟你说过”。\n\n1958 年,我买了我的第一套也是唯一一套房子。当然,它在奥马哈,离我成长的地方(大致说来)约两英里,离我岳父母家不到两个街区,离巴菲特杂货店约六个街区,开车到我工作了 64年的办公楼只需 6 到 7 分钟。\n\n让我们来谈谈另一位奥马哈人斯坦·利普西。1968 年,斯坦将《奥马哈太阳报》(周报)卖给了伯克希尔,十年后应我的请求搬到了布法罗。当时伯克希尔旗下一家子公司拥有的《布法罗晚报》正与该市唯一的周日报纸的出版商——其早报竞争对手展开生死较量,而我们正节节败退。\n\n斯坦最终打造出了我们新的《星期日》产品,此后数年,我们这项原本每年都在大量亏损的投资,每年(税前)的回报率都超过了100%。在20世纪80年代初,这笔3300万美元的投资对伯克希尔来说是一笔重要的资金。\n\n斯坦在我家附近大约五个街区的地方长大。斯坦的一位邻居是小沃尔特·斯科特。沃尔特,您应该还记得,他在 1999 年将中美能源公司带到了伯克希尔。他还是伯克希尔的董事,直到 2021年去世,也是我的挚友。几十年来,沃尔特一直是内布拉斯加州的慈善领袖,奥马哈和整个州都留下了他深深的印记。\n\n沃尔特上了本森高中,我也原本打算去那所学校上学——直到 1942 年,我父亲出人意料地在国会竞选中击败了连任四届的对手。生活总是充满惊喜。\n\n等等,还有更多。\n\n1959 年,唐·基奥和他的年轻家庭住在离我家街对面、距离芒格家旧居约 100 码远的一所房子里。当时唐是一名咖啡推销员,但后来他成为了可口可乐公司的总裁,并且是伯克希尔公司的忠实董事。\n\n我认识唐的时候,他一年挣 12000 美元,而他和妻子米基还要抚养五个孩子,这些孩子都得上天主教学校(学费不菲)。\n\n我们两家很快成了挚友。唐来自爱荷华州西北部的一个农场,毕业于奥马哈市的克雷顿大学。早年,他娶了奥马哈姑娘米基。加入可口可乐公司后,唐很快就在全球声名远扬。\n\n1985 年,唐担任可口可乐公司总裁期间,公司推出了命运多舛的新可口可乐。唐发表了一次著名的演讲,向公众道歉,并重新推出了“老”可口可乐。这一转变发生在唐解释说,寄给“至高无上的白痴”的信件会迅速送到他的办公桌上之后。他的“撤回”演讲堪称经典,可在YouTube 上观看。他愉快地承认,实际上可口可乐产品属于公众而非公司。随后销量大幅上升。\n\n您可以在 https://t.co/UngDEv31eq 上观看唐的一次精彩访谈。(汤姆·墨菲和凯·格雷厄姆也有几段精彩的内容。)和查理·芒格一样,唐始终是个地道的中西部男孩,热情、友善,骨子里透着十足的美国味儿。\n\n最后,出生于印度并在那里长大的阿吉特·贾恩(Ajit Jain)以及即将成为我们首席执行官的加拿大人格雷格·阿贝尔(Greg Abel),在 20 世纪末都曾在奥马哈生活了数年。事实上,在 20世纪 90 年代,格雷格就住在离我仅几个街区远的法纳姆街(Farnam Street),不过当时我们从未谋面。\n\n难道奥马哈的水里有什么神奇的成分吗?\n\n************\n\n我十几岁时在华盛顿特区生活过几年(当时我父亲在国会任职),1954 年我在曼哈顿找到了一份我以为会干一辈子的工作。在那里,本·格雷厄姆和杰里·纽曼对我很好,我也结交了许多终生的朋友。纽约有着独特的魅力——至今依然如此。然而,仅仅一年半之后,在 1956 年,我还是回到了奥马哈,从此再也没有离开过。\n\n后来,我的三个孩子以及几个孙辈都在奥马哈长大。我的孩子们一直就读于公立学校(从同一所高中毕业,这所高中培养了我父亲(1921 届)、我的第一任妻子苏西(1950 届),还有对内布拉斯加家具商场的发展起到关键作用的查理、斯坦·利普西、厄夫和罗恩·布卢姆金,以及1923 届的杰克·林格瓦尔特,他创立了国民赔偿保险公司,并于 1967 年将其出售给伯克希尔,成为我们庞大的财产险业务的基础)。\n\n************\n\n我们国家有很多伟大的公司、伟大的学校、伟大的医疗机构,每个地方都有其独特的优势,也都有才华出众的人。但我感到非常幸运,能有幸结交许多一生的朋友,能遇到我的两位妻子,在公立学校接受良好的教育,年幼时就能结识许多有趣且友善的奥马哈成年人,还能在内布拉斯加州国民警卫队结识各种各样的朋友。总之,内布拉斯加州一直是我真正的家。\n\n回首往事,我觉得伯克希尔和我之所以能取得更好的成绩,很大程度上是因为我们扎根于奥马哈。如果我出生在其他地方,结果可能就大不一样了。美国的中心地带是出生、养家和创业的绝佳之地。我出生时纯属运气好,抽到了一根长得出奇的签。\n\n************\n\n现在来说说我的高龄。我的基因并没有给我带来什么好处——家族长寿纪录(当然,追溯得越久远,家族记录就越模糊)一直是 92 岁,直到我打破了这个纪录。不过,我有睿智、友善且尽职尽责的奥马哈医生,从哈雷·霍茨医生开始,一直到现在。至少有三次,我的生命是被离家不远的医生们挽救的。(不过,我已经不再给护士们按指纹了。95 岁的人可以有很多怪癖……但也有个限度。)\n\n************\n\n活到老寿星这把年纪,得有极大的运气,每天都要躲过香蕉皮、自然灾害、醉酒或分心的司机、雷击等等,诸如此类的危险。\n\n但幸运女神反复无常,而且——没有别的词能形容——极其不公平。在很多情况下,我们的领导人和富人得到的幸运远远超过了他们应得的份额——而这些幸运儿往往不愿承认这一点。有些豪门子弟一出生就获得了终身的经济保障,而其他人则在幼年时期就面临着地狱般的困境,甚至更糟的是,身患残疾,失去了我视为理所当然的一切。在世界上很多人口稠密的地区,我可能会过着悲惨的生活,而我的姐妹们则会过上更糟糕的日子。\n\n我于 1930 年出生在美国,健康、聪明、白人、男性。哇!感谢幸运女神。我的姐妹们和我一样聪明,性格还比我好,但她们的人生前景却大不相同。幸运女神在我人生的大部分时间里都眷顾着我,但她可没空去照顾那些九十多岁的人。幸运也是有极限的。\n\n时光老人却恰恰相反,随着我年岁渐长,他愈发觉得我有趣了。他战无不胜;对他而言,每个人最终都算在他的“胜者”名单上。当平衡感、视力、听力和记忆力都持续走下坡路时,你就知道时光老人就在附近了。\n\n我步入老年的时间较晚——衰老的开始因人而异——但一旦出现,就无法否认。\n\n令我惊讶的是,我总体感觉良好。尽管行动迟缓,阅读也愈发吃力,但我每周仍会在办公室工作五天,与出色的人们共事。偶尔,我会冒出一些有用的想法,或者有人向我们提出一些原本可能不会有的提议。由于伯克希尔的规模以及市场状况,好的想法不多——但并非没有。\n\n************\n\n然而,我出乎意料的长寿却给我的家庭以及我慈善目标的实现带来了重大且不可避免的影响。\n\n让我们来探究一下它们。\n\n接下来是什么\n\n我的孩子们都已超过正常退休年龄,分别为 72 岁、70 岁和 67 岁。指望他们三人——在很多方面都已达到巅峰——能像我一样延缓衰老,这显然是不切实际的。为了提高他们在我指定的受托人取代他们之前处理完我几乎全部遗产的可能性,我需要加快向他们三个基金会的生前赠与。我的孩子们现在在经验和智慧方面都处于巅峰,但还未步入老年。这段“蜜月期”不会永远持续下去。\n\n幸运的是,调整方向很容易执行。不过,还有一个额外的因素需要考虑:我希望在伯克希尔的股东们像我和查理那样对格雷格充满信心之前,保留相当数量的“A”类股。这种程度的信任应该不会太久。我的孩子们已经百分之百支持格雷格,伯克希尔的董事们也是如此。\n\n如今这三个孩子都已成熟,头脑聪明,精力充沛,且富有本能,足以支配一大笔财富。在我去世很久之后,他们仍能活跃于世,这将是他们的优势所在。如有必要,他们可以采取既具前瞻性又具应对性的策略来应对联邦税收政策或其他影响慈善事业的发展。他们很可能需要适应周围世界发生的巨大变化。死后遥控指挥向来成效不佳,而我从未有过这种冲动。\n\n幸运的是,三个孩子都从母亲那里遗传了显性基因。随着岁月的流逝,我也逐渐成为他们思考和行为的更好榜样。然而,我永远无法与他们的母亲相提并论。\n\n我的孩子们有三位候补监护人,以防出现任何意外死亡或残疾的情况。这三位候补监护人不分先后顺序,也不与任何特定的孩子绑定。他们都是杰出的人,对世事洞明。他们没有任何相互冲突的动机。\n\n我已向孩子们保证,他们无需创造奇迹,也无需惧怕失败或失望。这些都是不可避免的,我也经历过。他们只需在政府活动和/或私人慈善事业通常所取得的成就基础上有所进步即可,同时要认识到这些财富再分配的方式也存在不足之处。\n\n早些时候,我曾构想过种种宏伟的慈善计划。尽管我性格执拗,但这些计划最终都未能实现。在我漫长的人生中,我也目睹了政客们拙劣的财富转移、家族式的抉择,当然还有那些不称职或古怪的慈善家。\n\n如果我的孩子们能干得不错,他们可以肯定,我和他们的母亲都会感到高兴。他们的直觉很好,而且他们每个人都有多年的实践经历,起初只是很小的数目,后来逐渐增加到每年超过5亿美元。\n\n这三个人都喜欢长时间工作来帮助他人,只是方式各不相同。\n\n************\n\n我加快向子女基金会捐赠的步伐,这绝不是因为我对伯克希尔的前景有了任何改变的看法。格雷格·阿贝尔的表现远超我当初认为他应成为伯克希尔下一任首席执行官时对他的期望。他对我们的许多业务和人员的了解远胜于我,而且对于很多首席执行官都不曾考虑的问题,他也能很快掌握。无论您说的是一位首席执行官、一位管理顾问、一位学者,还是一位政府官员,我都想不出有谁能比格雷格更适合来管理您和我的储蓄。\n\n例如,格雷格对我们的财产和意外险业务的潜在收益和风险的了解,远胜于许多长期从事这一业务的高管。我希望他的健康状况能保持良好几十年。如果运气好,伯克希尔在接下来的一个世纪里只需要五六个首席执行官。尤其要避免那些一心想着 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413 人\n\n我就能达到 10000 followers\n\n朋友\n\n我该去哪里寻找你? https://t.co/TTyhhTpN0G","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,37],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988192647794803098","view_count":7665,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1762857040000,"favorite_count":25,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":27,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1988192647794803098","full_text":"20岁多岁的男人\n\n请给30岁以上的男人一些建议 \n\n主题可以是任何方面","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,42],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1328686769508732929","name":"解构师 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Engaging more with trending tech conversations and influencers can amplify reach, while occasional lighter or personal content could deepen follower connection.","roast":"关木 tweets enough tech jargon to power a supercomputer, but sometimes you wonder if half their followers are just Googling ‘what did they just say?’—they’re basically the ‘IFTTT’ of Twitter: incredibly useful, but you need a translator handy.","win":"Achieving widespread engagement with nuanced AI discussions, their tweet dissecting AI company contributions attracted over 110,000 views and sparked vibrant discourse, showcasing their impact as a respected tech analyst and community educator."},"created":1762942732914,"type":"the analyst","id":"zeroz_jq"},{"user":{"id":"574355596","name":"otman.ETH","description":"📊 Breaking trends, sharing alpha, building community","followers_count":635,"friends_count":412,"statuses_count":11247,"profile_image_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1961690903204200448/JqqkLZV5_normal.jpg","screen_name":"otman1_o","location":"","entities":{"description":{"urls":[]}}},"details":{"type":"The Analyst","description":"otman.ETH is a data-driven crypto whisperer who thrives on breaking down complex blockchain trends into actionable insights. 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2006\n\n有一天,我从徐家汇赶去机场,在美罗大厦前搜索出租车。一辆「大众」发现了我,非常专业地、径直地停在我的面前。这一停,便有了后面这个让我深感震撼的故事,像上了一堂生动的MBA案例课\n\n「去哪里……好的,机场。我在徐家汇就喜欢做美罗大厦的生意。这里我只做两个地方:美罗大厦,均瑶大厦。接到你之前,我在美罗大厦门口兜了两圈,终于被我看到你了!从写字楼里出来的,肯定去的不近……」\n\n「哦?你很有方法嘛!」我附和了一下。\n\n「做出租车司机,也要用科学的方法。」他说。\n\n我一愣,顿时很有些兴趣:「什么科学的方法?」\n\n「要懂得统计。我做过精确的计算,我每天要开17个小时的车,每小时成本34.4元……」\n\n「怎么算出来的?」我追问。\n\n「你算啊,我每天要交380元给公司,一天17小时,平均每小时固定成本约22元;油费210元左右,平均每小时12.4元油费。加起来是不是就是 34.4元?」我有些惊讶。我打了10年的车,第一次听到有出租车司机这么计算成本。以前的司机都和我说,每公里成本0.3元,另外每天交多少钱之类的。\n\n「成本是不能按公里算的,只能按时间算。我做过数据分析,每次载客之间的空驶时间平均为7分钟。如果上来一个起步价,10元,大概要开10分钟。也就 是每一个10元的客人要花17分钟的成本,也就是9.7元。不赚钱啊!如果说做浦东、杭州、青浦的客人是吃饭,做10元的客人连吃菜都算不上,只能算是撒 了些味精。」\n\n这位师傅听上去真不像出租车司机,倒像是一位成本核算师。「那你怎么办呢?」我更感兴趣了,继续问。\n\n「千万不能被客户拉了满街跑。要通过选择停车的地点、时间和客户,主动地决定你要去的地方。」我非常惊讶,这听上去很有意思。「有人说做出租车司机是靠运气吃饭的职业。我以为不是。你要站在客户的位置上,从客户的角度去思考。」这句话听上去非常专业,有点像很多商业管理培训老师说的「put yourself into others’ shoes(设身处地为别人着想)」。\n\n「给你举个例子,医院门口,一个拿着药的,一个拿着脸盆的,你带哪一个。」我想了想,说不知道。\n\n「你要带那个拿脸盆的。一般人小病小痛的到医院看一看,拿点药,不一定会去很远的医院。拿着脸盆打车的,那是出院的。住院哪有不死人的?今天二楼的谁 死了,明天三楼又死了一个。从医院出来的人通常会有重获新生的感觉。那天这个人说:走,去青浦。眼睛都不眨一下。你说他会打车到人民广场,再去坐青浦线吗?绝对不会!」\n\n我不由得开始佩服。\n\n「再给你举个例子。那天中午人民广场,好几个人在前面招手。一个年轻女子,拿着小包,刚买完东西。还有一对青年男女,一看就是逛街的。接下去是个里面穿绒衬衫、外面套羽绒服的男子,提着笔记本电脑。我看一个人只要3秒钟。我毫不犹豫地停在这个男子面前。这个男的上车后忍不住问,为什么你毫不犹豫地开到我面前?前面还有别人。我回答说,还有十几分钟就1点了。那个女孩子是中午溜出来买东西的,估计公司很近;那对男女是游客,没拿什么东西,不会去很远;你是出去办事的,拿着笔记本电脑,一看就是公务,这个时候出去,估计应该不会近。那个男的就说,你说对了,去宝山。」\n\n「那些在超市门口、地铁口打车,穿着睡衣的人可能去很远的地方吗?可能去机场吗?」\n\n有道理!我越听越有意思。\n\n「很多司机都抱怨,生意不好做啊,油价又涨了啊,都从别人身上找原因。我说,从别人身上找原因,你永远不能提高。从自己身上找找看,问题出在哪里。」这话听起来好熟,好像是「如果你不能改变世界,就改变你自己」。\n\n「有一次,在南丹路一个人拦车,去田林。后来又有一次,一个人在南丹路拦车,还是去田林。我就问,怎么你们从南丹路出来的人,很多都是去田林呢?人家说,在南丹路有一个公共汽车总站,我们都是坐公共汽车从浦东到这里,然后搭车去田林的。我恍然大悟。你看我们开过的这条路,没有写字楼,没有酒店,什么都没有,只有公共汽车站,在这里拦车的多半都是刚下公共汽车的,再选择一条最短路径打车,通常不会高于15元。」\n\n「所以,态度决定一切!」我听十几个总裁讲过这句话,第一次听出租车司机这么说。\n\n「要用科学的方法做生意。天天等在地铁口排队,怎么能赚到钱?要用知识武装自己。学习知识可以把一个人变成聪明的人,一个聪明的人学习知识可以变成很聪明的人。一个很聪明的人学习知识,可以变成天才。」\n\n「有一次一个人打车去火车站,问怎么走。他说这么这么走。我说慢,上高架,再这么这么走。他说,那就绕远了。我说,没关系,你经常走你有经验,你那么走50块,你按我的走法,等里程表50块了,我就翻表,多的算我的。最后,按我的路走,多走了4公里,快了25分钟,我只收了50块。乘客很高兴。这4公里对我来说就是1块多钱的油钱。我相当于用1块多钱买了25分钟。我一小时的成本34.4块,我多合算啊!」\n\n「在大众公司,一般一个司机三四千,好的大概5千左右。顶级的司机大概每月能有7千。全大众两万个司机,大概只有两三个每月能拿到8千以上。我就是这中间的一个。而且很稳定,基本不会有大的波动。」\n\n到此为止,我越来越佩服这个出租车司机。\n\n「我常常说,我是一个快乐的车夫。有人说,你赚的钱多,当然快乐。我对他们说,你们正好错了。是因为我有快乐、积极的心态,所以赚的钱多。」\n\n说得多好啊!\n\n「要懂得体味工作带给你的美。堵在人民广场的时候,很多司机抱怨,又堵车了!真是倒霉。千万不要这样,用心体会一下这个城市的美,外面有很多漂亮的女孩 子经过,非常现代的高楼大厦,虽然买不起,但是可以用欣赏的眼光去享受。开车去机场,看着两边的绿色,冬天是白色的,多美啊。再看看里程表,100多了,就更美了!每一样工作都有美丽的地方,我们要懂得体会。」\n\n「我10年前是强生公司的总教练,8年前在公司做过3个不同部门的部门经理。后来我不干了,一个月就三五千块,没意思,就主动来做司机。我愿意做一个快乐的车夫。哈哈哈哈。」\n\n到了机场,我给他留了一张名片,说:「你有没有兴趣这个星期五,到我办公室,给微软的员工讲一讲你怎么开出租车的?你就当打着表,60公里1小时,你讲多久,我就付你多少钱。」\n\n我迫不及待地在飞机上记录下这堂生动的MBA课","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,17],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"561829394","name":"超级siya人","screen_name":"siyahashkey","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"siyahashkey","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987705723913228468","view_count":93,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762740949000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1987700438242844889","full_text":"@siyahashkey 沙发学习","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"561829394","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987700438242844889","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[8,21],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1372876871990272000","name":"丰密","screen_name":"KuiGas","indices":[0,7]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"KuiGas","lang":"ja","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987800996035408168","view_count":68,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762763663000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1987800109766336870","full_text":"@KuiGas gas的使用决定人生的方向","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1372876871990272000","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987800109766336870","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,23],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1899739859084103680","name":"林晚晚的猫","screen_name":"linwanwan823","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"linwanwan823","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987854697999606109","view_count":755,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762776467000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1987774526672011639","full_text":"@linwanwan823 这个角度好啊,敏感","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1899739859084103680","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987774526672011639","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-12","value":142,"startTime":1762819200000,"endTime":1762905600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,117],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E5FIcxWw92","expanded_url":"https://x.com/otzgary/status/1988114872710922545/photo/1","id_str":"1988114803672694784","indices":[118,141],"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5cz4WWbQAAc6dR.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E5FIcxWw92","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":440,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":772,"width":1194,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":669},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":772,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":677,"h":772},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":386,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":772}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[{"display_url":"CharlieRose.com","expanded_url":"http://CharlieRose.com","url":"https://t.co/UngDEv31eq","indices":[2480,2503]}],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E5FIcxWw92","expanded_url":"https://x.com/otzgary/status/1988114872710922545/photo/1","id_str":"1988114803672694784","indices":[118,141],"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5cz4WWbQAAc6dR.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E5FIcxWw92","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":440,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":772,"width":1194,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":669},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":772,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":677,"h":772},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":386,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":772}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"quoted_status_id_str":"1988096559029145718","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/JJZol2wHGH","expanded":"https://twitter.com/0xBeyondLee/status/1988096559029145718","display":"x.com/0xBeyondLee/st…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988114872710922545","view_count":3919,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1762838497000,"favorite_count":14,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1988114872710922545","full_text":"致各位股东:\n\n我将不再撰写伯克希尔的年度报告,也不会在年度会议上滔滔不绝。用英国人的话说,我将“保持沉默”。\n\n算是吧。\n\n格雷格·阿贝尔将于年底接任。他是一位出色的管理者,一个不知疲倦的工作者,以及一个的坦诚沟通者。祝他任期长久。\n\n我会通过每年的感恩节致辞继续与你们以及我的孩子们谈论伯克希尔的情况。伯克希尔的个人股东们是一群非常特别的人,他们总是慷慨地与那些不如他们幸运的人分享自己的收益。我很享受与你们保持联系的机会。今年请允许我先回忆一下往事。之后,我会谈谈我伯克希尔股份的分配计划。最后,我会分享一些业务和个人方面的看法。\n\n************\n\n随着感恩节的临近,我为自己活到 95 岁感到既感恩又惊讶。年轻时,这样的结果看起来希望渺茫。早些时候,我差点就死了。\n\n那是 1938 年,当时奥马哈的市民认为当地的医院要么是天主教的,要么是新教的,这种分类在当时看来是很自然的。\n\n我们的家庭医生哈雷·霍茨是个友善的天主教徒,他上门看病时总是背着一个黑色的医药包。霍茨医生叫我“小船长”,每次上门看病收费也不高。1938 年我肚子疼得厉害,霍茨医生来了,探查一番后告诉我,第二天早上就会好的。\n\n随后他回家吃了晚饭,还打了会儿桥牌。不过,霍茨医生始终忘不了我那些有点古怪的症状,当晚晚些时候便把我送到了圣凯瑟琳医院,给我做了紧急阑尾切除手术。接下来的三周里,我感觉自己就像置身于修道院,也开始喜欢上了我的新“讲台”。我喜欢说话——没错,那时也是——修女们对我很友好。\n\n最妙的是,三年级的马德森老师让班上的30个同学每人给我写一封信。我大概把男生们的信都扔了,而女生们的信我却反复读了很多遍;住院也有好处嘛。\n\n我康复期间最开心的事——其实头一周情况还很危险——是我那亲爱的艾迪姨妈送我的一份礼物。她给我带来了一套看起来非常专业的指纹采集工具,我马上给照顾我的修女们都采集了指纹。(我可能是圣凯瑟琳医院里她们见过的第一个新教徒孩子,她们也不知道该对我有什么期待。)\n\n我的想法——当然完全是异想天开——是总有一天会有个修女犯了法,而联邦调查局会发现他们居然没有给修女们采集指纹。联邦调查局及其局长 J. 埃德加·胡佛在 20 世纪 30 年代已为美国人所敬仰,我想象着胡佛先生亲自来到奥马哈来查看我那珍贵的指纹收藏。我还幻想我和 J. 埃德加能迅速找出并逮捕那个失足的修女。全国性的声誉似乎唾手可得。\n\n显然,我的幻想从未实现。但颇具讽刺意味的是,几年后我才发现,当时我本应给 J. 埃德加本人采集指纹,因为他后来因滥用职权而身败名裂。\n\n嗯,那是 20 世纪 30 年代的奥马哈,那时我和其他小伙伴都渴望拥有一辆雪橇、一辆自行车、一副棒球手套和一辆电动火车。让我们来看看那个时代其他几个孩子,他们就住在附近,对我影响很大,但我很久都不知道他们的存在。\n\n我先从查理·芒格说起,他是我 64 年的好友。20 世纪 30 年代,查理就住在离我 1958 年起就一直居住的房子仅一个街区的地方。\n\n早些时候,我差点就和查理成为朋友了。查理比我大6岁半,1940 年夏天他在祖父的杂货店打工,每天工作10个小时挣2美元。(节俭是巴菲特家族的传统。)第二年我也在店里干过类似的工作,但直到1959年我才见到查理,那时他35岁,我28岁。\n\n二战服役结束后,查理从哈佛法学院毕业,然后永久定居在加利福尼亚。然而,查理却一直将自己在奥马哈的早年岁月视为人生的重要阶段。六十多年来,查理对我影响巨大,他是一位极好的老师,也是我保护有加的“大哥”。我们之间虽有分歧,但从无争执。他从不说“我早就跟你说过”。\n\n1958 年,我买了我的第一套也是唯一一套房子。当然,它在奥马哈,离我成长的地方(大致说来)约两英里,离我岳父母家不到两个街区,离巴菲特杂货店约六个街区,开车到我工作了 64年的办公楼只需 6 到 7 分钟。\n\n让我们来谈谈另一位奥马哈人斯坦·利普西。1968 年,斯坦将《奥马哈太阳报》(周报)卖给了伯克希尔,十年后应我的请求搬到了布法罗。当时伯克希尔旗下一家子公司拥有的《布法罗晚报》正与该市唯一的周日报纸的出版商——其早报竞争对手展开生死较量,而我们正节节败退。\n\n斯坦最终打造出了我们新的《星期日》产品,此后数年,我们这项原本每年都在大量亏损的投资,每年(税前)的回报率都超过了100%。在20世纪80年代初,这笔3300万美元的投资对伯克希尔来说是一笔重要的资金。\n\n斯坦在我家附近大约五个街区的地方长大。斯坦的一位邻居是小沃尔特·斯科特。沃尔特,您应该还记得,他在 1999 年将中美能源公司带到了伯克希尔。他还是伯克希尔的董事,直到 2021年去世,也是我的挚友。几十年来,沃尔特一直是内布拉斯加州的慈善领袖,奥马哈和整个州都留下了他深深的印记。\n\n沃尔特上了本森高中,我也原本打算去那所学校上学——直到 1942 年,我父亲出人意料地在国会竞选中击败了连任四届的对手。生活总是充满惊喜。\n\n等等,还有更多。\n\n1959 年,唐·基奥和他的年轻家庭住在离我家街对面、距离芒格家旧居约 100 码远的一所房子里。当时唐是一名咖啡推销员,但后来他成为了可口可乐公司的总裁,并且是伯克希尔公司的忠实董事。\n\n我认识唐的时候,他一年挣 12000 美元,而他和妻子米基还要抚养五个孩子,这些孩子都得上天主教学校(学费不菲)。\n\n我们两家很快成了挚友。唐来自爱荷华州西北部的一个农场,毕业于奥马哈市的克雷顿大学。早年,他娶了奥马哈姑娘米基。加入可口可乐公司后,唐很快就在全球声名远扬。\n\n1985 年,唐担任可口可乐公司总裁期间,公司推出了命运多舛的新可口可乐。唐发表了一次著名的演讲,向公众道歉,并重新推出了“老”可口可乐。这一转变发生在唐解释说,寄给“至高无上的白痴”的信件会迅速送到他的办公桌上之后。他的“撤回”演讲堪称经典,可在YouTube 上观看。他愉快地承认,实际上可口可乐产品属于公众而非公司。随后销量大幅上升。\n\n您可以在 https://t.co/UngDEv31eq 上观看唐的一次精彩访谈。(汤姆·墨菲和凯·格雷厄姆也有几段精彩的内容。)和查理·芒格一样,唐始终是个地道的中西部男孩,热情、友善,骨子里透着十足的美国味儿。\n\n最后,出生于印度并在那里长大的阿吉特·贾恩(Ajit Jain)以及即将成为我们首席执行官的加拿大人格雷格·阿贝尔(Greg Abel),在 20 世纪末都曾在奥马哈生活了数年。事实上,在 20世纪 90 年代,格雷格就住在离我仅几个街区远的法纳姆街(Farnam Street),不过当时我们从未谋面。\n\n难道奥马哈的水里有什么神奇的成分吗?\n\n************\n\n我十几岁时在华盛顿特区生活过几年(当时我父亲在国会任职),1954 年我在曼哈顿找到了一份我以为会干一辈子的工作。在那里,本·格雷厄姆和杰里·纽曼对我很好,我也结交了许多终生的朋友。纽约有着独特的魅力——至今依然如此。然而,仅仅一年半之后,在 1956 年,我还是回到了奥马哈,从此再也没有离开过。\n\n后来,我的三个孩子以及几个孙辈都在奥马哈长大。我的孩子们一直就读于公立学校(从同一所高中毕业,这所高中培养了我父亲(1921 届)、我的第一任妻子苏西(1950 届),还有对内布拉斯加家具商场的发展起到关键作用的查理、斯坦·利普西、厄夫和罗恩·布卢姆金,以及1923 届的杰克·林格瓦尔特,他创立了国民赔偿保险公司,并于 1967 年将其出售给伯克希尔,成为我们庞大的财产险业务的基础)。\n\n************\n\n我们国家有很多伟大的公司、伟大的学校、伟大的医疗机构,每个地方都有其独特的优势,也都有才华出众的人。但我感到非常幸运,能有幸结交许多一生的朋友,能遇到我的两位妻子,在公立学校接受良好的教育,年幼时就能结识许多有趣且友善的奥马哈成年人,还能在内布拉斯加州国民警卫队结识各种各样的朋友。总之,内布拉斯加州一直是我真正的家。\n\n回首往事,我觉得伯克希尔和我之所以能取得更好的成绩,很大程度上是因为我们扎根于奥马哈。如果我出生在其他地方,结果可能就大不一样了。美国的中心地带是出生、养家和创业的绝佳之地。我出生时纯属运气好,抽到了一根长得出奇的签。\n\n************\n\n现在来说说我的高龄。我的基因并没有给我带来什么好处——家族长寿纪录(当然,追溯得越久远,家族记录就越模糊)一直是 92 岁,直到我打破了这个纪录。不过,我有睿智、友善且尽职尽责的奥马哈医生,从哈雷·霍茨医生开始,一直到现在。至少有三次,我的生命是被离家不远的医生们挽救的。(不过,我已经不再给护士们按指纹了。95 岁的人可以有很多怪癖……但也有个限度。)\n\n************\n\n活到老寿星这把年纪,得有极大的运气,每天都要躲过香蕉皮、自然灾害、醉酒或分心的司机、雷击等等,诸如此类的危险。\n\n但幸运女神反复无常,而且——没有别的词能形容——极其不公平。在很多情况下,我们的领导人和富人得到的幸运远远超过了他们应得的份额——而这些幸运儿往往不愿承认这一点。有些豪门子弟一出生就获得了终身的经济保障,而其他人则在幼年时期就面临着地狱般的困境,甚至更糟的是,身患残疾,失去了我视为理所当然的一切。在世界上很多人口稠密的地区,我可能会过着悲惨的生活,而我的姐妹们则会过上更糟糕的日子。\n\n我于 1930 年出生在美国,健康、聪明、白人、男性。哇!感谢幸运女神。我的姐妹们和我一样聪明,性格还比我好,但她们的人生前景却大不相同。幸运女神在我人生的大部分时间里都眷顾着我,但她可没空去照顾那些九十多岁的人。幸运也是有极限的。\n\n时光老人却恰恰相反,随着我年岁渐长,他愈发觉得我有趣了。他战无不胜;对他而言,每个人最终都算在他的“胜者”名单上。当平衡感、视力、听力和记忆力都持续走下坡路时,你就知道时光老人就在附近了。\n\n我步入老年的时间较晚——衰老的开始因人而异——但一旦出现,就无法否认。\n\n令我惊讶的是,我总体感觉良好。尽管行动迟缓,阅读也愈发吃力,但我每周仍会在办公室工作五天,与出色的人们共事。偶尔,我会冒出一些有用的想法,或者有人向我们提出一些原本可能不会有的提议。由于伯克希尔的规模以及市场状况,好的想法不多——但并非没有。\n\n************\n\n然而,我出乎意料的长寿却给我的家庭以及我慈善目标的实现带来了重大且不可避免的影响。\n\n让我们来探究一下它们。\n\n接下来是什么\n\n我的孩子们都已超过正常退休年龄,分别为 72 岁、70 岁和 67 岁。指望他们三人——在很多方面都已达到巅峰——能像我一样延缓衰老,这显然是不切实际的。为了提高他们在我指定的受托人取代他们之前处理完我几乎全部遗产的可能性,我需要加快向他们三个基金会的生前赠与。我的孩子们现在在经验和智慧方面都处于巅峰,但还未步入老年。这段“蜜月期”不会永远持续下去。\n\n幸运的是,调整方向很容易执行。不过,还有一个额外的因素需要考虑:我希望在伯克希尔的股东们像我和查理那样对格雷格充满信心之前,保留相当数量的“A”类股。这种程度的信任应该不会太久。我的孩子们已经百分之百支持格雷格,伯克希尔的董事们也是如此。\n\n如今这三个孩子都已成熟,头脑聪明,精力充沛,且富有本能,足以支配一大笔财富。在我去世很久之后,他们仍能活跃于世,这将是他们的优势所在。如有必要,他们可以采取既具前瞻性又具应对性的策略来应对联邦税收政策或其他影响慈善事业的发展。他们很可能需要适应周围世界发生的巨大变化。死后遥控指挥向来成效不佳,而我从未有过这种冲动。\n\n幸运的是,三个孩子都从母亲那里遗传了显性基因。随着岁月的流逝,我也逐渐成为他们思考和行为的更好榜样。然而,我永远无法与他们的母亲相提并论。\n\n我的孩子们有三位候补监护人,以防出现任何意外死亡或残疾的情况。这三位候补监护人不分先后顺序,也不与任何特定的孩子绑定。他们都是杰出的人,对世事洞明。他们没有任何相互冲突的动机。\n\n我已向孩子们保证,他们无需创造奇迹,也无需惧怕失败或失望。这些都是不可避免的,我也经历过。他们只需在政府活动和/或私人慈善事业通常所取得的成就基础上有所进步即可,同时要认识到这些财富再分配的方式也存在不足之处。\n\n早些时候,我曾构想过种种宏伟的慈善计划。尽管我性格执拗,但这些计划最终都未能实现。在我漫长的人生中,我也目睹了政客们拙劣的财富转移、家族式的抉择,当然还有那些不称职或古怪的慈善家。\n\n如果我的孩子们能干得不错,他们可以肯定,我和他们的母亲都会感到高兴。他们的直觉很好,而且他们每个人都有多年的实践经历,起初只是很小的数目,后来逐渐增加到每年超过5亿美元。\n\n这三个人都喜欢长时间工作来帮助他人,只是方式各不相同。\n\n************\n\n我加快向子女基金会捐赠的步伐,这绝不是因为我对伯克希尔的前景有了任何改变的看法。格雷格·阿贝尔的表现远超我当初认为他应成为伯克希尔下一任首席执行官时对他的期望。他对我们的许多业务和人员的了解远胜于我,而且对于很多首席执行官都不曾考虑的问题,他也能很快掌握。无论您说的是一位首席执行官、一位管理顾问、一位学者,还是一位政府官员,我都想不出有谁能比格雷格更适合来管理您和我的储蓄。\n\n例如,格雷格对我们的财产和意外险业务的潜在收益和风险的了解,远胜于许多长期从事这一业务的高管。我希望他的健康状况能保持良好几十年。如果运气好,伯克希尔在接下来的一个世纪里只需要五六个首席执行官。尤其要避免那些一心想着 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413 人\n\n我就能达到 10000 followers\n\n朋友\n\n我该去哪里寻找你? https://t.co/TTyhhTpN0G","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,37],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988192647794803098","view_count":7665,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1762857040000,"favorite_count":25,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":27,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1988192647794803098","full_text":"20岁多岁的男人\n\n请给30岁以上的男人一些建议 \n\n主题可以是任何方面","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,42],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1328686769508732929","name":"解构师 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2006\n\n有一天,我从徐家汇赶去机场,在美罗大厦前搜索出租车。一辆「大众」发现了我,非常专业地、径直地停在我的面前。这一停,便有了后面这个让我深感震撼的故事,像上了一堂生动的MBA案例课\n\n「去哪里……好的,机场。我在徐家汇就喜欢做美罗大厦的生意。这里我只做两个地方:美罗大厦,均瑶大厦。接到你之前,我在美罗大厦门口兜了两圈,终于被我看到你了!从写字楼里出来的,肯定去的不近……」\n\n「哦?你很有方法嘛!」我附和了一下。\n\n「做出租车司机,也要用科学的方法。」他说。\n\n我一愣,顿时很有些兴趣:「什么科学的方法?」\n\n「要懂得统计。我做过精确的计算,我每天要开17个小时的车,每小时成本34.4元……」\n\n「怎么算出来的?」我追问。\n\n「你算啊,我每天要交380元给公司,一天17小时,平均每小时固定成本约22元;油费210元左右,平均每小时12.4元油费。加起来是不是就是 34.4元?」我有些惊讶。我打了10年的车,第一次听到有出租车司机这么计算成本。以前的司机都和我说,每公里成本0.3元,另外每天交多少钱之类的。\n\n「成本是不能按公里算的,只能按时间算。我做过数据分析,每次载客之间的空驶时间平均为7分钟。如果上来一个起步价,10元,大概要开10分钟。也就 是每一个10元的客人要花17分钟的成本,也就是9.7元。不赚钱啊!如果说做浦东、杭州、青浦的客人是吃饭,做10元的客人连吃菜都算不上,只能算是撒 了些味精。」\n\n这位师傅听上去真不像出租车司机,倒像是一位成本核算师。「那你怎么办呢?」我更感兴趣了,继续问。\n\n「千万不能被客户拉了满街跑。要通过选择停车的地点、时间和客户,主动地决定你要去的地方。」我非常惊讶,这听上去很有意思。「有人说做出租车司机是靠运气吃饭的职业。我以为不是。你要站在客户的位置上,从客户的角度去思考。」这句话听上去非常专业,有点像很多商业管理培训老师说的「put yourself into others’ shoes(设身处地为别人着想)」。\n\n「给你举个例子,医院门口,一个拿着药的,一个拿着脸盆的,你带哪一个。」我想了想,说不知道。\n\n「你要带那个拿脸盆的。一般人小病小痛的到医院看一看,拿点药,不一定会去很远的医院。拿着脸盆打车的,那是出院的。住院哪有不死人的?今天二楼的谁 死了,明天三楼又死了一个。从医院出来的人通常会有重获新生的感觉。那天这个人说:走,去青浦。眼睛都不眨一下。你说他会打车到人民广场,再去坐青浦线吗?绝对不会!」\n\n我不由得开始佩服。\n\n「再给你举个例子。那天中午人民广场,好几个人在前面招手。一个年轻女子,拿着小包,刚买完东西。还有一对青年男女,一看就是逛街的。接下去是个里面穿绒衬衫、外面套羽绒服的男子,提着笔记本电脑。我看一个人只要3秒钟。我毫不犹豫地停在这个男子面前。这个男的上车后忍不住问,为什么你毫不犹豫地开到我面前?前面还有别人。我回答说,还有十几分钟就1点了。那个女孩子是中午溜出来买东西的,估计公司很近;那对男女是游客,没拿什么东西,不会去很远;你是出去办事的,拿着笔记本电脑,一看就是公务,这个时候出去,估计应该不会近。那个男的就说,你说对了,去宝山。」\n\n「那些在超市门口、地铁口打车,穿着睡衣的人可能去很远的地方吗?可能去机场吗?」\n\n有道理!我越听越有意思。\n\n「很多司机都抱怨,生意不好做啊,油价又涨了啊,都从别人身上找原因。我说,从别人身上找原因,你永远不能提高。从自己身上找找看,问题出在哪里。」这话听起来好熟,好像是「如果你不能改变世界,就改变你自己」。\n\n「有一次,在南丹路一个人拦车,去田林。后来又有一次,一个人在南丹路拦车,还是去田林。我就问,怎么你们从南丹路出来的人,很多都是去田林呢?人家说,在南丹路有一个公共汽车总站,我们都是坐公共汽车从浦东到这里,然后搭车去田林的。我恍然大悟。你看我们开过的这条路,没有写字楼,没有酒店,什么都没有,只有公共汽车站,在这里拦车的多半都是刚下公共汽车的,再选择一条最短路径打车,通常不会高于15元。」\n\n「所以,态度决定一切!」我听十几个总裁讲过这句话,第一次听出租车司机这么说。\n\n「要用科学的方法做生意。天天等在地铁口排队,怎么能赚到钱?要用知识武装自己。学习知识可以把一个人变成聪明的人,一个聪明的人学习知识可以变成很聪明的人。一个很聪明的人学习知识,可以变成天才。」\n\n「有一次一个人打车去火车站,问怎么走。他说这么这么走。我说慢,上高架,再这么这么走。他说,那就绕远了。我说,没关系,你经常走你有经验,你那么走50块,你按我的走法,等里程表50块了,我就翻表,多的算我的。最后,按我的路走,多走了4公里,快了25分钟,我只收了50块。乘客很高兴。这4公里对我来说就是1块多钱的油钱。我相当于用1块多钱买了25分钟。我一小时的成本34.4块,我多合算啊!」\n\n「在大众公司,一般一个司机三四千,好的大概5千左右。顶级的司机大概每月能有7千。全大众两万个司机,大概只有两三个每月能拿到8千以上。我就是这中间的一个。而且很稳定,基本不会有大的波动。」\n\n到此为止,我越来越佩服这个出租车司机。\n\n「我常常说,我是一个快乐的车夫。有人说,你赚的钱多,当然快乐。我对他们说,你们正好错了。是因为我有快乐、积极的心态,所以赚的钱多。」\n\n说得多好啊!\n\n「要懂得体味工作带给你的美。堵在人民广场的时候,很多司机抱怨,又堵车了!真是倒霉。千万不要这样,用心体会一下这个城市的美,外面有很多漂亮的女孩 子经过,非常现代的高楼大厦,虽然买不起,但是可以用欣赏的眼光去享受。开车去机场,看着两边的绿色,冬天是白色的,多美啊。再看看里程表,100多了,就更美了!每一样工作都有美丽的地方,我们要懂得体会。」\n\n「我10年前是强生公司的总教练,8年前在公司做过3个不同部门的部门经理。后来我不干了,一个月就三五千块,没意思,就主动来做司机。我愿意做一个快乐的车夫。哈哈哈哈。」\n\n到了机场,我给他留了一张名片,说:「你有没有兴趣这个星期五,到我办公室,给微软的员工讲一讲你怎么开出租车的?你就当打着表,60公里1小时,你讲多久,我就付你多少钱。」\n\n我迫不及待地在飞机上记录下这堂生动的MBA课","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,17],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"561829394","name":"超级siya人","screen_name":"siyahashkey","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"siyahashkey","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987705723913228468","view_count":93,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762740949000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1987700438242844889","full_text":"@siyahashkey 沙发学习","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"561829394","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987700438242844889","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[8,21],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1372876871990272000","name":"丰密","screen_name":"KuiGas","indices":[0,7]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"KuiGas","lang":"ja","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987800996035408168","view_count":68,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762763663000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1987800109766336870","full_text":"@KuiGas gas的使用决定人生的方向","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1372876871990272000","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987800109766336870","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,23],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1899739859084103680","name":"林晚晚的猫","screen_name":"linwanwan823","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"linwanwan823","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987854697999606109","view_count":755,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762776467000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1987774526672011639","full_text":"@linwanwan823 这个角度好啊,敏感","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1899739859084103680","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987774526672011639","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-12","value":6,"startTime":1762819200000,"endTime":1762905600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,117],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E5FIcxWw92","expanded_url":"https://x.com/otzgary/status/1988114872710922545/photo/1","id_str":"1988114803672694784","indices":[118,141],"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5cz4WWbQAAc6dR.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E5FIcxWw92","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":440,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":772,"width":1194,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":669},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":772,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":677,"h":772},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":386,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":772}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[{"display_url":"CharlieRose.com","expanded_url":"http://CharlieRose.com","url":"https://t.co/UngDEv31eq","indices":[2480,2503]}],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E5FIcxWw92","expanded_url":"https://x.com/otzgary/status/1988114872710922545/photo/1","id_str":"1988114803672694784","indices":[118,141],"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5cz4WWbQAAc6dR.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E5FIcxWw92","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":440,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":772,"width":1194,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":669},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":772,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":677,"h":772},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":386,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":772}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"quoted_status_id_str":"1988096559029145718","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/JJZol2wHGH","expanded":"https://twitter.com/0xBeyondLee/status/1988096559029145718","display":"x.com/0xBeyondLee/st…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988114872710922545","view_count":3919,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1762838497000,"favorite_count":14,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1988114872710922545","full_text":"致各位股东:\n\n我将不再撰写伯克希尔的年度报告,也不会在年度会议上滔滔不绝。用英国人的话说,我将“保持沉默”。\n\n算是吧。\n\n格雷格·阿贝尔将于年底接任。他是一位出色的管理者,一个不知疲倦的工作者,以及一个的坦诚沟通者。祝他任期长久。\n\n我会通过每年的感恩节致辞继续与你们以及我的孩子们谈论伯克希尔的情况。伯克希尔的个人股东们是一群非常特别的人,他们总是慷慨地与那些不如他们幸运的人分享自己的收益。我很享受与你们保持联系的机会。今年请允许我先回忆一下往事。之后,我会谈谈我伯克希尔股份的分配计划。最后,我会分享一些业务和个人方面的看法。\n\n************\n\n随着感恩节的临近,我为自己活到 95 岁感到既感恩又惊讶。年轻时,这样的结果看起来希望渺茫。早些时候,我差点就死了。\n\n那是 1938 年,当时奥马哈的市民认为当地的医院要么是天主教的,要么是新教的,这种分类在当时看来是很自然的。\n\n我们的家庭医生哈雷·霍茨是个友善的天主教徒,他上门看病时总是背着一个黑色的医药包。霍茨医生叫我“小船长”,每次上门看病收费也不高。1938 年我肚子疼得厉害,霍茨医生来了,探查一番后告诉我,第二天早上就会好的。\n\n随后他回家吃了晚饭,还打了会儿桥牌。不过,霍茨医生始终忘不了我那些有点古怪的症状,当晚晚些时候便把我送到了圣凯瑟琳医院,给我做了紧急阑尾切除手术。接下来的三周里,我感觉自己就像置身于修道院,也开始喜欢上了我的新“讲台”。我喜欢说话——没错,那时也是——修女们对我很友好。\n\n最妙的是,三年级的马德森老师让班上的30个同学每人给我写一封信。我大概把男生们的信都扔了,而女生们的信我却反复读了很多遍;住院也有好处嘛。\n\n我康复期间最开心的事——其实头一周情况还很危险——是我那亲爱的艾迪姨妈送我的一份礼物。她给我带来了一套看起来非常专业的指纹采集工具,我马上给照顾我的修女们都采集了指纹。(我可能是圣凯瑟琳医院里她们见过的第一个新教徒孩子,她们也不知道该对我有什么期待。)\n\n我的想法——当然完全是异想天开——是总有一天会有个修女犯了法,而联邦调查局会发现他们居然没有给修女们采集指纹。联邦调查局及其局长 J. 埃德加·胡佛在 20 世纪 30 年代已为美国人所敬仰,我想象着胡佛先生亲自来到奥马哈来查看我那珍贵的指纹收藏。我还幻想我和 J. 埃德加能迅速找出并逮捕那个失足的修女。全国性的声誉似乎唾手可得。\n\n显然,我的幻想从未实现。但颇具讽刺意味的是,几年后我才发现,当时我本应给 J. 埃德加本人采集指纹,因为他后来因滥用职权而身败名裂。\n\n嗯,那是 20 世纪 30 年代的奥马哈,那时我和其他小伙伴都渴望拥有一辆雪橇、一辆自行车、一副棒球手套和一辆电动火车。让我们来看看那个时代其他几个孩子,他们就住在附近,对我影响很大,但我很久都不知道他们的存在。\n\n我先从查理·芒格说起,他是我 64 年的好友。20 世纪 30 年代,查理就住在离我 1958 年起就一直居住的房子仅一个街区的地方。\n\n早些时候,我差点就和查理成为朋友了。查理比我大6岁半,1940 年夏天他在祖父的杂货店打工,每天工作10个小时挣2美元。(节俭是巴菲特家族的传统。)第二年我也在店里干过类似的工作,但直到1959年我才见到查理,那时他35岁,我28岁。\n\n二战服役结束后,查理从哈佛法学院毕业,然后永久定居在加利福尼亚。然而,查理却一直将自己在奥马哈的早年岁月视为人生的重要阶段。六十多年来,查理对我影响巨大,他是一位极好的老师,也是我保护有加的“大哥”。我们之间虽有分歧,但从无争执。他从不说“我早就跟你说过”。\n\n1958 年,我买了我的第一套也是唯一一套房子。当然,它在奥马哈,离我成长的地方(大致说来)约两英里,离我岳父母家不到两个街区,离巴菲特杂货店约六个街区,开车到我工作了 64年的办公楼只需 6 到 7 分钟。\n\n让我们来谈谈另一位奥马哈人斯坦·利普西。1968 年,斯坦将《奥马哈太阳报》(周报)卖给了伯克希尔,十年后应我的请求搬到了布法罗。当时伯克希尔旗下一家子公司拥有的《布法罗晚报》正与该市唯一的周日报纸的出版商——其早报竞争对手展开生死较量,而我们正节节败退。\n\n斯坦最终打造出了我们新的《星期日》产品,此后数年,我们这项原本每年都在大量亏损的投资,每年(税前)的回报率都超过了100%。在20世纪80年代初,这笔3300万美元的投资对伯克希尔来说是一笔重要的资金。\n\n斯坦在我家附近大约五个街区的地方长大。斯坦的一位邻居是小沃尔特·斯科特。沃尔特,您应该还记得,他在 1999 年将中美能源公司带到了伯克希尔。他还是伯克希尔的董事,直到 2021年去世,也是我的挚友。几十年来,沃尔特一直是内布拉斯加州的慈善领袖,奥马哈和整个州都留下了他深深的印记。\n\n沃尔特上了本森高中,我也原本打算去那所学校上学——直到 1942 年,我父亲出人意料地在国会竞选中击败了连任四届的对手。生活总是充满惊喜。\n\n等等,还有更多。\n\n1959 年,唐·基奥和他的年轻家庭住在离我家街对面、距离芒格家旧居约 100 码远的一所房子里。当时唐是一名咖啡推销员,但后来他成为了可口可乐公司的总裁,并且是伯克希尔公司的忠实董事。\n\n我认识唐的时候,他一年挣 12000 美元,而他和妻子米基还要抚养五个孩子,这些孩子都得上天主教学校(学费不菲)。\n\n我们两家很快成了挚友。唐来自爱荷华州西北部的一个农场,毕业于奥马哈市的克雷顿大学。早年,他娶了奥马哈姑娘米基。加入可口可乐公司后,唐很快就在全球声名远扬。\n\n1985 年,唐担任可口可乐公司总裁期间,公司推出了命运多舛的新可口可乐。唐发表了一次著名的演讲,向公众道歉,并重新推出了“老”可口可乐。这一转变发生在唐解释说,寄给“至高无上的白痴”的信件会迅速送到他的办公桌上之后。他的“撤回”演讲堪称经典,可在YouTube 上观看。他愉快地承认,实际上可口可乐产品属于公众而非公司。随后销量大幅上升。\n\n您可以在 https://t.co/UngDEv31eq 上观看唐的一次精彩访谈。(汤姆·墨菲和凯·格雷厄姆也有几段精彩的内容。)和查理·芒格一样,唐始终是个地道的中西部男孩,热情、友善,骨子里透着十足的美国味儿。\n\n最后,出生于印度并在那里长大的阿吉特·贾恩(Ajit Jain)以及即将成为我们首席执行官的加拿大人格雷格·阿贝尔(Greg Abel),在 20 世纪末都曾在奥马哈生活了数年。事实上,在 20世纪 90 年代,格雷格就住在离我仅几个街区远的法纳姆街(Farnam Street),不过当时我们从未谋面。\n\n难道奥马哈的水里有什么神奇的成分吗?\n\n************\n\n我十几岁时在华盛顿特区生活过几年(当时我父亲在国会任职),1954 年我在曼哈顿找到了一份我以为会干一辈子的工作。在那里,本·格雷厄姆和杰里·纽曼对我很好,我也结交了许多终生的朋友。纽约有着独特的魅力——至今依然如此。然而,仅仅一年半之后,在 1956 年,我还是回到了奥马哈,从此再也没有离开过。\n\n后来,我的三个孩子以及几个孙辈都在奥马哈长大。我的孩子们一直就读于公立学校(从同一所高中毕业,这所高中培养了我父亲(1921 届)、我的第一任妻子苏西(1950 届),还有对内布拉斯加家具商场的发展起到关键作用的查理、斯坦·利普西、厄夫和罗恩·布卢姆金,以及1923 届的杰克·林格瓦尔特,他创立了国民赔偿保险公司,并于 1967 年将其出售给伯克希尔,成为我们庞大的财产险业务的基础)。\n\n************\n\n我们国家有很多伟大的公司、伟大的学校、伟大的医疗机构,每个地方都有其独特的优势,也都有才华出众的人。但我感到非常幸运,能有幸结交许多一生的朋友,能遇到我的两位妻子,在公立学校接受良好的教育,年幼时就能结识许多有趣且友善的奥马哈成年人,还能在内布拉斯加州国民警卫队结识各种各样的朋友。总之,内布拉斯加州一直是我真正的家。\n\n回首往事,我觉得伯克希尔和我之所以能取得更好的成绩,很大程度上是因为我们扎根于奥马哈。如果我出生在其他地方,结果可能就大不一样了。美国的中心地带是出生、养家和创业的绝佳之地。我出生时纯属运气好,抽到了一根长得出奇的签。\n\n************\n\n现在来说说我的高龄。我的基因并没有给我带来什么好处——家族长寿纪录(当然,追溯得越久远,家族记录就越模糊)一直是 92 岁,直到我打破了这个纪录。不过,我有睿智、友善且尽职尽责的奥马哈医生,从哈雷·霍茨医生开始,一直到现在。至少有三次,我的生命是被离家不远的医生们挽救的。(不过,我已经不再给护士们按指纹了。95 岁的人可以有很多怪癖……但也有个限度。)\n\n************\n\n活到老寿星这把年纪,得有极大的运气,每天都要躲过香蕉皮、自然灾害、醉酒或分心的司机、雷击等等,诸如此类的危险。\n\n但幸运女神反复无常,而且——没有别的词能形容——极其不公平。在很多情况下,我们的领导人和富人得到的幸运远远超过了他们应得的份额——而这些幸运儿往往不愿承认这一点。有些豪门子弟一出生就获得了终身的经济保障,而其他人则在幼年时期就面临着地狱般的困境,甚至更糟的是,身患残疾,失去了我视为理所当然的一切。在世界上很多人口稠密的地区,我可能会过着悲惨的生活,而我的姐妹们则会过上更糟糕的日子。\n\n我于 1930 年出生在美国,健康、聪明、白人、男性。哇!感谢幸运女神。我的姐妹们和我一样聪明,性格还比我好,但她们的人生前景却大不相同。幸运女神在我人生的大部分时间里都眷顾着我,但她可没空去照顾那些九十多岁的人。幸运也是有极限的。\n\n时光老人却恰恰相反,随着我年岁渐长,他愈发觉得我有趣了。他战无不胜;对他而言,每个人最终都算在他的“胜者”名单上。当平衡感、视力、听力和记忆力都持续走下坡路时,你就知道时光老人就在附近了。\n\n我步入老年的时间较晚——衰老的开始因人而异——但一旦出现,就无法否认。\n\n令我惊讶的是,我总体感觉良好。尽管行动迟缓,阅读也愈发吃力,但我每周仍会在办公室工作五天,与出色的人们共事。偶尔,我会冒出一些有用的想法,或者有人向我们提出一些原本可能不会有的提议。由于伯克希尔的规模以及市场状况,好的想法不多——但并非没有。\n\n************\n\n然而,我出乎意料的长寿却给我的家庭以及我慈善目标的实现带来了重大且不可避免的影响。\n\n让我们来探究一下它们。\n\n接下来是什么\n\n我的孩子们都已超过正常退休年龄,分别为 72 岁、70 岁和 67 岁。指望他们三人——在很多方面都已达到巅峰——能像我一样延缓衰老,这显然是不切实际的。为了提高他们在我指定的受托人取代他们之前处理完我几乎全部遗产的可能性,我需要加快向他们三个基金会的生前赠与。我的孩子们现在在经验和智慧方面都处于巅峰,但还未步入老年。这段“蜜月期”不会永远持续下去。\n\n幸运的是,调整方向很容易执行。不过,还有一个额外的因素需要考虑:我希望在伯克希尔的股东们像我和查理那样对格雷格充满信心之前,保留相当数量的“A”类股。这种程度的信任应该不会太久。我的孩子们已经百分之百支持格雷格,伯克希尔的董事们也是如此。\n\n如今这三个孩子都已成熟,头脑聪明,精力充沛,且富有本能,足以支配一大笔财富。在我去世很久之后,他们仍能活跃于世,这将是他们的优势所在。如有必要,他们可以采取既具前瞻性又具应对性的策略来应对联邦税收政策或其他影响慈善事业的发展。他们很可能需要适应周围世界发生的巨大变化。死后遥控指挥向来成效不佳,而我从未有过这种冲动。\n\n幸运的是,三个孩子都从母亲那里遗传了显性基因。随着岁月的流逝,我也逐渐成为他们思考和行为的更好榜样。然而,我永远无法与他们的母亲相提并论。\n\n我的孩子们有三位候补监护人,以防出现任何意外死亡或残疾的情况。这三位候补监护人不分先后顺序,也不与任何特定的孩子绑定。他们都是杰出的人,对世事洞明。他们没有任何相互冲突的动机。\n\n我已向孩子们保证,他们无需创造奇迹,也无需惧怕失败或失望。这些都是不可避免的,我也经历过。他们只需在政府活动和/或私人慈善事业通常所取得的成就基础上有所进步即可,同时要认识到这些财富再分配的方式也存在不足之处。\n\n早些时候,我曾构想过种种宏伟的慈善计划。尽管我性格执拗,但这些计划最终都未能实现。在我漫长的人生中,我也目睹了政客们拙劣的财富转移、家族式的抉择,当然还有那些不称职或古怪的慈善家。\n\n如果我的孩子们能干得不错,他们可以肯定,我和他们的母亲都会感到高兴。他们的直觉很好,而且他们每个人都有多年的实践经历,起初只是很小的数目,后来逐渐增加到每年超过5亿美元。\n\n这三个人都喜欢长时间工作来帮助他人,只是方式各不相同。\n\n************\n\n我加快向子女基金会捐赠的步伐,这绝不是因为我对伯克希尔的前景有了任何改变的看法。格雷格·阿贝尔的表现远超我当初认为他应成为伯克希尔下一任首席执行官时对他的期望。他对我们的许多业务和人员的了解远胜于我,而且对于很多首席执行官都不曾考虑的问题,他也能很快掌握。无论您说的是一位首席执行官、一位管理顾问、一位学者,还是一位政府官员,我都想不出有谁能比格雷格更适合来管理您和我的储蓄。\n\n例如,格雷格对我们的财产和意外险业务的潜在收益和风险的了解,远胜于许多长期从事这一业务的高管。我希望他的健康状况能保持良好几十年。如果运气好,伯克希尔在接下来的一个世纪里只需要五六个首席执行官。尤其要避免那些一心想着 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413 人\n\n我就能达到 10000 followers\n\n朋友\n\n我该去哪里寻找你? https://t.co/TTyhhTpN0G","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,37],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988192647794803098","view_count":7665,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1762857040000,"favorite_count":25,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":27,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1988192647794803098","full_text":"20岁多岁的男人\n\n请给30岁以上的男人一些建议 \n\n主题可以是任何方面","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,42],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1328686769508732929","name":"解构师 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2006\n\n有一天,我从徐家汇赶去机场,在美罗大厦前搜索出租车。一辆「大众」发现了我,非常专业地、径直地停在我的面前。这一停,便有了后面这个让我深感震撼的故事,像上了一堂生动的MBA案例课\n\n「去哪里……好的,机场。我在徐家汇就喜欢做美罗大厦的生意。这里我只做两个地方:美罗大厦,均瑶大厦。接到你之前,我在美罗大厦门口兜了两圈,终于被我看到你了!从写字楼里出来的,肯定去的不近……」\n\n「哦?你很有方法嘛!」我附和了一下。\n\n「做出租车司机,也要用科学的方法。」他说。\n\n我一愣,顿时很有些兴趣:「什么科学的方法?」\n\n「要懂得统计。我做过精确的计算,我每天要开17个小时的车,每小时成本34.4元……」\n\n「怎么算出来的?」我追问。\n\n「你算啊,我每天要交380元给公司,一天17小时,平均每小时固定成本约22元;油费210元左右,平均每小时12.4元油费。加起来是不是就是 34.4元?」我有些惊讶。我打了10年的车,第一次听到有出租车司机这么计算成本。以前的司机都和我说,每公里成本0.3元,另外每天交多少钱之类的。\n\n「成本是不能按公里算的,只能按时间算。我做过数据分析,每次载客之间的空驶时间平均为7分钟。如果上来一个起步价,10元,大概要开10分钟。也就 是每一个10元的客人要花17分钟的成本,也就是9.7元。不赚钱啊!如果说做浦东、杭州、青浦的客人是吃饭,做10元的客人连吃菜都算不上,只能算是撒 了些味精。」\n\n这位师傅听上去真不像出租车司机,倒像是一位成本核算师。「那你怎么办呢?」我更感兴趣了,继续问。\n\n「千万不能被客户拉了满街跑。要通过选择停车的地点、时间和客户,主动地决定你要去的地方。」我非常惊讶,这听上去很有意思。「有人说做出租车司机是靠运气吃饭的职业。我以为不是。你要站在客户的位置上,从客户的角度去思考。」这句话听上去非常专业,有点像很多商业管理培训老师说的「put yourself into others’ shoes(设身处地为别人着想)」。\n\n「给你举个例子,医院门口,一个拿着药的,一个拿着脸盆的,你带哪一个。」我想了想,说不知道。\n\n「你要带那个拿脸盆的。一般人小病小痛的到医院看一看,拿点药,不一定会去很远的医院。拿着脸盆打车的,那是出院的。住院哪有不死人的?今天二楼的谁 死了,明天三楼又死了一个。从医院出来的人通常会有重获新生的感觉。那天这个人说:走,去青浦。眼睛都不眨一下。你说他会打车到人民广场,再去坐青浦线吗?绝对不会!」\n\n我不由得开始佩服。\n\n「再给你举个例子。那天中午人民广场,好几个人在前面招手。一个年轻女子,拿着小包,刚买完东西。还有一对青年男女,一看就是逛街的。接下去是个里面穿绒衬衫、外面套羽绒服的男子,提着笔记本电脑。我看一个人只要3秒钟。我毫不犹豫地停在这个男子面前。这个男的上车后忍不住问,为什么你毫不犹豫地开到我面前?前面还有别人。我回答说,还有十几分钟就1点了。那个女孩子是中午溜出来买东西的,估计公司很近;那对男女是游客,没拿什么东西,不会去很远;你是出去办事的,拿着笔记本电脑,一看就是公务,这个时候出去,估计应该不会近。那个男的就说,你说对了,去宝山。」\n\n「那些在超市门口、地铁口打车,穿着睡衣的人可能去很远的地方吗?可能去机场吗?」\n\n有道理!我越听越有意思。\n\n「很多司机都抱怨,生意不好做啊,油价又涨了啊,都从别人身上找原因。我说,从别人身上找原因,你永远不能提高。从自己身上找找看,问题出在哪里。」这话听起来好熟,好像是「如果你不能改变世界,就改变你自己」。\n\n「有一次,在南丹路一个人拦车,去田林。后来又有一次,一个人在南丹路拦车,还是去田林。我就问,怎么你们从南丹路出来的人,很多都是去田林呢?人家说,在南丹路有一个公共汽车总站,我们都是坐公共汽车从浦东到这里,然后搭车去田林的。我恍然大悟。你看我们开过的这条路,没有写字楼,没有酒店,什么都没有,只有公共汽车站,在这里拦车的多半都是刚下公共汽车的,再选择一条最短路径打车,通常不会高于15元。」\n\n「所以,态度决定一切!」我听十几个总裁讲过这句话,第一次听出租车司机这么说。\n\n「要用科学的方法做生意。天天等在地铁口排队,怎么能赚到钱?要用知识武装自己。学习知识可以把一个人变成聪明的人,一个聪明的人学习知识可以变成很聪明的人。一个很聪明的人学习知识,可以变成天才。」\n\n「有一次一个人打车去火车站,问怎么走。他说这么这么走。我说慢,上高架,再这么这么走。他说,那就绕远了。我说,没关系,你经常走你有经验,你那么走50块,你按我的走法,等里程表50块了,我就翻表,多的算我的。最后,按我的路走,多走了4公里,快了25分钟,我只收了50块。乘客很高兴。这4公里对我来说就是1块多钱的油钱。我相当于用1块多钱买了25分钟。我一小时的成本34.4块,我多合算啊!」\n\n「在大众公司,一般一个司机三四千,好的大概5千左右。顶级的司机大概每月能有7千。全大众两万个司机,大概只有两三个每月能拿到8千以上。我就是这中间的一个。而且很稳定,基本不会有大的波动。」\n\n到此为止,我越来越佩服这个出租车司机。\n\n「我常常说,我是一个快乐的车夫。有人说,你赚的钱多,当然快乐。我对他们说,你们正好错了。是因为我有快乐、积极的心态,所以赚的钱多。」\n\n说得多好啊!\n\n「要懂得体味工作带给你的美。堵在人民广场的时候,很多司机抱怨,又堵车了!真是倒霉。千万不要这样,用心体会一下这个城市的美,外面有很多漂亮的女孩 子经过,非常现代的高楼大厦,虽然买不起,但是可以用欣赏的眼光去享受。开车去机场,看着两边的绿色,冬天是白色的,多美啊。再看看里程表,100多了,就更美了!每一样工作都有美丽的地方,我们要懂得体会。」\n\n「我10年前是强生公司的总教练,8年前在公司做过3个不同部门的部门经理。后来我不干了,一个月就三五千块,没意思,就主动来做司机。我愿意做一个快乐的车夫。哈哈哈哈。」\n\n到了机场,我给他留了一张名片,说:「你有没有兴趣这个星期五,到我办公室,给微软的员工讲一讲你怎么开出租车的?你就当打着表,60公里1小时,你讲多久,我就付你多少钱。」\n\n我迫不及待地在飞机上记录下这堂生动的MBA课","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,17],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"561829394","name":"超级siya人","screen_name":"siyahashkey","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"siyahashkey","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987705723913228468","view_count":93,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762740949000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1987700438242844889","full_text":"@siyahashkey 沙发学习","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"561829394","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987700438242844889","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[8,21],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1372876871990272000","name":"丰密","screen_name":"KuiGas","indices":[0,7]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"KuiGas","lang":"ja","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987800996035408168","view_count":68,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762763663000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1987800109766336870","full_text":"@KuiGas gas的使用决定人生的方向","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1372876871990272000","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987800109766336870","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,23],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1899739859084103680","name":"林晚晚的猫","screen_name":"linwanwan823","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"linwanwan823","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987854697999606109","view_count":755,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762776467000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1987774526672011639","full_text":"@linwanwan823 这个角度好啊,敏感","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1899739859084103680","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987774526672011639","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-12","value":2,"startTime":1762819200000,"endTime":1762905600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,117],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E5FIcxWw92","expanded_url":"https://x.com/otzgary/status/1988114872710922545/photo/1","id_str":"1988114803672694784","indices":[118,141],"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5cz4WWbQAAc6dR.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E5FIcxWw92","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":440,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":772,"width":1194,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":669},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":772,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":677,"h":772},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":386,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":772}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[{"display_url":"CharlieRose.com","expanded_url":"http://CharlieRose.com","url":"https://t.co/UngDEv31eq","indices":[2480,2503]}],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E5FIcxWw92","expanded_url":"https://x.com/otzgary/status/1988114872710922545/photo/1","id_str":"1988114803672694784","indices":[118,141],"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5cz4WWbQAAc6dR.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E5FIcxWw92","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":440,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":772,"width":1194,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":669},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":772,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":677,"h":772},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":386,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":772}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"quoted_status_id_str":"1988096559029145718","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/JJZol2wHGH","expanded":"https://twitter.com/0xBeyondLee/status/1988096559029145718","display":"x.com/0xBeyondLee/st…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988114872710922545","view_count":3919,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1762838497000,"favorite_count":14,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1988114872710922545","full_text":"致各位股东:\n\n我将不再撰写伯克希尔的年度报告,也不会在年度会议上滔滔不绝。用英国人的话说,我将“保持沉默”。\n\n算是吧。\n\n格雷格·阿贝尔将于年底接任。他是一位出色的管理者,一个不知疲倦的工作者,以及一个的坦诚沟通者。祝他任期长久。\n\n我会通过每年的感恩节致辞继续与你们以及我的孩子们谈论伯克希尔的情况。伯克希尔的个人股东们是一群非常特别的人,他们总是慷慨地与那些不如他们幸运的人分享自己的收益。我很享受与你们保持联系的机会。今年请允许我先回忆一下往事。之后,我会谈谈我伯克希尔股份的分配计划。最后,我会分享一些业务和个人方面的看法。\n\n************\n\n随着感恩节的临近,我为自己活到 95 岁感到既感恩又惊讶。年轻时,这样的结果看起来希望渺茫。早些时候,我差点就死了。\n\n那是 1938 年,当时奥马哈的市民认为当地的医院要么是天主教的,要么是新教的,这种分类在当时看来是很自然的。\n\n我们的家庭医生哈雷·霍茨是个友善的天主教徒,他上门看病时总是背着一个黑色的医药包。霍茨医生叫我“小船长”,每次上门看病收费也不高。1938 年我肚子疼得厉害,霍茨医生来了,探查一番后告诉我,第二天早上就会好的。\n\n随后他回家吃了晚饭,还打了会儿桥牌。不过,霍茨医生始终忘不了我那些有点古怪的症状,当晚晚些时候便把我送到了圣凯瑟琳医院,给我做了紧急阑尾切除手术。接下来的三周里,我感觉自己就像置身于修道院,也开始喜欢上了我的新“讲台”。我喜欢说话——没错,那时也是——修女们对我很友好。\n\n最妙的是,三年级的马德森老师让班上的30个同学每人给我写一封信。我大概把男生们的信都扔了,而女生们的信我却反复读了很多遍;住院也有好处嘛。\n\n我康复期间最开心的事——其实头一周情况还很危险——是我那亲爱的艾迪姨妈送我的一份礼物。她给我带来了一套看起来非常专业的指纹采集工具,我马上给照顾我的修女们都采集了指纹。(我可能是圣凯瑟琳医院里她们见过的第一个新教徒孩子,她们也不知道该对我有什么期待。)\n\n我的想法——当然完全是异想天开——是总有一天会有个修女犯了法,而联邦调查局会发现他们居然没有给修女们采集指纹。联邦调查局及其局长 J. 埃德加·胡佛在 20 世纪 30 年代已为美国人所敬仰,我想象着胡佛先生亲自来到奥马哈来查看我那珍贵的指纹收藏。我还幻想我和 J. 埃德加能迅速找出并逮捕那个失足的修女。全国性的声誉似乎唾手可得。\n\n显然,我的幻想从未实现。但颇具讽刺意味的是,几年后我才发现,当时我本应给 J. 埃德加本人采集指纹,因为他后来因滥用职权而身败名裂。\n\n嗯,那是 20 世纪 30 年代的奥马哈,那时我和其他小伙伴都渴望拥有一辆雪橇、一辆自行车、一副棒球手套和一辆电动火车。让我们来看看那个时代其他几个孩子,他们就住在附近,对我影响很大,但我很久都不知道他们的存在。\n\n我先从查理·芒格说起,他是我 64 年的好友。20 世纪 30 年代,查理就住在离我 1958 年起就一直居住的房子仅一个街区的地方。\n\n早些时候,我差点就和查理成为朋友了。查理比我大6岁半,1940 年夏天他在祖父的杂货店打工,每天工作10个小时挣2美元。(节俭是巴菲特家族的传统。)第二年我也在店里干过类似的工作,但直到1959年我才见到查理,那时他35岁,我28岁。\n\n二战服役结束后,查理从哈佛法学院毕业,然后永久定居在加利福尼亚。然而,查理却一直将自己在奥马哈的早年岁月视为人生的重要阶段。六十多年来,查理对我影响巨大,他是一位极好的老师,也是我保护有加的“大哥”。我们之间虽有分歧,但从无争执。他从不说“我早就跟你说过”。\n\n1958 年,我买了我的第一套也是唯一一套房子。当然,它在奥马哈,离我成长的地方(大致说来)约两英里,离我岳父母家不到两个街区,离巴菲特杂货店约六个街区,开车到我工作了 64年的办公楼只需 6 到 7 分钟。\n\n让我们来谈谈另一位奥马哈人斯坦·利普西。1968 年,斯坦将《奥马哈太阳报》(周报)卖给了伯克希尔,十年后应我的请求搬到了布法罗。当时伯克希尔旗下一家子公司拥有的《布法罗晚报》正与该市唯一的周日报纸的出版商——其早报竞争对手展开生死较量,而我们正节节败退。\n\n斯坦最终打造出了我们新的《星期日》产品,此后数年,我们这项原本每年都在大量亏损的投资,每年(税前)的回报率都超过了100%。在20世纪80年代初,这笔3300万美元的投资对伯克希尔来说是一笔重要的资金。\n\n斯坦在我家附近大约五个街区的地方长大。斯坦的一位邻居是小沃尔特·斯科特。沃尔特,您应该还记得,他在 1999 年将中美能源公司带到了伯克希尔。他还是伯克希尔的董事,直到 2021年去世,也是我的挚友。几十年来,沃尔特一直是内布拉斯加州的慈善领袖,奥马哈和整个州都留下了他深深的印记。\n\n沃尔特上了本森高中,我也原本打算去那所学校上学——直到 1942 年,我父亲出人意料地在国会竞选中击败了连任四届的对手。生活总是充满惊喜。\n\n等等,还有更多。\n\n1959 年,唐·基奥和他的年轻家庭住在离我家街对面、距离芒格家旧居约 100 码远的一所房子里。当时唐是一名咖啡推销员,但后来他成为了可口可乐公司的总裁,并且是伯克希尔公司的忠实董事。\n\n我认识唐的时候,他一年挣 12000 美元,而他和妻子米基还要抚养五个孩子,这些孩子都得上天主教学校(学费不菲)。\n\n我们两家很快成了挚友。唐来自爱荷华州西北部的一个农场,毕业于奥马哈市的克雷顿大学。早年,他娶了奥马哈姑娘米基。加入可口可乐公司后,唐很快就在全球声名远扬。\n\n1985 年,唐担任可口可乐公司总裁期间,公司推出了命运多舛的新可口可乐。唐发表了一次著名的演讲,向公众道歉,并重新推出了“老”可口可乐。这一转变发生在唐解释说,寄给“至高无上的白痴”的信件会迅速送到他的办公桌上之后。他的“撤回”演讲堪称经典,可在YouTube 上观看。他愉快地承认,实际上可口可乐产品属于公众而非公司。随后销量大幅上升。\n\n您可以在 https://t.co/UngDEv31eq 上观看唐的一次精彩访谈。(汤姆·墨菲和凯·格雷厄姆也有几段精彩的内容。)和查理·芒格一样,唐始终是个地道的中西部男孩,热情、友善,骨子里透着十足的美国味儿。\n\n最后,出生于印度并在那里长大的阿吉特·贾恩(Ajit Jain)以及即将成为我们首席执行官的加拿大人格雷格·阿贝尔(Greg Abel),在 20 世纪末都曾在奥马哈生活了数年。事实上,在 20世纪 90 年代,格雷格就住在离我仅几个街区远的法纳姆街(Farnam Street),不过当时我们从未谋面。\n\n难道奥马哈的水里有什么神奇的成分吗?\n\n************\n\n我十几岁时在华盛顿特区生活过几年(当时我父亲在国会任职),1954 年我在曼哈顿找到了一份我以为会干一辈子的工作。在那里,本·格雷厄姆和杰里·纽曼对我很好,我也结交了许多终生的朋友。纽约有着独特的魅力——至今依然如此。然而,仅仅一年半之后,在 1956 年,我还是回到了奥马哈,从此再也没有离开过。\n\n后来,我的三个孩子以及几个孙辈都在奥马哈长大。我的孩子们一直就读于公立学校(从同一所高中毕业,这所高中培养了我父亲(1921 届)、我的第一任妻子苏西(1950 届),还有对内布拉斯加家具商场的发展起到关键作用的查理、斯坦·利普西、厄夫和罗恩·布卢姆金,以及1923 届的杰克·林格瓦尔特,他创立了国民赔偿保险公司,并于 1967 年将其出售给伯克希尔,成为我们庞大的财产险业务的基础)。\n\n************\n\n我们国家有很多伟大的公司、伟大的学校、伟大的医疗机构,每个地方都有其独特的优势,也都有才华出众的人。但我感到非常幸运,能有幸结交许多一生的朋友,能遇到我的两位妻子,在公立学校接受良好的教育,年幼时就能结识许多有趣且友善的奥马哈成年人,还能在内布拉斯加州国民警卫队结识各种各样的朋友。总之,内布拉斯加州一直是我真正的家。\n\n回首往事,我觉得伯克希尔和我之所以能取得更好的成绩,很大程度上是因为我们扎根于奥马哈。如果我出生在其他地方,结果可能就大不一样了。美国的中心地带是出生、养家和创业的绝佳之地。我出生时纯属运气好,抽到了一根长得出奇的签。\n\n************\n\n现在来说说我的高龄。我的基因并没有给我带来什么好处——家族长寿纪录(当然,追溯得越久远,家族记录就越模糊)一直是 92 岁,直到我打破了这个纪录。不过,我有睿智、友善且尽职尽责的奥马哈医生,从哈雷·霍茨医生开始,一直到现在。至少有三次,我的生命是被离家不远的医生们挽救的。(不过,我已经不再给护士们按指纹了。95 岁的人可以有很多怪癖……但也有个限度。)\n\n************\n\n活到老寿星这把年纪,得有极大的运气,每天都要躲过香蕉皮、自然灾害、醉酒或分心的司机、雷击等等,诸如此类的危险。\n\n但幸运女神反复无常,而且——没有别的词能形容——极其不公平。在很多情况下,我们的领导人和富人得到的幸运远远超过了他们应得的份额——而这些幸运儿往往不愿承认这一点。有些豪门子弟一出生就获得了终身的经济保障,而其他人则在幼年时期就面临着地狱般的困境,甚至更糟的是,身患残疾,失去了我视为理所当然的一切。在世界上很多人口稠密的地区,我可能会过着悲惨的生活,而我的姐妹们则会过上更糟糕的日子。\n\n我于 1930 年出生在美国,健康、聪明、白人、男性。哇!感谢幸运女神。我的姐妹们和我一样聪明,性格还比我好,但她们的人生前景却大不相同。幸运女神在我人生的大部分时间里都眷顾着我,但她可没空去照顾那些九十多岁的人。幸运也是有极限的。\n\n时光老人却恰恰相反,随着我年岁渐长,他愈发觉得我有趣了。他战无不胜;对他而言,每个人最终都算在他的“胜者”名单上。当平衡感、视力、听力和记忆力都持续走下坡路时,你就知道时光老人就在附近了。\n\n我步入老年的时间较晚——衰老的开始因人而异——但一旦出现,就无法否认。\n\n令我惊讶的是,我总体感觉良好。尽管行动迟缓,阅读也愈发吃力,但我每周仍会在办公室工作五天,与出色的人们共事。偶尔,我会冒出一些有用的想法,或者有人向我们提出一些原本可能不会有的提议。由于伯克希尔的规模以及市场状况,好的想法不多——但并非没有。\n\n************\n\n然而,我出乎意料的长寿却给我的家庭以及我慈善目标的实现带来了重大且不可避免的影响。\n\n让我们来探究一下它们。\n\n接下来是什么\n\n我的孩子们都已超过正常退休年龄,分别为 72 岁、70 岁和 67 岁。指望他们三人——在很多方面都已达到巅峰——能像我一样延缓衰老,这显然是不切实际的。为了提高他们在我指定的受托人取代他们之前处理完我几乎全部遗产的可能性,我需要加快向他们三个基金会的生前赠与。我的孩子们现在在经验和智慧方面都处于巅峰,但还未步入老年。这段“蜜月期”不会永远持续下去。\n\n幸运的是,调整方向很容易执行。不过,还有一个额外的因素需要考虑:我希望在伯克希尔的股东们像我和查理那样对格雷格充满信心之前,保留相当数量的“A”类股。这种程度的信任应该不会太久。我的孩子们已经百分之百支持格雷格,伯克希尔的董事们也是如此。\n\n如今这三个孩子都已成熟,头脑聪明,精力充沛,且富有本能,足以支配一大笔财富。在我去世很久之后,他们仍能活跃于世,这将是他们的优势所在。如有必要,他们可以采取既具前瞻性又具应对性的策略来应对联邦税收政策或其他影响慈善事业的发展。他们很可能需要适应周围世界发生的巨大变化。死后遥控指挥向来成效不佳,而我从未有过这种冲动。\n\n幸运的是,三个孩子都从母亲那里遗传了显性基因。随着岁月的流逝,我也逐渐成为他们思考和行为的更好榜样。然而,我永远无法与他们的母亲相提并论。\n\n我的孩子们有三位候补监护人,以防出现任何意外死亡或残疾的情况。这三位候补监护人不分先后顺序,也不与任何特定的孩子绑定。他们都是杰出的人,对世事洞明。他们没有任何相互冲突的动机。\n\n我已向孩子们保证,他们无需创造奇迹,也无需惧怕失败或失望。这些都是不可避免的,我也经历过。他们只需在政府活动和/或私人慈善事业通常所取得的成就基础上有所进步即可,同时要认识到这些财富再分配的方式也存在不足之处。\n\n早些时候,我曾构想过种种宏伟的慈善计划。尽管我性格执拗,但这些计划最终都未能实现。在我漫长的人生中,我也目睹了政客们拙劣的财富转移、家族式的抉择,当然还有那些不称职或古怪的慈善家。\n\n如果我的孩子们能干得不错,他们可以肯定,我和他们的母亲都会感到高兴。他们的直觉很好,而且他们每个人都有多年的实践经历,起初只是很小的数目,后来逐渐增加到每年超过5亿美元。\n\n这三个人都喜欢长时间工作来帮助他人,只是方式各不相同。\n\n************\n\n我加快向子女基金会捐赠的步伐,这绝不是因为我对伯克希尔的前景有了任何改变的看法。格雷格·阿贝尔的表现远超我当初认为他应成为伯克希尔下一任首席执行官时对他的期望。他对我们的许多业务和人员的了解远胜于我,而且对于很多首席执行官都不曾考虑的问题,他也能很快掌握。无论您说的是一位首席执行官、一位管理顾问、一位学者,还是一位政府官员,我都想不出有谁能比格雷格更适合来管理您和我的储蓄。\n\n例如,格雷格对我们的财产和意外险业务的潜在收益和风险的了解,远胜于许多长期从事这一业务的高管。我希望他的健康状况能保持良好几十年。如果运气好,伯克希尔在接下来的一个世纪里只需要五六个首席执行官。尤其要避免那些一心想着 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413 人\n\n我就能达到 10000 followers\n\n朋友\n\n我该去哪里寻找你? https://t.co/TTyhhTpN0G","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,37],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988192647794803098","view_count":7665,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1762857040000,"favorite_count":25,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":27,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1988192647794803098","full_text":"20岁多岁的男人\n\n请给30岁以上的男人一些建议 \n\n主题可以是任何方面","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,42],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1328686769508732929","name":"解构师 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2006\n\n有一天,我从徐家汇赶去机场,在美罗大厦前搜索出租车。一辆「大众」发现了我,非常专业地、径直地停在我的面前。这一停,便有了后面这个让我深感震撼的故事,像上了一堂生动的MBA案例课\n\n「去哪里……好的,机场。我在徐家汇就喜欢做美罗大厦的生意。这里我只做两个地方:美罗大厦,均瑶大厦。接到你之前,我在美罗大厦门口兜了两圈,终于被我看到你了!从写字楼里出来的,肯定去的不近……」\n\n「哦?你很有方法嘛!」我附和了一下。\n\n「做出租车司机,也要用科学的方法。」他说。\n\n我一愣,顿时很有些兴趣:「什么科学的方法?」\n\n「要懂得统计。我做过精确的计算,我每天要开17个小时的车,每小时成本34.4元……」\n\n「怎么算出来的?」我追问。\n\n「你算啊,我每天要交380元给公司,一天17小时,平均每小时固定成本约22元;油费210元左右,平均每小时12.4元油费。加起来是不是就是 34.4元?」我有些惊讶。我打了10年的车,第一次听到有出租车司机这么计算成本。以前的司机都和我说,每公里成本0.3元,另外每天交多少钱之类的。\n\n「成本是不能按公里算的,只能按时间算。我做过数据分析,每次载客之间的空驶时间平均为7分钟。如果上来一个起步价,10元,大概要开10分钟。也就 是每一个10元的客人要花17分钟的成本,也就是9.7元。不赚钱啊!如果说做浦东、杭州、青浦的客人是吃饭,做10元的客人连吃菜都算不上,只能算是撒 了些味精。」\n\n这位师傅听上去真不像出租车司机,倒像是一位成本核算师。「那你怎么办呢?」我更感兴趣了,继续问。\n\n「千万不能被客户拉了满街跑。要通过选择停车的地点、时间和客户,主动地决定你要去的地方。」我非常惊讶,这听上去很有意思。「有人说做出租车司机是靠运气吃饭的职业。我以为不是。你要站在客户的位置上,从客户的角度去思考。」这句话听上去非常专业,有点像很多商业管理培训老师说的「put yourself into others’ shoes(设身处地为别人着想)」。\n\n「给你举个例子,医院门口,一个拿着药的,一个拿着脸盆的,你带哪一个。」我想了想,说不知道。\n\n「你要带那个拿脸盆的。一般人小病小痛的到医院看一看,拿点药,不一定会去很远的医院。拿着脸盆打车的,那是出院的。住院哪有不死人的?今天二楼的谁 死了,明天三楼又死了一个。从医院出来的人通常会有重获新生的感觉。那天这个人说:走,去青浦。眼睛都不眨一下。你说他会打车到人民广场,再去坐青浦线吗?绝对不会!」\n\n我不由得开始佩服。\n\n「再给你举个例子。那天中午人民广场,好几个人在前面招手。一个年轻女子,拿着小包,刚买完东西。还有一对青年男女,一看就是逛街的。接下去是个里面穿绒衬衫、外面套羽绒服的男子,提着笔记本电脑。我看一个人只要3秒钟。我毫不犹豫地停在这个男子面前。这个男的上车后忍不住问,为什么你毫不犹豫地开到我面前?前面还有别人。我回答说,还有十几分钟就1点了。那个女孩子是中午溜出来买东西的,估计公司很近;那对男女是游客,没拿什么东西,不会去很远;你是出去办事的,拿着笔记本电脑,一看就是公务,这个时候出去,估计应该不会近。那个男的就说,你说对了,去宝山。」\n\n「那些在超市门口、地铁口打车,穿着睡衣的人可能去很远的地方吗?可能去机场吗?」\n\n有道理!我越听越有意思。\n\n「很多司机都抱怨,生意不好做啊,油价又涨了啊,都从别人身上找原因。我说,从别人身上找原因,你永远不能提高。从自己身上找找看,问题出在哪里。」这话听起来好熟,好像是「如果你不能改变世界,就改变你自己」。\n\n「有一次,在南丹路一个人拦车,去田林。后来又有一次,一个人在南丹路拦车,还是去田林。我就问,怎么你们从南丹路出来的人,很多都是去田林呢?人家说,在南丹路有一个公共汽车总站,我们都是坐公共汽车从浦东到这里,然后搭车去田林的。我恍然大悟。你看我们开过的这条路,没有写字楼,没有酒店,什么都没有,只有公共汽车站,在这里拦车的多半都是刚下公共汽车的,再选择一条最短路径打车,通常不会高于15元。」\n\n「所以,态度决定一切!」我听十几个总裁讲过这句话,第一次听出租车司机这么说。\n\n「要用科学的方法做生意。天天等在地铁口排队,怎么能赚到钱?要用知识武装自己。学习知识可以把一个人变成聪明的人,一个聪明的人学习知识可以变成很聪明的人。一个很聪明的人学习知识,可以变成天才。」\n\n「有一次一个人打车去火车站,问怎么走。他说这么这么走。我说慢,上高架,再这么这么走。他说,那就绕远了。我说,没关系,你经常走你有经验,你那么走50块,你按我的走法,等里程表50块了,我就翻表,多的算我的。最后,按我的路走,多走了4公里,快了25分钟,我只收了50块。乘客很高兴。这4公里对我来说就是1块多钱的油钱。我相当于用1块多钱买了25分钟。我一小时的成本34.4块,我多合算啊!」\n\n「在大众公司,一般一个司机三四千,好的大概5千左右。顶级的司机大概每月能有7千。全大众两万个司机,大概只有两三个每月能拿到8千以上。我就是这中间的一个。而且很稳定,基本不会有大的波动。」\n\n到此为止,我越来越佩服这个出租车司机。\n\n「我常常说,我是一个快乐的车夫。有人说,你赚的钱多,当然快乐。我对他们说,你们正好错了。是因为我有快乐、积极的心态,所以赚的钱多。」\n\n说得多好啊!\n\n「要懂得体味工作带给你的美。堵在人民广场的时候,很多司机抱怨,又堵车了!真是倒霉。千万不要这样,用心体会一下这个城市的美,外面有很多漂亮的女孩 子经过,非常现代的高楼大厦,虽然买不起,但是可以用欣赏的眼光去享受。开车去机场,看着两边的绿色,冬天是白色的,多美啊。再看看里程表,100多了,就更美了!每一样工作都有美丽的地方,我们要懂得体会。」\n\n「我10年前是强生公司的总教练,8年前在公司做过3个不同部门的部门经理。后来我不干了,一个月就三五千块,没意思,就主动来做司机。我愿意做一个快乐的车夫。哈哈哈哈。」\n\n到了机场,我给他留了一张名片,说:「你有没有兴趣这个星期五,到我办公室,给微软的员工讲一讲你怎么开出租车的?你就当打着表,60公里1小时,你讲多久,我就付你多少钱。」\n\n我迫不及待地在飞机上记录下这堂生动的MBA课","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,17],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"561829394","name":"超级siya人","screen_name":"siyahashkey","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"siyahashkey","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987705723913228468","view_count":93,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762740949000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1987700438242844889","full_text":"@siyahashkey 沙发学习","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"561829394","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987700438242844889","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[8,21],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1372876871990272000","name":"丰密","screen_name":"KuiGas","indices":[0,7]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"KuiGas","lang":"ja","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987800996035408168","view_count":68,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762763663000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1987800109766336870","full_text":"@KuiGas gas的使用决定人生的方向","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1372876871990272000","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987800109766336870","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,23],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1899739859084103680","name":"林晚晚的猫","screen_name":"linwanwan823","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"linwanwan823","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987854697999606109","view_count":755,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762776467000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1987774526672011639","full_text":"@linwanwan823 这个角度好啊,敏感","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1899739859084103680","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987774526672011639","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-12","value":165,"startTime":1762819200000,"endTime":1762905600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,117],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E5FIcxWw92","expanded_url":"https://x.com/otzgary/status/1988114872710922545/photo/1","id_str":"1988114803672694784","indices":[118,141],"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5cz4WWbQAAc6dR.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E5FIcxWw92","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":440,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":772,"width":1194,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":669},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":772,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":677,"h":772},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":386,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":772}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[{"display_url":"CharlieRose.com","expanded_url":"http://CharlieRose.com","url":"https://t.co/UngDEv31eq","indices":[2480,2503]}],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E5FIcxWw92","expanded_url":"https://x.com/otzgary/status/1988114872710922545/photo/1","id_str":"1988114803672694784","indices":[118,141],"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5cz4WWbQAAc6dR.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E5FIcxWw92","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":440,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":772,"width":1194,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":669},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":772,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":677,"h":772},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":386,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":772}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"quoted_status_id_str":"1988096559029145718","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/JJZol2wHGH","expanded":"https://twitter.com/0xBeyondLee/status/1988096559029145718","display":"x.com/0xBeyondLee/st…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988114872710922545","view_count":3919,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1762838497000,"favorite_count":14,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1988114872710922545","full_text":"致各位股东:\n\n我将不再撰写伯克希尔的年度报告,也不会在年度会议上滔滔不绝。用英国人的话说,我将“保持沉默”。\n\n算是吧。\n\n格雷格·阿贝尔将于年底接任。他是一位出色的管理者,一个不知疲倦的工作者,以及一个的坦诚沟通者。祝他任期长久。\n\n我会通过每年的感恩节致辞继续与你们以及我的孩子们谈论伯克希尔的情况。伯克希尔的个人股东们是一群非常特别的人,他们总是慷慨地与那些不如他们幸运的人分享自己的收益。我很享受与你们保持联系的机会。今年请允许我先回忆一下往事。之后,我会谈谈我伯克希尔股份的分配计划。最后,我会分享一些业务和个人方面的看法。\n\n************\n\n随着感恩节的临近,我为自己活到 95 岁感到既感恩又惊讶。年轻时,这样的结果看起来希望渺茫。早些时候,我差点就死了。\n\n那是 1938 年,当时奥马哈的市民认为当地的医院要么是天主教的,要么是新教的,这种分类在当时看来是很自然的。\n\n我们的家庭医生哈雷·霍茨是个友善的天主教徒,他上门看病时总是背着一个黑色的医药包。霍茨医生叫我“小船长”,每次上门看病收费也不高。1938 年我肚子疼得厉害,霍茨医生来了,探查一番后告诉我,第二天早上就会好的。\n\n随后他回家吃了晚饭,还打了会儿桥牌。不过,霍茨医生始终忘不了我那些有点古怪的症状,当晚晚些时候便把我送到了圣凯瑟琳医院,给我做了紧急阑尾切除手术。接下来的三周里,我感觉自己就像置身于修道院,也开始喜欢上了我的新“讲台”。我喜欢说话——没错,那时也是——修女们对我很友好。\n\n最妙的是,三年级的马德森老师让班上的30个同学每人给我写一封信。我大概把男生们的信都扔了,而女生们的信我却反复读了很多遍;住院也有好处嘛。\n\n我康复期间最开心的事——其实头一周情况还很危险——是我那亲爱的艾迪姨妈送我的一份礼物。她给我带来了一套看起来非常专业的指纹采集工具,我马上给照顾我的修女们都采集了指纹。(我可能是圣凯瑟琳医院里她们见过的第一个新教徒孩子,她们也不知道该对我有什么期待。)\n\n我的想法——当然完全是异想天开——是总有一天会有个修女犯了法,而联邦调查局会发现他们居然没有给修女们采集指纹。联邦调查局及其局长 J. 埃德加·胡佛在 20 世纪 30 年代已为美国人所敬仰,我想象着胡佛先生亲自来到奥马哈来查看我那珍贵的指纹收藏。我还幻想我和 J. 埃德加能迅速找出并逮捕那个失足的修女。全国性的声誉似乎唾手可得。\n\n显然,我的幻想从未实现。但颇具讽刺意味的是,几年后我才发现,当时我本应给 J. 埃德加本人采集指纹,因为他后来因滥用职权而身败名裂。\n\n嗯,那是 20 世纪 30 年代的奥马哈,那时我和其他小伙伴都渴望拥有一辆雪橇、一辆自行车、一副棒球手套和一辆电动火车。让我们来看看那个时代其他几个孩子,他们就住在附近,对我影响很大,但我很久都不知道他们的存在。\n\n我先从查理·芒格说起,他是我 64 年的好友。20 世纪 30 年代,查理就住在离我 1958 年起就一直居住的房子仅一个街区的地方。\n\n早些时候,我差点就和查理成为朋友了。查理比我大6岁半,1940 年夏天他在祖父的杂货店打工,每天工作10个小时挣2美元。(节俭是巴菲特家族的传统。)第二年我也在店里干过类似的工作,但直到1959年我才见到查理,那时他35岁,我28岁。\n\n二战服役结束后,查理从哈佛法学院毕业,然后永久定居在加利福尼亚。然而,查理却一直将自己在奥马哈的早年岁月视为人生的重要阶段。六十多年来,查理对我影响巨大,他是一位极好的老师,也是我保护有加的“大哥”。我们之间虽有分歧,但从无争执。他从不说“我早就跟你说过”。\n\n1958 年,我买了我的第一套也是唯一一套房子。当然,它在奥马哈,离我成长的地方(大致说来)约两英里,离我岳父母家不到两个街区,离巴菲特杂货店约六个街区,开车到我工作了 64年的办公楼只需 6 到 7 分钟。\n\n让我们来谈谈另一位奥马哈人斯坦·利普西。1968 年,斯坦将《奥马哈太阳报》(周报)卖给了伯克希尔,十年后应我的请求搬到了布法罗。当时伯克希尔旗下一家子公司拥有的《布法罗晚报》正与该市唯一的周日报纸的出版商——其早报竞争对手展开生死较量,而我们正节节败退。\n\n斯坦最终打造出了我们新的《星期日》产品,此后数年,我们这项原本每年都在大量亏损的投资,每年(税前)的回报率都超过了100%。在20世纪80年代初,这笔3300万美元的投资对伯克希尔来说是一笔重要的资金。\n\n斯坦在我家附近大约五个街区的地方长大。斯坦的一位邻居是小沃尔特·斯科特。沃尔特,您应该还记得,他在 1999 年将中美能源公司带到了伯克希尔。他还是伯克希尔的董事,直到 2021年去世,也是我的挚友。几十年来,沃尔特一直是内布拉斯加州的慈善领袖,奥马哈和整个州都留下了他深深的印记。\n\n沃尔特上了本森高中,我也原本打算去那所学校上学——直到 1942 年,我父亲出人意料地在国会竞选中击败了连任四届的对手。生活总是充满惊喜。\n\n等等,还有更多。\n\n1959 年,唐·基奥和他的年轻家庭住在离我家街对面、距离芒格家旧居约 100 码远的一所房子里。当时唐是一名咖啡推销员,但后来他成为了可口可乐公司的总裁,并且是伯克希尔公司的忠实董事。\n\n我认识唐的时候,他一年挣 12000 美元,而他和妻子米基还要抚养五个孩子,这些孩子都得上天主教学校(学费不菲)。\n\n我们两家很快成了挚友。唐来自爱荷华州西北部的一个农场,毕业于奥马哈市的克雷顿大学。早年,他娶了奥马哈姑娘米基。加入可口可乐公司后,唐很快就在全球声名远扬。\n\n1985 年,唐担任可口可乐公司总裁期间,公司推出了命运多舛的新可口可乐。唐发表了一次著名的演讲,向公众道歉,并重新推出了“老”可口可乐。这一转变发生在唐解释说,寄给“至高无上的白痴”的信件会迅速送到他的办公桌上之后。他的“撤回”演讲堪称经典,可在YouTube 上观看。他愉快地承认,实际上可口可乐产品属于公众而非公司。随后销量大幅上升。\n\n您可以在 https://t.co/UngDEv31eq 上观看唐的一次精彩访谈。(汤姆·墨菲和凯·格雷厄姆也有几段精彩的内容。)和查理·芒格一样,唐始终是个地道的中西部男孩,热情、友善,骨子里透着十足的美国味儿。\n\n最后,出生于印度并在那里长大的阿吉特·贾恩(Ajit Jain)以及即将成为我们首席执行官的加拿大人格雷格·阿贝尔(Greg Abel),在 20 世纪末都曾在奥马哈生活了数年。事实上,在 20世纪 90 年代,格雷格就住在离我仅几个街区远的法纳姆街(Farnam Street),不过当时我们从未谋面。\n\n难道奥马哈的水里有什么神奇的成分吗?\n\n************\n\n我十几岁时在华盛顿特区生活过几年(当时我父亲在国会任职),1954 年我在曼哈顿找到了一份我以为会干一辈子的工作。在那里,本·格雷厄姆和杰里·纽曼对我很好,我也结交了许多终生的朋友。纽约有着独特的魅力——至今依然如此。然而,仅仅一年半之后,在 1956 年,我还是回到了奥马哈,从此再也没有离开过。\n\n后来,我的三个孩子以及几个孙辈都在奥马哈长大。我的孩子们一直就读于公立学校(从同一所高中毕业,这所高中培养了我父亲(1921 届)、我的第一任妻子苏西(1950 届),还有对内布拉斯加家具商场的发展起到关键作用的查理、斯坦·利普西、厄夫和罗恩·布卢姆金,以及1923 届的杰克·林格瓦尔特,他创立了国民赔偿保险公司,并于 1967 年将其出售给伯克希尔,成为我们庞大的财产险业务的基础)。\n\n************\n\n我们国家有很多伟大的公司、伟大的学校、伟大的医疗机构,每个地方都有其独特的优势,也都有才华出众的人。但我感到非常幸运,能有幸结交许多一生的朋友,能遇到我的两位妻子,在公立学校接受良好的教育,年幼时就能结识许多有趣且友善的奥马哈成年人,还能在内布拉斯加州国民警卫队结识各种各样的朋友。总之,内布拉斯加州一直是我真正的家。\n\n回首往事,我觉得伯克希尔和我之所以能取得更好的成绩,很大程度上是因为我们扎根于奥马哈。如果我出生在其他地方,结果可能就大不一样了。美国的中心地带是出生、养家和创业的绝佳之地。我出生时纯属运气好,抽到了一根长得出奇的签。\n\n************\n\n现在来说说我的高龄。我的基因并没有给我带来什么好处——家族长寿纪录(当然,追溯得越久远,家族记录就越模糊)一直是 92 岁,直到我打破了这个纪录。不过,我有睿智、友善且尽职尽责的奥马哈医生,从哈雷·霍茨医生开始,一直到现在。至少有三次,我的生命是被离家不远的医生们挽救的。(不过,我已经不再给护士们按指纹了。95 岁的人可以有很多怪癖……但也有个限度。)\n\n************\n\n活到老寿星这把年纪,得有极大的运气,每天都要躲过香蕉皮、自然灾害、醉酒或分心的司机、雷击等等,诸如此类的危险。\n\n但幸运女神反复无常,而且——没有别的词能形容——极其不公平。在很多情况下,我们的领导人和富人得到的幸运远远超过了他们应得的份额——而这些幸运儿往往不愿承认这一点。有些豪门子弟一出生就获得了终身的经济保障,而其他人则在幼年时期就面临着地狱般的困境,甚至更糟的是,身患残疾,失去了我视为理所当然的一切。在世界上很多人口稠密的地区,我可能会过着悲惨的生活,而我的姐妹们则会过上更糟糕的日子。\n\n我于 1930 年出生在美国,健康、聪明、白人、男性。哇!感谢幸运女神。我的姐妹们和我一样聪明,性格还比我好,但她们的人生前景却大不相同。幸运女神在我人生的大部分时间里都眷顾着我,但她可没空去照顾那些九十多岁的人。幸运也是有极限的。\n\n时光老人却恰恰相反,随着我年岁渐长,他愈发觉得我有趣了。他战无不胜;对他而言,每个人最终都算在他的“胜者”名单上。当平衡感、视力、听力和记忆力都持续走下坡路时,你就知道时光老人就在附近了。\n\n我步入老年的时间较晚——衰老的开始因人而异——但一旦出现,就无法否认。\n\n令我惊讶的是,我总体感觉良好。尽管行动迟缓,阅读也愈发吃力,但我每周仍会在办公室工作五天,与出色的人们共事。偶尔,我会冒出一些有用的想法,或者有人向我们提出一些原本可能不会有的提议。由于伯克希尔的规模以及市场状况,好的想法不多——但并非没有。\n\n************\n\n然而,我出乎意料的长寿却给我的家庭以及我慈善目标的实现带来了重大且不可避免的影响。\n\n让我们来探究一下它们。\n\n接下来是什么\n\n我的孩子们都已超过正常退休年龄,分别为 72 岁、70 岁和 67 岁。指望他们三人——在很多方面都已达到巅峰——能像我一样延缓衰老,这显然是不切实际的。为了提高他们在我指定的受托人取代他们之前处理完我几乎全部遗产的可能性,我需要加快向他们三个基金会的生前赠与。我的孩子们现在在经验和智慧方面都处于巅峰,但还未步入老年。这段“蜜月期”不会永远持续下去。\n\n幸运的是,调整方向很容易执行。不过,还有一个额外的因素需要考虑:我希望在伯克希尔的股东们像我和查理那样对格雷格充满信心之前,保留相当数量的“A”类股。这种程度的信任应该不会太久。我的孩子们已经百分之百支持格雷格,伯克希尔的董事们也是如此。\n\n如今这三个孩子都已成熟,头脑聪明,精力充沛,且富有本能,足以支配一大笔财富。在我去世很久之后,他们仍能活跃于世,这将是他们的优势所在。如有必要,他们可以采取既具前瞻性又具应对性的策略来应对联邦税收政策或其他影响慈善事业的发展。他们很可能需要适应周围世界发生的巨大变化。死后遥控指挥向来成效不佳,而我从未有过这种冲动。\n\n幸运的是,三个孩子都从母亲那里遗传了显性基因。随着岁月的流逝,我也逐渐成为他们思考和行为的更好榜样。然而,我永远无法与他们的母亲相提并论。\n\n我的孩子们有三位候补监护人,以防出现任何意外死亡或残疾的情况。这三位候补监护人不分先后顺序,也不与任何特定的孩子绑定。他们都是杰出的人,对世事洞明。他们没有任何相互冲突的动机。\n\n我已向孩子们保证,他们无需创造奇迹,也无需惧怕失败或失望。这些都是不可避免的,我也经历过。他们只需在政府活动和/或私人慈善事业通常所取得的成就基础上有所进步即可,同时要认识到这些财富再分配的方式也存在不足之处。\n\n早些时候,我曾构想过种种宏伟的慈善计划。尽管我性格执拗,但这些计划最终都未能实现。在我漫长的人生中,我也目睹了政客们拙劣的财富转移、家族式的抉择,当然还有那些不称职或古怪的慈善家。\n\n如果我的孩子们能干得不错,他们可以肯定,我和他们的母亲都会感到高兴。他们的直觉很好,而且他们每个人都有多年的实践经历,起初只是很小的数目,后来逐渐增加到每年超过5亿美元。\n\n这三个人都喜欢长时间工作来帮助他人,只是方式各不相同。\n\n************\n\n我加快向子女基金会捐赠的步伐,这绝不是因为我对伯克希尔的前景有了任何改变的看法。格雷格·阿贝尔的表现远超我当初认为他应成为伯克希尔下一任首席执行官时对他的期望。他对我们的许多业务和人员的了解远胜于我,而且对于很多首席执行官都不曾考虑的问题,他也能很快掌握。无论您说的是一位首席执行官、一位管理顾问、一位学者,还是一位政府官员,我都想不出有谁能比格雷格更适合来管理您和我的储蓄。\n\n例如,格雷格对我们的财产和意外险业务的潜在收益和风险的了解,远胜于许多长期从事这一业务的高管。我希望他的健康状况能保持良好几十年。如果运气好,伯克希尔在接下来的一个世纪里只需要五六个首席执行官。尤其要避免那些一心想着 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413 人\n\n我就能达到 10000 followers\n\n朋友\n\n我该去哪里寻找你? https://t.co/TTyhhTpN0G","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,37],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988192647794803098","view_count":7665,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1762857040000,"favorite_count":25,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":27,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1988192647794803098","full_text":"20岁多岁的男人\n\n请给30岁以上的男人一些建议 \n\n主题可以是任何方面","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,42],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1328686769508732929","name":"解构师 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2006\n\n有一天,我从徐家汇赶去机场,在美罗大厦前搜索出租车。一辆「大众」发现了我,非常专业地、径直地停在我的面前。这一停,便有了后面这个让我深感震撼的故事,像上了一堂生动的MBA案例课\n\n「去哪里……好的,机场。我在徐家汇就喜欢做美罗大厦的生意。这里我只做两个地方:美罗大厦,均瑶大厦。接到你之前,我在美罗大厦门口兜了两圈,终于被我看到你了!从写字楼里出来的,肯定去的不近……」\n\n「哦?你很有方法嘛!」我附和了一下。\n\n「做出租车司机,也要用科学的方法。」他说。\n\n我一愣,顿时很有些兴趣:「什么科学的方法?」\n\n「要懂得统计。我做过精确的计算,我每天要开17个小时的车,每小时成本34.4元……」\n\n「怎么算出来的?」我追问。\n\n「你算啊,我每天要交380元给公司,一天17小时,平均每小时固定成本约22元;油费210元左右,平均每小时12.4元油费。加起来是不是就是 34.4元?」我有些惊讶。我打了10年的车,第一次听到有出租车司机这么计算成本。以前的司机都和我说,每公里成本0.3元,另外每天交多少钱之类的。\n\n「成本是不能按公里算的,只能按时间算。我做过数据分析,每次载客之间的空驶时间平均为7分钟。如果上来一个起步价,10元,大概要开10分钟。也就 是每一个10元的客人要花17分钟的成本,也就是9.7元。不赚钱啊!如果说做浦东、杭州、青浦的客人是吃饭,做10元的客人连吃菜都算不上,只能算是撒 了些味精。」\n\n这位师傅听上去真不像出租车司机,倒像是一位成本核算师。「那你怎么办呢?」我更感兴趣了,继续问。\n\n「千万不能被客户拉了满街跑。要通过选择停车的地点、时间和客户,主动地决定你要去的地方。」我非常惊讶,这听上去很有意思。「有人说做出租车司机是靠运气吃饭的职业。我以为不是。你要站在客户的位置上,从客户的角度去思考。」这句话听上去非常专业,有点像很多商业管理培训老师说的「put yourself into others’ shoes(设身处地为别人着想)」。\n\n「给你举个例子,医院门口,一个拿着药的,一个拿着脸盆的,你带哪一个。」我想了想,说不知道。\n\n「你要带那个拿脸盆的。一般人小病小痛的到医院看一看,拿点药,不一定会去很远的医院。拿着脸盆打车的,那是出院的。住院哪有不死人的?今天二楼的谁 死了,明天三楼又死了一个。从医院出来的人通常会有重获新生的感觉。那天这个人说:走,去青浦。眼睛都不眨一下。你说他会打车到人民广场,再去坐青浦线吗?绝对不会!」\n\n我不由得开始佩服。\n\n「再给你举个例子。那天中午人民广场,好几个人在前面招手。一个年轻女子,拿着小包,刚买完东西。还有一对青年男女,一看就是逛街的。接下去是个里面穿绒衬衫、外面套羽绒服的男子,提着笔记本电脑。我看一个人只要3秒钟。我毫不犹豫地停在这个男子面前。这个男的上车后忍不住问,为什么你毫不犹豫地开到我面前?前面还有别人。我回答说,还有十几分钟就1点了。那个女孩子是中午溜出来买东西的,估计公司很近;那对男女是游客,没拿什么东西,不会去很远;你是出去办事的,拿着笔记本电脑,一看就是公务,这个时候出去,估计应该不会近。那个男的就说,你说对了,去宝山。」\n\n「那些在超市门口、地铁口打车,穿着睡衣的人可能去很远的地方吗?可能去机场吗?」\n\n有道理!我越听越有意思。\n\n「很多司机都抱怨,生意不好做啊,油价又涨了啊,都从别人身上找原因。我说,从别人身上找原因,你永远不能提高。从自己身上找找看,问题出在哪里。」这话听起来好熟,好像是「如果你不能改变世界,就改变你自己」。\n\n「有一次,在南丹路一个人拦车,去田林。后来又有一次,一个人在南丹路拦车,还是去田林。我就问,怎么你们从南丹路出来的人,很多都是去田林呢?人家说,在南丹路有一个公共汽车总站,我们都是坐公共汽车从浦东到这里,然后搭车去田林的。我恍然大悟。你看我们开过的这条路,没有写字楼,没有酒店,什么都没有,只有公共汽车站,在这里拦车的多半都是刚下公共汽车的,再选择一条最短路径打车,通常不会高于15元。」\n\n「所以,态度决定一切!」我听十几个总裁讲过这句话,第一次听出租车司机这么说。\n\n「要用科学的方法做生意。天天等在地铁口排队,怎么能赚到钱?要用知识武装自己。学习知识可以把一个人变成聪明的人,一个聪明的人学习知识可以变成很聪明的人。一个很聪明的人学习知识,可以变成天才。」\n\n「有一次一个人打车去火车站,问怎么走。他说这么这么走。我说慢,上高架,再这么这么走。他说,那就绕远了。我说,没关系,你经常走你有经验,你那么走50块,你按我的走法,等里程表50块了,我就翻表,多的算我的。最后,按我的路走,多走了4公里,快了25分钟,我只收了50块。乘客很高兴。这4公里对我来说就是1块多钱的油钱。我相当于用1块多钱买了25分钟。我一小时的成本34.4块,我多合算啊!」\n\n「在大众公司,一般一个司机三四千,好的大概5千左右。顶级的司机大概每月能有7千。全大众两万个司机,大概只有两三个每月能拿到8千以上。我就是这中间的一个。而且很稳定,基本不会有大的波动。」\n\n到此为止,我越来越佩服这个出租车司机。\n\n「我常常说,我是一个快乐的车夫。有人说,你赚的钱多,当然快乐。我对他们说,你们正好错了。是因为我有快乐、积极的心态,所以赚的钱多。」\n\n说得多好啊!\n\n「要懂得体味工作带给你的美。堵在人民广场的时候,很多司机抱怨,又堵车了!真是倒霉。千万不要这样,用心体会一下这个城市的美,外面有很多漂亮的女孩 子经过,非常现代的高楼大厦,虽然买不起,但是可以用欣赏的眼光去享受。开车去机场,看着两边的绿色,冬天是白色的,多美啊。再看看里程表,100多了,就更美了!每一样工作都有美丽的地方,我们要懂得体会。」\n\n「我10年前是强生公司的总教练,8年前在公司做过3个不同部门的部门经理。后来我不干了,一个月就三五千块,没意思,就主动来做司机。我愿意做一个快乐的车夫。哈哈哈哈。」\n\n到了机场,我给他留了一张名片,说:「你有没有兴趣这个星期五,到我办公室,给微软的员工讲一讲你怎么开出租车的?你就当打着表,60公里1小时,你讲多久,我就付你多少钱。」\n\n我迫不及待地在飞机上记录下这堂生动的MBA课","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,17],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"561829394","name":"超级siya人","screen_name":"siyahashkey","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"siyahashkey","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987705723913228468","view_count":93,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762740949000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1987700438242844889","full_text":"@siyahashkey 沙发学习","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"561829394","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987700438242844889","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[8,21],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1372876871990272000","name":"丰密","screen_name":"KuiGas","indices":[0,7]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"KuiGas","lang":"ja","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987800996035408168","view_count":68,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762763663000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1987800109766336870","full_text":"@KuiGas gas的使用决定人生的方向","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1372876871990272000","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987800109766336870","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,23],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1899739859084103680","name":"林晚晚的猫","screen_name":"linwanwan823","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"linwanwan823","lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987854697999606109","view_count":755,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762776467000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1987774526672011639","full_text":"@linwanwan823 这个角度好啊,敏感","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1899739859084103680","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987774526672011639","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-12","value":26614,"startTime":1762819200000,"endTime":1762905600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,117],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E5FIcxWw92","expanded_url":"https://x.com/otzgary/status/1988114872710922545/photo/1","id_str":"1988114803672694784","indices":[118,141],"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5cz4WWbQAAc6dR.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E5FIcxWw92","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":440,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":772,"width":1194,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":669},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":772,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":677,"h":772},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":386,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":772}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[{"display_url":"CharlieRose.com","expanded_url":"http://CharlieRose.com","url":"https://t.co/UngDEv31eq","indices":[2480,2503]}],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E5FIcxWw92","expanded_url":"https://x.com/otzgary/status/1988114872710922545/photo/1","id_str":"1988114803672694784","indices":[118,141],"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5cz4WWbQAAc6dR.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E5FIcxWw92","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":772,"w":1194,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":440,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":772,"width":1194,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":669},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":772,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":677,"h":772},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":386,"h":772},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1194,"h":772}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988114803672694784"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"quoted_status_id_str":"1988096559029145718","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/JJZol2wHGH","expanded":"https://twitter.com/0xBeyondLee/status/1988096559029145718","display":"x.com/0xBeyondLee/st…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988114872710922545","view_count":3919,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1762838497000,"favorite_count":14,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1988114872710922545","full_text":"致各位股东:\n\n我将不再撰写伯克希尔的年度报告,也不会在年度会议上滔滔不绝。用英国人的话说,我将“保持沉默”。\n\n算是吧。\n\n格雷格·阿贝尔将于年底接任。他是一位出色的管理者,一个不知疲倦的工作者,以及一个的坦诚沟通者。祝他任期长久。\n\n我会通过每年的感恩节致辞继续与你们以及我的孩子们谈论伯克希尔的情况。伯克希尔的个人股东们是一群非常特别的人,他们总是慷慨地与那些不如他们幸运的人分享自己的收益。我很享受与你们保持联系的机会。今年请允许我先回忆一下往事。之后,我会谈谈我伯克希尔股份的分配计划。最后,我会分享一些业务和个人方面的看法。\n\n************\n\n随着感恩节的临近,我为自己活到 95 岁感到既感恩又惊讶。年轻时,这样的结果看起来希望渺茫。早些时候,我差点就死了。\n\n那是 1938 年,当时奥马哈的市民认为当地的医院要么是天主教的,要么是新教的,这种分类在当时看来是很自然的。\n\n我们的家庭医生哈雷·霍茨是个友善的天主教徒,他上门看病时总是背着一个黑色的医药包。霍茨医生叫我“小船长”,每次上门看病收费也不高。1938 年我肚子疼得厉害,霍茨医生来了,探查一番后告诉我,第二天早上就会好的。\n\n随后他回家吃了晚饭,还打了会儿桥牌。不过,霍茨医生始终忘不了我那些有点古怪的症状,当晚晚些时候便把我送到了圣凯瑟琳医院,给我做了紧急阑尾切除手术。接下来的三周里,我感觉自己就像置身于修道院,也开始喜欢上了我的新“讲台”。我喜欢说话——没错,那时也是——修女们对我很友好。\n\n最妙的是,三年级的马德森老师让班上的30个同学每人给我写一封信。我大概把男生们的信都扔了,而女生们的信我却反复读了很多遍;住院也有好处嘛。\n\n我康复期间最开心的事——其实头一周情况还很危险——是我那亲爱的艾迪姨妈送我的一份礼物。她给我带来了一套看起来非常专业的指纹采集工具,我马上给照顾我的修女们都采集了指纹。(我可能是圣凯瑟琳医院里她们见过的第一个新教徒孩子,她们也不知道该对我有什么期待。)\n\n我的想法——当然完全是异想天开——是总有一天会有个修女犯了法,而联邦调查局会发现他们居然没有给修女们采集指纹。联邦调查局及其局长 J. 埃德加·胡佛在 20 世纪 30 年代已为美国人所敬仰,我想象着胡佛先生亲自来到奥马哈来查看我那珍贵的指纹收藏。我还幻想我和 J. 埃德加能迅速找出并逮捕那个失足的修女。全国性的声誉似乎唾手可得。\n\n显然,我的幻想从未实现。但颇具讽刺意味的是,几年后我才发现,当时我本应给 J. 埃德加本人采集指纹,因为他后来因滥用职权而身败名裂。\n\n嗯,那是 20 世纪 30 年代的奥马哈,那时我和其他小伙伴都渴望拥有一辆雪橇、一辆自行车、一副棒球手套和一辆电动火车。让我们来看看那个时代其他几个孩子,他们就住在附近,对我影响很大,但我很久都不知道他们的存在。\n\n我先从查理·芒格说起,他是我 64 年的好友。20 世纪 30 年代,查理就住在离我 1958 年起就一直居住的房子仅一个街区的地方。\n\n早些时候,我差点就和查理成为朋友了。查理比我大6岁半,1940 年夏天他在祖父的杂货店打工,每天工作10个小时挣2美元。(节俭是巴菲特家族的传统。)第二年我也在店里干过类似的工作,但直到1959年我才见到查理,那时他35岁,我28岁。\n\n二战服役结束后,查理从哈佛法学院毕业,然后永久定居在加利福尼亚。然而,查理却一直将自己在奥马哈的早年岁月视为人生的重要阶段。六十多年来,查理对我影响巨大,他是一位极好的老师,也是我保护有加的“大哥”。我们之间虽有分歧,但从无争执。他从不说“我早就跟你说过”。\n\n1958 年,我买了我的第一套也是唯一一套房子。当然,它在奥马哈,离我成长的地方(大致说来)约两英里,离我岳父母家不到两个街区,离巴菲特杂货店约六个街区,开车到我工作了 64年的办公楼只需 6 到 7 分钟。\n\n让我们来谈谈另一位奥马哈人斯坦·利普西。1968 年,斯坦将《奥马哈太阳报》(周报)卖给了伯克希尔,十年后应我的请求搬到了布法罗。当时伯克希尔旗下一家子公司拥有的《布法罗晚报》正与该市唯一的周日报纸的出版商——其早报竞争对手展开生死较量,而我们正节节败退。\n\n斯坦最终打造出了我们新的《星期日》产品,此后数年,我们这项原本每年都在大量亏损的投资,每年(税前)的回报率都超过了100%。在20世纪80年代初,这笔3300万美元的投资对伯克希尔来说是一笔重要的资金。\n\n斯坦在我家附近大约五个街区的地方长大。斯坦的一位邻居是小沃尔特·斯科特。沃尔特,您应该还记得,他在 1999 年将中美能源公司带到了伯克希尔。他还是伯克希尔的董事,直到 2021年去世,也是我的挚友。几十年来,沃尔特一直是内布拉斯加州的慈善领袖,奥马哈和整个州都留下了他深深的印记。\n\n沃尔特上了本森高中,我也原本打算去那所学校上学——直到 1942 年,我父亲出人意料地在国会竞选中击败了连任四届的对手。生活总是充满惊喜。\n\n等等,还有更多。\n\n1959 年,唐·基奥和他的年轻家庭住在离我家街对面、距离芒格家旧居约 100 码远的一所房子里。当时唐是一名咖啡推销员,但后来他成为了可口可乐公司的总裁,并且是伯克希尔公司的忠实董事。\n\n我认识唐的时候,他一年挣 12000 美元,而他和妻子米基还要抚养五个孩子,这些孩子都得上天主教学校(学费不菲)。\n\n我们两家很快成了挚友。唐来自爱荷华州西北部的一个农场,毕业于奥马哈市的克雷顿大学。早年,他娶了奥马哈姑娘米基。加入可口可乐公司后,唐很快就在全球声名远扬。\n\n1985 年,唐担任可口可乐公司总裁期间,公司推出了命运多舛的新可口可乐。唐发表了一次著名的演讲,向公众道歉,并重新推出了“老”可口可乐。这一转变发生在唐解释说,寄给“至高无上的白痴”的信件会迅速送到他的办公桌上之后。他的“撤回”演讲堪称经典,可在YouTube 上观看。他愉快地承认,实际上可口可乐产品属于公众而非公司。随后销量大幅上升。\n\n您可以在 https://t.co/UngDEv31eq 上观看唐的一次精彩访谈。(汤姆·墨菲和凯·格雷厄姆也有几段精彩的内容。)和查理·芒格一样,唐始终是个地道的中西部男孩,热情、友善,骨子里透着十足的美国味儿。\n\n最后,出生于印度并在那里长大的阿吉特·贾恩(Ajit Jain)以及即将成为我们首席执行官的加拿大人格雷格·阿贝尔(Greg Abel),在 20 世纪末都曾在奥马哈生活了数年。事实上,在 20世纪 90 年代,格雷格就住在离我仅几个街区远的法纳姆街(Farnam Street),不过当时我们从未谋面。\n\n难道奥马哈的水里有什么神奇的成分吗?\n\n************\n\n我十几岁时在华盛顿特区生活过几年(当时我父亲在国会任职),1954 年我在曼哈顿找到了一份我以为会干一辈子的工作。在那里,本·格雷厄姆和杰里·纽曼对我很好,我也结交了许多终生的朋友。纽约有着独特的魅力——至今依然如此。然而,仅仅一年半之后,在 1956 年,我还是回到了奥马哈,从此再也没有离开过。\n\n后来,我的三个孩子以及几个孙辈都在奥马哈长大。我的孩子们一直就读于公立学校(从同一所高中毕业,这所高中培养了我父亲(1921 届)、我的第一任妻子苏西(1950 届),还有对内布拉斯加家具商场的发展起到关键作用的查理、斯坦·利普西、厄夫和罗恩·布卢姆金,以及1923 届的杰克·林格瓦尔特,他创立了国民赔偿保险公司,并于 1967 年将其出售给伯克希尔,成为我们庞大的财产险业务的基础)。\n\n************\n\n我们国家有很多伟大的公司、伟大的学校、伟大的医疗机构,每个地方都有其独特的优势,也都有才华出众的人。但我感到非常幸运,能有幸结交许多一生的朋友,能遇到我的两位妻子,在公立学校接受良好的教育,年幼时就能结识许多有趣且友善的奥马哈成年人,还能在内布拉斯加州国民警卫队结识各种各样的朋友。总之,内布拉斯加州一直是我真正的家。\n\n回首往事,我觉得伯克希尔和我之所以能取得更好的成绩,很大程度上是因为我们扎根于奥马哈。如果我出生在其他地方,结果可能就大不一样了。美国的中心地带是出生、养家和创业的绝佳之地。我出生时纯属运气好,抽到了一根长得出奇的签。\n\n************\n\n现在来说说我的高龄。我的基因并没有给我带来什么好处——家族长寿纪录(当然,追溯得越久远,家族记录就越模糊)一直是 92 岁,直到我打破了这个纪录。不过,我有睿智、友善且尽职尽责的奥马哈医生,从哈雷·霍茨医生开始,一直到现在。至少有三次,我的生命是被离家不远的医生们挽救的。(不过,我已经不再给护士们按指纹了。95 岁的人可以有很多怪癖……但也有个限度。)\n\n************\n\n活到老寿星这把年纪,得有极大的运气,每天都要躲过香蕉皮、自然灾害、醉酒或分心的司机、雷击等等,诸如此类的危险。\n\n但幸运女神反复无常,而且——没有别的词能形容——极其不公平。在很多情况下,我们的领导人和富人得到的幸运远远超过了他们应得的份额——而这些幸运儿往往不愿承认这一点。有些豪门子弟一出生就获得了终身的经济保障,而其他人则在幼年时期就面临着地狱般的困境,甚至更糟的是,身患残疾,失去了我视为理所当然的一切。在世界上很多人口稠密的地区,我可能会过着悲惨的生活,而我的姐妹们则会过上更糟糕的日子。\n\n我于 1930 年出生在美国,健康、聪明、白人、男性。哇!感谢幸运女神。我的姐妹们和我一样聪明,性格还比我好,但她们的人生前景却大不相同。幸运女神在我人生的大部分时间里都眷顾着我,但她可没空去照顾那些九十多岁的人。幸运也是有极限的。\n\n时光老人却恰恰相反,随着我年岁渐长,他愈发觉得我有趣了。他战无不胜;对他而言,每个人最终都算在他的“胜者”名单上。当平衡感、视力、听力和记忆力都持续走下坡路时,你就知道时光老人就在附近了。\n\n我步入老年的时间较晚——衰老的开始因人而异——但一旦出现,就无法否认。\n\n令我惊讶的是,我总体感觉良好。尽管行动迟缓,阅读也愈发吃力,但我每周仍会在办公室工作五天,与出色的人们共事。偶尔,我会冒出一些有用的想法,或者有人向我们提出一些原本可能不会有的提议。由于伯克希尔的规模以及市场状况,好的想法不多——但并非没有。\n\n************\n\n然而,我出乎意料的长寿却给我的家庭以及我慈善目标的实现带来了重大且不可避免的影响。\n\n让我们来探究一下它们。\n\n接下来是什么\n\n我的孩子们都已超过正常退休年龄,分别为 72 岁、70 岁和 67 岁。指望他们三人——在很多方面都已达到巅峰——能像我一样延缓衰老,这显然是不切实际的。为了提高他们在我指定的受托人取代他们之前处理完我几乎全部遗产的可能性,我需要加快向他们三个基金会的生前赠与。我的孩子们现在在经验和智慧方面都处于巅峰,但还未步入老年。这段“蜜月期”不会永远持续下去。\n\n幸运的是,调整方向很容易执行。不过,还有一个额外的因素需要考虑:我希望在伯克希尔的股东们像我和查理那样对格雷格充满信心之前,保留相当数量的“A”类股。这种程度的信任应该不会太久。我的孩子们已经百分之百支持格雷格,伯克希尔的董事们也是如此。\n\n如今这三个孩子都已成熟,头脑聪明,精力充沛,且富有本能,足以支配一大笔财富。在我去世很久之后,他们仍能活跃于世,这将是他们的优势所在。如有必要,他们可以采取既具前瞻性又具应对性的策略来应对联邦税收政策或其他影响慈善事业的发展。他们很可能需要适应周围世界发生的巨大变化。死后遥控指挥向来成效不佳,而我从未有过这种冲动。\n\n幸运的是,三个孩子都从母亲那里遗传了显性基因。随着岁月的流逝,我也逐渐成为他们思考和行为的更好榜样。然而,我永远无法与他们的母亲相提并论。\n\n我的孩子们有三位候补监护人,以防出现任何意外死亡或残疾的情况。这三位候补监护人不分先后顺序,也不与任何特定的孩子绑定。他们都是杰出的人,对世事洞明。他们没有任何相互冲突的动机。\n\n我已向孩子们保证,他们无需创造奇迹,也无需惧怕失败或失望。这些都是不可避免的,我也经历过。他们只需在政府活动和/或私人慈善事业通常所取得的成就基础上有所进步即可,同时要认识到这些财富再分配的方式也存在不足之处。\n\n早些时候,我曾构想过种种宏伟的慈善计划。尽管我性格执拗,但这些计划最终都未能实现。在我漫长的人生中,我也目睹了政客们拙劣的财富转移、家族式的抉择,当然还有那些不称职或古怪的慈善家。\n\n如果我的孩子们能干得不错,他们可以肯定,我和他们的母亲都会感到高兴。他们的直觉很好,而且他们每个人都有多年的实践经历,起初只是很小的数目,后来逐渐增加到每年超过5亿美元。\n\n这三个人都喜欢长时间工作来帮助他人,只是方式各不相同。\n\n************\n\n我加快向子女基金会捐赠的步伐,这绝不是因为我对伯克希尔的前景有了任何改变的看法。格雷格·阿贝尔的表现远超我当初认为他应成为伯克希尔下一任首席执行官时对他的期望。他对我们的许多业务和人员的了解远胜于我,而且对于很多首席执行官都不曾考虑的问题,他也能很快掌握。无论您说的是一位首席执行官、一位管理顾问、一位学者,还是一位政府官员,我都想不出有谁能比格雷格更适合来管理您和我的储蓄。\n\n例如,格雷格对我们的财产和意外险业务的潜在收益和风险的了解,远胜于许多长期从事这一业务的高管。我希望他的健康状况能保持良好几十年。如果运气好,伯克希尔在接下来的一个世纪里只需要五六个首席执行官。尤其要避免那些一心想着 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413 人\n\n我就能达到 10000 followers\n\n朋友\n\n我该去哪里寻找你? https://t.co/TTyhhTpN0G","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,37],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988192647794803098","view_count":7665,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1762857040000,"favorite_count":25,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":27,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"628509512","conversation_id_str":"1988192647794803098","full_text":"20岁多岁的男人\n\n请给30岁以上的男人一些建议 \n\n主题可以是任何方面","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,42],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1328686769508732929","name":"解构师 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