Norb is a keen observer of prediction markets and political trends, blending sharp analysis with a playful love for tennis. His tweets reveal a strategic mind constantly weighing probabilities and engaging with complex topics in a relatable way. Always curious, he navigates data and current events while sprinkling in humor and real-world passions.
For someone who studies prediction markets, Norbâs daily tweet storm looks more like a tennis rallyâlots of back and forth but sometimes you wonder if anyoneâs really keeping score or just watching the ball bounce around. Keep serving those insights, though; even if itâs a bit all over the court!
Norbâs standout achievement is mastering a sophisticated understanding of prediction markets well enough to spot nuanced trends early, gaining respect and engagement from a niche, thoughtful community on X.
Norbâs life purpose centers around unraveling uncertainty by forecasting outcomes and enhancing collective understanding through keen insights, helping his community make smarter decisions in chaotic environments.
He values critical thinking, informed skepticism, and the power of data-driven decision making, believing that even complex events can be broken down into understandable probabilities. Norb champions transparency and engagement within communities that intersect with prediction markets and technology.
His top strength lies in his ability to synthesize large amounts of information into actionable analysis, paired with an engaging communication style that invites others to think critically alongside him.
Norb sometimes overanalyzes to the point of indecision or may appear overly cautious in debates, which can dilute the immediacy and impact of his points.
To grow his audience on X, Norb should lean into his analytical prowess by creating threaded deep-dives on trending prediction market events and engage more with influential accounts in crypto and political forecasting. Using polls and interactive questions can also boost engagement and solidify his status as a go-to thinker in his niche.
Norb is a self-proclaimed âRight-curve wannabeâ and a tennis addict who eagerly combines sport with his passion for analyzing market signals and political predictions.
So am I right @pasternak and @believeapp just rugged everyone (me included) who provided liquidity to @meteora and other LPs and didn't make a snapshot during
$LAUNCHCOIN -> $BELIEVE migration?
Time 2025 Person of the Year
There arenât many @Polymarket markets where you can actually have an edge, but this one looks really interesting to me. Letâs take a closer look at the leaders.
1ď¸âŁArtificial Intelligence is leading the market rn and it makes sense:
- Thereâs already a historical precedent for TIME awarding the title not to a human - in 1982 the âPerson of the Yearâ was⌠The Computer.
- There arenât that many standout individuals this year who would clearly deserve the award.
2ď¸âŁPope Leo XIV is sitting in second place - the first American-born Pope with a set of relatively forward-looking views, which makes him a very dangerous contender.
3ď¸âŁTrump? No chance IMO. There was only one time in history when TIMEâs Person of the Year won this nomination two years in a row - Richard Nixon.
But Trump doesnât have many âwinsâ this year:
- questionable tariff policy,
- a failed meeting with Putin in Alaska,
- futile attempts to pressure Xi and China.
The only thing you could credit him for is the freeze in the Gaza conflict, but IMO thatâs far too little for the award - and especially not for a second consecutive year.
4ď¸âŁAs for Netanyahu, I donât even see a point in discussing him. TIME wonât risk giving the award to such a controversial figure, especially one under an international arrest warrant.
5ď¸âŁZohran Mamdani is an interesting character, and since TIME is considered a center-left outlet, that could slightly tilt them toward someone from the left. But still, I donât think he fits the scale of âPerson of the Year.â Itâs too local, too focused on U.S. politics.
So whatâs the takeaway?
AI and Pope Leo XIV (and possibly Zohran) look like strong YES candidates, but I still donât love that side because:
- thereâs a real risk that the winner will be someone or something not on the candidate list at all;
- a risk of some major event happening in the next month that flips everything upside down;
- thereâs a risk that TIME picks 2+ people this year, which has happened before.
So, I see two angles here.
âş You could buy YES for AI, Pope Leo XIV, and Zohran, but the risks above, especially the first one, worry me.
âş But my favorite play is buying NO on all candidates except AI, Pope Leo XIV, and Zohran. That way youâre effectively buying a ~35â40% chance that none of the listed candidates win.
What do you think about this analysis?
So am I right @pasternak and @believeapp just rugged everyone (me included) who provided liquidity to @meteora and other LPs and didn't make a snapshot during
$LAUNCHCOIN -> $BELIEVE migration?
Time 2025 Person of the Year
There arenât many @Polymarket markets where you can actually have an edge, but this one looks really interesting to me. Letâs take a closer look at the leaders.
1ď¸âŁArtificial Intelligence is leading the market rn and it makes sense:
- Thereâs already a historical precedent for TIME awarding the title not to a human - in 1982 the âPerson of the Yearâ was⌠The Computer.
- There arenât that many standout individuals this year who would clearly deserve the award.
2ď¸âŁPope Leo XIV is sitting in second place - the first American-born Pope with a set of relatively forward-looking views, which makes him a very dangerous contender.
3ď¸âŁTrump? No chance IMO. There was only one time in history when TIMEâs Person of the Year won this nomination two years in a row - Richard Nixon.
But Trump doesnât have many âwinsâ this year:
- questionable tariff policy,
- a failed meeting with Putin in Alaska,
- futile attempts to pressure Xi and China.
The only thing you could credit him for is the freeze in the Gaza conflict, but IMO thatâs far too little for the award - and especially not for a second consecutive year.
4ď¸âŁAs for Netanyahu, I donât even see a point in discussing him. TIME wonât risk giving the award to such a controversial figure, especially one under an international arrest warrant.
5ď¸âŁZohran Mamdani is an interesting character, and since TIME is considered a center-left outlet, that could slightly tilt them toward someone from the left. But still, I donât think he fits the scale of âPerson of the Year.â Itâs too local, too focused on U.S. politics.
So whatâs the takeaway?
AI and Pope Leo XIV (and possibly Zohran) look like strong YES candidates, but I still donât love that side because:
- thereâs a real risk that the winner will be someone or something not on the candidate list at all;
- a risk of some major event happening in the next month that flips everything upside down;
- thereâs a risk that TIME picks 2+ people this year, which has happened before.
So, I see two angles here.
âş You could buy YES for AI, Pope Leo XIV, and Zohran, but the risks above, especially the first one, worry me.
âş But my favorite play is buying NO on all candidates except AI, Pope Leo XIV, and Zohran. That way youâre effectively buying a ~35â40% chance that none of the listed candidates win.
What do you think about this analysis?
Consistency = Superpower ⢠Get Lean and Get Fit ⢠15k steps/day ⢠Protein + Fiber first ⢠Sleep + Circadian alignment ⢠#Bitcoin
(Tweets not medical advice)
121following482followers
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Always curious, he navigates data and current events while sprinkling in humor and real-world passions.","facts":"Norb is a self-proclaimed âRight-curve wannabeâ and a tennis addict who eagerly combines sport with his passion for analyzing market signals and political predictions.","purpose":"Norbâs life purpose centers around unraveling uncertainty by forecasting outcomes and enhancing collective understanding through keen insights, helping his community make smarter decisions in chaotic environments.","beliefs":"He values critical thinking, informed skepticism, and the power of data-driven decision making, believing that even complex events can be broken down into understandable probabilities. 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Keep serving those insights, though; even if itâs a bit all over the court!","win":"Norbâs standout achievement is mastering a sophisticated understanding of prediction markets well enough to spot nuanced trends early, gaining respect and engagement from a niche, thoughtful community on X."},"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,197],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/wPLVH0C82W","expanded_url":"https://x.com/norbhere/status/1983667193134117024/photo/1","id_str":"1983666538243600384","indices":[198,221],"media_key":"3_1983666538243600384","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4dmNOTWsAAOlkK.png","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/wPLVH0C82W","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":131,"w":720,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":131,"w":720,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":124,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":131,"w":131,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":131,"width":720,"focus_rects":[{"x":405,"y":0,"w":234,"h":131},{"x":457,"y":0,"w":131,"h":131},{"x":465,"y":0,"w":115,"h":131},{"x":489,"y":0,"w":66,"h":131},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":720,"h":131}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1983666538243600384"}}}],"symbols":[{"indices":[160,171],"text":"LAUNCHCOIN"},{"indices":[178,186],"text":"BELIEVE"}],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"356651832","name":"Ben Pasternak","screen_name":"pasternak","indices":[14,24]},{"id_str":"1849494185151168512","name":"Believe","screen_name":"believeapp","indices":[29,40]},{"id_str":"16375825","name":"meteora","screen_name":"meteora","indices":[102,110]}]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/wPLVH0C82W","expanded_url":"https://x.com/norbhere/status/1983667193134117024/photo/1","id_str":"1983666538243600384","indices":[198,221],"media_key":"3_1983666538243600384","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4dmNOTWsAAOlkK.png","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/wPLVH0C82W","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":131,"w":720,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":131,"w":720,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":124,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":131,"w":131,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":131,"width":720,"focus_rects":[{"x":405,"y":0,"w":234,"h":131},{"x":457,"y":0,"w":131,"h":131},{"x":465,"y":0,"w":115,"h":131},{"x":489,"y":0,"w":66,"h":131},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":720,"h":131}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1983666538243600384"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983667193134117024","view_count":31400,"bookmark_count":6,"created_at":1761778088000,"favorite_count":54,"quote_count":8,"reply_count":15,"retweet_count":6,"user_id_str":"609863069","conversation_id_str":"1983667193134117024","full_text":"So am I right @pasternak and @believeapp just rugged everyone (me included) who provided liquidity to @meteora and other LPs and didn't make a snapshot during \n$LAUNCHCOIN -> $BELIEVE migration? https://t.co/wPLVH0C82W","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,281],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/YTirhOxKUm","expanded_url":"https://x.com/norbhere/status/1989719591916892540/photo/1","ext_alt_text":"Polymarket chances for Time 2005 Person of the Year.","id_str":"1989718779584978944","indices":[282,305],"media_key":"3_1989718779584978944","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5zmsCQWIAAEnG2.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/YTirhOxKUm","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"all":{"tags":[{"user_id":"1965783030062022656","name":"Polymarket Traders","screen_name":"PolymarketTrade","type":"user"}]},"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":763,"w":958,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":763,"w":958,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":542,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":763,"width":958,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":227,"w":958,"h":536},{"x":195,"y":0,"w":763,"h":763},{"x":289,"y":0,"w":669,"h":763},{"x":576,"y":0,"w":382,"h":763},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":958,"h":763}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1989718779584978944"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1261335549215989760","name":"Polymarket","screen_name":"Polymarket","indices":[48,59]},{"id_str":"1261335549215989760","name":"Polymarket","screen_name":"Polymarket","indices":[48,59]}]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/YTirhOxKUm","expanded_url":"https://x.com/norbhere/status/1989719591916892540/photo/1","ext_alt_text":"Polymarket chances for Time 2005 Person of the Year.","id_str":"1989718779584978944","indices":[282,305],"media_key":"3_1989718779584978944","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5zmsCQWIAAEnG2.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/YTirhOxKUm","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"all":{"tags":[{"user_id":"1965783030062022656","name":"Polymarket Traders","screen_name":"PolymarketTrade","type":"user"}]},"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":763,"w":958,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":763,"w":958,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":542,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":763,"width":958,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":227,"w":958,"h":536},{"x":195,"y":0,"w":763,"h":763},{"x":289,"y":0,"w":669,"h":763},{"x":576,"y":0,"w":382,"h":763},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":958,"h":763}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1989718779584978944"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989719591916892540","view_count":9097,"bookmark_count":29,"created_at":1763221092000,"favorite_count":52,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":13,"retweet_count":5,"user_id_str":"609863069","conversation_id_str":"1989719591916892540","full_text":"Time 2025 Person of the Year\n\nThere arenât many @Polymarket markets where you can actually have an edge, but this one looks really interesting to me. Letâs take a closer look at the leaders.\n\n1ď¸âŁArtificial Intelligence is leading the market rn and it makes sense:\n- Thereâs already a historical precedent for TIME awarding the title not to a human - in 1982 the âPerson of the Yearâ was⌠The Computer.\n- There arenât that many standout individuals this year who would clearly deserve the award.\n\n2ď¸âŁPope Leo XIV is sitting in second place - the first American-born Pope with a set of relatively forward-looking views, which makes him a very dangerous contender.\n\n3ď¸âŁTrump? No chance IMO. There was only one time in history when TIMEâs Person of the Year won this nomination two years in a row - Richard Nixon.\nBut Trump doesnât have many âwinsâ this year: \n- questionable tariff policy, \n- a failed meeting with Putin in Alaska, \n- futile attempts to pressure Xi and China. \nThe only thing you could credit him for is the freeze in the Gaza conflict, but IMO thatâs far too little for the award - and especially not for a second consecutive year.\n\n4ď¸âŁAs for Netanyahu, I donât even see a point in discussing him. TIME wonât risk giving the award to such a controversial figure, especially one under an international arrest warrant.\n\n5ď¸âŁZohran Mamdani is an interesting character, and since TIME is considered a center-left outlet, that could slightly tilt them toward someone from the left. But still, I donât think he fits the scale of âPerson of the Year.â Itâs too local, too focused on U.S. politics.\n\nSo whatâs the takeaway?\nAI and Pope Leo XIV (and possibly Zohran) look like strong YES candidates, but I still donât love that side because:\n- thereâs a real risk that the winner will be someone or something not on the candidate list at all;\n- a risk of some major event happening in the next month that flips everything upside down;\n- thereâs a risk that TIME picks 2+ people this year, which has happened before.\n\nSo, I see two angles here. \nâş You could buy YES for AI, Pope Leo XIV, and Zohran, but the risks above, especially the first one, worry me.\n\nâş But my favorite play is buying NO on all candidates except AI, Pope Leo XIV, and Zohran. That way youâre effectively buying a ~35â40% chance that none of the listed candidates win. \n\nWhat do you think about this analysis?","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,83],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/R8GltTPe5T","expanded_url":"https://x.com/norbhere/status/1990805593909498089/photo/1","id_str":"1990805328397484032","indices":[84,107],"media_key":"3_1990805328397484032","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G6DC5gAWQAACqKC.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/R8GltTPe5T","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"all":{"tags":[{"user_id":"1261335549215989760","name":"Polymarket","screen_name":"Polymarket","type":"user"},{"user_id":"1965783030062022656","name":"Polymarket 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1.5 hours lol\n\nDo you think I have a chance to win? https://t.co/R8GltTPe5T","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,260],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/xaV5v8RSss","expanded_url":"https://x.com/norbhere/status/1963648825488294099/photo/1","id_str":"1963648799512875008","indices":[261,284],"media_key":"3_1963648799512875008","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G0BILeaWUAAWjqd.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/xaV5v8RSss","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":873,"w":1176,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":873,"w":1176,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":505,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":873,"width":1176,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1176,"h":659},{"x":152,"y":0,"w":873,"h":873},{"x":205,"y":0,"w":766,"h":873},{"x":370,"y":0,"w":437,"h":873},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1176,"h":873}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1963648799512875008"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[{"display_url":"drafted.fun/?r=IXHFSC","expanded_url":"https://www.drafted.fun?r=IXHFSC","url":"https://t.co/FQWOesoS54","indices":[237,260]}],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1960691264883712004","name":"drafteddotfun","screen_name":"drafteddotfun","indices":[37,51]}]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/xaV5v8RSss","expanded_url":"https://x.com/norbhere/status/1963648825488294099/photo/1","id_str":"1963648799512875008","indices":[261,284],"media_key":"3_1963648799512875008","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G0BILeaWUAAWjqd.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/xaV5v8RSss","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":873,"w":1176,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":873,"w":1176,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":505,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":873,"width":1176,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1176,"h":659},{"x":152,"y":0,"w":873,"h":873},{"x":205,"y":0,"w":766,"h":873},{"x":370,"y":0,"w":437,"h":873},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1176,"h":873}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1963648799512875008"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1963648825488294099","view_count":558,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1757005337000,"favorite_count":6,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"609863069","conversation_id_str":"1963648825488294099","full_text":"You 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the Year\n\nThere arenât many @Polymarket markets where you can actually have an edge, but this one looks really interesting to me. Letâs take a closer look at the leaders.\n\n1ď¸âŁArtificial Intelligence is leading the market rn and it makes sense:\n- Thereâs already a historical precedent for TIME awarding the title not to a human - in 1982 the âPerson of the Yearâ was⌠The Computer.\n- There arenât that many standout individuals this year who would clearly deserve the award.\n\n2ď¸âŁPope Leo XIV is sitting in second place - the first American-born Pope with a set of relatively forward-looking views, which makes him a very dangerous contender.\n\n3ď¸âŁTrump? No chance IMO. There was only one time in history when TIMEâs Person of the Year won this nomination two years in a row - Richard Nixon.\nBut Trump doesnât have many âwinsâ this year: \n- questionable tariff policy, \n- a failed meeting with Putin in Alaska, \n- futile attempts to pressure Xi and China. \nThe only thing you could credit him for is the freeze in the Gaza conflict, but IMO thatâs far too little for the award - and especially not for a second consecutive year.\n\n4ď¸âŁAs for Netanyahu, I donât even see a point in discussing him. TIME wonât risk giving the award to such a controversial figure, especially one under an international arrest warrant.\n\n5ď¸âŁZohran Mamdani is an interesting character, and since TIME is considered a center-left outlet, that could slightly tilt them toward someone from the left. 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Letâs take a closer look at the leaders.\n\n1ď¸âŁArtificial Intelligence is leading the market rn and it makes sense:\n- Thereâs already a historical precedent for TIME awarding the title not to a human - in 1982 the âPerson of the Yearâ was⌠The Computer.\n- There arenât that many standout individuals this year who would clearly deserve the award.\n\n2ď¸âŁPope Leo XIV is sitting in second place - the first American-born Pope with a set of relatively forward-looking views, which makes him a very dangerous contender.\n\n3ď¸âŁTrump? No chance IMO. 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But still, I donât think he fits the scale of âPerson of the Year.â Itâs too local, too focused on U.S. politics.\n\nSo whatâs the takeaway?\nAI and Pope Leo XIV (and possibly Zohran) look like strong YES candidates, but I still donât love that side because:\n- thereâs a real risk that the winner will be someone or something not on the candidate list at all;\n- a risk of some major event happening in the next month that flips everything upside down;\n- thereâs a risk that TIME picks 2+ people this year, which has happened before.\n\nSo, I see two angles here. \nâş You could buy YES for AI, Pope Leo XIV, and Zohran, but the risks above, especially the first one, worry me.\n\nâş But my favorite play is buying NO on all candidates except AI, Pope Leo XIV, and Zohran. 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the Year\n\nThere arenât many @Polymarket markets where you can actually have an edge, but this one looks really interesting to me. Letâs take a closer look at the leaders.\n\n1ď¸âŁArtificial Intelligence is leading the market rn and it makes sense:\n- Thereâs already a historical precedent for TIME awarding the title not to a human - in 1982 the âPerson of the Yearâ was⌠The Computer.\n- There arenât that many standout individuals this year who would clearly deserve the award.\n\n2ď¸âŁPope Leo XIV is sitting in second place - the first American-born Pope with a set of relatively forward-looking views, which makes him a very dangerous contender.\n\n3ď¸âŁTrump? No chance IMO. There was only one time in history when TIMEâs Person of the Year won this nomination two years in a row - Richard Nixon.\nBut Trump doesnât have many âwinsâ this year: \n- questionable tariff policy, \n- a failed meeting with Putin in Alaska, \n- futile attempts to pressure Xi and China. \nThe only thing you could credit him for is the freeze in the Gaza conflict, but IMO thatâs far too little for the award - and especially not for a second consecutive year.\n\n4ď¸âŁAs for Netanyahu, I donât even see a point in discussing him. TIME wonât risk giving the award to such a controversial figure, especially one under an international arrest warrant.\n\n5ď¸âŁZohran Mamdani is an interesting character, and since TIME is considered a center-left outlet, that could slightly tilt them toward someone from the left. 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the Year\n\nThere arenât many @Polymarket markets where you can actually have an edge, but this one looks really interesting to me. Letâs take a closer look at the leaders.\n\n1ď¸âŁArtificial Intelligence is leading the market rn and it makes sense:\n- Thereâs already a historical precedent for TIME awarding the title not to a human - in 1982 the âPerson of the Yearâ was⌠The Computer.\n- There arenât that many standout individuals this year who would clearly deserve the award.\n\n2ď¸âŁPope Leo XIV is sitting in second place - the first American-born Pope with a set of relatively forward-looking views, which makes him a very dangerous contender.\n\n3ď¸âŁTrump? No chance IMO. There was only one time in history when TIMEâs Person of the Year won this nomination two years in a row - Richard Nixon.\nBut Trump doesnât have many âwinsâ this year: \n- questionable tariff policy, \n- a failed meeting with Putin in Alaska, \n- futile attempts to pressure Xi and China. \nThe only thing you could credit him for is the freeze in the Gaza conflict, but IMO thatâs far too little for the award - and especially not for a second consecutive year.\n\n4ď¸âŁAs for Netanyahu, I donât even see a point in discussing him. TIME wonât risk giving the award to such a controversial figure, especially one under an international arrest warrant.\n\n5ď¸âŁZohran Mamdani is an interesting character, and since TIME is considered a center-left outlet, that could slightly tilt them toward someone from the left. But still, I donât think he fits the scale of âPerson of the Year.â Itâs too local, too focused on U.S. politics.\n\nSo whatâs the takeaway?\nAI and Pope Leo XIV (and possibly Zohran) look like strong YES candidates, but I still donât love that side because:\n- thereâs a real risk that the winner will be someone or something not on the candidate list at all;\n- a risk of some major event happening in the next month that flips everything upside down;\n- thereâs a risk that TIME picks 2+ people this year, which has happened before.\n\nSo, I see two angles here. \nâş You could buy YES for AI, Pope Leo XIV, and Zohran, but the risks above, especially the first one, worry me.\n\nâş But my favorite play is buying NO on all candidates except AI, Pope Leo XIV, and Zohran. 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Just yesterday he was at crazy 12%","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1804867531250757632","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989727496712196177","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[38,77],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1956602936047423488","name":"xart","screen_name":"xarteth","indices":[0,8]},{"id_str":"1261335549215989760","name":"Polymarket","screen_name":"Polymarket","indices":[9,20]},{"id_str":"1965783030062022656","name":"Polymarket Traders","screen_name":"PolymarketTrade","indices":[21,37]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"xarteth","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989841437656326533","view_count":178,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763250142000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"609863069","conversation_id_str":"1989719591916892540","full_text":"@xarteth @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade yep, and it's become stronger every day","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1956602936047423488","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989789042603667747","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[40,285],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1867909225747230720","name":"Ivan Haiko","screen_name":"HaikoIvan","indices":[0,10]},{"id_str":"1261335549215989760","name":"Polymarket","screen_name":"Polymarket","indices":[11,22]},{"id_str":"1965783030062022656","name":"Polymarket Traders","screen_name":"PolymarketTrade","indices":[23,39]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"HaikoIvan","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989773511922258370","view_count":225,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763233948000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"609863069","conversation_id_str":"1989719591916892540","full_text":"@HaikoIvan @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade Actually yes, Pope John XXIII won in 1962, and Ayatollah Khomeini won in 1979. \n\nBut the current Pope is clearly far less significant than those two. 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Always plugged into cutting-edge tools and models, they turn raw data into strategic wisdom for their audience.","facts":"Despite tweeting over 12,500 times, JinLian78 follows more than a thousand accounts but has an undefined follower count, indicating a broad, research-driven engagement rather than popularity chasing.","purpose":"To decode the overwhelming complexity of DeFi and crypto data into actionable insights that empower traders and developers to make informed, smarter decisions in rapidly evolving markets.","beliefs":"JinLian78 believes that layered, dynamic data models outperform static analysis in capturing market realities, open-source collaboration fuels innovation, and continuous iteration is key to mastering decentralized finance ecosystems.","strength":"Exceptional ability to translate highly technical subjects into engaging narratives; deep knowledge of market mechanisms and emerging tech; strong analytical mindset backed by extensive tweet activity demonstrating consistency and expertise.","weakness":"May sometimes get lost in technical jargon and deep analysis, potentially alienating casual followers; engagement might feel more one-way, prioritizing information dumping over community interaction.","recommendation":"To grow their audience on X, JinLian78 should balance their intense analysis with more approachable explainer threads and interactive polls that invite followers to ask questions or share their own insights, building a two-way dialogue around complex topics.","roast":"For someone who tweets more than a dinner guest talks, JinLian78 could single-handedly power a small countryâs electricity grid with all that hot data â maybe slow down or some of us will need liquid nitrogen to keep up with all that brain freeze!","win":"Masterminded a viral, detailed thread breaking down $MMTFinanceâs DeFi innovations on $SUI that catalyzed recalibrations in market models among seasoned crypto watchers, cementing their reputation as a top-tier analyst in the space."},"created":1763567921679,"type":"the analyst","id":"jinlian78"},{"user":{"id":"1572779645828997120","name":"Howe çĽé | đđąđđ˘","description":"| ex-VC\n| 大红饚çŽĺŻťčĄççŹ+饚çŽćč§Ł\n| ăçĽé ç莺ăä˝č \n| 交ćĺ Ľé¨ đđť https://t.co/WYuaF4oznn\n| ĺĺ¸ĺć°¸čżçĺŚçďźĺćč´¨éçćçŤ \n| ĺ łćł¨ćďźĺŤéčżćĺŽćć´ć°ç饚çŽĺćč°ç ","followers_count":7699,"friends_count":1107,"statuses_count":6466,"profile_image_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1938548521906663424/owPx0QUF_normal.jpg","screen_name":"0xcryptoHowe","location":"","entities":{"description":{"urls":[{"display_url":"linktr.ee/cryptoHowe","expanded_url":"https://linktr.ee/cryptoHowe","url":"https://t.co/WYuaF4oznn","indices":[45,68]}]},"url":{"urls":[{"display_url":"t.me/cryptohowe_treâŚ","expanded_url":"https://t.me/cryptohowe_treasure","url":"https://t.co/FrtXy8JU8H","indices":[0,23]}]}}},"details":{"type":"The Analyst","description":"Howe çĽé | đđąđđ˘ is a data-driven crypto researcher and ex-VC who meticulously dissects blockchain projects with precision. 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They cut through the noise with no-fluff guides and practical strategies to gain an edge where others see confusion. Their deep dives into weather, earnings, and breaking news markets reveal a mind wired for finding mispriced opportunities before anyone else.","facts":"Fun fact: Gemchanger literally uses databases of hurricane data and federal filings to outsmart crowds on Polymarketâbecause why guess when you can use NOAA and SEC APIs to trade smarter?","purpose":"Their life purpose is to empower themselves and others through mastery of prediction markets by leveraging real data and analytics, turning raw information into actionable profit and knowledge. They aim to transform chaos and emotion-driven markets into a logical playground where skillful analysis triumphs.","beliefs":"Gemchanger values accuracy, transparency, and the power of evidence-based decision-making. They believe markets are inherently emotional and inefficient, and that those who harness objective data and pioneering tools can consistently beat the herd. They embrace skepticism toward hype and trust in solid source data over rumors or consensus opinions.","strength":"Exceptional analytical skills, mastery of data sources, and the ability to synthesize complex information into actionable insights make Gemchanger a formidable trader. Their commitment to cutting edge tools and automation enables them to act faster and with more precision than average market participants.","weakness":"Their heavy reliance on data and technical models may cause them to miss out on social and psychological nuances driving market behavior, or alienate non-technical followers who prefer simple narratives. Also, the intense focus on numbers might sometimes verge on paralysis by analysis or a risk-averse approach.","recommendation":"To grow their audience on X, Gemchanger should blend their rigorous analytical content with some engaging, personality-driven storytelling. Sharing quick tips, trade anecdotes with human angle, and interactive polls or AMAs could demystify their deep dives and attract less technical traders. Leveraging viral threads on breaking news nuances and collaborating with influencers in fintech would also boost their reach.","roast":"Gemchanger probably spends so much time analyzing charts and data, theyâd rather debate microsecond latency of a trade than remember where they left their coffee. If overthinking was an Olympic sport, theyâd win gold while still drafting a spreadsheet on strategy optimization.","win":"Their biggest win is building a comprehensive, no-nonsense playbook for prediction market tools and strategies that consistently identify and exploit market inefficienciesâturning complex data into real profit in cutting-edge decentralized finance markets."},"created":1763564846177,"type":"the analyst","id":"gemchange_ltd"},{"user":{"id":"833574591029092352","name":"LeoäšéŁ","description":"Ex @Apple Core & University | Memes | #Alpha hunter | Analysis | 2016éŚćŹĄćĽč§ŚBTCďź2025č§čŻć为ćçĽĺ¨ĺ¤ ...| ç¨éžä¸ć°ćŽć°ćŽć察交ćďźçĺťä¸ä¸ä¸ŞAlpha...","followers_count":16102,"friends_count":3568,"statuses_count":5959,"profile_image_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1924981270913941506/KFzrcqTz_normal.jpg","screen_name":"leo7_lau","location":"","entities":{"description":{"urls":[]},"url":{"urls":[{"display_url":"mirror.xyz/ui-chain.eth","expanded_url":"https://mirror.xyz/ui-chain.eth","url":"https://t.co/MFYDp4DmxA","indices":[0,23]}]}}},"details":{"type":"The Analyst","description":"LeoäšéŁ is a data-driven crypto enthusiast who blends sharp analysis with meme culture and community engagement. With a knack for reading on-chain data and spotting market alphas, he navigates the complex waves of blockchain and DeFi like a seasoned strategist. His content balances deep insights with relatable storytelling, making the crypto world both accessible and exciting.","purpose":"To empower retail investors and crypto followers by providing actionable, on-chain data analysis and insightful market commentary, guiding them to spot the next big opportunity while cultivating a supportive Web3 community.","beliefs":"Leo believes in the power of data to illuminate the chaotic crypto landscape and that community-driven movements can democratize finance. He values transparency, resilience through market cycles, and the importance of blending rigorous analysis with human stories to keep the space relatable and inclusive.","facts":"Fun fact: Leo was an early Bitcoin adopter since 2016 and has witnessed multiple market cycles firsthand, using this historical perspective to inform his strategic insights and alpha hunting techniques.","strength":"Exceptional ability to synthesize complex blockchain data into digestible insights, a strong presence in crypto social communities, and a talent for weaving narrative and analysis that resonates with a broad audience.","weakness":"Leo's deep dive into technical analysis and niche topics might sometimes alienate casual followers, and his prolific tweeting could overwhelm or dilute the impact of his best insights.","recommendation":"To grow his audience on X, Leo should leverage his storytelling skill by creating thread series that break down complex analysis into step-by-step guides, paired with engaging memes to boost shareability. Hosting regular Twitter Spaces with well-known crypto voices and inviting audience Q&A would enhance community connection and follower loyalty.","roast":"For someone chasing alpha in crypto, Leo tweets so much data he might as well be the blockchainâdecentralized chaos with a sprinkle of memes trying to keep everyone awake at 3 AM! If tweeting was mining, heâd have cracked Bitcoin by now but still needs to find the block with fewer replies and more retweets.","win":"Successfully built a loyal and interactive community around his Web3 and crypto analysis, evidenced by streaming events with over 10,000 listeners and earning recognition in Binance Global Creator rankings (Top 15)."},"created":1763563837443,"type":"the analyst","id":"leo7_lau"},{"user":{"id":"1840128335629955076","name":"Chris V MD","description":"Consistency = Superpower ⢠Get Lean and Get Fit ⢠15k steps/day ⢠Protein + Fiber first ⢠Sleep + Circadian alignment ⢠#Bitcoin\n(Tweets not medical advice)","followers_count":482,"friends_count":121,"statuses_count":1831,"profile_image_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1981187178286723072/y01apvIf_normal.jpg","screen_name":"ChrisVMDHealth","location":"Berkeley, CA","entities":{"description":{"urls":[]}}},"details":{"type":"The Analyst","description":"Chris V MD is a methodical health science enthusiast who blends data-driven insights with consistent lifestyle habits to achieve peak metabolic health. With a focus on longevity, fitness, and cutting-edge health science, Chris uses deep dives into scientific discussions to educate and engage his audience. His mission is to bring clarity to complex health topics while promoting practical wellness strategies.","purpose":"Chris's life purpose centers on empowering others to take control of their health through evidence-based knowledge and consistent lifestyle choices. By dissecting complex medical and longevity topics, he aims to elevate public understanding of metabolic health and inspire long-term wellbeing.","beliefs":"Chris believes that consistency is the ultimate superpower in health and wellness. He values scientific rigor, transparency, and holistic approaches that prioritize natural foods, circadian alignment, and balanced nutrition. Skeptical of misinformation, he advocates for targeted interventions in metabolic health like improving insulin sensitivity and lipid profiles.","facts":"Fun fact: Chris walks a remarkable average of 15,000 steps per day, showing his commitment to combining scientific knowledge with active living â talk about practicing what you preach!","strength":"His analytical mindset allows him to break down complex medical studies and conversations into digestible, actionable insights for his audience. His consistency in both content creation and lifestyle habits underscores his credibility and inspires trust.","weakness":"Chris's highly detailed and scientific communication style might occasionally overwhelm audiences new to these topics or those seeking simpler, motivational content. Balancing deep dives with layman's terms could broaden his reach.","recommendation":"To grow his audience on X, Chris should mix in more bite-sized, relatable threads and engaging visuals alongside his in-depth analyses. Partnering with complementary influencers in fitness and longevity communities for collaborative Q&A sessions or live tweets can also boost visibility and engagement.","roast":"Chris is the kind of guy who reads a 100-page scientific paper before breakfast but might still struggle to explain âwhat exactly is a calorieâ to his friendsâreminding us that sometimes the best data need the simplest translation.","win":"Chrisâs biggest win is transforming complex longevity and metabolic health research into clear, consistently shared insights that have grown a loyal community who trust him for medically nuanced, practical wellness advice."},"created":1763562199346,"type":"the 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am I right @pasternak and @believeapp just rugged everyone (me included) who provided liquidity to @meteora and other LPs and didn't make a snapshot during \n$LAUNCHCOIN -> $BELIEVE migration? https://t.co/wPLVH0C82W","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-31","value":2,"startTime":1761782400000,"endTime":1761868800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[56,73],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1324771588617613312","name":"jingo","screen_name":"jing0_","indices":[0,7]},{"id_str":"356651832","name":"Ben Pasternak","screen_name":"pasternak","indices":[8,18]},{"id_str":"1849494185151168512","name":"Believe","screen_name":"believeapp","indices":[19,30]},{"id_str":"16375825","name":"meteora","screen_name":"meteora","indices":[31,39]},{"id_str":"1635493703996395521","name":"MetaDAO","screen_name":"MetaDAOProject","indices":[40,55]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"jing0_","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983904046445477905","view_count":509,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761834558000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"609863069","conversation_id_str":"1983667193134117024","full_text":"@jing0_ @pasternak @believeapp @meteora @MetaDAOProject what do you mean?","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1324771588617613312","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983903625996071061","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[47,189],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1808463960288432128","name":"Airdrop Hunter Kaisar","screen_name":"AirdropsIonut","indices":[0,14]},{"id_str":"356651832","name":"Ben Pasternak","screen_name":"pasternak","indices":[15,25]},{"id_str":"1849494185151168512","name":"Believe","screen_name":"believeapp","indices":[26,37]},{"id_str":"16375825","name":"meteora","screen_name":"meteora","indices":[38,46]},{"id_str":"1404234340783968258","name":"Soju çé | Meteora","screen_name":"0xSoju","indices":[102,109]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"AirdropsIonut","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983995570667823125","view_count":349,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761856379000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"609863069","conversation_id_str":"1983667193134117024","full_text":"@AirdropsIonut @pasternak @believeapp @meteora Try to open a ticket in a meteora discord and refer to @0xSoju yesterday's post.\n\nI already did it but it will be better if we have more 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the Year\n\nThere arenât many @Polymarket markets where you can actually have an edge, but this one looks really interesting to me. Letâs take a closer look at the leaders.\n\n1ď¸âŁArtificial Intelligence is leading the market rn and it makes sense:\n- Thereâs already a historical precedent for TIME awarding the title not to a human - in 1982 the âPerson of the Yearâ was⌠The Computer.\n- There arenât that many standout individuals this year who would clearly deserve the award.\n\n2ď¸âŁPope Leo XIV is sitting in second place - the first American-born Pope with a set of relatively forward-looking views, which makes him a very dangerous contender.\n\n3ď¸âŁTrump? No chance IMO. There was only one time in history when TIMEâs Person of the Year won this nomination two years in a row - Richard Nixon.\nBut Trump doesnât have many âwinsâ this year: \n- questionable tariff policy, \n- a failed meeting with Putin in Alaska, \n- futile attempts to pressure Xi and China. \nThe only thing you could credit him for is the freeze in the Gaza conflict, but IMO thatâs far too little for the award - and especially not for a second consecutive year.\n\n4ď¸âŁAs for Netanyahu, I donât even see a point in discussing him. TIME wonât risk giving the award to such a controversial figure, especially one under an international arrest warrant.\n\n5ď¸âŁZohran Mamdani is an interesting character, and since TIME is considered a center-left outlet, that could slightly tilt them toward someone from the left. But still, I donât think he fits the scale of âPerson of the Year.â Itâs too local, too focused on U.S. politics.\n\nSo whatâs the takeaway?\nAI and Pope Leo XIV (and possibly Zohran) look like strong YES candidates, but I still donât love that side because:\n- thereâs a real risk that the winner will be someone or something not on the candidate list at all;\n- a risk of some major event happening in the next month that flips everything upside down;\n- thereâs a risk that TIME picks 2+ people this year, which has happened before.\n\nSo, I see two angles here. \nâş You could buy YES for AI, Pope Leo XIV, and Zohran, but the risks above, especially the first one, worry me.\n\nâş But my favorite play is buying NO on all candidates except AI, Pope Leo XIV, and Zohran. 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the Year\n\nThere arenât many @Polymarket markets where you can actually have an edge, but this one looks really interesting to me. Letâs take a closer look at the leaders.\n\n1ď¸âŁArtificial Intelligence is leading the market rn and it makes sense:\n- Thereâs already a historical precedent for TIME awarding the title not to a human - in 1982 the âPerson of the Yearâ was⌠The Computer.\n- There arenât that many standout individuals this year who would clearly deserve the award.\n\n2ď¸âŁPope Leo XIV is sitting in second place - the first American-born Pope with a set of relatively forward-looking views, which makes him a very dangerous contender.\n\n3ď¸âŁTrump? No chance IMO. There was only one time in history when TIMEâs Person of the Year won this nomination two years in a row - Richard Nixon.\nBut Trump doesnât have many âwinsâ this year: \n- questionable tariff policy, \n- a failed meeting with Putin in Alaska, \n- futile attempts to pressure Xi and China. \nThe only thing you could credit him for is the freeze in the Gaza conflict, but IMO thatâs far too little for the award - and especially not for a second consecutive year.\n\n4ď¸âŁAs for Netanyahu, I donât even see a point in discussing him. TIME wonât risk giving the award to such a controversial figure, especially one under an international arrest warrant.\n\n5ď¸âŁZohran Mamdani is an interesting character, and since TIME is considered a center-left outlet, that could slightly tilt them toward someone from the left. 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the Year\n\nThere arenât many @Polymarket markets where you can actually have an edge, but this one looks really interesting to me. Letâs take a closer look at the leaders.\n\n1ď¸âŁArtificial Intelligence is leading the market rn and it makes sense:\n- Thereâs already a historical precedent for TIME awarding the title not to a human - in 1982 the âPerson of the Yearâ was⌠The Computer.\n- There arenât that many standout individuals this year who would clearly deserve the award.\n\n2ď¸âŁPope Leo XIV is sitting in second place - the first American-born Pope with a set of relatively forward-looking views, which makes him a very dangerous contender.\n\n3ď¸âŁTrump? No chance IMO. There was only one time in history when TIMEâs Person of the Year won this nomination two years in a row - Richard Nixon.\nBut Trump doesnât have many âwinsâ this year: \n- questionable tariff policy, \n- a failed meeting with Putin in Alaska, \n- futile attempts to pressure Xi and China. \nThe only thing you could credit him for is the freeze in the Gaza conflict, but IMO thatâs far too little for the award - and especially not for a second consecutive year.\n\n4ď¸âŁAs for Netanyahu, I donât even see a point in discussing him. TIME wonât risk giving the award to such a controversial figure, especially one under an international arrest warrant.\n\n5ď¸âŁZohran Mamdani is an interesting character, and since TIME is considered a center-left outlet, that could slightly tilt them toward someone from the left. But still, I donât think he fits the scale of âPerson of the Year.â Itâs too local, too focused on U.S. politics.\n\nSo whatâs the takeaway?\nAI and Pope Leo XIV (and possibly Zohran) look like strong YES candidates, but I still donât love that side because:\n- thereâs a real risk that the winner will be someone or something not on the candidate list at all;\n- a risk of some major event happening in the next month that flips everything upside down;\n- thereâs a risk that TIME picks 2+ people this year, which has happened before.\n\nSo, I see two angles here. \nâş You could buy YES for AI, Pope Leo XIV, and Zohran, but the risks above, especially the first one, worry me.\n\nâş But my favorite play is buying NO on all candidates except AI, Pope Leo XIV, and Zohran. 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Letâs take a closer look at the leaders.\n\n1ď¸âŁArtificial Intelligence is leading the market rn and it makes sense:\n- Thereâs already a historical precedent for TIME awarding the title not to a human - in 1982 the âPerson of the Yearâ was⌠The Computer.\n- There arenât that many standout individuals this year who would clearly deserve the award.\n\n2ď¸âŁPope Leo XIV is sitting in second place - the first American-born Pope with a set of relatively forward-looking views, which makes him a very dangerous contender.\n\n3ď¸âŁTrump? No chance IMO. There was only one time in history when TIMEâs Person of the Year won this nomination two years in a row - Richard Nixon.\nBut Trump doesnât have many âwinsâ this year: \n- questionable tariff policy, \n- a failed meeting with Putin in Alaska, \n- futile attempts to pressure Xi and China. \nThe only thing you could credit him for is the freeze in the Gaza conflict, but IMO thatâs far too little for the award - and especially not for a second consecutive year.\n\n4ď¸âŁAs for Netanyahu, I donât even see a point in discussing him. TIME wonât risk giving the award to such a controversial figure, especially one under an international arrest warrant.\n\n5ď¸âŁZohran Mamdani is an interesting character, and since TIME is considered a center-left outlet, that could slightly tilt them toward someone from the left. But still, I donât think he fits the scale of âPerson of the Year.â Itâs too local, too focused on U.S. politics.\n\nSo whatâs the takeaway?\nAI and Pope Leo XIV (and possibly Zohran) look like strong YES candidates, but I still donât love that side because:\n- thereâs a real risk that the winner will be someone or something not on the candidate list at all;\n- a risk of some major event happening in the next month that flips everything upside down;\n- thereâs a risk that TIME picks 2+ people this year, which has happened before.\n\nSo, I see two angles here. \nâş You could buy YES for AI, Pope Leo XIV, and Zohran, but the risks above, especially the first one, worry me.\n\nâş But my favorite play is buying NO on all candidates except AI, Pope Leo XIV, and Zohran. That way youâre effectively buying a ~35â40% chance that none of the listed candidates win. \n\nWhat do you think about this analysis?","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[101,129],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1851071406106103809","name":"Mikita","screen_name":"mikita_crypto","indices":[0,14]},{"id_str":"1261335549215989760","name":"Polymarket","screen_name":"Polymarket","indices":[15,26]},{"id_str":"1971742954391064577","name":"PolyBaddies","screen_name":"PolyBaddies","indices":[27,39]},{"id_str":"1969519970464722944","name":"Polymarket Bros","screen_name":"BrosOnPM","indices":[40,49]},{"id_str":"1800266527247106048","name":"Polymarket Sports","screen_name":"PolymarketSport","indices":[50,66]},{"id_str":"1965781090573893632","name":"Polymarket Builders","screen_name":"PolymarketBuild","indices":[67,83]},{"id_str":"1597364389048614912","name":"Polymarket Football","screen_name":"PolymarketBlitz","indices":[84,100]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"mikita_crypto","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"scopes":{"followers":false},"fact_check":null,"id":"1989729366331576670","view_count":20,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763223422000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"609863069","conversation_id_str":"1989699227232985130","full_text":"@mikita_crypto @Polymarket @PolyBaddies @BrosOnPM @PolymarketSport @PolymarketBuild @PolymarketBlitz You're a true marketer, bro!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1851071406106103809","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989699227232985130","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[46,116],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"945927904109744129","name":"crydevil","screen_name":"crydevil_crypto","indices":[0,16]},{"id_str":"1261335549215989760","name":"Polymarket","screen_name":"Polymarket","indices":[17,28]},{"id_str":"1965783030062022656","name":"Polymarket Traders","screen_name":"PolymarketTrade","indices":[29,45]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"crydevil_crypto","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989724660427030752","view_count":2404,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763222300000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"609863069","conversation_id_str":"1989721592339857650","full_text":"@crydevil_crypto @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade It looks like they decided to make a good addition to their salary lol","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"945927904109744129","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989721592339857650","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[42,79],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"3427065424","name":"MeCrypto","screen_name":"McryptoPlay","indices":[0,12]},{"id_str":"1261335549215989760","name":"Polymarket","screen_name":"Polymarket","indices":[13,24]},{"id_str":"1965783030062022656","name":"Polymarket Traders","screen_name":"PolymarketTrade","indices":[25,41]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"McryptoPlay","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989841750874361893","view_count":215,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763250217000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"609863069","conversation_id_str":"1989719591916892540","full_text":"@McryptoPlay @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade He has, but much less than 10â12% imo","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"3427065424","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989817194029388248","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[37,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1804867531250757632","name":"s0lven","screen_name":"s0lven","indices":[0,7]},{"id_str":"1261335549215989760","name":"Polymarket","screen_name":"Polymarket","indices":[8,19]},{"id_str":"1965783030062022656","name":"Polymarket Traders","screen_name":"PolymarketTrade","indices":[20,36]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"s0lven","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989728433300279609","view_count":237,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763223200000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"609863069","conversation_id_str":"1989719591916892540","full_text":"@s0lven @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade Totally agree, and the market is starting to realize that. Just yesterday he was at crazy 12%","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1804867531250757632","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989727496712196177","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[38,77],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1956602936047423488","name":"xart","screen_name":"xarteth","indices":[0,8]},{"id_str":"1261335549215989760","name":"Polymarket","screen_name":"Polymarket","indices":[9,20]},{"id_str":"1965783030062022656","name":"Polymarket Traders","screen_name":"PolymarketTrade","indices":[21,37]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"xarteth","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989841437656326533","view_count":178,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763250142000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"609863069","conversation_id_str":"1989719591916892540","full_text":"@xarteth @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade yep, and it's become stronger every day","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1956602936047423488","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989789042603667747","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[40,285],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1867909225747230720","name":"Ivan Haiko","screen_name":"HaikoIvan","indices":[0,10]},{"id_str":"1261335549215989760","name":"Polymarket","screen_name":"Polymarket","indices":[11,22]},{"id_str":"1965783030062022656","name":"Polymarket Traders","screen_name":"PolymarketTrade","indices":[23,39]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"HaikoIvan","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989773511922258370","view_count":225,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763233948000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"609863069","conversation_id_str":"1989719591916892540","full_text":"@HaikoIvan @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade Actually yes, Pope John XXIII won in 1962, and Ayatollah Khomeini won in 1979. \n\nBut the current Pope is clearly far less significant than those two. 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