Jeff Morris Jr. is a sharp, data-driven thinker who combines deep product expertise with a keen eye for investment opportunities and cultural commentary. His tweets reveal a blend of critical insight on market trends, education, and the future of work, making complex subjects digestible and engaging. With a prolific output, Jeff masterfully balances humor, critique, and forward-thinking advice.
If overthinking was an Olympic sport, Jeff might tweet the play-by-play, analyze the judging criteria, and still find a way to make it sound like a cautionary tale about existential dread—while simultaneously investing in the tech that tracks your heart rate doing all that thinking.
Successfully leveraged his product and investment expertise to back 12 unicorns early, cementing his status as a powerhouse in the tech and venture capital landscape.
To unravel the hidden patterns and underlying truths in business, culture, and technology while inspiring smarter, more informed decisions among his followers and the broader community.
Jeff values transparency, thoughtful innovation, and practical education. He believes in the power of data and analysis to challenge status quos, improve systems, and create value, especially emphasizing the human impact behind economic and technological trends.
Exceptional ability to distill complex concepts into clear, actionable insights and to spot trends ahead of the curve, while engaging a broad audience with thoughtful yet accessible commentary.
His high tweet volume and deeply analytical style might overwhelm casual followers, and his critical takes could sometimes alienate less data-driven audiences who prefer simpler narratives.
To grow his audience on X, Jeff should consider weaving more storytelling into his data-heavy content and introduce bite-sized threads that break down his deepest analyses, making them more accessible and shareable for a wider, less technical audience.
Jeff has managed to invest early in 12 unicorns and stays deeply involved in the startup ecosystem, pairing his analytical acumen with hands-on product leadership; plus, he’s never shy about admitting his unique ‘failed writer’ status.
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He ordered a glass of Santa Barbara pinot and told me: “I didn’t drink for a year. Then on New Year’s I woke up and realized how boring my life had become. So I had a few drinks that day, and suddenly life had color again.”\n\nWhen I asked why he quit in the first place, the answer was simple: better sleep, fewer distractions, full immersion in work.\n\nHe’s the type who goes all in, which is part of what makes him world-class. So when he discovered longevity, he didn’t dabble. He installed a hyperbaric chamber, bought an infrared sauna, and swapped happy hours for tennis matches.\n\nA year later, he’d landed on a middle ground. Still disciplined, but now sipping a couple of glasses of wine. Nothing extreme. And he seemed lighter, even happier.\n\nListening to him explain his new regimen, I realized how far we’d drifted from our twenties. Back then it was shots of top-shelf tequila. Now it’s top-shelf supplements and IV shots of NAD+.\n\nIn Los Angeles, status used to mean a G-Wagon in the driveway, a Nobu reservation, a Riviera golf membership, or a Bird Streets house “next to Leo.”\n\nThat game isn’t gone, but the subtler flex now looks less like Rodeo Drive and more like a medical lab.\n\nThe question isn’t “What car are you driving?” It’s “What’s your protocol?”\n\nDesigner closets have given way to microdosing GLP-1. Hollywood Bowl tickets have been swapped for Hyrox race entries that sell out faster than Coachella.\n\nBryan Johnson, Andrew Huberman, and Peter Attia are the new A-listers. Nobody’s quoting movies anymore, but everyone’s comparing T levels.\n\nIn tech WhatsApp groups, biomarker screenshots now circulate with the same energy Porsche waitlist confirmations once did.\n\nEven the biggest celebrities have joined in, turning their “health journeys” into content. In August, the Kardashians flew to Mexico for stem-cell therapy banned in the U.S., a ban that only made it more exclusive. Naturally, it became both an Instagram flex with a million likes and a tabloid headline.\n\nPart of it is just age. My friends are getting older, and the ones with early-adopter instincts—and money—have found a new playground in personalized medicine.\n\nThe same people who once hunted obscure apps or underground music are now swapping supplement stacks and sleep hacks.\n\nCOVID accelerated it. Locked indoors, people built home gyms, experimented with diets, and turned longevity from a fringe hobby into a mainstream obsession.\n\nThe old signals also got boring. A Ferrari says money. A cold plunge says enlightenment.\n\nAnd it’s not only millennials and middle age.\n\nFor younger New Yorkers, longevity isn’t about hacking DNA. It’s about escaping the chaos of city life and maybe finding a date.\n\nOn Saturdays, Bathhouse in Tribeca is the new brunch table. Forget bottomless mimosas. The real weekend move is sweating with strangers and hoping your soulmate shows up somewhere between the sauna and your third cold plunge. Contrast therapy is the new Tinder.\n\nSure, the longevity craze might look ridiculous from the outside at times. But it’s ridiculous with benefits. A Patek Philippe watch tells you the time, but an Apple Watch tells you your heart rate, sleep score, and how much stress you’re under.\n\nAt some point in my thirties, I realized health is the best ROI. Lose it and you’re only half-present at home, at work, and everywhere in between. I’d take a Prenuvo scan over another luxury purchase any day. Health compounds; things depreciate.\n\nBut like my friend who found a middle ground, I’ve come to see that joy matters too. Sometimes longevity means the glass of wine, the night out, the moment that keeps you human.\n\nThe old adage was that money can’t buy time. These days, that may no longer be entirely true.\n\nNow excuse me, my biomarkers are waiting.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,235],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"934571525960642561","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":23,"created_at":1511654189000,"favorite_count":3294,"quote_count":107,"reply_count":92,"retweet_count":1091,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"934571525960642561","full_text":"Most of the smartest thinkers I know are working in the cryptocurrency space. You can call this a bubble. Or you can educate yourself and try to understand why so many brilliant people are dedicating their lives to this emerging field.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,253],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1214706968679469056","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":307,"created_at":1578443684000,"favorite_count":3197,"quote_count":167,"reply_count":191,"retweet_count":401,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1214706968679469056","full_text":"The most interesting intellectual conversations on the Internet are happening on:\n\n1. Telegram (invite-only groups)\n2. WhatsApp (invite-only groups)\n3. Slack (invite-only groups)\n\nWelcome to the \"invite-only\" social internet. We're just getting started.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,286],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1212487514025414656","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":900,"created_at":1577914524000,"favorite_count":3081,"quote_count":100,"reply_count":54,"retweet_count":591,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1212487514025414656","full_text":"I spent weeks researching & writing my 2020 technology predictions. \n\n🎉 Time for some fun (thread)\n\n1. Future of Face ID: Apple won the early days of face authentication, which they’ll aggressively expand as a replacement for email & passwords.\n\nGoogle, Amazon, Facebook will...","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1202693905273065472","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":343,"created_at":1575579546000,"favorite_count":2894,"quote_count":68,"reply_count":42,"retweet_count":460,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1202693905273065472","full_text":"When looking for a startup to join, search for companies who are “succeeding despite themselves”:\n\n1. Product funnels aren’t optimized\n2. Marketing channels still being tested\n3. 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talks about AI slop. \nNo one talks about PE (private equity) slop.\n\n- restaurants that lost their soul\n- medical practices that feel like assembly lines\n- apartment buildings designed by an Excel formula\n\nThe algorithm didn’t kill culture. The margin model did. https://t.co/rPx7ztdMGQ","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,60],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"932630991298007041","name":"litquidity","screen_name":"litcapital","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"litcapital","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980648813561008268","view_count":24455,"bookmark_count":5,"created_at":1761058450000,"favorite_count":227,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@litcapital haha that’s what I’m saying, impossible to unsee","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"932630991298007041","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980647342371213594","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,51],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1301314271989518336","name":"illiquid","screen_name":"lefttailguy","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"lefttailguy","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980629841155330197","view_count":19708,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761053927000,"favorite_count":277,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@lefttailguy artisanal content, thank you very much","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1301314271989518336","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980628461417804114","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,161],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"156765498","name":"Michael Williams","screen_name":"mxwilliams","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"mxwilliams","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980633611884970415","view_count":14727,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761054826000,"favorite_count":149,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":16,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@mxwilliams maybe they would, most ppl hate going to the dentist for a variety of reasons.\n\n5% feels for a better experience is something ppl would prob pay for.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"156765498","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980632925075894309","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,134],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"14117767","name":"Jonas 🦩","screen_name":"jonaslamis","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"jonaslamis","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980506004510085379","view_count":17431,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761024402000,"favorite_count":126,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@jonaslamis You might be right. Maybe AI slop is just the tipping point that’s making us realize how sloppy the world has always been.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"14117767","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980505576590447033","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[17,63],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1081596786073128960","name":"Old white guy","screen_name":"obrecht_michael","indices":[0,16]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"obrecht_michael","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980676318359666791","view_count":11003,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1761065008000,"favorite_count":129,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@obrecht_michael thanks for sharing, not an easy thing to solve","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1081596786073128960","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980674670094373173","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-23","value":26,"startTime":1761091200000,"endTime":1761177600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,281],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981026514079805470","view_count":25016,"bookmark_count":69,"created_at":1761148501000,"favorite_count":210,"quote_count":3,"reply_count":26,"retweet_count":24,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981026514079805470","full_text":"There is a very big difference between running a venture fund and building a venture firm. \n\nI get a lot of aspiring venture capitalists who ask me about starting their own firm, and the quick thing I tell them is that they have to love company building & operations as much as they love investing. \n\nAt the end of the day, so much of your time is spent on fundraising, recruiting, and back office. You have to really love that stuff early on (or it least be good at it) when nobody is there to help you out.\n\nIf you don’t love the non-investing stuff or have enough self-awareness to know you're not good at it, you should definitely consider joining a platform. I have friends who are amazingly talented who have decided they only want to focus on investing, and they are very happy & many make a ton of money too. \n\nEasy to run a fund. Much harder to build a firm.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,237],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"935658795098832896","name":"Ibrahim S.","screen_name":"IbrahimS15","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"IbrahimS15","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980849065622683933","view_count":122,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761106194000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980666971650945285","full_text":"@IbrahimS15 This is the single best feedback from an interviewer that I've ever seen. I know it's hard to get past the rejection and the what-ifs of the opportunity, but use this as motivation, and you will do great things. Best of luck.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"935658795098832896","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980666971650945285","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-24","value":21,"startTime":1761177600000,"endTime":1761264000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981361260852892174","view_count":56764,"bookmark_count":42,"created_at":1761228311000,"favorite_count":96,"quote_count":5,"reply_count":20,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981361260852892174","full_text":"The death of SaaS has been overstated. \n\nWhen VCs or industry analysts say that SaaS is dead, they replace the word SaaS with AI agents or some other descriptor for B2B software.\n\nHuman addiction to technology is well known in the consumer space, and the same applies for anything in the enterprise. \n\nEnterprises are addicted to software, and whether the user is human or an agent doesn't matter. At the end of the day, there will always be a top 1% of founders and companies who design their software in a superior way to their competitors, and those will be massive companies where the TAM is even bigger than what was formerly called SaaS.\n\nSoftware is here to stay (with much more powerful capabilities!), which is such an obvious thing to state yet I'm hearing otherwise from my peers.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[9,288],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"6228302","name":"Sheel Mohnot","screen_name":"pitdesi","indices":[0,8]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"pitdesi","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981402156306760016","view_count":414,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761238061000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981381724702724256","full_text":"This is very true. \n\nI think from the outside, folks who hear this mistake the evolving business model with the death of an entire category of software.\n\nOrganizations are becoming even more software-obsessed, and there is a new generation of products that are quickly displacing incumbents. \n\nSoftware is obviously becoming easier to build, but the opportunity for venture capitalists is still massive. \n\nThese things feel so obvious to type, but you'd be surprised at how many conversations I have that revolve around this very topic.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"6228302","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981381724702724256","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[23,113],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"829946137","name":"Itai | dynamic.xyz","screen_name":"turbahn","indices":[0,8]},{"id_str":"1135606000868872192","name":"Fireblocks","screen_name":"FireblocksHQ","indices":[9,22]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"turbahn","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981417837395923151","view_count":264,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761241800000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981393151530254774","full_text":"@turbahn @FireblocksHQ Congrats, have loved working with you and the team the last few years. First class always.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"829946137","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981393151530254774","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-25","value":28,"startTime":1761264000000,"endTime":1761350400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981703025946501274","view_count":70,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761309794000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981703025946501274","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else you'll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should!), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. These are some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy and pursue the deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981703548401520684","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761309918000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981703548401520684","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else you'll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should!), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. These investments will stand out in your data room so you might as well get ahead of those conversations and explain your underwriting logic. \n\nThese are also some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy & pursue the really special deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981704081166016556","view_count":57,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761310045000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981704081166016556","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else you'll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. Those investments will stand out in your data room so you might as well get ahead of those conversations and explain your underwriting logic. \n\nThese are also some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy & pursue the really special deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981709123755610507","view_count":199549,"bookmark_count":256,"created_at":1761311248000,"favorite_count":346,"quote_count":18,"reply_count":23,"retweet_count":25,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else it’ll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. Those investments will stand out in your data room so you might as well get ahead of those conversations and explain your underwriting logic. \n\nThese are also some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy & pursue the really special deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,277],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"811350","name":"Alexis Ohanian 🗽","screen_name":"alexisohanian","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"alexisohanian","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981768701885264380","view_count":4259,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761325452000,"favorite_count":24,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@alexisohanian 100% true. I find that newer managers are more risk-averse to exceptions because they don't want to get fired by their LPs. If you study the history of venture capital, many of the best firms today became franchises in critical moments when they made exceptions.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"811350","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981767253252358505","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,286],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"69619073","name":"Andrew D'Souza","screen_name":"andrewdsouza","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"andrewdsouza","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981777971267743913","view_count":1943,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761327662000,"favorite_count":15,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@andrewdsouza Most LPAs don’t have strict parameters around valuations.\n\nThey more often have definitions around:\n\n- what % of fund can go to a single investment \n\n- recycling % \n\n- deployment period \n\nMost of the time these exceptions aren’t made because GPs are scared of being wrong.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"69619073","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981777001078788107","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,220],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1945812818932170753","name":"Neo","screen_name":"neo3141111","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"neo3141111","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981736892283469930","view_count":1741,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761317868000,"favorite_count":15,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@neo3141111 You could look at a long list of hundreds of GPs who have world class track records that have invested after the pre-seed. A very easy list of people to study would be folks like Peter Thiel, Fred Wilson, etc","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1945812818932170753","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981734983279562826","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,23],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"20397708","name":"Niki Scevak","screen_name":"nikiscevak","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"nikiscevak","lang":"fr","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981860895103025450","view_count":1021,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761347433000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@nikiscevak Raise in SF","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"20397708","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981860111879672307","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,45],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"75409972","name":"Josh Porter","screen_name":"joshdotporter","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"joshdotporter","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981818015080673366","view_count":950,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761337209000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@joshdotporter ty great seeing you this week!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"75409972","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981812251968545118","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,25],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1764321378507931648","name":"Rohan","screen_name":"proxy_vector","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"proxy_vector","lang":"ca","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981757033461481979","view_count":933,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761322670000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@proxy_vector 100 percent","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1764321378507931648","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981748076227301597","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,294],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"175934436","name":"Paul Yacoubian","screen_name":"PaulYacoubian","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"PaulYacoubian","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981706003306746307","view_count":1639,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761310504000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981704081166016556","full_text":"Ha, this is a dangerous game to play because exit value is the model input that tends to be the most hand-wavy. It's really easy to change the exit value from $10B to $20B and have your entire model look like a work of art.\n\nI find that newer investors overestimate exit value on their investment proposals, and that the model assumption is normally tied to a 1x RTF (return the fund) outcome when your winners should math out to outcomes that are far greater like 3x-5x net or above. \n\nGetting the RTF model to make sense is becoming harder to build as entry prices become higher. The math just doesn't math out most of the time. So some just change that exit value to $1T and do the deal :)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"175934436","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981704634734711025","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-26","value":0,"startTime":1761350400000,"endTime":1761436800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,132],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"6781512","name":"Martin Tobias (Pre-Seed VC)","screen_name":"MartinGTobias","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"MartinGTobias","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982144968669135150","view_count":658,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761415161000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@MartinGTobias 100%. Fully believe that an 80/20 core vs. \"breaking the rules\" barbell strategy is the best for an early-stage firm.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"6781512","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1982141432950391154","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-27","value":8,"startTime":1761436800000,"endTime":1761523200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982472740914540939","view_count":880,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1761493308000,"favorite_count":7,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982472740914540939","full_text":"One of the most common questions you’ll get when fundraising for a venture fund is about sourcing. \n\nLPs are ultimately buying into your thesis and your access, so it makes sense that sourcing is one of the first questions.\n\nThe question is hard to answer because sourcing usually comes from many different channels & almost every VC believes their approach is better than their peers’.\n\nI can’t even imagine how confusing it must be for an LP who covers venture as part of a broader portfolio to figure out what’s real and what’s not. They get pitched by hundreds of managers a year, all claiming the same “proprietary deal flow” story.\n\nSo I figured I’d write a quick note on how I think about sourcing.\n\nI like to compare sourcing to multi-channel marketing. You have multiple inputs driving top of funnel, and ideally three or four strategies that create a sourcing flywheel.\n\nIt sometimes feels like LPs are searching for a single channel they can bring to their IC and say, “Look, they have a better sourcing engine.” But relying on one channel is risky. The game changes & so do relationships and competition.\n\nSourcing is never a magic bullet. Despite the debates, I don’t believe anyone has a true proprietary sourcing advantage beyond their reputation.\n\nSpeaking of proprietary networks... \n\nI met with a well-known GP recently who is now investing in a small number of funds & he asked which proprietary networks we have access to. It was a fair question, but I pushed back bc there are no truly proprietary networks in venture anymore.\n\nTake YC, for example. Founders could easily join other accelerators or raise the traditional way, but they choose YC because they trust it will get them further, faster. That trust is the differentiator.\n\nOr look at the handful of firms that have built entire franchises by backing Elon again and again - SpaceX, Tesla, The Boring Company, etc. The sourcing channel is no secret; the access is. And that access comes from relationships earned over decades.\n\nEveryone’s searching for a sourcing “hack.” The truth is, there isn’t one. The only real proprietary network in venture is your reputation. \n\nSo when LPs ask about sourcing, I try to reframe the question. It’s not where we find companies but it’s why the best founders choose to work with us once they’re found. \n\nThat’s the real edge, and it’s built over years, not through a single channel or campaign.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982476724895113555","view_count":17942,"bookmark_count":127,"created_at":1761494258000,"favorite_count":147,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":8,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982476724895113555","full_text":"One of the most common questions you’ll get when fundraising for a venture fund is about sourcing. \n\nLPs are ultimately buying into your thesis and your access, so it makes sense that sourcing is one of the first questions.\n\nThe question is hard to answer because sourcing usually comes from many different channels & almost every VC believes their approach is better than their peers’.\n\nI can’t even imagine how confusing it must be for an LP who covers venture as part of a broader portfolio to figure out what’s real and what’s not. They get pitched by hundreds of managers a year, all claiming the same “proprietary deal flow” story.\n\nSo I figured I’d write a quick note on how I think about sourcing.\n\nI like to compare sourcing to multi-channel marketing. You have multiple inputs driving top of funnel, and ideally three or four strategies that create a sourcing flywheel.\n\nIt sometimes feels like LPs are searching for a single channel they can bring to their IC and say, “Look, they have a better sourcing engine.” But relying on one channel is risky. The game changes & so do relationships and competition.\n\nSourcing is never a magic bullet. Despite the debates, I don’t believe anyone has a true proprietary sourcing advantage beyond their reputation.\n\nSpeaking of proprietary networks... \n\nI met with a well-known GP recently who is now investing in a small number of funds & he asked which proprietary networks we have access to. It was a fair question, but I pushed back bc there are no truly proprietary networks in venture anymore.\n\nTake YC. Founders could easily join other accelerators or raise the traditional way, but they choose YC because they trust it will get them further, faster. YC doesn’t have a proprietary network - it has a brand that founders want to be associated with. They trust YC to be the best Day 1 partner to help them build something valuable.\n\nWhat’s even more interesting is what happens after YC. Because it’s such an efficient marketplace, every venture firm has access to the same company list - it’s one of the most transparent markets in venture. We all know each batch will include a handful of outliers. None of that is proprietary sourcing. The real differentiation is in how firms underwrite conviction early and actually win those deals.\n\nOr look at the handful of firms that have built entire franchises by backing Elon again and again - SpaceX, Tesla, The Boring Company, etc. The sourcing channel is no secret; the access is. And that access comes from relationships earned over decades.\n\nEveryone’s searching for a sourcing “hack.” The truth is, there isn’t one. The only real proprietary network in venture is your reputation. \n\nSo when LPs ask about sourcing, I try to reframe the question. It’s not where we find companies but it’s why the best founders choose to work with us once they’re found. \n\nThat’s the real edge, and it’s built over years, not through a single channel or campaign.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-28","value":2,"startTime":1761523200000,"endTime":1761609600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,133],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982861967221240040","view_count":417,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761586107000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982861967221240040","full_text":"Every airport lounge is like:\n\n“Our menu is thoughtfully curated by award-winning chef _______” with some random I've never heard of.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982863864191713386","view_count":3987,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761586559000,"favorite_count":21,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982863864191713386","full_text":"Every airport lounge is like:\n\n“Our menu is thoughtfully curated by award-winning chef ____” with some random I've never heard of.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-29","value":0,"startTime":1761609600000,"endTime":1761696000000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-30","value":29,"startTime":1761696000000,"endTime":1761782400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983566611404521838","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761754107000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983566611404521838","full_text":"I had a funny conversation with an LP a couple weeks back where he said, \"If I hear another venture capitalist say the words 'prepared mind' again, I will go crazy.\" \n\nThere are many terms like this that get repeated in GP land, especially during AGM season when we’re all bumping into each other often: \n\n • Thesis-driven\n • Thematic \n • Research-driven\n • Prepared mind\n • First principles\n\nThe list goes on. \n\nAs a starting point, if you're an investor, you should absolutely be all these things. \n\nYour job is to develop a point of view on the world, identify a set of problems that you think will become big markets, and find the best founders to solve those problems.\n\nThe concept of a prepared mind has mostly been co-opted for fundraising purposes in venture capital, but the concept is still important to practice and understand. \n\nAt its core, a prepared mind means that you have spent enough time in a given market to know when you meet a founder who is solving the right problem at the right time.\n\nThis is literally the job of an investor, so every single venture capitalist should have a prepared mind. \n\nAnyways, enough on this topic for now. I have a meeting with an LP, and I'm going into it with a prepared mind ;)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983567542862970996","view_count":18,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761754329000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983567542862970996","full_text":"I had a funny conversation with an LP a couple weeks back where he said, \"If I hear another venture capitalist say the words 'prepared mind' again, I will go crazy.\" \n\nThere are many terms like this that get repeated in GP land, especially during AGM season when we’re all bumping into each other often: \n\n • Thesis-driven\n • Thematic \n • Research-driven\n • Prepared mind\n • First principles\n\nThe list goes on. \n\nAs a starting point, if you're an investor, you should absolutely practice all these things, but in 99% of cases this isn’t a differentiated approach. \n\nYour job is to develop a point of view on the world, identify a set of problems that you think will become big markets, and find the best founders to solve those problems.\n\nCall it whatever you want but that’s what great investors do. \n\nThe concept of a prepared mind has mostly been co-opted for fundraising purposes in venture capital, but the concept is still important to practice and understand. \n\nAt its core, a prepared mind means that you have spent enough time in a given market to know when you meet a founder who is solving the right problem at the right time.\n\nThis is literally the job of an investor, so every single venture capitalist should have a prepared mind. \n\nAnyways, enough on this topic for now. I have a meeting with an LP, and I'm going into it with a prepared mind ;)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983568035559419942","view_count":11074,"bookmark_count":34,"created_at":1761754447000,"favorite_count":83,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":10,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983568035559419942","full_text":"I had a fun conversation with an LP a couple weeks back where he said, \"If I hear another venture capitalist say the words 'prepared mind' again, I will go crazy.\" \n\nThere are many terms like this that get repeated in GP land, especially during AGM season when we’re all bumping into each other often: \n\n • Thesis-driven\n • Thematic \n • Research-driven\n • Prepared mind\n • First principles\n\nThe list goes on. \n\nAs a starting point, if you're an investor, you should absolutely practice all these things, but in 99% of cases this isn’t a differentiated approach. \n\nBut yes, your job is to develop a point of view on the world, identify a set of problems that you think will become big markets, and find the best founders to solve those problems.\n\nCall it whatever you want but that’s what great investors do. \n\nThe concept of a prepared mind has mostly been co-opted for fundraising purposes in venture capital, but it’s still important to practice and understand. \n\nAt its core, a prepared mind means that you have spent enough time in a given market to know when you meet a founder who is solving the right problem at the right time.\n\nThis is literally the job of an investor, so every single venture capitalist should have a prepared mind. \n\nAnyways, enough on this topic for now. I have a meeting with an LP, and I'm going into it with a prepared mind ;)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,295],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983615157277487153","view_count":21522,"bookmark_count":56,"created_at":1761765681000,"favorite_count":73,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":13,"retweet_count":8,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983615157277487153","full_text":"Engagement -> Retention -> Monetization used to be the funnel of building products & companies. \n\nMonetization -> Engagement -> Retention is the order that I'm seeing founders prioritize today in the AI age.\n\nI love monetization & spent 5 years of my life waking up every day trying to increase subs/a la carte purchases while leading the revenue team at the top grossing app in the world. \n\nSo you would think I'd agree that monetization is what everybody should spend their time thinking about, but the answer is far more nuanced. \n\nWe hear the words \"Vibe Revenue\" or \"Experimental Revenue\" being thrown out a lot this year in podcasts and newsletters, and those are accurate terms to describe what so much of monetization feels like today. \n\nIn prior cycles, founders had to earn the right to focus on monetization by building a great product first. \n\nA great product can be subjective - we use the words 'taste' and 'craft' a lot, but you can also measure it by looking first at engagement & then studying retention. \n\nThe problem with focusing on monetization too early is that you create a false sense of success, especially if you haven't seen renewal cycles yet. \n\nI am guessing there is a significant percentage of new companies who stare at their engagement and retention data all day long (which might be going up & to the right) & know there are deep flaws in their product. \n\nBut they lean on monetization ($0-$10m in a year!) to make it seem like they've found product-market fit with their own teams & investors. \n\nIt's a lot of fun to make money. I had the most fun ever in my operating career leading revenue teams. It can be addicting at times. \n\nBut the only reason we became the top-grossing app in the world is because we had best-in-class engagement and retention metrics for our category. We earned the right to monetize. \n\nI hope we get back to a world where everything starts with engagement and retention. Then we can talk about revenue.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,96],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1983617932791050265","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/voxOtB2akT","expanded":"https://twitter.com/spenserskates/status/1983617932791050265","display":"x.com/spenserskates/…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983637002928189443","view_count":14244,"bookmark_count":8,"created_at":1761770890000,"favorite_count":69,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":6,"retweet_count":4,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983637002928189443","full_text":"100%. The feature-vs-company blur might be the defining question of this AI cycle for investors.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-31","value":60,"startTime":1761782400000,"endTime":1761868800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,279],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1219566488325017602","name":"Supabase","screen_name":"supabase","indices":[776,785]},{"id_str":"24486938","name":"Nikhil Basu Trivedi","screen_name":"nbt","indices":[2899,2903]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983834443648278593","view_count":148751,"bookmark_count":122,"created_at":1761817963000,"favorite_count":237,"quote_count":6,"reply_count":47,"retweet_count":13,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"I had a conversation with an investor yesterday who claimed there hasn’t been a hit consumer app in over five years.\n\nMy response: ChatGPT is a consumer app.\n\nHe pushed back saying “It started as a research lab, not a consumer company.”\n\nThat convo made me realize how broken our definition of “consumer” has become.\n\nYears ago, I invested in Superhuman after watching my friends (and my Twitter feed) rave about it nonstop. At the time, I was working at a consumer company, yet I never questioned whether Superhuman was “consumer” or not.\n\nPeople love Superhuman for both personal and work use & it’s a daily habit with engagement and retention stronger than most social apps. If that’s not consumer behavior, what is?\n\nThis might sound surprising to some, but I also viewed @supabase from a consumer lens when we invested in the pre-seed, despite it being an open source dev tool. More than the underlying technology, I was most fascinated by the bottoms up nature of how developers were adopting the database and how passionate the early community was about the product.\n\nOpen source projects arguably have stronger communities than most consumer products, and the behaviors are social by nature. They have some of most interesting network effects as every incremental developer makes the project stronger. This aligns perfectly with the classic definition of network effects. \n\nI’ve also always believed that products built by product-first founders, designed for broad, personal use should be considered consumer products. \n\nBut somewhere along the way, we invented the term prosumer, and it’s confused everyone. \n\nIt made these products sound like mini-enterprise tools, which undersells that they’re designed for mass-market behaviors wrapped in productivity.\n\nBy that logic, Superhuman, ChatGPT, Perplexity, and a growing list of “non-consumer” tools are absolutely consumer products.\n\nChatGPT alone has over 750 million weekly active users which is mainstream adoption by any definition. And as it evolves into agentic e-commerce and video gen tools like Sora, its use cases are only getting more personal.\n\nWhy does this matter?\n\nBecause category definitions drive fundraising.\n\nIf you’re a founder pitching a “consumer” product, your pool of potential investors shrinks dramatically. If you just look at how venture firms organize internally, they often literally split their teams by enterprise and consumer, which makes no sense to me. \n\nThe same goes for VCs pitching LPs where consumer is still viewed as a cyclical category. If you send a consumer venture fund deck to a large group of LPs, many categorically wouldn't take your pitch. \n\nIn reality “consumer” today looks nothing like “social, local, mobile” which is how so many people think of consumer. \n\nWork and life are blending, and the products we use every day at home & at work don’t fit cleanly into old boxes.\n\nMy friend @nbt once wrote about the consumerization of the enterprise saying:\n\n“Amazon the largest e-commerce (consumer!) company in the world, offers Amazon Web Services, the largest cloud services (enterprise!) business in the world.\n\nNVIDIA, the largest personal computer graphics (consumer!) company in the world, offers graphics processing units (GPUs) for artificial intelligence applications (enterprise!), and has seen its market cap grow 20X in the past decade since this dual focus.”\n\nThe next generation of breakout apps won’t be defined by where they’re used, but by how deeply they integrate into daily life.\n\nWe’re in the golden age of consumer products. 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I was still new at the company and trying to make a name for myself, so I showed up on December 22nd with just a few others.\n\n“Who’s that guy in the tracksuit?” one of our youngest engineers asked, looking up from his monitor.\n\nI glanced over and saw Barry Diller, owner of IAC and one of Tinder’s biggest shareholders.\n\nI didn’t know it at the time, but Barry (then 75 years old) had a tradition of visiting the Tinder office right before Christmas every year. He’d walk the floor asking questions, genuinely curious about what everyone was building.\n\nI watched him approach one of our engineers and ask, “What are you working on?”\n\nThe engineer started explaining what he was doing in very technical terms, and Barry listened without interrupting. I don’t think the engineer knew who he was because if he did, I’m pretty sure he would’ve been a lot more nervous explaining his code!\n\nA year later, in 2016, I made sure to be in the office those same few days before Christmas. The office was mostly empty again and we had just moved into a much larger space.\n\nSure enough, the guy in the tracksuit showed up again, right on cue. Barry Diller.\n\nHe made his rounds, saying hello and asking the few of us still in the office the same question: “What are you working on?”\n\nOne of the central themes of \"Who Knew\" and of Barry’s career is his obsession with understanding how things work at the most fundamental level:\n\n\"Only if I slowed everything down could I begin to understand all the parts and then try to rearrange them into something coherent. I tend to make things worse in the beginning as I fumble around trying to get to basic truths. Instinct, which I prize almost all else, doesn’t work very well for me in abstruse matters.\n\nI have to get to the core DNA on any matter, its logical essence, before I can add anything of value. This takes a lot of time, often to the irritation of faster thinkers, but when it does crystallize, I can’t be deterred.\n\nI listen with an extra ear, highly attuned to hear a new truth among the cacophony of voices in the room. When I catch that note, no matter what I might have thought before, I’ll change course in a second.\n\nIf I’ve ever had any kind of secret sauce, it’s the ability to hear conflicting, creative ideas bombarded around the room and extract something valuable.\n\nRecently in a meeting, someone complained that I wasn’t being consistent. I replied that I’m never consistent; I’ll turn on a dime if I hear a better truth.” \n- (Barry Diller, Who Knew)\n\nLooking back, I realize that when he asked what we were building, it wasn’t about oversight or management control. It was pure curiosity.\n\nMost leaders want to look smart. Barry wanted to get smart and understand the smallest molecule of what we were building, even on the sleepy days before Christmas.\n\nThe best investors and leaders don’t chase outcomes. They want to understand the wiring underneath.\n\nShow up, ask questions & keep asking until it makes sense. The tracksuit is optional.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[11,161],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"441679284","name":"brett goldstein","screen_name":"thatguybg","indices":[0,10]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"thatguybg","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983843170493382696","view_count":778,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761820044000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@thatguybg Most consumer apps have evolved their business models to subscriptions (same as bottoms up enterprise) and most have tiered pricing at this point too.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"441679284","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983842584788398438","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,293],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"13955342","name":"Trace Vertical Ai Cohen","screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983868789059154119","view_count":518,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761826152000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@Trace_Cohen 100%. On Supabase, they had a cultish community who loved the product before the pre-seed.\n\nAs an investor who does enterprise & consumer like myself, it was helpful to underwrite through a consumer lens.\n\nNow it's a mass market developer product selling to large enterprises.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"13955342","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983867417655750680","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[11,110],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1979921","name":"Josh Elman","screen_name":"joshelman","indices":[0,10]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"joshelman","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983892716288405682","view_count":930,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761831857000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@joshelman 100%. Also fwiw I think Josh Elman is invested in almost all the best consumer apps of his vintage!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1979921","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983892303245885616","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,85],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"35647451","name":"Turner Novak 🍌🧢","screen_name":"TurnerNovak","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"TurnerNovak","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983927717734047759","view_count":667,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761840202000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@TurnerNovak Haha! This was before i got pitched because someone thought I was an LP.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"35647451","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983926158862262518","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,43],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1054947848","name":"Nicole Priel","screen_name":"smallbigtalk","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"smallbigtalk","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983846327105544322","view_count":212,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761820797000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@smallbigtalk would love to read the thesis","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1054947848","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983846102391791901","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,269],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"3014388155","name":"Jeddi","screen_name":"antinertia","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"antinertia","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983857862607827087","view_count":232,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761823547000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@antinertia Prosumer is what they’ve called it historically but those companies tend to get discounted in fundraising from what I’ve seen.\n\nProbably because investors view them as being “in between” both markets. \n\nSo I don’t advise calling yourself a prosumer company.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"3014388155","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983857075298943121","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,32],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"41771957","name":"Ryan Morris","screen_name":"RyanMorris55","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"RyanMorris55","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983893392791925073","view_count":161,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761832018000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@RyanMorris55 Thank you brother!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"41771957","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983893276349415508","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,179],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"2363641","name":"jason yeh","screen_name":"jasonoliver","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"jasonoliver","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983952515470352895","view_count":431,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761846114000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@jasonoliver 100%. And shopping is coming fast with agentic e-commerce. ChatGPT (and its competitors) will end up owning dominant market share across multiple consumer categories.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"2363641","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983951551866831342","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[9,227],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"150388200","name":"Warren Shaeffer","screen_name":"wwshaef","indices":[0,8]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"wwshaef","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983946533159772285","view_count":272,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761844688000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@wwshaef I agree with your definition. Simple is very useful. \n\nMost bottoms-up software has consumer overlap. \n\nProductivity Software is a decent label but tends to devalue companies because there haven’t been many huge exits.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"150388200","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983945638405611746","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-01","value":1,"startTime":1761868800000,"endTime":1761955200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,124],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"39191312","name":"Kirsten Green","screen_name":"kirstenagreen","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"kirstenagreen","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1984113931565330944","view_count":863,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761884598000,"favorite_count":7,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1984107536052842496","full_text":"@kirstenagreen “ChatGPT wasn’t necessarily designed as a consumer product, but consumers claimed it anyway.”\n\nExactly right.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"39191312","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1984107536052842496","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[7,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"22961818","name":"Todd Jackson","screen_name":"tjack","indices":[0,6]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"tjack","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1984358200276382017","view_count":247,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761942837000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@tjack That's a great list, and 100% agree.\n\nConsumer gets anchored on social and things like DTC which is an outdated definition.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"22961818","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1984344313393004585","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-02","value":9,"startTime":1761955200000,"endTime":1762041600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/cf2xeuTten","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1984669264100618636/photo/1","id_str":"1984666463513559043","indices":[277,300],"media_key":"3_1984666463513559043","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4rzoiNbQAMI02X.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/cf2xeuTten","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1067,"w":1600,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":800,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":453,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":1067,"width":1600,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":72,"w":1600,"h":896},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1067,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":936,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":534,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1600,"h":1067}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1984666463513559043"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1718560501825933312","name":"Discipulus Ventures","screen_name":"DiscipulusVent","indices":[38,53]},{"id_str":"1213544133878370304","name":"Jakob Diepenbrock","screen_name":"jakobdiepen","indices":[73,85]},{"id_str":"1718560501825933312","name":"Discipulus Ventures","screen_name":"DiscipulusVent","indices":[38,53]},{"id_str":"1213544133878370304","name":"Jakob Diepenbrock","screen_name":"jakobdiepen","indices":[73,85]},{"id_str":"1333613797907582976","name":"Augustus Doricko","screen_name":"ADoricko","indices":[519,528]},{"id_str":"1716643091137056768","name":"Rainmaker Technology Corporation","screen_name":"RainmakerCorp","indices":[534,548]},{"id_str":"1152136922694766593","name":"Ted Feldmann","screen_name":"teddyfeld","indices":[550,560]},{"id_str":"1843811438332391427","name":"Durin","screen_name":"DurinMining","indices":[566,578]},{"id_str":"1435266698701991936","name":"Isaiah Taylor - 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But when I walked through the doors, I realized it wasn’t just a Bay Area thing. The room was packed with investors from all over the country who’d made the same trip. Clearly, something real is happening here.\n\nThe day started with a panel with @ADoricko from @RainmakerCorp, @teddyfeld from @DurinMining (Ch. 1 portfolio company), and @isaiah_p_taylor from @valaratomics along with @jakobdiepen - who gave a quick history lesson on El Segundo’s roots.\n\nBefore World War II, this city was home to Douglas Aircraft, builder of the SBD Dauntless dive bomber and a symbol of American industrial strength. It’s no accident that so many “America First” companies are being built here again. Founders in El Segundo are carrying that legacy forward.\n\nThey showed a map of the current startup ecosystem, which is 55+ companies, and most of them have come into existence since 2023. \n\nI know 55 companies doesn't sound like a huge number, but as you think about the venture capital interest and momentum that El Segundo has, it's easy to imagine that number becoming 100’s and 1000’s in years to come in the city and surrounding areas. \n\nOne of the other most interesting messages was how El Segundo is evolving from being a bit of a meme (which was very intentional to get people to pay attention) to now deploying products in the physical world. \n\nAugustus from Rainmaker had just gotten back from a trip to Oregon where they deployed rain the prior day (I believe he said the cloud seeding operation was 100m+ gallons). \n\nTed from Durin had recently successfully completed his first drilling operation in Nevada. Both companies have done so on modest budgets, and the founders challenged the idea that hard tech is as capital-intensive as most venture capitalists think. \n\nThe demo day featured ten companies spanning a wide range of sectors, all united around one core theme: strengthening America.\n\nThese founders are tackling hard, meaningful problems in areas like energy, autonomous manufacturing, commodity trading, heavy equipment procurement, autonomous farming, and oil and gas.\n\nIt’s worth noting that many of the companies aren’t pure hardware plays. Some are software-first, and others are software-enabled hardware, which, frankly, is what all hardware is becoming.\n\nMy takeaway is that there doesn’t need to be such a hard divide between hardware and software investors. These worlds are starting to blend, and I expect that collaboration to accelerate over the next few years.\n\nWhat’s clear is that El Segundo is here to stay & that @DiscipulusVent is building something special (I’m a proud LP in the fund). The founders here are working on serious problems, and the momentum is real. I’d bet the next demo day will draw an even bigger crowd of investors from across the country.\n\nVery bullish on El Segundo & the next chapter for LA tech.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-03","value":6,"startTime":1762041600000,"endTime":1762128000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,277],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1984846679720542704","view_count":2379,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1762059299000,"favorite_count":21,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":6,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1984846679720542704","full_text":"I grew up in the Bay Area as a Giants fan, but now live in Los Angeles and goes without saying, this city earned a championship this year. Congratulations to the Dodgers.\n\nFor anyone who’s been here, 2025 has been a brutal year for Los Angeles. The January 7th fires marked the start of years of loss and rebuilding. Tonight’s win gives people here something to rally around, something that actually feels good again.\n\nSports have a way of healing pain and heartbreak. Being in L.A. tonight feels like the city finally got a moment of relief.\n\nCongratulations to the Dodgers and to Los Angeles.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-04","value":0,"startTime":1762128000000,"endTime":1762214400000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-05","value":5,"startTime":1762214400000,"endTime":1762300800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,54],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1985639448785174836","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/8rm1V9sGlK","expanded":"https://twitter.com/uialexk/status/1985639448785174836","display":"x.com/uialexk/status…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1985707818230452710","view_count":9198,"bookmark_count":5,"created_at":1762264611000,"favorite_count":26,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1985707818230452710","full_text":"We have entered the large narrow sans serif slop phase","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,291],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1457278696931405828","name":"rosie (🔟/🔟)","screen_name":"therosieum","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"therosieum","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1985840026744189139","view_count":22,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762296132000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1984987750647333350","full_text":"This was a great post.\n\n“The problem is, you can’t build anything meaningful in 18 months. Real infrastructure takes at least 3–5 years. Real product-market fit requires iteration over years, not quarters.”\n\nThat said, I actually think those timelines are compressing.\n\nInfra can now be built in 1–2 years, and PMF can happen in weeks or months for strong applications.\n\nWe just need more original ideas - not the 75th prediction market.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1457278696931405828","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1984987750647333350","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-06","value":0,"startTime":1762300800000,"endTime":1762387200000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-07","value":7,"startTime":1762387200000,"endTime":1762473600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,134],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"768929915844513792","name":"Jamesin Seidel","screen_name":"seidtweets","indices":[123,134]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1986437434213544227","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/XjktPxYNjP","expanded":"https://twitter.com/viraj__acharya/status/1986437434213544227","display":"x.com/viraj__acharya…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986494295663386907","view_count":4971,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762452122000,"favorite_count":9,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986494295663386907","full_text":"Jamesin killed it as always.\n\nThe best venture firms earn the right to be “partners” & not just investors. \n\nWell done @seidtweets","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"44196397","name":"Elon Musk","screen_name":"elonmusk","indices":[64,73]},{"id_str":"44196397","name":"Elon Musk","screen_name":"elonmusk","indices":[64,73]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986557513740001382","view_count":3764,"bookmark_count":4,"created_at":1762467194000,"favorite_count":18,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986557513740001382","full_text":"Tesla AGM right now is all about the robots 🤖\nA few quotes from @elonmusk:\n\nOn scale:\n“Optimus is going to be the biggest product of all time. Bigger than cell phones. Bigger than anything else.”\n\nOn use cases:\n“There will be 3–5 industrial robots for every personal robot.”\n\nOn speed:\n“We’re going to launch the fastest production ramp of any large manufactured product, starting with a million-unit per year production line in Fremont.”\n\nRobots aren’t coming. They’re already here.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-08","value":17,"startTime":1762473600000,"endTime":1762560000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986839703291896042","view_count":9,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762534473000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986839703291896042","full_text":"The “hype video” startup trend will fade, just like every other form of attention arbitrage.\n\nI say that as someone who actually went to film school and loves video. But we’ve reached the point where agencies are producing hype videos for fundraising rounds just to trigger VC FOMO.\n\nVirality has never been easier to manufacture, or shorter-lived.\n\nSpending $25K on a product video might make sense from a valuation or dilution standpoint. But is that really the culture you want to build?\n\nAnd when the investors who FOMO’d into your round realize the growth story doesn’t hold up, how do you think that plays out?\n\nBuild great products. The hype video era is already getting stale.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986841507282964826","view_count":113,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1762534903000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986841507282964826","full_text":"The “hype video” startup trend will fade, just like every other form of attention arbitrage.\n\nI say that as someone who actually went to film school and loves video. But we’ve reached the point where agencies are producing hype videos for fundraising rounds just to trigger VC fomo. \n\nIt’s now part of the fundraising playbook:\n\nMake a pitch deck. Make a hype video. Go a little bit viral. Rinse and repeat.\n\nVirality has never been easier to manufacture, but it’s also never been shorter-lived.\n\nSpending $25K on a product video might make sense from a valuation or dilution standpoint. But is that really the culture you want to build?\n\nAnd when the investors who FOMO’d into your round realize the growth story doesn’t hold up, how do you think that plays out?\n\nBuild great products that solve real problems. The hype video era is already stale.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,275],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986848712908546121","view_count":18228,"bookmark_count":32,"created_at":1762536621000,"favorite_count":92,"quote_count":7,"reply_count":13,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986848712908546121","full_text":"The “hype video” startup trend will fade, just like every other form of attention arbitrage.\n\nI say that as someone who actually went to film school and loves video. But we’ve reached the point where agencies are producing hype videos for fundraising rounds just to create VC fomo. \n\nIt’s now part of the fundraising playbook:\n\nMake a pitch deck. Make a hype video. Go a little bit viral. Rinse & repeat.\n\nVirality has never been easier to manufacture, but it’s also never been shorter-lived. The investors you actually want around for the next decade can tell the difference.\n\nSpending $25K on a product video might make sense from a valuation or dilution standpoint. But is that really the culture you want to build?\n\nAnd when the investors who FOMO’d into your round realize the growth story doesn’t hold up, how do you think that plays out?\n\nBuild great products that solve real problems. The hype video era is already stale.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,215],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986892752286883962","view_count":3190,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1762547121000,"favorite_count":18,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986892752286883962","full_text":"The most important part of “staying in crypto” as an early stage investor is being completely unemotional about the markets.\n\nI feel nothing when our crypto book swings 20–30%.\n\nMaybe that’s unhealthy. But it works.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-09","value":35,"startTime":1762560000000,"endTime":1762646400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,234],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"787810160513200129","name":"Chapter One","screen_name":"chapterone","indices":[50,61]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986969884362940562","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762565511000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986969884362940562","full_text":"Yesterday we locked in two deals that will define @chapterone’s next chapter.\n\nOne: an incubation with a major IP partner (a year in the making).\n\nTwo: a product we’ll launch publicly soon with a major tech platform. \n\nAlways cooking.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,239],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"787810160513200129","name":"Chapter One","screen_name":"chapterone","indices":[50,61]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986970650532327456","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762565693000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986970650532327456","full_text":"Yesterday we locked in two deals that will define @chapterone’s next chapter.\n\nOne: an incubation with a major IP partner (a year in the making).\n\nTwo: a product we’ll launch publicly soon with a well known tech platform. \n\nAlways cooking.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,232],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"787810160513200129","name":"Chapter One","screen_name":"chapterone","indices":[50,61]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986970741779407185","view_count":6055,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1762565715000,"favorite_count":48,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986970741779407185","full_text":"Yesterday we locked in two deals that will define @chapterone’s next chapter.\n\nOne: an incubation with a major IP partner (a year in the making).\n\nTwo: a product we’ll launch publicly soon with a big tech platform. \n\nAlways cooking.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,281],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987236350836494777","view_count":164696,"bookmark_count":200,"created_at":1762629041000,"favorite_count":476,"quote_count":11,"reply_count":30,"retweet_count":21,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1987236350836494777","full_text":"Startup beef is always funny.\n\nYears ago, I worked at a marketplace & we decided Craigslist was our enemy. We built narratives around “beating” them, studied their every move, and even shaped internal goals around taking their users. I’m pretty sure they never thought about us once.\n\nLater, we shifted our obsession to TaskRabbit. Remember Taskrabbit? We spent so much energy trying to outdo them w/ pricing wars, feature debates, endless comparisons. But in the end, neither of us became a breakout, venture-scale success.\n\nThe real competitors were the ones playing a much bigger game: DoorDash, Instacart, Uber. We knew those founders personally, hung out with them at the same SF parties, but never saw them as direct competition. Turns out, they were just playing a different sport entirely.\n\nI see the same thing today in AI and crypto. Startups beefing over tiny overlaps, chasing small wins. Before you pick a fight, make sure you’re actually in a market worth winning. \n\nOtherwise, you’ll wake up every morning obsessed with a game that doesn’t matter.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,54],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"954060455831580672","name":"Molly O’Shea","screen_name":"MollySOShea","indices":[0,12]},{"id_str":"768929915844513792","name":"Jamesin Seidel","screen_name":"seidtweets","indices":[21,32]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"MollySOShea","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987168354260689078","view_count":85,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762612830000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986824069094822264","full_text":"@MollySOShea Talk to @seidtweets - she will have ideas","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"954060455831580672","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1986824069094822264","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,107],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"21706010","name":"Daniel Pearson","screen_name":"danielpearson","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"danielpearson","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987239060021387360","view_count":5021,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762629687000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1987236350836494777","full_text":"@danielpearson Love that Peter Thiel quote and very true.\n\nIf only we had venture funds at that point haha.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"21706010","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987237809229599115","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-10","value":0,"startTime":1762646400000,"endTime":1762732800000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-11","value":0,"startTime":1762732800000,"endTime":1762819200000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-12","value":0,"startTime":1762819200000,"endTime":1762905600000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-13","value":0,"startTime":1762905600000,"endTime":1762992000000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-14","value":19,"startTime":1762992000000,"endTime":1763078400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"4188045073","name":"Jordi Hays","screen_name":"jordihays","indices":[828,838]},{"id_str":"30736937","name":"John Coogan","screen_name":"johncoogan","indices":[841,852]},{"id_str":"1838288550569349120","name":"TBPN","screen_name":"tbpn","indices":[856,861]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988981359013163127","view_count":63,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763045084000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988981359013163127","full_text":"Venture Capital Musical Chairs\n\nWhen I first got into venture capital, I assumed that General Partners stayed at firms for most of their careers. From the outside, venture capital shops looked like stable institutions. At the very least, they felt more permanent than the startups they backed.\n\nThat assumption was dead wrong.\n\nBack then, I was at Tinder and a scout for Index Ventures. It was an awesome experience, but I definitely underestimated how turbulent things can be inside other venture firms I was co-investing with and getting to know more closely.\n\nThat turbulence has only accelerated in the last few years. Every week, I see partners leaving, firms reshaping their strategies, and LP relationships shifting. \n\nIt feels like watching ESPN at this point waiting for Shams to break some trade news. Luckily we have @jordihays & @johncoogan at @tbpn.\n\nFor founders, venture capital musical chairs feels like something happening on the other side of the table. You sense the industry shifting, but you’re busy building your company. Whatever chaos is unfolding inside venture firms isn’t exactly top of mind.\n\nBut you should be thinking about it a lot more. And here's why. \n\nWhen you raise from a venture firm, you don’t really raise from the firm. You raise from a specific partner. You take their calls, you trust their judgment, and you build your relationship around them. They’re the one who sits on your board, texts you late at night, and ideally, fights for you when things get tough. \n\nWhen they leave, you lose that advocate. Suddenly, the person who cared most about your survival inside the partnership is gone.\n\nIn today’s venture world, that partner may not even be around by the time your next fundraise rolls around. \n\nI was talking to a former partner at a multi-stage fund yesterday, and she told me that the average partner at a venture firm sticks around for 7 years. And when they leave, the implications for you are important to understand.\n\nWhat often happens next is that you become an “adopted company.” Other partners don’t rush to claim you, because supporting you doesn’t count toward their scoreboard. Venture is a business built on attribution, and if they didn’t source or lead your deal, the incentive to spend time helping you is low. You end up feeling like the kid at the dinner table nobody wants to introduce.\n\nBoard dynamics only make the problem worse. If your original partner leaves, their seat might be reassigned to someone who barely knows your business, or worse, someone who doesn’t care to. \n\nNow you’re wasting cycles re-educating a new person who has little emotional or financial attachment to your success. Instead of focusing on building, you’re back at square one, explaining the basics to someone who isn’t invested in your story.\n\nAnd then there’s the signaling risk. Other investors notice when your champion departs their firm. LPs notice too. Even if your company is performing well, your life will change.\n\n“Is the firm still supporting you?” You’ll get asked this question dozens of times by other investors, potential hires, and media. You can explain this pretty easily, but it’s just one of those annoying questions that you’ll have to talk about for many years to come.\n\nThis isn’t meant to be morbid. It’s a reminder to choose your partners carefully and understand their career trajectory and standing inside the firm.\n\nFundraising is chaotic right now. Bubble or not, founders and investors are speed-dating their way into big rounds, and everyone’s expected to build trust on a timeline that would be insane in any normal business relationship.\n\nMy best advice is don’t assume the partner you pick will be there forever. Get to know the rest of the partnership, understand how they think, and make sure you actually believe in the firm’s culture and ethos.\n\nA friend put it well yesterday: the only person who’s almost certainly sticking around is the founder of the firm. That’s the longest term partner you're getting into business with. You may not get much access to the founder(s) of a firm, but it’s still worth knowing their story, their reputation, and how they’ve shown up for founders over time.\n\nIf your deal sponsor is gone in a few years, would you still be proud to call that firm your investor? \n\nIf the answer is yes, great, but make sure you’re diligencing them as hard as they’re diligencing you.\n\nVenture Capital Musical Chairs isn’t stopping anytime soon. If anything, it will get much spicier as we understand which partners took massive AI swings that will generate many billions for their firms, or leave their firms holding the bag.\n\nIn either case, your partner still might leave. \n\nInvestors who crushed this AI wave might use that momentum to spin out and start their own firms. And the ones who didn’t get big wins in this cycle might be looking for new jobs soon for reasons we all understand.\n\nAs a founder, choose your partners carefully and make damn sure you’re not the last one left standing when the music stops. \n\nFin.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"4188045073","name":"Jordi Hays","screen_name":"jordihays","indices":[859,869]},{"id_str":"30736937","name":"John Coogan","screen_name":"johncoogan","indices":[872,883]},{"id_str":"1838288550569349120","name":"TBPN","screen_name":"tbpn","indices":[887,892]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988983199872004228","view_count":66136,"bookmark_count":126,"created_at":1763045523000,"favorite_count":165,"quote_count":6,"reply_count":19,"retweet_count":23,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"Venture Capital Musical Chairs (And Why Founders Should Care)\n\nWhen I first got into venture capital, I assumed that General Partners stayed at firms for most of their careers. From the outside, venture capital shops looked like stable institutions. At the very least, they felt more permanent than the startups they backed.\n\nThat assumption was dead wrong.\n\nBack then, I was at Tinder and a scout for Index Ventures. It was an awesome experience, but I definitely underestimated how turbulent things can be inside other venture firms I was co-investing with and getting to know more closely.\n\nThat turbulence has only accelerated in the last few years. Every week, I see partners leaving, firms reshaping their strategies, and LP relationships shifting. \n\nIt feels like watching ESPN at this point waiting for Shams to break some trade news. Luckily we have @jordihays & @johncoogan at @tbpn.\n\nFor founders, venture capital musical chairs feels like something happening on the other side of the table. You sense the industry shifting, but you’re busy building your company. Whatever chaos is unfolding inside venture firms isn’t exactly top of mind.\n\nBut you should be thinking about it a lot more. And here's why. \n\nWhen you raise from a venture firm, you don’t really raise from the firm. You raise from a specific partner. You take their calls, you trust their judgment, and you build your relationship around them. They’re the one who sits on your board, texts you late at night, and ideally, fights for you when things get tough. \n\nWhen they leave, you lose that advocate. Suddenly, the person who cared most about your survival inside the partnership is gone.\n\nIn today’s venture world, that partner may not even be around by the time your next fundraise rolls around. \n\nI was talking to a former partner at a multi-stage fund yesterday, and she told me that the average partner at a venture firm sticks around for 7 years. And when they leave, the implications for you are important to understand.\n\nWhat often happens next is that you become an “adopted company.” Other partners don’t rush to claim you, because supporting you doesn’t count toward their scoreboard. Venture is a business built on attribution, and if they didn’t source or lead your deal, the incentive to spend time helping you is low.\n\nBoard dynamics only make the problem worse. If your original partner leaves, their seat might be reassigned to someone who barely knows your business, or worse, someone who doesn’t care to. \n\nNow you’re wasting cycles re-educating a new person who has little emotional or financial attachment to your success. Instead of focusing on building, you’re back at square one, explaining the basics to someone who isn’t invested in your story.\n\nAnd then there’s the signaling risk. Other investors notice when your champion departs their firm. LPs notice too. Even if your company is performing well, your life will change.\n\n“Is the firm still supporting you?” You’ll get asked this question dozens of times by other investors, potential hires, and media. You can explain this pretty easily, but it’s just one of those annoying questions that you’ll have to talk about for many years to come.\n\nThis isn’t meant to be morbid. It’s a reminder to choose your partners carefully and understand their career trajectory and standing inside the firm.\n\nFundraising is chaotic right now. Bubble or not, founders and investors are speed-dating their way into big rounds, and everyone’s expected to build trust on a timeline that would be insane in any normal business relationship.\n\nMy best advice is don’t assume the partner you pick will be there forever. Get to know the rest of the partnership, understand how they think, and make sure you actually believe in the firm’s culture and ethos.\n\nA friend put it well yesterday: the only person who’s almost certainly sticking around is the founder of the firm. That’s the longest term partner you're getting into business with. You may not get much access to the founder(s) of a firm, but it’s still worth knowing their story, their reputation, and how they’ve shown up for founders over time.\n\nVenture Capital Musical Chairs isn’t stopping anytime soon. If anything, it will get much spicier as we understand which partners took massive AI swings that will generate many billions for their firms, or leave their firms holding the bag.\n\nIn either case, your partner still might leave. \n\nInvestors who crushed this AI wave might use that momentum to spin out and start their own firms. And the ones who didn’t get big wins in this cycle might be looking for new jobs soon for reasons we all understand.\n\nAs a founder, choose your partners carefully and make damn sure you’re not the last one left standing when the music stops. \n\nFin.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,75],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"35647451","name":"Turner Novak 🍌🧢","screen_name":"TurnerNovak","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"TurnerNovak","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988990321540399109","view_count":1308,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763047220000,"favorite_count":4,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"@TurnerNovak Very effective Sparknotes version - I need you to be my editor","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"35647451","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1988989896195756499","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-15","value":31,"startTime":1763078400000,"endTime":1763164800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,87],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1989156238018683215","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/Ssm5bH6JtM","expanded":"https://twitter.com/rohanpaul_ai/status/1989156238018683215","display":"x.com/rohanpaul_ai/s…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989213951863955480","view_count":2628,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1763100538000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989213951863955480","full_text":"Solana FDV: $80B (feels cheap)\nA 1-year-old AI startup: $50B\n\nWelcome to pure-vibes VC.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,121],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rsKQuQih8o","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1989184813312680086/photo/1","id_str":"1989184305332174848","indices":[122,145],"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5sAligbQAAxQo3.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rsKQuQih8o","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":977,"y":403,"h":520,"w":520},{"x":1347,"y":59,"h":635,"w":635},{"x":507,"y":376,"h":589,"w":589}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":572,"y":236,"h":304,"w":304},{"x":789,"y":35,"h":372,"w":372},{"x":297,"y":220,"h":345,"w":345}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":324,"y":134,"h":172,"w":172},{"x":447,"y":19,"h":211,"w":211},{"x":168,"y":124,"h":195,"w":195}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":1833,"y":757,"h":975,"w":975},{"x":2527,"y":112,"h":1192,"w":1192},{"x":952,"y":705,"h":1106,"w":1106}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1152,"w":2048,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":675,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":2160,"width":3840,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":10,"w":3840,"h":2150},{"x":552,"y":0,"w":2160,"h":2160},{"x":685,"y":0,"w":1895,"h":2160},{"x":1092,"y":0,"w":1080,"h":2160},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":3840,"h":2160}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[{"display_url":"x.com/OpenAI/status/…","expanded_url":"https://x.com/OpenAI/status/1989138776585851038","url":"https://t.co/5gFtHQYNiu","indices":[98,121]}],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rsKQuQih8o","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1989184813312680086/photo/1","id_str":"1989184305332174848","indices":[122,145],"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5sAligbQAAxQo3.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rsKQuQih8o","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":977,"y":403,"h":520,"w":520},{"x":1347,"y":59,"h":635,"w":635},{"x":507,"y":376,"h":589,"w":589}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":572,"y":236,"h":304,"w":304},{"x":789,"y":35,"h":372,"w":372},{"x":297,"y":220,"h":345,"w":345}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":324,"y":134,"h":172,"w":172},{"x":447,"y":19,"h":211,"w":211},{"x":168,"y":124,"h":195,"w":195}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":1833,"y":757,"h":975,"w":975},{"x":2527,"y":112,"h":1192,"w":1192},{"x":952,"y":705,"h":1106,"w":1106}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1152,"w":2048,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":675,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":2160,"width":3840,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":10,"w":3840,"h":2150},{"x":552,"y":0,"w":2160,"h":2160},{"x":685,"y":0,"w":1895,"h":2160},{"x":1092,"y":0,"w":1080,"h":2160},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":3840,"h":2160}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"quoted_status_id_str":"1983834443648278593","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/t56Kl9NM7f","expanded":"https://twitter.com/jmj/status/1983834443648278593","display":"x.com/jmj/status/198…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989184813312680086","view_count":19239,"bookmark_count":23,"created_at":1763093591000,"favorite_count":52,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989184813312680086","full_text":"ChatGPT now has group chats.\n\nCongrats to the newest social network on the internet. Case closed.\nhttps://t.co/5gFtHQYNiu https://t.co/rsKQuQih8o","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,282],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989423657438121993","view_count":21867,"bookmark_count":60,"created_at":1763150536000,"favorite_count":102,"quote_count":5,"reply_count":24,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"Vibe Investing Is the New Vibe Coding\n\nThe institutional memory of what happened in 2020–2022 is basically gone. It’s wild how quickly we as an industry forgot.\n\nI have a theory that our brains now process trauma & even financial bubbles in smaller and smaller increments. We’re living through the compression of emotional memory. Our tech industry systems take in stimuli that are too frequent, too loud, and too fast, so nothing sticks. \n\nI dug into my theory more (which you’ve likely felt intuitively but maybe haven’t articulated) and it turns out there’s actually a concept called “emotional amnesia\" which is a feeling numb or disconnected about what is happening around you.\n\nI won’t bore you with the academic details, but my takeaway as applied to venture capital is that the half-life on lessons learned (and in most businesses) is collapsing at the same pace you scroll a TikTok feed. We breeze past a $3B seed round at a $30B valuation like it’s a TMZ clip. \n\nAs a first-time manager who launched a fund in 2019, the 2020–2022 bubble left a permanent imprint on me. I’ll never forget what that period felt like. \n\nThe velocity, FOMO & the total detachment from fundamentals was intoxicating for everyone. Your seed check jumps from a $10M post to a $150M post in 30 days. Congrats… I guess? Because now you have to decide whether to follow on. And it’s a tier-one lead. What do you do?\n\nThat environment pushed every firm, including the great ones, into some objectively terrible decisions.\n\nAnd when I look at venture today, the industry barely resembles what it was even six years ago. We used to joke about “vibe investing” as the exception. The charismatic founder with cult-leader energy, the weird but magnetic pitch, the occasional “let’s take a flyer and see what happens.” Now it’s the norm. \n\nAura and an AI narrative = 10 term sheets.\n\nThere are insanely talented, credible operators building world-changing companies. But a $50B valuation for a pre-product seed round? Is that even venture capital? Call it whatever you want (and honestly we probably need a new category name) because it’s a completely different industry at this point.\n\nThe biggest takeaway is that at almost every stage from seed, growth, crossover, even public markets, we’re operating on vibes. Maybe I’m slowly becoming a boomer for even saying this.\n\nBut it's narrative over numbers, momentum over diligence, social proof over actual proof.\n\nCritics dunk on “vibe coding” as a Gen Z builder phenomenon that creates technical slop, but venture capital has built its own version: vibe investing.\n\nDrop a pitch deck into ChatGPT, run a Deep Research query, and boom “I don’t even need analysts anymore!” You skim the output in five minutes between pitch calls and try to stitch together a market thesis. Meanwhile the founder is a fundraising machine and every other firm is running the exact same Deep Research report you are.\n\nYou better move fast.\n\nSo you hop into Granola, grab one smart-sounding insight from your call, and paste it into Slack like you discovered fire. Your partners light up. Then you mention the founder already has multiple term sheets and suddenly everyone’s ready to clear their calendars.\n\nWe won’t know what turns into investment slop for a few years, but vibe-driven deals are definitely going to push that percentage way up. \n\nMaybe that’s fine & maybe this time really is different, and the outliers will paper over all the vibe-investing slop. But if you’re an emerging manager or running a concentrated portfolio, that’s a dangerous way to live. You don’t get to spray-and-pray your way out of vibes.\n\nRight now the vibes are insanely strong. It’s exciting. I feel just as fired up as everyone else and that energy is exactly why venture and technology keep marching forward.\n\nBut if I had one message today it would be this. \n\nGOOD LUCK AVOIDING THE SLOP.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,14],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"25232333","name":"Pat McGovern","screen_name":"pw_mcgovern","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"pw_mcgovern","lang":"qme","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989437186396332277","view_count":90,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763153761000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@pw_mcgovern 🔥","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"25232333","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989435465892606039","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,47],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"180030016","name":"davidfeiock","screen_name":"davidfeiock","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"davidfeiock","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989439081856864670","view_count":95,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763154213000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@davidfeiock Doing my best to please the people","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"180030016","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989438684970840404","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[16,33],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"90144647","name":"Viraj Acharya","screen_name":"Viraj__Acharya","indices":[0,15]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Viraj__Acharya","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989474730047672821","view_count":55,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763162712000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@Viraj__Acharya Haha yes happy to","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"90144647","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989469687676350678","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,283],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"729253848787738624","name":"george beall","screen_name":"GeorgePBeall","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"GeorgePBeall","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989425758935363750","view_count":254,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763151037000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@GeorgePBeall There will be a mean reversion as DPI gets realized. There is a category land grab right now, and the opportunity is massive, so capital is piling in. Long-term bullish on AI, but at some point, early stage investors will need to get back to some version of discipline.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"729253848787738624","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989425239139520664","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,292],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"13955342","name":"Trace Vertical Ai Cohen","screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989438237971300635","view_count":292,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1763154012000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"Agreed. I think the biggest mistake people will make is not knowing what game they're playing. An emerging manager with a smaller fund trying to execute on the multi-stage strategy is problematic. You have windows of opportunity where you can do things that are outside your core strategy, and putting guard rails on that bucket is hugely important. It's also really easy to let the guard rails down.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"13955342","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989437434082595107","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[11,103],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"192784466","name":"Jeff Richards","screen_name":"jrichlive","indices":[0,10]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"jrichlive","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989351865327472987","view_count":302,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763133419000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"@jrichlive Wild - will check back on this tweet in a few years so you can tell me about the 4th and 5th","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"192784466","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989350740587077902","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,37],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1449604717038825477","name":"Lucas Dickey","screen_name":"LucasDickey4","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"LucasDickey4","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989169728783524119","view_count":446,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763089994000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"@LucasDickey4 This is a great summary","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1449604717038825477","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989167000841777461","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-16","value":0,"startTime":1763164800000,"endTime":1763251200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[16,77],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1950463458648150016","name":"Stanley Wei","screen_name":"StanleyWei4748","indices":[0,15]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"StanleyWei4748","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989713118495490161","view_count":27,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763219549000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@StanleyWei4748 They were supposed to be the roaring 20s and we got this haha","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1950463458648150016","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989711120332910993","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[7,282],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"6874252","name":"Indus Khaitan","screen_name":"1ndus","indices":[0,6]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"1ndus","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989565798088937553","view_count":64,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763184425000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"There are great firms with more than four to five partners. I would just figure out who you're getting into business with and what that partners is standing at the firm. How long have they been there? Have they made any great investments yet? What's their career history look like? Are they someone who will bounce around a lot? Etc.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"6874252","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989558109883519352","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-17","value":0,"startTime":1763251200000,"endTime":1763337600000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-18","value":19,"startTime":1763337600000,"endTime":1763424000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,279],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990480739989868627","view_count":1894,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1763402564000,"favorite_count":16,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990480739989868627","full_text":"When vibe coding started getting popular, some people said, “we won’t need designers anymore, you can just design things yourself.” \n\nThe opposite happened.\n\nI talked to a well respected designer friend today who said freelance rates are climbing, and hiring a full-time designer in the U.S. now starts at $150K.\n\nHe shared a framing I liked:\n\n\"Teams understand the models are going to make everyone 7/10 designers. Which does eliminate the need for low end of the market. But if you can help someone ship 9 or 10/10 design you’ve never been more valuable because it’s now one of the core means of differentiation.\"\n\nAI made bad design easier. It made great design harder & more expensive.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,279],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990491897375436825","view_count":16659,"bookmark_count":48,"created_at":1763405224000,"favorite_count":101,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":16,"retweet_count":9,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990491897375436825","full_text":"When vibe coding started getting popular, some people said, “we won’t need designers anymore, you can just design things yourself.” \n\nThe opposite happened.\n\nI talked to a well respected designer friend today who said freelance design rates are getting more expensive, and hiring a full-time designer in the U.S. now starts at $150K.\n\nHe shared a framing I liked:\n\n\"Teams understand the models are going to make everyone 7/10 designers. Which does eliminate the need for low end of the market. But if you can help someone ship 9 or 10/10 design you’ve never been more valuable because it’s now one of the core means of differentiation.\"\n\nAI made bad design easier. It also made great design harder & more expensive.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-19","value":37,"startTime":1763424000000,"endTime":1763510400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,146],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/CzdN0xANyq","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1990572770015809922/photo/1","id_str":"1990571616619933696","indices":[147,170],"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5_uVrybMAAQ8U6.png","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/CzdN0xANyq","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":609,"width":568,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":318},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":568},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":534,"h":609},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":305,"h":609},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":609}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/CzdN0xANyq","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1990572770015809922/photo/1","id_str":"1990571616619933696","indices":[147,170],"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5_uVrybMAAQ8U6.png","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/CzdN0xANyq","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":609,"width":568,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":318},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":568},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":534,"h":609},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":305,"h":609},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":609}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990572770015809922","view_count":5620,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1763424506000,"favorite_count":27,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990572770015809922","full_text":"LP inbox right now: a flood of GPs explaining why they didn’t see the Bezos AI deal.\n\n\"Our sourcing engine is being rebuilt from first principles\" https://t.co/CzdN0xANyq","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1990841773799682300","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/ivg0YeXKEN","expanded":"https://twitter.com/yrechtman/status/1990841773799682300","display":"x.com/yrechtman/stat…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990855280654233609","view_count":23462,"bookmark_count":70,"created_at":1763491861000,"favorite_count":79,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":7,"retweet_count":4,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990855280654233609","full_text":"One question that every seed investor should be asking themselves right now is whether they should be focusing more on early traction rounds, as opposed to pre-product investing. \n\nIn the past couple months, we've met a few teams raising rounds at $30M-$40M post-valuation who have real traction ($1-$4m ARR). \n\nAs a seed investor, would you rather invest in one of these rounds at $40m post or a pre-product seed round that calls itself an AI company at a $20M-$30M post? They're basically priced the same. \n\nSome of the early tractions teams call these rounds \"seed extensions,\" and others stretch it to a Series A label. \n\nFor whatever reason, they haven't been treated as \"hot companies\" by the Series A market, but they're building very solid businesses that are growing well. \n\nI haven't come up with an exact terminology for these companies. They're generally not pure-play AI deals, but are often utilizing AI in interesting ways. The headline on the deck doesn't read AI deal, but they're real businesses. \n\nFor the sake of this essay, let's just call them \"AI tweeners\". \n\nThere is a temptation to invest in what is new (ie the brand new AI company raising at $20-$30m post) because you're investing in a cool story & get to help bring a new company to market & call yourself the lead. \n\nBut maybe the $40m \"AI tweener\" is a better bet. By paying a slight premium, you invest in a company that's figured a lot out, has revenue, and is building in a category that likely has less competition. \n\nThe challenge with investing in the $40M post is that you likely called yourself a seed firm to all of your limited partners, so your entry price is going to look like what has historically been called a Series A. Is this strategy drift, or is it being a good investor? \n\nIf your goal is to build the highest performing portfolio, investing in \"AI tweeners\" is the part of market that is likely most undervalued right now. \n\nSo maybe you should stop calling yourself a seed fund & invest in early traction companies while the rest of the market is obsessed with finding the next hot pre-product seed deal. \n\nJust some thoughts.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"3393185261","name":"yoni rechtman","screen_name":"yrechtman","indices":[2202,2212]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990857909635518465","view_count":9799,"bookmark_count":47,"created_at":1763492488000,"favorite_count":73,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":8,"retweet_count":5,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990857909635518465","full_text":"One question that every seed investor should be asking themselves right now is whether they should be focusing more on early traction rounds, as opposed to pre-product investing. \n\nIn the past couple months, we've met a few teams raising rounds at $30M-$40M post-valuation who have real traction ($1-$4m ARR). \n\nAs a seed investor, would you rather invest in one of these rounds at $40m post or a pre-product seed round that calls itself an AI company at a $20M-$30M post? They're basically priced the same. \n\nSome of the early tractions teams call these rounds \"seed extensions,\" and others stretch it to a Series A label. \n\nFor whatever reason, they haven't been treated as \"hot companies\" by the Series A market, but they're building very solid businesses that are growing well. \n\nI haven't come up with an exact terminology for these companies. They're generally not pure-play AI deals, but are often utilizing AI in interesting ways. The headline on the deck doesn't read AI deal, but they're real businesses. \n\nFor the sake of this essay, let's just call them \"AI tweeners\". \n\nThere is a temptation to invest in what is new (ie the brand new AI company raising at $20-$30m post) because you're investing in a cool story & get to help bring a new company to market & call yourself the lead. \n\nBut maybe the $40m \"AI tweener\" is a better bet. By paying a slight premium, you invest in a company that's figured a lot out, has revenue, and is building in a category that likely has less competition. \n\nThe challenge with investing in the $40M post is that you likely called yourself a seed firm to all of your limited partners, so your entry price is going to look like what has historically been called a Series A. Is this strategy drift, or is it being a good investor? \n\nIf your goal is to build the highest performing portfolio, investing in \"AI tweeners\" is the part of market that is likely most undervalued right now. \n\nSo maybe you should stop calling yourself a seed fund & invest in early traction companies while the rest of the market is obsessed with finding the next hot pre-product seed deal. \n\nJust some thoughts.\n\nOriginally written as a response to a tweet by @yrechtman, but creating a separate essay so more people can hopefully read it.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990865081354334636","view_count":7759,"bookmark_count":10,"created_at":1763494198000,"favorite_count":68,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":17,"retweet_count":4,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990865081354334636","full_text":"I am noticing a lot of apathy and despair in the crypto community right now. This is funny to me because we should all be basking in the opportunity to actually build valuable applications and companies right now.\n\nOne of the most common complaints in prior cycles was that crypto founders didn't have a fighting chance to run the experiments that they wanted to test due to regulatory battles. \n\nIn the United States, we have a very supportive regulatory environment right now, and it is possible to be a U.S. crypto founder in categories like Defi which were previously very dicey. \n\nBut for some reason, the mood amongst founders and investors is especially solemn right now.\n\nMy take is that building products and companies that people care about is incredibly hard, especially with AI dominating the headlines. \n\nIt was easy to use regulatory constraints as an excuse in prior cycles, and now that we no longer have that issue, we have to actually go build products that people use every day & care about. \n\nAnd these products can't be another L1/L2 or some abstract technical infrastructure that increases TPS or makes blockchains cheaper. We already have that. \n\nInfra was a convenient area for investors and founders to fund and build because you could TGE and get rich & punt on building applications. \n\nBut today, you have to go build applications that people care about. That's really it. There's almost nothing else to do on the infrastructure side to run the experiments that will validate how big crypto can be. \n\nThe industry needs to stop feeling sorry for itself and go prove that the many, many billions of dollars that have gone to the industry were building towards something meaningful. Stablecoins, payments, etc. are all obvious places to build real consumer value. \n\nNow is the time.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-20","value":0,"startTime":1763510400000,"endTime":1763596800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,228],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1915059354153160706","name":"moneydevkit","screen_name":"money_dev_kit","indices":[42,56]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1991151978953789614","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/EAfA4urbR2","expanded":"https://twitter.com/nickslaney/status/1991151978953789614","display":"x.com/nickslaney/sta…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1991154186755674513","view_count":171,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763563126000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1991154186755674513","full_text":"We’re thrilled to lead the seed round for @money_dev_kit. \n\nThey broke a world record today on the same day they announced the fundraise.\n\nNow the fastest way for anyone on earth to add payments. Builders are going to love this.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-21","value":0,"startTime":1763596800000,"endTime":1763683200000,"tweets":[]}],"nbookmarks":[{"label":"2025-10-22","value":2217,"startTime":1761004800000,"endTime":1761091200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":true,"display_text_range":[0,270],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rPx7ztdMGQ","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1980504752829132945/photo/1","id_str":"1980501236362153984","indices":[271,294],"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G3wnYZ6WkAAmnCh.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rPx7ztdMGQ","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":12,"y":110,"h":30,"w":30}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":422,"width":750,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":420},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":422,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":370,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":211,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":422}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rPx7ztdMGQ","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1980504752829132945/photo/1","id_str":"1980501236362153984","indices":[271,294],"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G3wnYZ6WkAAmnCh.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rPx7ztdMGQ","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":12,"y":110,"h":30,"w":30}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":422,"width":750,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":420},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":422,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":370,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":211,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":422}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980504752829132945","view_count":1096466,"bookmark_count":2205,"created_at":1761024103000,"favorite_count":28909,"quote_count":298,"reply_count":660,"retweet_count":3461,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"Everyone talks about AI slop. \nNo one talks about PE (private equity) slop.\n\n- restaurants that lost their soul\n- medical practices that feel like assembly lines\n- apartment buildings designed by an Excel formula\n\nThe algorithm didn’t kill culture. The margin model did. https://t.co/rPx7ztdMGQ","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,60],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"932630991298007041","name":"litquidity","screen_name":"litcapital","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"litcapital","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980648813561008268","view_count":24455,"bookmark_count":5,"created_at":1761058450000,"favorite_count":227,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@litcapital haha that’s what I’m saying, impossible to unsee","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"932630991298007041","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980647342371213594","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,51],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1301314271989518336","name":"illiquid","screen_name":"lefttailguy","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"lefttailguy","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980629841155330197","view_count":19708,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761053927000,"favorite_count":277,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@lefttailguy artisanal content, thank you very much","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1301314271989518336","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980628461417804114","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,161],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"156765498","name":"Michael Williams","screen_name":"mxwilliams","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"mxwilliams","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980633611884970415","view_count":14727,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761054826000,"favorite_count":149,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":16,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@mxwilliams maybe they would, most ppl hate going to the dentist for a variety of reasons.\n\n5% feels for a better experience is something ppl would prob pay for.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"156765498","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980632925075894309","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,134],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"14117767","name":"Jonas 🦩","screen_name":"jonaslamis","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"jonaslamis","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980506004510085379","view_count":17431,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761024402000,"favorite_count":126,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@jonaslamis You might be right. Maybe AI slop is just the tipping point that’s making us realize how sloppy the world has always been.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"14117767","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980505576590447033","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[17,63],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1081596786073128960","name":"Old white guy","screen_name":"obrecht_michael","indices":[0,16]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"obrecht_michael","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980676318359666791","view_count":11003,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1761065008000,"favorite_count":129,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@obrecht_michael thanks for sharing, not an easy thing to solve","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1081596786073128960","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980674670094373173","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-23","value":69,"startTime":1761091200000,"endTime":1761177600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,281],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981026514079805470","view_count":25016,"bookmark_count":69,"created_at":1761148501000,"favorite_count":210,"quote_count":3,"reply_count":26,"retweet_count":24,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981026514079805470","full_text":"There is a very big difference between running a venture fund and building a venture firm. \n\nI get a lot of aspiring venture capitalists who ask me about starting their own firm, and the quick thing I tell them is that they have to love company building & operations as much as they love investing. \n\nAt the end of the day, so much of your time is spent on fundraising, recruiting, and back office. You have to really love that stuff early on (or it least be good at it) when nobody is there to help you out.\n\nIf you don’t love the non-investing stuff or have enough self-awareness to know you're not good at it, you should definitely consider joining a platform. I have friends who are amazingly talented who have decided they only want to focus on investing, and they are very happy & many make a ton of money too. \n\nEasy to run a fund. Much harder to build a firm.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,237],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"935658795098832896","name":"Ibrahim S.","screen_name":"IbrahimS15","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"IbrahimS15","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980849065622683933","view_count":122,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761106194000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980666971650945285","full_text":"@IbrahimS15 This is the single best feedback from an interviewer that I've ever seen. I know it's hard to get past the rejection and the what-ifs of the opportunity, but use this as motivation, and you will do great things. Best of luck.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"935658795098832896","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980666971650945285","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-24","value":42,"startTime":1761177600000,"endTime":1761264000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981361260852892174","view_count":56764,"bookmark_count":42,"created_at":1761228311000,"favorite_count":96,"quote_count":5,"reply_count":20,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981361260852892174","full_text":"The death of SaaS has been overstated. \n\nWhen VCs or industry analysts say that SaaS is dead, they replace the word SaaS with AI agents or some other descriptor for B2B software.\n\nHuman addiction to technology is well known in the consumer space, and the same applies for anything in the enterprise. \n\nEnterprises are addicted to software, and whether the user is human or an agent doesn't matter. At the end of the day, there will always be a top 1% of founders and companies who design their software in a superior way to their competitors, and those will be massive companies where the TAM is even bigger than what was formerly called SaaS.\n\nSoftware is here to stay (with much more powerful capabilities!), which is such an obvious thing to state yet I'm hearing otherwise from my peers.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[9,288],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"6228302","name":"Sheel Mohnot","screen_name":"pitdesi","indices":[0,8]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"pitdesi","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981402156306760016","view_count":414,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761238061000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981381724702724256","full_text":"This is very true. \n\nI think from the outside, folks who hear this mistake the evolving business model with the death of an entire category of software.\n\nOrganizations are becoming even more software-obsessed, and there is a new generation of products that are quickly displacing incumbents. \n\nSoftware is obviously becoming easier to build, but the opportunity for venture capitalists is still massive. \n\nThese things feel so obvious to type, but you'd be surprised at how many conversations I have that revolve around this very topic.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"6228302","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981381724702724256","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[23,113],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"829946137","name":"Itai | dynamic.xyz","screen_name":"turbahn","indices":[0,8]},{"id_str":"1135606000868872192","name":"Fireblocks","screen_name":"FireblocksHQ","indices":[9,22]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"turbahn","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981417837395923151","view_count":264,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761241800000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981393151530254774","full_text":"@turbahn @FireblocksHQ Congrats, have loved working with you and the team the last few years. First class always.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"829946137","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981393151530254774","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-25","value":262,"startTime":1761264000000,"endTime":1761350400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981703025946501274","view_count":70,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761309794000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981703025946501274","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else you'll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should!), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. These are some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy and pursue the deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981703548401520684","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761309918000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981703548401520684","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else you'll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should!), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. These investments will stand out in your data room so you might as well get ahead of those conversations and explain your underwriting logic. \n\nThese are also some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy & pursue the really special deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981704081166016556","view_count":57,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761310045000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981704081166016556","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else you'll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. Those investments will stand out in your data room so you might as well get ahead of those conversations and explain your underwriting logic. \n\nThese are also some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy & pursue the really special deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981709123755610507","view_count":199549,"bookmark_count":256,"created_at":1761311248000,"favorite_count":346,"quote_count":18,"reply_count":23,"retweet_count":25,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else it’ll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. Those investments will stand out in your data room so you might as well get ahead of those conversations and explain your underwriting logic. \n\nThese are also some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy & pursue the really special deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,277],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"811350","name":"Alexis Ohanian 🗽","screen_name":"alexisohanian","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"alexisohanian","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981768701885264380","view_count":4259,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761325452000,"favorite_count":24,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@alexisohanian 100% true. I find that newer managers are more risk-averse to exceptions because they don't want to get fired by their LPs. If you study the history of venture capital, many of the best firms today became franchises in critical moments when they made exceptions.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"811350","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981767253252358505","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,286],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"69619073","name":"Andrew D'Souza","screen_name":"andrewdsouza","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"andrewdsouza","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981777971267743913","view_count":1943,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761327662000,"favorite_count":15,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@andrewdsouza Most LPAs don’t have strict parameters around valuations.\n\nThey more often have definitions around:\n\n- what % of fund can go to a single investment \n\n- recycling % \n\n- deployment period \n\nMost of the time these exceptions aren’t made because GPs are scared of being wrong.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"69619073","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981777001078788107","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,220],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1945812818932170753","name":"Neo","screen_name":"neo3141111","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"neo3141111","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981736892283469930","view_count":1741,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761317868000,"favorite_count":15,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@neo3141111 You could look at a long list of hundreds of GPs who have world class track records that have invested after the pre-seed. A very easy list of people to study would be folks like Peter Thiel, Fred Wilson, etc","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1945812818932170753","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981734983279562826","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,23],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"20397708","name":"Niki Scevak","screen_name":"nikiscevak","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"nikiscevak","lang":"fr","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981860895103025450","view_count":1021,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761347433000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@nikiscevak Raise in SF","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"20397708","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981860111879672307","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,45],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"75409972","name":"Josh Porter","screen_name":"joshdotporter","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"joshdotporter","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981818015080673366","view_count":950,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761337209000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@joshdotporter ty great seeing you this week!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"75409972","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981812251968545118","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,25],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1764321378507931648","name":"Rohan","screen_name":"proxy_vector","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"proxy_vector","lang":"ca","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981757033461481979","view_count":933,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761322670000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@proxy_vector 100 percent","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1764321378507931648","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981748076227301597","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,294],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"175934436","name":"Paul Yacoubian","screen_name":"PaulYacoubian","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"PaulYacoubian","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981706003306746307","view_count":1639,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761310504000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981704081166016556","full_text":"Ha, this is a dangerous game to play because exit value is the model input that tends to be the most hand-wavy. It's really easy to change the exit value from $10B to $20B and have your entire model look like a work of art.\n\nI find that newer investors overestimate exit value on their investment proposals, and that the model assumption is normally tied to a 1x RTF (return the fund) outcome when your winners should math out to outcomes that are far greater like 3x-5x net or above. \n\nGetting the RTF model to make sense is becoming harder to build as entry prices become higher. The math just doesn't math out most of the time. So some just change that exit value to $1T and do the deal :)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"175934436","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981704634734711025","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-26","value":0,"startTime":1761350400000,"endTime":1761436800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,132],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"6781512","name":"Martin Tobias (Pre-Seed VC)","screen_name":"MartinGTobias","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"MartinGTobias","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982144968669135150","view_count":658,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761415161000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@MartinGTobias 100%. Fully believe that an 80/20 core vs. \"breaking the rules\" barbell strategy is the best for an early-stage firm.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"6781512","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1982141432950391154","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-27","value":130,"startTime":1761436800000,"endTime":1761523200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982472740914540939","view_count":880,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1761493308000,"favorite_count":7,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982472740914540939","full_text":"One of the most common questions you’ll get when fundraising for a venture fund is about sourcing. \n\nLPs are ultimately buying into your thesis and your access, so it makes sense that sourcing is one of the first questions.\n\nThe question is hard to answer because sourcing usually comes from many different channels & almost every VC believes their approach is better than their peers’.\n\nI can’t even imagine how confusing it must be for an LP who covers venture as part of a broader portfolio to figure out what’s real and what’s not. They get pitched by hundreds of managers a year, all claiming the same “proprietary deal flow” story.\n\nSo I figured I’d write a quick note on how I think about sourcing.\n\nI like to compare sourcing to multi-channel marketing. You have multiple inputs driving top of funnel, and ideally three or four strategies that create a sourcing flywheel.\n\nIt sometimes feels like LPs are searching for a single channel they can bring to their IC and say, “Look, they have a better sourcing engine.” But relying on one channel is risky. The game changes & so do relationships and competition.\n\nSourcing is never a magic bullet. Despite the debates, I don’t believe anyone has a true proprietary sourcing advantage beyond their reputation.\n\nSpeaking of proprietary networks... \n\nI met with a well-known GP recently who is now investing in a small number of funds & he asked which proprietary networks we have access to. It was a fair question, but I pushed back bc there are no truly proprietary networks in venture anymore.\n\nTake YC, for example. Founders could easily join other accelerators or raise the traditional way, but they choose YC because they trust it will get them further, faster. That trust is the differentiator.\n\nOr look at the handful of firms that have built entire franchises by backing Elon again and again - SpaceX, Tesla, The Boring Company, etc. The sourcing channel is no secret; the access is. And that access comes from relationships earned over decades.\n\nEveryone’s searching for a sourcing “hack.” The truth is, there isn’t one. The only real proprietary network in venture is your reputation. \n\nSo when LPs ask about sourcing, I try to reframe the question. It’s not where we find companies but it’s why the best founders choose to work with us once they’re found. \n\nThat’s the real edge, and it’s built over years, not through a single channel or campaign.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982476724895113555","view_count":17942,"bookmark_count":127,"created_at":1761494258000,"favorite_count":147,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":8,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982476724895113555","full_text":"One of the most common questions you’ll get when fundraising for a venture fund is about sourcing. \n\nLPs are ultimately buying into your thesis and your access, so it makes sense that sourcing is one of the first questions.\n\nThe question is hard to answer because sourcing usually comes from many different channels & almost every VC believes their approach is better than their peers’.\n\nI can’t even imagine how confusing it must be for an LP who covers venture as part of a broader portfolio to figure out what’s real and what’s not. They get pitched by hundreds of managers a year, all claiming the same “proprietary deal flow” story.\n\nSo I figured I’d write a quick note on how I think about sourcing.\n\nI like to compare sourcing to multi-channel marketing. You have multiple inputs driving top of funnel, and ideally three or four strategies that create a sourcing flywheel.\n\nIt sometimes feels like LPs are searching for a single channel they can bring to their IC and say, “Look, they have a better sourcing engine.” But relying on one channel is risky. The game changes & so do relationships and competition.\n\nSourcing is never a magic bullet. Despite the debates, I don’t believe anyone has a true proprietary sourcing advantage beyond their reputation.\n\nSpeaking of proprietary networks... \n\nI met with a well-known GP recently who is now investing in a small number of funds & he asked which proprietary networks we have access to. It was a fair question, but I pushed back bc there are no truly proprietary networks in venture anymore.\n\nTake YC. Founders could easily join other accelerators or raise the traditional way, but they choose YC because they trust it will get them further, faster. YC doesn’t have a proprietary network - it has a brand that founders want to be associated with. They trust YC to be the best Day 1 partner to help them build something valuable.\n\nWhat’s even more interesting is what happens after YC. Because it’s such an efficient marketplace, every venture firm has access to the same company list - it’s one of the most transparent markets in venture. We all know each batch will include a handful of outliers. None of that is proprietary sourcing. The real differentiation is in how firms underwrite conviction early and actually win those deals.\n\nOr look at the handful of firms that have built entire franchises by backing Elon again and again - SpaceX, Tesla, The Boring Company, etc. The sourcing channel is no secret; the access is. And that access comes from relationships earned over decades.\n\nEveryone’s searching for a sourcing “hack.” The truth is, there isn’t one. The only real proprietary network in venture is your reputation. \n\nSo when LPs ask about sourcing, I try to reframe the question. It’s not where we find companies but it’s why the best founders choose to work with us once they’re found. \n\nThat’s the real edge, and it’s built over years, not through a single channel or campaign.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-28","value":0,"startTime":1761523200000,"endTime":1761609600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,133],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982861967221240040","view_count":417,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761586107000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982861967221240040","full_text":"Every airport lounge is like:\n\n“Our menu is thoughtfully curated by award-winning chef _______” with some random I've never heard of.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982863864191713386","view_count":3987,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761586559000,"favorite_count":21,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982863864191713386","full_text":"Every airport lounge is like:\n\n“Our menu is thoughtfully curated by award-winning chef ____” with some random I've never heard of.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-29","value":0,"startTime":1761609600000,"endTime":1761696000000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-30","value":98,"startTime":1761696000000,"endTime":1761782400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983566611404521838","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761754107000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983566611404521838","full_text":"I had a funny conversation with an LP a couple weeks back where he said, \"If I hear another venture capitalist say the words 'prepared mind' again, I will go crazy.\" \n\nThere are many terms like this that get repeated in GP land, especially during AGM season when we’re all bumping into each other often: \n\n • Thesis-driven\n • Thematic \n • Research-driven\n • Prepared mind\n • First principles\n\nThe list goes on. \n\nAs a starting point, if you're an investor, you should absolutely be all these things. \n\nYour job is to develop a point of view on the world, identify a set of problems that you think will become big markets, and find the best founders to solve those problems.\n\nThe concept of a prepared mind has mostly been co-opted for fundraising purposes in venture capital, but the concept is still important to practice and understand. \n\nAt its core, a prepared mind means that you have spent enough time in a given market to know when you meet a founder who is solving the right problem at the right time.\n\nThis is literally the job of an investor, so every single venture capitalist should have a prepared mind. \n\nAnyways, enough on this topic for now. I have a meeting with an LP, and I'm going into it with a prepared mind ;)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983567542862970996","view_count":18,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761754329000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983567542862970996","full_text":"I had a funny conversation with an LP a couple weeks back where he said, \"If I hear another venture capitalist say the words 'prepared mind' again, I will go crazy.\" \n\nThere are many terms like this that get repeated in GP land, especially during AGM season when we’re all bumping into each other often: \n\n • Thesis-driven\n • Thematic \n • Research-driven\n • Prepared mind\n • First principles\n\nThe list goes on. \n\nAs a starting point, if you're an investor, you should absolutely practice all these things, but in 99% of cases this isn’t a differentiated approach. \n\nYour job is to develop a point of view on the world, identify a set of problems that you think will become big markets, and find the best founders to solve those problems.\n\nCall it whatever you want but that’s what great investors do. \n\nThe concept of a prepared mind has mostly been co-opted for fundraising purposes in venture capital, but the concept is still important to practice and understand. \n\nAt its core, a prepared mind means that you have spent enough time in a given market to know when you meet a founder who is solving the right problem at the right time.\n\nThis is literally the job of an investor, so every single venture capitalist should have a prepared mind. \n\nAnyways, enough on this topic for now. I have a meeting with an LP, and I'm going into it with a prepared mind ;)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983568035559419942","view_count":11074,"bookmark_count":34,"created_at":1761754447000,"favorite_count":83,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":10,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983568035559419942","full_text":"I had a fun conversation with an LP a couple weeks back where he said, \"If I hear another venture capitalist say the words 'prepared mind' again, I will go crazy.\" \n\nThere are many terms like this that get repeated in GP land, especially during AGM season when we’re all bumping into each other often: \n\n • Thesis-driven\n • Thematic \n • Research-driven\n • Prepared mind\n • First principles\n\nThe list goes on. \n\nAs a starting point, if you're an investor, you should absolutely practice all these things, but in 99% of cases this isn’t a differentiated approach. \n\nBut yes, your job is to develop a point of view on the world, identify a set of problems that you think will become big markets, and find the best founders to solve those problems.\n\nCall it whatever you want but that’s what great investors do. \n\nThe concept of a prepared mind has mostly been co-opted for fundraising purposes in venture capital, but it’s still important to practice and understand. \n\nAt its core, a prepared mind means that you have spent enough time in a given market to know when you meet a founder who is solving the right problem at the right time.\n\nThis is literally the job of an investor, so every single venture capitalist should have a prepared mind. \n\nAnyways, enough on this topic for now. I have a meeting with an LP, and I'm going into it with a prepared mind ;)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,295],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983615157277487153","view_count":21522,"bookmark_count":56,"created_at":1761765681000,"favorite_count":73,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":13,"retweet_count":8,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983615157277487153","full_text":"Engagement -> Retention -> Monetization used to be the funnel of building products & companies. \n\nMonetization -> Engagement -> Retention is the order that I'm seeing founders prioritize today in the AI age.\n\nI love monetization & spent 5 years of my life waking up every day trying to increase subs/a la carte purchases while leading the revenue team at the top grossing app in the world. \n\nSo you would think I'd agree that monetization is what everybody should spend their time thinking about, but the answer is far more nuanced. \n\nWe hear the words \"Vibe Revenue\" or \"Experimental Revenue\" being thrown out a lot this year in podcasts and newsletters, and those are accurate terms to describe what so much of monetization feels like today. \n\nIn prior cycles, founders had to earn the right to focus on monetization by building a great product first. \n\nA great product can be subjective - we use the words 'taste' and 'craft' a lot, but you can also measure it by looking first at engagement & then studying retention. \n\nThe problem with focusing on monetization too early is that you create a false sense of success, especially if you haven't seen renewal cycles yet. \n\nI am guessing there is a significant percentage of new companies who stare at their engagement and retention data all day long (which might be going up & to the right) & know there are deep flaws in their product. \n\nBut they lean on monetization ($0-$10m in a year!) to make it seem like they've found product-market fit with their own teams & investors. \n\nIt's a lot of fun to make money. I had the most fun ever in my operating career leading revenue teams. It can be addicting at times. \n\nBut the only reason we became the top-grossing app in the world is because we had best-in-class engagement and retention metrics for our category. We earned the right to monetize. \n\nI hope we get back to a world where everything starts with engagement and retention. Then we can talk about revenue.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,96],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1983617932791050265","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/voxOtB2akT","expanded":"https://twitter.com/spenserskates/status/1983617932791050265","display":"x.com/spenserskates/…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983637002928189443","view_count":14244,"bookmark_count":8,"created_at":1761770890000,"favorite_count":69,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":6,"retweet_count":4,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983637002928189443","full_text":"100%. The feature-vs-company blur might be the defining question of this AI cycle for investors.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-31","value":146,"startTime":1761782400000,"endTime":1761868800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,279],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1219566488325017602","name":"Supabase","screen_name":"supabase","indices":[776,785]},{"id_str":"24486938","name":"Nikhil Basu Trivedi","screen_name":"nbt","indices":[2899,2903]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983834443648278593","view_count":148751,"bookmark_count":122,"created_at":1761817963000,"favorite_count":237,"quote_count":6,"reply_count":47,"retweet_count":13,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"I had a conversation with an investor yesterday who claimed there hasn’t been a hit consumer app in over five years.\n\nMy response: ChatGPT is a consumer app.\n\nHe pushed back saying “It started as a research lab, not a consumer company.”\n\nThat convo made me realize how broken our definition of “consumer” has become.\n\nYears ago, I invested in Superhuman after watching my friends (and my Twitter feed) rave about it nonstop. At the time, I was working at a consumer company, yet I never questioned whether Superhuman was “consumer” or not.\n\nPeople love Superhuman for both personal and work use & it’s a daily habit with engagement and retention stronger than most social apps. If that’s not consumer behavior, what is?\n\nThis might sound surprising to some, but I also viewed @supabase from a consumer lens when we invested in the pre-seed, despite it being an open source dev tool. More than the underlying technology, I was most fascinated by the bottoms up nature of how developers were adopting the database and how passionate the early community was about the product.\n\nOpen source projects arguably have stronger communities than most consumer products, and the behaviors are social by nature. They have some of most interesting network effects as every incremental developer makes the project stronger. This aligns perfectly with the classic definition of network effects. \n\nI’ve also always believed that products built by product-first founders, designed for broad, personal use should be considered consumer products. \n\nBut somewhere along the way, we invented the term prosumer, and it’s confused everyone. \n\nIt made these products sound like mini-enterprise tools, which undersells that they’re designed for mass-market behaviors wrapped in productivity.\n\nBy that logic, Superhuman, ChatGPT, Perplexity, and a growing list of “non-consumer” tools are absolutely consumer products.\n\nChatGPT alone has over 750 million weekly active users which is mainstream adoption by any definition. And as it evolves into agentic e-commerce and video gen tools like Sora, its use cases are only getting more personal.\n\nWhy does this matter?\n\nBecause category definitions drive fundraising.\n\nIf you’re a founder pitching a “consumer” product, your pool of potential investors shrinks dramatically. If you just look at how venture firms organize internally, they often literally split their teams by enterprise and consumer, which makes no sense to me. \n\nThe same goes for VCs pitching LPs where consumer is still viewed as a cyclical category. If you send a consumer venture fund deck to a large group of LPs, many categorically wouldn't take your pitch. \n\nIn reality “consumer” today looks nothing like “social, local, mobile” which is how so many people think of consumer. \n\nWork and life are blending, and the products we use every day at home & at work don’t fit cleanly into old boxes.\n\nMy friend @nbt once wrote about the consumerization of the enterprise saying:\n\n“Amazon the largest e-commerce (consumer!) company in the world, offers Amazon Web Services, the largest cloud services (enterprise!) business in the world.\n\nNVIDIA, the largest personal computer graphics (consumer!) company in the world, offers graphics processing units (GPUs) for artificial intelligence applications (enterprise!), and has seen its market cap grow 20X in the past decade since this dual focus.”\n\nThe next generation of breakout apps won’t be defined by where they’re used, but by how deeply they integrate into daily life.\n\nWe’re in the golden age of consumer products. And yes, ChatGPT counts.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,172],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1542601224654127105","name":"Helius","screen_name":"heliuslabs","indices":[11,22]},{"id_str":"1309886201944473600","name":"mert | helius.dev","screen_name":"0xMert_","indices":[74,82]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1983479334947176680","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/LIavHNiSYf","expanded":"https://twitter.com/0xMert_/status/1983479334947176680","display":"x.com/0xMert_/status…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983884450229579777","view_count":11583,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1761829886000,"favorite_count":48,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":5,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983884450229579777","full_text":"We had our @heliuslabs board meeting yesterday. \n\nThe engineering pace of @0xMert_ and the entire team is wild right now.\n\nAnd the roadmap is about to get VERY interesting.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,279],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/uNgGonZr3V","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1983891914207469656/photo/1","id_str":"1983891704093798401","indices":[280,303],"media_key":"3_1983891704093798401","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4gy_mda8AE6LL8.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/uNgGonZr3V","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":217,"y":53,"h":88,"w":88}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":872,"w":766,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":872,"w":766,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":680,"w":597,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":872,"width":766,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":429},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":766},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":765,"h":872},{"x":152,"y":0,"w":436,"h":872},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":872}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1983891704093798401"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/uNgGonZr3V","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1983891914207469656/photo/1","id_str":"1983891704093798401","indices":[280,303],"media_key":"3_1983891704093798401","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4gy_mda8AE6LL8.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/uNgGonZr3V","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":217,"y":53,"h":88,"w":88}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":872,"w":766,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":872,"w":766,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":680,"w":597,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":872,"width":766,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":429},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":766},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":765,"h":872},{"x":152,"y":0,"w":436,"h":872},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":872}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1983891704093798401"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983891914207469656","view_count":5435,"bookmark_count":19,"created_at":1761831665000,"favorite_count":24,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983891914207469656","full_text":"I’ve been reading \"Who Knew\" by Barry Diller this week. \n\nI had the chance to meet Barry twice during my early days at Tinder.\n\nThe first time was three days before Christmas in 2015. I was still new at the company and trying to make a name for myself, so I showed up on December 22nd with just a few others.\n\n“Who’s that guy in the tracksuit?” one of our youngest engineers asked, looking up from his monitor.\n\nI glanced over and saw Barry Diller, owner of IAC and one of Tinder’s biggest shareholders.\n\nI didn’t know it at the time, but Barry (then 75 years old) had a tradition of visiting the Tinder office right before Christmas every year. He’d walk the floor asking questions, genuinely curious about what everyone was building.\n\nI watched him approach one of our engineers and ask, “What are you working on?”\n\nThe engineer started explaining what he was doing in very technical terms, and Barry listened without interrupting. I don’t think the engineer knew who he was because if he did, I’m pretty sure he would’ve been a lot more nervous explaining his code!\n\nA year later, in 2016, I made sure to be in the office those same few days before Christmas. The office was mostly empty again and we had just moved into a much larger space.\n\nSure enough, the guy in the tracksuit showed up again, right on cue. Barry Diller.\n\nHe made his rounds, saying hello and asking the few of us still in the office the same question: “What are you working on?”\n\nOne of the central themes of \"Who Knew\" and of Barry’s career is his obsession with understanding how things work at the most fundamental level:\n\n\"Only if I slowed everything down could I begin to understand all the parts and then try to rearrange them into something coherent. I tend to make things worse in the beginning as I fumble around trying to get to basic truths. Instinct, which I prize almost all else, doesn’t work very well for me in abstruse matters.\n\nI have to get to the core DNA on any matter, its logical essence, before I can add anything of value. This takes a lot of time, often to the irritation of faster thinkers, but when it does crystallize, I can’t be deterred.\n\nI listen with an extra ear, highly attuned to hear a new truth among the cacophony of voices in the room. When I catch that note, no matter what I might have thought before, I’ll change course in a second.\n\nIf I’ve ever had any kind of secret sauce, it’s the ability to hear conflicting, creative ideas bombarded around the room and extract something valuable.\n\nRecently in a meeting, someone complained that I wasn’t being consistent. I replied that I’m never consistent; I’ll turn on a dime if I hear a better truth.” \n- (Barry Diller, Who Knew)\n\nLooking back, I realize that when he asked what we were building, it wasn’t about oversight or management control. It was pure curiosity.\n\nMost leaders want to look smart. Barry wanted to get smart and understand the smallest molecule of what we were building, even on the sleepy days before Christmas.\n\nThe best investors and leaders don’t chase outcomes. They want to understand the wiring underneath.\n\nShow up, ask questions & keep asking until it makes sense. The tracksuit is optional.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[11,161],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"441679284","name":"brett goldstein","screen_name":"thatguybg","indices":[0,10]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"thatguybg","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983843170493382696","view_count":778,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761820044000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@thatguybg Most consumer apps have evolved their business models to subscriptions (same as bottoms up enterprise) and most have tiered pricing at this point too.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"441679284","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983842584788398438","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,293],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"13955342","name":"Trace Vertical Ai Cohen","screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983868789059154119","view_count":518,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761826152000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@Trace_Cohen 100%. On Supabase, they had a cultish community who loved the product before the pre-seed.\n\nAs an investor who does enterprise & consumer like myself, it was helpful to underwrite through a consumer lens.\n\nNow it's a mass market developer product selling to large enterprises.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"13955342","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983867417655750680","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[11,110],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1979921","name":"Josh Elman","screen_name":"joshelman","indices":[0,10]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"joshelman","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983892716288405682","view_count":930,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761831857000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@joshelman 100%. Also fwiw I think Josh Elman is invested in almost all the best consumer apps of his vintage!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1979921","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983892303245885616","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,85],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"35647451","name":"Turner Novak 🍌🧢","screen_name":"TurnerNovak","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"TurnerNovak","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983927717734047759","view_count":667,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761840202000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@TurnerNovak Haha! This was before i got pitched because someone thought I was an LP.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"35647451","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983926158862262518","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,43],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1054947848","name":"Nicole Priel","screen_name":"smallbigtalk","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"smallbigtalk","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983846327105544322","view_count":212,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761820797000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@smallbigtalk would love to read the thesis","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1054947848","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983846102391791901","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,269],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"3014388155","name":"Jeddi","screen_name":"antinertia","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"antinertia","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983857862607827087","view_count":232,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761823547000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@antinertia Prosumer is what they’ve called it historically but those companies tend to get discounted in fundraising from what I’ve seen.\n\nProbably because investors view them as being “in between” both markets. \n\nSo I don’t advise calling yourself a prosumer company.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"3014388155","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983857075298943121","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,32],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"41771957","name":"Ryan Morris","screen_name":"RyanMorris55","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"RyanMorris55","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983893392791925073","view_count":161,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761832018000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@RyanMorris55 Thank you brother!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"41771957","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983893276349415508","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,179],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"2363641","name":"jason yeh","screen_name":"jasonoliver","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"jasonoliver","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983952515470352895","view_count":431,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761846114000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@jasonoliver 100%. And shopping is coming fast with agentic e-commerce. ChatGPT (and its competitors) will end up owning dominant market share across multiple consumer categories.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"2363641","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983951551866831342","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[9,227],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"150388200","name":"Warren Shaeffer","screen_name":"wwshaef","indices":[0,8]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"wwshaef","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983946533159772285","view_count":272,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761844688000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@wwshaef I agree with your definition. Simple is very useful. \n\nMost bottoms-up software has consumer overlap. \n\nProductivity Software is a decent label but tends to devalue companies because there haven’t been many huge exits.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"150388200","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983945638405611746","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-01","value":1,"startTime":1761868800000,"endTime":1761955200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,124],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"39191312","name":"Kirsten Green","screen_name":"kirstenagreen","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"kirstenagreen","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1984113931565330944","view_count":863,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761884598000,"favorite_count":7,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1984107536052842496","full_text":"@kirstenagreen “ChatGPT wasn’t necessarily designed as a consumer product, but consumers claimed it anyway.”\n\nExactly right.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"39191312","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1984107536052842496","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[7,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"22961818","name":"Todd Jackson","screen_name":"tjack","indices":[0,6]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"tjack","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1984358200276382017","view_count":247,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761942837000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@tjack That's a great list, and 100% agree.\n\nConsumer gets anchored on social and things like DTC which is an outdated definition.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"22961818","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1984344313393004585","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-02","value":16,"startTime":1761955200000,"endTime":1762041600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/cf2xeuTten","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1984669264100618636/photo/1","id_str":"1984666463513559043","indices":[277,300],"media_key":"3_1984666463513559043","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4rzoiNbQAMI02X.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/cf2xeuTten","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1067,"w":1600,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":800,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":453,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":1067,"width":1600,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":72,"w":1600,"h":896},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1067,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":936,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":534,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1600,"h":1067}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1984666463513559043"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1718560501825933312","name":"Discipulus Ventures","screen_name":"DiscipulusVent","indices":[38,53]},{"id_str":"1213544133878370304","name":"Jakob Diepenbrock","screen_name":"jakobdiepen","indices":[73,85]},{"id_str":"1718560501825933312","name":"Discipulus Ventures","screen_name":"DiscipulusVent","indices":[38,53]},{"id_str":"1213544133878370304","name":"Jakob Diepenbrock","screen_name":"jakobdiepen","indices":[73,85]},{"id_str":"1333613797907582976","name":"Augustus Doricko","screen_name":"ADoricko","indices":[519,528]},{"id_str":"1716643091137056768","name":"Rainmaker Technology Corporation","screen_name":"RainmakerCorp","indices":[534,548]},{"id_str":"1152136922694766593","name":"Ted Feldmann","screen_name":"teddyfeld","indices":[550,560]},{"id_str":"1843811438332391427","name":"Durin","screen_name":"DurinMining","indices":[566,578]},{"id_str":"1435266698701991936","name":"Isaiah Taylor - making nuclear reactors","screen_name":"isaiah_p_taylor","indices":[610,626]},{"id_str":"1676587706896490496","name":"Valar Atomics","screen_name":"valaratomics","indices":[632,645]},{"id_str":"1213544133878370304","name":"Jakob Diepenbrock","screen_name":"jakobdiepen","indices":[657,669]},{"id_str":"1718560501825933312","name":"Discipulus Ventures","screen_name":"DiscipulusVent","indices":[2816,2831]}]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/cf2xeuTten","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1984669264100618636/photo/1","id_str":"1984666463513559043","indices":[277,300],"media_key":"3_1984666463513559043","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4rzoiNbQAMI02X.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/cf2xeuTten","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1067,"w":1600,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":800,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":453,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":1067,"width":1600,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":72,"w":1600,"h":896},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1067,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":936,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":534,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1600,"h":1067}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1984666463513559043"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1984669264100618636","view_count":11258,"bookmark_count":16,"created_at":1762017000000,"favorite_count":66,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":9,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1984669264100618636","full_text":"I spent Thursday in El Segundo at the @DiscipulusVent Demo Day hosted by @jakobdiepen and team. \n\nAs I walked up to the venue, I immediately saw three Bay Area investors standing in line. \n\nAll of them had flown in from San Francisco for the event, which was great to see. But when I walked through the doors, I realized it wasn’t just a Bay Area thing. The room was packed with investors from all over the country who’d made the same trip. Clearly, something real is happening here.\n\nThe day started with a panel with @ADoricko from @RainmakerCorp, @teddyfeld from @DurinMining (Ch. 1 portfolio company), and @isaiah_p_taylor from @valaratomics along with @jakobdiepen - who gave a quick history lesson on El Segundo’s roots.\n\nBefore World War II, this city was home to Douglas Aircraft, builder of the SBD Dauntless dive bomber and a symbol of American industrial strength. It’s no accident that so many “America First” companies are being built here again. Founders in El Segundo are carrying that legacy forward.\n\nThey showed a map of the current startup ecosystem, which is 55+ companies, and most of them have come into existence since 2023. \n\nI know 55 companies doesn't sound like a huge number, but as you think about the venture capital interest and momentum that El Segundo has, it's easy to imagine that number becoming 100’s and 1000’s in years to come in the city and surrounding areas. \n\nOne of the other most interesting messages was how El Segundo is evolving from being a bit of a meme (which was very intentional to get people to pay attention) to now deploying products in the physical world. \n\nAugustus from Rainmaker had just gotten back from a trip to Oregon where they deployed rain the prior day (I believe he said the cloud seeding operation was 100m+ gallons). \n\nTed from Durin had recently successfully completed his first drilling operation in Nevada. Both companies have done so on modest budgets, and the founders challenged the idea that hard tech is as capital-intensive as most venture capitalists think. \n\nThe demo day featured ten companies spanning a wide range of sectors, all united around one core theme: strengthening America.\n\nThese founders are tackling hard, meaningful problems in areas like energy, autonomous manufacturing, commodity trading, heavy equipment procurement, autonomous farming, and oil and gas.\n\nIt’s worth noting that many of the companies aren’t pure hardware plays. Some are software-first, and others are software-enabled hardware, which, frankly, is what all hardware is becoming.\n\nMy takeaway is that there doesn’t need to be such a hard divide between hardware and software investors. These worlds are starting to blend, and I expect that collaboration to accelerate over the next few years.\n\nWhat’s clear is that El Segundo is here to stay & that @DiscipulusVent is building something special (I’m a proud LP in the fund). The founders here are working on serious problems, and the momentum is real. I’d bet the next demo day will draw an even bigger crowd of investors from across the country.\n\nVery bullish on El Segundo & the next chapter for LA tech.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-03","value":2,"startTime":1762041600000,"endTime":1762128000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,277],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1984846679720542704","view_count":2379,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1762059299000,"favorite_count":21,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":6,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1984846679720542704","full_text":"I grew up in the Bay Area as a Giants fan, but now live in Los Angeles and goes without saying, this city earned a championship this year. Congratulations to the Dodgers.\n\nFor anyone who’s been here, 2025 has been a brutal year for Los Angeles. The January 7th fires marked the start of years of loss and rebuilding. Tonight’s win gives people here something to rally around, something that actually feels good again.\n\nSports have a way of healing pain and heartbreak. Being in L.A. tonight feels like the city finally got a moment of relief.\n\nCongratulations to the Dodgers and to Los Angeles.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-04","value":0,"startTime":1762128000000,"endTime":1762214400000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-05","value":5,"startTime":1762214400000,"endTime":1762300800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,54],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1985639448785174836","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/8rm1V9sGlK","expanded":"https://twitter.com/uialexk/status/1985639448785174836","display":"x.com/uialexk/status…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1985707818230452710","view_count":9198,"bookmark_count":5,"created_at":1762264611000,"favorite_count":26,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1985707818230452710","full_text":"We have entered the large narrow sans serif slop phase","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,291],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1457278696931405828","name":"rosie (🔟/🔟)","screen_name":"therosieum","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"therosieum","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1985840026744189139","view_count":22,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762296132000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1984987750647333350","full_text":"This was a great post.\n\n“The problem is, you can’t build anything meaningful in 18 months. Real infrastructure takes at least 3–5 years. Real product-market fit requires iteration over years, not quarters.”\n\nThat said, I actually think those timelines are compressing.\n\nInfra can now be built in 1–2 years, and PMF can happen in weeks or months for strong applications.\n\nWe just need more original ideas - not the 75th prediction market.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1457278696931405828","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1984987750647333350","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-06","value":0,"startTime":1762300800000,"endTime":1762387200000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-07","value":4,"startTime":1762387200000,"endTime":1762473600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,134],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"768929915844513792","name":"Jamesin Seidel","screen_name":"seidtweets","indices":[123,134]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1986437434213544227","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/XjktPxYNjP","expanded":"https://twitter.com/viraj__acharya/status/1986437434213544227","display":"x.com/viraj__acharya…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986494295663386907","view_count":4971,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762452122000,"favorite_count":9,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986494295663386907","full_text":"Jamesin killed it as always.\n\nThe best venture firms earn the right to be “partners” & not just investors. \n\nWell done @seidtweets","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"44196397","name":"Elon Musk","screen_name":"elonmusk","indices":[64,73]},{"id_str":"44196397","name":"Elon Musk","screen_name":"elonmusk","indices":[64,73]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986557513740001382","view_count":3764,"bookmark_count":4,"created_at":1762467194000,"favorite_count":18,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986557513740001382","full_text":"Tesla AGM right now is all about the robots 🤖\nA few quotes from @elonmusk:\n\nOn scale:\n“Optimus is going to be the biggest product of all time. Bigger than cell phones. Bigger than anything else.”\n\nOn use cases:\n“There will be 3–5 industrial robots for every personal robot.”\n\nOn speed:\n“We’re going to launch the fastest production ramp of any large manufactured product, starting with a million-unit per year production line in Fremont.”\n\nRobots aren’t coming. They’re already here.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-08","value":35,"startTime":1762473600000,"endTime":1762560000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986839703291896042","view_count":9,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762534473000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986839703291896042","full_text":"The “hype video” startup trend will fade, just like every other form of attention arbitrage.\n\nI say that as someone who actually went to film school and loves video. But we’ve reached the point where agencies are producing hype videos for fundraising rounds just to trigger VC FOMO.\n\nVirality has never been easier to manufacture, or shorter-lived.\n\nSpending $25K on a product video might make sense from a valuation or dilution standpoint. But is that really the culture you want to build?\n\nAnd when the investors who FOMO’d into your round realize the growth story doesn’t hold up, how do you think that plays out?\n\nBuild great products. The hype video era is already getting stale.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986841507282964826","view_count":113,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1762534903000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986841507282964826","full_text":"The “hype video” startup trend will fade, just like every other form of attention arbitrage.\n\nI say that as someone who actually went to film school and loves video. But we’ve reached the point where agencies are producing hype videos for fundraising rounds just to trigger VC fomo. \n\nIt’s now part of the fundraising playbook:\n\nMake a pitch deck. Make a hype video. Go a little bit viral. Rinse and repeat.\n\nVirality has never been easier to manufacture, but it’s also never been shorter-lived.\n\nSpending $25K on a product video might make sense from a valuation or dilution standpoint. But is that really the culture you want to build?\n\nAnd when the investors who FOMO’d into your round realize the growth story doesn’t hold up, how do you think that plays out?\n\nBuild great products that solve real problems. The hype video era is already stale.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,275],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986848712908546121","view_count":18228,"bookmark_count":32,"created_at":1762536621000,"favorite_count":92,"quote_count":7,"reply_count":13,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986848712908546121","full_text":"The “hype video” startup trend will fade, just like every other form of attention arbitrage.\n\nI say that as someone who actually went to film school and loves video. But we’ve reached the point where agencies are producing hype videos for fundraising rounds just to create VC fomo. \n\nIt’s now part of the fundraising playbook:\n\nMake a pitch deck. Make a hype video. Go a little bit viral. Rinse & repeat.\n\nVirality has never been easier to manufacture, but it’s also never been shorter-lived. The investors you actually want around for the next decade can tell the difference.\n\nSpending $25K on a product video might make sense from a valuation or dilution standpoint. But is that really the culture you want to build?\n\nAnd when the investors who FOMO’d into your round realize the growth story doesn’t hold up, how do you think that plays out?\n\nBuild great products that solve real problems. The hype video era is already stale.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,215],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986892752286883962","view_count":3190,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1762547121000,"favorite_count":18,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986892752286883962","full_text":"The most important part of “staying in crypto” as an early stage investor is being completely unemotional about the markets.\n\nI feel nothing when our crypto book swings 20–30%.\n\nMaybe that’s unhealthy. But it works.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-09","value":203,"startTime":1762560000000,"endTime":1762646400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,234],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"787810160513200129","name":"Chapter One","screen_name":"chapterone","indices":[50,61]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986969884362940562","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762565511000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986969884362940562","full_text":"Yesterday we locked in two deals that will define @chapterone’s next chapter.\n\nOne: an incubation with a major IP partner (a year in the making).\n\nTwo: a product we’ll launch publicly soon with a major tech platform. \n\nAlways cooking.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,239],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"787810160513200129","name":"Chapter One","screen_name":"chapterone","indices":[50,61]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986970650532327456","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762565693000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986970650532327456","full_text":"Yesterday we locked in two deals that will define @chapterone’s next chapter.\n\nOne: an incubation with a major IP partner (a year in the making).\n\nTwo: a product we’ll launch publicly soon with a well known tech platform. \n\nAlways cooking.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,232],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"787810160513200129","name":"Chapter One","screen_name":"chapterone","indices":[50,61]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986970741779407185","view_count":6055,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1762565715000,"favorite_count":48,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986970741779407185","full_text":"Yesterday we locked in two deals that will define @chapterone’s next chapter.\n\nOne: an incubation with a major IP partner (a year in the making).\n\nTwo: a product we’ll launch publicly soon with a big tech platform. \n\nAlways cooking.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,281],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987236350836494777","view_count":164696,"bookmark_count":200,"created_at":1762629041000,"favorite_count":476,"quote_count":11,"reply_count":30,"retweet_count":21,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1987236350836494777","full_text":"Startup beef is always funny.\n\nYears ago, I worked at a marketplace & we decided Craigslist was our enemy. We built narratives around “beating” them, studied their every move, and even shaped internal goals around taking their users. I’m pretty sure they never thought about us once.\n\nLater, we shifted our obsession to TaskRabbit. Remember Taskrabbit? We spent so much energy trying to outdo them w/ pricing wars, feature debates, endless comparisons. But in the end, neither of us became a breakout, venture-scale success.\n\nThe real competitors were the ones playing a much bigger game: DoorDash, Instacart, Uber. We knew those founders personally, hung out with them at the same SF parties, but never saw them as direct competition. Turns out, they were just playing a different sport entirely.\n\nI see the same thing today in AI and crypto. Startups beefing over tiny overlaps, chasing small wins. Before you pick a fight, make sure you’re actually in a market worth winning. \n\nOtherwise, you’ll wake up every morning obsessed with a game that doesn’t matter.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,54],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"954060455831580672","name":"Molly O’Shea","screen_name":"MollySOShea","indices":[0,12]},{"id_str":"768929915844513792","name":"Jamesin Seidel","screen_name":"seidtweets","indices":[21,32]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"MollySOShea","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987168354260689078","view_count":85,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762612830000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986824069094822264","full_text":"@MollySOShea Talk to @seidtweets - she will have ideas","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"954060455831580672","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1986824069094822264","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,107],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"21706010","name":"Daniel Pearson","screen_name":"danielpearson","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"danielpearson","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987239060021387360","view_count":5021,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762629687000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1987236350836494777","full_text":"@danielpearson Love that Peter Thiel quote and very true.\n\nIf only we had venture funds at that point haha.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"21706010","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987237809229599115","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-10","value":0,"startTime":1762646400000,"endTime":1762732800000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-11","value":0,"startTime":1762732800000,"endTime":1762819200000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-12","value":0,"startTime":1762819200000,"endTime":1762905600000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-13","value":0,"startTime":1762905600000,"endTime":1762992000000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-14","value":126,"startTime":1762992000000,"endTime":1763078400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"4188045073","name":"Jordi Hays","screen_name":"jordihays","indices":[828,838]},{"id_str":"30736937","name":"John Coogan","screen_name":"johncoogan","indices":[841,852]},{"id_str":"1838288550569349120","name":"TBPN","screen_name":"tbpn","indices":[856,861]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988981359013163127","view_count":63,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763045084000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988981359013163127","full_text":"Venture Capital Musical Chairs\n\nWhen I first got into venture capital, I assumed that General Partners stayed at firms for most of their careers. From the outside, venture capital shops looked like stable institutions. At the very least, they felt more permanent than the startups they backed.\n\nThat assumption was dead wrong.\n\nBack then, I was at Tinder and a scout for Index Ventures. It was an awesome experience, but I definitely underestimated how turbulent things can be inside other venture firms I was co-investing with and getting to know more closely.\n\nThat turbulence has only accelerated in the last few years. Every week, I see partners leaving, firms reshaping their strategies, and LP relationships shifting. \n\nIt feels like watching ESPN at this point waiting for Shams to break some trade news. Luckily we have @jordihays & @johncoogan at @tbpn.\n\nFor founders, venture capital musical chairs feels like something happening on the other side of the table. You sense the industry shifting, but you’re busy building your company. Whatever chaos is unfolding inside venture firms isn’t exactly top of mind.\n\nBut you should be thinking about it a lot more. And here's why. \n\nWhen you raise from a venture firm, you don’t really raise from the firm. You raise from a specific partner. You take their calls, you trust their judgment, and you build your relationship around them. They’re the one who sits on your board, texts you late at night, and ideally, fights for you when things get tough. \n\nWhen they leave, you lose that advocate. Suddenly, the person who cared most about your survival inside the partnership is gone.\n\nIn today’s venture world, that partner may not even be around by the time your next fundraise rolls around. \n\nI was talking to a former partner at a multi-stage fund yesterday, and she told me that the average partner at a venture firm sticks around for 7 years. And when they leave, the implications for you are important to understand.\n\nWhat often happens next is that you become an “adopted company.” Other partners don’t rush to claim you, because supporting you doesn’t count toward their scoreboard. Venture is a business built on attribution, and if they didn’t source or lead your deal, the incentive to spend time helping you is low. You end up feeling like the kid at the dinner table nobody wants to introduce.\n\nBoard dynamics only make the problem worse. If your original partner leaves, their seat might be reassigned to someone who barely knows your business, or worse, someone who doesn’t care to. \n\nNow you’re wasting cycles re-educating a new person who has little emotional or financial attachment to your success. Instead of focusing on building, you’re back at square one, explaining the basics to someone who isn’t invested in your story.\n\nAnd then there’s the signaling risk. Other investors notice when your champion departs their firm. LPs notice too. Even if your company is performing well, your life will change.\n\n“Is the firm still supporting you?” You’ll get asked this question dozens of times by other investors, potential hires, and media. You can explain this pretty easily, but it’s just one of those annoying questions that you’ll have to talk about for many years to come.\n\nThis isn’t meant to be morbid. It’s a reminder to choose your partners carefully and understand their career trajectory and standing inside the firm.\n\nFundraising is chaotic right now. Bubble or not, founders and investors are speed-dating their way into big rounds, and everyone’s expected to build trust on a timeline that would be insane in any normal business relationship.\n\nMy best advice is don’t assume the partner you pick will be there forever. Get to know the rest of the partnership, understand how they think, and make sure you actually believe in the firm’s culture and ethos.\n\nA friend put it well yesterday: the only person who’s almost certainly sticking around is the founder of the firm. That’s the longest term partner you're getting into business with. You may not get much access to the founder(s) of a firm, but it’s still worth knowing their story, their reputation, and how they’ve shown up for founders over time.\n\nIf your deal sponsor is gone in a few years, would you still be proud to call that firm your investor? \n\nIf the answer is yes, great, but make sure you’re diligencing them as hard as they’re diligencing you.\n\nVenture Capital Musical Chairs isn’t stopping anytime soon. If anything, it will get much spicier as we understand which partners took massive AI swings that will generate many billions for their firms, or leave their firms holding the bag.\n\nIn either case, your partner still might leave. \n\nInvestors who crushed this AI wave might use that momentum to spin out and start their own firms. And the ones who didn’t get big wins in this cycle might be looking for new jobs soon for reasons we all understand.\n\nAs a founder, choose your partners carefully and make damn sure you’re not the last one left standing when the music stops. \n\nFin.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"4188045073","name":"Jordi Hays","screen_name":"jordihays","indices":[859,869]},{"id_str":"30736937","name":"John Coogan","screen_name":"johncoogan","indices":[872,883]},{"id_str":"1838288550569349120","name":"TBPN","screen_name":"tbpn","indices":[887,892]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988983199872004228","view_count":66136,"bookmark_count":126,"created_at":1763045523000,"favorite_count":165,"quote_count":6,"reply_count":19,"retweet_count":23,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"Venture Capital Musical Chairs (And Why Founders Should Care)\n\nWhen I first got into venture capital, I assumed that General Partners stayed at firms for most of their careers. From the outside, venture capital shops looked like stable institutions. At the very least, they felt more permanent than the startups they backed.\n\nThat assumption was dead wrong.\n\nBack then, I was at Tinder and a scout for Index Ventures. It was an awesome experience, but I definitely underestimated how turbulent things can be inside other venture firms I was co-investing with and getting to know more closely.\n\nThat turbulence has only accelerated in the last few years. Every week, I see partners leaving, firms reshaping their strategies, and LP relationships shifting. \n\nIt feels like watching ESPN at this point waiting for Shams to break some trade news. Luckily we have @jordihays & @johncoogan at @tbpn.\n\nFor founders, venture capital musical chairs feels like something happening on the other side of the table. You sense the industry shifting, but you’re busy building your company. Whatever chaos is unfolding inside venture firms isn’t exactly top of mind.\n\nBut you should be thinking about it a lot more. And here's why. \n\nWhen you raise from a venture firm, you don’t really raise from the firm. You raise from a specific partner. You take their calls, you trust their judgment, and you build your relationship around them. They’re the one who sits on your board, texts you late at night, and ideally, fights for you when things get tough. \n\nWhen they leave, you lose that advocate. Suddenly, the person who cared most about your survival inside the partnership is gone.\n\nIn today’s venture world, that partner may not even be around by the time your next fundraise rolls around. \n\nI was talking to a former partner at a multi-stage fund yesterday, and she told me that the average partner at a venture firm sticks around for 7 years. And when they leave, the implications for you are important to understand.\n\nWhat often happens next is that you become an “adopted company.” Other partners don’t rush to claim you, because supporting you doesn’t count toward their scoreboard. Venture is a business built on attribution, and if they didn’t source or lead your deal, the incentive to spend time helping you is low.\n\nBoard dynamics only make the problem worse. If your original partner leaves, their seat might be reassigned to someone who barely knows your business, or worse, someone who doesn’t care to. \n\nNow you’re wasting cycles re-educating a new person who has little emotional or financial attachment to your success. Instead of focusing on building, you’re back at square one, explaining the basics to someone who isn’t invested in your story.\n\nAnd then there’s the signaling risk. Other investors notice when your champion departs their firm. LPs notice too. Even if your company is performing well, your life will change.\n\n“Is the firm still supporting you?” You’ll get asked this question dozens of times by other investors, potential hires, and media. You can explain this pretty easily, but it’s just one of those annoying questions that you’ll have to talk about for many years to come.\n\nThis isn’t meant to be morbid. It’s a reminder to choose your partners carefully and understand their career trajectory and standing inside the firm.\n\nFundraising is chaotic right now. Bubble or not, founders and investors are speed-dating their way into big rounds, and everyone’s expected to build trust on a timeline that would be insane in any normal business relationship.\n\nMy best advice is don’t assume the partner you pick will be there forever. Get to know the rest of the partnership, understand how they think, and make sure you actually believe in the firm’s culture and ethos.\n\nA friend put it well yesterday: the only person who’s almost certainly sticking around is the founder of the firm. That’s the longest term partner you're getting into business with. You may not get much access to the founder(s) of a firm, but it’s still worth knowing their story, their reputation, and how they’ve shown up for founders over time.\n\nVenture Capital Musical Chairs isn’t stopping anytime soon. If anything, it will get much spicier as we understand which partners took massive AI swings that will generate many billions for their firms, or leave their firms holding the bag.\n\nIn either case, your partner still might leave. \n\nInvestors who crushed this AI wave might use that momentum to spin out and start their own firms. And the ones who didn’t get big wins in this cycle might be looking for new jobs soon for reasons we all understand.\n\nAs a founder, choose your partners carefully and make damn sure you’re not the last one left standing when the music stops. \n\nFin.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,75],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"35647451","name":"Turner Novak 🍌🧢","screen_name":"TurnerNovak","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"TurnerNovak","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988990321540399109","view_count":1308,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763047220000,"favorite_count":4,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"@TurnerNovak Very effective Sparknotes version - I need you to be my editor","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"35647451","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1988989896195756499","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-15","value":85,"startTime":1763078400000,"endTime":1763164800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,87],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1989156238018683215","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/Ssm5bH6JtM","expanded":"https://twitter.com/rohanpaul_ai/status/1989156238018683215","display":"x.com/rohanpaul_ai/s…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989213951863955480","view_count":2628,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1763100538000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989213951863955480","full_text":"Solana FDV: $80B (feels cheap)\nA 1-year-old AI startup: $50B\n\nWelcome to pure-vibes VC.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,121],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rsKQuQih8o","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1989184813312680086/photo/1","id_str":"1989184305332174848","indices":[122,145],"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5sAligbQAAxQo3.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rsKQuQih8o","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":977,"y":403,"h":520,"w":520},{"x":1347,"y":59,"h":635,"w":635},{"x":507,"y":376,"h":589,"w":589}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":572,"y":236,"h":304,"w":304},{"x":789,"y":35,"h":372,"w":372},{"x":297,"y":220,"h":345,"w":345}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":324,"y":134,"h":172,"w":172},{"x":447,"y":19,"h":211,"w":211},{"x":168,"y":124,"h":195,"w":195}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":1833,"y":757,"h":975,"w":975},{"x":2527,"y":112,"h":1192,"w":1192},{"x":952,"y":705,"h":1106,"w":1106}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1152,"w":2048,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":675,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":2160,"width":3840,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":10,"w":3840,"h":2150},{"x":552,"y":0,"w":2160,"h":2160},{"x":685,"y":0,"w":1895,"h":2160},{"x":1092,"y":0,"w":1080,"h":2160},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":3840,"h":2160}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[{"display_url":"x.com/OpenAI/status/…","expanded_url":"https://x.com/OpenAI/status/1989138776585851038","url":"https://t.co/5gFtHQYNiu","indices":[98,121]}],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rsKQuQih8o","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1989184813312680086/photo/1","id_str":"1989184305332174848","indices":[122,145],"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5sAligbQAAxQo3.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rsKQuQih8o","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":977,"y":403,"h":520,"w":520},{"x":1347,"y":59,"h":635,"w":635},{"x":507,"y":376,"h":589,"w":589}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":572,"y":236,"h":304,"w":304},{"x":789,"y":35,"h":372,"w":372},{"x":297,"y":220,"h":345,"w":345}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":324,"y":134,"h":172,"w":172},{"x":447,"y":19,"h":211,"w":211},{"x":168,"y":124,"h":195,"w":195}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":1833,"y":757,"h":975,"w":975},{"x":2527,"y":112,"h":1192,"w":1192},{"x":952,"y":705,"h":1106,"w":1106}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1152,"w":2048,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":675,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":2160,"width":3840,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":10,"w":3840,"h":2150},{"x":552,"y":0,"w":2160,"h":2160},{"x":685,"y":0,"w":1895,"h":2160},{"x":1092,"y":0,"w":1080,"h":2160},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":3840,"h":2160}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"quoted_status_id_str":"1983834443648278593","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/t56Kl9NM7f","expanded":"https://twitter.com/jmj/status/1983834443648278593","display":"x.com/jmj/status/198…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989184813312680086","view_count":19239,"bookmark_count":23,"created_at":1763093591000,"favorite_count":52,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989184813312680086","full_text":"ChatGPT now has group chats.\n\nCongrats to the newest social network on the internet. Case closed.\nhttps://t.co/5gFtHQYNiu https://t.co/rsKQuQih8o","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,282],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989423657438121993","view_count":21867,"bookmark_count":60,"created_at":1763150536000,"favorite_count":102,"quote_count":5,"reply_count":24,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"Vibe Investing Is the New Vibe Coding\n\nThe institutional memory of what happened in 2020–2022 is basically gone. It’s wild how quickly we as an industry forgot.\n\nI have a theory that our brains now process trauma & even financial bubbles in smaller and smaller increments. We’re living through the compression of emotional memory. Our tech industry systems take in stimuli that are too frequent, too loud, and too fast, so nothing sticks. \n\nI dug into my theory more (which you’ve likely felt intuitively but maybe haven’t articulated) and it turns out there’s actually a concept called “emotional amnesia\" which is a feeling numb or disconnected about what is happening around you.\n\nI won’t bore you with the academic details, but my takeaway as applied to venture capital is that the half-life on lessons learned (and in most businesses) is collapsing at the same pace you scroll a TikTok feed. We breeze past a $3B seed round at a $30B valuation like it’s a TMZ clip. \n\nAs a first-time manager who launched a fund in 2019, the 2020–2022 bubble left a permanent imprint on me. I’ll never forget what that period felt like. \n\nThe velocity, FOMO & the total detachment from fundamentals was intoxicating for everyone. Your seed check jumps from a $10M post to a $150M post in 30 days. Congrats… I guess? Because now you have to decide whether to follow on. And it’s a tier-one lead. What do you do?\n\nThat environment pushed every firm, including the great ones, into some objectively terrible decisions.\n\nAnd when I look at venture today, the industry barely resembles what it was even six years ago. We used to joke about “vibe investing” as the exception. The charismatic founder with cult-leader energy, the weird but magnetic pitch, the occasional “let’s take a flyer and see what happens.” Now it’s the norm. \n\nAura and an AI narrative = 10 term sheets.\n\nThere are insanely talented, credible operators building world-changing companies. But a $50B valuation for a pre-product seed round? Is that even venture capital? Call it whatever you want (and honestly we probably need a new category name) because it’s a completely different industry at this point.\n\nThe biggest takeaway is that at almost every stage from seed, growth, crossover, even public markets, we’re operating on vibes. Maybe I’m slowly becoming a boomer for even saying this.\n\nBut it's narrative over numbers, momentum over diligence, social proof over actual proof.\n\nCritics dunk on “vibe coding” as a Gen Z builder phenomenon that creates technical slop, but venture capital has built its own version: vibe investing.\n\nDrop a pitch deck into ChatGPT, run a Deep Research query, and boom “I don’t even need analysts anymore!” You skim the output in five minutes between pitch calls and try to stitch together a market thesis. Meanwhile the founder is a fundraising machine and every other firm is running the exact same Deep Research report you are.\n\nYou better move fast.\n\nSo you hop into Granola, grab one smart-sounding insight from your call, and paste it into Slack like you discovered fire. Your partners light up. Then you mention the founder already has multiple term sheets and suddenly everyone’s ready to clear their calendars.\n\nWe won’t know what turns into investment slop for a few years, but vibe-driven deals are definitely going to push that percentage way up. \n\nMaybe that’s fine & maybe this time really is different, and the outliers will paper over all the vibe-investing slop. But if you’re an emerging manager or running a concentrated portfolio, that’s a dangerous way to live. You don’t get to spray-and-pray your way out of vibes.\n\nRight now the vibes are insanely strong. It’s exciting. I feel just as fired up as everyone else and that energy is exactly why venture and technology keep marching forward.\n\nBut if I had one message today it would be this. \n\nGOOD LUCK AVOIDING THE SLOP.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,14],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"25232333","name":"Pat McGovern","screen_name":"pw_mcgovern","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"pw_mcgovern","lang":"qme","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989437186396332277","view_count":90,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763153761000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@pw_mcgovern 🔥","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"25232333","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989435465892606039","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,47],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"180030016","name":"davidfeiock","screen_name":"davidfeiock","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"davidfeiock","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989439081856864670","view_count":95,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763154213000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@davidfeiock Doing my best to please the people","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"180030016","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989438684970840404","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[16,33],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"90144647","name":"Viraj Acharya","screen_name":"Viraj__Acharya","indices":[0,15]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Viraj__Acharya","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989474730047672821","view_count":55,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763162712000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@Viraj__Acharya Haha yes happy to","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"90144647","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989469687676350678","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,283],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"729253848787738624","name":"george beall","screen_name":"GeorgePBeall","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"GeorgePBeall","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989425758935363750","view_count":254,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763151037000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@GeorgePBeall There will be a mean reversion as DPI gets realized. There is a category land grab right now, and the opportunity is massive, so capital is piling in. Long-term bullish on AI, but at some point, early stage investors will need to get back to some version of discipline.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"729253848787738624","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989425239139520664","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,292],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"13955342","name":"Trace Vertical Ai Cohen","screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989438237971300635","view_count":292,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1763154012000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"Agreed. I think the biggest mistake people will make is not knowing what game they're playing. An emerging manager with a smaller fund trying to execute on the multi-stage strategy is problematic. You have windows of opportunity where you can do things that are outside your core strategy, and putting guard rails on that bucket is hugely important. It's also really easy to let the guard rails down.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"13955342","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989437434082595107","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[11,103],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"192784466","name":"Jeff Richards","screen_name":"jrichlive","indices":[0,10]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"jrichlive","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989351865327472987","view_count":302,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763133419000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"@jrichlive Wild - will check back on this tweet in a few years so you can tell me about the 4th and 5th","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"192784466","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989350740587077902","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,37],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1449604717038825477","name":"Lucas Dickey","screen_name":"LucasDickey4","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"LucasDickey4","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989169728783524119","view_count":446,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763089994000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"@LucasDickey4 This is a great summary","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1449604717038825477","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989167000841777461","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-16","value":0,"startTime":1763164800000,"endTime":1763251200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[16,77],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1950463458648150016","name":"Stanley Wei","screen_name":"StanleyWei4748","indices":[0,15]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"StanleyWei4748","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989713118495490161","view_count":27,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763219549000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@StanleyWei4748 They were supposed to be the roaring 20s and we got this haha","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1950463458648150016","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989711120332910993","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[7,282],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"6874252","name":"Indus Khaitan","screen_name":"1ndus","indices":[0,6]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"1ndus","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989565798088937553","view_count":64,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763184425000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"There are great firms with more than four to five partners. I would just figure out who you're getting into business with and what that partners is standing at the firm. How long have they been there? Have they made any great investments yet? What's their career history look like? Are they someone who will bounce around a lot? Etc.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"6874252","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989558109883519352","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-17","value":0,"startTime":1763251200000,"endTime":1763337600000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-18","value":50,"startTime":1763337600000,"endTime":1763424000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,279],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990480739989868627","view_count":1894,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1763402564000,"favorite_count":16,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990480739989868627","full_text":"When vibe coding started getting popular, some people said, “we won’t need designers anymore, you can just design things yourself.” \n\nThe opposite happened.\n\nI talked to a well respected designer friend today who said freelance rates are climbing, and hiring a full-time designer in the U.S. now starts at $150K.\n\nHe shared a framing I liked:\n\n\"Teams understand the models are going to make everyone 7/10 designers. Which does eliminate the need for low end of the market. But if you can help someone ship 9 or 10/10 design you’ve never been more valuable because it’s now one of the core means of differentiation.\"\n\nAI made bad design easier. It made great design harder & more expensive.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,279],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990491897375436825","view_count":16659,"bookmark_count":48,"created_at":1763405224000,"favorite_count":101,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":16,"retweet_count":9,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990491897375436825","full_text":"When vibe coding started getting popular, some people said, “we won’t need designers anymore, you can just design things yourself.” \n\nThe opposite happened.\n\nI talked to a well respected designer friend today who said freelance design rates are getting more expensive, and hiring a full-time designer in the U.S. now starts at $150K.\n\nHe shared a framing I liked:\n\n\"Teams understand the models are going to make everyone 7/10 designers. Which does eliminate the need for low end of the market. But if you can help someone ship 9 or 10/10 design you’ve never been more valuable because it’s now one of the core means of differentiation.\"\n\nAI made bad design easier. It also made great design harder & more expensive.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-19","value":130,"startTime":1763424000000,"endTime":1763510400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,146],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/CzdN0xANyq","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1990572770015809922/photo/1","id_str":"1990571616619933696","indices":[147,170],"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5_uVrybMAAQ8U6.png","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/CzdN0xANyq","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":609,"width":568,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":318},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":568},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":534,"h":609},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":305,"h":609},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":609}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/CzdN0xANyq","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1990572770015809922/photo/1","id_str":"1990571616619933696","indices":[147,170],"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5_uVrybMAAQ8U6.png","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/CzdN0xANyq","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":609,"width":568,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":318},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":568},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":534,"h":609},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":305,"h":609},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":609}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990572770015809922","view_count":5620,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1763424506000,"favorite_count":27,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990572770015809922","full_text":"LP inbox right now: a flood of GPs explaining why they didn’t see the Bezos AI deal.\n\n\"Our sourcing engine is being rebuilt from first principles\" https://t.co/CzdN0xANyq","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1990841773799682300","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/ivg0YeXKEN","expanded":"https://twitter.com/yrechtman/status/1990841773799682300","display":"x.com/yrechtman/stat…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990855280654233609","view_count":23462,"bookmark_count":70,"created_at":1763491861000,"favorite_count":79,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":7,"retweet_count":4,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990855280654233609","full_text":"One question that every seed investor should be asking themselves right now is whether they should be focusing more on early traction rounds, as opposed to pre-product investing. \n\nIn the past couple months, we've met a few teams raising rounds at $30M-$40M post-valuation who have real traction ($1-$4m ARR). \n\nAs a seed investor, would you rather invest in one of these rounds at $40m post or a pre-product seed round that calls itself an AI company at a $20M-$30M post? They're basically priced the same. \n\nSome of the early tractions teams call these rounds \"seed extensions,\" and others stretch it to a Series A label. \n\nFor whatever reason, they haven't been treated as \"hot companies\" by the Series A market, but they're building very solid businesses that are growing well. \n\nI haven't come up with an exact terminology for these companies. They're generally not pure-play AI deals, but are often utilizing AI in interesting ways. The headline on the deck doesn't read AI deal, but they're real businesses. \n\nFor the sake of this essay, let's just call them \"AI tweeners\". \n\nThere is a temptation to invest in what is new (ie the brand new AI company raising at $20-$30m post) because you're investing in a cool story & get to help bring a new company to market & call yourself the lead. \n\nBut maybe the $40m \"AI tweener\" is a better bet. By paying a slight premium, you invest in a company that's figured a lot out, has revenue, and is building in a category that likely has less competition. \n\nThe challenge with investing in the $40M post is that you likely called yourself a seed firm to all of your limited partners, so your entry price is going to look like what has historically been called a Series A. Is this strategy drift, or is it being a good investor? \n\nIf your goal is to build the highest performing portfolio, investing in \"AI tweeners\" is the part of market that is likely most undervalued right now. \n\nSo maybe you should stop calling yourself a seed fund & invest in early traction companies while the rest of the market is obsessed with finding the next hot pre-product seed deal. \n\nJust some thoughts.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"3393185261","name":"yoni rechtman","screen_name":"yrechtman","indices":[2202,2212]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990857909635518465","view_count":9799,"bookmark_count":47,"created_at":1763492488000,"favorite_count":73,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":8,"retweet_count":5,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990857909635518465","full_text":"One question that every seed investor should be asking themselves right now is whether they should be focusing more on early traction rounds, as opposed to pre-product investing. \n\nIn the past couple months, we've met a few teams raising rounds at $30M-$40M post-valuation who have real traction ($1-$4m ARR). \n\nAs a seed investor, would you rather invest in one of these rounds at $40m post or a pre-product seed round that calls itself an AI company at a $20M-$30M post? They're basically priced the same. \n\nSome of the early tractions teams call these rounds \"seed extensions,\" and others stretch it to a Series A label. \n\nFor whatever reason, they haven't been treated as \"hot companies\" by the Series A market, but they're building very solid businesses that are growing well. \n\nI haven't come up with an exact terminology for these companies. They're generally not pure-play AI deals, but are often utilizing AI in interesting ways. The headline on the deck doesn't read AI deal, but they're real businesses. \n\nFor the sake of this essay, let's just call them \"AI tweeners\". \n\nThere is a temptation to invest in what is new (ie the brand new AI company raising at $20-$30m post) because you're investing in a cool story & get to help bring a new company to market & call yourself the lead. \n\nBut maybe the $40m \"AI tweener\" is a better bet. By paying a slight premium, you invest in a company that's figured a lot out, has revenue, and is building in a category that likely has less competition. \n\nThe challenge with investing in the $40M post is that you likely called yourself a seed firm to all of your limited partners, so your entry price is going to look like what has historically been called a Series A. Is this strategy drift, or is it being a good investor? \n\nIf your goal is to build the highest performing portfolio, investing in \"AI tweeners\" is the part of market that is likely most undervalued right now. \n\nSo maybe you should stop calling yourself a seed fund & invest in early traction companies while the rest of the market is obsessed with finding the next hot pre-product seed deal. \n\nJust some thoughts.\n\nOriginally written as a response to a tweet by @yrechtman, but creating a separate essay so more people can hopefully read it.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990865081354334636","view_count":7759,"bookmark_count":10,"created_at":1763494198000,"favorite_count":68,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":17,"retweet_count":4,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990865081354334636","full_text":"I am noticing a lot of apathy and despair in the crypto community right now. This is funny to me because we should all be basking in the opportunity to actually build valuable applications and companies right now.\n\nOne of the most common complaints in prior cycles was that crypto founders didn't have a fighting chance to run the experiments that they wanted to test due to regulatory battles. \n\nIn the United States, we have a very supportive regulatory environment right now, and it is possible to be a U.S. crypto founder in categories like Defi which were previously very dicey. \n\nBut for some reason, the mood amongst founders and investors is especially solemn right now.\n\nMy take is that building products and companies that people care about is incredibly hard, especially with AI dominating the headlines. \n\nIt was easy to use regulatory constraints as an excuse in prior cycles, and now that we no longer have that issue, we have to actually go build products that people use every day & care about. \n\nAnd these products can't be another L1/L2 or some abstract technical infrastructure that increases TPS or makes blockchains cheaper. We already have that. \n\nInfra was a convenient area for investors and founders to fund and build because you could TGE and get rich & punt on building applications. \n\nBut today, you have to go build applications that people care about. That's really it. There's almost nothing else to do on the infrastructure side to run the experiments that will validate how big crypto can be. \n\nThe industry needs to stop feeling sorry for itself and go prove that the many, many billions of dollars that have gone to the industry were building towards something meaningful. Stablecoins, payments, etc. are all obvious places to build real consumer value. \n\nNow is the time.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-20","value":0,"startTime":1763510400000,"endTime":1763596800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,228],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1915059354153160706","name":"moneydevkit","screen_name":"money_dev_kit","indices":[42,56]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1991151978953789614","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/EAfA4urbR2","expanded":"https://twitter.com/nickslaney/status/1991151978953789614","display":"x.com/nickslaney/sta…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1991154186755674513","view_count":171,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763563126000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1991154186755674513","full_text":"We’re thrilled to lead the seed round for @money_dev_kit. \n\nThey broke a world record today on the same day they announced the fundraise.\n\nNow the fastest way for anyone on earth to add payments. Builders are going to love this.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-21","value":0,"startTime":1763596800000,"endTime":1763683200000,"tweets":[]}],"nretweets":[{"label":"2025-10-22","value":3469,"startTime":1761004800000,"endTime":1761091200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":true,"display_text_range":[0,270],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rPx7ztdMGQ","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1980504752829132945/photo/1","id_str":"1980501236362153984","indices":[271,294],"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G3wnYZ6WkAAmnCh.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rPx7ztdMGQ","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":12,"y":110,"h":30,"w":30}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":422,"width":750,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":420},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":422,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":370,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":211,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":422}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rPx7ztdMGQ","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1980504752829132945/photo/1","id_str":"1980501236362153984","indices":[271,294],"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G3wnYZ6WkAAmnCh.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rPx7ztdMGQ","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":12,"y":110,"h":30,"w":30}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":422,"width":750,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":420},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":422,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":370,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":211,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":422}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980504752829132945","view_count":1096466,"bookmark_count":2205,"created_at":1761024103000,"favorite_count":28909,"quote_count":298,"reply_count":660,"retweet_count":3461,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"Everyone talks about AI slop. \nNo one talks about PE (private equity) slop.\n\n- restaurants that lost their soul\n- medical practices that feel like assembly lines\n- apartment buildings designed by an Excel formula\n\nThe algorithm didn’t kill culture. The margin model did. https://t.co/rPx7ztdMGQ","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,60],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"932630991298007041","name":"litquidity","screen_name":"litcapital","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"litcapital","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980648813561008268","view_count":24455,"bookmark_count":5,"created_at":1761058450000,"favorite_count":227,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@litcapital haha that’s what I’m saying, impossible to unsee","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"932630991298007041","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980647342371213594","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,51],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1301314271989518336","name":"illiquid","screen_name":"lefttailguy","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"lefttailguy","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980629841155330197","view_count":19708,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761053927000,"favorite_count":277,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@lefttailguy artisanal content, thank you very much","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1301314271989518336","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980628461417804114","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,161],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"156765498","name":"Michael Williams","screen_name":"mxwilliams","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"mxwilliams","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980633611884970415","view_count":14727,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761054826000,"favorite_count":149,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":16,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@mxwilliams maybe they would, most ppl hate going to the dentist for a variety of reasons.\n\n5% feels for a better experience is something ppl would prob pay for.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"156765498","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980632925075894309","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,134],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"14117767","name":"Jonas 🦩","screen_name":"jonaslamis","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"jonaslamis","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980506004510085379","view_count":17431,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761024402000,"favorite_count":126,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@jonaslamis You might be right. Maybe AI slop is just the tipping point that’s making us realize how sloppy the world has always been.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"14117767","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980505576590447033","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[17,63],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1081596786073128960","name":"Old white guy","screen_name":"obrecht_michael","indices":[0,16]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"obrecht_michael","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980676318359666791","view_count":11003,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1761065008000,"favorite_count":129,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@obrecht_michael thanks for sharing, not an easy thing to solve","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1081596786073128960","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980674670094373173","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-23","value":24,"startTime":1761091200000,"endTime":1761177600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,281],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981026514079805470","view_count":25016,"bookmark_count":69,"created_at":1761148501000,"favorite_count":210,"quote_count":3,"reply_count":26,"retweet_count":24,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981026514079805470","full_text":"There is a very big difference between running a venture fund and building a venture firm. \n\nI get a lot of aspiring venture capitalists who ask me about starting their own firm, and the quick thing I tell them is that they have to love company building & operations as much as they love investing. \n\nAt the end of the day, so much of your time is spent on fundraising, recruiting, and back office. You have to really love that stuff early on (or it least be good at it) when nobody is there to help you out.\n\nIf you don’t love the non-investing stuff or have enough self-awareness to know you're not good at it, you should definitely consider joining a platform. I have friends who are amazingly talented who have decided they only want to focus on investing, and they are very happy & many make a ton of money too. \n\nEasy to run a fund. Much harder to build a firm.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,237],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"935658795098832896","name":"Ibrahim S.","screen_name":"IbrahimS15","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"IbrahimS15","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980849065622683933","view_count":122,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761106194000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980666971650945285","full_text":"@IbrahimS15 This is the single best feedback from an interviewer that I've ever seen. I know it's hard to get past the rejection and the what-ifs of the opportunity, but use this as motivation, and you will do great things. Best of luck.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"935658795098832896","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980666971650945285","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-24","value":7,"startTime":1761177600000,"endTime":1761264000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981361260852892174","view_count":56764,"bookmark_count":42,"created_at":1761228311000,"favorite_count":96,"quote_count":5,"reply_count":20,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981361260852892174","full_text":"The death of SaaS has been overstated. \n\nWhen VCs or industry analysts say that SaaS is dead, they replace the word SaaS with AI agents or some other descriptor for B2B software.\n\nHuman addiction to technology is well known in the consumer space, and the same applies for anything in the enterprise. \n\nEnterprises are addicted to software, and whether the user is human or an agent doesn't matter. At the end of the day, there will always be a top 1% of founders and companies who design their software in a superior way to their competitors, and those will be massive companies where the TAM is even bigger than what was formerly called SaaS.\n\nSoftware is here to stay (with much more powerful capabilities!), which is such an obvious thing to state yet I'm hearing otherwise from my peers.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[9,288],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"6228302","name":"Sheel Mohnot","screen_name":"pitdesi","indices":[0,8]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"pitdesi","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981402156306760016","view_count":414,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761238061000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981381724702724256","full_text":"This is very true. \n\nI think from the outside, folks who hear this mistake the evolving business model with the death of an entire category of software.\n\nOrganizations are becoming even more software-obsessed, and there is a new generation of products that are quickly displacing incumbents. \n\nSoftware is obviously becoming easier to build, but the opportunity for venture capitalists is still massive. \n\nThese things feel so obvious to type, but you'd be surprised at how many conversations I have that revolve around this very topic.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"6228302","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981381724702724256","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[23,113],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"829946137","name":"Itai | dynamic.xyz","screen_name":"turbahn","indices":[0,8]},{"id_str":"1135606000868872192","name":"Fireblocks","screen_name":"FireblocksHQ","indices":[9,22]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"turbahn","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981417837395923151","view_count":264,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761241800000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981393151530254774","full_text":"@turbahn @FireblocksHQ Congrats, have loved working with you and the team the last few years. First class always.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"829946137","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981393151530254774","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-25","value":26,"startTime":1761264000000,"endTime":1761350400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981703025946501274","view_count":70,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761309794000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981703025946501274","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else you'll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should!), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. These are some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy and pursue the deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981703548401520684","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761309918000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981703548401520684","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else you'll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should!), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. These investments will stand out in your data room so you might as well get ahead of those conversations and explain your underwriting logic. \n\nThese are also some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy & pursue the really special deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981704081166016556","view_count":57,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761310045000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981704081166016556","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else you'll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. Those investments will stand out in your data room so you might as well get ahead of those conversations and explain your underwriting logic. \n\nThese are also some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy & pursue the really special deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981709123755610507","view_count":199549,"bookmark_count":256,"created_at":1761311248000,"favorite_count":346,"quote_count":18,"reply_count":23,"retweet_count":25,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else it’ll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. Those investments will stand out in your data room so you might as well get ahead of those conversations and explain your underwriting logic. \n\nThese are also some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy & pursue the really special deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,277],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"811350","name":"Alexis Ohanian 🗽","screen_name":"alexisohanian","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"alexisohanian","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981768701885264380","view_count":4259,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761325452000,"favorite_count":24,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@alexisohanian 100% true. I find that newer managers are more risk-averse to exceptions because they don't want to get fired by their LPs. If you study the history of venture capital, many of the best firms today became franchises in critical moments when they made exceptions.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"811350","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981767253252358505","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,286],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"69619073","name":"Andrew D'Souza","screen_name":"andrewdsouza","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"andrewdsouza","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981777971267743913","view_count":1943,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761327662000,"favorite_count":15,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@andrewdsouza Most LPAs don’t have strict parameters around valuations.\n\nThey more often have definitions around:\n\n- what % of fund can go to a single investment \n\n- recycling % \n\n- deployment period \n\nMost of the time these exceptions aren’t made because GPs are scared of being wrong.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"69619073","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981777001078788107","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,220],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1945812818932170753","name":"Neo","screen_name":"neo3141111","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"neo3141111","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981736892283469930","view_count":1741,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761317868000,"favorite_count":15,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@neo3141111 You could look at a long list of hundreds of GPs who have world class track records that have invested after the pre-seed. A very easy list of people to study would be folks like Peter Thiel, Fred Wilson, etc","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1945812818932170753","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981734983279562826","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,23],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"20397708","name":"Niki Scevak","screen_name":"nikiscevak","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"nikiscevak","lang":"fr","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981860895103025450","view_count":1021,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761347433000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@nikiscevak Raise in SF","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"20397708","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981860111879672307","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,45],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"75409972","name":"Josh Porter","screen_name":"joshdotporter","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"joshdotporter","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981818015080673366","view_count":950,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761337209000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@joshdotporter ty great seeing you this week!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"75409972","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981812251968545118","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,25],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1764321378507931648","name":"Rohan","screen_name":"proxy_vector","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"proxy_vector","lang":"ca","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981757033461481979","view_count":933,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761322670000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@proxy_vector 100 percent","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1764321378507931648","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981748076227301597","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,294],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"175934436","name":"Paul Yacoubian","screen_name":"PaulYacoubian","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"PaulYacoubian","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981706003306746307","view_count":1639,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761310504000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981704081166016556","full_text":"Ha, this is a dangerous game to play because exit value is the model input that tends to be the most hand-wavy. It's really easy to change the exit value from $10B to $20B and have your entire model look like a work of art.\n\nI find that newer investors overestimate exit value on their investment proposals, and that the model assumption is normally tied to a 1x RTF (return the fund) outcome when your winners should math out to outcomes that are far greater like 3x-5x net or above. \n\nGetting the RTF model to make sense is becoming harder to build as entry prices become higher. The math just doesn't math out most of the time. So some just change that exit value to $1T and do the deal :)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"175934436","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981704634734711025","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-26","value":0,"startTime":1761350400000,"endTime":1761436800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,132],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"6781512","name":"Martin Tobias (Pre-Seed VC)","screen_name":"MartinGTobias","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"MartinGTobias","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982144968669135150","view_count":658,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761415161000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@MartinGTobias 100%. Fully believe that an 80/20 core vs. \"breaking the rules\" barbell strategy is the best for an early-stage firm.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"6781512","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1982141432950391154","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-27","value":7,"startTime":1761436800000,"endTime":1761523200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982472740914540939","view_count":880,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1761493308000,"favorite_count":7,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982472740914540939","full_text":"One of the most common questions you’ll get when fundraising for a venture fund is about sourcing. \n\nLPs are ultimately buying into your thesis and your access, so it makes sense that sourcing is one of the first questions.\n\nThe question is hard to answer because sourcing usually comes from many different channels & almost every VC believes their approach is better than their peers’.\n\nI can’t even imagine how confusing it must be for an LP who covers venture as part of a broader portfolio to figure out what’s real and what’s not. They get pitched by hundreds of managers a year, all claiming the same “proprietary deal flow” story.\n\nSo I figured I’d write a quick note on how I think about sourcing.\n\nI like to compare sourcing to multi-channel marketing. You have multiple inputs driving top of funnel, and ideally three or four strategies that create a sourcing flywheel.\n\nIt sometimes feels like LPs are searching for a single channel they can bring to their IC and say, “Look, they have a better sourcing engine.” But relying on one channel is risky. The game changes & so do relationships and competition.\n\nSourcing is never a magic bullet. Despite the debates, I don’t believe anyone has a true proprietary sourcing advantage beyond their reputation.\n\nSpeaking of proprietary networks... \n\nI met with a well-known GP recently who is now investing in a small number of funds & he asked which proprietary networks we have access to. It was a fair question, but I pushed back bc there are no truly proprietary networks in venture anymore.\n\nTake YC, for example. Founders could easily join other accelerators or raise the traditional way, but they choose YC because they trust it will get them further, faster. That trust is the differentiator.\n\nOr look at the handful of firms that have built entire franchises by backing Elon again and again - SpaceX, Tesla, The Boring Company, etc. The sourcing channel is no secret; the access is. And that access comes from relationships earned over decades.\n\nEveryone’s searching for a sourcing “hack.” The truth is, there isn’t one. The only real proprietary network in venture is your reputation. \n\nSo when LPs ask about sourcing, I try to reframe the question. It’s not where we find companies but it’s why the best founders choose to work with us once they’re found. \n\nThat’s the real edge, and it’s built over years, not through a single channel or campaign.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982476724895113555","view_count":17942,"bookmark_count":127,"created_at":1761494258000,"favorite_count":147,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":8,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982476724895113555","full_text":"One of the most common questions you’ll get when fundraising for a venture fund is about sourcing. \n\nLPs are ultimately buying into your thesis and your access, so it makes sense that sourcing is one of the first questions.\n\nThe question is hard to answer because sourcing usually comes from many different channels & almost every VC believes their approach is better than their peers’.\n\nI can’t even imagine how confusing it must be for an LP who covers venture as part of a broader portfolio to figure out what’s real and what’s not. They get pitched by hundreds of managers a year, all claiming the same “proprietary deal flow” story.\n\nSo I figured I’d write a quick note on how I think about sourcing.\n\nI like to compare sourcing to multi-channel marketing. You have multiple inputs driving top of funnel, and ideally three or four strategies that create a sourcing flywheel.\n\nIt sometimes feels like LPs are searching for a single channel they can bring to their IC and say, “Look, they have a better sourcing engine.” But relying on one channel is risky. The game changes & so do relationships and competition.\n\nSourcing is never a magic bullet. Despite the debates, I don’t believe anyone has a true proprietary sourcing advantage beyond their reputation.\n\nSpeaking of proprietary networks... \n\nI met with a well-known GP recently who is now investing in a small number of funds & he asked which proprietary networks we have access to. It was a fair question, but I pushed back bc there are no truly proprietary networks in venture anymore.\n\nTake YC. Founders could easily join other accelerators or raise the traditional way, but they choose YC because they trust it will get them further, faster. YC doesn’t have a proprietary network - it has a brand that founders want to be associated with. They trust YC to be the best Day 1 partner to help them build something valuable.\n\nWhat’s even more interesting is what happens after YC. Because it’s such an efficient marketplace, every venture firm has access to the same company list - it’s one of the most transparent markets in venture. We all know each batch will include a handful of outliers. None of that is proprietary sourcing. The real differentiation is in how firms underwrite conviction early and actually win those deals.\n\nOr look at the handful of firms that have built entire franchises by backing Elon again and again - SpaceX, Tesla, The Boring Company, etc. The sourcing channel is no secret; the access is. And that access comes from relationships earned over decades.\n\nEveryone’s searching for a sourcing “hack.” The truth is, there isn’t one. The only real proprietary network in venture is your reputation. \n\nSo when LPs ask about sourcing, I try to reframe the question. It’s not where we find companies but it’s why the best founders choose to work with us once they’re found. \n\nThat’s the real edge, and it’s built over years, not through a single channel or campaign.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-28","value":0,"startTime":1761523200000,"endTime":1761609600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,133],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982861967221240040","view_count":417,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761586107000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982861967221240040","full_text":"Every airport lounge is like:\n\n“Our menu is thoughtfully curated by award-winning chef _______” with some random I've never heard of.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982863864191713386","view_count":3987,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761586559000,"favorite_count":21,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982863864191713386","full_text":"Every airport lounge is like:\n\n“Our menu is thoughtfully curated by award-winning chef ____” with some random I've never heard of.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-29","value":0,"startTime":1761609600000,"endTime":1761696000000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-30","value":14,"startTime":1761696000000,"endTime":1761782400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983566611404521838","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761754107000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983566611404521838","full_text":"I had a funny conversation with an LP a couple weeks back where he said, \"If I hear another venture capitalist say the words 'prepared mind' again, I will go crazy.\" \n\nThere are many terms like this that get repeated in GP land, especially during AGM season when we’re all bumping into each other often: \n\n • Thesis-driven\n • Thematic \n • Research-driven\n • Prepared mind\n • First principles\n\nThe list goes on. \n\nAs a starting point, if you're an investor, you should absolutely be all these things. \n\nYour job is to develop a point of view on the world, identify a set of problems that you think will become big markets, and find the best founders to solve those problems.\n\nThe concept of a prepared mind has mostly been co-opted for fundraising purposes in venture capital, but the concept is still important to practice and understand. \n\nAt its core, a prepared mind means that you have spent enough time in a given market to know when you meet a founder who is solving the right problem at the right time.\n\nThis is literally the job of an investor, so every single venture capitalist should have a prepared mind. \n\nAnyways, enough on this topic for now. I have a meeting with an LP, and I'm going into it with a prepared mind ;)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983567542862970996","view_count":18,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761754329000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983567542862970996","full_text":"I had a funny conversation with an LP a couple weeks back where he said, \"If I hear another venture capitalist say the words 'prepared mind' again, I will go crazy.\" \n\nThere are many terms like this that get repeated in GP land, especially during AGM season when we’re all bumping into each other often: \n\n • Thesis-driven\n • Thematic \n • Research-driven\n • Prepared mind\n • First principles\n\nThe list goes on. \n\nAs a starting point, if you're an investor, you should absolutely practice all these things, but in 99% of cases this isn’t a differentiated approach. \n\nYour job is to develop a point of view on the world, identify a set of problems that you think will become big markets, and find the best founders to solve those problems.\n\nCall it whatever you want but that’s what great investors do. \n\nThe concept of a prepared mind has mostly been co-opted for fundraising purposes in venture capital, but the concept is still important to practice and understand. \n\nAt its core, a prepared mind means that you have spent enough time in a given market to know when you meet a founder who is solving the right problem at the right time.\n\nThis is literally the job of an investor, so every single venture capitalist should have a prepared mind. \n\nAnyways, enough on this topic for now. I have a meeting with an LP, and I'm going into it with a prepared mind ;)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983568035559419942","view_count":11074,"bookmark_count":34,"created_at":1761754447000,"favorite_count":83,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":10,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983568035559419942","full_text":"I had a fun conversation with an LP a couple weeks back where he said, \"If I hear another venture capitalist say the words 'prepared mind' again, I will go crazy.\" \n\nThere are many terms like this that get repeated in GP land, especially during AGM season when we’re all bumping into each other often: \n\n • Thesis-driven\n • Thematic \n • Research-driven\n • Prepared mind\n • First principles\n\nThe list goes on. \n\nAs a starting point, if you're an investor, you should absolutely practice all these things, but in 99% of cases this isn’t a differentiated approach. \n\nBut yes, your job is to develop a point of view on the world, identify a set of problems that you think will become big markets, and find the best founders to solve those problems.\n\nCall it whatever you want but that’s what great investors do. \n\nThe concept of a prepared mind has mostly been co-opted for fundraising purposes in venture capital, but it’s still important to practice and understand. \n\nAt its core, a prepared mind means that you have spent enough time in a given market to know when you meet a founder who is solving the right problem at the right time.\n\nThis is literally the job of an investor, so every single venture capitalist should have a prepared mind. \n\nAnyways, enough on this topic for now. I have a meeting with an LP, and I'm going into it with a prepared mind ;)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,295],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983615157277487153","view_count":21522,"bookmark_count":56,"created_at":1761765681000,"favorite_count":73,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":13,"retweet_count":8,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983615157277487153","full_text":"Engagement -> Retention -> Monetization used to be the funnel of building products & companies. \n\nMonetization -> Engagement -> Retention is the order that I'm seeing founders prioritize today in the AI age.\n\nI love monetization & spent 5 years of my life waking up every day trying to increase subs/a la carte purchases while leading the revenue team at the top grossing app in the world. \n\nSo you would think I'd agree that monetization is what everybody should spend their time thinking about, but the answer is far more nuanced. \n\nWe hear the words \"Vibe Revenue\" or \"Experimental Revenue\" being thrown out a lot this year in podcasts and newsletters, and those are accurate terms to describe what so much of monetization feels like today. \n\nIn prior cycles, founders had to earn the right to focus on monetization by building a great product first. \n\nA great product can be subjective - we use the words 'taste' and 'craft' a lot, but you can also measure it by looking first at engagement & then studying retention. \n\nThe problem with focusing on monetization too early is that you create a false sense of success, especially if you haven't seen renewal cycles yet. \n\nI am guessing there is a significant percentage of new companies who stare at their engagement and retention data all day long (which might be going up & to the right) & know there are deep flaws in their product. \n\nBut they lean on monetization ($0-$10m in a year!) to make it seem like they've found product-market fit with their own teams & investors. \n\nIt's a lot of fun to make money. I had the most fun ever in my operating career leading revenue teams. It can be addicting at times. \n\nBut the only reason we became the top-grossing app in the world is because we had best-in-class engagement and retention metrics for our category. We earned the right to monetize. \n\nI hope we get back to a world where everything starts with engagement and retention. Then we can talk about revenue.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,96],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1983617932791050265","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/voxOtB2akT","expanded":"https://twitter.com/spenserskates/status/1983617932791050265","display":"x.com/spenserskates/…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983637002928189443","view_count":14244,"bookmark_count":8,"created_at":1761770890000,"favorite_count":69,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":6,"retweet_count":4,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983637002928189443","full_text":"100%. The feature-vs-company blur might be the defining question of this AI cycle for investors.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-31","value":21,"startTime":1761782400000,"endTime":1761868800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,279],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1219566488325017602","name":"Supabase","screen_name":"supabase","indices":[776,785]},{"id_str":"24486938","name":"Nikhil Basu Trivedi","screen_name":"nbt","indices":[2899,2903]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983834443648278593","view_count":148751,"bookmark_count":122,"created_at":1761817963000,"favorite_count":237,"quote_count":6,"reply_count":47,"retweet_count":13,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"I had a conversation with an investor yesterday who claimed there hasn’t been a hit consumer app in over five years.\n\nMy response: ChatGPT is a consumer app.\n\nHe pushed back saying “It started as a research lab, not a consumer company.”\n\nThat convo made me realize how broken our definition of “consumer” has become.\n\nYears ago, I invested in Superhuman after watching my friends (and my Twitter feed) rave about it nonstop. At the time, I was working at a consumer company, yet I never questioned whether Superhuman was “consumer” or not.\n\nPeople love Superhuman for both personal and work use & it’s a daily habit with engagement and retention stronger than most social apps. If that’s not consumer behavior, what is?\n\nThis might sound surprising to some, but I also viewed @supabase from a consumer lens when we invested in the pre-seed, despite it being an open source dev tool. More than the underlying technology, I was most fascinated by the bottoms up nature of how developers were adopting the database and how passionate the early community was about the product.\n\nOpen source projects arguably have stronger communities than most consumer products, and the behaviors are social by nature. They have some of most interesting network effects as every incremental developer makes the project stronger. This aligns perfectly with the classic definition of network effects. \n\nI’ve also always believed that products built by product-first founders, designed for broad, personal use should be considered consumer products. \n\nBut somewhere along the way, we invented the term prosumer, and it’s confused everyone. \n\nIt made these products sound like mini-enterprise tools, which undersells that they’re designed for mass-market behaviors wrapped in productivity.\n\nBy that logic, Superhuman, ChatGPT, Perplexity, and a growing list of “non-consumer” tools are absolutely consumer products.\n\nChatGPT alone has over 750 million weekly active users which is mainstream adoption by any definition. And as it evolves into agentic e-commerce and video gen tools like Sora, its use cases are only getting more personal.\n\nWhy does this matter?\n\nBecause category definitions drive fundraising.\n\nIf you’re a founder pitching a “consumer” product, your pool of potential investors shrinks dramatically. If you just look at how venture firms organize internally, they often literally split their teams by enterprise and consumer, which makes no sense to me. \n\nThe same goes for VCs pitching LPs where consumer is still viewed as a cyclical category. If you send a consumer venture fund deck to a large group of LPs, many categorically wouldn't take your pitch. \n\nIn reality “consumer” today looks nothing like “social, local, mobile” which is how so many people think of consumer. \n\nWork and life are blending, and the products we use every day at home & at work don’t fit cleanly into old boxes.\n\nMy friend @nbt once wrote about the consumerization of the enterprise saying:\n\n“Amazon the largest e-commerce (consumer!) company in the world, offers Amazon Web Services, the largest cloud services (enterprise!) business in the world.\n\nNVIDIA, the largest personal computer graphics (consumer!) company in the world, offers graphics processing units (GPUs) for artificial intelligence applications (enterprise!), and has seen its market cap grow 20X in the past decade since this dual focus.”\n\nThe next generation of breakout apps won’t be defined by where they’re used, but by how deeply they integrate into daily life.\n\nWe’re in the golden age of consumer products. And yes, ChatGPT counts.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,172],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1542601224654127105","name":"Helius","screen_name":"heliuslabs","indices":[11,22]},{"id_str":"1309886201944473600","name":"mert | helius.dev","screen_name":"0xMert_","indices":[74,82]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1983479334947176680","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/LIavHNiSYf","expanded":"https://twitter.com/0xMert_/status/1983479334947176680","display":"x.com/0xMert_/status…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983884450229579777","view_count":11583,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1761829886000,"favorite_count":48,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":5,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983884450229579777","full_text":"We had our @heliuslabs board meeting yesterday. \n\nThe engineering pace of @0xMert_ and the entire team is wild right now.\n\nAnd the roadmap is about to get VERY interesting.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,279],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/uNgGonZr3V","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1983891914207469656/photo/1","id_str":"1983891704093798401","indices":[280,303],"media_key":"3_1983891704093798401","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4gy_mda8AE6LL8.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/uNgGonZr3V","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":217,"y":53,"h":88,"w":88}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":872,"w":766,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":872,"w":766,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":680,"w":597,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":872,"width":766,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":429},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":766},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":765,"h":872},{"x":152,"y":0,"w":436,"h":872},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":872}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1983891704093798401"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/uNgGonZr3V","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1983891914207469656/photo/1","id_str":"1983891704093798401","indices":[280,303],"media_key":"3_1983891704093798401","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4gy_mda8AE6LL8.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/uNgGonZr3V","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":217,"y":53,"h":88,"w":88}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":872,"w":766,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":872,"w":766,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":680,"w":597,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":872,"width":766,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":429},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":766},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":765,"h":872},{"x":152,"y":0,"w":436,"h":872},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":872}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1983891704093798401"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983891914207469656","view_count":5435,"bookmark_count":19,"created_at":1761831665000,"favorite_count":24,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983891914207469656","full_text":"I’ve been reading \"Who Knew\" by Barry Diller this week. \n\nI had the chance to meet Barry twice during my early days at Tinder.\n\nThe first time was three days before Christmas in 2015. I was still new at the company and trying to make a name for myself, so I showed up on December 22nd with just a few others.\n\n“Who’s that guy in the tracksuit?” one of our youngest engineers asked, looking up from his monitor.\n\nI glanced over and saw Barry Diller, owner of IAC and one of Tinder’s biggest shareholders.\n\nI didn’t know it at the time, but Barry (then 75 years old) had a tradition of visiting the Tinder office right before Christmas every year. He’d walk the floor asking questions, genuinely curious about what everyone was building.\n\nI watched him approach one of our engineers and ask, “What are you working on?”\n\nThe engineer started explaining what he was doing in very technical terms, and Barry listened without interrupting. I don’t think the engineer knew who he was because if he did, I’m pretty sure he would’ve been a lot more nervous explaining his code!\n\nA year later, in 2016, I made sure to be in the office those same few days before Christmas. The office was mostly empty again and we had just moved into a much larger space.\n\nSure enough, the guy in the tracksuit showed up again, right on cue. Barry Diller.\n\nHe made his rounds, saying hello and asking the few of us still in the office the same question: “What are you working on?”\n\nOne of the central themes of \"Who Knew\" and of Barry’s career is his obsession with understanding how things work at the most fundamental level:\n\n\"Only if I slowed everything down could I begin to understand all the parts and then try to rearrange them into something coherent. I tend to make things worse in the beginning as I fumble around trying to get to basic truths. Instinct, which I prize almost all else, doesn’t work very well for me in abstruse matters.\n\nI have to get to the core DNA on any matter, its logical essence, before I can add anything of value. This takes a lot of time, often to the irritation of faster thinkers, but when it does crystallize, I can’t be deterred.\n\nI listen with an extra ear, highly attuned to hear a new truth among the cacophony of voices in the room. When I catch that note, no matter what I might have thought before, I’ll change course in a second.\n\nIf I’ve ever had any kind of secret sauce, it’s the ability to hear conflicting, creative ideas bombarded around the room and extract something valuable.\n\nRecently in a meeting, someone complained that I wasn’t being consistent. I replied that I’m never consistent; I’ll turn on a dime if I hear a better truth.” \n- (Barry Diller, Who Knew)\n\nLooking back, I realize that when he asked what we were building, it wasn’t about oversight or management control. It was pure curiosity.\n\nMost leaders want to look smart. Barry wanted to get smart and understand the smallest molecule of what we were building, even on the sleepy days before Christmas.\n\nThe best investors and leaders don’t chase outcomes. They want to understand the wiring underneath.\n\nShow up, ask questions & keep asking until it makes sense. The tracksuit is optional.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[11,161],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"441679284","name":"brett goldstein","screen_name":"thatguybg","indices":[0,10]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"thatguybg","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983843170493382696","view_count":778,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761820044000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@thatguybg Most consumer apps have evolved their business models to subscriptions (same as bottoms up enterprise) and most have tiered pricing at this point too.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"441679284","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983842584788398438","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,293],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"13955342","name":"Trace Vertical Ai Cohen","screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983868789059154119","view_count":518,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761826152000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@Trace_Cohen 100%. On Supabase, they had a cultish community who loved the product before the pre-seed.\n\nAs an investor who does enterprise & consumer like myself, it was helpful to underwrite through a consumer lens.\n\nNow it's a mass market developer product selling to large enterprises.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"13955342","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983867417655750680","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[11,110],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1979921","name":"Josh Elman","screen_name":"joshelman","indices":[0,10]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"joshelman","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983892716288405682","view_count":930,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761831857000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@joshelman 100%. Also fwiw I think Josh Elman is invested in almost all the best consumer apps of his vintage!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1979921","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983892303245885616","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,85],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"35647451","name":"Turner Novak 🍌🧢","screen_name":"TurnerNovak","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"TurnerNovak","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983927717734047759","view_count":667,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761840202000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@TurnerNovak Haha! This was before i got pitched because someone thought I was an LP.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"35647451","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983926158862262518","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,43],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1054947848","name":"Nicole Priel","screen_name":"smallbigtalk","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"smallbigtalk","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983846327105544322","view_count":212,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761820797000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@smallbigtalk would love to read the thesis","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1054947848","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983846102391791901","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,269],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"3014388155","name":"Jeddi","screen_name":"antinertia","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"antinertia","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983857862607827087","view_count":232,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761823547000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@antinertia Prosumer is what they’ve called it historically but those companies tend to get discounted in fundraising from what I’ve seen.\n\nProbably because investors view them as being “in between” both markets. \n\nSo I don’t advise calling yourself a prosumer company.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"3014388155","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983857075298943121","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,32],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"41771957","name":"Ryan Morris","screen_name":"RyanMorris55","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"RyanMorris55","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983893392791925073","view_count":161,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761832018000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@RyanMorris55 Thank you brother!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"41771957","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983893276349415508","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,179],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"2363641","name":"jason yeh","screen_name":"jasonoliver","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"jasonoliver","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983952515470352895","view_count":431,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761846114000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@jasonoliver 100%. And shopping is coming fast with agentic e-commerce. ChatGPT (and its competitors) will end up owning dominant market share across multiple consumer categories.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"2363641","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983951551866831342","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[9,227],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"150388200","name":"Warren Shaeffer","screen_name":"wwshaef","indices":[0,8]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"wwshaef","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983946533159772285","view_count":272,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761844688000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@wwshaef I agree with your definition. Simple is very useful. \n\nMost bottoms-up software has consumer overlap. \n\nProductivity Software is a decent label but tends to devalue companies because there haven’t been many huge exits.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"150388200","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983945638405611746","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-01","value":2,"startTime":1761868800000,"endTime":1761955200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,124],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"39191312","name":"Kirsten Green","screen_name":"kirstenagreen","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"kirstenagreen","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1984113931565330944","view_count":863,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761884598000,"favorite_count":7,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1984107536052842496","full_text":"@kirstenagreen “ChatGPT wasn’t necessarily designed as a consumer product, but consumers claimed it anyway.”\n\nExactly right.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"39191312","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1984107536052842496","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[7,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"22961818","name":"Todd Jackson","screen_name":"tjack","indices":[0,6]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"tjack","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1984358200276382017","view_count":247,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761942837000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@tjack That's a great list, and 100% agree.\n\nConsumer gets anchored on social and things like DTC which is an outdated definition.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"22961818","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1984344313393004585","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-02","value":3,"startTime":1761955200000,"endTime":1762041600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/cf2xeuTten","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1984669264100618636/photo/1","id_str":"1984666463513559043","indices":[277,300],"media_key":"3_1984666463513559043","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4rzoiNbQAMI02X.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/cf2xeuTten","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1067,"w":1600,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":800,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":453,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":1067,"width":1600,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":72,"w":1600,"h":896},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1067,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":936,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":534,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1600,"h":1067}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1984666463513559043"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1718560501825933312","name":"Discipulus Ventures","screen_name":"DiscipulusVent","indices":[38,53]},{"id_str":"1213544133878370304","name":"Jakob Diepenbrock","screen_name":"jakobdiepen","indices":[73,85]},{"id_str":"1718560501825933312","name":"Discipulus Ventures","screen_name":"DiscipulusVent","indices":[38,53]},{"id_str":"1213544133878370304","name":"Jakob Diepenbrock","screen_name":"jakobdiepen","indices":[73,85]},{"id_str":"1333613797907582976","name":"Augustus Doricko","screen_name":"ADoricko","indices":[519,528]},{"id_str":"1716643091137056768","name":"Rainmaker Technology Corporation","screen_name":"RainmakerCorp","indices":[534,548]},{"id_str":"1152136922694766593","name":"Ted Feldmann","screen_name":"teddyfeld","indices":[550,560]},{"id_str":"1843811438332391427","name":"Durin","screen_name":"DurinMining","indices":[566,578]},{"id_str":"1435266698701991936","name":"Isaiah Taylor - making nuclear reactors","screen_name":"isaiah_p_taylor","indices":[610,626]},{"id_str":"1676587706896490496","name":"Valar Atomics","screen_name":"valaratomics","indices":[632,645]},{"id_str":"1213544133878370304","name":"Jakob Diepenbrock","screen_name":"jakobdiepen","indices":[657,669]},{"id_str":"1718560501825933312","name":"Discipulus Ventures","screen_name":"DiscipulusVent","indices":[2816,2831]}]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/cf2xeuTten","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1984669264100618636/photo/1","id_str":"1984666463513559043","indices":[277,300],"media_key":"3_1984666463513559043","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4rzoiNbQAMI02X.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/cf2xeuTten","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1067,"w":1600,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":800,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":453,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":1067,"width":1600,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":72,"w":1600,"h":896},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1067,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":936,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":534,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1600,"h":1067}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1984666463513559043"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1984669264100618636","view_count":11258,"bookmark_count":16,"created_at":1762017000000,"favorite_count":66,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":9,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1984669264100618636","full_text":"I spent Thursday in El Segundo at the @DiscipulusVent Demo Day hosted by @jakobdiepen and team. \n\nAs I walked up to the venue, I immediately saw three Bay Area investors standing in line. \n\nAll of them had flown in from San Francisco for the event, which was great to see. But when I walked through the doors, I realized it wasn’t just a Bay Area thing. The room was packed with investors from all over the country who’d made the same trip. Clearly, something real is happening here.\n\nThe day started with a panel with @ADoricko from @RainmakerCorp, @teddyfeld from @DurinMining (Ch. 1 portfolio company), and @isaiah_p_taylor from @valaratomics along with @jakobdiepen - who gave a quick history lesson on El Segundo’s roots.\n\nBefore World War II, this city was home to Douglas Aircraft, builder of the SBD Dauntless dive bomber and a symbol of American industrial strength. It’s no accident that so many “America First” companies are being built here again. Founders in El Segundo are carrying that legacy forward.\n\nThey showed a map of the current startup ecosystem, which is 55+ companies, and most of them have come into existence since 2023. \n\nI know 55 companies doesn't sound like a huge number, but as you think about the venture capital interest and momentum that El Segundo has, it's easy to imagine that number becoming 100’s and 1000’s in years to come in the city and surrounding areas. \n\nOne of the other most interesting messages was how El Segundo is evolving from being a bit of a meme (which was very intentional to get people to pay attention) to now deploying products in the physical world. \n\nAugustus from Rainmaker had just gotten back from a trip to Oregon where they deployed rain the prior day (I believe he said the cloud seeding operation was 100m+ gallons). \n\nTed from Durin had recently successfully completed his first drilling operation in Nevada. Both companies have done so on modest budgets, and the founders challenged the idea that hard tech is as capital-intensive as most venture capitalists think. \n\nThe demo day featured ten companies spanning a wide range of sectors, all united around one core theme: strengthening America.\n\nThese founders are tackling hard, meaningful problems in areas like energy, autonomous manufacturing, commodity trading, heavy equipment procurement, autonomous farming, and oil and gas.\n\nIt’s worth noting that many of the companies aren’t pure hardware plays. Some are software-first, and others are software-enabled hardware, which, frankly, is what all hardware is becoming.\n\nMy takeaway is that there doesn’t need to be such a hard divide between hardware and software investors. These worlds are starting to blend, and I expect that collaboration to accelerate over the next few years.\n\nWhat’s clear is that El Segundo is here to stay & that @DiscipulusVent is building something special (I’m a proud LP in the fund). The founders here are working on serious problems, and the momentum is real. I’d bet the next demo day will draw an even bigger crowd of investors from across the country.\n\nVery bullish on El Segundo & the next chapter for LA tech.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-03","value":0,"startTime":1762041600000,"endTime":1762128000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,277],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1984846679720542704","view_count":2379,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1762059299000,"favorite_count":21,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":6,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1984846679720542704","full_text":"I grew up in the Bay Area as a Giants fan, but now live in Los Angeles and goes without saying, this city earned a championship this year. Congratulations to the Dodgers.\n\nFor anyone who’s been here, 2025 has been a brutal year for Los Angeles. The January 7th fires marked the start of years of loss and rebuilding. Tonight’s win gives people here something to rally around, something that actually feels good again.\n\nSports have a way of healing pain and heartbreak. Being in L.A. tonight feels like the city finally got a moment of relief.\n\nCongratulations to the Dodgers and to Los Angeles.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-04","value":0,"startTime":1762128000000,"endTime":1762214400000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-05","value":1,"startTime":1762214400000,"endTime":1762300800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,54],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1985639448785174836","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/8rm1V9sGlK","expanded":"https://twitter.com/uialexk/status/1985639448785174836","display":"x.com/uialexk/status…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1985707818230452710","view_count":9198,"bookmark_count":5,"created_at":1762264611000,"favorite_count":26,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1985707818230452710","full_text":"We have entered the large narrow sans serif slop phase","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,291],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1457278696931405828","name":"rosie (🔟/🔟)","screen_name":"therosieum","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"therosieum","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1985840026744189139","view_count":22,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762296132000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1984987750647333350","full_text":"This was a great post.\n\n“The problem is, you can’t build anything meaningful in 18 months. Real infrastructure takes at least 3–5 years. Real product-market fit requires iteration over years, not quarters.”\n\nThat said, I actually think those timelines are compressing.\n\nInfra can now be built in 1–2 years, and PMF can happen in weeks or months for strong applications.\n\nWe just need more original ideas - not the 75th prediction market.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1457278696931405828","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1984987750647333350","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-06","value":0,"startTime":1762300800000,"endTime":1762387200000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-07","value":2,"startTime":1762387200000,"endTime":1762473600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,134],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"768929915844513792","name":"Jamesin Seidel","screen_name":"seidtweets","indices":[123,134]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1986437434213544227","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/XjktPxYNjP","expanded":"https://twitter.com/viraj__acharya/status/1986437434213544227","display":"x.com/viraj__acharya…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986494295663386907","view_count":4971,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762452122000,"favorite_count":9,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986494295663386907","full_text":"Jamesin killed it as always.\n\nThe best venture firms earn the right to be “partners” & not just investors. \n\nWell done @seidtweets","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"44196397","name":"Elon Musk","screen_name":"elonmusk","indices":[64,73]},{"id_str":"44196397","name":"Elon Musk","screen_name":"elonmusk","indices":[64,73]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986557513740001382","view_count":3764,"bookmark_count":4,"created_at":1762467194000,"favorite_count":18,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986557513740001382","full_text":"Tesla AGM right now is all about the robots 🤖\nA few quotes from @elonmusk:\n\nOn scale:\n“Optimus is going to be the biggest product of all time. Bigger than cell phones. Bigger than anything else.”\n\nOn use cases:\n“There will be 3–5 industrial robots for every personal robot.”\n\nOn speed:\n“We’re going to launch the fastest production ramp of any large manufactured product, starting with a million-unit per year production line in Fremont.”\n\nRobots aren’t coming. They’re already here.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-08","value":9,"startTime":1762473600000,"endTime":1762560000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986839703291896042","view_count":9,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762534473000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986839703291896042","full_text":"The “hype video” startup trend will fade, just like every other form of attention arbitrage.\n\nI say that as someone who actually went to film school and loves video. But we’ve reached the point where agencies are producing hype videos for fundraising rounds just to trigger VC FOMO.\n\nVirality has never been easier to manufacture, or shorter-lived.\n\nSpending $25K on a product video might make sense from a valuation or dilution standpoint. But is that really the culture you want to build?\n\nAnd when the investors who FOMO’d into your round realize the growth story doesn’t hold up, how do you think that plays out?\n\nBuild great products. The hype video era is already getting stale.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986841507282964826","view_count":113,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1762534903000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986841507282964826","full_text":"The “hype video” startup trend will fade, just like every other form of attention arbitrage.\n\nI say that as someone who actually went to film school and loves video. But we’ve reached the point where agencies are producing hype videos for fundraising rounds just to trigger VC fomo. \n\nIt’s now part of the fundraising playbook:\n\nMake a pitch deck. Make a hype video. Go a little bit viral. Rinse and repeat.\n\nVirality has never been easier to manufacture, but it’s also never been shorter-lived.\n\nSpending $25K on a product video might make sense from a valuation or dilution standpoint. But is that really the culture you want to build?\n\nAnd when the investors who FOMO’d into your round realize the growth story doesn’t hold up, how do you think that plays out?\n\nBuild great products that solve real problems. The hype video era is already stale.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,275],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986848712908546121","view_count":18228,"bookmark_count":32,"created_at":1762536621000,"favorite_count":92,"quote_count":7,"reply_count":13,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986848712908546121","full_text":"The “hype video” startup trend will fade, just like every other form of attention arbitrage.\n\nI say that as someone who actually went to film school and loves video. But we’ve reached the point where agencies are producing hype videos for fundraising rounds just to create VC fomo. \n\nIt’s now part of the fundraising playbook:\n\nMake a pitch deck. Make a hype video. Go a little bit viral. Rinse & repeat.\n\nVirality has never been easier to manufacture, but it’s also never been shorter-lived. The investors you actually want around for the next decade can tell the difference.\n\nSpending $25K on a product video might make sense from a valuation or dilution standpoint. But is that really the culture you want to build?\n\nAnd when the investors who FOMO’d into your round realize the growth story doesn’t hold up, how do you think that plays out?\n\nBuild great products that solve real problems. The hype video era is already stale.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,215],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986892752286883962","view_count":3190,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1762547121000,"favorite_count":18,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986892752286883962","full_text":"The most important part of “staying in crypto” as an early stage investor is being completely unemotional about the markets.\n\nI feel nothing when our crypto book swings 20–30%.\n\nMaybe that’s unhealthy. But it works.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-09","value":23,"startTime":1762560000000,"endTime":1762646400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,234],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"787810160513200129","name":"Chapter One","screen_name":"chapterone","indices":[50,61]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986969884362940562","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762565511000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986969884362940562","full_text":"Yesterday we locked in two deals that will define @chapterone’s next chapter.\n\nOne: an incubation with a major IP partner (a year in the making).\n\nTwo: a product we’ll launch publicly soon with a major tech platform. \n\nAlways cooking.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,239],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"787810160513200129","name":"Chapter One","screen_name":"chapterone","indices":[50,61]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986970650532327456","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762565693000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986970650532327456","full_text":"Yesterday we locked in two deals that will define @chapterone’s next chapter.\n\nOne: an incubation with a major IP partner (a year in the making).\n\nTwo: a product we’ll launch publicly soon with a well known tech platform. \n\nAlways cooking.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,232],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"787810160513200129","name":"Chapter One","screen_name":"chapterone","indices":[50,61]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986970741779407185","view_count":6055,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1762565715000,"favorite_count":48,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986970741779407185","full_text":"Yesterday we locked in two deals that will define @chapterone’s next chapter.\n\nOne: an incubation with a major IP partner (a year in the making).\n\nTwo: a product we’ll launch publicly soon with a big tech platform. \n\nAlways cooking.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,281],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987236350836494777","view_count":164696,"bookmark_count":200,"created_at":1762629041000,"favorite_count":476,"quote_count":11,"reply_count":30,"retweet_count":21,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1987236350836494777","full_text":"Startup beef is always funny.\n\nYears ago, I worked at a marketplace & we decided Craigslist was our enemy. We built narratives around “beating” them, studied their every move, and even shaped internal goals around taking their users. I’m pretty sure they never thought about us once.\n\nLater, we shifted our obsession to TaskRabbit. Remember Taskrabbit? We spent so much energy trying to outdo them w/ pricing wars, feature debates, endless comparisons. But in the end, neither of us became a breakout, venture-scale success.\n\nThe real competitors were the ones playing a much bigger game: DoorDash, Instacart, Uber. We knew those founders personally, hung out with them at the same SF parties, but never saw them as direct competition. Turns out, they were just playing a different sport entirely.\n\nI see the same thing today in AI and crypto. Startups beefing over tiny overlaps, chasing small wins. Before you pick a fight, make sure you’re actually in a market worth winning. \n\nOtherwise, you’ll wake up every morning obsessed with a game that doesn’t matter.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,54],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"954060455831580672","name":"Molly O’Shea","screen_name":"MollySOShea","indices":[0,12]},{"id_str":"768929915844513792","name":"Jamesin Seidel","screen_name":"seidtweets","indices":[21,32]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"MollySOShea","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987168354260689078","view_count":85,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762612830000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986824069094822264","full_text":"@MollySOShea Talk to @seidtweets - she will have ideas","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"954060455831580672","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1986824069094822264","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,107],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"21706010","name":"Daniel Pearson","screen_name":"danielpearson","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"danielpearson","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987239060021387360","view_count":5021,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762629687000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1987236350836494777","full_text":"@danielpearson Love that Peter Thiel quote and very true.\n\nIf only we had venture funds at that point haha.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"21706010","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987237809229599115","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-10","value":0,"startTime":1762646400000,"endTime":1762732800000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-11","value":0,"startTime":1762732800000,"endTime":1762819200000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-12","value":0,"startTime":1762819200000,"endTime":1762905600000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-13","value":0,"startTime":1762905600000,"endTime":1762992000000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-14","value":23,"startTime":1762992000000,"endTime":1763078400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"4188045073","name":"Jordi Hays","screen_name":"jordihays","indices":[828,838]},{"id_str":"30736937","name":"John Coogan","screen_name":"johncoogan","indices":[841,852]},{"id_str":"1838288550569349120","name":"TBPN","screen_name":"tbpn","indices":[856,861]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988981359013163127","view_count":63,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763045084000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988981359013163127","full_text":"Venture Capital Musical Chairs\n\nWhen I first got into venture capital, I assumed that General Partners stayed at firms for most of their careers. From the outside, venture capital shops looked like stable institutions. At the very least, they felt more permanent than the startups they backed.\n\nThat assumption was dead wrong.\n\nBack then, I was at Tinder and a scout for Index Ventures. It was an awesome experience, but I definitely underestimated how turbulent things can be inside other venture firms I was co-investing with and getting to know more closely.\n\nThat turbulence has only accelerated in the last few years. Every week, I see partners leaving, firms reshaping their strategies, and LP relationships shifting. \n\nIt feels like watching ESPN at this point waiting for Shams to break some trade news. Luckily we have @jordihays & @johncoogan at @tbpn.\n\nFor founders, venture capital musical chairs feels like something happening on the other side of the table. You sense the industry shifting, but you’re busy building your company. Whatever chaos is unfolding inside venture firms isn’t exactly top of mind.\n\nBut you should be thinking about it a lot more. And here's why. \n\nWhen you raise from a venture firm, you don’t really raise from the firm. You raise from a specific partner. You take their calls, you trust their judgment, and you build your relationship around them. They’re the one who sits on your board, texts you late at night, and ideally, fights for you when things get tough. \n\nWhen they leave, you lose that advocate. Suddenly, the person who cared most about your survival inside the partnership is gone.\n\nIn today’s venture world, that partner may not even be around by the time your next fundraise rolls around. \n\nI was talking to a former partner at a multi-stage fund yesterday, and she told me that the average partner at a venture firm sticks around for 7 years. And when they leave, the implications for you are important to understand.\n\nWhat often happens next is that you become an “adopted company.” Other partners don’t rush to claim you, because supporting you doesn’t count toward their scoreboard. Venture is a business built on attribution, and if they didn’t source or lead your deal, the incentive to spend time helping you is low. You end up feeling like the kid at the dinner table nobody wants to introduce.\n\nBoard dynamics only make the problem worse. If your original partner leaves, their seat might be reassigned to someone who barely knows your business, or worse, someone who doesn’t care to. \n\nNow you’re wasting cycles re-educating a new person who has little emotional or financial attachment to your success. Instead of focusing on building, you’re back at square one, explaining the basics to someone who isn’t invested in your story.\n\nAnd then there’s the signaling risk. Other investors notice when your champion departs their firm. LPs notice too. Even if your company is performing well, your life will change.\n\n“Is the firm still supporting you?” You’ll get asked this question dozens of times by other investors, potential hires, and media. You can explain this pretty easily, but it’s just one of those annoying questions that you’ll have to talk about for many years to come.\n\nThis isn’t meant to be morbid. It’s a reminder to choose your partners carefully and understand their career trajectory and standing inside the firm.\n\nFundraising is chaotic right now. Bubble or not, founders and investors are speed-dating their way into big rounds, and everyone’s expected to build trust on a timeline that would be insane in any normal business relationship.\n\nMy best advice is don’t assume the partner you pick will be there forever. Get to know the rest of the partnership, understand how they think, and make sure you actually believe in the firm’s culture and ethos.\n\nA friend put it well yesterday: the only person who’s almost certainly sticking around is the founder of the firm. That’s the longest term partner you're getting into business with. You may not get much access to the founder(s) of a firm, but it’s still worth knowing their story, their reputation, and how they’ve shown up for founders over time.\n\nIf your deal sponsor is gone in a few years, would you still be proud to call that firm your investor? \n\nIf the answer is yes, great, but make sure you’re diligencing them as hard as they’re diligencing you.\n\nVenture Capital Musical Chairs isn’t stopping anytime soon. If anything, it will get much spicier as we understand which partners took massive AI swings that will generate many billions for their firms, or leave their firms holding the bag.\n\nIn either case, your partner still might leave. \n\nInvestors who crushed this AI wave might use that momentum to spin out and start their own firms. And the ones who didn’t get big wins in this cycle might be looking for new jobs soon for reasons we all understand.\n\nAs a founder, choose your partners carefully and make damn sure you’re not the last one left standing when the music stops. \n\nFin.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"4188045073","name":"Jordi Hays","screen_name":"jordihays","indices":[859,869]},{"id_str":"30736937","name":"John Coogan","screen_name":"johncoogan","indices":[872,883]},{"id_str":"1838288550569349120","name":"TBPN","screen_name":"tbpn","indices":[887,892]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988983199872004228","view_count":66136,"bookmark_count":126,"created_at":1763045523000,"favorite_count":165,"quote_count":6,"reply_count":19,"retweet_count":23,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"Venture Capital Musical Chairs (And Why Founders Should Care)\n\nWhen I first got into venture capital, I assumed that General Partners stayed at firms for most of their careers. From the outside, venture capital shops looked like stable institutions. At the very least, they felt more permanent than the startups they backed.\n\nThat assumption was dead wrong.\n\nBack then, I was at Tinder and a scout for Index Ventures. It was an awesome experience, but I definitely underestimated how turbulent things can be inside other venture firms I was co-investing with and getting to know more closely.\n\nThat turbulence has only accelerated in the last few years. Every week, I see partners leaving, firms reshaping their strategies, and LP relationships shifting. \n\nIt feels like watching ESPN at this point waiting for Shams to break some trade news. Luckily we have @jordihays & @johncoogan at @tbpn.\n\nFor founders, venture capital musical chairs feels like something happening on the other side of the table. You sense the industry shifting, but you’re busy building your company. Whatever chaos is unfolding inside venture firms isn’t exactly top of mind.\n\nBut you should be thinking about it a lot more. And here's why. \n\nWhen you raise from a venture firm, you don’t really raise from the firm. You raise from a specific partner. You take their calls, you trust their judgment, and you build your relationship around them. They’re the one who sits on your board, texts you late at night, and ideally, fights for you when things get tough. \n\nWhen they leave, you lose that advocate. Suddenly, the person who cared most about your survival inside the partnership is gone.\n\nIn today’s venture world, that partner may not even be around by the time your next fundraise rolls around. \n\nI was talking to a former partner at a multi-stage fund yesterday, and she told me that the average partner at a venture firm sticks around for 7 years. And when they leave, the implications for you are important to understand.\n\nWhat often happens next is that you become an “adopted company.” Other partners don’t rush to claim you, because supporting you doesn’t count toward their scoreboard. Venture is a business built on attribution, and if they didn’t source or lead your deal, the incentive to spend time helping you is low.\n\nBoard dynamics only make the problem worse. If your original partner leaves, their seat might be reassigned to someone who barely knows your business, or worse, someone who doesn’t care to. \n\nNow you’re wasting cycles re-educating a new person who has little emotional or financial attachment to your success. Instead of focusing on building, you’re back at square one, explaining the basics to someone who isn’t invested in your story.\n\nAnd then there’s the signaling risk. Other investors notice when your champion departs their firm. LPs notice too. Even if your company is performing well, your life will change.\n\n“Is the firm still supporting you?” You’ll get asked this question dozens of times by other investors, potential hires, and media. You can explain this pretty easily, but it’s just one of those annoying questions that you’ll have to talk about for many years to come.\n\nThis isn’t meant to be morbid. It’s a reminder to choose your partners carefully and understand their career trajectory and standing inside the firm.\n\nFundraising is chaotic right now. Bubble or not, founders and investors are speed-dating their way into big rounds, and everyone’s expected to build trust on a timeline that would be insane in any normal business relationship.\n\nMy best advice is don’t assume the partner you pick will be there forever. Get to know the rest of the partnership, understand how they think, and make sure you actually believe in the firm’s culture and ethos.\n\nA friend put it well yesterday: the only person who’s almost certainly sticking around is the founder of the firm. That’s the longest term partner you're getting into business with. You may not get much access to the founder(s) of a firm, but it’s still worth knowing their story, their reputation, and how they’ve shown up for founders over time.\n\nVenture Capital Musical Chairs isn’t stopping anytime soon. If anything, it will get much spicier as we understand which partners took massive AI swings that will generate many billions for their firms, or leave their firms holding the bag.\n\nIn either case, your partner still might leave. \n\nInvestors who crushed this AI wave might use that momentum to spin out and start their own firms. And the ones who didn’t get big wins in this cycle might be looking for new jobs soon for reasons we all understand.\n\nAs a founder, choose your partners carefully and make damn sure you’re not the last one left standing when the music stops. \n\nFin.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,75],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"35647451","name":"Turner Novak 🍌🧢","screen_name":"TurnerNovak","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"TurnerNovak","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988990321540399109","view_count":1308,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763047220000,"favorite_count":4,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"@TurnerNovak Very effective Sparknotes version - I need you to be my editor","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"35647451","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1988989896195756499","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-15","value":10,"startTime":1763078400000,"endTime":1763164800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,87],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1989156238018683215","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/Ssm5bH6JtM","expanded":"https://twitter.com/rohanpaul_ai/status/1989156238018683215","display":"x.com/rohanpaul_ai/s…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989213951863955480","view_count":2628,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1763100538000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989213951863955480","full_text":"Solana FDV: $80B (feels cheap)\nA 1-year-old AI startup: $50B\n\nWelcome to pure-vibes VC.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,121],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rsKQuQih8o","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1989184813312680086/photo/1","id_str":"1989184305332174848","indices":[122,145],"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5sAligbQAAxQo3.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rsKQuQih8o","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":977,"y":403,"h":520,"w":520},{"x":1347,"y":59,"h":635,"w":635},{"x":507,"y":376,"h":589,"w":589}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":572,"y":236,"h":304,"w":304},{"x":789,"y":35,"h":372,"w":372},{"x":297,"y":220,"h":345,"w":345}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":324,"y":134,"h":172,"w":172},{"x":447,"y":19,"h":211,"w":211},{"x":168,"y":124,"h":195,"w":195}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":1833,"y":757,"h":975,"w":975},{"x":2527,"y":112,"h":1192,"w":1192},{"x":952,"y":705,"h":1106,"w":1106}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1152,"w":2048,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":675,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":2160,"width":3840,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":10,"w":3840,"h":2150},{"x":552,"y":0,"w":2160,"h":2160},{"x":685,"y":0,"w":1895,"h":2160},{"x":1092,"y":0,"w":1080,"h":2160},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":3840,"h":2160}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[{"display_url":"x.com/OpenAI/status/…","expanded_url":"https://x.com/OpenAI/status/1989138776585851038","url":"https://t.co/5gFtHQYNiu","indices":[98,121]}],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rsKQuQih8o","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1989184813312680086/photo/1","id_str":"1989184305332174848","indices":[122,145],"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5sAligbQAAxQo3.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rsKQuQih8o","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":977,"y":403,"h":520,"w":520},{"x":1347,"y":59,"h":635,"w":635},{"x":507,"y":376,"h":589,"w":589}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":572,"y":236,"h":304,"w":304},{"x":789,"y":35,"h":372,"w":372},{"x":297,"y":220,"h":345,"w":345}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":324,"y":134,"h":172,"w":172},{"x":447,"y":19,"h":211,"w":211},{"x":168,"y":124,"h":195,"w":195}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":1833,"y":757,"h":975,"w":975},{"x":2527,"y":112,"h":1192,"w":1192},{"x":952,"y":705,"h":1106,"w":1106}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1152,"w":2048,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":675,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":2160,"width":3840,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":10,"w":3840,"h":2150},{"x":552,"y":0,"w":2160,"h":2160},{"x":685,"y":0,"w":1895,"h":2160},{"x":1092,"y":0,"w":1080,"h":2160},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":3840,"h":2160}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"quoted_status_id_str":"1983834443648278593","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/t56Kl9NM7f","expanded":"https://twitter.com/jmj/status/1983834443648278593","display":"x.com/jmj/status/198…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989184813312680086","view_count":19239,"bookmark_count":23,"created_at":1763093591000,"favorite_count":52,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989184813312680086","full_text":"ChatGPT now has group chats.\n\nCongrats to the newest social network on the internet. Case closed.\nhttps://t.co/5gFtHQYNiu https://t.co/rsKQuQih8o","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,282],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989423657438121993","view_count":21867,"bookmark_count":60,"created_at":1763150536000,"favorite_count":102,"quote_count":5,"reply_count":24,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"Vibe Investing Is the New Vibe Coding\n\nThe institutional memory of what happened in 2020–2022 is basically gone. It’s wild how quickly we as an industry forgot.\n\nI have a theory that our brains now process trauma & even financial bubbles in smaller and smaller increments. We’re living through the compression of emotional memory. Our tech industry systems take in stimuli that are too frequent, too loud, and too fast, so nothing sticks. \n\nI dug into my theory more (which you’ve likely felt intuitively but maybe haven’t articulated) and it turns out there’s actually a concept called “emotional amnesia\" which is a feeling numb or disconnected about what is happening around you.\n\nI won’t bore you with the academic details, but my takeaway as applied to venture capital is that the half-life on lessons learned (and in most businesses) is collapsing at the same pace you scroll a TikTok feed. We breeze past a $3B seed round at a $30B valuation like it’s a TMZ clip. \n\nAs a first-time manager who launched a fund in 2019, the 2020–2022 bubble left a permanent imprint on me. I’ll never forget what that period felt like. \n\nThe velocity, FOMO & the total detachment from fundamentals was intoxicating for everyone. Your seed check jumps from a $10M post to a $150M post in 30 days. Congrats… I guess? Because now you have to decide whether to follow on. And it’s a tier-one lead. What do you do?\n\nThat environment pushed every firm, including the great ones, into some objectively terrible decisions.\n\nAnd when I look at venture today, the industry barely resembles what it was even six years ago. We used to joke about “vibe investing” as the exception. The charismatic founder with cult-leader energy, the weird but magnetic pitch, the occasional “let’s take a flyer and see what happens.” Now it’s the norm. \n\nAura and an AI narrative = 10 term sheets.\n\nThere are insanely talented, credible operators building world-changing companies. But a $50B valuation for a pre-product seed round? Is that even venture capital? Call it whatever you want (and honestly we probably need a new category name) because it’s a completely different industry at this point.\n\nThe biggest takeaway is that at almost every stage from seed, growth, crossover, even public markets, we’re operating on vibes. Maybe I’m slowly becoming a boomer for even saying this.\n\nBut it's narrative over numbers, momentum over diligence, social proof over actual proof.\n\nCritics dunk on “vibe coding” as a Gen Z builder phenomenon that creates technical slop, but venture capital has built its own version: vibe investing.\n\nDrop a pitch deck into ChatGPT, run a Deep Research query, and boom “I don’t even need analysts anymore!” You skim the output in five minutes between pitch calls and try to stitch together a market thesis. Meanwhile the founder is a fundraising machine and every other firm is running the exact same Deep Research report you are.\n\nYou better move fast.\n\nSo you hop into Granola, grab one smart-sounding insight from your call, and paste it into Slack like you discovered fire. Your partners light up. Then you mention the founder already has multiple term sheets and suddenly everyone’s ready to clear their calendars.\n\nWe won’t know what turns into investment slop for a few years, but vibe-driven deals are definitely going to push that percentage way up. \n\nMaybe that’s fine & maybe this time really is different, and the outliers will paper over all the vibe-investing slop. But if you’re an emerging manager or running a concentrated portfolio, that’s a dangerous way to live. You don’t get to spray-and-pray your way out of vibes.\n\nRight now the vibes are insanely strong. It’s exciting. I feel just as fired up as everyone else and that energy is exactly why venture and technology keep marching forward.\n\nBut if I had one message today it would be this. \n\nGOOD LUCK AVOIDING THE SLOP.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,14],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"25232333","name":"Pat McGovern","screen_name":"pw_mcgovern","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"pw_mcgovern","lang":"qme","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989437186396332277","view_count":90,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763153761000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@pw_mcgovern 🔥","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"25232333","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989435465892606039","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,47],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"180030016","name":"davidfeiock","screen_name":"davidfeiock","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"davidfeiock","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989439081856864670","view_count":95,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763154213000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@davidfeiock Doing my best to please the people","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"180030016","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989438684970840404","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[16,33],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"90144647","name":"Viraj Acharya","screen_name":"Viraj__Acharya","indices":[0,15]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Viraj__Acharya","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989474730047672821","view_count":55,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763162712000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@Viraj__Acharya Haha yes happy to","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"90144647","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989469687676350678","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,283],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"729253848787738624","name":"george beall","screen_name":"GeorgePBeall","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"GeorgePBeall","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989425758935363750","view_count":254,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763151037000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@GeorgePBeall There will be a mean reversion as DPI gets realized. There is a category land grab right now, and the opportunity is massive, so capital is piling in. Long-term bullish on AI, but at some point, early stage investors will need to get back to some version of discipline.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"729253848787738624","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989425239139520664","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,292],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"13955342","name":"Trace Vertical Ai Cohen","screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989438237971300635","view_count":292,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1763154012000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"Agreed. I think the biggest mistake people will make is not knowing what game they're playing. An emerging manager with a smaller fund trying to execute on the multi-stage strategy is problematic. You have windows of opportunity where you can do things that are outside your core strategy, and putting guard rails on that bucket is hugely important. It's also really easy to let the guard rails down.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"13955342","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989437434082595107","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[11,103],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"192784466","name":"Jeff Richards","screen_name":"jrichlive","indices":[0,10]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"jrichlive","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989351865327472987","view_count":302,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763133419000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"@jrichlive Wild - will check back on this tweet in a few years so you can tell me about the 4th and 5th","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"192784466","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989350740587077902","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,37],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1449604717038825477","name":"Lucas Dickey","screen_name":"LucasDickey4","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"LucasDickey4","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989169728783524119","view_count":446,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763089994000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"@LucasDickey4 This is a great summary","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1449604717038825477","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989167000841777461","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-16","value":0,"startTime":1763164800000,"endTime":1763251200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[16,77],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1950463458648150016","name":"Stanley Wei","screen_name":"StanleyWei4748","indices":[0,15]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"StanleyWei4748","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989713118495490161","view_count":27,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763219549000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@StanleyWei4748 They were supposed to be the roaring 20s and we got this haha","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1950463458648150016","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989711120332910993","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[7,282],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"6874252","name":"Indus Khaitan","screen_name":"1ndus","indices":[0,6]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"1ndus","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989565798088937553","view_count":64,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763184425000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"There are great firms with more than four to five partners. I would just figure out who you're getting into business with and what that partners is standing at the firm. How long have they been there? Have they made any great investments yet? What's their career history look like? Are they someone who will bounce around a lot? Etc.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"6874252","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989558109883519352","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-17","value":0,"startTime":1763251200000,"endTime":1763337600000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-18","value":12,"startTime":1763337600000,"endTime":1763424000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,279],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990480739989868627","view_count":1894,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1763402564000,"favorite_count":16,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990480739989868627","full_text":"When vibe coding started getting popular, some people said, “we won’t need designers anymore, you can just design things yourself.” \n\nThe opposite happened.\n\nI talked to a well respected designer friend today who said freelance rates are climbing, and hiring a full-time designer in the U.S. now starts at $150K.\n\nHe shared a framing I liked:\n\n\"Teams understand the models are going to make everyone 7/10 designers. Which does eliminate the need for low end of the market. But if you can help someone ship 9 or 10/10 design you’ve never been more valuable because it’s now one of the core means of differentiation.\"\n\nAI made bad design easier. It made great design harder & more expensive.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,279],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990491897375436825","view_count":16659,"bookmark_count":48,"created_at":1763405224000,"favorite_count":101,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":16,"retweet_count":9,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990491897375436825","full_text":"When vibe coding started getting popular, some people said, “we won’t need designers anymore, you can just design things yourself.” \n\nThe opposite happened.\n\nI talked to a well respected designer friend today who said freelance design rates are getting more expensive, and hiring a full-time designer in the U.S. now starts at $150K.\n\nHe shared a framing I liked:\n\n\"Teams understand the models are going to make everyone 7/10 designers. Which does eliminate the need for low end of the market. But if you can help someone ship 9 or 10/10 design you’ve never been more valuable because it’s now one of the core means of differentiation.\"\n\nAI made bad design easier. It also made great design harder & more expensive.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-19","value":14,"startTime":1763424000000,"endTime":1763510400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,146],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/CzdN0xANyq","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1990572770015809922/photo/1","id_str":"1990571616619933696","indices":[147,170],"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5_uVrybMAAQ8U6.png","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/CzdN0xANyq","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":609,"width":568,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":318},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":568},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":534,"h":609},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":305,"h":609},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":609}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/CzdN0xANyq","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1990572770015809922/photo/1","id_str":"1990571616619933696","indices":[147,170],"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5_uVrybMAAQ8U6.png","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/CzdN0xANyq","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":609,"width":568,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":318},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":568},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":534,"h":609},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":305,"h":609},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":609}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990572770015809922","view_count":5620,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1763424506000,"favorite_count":27,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990572770015809922","full_text":"LP inbox right now: a flood of GPs explaining why they didn’t see the Bezos AI deal.\n\n\"Our sourcing engine is being rebuilt from first principles\" https://t.co/CzdN0xANyq","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1990841773799682300","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/ivg0YeXKEN","expanded":"https://twitter.com/yrechtman/status/1990841773799682300","display":"x.com/yrechtman/stat…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990855280654233609","view_count":23462,"bookmark_count":70,"created_at":1763491861000,"favorite_count":79,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":7,"retweet_count":4,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990855280654233609","full_text":"One question that every seed investor should be asking themselves right now is whether they should be focusing more on early traction rounds, as opposed to pre-product investing. \n\nIn the past couple months, we've met a few teams raising rounds at $30M-$40M post-valuation who have real traction ($1-$4m ARR). \n\nAs a seed investor, would you rather invest in one of these rounds at $40m post or a pre-product seed round that calls itself an AI company at a $20M-$30M post? They're basically priced the same. \n\nSome of the early tractions teams call these rounds \"seed extensions,\" and others stretch it to a Series A label. \n\nFor whatever reason, they haven't been treated as \"hot companies\" by the Series A market, but they're building very solid businesses that are growing well. \n\nI haven't come up with an exact terminology for these companies. They're generally not pure-play AI deals, but are often utilizing AI in interesting ways. The headline on the deck doesn't read AI deal, but they're real businesses. \n\nFor the sake of this essay, let's just call them \"AI tweeners\". \n\nThere is a temptation to invest in what is new (ie the brand new AI company raising at $20-$30m post) because you're investing in a cool story & get to help bring a new company to market & call yourself the lead. \n\nBut maybe the $40m \"AI tweener\" is a better bet. By paying a slight premium, you invest in a company that's figured a lot out, has revenue, and is building in a category that likely has less competition. \n\nThe challenge with investing in the $40M post is that you likely called yourself a seed firm to all of your limited partners, so your entry price is going to look like what has historically been called a Series A. Is this strategy drift, or is it being a good investor? \n\nIf your goal is to build the highest performing portfolio, investing in \"AI tweeners\" is the part of market that is likely most undervalued right now. \n\nSo maybe you should stop calling yourself a seed fund & invest in early traction companies while the rest of the market is obsessed with finding the next hot pre-product seed deal. \n\nJust some thoughts.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"3393185261","name":"yoni rechtman","screen_name":"yrechtman","indices":[2202,2212]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990857909635518465","view_count":9799,"bookmark_count":47,"created_at":1763492488000,"favorite_count":73,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":8,"retweet_count":5,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990857909635518465","full_text":"One question that every seed investor should be asking themselves right now is whether they should be focusing more on early traction rounds, as opposed to pre-product investing. \n\nIn the past couple months, we've met a few teams raising rounds at $30M-$40M post-valuation who have real traction ($1-$4m ARR). \n\nAs a seed investor, would you rather invest in one of these rounds at $40m post or a pre-product seed round that calls itself an AI company at a $20M-$30M post? They're basically priced the same. \n\nSome of the early tractions teams call these rounds \"seed extensions,\" and others stretch it to a Series A label. \n\nFor whatever reason, they haven't been treated as \"hot companies\" by the Series A market, but they're building very solid businesses that are growing well. \n\nI haven't come up with an exact terminology for these companies. They're generally not pure-play AI deals, but are often utilizing AI in interesting ways. The headline on the deck doesn't read AI deal, but they're real businesses. \n\nFor the sake of this essay, let's just call them \"AI tweeners\". \n\nThere is a temptation to invest in what is new (ie the brand new AI company raising at $20-$30m post) because you're investing in a cool story & get to help bring a new company to market & call yourself the lead. \n\nBut maybe the $40m \"AI tweener\" is a better bet. By paying a slight premium, you invest in a company that's figured a lot out, has revenue, and is building in a category that likely has less competition. \n\nThe challenge with investing in the $40M post is that you likely called yourself a seed firm to all of your limited partners, so your entry price is going to look like what has historically been called a Series A. Is this strategy drift, or is it being a good investor? \n\nIf your goal is to build the highest performing portfolio, investing in \"AI tweeners\" is the part of market that is likely most undervalued right now. \n\nSo maybe you should stop calling yourself a seed fund & invest in early traction companies while the rest of the market is obsessed with finding the next hot pre-product seed deal. \n\nJust some thoughts.\n\nOriginally written as a response to a tweet by @yrechtman, but creating a separate essay so more people can hopefully read it.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990865081354334636","view_count":7759,"bookmark_count":10,"created_at":1763494198000,"favorite_count":68,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":17,"retweet_count":4,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990865081354334636","full_text":"I am noticing a lot of apathy and despair in the crypto community right now. This is funny to me because we should all be basking in the opportunity to actually build valuable applications and companies right now.\n\nOne of the most common complaints in prior cycles was that crypto founders didn't have a fighting chance to run the experiments that they wanted to test due to regulatory battles. \n\nIn the United States, we have a very supportive regulatory environment right now, and it is possible to be a U.S. crypto founder in categories like Defi which were previously very dicey. \n\nBut for some reason, the mood amongst founders and investors is especially solemn right now.\n\nMy take is that building products and companies that people care about is incredibly hard, especially with AI dominating the headlines. \n\nIt was easy to use regulatory constraints as an excuse in prior cycles, and now that we no longer have that issue, we have to actually go build products that people use every day & care about. \n\nAnd these products can't be another L1/L2 or some abstract technical infrastructure that increases TPS or makes blockchains cheaper. We already have that. \n\nInfra was a convenient area for investors and founders to fund and build because you could TGE and get rich & punt on building applications. \n\nBut today, you have to go build applications that people care about. That's really it. There's almost nothing else to do on the infrastructure side to run the experiments that will validate how big crypto can be. \n\nThe industry needs to stop feeling sorry for itself and go prove that the many, many billions of dollars that have gone to the industry were building towards something meaningful. Stablecoins, payments, etc. are all obvious places to build real consumer value. \n\nNow is the time.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-20","value":1,"startTime":1763510400000,"endTime":1763596800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,228],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1915059354153160706","name":"moneydevkit","screen_name":"money_dev_kit","indices":[42,56]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1991151978953789614","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/EAfA4urbR2","expanded":"https://twitter.com/nickslaney/status/1991151978953789614","display":"x.com/nickslaney/sta…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1991154186755674513","view_count":171,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763563126000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1991154186755674513","full_text":"We’re thrilled to lead the seed round for @money_dev_kit. \n\nThey broke a world record today on the same day they announced the fundraise.\n\nNow the fastest way for anyone on earth to add payments. Builders are going to love this.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-21","value":0,"startTime":1763596800000,"endTime":1763683200000,"tweets":[]}],"nlikes":[{"label":"2025-10-22","value":29817,"startTime":1761004800000,"endTime":1761091200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":true,"display_text_range":[0,270],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rPx7ztdMGQ","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1980504752829132945/photo/1","id_str":"1980501236362153984","indices":[271,294],"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G3wnYZ6WkAAmnCh.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rPx7ztdMGQ","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":12,"y":110,"h":30,"w":30}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":422,"width":750,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":420},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":422,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":370,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":211,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":422}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rPx7ztdMGQ","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1980504752829132945/photo/1","id_str":"1980501236362153984","indices":[271,294],"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G3wnYZ6WkAAmnCh.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rPx7ztdMGQ","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":12,"y":110,"h":30,"w":30}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":422,"width":750,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":420},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":422,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":370,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":211,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":422}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980504752829132945","view_count":1096466,"bookmark_count":2205,"created_at":1761024103000,"favorite_count":28909,"quote_count":298,"reply_count":660,"retweet_count":3461,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"Everyone talks about AI slop. \nNo one talks about PE (private equity) slop.\n\n- restaurants that lost their soul\n- medical practices that feel like assembly lines\n- apartment buildings designed by an Excel formula\n\nThe algorithm didn’t kill culture. The margin model did. https://t.co/rPx7ztdMGQ","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,60],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"932630991298007041","name":"litquidity","screen_name":"litcapital","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"litcapital","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980648813561008268","view_count":24455,"bookmark_count":5,"created_at":1761058450000,"favorite_count":227,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@litcapital haha that’s what I’m saying, impossible to unsee","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"932630991298007041","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980647342371213594","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,51],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1301314271989518336","name":"illiquid","screen_name":"lefttailguy","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"lefttailguy","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980629841155330197","view_count":19708,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761053927000,"favorite_count":277,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@lefttailguy artisanal content, thank you very much","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1301314271989518336","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980628461417804114","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,161],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"156765498","name":"Michael Williams","screen_name":"mxwilliams","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"mxwilliams","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980633611884970415","view_count":14727,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761054826000,"favorite_count":149,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":16,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@mxwilliams maybe they would, most ppl hate going to the dentist for a variety of reasons.\n\n5% feels for a better experience is something ppl would prob pay for.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"156765498","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980632925075894309","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,134],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"14117767","name":"Jonas 🦩","screen_name":"jonaslamis","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"jonaslamis","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980506004510085379","view_count":17431,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761024402000,"favorite_count":126,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@jonaslamis You might be right. Maybe AI slop is just the tipping point that’s making us realize how sloppy the world has always been.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"14117767","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980505576590447033","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[17,63],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1081596786073128960","name":"Old white guy","screen_name":"obrecht_michael","indices":[0,16]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"obrecht_michael","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980676318359666791","view_count":11003,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1761065008000,"favorite_count":129,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@obrecht_michael thanks for sharing, not an easy thing to solve","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1081596786073128960","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980674670094373173","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-23","value":210,"startTime":1761091200000,"endTime":1761177600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,281],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981026514079805470","view_count":25016,"bookmark_count":69,"created_at":1761148501000,"favorite_count":210,"quote_count":3,"reply_count":26,"retweet_count":24,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981026514079805470","full_text":"There is a very big difference between running a venture fund and building a venture firm. \n\nI get a lot of aspiring venture capitalists who ask me about starting their own firm, and the quick thing I tell them is that they have to love company building & operations as much as they love investing. \n\nAt the end of the day, so much of your time is spent on fundraising, recruiting, and back office. You have to really love that stuff early on (or it least be good at it) when nobody is there to help you out.\n\nIf you don’t love the non-investing stuff or have enough self-awareness to know you're not good at it, you should definitely consider joining a platform. I have friends who are amazingly talented who have decided they only want to focus on investing, and they are very happy & many make a ton of money too. \n\nEasy to run a fund. Much harder to build a firm.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,237],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"935658795098832896","name":"Ibrahim S.","screen_name":"IbrahimS15","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"IbrahimS15","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980849065622683933","view_count":122,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761106194000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980666971650945285","full_text":"@IbrahimS15 This is the single best feedback from an interviewer that I've ever seen. I know it's hard to get past the rejection and the what-ifs of the opportunity, but use this as motivation, and you will do great things. Best of luck.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"935658795098832896","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980666971650945285","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-24","value":99,"startTime":1761177600000,"endTime":1761264000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981361260852892174","view_count":56764,"bookmark_count":42,"created_at":1761228311000,"favorite_count":96,"quote_count":5,"reply_count":20,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981361260852892174","full_text":"The death of SaaS has been overstated. \n\nWhen VCs or industry analysts say that SaaS is dead, they replace the word SaaS with AI agents or some other descriptor for B2B software.\n\nHuman addiction to technology is well known in the consumer space, and the same applies for anything in the enterprise. \n\nEnterprises are addicted to software, and whether the user is human or an agent doesn't matter. At the end of the day, there will always be a top 1% of founders and companies who design their software in a superior way to their competitors, and those will be massive companies where the TAM is even bigger than what was formerly called SaaS.\n\nSoftware is here to stay (with much more powerful capabilities!), which is such an obvious thing to state yet I'm hearing otherwise from my peers.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[9,288],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"6228302","name":"Sheel Mohnot","screen_name":"pitdesi","indices":[0,8]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"pitdesi","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981402156306760016","view_count":414,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761238061000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981381724702724256","full_text":"This is very true. \n\nI think from the outside, folks who hear this mistake the evolving business model with the death of an entire category of software.\n\nOrganizations are becoming even more software-obsessed, and there is a new generation of products that are quickly displacing incumbents. \n\nSoftware is obviously becoming easier to build, but the opportunity for venture capitalists is still massive. \n\nThese things feel so obvious to type, but you'd be surprised at how many conversations I have that revolve around this very topic.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"6228302","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981381724702724256","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[23,113],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"829946137","name":"Itai | dynamic.xyz","screen_name":"turbahn","indices":[0,8]},{"id_str":"1135606000868872192","name":"Fireblocks","screen_name":"FireblocksHQ","indices":[9,22]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"turbahn","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981417837395923151","view_count":264,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761241800000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981393151530254774","full_text":"@turbahn @FireblocksHQ Congrats, have loved working with you and the team the last few years. First class always.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"829946137","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981393151530254774","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-25","value":406,"startTime":1761264000000,"endTime":1761350400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981703025946501274","view_count":70,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761309794000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981703025946501274","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else you'll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should!), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. These are some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy and pursue the deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981703548401520684","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761309918000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981703548401520684","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else you'll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should!), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. These investments will stand out in your data room so you might as well get ahead of those conversations and explain your underwriting logic. \n\nThese are also some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy & pursue the really special deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981704081166016556","view_count":57,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761310045000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981704081166016556","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else you'll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. Those investments will stand out in your data room so you might as well get ahead of those conversations and explain your underwriting logic. \n\nThese are also some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy & pursue the really special deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981709123755610507","view_count":199549,"bookmark_count":256,"created_at":1761311248000,"favorite_count":346,"quote_count":18,"reply_count":23,"retweet_count":25,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else it’ll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. Those investments will stand out in your data room so you might as well get ahead of those conversations and explain your underwriting logic. \n\nThese are also some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy & pursue the really special deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,277],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"811350","name":"Alexis Ohanian 🗽","screen_name":"alexisohanian","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"alexisohanian","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981768701885264380","view_count":4259,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761325452000,"favorite_count":24,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@alexisohanian 100% true. I find that newer managers are more risk-averse to exceptions because they don't want to get fired by their LPs. If you study the history of venture capital, many of the best firms today became franchises in critical moments when they made exceptions.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"811350","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981767253252358505","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,286],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"69619073","name":"Andrew D'Souza","screen_name":"andrewdsouza","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"andrewdsouza","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981777971267743913","view_count":1943,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761327662000,"favorite_count":15,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@andrewdsouza Most LPAs don’t have strict parameters around valuations.\n\nThey more often have definitions around:\n\n- what % of fund can go to a single investment \n\n- recycling % \n\n- deployment period \n\nMost of the time these exceptions aren’t made because GPs are scared of being wrong.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"69619073","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981777001078788107","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,220],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1945812818932170753","name":"Neo","screen_name":"neo3141111","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"neo3141111","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981736892283469930","view_count":1741,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761317868000,"favorite_count":15,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@neo3141111 You could look at a long list of hundreds of GPs who have world class track records that have invested after the pre-seed. A very easy list of people to study would be folks like Peter Thiel, Fred Wilson, etc","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1945812818932170753","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981734983279562826","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,23],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"20397708","name":"Niki Scevak","screen_name":"nikiscevak","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"nikiscevak","lang":"fr","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981860895103025450","view_count":1021,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761347433000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@nikiscevak Raise in SF","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"20397708","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981860111879672307","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,45],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"75409972","name":"Josh Porter","screen_name":"joshdotporter","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"joshdotporter","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981818015080673366","view_count":950,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761337209000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@joshdotporter ty great seeing you this week!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"75409972","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981812251968545118","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,25],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1764321378507931648","name":"Rohan","screen_name":"proxy_vector","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"proxy_vector","lang":"ca","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981757033461481979","view_count":933,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761322670000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@proxy_vector 100 percent","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1764321378507931648","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981748076227301597","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,294],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"175934436","name":"Paul Yacoubian","screen_name":"PaulYacoubian","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"PaulYacoubian","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981706003306746307","view_count":1639,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761310504000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981704081166016556","full_text":"Ha, this is a dangerous game to play because exit value is the model input that tends to be the most hand-wavy. It's really easy to change the exit value from $10B to $20B and have your entire model look like a work of art.\n\nI find that newer investors overestimate exit value on their investment proposals, and that the model assumption is normally tied to a 1x RTF (return the fund) outcome when your winners should math out to outcomes that are far greater like 3x-5x net or above. \n\nGetting the RTF model to make sense is becoming harder to build as entry prices become higher. The math just doesn't math out most of the time. So some just change that exit value to $1T and do the deal :)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"175934436","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981704634734711025","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-26","value":3,"startTime":1761350400000,"endTime":1761436800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,132],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"6781512","name":"Martin Tobias (Pre-Seed VC)","screen_name":"MartinGTobias","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"MartinGTobias","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982144968669135150","view_count":658,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761415161000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@MartinGTobias 100%. Fully believe that an 80/20 core vs. \"breaking the rules\" barbell strategy is the best for an early-stage firm.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"6781512","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1982141432950391154","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-27","value":154,"startTime":1761436800000,"endTime":1761523200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982472740914540939","view_count":880,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1761493308000,"favorite_count":7,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982472740914540939","full_text":"One of the most common questions you’ll get when fundraising for a venture fund is about sourcing. \n\nLPs are ultimately buying into your thesis and your access, so it makes sense that sourcing is one of the first questions.\n\nThe question is hard to answer because sourcing usually comes from many different channels & almost every VC believes their approach is better than their peers’.\n\nI can’t even imagine how confusing it must be for an LP who covers venture as part of a broader portfolio to figure out what’s real and what’s not. They get pitched by hundreds of managers a year, all claiming the same “proprietary deal flow” story.\n\nSo I figured I’d write a quick note on how I think about sourcing.\n\nI like to compare sourcing to multi-channel marketing. You have multiple inputs driving top of funnel, and ideally three or four strategies that create a sourcing flywheel.\n\nIt sometimes feels like LPs are searching for a single channel they can bring to their IC and say, “Look, they have a better sourcing engine.” But relying on one channel is risky. The game changes & so do relationships and competition.\n\nSourcing is never a magic bullet. Despite the debates, I don’t believe anyone has a true proprietary sourcing advantage beyond their reputation.\n\nSpeaking of proprietary networks... \n\nI met with a well-known GP recently who is now investing in a small number of funds & he asked which proprietary networks we have access to. It was a fair question, but I pushed back bc there are no truly proprietary networks in venture anymore.\n\nTake YC, for example. Founders could easily join other accelerators or raise the traditional way, but they choose YC because they trust it will get them further, faster. That trust is the differentiator.\n\nOr look at the handful of firms that have built entire franchises by backing Elon again and again - SpaceX, Tesla, The Boring Company, etc. The sourcing channel is no secret; the access is. And that access comes from relationships earned over decades.\n\nEveryone’s searching for a sourcing “hack.” The truth is, there isn’t one. The only real proprietary network in venture is your reputation. \n\nSo when LPs ask about sourcing, I try to reframe the question. It’s not where we find companies but it’s why the best founders choose to work with us once they’re found. \n\nThat’s the real edge, and it’s built over years, not through a single channel or campaign.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982476724895113555","view_count":17942,"bookmark_count":127,"created_at":1761494258000,"favorite_count":147,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":8,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982476724895113555","full_text":"One of the most common questions you’ll get when fundraising for a venture fund is about sourcing. \n\nLPs are ultimately buying into your thesis and your access, so it makes sense that sourcing is one of the first questions.\n\nThe question is hard to answer because sourcing usually comes from many different channels & almost every VC believes their approach is better than their peers’.\n\nI can’t even imagine how confusing it must be for an LP who covers venture as part of a broader portfolio to figure out what’s real and what’s not. They get pitched by hundreds of managers a year, all claiming the same “proprietary deal flow” story.\n\nSo I figured I’d write a quick note on how I think about sourcing.\n\nI like to compare sourcing to multi-channel marketing. You have multiple inputs driving top of funnel, and ideally three or four strategies that create a sourcing flywheel.\n\nIt sometimes feels like LPs are searching for a single channel they can bring to their IC and say, “Look, they have a better sourcing engine.” But relying on one channel is risky. The game changes & so do relationships and competition.\n\nSourcing is never a magic bullet. Despite the debates, I don’t believe anyone has a true proprietary sourcing advantage beyond their reputation.\n\nSpeaking of proprietary networks... \n\nI met with a well-known GP recently who is now investing in a small number of funds & he asked which proprietary networks we have access to. It was a fair question, but I pushed back bc there are no truly proprietary networks in venture anymore.\n\nTake YC. Founders could easily join other accelerators or raise the traditional way, but they choose YC because they trust it will get them further, faster. YC doesn’t have a proprietary network - it has a brand that founders want to be associated with. They trust YC to be the best Day 1 partner to help them build something valuable.\n\nWhat’s even more interesting is what happens after YC. Because it’s such an efficient marketplace, every venture firm has access to the same company list - it’s one of the most transparent markets in venture. We all know each batch will include a handful of outliers. None of that is proprietary sourcing. The real differentiation is in how firms underwrite conviction early and actually win those deals.\n\nOr look at the handful of firms that have built entire franchises by backing Elon again and again - SpaceX, Tesla, The Boring Company, etc. The sourcing channel is no secret; the access is. And that access comes from relationships earned over decades.\n\nEveryone’s searching for a sourcing “hack.” The truth is, there isn’t one. The only real proprietary network in venture is your reputation. \n\nSo when LPs ask about sourcing, I try to reframe the question. It’s not where we find companies but it’s why the best founders choose to work with us once they’re found. \n\nThat’s the real edge, and it’s built over years, not through a single channel or campaign.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-28","value":26,"startTime":1761523200000,"endTime":1761609600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,133],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982861967221240040","view_count":417,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761586107000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982861967221240040","full_text":"Every airport lounge is like:\n\n“Our menu is thoughtfully curated by award-winning chef _______” with some random I've never heard of.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982863864191713386","view_count":3987,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761586559000,"favorite_count":21,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982863864191713386","full_text":"Every airport lounge is like:\n\n“Our menu is thoughtfully curated by award-winning chef ____” with some random I've never heard of.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-29","value":0,"startTime":1761609600000,"endTime":1761696000000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-30","value":225,"startTime":1761696000000,"endTime":1761782400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983566611404521838","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761754107000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983566611404521838","full_text":"I had a funny conversation with an LP a couple weeks back where he said, \"If I hear another venture capitalist say the words 'prepared mind' again, I will go crazy.\" \n\nThere are many terms like this that get repeated in GP land, especially during AGM season when we’re all bumping into each other often: \n\n • Thesis-driven\n • Thematic \n • Research-driven\n • Prepared mind\n • First principles\n\nThe list goes on. \n\nAs a starting point, if you're an investor, you should absolutely be all these things. \n\nYour job is to develop a point of view on the world, identify a set of problems that you think will become big markets, and find the best founders to solve those problems.\n\nThe concept of a prepared mind has mostly been co-opted for fundraising purposes in venture capital, but the concept is still important to practice and understand. \n\nAt its core, a prepared mind means that you have spent enough time in a given market to know when you meet a founder who is solving the right problem at the right time.\n\nThis is literally the job of an investor, so every single venture capitalist should have a prepared mind. \n\nAnyways, enough on this topic for now. I have a meeting with an LP, and I'm going into it with a prepared mind ;)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983567542862970996","view_count":18,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761754329000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983567542862970996","full_text":"I had a funny conversation with an LP a couple weeks back where he said, \"If I hear another venture capitalist say the words 'prepared mind' again, I will go crazy.\" \n\nThere are many terms like this that get repeated in GP land, especially during AGM season when we’re all bumping into each other often: \n\n • Thesis-driven\n • Thematic \n • Research-driven\n • Prepared mind\n • First principles\n\nThe list goes on. \n\nAs a starting point, if you're an investor, you should absolutely practice all these things, but in 99% of cases this isn’t a differentiated approach. \n\nYour job is to develop a point of view on the world, identify a set of problems that you think will become big markets, and find the best founders to solve those problems.\n\nCall it whatever you want but that’s what great investors do. \n\nThe concept of a prepared mind has mostly been co-opted for fundraising purposes in venture capital, but the concept is still important to practice and understand. \n\nAt its core, a prepared mind means that you have spent enough time in a given market to know when you meet a founder who is solving the right problem at the right time.\n\nThis is literally the job of an investor, so every single venture capitalist should have a prepared mind. \n\nAnyways, enough on this topic for now. I have a meeting with an LP, and I'm going into it with a prepared mind ;)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983568035559419942","view_count":11074,"bookmark_count":34,"created_at":1761754447000,"favorite_count":83,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":10,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983568035559419942","full_text":"I had a fun conversation with an LP a couple weeks back where he said, \"If I hear another venture capitalist say the words 'prepared mind' again, I will go crazy.\" \n\nThere are many terms like this that get repeated in GP land, especially during AGM season when we’re all bumping into each other often: \n\n • Thesis-driven\n • Thematic \n • Research-driven\n • Prepared mind\n • First principles\n\nThe list goes on. \n\nAs a starting point, if you're an investor, you should absolutely practice all these things, but in 99% of cases this isn’t a differentiated approach. \n\nBut yes, your job is to develop a point of view on the world, identify a set of problems that you think will become big markets, and find the best founders to solve those problems.\n\nCall it whatever you want but that’s what great investors do. \n\nThe concept of a prepared mind has mostly been co-opted for fundraising purposes in venture capital, but it’s still important to practice and understand. \n\nAt its core, a prepared mind means that you have spent enough time in a given market to know when you meet a founder who is solving the right problem at the right time.\n\nThis is literally the job of an investor, so every single venture capitalist should have a prepared mind. \n\nAnyways, enough on this topic for now. I have a meeting with an LP, and I'm going into it with a prepared mind ;)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,295],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983615157277487153","view_count":21522,"bookmark_count":56,"created_at":1761765681000,"favorite_count":73,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":13,"retweet_count":8,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983615157277487153","full_text":"Engagement -> Retention -> Monetization used to be the funnel of building products & companies. \n\nMonetization -> Engagement -> Retention is the order that I'm seeing founders prioritize today in the AI age.\n\nI love monetization & spent 5 years of my life waking up every day trying to increase subs/a la carte purchases while leading the revenue team at the top grossing app in the world. \n\nSo you would think I'd agree that monetization is what everybody should spend their time thinking about, but the answer is far more nuanced. \n\nWe hear the words \"Vibe Revenue\" or \"Experimental Revenue\" being thrown out a lot this year in podcasts and newsletters, and those are accurate terms to describe what so much of monetization feels like today. \n\nIn prior cycles, founders had to earn the right to focus on monetization by building a great product first. \n\nA great product can be subjective - we use the words 'taste' and 'craft' a lot, but you can also measure it by looking first at engagement & then studying retention. \n\nThe problem with focusing on monetization too early is that you create a false sense of success, especially if you haven't seen renewal cycles yet. \n\nI am guessing there is a significant percentage of new companies who stare at their engagement and retention data all day long (which might be going up & to the right) & know there are deep flaws in their product. \n\nBut they lean on monetization ($0-$10m in a year!) to make it seem like they've found product-market fit with their own teams & investors. \n\nIt's a lot of fun to make money. I had the most fun ever in my operating career leading revenue teams. It can be addicting at times. \n\nBut the only reason we became the top-grossing app in the world is because we had best-in-class engagement and retention metrics for our category. We earned the right to monetize. \n\nI hope we get back to a world where everything starts with engagement and retention. Then we can talk about revenue.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,96],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1983617932791050265","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/voxOtB2akT","expanded":"https://twitter.com/spenserskates/status/1983617932791050265","display":"x.com/spenserskates/…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983637002928189443","view_count":14244,"bookmark_count":8,"created_at":1761770890000,"favorite_count":69,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":6,"retweet_count":4,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983637002928189443","full_text":"100%. The feature-vs-company blur might be the defining question of this AI cycle for investors.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-31","value":328,"startTime":1761782400000,"endTime":1761868800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,279],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1219566488325017602","name":"Supabase","screen_name":"supabase","indices":[776,785]},{"id_str":"24486938","name":"Nikhil Basu Trivedi","screen_name":"nbt","indices":[2899,2903]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983834443648278593","view_count":148751,"bookmark_count":122,"created_at":1761817963000,"favorite_count":237,"quote_count":6,"reply_count":47,"retweet_count":13,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"I had a conversation with an investor yesterday who claimed there hasn’t been a hit consumer app in over five years.\n\nMy response: ChatGPT is a consumer app.\n\nHe pushed back saying “It started as a research lab, not a consumer company.”\n\nThat convo made me realize how broken our definition of “consumer” has become.\n\nYears ago, I invested in Superhuman after watching my friends (and my Twitter feed) rave about it nonstop. At the time, I was working at a consumer company, yet I never questioned whether Superhuman was “consumer” or not.\n\nPeople love Superhuman for both personal and work use & it’s a daily habit with engagement and retention stronger than most social apps. If that’s not consumer behavior, what is?\n\nThis might sound surprising to some, but I also viewed @supabase from a consumer lens when we invested in the pre-seed, despite it being an open source dev tool. More than the underlying technology, I was most fascinated by the bottoms up nature of how developers were adopting the database and how passionate the early community was about the product.\n\nOpen source projects arguably have stronger communities than most consumer products, and the behaviors are social by nature. They have some of most interesting network effects as every incremental developer makes the project stronger. This aligns perfectly with the classic definition of network effects. \n\nI’ve also always believed that products built by product-first founders, designed for broad, personal use should be considered consumer products. \n\nBut somewhere along the way, we invented the term prosumer, and it’s confused everyone. \n\nIt made these products sound like mini-enterprise tools, which undersells that they’re designed for mass-market behaviors wrapped in productivity.\n\nBy that logic, Superhuman, ChatGPT, Perplexity, and a growing list of “non-consumer” tools are absolutely consumer products.\n\nChatGPT alone has over 750 million weekly active users which is mainstream adoption by any definition. And as it evolves into agentic e-commerce and video gen tools like Sora, its use cases are only getting more personal.\n\nWhy does this matter?\n\nBecause category definitions drive fundraising.\n\nIf you’re a founder pitching a “consumer” product, your pool of potential investors shrinks dramatically. If you just look at how venture firms organize internally, they often literally split their teams by enterprise and consumer, which makes no sense to me. \n\nThe same goes for VCs pitching LPs where consumer is still viewed as a cyclical category. If you send a consumer venture fund deck to a large group of LPs, many categorically wouldn't take your pitch. \n\nIn reality “consumer” today looks nothing like “social, local, mobile” which is how so many people think of consumer. \n\nWork and life are blending, and the products we use every day at home & at work don’t fit cleanly into old boxes.\n\nMy friend @nbt once wrote about the consumerization of the enterprise saying:\n\n“Amazon the largest e-commerce (consumer!) company in the world, offers Amazon Web Services, the largest cloud services (enterprise!) business in the world.\n\nNVIDIA, the largest personal computer graphics (consumer!) company in the world, offers graphics processing units (GPUs) for artificial intelligence applications (enterprise!), and has seen its market cap grow 20X in the past decade since this dual focus.”\n\nThe next generation of breakout apps won’t be defined by where they’re used, but by how deeply they integrate into daily life.\n\nWe’re in the golden age of consumer products. And yes, ChatGPT counts.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,172],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1542601224654127105","name":"Helius","screen_name":"heliuslabs","indices":[11,22]},{"id_str":"1309886201944473600","name":"mert | helius.dev","screen_name":"0xMert_","indices":[74,82]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1983479334947176680","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/LIavHNiSYf","expanded":"https://twitter.com/0xMert_/status/1983479334947176680","display":"x.com/0xMert_/status…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983884450229579777","view_count":11583,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1761829886000,"favorite_count":48,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":5,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983884450229579777","full_text":"We had our @heliuslabs board meeting yesterday. \n\nThe engineering pace of @0xMert_ and the entire team is wild right now.\n\nAnd the roadmap is about to get VERY interesting.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,279],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/uNgGonZr3V","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1983891914207469656/photo/1","id_str":"1983891704093798401","indices":[280,303],"media_key":"3_1983891704093798401","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4gy_mda8AE6LL8.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/uNgGonZr3V","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":217,"y":53,"h":88,"w":88}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":872,"w":766,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":872,"w":766,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":680,"w":597,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":872,"width":766,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":429},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":766},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":765,"h":872},{"x":152,"y":0,"w":436,"h":872},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":872}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1983891704093798401"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/uNgGonZr3V","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1983891914207469656/photo/1","id_str":"1983891704093798401","indices":[280,303],"media_key":"3_1983891704093798401","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4gy_mda8AE6LL8.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/uNgGonZr3V","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":217,"y":53,"h":88,"w":88}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":872,"w":766,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":872,"w":766,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":680,"w":597,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":872,"width":766,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":429},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":766},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":765,"h":872},{"x":152,"y":0,"w":436,"h":872},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":872}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1983891704093798401"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983891914207469656","view_count":5435,"bookmark_count":19,"created_at":1761831665000,"favorite_count":24,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983891914207469656","full_text":"I’ve been reading \"Who Knew\" by Barry Diller this week. \n\nI had the chance to meet Barry twice during my early days at Tinder.\n\nThe first time was three days before Christmas in 2015. I was still new at the company and trying to make a name for myself, so I showed up on December 22nd with just a few others.\n\n“Who’s that guy in the tracksuit?” one of our youngest engineers asked, looking up from his monitor.\n\nI glanced over and saw Barry Diller, owner of IAC and one of Tinder’s biggest shareholders.\n\nI didn’t know it at the time, but Barry (then 75 years old) had a tradition of visiting the Tinder office right before Christmas every year. He’d walk the floor asking questions, genuinely curious about what everyone was building.\n\nI watched him approach one of our engineers and ask, “What are you working on?”\n\nThe engineer started explaining what he was doing in very technical terms, and Barry listened without interrupting. I don’t think the engineer knew who he was because if he did, I’m pretty sure he would’ve been a lot more nervous explaining his code!\n\nA year later, in 2016, I made sure to be in the office those same few days before Christmas. The office was mostly empty again and we had just moved into a much larger space.\n\nSure enough, the guy in the tracksuit showed up again, right on cue. Barry Diller.\n\nHe made his rounds, saying hello and asking the few of us still in the office the same question: “What are you working on?”\n\nOne of the central themes of \"Who Knew\" and of Barry’s career is his obsession with understanding how things work at the most fundamental level:\n\n\"Only if I slowed everything down could I begin to understand all the parts and then try to rearrange them into something coherent. I tend to make things worse in the beginning as I fumble around trying to get to basic truths. Instinct, which I prize almost all else, doesn’t work very well for me in abstruse matters.\n\nI have to get to the core DNA on any matter, its logical essence, before I can add anything of value. This takes a lot of time, often to the irritation of faster thinkers, but when it does crystallize, I can’t be deterred.\n\nI listen with an extra ear, highly attuned to hear a new truth among the cacophony of voices in the room. When I catch that note, no matter what I might have thought before, I’ll change course in a second.\n\nIf I’ve ever had any kind of secret sauce, it’s the ability to hear conflicting, creative ideas bombarded around the room and extract something valuable.\n\nRecently in a meeting, someone complained that I wasn’t being consistent. I replied that I’m never consistent; I’ll turn on a dime if I hear a better truth.” \n- (Barry Diller, Who Knew)\n\nLooking back, I realize that when he asked what we were building, it wasn’t about oversight or management control. It was pure curiosity.\n\nMost leaders want to look smart. Barry wanted to get smart and understand the smallest molecule of what we were building, even on the sleepy days before Christmas.\n\nThe best investors and leaders don’t chase outcomes. They want to understand the wiring underneath.\n\nShow up, ask questions & keep asking until it makes sense. The tracksuit is optional.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[11,161],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"441679284","name":"brett goldstein","screen_name":"thatguybg","indices":[0,10]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"thatguybg","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983843170493382696","view_count":778,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761820044000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@thatguybg Most consumer apps have evolved their business models to subscriptions (same as bottoms up enterprise) and most have tiered pricing at this point too.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"441679284","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983842584788398438","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,293],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"13955342","name":"Trace Vertical Ai Cohen","screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983868789059154119","view_count":518,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761826152000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@Trace_Cohen 100%. On Supabase, they had a cultish community who loved the product before the pre-seed.\n\nAs an investor who does enterprise & consumer like myself, it was helpful to underwrite through a consumer lens.\n\nNow it's a mass market developer product selling to large enterprises.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"13955342","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983867417655750680","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[11,110],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1979921","name":"Josh Elman","screen_name":"joshelman","indices":[0,10]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"joshelman","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983892716288405682","view_count":930,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761831857000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@joshelman 100%. Also fwiw I think Josh Elman is invested in almost all the best consumer apps of his vintage!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1979921","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983892303245885616","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,85],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"35647451","name":"Turner Novak 🍌🧢","screen_name":"TurnerNovak","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"TurnerNovak","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983927717734047759","view_count":667,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761840202000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@TurnerNovak Haha! This was before i got pitched because someone thought I was an LP.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"35647451","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983926158862262518","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,43],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1054947848","name":"Nicole Priel","screen_name":"smallbigtalk","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"smallbigtalk","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983846327105544322","view_count":212,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761820797000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@smallbigtalk would love to read the thesis","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1054947848","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983846102391791901","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,269],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"3014388155","name":"Jeddi","screen_name":"antinertia","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"antinertia","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983857862607827087","view_count":232,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761823547000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@antinertia Prosumer is what they’ve called it historically but those companies tend to get discounted in fundraising from what I’ve seen.\n\nProbably because investors view them as being “in between” both markets. \n\nSo I don’t advise calling yourself a prosumer company.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"3014388155","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983857075298943121","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,32],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"41771957","name":"Ryan Morris","screen_name":"RyanMorris55","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"RyanMorris55","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983893392791925073","view_count":161,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761832018000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@RyanMorris55 Thank you brother!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"41771957","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983893276349415508","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,179],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"2363641","name":"jason yeh","screen_name":"jasonoliver","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"jasonoliver","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983952515470352895","view_count":431,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761846114000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@jasonoliver 100%. And shopping is coming fast with agentic e-commerce. ChatGPT (and its competitors) will end up owning dominant market share across multiple consumer categories.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"2363641","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983951551866831342","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[9,227],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"150388200","name":"Warren Shaeffer","screen_name":"wwshaef","indices":[0,8]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"wwshaef","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983946533159772285","view_count":272,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761844688000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@wwshaef I agree with your definition. Simple is very useful. \n\nMost bottoms-up software has consumer overlap. \n\nProductivity Software is a decent label but tends to devalue companies because there haven’t been many huge exits.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"150388200","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983945638405611746","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-01","value":9,"startTime":1761868800000,"endTime":1761955200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,124],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"39191312","name":"Kirsten Green","screen_name":"kirstenagreen","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"kirstenagreen","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1984113931565330944","view_count":863,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761884598000,"favorite_count":7,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1984107536052842496","full_text":"@kirstenagreen “ChatGPT wasn’t necessarily designed as a consumer product, but consumers claimed it anyway.”\n\nExactly right.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"39191312","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1984107536052842496","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[7,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"22961818","name":"Todd Jackson","screen_name":"tjack","indices":[0,6]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"tjack","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1984358200276382017","view_count":247,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761942837000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@tjack That's a great list, and 100% agree.\n\nConsumer gets anchored on social and things like DTC which is an outdated definition.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"22961818","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1984344313393004585","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-02","value":66,"startTime":1761955200000,"endTime":1762041600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/cf2xeuTten","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1984669264100618636/photo/1","id_str":"1984666463513559043","indices":[277,300],"media_key":"3_1984666463513559043","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4rzoiNbQAMI02X.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/cf2xeuTten","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1067,"w":1600,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":800,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":453,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":1067,"width":1600,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":72,"w":1600,"h":896},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1067,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":936,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":534,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1600,"h":1067}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1984666463513559043"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1718560501825933312","name":"Discipulus Ventures","screen_name":"DiscipulusVent","indices":[38,53]},{"id_str":"1213544133878370304","name":"Jakob Diepenbrock","screen_name":"jakobdiepen","indices":[73,85]},{"id_str":"1718560501825933312","name":"Discipulus Ventures","screen_name":"DiscipulusVent","indices":[38,53]},{"id_str":"1213544133878370304","name":"Jakob Diepenbrock","screen_name":"jakobdiepen","indices":[73,85]},{"id_str":"1333613797907582976","name":"Augustus Doricko","screen_name":"ADoricko","indices":[519,528]},{"id_str":"1716643091137056768","name":"Rainmaker Technology Corporation","screen_name":"RainmakerCorp","indices":[534,548]},{"id_str":"1152136922694766593","name":"Ted Feldmann","screen_name":"teddyfeld","indices":[550,560]},{"id_str":"1843811438332391427","name":"Durin","screen_name":"DurinMining","indices":[566,578]},{"id_str":"1435266698701991936","name":"Isaiah Taylor - 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But when I walked through the doors, I realized it wasn’t just a Bay Area thing. The room was packed with investors from all over the country who’d made the same trip. Clearly, something real is happening here.\n\nThe day started with a panel with @ADoricko from @RainmakerCorp, @teddyfeld from @DurinMining (Ch. 1 portfolio company), and @isaiah_p_taylor from @valaratomics along with @jakobdiepen - who gave a quick history lesson on El Segundo’s roots.\n\nBefore World War II, this city was home to Douglas Aircraft, builder of the SBD Dauntless dive bomber and a symbol of American industrial strength. It’s no accident that so many “America First” companies are being built here again. Founders in El Segundo are carrying that legacy forward.\n\nThey showed a map of the current startup ecosystem, which is 55+ companies, and most of them have come into existence since 2023. \n\nI know 55 companies doesn't sound like a huge number, but as you think about the venture capital interest and momentum that El Segundo has, it's easy to imagine that number becoming 100’s and 1000’s in years to come in the city and surrounding areas. \n\nOne of the other most interesting messages was how El Segundo is evolving from being a bit of a meme (which was very intentional to get people to pay attention) to now deploying products in the physical world. \n\nAugustus from Rainmaker had just gotten back from a trip to Oregon where they deployed rain the prior day (I believe he said the cloud seeding operation was 100m+ gallons). \n\nTed from Durin had recently successfully completed his first drilling operation in Nevada. Both companies have done so on modest budgets, and the founders challenged the idea that hard tech is as capital-intensive as most venture capitalists think. \n\nThe demo day featured ten companies spanning a wide range of sectors, all united around one core theme: strengthening America.\n\nThese founders are tackling hard, meaningful problems in areas like energy, autonomous manufacturing, commodity trading, heavy equipment procurement, autonomous farming, and oil and gas.\n\nIt’s worth noting that many of the companies aren’t pure hardware plays. Some are software-first, and others are software-enabled hardware, which, frankly, is what all hardware is becoming.\n\nMy takeaway is that there doesn’t need to be such a hard divide between hardware and software investors. These worlds are starting to blend, and I expect that collaboration to accelerate over the next few years.\n\nWhat’s clear is that El Segundo is here to stay & that @DiscipulusVent is building something special (I’m a proud LP in the fund). The founders here are working on serious problems, and the momentum is real. I’d bet the next demo day will draw an even bigger crowd of investors from across the country.\n\nVery bullish on El Segundo & the next chapter for LA tech.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-03","value":21,"startTime":1762041600000,"endTime":1762128000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,277],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1984846679720542704","view_count":2379,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1762059299000,"favorite_count":21,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":6,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1984846679720542704","full_text":"I grew up in the Bay Area as a Giants fan, but now live in Los Angeles and goes without saying, this city earned a championship this year. Congratulations to the Dodgers.\n\nFor anyone who’s been here, 2025 has been a brutal year for Los Angeles. The January 7th fires marked the start of years of loss and rebuilding. Tonight’s win gives people here something to rally around, something that actually feels good again.\n\nSports have a way of healing pain and heartbreak. Being in L.A. tonight feels like the city finally got a moment of relief.\n\nCongratulations to the Dodgers and to Los Angeles.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-04","value":0,"startTime":1762128000000,"endTime":1762214400000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-05","value":26,"startTime":1762214400000,"endTime":1762300800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,54],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1985639448785174836","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/8rm1V9sGlK","expanded":"https://twitter.com/uialexk/status/1985639448785174836","display":"x.com/uialexk/status…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1985707818230452710","view_count":9198,"bookmark_count":5,"created_at":1762264611000,"favorite_count":26,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1985707818230452710","full_text":"We have entered the large narrow sans serif slop phase","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,291],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1457278696931405828","name":"rosie (🔟/🔟)","screen_name":"therosieum","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"therosieum","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1985840026744189139","view_count":22,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762296132000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1984987750647333350","full_text":"This was a great post.\n\n“The problem is, you can’t build anything meaningful in 18 months. Real infrastructure takes at least 3–5 years. Real product-market fit requires iteration over years, not quarters.”\n\nThat said, I actually think those timelines are compressing.\n\nInfra can now be built in 1–2 years, and PMF can happen in weeks or months for strong applications.\n\nWe just need more original ideas - not the 75th prediction market.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1457278696931405828","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1984987750647333350","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-06","value":0,"startTime":1762300800000,"endTime":1762387200000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-07","value":27,"startTime":1762387200000,"endTime":1762473600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,134],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"768929915844513792","name":"Jamesin Seidel","screen_name":"seidtweets","indices":[123,134]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1986437434213544227","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/XjktPxYNjP","expanded":"https://twitter.com/viraj__acharya/status/1986437434213544227","display":"x.com/viraj__acharya…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986494295663386907","view_count":4971,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762452122000,"favorite_count":9,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986494295663386907","full_text":"Jamesin killed it as always.\n\nThe best venture firms earn the right to be “partners” & not just investors. \n\nWell done @seidtweets","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"44196397","name":"Elon Musk","screen_name":"elonmusk","indices":[64,73]},{"id_str":"44196397","name":"Elon Musk","screen_name":"elonmusk","indices":[64,73]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986557513740001382","view_count":3764,"bookmark_count":4,"created_at":1762467194000,"favorite_count":18,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986557513740001382","full_text":"Tesla AGM right now is all about the robots 🤖\nA few quotes from @elonmusk:\n\nOn scale:\n“Optimus is going to be the biggest product of all time. Bigger than cell phones. Bigger than anything else.”\n\nOn use cases:\n“There will be 3–5 industrial robots for every personal robot.”\n\nOn speed:\n“We’re going to launch the fastest production ramp of any large manufactured product, starting with a million-unit per year production line in Fremont.”\n\nRobots aren’t coming. They’re already here.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-08","value":111,"startTime":1762473600000,"endTime":1762560000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986839703291896042","view_count":9,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762534473000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986839703291896042","full_text":"The “hype video” startup trend will fade, just like every other form of attention arbitrage.\n\nI say that as someone who actually went to film school and loves video. But we’ve reached the point where agencies are producing hype videos for fundraising rounds just to trigger VC FOMO.\n\nVirality has never been easier to manufacture, or shorter-lived.\n\nSpending $25K on a product video might make sense from a valuation or dilution standpoint. But is that really the culture you want to build?\n\nAnd when the investors who FOMO’d into your round realize the growth story doesn’t hold up, how do you think that plays out?\n\nBuild great products. The hype video era is already getting stale.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986841507282964826","view_count":113,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1762534903000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986841507282964826","full_text":"The “hype video” startup trend will fade, just like every other form of attention arbitrage.\n\nI say that as someone who actually went to film school and loves video. But we’ve reached the point where agencies are producing hype videos for fundraising rounds just to trigger VC fomo. \n\nIt’s now part of the fundraising playbook:\n\nMake a pitch deck. Make a hype video. Go a little bit viral. Rinse and repeat.\n\nVirality has never been easier to manufacture, but it’s also never been shorter-lived.\n\nSpending $25K on a product video might make sense from a valuation or dilution standpoint. But is that really the culture you want to build?\n\nAnd when the investors who FOMO’d into your round realize the growth story doesn’t hold up, how do you think that plays out?\n\nBuild great products that solve real problems. The hype video era is already stale.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,275],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986848712908546121","view_count":18228,"bookmark_count":32,"created_at":1762536621000,"favorite_count":92,"quote_count":7,"reply_count":13,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986848712908546121","full_text":"The “hype video” startup trend will fade, just like every other form of attention arbitrage.\n\nI say that as someone who actually went to film school and loves video. But we’ve reached the point where agencies are producing hype videos for fundraising rounds just to create VC fomo. \n\nIt’s now part of the fundraising playbook:\n\nMake a pitch deck. Make a hype video. Go a little bit viral. Rinse & repeat.\n\nVirality has never been easier to manufacture, but it’s also never been shorter-lived. The investors you actually want around for the next decade can tell the difference.\n\nSpending $25K on a product video might make sense from a valuation or dilution standpoint. But is that really the culture you want to build?\n\nAnd when the investors who FOMO’d into your round realize the growth story doesn’t hold up, how do you think that plays out?\n\nBuild great products that solve real problems. The hype video era is already stale.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,215],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986892752286883962","view_count":3190,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1762547121000,"favorite_count":18,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986892752286883962","full_text":"The most important part of “staying in crypto” as an early stage investor is being completely unemotional about the markets.\n\nI feel nothing when our crypto book swings 20–30%.\n\nMaybe that’s unhealthy. But it works.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-09","value":530,"startTime":1762560000000,"endTime":1762646400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,234],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"787810160513200129","name":"Chapter One","screen_name":"chapterone","indices":[50,61]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986969884362940562","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762565511000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986969884362940562","full_text":"Yesterday we locked in two deals that will define @chapterone’s next chapter.\n\nOne: an incubation with a major IP partner (a year in the making).\n\nTwo: a product we’ll launch publicly soon with a major tech platform. \n\nAlways cooking.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,239],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"787810160513200129","name":"Chapter One","screen_name":"chapterone","indices":[50,61]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986970650532327456","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762565693000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986970650532327456","full_text":"Yesterday we locked in two deals that will define @chapterone’s next chapter.\n\nOne: an incubation with a major IP partner (a year in the making).\n\nTwo: a product we’ll launch publicly soon with a well known tech platform. \n\nAlways cooking.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,232],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"787810160513200129","name":"Chapter One","screen_name":"chapterone","indices":[50,61]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986970741779407185","view_count":6055,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1762565715000,"favorite_count":48,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986970741779407185","full_text":"Yesterday we locked in two deals that will define @chapterone’s next chapter.\n\nOne: an incubation with a major IP partner (a year in the making).\n\nTwo: a product we’ll launch publicly soon with a big tech platform. \n\nAlways cooking.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,281],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987236350836494777","view_count":164696,"bookmark_count":200,"created_at":1762629041000,"favorite_count":476,"quote_count":11,"reply_count":30,"retweet_count":21,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1987236350836494777","full_text":"Startup beef is always funny.\n\nYears ago, I worked at a marketplace & we decided Craigslist was our enemy. We built narratives around “beating” them, studied their every move, and even shaped internal goals around taking their users. I’m pretty sure they never thought about us once.\n\nLater, we shifted our obsession to TaskRabbit. Remember Taskrabbit? We spent so much energy trying to outdo them w/ pricing wars, feature debates, endless comparisons. But in the end, neither of us became a breakout, venture-scale success.\n\nThe real competitors were the ones playing a much bigger game: DoorDash, Instacart, Uber. We knew those founders personally, hung out with them at the same SF parties, but never saw them as direct competition. Turns out, they were just playing a different sport entirely.\n\nI see the same thing today in AI and crypto. Startups beefing over tiny overlaps, chasing small wins. Before you pick a fight, make sure you’re actually in a market worth winning. \n\nOtherwise, you’ll wake up every morning obsessed with a game that doesn’t matter.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,54],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"954060455831580672","name":"Molly O’Shea","screen_name":"MollySOShea","indices":[0,12]},{"id_str":"768929915844513792","name":"Jamesin Seidel","screen_name":"seidtweets","indices":[21,32]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"MollySOShea","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987168354260689078","view_count":85,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762612830000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986824069094822264","full_text":"@MollySOShea Talk to @seidtweets - she will have ideas","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"954060455831580672","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1986824069094822264","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,107],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"21706010","name":"Daniel Pearson","screen_name":"danielpearson","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"danielpearson","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987239060021387360","view_count":5021,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762629687000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1987236350836494777","full_text":"@danielpearson Love that Peter Thiel quote and very true.\n\nIf only we had venture funds at that point haha.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"21706010","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987237809229599115","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-10","value":0,"startTime":1762646400000,"endTime":1762732800000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-11","value":0,"startTime":1762732800000,"endTime":1762819200000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-12","value":0,"startTime":1762819200000,"endTime":1762905600000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-13","value":0,"startTime":1762905600000,"endTime":1762992000000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-14","value":169,"startTime":1762992000000,"endTime":1763078400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"4188045073","name":"Jordi Hays","screen_name":"jordihays","indices":[828,838]},{"id_str":"30736937","name":"John Coogan","screen_name":"johncoogan","indices":[841,852]},{"id_str":"1838288550569349120","name":"TBPN","screen_name":"tbpn","indices":[856,861]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988981359013163127","view_count":63,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763045084000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988981359013163127","full_text":"Venture Capital Musical Chairs\n\nWhen I first got into venture capital, I assumed that General Partners stayed at firms for most of their careers. From the outside, venture capital shops looked like stable institutions. At the very least, they felt more permanent than the startups they backed.\n\nThat assumption was dead wrong.\n\nBack then, I was at Tinder and a scout for Index Ventures. It was an awesome experience, but I definitely underestimated how turbulent things can be inside other venture firms I was co-investing with and getting to know more closely.\n\nThat turbulence has only accelerated in the last few years. Every week, I see partners leaving, firms reshaping their strategies, and LP relationships shifting. \n\nIt feels like watching ESPN at this point waiting for Shams to break some trade news. Luckily we have @jordihays & @johncoogan at @tbpn.\n\nFor founders, venture capital musical chairs feels like something happening on the other side of the table. You sense the industry shifting, but you’re busy building your company. Whatever chaos is unfolding inside venture firms isn’t exactly top of mind.\n\nBut you should be thinking about it a lot more. And here's why. \n\nWhen you raise from a venture firm, you don’t really raise from the firm. You raise from a specific partner. You take their calls, you trust their judgment, and you build your relationship around them. They’re the one who sits on your board, texts you late at night, and ideally, fights for you when things get tough. \n\nWhen they leave, you lose that advocate. Suddenly, the person who cared most about your survival inside the partnership is gone.\n\nIn today’s venture world, that partner may not even be around by the time your next fundraise rolls around. \n\nI was talking to a former partner at a multi-stage fund yesterday, and she told me that the average partner at a venture firm sticks around for 7 years. And when they leave, the implications for you are important to understand.\n\nWhat often happens next is that you become an “adopted company.” Other partners don’t rush to claim you, because supporting you doesn’t count toward their scoreboard. Venture is a business built on attribution, and if they didn’t source or lead your deal, the incentive to spend time helping you is low. You end up feeling like the kid at the dinner table nobody wants to introduce.\n\nBoard dynamics only make the problem worse. If your original partner leaves, their seat might be reassigned to someone who barely knows your business, or worse, someone who doesn’t care to. \n\nNow you’re wasting cycles re-educating a new person who has little emotional or financial attachment to your success. Instead of focusing on building, you’re back at square one, explaining the basics to someone who isn’t invested in your story.\n\nAnd then there’s the signaling risk. Other investors notice when your champion departs their firm. LPs notice too. Even if your company is performing well, your life will change.\n\n“Is the firm still supporting you?” You’ll get asked this question dozens of times by other investors, potential hires, and media. You can explain this pretty easily, but it’s just one of those annoying questions that you’ll have to talk about for many years to come.\n\nThis isn’t meant to be morbid. It’s a reminder to choose your partners carefully and understand their career trajectory and standing inside the firm.\n\nFundraising is chaotic right now. Bubble or not, founders and investors are speed-dating their way into big rounds, and everyone’s expected to build trust on a timeline that would be insane in any normal business relationship.\n\nMy best advice is don’t assume the partner you pick will be there forever. Get to know the rest of the partnership, understand how they think, and make sure you actually believe in the firm’s culture and ethos.\n\nA friend put it well yesterday: the only person who’s almost certainly sticking around is the founder of the firm. That’s the longest term partner you're getting into business with. You may not get much access to the founder(s) of a firm, but it’s still worth knowing their story, their reputation, and how they’ve shown up for founders over time.\n\nIf your deal sponsor is gone in a few years, would you still be proud to call that firm your investor? \n\nIf the answer is yes, great, but make sure you’re diligencing them as hard as they’re diligencing you.\n\nVenture Capital Musical Chairs isn’t stopping anytime soon. If anything, it will get much spicier as we understand which partners took massive AI swings that will generate many billions for their firms, or leave their firms holding the bag.\n\nIn either case, your partner still might leave. \n\nInvestors who crushed this AI wave might use that momentum to spin out and start their own firms. And the ones who didn’t get big wins in this cycle might be looking for new jobs soon for reasons we all understand.\n\nAs a founder, choose your partners carefully and make damn sure you’re not the last one left standing when the music stops. \n\nFin.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"4188045073","name":"Jordi Hays","screen_name":"jordihays","indices":[859,869]},{"id_str":"30736937","name":"John Coogan","screen_name":"johncoogan","indices":[872,883]},{"id_str":"1838288550569349120","name":"TBPN","screen_name":"tbpn","indices":[887,892]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988983199872004228","view_count":66136,"bookmark_count":126,"created_at":1763045523000,"favorite_count":165,"quote_count":6,"reply_count":19,"retweet_count":23,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"Venture Capital Musical Chairs (And Why Founders Should Care)\n\nWhen I first got into venture capital, I assumed that General Partners stayed at firms for most of their careers. From the outside, venture capital shops looked like stable institutions. At the very least, they felt more permanent than the startups they backed.\n\nThat assumption was dead wrong.\n\nBack then, I was at Tinder and a scout for Index Ventures. It was an awesome experience, but I definitely underestimated how turbulent things can be inside other venture firms I was co-investing with and getting to know more closely.\n\nThat turbulence has only accelerated in the last few years. Every week, I see partners leaving, firms reshaping their strategies, and LP relationships shifting. \n\nIt feels like watching ESPN at this point waiting for Shams to break some trade news. Luckily we have @jordihays & @johncoogan at @tbpn.\n\nFor founders, venture capital musical chairs feels like something happening on the other side of the table. You sense the industry shifting, but you’re busy building your company. Whatever chaos is unfolding inside venture firms isn’t exactly top of mind.\n\nBut you should be thinking about it a lot more. And here's why. \n\nWhen you raise from a venture firm, you don’t really raise from the firm. You raise from a specific partner. You take their calls, you trust their judgment, and you build your relationship around them. They’re the one who sits on your board, texts you late at night, and ideally, fights for you when things get tough. \n\nWhen they leave, you lose that advocate. Suddenly, the person who cared most about your survival inside the partnership is gone.\n\nIn today’s venture world, that partner may not even be around by the time your next fundraise rolls around. \n\nI was talking to a former partner at a multi-stage fund yesterday, and she told me that the average partner at a venture firm sticks around for 7 years. And when they leave, the implications for you are important to understand.\n\nWhat often happens next is that you become an “adopted company.” Other partners don’t rush to claim you, because supporting you doesn’t count toward their scoreboard. Venture is a business built on attribution, and if they didn’t source or lead your deal, the incentive to spend time helping you is low.\n\nBoard dynamics only make the problem worse. If your original partner leaves, their seat might be reassigned to someone who barely knows your business, or worse, someone who doesn’t care to. \n\nNow you’re wasting cycles re-educating a new person who has little emotional or financial attachment to your success. Instead of focusing on building, you’re back at square one, explaining the basics to someone who isn’t invested in your story.\n\nAnd then there’s the signaling risk. Other investors notice when your champion departs their firm. LPs notice too. Even if your company is performing well, your life will change.\n\n“Is the firm still supporting you?” You’ll get asked this question dozens of times by other investors, potential hires, and media. You can explain this pretty easily, but it’s just one of those annoying questions that you’ll have to talk about for many years to come.\n\nThis isn’t meant to be morbid. It’s a reminder to choose your partners carefully and understand their career trajectory and standing inside the firm.\n\nFundraising is chaotic right now. Bubble or not, founders and investors are speed-dating their way into big rounds, and everyone’s expected to build trust on a timeline that would be insane in any normal business relationship.\n\nMy best advice is don’t assume the partner you pick will be there forever. Get to know the rest of the partnership, understand how they think, and make sure you actually believe in the firm’s culture and ethos.\n\nA friend put it well yesterday: the only person who’s almost certainly sticking around is the founder of the firm. That’s the longest term partner you're getting into business with. You may not get much access to the founder(s) of a firm, but it’s still worth knowing their story, their reputation, and how they’ve shown up for founders over time.\n\nVenture Capital Musical Chairs isn’t stopping anytime soon. If anything, it will get much spicier as we understand which partners took massive AI swings that will generate many billions for their firms, or leave their firms holding the bag.\n\nIn either case, your partner still might leave. \n\nInvestors who crushed this AI wave might use that momentum to spin out and start their own firms. And the ones who didn’t get big wins in this cycle might be looking for new jobs soon for reasons we all understand.\n\nAs a founder, choose your partners carefully and make damn sure you’re not the last one left standing when the music stops. \n\nFin.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,75],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"35647451","name":"Turner Novak 🍌🧢","screen_name":"TurnerNovak","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"TurnerNovak","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988990321540399109","view_count":1308,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763047220000,"favorite_count":4,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"@TurnerNovak Very effective Sparknotes version - I need you to be my editor","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"35647451","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1988989896195756499","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-15","value":171,"startTime":1763078400000,"endTime":1763164800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,87],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1989156238018683215","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/Ssm5bH6JtM","expanded":"https://twitter.com/rohanpaul_ai/status/1989156238018683215","display":"x.com/rohanpaul_ai/s…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989213951863955480","view_count":2628,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1763100538000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989213951863955480","full_text":"Solana FDV: $80B (feels cheap)\nA 1-year-old AI startup: $50B\n\nWelcome to pure-vibes VC.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,121],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rsKQuQih8o","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1989184813312680086/photo/1","id_str":"1989184305332174848","indices":[122,145],"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5sAligbQAAxQo3.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rsKQuQih8o","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":977,"y":403,"h":520,"w":520},{"x":1347,"y":59,"h":635,"w":635},{"x":507,"y":376,"h":589,"w":589}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":572,"y":236,"h":304,"w":304},{"x":789,"y":35,"h":372,"w":372},{"x":297,"y":220,"h":345,"w":345}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":324,"y":134,"h":172,"w":172},{"x":447,"y":19,"h":211,"w":211},{"x":168,"y":124,"h":195,"w":195}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":1833,"y":757,"h":975,"w":975},{"x":2527,"y":112,"h":1192,"w":1192},{"x":952,"y":705,"h":1106,"w":1106}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1152,"w":2048,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":675,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":2160,"width":3840,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":10,"w":3840,"h":2150},{"x":552,"y":0,"w":2160,"h":2160},{"x":685,"y":0,"w":1895,"h":2160},{"x":1092,"y":0,"w":1080,"h":2160},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":3840,"h":2160}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[{"display_url":"x.com/OpenAI/status/…","expanded_url":"https://x.com/OpenAI/status/1989138776585851038","url":"https://t.co/5gFtHQYNiu","indices":[98,121]}],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rsKQuQih8o","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1989184813312680086/photo/1","id_str":"1989184305332174848","indices":[122,145],"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5sAligbQAAxQo3.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rsKQuQih8o","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":977,"y":403,"h":520,"w":520},{"x":1347,"y":59,"h":635,"w":635},{"x":507,"y":376,"h":589,"w":589}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":572,"y":236,"h":304,"w":304},{"x":789,"y":35,"h":372,"w":372},{"x":297,"y":220,"h":345,"w":345}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":324,"y":134,"h":172,"w":172},{"x":447,"y":19,"h":211,"w":211},{"x":168,"y":124,"h":195,"w":195}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":1833,"y":757,"h":975,"w":975},{"x":2527,"y":112,"h":1192,"w":1192},{"x":952,"y":705,"h":1106,"w":1106}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1152,"w":2048,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":675,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":2160,"width":3840,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":10,"w":3840,"h":2150},{"x":552,"y":0,"w":2160,"h":2160},{"x":685,"y":0,"w":1895,"h":2160},{"x":1092,"y":0,"w":1080,"h":2160},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":3840,"h":2160}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"quoted_status_id_str":"1983834443648278593","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/t56Kl9NM7f","expanded":"https://twitter.com/jmj/status/1983834443648278593","display":"x.com/jmj/status/198…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989184813312680086","view_count":19239,"bookmark_count":23,"created_at":1763093591000,"favorite_count":52,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989184813312680086","full_text":"ChatGPT now has group chats.\n\nCongrats to the newest social network on the internet. Case closed.\nhttps://t.co/5gFtHQYNiu https://t.co/rsKQuQih8o","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,282],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989423657438121993","view_count":21867,"bookmark_count":60,"created_at":1763150536000,"favorite_count":102,"quote_count":5,"reply_count":24,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"Vibe Investing Is the New Vibe Coding\n\nThe institutional memory of what happened in 2020–2022 is basically gone. It’s wild how quickly we as an industry forgot.\n\nI have a theory that our brains now process trauma & even financial bubbles in smaller and smaller increments. We’re living through the compression of emotional memory. Our tech industry systems take in stimuli that are too frequent, too loud, and too fast, so nothing sticks. \n\nI dug into my theory more (which you’ve likely felt intuitively but maybe haven’t articulated) and it turns out there’s actually a concept called “emotional amnesia\" which is a feeling numb or disconnected about what is happening around you.\n\nI won’t bore you with the academic details, but my takeaway as applied to venture capital is that the half-life on lessons learned (and in most businesses) is collapsing at the same pace you scroll a TikTok feed. We breeze past a $3B seed round at a $30B valuation like it’s a TMZ clip. \n\nAs a first-time manager who launched a fund in 2019, the 2020–2022 bubble left a permanent imprint on me. I’ll never forget what that period felt like. \n\nThe velocity, FOMO & the total detachment from fundamentals was intoxicating for everyone. Your seed check jumps from a $10M post to a $150M post in 30 days. Congrats… I guess? Because now you have to decide whether to follow on. And it’s a tier-one lead. What do you do?\n\nThat environment pushed every firm, including the great ones, into some objectively terrible decisions.\n\nAnd when I look at venture today, the industry barely resembles what it was even six years ago. We used to joke about “vibe investing” as the exception. The charismatic founder with cult-leader energy, the weird but magnetic pitch, the occasional “let’s take a flyer and see what happens.” Now it’s the norm. \n\nAura and an AI narrative = 10 term sheets.\n\nThere are insanely talented, credible operators building world-changing companies. But a $50B valuation for a pre-product seed round? Is that even venture capital? Call it whatever you want (and honestly we probably need a new category name) because it’s a completely different industry at this point.\n\nThe biggest takeaway is that at almost every stage from seed, growth, crossover, even public markets, we’re operating on vibes. Maybe I’m slowly becoming a boomer for even saying this.\n\nBut it's narrative over numbers, momentum over diligence, social proof over actual proof.\n\nCritics dunk on “vibe coding” as a Gen Z builder phenomenon that creates technical slop, but venture capital has built its own version: vibe investing.\n\nDrop a pitch deck into ChatGPT, run a Deep Research query, and boom “I don’t even need analysts anymore!” You skim the output in five minutes between pitch calls and try to stitch together a market thesis. Meanwhile the founder is a fundraising machine and every other firm is running the exact same Deep Research report you are.\n\nYou better move fast.\n\nSo you hop into Granola, grab one smart-sounding insight from your call, and paste it into Slack like you discovered fire. Your partners light up. Then you mention the founder already has multiple term sheets and suddenly everyone’s ready to clear their calendars.\n\nWe won’t know what turns into investment slop for a few years, but vibe-driven deals are definitely going to push that percentage way up. \n\nMaybe that’s fine & maybe this time really is different, and the outliers will paper over all the vibe-investing slop. But if you’re an emerging manager or running a concentrated portfolio, that’s a dangerous way to live. You don’t get to spray-and-pray your way out of vibes.\n\nRight now the vibes are insanely strong. It’s exciting. I feel just as fired up as everyone else and that energy is exactly why venture and technology keep marching forward.\n\nBut if I had one message today it would be this. \n\nGOOD LUCK AVOIDING THE SLOP.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,14],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"25232333","name":"Pat McGovern","screen_name":"pw_mcgovern","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"pw_mcgovern","lang":"qme","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989437186396332277","view_count":90,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763153761000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@pw_mcgovern 🔥","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"25232333","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989435465892606039","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,47],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"180030016","name":"davidfeiock","screen_name":"davidfeiock","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"davidfeiock","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989439081856864670","view_count":95,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763154213000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@davidfeiock Doing my best to please the people","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"180030016","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989438684970840404","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[16,33],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"90144647","name":"Viraj Acharya","screen_name":"Viraj__Acharya","indices":[0,15]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Viraj__Acharya","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989474730047672821","view_count":55,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763162712000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@Viraj__Acharya Haha yes happy to","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"90144647","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989469687676350678","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,283],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"729253848787738624","name":"george beall","screen_name":"GeorgePBeall","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"GeorgePBeall","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989425758935363750","view_count":254,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763151037000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@GeorgePBeall There will be a mean reversion as DPI gets realized. There is a category land grab right now, and the opportunity is massive, so capital is piling in. Long-term bullish on AI, but at some point, early stage investors will need to get back to some version of discipline.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"729253848787738624","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989425239139520664","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,292],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"13955342","name":"Trace Vertical Ai Cohen","screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989438237971300635","view_count":292,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1763154012000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"Agreed. I think the biggest mistake people will make is not knowing what game they're playing. An emerging manager with a smaller fund trying to execute on the multi-stage strategy is problematic. You have windows of opportunity where you can do things that are outside your core strategy, and putting guard rails on that bucket is hugely important. It's also really easy to let the guard rails down.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"13955342","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989437434082595107","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[11,103],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"192784466","name":"Jeff Richards","screen_name":"jrichlive","indices":[0,10]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"jrichlive","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989351865327472987","view_count":302,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763133419000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"@jrichlive Wild - will check back on this tweet in a few years so you can tell me about the 4th and 5th","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"192784466","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989350740587077902","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,37],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1449604717038825477","name":"Lucas Dickey","screen_name":"LucasDickey4","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"LucasDickey4","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989169728783524119","view_count":446,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763089994000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"@LucasDickey4 This is a great summary","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1449604717038825477","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989167000841777461","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-16","value":1,"startTime":1763164800000,"endTime":1763251200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[16,77],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1950463458648150016","name":"Stanley Wei","screen_name":"StanleyWei4748","indices":[0,15]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"StanleyWei4748","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989713118495490161","view_count":27,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763219549000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@StanleyWei4748 They were supposed to be the roaring 20s and we got this haha","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1950463458648150016","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989711120332910993","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[7,282],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"6874252","name":"Indus Khaitan","screen_name":"1ndus","indices":[0,6]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"1ndus","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989565798088937553","view_count":64,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763184425000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"There are great firms with more than four to five partners. I would just figure out who you're getting into business with and what that partners is standing at the firm. How long have they been there? Have they made any great investments yet? What's their career history look like? Are they someone who will bounce around a lot? Etc.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"6874252","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989558109883519352","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-17","value":0,"startTime":1763251200000,"endTime":1763337600000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-18","value":117,"startTime":1763337600000,"endTime":1763424000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,279],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990480739989868627","view_count":1894,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1763402564000,"favorite_count":16,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990480739989868627","full_text":"When vibe coding started getting popular, some people said, “we won’t need designers anymore, you can just design things yourself.” \n\nThe opposite happened.\n\nI talked to a well respected designer friend today who said freelance rates are climbing, and hiring a full-time designer in the U.S. now starts at $150K.\n\nHe shared a framing I liked:\n\n\"Teams understand the models are going to make everyone 7/10 designers. Which does eliminate the need for low end of the market. But if you can help someone ship 9 or 10/10 design you’ve never been more valuable because it’s now one of the core means of differentiation.\"\n\nAI made bad design easier. It made great design harder & more expensive.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,279],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990491897375436825","view_count":16659,"bookmark_count":48,"created_at":1763405224000,"favorite_count":101,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":16,"retweet_count":9,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990491897375436825","full_text":"When vibe coding started getting popular, some people said, “we won’t need designers anymore, you can just design things yourself.” \n\nThe opposite happened.\n\nI talked to a well respected designer friend today who said freelance design rates are getting more expensive, and hiring a full-time designer in the U.S. now starts at $150K.\n\nHe shared a framing I liked:\n\n\"Teams understand the models are going to make everyone 7/10 designers. Which does eliminate the need for low end of the market. But if you can help someone ship 9 or 10/10 design you’ve never been more valuable because it’s now one of the core means of differentiation.\"\n\nAI made bad design easier. It also made great design harder & more expensive.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-19","value":247,"startTime":1763424000000,"endTime":1763510400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,146],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/CzdN0xANyq","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1990572770015809922/photo/1","id_str":"1990571616619933696","indices":[147,170],"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5_uVrybMAAQ8U6.png","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/CzdN0xANyq","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":609,"width":568,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":318},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":568},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":534,"h":609},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":305,"h":609},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":609}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/CzdN0xANyq","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1990572770015809922/photo/1","id_str":"1990571616619933696","indices":[147,170],"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5_uVrybMAAQ8U6.png","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/CzdN0xANyq","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":609,"width":568,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":318},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":568},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":534,"h":609},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":305,"h":609},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":609}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990572770015809922","view_count":5620,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1763424506000,"favorite_count":27,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990572770015809922","full_text":"LP inbox right now: a flood of GPs explaining why they didn’t see the Bezos AI deal.\n\n\"Our sourcing engine is being rebuilt from first principles\" https://t.co/CzdN0xANyq","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1990841773799682300","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/ivg0YeXKEN","expanded":"https://twitter.com/yrechtman/status/1990841773799682300","display":"x.com/yrechtman/stat…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990855280654233609","view_count":23462,"bookmark_count":70,"created_at":1763491861000,"favorite_count":79,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":7,"retweet_count":4,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990855280654233609","full_text":"One question that every seed investor should be asking themselves right now is whether they should be focusing more on early traction rounds, as opposed to pre-product investing. \n\nIn the past couple months, we've met a few teams raising rounds at $30M-$40M post-valuation who have real traction ($1-$4m ARR). \n\nAs a seed investor, would you rather invest in one of these rounds at $40m post or a pre-product seed round that calls itself an AI company at a $20M-$30M post? They're basically priced the same. \n\nSome of the early tractions teams call these rounds \"seed extensions,\" and others stretch it to a Series A label. \n\nFor whatever reason, they haven't been treated as \"hot companies\" by the Series A market, but they're building very solid businesses that are growing well. \n\nI haven't come up with an exact terminology for these companies. They're generally not pure-play AI deals, but are often utilizing AI in interesting ways. The headline on the deck doesn't read AI deal, but they're real businesses. \n\nFor the sake of this essay, let's just call them \"AI tweeners\". \n\nThere is a temptation to invest in what is new (ie the brand new AI company raising at $20-$30m post) because you're investing in a cool story & get to help bring a new company to market & call yourself the lead. \n\nBut maybe the $40m \"AI tweener\" is a better bet. By paying a slight premium, you invest in a company that's figured a lot out, has revenue, and is building in a category that likely has less competition. \n\nThe challenge with investing in the $40M post is that you likely called yourself a seed firm to all of your limited partners, so your entry price is going to look like what has historically been called a Series A. Is this strategy drift, or is it being a good investor? \n\nIf your goal is to build the highest performing portfolio, investing in \"AI tweeners\" is the part of market that is likely most undervalued right now. \n\nSo maybe you should stop calling yourself a seed fund & invest in early traction companies while the rest of the market is obsessed with finding the next hot pre-product seed deal. \n\nJust some thoughts.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"3393185261","name":"yoni rechtman","screen_name":"yrechtman","indices":[2202,2212]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990857909635518465","view_count":9799,"bookmark_count":47,"created_at":1763492488000,"favorite_count":73,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":8,"retweet_count":5,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990857909635518465","full_text":"One question that every seed investor should be asking themselves right now is whether they should be focusing more on early traction rounds, as opposed to pre-product investing. \n\nIn the past couple months, we've met a few teams raising rounds at $30M-$40M post-valuation who have real traction ($1-$4m ARR). \n\nAs a seed investor, would you rather invest in one of these rounds at $40m post or a pre-product seed round that calls itself an AI company at a $20M-$30M post? They're basically priced the same. \n\nSome of the early tractions teams call these rounds \"seed extensions,\" and others stretch it to a Series A label. \n\nFor whatever reason, they haven't been treated as \"hot companies\" by the Series A market, but they're building very solid businesses that are growing well. \n\nI haven't come up with an exact terminology for these companies. They're generally not pure-play AI deals, but are often utilizing AI in interesting ways. The headline on the deck doesn't read AI deal, but they're real businesses. \n\nFor the sake of this essay, let's just call them \"AI tweeners\". \n\nThere is a temptation to invest in what is new (ie the brand new AI company raising at $20-$30m post) because you're investing in a cool story & get to help bring a new company to market & call yourself the lead. \n\nBut maybe the $40m \"AI tweener\" is a better bet. By paying a slight premium, you invest in a company that's figured a lot out, has revenue, and is building in a category that likely has less competition. \n\nThe challenge with investing in the $40M post is that you likely called yourself a seed firm to all of your limited partners, so your entry price is going to look like what has historically been called a Series A. Is this strategy drift, or is it being a good investor? \n\nIf your goal is to build the highest performing portfolio, investing in \"AI tweeners\" is the part of market that is likely most undervalued right now. \n\nSo maybe you should stop calling yourself a seed fund & invest in early traction companies while the rest of the market is obsessed with finding the next hot pre-product seed deal. \n\nJust some thoughts.\n\nOriginally written as a response to a tweet by @yrechtman, but creating a separate essay so more people can hopefully read it.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990865081354334636","view_count":7759,"bookmark_count":10,"created_at":1763494198000,"favorite_count":68,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":17,"retweet_count":4,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990865081354334636","full_text":"I am noticing a lot of apathy and despair in the crypto community right now. This is funny to me because we should all be basking in the opportunity to actually build valuable applications and companies right now.\n\nOne of the most common complaints in prior cycles was that crypto founders didn't have a fighting chance to run the experiments that they wanted to test due to regulatory battles. \n\nIn the United States, we have a very supportive regulatory environment right now, and it is possible to be a U.S. crypto founder in categories like Defi which were previously very dicey. \n\nBut for some reason, the mood amongst founders and investors is especially solemn right now.\n\nMy take is that building products and companies that people care about is incredibly hard, especially with AI dominating the headlines. \n\nIt was easy to use regulatory constraints as an excuse in prior cycles, and now that we no longer have that issue, we have to actually go build products that people use every day & care about. \n\nAnd these products can't be another L1/L2 or some abstract technical infrastructure that increases TPS or makes blockchains cheaper. We already have that. \n\nInfra was a convenient area for investors and founders to fund and build because you could TGE and get rich & punt on building applications. \n\nBut today, you have to go build applications that people care about. That's really it. There's almost nothing else to do on the infrastructure side to run the experiments that will validate how big crypto can be. \n\nThe industry needs to stop feeling sorry for itself and go prove that the many, many billions of dollars that have gone to the industry were building towards something meaningful. Stablecoins, payments, etc. are all obvious places to build real consumer value. \n\nNow is the time.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-20","value":0,"startTime":1763510400000,"endTime":1763596800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,228],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1915059354153160706","name":"moneydevkit","screen_name":"money_dev_kit","indices":[42,56]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1991151978953789614","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/EAfA4urbR2","expanded":"https://twitter.com/nickslaney/status/1991151978953789614","display":"x.com/nickslaney/sta…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1991154186755674513","view_count":171,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763563126000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1991154186755674513","full_text":"We’re thrilled to lead the seed round for @money_dev_kit. \n\nThey broke a world record today on the same day they announced the fundraise.\n\nNow the fastest way for anyone on earth to add payments. Builders are going to love this.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-21","value":0,"startTime":1763596800000,"endTime":1763683200000,"tweets":[]}],"nviews":[{"label":"2025-10-22","value":1183790,"startTime":1761004800000,"endTime":1761091200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":true,"display_text_range":[0,270],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rPx7ztdMGQ","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1980504752829132945/photo/1","id_str":"1980501236362153984","indices":[271,294],"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G3wnYZ6WkAAmnCh.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rPx7ztdMGQ","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":12,"y":110,"h":30,"w":30}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":422,"width":750,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":420},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":422,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":370,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":211,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":422}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rPx7ztdMGQ","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1980504752829132945/photo/1","id_str":"1980501236362153984","indices":[271,294],"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G3wnYZ6WkAAmnCh.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rPx7ztdMGQ","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":12,"y":110,"h":30,"w":30}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":422,"width":750,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":420},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":422,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":370,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":211,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":422}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980504752829132945","view_count":1096466,"bookmark_count":2205,"created_at":1761024103000,"favorite_count":28909,"quote_count":298,"reply_count":660,"retweet_count":3461,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"Everyone talks about AI slop. \nNo one talks about PE (private equity) slop.\n\n- restaurants that lost their soul\n- medical practices that feel like assembly lines\n- apartment buildings designed by an Excel formula\n\nThe algorithm didn’t kill culture. The margin model did. https://t.co/rPx7ztdMGQ","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,60],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"932630991298007041","name":"litquidity","screen_name":"litcapital","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"litcapital","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980648813561008268","view_count":24455,"bookmark_count":5,"created_at":1761058450000,"favorite_count":227,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@litcapital haha that’s what I’m saying, impossible to unsee","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"932630991298007041","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980647342371213594","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,51],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1301314271989518336","name":"illiquid","screen_name":"lefttailguy","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"lefttailguy","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980629841155330197","view_count":19708,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761053927000,"favorite_count":277,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@lefttailguy artisanal content, thank you very much","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1301314271989518336","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980628461417804114","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,161],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"156765498","name":"Michael Williams","screen_name":"mxwilliams","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"mxwilliams","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980633611884970415","view_count":14727,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761054826000,"favorite_count":149,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":16,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@mxwilliams maybe they would, most ppl hate going to the dentist for a variety of reasons.\n\n5% feels for a better experience is something ppl would prob pay for.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"156765498","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980632925075894309","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,134],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"14117767","name":"Jonas 🦩","screen_name":"jonaslamis","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"jonaslamis","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980506004510085379","view_count":17431,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761024402000,"favorite_count":126,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@jonaslamis You might be right. Maybe AI slop is just the tipping point that’s making us realize how sloppy the world has always been.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"14117767","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980505576590447033","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[17,63],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1081596786073128960","name":"Old white guy","screen_name":"obrecht_michael","indices":[0,16]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"obrecht_michael","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980676318359666791","view_count":11003,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1761065008000,"favorite_count":129,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@obrecht_michael thanks for sharing, not an easy thing to solve","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1081596786073128960","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980674670094373173","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-23","value":25138,"startTime":1761091200000,"endTime":1761177600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,281],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981026514079805470","view_count":25016,"bookmark_count":69,"created_at":1761148501000,"favorite_count":210,"quote_count":3,"reply_count":26,"retweet_count":24,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981026514079805470","full_text":"There is a very big difference between running a venture fund and building a venture firm. \n\nI get a lot of aspiring venture capitalists who ask me about starting their own firm, and the quick thing I tell them is that they have to love company building & operations as much as they love investing. \n\nAt the end of the day, so much of your time is spent on fundraising, recruiting, and back office. You have to really love that stuff early on (or it least be good at it) when nobody is there to help you out.\n\nIf you don’t love the non-investing stuff or have enough self-awareness to know you're not good at it, you should definitely consider joining a platform. I have friends who are amazingly talented who have decided they only want to focus on investing, and they are very happy & many make a ton of money too. \n\nEasy to run a fund. Much harder to build a firm.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,237],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"935658795098832896","name":"Ibrahim S.","screen_name":"IbrahimS15","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"IbrahimS15","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980849065622683933","view_count":122,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761106194000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980666971650945285","full_text":"@IbrahimS15 This is the single best feedback from an interviewer that I've ever seen. I know it's hard to get past the rejection and the what-ifs of the opportunity, but use this as motivation, and you will do great things. Best of luck.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"935658795098832896","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980666971650945285","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-24","value":57442,"startTime":1761177600000,"endTime":1761264000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981361260852892174","view_count":56764,"bookmark_count":42,"created_at":1761228311000,"favorite_count":96,"quote_count":5,"reply_count":20,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981361260852892174","full_text":"The death of SaaS has been overstated. \n\nWhen VCs or industry analysts say that SaaS is dead, they replace the word SaaS with AI agents or some other descriptor for B2B software.\n\nHuman addiction to technology is well known in the consumer space, and the same applies for anything in the enterprise. \n\nEnterprises are addicted to software, and whether the user is human or an agent doesn't matter. At the end of the day, there will always be a top 1% of founders and companies who design their software in a superior way to their competitors, and those will be massive companies where the TAM is even bigger than what was formerly called SaaS.\n\nSoftware is here to stay (with much more powerful capabilities!), which is such an obvious thing to state yet I'm hearing otherwise from my peers.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[9,288],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"6228302","name":"Sheel Mohnot","screen_name":"pitdesi","indices":[0,8]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"pitdesi","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981402156306760016","view_count":414,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761238061000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981381724702724256","full_text":"This is very true. \n\nI think from the outside, folks who hear this mistake the evolving business model with the death of an entire category of software.\n\nOrganizations are becoming even more software-obsessed, and there is a new generation of products that are quickly displacing incumbents. \n\nSoftware is obviously becoming easier to build, but the opportunity for venture capitalists is still massive. \n\nThese things feel so obvious to type, but you'd be surprised at how many conversations I have that revolve around this very topic.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"6228302","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981381724702724256","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[23,113],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"829946137","name":"Itai | dynamic.xyz","screen_name":"turbahn","indices":[0,8]},{"id_str":"1135606000868872192","name":"Fireblocks","screen_name":"FireblocksHQ","indices":[9,22]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"turbahn","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981417837395923151","view_count":264,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761241800000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981393151530254774","full_text":"@turbahn @FireblocksHQ Congrats, have loved working with you and the team the last few years. First class always.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"829946137","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981393151530254774","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-25","value":212162,"startTime":1761264000000,"endTime":1761350400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981703025946501274","view_count":70,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761309794000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981703025946501274","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else you'll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should!), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. These are some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy and pursue the deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981703548401520684","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761309918000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981703548401520684","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else you'll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should!), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. These investments will stand out in your data room so you might as well get ahead of those conversations and explain your underwriting logic. \n\nThese are also some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy & pursue the really special deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981704081166016556","view_count":57,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761310045000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981704081166016556","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else you'll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. Those investments will stand out in your data room so you might as well get ahead of those conversations and explain your underwriting logic. \n\nThese are also some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy & pursue the really special deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981709123755610507","view_count":199549,"bookmark_count":256,"created_at":1761311248000,"favorite_count":346,"quote_count":18,"reply_count":23,"retweet_count":25,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else it’ll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. Those investments will stand out in your data room so you might as well get ahead of those conversations and explain your underwriting logic. \n\nThese are also some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy & pursue the really special deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,277],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"811350","name":"Alexis Ohanian 🗽","screen_name":"alexisohanian","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"alexisohanian","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981768701885264380","view_count":4259,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761325452000,"favorite_count":24,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@alexisohanian 100% true. I find that newer managers are more risk-averse to exceptions because they don't want to get fired by their LPs. If you study the history of venture capital, many of the best firms today became franchises in critical moments when they made exceptions.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"811350","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981767253252358505","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,286],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"69619073","name":"Andrew D'Souza","screen_name":"andrewdsouza","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"andrewdsouza","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981777971267743913","view_count":1943,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761327662000,"favorite_count":15,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@andrewdsouza Most LPAs don’t have strict parameters around valuations.\n\nThey more often have definitions around:\n\n- what % of fund can go to a single investment \n\n- recycling % \n\n- deployment period \n\nMost of the time these exceptions aren’t made because GPs are scared of being wrong.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"69619073","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981777001078788107","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,220],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1945812818932170753","name":"Neo","screen_name":"neo3141111","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"neo3141111","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981736892283469930","view_count":1741,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761317868000,"favorite_count":15,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@neo3141111 You could look at a long list of hundreds of GPs who have world class track records that have invested after the pre-seed. A very easy list of people to study would be folks like Peter Thiel, Fred Wilson, etc","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1945812818932170753","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981734983279562826","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,23],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"20397708","name":"Niki Scevak","screen_name":"nikiscevak","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"nikiscevak","lang":"fr","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981860895103025450","view_count":1021,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761347433000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@nikiscevak Raise in SF","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"20397708","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981860111879672307","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,45],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"75409972","name":"Josh Porter","screen_name":"joshdotporter","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"joshdotporter","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981818015080673366","view_count":950,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761337209000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@joshdotporter ty great seeing you this week!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"75409972","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981812251968545118","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,25],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1764321378507931648","name":"Rohan","screen_name":"proxy_vector","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"proxy_vector","lang":"ca","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981757033461481979","view_count":933,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761322670000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@proxy_vector 100 percent","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1764321378507931648","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981748076227301597","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,294],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"175934436","name":"Paul Yacoubian","screen_name":"PaulYacoubian","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"PaulYacoubian","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981706003306746307","view_count":1639,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761310504000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981704081166016556","full_text":"Ha, this is a dangerous game to play because exit value is the model input that tends to be the most hand-wavy. It's really easy to change the exit value from $10B to $20B and have your entire model look like a work of art.\n\nI find that newer investors overestimate exit value on their investment proposals, and that the model assumption is normally tied to a 1x RTF (return the fund) outcome when your winners should math out to outcomes that are far greater like 3x-5x net or above. \n\nGetting the RTF model to make sense is becoming harder to build as entry prices become higher. The math just doesn't math out most of the time. So some just change that exit value to $1T and do the deal :)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"175934436","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981704634734711025","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-26","value":658,"startTime":1761350400000,"endTime":1761436800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,132],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"6781512","name":"Martin Tobias (Pre-Seed VC)","screen_name":"MartinGTobias","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"MartinGTobias","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982144968669135150","view_count":658,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761415161000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@MartinGTobias 100%. Fully believe that an 80/20 core vs. \"breaking the rules\" barbell strategy is the best for an early-stage firm.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"6781512","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1982141432950391154","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-27","value":18822,"startTime":1761436800000,"endTime":1761523200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982472740914540939","view_count":880,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1761493308000,"favorite_count":7,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982472740914540939","full_text":"One of the most common questions you’ll get when fundraising for a venture fund is about sourcing. \n\nLPs are ultimately buying into your thesis and your access, so it makes sense that sourcing is one of the first questions.\n\nThe question is hard to answer because sourcing usually comes from many different channels & almost every VC believes their approach is better than their peers’.\n\nI can’t even imagine how confusing it must be for an LP who covers venture as part of a broader portfolio to figure out what’s real and what’s not. They get pitched by hundreds of managers a year, all claiming the same “proprietary deal flow” story.\n\nSo I figured I’d write a quick note on how I think about sourcing.\n\nI like to compare sourcing to multi-channel marketing. You have multiple inputs driving top of funnel, and ideally three or four strategies that create a sourcing flywheel.\n\nIt sometimes feels like LPs are searching for a single channel they can bring to their IC and say, “Look, they have a better sourcing engine.” But relying on one channel is risky. The game changes & so do relationships and competition.\n\nSourcing is never a magic bullet. Despite the debates, I don’t believe anyone has a true proprietary sourcing advantage beyond their reputation.\n\nSpeaking of proprietary networks... \n\nI met with a well-known GP recently who is now investing in a small number of funds & he asked which proprietary networks we have access to. It was a fair question, but I pushed back bc there are no truly proprietary networks in venture anymore.\n\nTake YC, for example. Founders could easily join other accelerators or raise the traditional way, but they choose YC because they trust it will get them further, faster. That trust is the differentiator.\n\nOr look at the handful of firms that have built entire franchises by backing Elon again and again - SpaceX, Tesla, The Boring Company, etc. The sourcing channel is no secret; the access is. And that access comes from relationships earned over decades.\n\nEveryone’s searching for a sourcing “hack.” The truth is, there isn’t one. The only real proprietary network in venture is your reputation. \n\nSo when LPs ask about sourcing, I try to reframe the question. It’s not where we find companies but it’s why the best founders choose to work with us once they’re found. \n\nThat’s the real edge, and it’s built over years, not through a single channel or campaign.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982476724895113555","view_count":17942,"bookmark_count":127,"created_at":1761494258000,"favorite_count":147,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":8,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982476724895113555","full_text":"One of the most common questions you’ll get when fundraising for a venture fund is about sourcing. \n\nLPs are ultimately buying into your thesis and your access, so it makes sense that sourcing is one of the first questions.\n\nThe question is hard to answer because sourcing usually comes from many different channels & almost every VC believes their approach is better than their peers’.\n\nI can’t even imagine how confusing it must be for an LP who covers venture as part of a broader portfolio to figure out what’s real and what’s not. They get pitched by hundreds of managers a year, all claiming the same “proprietary deal flow” story.\n\nSo I figured I’d write a quick note on how I think about sourcing.\n\nI like to compare sourcing to multi-channel marketing. You have multiple inputs driving top of funnel, and ideally three or four strategies that create a sourcing flywheel.\n\nIt sometimes feels like LPs are searching for a single channel they can bring to their IC and say, “Look, they have a better sourcing engine.” But relying on one channel is risky. The game changes & so do relationships and competition.\n\nSourcing is never a magic bullet. Despite the debates, I don’t believe anyone has a true proprietary sourcing advantage beyond their reputation.\n\nSpeaking of proprietary networks... \n\nI met with a well-known GP recently who is now investing in a small number of funds & he asked which proprietary networks we have access to. It was a fair question, but I pushed back bc there are no truly proprietary networks in venture anymore.\n\nTake YC. Founders could easily join other accelerators or raise the traditional way, but they choose YC because they trust it will get them further, faster. YC doesn’t have a proprietary network - it has a brand that founders want to be associated with. They trust YC to be the best Day 1 partner to help them build something valuable.\n\nWhat’s even more interesting is what happens after YC. Because it’s such an efficient marketplace, every venture firm has access to the same company list - it’s one of the most transparent markets in venture. We all know each batch will include a handful of outliers. None of that is proprietary sourcing. The real differentiation is in how firms underwrite conviction early and actually win those deals.\n\nOr look at the handful of firms that have built entire franchises by backing Elon again and again - SpaceX, Tesla, The Boring Company, etc. The sourcing channel is no secret; the access is. And that access comes from relationships earned over decades.\n\nEveryone’s searching for a sourcing “hack.” The truth is, there isn’t one. The only real proprietary network in venture is your reputation. \n\nSo when LPs ask about sourcing, I try to reframe the question. It’s not where we find companies but it’s why the best founders choose to work with us once they’re found. \n\nThat’s the real edge, and it’s built over years, not through a single channel or campaign.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-28","value":4404,"startTime":1761523200000,"endTime":1761609600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,133],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982861967221240040","view_count":417,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761586107000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982861967221240040","full_text":"Every airport lounge is like:\n\n“Our menu is thoughtfully curated by award-winning chef _______” with some random I've never heard of.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982863864191713386","view_count":3987,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761586559000,"favorite_count":21,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982863864191713386","full_text":"Every airport lounge is like:\n\n“Our menu is thoughtfully curated by award-winning chef ____” with some random I've never heard of.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-29","value":0,"startTime":1761609600000,"endTime":1761696000000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-30","value":46858,"startTime":1761696000000,"endTime":1761782400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983566611404521838","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761754107000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983566611404521838","full_text":"I had a funny conversation with an LP a couple weeks back where he said, \"If I hear another venture capitalist say the words 'prepared mind' again, I will go crazy.\" \n\nThere are many terms like this that get repeated in GP land, especially during AGM season when we’re all bumping into each other often: \n\n • Thesis-driven\n • Thematic \n • Research-driven\n • Prepared mind\n • First principles\n\nThe list goes on. \n\nAs a starting point, if you're an investor, you should absolutely be all these things. \n\nYour job is to develop a point of view on the world, identify a set of problems that you think will become big markets, and find the best founders to solve those problems.\n\nThe concept of a prepared mind has mostly been co-opted for fundraising purposes in venture capital, but the concept is still important to practice and understand. \n\nAt its core, a prepared mind means that you have spent enough time in a given market to know when you meet a founder who is solving the right problem at the right time.\n\nThis is literally the job of an investor, so every single venture capitalist should have a prepared mind. \n\nAnyways, enough on this topic for now. I have a meeting with an LP, and I'm going into it with a prepared mind ;)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983567542862970996","view_count":18,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761754329000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983567542862970996","full_text":"I had a funny conversation with an LP a couple weeks back where he said, \"If I hear another venture capitalist say the words 'prepared mind' again, I will go crazy.\" \n\nThere are many terms like this that get repeated in GP land, especially during AGM season when we’re all bumping into each other often: \n\n • Thesis-driven\n • Thematic \n • Research-driven\n • Prepared mind\n • First principles\n\nThe list goes on. \n\nAs a starting point, if you're an investor, you should absolutely practice all these things, but in 99% of cases this isn’t a differentiated approach. \n\nYour job is to develop a point of view on the world, identify a set of problems that you think will become big markets, and find the best founders to solve those problems.\n\nCall it whatever you want but that’s what great investors do. \n\nThe concept of a prepared mind has mostly been co-opted for fundraising purposes in venture capital, but the concept is still important to practice and understand. \n\nAt its core, a prepared mind means that you have spent enough time in a given market to know when you meet a founder who is solving the right problem at the right time.\n\nThis is literally the job of an investor, so every single venture capitalist should have a prepared mind. \n\nAnyways, enough on this topic for now. I have a meeting with an LP, and I'm going into it with a prepared mind ;)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983568035559419942","view_count":11074,"bookmark_count":34,"created_at":1761754447000,"favorite_count":83,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":10,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983568035559419942","full_text":"I had a fun conversation with an LP a couple weeks back where he said, \"If I hear another venture capitalist say the words 'prepared mind' again, I will go crazy.\" \n\nThere are many terms like this that get repeated in GP land, especially during AGM season when we’re all bumping into each other often: \n\n • Thesis-driven\n • Thematic \n • Research-driven\n • Prepared mind\n • First principles\n\nThe list goes on. \n\nAs a starting point, if you're an investor, you should absolutely practice all these things, but in 99% of cases this isn’t a differentiated approach. \n\nBut yes, your job is to develop a point of view on the world, identify a set of problems that you think will become big markets, and find the best founders to solve those problems.\n\nCall it whatever you want but that’s what great investors do. \n\nThe concept of a prepared mind has mostly been co-opted for fundraising purposes in venture capital, but it’s still important to practice and understand. \n\nAt its core, a prepared mind means that you have spent enough time in a given market to know when you meet a founder who is solving the right problem at the right time.\n\nThis is literally the job of an investor, so every single venture capitalist should have a prepared mind. \n\nAnyways, enough on this topic for now. I have a meeting with an LP, and I'm going into it with a prepared mind ;)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,295],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983615157277487153","view_count":21522,"bookmark_count":56,"created_at":1761765681000,"favorite_count":73,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":13,"retweet_count":8,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983615157277487153","full_text":"Engagement -> Retention -> Monetization used to be the funnel of building products & companies. \n\nMonetization -> Engagement -> Retention is the order that I'm seeing founders prioritize today in the AI age.\n\nI love monetization & spent 5 years of my life waking up every day trying to increase subs/a la carte purchases while leading the revenue team at the top grossing app in the world. \n\nSo you would think I'd agree that monetization is what everybody should spend their time thinking about, but the answer is far more nuanced. \n\nWe hear the words \"Vibe Revenue\" or \"Experimental Revenue\" being thrown out a lot this year in podcasts and newsletters, and those are accurate terms to describe what so much of monetization feels like today. \n\nIn prior cycles, founders had to earn the right to focus on monetization by building a great product first. \n\nA great product can be subjective - we use the words 'taste' and 'craft' a lot, but you can also measure it by looking first at engagement & then studying retention. \n\nThe problem with focusing on monetization too early is that you create a false sense of success, especially if you haven't seen renewal cycles yet. \n\nI am guessing there is a significant percentage of new companies who stare at their engagement and retention data all day long (which might be going up & to the right) & know there are deep flaws in their product. \n\nBut they lean on monetization ($0-$10m in a year!) to make it seem like they've found product-market fit with their own teams & investors. \n\nIt's a lot of fun to make money. I had the most fun ever in my operating career leading revenue teams. It can be addicting at times. \n\nBut the only reason we became the top-grossing app in the world is because we had best-in-class engagement and retention metrics for our category. We earned the right to monetize. \n\nI hope we get back to a world where everything starts with engagement and retention. Then we can talk about revenue.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,96],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1983617932791050265","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/voxOtB2akT","expanded":"https://twitter.com/spenserskates/status/1983617932791050265","display":"x.com/spenserskates/…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983637002928189443","view_count":14244,"bookmark_count":8,"created_at":1761770890000,"favorite_count":69,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":6,"retweet_count":4,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983637002928189443","full_text":"100%. The feature-vs-company blur might be the defining question of this AI cycle for investors.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-31","value":169970,"startTime":1761782400000,"endTime":1761868800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,279],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1219566488325017602","name":"Supabase","screen_name":"supabase","indices":[776,785]},{"id_str":"24486938","name":"Nikhil Basu Trivedi","screen_name":"nbt","indices":[2899,2903]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983834443648278593","view_count":148751,"bookmark_count":122,"created_at":1761817963000,"favorite_count":237,"quote_count":6,"reply_count":47,"retweet_count":13,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"I had a conversation with an investor yesterday who claimed there hasn’t been a hit consumer app in over five years.\n\nMy response: ChatGPT is a consumer app.\n\nHe pushed back saying “It started as a research lab, not a consumer company.”\n\nThat convo made me realize how broken our definition of “consumer” has become.\n\nYears ago, I invested in Superhuman after watching my friends (and my Twitter feed) rave about it nonstop. At the time, I was working at a consumer company, yet I never questioned whether Superhuman was “consumer” or not.\n\nPeople love Superhuman for both personal and work use & it’s a daily habit with engagement and retention stronger than most social apps. If that’s not consumer behavior, what is?\n\nThis might sound surprising to some, but I also viewed @supabase from a consumer lens when we invested in the pre-seed, despite it being an open source dev tool. More than the underlying technology, I was most fascinated by the bottoms up nature of how developers were adopting the database and how passionate the early community was about the product.\n\nOpen source projects arguably have stronger communities than most consumer products, and the behaviors are social by nature. They have some of most interesting network effects as every incremental developer makes the project stronger. This aligns perfectly with the classic definition of network effects. \n\nI’ve also always believed that products built by product-first founders, designed for broad, personal use should be considered consumer products. \n\nBut somewhere along the way, we invented the term prosumer, and it’s confused everyone. \n\nIt made these products sound like mini-enterprise tools, which undersells that they’re designed for mass-market behaviors wrapped in productivity.\n\nBy that logic, Superhuman, ChatGPT, Perplexity, and a growing list of “non-consumer” tools are absolutely consumer products.\n\nChatGPT alone has over 750 million weekly active users which is mainstream adoption by any definition. And as it evolves into agentic e-commerce and video gen tools like Sora, its use cases are only getting more personal.\n\nWhy does this matter?\n\nBecause category definitions drive fundraising.\n\nIf you’re a founder pitching a “consumer” product, your pool of potential investors shrinks dramatically. If you just look at how venture firms organize internally, they often literally split their teams by enterprise and consumer, which makes no sense to me. \n\nThe same goes for VCs pitching LPs where consumer is still viewed as a cyclical category. If you send a consumer venture fund deck to a large group of LPs, many categorically wouldn't take your pitch. \n\nIn reality “consumer” today looks nothing like “social, local, mobile” which is how so many people think of consumer. \n\nWork and life are blending, and the products we use every day at home & at work don’t fit cleanly into old boxes.\n\nMy friend @nbt once wrote about the consumerization of the enterprise saying:\n\n“Amazon the largest e-commerce (consumer!) company in the world, offers Amazon Web Services, the largest cloud services (enterprise!) business in the world.\n\nNVIDIA, the largest personal computer graphics (consumer!) company in the world, offers graphics processing units (GPUs) for artificial intelligence applications (enterprise!), and has seen its market cap grow 20X in the past decade since this dual focus.”\n\nThe next generation of breakout apps won’t be defined by where they’re used, but by how deeply they integrate into daily life.\n\nWe’re in the golden age of consumer products. And yes, ChatGPT counts.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,172],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1542601224654127105","name":"Helius","screen_name":"heliuslabs","indices":[11,22]},{"id_str":"1309886201944473600","name":"mert | helius.dev","screen_name":"0xMert_","indices":[74,82]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1983479334947176680","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/LIavHNiSYf","expanded":"https://twitter.com/0xMert_/status/1983479334947176680","display":"x.com/0xMert_/status…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983884450229579777","view_count":11583,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1761829886000,"favorite_count":48,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":5,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983884450229579777","full_text":"We had our @heliuslabs board meeting yesterday. \n\nThe engineering pace of @0xMert_ and the entire team is wild right now.\n\nAnd the roadmap is about to get VERY interesting.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,279],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/uNgGonZr3V","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1983891914207469656/photo/1","id_str":"1983891704093798401","indices":[280,303],"media_key":"3_1983891704093798401","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4gy_mda8AE6LL8.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/uNgGonZr3V","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":217,"y":53,"h":88,"w":88}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":872,"w":766,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":872,"w":766,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":680,"w":597,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":872,"width":766,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":429},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":766},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":765,"h":872},{"x":152,"y":0,"w":436,"h":872},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":872}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1983891704093798401"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/uNgGonZr3V","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1983891914207469656/photo/1","id_str":"1983891704093798401","indices":[280,303],"media_key":"3_1983891704093798401","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4gy_mda8AE6LL8.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/uNgGonZr3V","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":217,"y":53,"h":88,"w":88}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":872,"w":766,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":872,"w":766,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":680,"w":597,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":872,"width":766,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":429},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":766},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":765,"h":872},{"x":152,"y":0,"w":436,"h":872},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":872}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1983891704093798401"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983891914207469656","view_count":5435,"bookmark_count":19,"created_at":1761831665000,"favorite_count":24,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983891914207469656","full_text":"I’ve been reading \"Who Knew\" by Barry Diller this week. \n\nI had the chance to meet Barry twice during my early days at Tinder.\n\nThe first time was three days before Christmas in 2015. I was still new at the company and trying to make a name for myself, so I showed up on December 22nd with just a few others.\n\n“Who’s that guy in the tracksuit?” one of our youngest engineers asked, looking up from his monitor.\n\nI glanced over and saw Barry Diller, owner of IAC and one of Tinder’s biggest shareholders.\n\nI didn’t know it at the time, but Barry (then 75 years old) had a tradition of visiting the Tinder office right before Christmas every year. He’d walk the floor asking questions, genuinely curious about what everyone was building.\n\nI watched him approach one of our engineers and ask, “What are you working on?”\n\nThe engineer started explaining what he was doing in very technical terms, and Barry listened without interrupting. I don’t think the engineer knew who he was because if he did, I’m pretty sure he would’ve been a lot more nervous explaining his code!\n\nA year later, in 2016, I made sure to be in the office those same few days before Christmas. The office was mostly empty again and we had just moved into a much larger space.\n\nSure enough, the guy in the tracksuit showed up again, right on cue. Barry Diller.\n\nHe made his rounds, saying hello and asking the few of us still in the office the same question: “What are you working on?”\n\nOne of the central themes of \"Who Knew\" and of Barry’s career is his obsession with understanding how things work at the most fundamental level:\n\n\"Only if I slowed everything down could I begin to understand all the parts and then try to rearrange them into something coherent. I tend to make things worse in the beginning as I fumble around trying to get to basic truths. Instinct, which I prize almost all else, doesn’t work very well for me in abstruse matters.\n\nI have to get to the core DNA on any matter, its logical essence, before I can add anything of value. This takes a lot of time, often to the irritation of faster thinkers, but when it does crystallize, I can’t be deterred.\n\nI listen with an extra ear, highly attuned to hear a new truth among the cacophony of voices in the room. When I catch that note, no matter what I might have thought before, I’ll change course in a second.\n\nIf I’ve ever had any kind of secret sauce, it’s the ability to hear conflicting, creative ideas bombarded around the room and extract something valuable.\n\nRecently in a meeting, someone complained that I wasn’t being consistent. I replied that I’m never consistent; I’ll turn on a dime if I hear a better truth.” \n- (Barry Diller, Who Knew)\n\nLooking back, I realize that when he asked what we were building, it wasn’t about oversight or management control. It was pure curiosity.\n\nMost leaders want to look smart. Barry wanted to get smart and understand the smallest molecule of what we were building, even on the sleepy days before Christmas.\n\nThe best investors and leaders don’t chase outcomes. They want to understand the wiring underneath.\n\nShow up, ask questions & keep asking until it makes sense. The tracksuit is optional.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[11,161],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"441679284","name":"brett goldstein","screen_name":"thatguybg","indices":[0,10]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"thatguybg","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983843170493382696","view_count":778,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761820044000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@thatguybg Most consumer apps have evolved their business models to subscriptions (same as bottoms up enterprise) and most have tiered pricing at this point too.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"441679284","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983842584788398438","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,293],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"13955342","name":"Trace Vertical Ai Cohen","screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983868789059154119","view_count":518,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761826152000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@Trace_Cohen 100%. On Supabase, they had a cultish community who loved the product before the pre-seed.\n\nAs an investor who does enterprise & consumer like myself, it was helpful to underwrite through a consumer lens.\n\nNow it's a mass market developer product selling to large enterprises.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"13955342","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983867417655750680","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[11,110],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1979921","name":"Josh Elman","screen_name":"joshelman","indices":[0,10]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"joshelman","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983892716288405682","view_count":930,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761831857000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@joshelman 100%. Also fwiw I think Josh Elman is invested in almost all the best consumer apps of his vintage!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1979921","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983892303245885616","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,85],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"35647451","name":"Turner Novak 🍌🧢","screen_name":"TurnerNovak","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"TurnerNovak","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983927717734047759","view_count":667,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761840202000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@TurnerNovak Haha! This was before i got pitched because someone thought I was an LP.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"35647451","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983926158862262518","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,43],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1054947848","name":"Nicole Priel","screen_name":"smallbigtalk","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"smallbigtalk","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983846327105544322","view_count":212,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761820797000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@smallbigtalk would love to read the thesis","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1054947848","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983846102391791901","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,269],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"3014388155","name":"Jeddi","screen_name":"antinertia","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"antinertia","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983857862607827087","view_count":232,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761823547000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@antinertia Prosumer is what they’ve called it historically but those companies tend to get discounted in fundraising from what I’ve seen.\n\nProbably because investors view them as being “in between” both markets. \n\nSo I don’t advise calling yourself a prosumer company.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"3014388155","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983857075298943121","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,32],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"41771957","name":"Ryan Morris","screen_name":"RyanMorris55","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"RyanMorris55","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983893392791925073","view_count":161,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761832018000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@RyanMorris55 Thank you brother!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"41771957","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983893276349415508","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,179],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"2363641","name":"jason yeh","screen_name":"jasonoliver","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"jasonoliver","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983952515470352895","view_count":431,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761846114000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@jasonoliver 100%. And shopping is coming fast with agentic e-commerce. ChatGPT (and its competitors) will end up owning dominant market share across multiple consumer categories.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"2363641","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983951551866831342","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[9,227],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"150388200","name":"Warren Shaeffer","screen_name":"wwshaef","indices":[0,8]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"wwshaef","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983946533159772285","view_count":272,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761844688000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@wwshaef I agree with your definition. Simple is very useful. \n\nMost bottoms-up software has consumer overlap. \n\nProductivity Software is a decent label but tends to devalue companies because there haven’t been many huge exits.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"150388200","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983945638405611746","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-01","value":1110,"startTime":1761868800000,"endTime":1761955200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,124],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"39191312","name":"Kirsten Green","screen_name":"kirstenagreen","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"kirstenagreen","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1984113931565330944","view_count":863,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761884598000,"favorite_count":7,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1984107536052842496","full_text":"@kirstenagreen “ChatGPT wasn’t necessarily designed as a consumer product, but consumers claimed it anyway.”\n\nExactly right.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"39191312","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1984107536052842496","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[7,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"22961818","name":"Todd Jackson","screen_name":"tjack","indices":[0,6]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"tjack","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1984358200276382017","view_count":247,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761942837000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@tjack That's a great list, and 100% agree.\n\nConsumer gets anchored on social and things like DTC which is an outdated definition.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"22961818","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1984344313393004585","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-02","value":11258,"startTime":1761955200000,"endTime":1762041600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/cf2xeuTten","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1984669264100618636/photo/1","id_str":"1984666463513559043","indices":[277,300],"media_key":"3_1984666463513559043","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4rzoiNbQAMI02X.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/cf2xeuTten","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1067,"w":1600,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":800,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":453,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":1067,"width":1600,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":72,"w":1600,"h":896},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1067,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":936,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":534,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1600,"h":1067}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1984666463513559043"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1718560501825933312","name":"Discipulus Ventures","screen_name":"DiscipulusVent","indices":[38,53]},{"id_str":"1213544133878370304","name":"Jakob Diepenbrock","screen_name":"jakobdiepen","indices":[73,85]},{"id_str":"1718560501825933312","name":"Discipulus Ventures","screen_name":"DiscipulusVent","indices":[38,53]},{"id_str":"1213544133878370304","name":"Jakob Diepenbrock","screen_name":"jakobdiepen","indices":[73,85]},{"id_str":"1333613797907582976","name":"Augustus Doricko","screen_name":"ADoricko","indices":[519,528]},{"id_str":"1716643091137056768","name":"Rainmaker Technology Corporation","screen_name":"RainmakerCorp","indices":[534,548]},{"id_str":"1152136922694766593","name":"Ted Feldmann","screen_name":"teddyfeld","indices":[550,560]},{"id_str":"1843811438332391427","name":"Durin","screen_name":"DurinMining","indices":[566,578]},{"id_str":"1435266698701991936","name":"Isaiah Taylor - making nuclear reactors","screen_name":"isaiah_p_taylor","indices":[610,626]},{"id_str":"1676587706896490496","name":"Valar Atomics","screen_name":"valaratomics","indices":[632,645]},{"id_str":"1213544133878370304","name":"Jakob Diepenbrock","screen_name":"jakobdiepen","indices":[657,669]},{"id_str":"1718560501825933312","name":"Discipulus Ventures","screen_name":"DiscipulusVent","indices":[2816,2831]}]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/cf2xeuTten","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1984669264100618636/photo/1","id_str":"1984666463513559043","indices":[277,300],"media_key":"3_1984666463513559043","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4rzoiNbQAMI02X.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/cf2xeuTten","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1067,"w":1600,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":800,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":453,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":1067,"width":1600,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":72,"w":1600,"h":896},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1067,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":936,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":534,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1600,"h":1067}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1984666463513559043"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1984669264100618636","view_count":11258,"bookmark_count":16,"created_at":1762017000000,"favorite_count":66,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":9,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1984669264100618636","full_text":"I spent Thursday in El Segundo at the @DiscipulusVent Demo Day hosted by @jakobdiepen and team. \n\nAs I walked up to the venue, I immediately saw three Bay Area investors standing in line. \n\nAll of them had flown in from San Francisco for the event, which was great to see. But when I walked through the doors, I realized it wasn’t just a Bay Area thing. The room was packed with investors from all over the country who’d made the same trip. Clearly, something real is happening here.\n\nThe day started with a panel with @ADoricko from @RainmakerCorp, @teddyfeld from @DurinMining (Ch. 1 portfolio company), and @isaiah_p_taylor from @valaratomics along with @jakobdiepen - who gave a quick history lesson on El Segundo’s roots.\n\nBefore World War II, this city was home to Douglas Aircraft, builder of the SBD Dauntless dive bomber and a symbol of American industrial strength. It’s no accident that so many “America First” companies are being built here again. Founders in El Segundo are carrying that legacy forward.\n\nThey showed a map of the current startup ecosystem, which is 55+ companies, and most of them have come into existence since 2023. \n\nI know 55 companies doesn't sound like a huge number, but as you think about the venture capital interest and momentum that El Segundo has, it's easy to imagine that number becoming 100’s and 1000’s in years to come in the city and surrounding areas. \n\nOne of the other most interesting messages was how El Segundo is evolving from being a bit of a meme (which was very intentional to get people to pay attention) to now deploying products in the physical world. \n\nAugustus from Rainmaker had just gotten back from a trip to Oregon where they deployed rain the prior day (I believe he said the cloud seeding operation was 100m+ gallons). \n\nTed from Durin had recently successfully completed his first drilling operation in Nevada. Both companies have done so on modest budgets, and the founders challenged the idea that hard tech is as capital-intensive as most venture capitalists think. \n\nThe demo day featured ten companies spanning a wide range of sectors, all united around one core theme: strengthening America.\n\nThese founders are tackling hard, meaningful problems in areas like energy, autonomous manufacturing, commodity trading, heavy equipment procurement, autonomous farming, and oil and gas.\n\nIt’s worth noting that many of the companies aren’t pure hardware plays. Some are software-first, and others are software-enabled hardware, which, frankly, is what all hardware is becoming.\n\nMy takeaway is that there doesn’t need to be such a hard divide between hardware and software investors. These worlds are starting to blend, and I expect that collaboration to accelerate over the next few years.\n\nWhat’s clear is that El Segundo is here to stay & that @DiscipulusVent is building something special (I’m a proud LP in the fund). The founders here are working on serious problems, and the momentum is real. I’d bet the next demo day will draw an even bigger crowd of investors from across the country.\n\nVery bullish on El Segundo & the next chapter for LA tech.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-03","value":2379,"startTime":1762041600000,"endTime":1762128000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,277],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1984846679720542704","view_count":2379,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1762059299000,"favorite_count":21,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":6,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1984846679720542704","full_text":"I grew up in the Bay Area as a Giants fan, but now live in Los Angeles and goes without saying, this city earned a championship this year. Congratulations to the Dodgers.\n\nFor anyone who’s been here, 2025 has been a brutal year for Los Angeles. The January 7th fires marked the start of years of loss and rebuilding. Tonight’s win gives people here something to rally around, something that actually feels good again.\n\nSports have a way of healing pain and heartbreak. Being in L.A. tonight feels like the city finally got a moment of relief.\n\nCongratulations to the Dodgers and to Los Angeles.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-04","value":0,"startTime":1762128000000,"endTime":1762214400000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-05","value":9220,"startTime":1762214400000,"endTime":1762300800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,54],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1985639448785174836","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/8rm1V9sGlK","expanded":"https://twitter.com/uialexk/status/1985639448785174836","display":"x.com/uialexk/status…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1985707818230452710","view_count":9198,"bookmark_count":5,"created_at":1762264611000,"favorite_count":26,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1985707818230452710","full_text":"We have entered the large narrow sans serif slop phase","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,291],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1457278696931405828","name":"rosie (🔟/🔟)","screen_name":"therosieum","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"therosieum","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1985840026744189139","view_count":22,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762296132000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1984987750647333350","full_text":"This was a great post.\n\n“The problem is, you can’t build anything meaningful in 18 months. Real infrastructure takes at least 3–5 years. Real product-market fit requires iteration over years, not quarters.”\n\nThat said, I actually think those timelines are compressing.\n\nInfra can now be built in 1–2 years, and PMF can happen in weeks or months for strong applications.\n\nWe just need more original ideas - not the 75th prediction market.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1457278696931405828","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1984987750647333350","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-06","value":0,"startTime":1762300800000,"endTime":1762387200000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-07","value":8735,"startTime":1762387200000,"endTime":1762473600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,134],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"768929915844513792","name":"Jamesin Seidel","screen_name":"seidtweets","indices":[123,134]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1986437434213544227","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/XjktPxYNjP","expanded":"https://twitter.com/viraj__acharya/status/1986437434213544227","display":"x.com/viraj__acharya…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986494295663386907","view_count":4971,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762452122000,"favorite_count":9,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986494295663386907","full_text":"Jamesin killed it as always.\n\nThe best venture firms earn the right to be “partners” & not just investors. \n\nWell done @seidtweets","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"44196397","name":"Elon Musk","screen_name":"elonmusk","indices":[64,73]},{"id_str":"44196397","name":"Elon Musk","screen_name":"elonmusk","indices":[64,73]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986557513740001382","view_count":3764,"bookmark_count":4,"created_at":1762467194000,"favorite_count":18,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986557513740001382","full_text":"Tesla AGM right now is all about the robots 🤖\nA few quotes from @elonmusk:\n\nOn scale:\n“Optimus is going to be the biggest product of all time. Bigger than cell phones. Bigger than anything else.”\n\nOn use cases:\n“There will be 3–5 industrial robots for every personal robot.”\n\nOn speed:\n“We’re going to launch the fastest production ramp of any large manufactured product, starting with a million-unit per year production line in Fremont.”\n\nRobots aren’t coming. They’re already here.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-08","value":21540,"startTime":1762473600000,"endTime":1762560000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986839703291896042","view_count":9,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762534473000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986839703291896042","full_text":"The “hype video” startup trend will fade, just like every other form of attention arbitrage.\n\nI say that as someone who actually went to film school and loves video. But we’ve reached the point where agencies are producing hype videos for fundraising rounds just to trigger VC FOMO.\n\nVirality has never been easier to manufacture, or shorter-lived.\n\nSpending $25K on a product video might make sense from a valuation or dilution standpoint. But is that really the culture you want to build?\n\nAnd when the investors who FOMO’d into your round realize the growth story doesn’t hold up, how do you think that plays out?\n\nBuild great products. The hype video era is already getting stale.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986841507282964826","view_count":113,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1762534903000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986841507282964826","full_text":"The “hype video” startup trend will fade, just like every other form of attention arbitrage.\n\nI say that as someone who actually went to film school and loves video. But we’ve reached the point where agencies are producing hype videos for fundraising rounds just to trigger VC fomo. \n\nIt’s now part of the fundraising playbook:\n\nMake a pitch deck. Make a hype video. Go a little bit viral. Rinse and repeat.\n\nVirality has never been easier to manufacture, but it’s also never been shorter-lived.\n\nSpending $25K on a product video might make sense from a valuation or dilution standpoint. But is that really the culture you want to build?\n\nAnd when the investors who FOMO’d into your round realize the growth story doesn’t hold up, how do you think that plays out?\n\nBuild great products that solve real problems. The hype video era is already stale.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,275],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986848712908546121","view_count":18228,"bookmark_count":32,"created_at":1762536621000,"favorite_count":92,"quote_count":7,"reply_count":13,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986848712908546121","full_text":"The “hype video” startup trend will fade, just like every other form of attention arbitrage.\n\nI say that as someone who actually went to film school and loves video. But we’ve reached the point where agencies are producing hype videos for fundraising rounds just to create VC fomo. \n\nIt’s now part of the fundraising playbook:\n\nMake a pitch deck. Make a hype video. Go a little bit viral. Rinse & repeat.\n\nVirality has never been easier to manufacture, but it’s also never been shorter-lived. The investors you actually want around for the next decade can tell the difference.\n\nSpending $25K on a product video might make sense from a valuation or dilution standpoint. But is that really the culture you want to build?\n\nAnd when the investors who FOMO’d into your round realize the growth story doesn’t hold up, how do you think that plays out?\n\nBuild great products that solve real problems. The hype video era is already stale.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,215],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986892752286883962","view_count":3190,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1762547121000,"favorite_count":18,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986892752286883962","full_text":"The most important part of “staying in crypto” as an early stage investor is being completely unemotional about the markets.\n\nI feel nothing when our crypto book swings 20–30%.\n\nMaybe that’s unhealthy. But it works.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-09","value":175857,"startTime":1762560000000,"endTime":1762646400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,234],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"787810160513200129","name":"Chapter One","screen_name":"chapterone","indices":[50,61]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986969884362940562","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762565511000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986969884362940562","full_text":"Yesterday we locked in two deals that will define @chapterone’s next chapter.\n\nOne: an incubation with a major IP partner (a year in the making).\n\nTwo: a product we’ll launch publicly soon with a major tech platform. \n\nAlways cooking.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,239],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"787810160513200129","name":"Chapter One","screen_name":"chapterone","indices":[50,61]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986970650532327456","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762565693000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986970650532327456","full_text":"Yesterday we locked in two deals that will define @chapterone’s next chapter.\n\nOne: an incubation with a major IP partner (a year in the making).\n\nTwo: a product we’ll launch publicly soon with a well known tech platform. \n\nAlways cooking.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,232],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"787810160513200129","name":"Chapter One","screen_name":"chapterone","indices":[50,61]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986970741779407185","view_count":6055,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1762565715000,"favorite_count":48,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986970741779407185","full_text":"Yesterday we locked in two deals that will define @chapterone’s next chapter.\n\nOne: an incubation with a major IP partner (a year in the making).\n\nTwo: a product we’ll launch publicly soon with a big tech platform. \n\nAlways cooking.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,281],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987236350836494777","view_count":164696,"bookmark_count":200,"created_at":1762629041000,"favorite_count":476,"quote_count":11,"reply_count":30,"retweet_count":21,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1987236350836494777","full_text":"Startup beef is always funny.\n\nYears ago, I worked at a marketplace & we decided Craigslist was our enemy. We built narratives around “beating” them, studied their every move, and even shaped internal goals around taking their users. I’m pretty sure they never thought about us once.\n\nLater, we shifted our obsession to TaskRabbit. Remember Taskrabbit? We spent so much energy trying to outdo them w/ pricing wars, feature debates, endless comparisons. But in the end, neither of us became a breakout, venture-scale success.\n\nThe real competitors were the ones playing a much bigger game: DoorDash, Instacart, Uber. We knew those founders personally, hung out with them at the same SF parties, but never saw them as direct competition. Turns out, they were just playing a different sport entirely.\n\nI see the same thing today in AI and crypto. Startups beefing over tiny overlaps, chasing small wins. Before you pick a fight, make sure you’re actually in a market worth winning. \n\nOtherwise, you’ll wake up every morning obsessed with a game that doesn’t matter.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,54],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"954060455831580672","name":"Molly O’Shea","screen_name":"MollySOShea","indices":[0,12]},{"id_str":"768929915844513792","name":"Jamesin Seidel","screen_name":"seidtweets","indices":[21,32]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"MollySOShea","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987168354260689078","view_count":85,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762612830000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986824069094822264","full_text":"@MollySOShea Talk to @seidtweets - she will have ideas","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"954060455831580672","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1986824069094822264","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,107],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"21706010","name":"Daniel Pearson","screen_name":"danielpearson","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"danielpearson","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987239060021387360","view_count":5021,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762629687000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1987236350836494777","full_text":"@danielpearson Love that Peter Thiel quote and very true.\n\nIf only we had venture funds at that point haha.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"21706010","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987237809229599115","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-10","value":0,"startTime":1762646400000,"endTime":1762732800000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-11","value":0,"startTime":1762732800000,"endTime":1762819200000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-12","value":0,"startTime":1762819200000,"endTime":1762905600000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-13","value":0,"startTime":1762905600000,"endTime":1762992000000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-14","value":67507,"startTime":1762992000000,"endTime":1763078400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"4188045073","name":"Jordi Hays","screen_name":"jordihays","indices":[828,838]},{"id_str":"30736937","name":"John Coogan","screen_name":"johncoogan","indices":[841,852]},{"id_str":"1838288550569349120","name":"TBPN","screen_name":"tbpn","indices":[856,861]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988981359013163127","view_count":63,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763045084000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988981359013163127","full_text":"Venture Capital Musical Chairs\n\nWhen I first got into venture capital, I assumed that General Partners stayed at firms for most of their careers. From the outside, venture capital shops looked like stable institutions. At the very least, they felt more permanent than the startups they backed.\n\nThat assumption was dead wrong.\n\nBack then, I was at Tinder and a scout for Index Ventures. It was an awesome experience, but I definitely underestimated how turbulent things can be inside other venture firms I was co-investing with and getting to know more closely.\n\nThat turbulence has only accelerated in the last few years. Every week, I see partners leaving, firms reshaping their strategies, and LP relationships shifting. \n\nIt feels like watching ESPN at this point waiting for Shams to break some trade news. Luckily we have @jordihays & @johncoogan at @tbpn.\n\nFor founders, venture capital musical chairs feels like something happening on the other side of the table. You sense the industry shifting, but you’re busy building your company. Whatever chaos is unfolding inside venture firms isn’t exactly top of mind.\n\nBut you should be thinking about it a lot more. And here's why. \n\nWhen you raise from a venture firm, you don’t really raise from the firm. You raise from a specific partner. You take their calls, you trust their judgment, and you build your relationship around them. They’re the one who sits on your board, texts you late at night, and ideally, fights for you when things get tough. \n\nWhen they leave, you lose that advocate. Suddenly, the person who cared most about your survival inside the partnership is gone.\n\nIn today’s venture world, that partner may not even be around by the time your next fundraise rolls around. \n\nI was talking to a former partner at a multi-stage fund yesterday, and she told me that the average partner at a venture firm sticks around for 7 years. And when they leave, the implications for you are important to understand.\n\nWhat often happens next is that you become an “adopted company.” Other partners don’t rush to claim you, because supporting you doesn’t count toward their scoreboard. Venture is a business built on attribution, and if they didn’t source or lead your deal, the incentive to spend time helping you is low. You end up feeling like the kid at the dinner table nobody wants to introduce.\n\nBoard dynamics only make the problem worse. If your original partner leaves, their seat might be reassigned to someone who barely knows your business, or worse, someone who doesn’t care to. \n\nNow you’re wasting cycles re-educating a new person who has little emotional or financial attachment to your success. Instead of focusing on building, you’re back at square one, explaining the basics to someone who isn’t invested in your story.\n\nAnd then there’s the signaling risk. Other investors notice when your champion departs their firm. LPs notice too. Even if your company is performing well, your life will change.\n\n“Is the firm still supporting you?” You’ll get asked this question dozens of times by other investors, potential hires, and media. You can explain this pretty easily, but it’s just one of those annoying questions that you’ll have to talk about for many years to come.\n\nThis isn’t meant to be morbid. It’s a reminder to choose your partners carefully and understand their career trajectory and standing inside the firm.\n\nFundraising is chaotic right now. Bubble or not, founders and investors are speed-dating their way into big rounds, and everyone’s expected to build trust on a timeline that would be insane in any normal business relationship.\n\nMy best advice is don’t assume the partner you pick will be there forever. Get to know the rest of the partnership, understand how they think, and make sure you actually believe in the firm’s culture and ethos.\n\nA friend put it well yesterday: the only person who’s almost certainly sticking around is the founder of the firm. That’s the longest term partner you're getting into business with. You may not get much access to the founder(s) of a firm, but it’s still worth knowing their story, their reputation, and how they’ve shown up for founders over time.\n\nIf your deal sponsor is gone in a few years, would you still be proud to call that firm your investor? \n\nIf the answer is yes, great, but make sure you’re diligencing them as hard as they’re diligencing you.\n\nVenture Capital Musical Chairs isn’t stopping anytime soon. If anything, it will get much spicier as we understand which partners took massive AI swings that will generate many billions for their firms, or leave their firms holding the bag.\n\nIn either case, your partner still might leave. \n\nInvestors who crushed this AI wave might use that momentum to spin out and start their own firms. And the ones who didn’t get big wins in this cycle might be looking for new jobs soon for reasons we all understand.\n\nAs a founder, choose your partners carefully and make damn sure you’re not the last one left standing when the music stops. \n\nFin.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"4188045073","name":"Jordi Hays","screen_name":"jordihays","indices":[859,869]},{"id_str":"30736937","name":"John Coogan","screen_name":"johncoogan","indices":[872,883]},{"id_str":"1838288550569349120","name":"TBPN","screen_name":"tbpn","indices":[887,892]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988983199872004228","view_count":66136,"bookmark_count":126,"created_at":1763045523000,"favorite_count":165,"quote_count":6,"reply_count":19,"retweet_count":23,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"Venture Capital Musical Chairs (And Why Founders Should Care)\n\nWhen I first got into venture capital, I assumed that General Partners stayed at firms for most of their careers. From the outside, venture capital shops looked like stable institutions. At the very least, they felt more permanent than the startups they backed.\n\nThat assumption was dead wrong.\n\nBack then, I was at Tinder and a scout for Index Ventures. It was an awesome experience, but I definitely underestimated how turbulent things can be inside other venture firms I was co-investing with and getting to know more closely.\n\nThat turbulence has only accelerated in the last few years. Every week, I see partners leaving, firms reshaping their strategies, and LP relationships shifting. \n\nIt feels like watching ESPN at this point waiting for Shams to break some trade news. Luckily we have @jordihays & @johncoogan at @tbpn.\n\nFor founders, venture capital musical chairs feels like something happening on the other side of the table. You sense the industry shifting, but you’re busy building your company. Whatever chaos is unfolding inside venture firms isn’t exactly top of mind.\n\nBut you should be thinking about it a lot more. And here's why. \n\nWhen you raise from a venture firm, you don’t really raise from the firm. You raise from a specific partner. You take their calls, you trust their judgment, and you build your relationship around them. They’re the one who sits on your board, texts you late at night, and ideally, fights for you when things get tough. \n\nWhen they leave, you lose that advocate. Suddenly, the person who cared most about your survival inside the partnership is gone.\n\nIn today’s venture world, that partner may not even be around by the time your next fundraise rolls around. \n\nI was talking to a former partner at a multi-stage fund yesterday, and she told me that the average partner at a venture firm sticks around for 7 years. And when they leave, the implications for you are important to understand.\n\nWhat often happens next is that you become an “adopted company.” Other partners don’t rush to claim you, because supporting you doesn’t count toward their scoreboard. Venture is a business built on attribution, and if they didn’t source or lead your deal, the incentive to spend time helping you is low.\n\nBoard dynamics only make the problem worse. If your original partner leaves, their seat might be reassigned to someone who barely knows your business, or worse, someone who doesn’t care to. \n\nNow you’re wasting cycles re-educating a new person who has little emotional or financial attachment to your success. Instead of focusing on building, you’re back at square one, explaining the basics to someone who isn’t invested in your story.\n\nAnd then there’s the signaling risk. Other investors notice when your champion departs their firm. LPs notice too. Even if your company is performing well, your life will change.\n\n“Is the firm still supporting you?” You’ll get asked this question dozens of times by other investors, potential hires, and media. You can explain this pretty easily, but it’s just one of those annoying questions that you’ll have to talk about for many years to come.\n\nThis isn’t meant to be morbid. It’s a reminder to choose your partners carefully and understand their career trajectory and standing inside the firm.\n\nFundraising is chaotic right now. Bubble or not, founders and investors are speed-dating their way into big rounds, and everyone’s expected to build trust on a timeline that would be insane in any normal business relationship.\n\nMy best advice is don’t assume the partner you pick will be there forever. Get to know the rest of the partnership, understand how they think, and make sure you actually believe in the firm’s culture and ethos.\n\nA friend put it well yesterday: the only person who’s almost certainly sticking around is the founder of the firm. That’s the longest term partner you're getting into business with. You may not get much access to the founder(s) of a firm, but it’s still worth knowing their story, their reputation, and how they’ve shown up for founders over time.\n\nVenture Capital Musical Chairs isn’t stopping anytime soon. If anything, it will get much spicier as we understand which partners took massive AI swings that will generate many billions for their firms, or leave their firms holding the bag.\n\nIn either case, your partner still might leave. \n\nInvestors who crushed this AI wave might use that momentum to spin out and start their own firms. And the ones who didn’t get big wins in this cycle might be looking for new jobs soon for reasons we all understand.\n\nAs a founder, choose your partners carefully and make damn sure you’re not the last one left standing when the music stops. \n\nFin.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,75],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"35647451","name":"Turner Novak 🍌🧢","screen_name":"TurnerNovak","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"TurnerNovak","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988990321540399109","view_count":1308,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763047220000,"favorite_count":4,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"@TurnerNovak Very effective Sparknotes version - I need you to be my editor","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"35647451","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1988989896195756499","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-15","value":45268,"startTime":1763078400000,"endTime":1763164800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,87],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1989156238018683215","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/Ssm5bH6JtM","expanded":"https://twitter.com/rohanpaul_ai/status/1989156238018683215","display":"x.com/rohanpaul_ai/s…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989213951863955480","view_count":2628,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1763100538000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989213951863955480","full_text":"Solana FDV: $80B (feels cheap)\nA 1-year-old AI startup: $50B\n\nWelcome to pure-vibes VC.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,121],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rsKQuQih8o","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1989184813312680086/photo/1","id_str":"1989184305332174848","indices":[122,145],"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5sAligbQAAxQo3.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rsKQuQih8o","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":977,"y":403,"h":520,"w":520},{"x":1347,"y":59,"h":635,"w":635},{"x":507,"y":376,"h":589,"w":589}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":572,"y":236,"h":304,"w":304},{"x":789,"y":35,"h":372,"w":372},{"x":297,"y":220,"h":345,"w":345}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":324,"y":134,"h":172,"w":172},{"x":447,"y":19,"h":211,"w":211},{"x":168,"y":124,"h":195,"w":195}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":1833,"y":757,"h":975,"w":975},{"x":2527,"y":112,"h":1192,"w":1192},{"x":952,"y":705,"h":1106,"w":1106}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1152,"w":2048,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":675,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":2160,"width":3840,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":10,"w":3840,"h":2150},{"x":552,"y":0,"w":2160,"h":2160},{"x":685,"y":0,"w":1895,"h":2160},{"x":1092,"y":0,"w":1080,"h":2160},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":3840,"h":2160}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[{"display_url":"x.com/OpenAI/status/…","expanded_url":"https://x.com/OpenAI/status/1989138776585851038","url":"https://t.co/5gFtHQYNiu","indices":[98,121]}],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rsKQuQih8o","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1989184813312680086/photo/1","id_str":"1989184305332174848","indices":[122,145],"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5sAligbQAAxQo3.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rsKQuQih8o","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":977,"y":403,"h":520,"w":520},{"x":1347,"y":59,"h":635,"w":635},{"x":507,"y":376,"h":589,"w":589}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":572,"y":236,"h":304,"w":304},{"x":789,"y":35,"h":372,"w":372},{"x":297,"y":220,"h":345,"w":345}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":324,"y":134,"h":172,"w":172},{"x":447,"y":19,"h":211,"w":211},{"x":168,"y":124,"h":195,"w":195}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":1833,"y":757,"h":975,"w":975},{"x":2527,"y":112,"h":1192,"w":1192},{"x":952,"y":705,"h":1106,"w":1106}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1152,"w":2048,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":675,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":2160,"width":3840,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":10,"w":3840,"h":2150},{"x":552,"y":0,"w":2160,"h":2160},{"x":685,"y":0,"w":1895,"h":2160},{"x":1092,"y":0,"w":1080,"h":2160},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":3840,"h":2160}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"quoted_status_id_str":"1983834443648278593","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/t56Kl9NM7f","expanded":"https://twitter.com/jmj/status/1983834443648278593","display":"x.com/jmj/status/198…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989184813312680086","view_count":19239,"bookmark_count":23,"created_at":1763093591000,"favorite_count":52,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989184813312680086","full_text":"ChatGPT now has group chats.\n\nCongrats to the newest social network on the internet. Case closed.\nhttps://t.co/5gFtHQYNiu https://t.co/rsKQuQih8o","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,282],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989423657438121993","view_count":21867,"bookmark_count":60,"created_at":1763150536000,"favorite_count":102,"quote_count":5,"reply_count":24,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"Vibe Investing Is the New Vibe Coding\n\nThe institutional memory of what happened in 2020–2022 is basically gone. It’s wild how quickly we as an industry forgot.\n\nI have a theory that our brains now process trauma & even financial bubbles in smaller and smaller increments. We’re living through the compression of emotional memory. Our tech industry systems take in stimuli that are too frequent, too loud, and too fast, so nothing sticks. \n\nI dug into my theory more (which you’ve likely felt intuitively but maybe haven’t articulated) and it turns out there’s actually a concept called “emotional amnesia\" which is a feeling numb or disconnected about what is happening around you.\n\nI won’t bore you with the academic details, but my takeaway as applied to venture capital is that the half-life on lessons learned (and in most businesses) is collapsing at the same pace you scroll a TikTok feed. We breeze past a $3B seed round at a $30B valuation like it’s a TMZ clip. \n\nAs a first-time manager who launched a fund in 2019, the 2020–2022 bubble left a permanent imprint on me. I’ll never forget what that period felt like. \n\nThe velocity, FOMO & the total detachment from fundamentals was intoxicating for everyone. Your seed check jumps from a $10M post to a $150M post in 30 days. Congrats… I guess? Because now you have to decide whether to follow on. And it’s a tier-one lead. What do you do?\n\nThat environment pushed every firm, including the great ones, into some objectively terrible decisions.\n\nAnd when I look at venture today, the industry barely resembles what it was even six years ago. We used to joke about “vibe investing” as the exception. The charismatic founder with cult-leader energy, the weird but magnetic pitch, the occasional “let’s take a flyer and see what happens.” Now it’s the norm. \n\nAura and an AI narrative = 10 term sheets.\n\nThere are insanely talented, credible operators building world-changing companies. But a $50B valuation for a pre-product seed round? Is that even venture capital? Call it whatever you want (and honestly we probably need a new category name) because it’s a completely different industry at this point.\n\nThe biggest takeaway is that at almost every stage from seed, growth, crossover, even public markets, we’re operating on vibes. Maybe I’m slowly becoming a boomer for even saying this.\n\nBut it's narrative over numbers, momentum over diligence, social proof over actual proof.\n\nCritics dunk on “vibe coding” as a Gen Z builder phenomenon that creates technical slop, but venture capital has built its own version: vibe investing.\n\nDrop a pitch deck into ChatGPT, run a Deep Research query, and boom “I don’t even need analysts anymore!” You skim the output in five minutes between pitch calls and try to stitch together a market thesis. Meanwhile the founder is a fundraising machine and every other firm is running the exact same Deep Research report you are.\n\nYou better move fast.\n\nSo you hop into Granola, grab one smart-sounding insight from your call, and paste it into Slack like you discovered fire. Your partners light up. Then you mention the founder already has multiple term sheets and suddenly everyone’s ready to clear their calendars.\n\nWe won’t know what turns into investment slop for a few years, but vibe-driven deals are definitely going to push that percentage way up. \n\nMaybe that’s fine & maybe this time really is different, and the outliers will paper over all the vibe-investing slop. But if you’re an emerging manager or running a concentrated portfolio, that’s a dangerous way to live. You don’t get to spray-and-pray your way out of vibes.\n\nRight now the vibes are insanely strong. It’s exciting. I feel just as fired up as everyone else and that energy is exactly why venture and technology keep marching forward.\n\nBut if I had one message today it would be this. \n\nGOOD LUCK AVOIDING THE SLOP.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,14],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"25232333","name":"Pat McGovern","screen_name":"pw_mcgovern","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"pw_mcgovern","lang":"qme","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989437186396332277","view_count":90,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763153761000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@pw_mcgovern 🔥","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"25232333","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989435465892606039","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,47],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"180030016","name":"davidfeiock","screen_name":"davidfeiock","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"davidfeiock","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989439081856864670","view_count":95,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763154213000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@davidfeiock Doing my best to please the people","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"180030016","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989438684970840404","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[16,33],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"90144647","name":"Viraj Acharya","screen_name":"Viraj__Acharya","indices":[0,15]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Viraj__Acharya","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989474730047672821","view_count":55,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763162712000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@Viraj__Acharya Haha yes happy to","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"90144647","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989469687676350678","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,283],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"729253848787738624","name":"george beall","screen_name":"GeorgePBeall","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"GeorgePBeall","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989425758935363750","view_count":254,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763151037000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@GeorgePBeall There will be a mean reversion as DPI gets realized. There is a category land grab right now, and the opportunity is massive, so capital is piling in. Long-term bullish on AI, but at some point, early stage investors will need to get back to some version of discipline.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"729253848787738624","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989425239139520664","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,292],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"13955342","name":"Trace Vertical Ai Cohen","screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989438237971300635","view_count":292,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1763154012000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"Agreed. I think the biggest mistake people will make is not knowing what game they're playing. An emerging manager with a smaller fund trying to execute on the multi-stage strategy is problematic. You have windows of opportunity where you can do things that are outside your core strategy, and putting guard rails on that bucket is hugely important. It's also really easy to let the guard rails down.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"13955342","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989437434082595107","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[11,103],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"192784466","name":"Jeff Richards","screen_name":"jrichlive","indices":[0,10]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"jrichlive","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989351865327472987","view_count":302,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763133419000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"@jrichlive Wild - will check back on this tweet in a few years so you can tell me about the 4th and 5th","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"192784466","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989350740587077902","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,37],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1449604717038825477","name":"Lucas Dickey","screen_name":"LucasDickey4","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"LucasDickey4","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989169728783524119","view_count":446,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763089994000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"@LucasDickey4 This is a great summary","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1449604717038825477","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989167000841777461","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-16","value":91,"startTime":1763164800000,"endTime":1763251200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[16,77],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1950463458648150016","name":"Stanley Wei","screen_name":"StanleyWei4748","indices":[0,15]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"StanleyWei4748","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989713118495490161","view_count":27,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763219549000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@StanleyWei4748 They were supposed to be the roaring 20s and we got this haha","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1950463458648150016","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989711120332910993","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[7,282],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"6874252","name":"Indus Khaitan","screen_name":"1ndus","indices":[0,6]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"1ndus","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989565798088937553","view_count":64,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763184425000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"There are great firms with more than four to five partners. I would just figure out who you're getting into business with and what that partners is standing at the firm. How long have they been there? Have they made any great investments yet? What's their career history look like? Are they someone who will bounce around a lot? Etc.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"6874252","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989558109883519352","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-17","value":0,"startTime":1763251200000,"endTime":1763337600000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-18","value":18553,"startTime":1763337600000,"endTime":1763424000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,279],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990480739989868627","view_count":1894,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1763402564000,"favorite_count":16,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990480739989868627","full_text":"When vibe coding started getting popular, some people said, “we won’t need designers anymore, you can just design things yourself.” \n\nThe opposite happened.\n\nI talked to a well respected designer friend today who said freelance rates are climbing, and hiring a full-time designer in the U.S. now starts at $150K.\n\nHe shared a framing I liked:\n\n\"Teams understand the models are going to make everyone 7/10 designers. Which does eliminate the need for low end of the market. But if you can help someone ship 9 or 10/10 design you’ve never been more valuable because it’s now one of the core means of differentiation.\"\n\nAI made bad design easier. It made great design harder & more expensive.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,279],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990491897375436825","view_count":16659,"bookmark_count":48,"created_at":1763405224000,"favorite_count":101,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":16,"retweet_count":9,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990491897375436825","full_text":"When vibe coding started getting popular, some people said, “we won’t need designers anymore, you can just design things yourself.” \n\nThe opposite happened.\n\nI talked to a well respected designer friend today who said freelance design rates are getting more expensive, and hiring a full-time designer in the U.S. now starts at $150K.\n\nHe shared a framing I liked:\n\n\"Teams understand the models are going to make everyone 7/10 designers. Which does eliminate the need for low end of the market. But if you can help someone ship 9 or 10/10 design you’ve never been more valuable because it’s now one of the core means of differentiation.\"\n\nAI made bad design easier. It also made great design harder & more expensive.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-19","value":46640,"startTime":1763424000000,"endTime":1763510400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,146],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/CzdN0xANyq","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1990572770015809922/photo/1","id_str":"1990571616619933696","indices":[147,170],"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5_uVrybMAAQ8U6.png","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/CzdN0xANyq","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":609,"width":568,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":318},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":568},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":534,"h":609},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":305,"h":609},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":609}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/CzdN0xANyq","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1990572770015809922/photo/1","id_str":"1990571616619933696","indices":[147,170],"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5_uVrybMAAQ8U6.png","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/CzdN0xANyq","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":609,"width":568,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":318},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":568},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":534,"h":609},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":305,"h":609},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":609}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990572770015809922","view_count":5620,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1763424506000,"favorite_count":27,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990572770015809922","full_text":"LP inbox right now: a flood of GPs explaining why they didn’t see the Bezos AI deal.\n\n\"Our sourcing engine is being rebuilt from first principles\" https://t.co/CzdN0xANyq","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1990841773799682300","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/ivg0YeXKEN","expanded":"https://twitter.com/yrechtman/status/1990841773799682300","display":"x.com/yrechtman/stat…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990855280654233609","view_count":23462,"bookmark_count":70,"created_at":1763491861000,"favorite_count":79,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":7,"retweet_count":4,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990855280654233609","full_text":"One question that every seed investor should be asking themselves right now is whether they should be focusing more on early traction rounds, as opposed to pre-product investing. \n\nIn the past couple months, we've met a few teams raising rounds at $30M-$40M post-valuation who have real traction ($1-$4m ARR). \n\nAs a seed investor, would you rather invest in one of these rounds at $40m post or a pre-product seed round that calls itself an AI company at a $20M-$30M post? They're basically priced the same. \n\nSome of the early tractions teams call these rounds \"seed extensions,\" and others stretch it to a Series A label. \n\nFor whatever reason, they haven't been treated as \"hot companies\" by the Series A market, but they're building very solid businesses that are growing well. \n\nI haven't come up with an exact terminology for these companies. They're generally not pure-play AI deals, but are often utilizing AI in interesting ways. The headline on the deck doesn't read AI deal, but they're real businesses. \n\nFor the sake of this essay, let's just call them \"AI tweeners\". \n\nThere is a temptation to invest in what is new (ie the brand new AI company raising at $20-$30m post) because you're investing in a cool story & get to help bring a new company to market & call yourself the lead. \n\nBut maybe the $40m \"AI tweener\" is a better bet. By paying a slight premium, you invest in a company that's figured a lot out, has revenue, and is building in a category that likely has less competition. \n\nThe challenge with investing in the $40M post is that you likely called yourself a seed firm to all of your limited partners, so your entry price is going to look like what has historically been called a Series A. Is this strategy drift, or is it being a good investor? \n\nIf your goal is to build the highest performing portfolio, investing in \"AI tweeners\" is the part of market that is likely most undervalued right now. \n\nSo maybe you should stop calling yourself a seed fund & invest in early traction companies while the rest of the market is obsessed with finding the next hot pre-product seed deal. \n\nJust some thoughts.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"3393185261","name":"yoni rechtman","screen_name":"yrechtman","indices":[2202,2212]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990857909635518465","view_count":9799,"bookmark_count":47,"created_at":1763492488000,"favorite_count":73,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":8,"retweet_count":5,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990857909635518465","full_text":"One question that every seed investor should be asking themselves right now is whether they should be focusing more on early traction rounds, as opposed to pre-product investing. \n\nIn the past couple months, we've met a few teams raising rounds at $30M-$40M post-valuation who have real traction ($1-$4m ARR). \n\nAs a seed investor, would you rather invest in one of these rounds at $40m post or a pre-product seed round that calls itself an AI company at a $20M-$30M post? They're basically priced the same. \n\nSome of the early tractions teams call these rounds \"seed extensions,\" and others stretch it to a Series A label. \n\nFor whatever reason, they haven't been treated as \"hot companies\" by the Series A market, but they're building very solid businesses that are growing well. \n\nI haven't come up with an exact terminology for these companies. They're generally not pure-play AI deals, but are often utilizing AI in interesting ways. The headline on the deck doesn't read AI deal, but they're real businesses. \n\nFor the sake of this essay, let's just call them \"AI tweeners\". \n\nThere is a temptation to invest in what is new (ie the brand new AI company raising at $20-$30m post) because you're investing in a cool story & get to help bring a new company to market & call yourself the lead. \n\nBut maybe the $40m \"AI tweener\" is a better bet. By paying a slight premium, you invest in a company that's figured a lot out, has revenue, and is building in a category that likely has less competition. \n\nThe challenge with investing in the $40M post is that you likely called yourself a seed firm to all of your limited partners, so your entry price is going to look like what has historically been called a Series A. Is this strategy drift, or is it being a good investor? \n\nIf your goal is to build the highest performing portfolio, investing in \"AI tweeners\" is the part of market that is likely most undervalued right now. \n\nSo maybe you should stop calling yourself a seed fund & invest in early traction companies while the rest of the market is obsessed with finding the next hot pre-product seed deal. \n\nJust some thoughts.\n\nOriginally written as a response to a tweet by @yrechtman, but creating a separate essay so more people can hopefully read it.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990865081354334636","view_count":7759,"bookmark_count":10,"created_at":1763494198000,"favorite_count":68,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":17,"retweet_count":4,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990865081354334636","full_text":"I am noticing a lot of apathy and despair in the crypto community right now. This is funny to me because we should all be basking in the opportunity to actually build valuable applications and companies right now.\n\nOne of the most common complaints in prior cycles was that crypto founders didn't have a fighting chance to run the experiments that they wanted to test due to regulatory battles. \n\nIn the United States, we have a very supportive regulatory environment right now, and it is possible to be a U.S. crypto founder in categories like Defi which were previously very dicey. \n\nBut for some reason, the mood amongst founders and investors is especially solemn right now.\n\nMy take is that building products and companies that people care about is incredibly hard, especially with AI dominating the headlines. \n\nIt was easy to use regulatory constraints as an excuse in prior cycles, and now that we no longer have that issue, we have to actually go build products that people use every day & care about. \n\nAnd these products can't be another L1/L2 or some abstract technical infrastructure that increases TPS or makes blockchains cheaper. 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They embrace transparency, technical rigor, and decentralization as core principles for a thriving ecosystem.","facts":"Fun fact: KhaoGold often uses coffee metaphors like 'Espresso' and 'brewing' to explain complex blockchain concepts, making tech talk both accessible and engaging for their followers.","strength":"KhaoGold excels at breaking down highly technical and complex blockchain topics into clear, insightful commentary that encourages thoughtful engagement. Their ability to spot underlying trends and emphasize quality over quantity drives meaningful conversations and attracts a dedicated audience.","weakness":"Their intense focus on detail and technical depth might intimidate or alienate newcomers who prefer more simplified or entertaining content. This narrow niche could limit audience growth if not balanced with approachable communication.","recommendation":"To grow their audience on X, KhaoGold should blend their technical expertise with more story-driven and relatable content, such as personal takes on industry shifts or simplified explainers for beginners. Engaging directly with questions and collaborating with influencers in broader crypto circles can also help bridge the gap between deep analysis and wider appeal.","roast":"KhaoGold probably spends so much time brewing blockchain insights, their followers need a double espresso just to keep up — maybe try decaf for the beginners next time!","win":"Successfully establishing themselves as a trusted voice advocating for projects like Espresso and Quranium, KhaoGold has influenced key conversations on the evolution of modular consensus and permissionless staking, helping shape the future of Ethereum-compatible decentralized infrastructure."},"created":1763386900900,"type":"the analyst","id":"0xkhaogold"},{"user":{"id":"757326186779406336","name":"ashley","description":"sheep obstetrician","followers_count":1458,"friends_count":384,"statuses_count":125169,"profile_image_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1692776966540148737/VcTp3B0P_normal.jpg","screen_name":"rabcyr_alt","location":"new mexico","entities":{"description":{"urls":[]}}},"details":{"type":"The Analyst","description":"Ashley is a deep-dive thinker who combines technical expertise with a curious outlook on life. 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Honesty and curiosity are at the core of Ashley’s worldview, driving a passion for continuous learning and detailed explanations.","facts":"Fun fact: Ashley once analyzed why binary files seem bigger than they actually are when sent via email, turning a nerdy tech tidbit into a viral tweet with over 9000 likes!","strength":"Ashley’s strengths lie in their analytical mindset, ability to communicate complex ideas simply, and consistent content output with an impressive 125,169 tweets. Their technical credibility mixed with a relatable tone keeps followers both informed and entertained.","weakness":"With such a massive volume of tweets, there’s a risk of follower fatigue or key insights getting lost in the noise. 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Maybe next time, fewer pixels and more people?","win":"Ashley scored a viral moment by educating thousands on the quirky technical limits of email file sizes, showcasing their knack for turning nerdy truths into share-worthy content."},"created":1763385959030,"type":"the analyst","id":"rabcyr_alt"},{"user":{"id":"1584833889952043009","name":"The Millennial Guy","description":"Every Sunday, I break down one topic in 5 practical tweets.","followers_count":255,"friends_count":342,"statuses_count":1992,"profile_image_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1863158044516827136/giFk4hbZ_normal.jpg","screen_name":"MillennialGuy","location":"Global Citizen","entities":{"description":{"urls":[]}}},"details":{"type":"The Analyst","description":"The Millennial Guy dissects complex topics every Sunday into practical, easy-to-digest tweet threads, blending insightful data with real-world applications. 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Collaborations with influencers in health and finance could also amplify reach while preserving his analytical edge."},"created":1763385770972,"type":"the analyst","id":"millennialguy"},{"user":{"id":"1570181772796739584","name":"Màxkw’tët (Bear) 🐻 🪶","description":"MIT Solve Challenge Semifinalist 2025","followers_count":2272,"friends_count":5161,"statuses_count":84240,"profile_image_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1956204689764003843/moeNBDqT_normal.jpg","screen_name":"MaxkwTet","location":"","entities":{"description":{"urls":[]},"url":{"urls":[{"display_url":"substack.com/@beartompkins","expanded_url":"https://substack.com/@beartompkins","url":"https://t.co/xRaMc4Pv1v","indices":[0,23]}]}}},"details":{"type":"The Analyst","description":"Màxkw’tët (Bear) 🐻 🪶 is a rigorous thinker diving deep into complex scientific theories and spiritual musings with equal intensity. 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They believe in legally grounded change over populist unrest, emphasizing education and economic development as tools to combat societal issues like corruption and extremist ideologies.","strength":"Their strength lies in comprehensive knowledge, clarity in complex explanations, and the ability to provoke thoughtful dialogue while maintaining a respectful yet critical tone.","weakness":"A potential weakness is that their dense and fact-rich content might overwhelm casual readers or those unfamiliar with intricate political topics, limiting broader appeal.","recommendation":"To grow their audience on X, yuwenlong could experiment with more accessible threads or visual aides summarizing complex points, and actively engage in conversations with influencers focused on Chinese politics to amplify reach.","roast":"Yuwenlong could probably write a 10-tweet essay on why someone’s coffee order is a metaphor for socio-economic reform — and actually convince you it makes sense, even at 2 a.m. when clarity is in short supply.","win":"Yuwenlong’s biggest win is their ability to maintain a highly active profile with over 38,000 tweets dissecting China’s socio-political landscape, cultivating a reputation as a thoughtful analyst with a loyal community despite not chasing follower fame."},"created":1763380714564,"type":"the analyst","id":"yyffnn1963"},{"user":{"id":"1454360653","name":"一只绿喵","description":"不是所有的平板都是韩小寒","followers_count":7570,"friends_count":476,"statuses_count":19732,"profile_image_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1080051674855571456/AJ0OUWtp_normal.jpg","screen_name":"1greencat","location":"","entities":{"description":{"urls":[]}}},"details":{"type":"The Analyst","description":"一只绿喵 is a sharp and detail-oriented thinker who thrives on dissecting technical nuances and real-world issues with a critical eye. 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They also value community learning and fostering practical skills for troubleshooting and innovation.","facts":"Fun fact: Despite their serious and technical tone, 一只绿喵 infuses their posts with a playful spirit — like cheekily calling out job applicants for outrageous resume claims or getting excited over big-screen OLED displays that double as monitors.","strength":"Exceptional analytical skills paired with a sharp wit; they excel at breaking down complex tech topics and real-life scenarios into clear, actionable insights. Their high tweet volume reflects dedication and an active engagement in their niche.","weakness":"Their very direct and sometimes blunt style can alienate more sensitive followers or those less technically inclined. The intense focus on criticism might come off as negativity or cynicism.","recommendation":"To grow their audience on X, 一只绿喵 could balance their critical insights with a few more solution-focused tweets or community engagement posts, inviting dialogue rather than just critique. Leveraging popular tech hashtags and collaborating with influencers in complementary niches like developers and product managers will boost reach.","roast":"For someone who tweets more than a blinking cursor on a busy coder’s IDE, you'd think 一只绿喵 could invent a time machine by now — or at least a spell checker that doesn’t miss the glaring irony in a resume not written by its owner!","win":"Successfully built a large, engaged niche audience by consistently providing deeply reasoned, technically precise commentary, making them a trusted voice in tech and professional circles online."},"created":1763380705776,"type":"the analyst","id":"1greencat"},{"user":{"id":"967434592620826624","name":"Daan.618 🇳🇱🇧🇪","description":"TA/PA trader & investor in Web3 📈Crypto since 2017, stocks since 2014 ✍️ Trackrecord : https://t.co/md7d3dlB0e 👀Nothing I post is financial advice.","followers_count":23586,"friends_count":668,"statuses_count":22015,"profile_image_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1962428853743210496/bFY2K6VX_normal.jpg","screen_name":"Daan618crypto","location":"Arnhem, Netherlands.","entities":{"description":{"urls":[{"display_url":"tinyurl.com/daan618results","expanded_url":"http://tinyurl.com/daan618results","url":"https://t.co/md7d3dlB0e","indices":[87,110]}]},"url":{"urls":[{"display_url":"coinmarketcap.com/community/prof…","expanded_url":"https://coinmarketcap.com/community/profile/Daan618crypto/","url":"https://t.co/KvynMM597A","indices":[0,23]}]}}},"details":{"type":"The Analyst","description":"Daan.618 is a seasoned Web3 trader and investor who combines a deep understanding of technical analysis with fundamental insights, sharing detailed and data-driven updates on crypto and stocks. Since 2014, they have tracked market movements with precision and a cautious optimism, always reminding followers that their posts are not financial advice. Their analytical approach is both thorough and accessible, helping their audience navigate the complex world of blockchain investing.","purpose":"Daan’s life purpose is to empower others by demystifying blockchain and cryptocurrency markets through clear, insightful analysis, aiming to foster informed investment decisions and contribute to the adoption of trustworthy decentralized finance. They seek to build a community grounded in knowledge and transparency, bridging gaps between complex tech and real-world application.","beliefs":"Daan believes in the power of informed decision-making, empirical evidence, and the transformative potential of blockchain technology, particularly in creating trustworthy AI and scalable decentralized systems. They value transparency, diligence, and the importance of continuous learning, while maintaining a healthy skepticism toward hype and misinformation.","facts":"Fun fact: Daan has tweeted over 22,000 times, proving that analyzing and sharing market insights is more than just a hobby — it's a lifestyle. Also, they have been active in crypto since 2017 and stock trading since 2014, displaying almost a decade of experience in financial markets.","strength":"Daan’s greatest strength lies in their disciplined and data-driven approach to trading, blending technical chart analysis with solid fundamental insights. Their ability to clearly explain complex trading setups in an engaging and community-friendly tone makes them a trusted voice among followers. Frequent updates and a transparent stance about not giving financial advice add credibility and relatability.","weakness":"Daan’s deep focus on technical details and constant updates can sometimes overwhelm followers who are new or less experienced, potentially narrowing their audience reach. Their cautious disclaimer on financial advice might limit more casual or emotionally driven engagement from followers seeking direct tips or bullish hype.","recommendation":"To grow their audience on X, Daan should consider incorporating more educational threads or simplified explainers to attract beginner traders while maintaining their expert credibility. Engaging more with followers through Q&A sessions or live Twitter Spaces could build stronger community bonds. Using targeted hashtags related to crypto and blockchain governance can also increase visibility among niche but engaged audiences.","roast":"For someone who's clocked over 22,000 tweets, Daan must have nearly tweeted their whole portfolio by now — which is impressive, but we’re still waiting for the tweet that predicts Bitcoin’s price more accurately than a Magic 8-Ball. Maybe try less tweeting and more winning, huh?","win":"Daan’s biggest achievement is building a consistent track record since 2017 in crypto and since 2014 in stocks, reinforced by a solid reputation for blending technical analysis with fundamental insights — all while maintaining a no-financial-advice integrity that keeps their community both informed and grounded."},"created":1763379990436,"type":"the analyst","id":"daan618crypto"}],"activities":{"nreplies":[{"label":"2025-10-22","value":690,"startTime":1761004800000,"endTime":1761091200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":true,"display_text_range":[0,270],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rPx7ztdMGQ","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1980504752829132945/photo/1","id_str":"1980501236362153984","indices":[271,294],"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G3wnYZ6WkAAmnCh.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rPx7ztdMGQ","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":12,"y":110,"h":30,"w":30}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":422,"width":750,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":420},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":422,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":370,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":211,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":422}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rPx7ztdMGQ","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1980504752829132945/photo/1","id_str":"1980501236362153984","indices":[271,294],"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G3wnYZ6WkAAmnCh.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rPx7ztdMGQ","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":12,"y":110,"h":30,"w":30}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":422,"width":750,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":420},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":422,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":370,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":211,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":422}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980504752829132945","view_count":1096466,"bookmark_count":2205,"created_at":1761024103000,"favorite_count":28909,"quote_count":298,"reply_count":660,"retweet_count":3461,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"Everyone talks about AI slop. \nNo one talks about PE (private equity) slop.\n\n- restaurants that lost their soul\n- medical practices that feel like assembly lines\n- apartment buildings designed by an Excel formula\n\nThe algorithm didn’t kill culture. The margin model did. https://t.co/rPx7ztdMGQ","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,60],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"932630991298007041","name":"litquidity","screen_name":"litcapital","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"litcapital","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980648813561008268","view_count":24455,"bookmark_count":5,"created_at":1761058450000,"favorite_count":227,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@litcapital haha that’s what I’m saying, impossible to unsee","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"932630991298007041","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980647342371213594","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,51],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1301314271989518336","name":"illiquid","screen_name":"lefttailguy","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"lefttailguy","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980629841155330197","view_count":19708,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761053927000,"favorite_count":277,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@lefttailguy artisanal content, thank you very much","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1301314271989518336","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980628461417804114","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,161],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"156765498","name":"Michael Williams","screen_name":"mxwilliams","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"mxwilliams","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980633611884970415","view_count":14727,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761054826000,"favorite_count":149,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":16,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@mxwilliams maybe they would, most ppl hate going to the dentist for a variety of reasons.\n\n5% feels for a better experience is something ppl would prob pay for.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"156765498","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980632925075894309","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,134],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"14117767","name":"Jonas 🦩","screen_name":"jonaslamis","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"jonaslamis","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980506004510085379","view_count":17431,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761024402000,"favorite_count":126,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@jonaslamis You might be right. Maybe AI slop is just the tipping point that’s making us realize how sloppy the world has always been.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"14117767","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980505576590447033","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[17,63],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1081596786073128960","name":"Old white guy","screen_name":"obrecht_michael","indices":[0,16]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"obrecht_michael","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980676318359666791","view_count":11003,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1761065008000,"favorite_count":129,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@obrecht_michael thanks for sharing, not an easy thing to solve","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1081596786073128960","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980674670094373173","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-23","value":26,"startTime":1761091200000,"endTime":1761177600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,281],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981026514079805470","view_count":25016,"bookmark_count":69,"created_at":1761148501000,"favorite_count":210,"quote_count":3,"reply_count":26,"retweet_count":24,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981026514079805470","full_text":"There is a very big difference between running a venture fund and building a venture firm. \n\nI get a lot of aspiring venture capitalists who ask me about starting their own firm, and the quick thing I tell them is that they have to love company building & operations as much as they love investing. \n\nAt the end of the day, so much of your time is spent on fundraising, recruiting, and back office. You have to really love that stuff early on (or it least be good at it) when nobody is there to help you out.\n\nIf you don’t love the non-investing stuff or have enough self-awareness to know you're not good at it, you should definitely consider joining a platform. I have friends who are amazingly talented who have decided they only want to focus on investing, and they are very happy & many make a ton of money too. \n\nEasy to run a fund. Much harder to build a firm.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,237],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"935658795098832896","name":"Ibrahim S.","screen_name":"IbrahimS15","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"IbrahimS15","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980849065622683933","view_count":122,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761106194000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980666971650945285","full_text":"@IbrahimS15 This is the single best feedback from an interviewer that I've ever seen. I know it's hard to get past the rejection and the what-ifs of the opportunity, but use this as motivation, and you will do great things. Best of luck.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"935658795098832896","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980666971650945285","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-24","value":21,"startTime":1761177600000,"endTime":1761264000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981361260852892174","view_count":56764,"bookmark_count":42,"created_at":1761228311000,"favorite_count":96,"quote_count":5,"reply_count":20,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981361260852892174","full_text":"The death of SaaS has been overstated. \n\nWhen VCs or industry analysts say that SaaS is dead, they replace the word SaaS with AI agents or some other descriptor for B2B software.\n\nHuman addiction to technology is well known in the consumer space, and the same applies for anything in the enterprise. \n\nEnterprises are addicted to software, and whether the user is human or an agent doesn't matter. At the end of the day, there will always be a top 1% of founders and companies who design their software in a superior way to their competitors, and those will be massive companies where the TAM is even bigger than what was formerly called SaaS.\n\nSoftware is here to stay (with much more powerful capabilities!), which is such an obvious thing to state yet I'm hearing otherwise from my peers.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[9,288],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"6228302","name":"Sheel Mohnot","screen_name":"pitdesi","indices":[0,8]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"pitdesi","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981402156306760016","view_count":414,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761238061000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981381724702724256","full_text":"This is very true. \n\nI think from the outside, folks who hear this mistake the evolving business model with the death of an entire category of software.\n\nOrganizations are becoming even more software-obsessed, and there is a new generation of products that are quickly displacing incumbents. \n\nSoftware is obviously becoming easier to build, but the opportunity for venture capitalists is still massive. \n\nThese things feel so obvious to type, but you'd be surprised at how many conversations I have that revolve around this very topic.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"6228302","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981381724702724256","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[23,113],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"829946137","name":"Itai | dynamic.xyz","screen_name":"turbahn","indices":[0,8]},{"id_str":"1135606000868872192","name":"Fireblocks","screen_name":"FireblocksHQ","indices":[9,22]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"turbahn","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981417837395923151","view_count":264,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761241800000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981393151530254774","full_text":"@turbahn @FireblocksHQ Congrats, have loved working with you and the team the last few years. First class always.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"829946137","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981393151530254774","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-25","value":28,"startTime":1761264000000,"endTime":1761350400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981703025946501274","view_count":70,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761309794000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981703025946501274","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else you'll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should!), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. These are some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy and pursue the deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981703548401520684","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761309918000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981703548401520684","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else you'll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should!), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. These investments will stand out in your data room so you might as well get ahead of those conversations and explain your underwriting logic. \n\nThese are also some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy & pursue the really special deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981704081166016556","view_count":57,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761310045000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981704081166016556","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else you'll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. Those investments will stand out in your data room so you might as well get ahead of those conversations and explain your underwriting logic. \n\nThese are also some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy & pursue the really special deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981709123755610507","view_count":199549,"bookmark_count":256,"created_at":1761311248000,"favorite_count":346,"quote_count":18,"reply_count":23,"retweet_count":25,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else it’ll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. Those investments will stand out in your data room so you might as well get ahead of those conversations and explain your underwriting logic. \n\nThese are also some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy & pursue the really special deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,277],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"811350","name":"Alexis Ohanian 🗽","screen_name":"alexisohanian","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"alexisohanian","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981768701885264380","view_count":4259,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761325452000,"favorite_count":24,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@alexisohanian 100% true. I find that newer managers are more risk-averse to exceptions because they don't want to get fired by their LPs. If you study the history of venture capital, many of the best firms today became franchises in critical moments when they made exceptions.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"811350","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981767253252358505","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,286],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"69619073","name":"Andrew D'Souza","screen_name":"andrewdsouza","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"andrewdsouza","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981777971267743913","view_count":1943,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761327662000,"favorite_count":15,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@andrewdsouza Most LPAs don’t have strict parameters around valuations.\n\nThey more often have definitions around:\n\n- what % of fund can go to a single investment \n\n- recycling % \n\n- deployment period \n\nMost of the time these exceptions aren’t made because GPs are scared of being wrong.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"69619073","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981777001078788107","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,220],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1945812818932170753","name":"Neo","screen_name":"neo3141111","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"neo3141111","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981736892283469930","view_count":1741,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761317868000,"favorite_count":15,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@neo3141111 You could look at a long list of hundreds of GPs who have world class track records that have invested after the pre-seed. A very easy list of people to study would be folks like Peter Thiel, Fred Wilson, etc","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1945812818932170753","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981734983279562826","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,23],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"20397708","name":"Niki Scevak","screen_name":"nikiscevak","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"nikiscevak","lang":"fr","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981860895103025450","view_count":1021,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761347433000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@nikiscevak Raise in SF","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"20397708","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981860111879672307","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,45],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"75409972","name":"Josh Porter","screen_name":"joshdotporter","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"joshdotporter","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981818015080673366","view_count":950,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761337209000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@joshdotporter ty great seeing you this week!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"75409972","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981812251968545118","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,25],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1764321378507931648","name":"Rohan","screen_name":"proxy_vector","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"proxy_vector","lang":"ca","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981757033461481979","view_count":933,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761322670000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@proxy_vector 100 percent","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1764321378507931648","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981748076227301597","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,294],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"175934436","name":"Paul Yacoubian","screen_name":"PaulYacoubian","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"PaulYacoubian","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981706003306746307","view_count":1639,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761310504000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981704081166016556","full_text":"Ha, this is a dangerous game to play because exit value is the model input that tends to be the most hand-wavy. It's really easy to change the exit value from $10B to $20B and have your entire model look like a work of art.\n\nI find that newer investors overestimate exit value on their investment proposals, and that the model assumption is normally tied to a 1x RTF (return the fund) outcome when your winners should math out to outcomes that are far greater like 3x-5x net or above. \n\nGetting the RTF model to make sense is becoming harder to build as entry prices become higher. The math just doesn't math out most of the time. So some just change that exit value to $1T and do the deal :)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"175934436","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981704634734711025","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-26","value":0,"startTime":1761350400000,"endTime":1761436800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,132],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"6781512","name":"Martin Tobias (Pre-Seed VC)","screen_name":"MartinGTobias","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"MartinGTobias","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982144968669135150","view_count":658,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761415161000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@MartinGTobias 100%. Fully believe that an 80/20 core vs. \"breaking the rules\" barbell strategy is the best for an early-stage firm.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"6781512","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1982141432950391154","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-27","value":8,"startTime":1761436800000,"endTime":1761523200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982472740914540939","view_count":880,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1761493308000,"favorite_count":7,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982472740914540939","full_text":"One of the most common questions you’ll get when fundraising for a venture fund is about sourcing. \n\nLPs are ultimately buying into your thesis and your access, so it makes sense that sourcing is one of the first questions.\n\nThe question is hard to answer because sourcing usually comes from many different channels & almost every VC believes their approach is better than their peers’.\n\nI can’t even imagine how confusing it must be for an LP who covers venture as part of a broader portfolio to figure out what’s real and what’s not. They get pitched by hundreds of managers a year, all claiming the same “proprietary deal flow” story.\n\nSo I figured I’d write a quick note on how I think about sourcing.\n\nI like to compare sourcing to multi-channel marketing. You have multiple inputs driving top of funnel, and ideally three or four strategies that create a sourcing flywheel.\n\nIt sometimes feels like LPs are searching for a single channel they can bring to their IC and say, “Look, they have a better sourcing engine.” But relying on one channel is risky. The game changes & so do relationships and competition.\n\nSourcing is never a magic bullet. Despite the debates, I don’t believe anyone has a true proprietary sourcing advantage beyond their reputation.\n\nSpeaking of proprietary networks... \n\nI met with a well-known GP recently who is now investing in a small number of funds & he asked which proprietary networks we have access to. It was a fair question, but I pushed back bc there are no truly proprietary networks in venture anymore.\n\nTake YC, for example. Founders could easily join other accelerators or raise the traditional way, but they choose YC because they trust it will get them further, faster. That trust is the differentiator.\n\nOr look at the handful of firms that have built entire franchises by backing Elon again and again - SpaceX, Tesla, The Boring Company, etc. The sourcing channel is no secret; the access is. And that access comes from relationships earned over decades.\n\nEveryone’s searching for a sourcing “hack.” The truth is, there isn’t one. The only real proprietary network in venture is your reputation. \n\nSo when LPs ask about sourcing, I try to reframe the question. It’s not where we find companies but it’s why the best founders choose to work with us once they’re found. \n\nThat’s the real edge, and it’s built over years, not through a single channel or campaign.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982476724895113555","view_count":17942,"bookmark_count":127,"created_at":1761494258000,"favorite_count":147,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":8,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982476724895113555","full_text":"One of the most common questions you’ll get when fundraising for a venture fund is about sourcing. \n\nLPs are ultimately buying into your thesis and your access, so it makes sense that sourcing is one of the first questions.\n\nThe question is hard to answer because sourcing usually comes from many different channels & almost every VC believes their approach is better than their peers’.\n\nI can’t even imagine how confusing it must be for an LP who covers venture as part of a broader portfolio to figure out what’s real and what’s not. They get pitched by hundreds of managers a year, all claiming the same “proprietary deal flow” story.\n\nSo I figured I’d write a quick note on how I think about sourcing.\n\nI like to compare sourcing to multi-channel marketing. You have multiple inputs driving top of funnel, and ideally three or four strategies that create a sourcing flywheel.\n\nIt sometimes feels like LPs are searching for a single channel they can bring to their IC and say, “Look, they have a better sourcing engine.” But relying on one channel is risky. The game changes & so do relationships and competition.\n\nSourcing is never a magic bullet. Despite the debates, I don’t believe anyone has a true proprietary sourcing advantage beyond their reputation.\n\nSpeaking of proprietary networks... \n\nI met with a well-known GP recently who is now investing in a small number of funds & he asked which proprietary networks we have access to. It was a fair question, but I pushed back bc there are no truly proprietary networks in venture anymore.\n\nTake YC. Founders could easily join other accelerators or raise the traditional way, but they choose YC because they trust it will get them further, faster. YC doesn’t have a proprietary network - it has a brand that founders want to be associated with. They trust YC to be the best Day 1 partner to help them build something valuable.\n\nWhat’s even more interesting is what happens after YC. Because it’s such an efficient marketplace, every venture firm has access to the same company list - it’s one of the most transparent markets in venture. We all know each batch will include a handful of outliers. None of that is proprietary sourcing. The real differentiation is in how firms underwrite conviction early and actually win those deals.\n\nOr look at the handful of firms that have built entire franchises by backing Elon again and again - SpaceX, Tesla, The Boring Company, etc. The sourcing channel is no secret; the access is. And that access comes from relationships earned over decades.\n\nEveryone’s searching for a sourcing “hack.” The truth is, there isn’t one. The only real proprietary network in venture is your reputation. \n\nSo when LPs ask about sourcing, I try to reframe the question. It’s not where we find companies but it’s why the best founders choose to work with us once they’re found. \n\nThat’s the real edge, and it’s built over years, not through a single channel or campaign.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-28","value":2,"startTime":1761523200000,"endTime":1761609600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,133],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982861967221240040","view_count":417,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761586107000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982861967221240040","full_text":"Every airport lounge is like:\n\n“Our menu is thoughtfully curated by award-winning chef _______” with some random I've never heard of.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982863864191713386","view_count":3987,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761586559000,"favorite_count":21,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982863864191713386","full_text":"Every airport lounge is like:\n\n“Our menu is thoughtfully curated by award-winning chef ____” with some random I've never heard of.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-29","value":0,"startTime":1761609600000,"endTime":1761696000000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-30","value":29,"startTime":1761696000000,"endTime":1761782400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983566611404521838","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761754107000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983566611404521838","full_text":"I had a funny conversation with an LP a couple weeks back where he said, \"If I hear another venture capitalist say the words 'prepared mind' again, I will go crazy.\" \n\nThere are many terms like this that get repeated in GP land, especially during AGM season when we’re all bumping into each other often: \n\n • Thesis-driven\n • Thematic \n • Research-driven\n • Prepared mind\n • First principles\n\nThe list goes on. \n\nAs a starting point, if you're an investor, you should absolutely be all these things. \n\nYour job is to develop a point of view on the world, identify a set of problems that you think will become big markets, and find the best founders to solve those problems.\n\nThe concept of a prepared mind has mostly been co-opted for fundraising purposes in venture capital, but the concept is still important to practice and understand. \n\nAt its core, a prepared mind means that you have spent enough time in a given market to know when you meet a founder who is solving the right problem at the right time.\n\nThis is literally the job of an investor, so every single venture capitalist should have a prepared mind. \n\nAnyways, enough on this topic for now. I have a meeting with an LP, and I'm going into it with a prepared mind ;)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983567542862970996","view_count":18,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761754329000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983567542862970996","full_text":"I had a funny conversation with an LP a couple weeks back where he said, \"If I hear another venture capitalist say the words 'prepared mind' again, I will go crazy.\" \n\nThere are many terms like this that get repeated in GP land, especially during AGM season when we’re all bumping into each other often: \n\n • Thesis-driven\n • Thematic \n • Research-driven\n • Prepared mind\n • First principles\n\nThe list goes on. \n\nAs a starting point, if you're an investor, you should absolutely practice all these things, but in 99% of cases this isn’t a differentiated approach. \n\nYour job is to develop a point of view on the world, identify a set of problems that you think will become big markets, and find the best founders to solve those problems.\n\nCall it whatever you want but that’s what great investors do. \n\nThe concept of a prepared mind has mostly been co-opted for fundraising purposes in venture capital, but the concept is still important to practice and understand. \n\nAt its core, a prepared mind means that you have spent enough time in a given market to know when you meet a founder who is solving the right problem at the right time.\n\nThis is literally the job of an investor, so every single venture capitalist should have a prepared mind. \n\nAnyways, enough on this topic for now. I have a meeting with an LP, and I'm going into it with a prepared mind ;)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983568035559419942","view_count":11074,"bookmark_count":34,"created_at":1761754447000,"favorite_count":83,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":10,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983568035559419942","full_text":"I had a fun conversation with an LP a couple weeks back where he said, \"If I hear another venture capitalist say the words 'prepared mind' again, I will go crazy.\" \n\nThere are many terms like this that get repeated in GP land, especially during AGM season when we’re all bumping into each other often: \n\n • Thesis-driven\n • Thematic \n • Research-driven\n • Prepared mind\n • First principles\n\nThe list goes on. \n\nAs a starting point, if you're an investor, you should absolutely practice all these things, but in 99% of cases this isn’t a differentiated approach. \n\nBut yes, your job is to develop a point of view on the world, identify a set of problems that you think will become big markets, and find the best founders to solve those problems.\n\nCall it whatever you want but that’s what great investors do. \n\nThe concept of a prepared mind has mostly been co-opted for fundraising purposes in venture capital, but it’s still important to practice and understand. \n\nAt its core, a prepared mind means that you have spent enough time in a given market to know when you meet a founder who is solving the right problem at the right time.\n\nThis is literally the job of an investor, so every single venture capitalist should have a prepared mind. \n\nAnyways, enough on this topic for now. I have a meeting with an LP, and I'm going into it with a prepared mind ;)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,295],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983615157277487153","view_count":21522,"bookmark_count":56,"created_at":1761765681000,"favorite_count":73,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":13,"retweet_count":8,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983615157277487153","full_text":"Engagement -> Retention -> Monetization used to be the funnel of building products & companies. \n\nMonetization -> Engagement -> Retention is the order that I'm seeing founders prioritize today in the AI age.\n\nI love monetization & spent 5 years of my life waking up every day trying to increase subs/a la carte purchases while leading the revenue team at the top grossing app in the world. \n\nSo you would think I'd agree that monetization is what everybody should spend their time thinking about, but the answer is far more nuanced. \n\nWe hear the words \"Vibe Revenue\" or \"Experimental Revenue\" being thrown out a lot this year in podcasts and newsletters, and those are accurate terms to describe what so much of monetization feels like today. \n\nIn prior cycles, founders had to earn the right to focus on monetization by building a great product first. \n\nA great product can be subjective - we use the words 'taste' and 'craft' a lot, but you can also measure it by looking first at engagement & then studying retention. \n\nThe problem with focusing on monetization too early is that you create a false sense of success, especially if you haven't seen renewal cycles yet. \n\nI am guessing there is a significant percentage of new companies who stare at their engagement and retention data all day long (which might be going up & to the right) & know there are deep flaws in their product. \n\nBut they lean on monetization ($0-$10m in a year!) to make it seem like they've found product-market fit with their own teams & investors. \n\nIt's a lot of fun to make money. I had the most fun ever in my operating career leading revenue teams. It can be addicting at times. \n\nBut the only reason we became the top-grossing app in the world is because we had best-in-class engagement and retention metrics for our category. We earned the right to monetize. \n\nI hope we get back to a world where everything starts with engagement and retention. Then we can talk about revenue.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,96],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1983617932791050265","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/voxOtB2akT","expanded":"https://twitter.com/spenserskates/status/1983617932791050265","display":"x.com/spenserskates/…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983637002928189443","view_count":14244,"bookmark_count":8,"created_at":1761770890000,"favorite_count":69,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":6,"retweet_count":4,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983637002928189443","full_text":"100%. The feature-vs-company blur might be the defining question of this AI cycle for investors.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-31","value":60,"startTime":1761782400000,"endTime":1761868800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,279],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1219566488325017602","name":"Supabase","screen_name":"supabase","indices":[776,785]},{"id_str":"24486938","name":"Nikhil Basu Trivedi","screen_name":"nbt","indices":[2899,2903]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983834443648278593","view_count":148751,"bookmark_count":122,"created_at":1761817963000,"favorite_count":237,"quote_count":6,"reply_count":47,"retweet_count":13,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"I had a conversation with an investor yesterday who claimed there hasn’t been a hit consumer app in over five years.\n\nMy response: ChatGPT is a consumer app.\n\nHe pushed back saying “It started as a research lab, not a consumer company.”\n\nThat convo made me realize how broken our definition of “consumer” has become.\n\nYears ago, I invested in Superhuman after watching my friends (and my Twitter feed) rave about it nonstop. At the time, I was working at a consumer company, yet I never questioned whether Superhuman was “consumer” or not.\n\nPeople love Superhuman for both personal and work use & it’s a daily habit with engagement and retention stronger than most social apps. If that’s not consumer behavior, what is?\n\nThis might sound surprising to some, but I also viewed @supabase from a consumer lens when we invested in the pre-seed, despite it being an open source dev tool. More than the underlying technology, I was most fascinated by the bottoms up nature of how developers were adopting the database and how passionate the early community was about the product.\n\nOpen source projects arguably have stronger communities than most consumer products, and the behaviors are social by nature. They have some of most interesting network effects as every incremental developer makes the project stronger. This aligns perfectly with the classic definition of network effects. \n\nI’ve also always believed that products built by product-first founders, designed for broad, personal use should be considered consumer products. \n\nBut somewhere along the way, we invented the term prosumer, and it’s confused everyone. \n\nIt made these products sound like mini-enterprise tools, which undersells that they’re designed for mass-market behaviors wrapped in productivity.\n\nBy that logic, Superhuman, ChatGPT, Perplexity, and a growing list of “non-consumer” tools are absolutely consumer products.\n\nChatGPT alone has over 750 million weekly active users which is mainstream adoption by any definition. And as it evolves into agentic e-commerce and video gen tools like Sora, its use cases are only getting more personal.\n\nWhy does this matter?\n\nBecause category definitions drive fundraising.\n\nIf you’re a founder pitching a “consumer” product, your pool of potential investors shrinks dramatically. If you just look at how venture firms organize internally, they often literally split their teams by enterprise and consumer, which makes no sense to me. \n\nThe same goes for VCs pitching LPs where consumer is still viewed as a cyclical category. If you send a consumer venture fund deck to a large group of LPs, many categorically wouldn't take your pitch. \n\nIn reality “consumer” today looks nothing like “social, local, mobile” which is how so many people think of consumer. \n\nWork and life are blending, and the products we use every day at home & at work don’t fit cleanly into old boxes.\n\nMy friend @nbt once wrote about the consumerization of the enterprise saying:\n\n“Amazon the largest e-commerce (consumer!) company in the world, offers Amazon Web Services, the largest cloud services (enterprise!) business in the world.\n\nNVIDIA, the largest personal computer graphics (consumer!) company in the world, offers graphics processing units (GPUs) for artificial intelligence applications (enterprise!), and has seen its market cap grow 20X in the past decade since this dual focus.”\n\nThe next generation of breakout apps won’t be defined by where they’re used, but by how deeply they integrate into daily life.\n\nWe’re in the golden age of consumer products. 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I was still new at the company and trying to make a name for myself, so I showed up on December 22nd with just a few others.\n\n“Who’s that guy in the tracksuit?” one of our youngest engineers asked, looking up from his monitor.\n\nI glanced over and saw Barry Diller, owner of IAC and one of Tinder’s biggest shareholders.\n\nI didn’t know it at the time, but Barry (then 75 years old) had a tradition of visiting the Tinder office right before Christmas every year. He’d walk the floor asking questions, genuinely curious about what everyone was building.\n\nI watched him approach one of our engineers and ask, “What are you working on?”\n\nThe engineer started explaining what he was doing in very technical terms, and Barry listened without interrupting. I don’t think the engineer knew who he was because if he did, I’m pretty sure he would’ve been a lot more nervous explaining his code!\n\nA year later, in 2016, I made sure to be in the office those same few days before Christmas. The office was mostly empty again and we had just moved into a much larger space.\n\nSure enough, the guy in the tracksuit showed up again, right on cue. Barry Diller.\n\nHe made his rounds, saying hello and asking the few of us still in the office the same question: “What are you working on?”\n\nOne of the central themes of \"Who Knew\" and of Barry’s career is his obsession with understanding how things work at the most fundamental level:\n\n\"Only if I slowed everything down could I begin to understand all the parts and then try to rearrange them into something coherent. I tend to make things worse in the beginning as I fumble around trying to get to basic truths. Instinct, which I prize almost all else, doesn’t work very well for me in abstruse matters.\n\nI have to get to the core DNA on any matter, its logical essence, before I can add anything of value. This takes a lot of time, often to the irritation of faster thinkers, but when it does crystallize, I can’t be deterred.\n\nI listen with an extra ear, highly attuned to hear a new truth among the cacophony of voices in the room. When I catch that note, no matter what I might have thought before, I’ll change course in a second.\n\nIf I’ve ever had any kind of secret sauce, it’s the ability to hear conflicting, creative ideas bombarded around the room and extract something valuable.\n\nRecently in a meeting, someone complained that I wasn’t being consistent. I replied that I’m never consistent; I’ll turn on a dime if I hear a better truth.” \n- (Barry Diller, Who Knew)\n\nLooking back, I realize that when he asked what we were building, it wasn’t about oversight or management control. It was pure curiosity.\n\nMost leaders want to look smart. Barry wanted to get smart and understand the smallest molecule of what we were building, even on the sleepy days before Christmas.\n\nThe best investors and leaders don’t chase outcomes. They want to understand the wiring underneath.\n\nShow up, ask questions & keep asking until it makes sense. The tracksuit is optional.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[11,161],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"441679284","name":"brett goldstein","screen_name":"thatguybg","indices":[0,10]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"thatguybg","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983843170493382696","view_count":778,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761820044000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@thatguybg Most consumer apps have evolved their business models to subscriptions (same as bottoms up enterprise) and most have tiered pricing at this point too.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"441679284","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983842584788398438","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,293],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"13955342","name":"Trace Vertical Ai Cohen","screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983868789059154119","view_count":518,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761826152000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@Trace_Cohen 100%. On Supabase, they had a cultish community who loved the product before the pre-seed.\n\nAs an investor who does enterprise & consumer like myself, it was helpful to underwrite through a consumer lens.\n\nNow it's a mass market developer product selling to large enterprises.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"13955342","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983867417655750680","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[11,110],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1979921","name":"Josh Elman","screen_name":"joshelman","indices":[0,10]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"joshelman","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983892716288405682","view_count":930,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761831857000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@joshelman 100%. Also fwiw I think Josh Elman is invested in almost all the best consumer apps of his vintage!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1979921","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983892303245885616","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,85],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"35647451","name":"Turner Novak 🍌🧢","screen_name":"TurnerNovak","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"TurnerNovak","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983927717734047759","view_count":667,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761840202000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@TurnerNovak Haha! This was before i got pitched because someone thought I was an LP.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"35647451","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983926158862262518","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,43],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1054947848","name":"Nicole Priel","screen_name":"smallbigtalk","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"smallbigtalk","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983846327105544322","view_count":212,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761820797000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@smallbigtalk would love to read the thesis","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1054947848","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983846102391791901","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,269],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"3014388155","name":"Jeddi","screen_name":"antinertia","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"antinertia","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983857862607827087","view_count":232,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761823547000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@antinertia Prosumer is what they’ve called it historically but those companies tend to get discounted in fundraising from what I’ve seen.\n\nProbably because investors view them as being “in between” both markets. \n\nSo I don’t advise calling yourself a prosumer company.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"3014388155","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983857075298943121","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,32],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"41771957","name":"Ryan Morris","screen_name":"RyanMorris55","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"RyanMorris55","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983893392791925073","view_count":161,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761832018000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@RyanMorris55 Thank you brother!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"41771957","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983893276349415508","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,179],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"2363641","name":"jason yeh","screen_name":"jasonoliver","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"jasonoliver","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983952515470352895","view_count":431,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761846114000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@jasonoliver 100%. And shopping is coming fast with agentic e-commerce. ChatGPT (and its competitors) will end up owning dominant market share across multiple consumer categories.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"2363641","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983951551866831342","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[9,227],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"150388200","name":"Warren Shaeffer","screen_name":"wwshaef","indices":[0,8]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"wwshaef","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983946533159772285","view_count":272,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761844688000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@wwshaef I agree with your definition. Simple is very useful. \n\nMost bottoms-up software has consumer overlap. \n\nProductivity Software is a decent label but tends to devalue companies because there haven’t been many huge exits.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"150388200","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983945638405611746","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-01","value":1,"startTime":1761868800000,"endTime":1761955200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,124],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"39191312","name":"Kirsten Green","screen_name":"kirstenagreen","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"kirstenagreen","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1984113931565330944","view_count":863,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761884598000,"favorite_count":7,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1984107536052842496","full_text":"@kirstenagreen “ChatGPT wasn’t necessarily designed as a consumer product, but consumers claimed it anyway.”\n\nExactly right.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"39191312","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1984107536052842496","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[7,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"22961818","name":"Todd Jackson","screen_name":"tjack","indices":[0,6]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"tjack","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1984358200276382017","view_count":247,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761942837000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@tjack That's a great list, and 100% agree.\n\nConsumer gets anchored on social and things like DTC which is an outdated definition.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"22961818","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1984344313393004585","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-02","value":9,"startTime":1761955200000,"endTime":1762041600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/cf2xeuTten","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1984669264100618636/photo/1","id_str":"1984666463513559043","indices":[277,300],"media_key":"3_1984666463513559043","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4rzoiNbQAMI02X.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/cf2xeuTten","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1067,"w":1600,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":800,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":453,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":1067,"width":1600,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":72,"w":1600,"h":896},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1067,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":936,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":534,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1600,"h":1067}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1984666463513559043"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1718560501825933312","name":"Discipulus Ventures","screen_name":"DiscipulusVent","indices":[38,53]},{"id_str":"1213544133878370304","name":"Jakob Diepenbrock","screen_name":"jakobdiepen","indices":[73,85]},{"id_str":"1718560501825933312","name":"Discipulus Ventures","screen_name":"DiscipulusVent","indices":[38,53]},{"id_str":"1213544133878370304","name":"Jakob Diepenbrock","screen_name":"jakobdiepen","indices":[73,85]},{"id_str":"1333613797907582976","name":"Augustus Doricko","screen_name":"ADoricko","indices":[519,528]},{"id_str":"1716643091137056768","name":"Rainmaker Technology Corporation","screen_name":"RainmakerCorp","indices":[534,548]},{"id_str":"1152136922694766593","name":"Ted Feldmann","screen_name":"teddyfeld","indices":[550,560]},{"id_str":"1843811438332391427","name":"Durin","screen_name":"DurinMining","indices":[566,578]},{"id_str":"1435266698701991936","name":"Isaiah Taylor - 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But when I walked through the doors, I realized it wasn’t just a Bay Area thing. The room was packed with investors from all over the country who’d made the same trip. Clearly, something real is happening here.\n\nThe day started with a panel with @ADoricko from @RainmakerCorp, @teddyfeld from @DurinMining (Ch. 1 portfolio company), and @isaiah_p_taylor from @valaratomics along with @jakobdiepen - who gave a quick history lesson on El Segundo’s roots.\n\nBefore World War II, this city was home to Douglas Aircraft, builder of the SBD Dauntless dive bomber and a symbol of American industrial strength. It’s no accident that so many “America First” companies are being built here again. Founders in El Segundo are carrying that legacy forward.\n\nThey showed a map of the current startup ecosystem, which is 55+ companies, and most of them have come into existence since 2023. \n\nI know 55 companies doesn't sound like a huge number, but as you think about the venture capital interest and momentum that El Segundo has, it's easy to imagine that number becoming 100’s and 1000’s in years to come in the city and surrounding areas. \n\nOne of the other most interesting messages was how El Segundo is evolving from being a bit of a meme (which was very intentional to get people to pay attention) to now deploying products in the physical world. \n\nAugustus from Rainmaker had just gotten back from a trip to Oregon where they deployed rain the prior day (I believe he said the cloud seeding operation was 100m+ gallons). \n\nTed from Durin had recently successfully completed his first drilling operation in Nevada. Both companies have done so on modest budgets, and the founders challenged the idea that hard tech is as capital-intensive as most venture capitalists think. \n\nThe demo day featured ten companies spanning a wide range of sectors, all united around one core theme: strengthening America.\n\nThese founders are tackling hard, meaningful problems in areas like energy, autonomous manufacturing, commodity trading, heavy equipment procurement, autonomous farming, and oil and gas.\n\nIt’s worth noting that many of the companies aren’t pure hardware plays. Some are software-first, and others are software-enabled hardware, which, frankly, is what all hardware is becoming.\n\nMy takeaway is that there doesn’t need to be such a hard divide between hardware and software investors. These worlds are starting to blend, and I expect that collaboration to accelerate over the next few years.\n\nWhat’s clear is that El Segundo is here to stay & that @DiscipulusVent is building something special (I’m a proud LP in the fund). The founders here are working on serious problems, and the momentum is real. I’d bet the next demo day will draw an even bigger crowd of investors from across the country.\n\nVery bullish on El Segundo & the next chapter for LA tech.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-03","value":6,"startTime":1762041600000,"endTime":1762128000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,277],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1984846679720542704","view_count":2379,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1762059299000,"favorite_count":21,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":6,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1984846679720542704","full_text":"I grew up in the Bay Area as a Giants fan, but now live in Los Angeles and goes without saying, this city earned a championship this year. Congratulations to the Dodgers.\n\nFor anyone who’s been here, 2025 has been a brutal year for Los Angeles. The January 7th fires marked the start of years of loss and rebuilding. Tonight’s win gives people here something to rally around, something that actually feels good again.\n\nSports have a way of healing pain and heartbreak. Being in L.A. tonight feels like the city finally got a moment of relief.\n\nCongratulations to the Dodgers and to Los Angeles.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-04","value":0,"startTime":1762128000000,"endTime":1762214400000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-05","value":5,"startTime":1762214400000,"endTime":1762300800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,54],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1985639448785174836","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/8rm1V9sGlK","expanded":"https://twitter.com/uialexk/status/1985639448785174836","display":"x.com/uialexk/status…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1985707818230452710","view_count":9198,"bookmark_count":5,"created_at":1762264611000,"favorite_count":26,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1985707818230452710","full_text":"We have entered the large narrow sans serif slop phase","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,291],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1457278696931405828","name":"rosie (🔟/🔟)","screen_name":"therosieum","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"therosieum","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1985840026744189139","view_count":22,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762296132000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1984987750647333350","full_text":"This was a great post.\n\n“The problem is, you can’t build anything meaningful in 18 months. Real infrastructure takes at least 3–5 years. Real product-market fit requires iteration over years, not quarters.”\n\nThat said, I actually think those timelines are compressing.\n\nInfra can now be built in 1–2 years, and PMF can happen in weeks or months for strong applications.\n\nWe just need more original ideas - not the 75th prediction market.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1457278696931405828","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1984987750647333350","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-06","value":0,"startTime":1762300800000,"endTime":1762387200000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-07","value":7,"startTime":1762387200000,"endTime":1762473600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,134],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"768929915844513792","name":"Jamesin Seidel","screen_name":"seidtweets","indices":[123,134]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1986437434213544227","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/XjktPxYNjP","expanded":"https://twitter.com/viraj__acharya/status/1986437434213544227","display":"x.com/viraj__acharya…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986494295663386907","view_count":4971,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762452122000,"favorite_count":9,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986494295663386907","full_text":"Jamesin killed it as always.\n\nThe best venture firms earn the right to be “partners” & not just investors. \n\nWell done @seidtweets","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"44196397","name":"Elon Musk","screen_name":"elonmusk","indices":[64,73]},{"id_str":"44196397","name":"Elon Musk","screen_name":"elonmusk","indices":[64,73]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986557513740001382","view_count":3764,"bookmark_count":4,"created_at":1762467194000,"favorite_count":18,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986557513740001382","full_text":"Tesla AGM right now is all about the robots 🤖\nA few quotes from @elonmusk:\n\nOn scale:\n“Optimus is going to be the biggest product of all time. Bigger than cell phones. Bigger than anything else.”\n\nOn use cases:\n“There will be 3–5 industrial robots for every personal robot.”\n\nOn speed:\n“We’re going to launch the fastest production ramp of any large manufactured product, starting with a million-unit per year production line in Fremont.”\n\nRobots aren’t coming. They’re already here.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-08","value":17,"startTime":1762473600000,"endTime":1762560000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986839703291896042","view_count":9,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762534473000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986839703291896042","full_text":"The “hype video” startup trend will fade, just like every other form of attention arbitrage.\n\nI say that as someone who actually went to film school and loves video. But we’ve reached the point where agencies are producing hype videos for fundraising rounds just to trigger VC FOMO.\n\nVirality has never been easier to manufacture, or shorter-lived.\n\nSpending $25K on a product video might make sense from a valuation or dilution standpoint. But is that really the culture you want to build?\n\nAnd when the investors who FOMO’d into your round realize the growth story doesn’t hold up, how do you think that plays out?\n\nBuild great products. The hype video era is already getting stale.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986841507282964826","view_count":113,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1762534903000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986841507282964826","full_text":"The “hype video” startup trend will fade, just like every other form of attention arbitrage.\n\nI say that as someone who actually went to film school and loves video. But we’ve reached the point where agencies are producing hype videos for fundraising rounds just to trigger VC fomo. \n\nIt’s now part of the fundraising playbook:\n\nMake a pitch deck. Make a hype video. Go a little bit viral. Rinse and repeat.\n\nVirality has never been easier to manufacture, but it’s also never been shorter-lived.\n\nSpending $25K on a product video might make sense from a valuation or dilution standpoint. But is that really the culture you want to build?\n\nAnd when the investors who FOMO’d into your round realize the growth story doesn’t hold up, how do you think that plays out?\n\nBuild great products that solve real problems. The hype video era is already stale.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,275],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986848712908546121","view_count":18228,"bookmark_count":32,"created_at":1762536621000,"favorite_count":92,"quote_count":7,"reply_count":13,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986848712908546121","full_text":"The “hype video” startup trend will fade, just like every other form of attention arbitrage.\n\nI say that as someone who actually went to film school and loves video. But we’ve reached the point where agencies are producing hype videos for fundraising rounds just to create VC fomo. \n\nIt’s now part of the fundraising playbook:\n\nMake a pitch deck. Make a hype video. Go a little bit viral. Rinse & repeat.\n\nVirality has never been easier to manufacture, but it’s also never been shorter-lived. The investors you actually want around for the next decade can tell the difference.\n\nSpending $25K on a product video might make sense from a valuation or dilution standpoint. But is that really the culture you want to build?\n\nAnd when the investors who FOMO’d into your round realize the growth story doesn’t hold up, how do you think that plays out?\n\nBuild great products that solve real problems. The hype video era is already stale.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,215],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986892752286883962","view_count":3190,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1762547121000,"favorite_count":18,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986892752286883962","full_text":"The most important part of “staying in crypto” as an early stage investor is being completely unemotional about the markets.\n\nI feel nothing when our crypto book swings 20–30%.\n\nMaybe that’s unhealthy. But it works.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-09","value":35,"startTime":1762560000000,"endTime":1762646400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,234],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"787810160513200129","name":"Chapter One","screen_name":"chapterone","indices":[50,61]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986969884362940562","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762565511000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986969884362940562","full_text":"Yesterday we locked in two deals that will define @chapterone’s next chapter.\n\nOne: an incubation with a major IP partner (a year in the making).\n\nTwo: a product we’ll launch publicly soon with a major tech platform. \n\nAlways cooking.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,239],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"787810160513200129","name":"Chapter One","screen_name":"chapterone","indices":[50,61]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986970650532327456","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762565693000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986970650532327456","full_text":"Yesterday we locked in two deals that will define @chapterone’s next chapter.\n\nOne: an incubation with a major IP partner (a year in the making).\n\nTwo: a product we’ll launch publicly soon with a well known tech platform. \n\nAlways cooking.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,232],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"787810160513200129","name":"Chapter One","screen_name":"chapterone","indices":[50,61]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986970741779407185","view_count":6055,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1762565715000,"favorite_count":48,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986970741779407185","full_text":"Yesterday we locked in two deals that will define @chapterone’s next chapter.\n\nOne: an incubation with a major IP partner (a year in the making).\n\nTwo: a product we’ll launch publicly soon with a big tech platform. \n\nAlways cooking.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,281],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987236350836494777","view_count":164696,"bookmark_count":200,"created_at":1762629041000,"favorite_count":476,"quote_count":11,"reply_count":30,"retweet_count":21,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1987236350836494777","full_text":"Startup beef is always funny.\n\nYears ago, I worked at a marketplace & we decided Craigslist was our enemy. We built narratives around “beating” them, studied their every move, and even shaped internal goals around taking their users. I’m pretty sure they never thought about us once.\n\nLater, we shifted our obsession to TaskRabbit. Remember Taskrabbit? We spent so much energy trying to outdo them w/ pricing wars, feature debates, endless comparisons. But in the end, neither of us became a breakout, venture-scale success.\n\nThe real competitors were the ones playing a much bigger game: DoorDash, Instacart, Uber. We knew those founders personally, hung out with them at the same SF parties, but never saw them as direct competition. Turns out, they were just playing a different sport entirely.\n\nI see the same thing today in AI and crypto. Startups beefing over tiny overlaps, chasing small wins. Before you pick a fight, make sure you’re actually in a market worth winning. \n\nOtherwise, you’ll wake up every morning obsessed with a game that doesn’t matter.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,54],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"954060455831580672","name":"Molly O’Shea","screen_name":"MollySOShea","indices":[0,12]},{"id_str":"768929915844513792","name":"Jamesin Seidel","screen_name":"seidtweets","indices":[21,32]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"MollySOShea","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987168354260689078","view_count":85,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762612830000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986824069094822264","full_text":"@MollySOShea Talk to @seidtweets - she will have ideas","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"954060455831580672","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1986824069094822264","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,107],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"21706010","name":"Daniel Pearson","screen_name":"danielpearson","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"danielpearson","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987239060021387360","view_count":5021,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762629687000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1987236350836494777","full_text":"@danielpearson Love that Peter Thiel quote and very true.\n\nIf only we had venture funds at that point haha.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"21706010","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987237809229599115","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-10","value":0,"startTime":1762646400000,"endTime":1762732800000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-11","value":0,"startTime":1762732800000,"endTime":1762819200000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-12","value":0,"startTime":1762819200000,"endTime":1762905600000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-13","value":0,"startTime":1762905600000,"endTime":1762992000000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-14","value":19,"startTime":1762992000000,"endTime":1763078400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"4188045073","name":"Jordi Hays","screen_name":"jordihays","indices":[828,838]},{"id_str":"30736937","name":"John Coogan","screen_name":"johncoogan","indices":[841,852]},{"id_str":"1838288550569349120","name":"TBPN","screen_name":"tbpn","indices":[856,861]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988981359013163127","view_count":63,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763045084000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988981359013163127","full_text":"Venture Capital Musical Chairs\n\nWhen I first got into venture capital, I assumed that General Partners stayed at firms for most of their careers. From the outside, venture capital shops looked like stable institutions. At the very least, they felt more permanent than the startups they backed.\n\nThat assumption was dead wrong.\n\nBack then, I was at Tinder and a scout for Index Ventures. It was an awesome experience, but I definitely underestimated how turbulent things can be inside other venture firms I was co-investing with and getting to know more closely.\n\nThat turbulence has only accelerated in the last few years. Every week, I see partners leaving, firms reshaping their strategies, and LP relationships shifting. \n\nIt feels like watching ESPN at this point waiting for Shams to break some trade news. Luckily we have @jordihays & @johncoogan at @tbpn.\n\nFor founders, venture capital musical chairs feels like something happening on the other side of the table. You sense the industry shifting, but you’re busy building your company. Whatever chaos is unfolding inside venture firms isn’t exactly top of mind.\n\nBut you should be thinking about it a lot more. And here's why. \n\nWhen you raise from a venture firm, you don’t really raise from the firm. You raise from a specific partner. You take their calls, you trust their judgment, and you build your relationship around them. They’re the one who sits on your board, texts you late at night, and ideally, fights for you when things get tough. \n\nWhen they leave, you lose that advocate. Suddenly, the person who cared most about your survival inside the partnership is gone.\n\nIn today’s venture world, that partner may not even be around by the time your next fundraise rolls around. \n\nI was talking to a former partner at a multi-stage fund yesterday, and she told me that the average partner at a venture firm sticks around for 7 years. And when they leave, the implications for you are important to understand.\n\nWhat often happens next is that you become an “adopted company.” Other partners don’t rush to claim you, because supporting you doesn’t count toward their scoreboard. Venture is a business built on attribution, and if they didn’t source or lead your deal, the incentive to spend time helping you is low. You end up feeling like the kid at the dinner table nobody wants to introduce.\n\nBoard dynamics only make the problem worse. If your original partner leaves, their seat might be reassigned to someone who barely knows your business, or worse, someone who doesn’t care to. \n\nNow you’re wasting cycles re-educating a new person who has little emotional or financial attachment to your success. Instead of focusing on building, you’re back at square one, explaining the basics to someone who isn’t invested in your story.\n\nAnd then there’s the signaling risk. Other investors notice when your champion departs their firm. LPs notice too. Even if your company is performing well, your life will change.\n\n“Is the firm still supporting you?” You’ll get asked this question dozens of times by other investors, potential hires, and media. You can explain this pretty easily, but it’s just one of those annoying questions that you’ll have to talk about for many years to come.\n\nThis isn’t meant to be morbid. It’s a reminder to choose your partners carefully and understand their career trajectory and standing inside the firm.\n\nFundraising is chaotic right now. Bubble or not, founders and investors are speed-dating their way into big rounds, and everyone’s expected to build trust on a timeline that would be insane in any normal business relationship.\n\nMy best advice is don’t assume the partner you pick will be there forever. Get to know the rest of the partnership, understand how they think, and make sure you actually believe in the firm’s culture and ethos.\n\nA friend put it well yesterday: the only person who’s almost certainly sticking around is the founder of the firm. That’s the longest term partner you're getting into business with. You may not get much access to the founder(s) of a firm, but it’s still worth knowing their story, their reputation, and how they’ve shown up for founders over time.\n\nIf your deal sponsor is gone in a few years, would you still be proud to call that firm your investor? \n\nIf the answer is yes, great, but make sure you’re diligencing them as hard as they’re diligencing you.\n\nVenture Capital Musical Chairs isn’t stopping anytime soon. If anything, it will get much spicier as we understand which partners took massive AI swings that will generate many billions for their firms, or leave their firms holding the bag.\n\nIn either case, your partner still might leave. \n\nInvestors who crushed this AI wave might use that momentum to spin out and start their own firms. And the ones who didn’t get big wins in this cycle might be looking for new jobs soon for reasons we all understand.\n\nAs a founder, choose your partners carefully and make damn sure you’re not the last one left standing when the music stops. \n\nFin.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"4188045073","name":"Jordi Hays","screen_name":"jordihays","indices":[859,869]},{"id_str":"30736937","name":"John Coogan","screen_name":"johncoogan","indices":[872,883]},{"id_str":"1838288550569349120","name":"TBPN","screen_name":"tbpn","indices":[887,892]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988983199872004228","view_count":66136,"bookmark_count":126,"created_at":1763045523000,"favorite_count":165,"quote_count":6,"reply_count":19,"retweet_count":23,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"Venture Capital Musical Chairs (And Why Founders Should Care)\n\nWhen I first got into venture capital, I assumed that General Partners stayed at firms for most of their careers. From the outside, venture capital shops looked like stable institutions. At the very least, they felt more permanent than the startups they backed.\n\nThat assumption was dead wrong.\n\nBack then, I was at Tinder and a scout for Index Ventures. It was an awesome experience, but I definitely underestimated how turbulent things can be inside other venture firms I was co-investing with and getting to know more closely.\n\nThat turbulence has only accelerated in the last few years. Every week, I see partners leaving, firms reshaping their strategies, and LP relationships shifting. \n\nIt feels like watching ESPN at this point waiting for Shams to break some trade news. Luckily we have @jordihays & @johncoogan at @tbpn.\n\nFor founders, venture capital musical chairs feels like something happening on the other side of the table. You sense the industry shifting, but you’re busy building your company. Whatever chaos is unfolding inside venture firms isn’t exactly top of mind.\n\nBut you should be thinking about it a lot more. And here's why. \n\nWhen you raise from a venture firm, you don’t really raise from the firm. You raise from a specific partner. You take their calls, you trust their judgment, and you build your relationship around them. They’re the one who sits on your board, texts you late at night, and ideally, fights for you when things get tough. \n\nWhen they leave, you lose that advocate. Suddenly, the person who cared most about your survival inside the partnership is gone.\n\nIn today’s venture world, that partner may not even be around by the time your next fundraise rolls around. \n\nI was talking to a former partner at a multi-stage fund yesterday, and she told me that the average partner at a venture firm sticks around for 7 years. And when they leave, the implications for you are important to understand.\n\nWhat often happens next is that you become an “adopted company.” Other partners don’t rush to claim you, because supporting you doesn’t count toward their scoreboard. Venture is a business built on attribution, and if they didn’t source or lead your deal, the incentive to spend time helping you is low.\n\nBoard dynamics only make the problem worse. If your original partner leaves, their seat might be reassigned to someone who barely knows your business, or worse, someone who doesn’t care to. \n\nNow you’re wasting cycles re-educating a new person who has little emotional or financial attachment to your success. Instead of focusing on building, you’re back at square one, explaining the basics to someone who isn’t invested in your story.\n\nAnd then there’s the signaling risk. Other investors notice when your champion departs their firm. LPs notice too. Even if your company is performing well, your life will change.\n\n“Is the firm still supporting you?” You’ll get asked this question dozens of times by other investors, potential hires, and media. You can explain this pretty easily, but it’s just one of those annoying questions that you’ll have to talk about for many years to come.\n\nThis isn’t meant to be morbid. It’s a reminder to choose your partners carefully and understand their career trajectory and standing inside the firm.\n\nFundraising is chaotic right now. Bubble or not, founders and investors are speed-dating their way into big rounds, and everyone’s expected to build trust on a timeline that would be insane in any normal business relationship.\n\nMy best advice is don’t assume the partner you pick will be there forever. Get to know the rest of the partnership, understand how they think, and make sure you actually believe in the firm’s culture and ethos.\n\nA friend put it well yesterday: the only person who’s almost certainly sticking around is the founder of the firm. That’s the longest term partner you're getting into business with. You may not get much access to the founder(s) of a firm, but it’s still worth knowing their story, their reputation, and how they’ve shown up for founders over time.\n\nVenture Capital Musical Chairs isn’t stopping anytime soon. If anything, it will get much spicier as we understand which partners took massive AI swings that will generate many billions for their firms, or leave their firms holding the bag.\n\nIn either case, your partner still might leave. \n\nInvestors who crushed this AI wave might use that momentum to spin out and start their own firms. And the ones who didn’t get big wins in this cycle might be looking for new jobs soon for reasons we all understand.\n\nAs a founder, choose your partners carefully and make damn sure you’re not the last one left standing when the music stops. \n\nFin.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,75],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"35647451","name":"Turner Novak 🍌🧢","screen_name":"TurnerNovak","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"TurnerNovak","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988990321540399109","view_count":1308,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763047220000,"favorite_count":4,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"@TurnerNovak Very effective Sparknotes version - I need you to be my editor","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"35647451","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1988989896195756499","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-15","value":31,"startTime":1763078400000,"endTime":1763164800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,87],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1989156238018683215","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/Ssm5bH6JtM","expanded":"https://twitter.com/rohanpaul_ai/status/1989156238018683215","display":"x.com/rohanpaul_ai/s…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989213951863955480","view_count":2628,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1763100538000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989213951863955480","full_text":"Solana FDV: $80B (feels cheap)\nA 1-year-old AI startup: $50B\n\nWelcome to pure-vibes VC.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,121],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rsKQuQih8o","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1989184813312680086/photo/1","id_str":"1989184305332174848","indices":[122,145],"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5sAligbQAAxQo3.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rsKQuQih8o","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":977,"y":403,"h":520,"w":520},{"x":1347,"y":59,"h":635,"w":635},{"x":507,"y":376,"h":589,"w":589}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":572,"y":236,"h":304,"w":304},{"x":789,"y":35,"h":372,"w":372},{"x":297,"y":220,"h":345,"w":345}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":324,"y":134,"h":172,"w":172},{"x":447,"y":19,"h":211,"w":211},{"x":168,"y":124,"h":195,"w":195}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":1833,"y":757,"h":975,"w":975},{"x":2527,"y":112,"h":1192,"w":1192},{"x":952,"y":705,"h":1106,"w":1106}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1152,"w":2048,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":675,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":2160,"width":3840,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":10,"w":3840,"h":2150},{"x":552,"y":0,"w":2160,"h":2160},{"x":685,"y":0,"w":1895,"h":2160},{"x":1092,"y":0,"w":1080,"h":2160},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":3840,"h":2160}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[{"display_url":"x.com/OpenAI/status/…","expanded_url":"https://x.com/OpenAI/status/1989138776585851038","url":"https://t.co/5gFtHQYNiu","indices":[98,121]}],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rsKQuQih8o","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1989184813312680086/photo/1","id_str":"1989184305332174848","indices":[122,145],"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5sAligbQAAxQo3.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rsKQuQih8o","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":977,"y":403,"h":520,"w":520},{"x":1347,"y":59,"h":635,"w":635},{"x":507,"y":376,"h":589,"w":589}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":572,"y":236,"h":304,"w":304},{"x":789,"y":35,"h":372,"w":372},{"x":297,"y":220,"h":345,"w":345}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":324,"y":134,"h":172,"w":172},{"x":447,"y":19,"h":211,"w":211},{"x":168,"y":124,"h":195,"w":195}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":1833,"y":757,"h":975,"w":975},{"x":2527,"y":112,"h":1192,"w":1192},{"x":952,"y":705,"h":1106,"w":1106}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1152,"w":2048,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":675,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":2160,"width":3840,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":10,"w":3840,"h":2150},{"x":552,"y":0,"w":2160,"h":2160},{"x":685,"y":0,"w":1895,"h":2160},{"x":1092,"y":0,"w":1080,"h":2160},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":3840,"h":2160}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"quoted_status_id_str":"1983834443648278593","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/t56Kl9NM7f","expanded":"https://twitter.com/jmj/status/1983834443648278593","display":"x.com/jmj/status/198…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989184813312680086","view_count":19239,"bookmark_count":23,"created_at":1763093591000,"favorite_count":52,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989184813312680086","full_text":"ChatGPT now has group chats.\n\nCongrats to the newest social network on the internet. Case closed.\nhttps://t.co/5gFtHQYNiu https://t.co/rsKQuQih8o","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,282],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989423657438121993","view_count":21867,"bookmark_count":60,"created_at":1763150536000,"favorite_count":102,"quote_count":5,"reply_count":24,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"Vibe Investing Is the New Vibe Coding\n\nThe institutional memory of what happened in 2020–2022 is basically gone. It’s wild how quickly we as an industry forgot.\n\nI have a theory that our brains now process trauma & even financial bubbles in smaller and smaller increments. We’re living through the compression of emotional memory. Our tech industry systems take in stimuli that are too frequent, too loud, and too fast, so nothing sticks. \n\nI dug into my theory more (which you’ve likely felt intuitively but maybe haven’t articulated) and it turns out there’s actually a concept called “emotional amnesia\" which is a feeling numb or disconnected about what is happening around you.\n\nI won’t bore you with the academic details, but my takeaway as applied to venture capital is that the half-life on lessons learned (and in most businesses) is collapsing at the same pace you scroll a TikTok feed. We breeze past a $3B seed round at a $30B valuation like it’s a TMZ clip. \n\nAs a first-time manager who launched a fund in 2019, the 2020–2022 bubble left a permanent imprint on me. I’ll never forget what that period felt like. \n\nThe velocity, FOMO & the total detachment from fundamentals was intoxicating for everyone. Your seed check jumps from a $10M post to a $150M post in 30 days. Congrats… I guess? Because now you have to decide whether to follow on. And it’s a tier-one lead. What do you do?\n\nThat environment pushed every firm, including the great ones, into some objectively terrible decisions.\n\nAnd when I look at venture today, the industry barely resembles what it was even six years ago. We used to joke about “vibe investing” as the exception. The charismatic founder with cult-leader energy, the weird but magnetic pitch, the occasional “let’s take a flyer and see what happens.” Now it’s the norm. \n\nAura and an AI narrative = 10 term sheets.\n\nThere are insanely talented, credible operators building world-changing companies. But a $50B valuation for a pre-product seed round? Is that even venture capital? Call it whatever you want (and honestly we probably need a new category name) because it’s a completely different industry at this point.\n\nThe biggest takeaway is that at almost every stage from seed, growth, crossover, even public markets, we’re operating on vibes. Maybe I’m slowly becoming a boomer for even saying this.\n\nBut it's narrative over numbers, momentum over diligence, social proof over actual proof.\n\nCritics dunk on “vibe coding” as a Gen Z builder phenomenon that creates technical slop, but venture capital has built its own version: vibe investing.\n\nDrop a pitch deck into ChatGPT, run a Deep Research query, and boom “I don’t even need analysts anymore!” You skim the output in five minutes between pitch calls and try to stitch together a market thesis. Meanwhile the founder is a fundraising machine and every other firm is running the exact same Deep Research report you are.\n\nYou better move fast.\n\nSo you hop into Granola, grab one smart-sounding insight from your call, and paste it into Slack like you discovered fire. Your partners light up. Then you mention the founder already has multiple term sheets and suddenly everyone’s ready to clear their calendars.\n\nWe won’t know what turns into investment slop for a few years, but vibe-driven deals are definitely going to push that percentage way up. \n\nMaybe that’s fine & maybe this time really is different, and the outliers will paper over all the vibe-investing slop. But if you’re an emerging manager or running a concentrated portfolio, that’s a dangerous way to live. You don’t get to spray-and-pray your way out of vibes.\n\nRight now the vibes are insanely strong. It’s exciting. I feel just as fired up as everyone else and that energy is exactly why venture and technology keep marching forward.\n\nBut if I had one message today it would be this. \n\nGOOD LUCK AVOIDING THE SLOP.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,14],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"25232333","name":"Pat McGovern","screen_name":"pw_mcgovern","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"pw_mcgovern","lang":"qme","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989437186396332277","view_count":90,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763153761000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@pw_mcgovern 🔥","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"25232333","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989435465892606039","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,47],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"180030016","name":"davidfeiock","screen_name":"davidfeiock","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"davidfeiock","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989439081856864670","view_count":95,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763154213000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@davidfeiock Doing my best to please the people","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"180030016","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989438684970840404","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[16,33],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"90144647","name":"Viraj Acharya","screen_name":"Viraj__Acharya","indices":[0,15]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Viraj__Acharya","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989474730047672821","view_count":55,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763162712000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@Viraj__Acharya Haha yes happy to","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"90144647","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989469687676350678","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,283],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"729253848787738624","name":"george beall","screen_name":"GeorgePBeall","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"GeorgePBeall","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989425758935363750","view_count":254,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763151037000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@GeorgePBeall There will be a mean reversion as DPI gets realized. There is a category land grab right now, and the opportunity is massive, so capital is piling in. Long-term bullish on AI, but at some point, early stage investors will need to get back to some version of discipline.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"729253848787738624","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989425239139520664","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,292],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"13955342","name":"Trace Vertical Ai Cohen","screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989438237971300635","view_count":292,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1763154012000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"Agreed. I think the biggest mistake people will make is not knowing what game they're playing. An emerging manager with a smaller fund trying to execute on the multi-stage strategy is problematic. You have windows of opportunity where you can do things that are outside your core strategy, and putting guard rails on that bucket is hugely important. It's also really easy to let the guard rails down.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"13955342","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989437434082595107","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[11,103],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"192784466","name":"Jeff Richards","screen_name":"jrichlive","indices":[0,10]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"jrichlive","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989351865327472987","view_count":302,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763133419000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"@jrichlive Wild - will check back on this tweet in a few years so you can tell me about the 4th and 5th","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"192784466","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989350740587077902","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,37],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1449604717038825477","name":"Lucas Dickey","screen_name":"LucasDickey4","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"LucasDickey4","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989169728783524119","view_count":446,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763089994000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"@LucasDickey4 This is a great summary","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1449604717038825477","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989167000841777461","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-16","value":0,"startTime":1763164800000,"endTime":1763251200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[16,77],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1950463458648150016","name":"Stanley Wei","screen_name":"StanleyWei4748","indices":[0,15]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"StanleyWei4748","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989713118495490161","view_count":27,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763219549000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@StanleyWei4748 They were supposed to be the roaring 20s and we got this haha","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1950463458648150016","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989711120332910993","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[7,282],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"6874252","name":"Indus Khaitan","screen_name":"1ndus","indices":[0,6]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"1ndus","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989565798088937553","view_count":64,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763184425000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"There are great firms with more than four to five partners. I would just figure out who you're getting into business with and what that partners is standing at the firm. How long have they been there? Have they made any great investments yet? What's their career history look like? Are they someone who will bounce around a lot? 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They're basically priced the same. \n\nSome of the early tractions teams call these rounds \"seed extensions,\" and others stretch it to a Series A label. \n\nFor whatever reason, they haven't been treated as \"hot companies\" by the Series A market, but they're building very solid businesses that are growing well. \n\nI haven't come up with an exact terminology for these companies. They're generally not pure-play AI deals, but are often utilizing AI in interesting ways. The headline on the deck doesn't read AI deal, but they're real businesses. \n\nFor the sake of this essay, let's just call them \"AI tweeners\". \n\nThere is a temptation to invest in what is new (ie the brand new AI company raising at $20-$30m post) because you're investing in a cool story & get to help bring a new company to market & call yourself the lead. \n\nBut maybe the $40m \"AI tweener\" is a better bet. By paying a slight premium, you invest in a company that's figured a lot out, has revenue, and is building in a category that likely has less competition. \n\nThe challenge with investing in the $40M post is that you likely called yourself a seed firm to all of your limited partners, so your entry price is going to look like what has historically been called a Series A. Is this strategy drift, or is it being a good investor? \n\nIf your goal is to build the highest performing portfolio, investing in \"AI tweeners\" is the part of market that is likely most undervalued right now. \n\nSo maybe you should stop calling yourself a seed fund & invest in early traction companies while the rest of the market is obsessed with finding the next hot pre-product seed deal. \n\nJust some thoughts.\n\nOriginally written as a response to a tweet by @yrechtman, but creating a separate essay so more people can hopefully read it.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990865081354334636","view_count":7759,"bookmark_count":10,"created_at":1763494198000,"favorite_count":68,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":17,"retweet_count":4,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990865081354334636","full_text":"I am noticing a lot of apathy and despair in the crypto community right now. This is funny to me because we should all be basking in the opportunity to actually build valuable applications and companies right now.\n\nOne of the most common complaints in prior cycles was that crypto founders didn't have a fighting chance to run the experiments that they wanted to test due to regulatory battles. \n\nIn the United States, we have a very supportive regulatory environment right now, and it is possible to be a U.S. crypto founder in categories like Defi which were previously very dicey. \n\nBut for some reason, the mood amongst founders and investors is especially solemn right now.\n\nMy take is that building products and companies that people care about is incredibly hard, especially with AI dominating the headlines. \n\nIt was easy to use regulatory constraints as an excuse in prior cycles, and now that we no longer have that issue, we have to actually go build products that people use every day & care about. \n\nAnd these products can't be another L1/L2 or some abstract technical infrastructure that increases TPS or makes blockchains cheaper. We already have that. \n\nInfra was a convenient area for investors and founders to fund and build because you could TGE and get rich & punt on building applications. \n\nBut today, you have to go build applications that people care about. That's really it. There's almost nothing else to do on the infrastructure side to run the experiments that will validate how big crypto can be. \n\nThe industry needs to stop feeling sorry for itself and go prove that the many, many billions of dollars that have gone to the industry were building towards something meaningful. Stablecoins, payments, etc. are all obvious places to build real consumer value. \n\nNow is the time.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-20","value":0,"startTime":1763510400000,"endTime":1763596800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,228],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1915059354153160706","name":"moneydevkit","screen_name":"money_dev_kit","indices":[42,56]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1991151978953789614","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/EAfA4urbR2","expanded":"https://twitter.com/nickslaney/status/1991151978953789614","display":"x.com/nickslaney/sta…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1991154186755674513","view_count":171,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763563126000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1991154186755674513","full_text":"We’re thrilled to lead the seed round for @money_dev_kit. \n\nThey broke a world record today on the same day they announced the fundraise.\n\nNow the fastest way for anyone on earth to add payments. Builders are going to love this.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-21","value":0,"startTime":1763596800000,"endTime":1763683200000,"tweets":[]}],"nbookmarks":[{"label":"2025-10-22","value":2217,"startTime":1761004800000,"endTime":1761091200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":true,"display_text_range":[0,270],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rPx7ztdMGQ","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1980504752829132945/photo/1","id_str":"1980501236362153984","indices":[271,294],"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G3wnYZ6WkAAmnCh.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rPx7ztdMGQ","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":12,"y":110,"h":30,"w":30}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":422,"width":750,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":420},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":422,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":370,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":211,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":422}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rPx7ztdMGQ","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1980504752829132945/photo/1","id_str":"1980501236362153984","indices":[271,294],"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G3wnYZ6WkAAmnCh.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rPx7ztdMGQ","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":12,"y":110,"h":30,"w":30}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":422,"width":750,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":420},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":422,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":370,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":211,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":422}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980504752829132945","view_count":1096466,"bookmark_count":2205,"created_at":1761024103000,"favorite_count":28909,"quote_count":298,"reply_count":660,"retweet_count":3461,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"Everyone talks about AI slop. \nNo one talks about PE (private equity) slop.\n\n- restaurants that lost their soul\n- medical practices that feel like assembly lines\n- apartment buildings designed by an Excel formula\n\nThe algorithm didn’t kill culture. The margin model did. https://t.co/rPx7ztdMGQ","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,60],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"932630991298007041","name":"litquidity","screen_name":"litcapital","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"litcapital","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980648813561008268","view_count":24455,"bookmark_count":5,"created_at":1761058450000,"favorite_count":227,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@litcapital haha that’s what I’m saying, impossible to unsee","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"932630991298007041","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980647342371213594","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,51],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1301314271989518336","name":"illiquid","screen_name":"lefttailguy","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"lefttailguy","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980629841155330197","view_count":19708,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761053927000,"favorite_count":277,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@lefttailguy artisanal content, thank you very much","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1301314271989518336","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980628461417804114","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,161],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"156765498","name":"Michael Williams","screen_name":"mxwilliams","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"mxwilliams","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980633611884970415","view_count":14727,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761054826000,"favorite_count":149,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":16,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@mxwilliams maybe they would, most ppl hate going to the dentist for a variety of reasons.\n\n5% feels for a better experience is something ppl would prob pay for.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"156765498","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980632925075894309","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,134],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"14117767","name":"Jonas 🦩","screen_name":"jonaslamis","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"jonaslamis","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980506004510085379","view_count":17431,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761024402000,"favorite_count":126,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@jonaslamis You might be right. Maybe AI slop is just the tipping point that’s making us realize how sloppy the world has always been.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"14117767","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980505576590447033","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[17,63],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1081596786073128960","name":"Old white guy","screen_name":"obrecht_michael","indices":[0,16]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"obrecht_michael","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980676318359666791","view_count":11003,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1761065008000,"favorite_count":129,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@obrecht_michael thanks for sharing, not an easy thing to solve","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1081596786073128960","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980674670094373173","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-23","value":69,"startTime":1761091200000,"endTime":1761177600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,281],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981026514079805470","view_count":25016,"bookmark_count":69,"created_at":1761148501000,"favorite_count":210,"quote_count":3,"reply_count":26,"retweet_count":24,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981026514079805470","full_text":"There is a very big difference between running a venture fund and building a venture firm. \n\nI get a lot of aspiring venture capitalists who ask me about starting their own firm, and the quick thing I tell them is that they have to love company building & operations as much as they love investing. \n\nAt the end of the day, so much of your time is spent on fundraising, recruiting, and back office. You have to really love that stuff early on (or it least be good at it) when nobody is there to help you out.\n\nIf you don’t love the non-investing stuff or have enough self-awareness to know you're not good at it, you should definitely consider joining a platform. I have friends who are amazingly talented who have decided they only want to focus on investing, and they are very happy & many make a ton of money too. \n\nEasy to run a fund. Much harder to build a firm.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,237],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"935658795098832896","name":"Ibrahim S.","screen_name":"IbrahimS15","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"IbrahimS15","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980849065622683933","view_count":122,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761106194000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980666971650945285","full_text":"@IbrahimS15 This is the single best feedback from an interviewer that I've ever seen. I know it's hard to get past the rejection and the what-ifs of the opportunity, but use this as motivation, and you will do great things. Best of luck.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"935658795098832896","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980666971650945285","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-24","value":42,"startTime":1761177600000,"endTime":1761264000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981361260852892174","view_count":56764,"bookmark_count":42,"created_at":1761228311000,"favorite_count":96,"quote_count":5,"reply_count":20,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981361260852892174","full_text":"The death of SaaS has been overstated. \n\nWhen VCs or industry analysts say that SaaS is dead, they replace the word SaaS with AI agents or some other descriptor for B2B software.\n\nHuman addiction to technology is well known in the consumer space, and the same applies for anything in the enterprise. \n\nEnterprises are addicted to software, and whether the user is human or an agent doesn't matter. At the end of the day, there will always be a top 1% of founders and companies who design their software in a superior way to their competitors, and those will be massive companies where the TAM is even bigger than what was formerly called SaaS.\n\nSoftware is here to stay (with much more powerful capabilities!), which is such an obvious thing to state yet I'm hearing otherwise from my peers.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[9,288],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"6228302","name":"Sheel Mohnot","screen_name":"pitdesi","indices":[0,8]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"pitdesi","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981402156306760016","view_count":414,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761238061000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981381724702724256","full_text":"This is very true. \n\nI think from the outside, folks who hear this mistake the evolving business model with the death of an entire category of software.\n\nOrganizations are becoming even more software-obsessed, and there is a new generation of products that are quickly displacing incumbents. \n\nSoftware is obviously becoming easier to build, but the opportunity for venture capitalists is still massive. \n\nThese things feel so obvious to type, but you'd be surprised at how many conversations I have that revolve around this very topic.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"6228302","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981381724702724256","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[23,113],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"829946137","name":"Itai | dynamic.xyz","screen_name":"turbahn","indices":[0,8]},{"id_str":"1135606000868872192","name":"Fireblocks","screen_name":"FireblocksHQ","indices":[9,22]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"turbahn","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981417837395923151","view_count":264,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761241800000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981393151530254774","full_text":"@turbahn @FireblocksHQ Congrats, have loved working with you and the team the last few years. First class always.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"829946137","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981393151530254774","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-25","value":262,"startTime":1761264000000,"endTime":1761350400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981703025946501274","view_count":70,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761309794000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981703025946501274","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else you'll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should!), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. These are some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy and pursue the deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981703548401520684","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761309918000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981703548401520684","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else you'll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should!), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. These investments will stand out in your data room so you might as well get ahead of those conversations and explain your underwriting logic. \n\nThese are also some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy & pursue the really special deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981704081166016556","view_count":57,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761310045000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981704081166016556","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else you'll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. Those investments will stand out in your data room so you might as well get ahead of those conversations and explain your underwriting logic. \n\nThese are also some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy & pursue the really special deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981709123755610507","view_count":199549,"bookmark_count":256,"created_at":1761311248000,"favorite_count":346,"quote_count":18,"reply_count":23,"retweet_count":25,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else it’ll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. Those investments will stand out in your data room so you might as well get ahead of those conversations and explain your underwriting logic. \n\nThese are also some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy & pursue the really special deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,277],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"811350","name":"Alexis Ohanian 🗽","screen_name":"alexisohanian","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"alexisohanian","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981768701885264380","view_count":4259,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761325452000,"favorite_count":24,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@alexisohanian 100% true. I find that newer managers are more risk-averse to exceptions because they don't want to get fired by their LPs. If you study the history of venture capital, many of the best firms today became franchises in critical moments when they made exceptions.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"811350","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981767253252358505","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,286],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"69619073","name":"Andrew D'Souza","screen_name":"andrewdsouza","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"andrewdsouza","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981777971267743913","view_count":1943,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761327662000,"favorite_count":15,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@andrewdsouza Most LPAs don’t have strict parameters around valuations.\n\nThey more often have definitions around:\n\n- what % of fund can go to a single investment \n\n- recycling % \n\n- deployment period \n\nMost of the time these exceptions aren’t made because GPs are scared of being wrong.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"69619073","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981777001078788107","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,220],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1945812818932170753","name":"Neo","screen_name":"neo3141111","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"neo3141111","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981736892283469930","view_count":1741,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761317868000,"favorite_count":15,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@neo3141111 You could look at a long list of hundreds of GPs who have world class track records that have invested after the pre-seed. A very easy list of people to study would be folks like Peter Thiel, Fred Wilson, etc","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1945812818932170753","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981734983279562826","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,23],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"20397708","name":"Niki Scevak","screen_name":"nikiscevak","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"nikiscevak","lang":"fr","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981860895103025450","view_count":1021,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761347433000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@nikiscevak Raise in SF","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"20397708","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981860111879672307","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,45],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"75409972","name":"Josh Porter","screen_name":"joshdotporter","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"joshdotporter","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981818015080673366","view_count":950,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761337209000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@joshdotporter ty great seeing you this week!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"75409972","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981812251968545118","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,25],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1764321378507931648","name":"Rohan","screen_name":"proxy_vector","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"proxy_vector","lang":"ca","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981757033461481979","view_count":933,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761322670000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@proxy_vector 100 percent","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1764321378507931648","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981748076227301597","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,294],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"175934436","name":"Paul Yacoubian","screen_name":"PaulYacoubian","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"PaulYacoubian","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981706003306746307","view_count":1639,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761310504000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981704081166016556","full_text":"Ha, this is a dangerous game to play because exit value is the model input that tends to be the most hand-wavy. It's really easy to change the exit value from $10B to $20B and have your entire model look like a work of art.\n\nI find that newer investors overestimate exit value on their investment proposals, and that the model assumption is normally tied to a 1x RTF (return the fund) outcome when your winners should math out to outcomes that are far greater like 3x-5x net or above. \n\nGetting the RTF model to make sense is becoming harder to build as entry prices become higher. The math just doesn't math out most of the time. So some just change that exit value to $1T and do the deal :)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"175934436","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981704634734711025","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-26","value":0,"startTime":1761350400000,"endTime":1761436800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,132],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"6781512","name":"Martin Tobias (Pre-Seed VC)","screen_name":"MartinGTobias","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"MartinGTobias","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982144968669135150","view_count":658,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761415161000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@MartinGTobias 100%. Fully believe that an 80/20 core vs. \"breaking the rules\" barbell strategy is the best for an early-stage firm.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"6781512","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1982141432950391154","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-27","value":130,"startTime":1761436800000,"endTime":1761523200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982472740914540939","view_count":880,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1761493308000,"favorite_count":7,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982472740914540939","full_text":"One of the most common questions you’ll get when fundraising for a venture fund is about sourcing. \n\nLPs are ultimately buying into your thesis and your access, so it makes sense that sourcing is one of the first questions.\n\nThe question is hard to answer because sourcing usually comes from many different channels & almost every VC believes their approach is better than their peers’.\n\nI can’t even imagine how confusing it must be for an LP who covers venture as part of a broader portfolio to figure out what’s real and what’s not. They get pitched by hundreds of managers a year, all claiming the same “proprietary deal flow” story.\n\nSo I figured I’d write a quick note on how I think about sourcing.\n\nI like to compare sourcing to multi-channel marketing. You have multiple inputs driving top of funnel, and ideally three or four strategies that create a sourcing flywheel.\n\nIt sometimes feels like LPs are searching for a single channel they can bring to their IC and say, “Look, they have a better sourcing engine.” But relying on one channel is risky. The game changes & so do relationships and competition.\n\nSourcing is never a magic bullet. Despite the debates, I don’t believe anyone has a true proprietary sourcing advantage beyond their reputation.\n\nSpeaking of proprietary networks... \n\nI met with a well-known GP recently who is now investing in a small number of funds & he asked which proprietary networks we have access to. It was a fair question, but I pushed back bc there are no truly proprietary networks in venture anymore.\n\nTake YC, for example. Founders could easily join other accelerators or raise the traditional way, but they choose YC because they trust it will get them further, faster. That trust is the differentiator.\n\nOr look at the handful of firms that have built entire franchises by backing Elon again and again - SpaceX, Tesla, The Boring Company, etc. The sourcing channel is no secret; the access is. And that access comes from relationships earned over decades.\n\nEveryone’s searching for a sourcing “hack.” The truth is, there isn’t one. The only real proprietary network in venture is your reputation. \n\nSo when LPs ask about sourcing, I try to reframe the question. It’s not where we find companies but it’s why the best founders choose to work with us once they’re found. \n\nThat’s the real edge, and it’s built over years, not through a single channel or campaign.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982476724895113555","view_count":17942,"bookmark_count":127,"created_at":1761494258000,"favorite_count":147,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":8,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982476724895113555","full_text":"One of the most common questions you’ll get when fundraising for a venture fund is about sourcing. \n\nLPs are ultimately buying into your thesis and your access, so it makes sense that sourcing is one of the first questions.\n\nThe question is hard to answer because sourcing usually comes from many different channels & almost every VC believes their approach is better than their peers’.\n\nI can’t even imagine how confusing it must be for an LP who covers venture as part of a broader portfolio to figure out what’s real and what’s not. They get pitched by hundreds of managers a year, all claiming the same “proprietary deal flow” story.\n\nSo I figured I’d write a quick note on how I think about sourcing.\n\nI like to compare sourcing to multi-channel marketing. You have multiple inputs driving top of funnel, and ideally three or four strategies that create a sourcing flywheel.\n\nIt sometimes feels like LPs are searching for a single channel they can bring to their IC and say, “Look, they have a better sourcing engine.” But relying on one channel is risky. The game changes & so do relationships and competition.\n\nSourcing is never a magic bullet. Despite the debates, I don’t believe anyone has a true proprietary sourcing advantage beyond their reputation.\n\nSpeaking of proprietary networks... \n\nI met with a well-known GP recently who is now investing in a small number of funds & he asked which proprietary networks we have access to. It was a fair question, but I pushed back bc there are no truly proprietary networks in venture anymore.\n\nTake YC. Founders could easily join other accelerators or raise the traditional way, but they choose YC because they trust it will get them further, faster. YC doesn’t have a proprietary network - it has a brand that founders want to be associated with. They trust YC to be the best Day 1 partner to help them build something valuable.\n\nWhat’s even more interesting is what happens after YC. Because it’s such an efficient marketplace, every venture firm has access to the same company list - it’s one of the most transparent markets in venture. We all know each batch will include a handful of outliers. None of that is proprietary sourcing. The real differentiation is in how firms underwrite conviction early and actually win those deals.\n\nOr look at the handful of firms that have built entire franchises by backing Elon again and again - SpaceX, Tesla, The Boring Company, etc. The sourcing channel is no secret; the access is. And that access comes from relationships earned over decades.\n\nEveryone’s searching for a sourcing “hack.” The truth is, there isn’t one. The only real proprietary network in venture is your reputation. \n\nSo when LPs ask about sourcing, I try to reframe the question. It’s not where we find companies but it’s why the best founders choose to work with us once they’re found. \n\nThat’s the real edge, and it’s built over years, not through a single channel or campaign.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-28","value":0,"startTime":1761523200000,"endTime":1761609600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,133],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982861967221240040","view_count":417,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761586107000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982861967221240040","full_text":"Every airport lounge is like:\n\n“Our menu is thoughtfully curated by award-winning chef _______” with some random I've never heard of.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982863864191713386","view_count":3987,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761586559000,"favorite_count":21,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982863864191713386","full_text":"Every airport lounge is like:\n\n“Our menu is thoughtfully curated by award-winning chef ____” with some random I've never heard of.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-29","value":0,"startTime":1761609600000,"endTime":1761696000000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-30","value":98,"startTime":1761696000000,"endTime":1761782400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983566611404521838","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761754107000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983566611404521838","full_text":"I had a funny conversation with an LP a couple weeks back where he said, \"If I hear another venture capitalist say the words 'prepared mind' again, I will go crazy.\" \n\nThere are many terms like this that get repeated in GP land, especially during AGM season when we’re all bumping into each other often: \n\n • Thesis-driven\n • Thematic \n • Research-driven\n • Prepared mind\n • First principles\n\nThe list goes on. \n\nAs a starting point, if you're an investor, you should absolutely be all these things. \n\nYour job is to develop a point of view on the world, identify a set of problems that you think will become big markets, and find the best founders to solve those problems.\n\nThe concept of a prepared mind has mostly been co-opted for fundraising purposes in venture capital, but the concept is still important to practice and understand. \n\nAt its core, a prepared mind means that you have spent enough time in a given market to know when you meet a founder who is solving the right problem at the right time.\n\nThis is literally the job of an investor, so every single venture capitalist should have a prepared mind. \n\nAnyways, enough on this topic for now. I have a meeting with an LP, and I'm going into it with a prepared mind ;)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983567542862970996","view_count":18,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761754329000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983567542862970996","full_text":"I had a funny conversation with an LP a couple weeks back where he said, \"If I hear another venture capitalist say the words 'prepared mind' again, I will go crazy.\" \n\nThere are many terms like this that get repeated in GP land, especially during AGM season when we’re all bumping into each other often: \n\n • Thesis-driven\n • Thematic \n • Research-driven\n • Prepared mind\n • First principles\n\nThe list goes on. \n\nAs a starting point, if you're an investor, you should absolutely practice all these things, but in 99% of cases this isn’t a differentiated approach. \n\nYour job is to develop a point of view on the world, identify a set of problems that you think will become big markets, and find the best founders to solve those problems.\n\nCall it whatever you want but that’s what great investors do. \n\nThe concept of a prepared mind has mostly been co-opted for fundraising purposes in venture capital, but the concept is still important to practice and understand. \n\nAt its core, a prepared mind means that you have spent enough time in a given market to know when you meet a founder who is solving the right problem at the right time.\n\nThis is literally the job of an investor, so every single venture capitalist should have a prepared mind. \n\nAnyways, enough on this topic for now. I have a meeting with an LP, and I'm going into it with a prepared mind ;)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983568035559419942","view_count":11074,"bookmark_count":34,"created_at":1761754447000,"favorite_count":83,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":10,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983568035559419942","full_text":"I had a fun conversation with an LP a couple weeks back where he said, \"If I hear another venture capitalist say the words 'prepared mind' again, I will go crazy.\" \n\nThere are many terms like this that get repeated in GP land, especially during AGM season when we’re all bumping into each other often: \n\n • Thesis-driven\n • Thematic \n • Research-driven\n • Prepared mind\n • First principles\n\nThe list goes on. \n\nAs a starting point, if you're an investor, you should absolutely practice all these things, but in 99% of cases this isn’t a differentiated approach. \n\nBut yes, your job is to develop a point of view on the world, identify a set of problems that you think will become big markets, and find the best founders to solve those problems.\n\nCall it whatever you want but that’s what great investors do. \n\nThe concept of a prepared mind has mostly been co-opted for fundraising purposes in venture capital, but it’s still important to practice and understand. \n\nAt its core, a prepared mind means that you have spent enough time in a given market to know when you meet a founder who is solving the right problem at the right time.\n\nThis is literally the job of an investor, so every single venture capitalist should have a prepared mind. \n\nAnyways, enough on this topic for now. I have a meeting with an LP, and I'm going into it with a prepared mind ;)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,295],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983615157277487153","view_count":21522,"bookmark_count":56,"created_at":1761765681000,"favorite_count":73,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":13,"retweet_count":8,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983615157277487153","full_text":"Engagement -> Retention -> Monetization used to be the funnel of building products & companies. \n\nMonetization -> Engagement -> Retention is the order that I'm seeing founders prioritize today in the AI age.\n\nI love monetization & spent 5 years of my life waking up every day trying to increase subs/a la carte purchases while leading the revenue team at the top grossing app in the world. \n\nSo you would think I'd agree that monetization is what everybody should spend their time thinking about, but the answer is far more nuanced. \n\nWe hear the words \"Vibe Revenue\" or \"Experimental Revenue\" being thrown out a lot this year in podcasts and newsletters, and those are accurate terms to describe what so much of monetization feels like today. \n\nIn prior cycles, founders had to earn the right to focus on monetization by building a great product first. \n\nA great product can be subjective - we use the words 'taste' and 'craft' a lot, but you can also measure it by looking first at engagement & then studying retention. \n\nThe problem with focusing on monetization too early is that you create a false sense of success, especially if you haven't seen renewal cycles yet. \n\nI am guessing there is a significant percentage of new companies who stare at their engagement and retention data all day long (which might be going up & to the right) & know there are deep flaws in their product. \n\nBut they lean on monetization ($0-$10m in a year!) to make it seem like they've found product-market fit with their own teams & investors. \n\nIt's a lot of fun to make money. I had the most fun ever in my operating career leading revenue teams. It can be addicting at times. \n\nBut the only reason we became the top-grossing app in the world is because we had best-in-class engagement and retention metrics for our category. We earned the right to monetize. \n\nI hope we get back to a world where everything starts with engagement and retention. Then we can talk about revenue.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,96],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1983617932791050265","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/voxOtB2akT","expanded":"https://twitter.com/spenserskates/status/1983617932791050265","display":"x.com/spenserskates/…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983637002928189443","view_count":14244,"bookmark_count":8,"created_at":1761770890000,"favorite_count":69,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":6,"retweet_count":4,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983637002928189443","full_text":"100%. The feature-vs-company blur might be the defining question of this AI cycle for investors.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-31","value":146,"startTime":1761782400000,"endTime":1761868800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,279],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1219566488325017602","name":"Supabase","screen_name":"supabase","indices":[776,785]},{"id_str":"24486938","name":"Nikhil Basu Trivedi","screen_name":"nbt","indices":[2899,2903]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983834443648278593","view_count":148751,"bookmark_count":122,"created_at":1761817963000,"favorite_count":237,"quote_count":6,"reply_count":47,"retweet_count":13,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"I had a conversation with an investor yesterday who claimed there hasn’t been a hit consumer app in over five years.\n\nMy response: ChatGPT is a consumer app.\n\nHe pushed back saying “It started as a research lab, not a consumer company.”\n\nThat convo made me realize how broken our definition of “consumer” has become.\n\nYears ago, I invested in Superhuman after watching my friends (and my Twitter feed) rave about it nonstop. At the time, I was working at a consumer company, yet I never questioned whether Superhuman was “consumer” or not.\n\nPeople love Superhuman for both personal and work use & it’s a daily habit with engagement and retention stronger than most social apps. If that’s not consumer behavior, what is?\n\nThis might sound surprising to some, but I also viewed @supabase from a consumer lens when we invested in the pre-seed, despite it being an open source dev tool. More than the underlying technology, I was most fascinated by the bottoms up nature of how developers were adopting the database and how passionate the early community was about the product.\n\nOpen source projects arguably have stronger communities than most consumer products, and the behaviors are social by nature. They have some of most interesting network effects as every incremental developer makes the project stronger. This aligns perfectly with the classic definition of network effects. \n\nI’ve also always believed that products built by product-first founders, designed for broad, personal use should be considered consumer products. \n\nBut somewhere along the way, we invented the term prosumer, and it’s confused everyone. \n\nIt made these products sound like mini-enterprise tools, which undersells that they’re designed for mass-market behaviors wrapped in productivity.\n\nBy that logic, Superhuman, ChatGPT, Perplexity, and a growing list of “non-consumer” tools are absolutely consumer products.\n\nChatGPT alone has over 750 million weekly active users which is mainstream adoption by any definition. And as it evolves into agentic e-commerce and video gen tools like Sora, its use cases are only getting more personal.\n\nWhy does this matter?\n\nBecause category definitions drive fundraising.\n\nIf you’re a founder pitching a “consumer” product, your pool of potential investors shrinks dramatically. If you just look at how venture firms organize internally, they often literally split their teams by enterprise and consumer, which makes no sense to me. \n\nThe same goes for VCs pitching LPs where consumer is still viewed as a cyclical category. If you send a consumer venture fund deck to a large group of LPs, many categorically wouldn't take your pitch. \n\nIn reality “consumer” today looks nothing like “social, local, mobile” which is how so many people think of consumer. \n\nWork and life are blending, and the products we use every day at home & at work don’t fit cleanly into old boxes.\n\nMy friend @nbt once wrote about the consumerization of the enterprise saying:\n\n“Amazon the largest e-commerce (consumer!) company in the world, offers Amazon Web Services, the largest cloud services (enterprise!) business in the world.\n\nNVIDIA, the largest personal computer graphics (consumer!) company in the world, offers graphics processing units (GPUs) for artificial intelligence applications (enterprise!), and has seen its market cap grow 20X in the past decade since this dual focus.”\n\nThe next generation of breakout apps won’t be defined by where they’re used, but by how deeply they integrate into daily life.\n\nWe’re in the golden age of consumer products. 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I was still new at the company and trying to make a name for myself, so I showed up on December 22nd with just a few others.\n\n“Who’s that guy in the tracksuit?” one of our youngest engineers asked, looking up from his monitor.\n\nI glanced over and saw Barry Diller, owner of IAC and one of Tinder’s biggest shareholders.\n\nI didn’t know it at the time, but Barry (then 75 years old) had a tradition of visiting the Tinder office right before Christmas every year. He’d walk the floor asking questions, genuinely curious about what everyone was building.\n\nI watched him approach one of our engineers and ask, “What are you working on?”\n\nThe engineer started explaining what he was doing in very technical terms, and Barry listened without interrupting. I don’t think the engineer knew who he was because if he did, I’m pretty sure he would’ve been a lot more nervous explaining his code!\n\nA year later, in 2016, I made sure to be in the office those same few days before Christmas. The office was mostly empty again and we had just moved into a much larger space.\n\nSure enough, the guy in the tracksuit showed up again, right on cue. Barry Diller.\n\nHe made his rounds, saying hello and asking the few of us still in the office the same question: “What are you working on?”\n\nOne of the central themes of \"Who Knew\" and of Barry’s career is his obsession with understanding how things work at the most fundamental level:\n\n\"Only if I slowed everything down could I begin to understand all the parts and then try to rearrange them into something coherent. I tend to make things worse in the beginning as I fumble around trying to get to basic truths. Instinct, which I prize almost all else, doesn’t work very well for me in abstruse matters.\n\nI have to get to the core DNA on any matter, its logical essence, before I can add anything of value. This takes a lot of time, often to the irritation of faster thinkers, but when it does crystallize, I can’t be deterred.\n\nI listen with an extra ear, highly attuned to hear a new truth among the cacophony of voices in the room. When I catch that note, no matter what I might have thought before, I’ll change course in a second.\n\nIf I’ve ever had any kind of secret sauce, it’s the ability to hear conflicting, creative ideas bombarded around the room and extract something valuable.\n\nRecently in a meeting, someone complained that I wasn’t being consistent. I replied that I’m never consistent; I’ll turn on a dime if I hear a better truth.” \n- (Barry Diller, Who Knew)\n\nLooking back, I realize that when he asked what we were building, it wasn’t about oversight or management control. It was pure curiosity.\n\nMost leaders want to look smart. Barry wanted to get smart and understand the smallest molecule of what we were building, even on the sleepy days before Christmas.\n\nThe best investors and leaders don’t chase outcomes. They want to understand the wiring underneath.\n\nShow up, ask questions & keep asking until it makes sense. The tracksuit is optional.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[11,161],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"441679284","name":"brett goldstein","screen_name":"thatguybg","indices":[0,10]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"thatguybg","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983843170493382696","view_count":778,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761820044000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@thatguybg Most consumer apps have evolved their business models to subscriptions (same as bottoms up enterprise) and most have tiered pricing at this point too.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"441679284","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983842584788398438","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,293],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"13955342","name":"Trace Vertical Ai Cohen","screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983868789059154119","view_count":518,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761826152000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@Trace_Cohen 100%. On Supabase, they had a cultish community who loved the product before the pre-seed.\n\nAs an investor who does enterprise & consumer like myself, it was helpful to underwrite through a consumer lens.\n\nNow it's a mass market developer product selling to large enterprises.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"13955342","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983867417655750680","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[11,110],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1979921","name":"Josh Elman","screen_name":"joshelman","indices":[0,10]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"joshelman","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983892716288405682","view_count":930,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761831857000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@joshelman 100%. Also fwiw I think Josh Elman is invested in almost all the best consumer apps of his vintage!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1979921","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983892303245885616","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,85],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"35647451","name":"Turner Novak 🍌🧢","screen_name":"TurnerNovak","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"TurnerNovak","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983927717734047759","view_count":667,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761840202000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@TurnerNovak Haha! This was before i got pitched because someone thought I was an LP.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"35647451","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983926158862262518","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,43],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1054947848","name":"Nicole Priel","screen_name":"smallbigtalk","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"smallbigtalk","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983846327105544322","view_count":212,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761820797000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@smallbigtalk would love to read the thesis","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1054947848","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983846102391791901","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,269],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"3014388155","name":"Jeddi","screen_name":"antinertia","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"antinertia","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983857862607827087","view_count":232,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761823547000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@antinertia Prosumer is what they’ve called it historically but those companies tend to get discounted in fundraising from what I’ve seen.\n\nProbably because investors view them as being “in between” both markets. \n\nSo I don’t advise calling yourself a prosumer company.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"3014388155","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983857075298943121","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,32],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"41771957","name":"Ryan Morris","screen_name":"RyanMorris55","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"RyanMorris55","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983893392791925073","view_count":161,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761832018000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@RyanMorris55 Thank you brother!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"41771957","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983893276349415508","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,179],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"2363641","name":"jason yeh","screen_name":"jasonoliver","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"jasonoliver","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983952515470352895","view_count":431,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761846114000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@jasonoliver 100%. And shopping is coming fast with agentic e-commerce. ChatGPT (and its competitors) will end up owning dominant market share across multiple consumer categories.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"2363641","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983951551866831342","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[9,227],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"150388200","name":"Warren Shaeffer","screen_name":"wwshaef","indices":[0,8]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"wwshaef","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983946533159772285","view_count":272,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761844688000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@wwshaef I agree with your definition. Simple is very useful. \n\nMost bottoms-up software has consumer overlap. \n\nProductivity Software is a decent label but tends to devalue companies because there haven’t been many huge exits.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"150388200","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983945638405611746","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-01","value":1,"startTime":1761868800000,"endTime":1761955200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,124],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"39191312","name":"Kirsten Green","screen_name":"kirstenagreen","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"kirstenagreen","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1984113931565330944","view_count":863,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761884598000,"favorite_count":7,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1984107536052842496","full_text":"@kirstenagreen “ChatGPT wasn’t necessarily designed as a consumer product, but consumers claimed it anyway.”\n\nExactly right.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"39191312","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1984107536052842496","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[7,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"22961818","name":"Todd Jackson","screen_name":"tjack","indices":[0,6]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"tjack","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1984358200276382017","view_count":247,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761942837000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@tjack That's a great list, and 100% agree.\n\nConsumer gets anchored on social and things like DTC which is an outdated definition.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"22961818","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1984344313393004585","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-02","value":16,"startTime":1761955200000,"endTime":1762041600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/cf2xeuTten","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1984669264100618636/photo/1","id_str":"1984666463513559043","indices":[277,300],"media_key":"3_1984666463513559043","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4rzoiNbQAMI02X.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/cf2xeuTten","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1067,"w":1600,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":800,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":453,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":1067,"width":1600,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":72,"w":1600,"h":896},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1067,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":936,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":534,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1600,"h":1067}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1984666463513559043"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1718560501825933312","name":"Discipulus Ventures","screen_name":"DiscipulusVent","indices":[38,53]},{"id_str":"1213544133878370304","name":"Jakob Diepenbrock","screen_name":"jakobdiepen","indices":[73,85]},{"id_str":"1718560501825933312","name":"Discipulus Ventures","screen_name":"DiscipulusVent","indices":[38,53]},{"id_str":"1213544133878370304","name":"Jakob Diepenbrock","screen_name":"jakobdiepen","indices":[73,85]},{"id_str":"1333613797907582976","name":"Augustus Doricko","screen_name":"ADoricko","indices":[519,528]},{"id_str":"1716643091137056768","name":"Rainmaker Technology Corporation","screen_name":"RainmakerCorp","indices":[534,548]},{"id_str":"1152136922694766593","name":"Ted Feldmann","screen_name":"teddyfeld","indices":[550,560]},{"id_str":"1843811438332391427","name":"Durin","screen_name":"DurinMining","indices":[566,578]},{"id_str":"1435266698701991936","name":"Isaiah Taylor - 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But when I walked through the doors, I realized it wasn’t just a Bay Area thing. The room was packed with investors from all over the country who’d made the same trip. Clearly, something real is happening here.\n\nThe day started with a panel with @ADoricko from @RainmakerCorp, @teddyfeld from @DurinMining (Ch. 1 portfolio company), and @isaiah_p_taylor from @valaratomics along with @jakobdiepen - who gave a quick history lesson on El Segundo’s roots.\n\nBefore World War II, this city was home to Douglas Aircraft, builder of the SBD Dauntless dive bomber and a symbol of American industrial strength. It’s no accident that so many “America First” companies are being built here again. Founders in El Segundo are carrying that legacy forward.\n\nThey showed a map of the current startup ecosystem, which is 55+ companies, and most of them have come into existence since 2023. \n\nI know 55 companies doesn't sound like a huge number, but as you think about the venture capital interest and momentum that El Segundo has, it's easy to imagine that number becoming 100’s and 1000’s in years to come in the city and surrounding areas. \n\nOne of the other most interesting messages was how El Segundo is evolving from being a bit of a meme (which was very intentional to get people to pay attention) to now deploying products in the physical world. \n\nAugustus from Rainmaker had just gotten back from a trip to Oregon where they deployed rain the prior day (I believe he said the cloud seeding operation was 100m+ gallons). \n\nTed from Durin had recently successfully completed his first drilling operation in Nevada. Both companies have done so on modest budgets, and the founders challenged the idea that hard tech is as capital-intensive as most venture capitalists think. \n\nThe demo day featured ten companies spanning a wide range of sectors, all united around one core theme: strengthening America.\n\nThese founders are tackling hard, meaningful problems in areas like energy, autonomous manufacturing, commodity trading, heavy equipment procurement, autonomous farming, and oil and gas.\n\nIt’s worth noting that many of the companies aren’t pure hardware plays. Some are software-first, and others are software-enabled hardware, which, frankly, is what all hardware is becoming.\n\nMy takeaway is that there doesn’t need to be such a hard divide between hardware and software investors. These worlds are starting to blend, and I expect that collaboration to accelerate over the next few years.\n\nWhat’s clear is that El Segundo is here to stay & that @DiscipulusVent is building something special (I’m a proud LP in the fund). The founders here are working on serious problems, and the momentum is real. I’d bet the next demo day will draw an even bigger crowd of investors from across the country.\n\nVery bullish on El Segundo & the next chapter for LA tech.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-03","value":2,"startTime":1762041600000,"endTime":1762128000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,277],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1984846679720542704","view_count":2379,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1762059299000,"favorite_count":21,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":6,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1984846679720542704","full_text":"I grew up in the Bay Area as a Giants fan, but now live in Los Angeles and goes without saying, this city earned a championship this year. Congratulations to the Dodgers.\n\nFor anyone who’s been here, 2025 has been a brutal year for Los Angeles. The January 7th fires marked the start of years of loss and rebuilding. Tonight’s win gives people here something to rally around, something that actually feels good again.\n\nSports have a way of healing pain and heartbreak. Being in L.A. tonight feels like the city finally got a moment of relief.\n\nCongratulations to the Dodgers and to Los Angeles.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-04","value":0,"startTime":1762128000000,"endTime":1762214400000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-05","value":5,"startTime":1762214400000,"endTime":1762300800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,54],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1985639448785174836","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/8rm1V9sGlK","expanded":"https://twitter.com/uialexk/status/1985639448785174836","display":"x.com/uialexk/status…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1985707818230452710","view_count":9198,"bookmark_count":5,"created_at":1762264611000,"favorite_count":26,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1985707818230452710","full_text":"We have entered the large narrow sans serif slop phase","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,291],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1457278696931405828","name":"rosie (🔟/🔟)","screen_name":"therosieum","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"therosieum","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1985840026744189139","view_count":22,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762296132000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1984987750647333350","full_text":"This was a great post.\n\n“The problem is, you can’t build anything meaningful in 18 months. Real infrastructure takes at least 3–5 years. Real product-market fit requires iteration over years, not quarters.”\n\nThat said, I actually think those timelines are compressing.\n\nInfra can now be built in 1–2 years, and PMF can happen in weeks or months for strong applications.\n\nWe just need more original ideas - not the 75th prediction market.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1457278696931405828","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1984987750647333350","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-06","value":0,"startTime":1762300800000,"endTime":1762387200000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-07","value":4,"startTime":1762387200000,"endTime":1762473600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,134],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"768929915844513792","name":"Jamesin Seidel","screen_name":"seidtweets","indices":[123,134]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1986437434213544227","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/XjktPxYNjP","expanded":"https://twitter.com/viraj__acharya/status/1986437434213544227","display":"x.com/viraj__acharya…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986494295663386907","view_count":4971,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762452122000,"favorite_count":9,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986494295663386907","full_text":"Jamesin killed it as always.\n\nThe best venture firms earn the right to be “partners” & not just investors. \n\nWell done @seidtweets","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"44196397","name":"Elon Musk","screen_name":"elonmusk","indices":[64,73]},{"id_str":"44196397","name":"Elon Musk","screen_name":"elonmusk","indices":[64,73]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986557513740001382","view_count":3764,"bookmark_count":4,"created_at":1762467194000,"favorite_count":18,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986557513740001382","full_text":"Tesla AGM right now is all about the robots 🤖\nA few quotes from @elonmusk:\n\nOn scale:\n“Optimus is going to be the biggest product of all time. Bigger than cell phones. Bigger than anything else.”\n\nOn use cases:\n“There will be 3–5 industrial robots for every personal robot.”\n\nOn speed:\n“We’re going to launch the fastest production ramp of any large manufactured product, starting with a million-unit per year production line in Fremont.”\n\nRobots aren’t coming. They’re already here.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-08","value":35,"startTime":1762473600000,"endTime":1762560000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986839703291896042","view_count":9,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762534473000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986839703291896042","full_text":"The “hype video” startup trend will fade, just like every other form of attention arbitrage.\n\nI say that as someone who actually went to film school and loves video. But we’ve reached the point where agencies are producing hype videos for fundraising rounds just to trigger VC FOMO.\n\nVirality has never been easier to manufacture, or shorter-lived.\n\nSpending $25K on a product video might make sense from a valuation or dilution standpoint. But is that really the culture you want to build?\n\nAnd when the investors who FOMO’d into your round realize the growth story doesn’t hold up, how do you think that plays out?\n\nBuild great products. The hype video era is already getting stale.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986841507282964826","view_count":113,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1762534903000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986841507282964826","full_text":"The “hype video” startup trend will fade, just like every other form of attention arbitrage.\n\nI say that as someone who actually went to film school and loves video. But we’ve reached the point where agencies are producing hype videos for fundraising rounds just to trigger VC fomo. \n\nIt’s now part of the fundraising playbook:\n\nMake a pitch deck. Make a hype video. Go a little bit viral. Rinse and repeat.\n\nVirality has never been easier to manufacture, but it’s also never been shorter-lived.\n\nSpending $25K on a product video might make sense from a valuation or dilution standpoint. But is that really the culture you want to build?\n\nAnd when the investors who FOMO’d into your round realize the growth story doesn’t hold up, how do you think that plays out?\n\nBuild great products that solve real problems. The hype video era is already stale.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,275],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986848712908546121","view_count":18228,"bookmark_count":32,"created_at":1762536621000,"favorite_count":92,"quote_count":7,"reply_count":13,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986848712908546121","full_text":"The “hype video” startup trend will fade, just like every other form of attention arbitrage.\n\nI say that as someone who actually went to film school and loves video. But we’ve reached the point where agencies are producing hype videos for fundraising rounds just to create VC fomo. \n\nIt’s now part of the fundraising playbook:\n\nMake a pitch deck. Make a hype video. Go a little bit viral. Rinse & repeat.\n\nVirality has never been easier to manufacture, but it’s also never been shorter-lived. The investors you actually want around for the next decade can tell the difference.\n\nSpending $25K on a product video might make sense from a valuation or dilution standpoint. But is that really the culture you want to build?\n\nAnd when the investors who FOMO’d into your round realize the growth story doesn’t hold up, how do you think that plays out?\n\nBuild great products that solve real problems. The hype video era is already stale.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,215],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986892752286883962","view_count":3190,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1762547121000,"favorite_count":18,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986892752286883962","full_text":"The most important part of “staying in crypto” as an early stage investor is being completely unemotional about the markets.\n\nI feel nothing when our crypto book swings 20–30%.\n\nMaybe that’s unhealthy. But it works.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-09","value":203,"startTime":1762560000000,"endTime":1762646400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,234],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"787810160513200129","name":"Chapter One","screen_name":"chapterone","indices":[50,61]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986969884362940562","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762565511000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986969884362940562","full_text":"Yesterday we locked in two deals that will define @chapterone’s next chapter.\n\nOne: an incubation with a major IP partner (a year in the making).\n\nTwo: a product we’ll launch publicly soon with a major tech platform. \n\nAlways cooking.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,239],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"787810160513200129","name":"Chapter One","screen_name":"chapterone","indices":[50,61]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986970650532327456","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762565693000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986970650532327456","full_text":"Yesterday we locked in two deals that will define @chapterone’s next chapter.\n\nOne: an incubation with a major IP partner (a year in the making).\n\nTwo: a product we’ll launch publicly soon with a well known tech platform. \n\nAlways cooking.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,232],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"787810160513200129","name":"Chapter One","screen_name":"chapterone","indices":[50,61]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986970741779407185","view_count":6055,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1762565715000,"favorite_count":48,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986970741779407185","full_text":"Yesterday we locked in two deals that will define @chapterone’s next chapter.\n\nOne: an incubation with a major IP partner (a year in the making).\n\nTwo: a product we’ll launch publicly soon with a big tech platform. \n\nAlways cooking.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,281],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987236350836494777","view_count":164696,"bookmark_count":200,"created_at":1762629041000,"favorite_count":476,"quote_count":11,"reply_count":30,"retweet_count":21,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1987236350836494777","full_text":"Startup beef is always funny.\n\nYears ago, I worked at a marketplace & we decided Craigslist was our enemy. We built narratives around “beating” them, studied their every move, and even shaped internal goals around taking their users. I’m pretty sure they never thought about us once.\n\nLater, we shifted our obsession to TaskRabbit. Remember Taskrabbit? We spent so much energy trying to outdo them w/ pricing wars, feature debates, endless comparisons. But in the end, neither of us became a breakout, venture-scale success.\n\nThe real competitors were the ones playing a much bigger game: DoorDash, Instacart, Uber. We knew those founders personally, hung out with them at the same SF parties, but never saw them as direct competition. Turns out, they were just playing a different sport entirely.\n\nI see the same thing today in AI and crypto. Startups beefing over tiny overlaps, chasing small wins. Before you pick a fight, make sure you’re actually in a market worth winning. \n\nOtherwise, you’ll wake up every morning obsessed with a game that doesn’t matter.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,54],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"954060455831580672","name":"Molly O’Shea","screen_name":"MollySOShea","indices":[0,12]},{"id_str":"768929915844513792","name":"Jamesin Seidel","screen_name":"seidtweets","indices":[21,32]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"MollySOShea","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987168354260689078","view_count":85,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762612830000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986824069094822264","full_text":"@MollySOShea Talk to @seidtweets - she will have ideas","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"954060455831580672","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1986824069094822264","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,107],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"21706010","name":"Daniel Pearson","screen_name":"danielpearson","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"danielpearson","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987239060021387360","view_count":5021,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762629687000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1987236350836494777","full_text":"@danielpearson Love that Peter Thiel quote and very true.\n\nIf only we had venture funds at that point haha.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"21706010","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987237809229599115","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-10","value":0,"startTime":1762646400000,"endTime":1762732800000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-11","value":0,"startTime":1762732800000,"endTime":1762819200000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-12","value":0,"startTime":1762819200000,"endTime":1762905600000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-13","value":0,"startTime":1762905600000,"endTime":1762992000000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-14","value":126,"startTime":1762992000000,"endTime":1763078400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"4188045073","name":"Jordi Hays","screen_name":"jordihays","indices":[828,838]},{"id_str":"30736937","name":"John Coogan","screen_name":"johncoogan","indices":[841,852]},{"id_str":"1838288550569349120","name":"TBPN","screen_name":"tbpn","indices":[856,861]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988981359013163127","view_count":63,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763045084000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988981359013163127","full_text":"Venture Capital Musical Chairs\n\nWhen I first got into venture capital, I assumed that General Partners stayed at firms for most of their careers. From the outside, venture capital shops looked like stable institutions. At the very least, they felt more permanent than the startups they backed.\n\nThat assumption was dead wrong.\n\nBack then, I was at Tinder and a scout for Index Ventures. It was an awesome experience, but I definitely underestimated how turbulent things can be inside other venture firms I was co-investing with and getting to know more closely.\n\nThat turbulence has only accelerated in the last few years. Every week, I see partners leaving, firms reshaping their strategies, and LP relationships shifting. \n\nIt feels like watching ESPN at this point waiting for Shams to break some trade news. Luckily we have @jordihays & @johncoogan at @tbpn.\n\nFor founders, venture capital musical chairs feels like something happening on the other side of the table. You sense the industry shifting, but you’re busy building your company. Whatever chaos is unfolding inside venture firms isn’t exactly top of mind.\n\nBut you should be thinking about it a lot more. And here's why. \n\nWhen you raise from a venture firm, you don’t really raise from the firm. You raise from a specific partner. You take their calls, you trust their judgment, and you build your relationship around them. They’re the one who sits on your board, texts you late at night, and ideally, fights for you when things get tough. \n\nWhen they leave, you lose that advocate. Suddenly, the person who cared most about your survival inside the partnership is gone.\n\nIn today’s venture world, that partner may not even be around by the time your next fundraise rolls around. \n\nI was talking to a former partner at a multi-stage fund yesterday, and she told me that the average partner at a venture firm sticks around for 7 years. And when they leave, the implications for you are important to understand.\n\nWhat often happens next is that you become an “adopted company.” Other partners don’t rush to claim you, because supporting you doesn’t count toward their scoreboard. Venture is a business built on attribution, and if they didn’t source or lead your deal, the incentive to spend time helping you is low. You end up feeling like the kid at the dinner table nobody wants to introduce.\n\nBoard dynamics only make the problem worse. If your original partner leaves, their seat might be reassigned to someone who barely knows your business, or worse, someone who doesn’t care to. \n\nNow you’re wasting cycles re-educating a new person who has little emotional or financial attachment to your success. Instead of focusing on building, you’re back at square one, explaining the basics to someone who isn’t invested in your story.\n\nAnd then there’s the signaling risk. Other investors notice when your champion departs their firm. LPs notice too. Even if your company is performing well, your life will change.\n\n“Is the firm still supporting you?” You’ll get asked this question dozens of times by other investors, potential hires, and media. You can explain this pretty easily, but it’s just one of those annoying questions that you’ll have to talk about for many years to come.\n\nThis isn’t meant to be morbid. It’s a reminder to choose your partners carefully and understand their career trajectory and standing inside the firm.\n\nFundraising is chaotic right now. Bubble or not, founders and investors are speed-dating their way into big rounds, and everyone’s expected to build trust on a timeline that would be insane in any normal business relationship.\n\nMy best advice is don’t assume the partner you pick will be there forever. Get to know the rest of the partnership, understand how they think, and make sure you actually believe in the firm’s culture and ethos.\n\nA friend put it well yesterday: the only person who’s almost certainly sticking around is the founder of the firm. That’s the longest term partner you're getting into business with. You may not get much access to the founder(s) of a firm, but it’s still worth knowing their story, their reputation, and how they’ve shown up for founders over time.\n\nIf your deal sponsor is gone in a few years, would you still be proud to call that firm your investor? \n\nIf the answer is yes, great, but make sure you’re diligencing them as hard as they’re diligencing you.\n\nVenture Capital Musical Chairs isn’t stopping anytime soon. If anything, it will get much spicier as we understand which partners took massive AI swings that will generate many billions for their firms, or leave their firms holding the bag.\n\nIn either case, your partner still might leave. \n\nInvestors who crushed this AI wave might use that momentum to spin out and start their own firms. And the ones who didn’t get big wins in this cycle might be looking for new jobs soon for reasons we all understand.\n\nAs a founder, choose your partners carefully and make damn sure you’re not the last one left standing when the music stops. \n\nFin.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"4188045073","name":"Jordi Hays","screen_name":"jordihays","indices":[859,869]},{"id_str":"30736937","name":"John Coogan","screen_name":"johncoogan","indices":[872,883]},{"id_str":"1838288550569349120","name":"TBPN","screen_name":"tbpn","indices":[887,892]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988983199872004228","view_count":66136,"bookmark_count":126,"created_at":1763045523000,"favorite_count":165,"quote_count":6,"reply_count":19,"retweet_count":23,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"Venture Capital Musical Chairs (And Why Founders Should Care)\n\nWhen I first got into venture capital, I assumed that General Partners stayed at firms for most of their careers. From the outside, venture capital shops looked like stable institutions. At the very least, they felt more permanent than the startups they backed.\n\nThat assumption was dead wrong.\n\nBack then, I was at Tinder and a scout for Index Ventures. It was an awesome experience, but I definitely underestimated how turbulent things can be inside other venture firms I was co-investing with and getting to know more closely.\n\nThat turbulence has only accelerated in the last few years. Every week, I see partners leaving, firms reshaping their strategies, and LP relationships shifting. \n\nIt feels like watching ESPN at this point waiting for Shams to break some trade news. Luckily we have @jordihays & @johncoogan at @tbpn.\n\nFor founders, venture capital musical chairs feels like something happening on the other side of the table. You sense the industry shifting, but you’re busy building your company. Whatever chaos is unfolding inside venture firms isn’t exactly top of mind.\n\nBut you should be thinking about it a lot more. And here's why. \n\nWhen you raise from a venture firm, you don’t really raise from the firm. You raise from a specific partner. You take their calls, you trust their judgment, and you build your relationship around them. They’re the one who sits on your board, texts you late at night, and ideally, fights for you when things get tough. \n\nWhen they leave, you lose that advocate. Suddenly, the person who cared most about your survival inside the partnership is gone.\n\nIn today’s venture world, that partner may not even be around by the time your next fundraise rolls around. \n\nI was talking to a former partner at a multi-stage fund yesterday, and she told me that the average partner at a venture firm sticks around for 7 years. And when they leave, the implications for you are important to understand.\n\nWhat often happens next is that you become an “adopted company.” Other partners don’t rush to claim you, because supporting you doesn’t count toward their scoreboard. Venture is a business built on attribution, and if they didn’t source or lead your deal, the incentive to spend time helping you is low.\n\nBoard dynamics only make the problem worse. If your original partner leaves, their seat might be reassigned to someone who barely knows your business, or worse, someone who doesn’t care to. \n\nNow you’re wasting cycles re-educating a new person who has little emotional or financial attachment to your success. Instead of focusing on building, you’re back at square one, explaining the basics to someone who isn’t invested in your story.\n\nAnd then there’s the signaling risk. Other investors notice when your champion departs their firm. LPs notice too. Even if your company is performing well, your life will change.\n\n“Is the firm still supporting you?” You’ll get asked this question dozens of times by other investors, potential hires, and media. You can explain this pretty easily, but it’s just one of those annoying questions that you’ll have to talk about for many years to come.\n\nThis isn’t meant to be morbid. It’s a reminder to choose your partners carefully and understand their career trajectory and standing inside the firm.\n\nFundraising is chaotic right now. Bubble or not, founders and investors are speed-dating their way into big rounds, and everyone’s expected to build trust on a timeline that would be insane in any normal business relationship.\n\nMy best advice is don’t assume the partner you pick will be there forever. Get to know the rest of the partnership, understand how they think, and make sure you actually believe in the firm’s culture and ethos.\n\nA friend put it well yesterday: the only person who’s almost certainly sticking around is the founder of the firm. That’s the longest term partner you're getting into business with. You may not get much access to the founder(s) of a firm, but it’s still worth knowing their story, their reputation, and how they’ve shown up for founders over time.\n\nVenture Capital Musical Chairs isn’t stopping anytime soon. If anything, it will get much spicier as we understand which partners took massive AI swings that will generate many billions for their firms, or leave their firms holding the bag.\n\nIn either case, your partner still might leave. \n\nInvestors who crushed this AI wave might use that momentum to spin out and start their own firms. And the ones who didn’t get big wins in this cycle might be looking for new jobs soon for reasons we all understand.\n\nAs a founder, choose your partners carefully and make damn sure you’re not the last one left standing when the music stops. \n\nFin.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,75],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"35647451","name":"Turner Novak 🍌🧢","screen_name":"TurnerNovak","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"TurnerNovak","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988990321540399109","view_count":1308,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763047220000,"favorite_count":4,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"@TurnerNovak Very effective Sparknotes version - I need you to be my editor","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"35647451","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1988989896195756499","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-15","value":85,"startTime":1763078400000,"endTime":1763164800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,87],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1989156238018683215","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/Ssm5bH6JtM","expanded":"https://twitter.com/rohanpaul_ai/status/1989156238018683215","display":"x.com/rohanpaul_ai/s…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989213951863955480","view_count":2628,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1763100538000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989213951863955480","full_text":"Solana FDV: $80B (feels cheap)\nA 1-year-old AI startup: $50B\n\nWelcome to pure-vibes VC.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,121],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rsKQuQih8o","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1989184813312680086/photo/1","id_str":"1989184305332174848","indices":[122,145],"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5sAligbQAAxQo3.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rsKQuQih8o","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":977,"y":403,"h":520,"w":520},{"x":1347,"y":59,"h":635,"w":635},{"x":507,"y":376,"h":589,"w":589}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":572,"y":236,"h":304,"w":304},{"x":789,"y":35,"h":372,"w":372},{"x":297,"y":220,"h":345,"w":345}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":324,"y":134,"h":172,"w":172},{"x":447,"y":19,"h":211,"w":211},{"x":168,"y":124,"h":195,"w":195}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":1833,"y":757,"h":975,"w":975},{"x":2527,"y":112,"h":1192,"w":1192},{"x":952,"y":705,"h":1106,"w":1106}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1152,"w":2048,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":675,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":2160,"width":3840,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":10,"w":3840,"h":2150},{"x":552,"y":0,"w":2160,"h":2160},{"x":685,"y":0,"w":1895,"h":2160},{"x":1092,"y":0,"w":1080,"h":2160},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":3840,"h":2160}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[{"display_url":"x.com/OpenAI/status/…","expanded_url":"https://x.com/OpenAI/status/1989138776585851038","url":"https://t.co/5gFtHQYNiu","indices":[98,121]}],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rsKQuQih8o","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1989184813312680086/photo/1","id_str":"1989184305332174848","indices":[122,145],"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5sAligbQAAxQo3.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rsKQuQih8o","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":977,"y":403,"h":520,"w":520},{"x":1347,"y":59,"h":635,"w":635},{"x":507,"y":376,"h":589,"w":589}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":572,"y":236,"h":304,"w":304},{"x":789,"y":35,"h":372,"w":372},{"x":297,"y":220,"h":345,"w":345}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":324,"y":134,"h":172,"w":172},{"x":447,"y":19,"h":211,"w":211},{"x":168,"y":124,"h":195,"w":195}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":1833,"y":757,"h":975,"w":975},{"x":2527,"y":112,"h":1192,"w":1192},{"x":952,"y":705,"h":1106,"w":1106}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1152,"w":2048,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":675,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":2160,"width":3840,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":10,"w":3840,"h":2150},{"x":552,"y":0,"w":2160,"h":2160},{"x":685,"y":0,"w":1895,"h":2160},{"x":1092,"y":0,"w":1080,"h":2160},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":3840,"h":2160}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"quoted_status_id_str":"1983834443648278593","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/t56Kl9NM7f","expanded":"https://twitter.com/jmj/status/1983834443648278593","display":"x.com/jmj/status/198…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989184813312680086","view_count":19239,"bookmark_count":23,"created_at":1763093591000,"favorite_count":52,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989184813312680086","full_text":"ChatGPT now has group chats.\n\nCongrats to the newest social network on the internet. Case closed.\nhttps://t.co/5gFtHQYNiu https://t.co/rsKQuQih8o","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,282],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989423657438121993","view_count":21867,"bookmark_count":60,"created_at":1763150536000,"favorite_count":102,"quote_count":5,"reply_count":24,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"Vibe Investing Is the New Vibe Coding\n\nThe institutional memory of what happened in 2020–2022 is basically gone. It’s wild how quickly we as an industry forgot.\n\nI have a theory that our brains now process trauma & even financial bubbles in smaller and smaller increments. We’re living through the compression of emotional memory. Our tech industry systems take in stimuli that are too frequent, too loud, and too fast, so nothing sticks. \n\nI dug into my theory more (which you’ve likely felt intuitively but maybe haven’t articulated) and it turns out there’s actually a concept called “emotional amnesia\" which is a feeling numb or disconnected about what is happening around you.\n\nI won’t bore you with the academic details, but my takeaway as applied to venture capital is that the half-life on lessons learned (and in most businesses) is collapsing at the same pace you scroll a TikTok feed. We breeze past a $3B seed round at a $30B valuation like it’s a TMZ clip. \n\nAs a first-time manager who launched a fund in 2019, the 2020–2022 bubble left a permanent imprint on me. I’ll never forget what that period felt like. \n\nThe velocity, FOMO & the total detachment from fundamentals was intoxicating for everyone. Your seed check jumps from a $10M post to a $150M post in 30 days. Congrats… I guess? Because now you have to decide whether to follow on. And it’s a tier-one lead. What do you do?\n\nThat environment pushed every firm, including the great ones, into some objectively terrible decisions.\n\nAnd when I look at venture today, the industry barely resembles what it was even six years ago. We used to joke about “vibe investing” as the exception. The charismatic founder with cult-leader energy, the weird but magnetic pitch, the occasional “let’s take a flyer and see what happens.” Now it’s the norm. \n\nAura and an AI narrative = 10 term sheets.\n\nThere are insanely talented, credible operators building world-changing companies. But a $50B valuation for a pre-product seed round? Is that even venture capital? Call it whatever you want (and honestly we probably need a new category name) because it’s a completely different industry at this point.\n\nThe biggest takeaway is that at almost every stage from seed, growth, crossover, even public markets, we’re operating on vibes. Maybe I’m slowly becoming a boomer for even saying this.\n\nBut it's narrative over numbers, momentum over diligence, social proof over actual proof.\n\nCritics dunk on “vibe coding” as a Gen Z builder phenomenon that creates technical slop, but venture capital has built its own version: vibe investing.\n\nDrop a pitch deck into ChatGPT, run a Deep Research query, and boom “I don’t even need analysts anymore!” You skim the output in five minutes between pitch calls and try to stitch together a market thesis. Meanwhile the founder is a fundraising machine and every other firm is running the exact same Deep Research report you are.\n\nYou better move fast.\n\nSo you hop into Granola, grab one smart-sounding insight from your call, and paste it into Slack like you discovered fire. Your partners light up. Then you mention the founder already has multiple term sheets and suddenly everyone’s ready to clear their calendars.\n\nWe won’t know what turns into investment slop for a few years, but vibe-driven deals are definitely going to push that percentage way up. \n\nMaybe that’s fine & maybe this time really is different, and the outliers will paper over all the vibe-investing slop. But if you’re an emerging manager or running a concentrated portfolio, that’s a dangerous way to live. You don’t get to spray-and-pray your way out of vibes.\n\nRight now the vibes are insanely strong. It’s exciting. I feel just as fired up as everyone else and that energy is exactly why venture and technology keep marching forward.\n\nBut if I had one message today it would be this. \n\nGOOD LUCK AVOIDING THE SLOP.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,14],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"25232333","name":"Pat McGovern","screen_name":"pw_mcgovern","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"pw_mcgovern","lang":"qme","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989437186396332277","view_count":90,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763153761000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@pw_mcgovern 🔥","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"25232333","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989435465892606039","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,47],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"180030016","name":"davidfeiock","screen_name":"davidfeiock","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"davidfeiock","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989439081856864670","view_count":95,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763154213000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@davidfeiock Doing my best to please the people","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"180030016","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989438684970840404","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[16,33],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"90144647","name":"Viraj Acharya","screen_name":"Viraj__Acharya","indices":[0,15]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Viraj__Acharya","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989474730047672821","view_count":55,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763162712000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@Viraj__Acharya Haha yes happy to","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"90144647","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989469687676350678","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,283],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"729253848787738624","name":"george beall","screen_name":"GeorgePBeall","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"GeorgePBeall","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989425758935363750","view_count":254,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763151037000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@GeorgePBeall There will be a mean reversion as DPI gets realized. There is a category land grab right now, and the opportunity is massive, so capital is piling in. Long-term bullish on AI, but at some point, early stage investors will need to get back to some version of discipline.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"729253848787738624","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989425239139520664","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,292],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"13955342","name":"Trace Vertical Ai Cohen","screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989438237971300635","view_count":292,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1763154012000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"Agreed. I think the biggest mistake people will make is not knowing what game they're playing. An emerging manager with a smaller fund trying to execute on the multi-stage strategy is problematic. You have windows of opportunity where you can do things that are outside your core strategy, and putting guard rails on that bucket is hugely important. It's also really easy to let the guard rails down.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"13955342","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989437434082595107","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[11,103],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"192784466","name":"Jeff Richards","screen_name":"jrichlive","indices":[0,10]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"jrichlive","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989351865327472987","view_count":302,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763133419000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"@jrichlive Wild - will check back on this tweet in a few years so you can tell me about the 4th and 5th","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"192784466","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989350740587077902","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,37],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1449604717038825477","name":"Lucas Dickey","screen_name":"LucasDickey4","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"LucasDickey4","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989169728783524119","view_count":446,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763089994000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"@LucasDickey4 This is a great summary","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1449604717038825477","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989167000841777461","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-16","value":0,"startTime":1763164800000,"endTime":1763251200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[16,77],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1950463458648150016","name":"Stanley Wei","screen_name":"StanleyWei4748","indices":[0,15]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"StanleyWei4748","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989713118495490161","view_count":27,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763219549000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@StanleyWei4748 They were supposed to be the roaring 20s and we got this haha","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1950463458648150016","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989711120332910993","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[7,282],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"6874252","name":"Indus Khaitan","screen_name":"1ndus","indices":[0,6]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"1ndus","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989565798088937553","view_count":64,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763184425000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"There are great firms with more than four to five partners. I would just figure out who you're getting into business with and what that partners is standing at the firm. How long have they been there? Have they made any great investments yet? What's their career history look like? Are they someone who will bounce around a lot? Etc.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"6874252","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989558109883519352","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-17","value":0,"startTime":1763251200000,"endTime":1763337600000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-18","value":50,"startTime":1763337600000,"endTime":1763424000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,279],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990480739989868627","view_count":1894,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1763402564000,"favorite_count":16,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990480739989868627","full_text":"When vibe coding started getting popular, some people said, “we won’t need designers anymore, you can just design things yourself.” \n\nThe opposite happened.\n\nI talked to a well respected designer friend today who said freelance rates are climbing, and hiring a full-time designer in the U.S. now starts at $150K.\n\nHe shared a framing I liked:\n\n\"Teams understand the models are going to make everyone 7/10 designers. Which does eliminate the need for low end of the market. But if you can help someone ship 9 or 10/10 design you’ve never been more valuable because it’s now one of the core means of differentiation.\"\n\nAI made bad design easier. It made great design harder & more expensive.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,279],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990491897375436825","view_count":16659,"bookmark_count":48,"created_at":1763405224000,"favorite_count":101,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":16,"retweet_count":9,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990491897375436825","full_text":"When vibe coding started getting popular, some people said, “we won’t need designers anymore, you can just design things yourself.” \n\nThe opposite happened.\n\nI talked to a well respected designer friend today who said freelance design rates are getting more expensive, and hiring a full-time designer in the U.S. now starts at $150K.\n\nHe shared a framing I liked:\n\n\"Teams understand the models are going to make everyone 7/10 designers. Which does eliminate the need for low end of the market. But if you can help someone ship 9 or 10/10 design you’ve never been more valuable because it’s now one of the core means of differentiation.\"\n\nAI made bad design easier. It also made great design harder & more expensive.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-19","value":130,"startTime":1763424000000,"endTime":1763510400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,146],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/CzdN0xANyq","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1990572770015809922/photo/1","id_str":"1990571616619933696","indices":[147,170],"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5_uVrybMAAQ8U6.png","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/CzdN0xANyq","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":609,"width":568,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":318},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":568},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":534,"h":609},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":305,"h":609},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":609}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/CzdN0xANyq","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1990572770015809922/photo/1","id_str":"1990571616619933696","indices":[147,170],"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5_uVrybMAAQ8U6.png","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/CzdN0xANyq","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":609,"width":568,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":318},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":568},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":534,"h":609},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":305,"h":609},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":609}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990572770015809922","view_count":5620,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1763424506000,"favorite_count":27,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990572770015809922","full_text":"LP inbox right now: a flood of GPs explaining why they didn’t see the Bezos AI deal.\n\n\"Our sourcing engine is being rebuilt from first principles\" https://t.co/CzdN0xANyq","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1990841773799682300","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/ivg0YeXKEN","expanded":"https://twitter.com/yrechtman/status/1990841773799682300","display":"x.com/yrechtman/stat…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990855280654233609","view_count":23462,"bookmark_count":70,"created_at":1763491861000,"favorite_count":79,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":7,"retweet_count":4,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990855280654233609","full_text":"One question that every seed investor should be asking themselves right now is whether they should be focusing more on early traction rounds, as opposed to pre-product investing. \n\nIn the past couple months, we've met a few teams raising rounds at $30M-$40M post-valuation who have real traction ($1-$4m ARR). \n\nAs a seed investor, would you rather invest in one of these rounds at $40m post or a pre-product seed round that calls itself an AI company at a $20M-$30M post? They're basically priced the same. \n\nSome of the early tractions teams call these rounds \"seed extensions,\" and others stretch it to a Series A label. \n\nFor whatever reason, they haven't been treated as \"hot companies\" by the Series A market, but they're building very solid businesses that are growing well. \n\nI haven't come up with an exact terminology for these companies. They're generally not pure-play AI deals, but are often utilizing AI in interesting ways. The headline on the deck doesn't read AI deal, but they're real businesses. \n\nFor the sake of this essay, let's just call them \"AI tweeners\". \n\nThere is a temptation to invest in what is new (ie the brand new AI company raising at $20-$30m post) because you're investing in a cool story & get to help bring a new company to market & call yourself the lead. \n\nBut maybe the $40m \"AI tweener\" is a better bet. By paying a slight premium, you invest in a company that's figured a lot out, has revenue, and is building in a category that likely has less competition. \n\nThe challenge with investing in the $40M post is that you likely called yourself a seed firm to all of your limited partners, so your entry price is going to look like what has historically been called a Series A. Is this strategy drift, or is it being a good investor? \n\nIf your goal is to build the highest performing portfolio, investing in \"AI tweeners\" is the part of market that is likely most undervalued right now. \n\nSo maybe you should stop calling yourself a seed fund & invest in early traction companies while the rest of the market is obsessed with finding the next hot pre-product seed deal. \n\nJust some thoughts.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"3393185261","name":"yoni rechtman","screen_name":"yrechtman","indices":[2202,2212]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990857909635518465","view_count":9799,"bookmark_count":47,"created_at":1763492488000,"favorite_count":73,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":8,"retweet_count":5,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990857909635518465","full_text":"One question that every seed investor should be asking themselves right now is whether they should be focusing more on early traction rounds, as opposed to pre-product investing. \n\nIn the past couple months, we've met a few teams raising rounds at $30M-$40M post-valuation who have real traction ($1-$4m ARR). \n\nAs a seed investor, would you rather invest in one of these rounds at $40m post or a pre-product seed round that calls itself an AI company at a $20M-$30M post? They're basically priced the same. \n\nSome of the early tractions teams call these rounds \"seed extensions,\" and others stretch it to a Series A label. \n\nFor whatever reason, they haven't been treated as \"hot companies\" by the Series A market, but they're building very solid businesses that are growing well. \n\nI haven't come up with an exact terminology for these companies. They're generally not pure-play AI deals, but are often utilizing AI in interesting ways. The headline on the deck doesn't read AI deal, but they're real businesses. \n\nFor the sake of this essay, let's just call them \"AI tweeners\". \n\nThere is a temptation to invest in what is new (ie the brand new AI company raising at $20-$30m post) because you're investing in a cool story & get to help bring a new company to market & call yourself the lead. \n\nBut maybe the $40m \"AI tweener\" is a better bet. By paying a slight premium, you invest in a company that's figured a lot out, has revenue, and is building in a category that likely has less competition. \n\nThe challenge with investing in the $40M post is that you likely called yourself a seed firm to all of your limited partners, so your entry price is going to look like what has historically been called a Series A. Is this strategy drift, or is it being a good investor? \n\nIf your goal is to build the highest performing portfolio, investing in \"AI tweeners\" is the part of market that is likely most undervalued right now. \n\nSo maybe you should stop calling yourself a seed fund & invest in early traction companies while the rest of the market is obsessed with finding the next hot pre-product seed deal. \n\nJust some thoughts.\n\nOriginally written as a response to a tweet by @yrechtman, but creating a separate essay so more people can hopefully read it.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990865081354334636","view_count":7759,"bookmark_count":10,"created_at":1763494198000,"favorite_count":68,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":17,"retweet_count":4,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990865081354334636","full_text":"I am noticing a lot of apathy and despair in the crypto community right now. This is funny to me because we should all be basking in the opportunity to actually build valuable applications and companies right now.\n\nOne of the most common complaints in prior cycles was that crypto founders didn't have a fighting chance to run the experiments that they wanted to test due to regulatory battles. \n\nIn the United States, we have a very supportive regulatory environment right now, and it is possible to be a U.S. crypto founder in categories like Defi which were previously very dicey. \n\nBut for some reason, the mood amongst founders and investors is especially solemn right now.\n\nMy take is that building products and companies that people care about is incredibly hard, especially with AI dominating the headlines. \n\nIt was easy to use regulatory constraints as an excuse in prior cycles, and now that we no longer have that issue, we have to actually go build products that people use every day & care about. \n\nAnd these products can't be another L1/L2 or some abstract technical infrastructure that increases TPS or makes blockchains cheaper. We already have that. \n\nInfra was a convenient area for investors and founders to fund and build because you could TGE and get rich & punt on building applications. \n\nBut today, you have to go build applications that people care about. That's really it. There's almost nothing else to do on the infrastructure side to run the experiments that will validate how big crypto can be. \n\nThe industry needs to stop feeling sorry for itself and go prove that the many, many billions of dollars that have gone to the industry were building towards something meaningful. Stablecoins, payments, etc. are all obvious places to build real consumer value. \n\nNow is the time.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-20","value":0,"startTime":1763510400000,"endTime":1763596800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,228],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1915059354153160706","name":"moneydevkit","screen_name":"money_dev_kit","indices":[42,56]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1991151978953789614","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/EAfA4urbR2","expanded":"https://twitter.com/nickslaney/status/1991151978953789614","display":"x.com/nickslaney/sta…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1991154186755674513","view_count":171,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763563126000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1991154186755674513","full_text":"We’re thrilled to lead the seed round for @money_dev_kit. \n\nThey broke a world record today on the same day they announced the fundraise.\n\nNow the fastest way for anyone on earth to add payments. Builders are going to love this.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-21","value":0,"startTime":1763596800000,"endTime":1763683200000,"tweets":[]}],"nretweets":[{"label":"2025-10-22","value":3469,"startTime":1761004800000,"endTime":1761091200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":true,"display_text_range":[0,270],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rPx7ztdMGQ","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1980504752829132945/photo/1","id_str":"1980501236362153984","indices":[271,294],"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G3wnYZ6WkAAmnCh.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rPx7ztdMGQ","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":12,"y":110,"h":30,"w":30}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":422,"width":750,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":420},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":422,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":370,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":211,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":422}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rPx7ztdMGQ","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1980504752829132945/photo/1","id_str":"1980501236362153984","indices":[271,294],"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G3wnYZ6WkAAmnCh.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rPx7ztdMGQ","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":12,"y":110,"h":30,"w":30}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":422,"width":750,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":420},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":422,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":370,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":211,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":422}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980504752829132945","view_count":1096466,"bookmark_count":2205,"created_at":1761024103000,"favorite_count":28909,"quote_count":298,"reply_count":660,"retweet_count":3461,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"Everyone talks about AI slop. \nNo one talks about PE (private equity) slop.\n\n- restaurants that lost their soul\n- medical practices that feel like assembly lines\n- apartment buildings designed by an Excel formula\n\nThe algorithm didn’t kill culture. The margin model did. https://t.co/rPx7ztdMGQ","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,60],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"932630991298007041","name":"litquidity","screen_name":"litcapital","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"litcapital","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980648813561008268","view_count":24455,"bookmark_count":5,"created_at":1761058450000,"favorite_count":227,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@litcapital haha that’s what I’m saying, impossible to unsee","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"932630991298007041","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980647342371213594","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,51],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1301314271989518336","name":"illiquid","screen_name":"lefttailguy","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"lefttailguy","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980629841155330197","view_count":19708,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761053927000,"favorite_count":277,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@lefttailguy artisanal content, thank you very much","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1301314271989518336","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980628461417804114","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,161],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"156765498","name":"Michael Williams","screen_name":"mxwilliams","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"mxwilliams","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980633611884970415","view_count":14727,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761054826000,"favorite_count":149,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":16,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@mxwilliams maybe they would, most ppl hate going to the dentist for a variety of reasons.\n\n5% feels for a better experience is something ppl would prob pay for.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"156765498","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980632925075894309","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,134],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"14117767","name":"Jonas 🦩","screen_name":"jonaslamis","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"jonaslamis","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980506004510085379","view_count":17431,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761024402000,"favorite_count":126,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@jonaslamis You might be right. Maybe AI slop is just the tipping point that’s making us realize how sloppy the world has always been.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"14117767","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980505576590447033","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[17,63],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1081596786073128960","name":"Old white guy","screen_name":"obrecht_michael","indices":[0,16]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"obrecht_michael","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980676318359666791","view_count":11003,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1761065008000,"favorite_count":129,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@obrecht_michael thanks for sharing, not an easy thing to solve","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1081596786073128960","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980674670094373173","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-23","value":24,"startTime":1761091200000,"endTime":1761177600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,281],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981026514079805470","view_count":25016,"bookmark_count":69,"created_at":1761148501000,"favorite_count":210,"quote_count":3,"reply_count":26,"retweet_count":24,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981026514079805470","full_text":"There is a very big difference between running a venture fund and building a venture firm. \n\nI get a lot of aspiring venture capitalists who ask me about starting their own firm, and the quick thing I tell them is that they have to love company building & operations as much as they love investing. \n\nAt the end of the day, so much of your time is spent on fundraising, recruiting, and back office. You have to really love that stuff early on (or it least be good at it) when nobody is there to help you out.\n\nIf you don’t love the non-investing stuff or have enough self-awareness to know you're not good at it, you should definitely consider joining a platform. I have friends who are amazingly talented who have decided they only want to focus on investing, and they are very happy & many make a ton of money too. \n\nEasy to run a fund. Much harder to build a firm.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,237],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"935658795098832896","name":"Ibrahim S.","screen_name":"IbrahimS15","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"IbrahimS15","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980849065622683933","view_count":122,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761106194000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980666971650945285","full_text":"@IbrahimS15 This is the single best feedback from an interviewer that I've ever seen. I know it's hard to get past the rejection and the what-ifs of the opportunity, but use this as motivation, and you will do great things. Best of luck.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"935658795098832896","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980666971650945285","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-24","value":7,"startTime":1761177600000,"endTime":1761264000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981361260852892174","view_count":56764,"bookmark_count":42,"created_at":1761228311000,"favorite_count":96,"quote_count":5,"reply_count":20,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981361260852892174","full_text":"The death of SaaS has been overstated. \n\nWhen VCs or industry analysts say that SaaS is dead, they replace the word SaaS with AI agents or some other descriptor for B2B software.\n\nHuman addiction to technology is well known in the consumer space, and the same applies for anything in the enterprise. \n\nEnterprises are addicted to software, and whether the user is human or an agent doesn't matter. At the end of the day, there will always be a top 1% of founders and companies who design their software in a superior way to their competitors, and those will be massive companies where the TAM is even bigger than what was formerly called SaaS.\n\nSoftware is here to stay (with much more powerful capabilities!), which is such an obvious thing to state yet I'm hearing otherwise from my peers.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[9,288],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"6228302","name":"Sheel Mohnot","screen_name":"pitdesi","indices":[0,8]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"pitdesi","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981402156306760016","view_count":414,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761238061000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981381724702724256","full_text":"This is very true. \n\nI think from the outside, folks who hear this mistake the evolving business model with the death of an entire category of software.\n\nOrganizations are becoming even more software-obsessed, and there is a new generation of products that are quickly displacing incumbents. \n\nSoftware is obviously becoming easier to build, but the opportunity for venture capitalists is still massive. \n\nThese things feel so obvious to type, but you'd be surprised at how many conversations I have that revolve around this very topic.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"6228302","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981381724702724256","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[23,113],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"829946137","name":"Itai | dynamic.xyz","screen_name":"turbahn","indices":[0,8]},{"id_str":"1135606000868872192","name":"Fireblocks","screen_name":"FireblocksHQ","indices":[9,22]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"turbahn","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981417837395923151","view_count":264,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761241800000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981393151530254774","full_text":"@turbahn @FireblocksHQ Congrats, have loved working with you and the team the last few years. First class always.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"829946137","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981393151530254774","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-25","value":26,"startTime":1761264000000,"endTime":1761350400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981703025946501274","view_count":70,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761309794000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981703025946501274","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else you'll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should!), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. These are some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy and pursue the deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981703548401520684","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761309918000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981703548401520684","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else you'll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should!), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. These investments will stand out in your data room so you might as well get ahead of those conversations and explain your underwriting logic. \n\nThese are also some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy & pursue the really special deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981704081166016556","view_count":57,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761310045000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981704081166016556","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else you'll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. Those investments will stand out in your data room so you might as well get ahead of those conversations and explain your underwriting logic. \n\nThese are also some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy & pursue the really special deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981709123755610507","view_count":199549,"bookmark_count":256,"created_at":1761311248000,"favorite_count":346,"quote_count":18,"reply_count":23,"retweet_count":25,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else it’ll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. Those investments will stand out in your data room so you might as well get ahead of those conversations and explain your underwriting logic. \n\nThese are also some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy & pursue the really special deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,277],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"811350","name":"Alexis Ohanian 🗽","screen_name":"alexisohanian","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"alexisohanian","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981768701885264380","view_count":4259,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761325452000,"favorite_count":24,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@alexisohanian 100% true. I find that newer managers are more risk-averse to exceptions because they don't want to get fired by their LPs. If you study the history of venture capital, many of the best firms today became franchises in critical moments when they made exceptions.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"811350","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981767253252358505","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,286],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"69619073","name":"Andrew D'Souza","screen_name":"andrewdsouza","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"andrewdsouza","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981777971267743913","view_count":1943,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761327662000,"favorite_count":15,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@andrewdsouza Most LPAs don’t have strict parameters around valuations.\n\nThey more often have definitions around:\n\n- what % of fund can go to a single investment \n\n- recycling % \n\n- deployment period \n\nMost of the time these exceptions aren’t made because GPs are scared of being wrong.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"69619073","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981777001078788107","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,220],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1945812818932170753","name":"Neo","screen_name":"neo3141111","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"neo3141111","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981736892283469930","view_count":1741,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761317868000,"favorite_count":15,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@neo3141111 You could look at a long list of hundreds of GPs who have world class track records that have invested after the pre-seed. A very easy list of people to study would be folks like Peter Thiel, Fred Wilson, etc","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1945812818932170753","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981734983279562826","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,23],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"20397708","name":"Niki Scevak","screen_name":"nikiscevak","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"nikiscevak","lang":"fr","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981860895103025450","view_count":1021,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761347433000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@nikiscevak Raise in SF","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"20397708","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981860111879672307","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,45],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"75409972","name":"Josh Porter","screen_name":"joshdotporter","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"joshdotporter","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981818015080673366","view_count":950,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761337209000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@joshdotporter ty great seeing you this week!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"75409972","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981812251968545118","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,25],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1764321378507931648","name":"Rohan","screen_name":"proxy_vector","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"proxy_vector","lang":"ca","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981757033461481979","view_count":933,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761322670000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@proxy_vector 100 percent","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1764321378507931648","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981748076227301597","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,294],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"175934436","name":"Paul Yacoubian","screen_name":"PaulYacoubian","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"PaulYacoubian","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981706003306746307","view_count":1639,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761310504000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981704081166016556","full_text":"Ha, this is a dangerous game to play because exit value is the model input that tends to be the most hand-wavy. It's really easy to change the exit value from $10B to $20B and have your entire model look like a work of art.\n\nI find that newer investors overestimate exit value on their investment proposals, and that the model assumption is normally tied to a 1x RTF (return the fund) outcome when your winners should math out to outcomes that are far greater like 3x-5x net or above. \n\nGetting the RTF model to make sense is becoming harder to build as entry prices become higher. The math just doesn't math out most of the time. So some just change that exit value to $1T and do the deal :)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"175934436","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981704634734711025","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-26","value":0,"startTime":1761350400000,"endTime":1761436800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,132],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"6781512","name":"Martin Tobias (Pre-Seed VC)","screen_name":"MartinGTobias","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"MartinGTobias","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982144968669135150","view_count":658,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761415161000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@MartinGTobias 100%. Fully believe that an 80/20 core vs. \"breaking the rules\" barbell strategy is the best for an early-stage firm.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"6781512","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1982141432950391154","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-27","value":7,"startTime":1761436800000,"endTime":1761523200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982472740914540939","view_count":880,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1761493308000,"favorite_count":7,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982472740914540939","full_text":"One of the most common questions you’ll get when fundraising for a venture fund is about sourcing. \n\nLPs are ultimately buying into your thesis and your access, so it makes sense that sourcing is one of the first questions.\n\nThe question is hard to answer because sourcing usually comes from many different channels & almost every VC believes their approach is better than their peers’.\n\nI can’t even imagine how confusing it must be for an LP who covers venture as part of a broader portfolio to figure out what’s real and what’s not. They get pitched by hundreds of managers a year, all claiming the same “proprietary deal flow” story.\n\nSo I figured I’d write a quick note on how I think about sourcing.\n\nI like to compare sourcing to multi-channel marketing. You have multiple inputs driving top of funnel, and ideally three or four strategies that create a sourcing flywheel.\n\nIt sometimes feels like LPs are searching for a single channel they can bring to their IC and say, “Look, they have a better sourcing engine.” But relying on one channel is risky. The game changes & so do relationships and competition.\n\nSourcing is never a magic bullet. Despite the debates, I don’t believe anyone has a true proprietary sourcing advantage beyond their reputation.\n\nSpeaking of proprietary networks... \n\nI met with a well-known GP recently who is now investing in a small number of funds & he asked which proprietary networks we have access to. It was a fair question, but I pushed back bc there are no truly proprietary networks in venture anymore.\n\nTake YC, for example. Founders could easily join other accelerators or raise the traditional way, but they choose YC because they trust it will get them further, faster. That trust is the differentiator.\n\nOr look at the handful of firms that have built entire franchises by backing Elon again and again - SpaceX, Tesla, The Boring Company, etc. The sourcing channel is no secret; the access is. And that access comes from relationships earned over decades.\n\nEveryone’s searching for a sourcing “hack.” The truth is, there isn’t one. The only real proprietary network in venture is your reputation. \n\nSo when LPs ask about sourcing, I try to reframe the question. It’s not where we find companies but it’s why the best founders choose to work with us once they’re found. \n\nThat’s the real edge, and it’s built over years, not through a single channel or campaign.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982476724895113555","view_count":17942,"bookmark_count":127,"created_at":1761494258000,"favorite_count":147,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":8,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982476724895113555","full_text":"One of the most common questions you’ll get when fundraising for a venture fund is about sourcing. \n\nLPs are ultimately buying into your thesis and your access, so it makes sense that sourcing is one of the first questions.\n\nThe question is hard to answer because sourcing usually comes from many different channels & almost every VC believes their approach is better than their peers’.\n\nI can’t even imagine how confusing it must be for an LP who covers venture as part of a broader portfolio to figure out what’s real and what’s not. They get pitched by hundreds of managers a year, all claiming the same “proprietary deal flow” story.\n\nSo I figured I’d write a quick note on how I think about sourcing.\n\nI like to compare sourcing to multi-channel marketing. You have multiple inputs driving top of funnel, and ideally three or four strategies that create a sourcing flywheel.\n\nIt sometimes feels like LPs are searching for a single channel they can bring to their IC and say, “Look, they have a better sourcing engine.” But relying on one channel is risky. The game changes & so do relationships and competition.\n\nSourcing is never a magic bullet. Despite the debates, I don’t believe anyone has a true proprietary sourcing advantage beyond their reputation.\n\nSpeaking of proprietary networks... \n\nI met with a well-known GP recently who is now investing in a small number of funds & he asked which proprietary networks we have access to. It was a fair question, but I pushed back bc there are no truly proprietary networks in venture anymore.\n\nTake YC. Founders could easily join other accelerators or raise the traditional way, but they choose YC because they trust it will get them further, faster. YC doesn’t have a proprietary network - it has a brand that founders want to be associated with. They trust YC to be the best Day 1 partner to help them build something valuable.\n\nWhat’s even more interesting is what happens after YC. Because it’s such an efficient marketplace, every venture firm has access to the same company list - it’s one of the most transparent markets in venture. We all know each batch will include a handful of outliers. None of that is proprietary sourcing. The real differentiation is in how firms underwrite conviction early and actually win those deals.\n\nOr look at the handful of firms that have built entire franchises by backing Elon again and again - SpaceX, Tesla, The Boring Company, etc. The sourcing channel is no secret; the access is. And that access comes from relationships earned over decades.\n\nEveryone’s searching for a sourcing “hack.” The truth is, there isn’t one. The only real proprietary network in venture is your reputation. \n\nSo when LPs ask about sourcing, I try to reframe the question. It’s not where we find companies but it’s why the best founders choose to work with us once they’re found. \n\nThat’s the real edge, and it’s built over years, not through a single channel or campaign.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-28","value":0,"startTime":1761523200000,"endTime":1761609600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,133],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982861967221240040","view_count":417,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761586107000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982861967221240040","full_text":"Every airport lounge is like:\n\n“Our menu is thoughtfully curated by award-winning chef _______” with some random I've never heard of.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982863864191713386","view_count":3987,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761586559000,"favorite_count":21,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982863864191713386","full_text":"Every airport lounge is like:\n\n“Our menu is thoughtfully curated by award-winning chef ____” with some random I've never heard of.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-29","value":0,"startTime":1761609600000,"endTime":1761696000000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-30","value":14,"startTime":1761696000000,"endTime":1761782400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983566611404521838","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761754107000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983566611404521838","full_text":"I had a funny conversation with an LP a couple weeks back where he said, \"If I hear another venture capitalist say the words 'prepared mind' again, I will go crazy.\" \n\nThere are many terms like this that get repeated in GP land, especially during AGM season when we’re all bumping into each other often: \n\n • Thesis-driven\n • Thematic \n • Research-driven\n • Prepared mind\n • First principles\n\nThe list goes on. \n\nAs a starting point, if you're an investor, you should absolutely be all these things. \n\nYour job is to develop a point of view on the world, identify a set of problems that you think will become big markets, and find the best founders to solve those problems.\n\nThe concept of a prepared mind has mostly been co-opted for fundraising purposes in venture capital, but the concept is still important to practice and understand. \n\nAt its core, a prepared mind means that you have spent enough time in a given market to know when you meet a founder who is solving the right problem at the right time.\n\nThis is literally the job of an investor, so every single venture capitalist should have a prepared mind. \n\nAnyways, enough on this topic for now. I have a meeting with an LP, and I'm going into it with a prepared mind ;)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983567542862970996","view_count":18,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761754329000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983567542862970996","full_text":"I had a funny conversation with an LP a couple weeks back where he said, \"If I hear another venture capitalist say the words 'prepared mind' again, I will go crazy.\" \n\nThere are many terms like this that get repeated in GP land, especially during AGM season when we’re all bumping into each other often: \n\n • Thesis-driven\n • Thematic \n • Research-driven\n • Prepared mind\n • First principles\n\nThe list goes on. \n\nAs a starting point, if you're an investor, you should absolutely practice all these things, but in 99% of cases this isn’t a differentiated approach. \n\nYour job is to develop a point of view on the world, identify a set of problems that you think will become big markets, and find the best founders to solve those problems.\n\nCall it whatever you want but that’s what great investors do. \n\nThe concept of a prepared mind has mostly been co-opted for fundraising purposes in venture capital, but the concept is still important to practice and understand. \n\nAt its core, a prepared mind means that you have spent enough time in a given market to know when you meet a founder who is solving the right problem at the right time.\n\nThis is literally the job of an investor, so every single venture capitalist should have a prepared mind. \n\nAnyways, enough on this topic for now. I have a meeting with an LP, and I'm going into it with a prepared mind ;)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983568035559419942","view_count":11074,"bookmark_count":34,"created_at":1761754447000,"favorite_count":83,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":10,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983568035559419942","full_text":"I had a fun conversation with an LP a couple weeks back where he said, \"If I hear another venture capitalist say the words 'prepared mind' again, I will go crazy.\" \n\nThere are many terms like this that get repeated in GP land, especially during AGM season when we’re all bumping into each other often: \n\n • Thesis-driven\n • Thematic \n • Research-driven\n • Prepared mind\n • First principles\n\nThe list goes on. \n\nAs a starting point, if you're an investor, you should absolutely practice all these things, but in 99% of cases this isn’t a differentiated approach. \n\nBut yes, your job is to develop a point of view on the world, identify a set of problems that you think will become big markets, and find the best founders to solve those problems.\n\nCall it whatever you want but that’s what great investors do. \n\nThe concept of a prepared mind has mostly been co-opted for fundraising purposes in venture capital, but it’s still important to practice and understand. \n\nAt its core, a prepared mind means that you have spent enough time in a given market to know when you meet a founder who is solving the right problem at the right time.\n\nThis is literally the job of an investor, so every single venture capitalist should have a prepared mind. \n\nAnyways, enough on this topic for now. I have a meeting with an LP, and I'm going into it with a prepared mind ;)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,295],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983615157277487153","view_count":21522,"bookmark_count":56,"created_at":1761765681000,"favorite_count":73,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":13,"retweet_count":8,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983615157277487153","full_text":"Engagement -> Retention -> Monetization used to be the funnel of building products & companies. \n\nMonetization -> Engagement -> Retention is the order that I'm seeing founders prioritize today in the AI age.\n\nI love monetization & spent 5 years of my life waking up every day trying to increase subs/a la carte purchases while leading the revenue team at the top grossing app in the world. \n\nSo you would think I'd agree that monetization is what everybody should spend their time thinking about, but the answer is far more nuanced. \n\nWe hear the words \"Vibe Revenue\" or \"Experimental Revenue\" being thrown out a lot this year in podcasts and newsletters, and those are accurate terms to describe what so much of monetization feels like today. \n\nIn prior cycles, founders had to earn the right to focus on monetization by building a great product first. \n\nA great product can be subjective - we use the words 'taste' and 'craft' a lot, but you can also measure it by looking first at engagement & then studying retention. \n\nThe problem with focusing on monetization too early is that you create a false sense of success, especially if you haven't seen renewal cycles yet. \n\nI am guessing there is a significant percentage of new companies who stare at their engagement and retention data all day long (which might be going up & to the right) & know there are deep flaws in their product. \n\nBut they lean on monetization ($0-$10m in a year!) to make it seem like they've found product-market fit with their own teams & investors. \n\nIt's a lot of fun to make money. I had the most fun ever in my operating career leading revenue teams. It can be addicting at times. \n\nBut the only reason we became the top-grossing app in the world is because we had best-in-class engagement and retention metrics for our category. We earned the right to monetize. \n\nI hope we get back to a world where everything starts with engagement and retention. Then we can talk about revenue.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,96],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1983617932791050265","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/voxOtB2akT","expanded":"https://twitter.com/spenserskates/status/1983617932791050265","display":"x.com/spenserskates/…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983637002928189443","view_count":14244,"bookmark_count":8,"created_at":1761770890000,"favorite_count":69,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":6,"retweet_count":4,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983637002928189443","full_text":"100%. The feature-vs-company blur might be the defining question of this AI cycle for investors.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-31","value":21,"startTime":1761782400000,"endTime":1761868800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,279],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1219566488325017602","name":"Supabase","screen_name":"supabase","indices":[776,785]},{"id_str":"24486938","name":"Nikhil Basu Trivedi","screen_name":"nbt","indices":[2899,2903]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983834443648278593","view_count":148751,"bookmark_count":122,"created_at":1761817963000,"favorite_count":237,"quote_count":6,"reply_count":47,"retweet_count":13,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"I had a conversation with an investor yesterday who claimed there hasn’t been a hit consumer app in over five years.\n\nMy response: ChatGPT is a consumer app.\n\nHe pushed back saying “It started as a research lab, not a consumer company.”\n\nThat convo made me realize how broken our definition of “consumer” has become.\n\nYears ago, I invested in Superhuman after watching my friends (and my Twitter feed) rave about it nonstop. At the time, I was working at a consumer company, yet I never questioned whether Superhuman was “consumer” or not.\n\nPeople love Superhuman for both personal and work use & it’s a daily habit with engagement and retention stronger than most social apps. If that’s not consumer behavior, what is?\n\nThis might sound surprising to some, but I also viewed @supabase from a consumer lens when we invested in the pre-seed, despite it being an open source dev tool. More than the underlying technology, I was most fascinated by the bottoms up nature of how developers were adopting the database and how passionate the early community was about the product.\n\nOpen source projects arguably have stronger communities than most consumer products, and the behaviors are social by nature. They have some of most interesting network effects as every incremental developer makes the project stronger. This aligns perfectly with the classic definition of network effects. \n\nI’ve also always believed that products built by product-first founders, designed for broad, personal use should be considered consumer products. \n\nBut somewhere along the way, we invented the term prosumer, and it’s confused everyone. \n\nIt made these products sound like mini-enterprise tools, which undersells that they’re designed for mass-market behaviors wrapped in productivity.\n\nBy that logic, Superhuman, ChatGPT, Perplexity, and a growing list of “non-consumer” tools are absolutely consumer products.\n\nChatGPT alone has over 750 million weekly active users which is mainstream adoption by any definition. And as it evolves into agentic e-commerce and video gen tools like Sora, its use cases are only getting more personal.\n\nWhy does this matter?\n\nBecause category definitions drive fundraising.\n\nIf you’re a founder pitching a “consumer” product, your pool of potential investors shrinks dramatically. If you just look at how venture firms organize internally, they often literally split their teams by enterprise and consumer, which makes no sense to me. \n\nThe same goes for VCs pitching LPs where consumer is still viewed as a cyclical category. If you send a consumer venture fund deck to a large group of LPs, many categorically wouldn't take your pitch. \n\nIn reality “consumer” today looks nothing like “social, local, mobile” which is how so many people think of consumer. \n\nWork and life are blending, and the products we use every day at home & at work don’t fit cleanly into old boxes.\n\nMy friend @nbt once wrote about the consumerization of the enterprise saying:\n\n“Amazon the largest e-commerce (consumer!) company in the world, offers Amazon Web Services, the largest cloud services (enterprise!) business in the world.\n\nNVIDIA, the largest personal computer graphics (consumer!) company in the world, offers graphics processing units (GPUs) for artificial intelligence applications (enterprise!), and has seen its market cap grow 20X in the past decade since this dual focus.”\n\nThe next generation of breakout apps won’t be defined by where they’re used, but by how deeply they integrate into daily life.\n\nWe’re in the golden age of consumer products. And yes, ChatGPT counts.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,172],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1542601224654127105","name":"Helius","screen_name":"heliuslabs","indices":[11,22]},{"id_str":"1309886201944473600","name":"mert | helius.dev","screen_name":"0xMert_","indices":[74,82]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1983479334947176680","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/LIavHNiSYf","expanded":"https://twitter.com/0xMert_/status/1983479334947176680","display":"x.com/0xMert_/status…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983884450229579777","view_count":11583,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1761829886000,"favorite_count":48,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":5,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983884450229579777","full_text":"We had our @heliuslabs board meeting yesterday. \n\nThe engineering pace of @0xMert_ and the entire team is wild right now.\n\nAnd the roadmap is about to get VERY interesting.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,279],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/uNgGonZr3V","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1983891914207469656/photo/1","id_str":"1983891704093798401","indices":[280,303],"media_key":"3_1983891704093798401","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4gy_mda8AE6LL8.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/uNgGonZr3V","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":217,"y":53,"h":88,"w":88}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":872,"w":766,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":872,"w":766,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":680,"w":597,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":872,"width":766,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":429},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":766},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":765,"h":872},{"x":152,"y":0,"w":436,"h":872},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":872}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1983891704093798401"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/uNgGonZr3V","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1983891914207469656/photo/1","id_str":"1983891704093798401","indices":[280,303],"media_key":"3_1983891704093798401","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4gy_mda8AE6LL8.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/uNgGonZr3V","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":217,"y":53,"h":88,"w":88}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":872,"w":766,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":872,"w":766,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":680,"w":597,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":872,"width":766,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":429},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":766},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":765,"h":872},{"x":152,"y":0,"w":436,"h":872},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":872}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1983891704093798401"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983891914207469656","view_count":5435,"bookmark_count":19,"created_at":1761831665000,"favorite_count":24,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983891914207469656","full_text":"I’ve been reading \"Who Knew\" by Barry Diller this week. \n\nI had the chance to meet Barry twice during my early days at Tinder.\n\nThe first time was three days before Christmas in 2015. I was still new at the company and trying to make a name for myself, so I showed up on December 22nd with just a few others.\n\n“Who’s that guy in the tracksuit?” one of our youngest engineers asked, looking up from his monitor.\n\nI glanced over and saw Barry Diller, owner of IAC and one of Tinder’s biggest shareholders.\n\nI didn’t know it at the time, but Barry (then 75 years old) had a tradition of visiting the Tinder office right before Christmas every year. He’d walk the floor asking questions, genuinely curious about what everyone was building.\n\nI watched him approach one of our engineers and ask, “What are you working on?”\n\nThe engineer started explaining what he was doing in very technical terms, and Barry listened without interrupting. I don’t think the engineer knew who he was because if he did, I’m pretty sure he would’ve been a lot more nervous explaining his code!\n\nA year later, in 2016, I made sure to be in the office those same few days before Christmas. The office was mostly empty again and we had just moved into a much larger space.\n\nSure enough, the guy in the tracksuit showed up again, right on cue. Barry Diller.\n\nHe made his rounds, saying hello and asking the few of us still in the office the same question: “What are you working on?”\n\nOne of the central themes of \"Who Knew\" and of Barry’s career is his obsession with understanding how things work at the most fundamental level:\n\n\"Only if I slowed everything down could I begin to understand all the parts and then try to rearrange them into something coherent. I tend to make things worse in the beginning as I fumble around trying to get to basic truths. Instinct, which I prize almost all else, doesn’t work very well for me in abstruse matters.\n\nI have to get to the core DNA on any matter, its logical essence, before I can add anything of value. This takes a lot of time, often to the irritation of faster thinkers, but when it does crystallize, I can’t be deterred.\n\nI listen with an extra ear, highly attuned to hear a new truth among the cacophony of voices in the room. When I catch that note, no matter what I might have thought before, I’ll change course in a second.\n\nIf I’ve ever had any kind of secret sauce, it’s the ability to hear conflicting, creative ideas bombarded around the room and extract something valuable.\n\nRecently in a meeting, someone complained that I wasn’t being consistent. I replied that I’m never consistent; I’ll turn on a dime if I hear a better truth.” \n- (Barry Diller, Who Knew)\n\nLooking back, I realize that when he asked what we were building, it wasn’t about oversight or management control. It was pure curiosity.\n\nMost leaders want to look smart. Barry wanted to get smart and understand the smallest molecule of what we were building, even on the sleepy days before Christmas.\n\nThe best investors and leaders don’t chase outcomes. They want to understand the wiring underneath.\n\nShow up, ask questions & keep asking until it makes sense. The tracksuit is optional.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[11,161],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"441679284","name":"brett goldstein","screen_name":"thatguybg","indices":[0,10]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"thatguybg","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983843170493382696","view_count":778,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761820044000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@thatguybg Most consumer apps have evolved their business models to subscriptions (same as bottoms up enterprise) and most have tiered pricing at this point too.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"441679284","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983842584788398438","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,293],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"13955342","name":"Trace Vertical Ai Cohen","screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983868789059154119","view_count":518,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761826152000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@Trace_Cohen 100%. On Supabase, they had a cultish community who loved the product before the pre-seed.\n\nAs an investor who does enterprise & consumer like myself, it was helpful to underwrite through a consumer lens.\n\nNow it's a mass market developer product selling to large enterprises.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"13955342","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983867417655750680","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[11,110],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1979921","name":"Josh Elman","screen_name":"joshelman","indices":[0,10]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"joshelman","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983892716288405682","view_count":930,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761831857000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@joshelman 100%. Also fwiw I think Josh Elman is invested in almost all the best consumer apps of his vintage!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1979921","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983892303245885616","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,85],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"35647451","name":"Turner Novak 🍌🧢","screen_name":"TurnerNovak","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"TurnerNovak","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983927717734047759","view_count":667,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761840202000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@TurnerNovak Haha! This was before i got pitched because someone thought I was an LP.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"35647451","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983926158862262518","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,43],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1054947848","name":"Nicole Priel","screen_name":"smallbigtalk","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"smallbigtalk","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983846327105544322","view_count":212,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761820797000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@smallbigtalk would love to read the thesis","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1054947848","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983846102391791901","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,269],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"3014388155","name":"Jeddi","screen_name":"antinertia","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"antinertia","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983857862607827087","view_count":232,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761823547000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@antinertia Prosumer is what they’ve called it historically but those companies tend to get discounted in fundraising from what I’ve seen.\n\nProbably because investors view them as being “in between” both markets. \n\nSo I don’t advise calling yourself a prosumer company.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"3014388155","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983857075298943121","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,32],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"41771957","name":"Ryan Morris","screen_name":"RyanMorris55","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"RyanMorris55","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983893392791925073","view_count":161,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761832018000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@RyanMorris55 Thank you brother!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"41771957","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983893276349415508","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,179],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"2363641","name":"jason yeh","screen_name":"jasonoliver","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"jasonoliver","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983952515470352895","view_count":431,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761846114000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@jasonoliver 100%. And shopping is coming fast with agentic e-commerce. ChatGPT (and its competitors) will end up owning dominant market share across multiple consumer categories.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"2363641","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983951551866831342","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[9,227],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"150388200","name":"Warren Shaeffer","screen_name":"wwshaef","indices":[0,8]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"wwshaef","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983946533159772285","view_count":272,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761844688000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@wwshaef I agree with your definition. Simple is very useful. \n\nMost bottoms-up software has consumer overlap. \n\nProductivity Software is a decent label but tends to devalue companies because there haven’t been many huge exits.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"150388200","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983945638405611746","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-01","value":2,"startTime":1761868800000,"endTime":1761955200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,124],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"39191312","name":"Kirsten Green","screen_name":"kirstenagreen","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"kirstenagreen","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1984113931565330944","view_count":863,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761884598000,"favorite_count":7,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1984107536052842496","full_text":"@kirstenagreen “ChatGPT wasn’t necessarily designed as a consumer product, but consumers claimed it anyway.”\n\nExactly right.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"39191312","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1984107536052842496","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[7,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"22961818","name":"Todd Jackson","screen_name":"tjack","indices":[0,6]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"tjack","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1984358200276382017","view_count":247,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761942837000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@tjack That's a great list, and 100% agree.\n\nConsumer gets anchored on social and things like DTC which is an outdated definition.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"22961818","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1984344313393004585","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-02","value":3,"startTime":1761955200000,"endTime":1762041600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/cf2xeuTten","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1984669264100618636/photo/1","id_str":"1984666463513559043","indices":[277,300],"media_key":"3_1984666463513559043","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4rzoiNbQAMI02X.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/cf2xeuTten","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1067,"w":1600,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":800,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":453,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":1067,"width":1600,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":72,"w":1600,"h":896},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1067,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":936,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":534,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1600,"h":1067}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1984666463513559043"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1718560501825933312","name":"Discipulus Ventures","screen_name":"DiscipulusVent","indices":[38,53]},{"id_str":"1213544133878370304","name":"Jakob Diepenbrock","screen_name":"jakobdiepen","indices":[73,85]},{"id_str":"1718560501825933312","name":"Discipulus Ventures","screen_name":"DiscipulusVent","indices":[38,53]},{"id_str":"1213544133878370304","name":"Jakob Diepenbrock","screen_name":"jakobdiepen","indices":[73,85]},{"id_str":"1333613797907582976","name":"Augustus Doricko","screen_name":"ADoricko","indices":[519,528]},{"id_str":"1716643091137056768","name":"Rainmaker Technology Corporation","screen_name":"RainmakerCorp","indices":[534,548]},{"id_str":"1152136922694766593","name":"Ted Feldmann","screen_name":"teddyfeld","indices":[550,560]},{"id_str":"1843811438332391427","name":"Durin","screen_name":"DurinMining","indices":[566,578]},{"id_str":"1435266698701991936","name":"Isaiah Taylor - making nuclear reactors","screen_name":"isaiah_p_taylor","indices":[610,626]},{"id_str":"1676587706896490496","name":"Valar Atomics","screen_name":"valaratomics","indices":[632,645]},{"id_str":"1213544133878370304","name":"Jakob Diepenbrock","screen_name":"jakobdiepen","indices":[657,669]},{"id_str":"1718560501825933312","name":"Discipulus Ventures","screen_name":"DiscipulusVent","indices":[2816,2831]}]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/cf2xeuTten","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1984669264100618636/photo/1","id_str":"1984666463513559043","indices":[277,300],"media_key":"3_1984666463513559043","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4rzoiNbQAMI02X.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/cf2xeuTten","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1067,"w":1600,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":800,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":453,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":1067,"width":1600,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":72,"w":1600,"h":896},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1067,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":936,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":534,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1600,"h":1067}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1984666463513559043"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1984669264100618636","view_count":11258,"bookmark_count":16,"created_at":1762017000000,"favorite_count":66,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":9,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1984669264100618636","full_text":"I spent Thursday in El Segundo at the @DiscipulusVent Demo Day hosted by @jakobdiepen and team. \n\nAs I walked up to the venue, I immediately saw three Bay Area investors standing in line. \n\nAll of them had flown in from San Francisco for the event, which was great to see. But when I walked through the doors, I realized it wasn’t just a Bay Area thing. The room was packed with investors from all over the country who’d made the same trip. Clearly, something real is happening here.\n\nThe day started with a panel with @ADoricko from @RainmakerCorp, @teddyfeld from @DurinMining (Ch. 1 portfolio company), and @isaiah_p_taylor from @valaratomics along with @jakobdiepen - who gave a quick history lesson on El Segundo’s roots.\n\nBefore World War II, this city was home to Douglas Aircraft, builder of the SBD Dauntless dive bomber and a symbol of American industrial strength. It’s no accident that so many “America First” companies are being built here again. Founders in El Segundo are carrying that legacy forward.\n\nThey showed a map of the current startup ecosystem, which is 55+ companies, and most of them have come into existence since 2023. \n\nI know 55 companies doesn't sound like a huge number, but as you think about the venture capital interest and momentum that El Segundo has, it's easy to imagine that number becoming 100’s and 1000’s in years to come in the city and surrounding areas. \n\nOne of the other most interesting messages was how El Segundo is evolving from being a bit of a meme (which was very intentional to get people to pay attention) to now deploying products in the physical world. \n\nAugustus from Rainmaker had just gotten back from a trip to Oregon where they deployed rain the prior day (I believe he said the cloud seeding operation was 100m+ gallons). \n\nTed from Durin had recently successfully completed his first drilling operation in Nevada. Both companies have done so on modest budgets, and the founders challenged the idea that hard tech is as capital-intensive as most venture capitalists think. \n\nThe demo day featured ten companies spanning a wide range of sectors, all united around one core theme: strengthening America.\n\nThese founders are tackling hard, meaningful problems in areas like energy, autonomous manufacturing, commodity trading, heavy equipment procurement, autonomous farming, and oil and gas.\n\nIt’s worth noting that many of the companies aren’t pure hardware plays. Some are software-first, and others are software-enabled hardware, which, frankly, is what all hardware is becoming.\n\nMy takeaway is that there doesn’t need to be such a hard divide between hardware and software investors. These worlds are starting to blend, and I expect that collaboration to accelerate over the next few years.\n\nWhat’s clear is that El Segundo is here to stay & that @DiscipulusVent is building something special (I’m a proud LP in the fund). The founders here are working on serious problems, and the momentum is real. I’d bet the next demo day will draw an even bigger crowd of investors from across the country.\n\nVery bullish on El Segundo & the next chapter for LA tech.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-03","value":0,"startTime":1762041600000,"endTime":1762128000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,277],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1984846679720542704","view_count":2379,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1762059299000,"favorite_count":21,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":6,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1984846679720542704","full_text":"I grew up in the Bay Area as a Giants fan, but now live in Los Angeles and goes without saying, this city earned a championship this year. Congratulations to the Dodgers.\n\nFor anyone who’s been here, 2025 has been a brutal year for Los Angeles. The January 7th fires marked the start of years of loss and rebuilding. Tonight’s win gives people here something to rally around, something that actually feels good again.\n\nSports have a way of healing pain and heartbreak. Being in L.A. tonight feels like the city finally got a moment of relief.\n\nCongratulations to the Dodgers and to Los Angeles.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-04","value":0,"startTime":1762128000000,"endTime":1762214400000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-05","value":1,"startTime":1762214400000,"endTime":1762300800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,54],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1985639448785174836","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/8rm1V9sGlK","expanded":"https://twitter.com/uialexk/status/1985639448785174836","display":"x.com/uialexk/status…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1985707818230452710","view_count":9198,"bookmark_count":5,"created_at":1762264611000,"favorite_count":26,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1985707818230452710","full_text":"We have entered the large narrow sans serif slop phase","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,291],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1457278696931405828","name":"rosie (🔟/🔟)","screen_name":"therosieum","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"therosieum","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1985840026744189139","view_count":22,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762296132000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1984987750647333350","full_text":"This was a great post.\n\n“The problem is, you can’t build anything meaningful in 18 months. Real infrastructure takes at least 3–5 years. Real product-market fit requires iteration over years, not quarters.”\n\nThat said, I actually think those timelines are compressing.\n\nInfra can now be built in 1–2 years, and PMF can happen in weeks or months for strong applications.\n\nWe just need more original ideas - not the 75th prediction market.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1457278696931405828","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1984987750647333350","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-06","value":0,"startTime":1762300800000,"endTime":1762387200000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-07","value":2,"startTime":1762387200000,"endTime":1762473600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,134],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"768929915844513792","name":"Jamesin Seidel","screen_name":"seidtweets","indices":[123,134]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1986437434213544227","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/XjktPxYNjP","expanded":"https://twitter.com/viraj__acharya/status/1986437434213544227","display":"x.com/viraj__acharya…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986494295663386907","view_count":4971,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762452122000,"favorite_count":9,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986494295663386907","full_text":"Jamesin killed it as always.\n\nThe best venture firms earn the right to be “partners” & not just investors. \n\nWell done @seidtweets","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"44196397","name":"Elon Musk","screen_name":"elonmusk","indices":[64,73]},{"id_str":"44196397","name":"Elon Musk","screen_name":"elonmusk","indices":[64,73]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986557513740001382","view_count":3764,"bookmark_count":4,"created_at":1762467194000,"favorite_count":18,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986557513740001382","full_text":"Tesla AGM right now is all about the robots 🤖\nA few quotes from @elonmusk:\n\nOn scale:\n“Optimus is going to be the biggest product of all time. Bigger than cell phones. Bigger than anything else.”\n\nOn use cases:\n“There will be 3–5 industrial robots for every personal robot.”\n\nOn speed:\n“We’re going to launch the fastest production ramp of any large manufactured product, starting with a million-unit per year production line in Fremont.”\n\nRobots aren’t coming. They’re already here.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-08","value":9,"startTime":1762473600000,"endTime":1762560000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986839703291896042","view_count":9,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762534473000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986839703291896042","full_text":"The “hype video” startup trend will fade, just like every other form of attention arbitrage.\n\nI say that as someone who actually went to film school and loves video. But we’ve reached the point where agencies are producing hype videos for fundraising rounds just to trigger VC FOMO.\n\nVirality has never been easier to manufacture, or shorter-lived.\n\nSpending $25K on a product video might make sense from a valuation or dilution standpoint. But is that really the culture you want to build?\n\nAnd when the investors who FOMO’d into your round realize the growth story doesn’t hold up, how do you think that plays out?\n\nBuild great products. The hype video era is already getting stale.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986841507282964826","view_count":113,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1762534903000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986841507282964826","full_text":"The “hype video” startup trend will fade, just like every other form of attention arbitrage.\n\nI say that as someone who actually went to film school and loves video. But we’ve reached the point where agencies are producing hype videos for fundraising rounds just to trigger VC fomo. \n\nIt’s now part of the fundraising playbook:\n\nMake a pitch deck. Make a hype video. Go a little bit viral. Rinse and repeat.\n\nVirality has never been easier to manufacture, but it’s also never been shorter-lived.\n\nSpending $25K on a product video might make sense from a valuation or dilution standpoint. But is that really the culture you want to build?\n\nAnd when the investors who FOMO’d into your round realize the growth story doesn’t hold up, how do you think that plays out?\n\nBuild great products that solve real problems. The hype video era is already stale.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,275],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986848712908546121","view_count":18228,"bookmark_count":32,"created_at":1762536621000,"favorite_count":92,"quote_count":7,"reply_count":13,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986848712908546121","full_text":"The “hype video” startup trend will fade, just like every other form of attention arbitrage.\n\nI say that as someone who actually went to film school and loves video. But we’ve reached the point where agencies are producing hype videos for fundraising rounds just to create VC fomo. \n\nIt’s now part of the fundraising playbook:\n\nMake a pitch deck. Make a hype video. Go a little bit viral. Rinse & repeat.\n\nVirality has never been easier to manufacture, but it’s also never been shorter-lived. The investors you actually want around for the next decade can tell the difference.\n\nSpending $25K on a product video might make sense from a valuation or dilution standpoint. But is that really the culture you want to build?\n\nAnd when the investors who FOMO’d into your round realize the growth story doesn’t hold up, how do you think that plays out?\n\nBuild great products that solve real problems. The hype video era is already stale.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,215],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986892752286883962","view_count":3190,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1762547121000,"favorite_count":18,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986892752286883962","full_text":"The most important part of “staying in crypto” as an early stage investor is being completely unemotional about the markets.\n\nI feel nothing when our crypto book swings 20–30%.\n\nMaybe that’s unhealthy. But it works.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-09","value":23,"startTime":1762560000000,"endTime":1762646400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,234],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"787810160513200129","name":"Chapter One","screen_name":"chapterone","indices":[50,61]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986969884362940562","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762565511000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986969884362940562","full_text":"Yesterday we locked in two deals that will define @chapterone’s next chapter.\n\nOne: an incubation with a major IP partner (a year in the making).\n\nTwo: a product we’ll launch publicly soon with a major tech platform. \n\nAlways cooking.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,239],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"787810160513200129","name":"Chapter One","screen_name":"chapterone","indices":[50,61]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986970650532327456","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762565693000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986970650532327456","full_text":"Yesterday we locked in two deals that will define @chapterone’s next chapter.\n\nOne: an incubation with a major IP partner (a year in the making).\n\nTwo: a product we’ll launch publicly soon with a well known tech platform. \n\nAlways cooking.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,232],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"787810160513200129","name":"Chapter One","screen_name":"chapterone","indices":[50,61]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986970741779407185","view_count":6055,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1762565715000,"favorite_count":48,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986970741779407185","full_text":"Yesterday we locked in two deals that will define @chapterone’s next chapter.\n\nOne: an incubation with a major IP partner (a year in the making).\n\nTwo: a product we’ll launch publicly soon with a big tech platform. \n\nAlways cooking.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,281],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987236350836494777","view_count":164696,"bookmark_count":200,"created_at":1762629041000,"favorite_count":476,"quote_count":11,"reply_count":30,"retweet_count":21,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1987236350836494777","full_text":"Startup beef is always funny.\n\nYears ago, I worked at a marketplace & we decided Craigslist was our enemy. We built narratives around “beating” them, studied their every move, and even shaped internal goals around taking their users. I’m pretty sure they never thought about us once.\n\nLater, we shifted our obsession to TaskRabbit. Remember Taskrabbit? We spent so much energy trying to outdo them w/ pricing wars, feature debates, endless comparisons. But in the end, neither of us became a breakout, venture-scale success.\n\nThe real competitors were the ones playing a much bigger game: DoorDash, Instacart, Uber. We knew those founders personally, hung out with them at the same SF parties, but never saw them as direct competition. Turns out, they were just playing a different sport entirely.\n\nI see the same thing today in AI and crypto. Startups beefing over tiny overlaps, chasing small wins. Before you pick a fight, make sure you’re actually in a market worth winning. \n\nOtherwise, you’ll wake up every morning obsessed with a game that doesn’t matter.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,54],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"954060455831580672","name":"Molly O’Shea","screen_name":"MollySOShea","indices":[0,12]},{"id_str":"768929915844513792","name":"Jamesin Seidel","screen_name":"seidtweets","indices":[21,32]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"MollySOShea","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987168354260689078","view_count":85,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762612830000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986824069094822264","full_text":"@MollySOShea Talk to @seidtweets - she will have ideas","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"954060455831580672","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1986824069094822264","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,107],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"21706010","name":"Daniel Pearson","screen_name":"danielpearson","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"danielpearson","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987239060021387360","view_count":5021,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762629687000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1987236350836494777","full_text":"@danielpearson Love that Peter Thiel quote and very true.\n\nIf only we had venture funds at that point haha.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"21706010","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987237809229599115","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-10","value":0,"startTime":1762646400000,"endTime":1762732800000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-11","value":0,"startTime":1762732800000,"endTime":1762819200000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-12","value":0,"startTime":1762819200000,"endTime":1762905600000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-13","value":0,"startTime":1762905600000,"endTime":1762992000000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-14","value":23,"startTime":1762992000000,"endTime":1763078400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"4188045073","name":"Jordi Hays","screen_name":"jordihays","indices":[828,838]},{"id_str":"30736937","name":"John Coogan","screen_name":"johncoogan","indices":[841,852]},{"id_str":"1838288550569349120","name":"TBPN","screen_name":"tbpn","indices":[856,861]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988981359013163127","view_count":63,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763045084000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988981359013163127","full_text":"Venture Capital Musical Chairs\n\nWhen I first got into venture capital, I assumed that General Partners stayed at firms for most of their careers. From the outside, venture capital shops looked like stable institutions. At the very least, they felt more permanent than the startups they backed.\n\nThat assumption was dead wrong.\n\nBack then, I was at Tinder and a scout for Index Ventures. It was an awesome experience, but I definitely underestimated how turbulent things can be inside other venture firms I was co-investing with and getting to know more closely.\n\nThat turbulence has only accelerated in the last few years. Every week, I see partners leaving, firms reshaping their strategies, and LP relationships shifting. \n\nIt feels like watching ESPN at this point waiting for Shams to break some trade news. Luckily we have @jordihays & @johncoogan at @tbpn.\n\nFor founders, venture capital musical chairs feels like something happening on the other side of the table. You sense the industry shifting, but you’re busy building your company. Whatever chaos is unfolding inside venture firms isn’t exactly top of mind.\n\nBut you should be thinking about it a lot more. And here's why. \n\nWhen you raise from a venture firm, you don’t really raise from the firm. You raise from a specific partner. You take their calls, you trust their judgment, and you build your relationship around them. They’re the one who sits on your board, texts you late at night, and ideally, fights for you when things get tough. \n\nWhen they leave, you lose that advocate. Suddenly, the person who cared most about your survival inside the partnership is gone.\n\nIn today’s venture world, that partner may not even be around by the time your next fundraise rolls around. \n\nI was talking to a former partner at a multi-stage fund yesterday, and she told me that the average partner at a venture firm sticks around for 7 years. And when they leave, the implications for you are important to understand.\n\nWhat often happens next is that you become an “adopted company.” Other partners don’t rush to claim you, because supporting you doesn’t count toward their scoreboard. Venture is a business built on attribution, and if they didn’t source or lead your deal, the incentive to spend time helping you is low. You end up feeling like the kid at the dinner table nobody wants to introduce.\n\nBoard dynamics only make the problem worse. If your original partner leaves, their seat might be reassigned to someone who barely knows your business, or worse, someone who doesn’t care to. \n\nNow you’re wasting cycles re-educating a new person who has little emotional or financial attachment to your success. Instead of focusing on building, you’re back at square one, explaining the basics to someone who isn’t invested in your story.\n\nAnd then there’s the signaling risk. Other investors notice when your champion departs their firm. LPs notice too. Even if your company is performing well, your life will change.\n\n“Is the firm still supporting you?” You’ll get asked this question dozens of times by other investors, potential hires, and media. You can explain this pretty easily, but it’s just one of those annoying questions that you’ll have to talk about for many years to come.\n\nThis isn’t meant to be morbid. It’s a reminder to choose your partners carefully and understand their career trajectory and standing inside the firm.\n\nFundraising is chaotic right now. Bubble or not, founders and investors are speed-dating their way into big rounds, and everyone’s expected to build trust on a timeline that would be insane in any normal business relationship.\n\nMy best advice is don’t assume the partner you pick will be there forever. Get to know the rest of the partnership, understand how they think, and make sure you actually believe in the firm’s culture and ethos.\n\nA friend put it well yesterday: the only person who’s almost certainly sticking around is the founder of the firm. That’s the longest term partner you're getting into business with. You may not get much access to the founder(s) of a firm, but it’s still worth knowing their story, their reputation, and how they’ve shown up for founders over time.\n\nIf your deal sponsor is gone in a few years, would you still be proud to call that firm your investor? \n\nIf the answer is yes, great, but make sure you’re diligencing them as hard as they’re diligencing you.\n\nVenture Capital Musical Chairs isn’t stopping anytime soon. If anything, it will get much spicier as we understand which partners took massive AI swings that will generate many billions for their firms, or leave their firms holding the bag.\n\nIn either case, your partner still might leave. \n\nInvestors who crushed this AI wave might use that momentum to spin out and start their own firms. And the ones who didn’t get big wins in this cycle might be looking for new jobs soon for reasons we all understand.\n\nAs a founder, choose your partners carefully and make damn sure you’re not the last one left standing when the music stops. \n\nFin.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"4188045073","name":"Jordi Hays","screen_name":"jordihays","indices":[859,869]},{"id_str":"30736937","name":"John Coogan","screen_name":"johncoogan","indices":[872,883]},{"id_str":"1838288550569349120","name":"TBPN","screen_name":"tbpn","indices":[887,892]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988983199872004228","view_count":66136,"bookmark_count":126,"created_at":1763045523000,"favorite_count":165,"quote_count":6,"reply_count":19,"retweet_count":23,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"Venture Capital Musical Chairs (And Why Founders Should Care)\n\nWhen I first got into venture capital, I assumed that General Partners stayed at firms for most of their careers. From the outside, venture capital shops looked like stable institutions. At the very least, they felt more permanent than the startups they backed.\n\nThat assumption was dead wrong.\n\nBack then, I was at Tinder and a scout for Index Ventures. It was an awesome experience, but I definitely underestimated how turbulent things can be inside other venture firms I was co-investing with and getting to know more closely.\n\nThat turbulence has only accelerated in the last few years. Every week, I see partners leaving, firms reshaping their strategies, and LP relationships shifting. \n\nIt feels like watching ESPN at this point waiting for Shams to break some trade news. Luckily we have @jordihays & @johncoogan at @tbpn.\n\nFor founders, venture capital musical chairs feels like something happening on the other side of the table. You sense the industry shifting, but you’re busy building your company. Whatever chaos is unfolding inside venture firms isn’t exactly top of mind.\n\nBut you should be thinking about it a lot more. And here's why. \n\nWhen you raise from a venture firm, you don’t really raise from the firm. You raise from a specific partner. You take their calls, you trust their judgment, and you build your relationship around them. They’re the one who sits on your board, texts you late at night, and ideally, fights for you when things get tough. \n\nWhen they leave, you lose that advocate. Suddenly, the person who cared most about your survival inside the partnership is gone.\n\nIn today’s venture world, that partner may not even be around by the time your next fundraise rolls around. \n\nI was talking to a former partner at a multi-stage fund yesterday, and she told me that the average partner at a venture firm sticks around for 7 years. And when they leave, the implications for you are important to understand.\n\nWhat often happens next is that you become an “adopted company.” Other partners don’t rush to claim you, because supporting you doesn’t count toward their scoreboard. Venture is a business built on attribution, and if they didn’t source or lead your deal, the incentive to spend time helping you is low.\n\nBoard dynamics only make the problem worse. If your original partner leaves, their seat might be reassigned to someone who barely knows your business, or worse, someone who doesn’t care to. \n\nNow you’re wasting cycles re-educating a new person who has little emotional or financial attachment to your success. Instead of focusing on building, you’re back at square one, explaining the basics to someone who isn’t invested in your story.\n\nAnd then there’s the signaling risk. Other investors notice when your champion departs their firm. LPs notice too. Even if your company is performing well, your life will change.\n\n“Is the firm still supporting you?” You’ll get asked this question dozens of times by other investors, potential hires, and media. You can explain this pretty easily, but it’s just one of those annoying questions that you’ll have to talk about for many years to come.\n\nThis isn’t meant to be morbid. It’s a reminder to choose your partners carefully and understand their career trajectory and standing inside the firm.\n\nFundraising is chaotic right now. Bubble or not, founders and investors are speed-dating their way into big rounds, and everyone’s expected to build trust on a timeline that would be insane in any normal business relationship.\n\nMy best advice is don’t assume the partner you pick will be there forever. Get to know the rest of the partnership, understand how they think, and make sure you actually believe in the firm’s culture and ethos.\n\nA friend put it well yesterday: the only person who’s almost certainly sticking around is the founder of the firm. That’s the longest term partner you're getting into business with. You may not get much access to the founder(s) of a firm, but it’s still worth knowing their story, their reputation, and how they’ve shown up for founders over time.\n\nVenture Capital Musical Chairs isn’t stopping anytime soon. If anything, it will get much spicier as we understand which partners took massive AI swings that will generate many billions for their firms, or leave their firms holding the bag.\n\nIn either case, your partner still might leave. \n\nInvestors who crushed this AI wave might use that momentum to spin out and start their own firms. And the ones who didn’t get big wins in this cycle might be looking for new jobs soon for reasons we all understand.\n\nAs a founder, choose your partners carefully and make damn sure you’re not the last one left standing when the music stops. \n\nFin.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,75],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"35647451","name":"Turner Novak 🍌🧢","screen_name":"TurnerNovak","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"TurnerNovak","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988990321540399109","view_count":1308,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763047220000,"favorite_count":4,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"@TurnerNovak Very effective Sparknotes version - I need you to be my editor","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"35647451","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1988989896195756499","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-15","value":10,"startTime":1763078400000,"endTime":1763164800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,87],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1989156238018683215","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/Ssm5bH6JtM","expanded":"https://twitter.com/rohanpaul_ai/status/1989156238018683215","display":"x.com/rohanpaul_ai/s…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989213951863955480","view_count":2628,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1763100538000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989213951863955480","full_text":"Solana FDV: $80B (feels cheap)\nA 1-year-old AI startup: $50B\n\nWelcome to pure-vibes VC.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,121],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rsKQuQih8o","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1989184813312680086/photo/1","id_str":"1989184305332174848","indices":[122,145],"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5sAligbQAAxQo3.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rsKQuQih8o","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":977,"y":403,"h":520,"w":520},{"x":1347,"y":59,"h":635,"w":635},{"x":507,"y":376,"h":589,"w":589}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":572,"y":236,"h":304,"w":304},{"x":789,"y":35,"h":372,"w":372},{"x":297,"y":220,"h":345,"w":345}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":324,"y":134,"h":172,"w":172},{"x":447,"y":19,"h":211,"w":211},{"x":168,"y":124,"h":195,"w":195}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":1833,"y":757,"h":975,"w":975},{"x":2527,"y":112,"h":1192,"w":1192},{"x":952,"y":705,"h":1106,"w":1106}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1152,"w":2048,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":675,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":2160,"width":3840,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":10,"w":3840,"h":2150},{"x":552,"y":0,"w":2160,"h":2160},{"x":685,"y":0,"w":1895,"h":2160},{"x":1092,"y":0,"w":1080,"h":2160},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":3840,"h":2160}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[{"display_url":"x.com/OpenAI/status/…","expanded_url":"https://x.com/OpenAI/status/1989138776585851038","url":"https://t.co/5gFtHQYNiu","indices":[98,121]}],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rsKQuQih8o","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1989184813312680086/photo/1","id_str":"1989184305332174848","indices":[122,145],"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5sAligbQAAxQo3.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rsKQuQih8o","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":977,"y":403,"h":520,"w":520},{"x":1347,"y":59,"h":635,"w":635},{"x":507,"y":376,"h":589,"w":589}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":572,"y":236,"h":304,"w":304},{"x":789,"y":35,"h":372,"w":372},{"x":297,"y":220,"h":345,"w":345}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":324,"y":134,"h":172,"w":172},{"x":447,"y":19,"h":211,"w":211},{"x":168,"y":124,"h":195,"w":195}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":1833,"y":757,"h":975,"w":975},{"x":2527,"y":112,"h":1192,"w":1192},{"x":952,"y":705,"h":1106,"w":1106}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1152,"w":2048,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":675,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":2160,"width":3840,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":10,"w":3840,"h":2150},{"x":552,"y":0,"w":2160,"h":2160},{"x":685,"y":0,"w":1895,"h":2160},{"x":1092,"y":0,"w":1080,"h":2160},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":3840,"h":2160}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"quoted_status_id_str":"1983834443648278593","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/t56Kl9NM7f","expanded":"https://twitter.com/jmj/status/1983834443648278593","display":"x.com/jmj/status/198…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989184813312680086","view_count":19239,"bookmark_count":23,"created_at":1763093591000,"favorite_count":52,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989184813312680086","full_text":"ChatGPT now has group chats.\n\nCongrats to the newest social network on the internet. Case closed.\nhttps://t.co/5gFtHQYNiu https://t.co/rsKQuQih8o","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,282],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989423657438121993","view_count":21867,"bookmark_count":60,"created_at":1763150536000,"favorite_count":102,"quote_count":5,"reply_count":24,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"Vibe Investing Is the New Vibe Coding\n\nThe institutional memory of what happened in 2020–2022 is basically gone. It’s wild how quickly we as an industry forgot.\n\nI have a theory that our brains now process trauma & even financial bubbles in smaller and smaller increments. We’re living through the compression of emotional memory. Our tech industry systems take in stimuli that are too frequent, too loud, and too fast, so nothing sticks. \n\nI dug into my theory more (which you’ve likely felt intuitively but maybe haven’t articulated) and it turns out there’s actually a concept called “emotional amnesia\" which is a feeling numb or disconnected about what is happening around you.\n\nI won’t bore you with the academic details, but my takeaway as applied to venture capital is that the half-life on lessons learned (and in most businesses) is collapsing at the same pace you scroll a TikTok feed. We breeze past a $3B seed round at a $30B valuation like it’s a TMZ clip. \n\nAs a first-time manager who launched a fund in 2019, the 2020–2022 bubble left a permanent imprint on me. I’ll never forget what that period felt like. \n\nThe velocity, FOMO & the total detachment from fundamentals was intoxicating for everyone. Your seed check jumps from a $10M post to a $150M post in 30 days. Congrats… I guess? Because now you have to decide whether to follow on. And it’s a tier-one lead. What do you do?\n\nThat environment pushed every firm, including the great ones, into some objectively terrible decisions.\n\nAnd when I look at venture today, the industry barely resembles what it was even six years ago. We used to joke about “vibe investing” as the exception. The charismatic founder with cult-leader energy, the weird but magnetic pitch, the occasional “let’s take a flyer and see what happens.” Now it’s the norm. \n\nAura and an AI narrative = 10 term sheets.\n\nThere are insanely talented, credible operators building world-changing companies. But a $50B valuation for a pre-product seed round? Is that even venture capital? Call it whatever you want (and honestly we probably need a new category name) because it’s a completely different industry at this point.\n\nThe biggest takeaway is that at almost every stage from seed, growth, crossover, even public markets, we’re operating on vibes. Maybe I’m slowly becoming a boomer for even saying this.\n\nBut it's narrative over numbers, momentum over diligence, social proof over actual proof.\n\nCritics dunk on “vibe coding” as a Gen Z builder phenomenon that creates technical slop, but venture capital has built its own version: vibe investing.\n\nDrop a pitch deck into ChatGPT, run a Deep Research query, and boom “I don’t even need analysts anymore!” You skim the output in five minutes between pitch calls and try to stitch together a market thesis. Meanwhile the founder is a fundraising machine and every other firm is running the exact same Deep Research report you are.\n\nYou better move fast.\n\nSo you hop into Granola, grab one smart-sounding insight from your call, and paste it into Slack like you discovered fire. Your partners light up. Then you mention the founder already has multiple term sheets and suddenly everyone’s ready to clear their calendars.\n\nWe won’t know what turns into investment slop for a few years, but vibe-driven deals are definitely going to push that percentage way up. \n\nMaybe that’s fine & maybe this time really is different, and the outliers will paper over all the vibe-investing slop. But if you’re an emerging manager or running a concentrated portfolio, that’s a dangerous way to live. You don’t get to spray-and-pray your way out of vibes.\n\nRight now the vibes are insanely strong. It’s exciting. I feel just as fired up as everyone else and that energy is exactly why venture and technology keep marching forward.\n\nBut if I had one message today it would be this. \n\nGOOD LUCK AVOIDING THE SLOP.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,14],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"25232333","name":"Pat McGovern","screen_name":"pw_mcgovern","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"pw_mcgovern","lang":"qme","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989437186396332277","view_count":90,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763153761000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@pw_mcgovern 🔥","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"25232333","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989435465892606039","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,47],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"180030016","name":"davidfeiock","screen_name":"davidfeiock","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"davidfeiock","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989439081856864670","view_count":95,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763154213000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@davidfeiock Doing my best to please the people","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"180030016","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989438684970840404","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[16,33],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"90144647","name":"Viraj Acharya","screen_name":"Viraj__Acharya","indices":[0,15]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Viraj__Acharya","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989474730047672821","view_count":55,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763162712000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@Viraj__Acharya Haha yes happy to","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"90144647","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989469687676350678","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,283],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"729253848787738624","name":"george beall","screen_name":"GeorgePBeall","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"GeorgePBeall","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989425758935363750","view_count":254,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763151037000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@GeorgePBeall There will be a mean reversion as DPI gets realized. There is a category land grab right now, and the opportunity is massive, so capital is piling in. Long-term bullish on AI, but at some point, early stage investors will need to get back to some version of discipline.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"729253848787738624","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989425239139520664","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,292],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"13955342","name":"Trace Vertical Ai Cohen","screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989438237971300635","view_count":292,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1763154012000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"Agreed. I think the biggest mistake people will make is not knowing what game they're playing. An emerging manager with a smaller fund trying to execute on the multi-stage strategy is problematic. You have windows of opportunity where you can do things that are outside your core strategy, and putting guard rails on that bucket is hugely important. It's also really easy to let the guard rails down.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"13955342","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989437434082595107","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[11,103],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"192784466","name":"Jeff Richards","screen_name":"jrichlive","indices":[0,10]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"jrichlive","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989351865327472987","view_count":302,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763133419000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"@jrichlive Wild - will check back on this tweet in a few years so you can tell me about the 4th and 5th","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"192784466","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989350740587077902","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,37],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1449604717038825477","name":"Lucas Dickey","screen_name":"LucasDickey4","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"LucasDickey4","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989169728783524119","view_count":446,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763089994000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"@LucasDickey4 This is a great summary","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1449604717038825477","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989167000841777461","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-16","value":0,"startTime":1763164800000,"endTime":1763251200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[16,77],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1950463458648150016","name":"Stanley Wei","screen_name":"StanleyWei4748","indices":[0,15]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"StanleyWei4748","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989713118495490161","view_count":27,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763219549000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@StanleyWei4748 They were supposed to be the roaring 20s and we got this haha","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1950463458648150016","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989711120332910993","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[7,282],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"6874252","name":"Indus Khaitan","screen_name":"1ndus","indices":[0,6]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"1ndus","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989565798088937553","view_count":64,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763184425000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"There are great firms with more than four to five partners. I would just figure out who you're getting into business with and what that partners is standing at the firm. How long have they been there? Have they made any great investments yet? What's their career history look like? Are they someone who will bounce around a lot? Etc.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"6874252","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989558109883519352","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-17","value":0,"startTime":1763251200000,"endTime":1763337600000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-18","value":12,"startTime":1763337600000,"endTime":1763424000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,279],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990480739989868627","view_count":1894,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1763402564000,"favorite_count":16,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990480739989868627","full_text":"When vibe coding started getting popular, some people said, “we won’t need designers anymore, you can just design things yourself.” \n\nThe opposite happened.\n\nI talked to a well respected designer friend today who said freelance rates are climbing, and hiring a full-time designer in the U.S. now starts at $150K.\n\nHe shared a framing I liked:\n\n\"Teams understand the models are going to make everyone 7/10 designers. Which does eliminate the need for low end of the market. But if you can help someone ship 9 or 10/10 design you’ve never been more valuable because it’s now one of the core means of differentiation.\"\n\nAI made bad design easier. It made great design harder & more expensive.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,279],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990491897375436825","view_count":16659,"bookmark_count":48,"created_at":1763405224000,"favorite_count":101,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":16,"retweet_count":9,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990491897375436825","full_text":"When vibe coding started getting popular, some people said, “we won’t need designers anymore, you can just design things yourself.” \n\nThe opposite happened.\n\nI talked to a well respected designer friend today who said freelance design rates are getting more expensive, and hiring a full-time designer in the U.S. now starts at $150K.\n\nHe shared a framing I liked:\n\n\"Teams understand the models are going to make everyone 7/10 designers. Which does eliminate the need for low end of the market. But if you can help someone ship 9 or 10/10 design you’ve never been more valuable because it’s now one of the core means of differentiation.\"\n\nAI made bad design easier. It also made great design harder & more expensive.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-19","value":14,"startTime":1763424000000,"endTime":1763510400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,146],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/CzdN0xANyq","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1990572770015809922/photo/1","id_str":"1990571616619933696","indices":[147,170],"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5_uVrybMAAQ8U6.png","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/CzdN0xANyq","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":609,"width":568,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":318},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":568},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":534,"h":609},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":305,"h":609},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":609}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/CzdN0xANyq","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1990572770015809922/photo/1","id_str":"1990571616619933696","indices":[147,170],"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5_uVrybMAAQ8U6.png","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/CzdN0xANyq","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":609,"width":568,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":318},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":568},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":534,"h":609},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":305,"h":609},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":609}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990572770015809922","view_count":5620,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1763424506000,"favorite_count":27,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990572770015809922","full_text":"LP inbox right now: a flood of GPs explaining why they didn’t see the Bezos AI deal.\n\n\"Our sourcing engine is being rebuilt from first principles\" https://t.co/CzdN0xANyq","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1990841773799682300","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/ivg0YeXKEN","expanded":"https://twitter.com/yrechtman/status/1990841773799682300","display":"x.com/yrechtman/stat…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990855280654233609","view_count":23462,"bookmark_count":70,"created_at":1763491861000,"favorite_count":79,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":7,"retweet_count":4,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990855280654233609","full_text":"One question that every seed investor should be asking themselves right now is whether they should be focusing more on early traction rounds, as opposed to pre-product investing. \n\nIn the past couple months, we've met a few teams raising rounds at $30M-$40M post-valuation who have real traction ($1-$4m ARR). \n\nAs a seed investor, would you rather invest in one of these rounds at $40m post or a pre-product seed round that calls itself an AI company at a $20M-$30M post? They're basically priced the same. \n\nSome of the early tractions teams call these rounds \"seed extensions,\" and others stretch it to a Series A label. \n\nFor whatever reason, they haven't been treated as \"hot companies\" by the Series A market, but they're building very solid businesses that are growing well. \n\nI haven't come up with an exact terminology for these companies. They're generally not pure-play AI deals, but are often utilizing AI in interesting ways. The headline on the deck doesn't read AI deal, but they're real businesses. \n\nFor the sake of this essay, let's just call them \"AI tweeners\". \n\nThere is a temptation to invest in what is new (ie the brand new AI company raising at $20-$30m post) because you're investing in a cool story & get to help bring a new company to market & call yourself the lead. \n\nBut maybe the $40m \"AI tweener\" is a better bet. By paying a slight premium, you invest in a company that's figured a lot out, has revenue, and is building in a category that likely has less competition. \n\nThe challenge with investing in the $40M post is that you likely called yourself a seed firm to all of your limited partners, so your entry price is going to look like what has historically been called a Series A. Is this strategy drift, or is it being a good investor? \n\nIf your goal is to build the highest performing portfolio, investing in \"AI tweeners\" is the part of market that is likely most undervalued right now. \n\nSo maybe you should stop calling yourself a seed fund & invest in early traction companies while the rest of the market is obsessed with finding the next hot pre-product seed deal. \n\nJust some thoughts.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"3393185261","name":"yoni rechtman","screen_name":"yrechtman","indices":[2202,2212]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990857909635518465","view_count":9799,"bookmark_count":47,"created_at":1763492488000,"favorite_count":73,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":8,"retweet_count":5,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990857909635518465","full_text":"One question that every seed investor should be asking themselves right now is whether they should be focusing more on early traction rounds, as opposed to pre-product investing. \n\nIn the past couple months, we've met a few teams raising rounds at $30M-$40M post-valuation who have real traction ($1-$4m ARR). \n\nAs a seed investor, would you rather invest in one of these rounds at $40m post or a pre-product seed round that calls itself an AI company at a $20M-$30M post? They're basically priced the same. \n\nSome of the early tractions teams call these rounds \"seed extensions,\" and others stretch it to a Series A label. \n\nFor whatever reason, they haven't been treated as \"hot companies\" by the Series A market, but they're building very solid businesses that are growing well. \n\nI haven't come up with an exact terminology for these companies. They're generally not pure-play AI deals, but are often utilizing AI in interesting ways. The headline on the deck doesn't read AI deal, but they're real businesses. \n\nFor the sake of this essay, let's just call them \"AI tweeners\". \n\nThere is a temptation to invest in what is new (ie the brand new AI company raising at $20-$30m post) because you're investing in a cool story & get to help bring a new company to market & call yourself the lead. \n\nBut maybe the $40m \"AI tweener\" is a better bet. By paying a slight premium, you invest in a company that's figured a lot out, has revenue, and is building in a category that likely has less competition. \n\nThe challenge with investing in the $40M post is that you likely called yourself a seed firm to all of your limited partners, so your entry price is going to look like what has historically been called a Series A. Is this strategy drift, or is it being a good investor? \n\nIf your goal is to build the highest performing portfolio, investing in \"AI tweeners\" is the part of market that is likely most undervalued right now. \n\nSo maybe you should stop calling yourself a seed fund & invest in early traction companies while the rest of the market is obsessed with finding the next hot pre-product seed deal. \n\nJust some thoughts.\n\nOriginally written as a response to a tweet by @yrechtman, but creating a separate essay so more people can hopefully read it.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990865081354334636","view_count":7759,"bookmark_count":10,"created_at":1763494198000,"favorite_count":68,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":17,"retweet_count":4,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990865081354334636","full_text":"I am noticing a lot of apathy and despair in the crypto community right now. This is funny to me because we should all be basking in the opportunity to actually build valuable applications and companies right now.\n\nOne of the most common complaints in prior cycles was that crypto founders didn't have a fighting chance to run the experiments that they wanted to test due to regulatory battles. \n\nIn the United States, we have a very supportive regulatory environment right now, and it is possible to be a U.S. crypto founder in categories like Defi which were previously very dicey. \n\nBut for some reason, the mood amongst founders and investors is especially solemn right now.\n\nMy take is that building products and companies that people care about is incredibly hard, especially with AI dominating the headlines. \n\nIt was easy to use regulatory constraints as an excuse in prior cycles, and now that we no longer have that issue, we have to actually go build products that people use every day & care about. \n\nAnd these products can't be another L1/L2 or some abstract technical infrastructure that increases TPS or makes blockchains cheaper. We already have that. \n\nInfra was a convenient area for investors and founders to fund and build because you could TGE and get rich & punt on building applications. \n\nBut today, you have to go build applications that people care about. That's really it. There's almost nothing else to do on the infrastructure side to run the experiments that will validate how big crypto can be. \n\nThe industry needs to stop feeling sorry for itself and go prove that the many, many billions of dollars that have gone to the industry were building towards something meaningful. Stablecoins, payments, etc. are all obvious places to build real consumer value. \n\nNow is the time.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-20","value":1,"startTime":1763510400000,"endTime":1763596800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,228],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1915059354153160706","name":"moneydevkit","screen_name":"money_dev_kit","indices":[42,56]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1991151978953789614","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/EAfA4urbR2","expanded":"https://twitter.com/nickslaney/status/1991151978953789614","display":"x.com/nickslaney/sta…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1991154186755674513","view_count":171,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763563126000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1991154186755674513","full_text":"We’re thrilled to lead the seed round for @money_dev_kit. \n\nThey broke a world record today on the same day they announced the fundraise.\n\nNow the fastest way for anyone on earth to add payments. Builders are going to love this.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-21","value":0,"startTime":1763596800000,"endTime":1763683200000,"tweets":[]}],"nlikes":[{"label":"2025-10-22","value":29817,"startTime":1761004800000,"endTime":1761091200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":true,"display_text_range":[0,270],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rPx7ztdMGQ","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1980504752829132945/photo/1","id_str":"1980501236362153984","indices":[271,294],"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G3wnYZ6WkAAmnCh.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rPx7ztdMGQ","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":12,"y":110,"h":30,"w":30}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":422,"width":750,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":420},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":422,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":370,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":211,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":422}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rPx7ztdMGQ","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1980504752829132945/photo/1","id_str":"1980501236362153984","indices":[271,294],"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G3wnYZ6WkAAmnCh.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rPx7ztdMGQ","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":12,"y":110,"h":30,"w":30}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":422,"width":750,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":420},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":422,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":370,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":211,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":422}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980504752829132945","view_count":1096466,"bookmark_count":2205,"created_at":1761024103000,"favorite_count":28909,"quote_count":298,"reply_count":660,"retweet_count":3461,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"Everyone talks about AI slop. \nNo one talks about PE (private equity) slop.\n\n- restaurants that lost their soul\n- medical practices that feel like assembly lines\n- apartment buildings designed by an Excel formula\n\nThe algorithm didn’t kill culture. The margin model did. https://t.co/rPx7ztdMGQ","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,60],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"932630991298007041","name":"litquidity","screen_name":"litcapital","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"litcapital","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980648813561008268","view_count":24455,"bookmark_count":5,"created_at":1761058450000,"favorite_count":227,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@litcapital haha that’s what I’m saying, impossible to unsee","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"932630991298007041","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980647342371213594","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,51],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1301314271989518336","name":"illiquid","screen_name":"lefttailguy","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"lefttailguy","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980629841155330197","view_count":19708,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761053927000,"favorite_count":277,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@lefttailguy artisanal content, thank you very much","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1301314271989518336","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980628461417804114","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,161],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"156765498","name":"Michael Williams","screen_name":"mxwilliams","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"mxwilliams","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980633611884970415","view_count":14727,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761054826000,"favorite_count":149,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":16,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@mxwilliams maybe they would, most ppl hate going to the dentist for a variety of reasons.\n\n5% feels for a better experience is something ppl would prob pay for.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"156765498","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980632925075894309","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,134],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"14117767","name":"Jonas 🦩","screen_name":"jonaslamis","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"jonaslamis","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980506004510085379","view_count":17431,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761024402000,"favorite_count":126,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@jonaslamis You might be right. Maybe AI slop is just the tipping point that’s making us realize how sloppy the world has always been.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"14117767","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980505576590447033","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[17,63],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1081596786073128960","name":"Old white guy","screen_name":"obrecht_michael","indices":[0,16]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"obrecht_michael","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980676318359666791","view_count":11003,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1761065008000,"favorite_count":129,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@obrecht_michael thanks for sharing, not an easy thing to solve","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1081596786073128960","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980674670094373173","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-23","value":210,"startTime":1761091200000,"endTime":1761177600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,281],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981026514079805470","view_count":25016,"bookmark_count":69,"created_at":1761148501000,"favorite_count":210,"quote_count":3,"reply_count":26,"retweet_count":24,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981026514079805470","full_text":"There is a very big difference between running a venture fund and building a venture firm. \n\nI get a lot of aspiring venture capitalists who ask me about starting their own firm, and the quick thing I tell them is that they have to love company building & operations as much as they love investing. \n\nAt the end of the day, so much of your time is spent on fundraising, recruiting, and back office. You have to really love that stuff early on (or it least be good at it) when nobody is there to help you out.\n\nIf you don’t love the non-investing stuff or have enough self-awareness to know you're not good at it, you should definitely consider joining a platform. I have friends who are amazingly talented who have decided they only want to focus on investing, and they are very happy & many make a ton of money too. \n\nEasy to run a fund. Much harder to build a firm.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,237],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"935658795098832896","name":"Ibrahim S.","screen_name":"IbrahimS15","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"IbrahimS15","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980849065622683933","view_count":122,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761106194000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980666971650945285","full_text":"@IbrahimS15 This is the single best feedback from an interviewer that I've ever seen. I know it's hard to get past the rejection and the what-ifs of the opportunity, but use this as motivation, and you will do great things. Best of luck.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"935658795098832896","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980666971650945285","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-24","value":99,"startTime":1761177600000,"endTime":1761264000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981361260852892174","view_count":56764,"bookmark_count":42,"created_at":1761228311000,"favorite_count":96,"quote_count":5,"reply_count":20,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981361260852892174","full_text":"The death of SaaS has been overstated. \n\nWhen VCs or industry analysts say that SaaS is dead, they replace the word SaaS with AI agents or some other descriptor for B2B software.\n\nHuman addiction to technology is well known in the consumer space, and the same applies for anything in the enterprise. \n\nEnterprises are addicted to software, and whether the user is human or an agent doesn't matter. At the end of the day, there will always be a top 1% of founders and companies who design their software in a superior way to their competitors, and those will be massive companies where the TAM is even bigger than what was formerly called SaaS.\n\nSoftware is here to stay (with much more powerful capabilities!), which is such an obvious thing to state yet I'm hearing otherwise from my peers.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[9,288],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"6228302","name":"Sheel Mohnot","screen_name":"pitdesi","indices":[0,8]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"pitdesi","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981402156306760016","view_count":414,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761238061000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981381724702724256","full_text":"This is very true. \n\nI think from the outside, folks who hear this mistake the evolving business model with the death of an entire category of software.\n\nOrganizations are becoming even more software-obsessed, and there is a new generation of products that are quickly displacing incumbents. \n\nSoftware is obviously becoming easier to build, but the opportunity for venture capitalists is still massive. \n\nThese things feel so obvious to type, but you'd be surprised at how many conversations I have that revolve around this very topic.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"6228302","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981381724702724256","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[23,113],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"829946137","name":"Itai | dynamic.xyz","screen_name":"turbahn","indices":[0,8]},{"id_str":"1135606000868872192","name":"Fireblocks","screen_name":"FireblocksHQ","indices":[9,22]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"turbahn","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981417837395923151","view_count":264,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761241800000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981393151530254774","full_text":"@turbahn @FireblocksHQ Congrats, have loved working with you and the team the last few years. First class always.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"829946137","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981393151530254774","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-25","value":406,"startTime":1761264000000,"endTime":1761350400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981703025946501274","view_count":70,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761309794000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981703025946501274","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else you'll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should!), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. These are some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy and pursue the deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981703548401520684","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761309918000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981703548401520684","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else you'll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should!), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. These investments will stand out in your data room so you might as well get ahead of those conversations and explain your underwriting logic. \n\nThese are also some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy & pursue the really special deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981704081166016556","view_count":57,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761310045000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981704081166016556","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else you'll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. Those investments will stand out in your data room so you might as well get ahead of those conversations and explain your underwriting logic. \n\nThese are also some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy & pursue the really special deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981709123755610507","view_count":199549,"bookmark_count":256,"created_at":1761311248000,"favorite_count":346,"quote_count":18,"reply_count":23,"retweet_count":25,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else it’ll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. Those investments will stand out in your data room so you might as well get ahead of those conversations and explain your underwriting logic. \n\nThese are also some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy & pursue the really special deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,277],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"811350","name":"Alexis Ohanian 🗽","screen_name":"alexisohanian","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"alexisohanian","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981768701885264380","view_count":4259,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761325452000,"favorite_count":24,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@alexisohanian 100% true. I find that newer managers are more risk-averse to exceptions because they don't want to get fired by their LPs. If you study the history of venture capital, many of the best firms today became franchises in critical moments when they made exceptions.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"811350","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981767253252358505","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,286],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"69619073","name":"Andrew D'Souza","screen_name":"andrewdsouza","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"andrewdsouza","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981777971267743913","view_count":1943,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761327662000,"favorite_count":15,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@andrewdsouza Most LPAs don’t have strict parameters around valuations.\n\nThey more often have definitions around:\n\n- what % of fund can go to a single investment \n\n- recycling % \n\n- deployment period \n\nMost of the time these exceptions aren’t made because GPs are scared of being wrong.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"69619073","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981777001078788107","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,220],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1945812818932170753","name":"Neo","screen_name":"neo3141111","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"neo3141111","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981736892283469930","view_count":1741,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761317868000,"favorite_count":15,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@neo3141111 You could look at a long list of hundreds of GPs who have world class track records that have invested after the pre-seed. A very easy list of people to study would be folks like Peter Thiel, Fred Wilson, etc","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1945812818932170753","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981734983279562826","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,23],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"20397708","name":"Niki Scevak","screen_name":"nikiscevak","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"nikiscevak","lang":"fr","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981860895103025450","view_count":1021,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761347433000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@nikiscevak Raise in SF","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"20397708","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981860111879672307","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,45],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"75409972","name":"Josh Porter","screen_name":"joshdotporter","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"joshdotporter","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981818015080673366","view_count":950,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761337209000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@joshdotporter ty great seeing you this week!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"75409972","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981812251968545118","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,25],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1764321378507931648","name":"Rohan","screen_name":"proxy_vector","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"proxy_vector","lang":"ca","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981757033461481979","view_count":933,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761322670000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@proxy_vector 100 percent","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1764321378507931648","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981748076227301597","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,294],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"175934436","name":"Paul Yacoubian","screen_name":"PaulYacoubian","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"PaulYacoubian","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981706003306746307","view_count":1639,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761310504000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981704081166016556","full_text":"Ha, this is a dangerous game to play because exit value is the model input that tends to be the most hand-wavy. It's really easy to change the exit value from $10B to $20B and have your entire model look like a work of art.\n\nI find that newer investors overestimate exit value on their investment proposals, and that the model assumption is normally tied to a 1x RTF (return the fund) outcome when your winners should math out to outcomes that are far greater like 3x-5x net or above. \n\nGetting the RTF model to make sense is becoming harder to build as entry prices become higher. The math just doesn't math out most of the time. So some just change that exit value to $1T and do the deal :)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"175934436","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981704634734711025","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-26","value":3,"startTime":1761350400000,"endTime":1761436800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,132],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"6781512","name":"Martin Tobias (Pre-Seed VC)","screen_name":"MartinGTobias","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"MartinGTobias","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982144968669135150","view_count":658,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761415161000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@MartinGTobias 100%. Fully believe that an 80/20 core vs. \"breaking the rules\" barbell strategy is the best for an early-stage firm.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"6781512","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1982141432950391154","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-27","value":154,"startTime":1761436800000,"endTime":1761523200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982472740914540939","view_count":880,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1761493308000,"favorite_count":7,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982472740914540939","full_text":"One of the most common questions you’ll get when fundraising for a venture fund is about sourcing. \n\nLPs are ultimately buying into your thesis and your access, so it makes sense that sourcing is one of the first questions.\n\nThe question is hard to answer because sourcing usually comes from many different channels & almost every VC believes their approach is better than their peers’.\n\nI can’t even imagine how confusing it must be for an LP who covers venture as part of a broader portfolio to figure out what’s real and what’s not. They get pitched by hundreds of managers a year, all claiming the same “proprietary deal flow” story.\n\nSo I figured I’d write a quick note on how I think about sourcing.\n\nI like to compare sourcing to multi-channel marketing. You have multiple inputs driving top of funnel, and ideally three or four strategies that create a sourcing flywheel.\n\nIt sometimes feels like LPs are searching for a single channel they can bring to their IC and say, “Look, they have a better sourcing engine.” But relying on one channel is risky. The game changes & so do relationships and competition.\n\nSourcing is never a magic bullet. Despite the debates, I don’t believe anyone has a true proprietary sourcing advantage beyond their reputation.\n\nSpeaking of proprietary networks... \n\nI met with a well-known GP recently who is now investing in a small number of funds & he asked which proprietary networks we have access to. It was a fair question, but I pushed back bc there are no truly proprietary networks in venture anymore.\n\nTake YC, for example. Founders could easily join other accelerators or raise the traditional way, but they choose YC because they trust it will get them further, faster. That trust is the differentiator.\n\nOr look at the handful of firms that have built entire franchises by backing Elon again and again - SpaceX, Tesla, The Boring Company, etc. The sourcing channel is no secret; the access is. And that access comes from relationships earned over decades.\n\nEveryone’s searching for a sourcing “hack.” The truth is, there isn’t one. The only real proprietary network in venture is your reputation. \n\nSo when LPs ask about sourcing, I try to reframe the question. It’s not where we find companies but it’s why the best founders choose to work with us once they’re found. \n\nThat’s the real edge, and it’s built over years, not through a single channel or campaign.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982476724895113555","view_count":17942,"bookmark_count":127,"created_at":1761494258000,"favorite_count":147,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":8,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982476724895113555","full_text":"One of the most common questions you’ll get when fundraising for a venture fund is about sourcing. \n\nLPs are ultimately buying into your thesis and your access, so it makes sense that sourcing is one of the first questions.\n\nThe question is hard to answer because sourcing usually comes from many different channels & almost every VC believes their approach is better than their peers’.\n\nI can’t even imagine how confusing it must be for an LP who covers venture as part of a broader portfolio to figure out what’s real and what’s not. They get pitched by hundreds of managers a year, all claiming the same “proprietary deal flow” story.\n\nSo I figured I’d write a quick note on how I think about sourcing.\n\nI like to compare sourcing to multi-channel marketing. You have multiple inputs driving top of funnel, and ideally three or four strategies that create a sourcing flywheel.\n\nIt sometimes feels like LPs are searching for a single channel they can bring to their IC and say, “Look, they have a better sourcing engine.” But relying on one channel is risky. The game changes & so do relationships and competition.\n\nSourcing is never a magic bullet. Despite the debates, I don’t believe anyone has a true proprietary sourcing advantage beyond their reputation.\n\nSpeaking of proprietary networks... \n\nI met with a well-known GP recently who is now investing in a small number of funds & he asked which proprietary networks we have access to. It was a fair question, but I pushed back bc there are no truly proprietary networks in venture anymore.\n\nTake YC. Founders could easily join other accelerators or raise the traditional way, but they choose YC because they trust it will get them further, faster. YC doesn’t have a proprietary network - it has a brand that founders want to be associated with. They trust YC to be the best Day 1 partner to help them build something valuable.\n\nWhat’s even more interesting is what happens after YC. Because it’s such an efficient marketplace, every venture firm has access to the same company list - it’s one of the most transparent markets in venture. We all know each batch will include a handful of outliers. None of that is proprietary sourcing. The real differentiation is in how firms underwrite conviction early and actually win those deals.\n\nOr look at the handful of firms that have built entire franchises by backing Elon again and again - SpaceX, Tesla, The Boring Company, etc. The sourcing channel is no secret; the access is. And that access comes from relationships earned over decades.\n\nEveryone’s searching for a sourcing “hack.” The truth is, there isn’t one. The only real proprietary network in venture is your reputation. \n\nSo when LPs ask about sourcing, I try to reframe the question. It’s not where we find companies but it’s why the best founders choose to work with us once they’re found. \n\nThat’s the real edge, and it’s built over years, not through a single channel or campaign.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-28","value":26,"startTime":1761523200000,"endTime":1761609600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,133],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982861967221240040","view_count":417,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761586107000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982861967221240040","full_text":"Every airport lounge is like:\n\n“Our menu is thoughtfully curated by award-winning chef _______” with some random I've never heard of.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982863864191713386","view_count":3987,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761586559000,"favorite_count":21,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982863864191713386","full_text":"Every airport lounge is like:\n\n“Our menu is thoughtfully curated by award-winning chef ____” with some random I've never heard of.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-29","value":0,"startTime":1761609600000,"endTime":1761696000000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-30","value":225,"startTime":1761696000000,"endTime":1761782400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983566611404521838","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761754107000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983566611404521838","full_text":"I had a funny conversation with an LP a couple weeks back where he said, \"If I hear another venture capitalist say the words 'prepared mind' again, I will go crazy.\" \n\nThere are many terms like this that get repeated in GP land, especially during AGM season when we’re all bumping into each other often: \n\n • Thesis-driven\n • Thematic \n • Research-driven\n • Prepared mind\n • First principles\n\nThe list goes on. \n\nAs a starting point, if you're an investor, you should absolutely be all these things. \n\nYour job is to develop a point of view on the world, identify a set of problems that you think will become big markets, and find the best founders to solve those problems.\n\nThe concept of a prepared mind has mostly been co-opted for fundraising purposes in venture capital, but the concept is still important to practice and understand. \n\nAt its core, a prepared mind means that you have spent enough time in a given market to know when you meet a founder who is solving the right problem at the right time.\n\nThis is literally the job of an investor, so every single venture capitalist should have a prepared mind. \n\nAnyways, enough on this topic for now. I have a meeting with an LP, and I'm going into it with a prepared mind ;)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983567542862970996","view_count":18,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761754329000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983567542862970996","full_text":"I had a funny conversation with an LP a couple weeks back where he said, \"If I hear another venture capitalist say the words 'prepared mind' again, I will go crazy.\" \n\nThere are many terms like this that get repeated in GP land, especially during AGM season when we’re all bumping into each other often: \n\n • Thesis-driven\n • Thematic \n • Research-driven\n • Prepared mind\n • First principles\n\nThe list goes on. \n\nAs a starting point, if you're an investor, you should absolutely practice all these things, but in 99% of cases this isn’t a differentiated approach. \n\nYour job is to develop a point of view on the world, identify a set of problems that you think will become big markets, and find the best founders to solve those problems.\n\nCall it whatever you want but that’s what great investors do. \n\nThe concept of a prepared mind has mostly been co-opted for fundraising purposes in venture capital, but the concept is still important to practice and understand. \n\nAt its core, a prepared mind means that you have spent enough time in a given market to know when you meet a founder who is solving the right problem at the right time.\n\nThis is literally the job of an investor, so every single venture capitalist should have a prepared mind. \n\nAnyways, enough on this topic for now. I have a meeting with an LP, and I'm going into it with a prepared mind ;)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983568035559419942","view_count":11074,"bookmark_count":34,"created_at":1761754447000,"favorite_count":83,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":10,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983568035559419942","full_text":"I had a fun conversation with an LP a couple weeks back where he said, \"If I hear another venture capitalist say the words 'prepared mind' again, I will go crazy.\" \n\nThere are many terms like this that get repeated in GP land, especially during AGM season when we’re all bumping into each other often: \n\n • Thesis-driven\n • Thematic \n • Research-driven\n • Prepared mind\n • First principles\n\nThe list goes on. \n\nAs a starting point, if you're an investor, you should absolutely practice all these things, but in 99% of cases this isn’t a differentiated approach. \n\nBut yes, your job is to develop a point of view on the world, identify a set of problems that you think will become big markets, and find the best founders to solve those problems.\n\nCall it whatever you want but that’s what great investors do. \n\nThe concept of a prepared mind has mostly been co-opted for fundraising purposes in venture capital, but it’s still important to practice and understand. \n\nAt its core, a prepared mind means that you have spent enough time in a given market to know when you meet a founder who is solving the right problem at the right time.\n\nThis is literally the job of an investor, so every single venture capitalist should have a prepared mind. \n\nAnyways, enough on this topic for now. I have a meeting with an LP, and I'm going into it with a prepared mind ;)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,295],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983615157277487153","view_count":21522,"bookmark_count":56,"created_at":1761765681000,"favorite_count":73,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":13,"retweet_count":8,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983615157277487153","full_text":"Engagement -> Retention -> Monetization used to be the funnel of building products & companies. \n\nMonetization -> Engagement -> Retention is the order that I'm seeing founders prioritize today in the AI age.\n\nI love monetization & spent 5 years of my life waking up every day trying to increase subs/a la carte purchases while leading the revenue team at the top grossing app in the world. \n\nSo you would think I'd agree that monetization is what everybody should spend their time thinking about, but the answer is far more nuanced. \n\nWe hear the words \"Vibe Revenue\" or \"Experimental Revenue\" being thrown out a lot this year in podcasts and newsletters, and those are accurate terms to describe what so much of monetization feels like today. \n\nIn prior cycles, founders had to earn the right to focus on monetization by building a great product first. \n\nA great product can be subjective - we use the words 'taste' and 'craft' a lot, but you can also measure it by looking first at engagement & then studying retention. \n\nThe problem with focusing on monetization too early is that you create a false sense of success, especially if you haven't seen renewal cycles yet. \n\nI am guessing there is a significant percentage of new companies who stare at their engagement and retention data all day long (which might be going up & to the right) & know there are deep flaws in their product. \n\nBut they lean on monetization ($0-$10m in a year!) to make it seem like they've found product-market fit with their own teams & investors. \n\nIt's a lot of fun to make money. I had the most fun ever in my operating career leading revenue teams. It can be addicting at times. \n\nBut the only reason we became the top-grossing app in the world is because we had best-in-class engagement and retention metrics for our category. We earned the right to monetize. \n\nI hope we get back to a world where everything starts with engagement and retention. Then we can talk about revenue.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,96],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1983617932791050265","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/voxOtB2akT","expanded":"https://twitter.com/spenserskates/status/1983617932791050265","display":"x.com/spenserskates/…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983637002928189443","view_count":14244,"bookmark_count":8,"created_at":1761770890000,"favorite_count":69,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":6,"retweet_count":4,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983637002928189443","full_text":"100%. The feature-vs-company blur might be the defining question of this AI cycle for investors.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-31","value":328,"startTime":1761782400000,"endTime":1761868800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,279],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1219566488325017602","name":"Supabase","screen_name":"supabase","indices":[776,785]},{"id_str":"24486938","name":"Nikhil Basu Trivedi","screen_name":"nbt","indices":[2899,2903]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983834443648278593","view_count":148751,"bookmark_count":122,"created_at":1761817963000,"favorite_count":237,"quote_count":6,"reply_count":47,"retweet_count":13,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"I had a conversation with an investor yesterday who claimed there hasn’t been a hit consumer app in over five years.\n\nMy response: ChatGPT is a consumer app.\n\nHe pushed back saying “It started as a research lab, not a consumer company.”\n\nThat convo made me realize how broken our definition of “consumer” has become.\n\nYears ago, I invested in Superhuman after watching my friends (and my Twitter feed) rave about it nonstop. At the time, I was working at a consumer company, yet I never questioned whether Superhuman was “consumer” or not.\n\nPeople love Superhuman for both personal and work use & it’s a daily habit with engagement and retention stronger than most social apps. If that’s not consumer behavior, what is?\n\nThis might sound surprising to some, but I also viewed @supabase from a consumer lens when we invested in the pre-seed, despite it being an open source dev tool. More than the underlying technology, I was most fascinated by the bottoms up nature of how developers were adopting the database and how passionate the early community was about the product.\n\nOpen source projects arguably have stronger communities than most consumer products, and the behaviors are social by nature. They have some of most interesting network effects as every incremental developer makes the project stronger. This aligns perfectly with the classic definition of network effects. \n\nI’ve also always believed that products built by product-first founders, designed for broad, personal use should be considered consumer products. \n\nBut somewhere along the way, we invented the term prosumer, and it’s confused everyone. \n\nIt made these products sound like mini-enterprise tools, which undersells that they’re designed for mass-market behaviors wrapped in productivity.\n\nBy that logic, Superhuman, ChatGPT, Perplexity, and a growing list of “non-consumer” tools are absolutely consumer products.\n\nChatGPT alone has over 750 million weekly active users which is mainstream adoption by any definition. And as it evolves into agentic e-commerce and video gen tools like Sora, its use cases are only getting more personal.\n\nWhy does this matter?\n\nBecause category definitions drive fundraising.\n\nIf you’re a founder pitching a “consumer” product, your pool of potential investors shrinks dramatically. If you just look at how venture firms organize internally, they often literally split their teams by enterprise and consumer, which makes no sense to me. \n\nThe same goes for VCs pitching LPs where consumer is still viewed as a cyclical category. If you send a consumer venture fund deck to a large group of LPs, many categorically wouldn't take your pitch. \n\nIn reality “consumer” today looks nothing like “social, local, mobile” which is how so many people think of consumer. \n\nWork and life are blending, and the products we use every day at home & at work don’t fit cleanly into old boxes.\n\nMy friend @nbt once wrote about the consumerization of the enterprise saying:\n\n“Amazon the largest e-commerce (consumer!) company in the world, offers Amazon Web Services, the largest cloud services (enterprise!) business in the world.\n\nNVIDIA, the largest personal computer graphics (consumer!) company in the world, offers graphics processing units (GPUs) for artificial intelligence applications (enterprise!), and has seen its market cap grow 20X in the past decade since this dual focus.”\n\nThe next generation of breakout apps won’t be defined by where they’re used, but by how deeply they integrate into daily life.\n\nWe’re in the golden age of consumer products. And yes, ChatGPT counts.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,172],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1542601224654127105","name":"Helius","screen_name":"heliuslabs","indices":[11,22]},{"id_str":"1309886201944473600","name":"mert | helius.dev","screen_name":"0xMert_","indices":[74,82]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1983479334947176680","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/LIavHNiSYf","expanded":"https://twitter.com/0xMert_/status/1983479334947176680","display":"x.com/0xMert_/status…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983884450229579777","view_count":11583,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1761829886000,"favorite_count":48,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":5,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983884450229579777","full_text":"We had our @heliuslabs board meeting yesterday. \n\nThe engineering pace of @0xMert_ and the entire team is wild right now.\n\nAnd the roadmap is about to get VERY interesting.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,279],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/uNgGonZr3V","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1983891914207469656/photo/1","id_str":"1983891704093798401","indices":[280,303],"media_key":"3_1983891704093798401","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4gy_mda8AE6LL8.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/uNgGonZr3V","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":217,"y":53,"h":88,"w":88}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":872,"w":766,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":872,"w":766,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":680,"w":597,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":872,"width":766,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":429},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":766},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":765,"h":872},{"x":152,"y":0,"w":436,"h":872},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":872}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1983891704093798401"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/uNgGonZr3V","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1983891914207469656/photo/1","id_str":"1983891704093798401","indices":[280,303],"media_key":"3_1983891704093798401","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4gy_mda8AE6LL8.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/uNgGonZr3V","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":217,"y":53,"h":88,"w":88}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":872,"w":766,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":872,"w":766,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":680,"w":597,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":872,"width":766,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":429},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":766},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":765,"h":872},{"x":152,"y":0,"w":436,"h":872},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":872}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1983891704093798401"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983891914207469656","view_count":5435,"bookmark_count":19,"created_at":1761831665000,"favorite_count":24,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983891914207469656","full_text":"I’ve been reading \"Who Knew\" by Barry Diller this week. \n\nI had the chance to meet Barry twice during my early days at Tinder.\n\nThe first time was three days before Christmas in 2015. I was still new at the company and trying to make a name for myself, so I showed up on December 22nd with just a few others.\n\n“Who’s that guy in the tracksuit?” one of our youngest engineers asked, looking up from his monitor.\n\nI glanced over and saw Barry Diller, owner of IAC and one of Tinder’s biggest shareholders.\n\nI didn’t know it at the time, but Barry (then 75 years old) had a tradition of visiting the Tinder office right before Christmas every year. He’d walk the floor asking questions, genuinely curious about what everyone was building.\n\nI watched him approach one of our engineers and ask, “What are you working on?”\n\nThe engineer started explaining what he was doing in very technical terms, and Barry listened without interrupting. I don’t think the engineer knew who he was because if he did, I’m pretty sure he would’ve been a lot more nervous explaining his code!\n\nA year later, in 2016, I made sure to be in the office those same few days before Christmas. The office was mostly empty again and we had just moved into a much larger space.\n\nSure enough, the guy in the tracksuit showed up again, right on cue. Barry Diller.\n\nHe made his rounds, saying hello and asking the few of us still in the office the same question: “What are you working on?”\n\nOne of the central themes of \"Who Knew\" and of Barry’s career is his obsession with understanding how things work at the most fundamental level:\n\n\"Only if I slowed everything down could I begin to understand all the parts and then try to rearrange them into something coherent. I tend to make things worse in the beginning as I fumble around trying to get to basic truths. Instinct, which I prize almost all else, doesn’t work very well for me in abstruse matters.\n\nI have to get to the core DNA on any matter, its logical essence, before I can add anything of value. This takes a lot of time, often to the irritation of faster thinkers, but when it does crystallize, I can’t be deterred.\n\nI listen with an extra ear, highly attuned to hear a new truth among the cacophony of voices in the room. When I catch that note, no matter what I might have thought before, I’ll change course in a second.\n\nIf I’ve ever had any kind of secret sauce, it’s the ability to hear conflicting, creative ideas bombarded around the room and extract something valuable.\n\nRecently in a meeting, someone complained that I wasn’t being consistent. I replied that I’m never consistent; I’ll turn on a dime if I hear a better truth.” \n- (Barry Diller, Who Knew)\n\nLooking back, I realize that when he asked what we were building, it wasn’t about oversight or management control. It was pure curiosity.\n\nMost leaders want to look smart. Barry wanted to get smart and understand the smallest molecule of what we were building, even on the sleepy days before Christmas.\n\nThe best investors and leaders don’t chase outcomes. They want to understand the wiring underneath.\n\nShow up, ask questions & keep asking until it makes sense. The tracksuit is optional.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[11,161],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"441679284","name":"brett goldstein","screen_name":"thatguybg","indices":[0,10]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"thatguybg","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983843170493382696","view_count":778,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761820044000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@thatguybg Most consumer apps have evolved their business models to subscriptions (same as bottoms up enterprise) and most have tiered pricing at this point too.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"441679284","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983842584788398438","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,293],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"13955342","name":"Trace Vertical Ai Cohen","screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983868789059154119","view_count":518,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761826152000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@Trace_Cohen 100%. On Supabase, they had a cultish community who loved the product before the pre-seed.\n\nAs an investor who does enterprise & consumer like myself, it was helpful to underwrite through a consumer lens.\n\nNow it's a mass market developer product selling to large enterprises.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"13955342","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983867417655750680","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[11,110],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1979921","name":"Josh Elman","screen_name":"joshelman","indices":[0,10]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"joshelman","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983892716288405682","view_count":930,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761831857000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@joshelman 100%. Also fwiw I think Josh Elman is invested in almost all the best consumer apps of his vintage!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1979921","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983892303245885616","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,85],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"35647451","name":"Turner Novak 🍌🧢","screen_name":"TurnerNovak","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"TurnerNovak","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983927717734047759","view_count":667,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761840202000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@TurnerNovak Haha! This was before i got pitched because someone thought I was an LP.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"35647451","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983926158862262518","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,43],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1054947848","name":"Nicole Priel","screen_name":"smallbigtalk","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"smallbigtalk","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983846327105544322","view_count":212,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761820797000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@smallbigtalk would love to read the thesis","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1054947848","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983846102391791901","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,269],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"3014388155","name":"Jeddi","screen_name":"antinertia","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"antinertia","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983857862607827087","view_count":232,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761823547000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@antinertia Prosumer is what they’ve called it historically but those companies tend to get discounted in fundraising from what I’ve seen.\n\nProbably because investors view them as being “in between” both markets. \n\nSo I don’t advise calling yourself a prosumer company.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"3014388155","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983857075298943121","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,32],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"41771957","name":"Ryan Morris","screen_name":"RyanMorris55","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"RyanMorris55","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983893392791925073","view_count":161,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761832018000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@RyanMorris55 Thank you brother!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"41771957","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983893276349415508","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,179],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"2363641","name":"jason yeh","screen_name":"jasonoliver","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"jasonoliver","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983952515470352895","view_count":431,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761846114000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@jasonoliver 100%. And shopping is coming fast with agentic e-commerce. ChatGPT (and its competitors) will end up owning dominant market share across multiple consumer categories.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"2363641","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983951551866831342","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[9,227],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"150388200","name":"Warren Shaeffer","screen_name":"wwshaef","indices":[0,8]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"wwshaef","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983946533159772285","view_count":272,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761844688000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@wwshaef I agree with your definition. Simple is very useful. \n\nMost bottoms-up software has consumer overlap. \n\nProductivity Software is a decent label but tends to devalue companies because there haven’t been many huge exits.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"150388200","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983945638405611746","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-01","value":9,"startTime":1761868800000,"endTime":1761955200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,124],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"39191312","name":"Kirsten Green","screen_name":"kirstenagreen","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"kirstenagreen","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1984113931565330944","view_count":863,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761884598000,"favorite_count":7,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1984107536052842496","full_text":"@kirstenagreen “ChatGPT wasn’t necessarily designed as a consumer product, but consumers claimed it anyway.”\n\nExactly right.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"39191312","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1984107536052842496","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[7,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"22961818","name":"Todd Jackson","screen_name":"tjack","indices":[0,6]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"tjack","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1984358200276382017","view_count":247,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761942837000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@tjack That's a great list, and 100% agree.\n\nConsumer gets anchored on social and things like DTC which is an outdated definition.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"22961818","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1984344313393004585","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-02","value":66,"startTime":1761955200000,"endTime":1762041600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/cf2xeuTten","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1984669264100618636/photo/1","id_str":"1984666463513559043","indices":[277,300],"media_key":"3_1984666463513559043","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4rzoiNbQAMI02X.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/cf2xeuTten","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1067,"w":1600,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":800,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":453,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":1067,"width":1600,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":72,"w":1600,"h":896},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1067,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":936,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":534,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1600,"h":1067}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1984666463513559043"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1718560501825933312","name":"Discipulus Ventures","screen_name":"DiscipulusVent","indices":[38,53]},{"id_str":"1213544133878370304","name":"Jakob Diepenbrock","screen_name":"jakobdiepen","indices":[73,85]},{"id_str":"1718560501825933312","name":"Discipulus Ventures","screen_name":"DiscipulusVent","indices":[38,53]},{"id_str":"1213544133878370304","name":"Jakob Diepenbrock","screen_name":"jakobdiepen","indices":[73,85]},{"id_str":"1333613797907582976","name":"Augustus Doricko","screen_name":"ADoricko","indices":[519,528]},{"id_str":"1716643091137056768","name":"Rainmaker Technology Corporation","screen_name":"RainmakerCorp","indices":[534,548]},{"id_str":"1152136922694766593","name":"Ted Feldmann","screen_name":"teddyfeld","indices":[550,560]},{"id_str":"1843811438332391427","name":"Durin","screen_name":"DurinMining","indices":[566,578]},{"id_str":"1435266698701991936","name":"Isaiah Taylor - 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But when I walked through the doors, I realized it wasn’t just a Bay Area thing. The room was packed with investors from all over the country who’d made the same trip. Clearly, something real is happening here.\n\nThe day started with a panel with @ADoricko from @RainmakerCorp, @teddyfeld from @DurinMining (Ch. 1 portfolio company), and @isaiah_p_taylor from @valaratomics along with @jakobdiepen - who gave a quick history lesson on El Segundo’s roots.\n\nBefore World War II, this city was home to Douglas Aircraft, builder of the SBD Dauntless dive bomber and a symbol of American industrial strength. It’s no accident that so many “America First” companies are being built here again. Founders in El Segundo are carrying that legacy forward.\n\nThey showed a map of the current startup ecosystem, which is 55+ companies, and most of them have come into existence since 2023. \n\nI know 55 companies doesn't sound like a huge number, but as you think about the venture capital interest and momentum that El Segundo has, it's easy to imagine that number becoming 100’s and 1000’s in years to come in the city and surrounding areas. \n\nOne of the other most interesting messages was how El Segundo is evolving from being a bit of a meme (which was very intentional to get people to pay attention) to now deploying products in the physical world. \n\nAugustus from Rainmaker had just gotten back from a trip to Oregon where they deployed rain the prior day (I believe he said the cloud seeding operation was 100m+ gallons). \n\nTed from Durin had recently successfully completed his first drilling operation in Nevada. Both companies have done so on modest budgets, and the founders challenged the idea that hard tech is as capital-intensive as most venture capitalists think. \n\nThe demo day featured ten companies spanning a wide range of sectors, all united around one core theme: strengthening America.\n\nThese founders are tackling hard, meaningful problems in areas like energy, autonomous manufacturing, commodity trading, heavy equipment procurement, autonomous farming, and oil and gas.\n\nIt’s worth noting that many of the companies aren’t pure hardware plays. Some are software-first, and others are software-enabled hardware, which, frankly, is what all hardware is becoming.\n\nMy takeaway is that there doesn’t need to be such a hard divide between hardware and software investors. These worlds are starting to blend, and I expect that collaboration to accelerate over the next few years.\n\nWhat’s clear is that El Segundo is here to stay & that @DiscipulusVent is building something special (I’m a proud LP in the fund). The founders here are working on serious problems, and the momentum is real. I’d bet the next demo day will draw an even bigger crowd of investors from across the country.\n\nVery bullish on El Segundo & the next chapter for LA tech.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-03","value":21,"startTime":1762041600000,"endTime":1762128000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,277],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1984846679720542704","view_count":2379,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1762059299000,"favorite_count":21,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":6,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1984846679720542704","full_text":"I grew up in the Bay Area as a Giants fan, but now live in Los Angeles and goes without saying, this city earned a championship this year. Congratulations to the Dodgers.\n\nFor anyone who’s been here, 2025 has been a brutal year for Los Angeles. The January 7th fires marked the start of years of loss and rebuilding. Tonight’s win gives people here something to rally around, something that actually feels good again.\n\nSports have a way of healing pain and heartbreak. Being in L.A. tonight feels like the city finally got a moment of relief.\n\nCongratulations to the Dodgers and to Los Angeles.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-04","value":0,"startTime":1762128000000,"endTime":1762214400000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-05","value":26,"startTime":1762214400000,"endTime":1762300800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,54],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1985639448785174836","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/8rm1V9sGlK","expanded":"https://twitter.com/uialexk/status/1985639448785174836","display":"x.com/uialexk/status…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1985707818230452710","view_count":9198,"bookmark_count":5,"created_at":1762264611000,"favorite_count":26,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1985707818230452710","full_text":"We have entered the large narrow sans serif slop phase","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,291],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1457278696931405828","name":"rosie (🔟/🔟)","screen_name":"therosieum","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"therosieum","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1985840026744189139","view_count":22,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762296132000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1984987750647333350","full_text":"This was a great post.\n\n“The problem is, you can’t build anything meaningful in 18 months. Real infrastructure takes at least 3–5 years. Real product-market fit requires iteration over years, not quarters.”\n\nThat said, I actually think those timelines are compressing.\n\nInfra can now be built in 1–2 years, and PMF can happen in weeks or months for strong applications.\n\nWe just need more original ideas - not the 75th prediction market.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1457278696931405828","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1984987750647333350","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-06","value":0,"startTime":1762300800000,"endTime":1762387200000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-07","value":27,"startTime":1762387200000,"endTime":1762473600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,134],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"768929915844513792","name":"Jamesin Seidel","screen_name":"seidtweets","indices":[123,134]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1986437434213544227","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/XjktPxYNjP","expanded":"https://twitter.com/viraj__acharya/status/1986437434213544227","display":"x.com/viraj__acharya…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986494295663386907","view_count":4971,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762452122000,"favorite_count":9,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986494295663386907","full_text":"Jamesin killed it as always.\n\nThe best venture firms earn the right to be “partners” & not just investors. \n\nWell done @seidtweets","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"44196397","name":"Elon Musk","screen_name":"elonmusk","indices":[64,73]},{"id_str":"44196397","name":"Elon Musk","screen_name":"elonmusk","indices":[64,73]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986557513740001382","view_count":3764,"bookmark_count":4,"created_at":1762467194000,"favorite_count":18,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986557513740001382","full_text":"Tesla AGM right now is all about the robots 🤖\nA few quotes from @elonmusk:\n\nOn scale:\n“Optimus is going to be the biggest product of all time. Bigger than cell phones. Bigger than anything else.”\n\nOn use cases:\n“There will be 3–5 industrial robots for every personal robot.”\n\nOn speed:\n“We’re going to launch the fastest production ramp of any large manufactured product, starting with a million-unit per year production line in Fremont.”\n\nRobots aren’t coming. They’re already here.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-08","value":111,"startTime":1762473600000,"endTime":1762560000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986839703291896042","view_count":9,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762534473000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986839703291896042","full_text":"The “hype video” startup trend will fade, just like every other form of attention arbitrage.\n\nI say that as someone who actually went to film school and loves video. But we’ve reached the point where agencies are producing hype videos for fundraising rounds just to trigger VC FOMO.\n\nVirality has never been easier to manufacture, or shorter-lived.\n\nSpending $25K on a product video might make sense from a valuation or dilution standpoint. But is that really the culture you want to build?\n\nAnd when the investors who FOMO’d into your round realize the growth story doesn’t hold up, how do you think that plays out?\n\nBuild great products. The hype video era is already getting stale.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986841507282964826","view_count":113,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1762534903000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986841507282964826","full_text":"The “hype video” startup trend will fade, just like every other form of attention arbitrage.\n\nI say that as someone who actually went to film school and loves video. But we’ve reached the point where agencies are producing hype videos for fundraising rounds just to trigger VC fomo. \n\nIt’s now part of the fundraising playbook:\n\nMake a pitch deck. Make a hype video. Go a little bit viral. Rinse and repeat.\n\nVirality has never been easier to manufacture, but it’s also never been shorter-lived.\n\nSpending $25K on a product video might make sense from a valuation or dilution standpoint. But is that really the culture you want to build?\n\nAnd when the investors who FOMO’d into your round realize the growth story doesn’t hold up, how do you think that plays out?\n\nBuild great products that solve real problems. The hype video era is already stale.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,275],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986848712908546121","view_count":18228,"bookmark_count":32,"created_at":1762536621000,"favorite_count":92,"quote_count":7,"reply_count":13,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986848712908546121","full_text":"The “hype video” startup trend will fade, just like every other form of attention arbitrage.\n\nI say that as someone who actually went to film school and loves video. But we’ve reached the point where agencies are producing hype videos for fundraising rounds just to create VC fomo. \n\nIt’s now part of the fundraising playbook:\n\nMake a pitch deck. Make a hype video. Go a little bit viral. Rinse & repeat.\n\nVirality has never been easier to manufacture, but it’s also never been shorter-lived. The investors you actually want around for the next decade can tell the difference.\n\nSpending $25K on a product video might make sense from a valuation or dilution standpoint. But is that really the culture you want to build?\n\nAnd when the investors who FOMO’d into your round realize the growth story doesn’t hold up, how do you think that plays out?\n\nBuild great products that solve real problems. The hype video era is already stale.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,215],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986892752286883962","view_count":3190,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1762547121000,"favorite_count":18,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986892752286883962","full_text":"The most important part of “staying in crypto” as an early stage investor is being completely unemotional about the markets.\n\nI feel nothing when our crypto book swings 20–30%.\n\nMaybe that’s unhealthy. But it works.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-09","value":530,"startTime":1762560000000,"endTime":1762646400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,234],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"787810160513200129","name":"Chapter One","screen_name":"chapterone","indices":[50,61]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986969884362940562","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762565511000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986969884362940562","full_text":"Yesterday we locked in two deals that will define @chapterone’s next chapter.\n\nOne: an incubation with a major IP partner (a year in the making).\n\nTwo: a product we’ll launch publicly soon with a major tech platform. \n\nAlways cooking.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,239],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"787810160513200129","name":"Chapter One","screen_name":"chapterone","indices":[50,61]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986970650532327456","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762565693000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986970650532327456","full_text":"Yesterday we locked in two deals that will define @chapterone’s next chapter.\n\nOne: an incubation with a major IP partner (a year in the making).\n\nTwo: a product we’ll launch publicly soon with a well known tech platform. \n\nAlways cooking.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,232],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"787810160513200129","name":"Chapter One","screen_name":"chapterone","indices":[50,61]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986970741779407185","view_count":6055,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1762565715000,"favorite_count":48,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986970741779407185","full_text":"Yesterday we locked in two deals that will define @chapterone’s next chapter.\n\nOne: an incubation with a major IP partner (a year in the making).\n\nTwo: a product we’ll launch publicly soon with a big tech platform. \n\nAlways cooking.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,281],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987236350836494777","view_count":164696,"bookmark_count":200,"created_at":1762629041000,"favorite_count":476,"quote_count":11,"reply_count":30,"retweet_count":21,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1987236350836494777","full_text":"Startup beef is always funny.\n\nYears ago, I worked at a marketplace & we decided Craigslist was our enemy. We built narratives around “beating” them, studied their every move, and even shaped internal goals around taking their users. I’m pretty sure they never thought about us once.\n\nLater, we shifted our obsession to TaskRabbit. Remember Taskrabbit? We spent so much energy trying to outdo them w/ pricing wars, feature debates, endless comparisons. But in the end, neither of us became a breakout, venture-scale success.\n\nThe real competitors were the ones playing a much bigger game: DoorDash, Instacart, Uber. We knew those founders personally, hung out with them at the same SF parties, but never saw them as direct competition. Turns out, they were just playing a different sport entirely.\n\nI see the same thing today in AI and crypto. Startups beefing over tiny overlaps, chasing small wins. Before you pick a fight, make sure you’re actually in a market worth winning. \n\nOtherwise, you’ll wake up every morning obsessed with a game that doesn’t matter.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,54],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"954060455831580672","name":"Molly O’Shea","screen_name":"MollySOShea","indices":[0,12]},{"id_str":"768929915844513792","name":"Jamesin Seidel","screen_name":"seidtweets","indices":[21,32]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"MollySOShea","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987168354260689078","view_count":85,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762612830000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986824069094822264","full_text":"@MollySOShea Talk to @seidtweets - she will have ideas","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"954060455831580672","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1986824069094822264","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,107],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"21706010","name":"Daniel Pearson","screen_name":"danielpearson","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"danielpearson","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987239060021387360","view_count":5021,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762629687000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1987236350836494777","full_text":"@danielpearson Love that Peter Thiel quote and very true.\n\nIf only we had venture funds at that point haha.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"21706010","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987237809229599115","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-10","value":0,"startTime":1762646400000,"endTime":1762732800000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-11","value":0,"startTime":1762732800000,"endTime":1762819200000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-12","value":0,"startTime":1762819200000,"endTime":1762905600000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-13","value":0,"startTime":1762905600000,"endTime":1762992000000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-14","value":169,"startTime":1762992000000,"endTime":1763078400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"4188045073","name":"Jordi Hays","screen_name":"jordihays","indices":[828,838]},{"id_str":"30736937","name":"John Coogan","screen_name":"johncoogan","indices":[841,852]},{"id_str":"1838288550569349120","name":"TBPN","screen_name":"tbpn","indices":[856,861]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988981359013163127","view_count":63,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763045084000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988981359013163127","full_text":"Venture Capital Musical Chairs\n\nWhen I first got into venture capital, I assumed that General Partners stayed at firms for most of their careers. From the outside, venture capital shops looked like stable institutions. At the very least, they felt more permanent than the startups they backed.\n\nThat assumption was dead wrong.\n\nBack then, I was at Tinder and a scout for Index Ventures. It was an awesome experience, but I definitely underestimated how turbulent things can be inside other venture firms I was co-investing with and getting to know more closely.\n\nThat turbulence has only accelerated in the last few years. Every week, I see partners leaving, firms reshaping their strategies, and LP relationships shifting. \n\nIt feels like watching ESPN at this point waiting for Shams to break some trade news. Luckily we have @jordihays & @johncoogan at @tbpn.\n\nFor founders, venture capital musical chairs feels like something happening on the other side of the table. You sense the industry shifting, but you’re busy building your company. Whatever chaos is unfolding inside venture firms isn’t exactly top of mind.\n\nBut you should be thinking about it a lot more. And here's why. \n\nWhen you raise from a venture firm, you don’t really raise from the firm. You raise from a specific partner. You take their calls, you trust their judgment, and you build your relationship around them. They’re the one who sits on your board, texts you late at night, and ideally, fights for you when things get tough. \n\nWhen they leave, you lose that advocate. Suddenly, the person who cared most about your survival inside the partnership is gone.\n\nIn today’s venture world, that partner may not even be around by the time your next fundraise rolls around. \n\nI was talking to a former partner at a multi-stage fund yesterday, and she told me that the average partner at a venture firm sticks around for 7 years. And when they leave, the implications for you are important to understand.\n\nWhat often happens next is that you become an “adopted company.” Other partners don’t rush to claim you, because supporting you doesn’t count toward their scoreboard. Venture is a business built on attribution, and if they didn’t source or lead your deal, the incentive to spend time helping you is low. You end up feeling like the kid at the dinner table nobody wants to introduce.\n\nBoard dynamics only make the problem worse. If your original partner leaves, their seat might be reassigned to someone who barely knows your business, or worse, someone who doesn’t care to. \n\nNow you’re wasting cycles re-educating a new person who has little emotional or financial attachment to your success. Instead of focusing on building, you’re back at square one, explaining the basics to someone who isn’t invested in your story.\n\nAnd then there’s the signaling risk. Other investors notice when your champion departs their firm. LPs notice too. Even if your company is performing well, your life will change.\n\n“Is the firm still supporting you?” You’ll get asked this question dozens of times by other investors, potential hires, and media. You can explain this pretty easily, but it’s just one of those annoying questions that you’ll have to talk about for many years to come.\n\nThis isn’t meant to be morbid. It’s a reminder to choose your partners carefully and understand their career trajectory and standing inside the firm.\n\nFundraising is chaotic right now. Bubble or not, founders and investors are speed-dating their way into big rounds, and everyone’s expected to build trust on a timeline that would be insane in any normal business relationship.\n\nMy best advice is don’t assume the partner you pick will be there forever. Get to know the rest of the partnership, understand how they think, and make sure you actually believe in the firm’s culture and ethos.\n\nA friend put it well yesterday: the only person who’s almost certainly sticking around is the founder of the firm. That’s the longest term partner you're getting into business with. You may not get much access to the founder(s) of a firm, but it’s still worth knowing their story, their reputation, and how they’ve shown up for founders over time.\n\nIf your deal sponsor is gone in a few years, would you still be proud to call that firm your investor? \n\nIf the answer is yes, great, but make sure you’re diligencing them as hard as they’re diligencing you.\n\nVenture Capital Musical Chairs isn’t stopping anytime soon. If anything, it will get much spicier as we understand which partners took massive AI swings that will generate many billions for their firms, or leave their firms holding the bag.\n\nIn either case, your partner still might leave. \n\nInvestors who crushed this AI wave might use that momentum to spin out and start their own firms. And the ones who didn’t get big wins in this cycle might be looking for new jobs soon for reasons we all understand.\n\nAs a founder, choose your partners carefully and make damn sure you’re not the last one left standing when the music stops. \n\nFin.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"4188045073","name":"Jordi Hays","screen_name":"jordihays","indices":[859,869]},{"id_str":"30736937","name":"John Coogan","screen_name":"johncoogan","indices":[872,883]},{"id_str":"1838288550569349120","name":"TBPN","screen_name":"tbpn","indices":[887,892]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988983199872004228","view_count":66136,"bookmark_count":126,"created_at":1763045523000,"favorite_count":165,"quote_count":6,"reply_count":19,"retweet_count":23,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"Venture Capital Musical Chairs (And Why Founders Should Care)\n\nWhen I first got into venture capital, I assumed that General Partners stayed at firms for most of their careers. From the outside, venture capital shops looked like stable institutions. At the very least, they felt more permanent than the startups they backed.\n\nThat assumption was dead wrong.\n\nBack then, I was at Tinder and a scout for Index Ventures. It was an awesome experience, but I definitely underestimated how turbulent things can be inside other venture firms I was co-investing with and getting to know more closely.\n\nThat turbulence has only accelerated in the last few years. Every week, I see partners leaving, firms reshaping their strategies, and LP relationships shifting. \n\nIt feels like watching ESPN at this point waiting for Shams to break some trade news. Luckily we have @jordihays & @johncoogan at @tbpn.\n\nFor founders, venture capital musical chairs feels like something happening on the other side of the table. You sense the industry shifting, but you’re busy building your company. Whatever chaos is unfolding inside venture firms isn’t exactly top of mind.\n\nBut you should be thinking about it a lot more. And here's why. \n\nWhen you raise from a venture firm, you don’t really raise from the firm. You raise from a specific partner. You take their calls, you trust their judgment, and you build your relationship around them. They’re the one who sits on your board, texts you late at night, and ideally, fights for you when things get tough. \n\nWhen they leave, you lose that advocate. Suddenly, the person who cared most about your survival inside the partnership is gone.\n\nIn today’s venture world, that partner may not even be around by the time your next fundraise rolls around. \n\nI was talking to a former partner at a multi-stage fund yesterday, and she told me that the average partner at a venture firm sticks around for 7 years. And when they leave, the implications for you are important to understand.\n\nWhat often happens next is that you become an “adopted company.” Other partners don’t rush to claim you, because supporting you doesn’t count toward their scoreboard. Venture is a business built on attribution, and if they didn’t source or lead your deal, the incentive to spend time helping you is low.\n\nBoard dynamics only make the problem worse. If your original partner leaves, their seat might be reassigned to someone who barely knows your business, or worse, someone who doesn’t care to. \n\nNow you’re wasting cycles re-educating a new person who has little emotional or financial attachment to your success. Instead of focusing on building, you’re back at square one, explaining the basics to someone who isn’t invested in your story.\n\nAnd then there’s the signaling risk. Other investors notice when your champion departs their firm. LPs notice too. Even if your company is performing well, your life will change.\n\n“Is the firm still supporting you?” You’ll get asked this question dozens of times by other investors, potential hires, and media. You can explain this pretty easily, but it’s just one of those annoying questions that you’ll have to talk about for many years to come.\n\nThis isn’t meant to be morbid. It’s a reminder to choose your partners carefully and understand their career trajectory and standing inside the firm.\n\nFundraising is chaotic right now. Bubble or not, founders and investors are speed-dating their way into big rounds, and everyone’s expected to build trust on a timeline that would be insane in any normal business relationship.\n\nMy best advice is don’t assume the partner you pick will be there forever. Get to know the rest of the partnership, understand how they think, and make sure you actually believe in the firm’s culture and ethos.\n\nA friend put it well yesterday: the only person who’s almost certainly sticking around is the founder of the firm. That’s the longest term partner you're getting into business with. You may not get much access to the founder(s) of a firm, but it’s still worth knowing their story, their reputation, and how they’ve shown up for founders over time.\n\nVenture Capital Musical Chairs isn’t stopping anytime soon. If anything, it will get much spicier as we understand which partners took massive AI swings that will generate many billions for their firms, or leave their firms holding the bag.\n\nIn either case, your partner still might leave. \n\nInvestors who crushed this AI wave might use that momentum to spin out and start their own firms. And the ones who didn’t get big wins in this cycle might be looking for new jobs soon for reasons we all understand.\n\nAs a founder, choose your partners carefully and make damn sure you’re not the last one left standing when the music stops. \n\nFin.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,75],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"35647451","name":"Turner Novak 🍌🧢","screen_name":"TurnerNovak","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"TurnerNovak","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988990321540399109","view_count":1308,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763047220000,"favorite_count":4,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"@TurnerNovak Very effective Sparknotes version - I need you to be my editor","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"35647451","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1988989896195756499","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-15","value":171,"startTime":1763078400000,"endTime":1763164800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,87],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1989156238018683215","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/Ssm5bH6JtM","expanded":"https://twitter.com/rohanpaul_ai/status/1989156238018683215","display":"x.com/rohanpaul_ai/s…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989213951863955480","view_count":2628,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1763100538000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989213951863955480","full_text":"Solana FDV: $80B (feels cheap)\nA 1-year-old AI startup: $50B\n\nWelcome to pure-vibes VC.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,121],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rsKQuQih8o","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1989184813312680086/photo/1","id_str":"1989184305332174848","indices":[122,145],"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5sAligbQAAxQo3.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rsKQuQih8o","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":977,"y":403,"h":520,"w":520},{"x":1347,"y":59,"h":635,"w":635},{"x":507,"y":376,"h":589,"w":589}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":572,"y":236,"h":304,"w":304},{"x":789,"y":35,"h":372,"w":372},{"x":297,"y":220,"h":345,"w":345}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":324,"y":134,"h":172,"w":172},{"x":447,"y":19,"h":211,"w":211},{"x":168,"y":124,"h":195,"w":195}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":1833,"y":757,"h":975,"w":975},{"x":2527,"y":112,"h":1192,"w":1192},{"x":952,"y":705,"h":1106,"w":1106}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1152,"w":2048,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":675,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":2160,"width":3840,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":10,"w":3840,"h":2150},{"x":552,"y":0,"w":2160,"h":2160},{"x":685,"y":0,"w":1895,"h":2160},{"x":1092,"y":0,"w":1080,"h":2160},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":3840,"h":2160}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[{"display_url":"x.com/OpenAI/status/…","expanded_url":"https://x.com/OpenAI/status/1989138776585851038","url":"https://t.co/5gFtHQYNiu","indices":[98,121]}],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rsKQuQih8o","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1989184813312680086/photo/1","id_str":"1989184305332174848","indices":[122,145],"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5sAligbQAAxQo3.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rsKQuQih8o","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":977,"y":403,"h":520,"w":520},{"x":1347,"y":59,"h":635,"w":635},{"x":507,"y":376,"h":589,"w":589}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":572,"y":236,"h":304,"w":304},{"x":789,"y":35,"h":372,"w":372},{"x":297,"y":220,"h":345,"w":345}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":324,"y":134,"h":172,"w":172},{"x":447,"y":19,"h":211,"w":211},{"x":168,"y":124,"h":195,"w":195}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":1833,"y":757,"h":975,"w":975},{"x":2527,"y":112,"h":1192,"w":1192},{"x":952,"y":705,"h":1106,"w":1106}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1152,"w":2048,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":675,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":2160,"width":3840,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":10,"w":3840,"h":2150},{"x":552,"y":0,"w":2160,"h":2160},{"x":685,"y":0,"w":1895,"h":2160},{"x":1092,"y":0,"w":1080,"h":2160},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":3840,"h":2160}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"quoted_status_id_str":"1983834443648278593","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/t56Kl9NM7f","expanded":"https://twitter.com/jmj/status/1983834443648278593","display":"x.com/jmj/status/198…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989184813312680086","view_count":19239,"bookmark_count":23,"created_at":1763093591000,"favorite_count":52,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989184813312680086","full_text":"ChatGPT now has group chats.\n\nCongrats to the newest social network on the internet. Case closed.\nhttps://t.co/5gFtHQYNiu https://t.co/rsKQuQih8o","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,282],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989423657438121993","view_count":21867,"bookmark_count":60,"created_at":1763150536000,"favorite_count":102,"quote_count":5,"reply_count":24,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"Vibe Investing Is the New Vibe Coding\n\nThe institutional memory of what happened in 2020–2022 is basically gone. It’s wild how quickly we as an industry forgot.\n\nI have a theory that our brains now process trauma & even financial bubbles in smaller and smaller increments. We’re living through the compression of emotional memory. Our tech industry systems take in stimuli that are too frequent, too loud, and too fast, so nothing sticks. \n\nI dug into my theory more (which you’ve likely felt intuitively but maybe haven’t articulated) and it turns out there’s actually a concept called “emotional amnesia\" which is a feeling numb or disconnected about what is happening around you.\n\nI won’t bore you with the academic details, but my takeaway as applied to venture capital is that the half-life on lessons learned (and in most businesses) is collapsing at the same pace you scroll a TikTok feed. We breeze past a $3B seed round at a $30B valuation like it’s a TMZ clip. \n\nAs a first-time manager who launched a fund in 2019, the 2020–2022 bubble left a permanent imprint on me. I’ll never forget what that period felt like. \n\nThe velocity, FOMO & the total detachment from fundamentals was intoxicating for everyone. Your seed check jumps from a $10M post to a $150M post in 30 days. Congrats… I guess? Because now you have to decide whether to follow on. And it’s a tier-one lead. What do you do?\n\nThat environment pushed every firm, including the great ones, into some objectively terrible decisions.\n\nAnd when I look at venture today, the industry barely resembles what it was even six years ago. We used to joke about “vibe investing” as the exception. The charismatic founder with cult-leader energy, the weird but magnetic pitch, the occasional “let’s take a flyer and see what happens.” Now it’s the norm. \n\nAura and an AI narrative = 10 term sheets.\n\nThere are insanely talented, credible operators building world-changing companies. But a $50B valuation for a pre-product seed round? Is that even venture capital? Call it whatever you want (and honestly we probably need a new category name) because it’s a completely different industry at this point.\n\nThe biggest takeaway is that at almost every stage from seed, growth, crossover, even public markets, we’re operating on vibes. Maybe I’m slowly becoming a boomer for even saying this.\n\nBut it's narrative over numbers, momentum over diligence, social proof over actual proof.\n\nCritics dunk on “vibe coding” as a Gen Z builder phenomenon that creates technical slop, but venture capital has built its own version: vibe investing.\n\nDrop a pitch deck into ChatGPT, run a Deep Research query, and boom “I don’t even need analysts anymore!” You skim the output in five minutes between pitch calls and try to stitch together a market thesis. Meanwhile the founder is a fundraising machine and every other firm is running the exact same Deep Research report you are.\n\nYou better move fast.\n\nSo you hop into Granola, grab one smart-sounding insight from your call, and paste it into Slack like you discovered fire. Your partners light up. Then you mention the founder already has multiple term sheets and suddenly everyone’s ready to clear their calendars.\n\nWe won’t know what turns into investment slop for a few years, but vibe-driven deals are definitely going to push that percentage way up. \n\nMaybe that’s fine & maybe this time really is different, and the outliers will paper over all the vibe-investing slop. But if you’re an emerging manager or running a concentrated portfolio, that’s a dangerous way to live. You don’t get to spray-and-pray your way out of vibes.\n\nRight now the vibes are insanely strong. It’s exciting. I feel just as fired up as everyone else and that energy is exactly why venture and technology keep marching forward.\n\nBut if I had one message today it would be this. \n\nGOOD LUCK AVOIDING THE SLOP.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,14],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"25232333","name":"Pat McGovern","screen_name":"pw_mcgovern","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"pw_mcgovern","lang":"qme","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989437186396332277","view_count":90,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763153761000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@pw_mcgovern 🔥","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"25232333","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989435465892606039","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,47],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"180030016","name":"davidfeiock","screen_name":"davidfeiock","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"davidfeiock","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989439081856864670","view_count":95,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763154213000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@davidfeiock Doing my best to please the people","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"180030016","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989438684970840404","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[16,33],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"90144647","name":"Viraj Acharya","screen_name":"Viraj__Acharya","indices":[0,15]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Viraj__Acharya","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989474730047672821","view_count":55,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763162712000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@Viraj__Acharya Haha yes happy to","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"90144647","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989469687676350678","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,283],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"729253848787738624","name":"george beall","screen_name":"GeorgePBeall","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"GeorgePBeall","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989425758935363750","view_count":254,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763151037000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@GeorgePBeall There will be a mean reversion as DPI gets realized. There is a category land grab right now, and the opportunity is massive, so capital is piling in. Long-term bullish on AI, but at some point, early stage investors will need to get back to some version of discipline.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"729253848787738624","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989425239139520664","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,292],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"13955342","name":"Trace Vertical Ai Cohen","screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989438237971300635","view_count":292,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1763154012000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"Agreed. I think the biggest mistake people will make is not knowing what game they're playing. An emerging manager with a smaller fund trying to execute on the multi-stage strategy is problematic. You have windows of opportunity where you can do things that are outside your core strategy, and putting guard rails on that bucket is hugely important. It's also really easy to let the guard rails down.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"13955342","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989437434082595107","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[11,103],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"192784466","name":"Jeff Richards","screen_name":"jrichlive","indices":[0,10]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"jrichlive","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989351865327472987","view_count":302,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763133419000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"@jrichlive Wild - will check back on this tweet in a few years so you can tell me about the 4th and 5th","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"192784466","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989350740587077902","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,37],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1449604717038825477","name":"Lucas Dickey","screen_name":"LucasDickey4","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"LucasDickey4","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989169728783524119","view_count":446,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763089994000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"@LucasDickey4 This is a great summary","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1449604717038825477","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989167000841777461","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-16","value":1,"startTime":1763164800000,"endTime":1763251200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[16,77],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1950463458648150016","name":"Stanley Wei","screen_name":"StanleyWei4748","indices":[0,15]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"StanleyWei4748","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989713118495490161","view_count":27,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763219549000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@StanleyWei4748 They were supposed to be the roaring 20s and we got this haha","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1950463458648150016","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989711120332910993","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[7,282],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"6874252","name":"Indus Khaitan","screen_name":"1ndus","indices":[0,6]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"1ndus","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989565798088937553","view_count":64,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763184425000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"There are great firms with more than four to five partners. I would just figure out who you're getting into business with and what that partners is standing at the firm. How long have they been there? Have they made any great investments yet? What's their career history look like? Are they someone who will bounce around a lot? Etc.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"6874252","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989558109883519352","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-17","value":0,"startTime":1763251200000,"endTime":1763337600000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-18","value":117,"startTime":1763337600000,"endTime":1763424000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,279],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990480739989868627","view_count":1894,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1763402564000,"favorite_count":16,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990480739989868627","full_text":"When vibe coding started getting popular, some people said, “we won’t need designers anymore, you can just design things yourself.” \n\nThe opposite happened.\n\nI talked to a well respected designer friend today who said freelance rates are climbing, and hiring a full-time designer in the U.S. now starts at $150K.\n\nHe shared a framing I liked:\n\n\"Teams understand the models are going to make everyone 7/10 designers. Which does eliminate the need for low end of the market. But if you can help someone ship 9 or 10/10 design you’ve never been more valuable because it’s now one of the core means of differentiation.\"\n\nAI made bad design easier. It made great design harder & more expensive.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,279],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990491897375436825","view_count":16659,"bookmark_count":48,"created_at":1763405224000,"favorite_count":101,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":16,"retweet_count":9,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990491897375436825","full_text":"When vibe coding started getting popular, some people said, “we won’t need designers anymore, you can just design things yourself.” \n\nThe opposite happened.\n\nI talked to a well respected designer friend today who said freelance design rates are getting more expensive, and hiring a full-time designer in the U.S. now starts at $150K.\n\nHe shared a framing I liked:\n\n\"Teams understand the models are going to make everyone 7/10 designers. Which does eliminate the need for low end of the market. But if you can help someone ship 9 or 10/10 design you’ve never been more valuable because it’s now one of the core means of differentiation.\"\n\nAI made bad design easier. It also made great design harder & more expensive.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-19","value":247,"startTime":1763424000000,"endTime":1763510400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,146],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/CzdN0xANyq","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1990572770015809922/photo/1","id_str":"1990571616619933696","indices":[147,170],"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5_uVrybMAAQ8U6.png","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/CzdN0xANyq","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":609,"width":568,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":318},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":568},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":534,"h":609},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":305,"h":609},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":609}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/CzdN0xANyq","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1990572770015809922/photo/1","id_str":"1990571616619933696","indices":[147,170],"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5_uVrybMAAQ8U6.png","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/CzdN0xANyq","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":609,"width":568,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":318},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":568},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":534,"h":609},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":305,"h":609},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":609}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990572770015809922","view_count":5620,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1763424506000,"favorite_count":27,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990572770015809922","full_text":"LP inbox right now: a flood of GPs explaining why they didn’t see the Bezos AI deal.\n\n\"Our sourcing engine is being rebuilt from first principles\" https://t.co/CzdN0xANyq","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1990841773799682300","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/ivg0YeXKEN","expanded":"https://twitter.com/yrechtman/status/1990841773799682300","display":"x.com/yrechtman/stat…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990855280654233609","view_count":23462,"bookmark_count":70,"created_at":1763491861000,"favorite_count":79,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":7,"retweet_count":4,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990855280654233609","full_text":"One question that every seed investor should be asking themselves right now is whether they should be focusing more on early traction rounds, as opposed to pre-product investing. \n\nIn the past couple months, we've met a few teams raising rounds at $30M-$40M post-valuation who have real traction ($1-$4m ARR). \n\nAs a seed investor, would you rather invest in one of these rounds at $40m post or a pre-product seed round that calls itself an AI company at a $20M-$30M post? They're basically priced the same. \n\nSome of the early tractions teams call these rounds \"seed extensions,\" and others stretch it to a Series A label. \n\nFor whatever reason, they haven't been treated as \"hot companies\" by the Series A market, but they're building very solid businesses that are growing well. \n\nI haven't come up with an exact terminology for these companies. They're generally not pure-play AI deals, but are often utilizing AI in interesting ways. The headline on the deck doesn't read AI deal, but they're real businesses. \n\nFor the sake of this essay, let's just call them \"AI tweeners\". \n\nThere is a temptation to invest in what is new (ie the brand new AI company raising at $20-$30m post) because you're investing in a cool story & get to help bring a new company to market & call yourself the lead. \n\nBut maybe the $40m \"AI tweener\" is a better bet. By paying a slight premium, you invest in a company that's figured a lot out, has revenue, and is building in a category that likely has less competition. \n\nThe challenge with investing in the $40M post is that you likely called yourself a seed firm to all of your limited partners, so your entry price is going to look like what has historically been called a Series A. Is this strategy drift, or is it being a good investor? \n\nIf your goal is to build the highest performing portfolio, investing in \"AI tweeners\" is the part of market that is likely most undervalued right now. \n\nSo maybe you should stop calling yourself a seed fund & invest in early traction companies while the rest of the market is obsessed with finding the next hot pre-product seed deal. \n\nJust some thoughts.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"3393185261","name":"yoni rechtman","screen_name":"yrechtman","indices":[2202,2212]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990857909635518465","view_count":9799,"bookmark_count":47,"created_at":1763492488000,"favorite_count":73,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":8,"retweet_count":5,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990857909635518465","full_text":"One question that every seed investor should be asking themselves right now is whether they should be focusing more on early traction rounds, as opposed to pre-product investing. \n\nIn the past couple months, we've met a few teams raising rounds at $30M-$40M post-valuation who have real traction ($1-$4m ARR). \n\nAs a seed investor, would you rather invest in one of these rounds at $40m post or a pre-product seed round that calls itself an AI company at a $20M-$30M post? They're basically priced the same. \n\nSome of the early tractions teams call these rounds \"seed extensions,\" and others stretch it to a Series A label. \n\nFor whatever reason, they haven't been treated as \"hot companies\" by the Series A market, but they're building very solid businesses that are growing well. \n\nI haven't come up with an exact terminology for these companies. They're generally not pure-play AI deals, but are often utilizing AI in interesting ways. The headline on the deck doesn't read AI deal, but they're real businesses. \n\nFor the sake of this essay, let's just call them \"AI tweeners\". \n\nThere is a temptation to invest in what is new (ie the brand new AI company raising at $20-$30m post) because you're investing in a cool story & get to help bring a new company to market & call yourself the lead. \n\nBut maybe the $40m \"AI tweener\" is a better bet. By paying a slight premium, you invest in a company that's figured a lot out, has revenue, and is building in a category that likely has less competition. \n\nThe challenge with investing in the $40M post is that you likely called yourself a seed firm to all of your limited partners, so your entry price is going to look like what has historically been called a Series A. Is this strategy drift, or is it being a good investor? \n\nIf your goal is to build the highest performing portfolio, investing in \"AI tweeners\" is the part of market that is likely most undervalued right now. \n\nSo maybe you should stop calling yourself a seed fund & invest in early traction companies while the rest of the market is obsessed with finding the next hot pre-product seed deal. \n\nJust some thoughts.\n\nOriginally written as a response to a tweet by @yrechtman, but creating a separate essay so more people can hopefully read it.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990865081354334636","view_count":7759,"bookmark_count":10,"created_at":1763494198000,"favorite_count":68,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":17,"retweet_count":4,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990865081354334636","full_text":"I am noticing a lot of apathy and despair in the crypto community right now. This is funny to me because we should all be basking in the opportunity to actually build valuable applications and companies right now.\n\nOne of the most common complaints in prior cycles was that crypto founders didn't have a fighting chance to run the experiments that they wanted to test due to regulatory battles. \n\nIn the United States, we have a very supportive regulatory environment right now, and it is possible to be a U.S. crypto founder in categories like Defi which were previously very dicey. \n\nBut for some reason, the mood amongst founders and investors is especially solemn right now.\n\nMy take is that building products and companies that people care about is incredibly hard, especially with AI dominating the headlines. \n\nIt was easy to use regulatory constraints as an excuse in prior cycles, and now that we no longer have that issue, we have to actually go build products that people use every day & care about. \n\nAnd these products can't be another L1/L2 or some abstract technical infrastructure that increases TPS or makes blockchains cheaper. We already have that. \n\nInfra was a convenient area for investors and founders to fund and build because you could TGE and get rich & punt on building applications. \n\nBut today, you have to go build applications that people care about. That's really it. There's almost nothing else to do on the infrastructure side to run the experiments that will validate how big crypto can be. \n\nThe industry needs to stop feeling sorry for itself and go prove that the many, many billions of dollars that have gone to the industry were building towards something meaningful. Stablecoins, payments, etc. are all obvious places to build real consumer value. \n\nNow is the time.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-20","value":0,"startTime":1763510400000,"endTime":1763596800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,228],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1915059354153160706","name":"moneydevkit","screen_name":"money_dev_kit","indices":[42,56]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1991151978953789614","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/EAfA4urbR2","expanded":"https://twitter.com/nickslaney/status/1991151978953789614","display":"x.com/nickslaney/sta…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1991154186755674513","view_count":171,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763563126000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1991154186755674513","full_text":"We’re thrilled to lead the seed round for @money_dev_kit. \n\nThey broke a world record today on the same day they announced the fundraise.\n\nNow the fastest way for anyone on earth to add payments. Builders are going to love this.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-21","value":0,"startTime":1763596800000,"endTime":1763683200000,"tweets":[]}],"nviews":[{"label":"2025-10-22","value":1183790,"startTime":1761004800000,"endTime":1761091200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":true,"display_text_range":[0,270],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rPx7ztdMGQ","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1980504752829132945/photo/1","id_str":"1980501236362153984","indices":[271,294],"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G3wnYZ6WkAAmnCh.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rPx7ztdMGQ","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":12,"y":110,"h":30,"w":30}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":422,"width":750,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":420},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":422,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":370,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":211,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":422}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rPx7ztdMGQ","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1980504752829132945/photo/1","id_str":"1980501236362153984","indices":[271,294],"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G3wnYZ6WkAAmnCh.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rPx7ztdMGQ","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":12,"y":110,"h":30,"w":30}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":14,"y":122,"h":34,"w":34}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":422,"w":750,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":422,"width":750,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":420},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":422,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":370,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":211,"h":422},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":750,"h":422}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1980501236362153984"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980504752829132945","view_count":1096466,"bookmark_count":2205,"created_at":1761024103000,"favorite_count":28909,"quote_count":298,"reply_count":660,"retweet_count":3461,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"Everyone talks about AI slop. \nNo one talks about PE (private equity) slop.\n\n- restaurants that lost their soul\n- medical practices that feel like assembly lines\n- apartment buildings designed by an Excel formula\n\nThe algorithm didn’t kill culture. The margin model did. https://t.co/rPx7ztdMGQ","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,60],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"932630991298007041","name":"litquidity","screen_name":"litcapital","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"litcapital","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980648813561008268","view_count":24455,"bookmark_count":5,"created_at":1761058450000,"favorite_count":227,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@litcapital haha that’s what I’m saying, impossible to unsee","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"932630991298007041","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980647342371213594","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,51],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1301314271989518336","name":"illiquid","screen_name":"lefttailguy","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"lefttailguy","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980629841155330197","view_count":19708,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761053927000,"favorite_count":277,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@lefttailguy artisanal content, thank you very much","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1301314271989518336","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980628461417804114","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,161],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"156765498","name":"Michael Williams","screen_name":"mxwilliams","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"mxwilliams","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980633611884970415","view_count":14727,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761054826000,"favorite_count":149,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":16,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@mxwilliams maybe they would, most ppl hate going to the dentist for a variety of reasons.\n\n5% feels for a better experience is something ppl would prob pay for.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"156765498","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980632925075894309","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,134],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"14117767","name":"Jonas 🦩","screen_name":"jonaslamis","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"jonaslamis","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980506004510085379","view_count":17431,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761024402000,"favorite_count":126,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@jonaslamis You might be right. Maybe AI slop is just the tipping point that’s making us realize how sloppy the world has always been.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"14117767","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980505576590447033","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[17,63],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1081596786073128960","name":"Old white guy","screen_name":"obrecht_michael","indices":[0,16]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"obrecht_michael","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980676318359666791","view_count":11003,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1761065008000,"favorite_count":129,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980504752829132945","full_text":"@obrecht_michael thanks for sharing, not an easy thing to solve","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1081596786073128960","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980674670094373173","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-23","value":25138,"startTime":1761091200000,"endTime":1761177600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,281],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981026514079805470","view_count":25016,"bookmark_count":69,"created_at":1761148501000,"favorite_count":210,"quote_count":3,"reply_count":26,"retweet_count":24,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981026514079805470","full_text":"There is a very big difference between running a venture fund and building a venture firm. \n\nI get a lot of aspiring venture capitalists who ask me about starting their own firm, and the quick thing I tell them is that they have to love company building & operations as much as they love investing. \n\nAt the end of the day, so much of your time is spent on fundraising, recruiting, and back office. You have to really love that stuff early on (or it least be good at it) when nobody is there to help you out.\n\nIf you don’t love the non-investing stuff or have enough self-awareness to know you're not good at it, you should definitely consider joining a platform. I have friends who are amazingly talented who have decided they only want to focus on investing, and they are very happy & many make a ton of money too. \n\nEasy to run a fund. Much harder to build a firm.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,237],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"935658795098832896","name":"Ibrahim S.","screen_name":"IbrahimS15","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"IbrahimS15","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1980849065622683933","view_count":122,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761106194000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1980666971650945285","full_text":"@IbrahimS15 This is the single best feedback from an interviewer that I've ever seen. I know it's hard to get past the rejection and the what-ifs of the opportunity, but use this as motivation, and you will do great things. Best of luck.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"935658795098832896","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1980666971650945285","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-24","value":57442,"startTime":1761177600000,"endTime":1761264000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981361260852892174","view_count":56764,"bookmark_count":42,"created_at":1761228311000,"favorite_count":96,"quote_count":5,"reply_count":20,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981361260852892174","full_text":"The death of SaaS has been overstated. \n\nWhen VCs or industry analysts say that SaaS is dead, they replace the word SaaS with AI agents or some other descriptor for B2B software.\n\nHuman addiction to technology is well known in the consumer space, and the same applies for anything in the enterprise. \n\nEnterprises are addicted to software, and whether the user is human or an agent doesn't matter. At the end of the day, there will always be a top 1% of founders and companies who design their software in a superior way to their competitors, and those will be massive companies where the TAM is even bigger than what was formerly called SaaS.\n\nSoftware is here to stay (with much more powerful capabilities!), which is such an obvious thing to state yet I'm hearing otherwise from my peers.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[9,288],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"6228302","name":"Sheel Mohnot","screen_name":"pitdesi","indices":[0,8]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"pitdesi","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981402156306760016","view_count":414,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761238061000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981381724702724256","full_text":"This is very true. \n\nI think from the outside, folks who hear this mistake the evolving business model with the death of an entire category of software.\n\nOrganizations are becoming even more software-obsessed, and there is a new generation of products that are quickly displacing incumbents. \n\nSoftware is obviously becoming easier to build, but the opportunity for venture capitalists is still massive. \n\nThese things feel so obvious to type, but you'd be surprised at how many conversations I have that revolve around this very topic.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"6228302","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981381724702724256","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[23,113],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"829946137","name":"Itai | dynamic.xyz","screen_name":"turbahn","indices":[0,8]},{"id_str":"1135606000868872192","name":"Fireblocks","screen_name":"FireblocksHQ","indices":[9,22]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"turbahn","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981417837395923151","view_count":264,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761241800000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981393151530254774","full_text":"@turbahn @FireblocksHQ Congrats, have loved working with you and the team the last few years. First class always.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"829946137","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981393151530254774","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-25","value":212162,"startTime":1761264000000,"endTime":1761350400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981703025946501274","view_count":70,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761309794000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981703025946501274","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else you'll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should!), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. These are some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy and pursue the deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981703548401520684","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761309918000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981703548401520684","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else you'll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should!), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. These investments will stand out in your data room so you might as well get ahead of those conversations and explain your underwriting logic. \n\nThese are also some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy & pursue the really special deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981704081166016556","view_count":57,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761310045000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981704081166016556","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else you'll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. Those investments will stand out in your data room so you might as well get ahead of those conversations and explain your underwriting logic. \n\nThese are also some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy & pursue the really special deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981709123755610507","view_count":199549,"bookmark_count":256,"created_at":1761311248000,"favorite_count":346,"quote_count":18,"reply_count":23,"retweet_count":25,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"I was at the LP conference this week, and one of the most common questions I got was whether you as a seed fund manager should be investing in some of the hotter, more expensive seed rounds.\n\nThis is an incredibly challenging question to answer because venture is a game of exceptions, and our business is to partner with the best founders and generate the best returns. Some managers stick to their portfolio construction model like Billy Bean trying to Moneyball the industry, and they end up passing on deals because they're too rigid, believing that the Excel model will be a better decision maker than their own gut.\n\nInevitably, I get text messages or have lunch conversations with these managers several years later where they lament the fact that they passed on a generational company because the price was too high. This type of conversation has actually become a bit of a meme in my life because it's so common. \n\nEvery investor thinks their way of doing venture is obviously better than their peers' otherwise they wouldn't be running the strategy that’ve decided to pursue. So what is the best move in these situations?\n\nIf you meet a founder who is going to build one of the 10-20 companies that matter every vintage, then of course you should pay up and invest in one of the earlier rounds, no matter the price.\n\nThe critical piece here is understanding that in your barbell of core strategy and exceptions, you better be right a majority of the time or else it’ll look like strategy drift. \n\nIf you have you have a close relationship with your LPAC (which you should), keep them in the loop on what you're thinking when you do want to break your own model, and most of the time they will support you.\n\nAnd when you're fundraising, be sure to talk about the exceptions whether they worked out or not. Those investments will stand out in your data room so you might as well get ahead of those conversations and explain your underwriting logic. \n\nThese are also some of the most interesting conversations, and I guarantee that the best LPs will trust you to know when to break strategy & pursue the really special deal.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,277],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"811350","name":"Alexis Ohanian 🗽","screen_name":"alexisohanian","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"alexisohanian","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981768701885264380","view_count":4259,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761325452000,"favorite_count":24,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@alexisohanian 100% true. I find that newer managers are more risk-averse to exceptions because they don't want to get fired by their LPs. If you study the history of venture capital, many of the best firms today became franchises in critical moments when they made exceptions.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"811350","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981767253252358505","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,286],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"69619073","name":"Andrew D'Souza","screen_name":"andrewdsouza","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"andrewdsouza","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981777971267743913","view_count":1943,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761327662000,"favorite_count":15,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@andrewdsouza Most LPAs don’t have strict parameters around valuations.\n\nThey more often have definitions around:\n\n- what % of fund can go to a single investment \n\n- recycling % \n\n- deployment period \n\nMost of the time these exceptions aren’t made because GPs are scared of being wrong.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"69619073","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981777001078788107","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,220],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1945812818932170753","name":"Neo","screen_name":"neo3141111","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"neo3141111","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981736892283469930","view_count":1741,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1761317868000,"favorite_count":15,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@neo3141111 You could look at a long list of hundreds of GPs who have world class track records that have invested after the pre-seed. A very easy list of people to study would be folks like Peter Thiel, Fred Wilson, etc","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1945812818932170753","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981734983279562826","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,23],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"20397708","name":"Niki Scevak","screen_name":"nikiscevak","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"nikiscevak","lang":"fr","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981860895103025450","view_count":1021,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761347433000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@nikiscevak Raise in SF","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"20397708","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981860111879672307","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,45],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"75409972","name":"Josh Porter","screen_name":"joshdotporter","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"joshdotporter","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981818015080673366","view_count":950,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761337209000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@joshdotporter ty great seeing you this week!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"75409972","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981812251968545118","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,25],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1764321378507931648","name":"Rohan","screen_name":"proxy_vector","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"proxy_vector","lang":"ca","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981757033461481979","view_count":933,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761322670000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@proxy_vector 100 percent","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1764321378507931648","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981748076227301597","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,294],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"175934436","name":"Paul Yacoubian","screen_name":"PaulYacoubian","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"PaulYacoubian","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981706003306746307","view_count":1639,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761310504000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981704081166016556","full_text":"Ha, this is a dangerous game to play because exit value is the model input that tends to be the most hand-wavy. It's really easy to change the exit value from $10B to $20B and have your entire model look like a work of art.\n\nI find that newer investors overestimate exit value on their investment proposals, and that the model assumption is normally tied to a 1x RTF (return the fund) outcome when your winners should math out to outcomes that are far greater like 3x-5x net or above. \n\nGetting the RTF model to make sense is becoming harder to build as entry prices become higher. The math just doesn't math out most of the time. So some just change that exit value to $1T and do the deal :)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"175934436","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981704634734711025","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-26","value":658,"startTime":1761350400000,"endTime":1761436800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,132],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"6781512","name":"Martin Tobias (Pre-Seed VC)","screen_name":"MartinGTobias","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"MartinGTobias","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982144968669135150","view_count":658,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761415161000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1981709123755610507","full_text":"@MartinGTobias 100%. Fully believe that an 80/20 core vs. \"breaking the rules\" barbell strategy is the best for an early-stage firm.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"6781512","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1982141432950391154","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-27","value":18822,"startTime":1761436800000,"endTime":1761523200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982472740914540939","view_count":880,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1761493308000,"favorite_count":7,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982472740914540939","full_text":"One of the most common questions you’ll get when fundraising for a venture fund is about sourcing. \n\nLPs are ultimately buying into your thesis and your access, so it makes sense that sourcing is one of the first questions.\n\nThe question is hard to answer because sourcing usually comes from many different channels & almost every VC believes their approach is better than their peers’.\n\nI can’t even imagine how confusing it must be for an LP who covers venture as part of a broader portfolio to figure out what’s real and what’s not. They get pitched by hundreds of managers a year, all claiming the same “proprietary deal flow” story.\n\nSo I figured I’d write a quick note on how I think about sourcing.\n\nI like to compare sourcing to multi-channel marketing. You have multiple inputs driving top of funnel, and ideally three or four strategies that create a sourcing flywheel.\n\nIt sometimes feels like LPs are searching for a single channel they can bring to their IC and say, “Look, they have a better sourcing engine.” But relying on one channel is risky. The game changes & so do relationships and competition.\n\nSourcing is never a magic bullet. Despite the debates, I don’t believe anyone has a true proprietary sourcing advantage beyond their reputation.\n\nSpeaking of proprietary networks... \n\nI met with a well-known GP recently who is now investing in a small number of funds & he asked which proprietary networks we have access to. It was a fair question, but I pushed back bc there are no truly proprietary networks in venture anymore.\n\nTake YC, for example. Founders could easily join other accelerators or raise the traditional way, but they choose YC because they trust it will get them further, faster. That trust is the differentiator.\n\nOr look at the handful of firms that have built entire franchises by backing Elon again and again - SpaceX, Tesla, The Boring Company, etc. The sourcing channel is no secret; the access is. And that access comes from relationships earned over decades.\n\nEveryone’s searching for a sourcing “hack.” The truth is, there isn’t one. The only real proprietary network in venture is your reputation. \n\nSo when LPs ask about sourcing, I try to reframe the question. It’s not where we find companies but it’s why the best founders choose to work with us once they’re found. \n\nThat’s the real edge, and it’s built over years, not through a single channel or campaign.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982476724895113555","view_count":17942,"bookmark_count":127,"created_at":1761494258000,"favorite_count":147,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":8,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982476724895113555","full_text":"One of the most common questions you’ll get when fundraising for a venture fund is about sourcing. \n\nLPs are ultimately buying into your thesis and your access, so it makes sense that sourcing is one of the first questions.\n\nThe question is hard to answer because sourcing usually comes from many different channels & almost every VC believes their approach is better than their peers’.\n\nI can’t even imagine how confusing it must be for an LP who covers venture as part of a broader portfolio to figure out what’s real and what’s not. They get pitched by hundreds of managers a year, all claiming the same “proprietary deal flow” story.\n\nSo I figured I’d write a quick note on how I think about sourcing.\n\nI like to compare sourcing to multi-channel marketing. You have multiple inputs driving top of funnel, and ideally three or four strategies that create a sourcing flywheel.\n\nIt sometimes feels like LPs are searching for a single channel they can bring to their IC and say, “Look, they have a better sourcing engine.” But relying on one channel is risky. The game changes & so do relationships and competition.\n\nSourcing is never a magic bullet. Despite the debates, I don’t believe anyone has a true proprietary sourcing advantage beyond their reputation.\n\nSpeaking of proprietary networks... \n\nI met with a well-known GP recently who is now investing in a small number of funds & he asked which proprietary networks we have access to. It was a fair question, but I pushed back bc there are no truly proprietary networks in venture anymore.\n\nTake YC. Founders could easily join other accelerators or raise the traditional way, but they choose YC because they trust it will get them further, faster. YC doesn’t have a proprietary network - it has a brand that founders want to be associated with. They trust YC to be the best Day 1 partner to help them build something valuable.\n\nWhat’s even more interesting is what happens after YC. Because it’s such an efficient marketplace, every venture firm has access to the same company list - it’s one of the most transparent markets in venture. We all know each batch will include a handful of outliers. None of that is proprietary sourcing. The real differentiation is in how firms underwrite conviction early and actually win those deals.\n\nOr look at the handful of firms that have built entire franchises by backing Elon again and again - SpaceX, Tesla, The Boring Company, etc. The sourcing channel is no secret; the access is. And that access comes from relationships earned over decades.\n\nEveryone’s searching for a sourcing “hack.” The truth is, there isn’t one. The only real proprietary network in venture is your reputation. \n\nSo when LPs ask about sourcing, I try to reframe the question. It’s not where we find companies but it’s why the best founders choose to work with us once they’re found. \n\nThat’s the real edge, and it’s built over years, not through a single channel or campaign.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-28","value":4404,"startTime":1761523200000,"endTime":1761609600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,133],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982861967221240040","view_count":417,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761586107000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982861967221240040","full_text":"Every airport lounge is like:\n\n“Our menu is thoughtfully curated by award-winning chef _______” with some random I've never heard of.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982863864191713386","view_count":3987,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761586559000,"favorite_count":21,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1982863864191713386","full_text":"Every airport lounge is like:\n\n“Our menu is thoughtfully curated by award-winning chef ____” with some random I've never heard of.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-29","value":0,"startTime":1761609600000,"endTime":1761696000000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-30","value":46858,"startTime":1761696000000,"endTime":1761782400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983566611404521838","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761754107000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983566611404521838","full_text":"I had a funny conversation with an LP a couple weeks back where he said, \"If I hear another venture capitalist say the words 'prepared mind' again, I will go crazy.\" \n\nThere are many terms like this that get repeated in GP land, especially during AGM season when we’re all bumping into each other often: \n\n • Thesis-driven\n • Thematic \n • Research-driven\n • Prepared mind\n • First principles\n\nThe list goes on. \n\nAs a starting point, if you're an investor, you should absolutely be all these things. \n\nYour job is to develop a point of view on the world, identify a set of problems that you think will become big markets, and find the best founders to solve those problems.\n\nThe concept of a prepared mind has mostly been co-opted for fundraising purposes in venture capital, but the concept is still important to practice and understand. \n\nAt its core, a prepared mind means that you have spent enough time in a given market to know when you meet a founder who is solving the right problem at the right time.\n\nThis is literally the job of an investor, so every single venture capitalist should have a prepared mind. \n\nAnyways, enough on this topic for now. I have a meeting with an LP, and I'm going into it with a prepared mind ;)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983567542862970996","view_count":18,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761754329000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983567542862970996","full_text":"I had a funny conversation with an LP a couple weeks back where he said, \"If I hear another venture capitalist say the words 'prepared mind' again, I will go crazy.\" \n\nThere are many terms like this that get repeated in GP land, especially during AGM season when we’re all bumping into each other often: \n\n • Thesis-driven\n • Thematic \n • Research-driven\n • Prepared mind\n • First principles\n\nThe list goes on. \n\nAs a starting point, if you're an investor, you should absolutely practice all these things, but in 99% of cases this isn’t a differentiated approach. \n\nYour job is to develop a point of view on the world, identify a set of problems that you think will become big markets, and find the best founders to solve those problems.\n\nCall it whatever you want but that’s what great investors do. \n\nThe concept of a prepared mind has mostly been co-opted for fundraising purposes in venture capital, but the concept is still important to practice and understand. \n\nAt its core, a prepared mind means that you have spent enough time in a given market to know when you meet a founder who is solving the right problem at the right time.\n\nThis is literally the job of an investor, so every single venture capitalist should have a prepared mind. \n\nAnyways, enough on this topic for now. I have a meeting with an LP, and I'm going into it with a prepared mind ;)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983568035559419942","view_count":11074,"bookmark_count":34,"created_at":1761754447000,"favorite_count":83,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":10,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983568035559419942","full_text":"I had a fun conversation with an LP a couple weeks back where he said, \"If I hear another venture capitalist say the words 'prepared mind' again, I will go crazy.\" \n\nThere are many terms like this that get repeated in GP land, especially during AGM season when we’re all bumping into each other often: \n\n • Thesis-driven\n • Thematic \n • Research-driven\n • Prepared mind\n • First principles\n\nThe list goes on. \n\nAs a starting point, if you're an investor, you should absolutely practice all these things, but in 99% of cases this isn’t a differentiated approach. \n\nBut yes, your job is to develop a point of view on the world, identify a set of problems that you think will become big markets, and find the best founders to solve those problems.\n\nCall it whatever you want but that’s what great investors do. \n\nThe concept of a prepared mind has mostly been co-opted for fundraising purposes in venture capital, but it’s still important to practice and understand. \n\nAt its core, a prepared mind means that you have spent enough time in a given market to know when you meet a founder who is solving the right problem at the right time.\n\nThis is literally the job of an investor, so every single venture capitalist should have a prepared mind. \n\nAnyways, enough on this topic for now. I have a meeting with an LP, and I'm going into it with a prepared mind ;)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,295],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983615157277487153","view_count":21522,"bookmark_count":56,"created_at":1761765681000,"favorite_count":73,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":13,"retweet_count":8,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983615157277487153","full_text":"Engagement -> Retention -> Monetization used to be the funnel of building products & companies. \n\nMonetization -> Engagement -> Retention is the order that I'm seeing founders prioritize today in the AI age.\n\nI love monetization & spent 5 years of my life waking up every day trying to increase subs/a la carte purchases while leading the revenue team at the top grossing app in the world. \n\nSo you would think I'd agree that monetization is what everybody should spend their time thinking about, but the answer is far more nuanced. \n\nWe hear the words \"Vibe Revenue\" or \"Experimental Revenue\" being thrown out a lot this year in podcasts and newsletters, and those are accurate terms to describe what so much of monetization feels like today. \n\nIn prior cycles, founders had to earn the right to focus on monetization by building a great product first. \n\nA great product can be subjective - we use the words 'taste' and 'craft' a lot, but you can also measure it by looking first at engagement & then studying retention. \n\nThe problem with focusing on monetization too early is that you create a false sense of success, especially if you haven't seen renewal cycles yet. \n\nI am guessing there is a significant percentage of new companies who stare at their engagement and retention data all day long (which might be going up & to the right) & know there are deep flaws in their product. \n\nBut they lean on monetization ($0-$10m in a year!) to make it seem like they've found product-market fit with their own teams & investors. \n\nIt's a lot of fun to make money. I had the most fun ever in my operating career leading revenue teams. It can be addicting at times. \n\nBut the only reason we became the top-grossing app in the world is because we had best-in-class engagement and retention metrics for our category. We earned the right to monetize. \n\nI hope we get back to a world where everything starts with engagement and retention. Then we can talk about revenue.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,96],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1983617932791050265","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/voxOtB2akT","expanded":"https://twitter.com/spenserskates/status/1983617932791050265","display":"x.com/spenserskates/…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983637002928189443","view_count":14244,"bookmark_count":8,"created_at":1761770890000,"favorite_count":69,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":6,"retweet_count":4,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983637002928189443","full_text":"100%. The feature-vs-company blur might be the defining question of this AI cycle for investors.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-31","value":169970,"startTime":1761782400000,"endTime":1761868800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,279],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1219566488325017602","name":"Supabase","screen_name":"supabase","indices":[776,785]},{"id_str":"24486938","name":"Nikhil Basu Trivedi","screen_name":"nbt","indices":[2899,2903]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983834443648278593","view_count":148751,"bookmark_count":122,"created_at":1761817963000,"favorite_count":237,"quote_count":6,"reply_count":47,"retweet_count":13,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"I had a conversation with an investor yesterday who claimed there hasn’t been a hit consumer app in over five years.\n\nMy response: ChatGPT is a consumer app.\n\nHe pushed back saying “It started as a research lab, not a consumer company.”\n\nThat convo made me realize how broken our definition of “consumer” has become.\n\nYears ago, I invested in Superhuman after watching my friends (and my Twitter feed) rave about it nonstop. At the time, I was working at a consumer company, yet I never questioned whether Superhuman was “consumer” or not.\n\nPeople love Superhuman for both personal and work use & it’s a daily habit with engagement and retention stronger than most social apps. If that’s not consumer behavior, what is?\n\nThis might sound surprising to some, but I also viewed @supabase from a consumer lens when we invested in the pre-seed, despite it being an open source dev tool. More than the underlying technology, I was most fascinated by the bottoms up nature of how developers were adopting the database and how passionate the early community was about the product.\n\nOpen source projects arguably have stronger communities than most consumer products, and the behaviors are social by nature. They have some of most interesting network effects as every incremental developer makes the project stronger. This aligns perfectly with the classic definition of network effects. \n\nI’ve also always believed that products built by product-first founders, designed for broad, personal use should be considered consumer products. \n\nBut somewhere along the way, we invented the term prosumer, and it’s confused everyone. \n\nIt made these products sound like mini-enterprise tools, which undersells that they’re designed for mass-market behaviors wrapped in productivity.\n\nBy that logic, Superhuman, ChatGPT, Perplexity, and a growing list of “non-consumer” tools are absolutely consumer products.\n\nChatGPT alone has over 750 million weekly active users which is mainstream adoption by any definition. And as it evolves into agentic e-commerce and video gen tools like Sora, its use cases are only getting more personal.\n\nWhy does this matter?\n\nBecause category definitions drive fundraising.\n\nIf you’re a founder pitching a “consumer” product, your pool of potential investors shrinks dramatically. If you just look at how venture firms organize internally, they often literally split their teams by enterprise and consumer, which makes no sense to me. \n\nThe same goes for VCs pitching LPs where consumer is still viewed as a cyclical category. If you send a consumer venture fund deck to a large group of LPs, many categorically wouldn't take your pitch. \n\nIn reality “consumer” today looks nothing like “social, local, mobile” which is how so many people think of consumer. \n\nWork and life are blending, and the products we use every day at home & at work don’t fit cleanly into old boxes.\n\nMy friend @nbt once wrote about the consumerization of the enterprise saying:\n\n“Amazon the largest e-commerce (consumer!) company in the world, offers Amazon Web Services, the largest cloud services (enterprise!) business in the world.\n\nNVIDIA, the largest personal computer graphics (consumer!) company in the world, offers graphics processing units (GPUs) for artificial intelligence applications (enterprise!), and has seen its market cap grow 20X in the past decade since this dual focus.”\n\nThe next generation of breakout apps won’t be defined by where they’re used, but by how deeply they integrate into daily life.\n\nWe’re in the golden age of consumer products. And yes, ChatGPT counts.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,172],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1542601224654127105","name":"Helius","screen_name":"heliuslabs","indices":[11,22]},{"id_str":"1309886201944473600","name":"mert | helius.dev","screen_name":"0xMert_","indices":[74,82]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1983479334947176680","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/LIavHNiSYf","expanded":"https://twitter.com/0xMert_/status/1983479334947176680","display":"x.com/0xMert_/status…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983884450229579777","view_count":11583,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1761829886000,"favorite_count":48,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":5,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983884450229579777","full_text":"We had our @heliuslabs board meeting yesterday. \n\nThe engineering pace of @0xMert_ and the entire team is wild right now.\n\nAnd the roadmap is about to get VERY interesting.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,279],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/uNgGonZr3V","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1983891914207469656/photo/1","id_str":"1983891704093798401","indices":[280,303],"media_key":"3_1983891704093798401","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4gy_mda8AE6LL8.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/uNgGonZr3V","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":217,"y":53,"h":88,"w":88}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":872,"w":766,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":872,"w":766,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":680,"w":597,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":872,"width":766,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":429},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":766},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":765,"h":872},{"x":152,"y":0,"w":436,"h":872},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":872}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1983891704093798401"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/uNgGonZr3V","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1983891914207469656/photo/1","id_str":"1983891704093798401","indices":[280,303],"media_key":"3_1983891704093798401","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4gy_mda8AE6LL8.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/uNgGonZr3V","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":217,"y":53,"h":88,"w":88}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":279,"y":69,"h":114,"w":114}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":872,"w":766,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":872,"w":766,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":680,"w":597,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":872,"width":766,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":429},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":766},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":765,"h":872},{"x":152,"y":0,"w":436,"h":872},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":766,"h":872}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1983891704093798401"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983891914207469656","view_count":5435,"bookmark_count":19,"created_at":1761831665000,"favorite_count":24,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983891914207469656","full_text":"I’ve been reading \"Who Knew\" by Barry Diller this week. \n\nI had the chance to meet Barry twice during my early days at Tinder.\n\nThe first time was three days before Christmas in 2015. I was still new at the company and trying to make a name for myself, so I showed up on December 22nd with just a few others.\n\n“Who’s that guy in the tracksuit?” one of our youngest engineers asked, looking up from his monitor.\n\nI glanced over and saw Barry Diller, owner of IAC and one of Tinder’s biggest shareholders.\n\nI didn’t know it at the time, but Barry (then 75 years old) had a tradition of visiting the Tinder office right before Christmas every year. He’d walk the floor asking questions, genuinely curious about what everyone was building.\n\nI watched him approach one of our engineers and ask, “What are you working on?”\n\nThe engineer started explaining what he was doing in very technical terms, and Barry listened without interrupting. I don’t think the engineer knew who he was because if he did, I’m pretty sure he would’ve been a lot more nervous explaining his code!\n\nA year later, in 2016, I made sure to be in the office those same few days before Christmas. The office was mostly empty again and we had just moved into a much larger space.\n\nSure enough, the guy in the tracksuit showed up again, right on cue. Barry Diller.\n\nHe made his rounds, saying hello and asking the few of us still in the office the same question: “What are you working on?”\n\nOne of the central themes of \"Who Knew\" and of Barry’s career is his obsession with understanding how things work at the most fundamental level:\n\n\"Only if I slowed everything down could I begin to understand all the parts and then try to rearrange them into something coherent. I tend to make things worse in the beginning as I fumble around trying to get to basic truths. Instinct, which I prize almost all else, doesn’t work very well for me in abstruse matters.\n\nI have to get to the core DNA on any matter, its logical essence, before I can add anything of value. This takes a lot of time, often to the irritation of faster thinkers, but when it does crystallize, I can’t be deterred.\n\nI listen with an extra ear, highly attuned to hear a new truth among the cacophony of voices in the room. When I catch that note, no matter what I might have thought before, I’ll change course in a second.\n\nIf I’ve ever had any kind of secret sauce, it’s the ability to hear conflicting, creative ideas bombarded around the room and extract something valuable.\n\nRecently in a meeting, someone complained that I wasn’t being consistent. I replied that I’m never consistent; I’ll turn on a dime if I hear a better truth.” \n- (Barry Diller, Who Knew)\n\nLooking back, I realize that when he asked what we were building, it wasn’t about oversight or management control. It was pure curiosity.\n\nMost leaders want to look smart. Barry wanted to get smart and understand the smallest molecule of what we were building, even on the sleepy days before Christmas.\n\nThe best investors and leaders don’t chase outcomes. They want to understand the wiring underneath.\n\nShow up, ask questions & keep asking until it makes sense. The tracksuit is optional.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[11,161],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"441679284","name":"brett goldstein","screen_name":"thatguybg","indices":[0,10]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"thatguybg","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983843170493382696","view_count":778,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761820044000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@thatguybg Most consumer apps have evolved their business models to subscriptions (same as bottoms up enterprise) and most have tiered pricing at this point too.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"441679284","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983842584788398438","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,293],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"13955342","name":"Trace Vertical Ai Cohen","screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983868789059154119","view_count":518,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761826152000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@Trace_Cohen 100%. On Supabase, they had a cultish community who loved the product before the pre-seed.\n\nAs an investor who does enterprise & consumer like myself, it was helpful to underwrite through a consumer lens.\n\nNow it's a mass market developer product selling to large enterprises.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"13955342","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983867417655750680","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[11,110],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1979921","name":"Josh Elman","screen_name":"joshelman","indices":[0,10]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"joshelman","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983892716288405682","view_count":930,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761831857000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@joshelman 100%. Also fwiw I think Josh Elman is invested in almost all the best consumer apps of his vintage!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1979921","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983892303245885616","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,85],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"35647451","name":"Turner Novak 🍌🧢","screen_name":"TurnerNovak","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"TurnerNovak","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983927717734047759","view_count":667,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761840202000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@TurnerNovak Haha! This was before i got pitched because someone thought I was an LP.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"35647451","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983926158862262518","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,43],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1054947848","name":"Nicole Priel","screen_name":"smallbigtalk","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"smallbigtalk","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983846327105544322","view_count":212,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761820797000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@smallbigtalk would love to read the thesis","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1054947848","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983846102391791901","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,269],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"3014388155","name":"Jeddi","screen_name":"antinertia","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"antinertia","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983857862607827087","view_count":232,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761823547000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@antinertia Prosumer is what they’ve called it historically but those companies tend to get discounted in fundraising from what I’ve seen.\n\nProbably because investors view them as being “in between” both markets. \n\nSo I don’t advise calling yourself a prosumer company.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"3014388155","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983857075298943121","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,32],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"41771957","name":"Ryan Morris","screen_name":"RyanMorris55","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"RyanMorris55","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983893392791925073","view_count":161,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761832018000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@RyanMorris55 Thank you brother!","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"41771957","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983893276349415508","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,179],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"2363641","name":"jason yeh","screen_name":"jasonoliver","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"jasonoliver","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983952515470352895","view_count":431,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761846114000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@jasonoliver 100%. And shopping is coming fast with agentic e-commerce. ChatGPT (and its competitors) will end up owning dominant market share across multiple consumer categories.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"2363641","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983951551866831342","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[9,227],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"150388200","name":"Warren Shaeffer","screen_name":"wwshaef","indices":[0,8]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"wwshaef","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983946533159772285","view_count":272,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761844688000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@wwshaef I agree with your definition. Simple is very useful. \n\nMost bottoms-up software has consumer overlap. \n\nProductivity Software is a decent label but tends to devalue companies because there haven’t been many huge exits.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"150388200","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983945638405611746","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-01","value":1110,"startTime":1761868800000,"endTime":1761955200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,124],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"39191312","name":"Kirsten Green","screen_name":"kirstenagreen","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"kirstenagreen","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1984113931565330944","view_count":863,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761884598000,"favorite_count":7,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1984107536052842496","full_text":"@kirstenagreen “ChatGPT wasn’t necessarily designed as a consumer product, but consumers claimed it anyway.”\n\nExactly right.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"39191312","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1984107536052842496","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[7,130],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"22961818","name":"Todd Jackson","screen_name":"tjack","indices":[0,6]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"tjack","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1984358200276382017","view_count":247,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1761942837000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1983834443648278593","full_text":"@tjack That's a great list, and 100% agree.\n\nConsumer gets anchored on social and things like DTC which is an outdated definition.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"22961818","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1984344313393004585","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-02","value":11258,"startTime":1761955200000,"endTime":1762041600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/cf2xeuTten","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1984669264100618636/photo/1","id_str":"1984666463513559043","indices":[277,300],"media_key":"3_1984666463513559043","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4rzoiNbQAMI02X.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/cf2xeuTten","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1067,"w":1600,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":800,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":453,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":1067,"width":1600,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":72,"w":1600,"h":896},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1067,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":936,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":534,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1600,"h":1067}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1984666463513559043"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1718560501825933312","name":"Discipulus Ventures","screen_name":"DiscipulusVent","indices":[38,53]},{"id_str":"1213544133878370304","name":"Jakob Diepenbrock","screen_name":"jakobdiepen","indices":[73,85]},{"id_str":"1718560501825933312","name":"Discipulus Ventures","screen_name":"DiscipulusVent","indices":[38,53]},{"id_str":"1213544133878370304","name":"Jakob Diepenbrock","screen_name":"jakobdiepen","indices":[73,85]},{"id_str":"1333613797907582976","name":"Augustus Doricko","screen_name":"ADoricko","indices":[519,528]},{"id_str":"1716643091137056768","name":"Rainmaker Technology Corporation","screen_name":"RainmakerCorp","indices":[534,548]},{"id_str":"1152136922694766593","name":"Ted Feldmann","screen_name":"teddyfeld","indices":[550,560]},{"id_str":"1843811438332391427","name":"Durin","screen_name":"DurinMining","indices":[566,578]},{"id_str":"1435266698701991936","name":"Isaiah Taylor - making nuclear reactors","screen_name":"isaiah_p_taylor","indices":[610,626]},{"id_str":"1676587706896490496","name":"Valar Atomics","screen_name":"valaratomics","indices":[632,645]},{"id_str":"1213544133878370304","name":"Jakob Diepenbrock","screen_name":"jakobdiepen","indices":[657,669]},{"id_str":"1718560501825933312","name":"Discipulus Ventures","screen_name":"DiscipulusVent","indices":[2816,2831]}]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/cf2xeuTten","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1984669264100618636/photo/1","id_str":"1984666463513559043","indices":[277,300],"media_key":"3_1984666463513559043","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4rzoiNbQAMI02X.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/cf2xeuTten","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1067,"w":1600,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":800,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":453,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":1067,"width":1600,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":72,"w":1600,"h":896},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1067,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":936,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":534,"h":1067},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1600,"h":1067}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1984666463513559043"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1984669264100618636","view_count":11258,"bookmark_count":16,"created_at":1762017000000,"favorite_count":66,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":9,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1984669264100618636","full_text":"I spent Thursday in El Segundo at the @DiscipulusVent Demo Day hosted by @jakobdiepen and team. \n\nAs I walked up to the venue, I immediately saw three Bay Area investors standing in line. \n\nAll of them had flown in from San Francisco for the event, which was great to see. But when I walked through the doors, I realized it wasn’t just a Bay Area thing. The room was packed with investors from all over the country who’d made the same trip. Clearly, something real is happening here.\n\nThe day started with a panel with @ADoricko from @RainmakerCorp, @teddyfeld from @DurinMining (Ch. 1 portfolio company), and @isaiah_p_taylor from @valaratomics along with @jakobdiepen - who gave a quick history lesson on El Segundo’s roots.\n\nBefore World War II, this city was home to Douglas Aircraft, builder of the SBD Dauntless dive bomber and a symbol of American industrial strength. It’s no accident that so many “America First” companies are being built here again. Founders in El Segundo are carrying that legacy forward.\n\nThey showed a map of the current startup ecosystem, which is 55+ companies, and most of them have come into existence since 2023. \n\nI know 55 companies doesn't sound like a huge number, but as you think about the venture capital interest and momentum that El Segundo has, it's easy to imagine that number becoming 100’s and 1000’s in years to come in the city and surrounding areas. \n\nOne of the other most interesting messages was how El Segundo is evolving from being a bit of a meme (which was very intentional to get people to pay attention) to now deploying products in the physical world. \n\nAugustus from Rainmaker had just gotten back from a trip to Oregon where they deployed rain the prior day (I believe he said the cloud seeding operation was 100m+ gallons). \n\nTed from Durin had recently successfully completed his first drilling operation in Nevada. Both companies have done so on modest budgets, and the founders challenged the idea that hard tech is as capital-intensive as most venture capitalists think. \n\nThe demo day featured ten companies spanning a wide range of sectors, all united around one core theme: strengthening America.\n\nThese founders are tackling hard, meaningful problems in areas like energy, autonomous manufacturing, commodity trading, heavy equipment procurement, autonomous farming, and oil and gas.\n\nIt’s worth noting that many of the companies aren’t pure hardware plays. Some are software-first, and others are software-enabled hardware, which, frankly, is what all hardware is becoming.\n\nMy takeaway is that there doesn’t need to be such a hard divide between hardware and software investors. These worlds are starting to blend, and I expect that collaboration to accelerate over the next few years.\n\nWhat’s clear is that El Segundo is here to stay & that @DiscipulusVent is building something special (I’m a proud LP in the fund). The founders here are working on serious problems, and the momentum is real. I’d bet the next demo day will draw an even bigger crowd of investors from across the country.\n\nVery bullish on El Segundo & the next chapter for LA tech.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-03","value":2379,"startTime":1762041600000,"endTime":1762128000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,277],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1984846679720542704","view_count":2379,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1762059299000,"favorite_count":21,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":6,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1984846679720542704","full_text":"I grew up in the Bay Area as a Giants fan, but now live in Los Angeles and goes without saying, this city earned a championship this year. Congratulations to the Dodgers.\n\nFor anyone who’s been here, 2025 has been a brutal year for Los Angeles. The January 7th fires marked the start of years of loss and rebuilding. Tonight’s win gives people here something to rally around, something that actually feels good again.\n\nSports have a way of healing pain and heartbreak. Being in L.A. tonight feels like the city finally got a moment of relief.\n\nCongratulations to the Dodgers and to Los Angeles.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-04","value":0,"startTime":1762128000000,"endTime":1762214400000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-05","value":9220,"startTime":1762214400000,"endTime":1762300800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,54],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1985639448785174836","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/8rm1V9sGlK","expanded":"https://twitter.com/uialexk/status/1985639448785174836","display":"x.com/uialexk/status…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1985707818230452710","view_count":9198,"bookmark_count":5,"created_at":1762264611000,"favorite_count":26,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1985707818230452710","full_text":"We have entered the large narrow sans serif slop phase","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,291],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1457278696931405828","name":"rosie (🔟/🔟)","screen_name":"therosieum","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"therosieum","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1985840026744189139","view_count":22,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762296132000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1984987750647333350","full_text":"This was a great post.\n\n“The problem is, you can’t build anything meaningful in 18 months. Real infrastructure takes at least 3–5 years. Real product-market fit requires iteration over years, not quarters.”\n\nThat said, I actually think those timelines are compressing.\n\nInfra can now be built in 1–2 years, and PMF can happen in weeks or months for strong applications.\n\nWe just need more original ideas - not the 75th prediction market.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1457278696931405828","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1984987750647333350","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-06","value":0,"startTime":1762300800000,"endTime":1762387200000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-07","value":8735,"startTime":1762387200000,"endTime":1762473600000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,134],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"768929915844513792","name":"Jamesin Seidel","screen_name":"seidtweets","indices":[123,134]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1986437434213544227","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/XjktPxYNjP","expanded":"https://twitter.com/viraj__acharya/status/1986437434213544227","display":"x.com/viraj__acharya…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986494295663386907","view_count":4971,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762452122000,"favorite_count":9,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986494295663386907","full_text":"Jamesin killed it as always.\n\nThe best venture firms earn the right to be “partners” & not just investors. \n\nWell done @seidtweets","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"44196397","name":"Elon Musk","screen_name":"elonmusk","indices":[64,73]},{"id_str":"44196397","name":"Elon Musk","screen_name":"elonmusk","indices":[64,73]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986557513740001382","view_count":3764,"bookmark_count":4,"created_at":1762467194000,"favorite_count":18,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986557513740001382","full_text":"Tesla AGM right now is all about the robots 🤖\nA few quotes from @elonmusk:\n\nOn scale:\n“Optimus is going to be the biggest product of all time. Bigger than cell phones. Bigger than anything else.”\n\nOn use cases:\n“There will be 3–5 industrial robots for every personal robot.”\n\nOn speed:\n“We’re going to launch the fastest production ramp of any large manufactured product, starting with a million-unit per year production line in Fremont.”\n\nRobots aren’t coming. They’re already here.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-08","value":21540,"startTime":1762473600000,"endTime":1762560000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986839703291896042","view_count":9,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762534473000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986839703291896042","full_text":"The “hype video” startup trend will fade, just like every other form of attention arbitrage.\n\nI say that as someone who actually went to film school and loves video. But we’ve reached the point where agencies are producing hype videos for fundraising rounds just to trigger VC FOMO.\n\nVirality has never been easier to manufacture, or shorter-lived.\n\nSpending $25K on a product video might make sense from a valuation or dilution standpoint. But is that really the culture you want to build?\n\nAnd when the investors who FOMO’d into your round realize the growth story doesn’t hold up, how do you think that plays out?\n\nBuild great products. The hype video era is already getting stale.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986841507282964826","view_count":113,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1762534903000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986841507282964826","full_text":"The “hype video” startup trend will fade, just like every other form of attention arbitrage.\n\nI say that as someone who actually went to film school and loves video. But we’ve reached the point where agencies are producing hype videos for fundraising rounds just to trigger VC fomo. \n\nIt’s now part of the fundraising playbook:\n\nMake a pitch deck. Make a hype video. Go a little bit viral. Rinse and repeat.\n\nVirality has never been easier to manufacture, but it’s also never been shorter-lived.\n\nSpending $25K on a product video might make sense from a valuation or dilution standpoint. But is that really the culture you want to build?\n\nAnd when the investors who FOMO’d into your round realize the growth story doesn’t hold up, how do you think that plays out?\n\nBuild great products that solve real problems. The hype video era is already stale.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,275],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986848712908546121","view_count":18228,"bookmark_count":32,"created_at":1762536621000,"favorite_count":92,"quote_count":7,"reply_count":13,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986848712908546121","full_text":"The “hype video” startup trend will fade, just like every other form of attention arbitrage.\n\nI say that as someone who actually went to film school and loves video. But we’ve reached the point where agencies are producing hype videos for fundraising rounds just to create VC fomo. \n\nIt’s now part of the fundraising playbook:\n\nMake a pitch deck. Make a hype video. Go a little bit viral. Rinse & repeat.\n\nVirality has never been easier to manufacture, but it’s also never been shorter-lived. The investors you actually want around for the next decade can tell the difference.\n\nSpending $25K on a product video might make sense from a valuation or dilution standpoint. But is that really the culture you want to build?\n\nAnd when the investors who FOMO’d into your round realize the growth story doesn’t hold up, how do you think that plays out?\n\nBuild great products that solve real problems. The hype video era is already stale.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,215],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986892752286883962","view_count":3190,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1762547121000,"favorite_count":18,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986892752286883962","full_text":"The most important part of “staying in crypto” as an early stage investor is being completely unemotional about the markets.\n\nI feel nothing when our crypto book swings 20–30%.\n\nMaybe that’s unhealthy. But it works.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-09","value":175857,"startTime":1762560000000,"endTime":1762646400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,234],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"787810160513200129","name":"Chapter One","screen_name":"chapterone","indices":[50,61]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986969884362940562","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762565511000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986969884362940562","full_text":"Yesterday we locked in two deals that will define @chapterone’s next chapter.\n\nOne: an incubation with a major IP partner (a year in the making).\n\nTwo: a product we’ll launch publicly soon with a major tech platform. \n\nAlways cooking.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,239],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"787810160513200129","name":"Chapter One","screen_name":"chapterone","indices":[50,61]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986970650532327456","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762565693000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986970650532327456","full_text":"Yesterday we locked in two deals that will define @chapterone’s next chapter.\n\nOne: an incubation with a major IP partner (a year in the making).\n\nTwo: a product we’ll launch publicly soon with a well known tech platform. \n\nAlways cooking.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,232],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"787810160513200129","name":"Chapter One","screen_name":"chapterone","indices":[50,61]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1986970741779407185","view_count":6055,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1762565715000,"favorite_count":48,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986970741779407185","full_text":"Yesterday we locked in two deals that will define @chapterone’s next chapter.\n\nOne: an incubation with a major IP partner (a year in the making).\n\nTwo: a product we’ll launch publicly soon with a big tech platform. \n\nAlways cooking.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,281],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987236350836494777","view_count":164696,"bookmark_count":200,"created_at":1762629041000,"favorite_count":476,"quote_count":11,"reply_count":30,"retweet_count":21,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1987236350836494777","full_text":"Startup beef is always funny.\n\nYears ago, I worked at a marketplace & we decided Craigslist was our enemy. We built narratives around “beating” them, studied their every move, and even shaped internal goals around taking their users. I’m pretty sure they never thought about us once.\n\nLater, we shifted our obsession to TaskRabbit. Remember Taskrabbit? We spent so much energy trying to outdo them w/ pricing wars, feature debates, endless comparisons. But in the end, neither of us became a breakout, venture-scale success.\n\nThe real competitors were the ones playing a much bigger game: DoorDash, Instacart, Uber. We knew those founders personally, hung out with them at the same SF parties, but never saw them as direct competition. Turns out, they were just playing a different sport entirely.\n\nI see the same thing today in AI and crypto. Startups beefing over tiny overlaps, chasing small wins. Before you pick a fight, make sure you’re actually in a market worth winning. \n\nOtherwise, you’ll wake up every morning obsessed with a game that doesn’t matter.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,54],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"954060455831580672","name":"Molly O’Shea","screen_name":"MollySOShea","indices":[0,12]},{"id_str":"768929915844513792","name":"Jamesin Seidel","screen_name":"seidtweets","indices":[21,32]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"MollySOShea","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987168354260689078","view_count":85,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762612830000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1986824069094822264","full_text":"@MollySOShea Talk to @seidtweets - she will have ideas","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"954060455831580672","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1986824069094822264","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,107],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"21706010","name":"Daniel Pearson","screen_name":"danielpearson","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"danielpearson","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1987239060021387360","view_count":5021,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762629687000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1987236350836494777","full_text":"@danielpearson Love that Peter Thiel quote and very true.\n\nIf only we had venture funds at that point haha.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"21706010","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1987237809229599115","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-10","value":0,"startTime":1762646400000,"endTime":1762732800000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-11","value":0,"startTime":1762732800000,"endTime":1762819200000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-12","value":0,"startTime":1762819200000,"endTime":1762905600000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-13","value":0,"startTime":1762905600000,"endTime":1762992000000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-14","value":67507,"startTime":1762992000000,"endTime":1763078400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"4188045073","name":"Jordi Hays","screen_name":"jordihays","indices":[828,838]},{"id_str":"30736937","name":"John Coogan","screen_name":"johncoogan","indices":[841,852]},{"id_str":"1838288550569349120","name":"TBPN","screen_name":"tbpn","indices":[856,861]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988981359013163127","view_count":63,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763045084000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988981359013163127","full_text":"Venture Capital Musical Chairs\n\nWhen I first got into venture capital, I assumed that General Partners stayed at firms for most of their careers. From the outside, venture capital shops looked like stable institutions. At the very least, they felt more permanent than the startups they backed.\n\nThat assumption was dead wrong.\n\nBack then, I was at Tinder and a scout for Index Ventures. It was an awesome experience, but I definitely underestimated how turbulent things can be inside other venture firms I was co-investing with and getting to know more closely.\n\nThat turbulence has only accelerated in the last few years. Every week, I see partners leaving, firms reshaping their strategies, and LP relationships shifting. \n\nIt feels like watching ESPN at this point waiting for Shams to break some trade news. Luckily we have @jordihays & @johncoogan at @tbpn.\n\nFor founders, venture capital musical chairs feels like something happening on the other side of the table. You sense the industry shifting, but you’re busy building your company. Whatever chaos is unfolding inside venture firms isn’t exactly top of mind.\n\nBut you should be thinking about it a lot more. And here's why. \n\nWhen you raise from a venture firm, you don’t really raise from the firm. You raise from a specific partner. You take their calls, you trust their judgment, and you build your relationship around them. They’re the one who sits on your board, texts you late at night, and ideally, fights for you when things get tough. \n\nWhen they leave, you lose that advocate. Suddenly, the person who cared most about your survival inside the partnership is gone.\n\nIn today’s venture world, that partner may not even be around by the time your next fundraise rolls around. \n\nI was talking to a former partner at a multi-stage fund yesterday, and she told me that the average partner at a venture firm sticks around for 7 years. And when they leave, the implications for you are important to understand.\n\nWhat often happens next is that you become an “adopted company.” Other partners don’t rush to claim you, because supporting you doesn’t count toward their scoreboard. Venture is a business built on attribution, and if they didn’t source or lead your deal, the incentive to spend time helping you is low. You end up feeling like the kid at the dinner table nobody wants to introduce.\n\nBoard dynamics only make the problem worse. If your original partner leaves, their seat might be reassigned to someone who barely knows your business, or worse, someone who doesn’t care to. \n\nNow you’re wasting cycles re-educating a new person who has little emotional or financial attachment to your success. Instead of focusing on building, you’re back at square one, explaining the basics to someone who isn’t invested in your story.\n\nAnd then there’s the signaling risk. Other investors notice when your champion departs their firm. LPs notice too. Even if your company is performing well, your life will change.\n\n“Is the firm still supporting you?” You’ll get asked this question dozens of times by other investors, potential hires, and media. You can explain this pretty easily, but it’s just one of those annoying questions that you’ll have to talk about for many years to come.\n\nThis isn’t meant to be morbid. It’s a reminder to choose your partners carefully and understand their career trajectory and standing inside the firm.\n\nFundraising is chaotic right now. Bubble or not, founders and investors are speed-dating their way into big rounds, and everyone’s expected to build trust on a timeline that would be insane in any normal business relationship.\n\nMy best advice is don’t assume the partner you pick will be there forever. Get to know the rest of the partnership, understand how they think, and make sure you actually believe in the firm’s culture and ethos.\n\nA friend put it well yesterday: the only person who’s almost certainly sticking around is the founder of the firm. That’s the longest term partner you're getting into business with. You may not get much access to the founder(s) of a firm, but it’s still worth knowing their story, their reputation, and how they’ve shown up for founders over time.\n\nIf your deal sponsor is gone in a few years, would you still be proud to call that firm your investor? \n\nIf the answer is yes, great, but make sure you’re diligencing them as hard as they’re diligencing you.\n\nVenture Capital Musical Chairs isn’t stopping anytime soon. If anything, it will get much spicier as we understand which partners took massive AI swings that will generate many billions for their firms, or leave their firms holding the bag.\n\nIn either case, your partner still might leave. \n\nInvestors who crushed this AI wave might use that momentum to spin out and start their own firms. And the ones who didn’t get big wins in this cycle might be looking for new jobs soon for reasons we all understand.\n\nAs a founder, choose your partners carefully and make damn sure you’re not the last one left standing when the music stops. \n\nFin.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"4188045073","name":"Jordi Hays","screen_name":"jordihays","indices":[859,869]},{"id_str":"30736937","name":"John Coogan","screen_name":"johncoogan","indices":[872,883]},{"id_str":"1838288550569349120","name":"TBPN","screen_name":"tbpn","indices":[887,892]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988983199872004228","view_count":66136,"bookmark_count":126,"created_at":1763045523000,"favorite_count":165,"quote_count":6,"reply_count":19,"retweet_count":23,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"Venture Capital Musical Chairs (And Why Founders Should Care)\n\nWhen I first got into venture capital, I assumed that General Partners stayed at firms for most of their careers. From the outside, venture capital shops looked like stable institutions. At the very least, they felt more permanent than the startups they backed.\n\nThat assumption was dead wrong.\n\nBack then, I was at Tinder and a scout for Index Ventures. It was an awesome experience, but I definitely underestimated how turbulent things can be inside other venture firms I was co-investing with and getting to know more closely.\n\nThat turbulence has only accelerated in the last few years. Every week, I see partners leaving, firms reshaping their strategies, and LP relationships shifting. \n\nIt feels like watching ESPN at this point waiting for Shams to break some trade news. Luckily we have @jordihays & @johncoogan at @tbpn.\n\nFor founders, venture capital musical chairs feels like something happening on the other side of the table. You sense the industry shifting, but you’re busy building your company. Whatever chaos is unfolding inside venture firms isn’t exactly top of mind.\n\nBut you should be thinking about it a lot more. And here's why. \n\nWhen you raise from a venture firm, you don’t really raise from the firm. You raise from a specific partner. You take their calls, you trust their judgment, and you build your relationship around them. They’re the one who sits on your board, texts you late at night, and ideally, fights for you when things get tough. \n\nWhen they leave, you lose that advocate. Suddenly, the person who cared most about your survival inside the partnership is gone.\n\nIn today’s venture world, that partner may not even be around by the time your next fundraise rolls around. \n\nI was talking to a former partner at a multi-stage fund yesterday, and she told me that the average partner at a venture firm sticks around for 7 years. And when they leave, the implications for you are important to understand.\n\nWhat often happens next is that you become an “adopted company.” Other partners don’t rush to claim you, because supporting you doesn’t count toward their scoreboard. Venture is a business built on attribution, and if they didn’t source or lead your deal, the incentive to spend time helping you is low.\n\nBoard dynamics only make the problem worse. If your original partner leaves, their seat might be reassigned to someone who barely knows your business, or worse, someone who doesn’t care to. \n\nNow you’re wasting cycles re-educating a new person who has little emotional or financial attachment to your success. Instead of focusing on building, you’re back at square one, explaining the basics to someone who isn’t invested in your story.\n\nAnd then there’s the signaling risk. Other investors notice when your champion departs their firm. LPs notice too. Even if your company is performing well, your life will change.\n\n“Is the firm still supporting you?” You’ll get asked this question dozens of times by other investors, potential hires, and media. You can explain this pretty easily, but it’s just one of those annoying questions that you’ll have to talk about for many years to come.\n\nThis isn’t meant to be morbid. It’s a reminder to choose your partners carefully and understand their career trajectory and standing inside the firm.\n\nFundraising is chaotic right now. Bubble or not, founders and investors are speed-dating their way into big rounds, and everyone’s expected to build trust on a timeline that would be insane in any normal business relationship.\n\nMy best advice is don’t assume the partner you pick will be there forever. Get to know the rest of the partnership, understand how they think, and make sure you actually believe in the firm’s culture and ethos.\n\nA friend put it well yesterday: the only person who’s almost certainly sticking around is the founder of the firm. That’s the longest term partner you're getting into business with. You may not get much access to the founder(s) of a firm, but it’s still worth knowing their story, their reputation, and how they’ve shown up for founders over time.\n\nVenture Capital Musical Chairs isn’t stopping anytime soon. If anything, it will get much spicier as we understand which partners took massive AI swings that will generate many billions for their firms, or leave their firms holding the bag.\n\nIn either case, your partner still might leave. \n\nInvestors who crushed this AI wave might use that momentum to spin out and start their own firms. And the ones who didn’t get big wins in this cycle might be looking for new jobs soon for reasons we all understand.\n\nAs a founder, choose your partners carefully and make damn sure you’re not the last one left standing when the music stops. \n\nFin.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,75],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"35647451","name":"Turner Novak 🍌🧢","screen_name":"TurnerNovak","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"TurnerNovak","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988990321540399109","view_count":1308,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763047220000,"favorite_count":4,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"@TurnerNovak Very effective Sparknotes version - I need you to be my editor","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"35647451","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1988989896195756499","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-15","value":45268,"startTime":1763078400000,"endTime":1763164800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,87],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1989156238018683215","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/Ssm5bH6JtM","expanded":"https://twitter.com/rohanpaul_ai/status/1989156238018683215","display":"x.com/rohanpaul_ai/s…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989213951863955480","view_count":2628,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1763100538000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989213951863955480","full_text":"Solana FDV: $80B (feels cheap)\nA 1-year-old AI startup: $50B\n\nWelcome to pure-vibes VC.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,121],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rsKQuQih8o","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1989184813312680086/photo/1","id_str":"1989184305332174848","indices":[122,145],"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5sAligbQAAxQo3.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rsKQuQih8o","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":977,"y":403,"h":520,"w":520},{"x":1347,"y":59,"h":635,"w":635},{"x":507,"y":376,"h":589,"w":589}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":572,"y":236,"h":304,"w":304},{"x":789,"y":35,"h":372,"w":372},{"x":297,"y":220,"h":345,"w":345}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":324,"y":134,"h":172,"w":172},{"x":447,"y":19,"h":211,"w":211},{"x":168,"y":124,"h":195,"w":195}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":1833,"y":757,"h":975,"w":975},{"x":2527,"y":112,"h":1192,"w":1192},{"x":952,"y":705,"h":1106,"w":1106}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1152,"w":2048,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":675,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":2160,"width":3840,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":10,"w":3840,"h":2150},{"x":552,"y":0,"w":2160,"h":2160},{"x":685,"y":0,"w":1895,"h":2160},{"x":1092,"y":0,"w":1080,"h":2160},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":3840,"h":2160}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[{"display_url":"x.com/OpenAI/status/…","expanded_url":"https://x.com/OpenAI/status/1989138776585851038","url":"https://t.co/5gFtHQYNiu","indices":[98,121]}],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/rsKQuQih8o","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1989184813312680086/photo/1","id_str":"1989184305332174848","indices":[122,145],"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5sAligbQAAxQo3.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/rsKQuQih8o","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":977,"y":403,"h":520,"w":520},{"x":1347,"y":59,"h":635,"w":635},{"x":507,"y":376,"h":589,"w":589}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":572,"y":236,"h":304,"w":304},{"x":789,"y":35,"h":372,"w":372},{"x":297,"y":220,"h":345,"w":345}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":324,"y":134,"h":172,"w":172},{"x":447,"y":19,"h":211,"w":211},{"x":168,"y":124,"h":195,"w":195}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":1833,"y":757,"h":975,"w":975},{"x":2527,"y":112,"h":1192,"w":1192},{"x":952,"y":705,"h":1106,"w":1106}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1152,"w":2048,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":675,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":383,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":2160,"width":3840,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":10,"w":3840,"h":2150},{"x":552,"y":0,"w":2160,"h":2160},{"x":685,"y":0,"w":1895,"h":2160},{"x":1092,"y":0,"w":1080,"h":2160},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":3840,"h":2160}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1989184305332174848"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"quoted_status_id_str":"1983834443648278593","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/t56Kl9NM7f","expanded":"https://twitter.com/jmj/status/1983834443648278593","display":"x.com/jmj/status/198…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989184813312680086","view_count":19239,"bookmark_count":23,"created_at":1763093591000,"favorite_count":52,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":4,"retweet_count":2,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989184813312680086","full_text":"ChatGPT now has group chats.\n\nCongrats to the newest social network on the internet. Case closed.\nhttps://t.co/5gFtHQYNiu https://t.co/rsKQuQih8o","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,282],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989423657438121993","view_count":21867,"bookmark_count":60,"created_at":1763150536000,"favorite_count":102,"quote_count":5,"reply_count":24,"retweet_count":7,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"Vibe Investing Is the New Vibe Coding\n\nThe institutional memory of what happened in 2020–2022 is basically gone. It’s wild how quickly we as an industry forgot.\n\nI have a theory that our brains now process trauma & even financial bubbles in smaller and smaller increments. We’re living through the compression of emotional memory. Our tech industry systems take in stimuli that are too frequent, too loud, and too fast, so nothing sticks. \n\nI dug into my theory more (which you’ve likely felt intuitively but maybe haven’t articulated) and it turns out there’s actually a concept called “emotional amnesia\" which is a feeling numb or disconnected about what is happening around you.\n\nI won’t bore you with the academic details, but my takeaway as applied to venture capital is that the half-life on lessons learned (and in most businesses) is collapsing at the same pace you scroll a TikTok feed. We breeze past a $3B seed round at a $30B valuation like it’s a TMZ clip. \n\nAs a first-time manager who launched a fund in 2019, the 2020–2022 bubble left a permanent imprint on me. I’ll never forget what that period felt like. \n\nThe velocity, FOMO & the total detachment from fundamentals was intoxicating for everyone. Your seed check jumps from a $10M post to a $150M post in 30 days. Congrats… I guess? Because now you have to decide whether to follow on. And it’s a tier-one lead. What do you do?\n\nThat environment pushed every firm, including the great ones, into some objectively terrible decisions.\n\nAnd when I look at venture today, the industry barely resembles what it was even six years ago. We used to joke about “vibe investing” as the exception. The charismatic founder with cult-leader energy, the weird but magnetic pitch, the occasional “let’s take a flyer and see what happens.” Now it’s the norm. \n\nAura and an AI narrative = 10 term sheets.\n\nThere are insanely talented, credible operators building world-changing companies. But a $50B valuation for a pre-product seed round? Is that even venture capital? Call it whatever you want (and honestly we probably need a new category name) because it’s a completely different industry at this point.\n\nThe biggest takeaway is that at almost every stage from seed, growth, crossover, even public markets, we’re operating on vibes. Maybe I’m slowly becoming a boomer for even saying this.\n\nBut it's narrative over numbers, momentum over diligence, social proof over actual proof.\n\nCritics dunk on “vibe coding” as a Gen Z builder phenomenon that creates technical slop, but venture capital has built its own version: vibe investing.\n\nDrop a pitch deck into ChatGPT, run a Deep Research query, and boom “I don’t even need analysts anymore!” You skim the output in five minutes between pitch calls and try to stitch together a market thesis. Meanwhile the founder is a fundraising machine and every other firm is running the exact same Deep Research report you are.\n\nYou better move fast.\n\nSo you hop into Granola, grab one smart-sounding insight from your call, and paste it into Slack like you discovered fire. Your partners light up. Then you mention the founder already has multiple term sheets and suddenly everyone’s ready to clear their calendars.\n\nWe won’t know what turns into investment slop for a few years, but vibe-driven deals are definitely going to push that percentage way up. \n\nMaybe that’s fine & maybe this time really is different, and the outliers will paper over all the vibe-investing slop. But if you’re an emerging manager or running a concentrated portfolio, that’s a dangerous way to live. You don’t get to spray-and-pray your way out of vibes.\n\nRight now the vibes are insanely strong. It’s exciting. I feel just as fired up as everyone else and that energy is exactly why venture and technology keep marching forward.\n\nBut if I had one message today it would be this. \n\nGOOD LUCK AVOIDING THE SLOP.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,14],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"25232333","name":"Pat McGovern","screen_name":"pw_mcgovern","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"pw_mcgovern","lang":"qme","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989437186396332277","view_count":90,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763153761000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@pw_mcgovern 🔥","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"25232333","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989435465892606039","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,47],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"180030016","name":"davidfeiock","screen_name":"davidfeiock","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"davidfeiock","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989439081856864670","view_count":95,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763154213000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@davidfeiock Doing my best to please the people","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"180030016","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989438684970840404","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[16,33],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"90144647","name":"Viraj Acharya","screen_name":"Viraj__Acharya","indices":[0,15]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Viraj__Acharya","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989474730047672821","view_count":55,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763162712000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@Viraj__Acharya Haha yes happy to","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"90144647","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989469687676350678","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,283],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"729253848787738624","name":"george beall","screen_name":"GeorgePBeall","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"GeorgePBeall","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989425758935363750","view_count":254,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763151037000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@GeorgePBeall There will be a mean reversion as DPI gets realized. There is a category land grab right now, and the opportunity is massive, so capital is piling in. Long-term bullish on AI, but at some point, early stage investors will need to get back to some version of discipline.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"729253848787738624","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989425239139520664","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,292],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"13955342","name":"Trace Vertical Ai Cohen","screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Trace_Cohen","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989438237971300635","view_count":292,"bookmark_count":1,"created_at":1763154012000,"favorite_count":5,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"Agreed. I think the biggest mistake people will make is not knowing what game they're playing. An emerging manager with a smaller fund trying to execute on the multi-stage strategy is problematic. You have windows of opportunity where you can do things that are outside your core strategy, and putting guard rails on that bucket is hugely important. It's also really easy to let the guard rails down.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"13955342","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989437434082595107","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[11,103],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"192784466","name":"Jeff Richards","screen_name":"jrichlive","indices":[0,10]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"jrichlive","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989351865327472987","view_count":302,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763133419000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"@jrichlive Wild - will check back on this tweet in a few years so you can tell me about the 4th and 5th","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"192784466","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989350740587077902","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[14,37],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1449604717038825477","name":"Lucas Dickey","screen_name":"LucasDickey4","indices":[0,13]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"LucasDickey4","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989169728783524119","view_count":446,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763089994000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"@LucasDickey4 This is a great summary","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1449604717038825477","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989167000841777461","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-16","value":91,"startTime":1763164800000,"endTime":1763251200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[16,77],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1950463458648150016","name":"Stanley Wei","screen_name":"StanleyWei4748","indices":[0,15]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"StanleyWei4748","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989713118495490161","view_count":27,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763219549000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1989423657438121993","full_text":"@StanleyWei4748 They were supposed to be the roaring 20s and we got this haha","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1950463458648150016","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989711120332910993","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[7,282],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"6874252","name":"Indus Khaitan","screen_name":"1ndus","indices":[0,6]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"1ndus","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1989565798088937553","view_count":64,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763184425000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1988983199872004228","full_text":"There are great firms with more than four to five partners. I would just figure out who you're getting into business with and what that partners is standing at the firm. How long have they been there? Have they made any great investments yet? What's their career history look like? Are they someone who will bounce around a lot? Etc.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"6874252","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1989558109883519352","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-17","value":0,"startTime":1763251200000,"endTime":1763337600000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-18","value":18553,"startTime":1763337600000,"endTime":1763424000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,279],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990480739989868627","view_count":1894,"bookmark_count":2,"created_at":1763402564000,"favorite_count":16,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":3,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990480739989868627","full_text":"When vibe coding started getting popular, some people said, “we won’t need designers anymore, you can just design things yourself.” \n\nThe opposite happened.\n\nI talked to a well respected designer friend today who said freelance rates are climbing, and hiring a full-time designer in the U.S. now starts at $150K.\n\nHe shared a framing I liked:\n\n\"Teams understand the models are going to make everyone 7/10 designers. Which does eliminate the need for low end of the market. But if you can help someone ship 9 or 10/10 design you’ve never been more valuable because it’s now one of the core means of differentiation.\"\n\nAI made bad design easier. It made great design harder & more expensive.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,279],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990491897375436825","view_count":16659,"bookmark_count":48,"created_at":1763405224000,"favorite_count":101,"quote_count":2,"reply_count":16,"retweet_count":9,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990491897375436825","full_text":"When vibe coding started getting popular, some people said, “we won’t need designers anymore, you can just design things yourself.” \n\nThe opposite happened.\n\nI talked to a well respected designer friend today who said freelance design rates are getting more expensive, and hiring a full-time designer in the U.S. now starts at $150K.\n\nHe shared a framing I liked:\n\n\"Teams understand the models are going to make everyone 7/10 designers. Which does eliminate the need for low end of the market. But if you can help someone ship 9 or 10/10 design you’ve never been more valuable because it’s now one of the core means of differentiation.\"\n\nAI made bad design easier. It also made great design harder & more expensive.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-19","value":46640,"startTime":1763424000000,"endTime":1763510400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,146],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/CzdN0xANyq","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1990572770015809922/photo/1","id_str":"1990571616619933696","indices":[147,170],"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5_uVrybMAAQ8U6.png","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/CzdN0xANyq","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":609,"width":568,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":318},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":568},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":534,"h":609},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":305,"h":609},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":609}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/CzdN0xANyq","expanded_url":"https://x.com/jmj/status/1990572770015809922/photo/1","id_str":"1990571616619933696","indices":[147,170],"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5_uVrybMAAQ8U6.png","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/CzdN0xANyq","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":259,"y":286,"h":95,"w":95}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":609,"w":568,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":609,"width":568,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":318},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":568},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":534,"h":609},{"x":15,"y":0,"w":305,"h":609},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":568,"h":609}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1990571616619933696"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990572770015809922","view_count":5620,"bookmark_count":3,"created_at":1763424506000,"favorite_count":27,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":5,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990572770015809922","full_text":"LP inbox right now: a flood of GPs explaining why they didn’t see the Bezos AI deal.\n\n\"Our sourcing engine is being rebuilt from first principles\" https://t.co/CzdN0xANyq","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1990841773799682300","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/ivg0YeXKEN","expanded":"https://twitter.com/yrechtman/status/1990841773799682300","display":"x.com/yrechtman/stat…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990855280654233609","view_count":23462,"bookmark_count":70,"created_at":1763491861000,"favorite_count":79,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":7,"retweet_count":4,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990855280654233609","full_text":"One question that every seed investor should be asking themselves right now is whether they should be focusing more on early traction rounds, as opposed to pre-product investing. \n\nIn the past couple months, we've met a few teams raising rounds at $30M-$40M post-valuation who have real traction ($1-$4m ARR). \n\nAs a seed investor, would you rather invest in one of these rounds at $40m post or a pre-product seed round that calls itself an AI company at a $20M-$30M post? They're basically priced the same. \n\nSome of the early tractions teams call these rounds \"seed extensions,\" and others stretch it to a Series A label. \n\nFor whatever reason, they haven't been treated as \"hot companies\" by the Series A market, but they're building very solid businesses that are growing well. \n\nI haven't come up with an exact terminology for these companies. They're generally not pure-play AI deals, but are often utilizing AI in interesting ways. The headline on the deck doesn't read AI deal, but they're real businesses. \n\nFor the sake of this essay, let's just call them \"AI tweeners\". \n\nThere is a temptation to invest in what is new (ie the brand new AI company raising at $20-$30m post) because you're investing in a cool story & get to help bring a new company to market & call yourself the lead. \n\nBut maybe the $40m \"AI tweener\" is a better bet. By paying a slight premium, you invest in a company that's figured a lot out, has revenue, and is building in a category that likely has less competition. \n\nThe challenge with investing in the $40M post is that you likely called yourself a seed firm to all of your limited partners, so your entry price is going to look like what has historically been called a Series A. Is this strategy drift, or is it being a good investor? \n\nIf your goal is to build the highest performing portfolio, investing in \"AI tweeners\" is the part of market that is likely most undervalued right now. \n\nSo maybe you should stop calling yourself a seed fund & invest in early traction companies while the rest of the market is obsessed with finding the next hot pre-product seed deal. \n\nJust some thoughts.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":1,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"3393185261","name":"yoni rechtman","screen_name":"yrechtman","indices":[2202,2212]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990857909635518465","view_count":9799,"bookmark_count":47,"created_at":1763492488000,"favorite_count":73,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":8,"retweet_count":5,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990857909635518465","full_text":"One question that every seed investor should be asking themselves right now is whether they should be focusing more on early traction rounds, as opposed to pre-product investing. \n\nIn the past couple months, we've met a few teams raising rounds at $30M-$40M post-valuation who have real traction ($1-$4m ARR). \n\nAs a seed investor, would you rather invest in one of these rounds at $40m post or a pre-product seed round that calls itself an AI company at a $20M-$30M post? They're basically priced the same. \n\nSome of the early tractions teams call these rounds \"seed extensions,\" and others stretch it to a Series A label. \n\nFor whatever reason, they haven't been treated as \"hot companies\" by the Series A market, but they're building very solid businesses that are growing well. \n\nI haven't come up with an exact terminology for these companies. They're generally not pure-play AI deals, but are often utilizing AI in interesting ways. The headline on the deck doesn't read AI deal, but they're real businesses. \n\nFor the sake of this essay, let's just call them \"AI tweeners\". \n\nThere is a temptation to invest in what is new (ie the brand new AI company raising at $20-$30m post) because you're investing in a cool story & get to help bring a new company to market & call yourself the lead. \n\nBut maybe the $40m \"AI tweener\" is a better bet. By paying a slight premium, you invest in a company that's figured a lot out, has revenue, and is building in a category that likely has less competition. \n\nThe challenge with investing in the $40M post is that you likely called yourself a seed firm to all of your limited partners, so your entry price is going to look like what has historically been called a Series A. Is this strategy drift, or is it being a good investor? \n\nIf your goal is to build the highest performing portfolio, investing in \"AI tweeners\" is the part of market that is likely most undervalued right now. \n\nSo maybe you should stop calling yourself a seed fund & invest in early traction companies while the rest of the market is obsessed with finding the next hot pre-product seed deal. \n\nJust some thoughts.\n\nOriginally written as a response to a tweet by @yrechtman, but creating a separate essay so more people can hopefully read it.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1990865081354334636","view_count":7759,"bookmark_count":10,"created_at":1763494198000,"favorite_count":68,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":17,"retweet_count":4,"user_id_str":"11922492","conversation_id_str":"1990865081354334636","full_text":"I am noticing a lot of apathy and despair in the crypto community right now. This is funny to me because we should all be basking in the opportunity to actually build valuable applications and companies right now.\n\nOne of the most common complaints in prior cycles was that crypto founders didn't have a fighting chance to run the experiments that they wanted to test due to regulatory battles. \n\nIn the United States, we have a very supportive regulatory environment right now, and it is possible to be a U.S. crypto founder in categories like Defi which were previously very dicey. \n\nBut for some reason, the mood amongst founders and investors is especially solemn right now.\n\nMy take is that building products and companies that people care about is incredibly hard, especially with AI dominating the headlines. \n\nIt was easy to use regulatory constraints as an excuse in prior cycles, and now that we no longer have that issue, we have to actually go build products that people use every day & care about. \n\nAnd these products can't be another L1/L2 or some abstract technical infrastructure that increases TPS or makes blockchains cheaper. 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