Get live statistics and analysis of 哈世链闻 's profile on X / Twitter Archetype analysis The Connector 哈世链闻 is the ultimate blockchain news hub that thrives on connecting crypto enthusiasts with the latest updates and interactive giveaways. Through vibrant community engagement and continuous app improvements, they create a seamless experience for followers to stay informed and involved. Whether hosting giveaways or sharing breaking news, this profile masters the art of bringing people together.
🔥 Roast For someone who tweets more than a NEAR wallet logs transactions, you might want to consider if you’re running a news feed or single-handedly breaking Twitter’s record for ‘Most Gives-Away.’ At this rate, even crypto whales are wondering if they can follow you for free swag!
⚡️ Nice achievement Successfully launched and continuously improved the 哈世链闻 app across both Android and iOS platforms, enhancing user experience and consolidating their position as a go-to blockchain news source.
🌟 Life's purpose To bridge the gap in blockchain information dissemination by fostering a lively, inclusive community where enthusiasts can interact, learn, and grow their crypto knowledge together.
💬 Values and Beliefs Believes in the power of community engagement and shared knowledge to democratize access to blockchain and cryptocurrency news, empowering everyone to make informed decisions. Values transparency, accessibility, and active participation.
💪 Strength Exceptional at community building and maintaining engagement through regular interactive content like giveaways and app updates, which cultivates trust and loyalty.
🫣 Weakness Heavy focus on giveaways and follower interactions risks overshadowing original, thought-provoking content, potentially limiting deeper thought leadership.
⚡️ Growth audience tips To grow your audience on X, blend your engaging giveaways with more original, insightful commentary on blockchain trends or market analysis. Use Twitter Spaces or threads to spark deeper discussions and showcase your expertise beyond news sharing, turning casual followers into devoted community members.
💁 Bonus Fun fact: With over 101,000 tweets and nearly 17,000 accounts followed, 哈世链闻 is a social butterfly buzzing with activity, always ready with a giveaway to reward their loyal crowd!
Most engaged tweets of 哈世链闻People with Connector archetype Explore Related Archetypes If you enjoy the connector profiles, you might also like these personality types:
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| 深度】\n本周二（10月28日），Bitwise的Solana质押ETF (BSOL)、Canary的莱特币ETF (LTCN) 和HBAR ETF (HBAR) 将通过特殊的 “8-A文件” 形式，直接登陆纽交所和纳斯达克！\n这意味着它们 绕过了常规、漫长的SEC审批流程，实现了快速上市。这不仅是加密资产主流化的关键跃迁，更可能是一种全新的“上市范式”。 \n\n1、 什么是ETF？它为何如此重要？\n首先，让我们回归基础。ETF（Exchange-Traded Fund）即“交易所交易基金”。你可以把它想象成一个“资产篮子”，里面装着股票、债券或像黄金、比特币这样的商品。这个“篮子”本身又像股票一样，可以在证券交易所自由买卖。\n对普通投资者而言，ETF的最大优势是 “简单” 和 “合规”。\n简单：无需学习如何使用加密钱包、管理私钥，只需通过传统的股票账户就能投资加密资产。\n合规：ETF受到严格的金融监管，为机构和保守型投资者提供了安全、合规的入场通道。 \n\n2、 加密货币与ETF的结缘之路\n加密世界与ETF的首次“联姻”始于 比特币。经过长达十年的申请与等待，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）终于在 2024年1月 批准了首批比特币现货ETF。 这一事件被视为币圈的“诺曼底登陆”，它为市场带来了数百亿美元的机构资金，并直接推动了比特币价格创下历史新高。\n随后，以太坊现货ETF 也在 2025年5月 获批，进一步巩固了加密资产作为主流投资品的地位。 可以说，每一次主流币种的ETF获批，都是一次将加密市场与传统金融世界深度绑定的过程。 \n\n3、揭秘“8-A文件”：本次上市的秘密通道\n那么，为什么这次的ETF能如此之快？关键在于它们利用了 “证券法第12(b)条的8-A注册文件”。\n这是一种特殊的注册形式，通常用于将已在场外市场（OTC）交易的证券转换为主板上市公司。它允许发行方 绕过标准的S-1文件审批流程，后者正是比特币ETF耗费了数年时间才走完的漫长程序。\n这本质上是利用了现有法规的一个“巧妙后门”，是华尔街在加密领域的又一次规则创新。\n\n4、本次“闪电上市”，意味着什么？\n如果说BTC/ETH的ETF是打开了传统资金进入加密世界的大门，那么这次SOL、LTC等ETF的“闪电上市”，则 打开了通往更广阔加密生态的“高速公路”。\n资产类别的承认：这标志着监管和传统金融界不再将比特币视为唯一的“合格”加密资产。Solana这类高性能公链、莱特币这类老牌加密货币的价值得到了进一步认可。\n生态系统的繁荣：从10月28日开始，ETF将直接为Solana、Hedera等公链生态系统注入新的流动性和关注度，推动其链上应用（DeFi, NFT）的发展。\n上市范式的变革：这可能为后续其他“山寨币”ETF提供了一条全新的、更高效的上市路径，大大缩短了等待时间。 \n\n5、未来影响：我们正处在哪个阶段？\n我们正处在 “加密资产ETF化” 的加速阶段。本次事件预示着一个清晰的未来趋势：\n更多“山寨币”ETF将涌现：瑞波币（XRP）、卡尔达诺（ADA）等拥有场外信托产品的币种，很可能效仿这一路径，寻求快速上市。\n投资组合多样化：投资者将能像配置不同行业的股票一样，轻松地在投资组合中配置不同的加密资产，以分散风险。\n市场成熟度提升：随着监管框架的完善和更多合规产品的出现，加密市场的波动性可能逐渐降低，市场行为将更加理性。\n\n6、总结：一个新时代的序幕\n从比特币的十年长跑到如今Solana的“闪电”登陆，ETF正在以超乎预期的速度重塑加密货币的投资版图。\n10月28日，将作为“山寨币”ETF时代开启的日子被载入史册。它不仅是资金的入口，更是加密资产获得全球金融体系认可的“通行证”，而“8-A文件”则成为了这张通行证的“快速通道”。\n作为市场的见证者，我们正在亲历历史。\n\n#加密货币 #ETF #Solana #Crypto #美股 #区块链 #Web3 #sol #Hedera #LTC #Altcoin #SEC","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,32],"entities":{"hashtags":[{"indices":[328,343],"text":"Cryptocurrency"},{"indices":[344,355],"text":"Blockchain"},{"indices":[356,360],"text":"BTC"}],"symbols":[{"indices":[312,316],"text":"BTC"},{"indices":[317,321],"text":"PRE"},{"indices":[322,327],"text":"EXOD"}],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982998397780144186","view_count":13,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761618635000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1624286098737483778","conversation_id_str":"1982998397780144186","full_text":"贝克汉姆支持的Prenetics筹集4800万美元促进比特币储备\n\n哈世链闻消息，由大卫·贝克汉姆投资的健康科学公司Prenetics（PRE）通过一轮超额认购的股权融资筹集4800万美元，资金将用于拓展其健康品牌IM8，并推进比特币储备策略。公司公告称，通过行使认股权证，总融资额可能达到2.16亿美元。该轮融资吸引了Kraken、Exodus（EXOD）、GPTX和American Ventures等投资者。首席执行官Danny Yeung表示，这些资金将帮助IM8实现全球扩张，同时每日积累1枚比特币，以期在五年内实现收入和比特币持有量均达10亿美元的目标。目前，公司拥有268.4枚比特币，价值3090万美元。\n\n$BTC $PRE $EXOD #Cryptocurrency #Blockchain 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| 深度】\n本周二（10月28日），Bitwise的Solana质押ETF (BSOL)、Canary的莱特币ETF (LTCN) 和HBAR ETF (HBAR) 将通过特殊的 “8-A文件” 形式，直接登陆纽交所和纳斯达克！\n这意味着它们 绕过了常规、漫长的SEC审批流程，实现了快速上市。这不仅是加密资产主流化的关键跃迁，更可能是一种全新的“上市范式”。 \n\n1、 什么是ETF？它为何如此重要？\n首先，让我们回归基础。ETF（Exchange-Traded Fund）即“交易所交易基金”。你可以把它想象成一个“资产篮子”，里面装着股票、债券或像黄金、比特币这样的商品。这个“篮子”本身又像股票一样，可以在证券交易所自由买卖。\n对普通投资者而言，ETF的最大优势是 “简单” 和 “合规”。\n简单：无需学习如何使用加密钱包、管理私钥，只需通过传统的股票账户就能投资加密资产。\n合规：ETF受到严格的金融监管，为机构和保守型投资者提供了安全、合规的入场通道。 \n\n2、 加密货币与ETF的结缘之路\n加密世界与ETF的首次“联姻”始于 比特币。经过长达十年的申请与等待，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）终于在 2024年1月 批准了首批比特币现货ETF。 这一事件被视为币圈的“诺曼底登陆”，它为市场带来了数百亿美元的机构资金，并直接推动了比特币价格创下历史新高。\n随后，以太坊现货ETF 也在 2025年5月 获批，进一步巩固了加密资产作为主流投资品的地位。 可以说，每一次主流币种的ETF获批，都是一次将加密市场与传统金融世界深度绑定的过程。 \n\n3、揭秘“8-A文件”：本次上市的秘密通道\n那么，为什么这次的ETF能如此之快？关键在于它们利用了 “证券法第12(b)条的8-A注册文件”。\n这是一种特殊的注册形式，通常用于将已在场外市场（OTC）交易的证券转换为主板上市公司。它允许发行方 绕过标准的S-1文件审批流程，后者正是比特币ETF耗费了数年时间才走完的漫长程序。\n这本质上是利用了现有法规的一个“巧妙后门”，是华尔街在加密领域的又一次规则创新。\n\n4、本次“闪电上市”，意味着什么？\n如果说BTC/ETH的ETF是打开了传统资金进入加密世界的大门，那么这次SOL、LTC等ETF的“闪电上市”，则 打开了通往更广阔加密生态的“高速公路”。\n资产类别的承认：这标志着监管和传统金融界不再将比特币视为唯一的“合格”加密资产。Solana这类高性能公链、莱特币这类老牌加密货币的价值得到了进一步认可。\n生态系统的繁荣：从10月28日开始，ETF将直接为Solana、Hedera等公链生态系统注入新的流动性和关注度，推动其链上应用（DeFi, NFT）的发展。\n上市范式的变革：这可能为后续其他“山寨币”ETF提供了一条全新的、更高效的上市路径，大大缩短了等待时间。 \n\n5、未来影响：我们正处在哪个阶段？\n我们正处在 “加密资产ETF化” 的加速阶段。本次事件预示着一个清晰的未来趋势：\n更多“山寨币”ETF将涌现：瑞波币（XRP）、卡尔达诺（ADA）等拥有场外信托产品的币种，很可能效仿这一路径，寻求快速上市。\n投资组合多样化：投资者将能像配置不同行业的股票一样，轻松地在投资组合中配置不同的加密资产，以分散风险。\n市场成熟度提升：随着监管框架的完善和更多合规产品的出现，加密市场的波动性可能逐渐降低，市场行为将更加理性。\n\n6、总结：一个新时代的序幕\n从比特币的十年长跑到如今Solana的“闪电”登陆，ETF正在以超乎预期的速度重塑加密货币的投资版图。\n10月28日，将作为“山寨币”ETF时代开启的日子被载入史册。它不仅是资金的入口，更是加密资产获得全球金融体系认可的“通行证”，而“8-A文件”则成为了这张通行证的“快速通道”。\n作为市场的见证者，我们正在亲历历史。\n\n#加密货币 #ETF #Solana #Crypto #美股 #区块链 #Web3 #sol #Hedera #LTC 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不等，为投资者提供心理预期参考，但不应视为保证。\n\n3、比特币生态的变化\n\n近年来，比特币生态呈现“链上百花齐放”的特征。虽然以太坊和 Solana 的 DeFi、NFT 生态发展更活跃，但比特币正在悄然升级基础设施。闪电网络扩展通道数量已突破 5 万条，总容量达到 2,200 BTC，这意味着比特币在小额支付和跨链价值传输方面的能力正稳步提升。同时，多家主要交易所和支付平台已支持闪电网络支付，提升了链上实际应用价值。\n\n长期持币地址稳步增加，显示市场认同比特币价值储存功能。同时，跨链桥、Layer‑2 协议及机构金融产品的出现，让比特币生态开始逐步承载更多金融功能和应用场景。\n\n4、比特币生态的出路\n\n比特币生态的未来不在于简单模仿其他公链开发大量链上应用，而在于强化自身独有优势：稀缺性、安全性和可信价值。其出路主要有三条方向：第一，巩固价值储存和抗审查特性，使比特币成为全球可信资产；第二，通过闪电网络和 Layer‑2 技术提升可扩展性和流动性，使比特币价值能够在更广泛的生态中流动；第三，通过 ETF、战略资产配置和金融化应用，将比特币进一步嵌入主流金融体系，形成制度性支撑。\n\n这些路径让比特币能够在链上百花齐放的环境中形成独特生态优势，而非单纯追求链上应用数量。比特币的生态定位正在从“数字黄金”向“可信价值基础设施 + 金融化资产”转型，这种独特性正成为其在未来市场竞争中的核心优势。\n\n5、总结\n\n四年周期仍是理解比特币价格波动的重要参考，但在当前市场结构和机构化趋势下，其节奏和高点可能不再像历史上那样精准。市场情绪回暖、长期持币者占比增加，加上机构资金流入，为牛市提供潜在动力，但宏观经济和政策风险依然存在。比特币生态也在加速演进，通过基础设施升级、金融化应用以及闪电网络扩展，正走出一条与其他公链不同的独特道路。在链上百花齐放的时代，比特币的稀缺性、可信性和基础设施优势，将决定其在数字资产格局中的未来位置。\n\n#BTC #Halving #BTCcycle #Macro #ETF #机构化 #Ordinals #BRC20 #Layer2 #牛市 #投资分析 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DeFi：当收益变成陷阱\n\n编辑记者：哈世链闻\n\n11 月的加密市场，本该在以太坊生态的复苏中逐渐回暖，但 DeFi 的裂缝却在悄然扩大。10·11 与 11·3 的两场“稳定币事件”让 $USDe 与 $xUSD 相继陷入困境，而昨夜的 ListaDAO—MEV Capital—USDX 连锁事件，更像是在这道裂缝上重锤一击。\n\n这场风波不仅揭示了熊市里 DeFi 收益的幻觉，也让人看到，所谓“去中心化”的稳定币体系，正变得越来越像一个高杠杆、低透明的资金自循环机器。\n\n收益型稳定币的幻觉\n\n在危机爆发之前，收益型稳定币（YBS）被许多人视为 DeFi 的“低风险创新”：\n它承诺超额抵押、稳健收益、链上透明——听起来几乎完美。\n\n理论模型是这样的：抵押 1.1 美元资产，铸造 1 美元稳定币；将其投放到 DeFi 协议赚取利息；收益的一部分分给持币人，剩下的归项目方。\n然而，在高收益的压力下，这一结构被悄然扭曲——抵押比例被美化、资产类型被混合、杠杆被提前嵌入铸造环节。\n\n这正是 xUSD 事件中所暴露的逻辑：\nStream Finance 利用 Elixir 的 deUSD 撬动四倍杠杆，将杠杆环节前置至发行阶段，形成“铸造即杠杆”的结构。表面上是超额抵押，实际上却是风险浓缩。\n\n当 60% 的发行量掌握在发行方自己手里，所谓“清算机制”早已名存实亡。\n这类结构的风险在牛市中被收益掩盖，一旦市场下行，便会像积木般塌陷。\n\n主理人机制的幻觉\n\n过去一年，DeFi 借贷协议开始引入“主理人（Curator）”制度。\nMorpho、Euler 等项目让独立团队来管理金库、挑选资产，似乎能让风险更分散、更智能。\n可当 Stream 的 xUSD 被广泛接纳后，这种分散反而成为风险的扩散器——每一个金库都在复制相同的毒性资产，最终形成链式殉爆。\n\n讽刺的是，这种“精选市场”反而削弱了用户防御意识。\nAave 像京东自营，安全问题由平台兜底；Morpho 与 Euler 更像淘宝，把安全外包给卖家。\n散户在界面上看到的是“Curated Market”的光环，却未意识到——在出问题时，没人真正负责。\n\n⸻\n\n当 CEX 变透明，DeFi 变模糊\n\n这一轮熊市的最大讽刺是：CEX（中心化交易所）因监管变得越来越透明，而 DeFi 却重新走向灰色。\n协议间的合作不再依靠智能合约，而是依靠 Telegram 群里的返佣截图与“君子协定”。\n危机爆发时，人们看到的不是链上日志，而是一张张表情包式的对话记录。\n\nVitalik 一直呼吁建设“Low-Risk DeFi”，让以太坊成为可承载社会信任的金融基础设施。\n但现实是，收益的诱惑与杠杆的惯性正在让整个行业重蹈覆辙。\n在熊市中，“低风险”常常只是“高风险的最后阶段”。\n\n⸻\n\n昨夜：ListaDAO、MEV Capital 与 USDX 的临界点\n\n11 月 5 日深夜，市场再次上演了一场惊心动魄的链上剧。\nLista Lending 的 MEV USDT Vault 的 APY 一度飙升至 3570% ——当然，那是复利计算，实际年化约在 300% 左右，日化不到 1%。\n表面上看是“超高收益机会”，实际上则是风险的信号弹。\n\n凌晨时分，ListaDAO 官方移除了 30% 的借款利率上限。\n这一步极为关键，也是极为明智的。因为在 USDX 风险逐渐暴露的背景下，唯一的“逃生窗口”，就是通过 DEX 上残余的可清算流动性，尽快完成风险出清。\n⸻\n\nAdaptiveCurveIRM 的“高压曲线”\n\n在利率上限解除后，MEV Capital 的 AdaptiveCurveIRM（自适应利率曲线机制） 开始全面接管市场行为。\n这一机制的原理简单而高效：\n当借贷池使用率超过 90% 时，借款利率不再线性上升，而是进入倍数级别的加速区。\n如果仍无法将使用率压回 90%，曲线将整体上移，利率以指数级别继续飙升。\n\n这一机制最早在 FRAX 的 Curve 清算事件中发挥过作用——它不需要人工干预，只通过经济激励迫使借款人自发平仓，从而保护流动性池的健康。\nMEV Capital 这次同样选择了“放任”机制自动反应，没有过度干预。\n从风险控制角度看，这是合理的选择：\n更激进的利率曲线，反而是更稳健的风控工具。\n\n不过需要指出的是，MEV Capital 当前还背负着 Stream Finance 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高性能交易平台。对于部分人来说，可以先了解平台的功能和积分机制，等代币正式发行后，再关注发行细节和锁仓计划。\n你认为它会成为加密明星项目吗？\n\n本文仅供参考，不构成投资者建议，市场高风险，入市需谨慎。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,140],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/LQyjQ2bmMG","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988869722679701878/photo/1","id_str":"1988869707492171776","indices":[141,164],"media_key":"3_1988869707492171776","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5nidiObIAAUGRF.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/LQyjQ2bmMG","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":468,"w":1199,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":468,"w":1199,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":265,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":468,"width":1199,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":836,"h":468},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":468,"h":468},{"x":4,"y":0,"w":411,"h":468},{"x":92,"y":0,"w":234,"h":468},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1199,"h":468}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988869707492171776"}}},{"display_url":"pic.x.com/LQyjQ2bmMG","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988869722679701878/photo/1","id_str":"1988869612763860992","indices":[141,164],"media_key":"3_1988869612763860992","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5niYBVb0AAq1hK.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/LQyjQ2bmMG","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":600,"w":928,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":600,"w":928,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":440,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":600,"width":928,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":80,"w":928,"h":520},{"x":164,"y":0,"w":600,"h":600},{"x":201,"y":0,"w":526,"h":600},{"x":314,"y":0,"w":300,"h":600},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":928,"h":600}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988869612763860992"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/LQyjQ2bmMG","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988869722679701878/photo/1","id_str":"1988869707492171776","indices":[141,164],"media_key":"3_1988869707492171776","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5nidiObIAAUGRF.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/LQyjQ2bmMG","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":468,"w":1199,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":468,"w":1199,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":265,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":468,"width":1199,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":836,"h":468},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":468,"h":468},{"x":4,"y":0,"w":411,"h":468},{"x":92,"y":0,"w":234,"h":468},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1199,"h":468}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988869707492171776"}}},{"display_url":"pic.x.com/LQyjQ2bmMG","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988869722679701878/photo/1","id_str":"1988869612763860992","indices":[141,164],"media_key":"3_1988869612763860992","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5niYBVb0AAq1hK.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/LQyjQ2bmMG","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":600,"w":928,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":600,"w":928,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":440,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":600,"width":928,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":80,"w":928,"h":520},{"x":164,"y":0,"w":600,"h":600},{"x":201,"y":0,"w":526,"h":600},{"x":314,"y":0,"w":300,"h":600},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":928,"h":600}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988869612763860992"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988869722679701878","view_count":124,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763018467000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1624286098737483778","conversation_id_str":"1988869722679701878","full_text":"《恐惧重临：恐惧指数跌至14，币圈进入“极度寒意”时刻》\n\n最近市场的情绪，冷到有点刺骨。\n今天的加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数降至14，这意味着市场情绪正式进入「极度恐惧」区间。\n上一次跌到这个水平的，还是在去年大跌前后的那段“黑暗时刻”。那么问题来了——这一次的恐惧，到底意味着什么？\n\n什么是恐惧指数？\n\n恐惧与贪婪指数（Fear & Greed Index）是一个衡量市场情绪的指标，范围从 0 到 100。\n\n0-25 属于极度恐惧：投资者普遍悲观，市场处于情绪低谷。\n\n75-100 属于极度贪婪：投资者过于乐观，市场可能过热。\n\n当前的 14，是过去三个月来的最低值，说明资金情绪趋冷，恐慌蔓延，短期资金大规模撤离。\n\n市场为何突然降温？\n\n一是近期数据显示，24小时内全市场爆仓规模大幅上升（数亿美元量级），同时总未平仓头寸有所回落，说明资金在短时间内被强制平仓或主动撤出。衍生品市场去杠杆会迅速放大下跌：一部分被动爆仓造成价格进一步下探，触发更多自动清算，形成自放大下行。\n二是面对稳定币风险和高波动，做市商、套利基金会收缩盘口、撤回挂单或提高点差（尤其在 DeFi 与小众 DEX 上更明显），导致买盘稀疏、卖压更容易把价格推低——这在链上订单簿深度与 DEX 交易量中都有体现。新闻对“流动性收缩”和部分交易所/协议监测到的异常流动性问题已有报道。\n三是近期关于 ETF 批准窗口、监管机关动作（及市场对其可能介入/限制的担忧）使得机构资金变得谨慎。特别是 ETF/监管节奏有不确定性时，机构会倾向于减仓以等待规则明朗，进而减少买方支撑。相关讨论在近期关于 ETF 批准与监管节奏的报道中频繁出现。\n\n冰点中孕育机会\n\n短期看，恐惧情绪带来的是抛压和观望：\n新项目难获关注；\n主流币交投量下降；\n机构与散户同步避险。\n\n但长期看，极度恐惧往往孕育底部信号。\n历史上每一次指数跌破20，都对应了中长期的布局窗口，比如：2022年FTX暴雷时，恐惧指数在12附近，BTC后续从15,000美元反弹至30,000美元；\n2023年黑天鹅期间跌到10，结果半年后BTC翻倍。\n所以，「恐惧」有时候反而是聪明资金的“进场信号灯”。\n\n对比历史：每一次“极度恐惧”之后，市场都发生了什么？\n2020年3月，疫情暴跌时恐惧指数跌到8，BTC在5000美元附近。三个月后，价格翻倍。\n\n2022年11月，FTX崩盘时恐惧指数跌到12，BTC在1.5万美元。四个月后涨到3万美元。\n\n2023年8月，加息周期末期恐惧指数17，BTC在2.5万美元。三个月后反弹至4.2万美元。\n\n现在，2025年11月，恐惧指数14，BTC在5.8万美元。拐点是否又在酝酿？\n\n历史告诉我们：\n 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INX TGE前瞻：Patron NFT持有者获赠10万枚代币，跨链DeFi生态再升级》\n\n哈世链闻消息，跨链聚合 #DeFi平台 #Infinex 宣布即将启动 #INX代币 生成事件（TGE），#PatronNFT 持有者将按 1:100,000 比例空投 10 万枚 #INX，同时平台通过 #Sonar 销售和 #Craterun 活动进一步分发代币。\n本文将围绕 #INX 项目基础信息、治理机制、竞品对比及风险等进行通俗解读。\n\n项目基础信息\n\n项目简介\n#Infinex 是一个定位“超级 #crypto 应用”的平台，旨在将 #跨链聚合、#去中心化交易、#钱包管理、#桥接（bridge）、#交易终端、钱包扩展等功能整合到一个产品里，由 Kain Warwick（曾为 Synthetix 联合创始人）领导。 \n其主张：借助多条链、抽象 gas、极简用户体验，让用户能够像用集中式交易所（CEX）那样方便，又同时保有去中心化、自主控制钱包资产的体验。 \n\nINX 代币基本参数\n\n代币名称：#INX（也称 #INX代币）\n\n总供应量（或上限）：根据 Infinex 官方披露，流传关于 “10 b（10 0 亿）枚” 的数字，即 100 亿枚。\n空投/分发机制：Infinex 表示其 TGE（代币生成事件）将来：“100 % 的供应分配给 Patrons（Patron NFT 持有者）”这一说法。 \n具体为：总共有 100,000 个 Patron NFT，每一个将获得 100,000 枚 INX。 \n同时 uPatron 持有者（微型版本 NFT）将按 1:10 的比例获得 INX。 \n团队持有份额：官方披露团队份额占总量约 20%。\n团队代币将锁定 12 个月，然后再线性释放 12 个月。\n\n初始发行时间 / TGE 时间：尚无公开精确日期，仅知 “TGE 即将到来” 的声明发布于 2025 年11月。 \n初始发行价：官方披露并未给出一个明确的公开发行价数字，而在其 “Craterun 奖励”文中提到“基于 Patron NFT 价格，隐含 INX 价格约 5 美分（$0.05）” 的印象。 \n上线平台 / 支持链：Infinex 表示其将在 TGE 第一日支持三条新链：Monad、MegaEth、Fogo。 \n\n代币用途：\n\n持有 Patron NFT 可获 INX；\nINX 被用于平台激励分发、用户活动奖励；\n根据 Infinex 的叙述，INX 还用于捕获平台收入（例如通过平台产生的手续费或利润回购代币）以支持代币价值。\n\n是否有销毁机制 / 铸币增发机制 / 动态调节供应：\n官方披露中 没有明确提到销毁机制（burn）。\n关于是否增发或动态调节供应，目前披露为 “总供应量固定100 亿枚” 的表述，暂未见公开说明后续增发。\n也未明确提到减半、回购销毁等机制。\n\n流通量 / 初始流通盘比例 / FDV：\n因尚未 TGE，上线前流通量数据尚不可见。官方称分配给 Patron NFT，即 100 000 个 NFT × 100 000 枚 = 10 亿枚分配给 Patrons，其余供应（如 90 亿枚）可能由 Treasury／激励池／团队持有。\n\n核心亮点：\n多链支持 + 跨链抽象 gas 体验：Infinex 强调支持新链、桥接、无痛转移资产。\n公平分发机制：利用 NFT + Craterun 等活动让更多用户进入分发机制，而非传统 VC 私募。\n团队承诺锁仓机制：团队持币锁定 12 个月＋12 个月线性释放，体现一定长期绑定意愿。\n平台设计定位：尝试将去中心化钱包/交易体验与 CEX 体验融合，降低用户进入门槛。\n\n是否存在砸盘风险 / 价格稳定机制：\n由于尚未大规模流通，早期代币持有者（如 Patron NFT 持有者）若解锁即卖出，存在较大抛售压力。\n官方提及将用“平台收入回购代币”机制（Revenue → Buy‑Back）来支撑代币。\n但未见完整披露明确的价格稳定机制（例如锁仓期、回购比例、销毁机制）细节。\n\n合规风险：\n虽然项目在宣传中强调支持多链、新链、抽象 gas，但目前尚无明确披露其合规机制（如是否在特定地区注册）且新链支持本身带来技术与法律风险。\n如果代币被认定为证券或金融产品，可能受限当地法律监管。\n\n解锁风险：\n团队锁仓虽有明确机制，但早期持有者（如 Patron NFT 持有者）解锁期安排是否透明、是否有提前售卖风险仍需观察。\n倘若大量 Patron NFT 持有者在解锁后同步抛售，可能对价格造成下行压力。\n\nInfinex 的 INX 项目目前处于“预发行／TGE前”阶段，核心亮点聚焦于跨链 UX、用户分发及社区机制。但由于尚未完全上线披露，很多关键参数仍处于预设状态。\n\n治理机制\nPatron NFT 持有者：Infinex 表示该 NFT 持有者是获取 INX 的主要方式之一。 \n治理模型：根据 OakResearch 整理，Patron NFT 持有者将通过选举方式选出一个“委员会（council）”，由该委员会代表持有者执行治理决策（如选择资产、协议功能、技术路线）而非每一次都让全体持有者直接 vote。 \n决策方向包括：资产上线、功能实现、协议方向等。Patron NFT 作为治理身份凭证。\n代币治理权：目前尚无公开资料显示 INX 代币本身是否赋予投票权、权益参与等；主要治理权似乎与Patron NFT 关联。\n治理激励机制：平台通过 Crate Run、活动获取用户参与权，并通过这些方式扩大社区参与度。\n \n整体来看，治理机制试图结合 NFT + 代币分发＋用户参与，但具体运作细节（如委员会选举机制、代币持有者权利、提案机制、否决机制）尚未完全公开，仍需进一步观察。\n\n竞品对比\n为了更好理解 Infinex 所处的位置，我们选取两类竞品进行对比：跨链聚合／交易体验型项目，以及传统交易所代币／平台代币。\n竞品 A：跨链聚合／交易体验型\n\n1inch Network／其代币 1INCH：作为跨链聚合器＋ DEX 路由器，用户可通过代币参与治理、手续费返还等。\nParaswap 等同类聚合器。\n对比 Infinex 的优势与劣势：\n优势：Infinex 着重将“钱包”、“交易终端”、“桥接聚合”融合，并强调用户体验（UX）与多链支持，目标不仅仅是一个路由器。\n劣势：1inch 等已有成熟生态、用户基础、路由量，Infinex 为新项目，尚需证明其技术落地、用户增长及聚合效果。\n竞品 B：平台代币/交易所代币\nBNB (Binance 币)：用于交易所手续费折扣、生态建设、回购销毁。\n\nInfinex 的 INX 更偏项目生态代币＋社区分发机制，而不是传统交易所代币。其亮点在于“公平分发＋NFT ＋平台收入回购”。但传统交易所代币通常有成熟市场、流动性、较高认知度，Infinex 需努力建立信任与生态。\n\nInfinex 在“用户体验＋跨链＋公平分发”三大方向有亮点，若能成功落地，与上述竞品相比有差异化优势。但挑战也显著——生态是否能快速获取用户、技术是否稳定、代币分发机制是否公平、市场能否接受其新模式等。\n\n风险提示\n在考虑投资或参与该项目之前，需重点关注以下风险：\n流动性与抛售风险\n早期 NFT 持有者获得较大份额（每个 Patron NFT 可获 100,000 枚 INX），若解锁后集中出售，可能对价格造成冲击。\n虽团队锁仓机制明确，但其它持有者锁仓情况尚未披露。\n\n代币模型未完全落实风险\n虽然宣称“平台收入回购代币”作为价值支撑，但未见完整公开回购机制、回购比例、销毁计划等。\n若代币仅作奖励分发而无明确增值机制，可能导致价值承诺难以兑现。\n合规／监管风险\n项目跨链、全球化、涉及 NFT + 代币分发，可能受到各国证券法、税务法、KYC/AML 问题影响。\n若代币被认定为证券，可能被监管机构约束。\n生态执行风险\nInfinex 的愿景较大（多链支持、抽象 gas、钱包+终端一体化），但技术实现、用户获取、市场竞争均为挑战。若用户增长未达预期，代币价值支撑将受影响。\n竞品众多，用户迁移成本高。若体验不如预期，可能难以突破。\n解锁时间表透明度风险\n团队锁仓期明确，但 NFT 持有者、激励池、早期投资者解锁条款不一定完全透明。解锁后的大规模抛售可能带来负面冲击。\n价格波动与市场风险\n新代币上线初期，市场对其认知、流动性、支持者信心尚在建设中，价格极易波动。投资者需承受较高波动风险。\n\n请注意：本文仅为信息整理与分析，不构成任何投资建议。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,151],"entities":{"hashtags":[{"indices":[36,43],"text":"史上最长停摆"},{"indices":[36,43],"text":"史上最长停摆"},{"indices":[253,257],"text":"比特币"},{"indices":[260,264],"text":"山寨币"},{"indices":[575,581],"text":"美联储政策"},{"indices":[800,804],"text":"BTC"},{"indices":[861,865],"text":"BTC"},{"indices":[866,870],"text":"ETH"},{"indices":[875,879],"text":"山寨币"},{"indices":[912,916],"text":"ETF"}],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E7AteEIPsI","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988906513730044122/photo/1","id_str":"1988906495644450816","indices":[152,175],"media_key":"3_1988906495644450816","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5oD64xawAAXJM3.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E7AteEIPsI","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":749,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":749,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":424,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":749,"width":1200,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":77,"w":1200,"h":672},{"x":135,"y":0,"w":749,"h":749},{"x":181,"y":0,"w":657,"h":749},{"x":322,"y":0,"w":375,"h":749},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1200,"h":749}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988906495644450816"}}},{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E7AteEIPsI","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988906513730044122/photo/1","id_str":"1988906495644430337","indices":[152,175],"media_key":"3_1988906495644430337","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5oD64xacAE6Zr8.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E7AteEIPsI","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1200,"w":848,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":1200,"w":848,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":680,"w":481,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":1200,"width":848,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":153,"w":848,"h":475},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":848},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":967},{"x":248,"y":0,"w":600,"h":1200},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":1200}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988906495644430337"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E7AteEIPsI","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988906513730044122/photo/1","id_str":"1988906495644450816","indices":[152,175],"media_key":"3_1988906495644450816","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5oD64xawAAXJM3.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E7AteEIPsI","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":749,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":749,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":424,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":749,"width":1200,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":77,"w":1200,"h":672},{"x":135,"y":0,"w":749,"h":749},{"x":181,"y":0,"w":657,"h":749},{"x":322,"y":0,"w":375,"h":749},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1200,"h":749}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988906495644450816"}}},{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E7AteEIPsI","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988906513730044122/photo/1","id_str":"1988906495644430337","indices":[152,175],"media_key":"3_1988906495644430337","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5oD64xacAE6Zr8.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E7AteEIPsI","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1200,"w":848,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":1200,"w":848,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":680,"w":481,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":1200,"width":848,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":153,"w":848,"h":475},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":848},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":967},{"x":248,"y":0,"w":600,"h":1200},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":1200}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988906495644430337"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988906513730044122","view_count":31,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763027239000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1624286098737483778","conversati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40 天的“#史上最长停摆”，美国政府终于确认可以恢复运作。这意味着财政部 TGA（Treasury General Account，总账户）终于可以“开闸”，释放过去几周被锁在账户中的巨额资金——大约 1 万亿美元的流动性即将重新回到市场。\n\n停摆期间，由于政府无法按计划支出，TGA 从约 3000 亿美元猛增至超过 1 万亿美元，相当于短短 40 天里把超过 7000 亿美元从市场中抽走，造成了结构性的“美元荒”。这一流动性紧缩，是导致 #比特币 和 #山寨币 在 11 月初非但守不住 10 万美元，甚至跌破 9.9 万美元的关键因素。\n值得注意的是：为什么说政府开门后，市场大概率是先跌后涨呢？原因在于两个因素的错位叠加：\n\n一个是数据黑洞引发短期恐慌，停摆导致劳工统计局（BLS）和其他关键数据部门瘫痪。9 月就业数据是“拼凑”，10 月 CPI、PPI、PCE 等通胀数据甚至可能缺失。美联储主席鲍威尔一向强调“数据驱动”（Data-Dependent），但现在“无数据可依”，导致市场无法判断未来货币政策走向。\n\n这种不确定性让华尔街交易员倾向于抛售高风险资产，市场短期出现回调，哪怕政府刚开门、流动性即将释放。\n10 月 31 日，隔夜拆借利率飙升至 4.22%，高于 #美联储政策 上限 4%，银行纷纷冲向美联储紧急窗口，总额达 503.5 亿美元，显示市场“缺钱”的恐慌真实存在。\n\n二是流动性释放尚未完全入市，虽然 TGA 1 万亿美元即将释放，但市场的“蓄水池”——RRP（逆回购工具）余额已降至不足 800 亿美元，无法吸收所有流动性。这意味着资金短期内需要寻找合适的风险资产配置，这个过程存在错配和短期震荡，导致市场先跌后涨。\n\n对于加密市场而言，政府开门带来的先跌后涨格局，有几个直接影响：\n短期波动加大：#BTC 可能会在 10万美元附近经历震荡。\n长期流动性利好：TGA 的释放会直接流入银行准备金，推动风险资产配置，包括 #BTC、#ETH 和主要 #山寨币。\nETF 和合规资金加速入场：SEC 复工后，将批准更多山寨币 #ETF，为市场注入合法资金，山寨币也会有利好。\n\n类似情况曾在历史上出现过：\n\n2013 年美国政府部分停摆：停摆结束前比特币短线下跌约 15%，停摆结束后一周内快速反弹 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Gate首发上线Play Solana现货交易\n\n哈世链闻消息，Gate将于2025年11月14日22:00（UTC+8）首发上线Play Solana (PLAYSOLANA)现货交易。\n\n$PLAYSOLANA #GateExchange #Cryptocurrency #Blockchain #Solana #CryptoTrading","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,182],"entities":{"hashtags":[{"indices":[275,290],"text":"Cryptocurrency"},{"indices":[291,302],"text":"Blockchain"},{"indices":[303,312],"text":"Coinbase"},{"indices":[313,321],"text":"Binance"}],"symbols":[{"indices":[264,269],"text":"BANK"},{"indices":[270,274],"text":"MET"}],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988973526364364911","view_count":21,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763043216000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1624286098737483778","conversation_id_str":"1988973526364364911","full_text":"币安交易所实时公告： 币安上线Lorenzo Protocol (BANK)和Meteora (MET)\n\n哈世链闻消息，币安推出Lorenzo Protocol (BANK)和Meteora (MET)，计划于2025年11月13日22:00上线。届时用户可通过币安理财、闪兑和一键买币等平台购买这些加密货币。用户可以使用信用卡、Google Pay、Apple Pay等方式购买，并在现货上线后一小时内开始交易。此外，这些代币可在币安的全仓、逐仓杠杆中进行支持。币安提醒用户新上币种可能波动较大，建议交易时注意风险管理。\n\n$BANK $MET #Cryptocurrency #Blockchain #Coinbase 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Internet Group 是一家金融科技（FinTech）公司，致力于打造“互联网金融基础设施”。其核心目标是将区块链、稳定币、数字资产基础设施与传统金融系统连接起来。\n\n主营业务\n主要可拆分为以下几类：\n稳定币发行与流通：公司是知名稳定币 USD Coin（USDC）的主要发行方之一，其发行、赎回、管理及流通规模是其核心资产。\n准备金／利息收入：USDC 背后的准备金（通常为现金或短期国债等低风险资产）为公司带来利息或回报。\n平台与开发者服务：公司提供 API、钱包／铸币／赎币服务，帮助开发者、金融机构、支付公司将稳定币或数字资产集成进其业务。\n区块链基础设施扩张：公司推出的 Arc Network（Layer-1 区块链）测试网、“Circle Payments Network”（CPN）支付网络等，意在构建生态平台，未来可能推出原生代币。\n\n市场与竞争环境\n市场需求：随着区块链应用（如 DeFi、链上支付、跨境结算）扩展，稳定币作为桥梁资产与链上工具地位加强。\n竞争与风险：USDC 虽具规模，但仍面临如 Tether USD（USDT）等先行者竞争；此外，监管、利率、信任机制、流通安全等均为潜在挑战。\n\n模式亮点\n网络效应：USDC 流通规模越大、链上应用越广，公司越能从中获益。\n成本／规模杠杆：稳定币规模扩大后，稀释了单位成本，提升盈利。\n长期愿景为 “互联网经济 OS”：公司管理层提出，其不仅是稳定币发行方，更定位为构建下一代互联网金融操作系统。\n\n最新业绩 &成长动能\n\nQ3 2025 财报关键数据\n根据公司披露：\nUSDC 流通规模约 737 亿美元，年增长约 108%。 \n本季度“总收入 + 储备收入”约 7.40 亿美元，同比增长约 66%。\n 净利润约 2.14 亿美元，同比增长约 202%。\n调整后 EBITDA 约 1.66 亿美元，同比增长约 78%。 \n公司宣布其 Arc 公测网已吸引 100 + 家金融或科技公司参与；正在探索推出 Arc 原生代币。 \n公司更新全年“Other Revenue”（即非储备相关收入）预期至 9000–10000 万美元。 \n\n解读：成长驱动力\n流通规模翻倍以上，说明其稳定币产品在市场上的渗透及采用显著加速。\n收入及盈利大幅增长，表明不仅规模扩大，且盈利能力初步显现。\n业务结构开始从单纯“准备金利息”向“生态／平台服务”扩展（“Other Revenue”增长、Arc／CPN 等战略项目推进）。\n虽市场反应谨慎（如因利率下降可能影响利息收益）但从经营数据看，公司成长性明显。\n\n行业地位与竞争比较\n在稳定币发行市场，USDC 是主要资产之一，且其流通规模和链上交易量都在迅速扩张。\n\n公司通过扩展支付网络、区块链生态、代币化资产服务，试图从“一张稳定币”扩展到“一个平台生态”。\n相比仅发行稳定币的机构，Circle 的优势在于构建更广泛的基础设施，但同时也承担更高成长型投资与平台构建风险。\n行业风险包括监管（如稳定币定义、合规要求）、利率环境（影响准备金收益）、技术／信任风险（储备透明度、用户信心）等。\n\n估值数据\n\n根据 StockAnalysis，当前市值约 USD 20.7 B，企业价值（EV）约 USD 21.55 B。\n主要估值比率（截至最近）：\nP/S（市销率）约 4.61 倍。 \nEV/Revenue ≈ 15.10 倍。 \nP/B（市净率）约 13.69 倍。 \n根据 SimplyWallSt：P/S 约 10.7 倍（不同数据源略有差别）且指出其较同业偏高。\n \n估值分析\n\n为便于理解，构建两个基本估值情景：保守与乐观。\n\n保守情景\n假设未来 2-3 年内，USDC 流通规模继续增长，但增长速度放缓，营收增长逐渐稳定。\n假设营收从本季度 ~0.74 亿美元 ×4（全年化约 3 亿美元）增长至 ~20 亿美元。\n假设给予 P/S 市销率约 6-8 倍。\n理论市值约 20 亿 × 6 ≈ 120 亿 美元至 20 亿 × 8 ≈ 160 亿 美元。\n若股本未变，对应每股目标价应依据当前流通股数折算。\n\n乐观情景\n假设公司生态结构成功建立，USDC 流通规模及平台服务迅猛扩张，营收增长至如 50-100 亿美元水平。\n假设给予更高 P/S 倍数，例如 10-12 倍。\n若营收达 50 亿美元 ×10 = 500 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| 深度】\n本周二（10月28日），Bitwise的Solana质押ETF (BSOL)、Canary的莱特币ETF (LTCN) 和HBAR ETF (HBAR) 将通过特殊的 “8-A文件” 形式，直接登陆纽交所和纳斯达克！\n这意味着它们 绕过了常规、漫长的SEC审批流程，实现了快速上市。这不仅是加密资产主流化的关键跃迁，更可能是一种全新的“上市范式”。 \n\n1、 什么是ETF？它为何如此重要？\n首先，让我们回归基础。ETF（Exchange-Traded Fund）即“交易所交易基金”。你可以把它想象成一个“资产篮子”，里面装着股票、债券或像黄金、比特币这样的商品。这个“篮子”本身又像股票一样，可以在证券交易所自由买卖。\n对普通投资者而言，ETF的最大优势是 “简单” 和 “合规”。\n简单：无需学习如何使用加密钱包、管理私钥，只需通过传统的股票账户就能投资加密资产。\n合规：ETF受到严格的金融监管，为机构和保守型投资者提供了安全、合规的入场通道。 \n\n2、 加密货币与ETF的结缘之路\n加密世界与ETF的首次“联姻”始于 比特币。经过长达十年的申请与等待，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）终于在 2024年1月 批准了首批比特币现货ETF。 这一事件被视为币圈的“诺曼底登陆”，它为市场带来了数百亿美元的机构资金，并直接推动了比特币价格创下历史新高。\n随后，以太坊现货ETF 也在 2025年5月 获批，进一步巩固了加密资产作为主流投资品的地位。 可以说，每一次主流币种的ETF获批，都是一次将加密市场与传统金融世界深度绑定的过程。 \n\n3、揭秘“8-A文件”：本次上市的秘密通道\n那么，为什么这次的ETF能如此之快？关键在于它们利用了 “证券法第12(b)条的8-A注册文件”。\n这是一种特殊的注册形式，通常用于将已在场外市场（OTC）交易的证券转换为主板上市公司。它允许发行方 绕过标准的S-1文件审批流程，后者正是比特币ETF耗费了数年时间才走完的漫长程序。\n这本质上是利用了现有法规的一个“巧妙后门”，是华尔街在加密领域的又一次规则创新。\n\n4、本次“闪电上市”，意味着什么？\n如果说BTC/ETH的ETF是打开了传统资金进入加密世界的大门，那么这次SOL、LTC等ETF的“闪电上市”，则 打开了通往更广阔加密生态的“高速公路”。\n资产类别的承认：这标志着监管和传统金融界不再将比特币视为唯一的“合格”加密资产。Solana这类高性能公链、莱特币这类老牌加密货币的价值得到了进一步认可。\n生态系统的繁荣：从10月28日开始，ETF将直接为Solana、Hedera等公链生态系统注入新的流动性和关注度，推动其链上应用（DeFi, NFT）的发展。\n上市范式的变革：这可能为后续其他“山寨币”ETF提供了一条全新的、更高效的上市路径，大大缩短了等待时间。 \n\n5、未来影响：我们正处在哪个阶段？\n我们正处在 “加密资产ETF化” 的加速阶段。本次事件预示着一个清晰的未来趋势：\n更多“山寨币”ETF将涌现：瑞波币（XRP）、卡尔达诺（ADA）等拥有场外信托产品的币种，很可能效仿这一路径，寻求快速上市。\n投资组合多样化：投资者将能像配置不同行业的股票一样，轻松地在投资组合中配置不同的加密资产，以分散风险。\n市场成熟度提升：随着监管框架的完善和更多合规产品的出现，加密市场的波动性可能逐渐降低，市场行为将更加理性。\n\n6、总结：一个新时代的序幕\n从比特币的十年长跑到如今Solana的“闪电”登陆，ETF正在以超乎预期的速度重塑加密货币的投资版图。\n10月28日，将作为“山寨币”ETF时代开启的日子被载入史册。它不仅是资金的入口，更是加密资产获得全球金融体系认可的“通行证”，而“8-A文件”则成为了这张通行证的“快速通道”。\n作为市场的见证者，我们正在亲历历史。\n\n#加密货币 #ETF #Solana #Crypto #美股 #区块链 #Web3 #sol #Hedera #LTC #Altcoin #SEC","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,32],"entities":{"hashtags":[{"indices":[328,343],"text":"Cryptocurrency"},{"indices":[344,355],"text":"Blockchain"},{"indices":[356,360],"text":"BTC"}],"symbols":[{"indices":[312,316],"text":"BTC"},{"indices":[317,321],"text":"PRE"},{"indices":[322,327],"text":"EXOD"}],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982998397780144186","view_count":13,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761618635000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1624286098737483778","conversation_id_str":"1982998397780144186","full_text":"贝克汉姆支持的Prenetics筹集4800万美元促进比特币储备\n\n哈世链闻消息，由大卫·贝克汉姆投资的健康科学公司Prenetics（PRE）通过一轮超额认购的股权融资筹集4800万美元，资金将用于拓展其健康品牌IM8，并推进比特币储备策略。公司公告称，通过行使认股权证，总融资额可能达到2.16亿美元。该轮融资吸引了Kraken、Exodus（EXOD）、GPTX和American Ventures等投资者。首席执行官Danny Yeung表示，这些资金将帮助IM8实现全球扩张，同时每日积累1枚比特币，以期在五年内实现收入和比特币持有量均达10亿美元的目标。目前，公司拥有268.4枚比特币，价值3090万美元。\n\n$BTC $PRE $EXOD #Cryptocurrency #Blockchain 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| 深度】\n本周二（10月28日），Bitwise的Solana质押ETF (BSOL)、Canary的莱特币ETF (LTCN) 和HBAR ETF (HBAR) 将通过特殊的 “8-A文件” 形式，直接登陆纽交所和纳斯达克！\n这意味着它们 绕过了常规、漫长的SEC审批流程，实现了快速上市。这不仅是加密资产主流化的关键跃迁，更可能是一种全新的“上市范式”。 \n\n1、 什么是ETF？它为何如此重要？\n首先，让我们回归基础。ETF（Exchange-Traded Fund）即“交易所交易基金”。你可以把它想象成一个“资产篮子”，里面装着股票、债券或像黄金、比特币这样的商品。这个“篮子”本身又像股票一样，可以在证券交易所自由买卖。\n对普通投资者而言，ETF的最大优势是 “简单” 和 “合规”。\n简单：无需学习如何使用加密钱包、管理私钥，只需通过传统的股票账户就能投资加密资产。\n合规：ETF受到严格的金融监管，为机构和保守型投资者提供了安全、合规的入场通道。 \n\n2、 加密货币与ETF的结缘之路\n加密世界与ETF的首次“联姻”始于 比特币。经过长达十年的申请与等待，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）终于在 2024年1月 批准了首批比特币现货ETF。 这一事件被视为币圈的“诺曼底登陆”，它为市场带来了数百亿美元的机构资金，并直接推动了比特币价格创下历史新高。\n随后，以太坊现货ETF 也在 2025年5月 获批，进一步巩固了加密资产作为主流投资品的地位。 可以说，每一次主流币种的ETF获批，都是一次将加密市场与传统金融世界深度绑定的过程。 \n\n3、揭秘“8-A文件”：本次上市的秘密通道\n那么，为什么这次的ETF能如此之快？关键在于它们利用了 “证券法第12(b)条的8-A注册文件”。\n这是一种特殊的注册形式，通常用于将已在场外市场（OTC）交易的证券转换为主板上市公司。它允许发行方 绕过标准的S-1文件审批流程，后者正是比特币ETF耗费了数年时间才走完的漫长程序。\n这本质上是利用了现有法规的一个“巧妙后门”，是华尔街在加密领域的又一次规则创新。\n\n4、本次“闪电上市”，意味着什么？\n如果说BTC/ETH的ETF是打开了传统资金进入加密世界的大门，那么这次SOL、LTC等ETF的“闪电上市”，则 打开了通往更广阔加密生态的“高速公路”。\n资产类别的承认：这标志着监管和传统金融界不再将比特币视为唯一的“合格”加密资产。Solana这类高性能公链、莱特币这类老牌加密货币的价值得到了进一步认可。\n生态系统的繁荣：从10月28日开始，ETF将直接为Solana、Hedera等公链生态系统注入新的流动性和关注度，推动其链上应用（DeFi, NFT）的发展。\n上市范式的变革：这可能为后续其他“山寨币”ETF提供了一条全新的、更高效的上市路径，大大缩短了等待时间。 \n\n5、未来影响：我们正处在哪个阶段？\n我们正处在 “加密资产ETF化” 的加速阶段。本次事件预示着一个清晰的未来趋势：\n更多“山寨币”ETF将涌现：瑞波币（XRP）、卡尔达诺（ADA）等拥有场外信托产品的币种，很可能效仿这一路径，寻求快速上市。\n投资组合多样化：投资者将能像配置不同行业的股票一样，轻松地在投资组合中配置不同的加密资产，以分散风险。\n市场成熟度提升：随着监管框架的完善和更多合规产品的出现，加密市场的波动性可能逐渐降低，市场行为将更加理性。\n\n6、总结：一个新时代的序幕\n从比特币的十年长跑到如今Solana的“闪电”登陆，ETF正在以超乎预期的速度重塑加密货币的投资版图。\n10月28日，将作为“山寨币”ETF时代开启的日子被载入史册。它不仅是资金的入口，更是加密资产获得全球金融体系认可的“通行证”，而“8-A文件”则成为了这张通行证的“快速通道”。\n作为市场的见证者，我们正在亲历历史。\n\n#加密货币 #ETF #Solana #Crypto #美股 #区块链 #Web3 #sol #Hedera #LTC 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不等，为投资者提供心理预期参考，但不应视为保证。\n\n3、比特币生态的变化\n\n近年来，比特币生态呈现“链上百花齐放”的特征。虽然以太坊和 Solana 的 DeFi、NFT 生态发展更活跃，但比特币正在悄然升级基础设施。闪电网络扩展通道数量已突破 5 万条，总容量达到 2,200 BTC，这意味着比特币在小额支付和跨链价值传输方面的能力正稳步提升。同时，多家主要交易所和支付平台已支持闪电网络支付，提升了链上实际应用价值。\n\n长期持币地址稳步增加，显示市场认同比特币价值储存功能。同时，跨链桥、Layer‑2 协议及机构金融产品的出现，让比特币生态开始逐步承载更多金融功能和应用场景。\n\n4、比特币生态的出路\n\n比特币生态的未来不在于简单模仿其他公链开发大量链上应用，而在于强化自身独有优势：稀缺性、安全性和可信价值。其出路主要有三条方向：第一，巩固价值储存和抗审查特性，使比特币成为全球可信资产；第二，通过闪电网络和 Layer‑2 技术提升可扩展性和流动性，使比特币价值能够在更广泛的生态中流动；第三，通过 ETF、战略资产配置和金融化应用，将比特币进一步嵌入主流金融体系，形成制度性支撑。\n\n这些路径让比特币能够在链上百花齐放的环境中形成独特生态优势，而非单纯追求链上应用数量。比特币的生态定位正在从“数字黄金”向“可信价值基础设施 + 金融化资产”转型，这种独特性正成为其在未来市场竞争中的核心优势。\n\n5、总结\n\n四年周期仍是理解比特币价格波动的重要参考，但在当前市场结构和机构化趋势下，其节奏和高点可能不再像历史上那样精准。市场情绪回暖、长期持币者占比增加，加上机构资金流入，为牛市提供潜在动力，但宏观经济和政策风险依然存在。比特币生态也在加速演进，通过基础设施升级、金融化应用以及闪电网络扩展，正走出一条与其他公链不同的独特道路。在链上百花齐放的时代，比特币的稀缺性、可信性和基础设施优势，将决定其在数字资产格局中的未来位置。\n\n#BTC #Halving #BTCcycle #Macro #ETF #机构化 #Ordinals #BRC20 #Layer2 #牛市 #投资分析 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DeFi：当收益变成陷阱\n\n编辑记者：哈世链闻\n\n11 月的加密市场，本该在以太坊生态的复苏中逐渐回暖，但 DeFi 的裂缝却在悄然扩大。10·11 与 11·3 的两场“稳定币事件”让 $USDe 与 $xUSD 相继陷入困境，而昨夜的 ListaDAO—MEV Capital—USDX 连锁事件，更像是在这道裂缝上重锤一击。\n\n这场风波不仅揭示了熊市里 DeFi 收益的幻觉，也让人看到，所谓“去中心化”的稳定币体系，正变得越来越像一个高杠杆、低透明的资金自循环机器。\n\n收益型稳定币的幻觉\n\n在危机爆发之前，收益型稳定币（YBS）被许多人视为 DeFi 的“低风险创新”：\n它承诺超额抵押、稳健收益、链上透明——听起来几乎完美。\n\n理论模型是这样的：抵押 1.1 美元资产，铸造 1 美元稳定币；将其投放到 DeFi 协议赚取利息；收益的一部分分给持币人，剩下的归项目方。\n然而，在高收益的压力下，这一结构被悄然扭曲——抵押比例被美化、资产类型被混合、杠杆被提前嵌入铸造环节。\n\n这正是 xUSD 事件中所暴露的逻辑：\nStream Finance 利用 Elixir 的 deUSD 撬动四倍杠杆，将杠杆环节前置至发行阶段，形成“铸造即杠杆”的结构。表面上是超额抵押，实际上却是风险浓缩。\n\n当 60% 的发行量掌握在发行方自己手里，所谓“清算机制”早已名存实亡。\n这类结构的风险在牛市中被收益掩盖，一旦市场下行，便会像积木般塌陷。\n\n主理人机制的幻觉\n\n过去一年，DeFi 借贷协议开始引入“主理人（Curator）”制度。\nMorpho、Euler 等项目让独立团队来管理金库、挑选资产，似乎能让风险更分散、更智能。\n可当 Stream 的 xUSD 被广泛接纳后，这种分散反而成为风险的扩散器——每一个金库都在复制相同的毒性资产，最终形成链式殉爆。\n\n讽刺的是，这种“精选市场”反而削弱了用户防御意识。\nAave 像京东自营，安全问题由平台兜底；Morpho 与 Euler 更像淘宝，把安全外包给卖家。\n散户在界面上看到的是“Curated Market”的光环，却未意识到——在出问题时，没人真正负责。\n\n⸻\n\n当 CEX 变透明，DeFi 变模糊\n\n这一轮熊市的最大讽刺是：CEX（中心化交易所）因监管变得越来越透明，而 DeFi 却重新走向灰色。\n协议间的合作不再依靠智能合约，而是依靠 Telegram 群里的返佣截图与“君子协定”。\n危机爆发时，人们看到的不是链上日志，而是一张张表情包式的对话记录。\n\nVitalik 一直呼吁建设“Low-Risk DeFi”，让以太坊成为可承载社会信任的金融基础设施。\n但现实是，收益的诱惑与杠杆的惯性正在让整个行业重蹈覆辙。\n在熊市中，“低风险”常常只是“高风险的最后阶段”。\n\n⸻\n\n昨夜：ListaDAO、MEV Capital 与 USDX 的临界点\n\n11 月 5 日深夜，市场再次上演了一场惊心动魄的链上剧。\nLista Lending 的 MEV USDT Vault 的 APY 一度飙升至 3570% ——当然，那是复利计算，实际年化约在 300% 左右，日化不到 1%。\n表面上看是“超高收益机会”，实际上则是风险的信号弹。\n\n凌晨时分，ListaDAO 官方移除了 30% 的借款利率上限。\n这一步极为关键，也是极为明智的。因为在 USDX 风险逐渐暴露的背景下，唯一的“逃生窗口”，就是通过 DEX 上残余的可清算流动性，尽快完成风险出清。\n⸻\n\nAdaptiveCurveIRM 的“高压曲线”\n\n在利率上限解除后，MEV Capital 的 AdaptiveCurveIRM（自适应利率曲线机制） 开始全面接管市场行为。\n这一机制的原理简单而高效：\n当借贷池使用率超过 90% 时，借款利率不再线性上升，而是进入倍数级别的加速区。\n如果仍无法将使用率压回 90%，曲线将整体上移，利率以指数级别继续飙升。\n\n这一机制最早在 FRAX 的 Curve 清算事件中发挥过作用——它不需要人工干预，只通过经济激励迫使借款人自发平仓，从而保护流动性池的健康。\nMEV Capital 这次同样选择了“放任”机制自动反应，没有过度干预。\n从风险控制角度看，这是合理的选择：\n更激进的利率曲线，反而是更稳健的风控工具。\n\n不过需要指出的是，MEV Capital 当前还背负着 Stream Finance 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高性能交易平台。对于部分人来说，可以先了解平台的功能和积分机制，等代币正式发行后，再关注发行细节和锁仓计划。\n你认为它会成为加密明星项目吗？\n\n本文仅供参考，不构成投资者建议，市场高风险，入市需谨慎。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,140],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/LQyjQ2bmMG","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988869722679701878/photo/1","id_str":"1988869707492171776","indices":[141,164],"media_key":"3_1988869707492171776","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5nidiObIAAUGRF.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/LQyjQ2bmMG","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":468,"w":1199,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":468,"w":1199,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":265,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":468,"width":1199,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":836,"h":468},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":468,"h":468},{"x":4,"y":0,"w":411,"h":468},{"x":92,"y":0,"w":234,"h":468},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1199,"h":468}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988869707492171776"}}},{"display_url":"pic.x.com/LQyjQ2bmMG","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988869722679701878/photo/1","id_str":"1988869612763860992","indices":[141,164],"media_key":"3_1988869612763860992","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5niYBVb0AAq1hK.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/LQyjQ2bmMG","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":600,"w":928,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":600,"w":928,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":440,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":600,"width":928,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":80,"w":928,"h":520},{"x":164,"y":0,"w":600,"h":600},{"x":201,"y":0,"w":526,"h":600},{"x":314,"y":0,"w":300,"h":600},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":928,"h":600}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988869612763860992"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/LQyjQ2bmMG","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988869722679701878/photo/1","id_str":"1988869707492171776","indices":[141,164],"media_key":"3_1988869707492171776","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5nidiObIAAUGRF.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/LQyjQ2bmMG","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":468,"w":1199,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":468,"w":1199,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":265,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":468,"width":1199,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":836,"h":468},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":468,"h":468},{"x":4,"y":0,"w":411,"h":468},{"x":92,"y":0,"w":234,"h":468},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1199,"h":468}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988869707492171776"}}},{"display_url":"pic.x.com/LQyjQ2bmMG","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988869722679701878/photo/1","id_str":"1988869612763860992","indices":[141,164],"media_key":"3_1988869612763860992","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5niYBVb0AAq1hK.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/LQyjQ2bmMG","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":600,"w":928,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":600,"w":928,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":440,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":600,"width":928,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":80,"w":928,"h":520},{"x":164,"y":0,"w":600,"h":600},{"x":201,"y":0,"w":526,"h":600},{"x":314,"y":0,"w":300,"h":600},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":928,"h":600}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988869612763860992"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988869722679701878","view_count":124,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763018467000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1624286098737483778","conversation_id_str":"1988869722679701878","full_text":"《恐惧重临：恐惧指数跌至14，币圈进入“极度寒意”时刻》\n\n最近市场的情绪，冷到有点刺骨。\n今天的加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数降至14，这意味着市场情绪正式进入「极度恐惧」区间。\n上一次跌到这个水平的，还是在去年大跌前后的那段“黑暗时刻”。那么问题来了——这一次的恐惧，到底意味着什么？\n\n什么是恐惧指数？\n\n恐惧与贪婪指数（Fear & Greed Index）是一个衡量市场情绪的指标，范围从 0 到 100。\n\n0-25 属于极度恐惧：投资者普遍悲观，市场处于情绪低谷。\n\n75-100 属于极度贪婪：投资者过于乐观，市场可能过热。\n\n当前的 14，是过去三个月来的最低值，说明资金情绪趋冷，恐慌蔓延，短期资金大规模撤离。\n\n市场为何突然降温？\n\n一是近期数据显示，24小时内全市场爆仓规模大幅上升（数亿美元量级），同时总未平仓头寸有所回落，说明资金在短时间内被强制平仓或主动撤出。衍生品市场去杠杆会迅速放大下跌：一部分被动爆仓造成价格进一步下探，触发更多自动清算，形成自放大下行。\n二是面对稳定币风险和高波动，做市商、套利基金会收缩盘口、撤回挂单或提高点差（尤其在 DeFi 与小众 DEX 上更明显），导致买盘稀疏、卖压更容易把价格推低——这在链上订单簿深度与 DEX 交易量中都有体现。新闻对“流动性收缩”和部分交易所/协议监测到的异常流动性问题已有报道。\n三是近期关于 ETF 批准窗口、监管机关动作（及市场对其可能介入/限制的担忧）使得机构资金变得谨慎。特别是 ETF/监管节奏有不确定性时，机构会倾向于减仓以等待规则明朗，进而减少买方支撑。相关讨论在近期关于 ETF 批准与监管节奏的报道中频繁出现。\n\n冰点中孕育机会\n\n短期看，恐惧情绪带来的是抛压和观望：\n新项目难获关注；\n主流币交投量下降；\n机构与散户同步避险。\n\n但长期看，极度恐惧往往孕育底部信号。\n历史上每一次指数跌破20，都对应了中长期的布局窗口，比如：2022年FTX暴雷时，恐惧指数在12附近，BTC后续从15,000美元反弹至30,000美元；\n2023年黑天鹅期间跌到10，结果半年后BTC翻倍。\n所以，「恐惧」有时候反而是聪明资金的“进场信号灯”。\n\n对比历史：每一次“极度恐惧”之后，市场都发生了什么？\n2020年3月，疫情暴跌时恐惧指数跌到8，BTC在5000美元附近。三个月后，价格翻倍。\n\n2022年11月，FTX崩盘时恐惧指数跌到12，BTC在1.5万美元。四个月后涨到3万美元。\n\n2023年8月，加息周期末期恐惧指数17，BTC在2.5万美元。三个月后反弹至4.2万美元。\n\n现在，2025年11月，恐惧指数14，BTC在5.8万美元。拐点是否又在酝酿？\n\n历史告诉我们：\n 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INX TGE前瞻：Patron NFT持有者获赠10万枚代币，跨链DeFi生态再升级》\n\n哈世链闻消息，跨链聚合 #DeFi平台 #Infinex 宣布即将启动 #INX代币 生成事件（TGE），#PatronNFT 持有者将按 1:100,000 比例空投 10 万枚 #INX，同时平台通过 #Sonar 销售和 #Craterun 活动进一步分发代币。\n本文将围绕 #INX 项目基础信息、治理机制、竞品对比及风险等进行通俗解读。\n\n项目基础信息\n\n项目简介\n#Infinex 是一个定位“超级 #crypto 应用”的平台，旨在将 #跨链聚合、#去中心化交易、#钱包管理、#桥接（bridge）、#交易终端、钱包扩展等功能整合到一个产品里，由 Kain Warwick（曾为 Synthetix 联合创始人）领导。 \n其主张：借助多条链、抽象 gas、极简用户体验，让用户能够像用集中式交易所（CEX）那样方便，又同时保有去中心化、自主控制钱包资产的体验。 \n\nINX 代币基本参数\n\n代币名称：#INX（也称 #INX代币）\n\n总供应量（或上限）：根据 Infinex 官方披露，流传关于 “10 b（10 0 亿）枚” 的数字，即 100 亿枚。\n空投/分发机制：Infinex 表示其 TGE（代币生成事件）将来：“100 % 的供应分配给 Patrons（Patron NFT 持有者）”这一说法。 \n具体为：总共有 100,000 个 Patron NFT，每一个将获得 100,000 枚 INX。 \n同时 uPatron 持有者（微型版本 NFT）将按 1:10 的比例获得 INX。 \n团队持有份额：官方披露团队份额占总量约 20%。\n团队代币将锁定 12 个月，然后再线性释放 12 个月。\n\n初始发行时间 / TGE 时间：尚无公开精确日期，仅知 “TGE 即将到来” 的声明发布于 2025 年11月。 \n初始发行价：官方披露并未给出一个明确的公开发行价数字，而在其 “Craterun 奖励”文中提到“基于 Patron NFT 价格，隐含 INX 价格约 5 美分（$0.05）” 的印象。 \n上线平台 / 支持链：Infinex 表示其将在 TGE 第一日支持三条新链：Monad、MegaEth、Fogo。 \n\n代币用途：\n\n持有 Patron NFT 可获 INX；\nINX 被用于平台激励分发、用户活动奖励；\n根据 Infinex 的叙述，INX 还用于捕获平台收入（例如通过平台产生的手续费或利润回购代币）以支持代币价值。\n\n是否有销毁机制 / 铸币增发机制 / 动态调节供应：\n官方披露中 没有明确提到销毁机制（burn）。\n关于是否增发或动态调节供应，目前披露为 “总供应量固定100 亿枚” 的表述，暂未见公开说明后续增发。\n也未明确提到减半、回购销毁等机制。\n\n流通量 / 初始流通盘比例 / FDV：\n因尚未 TGE，上线前流通量数据尚不可见。官方称分配给 Patron NFT，即 100 000 个 NFT × 100 000 枚 = 10 亿枚分配给 Patrons，其余供应（如 90 亿枚）可能由 Treasury／激励池／团队持有。\n\n核心亮点：\n多链支持 + 跨链抽象 gas 体验：Infinex 强调支持新链、桥接、无痛转移资产。\n公平分发机制：利用 NFT + Craterun 等活动让更多用户进入分发机制，而非传统 VC 私募。\n团队承诺锁仓机制：团队持币锁定 12 个月＋12 个月线性释放，体现一定长期绑定意愿。\n平台设计定位：尝试将去中心化钱包/交易体验与 CEX 体验融合，降低用户进入门槛。\n\n是否存在砸盘风险 / 价格稳定机制：\n由于尚未大规模流通，早期代币持有者（如 Patron NFT 持有者）若解锁即卖出，存在较大抛售压力。\n官方提及将用“平台收入回购代币”机制（Revenue → Buy‑Back）来支撑代币。\n但未见完整披露明确的价格稳定机制（例如锁仓期、回购比例、销毁机制）细节。\n\n合规风险：\n虽然项目在宣传中强调支持多链、新链、抽象 gas，但目前尚无明确披露其合规机制（如是否在特定地区注册）且新链支持本身带来技术与法律风险。\n如果代币被认定为证券或金融产品，可能受限当地法律监管。\n\n解锁风险：\n团队锁仓虽有明确机制，但早期持有者（如 Patron NFT 持有者）解锁期安排是否透明、是否有提前售卖风险仍需观察。\n倘若大量 Patron NFT 持有者在解锁后同步抛售，可能对价格造成下行压力。\n\nInfinex 的 INX 项目目前处于“预发行／TGE前”阶段，核心亮点聚焦于跨链 UX、用户分发及社区机制。但由于尚未完全上线披露，很多关键参数仍处于预设状态。\n\n治理机制\nPatron NFT 持有者：Infinex 表示该 NFT 持有者是获取 INX 的主要方式之一。 \n治理模型：根据 OakResearch 整理，Patron NFT 持有者将通过选举方式选出一个“委员会（council）”，由该委员会代表持有者执行治理决策（如选择资产、协议功能、技术路线）而非每一次都让全体持有者直接 vote。 \n决策方向包括：资产上线、功能实现、协议方向等。Patron NFT 作为治理身份凭证。\n代币治理权：目前尚无公开资料显示 INX 代币本身是否赋予投票权、权益参与等；主要治理权似乎与Patron NFT 关联。\n治理激励机制：平台通过 Crate Run、活动获取用户参与权，并通过这些方式扩大社区参与度。\n \n整体来看，治理机制试图结合 NFT + 代币分发＋用户参与，但具体运作细节（如委员会选举机制、代币持有者权利、提案机制、否决机制）尚未完全公开，仍需进一步观察。\n\n竞品对比\n为了更好理解 Infinex 所处的位置，我们选取两类竞品进行对比：跨链聚合／交易体验型项目，以及传统交易所代币／平台代币。\n竞品 A：跨链聚合／交易体验型\n\n1inch Network／其代币 1INCH：作为跨链聚合器＋ DEX 路由器，用户可通过代币参与治理、手续费返还等。\nParaswap 等同类聚合器。\n对比 Infinex 的优势与劣势：\n优势：Infinex 着重将“钱包”、“交易终端”、“桥接聚合”融合，并强调用户体验（UX）与多链支持，目标不仅仅是一个路由器。\n劣势：1inch 等已有成熟生态、用户基础、路由量，Infinex 为新项目，尚需证明其技术落地、用户增长及聚合效果。\n竞品 B：平台代币/交易所代币\nBNB (Binance 币)：用于交易所手续费折扣、生态建设、回购销毁。\n\nInfinex 的 INX 更偏项目生态代币＋社区分发机制，而不是传统交易所代币。其亮点在于“公平分发＋NFT ＋平台收入回购”。但传统交易所代币通常有成熟市场、流动性、较高认知度，Infinex 需努力建立信任与生态。\n\nInfinex 在“用户体验＋跨链＋公平分发”三大方向有亮点，若能成功落地，与上述竞品相比有差异化优势。但挑战也显著——生态是否能快速获取用户、技术是否稳定、代币分发机制是否公平、市场能否接受其新模式等。\n\n风险提示\n在考虑投资或参与该项目之前，需重点关注以下风险：\n流动性与抛售风险\n早期 NFT 持有者获得较大份额（每个 Patron NFT 可获 100,000 枚 INX），若解锁后集中出售，可能对价格造成冲击。\n虽团队锁仓机制明确，但其它持有者锁仓情况尚未披露。\n\n代币模型未完全落实风险\n虽然宣称“平台收入回购代币”作为价值支撑，但未见完整公开回购机制、回购比例、销毁计划等。\n若代币仅作奖励分发而无明确增值机制，可能导致价值承诺难以兑现。\n合规／监管风险\n项目跨链、全球化、涉及 NFT + 代币分发，可能受到各国证券法、税务法、KYC/AML 问题影响。\n若代币被认定为证券，可能被监管机构约束。\n生态执行风险\nInfinex 的愿景较大（多链支持、抽象 gas、钱包+终端一体化），但技术实现、用户获取、市场竞争均为挑战。若用户增长未达预期，代币价值支撑将受影响。\n竞品众多，用户迁移成本高。若体验不如预期，可能难以突破。\n解锁时间表透明度风险\n团队锁仓期明确，但 NFT 持有者、激励池、早期投资者解锁条款不一定完全透明。解锁后的大规模抛售可能带来负面冲击。\n价格波动与市场风险\n新代币上线初期，市场对其认知、流动性、支持者信心尚在建设中，价格极易波动。投资者需承受较高波动风险。\n\n请注意：本文仅为信息整理与分析，不构成任何投资建议。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,151],"entities":{"hashtags":[{"indices":[36,43],"text":"史上最长停摆"},{"indices":[36,43],"text":"史上最长停摆"},{"indices":[253,257],"text":"比特币"},{"indices":[260,264],"text":"山寨币"},{"indices":[575,581],"text":"美联储政策"},{"indices":[800,804],"text":"BTC"},{"indices":[861,865],"text":"BTC"},{"indices":[866,870],"text":"ETH"},{"indices":[875,879],"text":"山寨币"},{"indices":[912,916],"text":"ETF"}],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E7AteEIPsI","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988906513730044122/photo/1","id_str":"1988906495644450816","indices":[152,175],"media_key":"3_1988906495644450816","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5oD64xawAAXJM3.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E7AteEIPsI","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":749,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":749,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":424,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":749,"width":1200,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":77,"w":1200,"h":672},{"x":135,"y":0,"w":749,"h":749},{"x":181,"y":0,"w":657,"h":749},{"x":322,"y":0,"w":375,"h":749},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1200,"h":749}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988906495644450816"}}},{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E7AteEIPsI","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988906513730044122/photo/1","id_str":"1988906495644430337","indices":[152,175],"media_key":"3_1988906495644430337","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5oD64xacAE6Zr8.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E7AteEIPsI","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1200,"w":848,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":1200,"w":848,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":680,"w":481,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":1200,"width":848,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":153,"w":848,"h":475},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":848},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":967},{"x":248,"y":0,"w":600,"h":1200},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":1200}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988906495644430337"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E7AteEIPsI","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988906513730044122/photo/1","id_str":"1988906495644450816","indices":[152,175],"media_key":"3_1988906495644450816","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5oD64xawAAXJM3.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E7AteEIPsI","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":749,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":749,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":424,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":749,"width":1200,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":77,"w":1200,"h":672},{"x":135,"y":0,"w":749,"h":749},{"x":181,"y":0,"w":657,"h":749},{"x":322,"y":0,"w":375,"h":749},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1200,"h":749}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988906495644450816"}}},{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E7AteEIPsI","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988906513730044122/photo/1","id_str":"1988906495644430337","indices":[152,175],"media_key":"3_1988906495644430337","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5oD64xacAE6Zr8.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E7AteEIPsI","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1200,"w":848,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":1200,"w":848,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":680,"w":481,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":1200,"width":848,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":153,"w":848,"h":475},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":848},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":967},{"x":248,"y":0,"w":600,"h":1200},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":1200}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988906495644430337"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988906513730044122","view_count":31,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763027239000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1624286098737483778","conversati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40 天的“#史上最长停摆”，美国政府终于确认可以恢复运作。这意味着财政部 TGA（Treasury General Account，总账户）终于可以“开闸”，释放过去几周被锁在账户中的巨额资金——大约 1 万亿美元的流动性即将重新回到市场。\n\n停摆期间，由于政府无法按计划支出，TGA 从约 3000 亿美元猛增至超过 1 万亿美元，相当于短短 40 天里把超过 7000 亿美元从市场中抽走，造成了结构性的“美元荒”。这一流动性紧缩，是导致 #比特币 和 #山寨币 在 11 月初非但守不住 10 万美元，甚至跌破 9.9 万美元的关键因素。\n值得注意的是：为什么说政府开门后，市场大概率是先跌后涨呢？原因在于两个因素的错位叠加：\n\n一个是数据黑洞引发短期恐慌，停摆导致劳工统计局（BLS）和其他关键数据部门瘫痪。9 月就业数据是“拼凑”，10 月 CPI、PPI、PCE 等通胀数据甚至可能缺失。美联储主席鲍威尔一向强调“数据驱动”（Data-Dependent），但现在“无数据可依”，导致市场无法判断未来货币政策走向。\n\n这种不确定性让华尔街交易员倾向于抛售高风险资产，市场短期出现回调，哪怕政府刚开门、流动性即将释放。\n10 月 31 日，隔夜拆借利率飙升至 4.22%，高于 #美联储政策 上限 4%，银行纷纷冲向美联储紧急窗口，总额达 503.5 亿美元，显示市场“缺钱”的恐慌真实存在。\n\n二是流动性释放尚未完全入市，虽然 TGA 1 万亿美元即将释放，但市场的“蓄水池”——RRP（逆回购工具）余额已降至不足 800 亿美元，无法吸收所有流动性。这意味着资金短期内需要寻找合适的风险资产配置，这个过程存在错配和短期震荡，导致市场先跌后涨。\n\n对于加密市场而言，政府开门带来的先跌后涨格局，有几个直接影响：\n短期波动加大：#BTC 可能会在 10万美元附近经历震荡。\n长期流动性利好：TGA 的释放会直接流入银行准备金，推动风险资产配置，包括 #BTC、#ETH 和主要 #山寨币。\nETF 和合规资金加速入场：SEC 复工后，将批准更多山寨币 #ETF，为市场注入合法资金，山寨币也会有利好。\n\n类似情况曾在历史上出现过：\n\n2013 年美国政府部分停摆：停摆结束前比特币短线下跌约 15%，停摆结束后一周内快速反弹 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Gate首发上线Play Solana现货交易\n\n哈世链闻消息，Gate将于2025年11月14日22:00（UTC+8）首发上线Play Solana (PLAYSOLANA)现货交易。\n\n$PLAYSOLANA #GateExchange #Cryptocurrency #Blockchain #Solana #CryptoTrading","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,182],"entities":{"hashtags":[{"indices":[275,290],"text":"Cryptocurrency"},{"indices":[291,302],"text":"Blockchain"},{"indices":[303,312],"text":"Coinbase"},{"indices":[313,321],"text":"Binance"}],"symbols":[{"indices":[264,269],"text":"BANK"},{"indices":[270,274],"text":"MET"}],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988973526364364911","view_count":21,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763043216000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1624286098737483778","conversation_id_str":"1988973526364364911","full_text":"币安交易所实时公告： 币安上线Lorenzo Protocol (BANK)和Meteora (MET)\n\n哈世链闻消息，币安推出Lorenzo Protocol (BANK)和Meteora (MET)，计划于2025年11月13日22:00上线。届时用户可通过币安理财、闪兑和一键买币等平台购买这些加密货币。用户可以使用信用卡、Google Pay、Apple Pay等方式购买，并在现货上线后一小时内开始交易。此外，这些代币可在币安的全仓、逐仓杠杆中进行支持。币安提醒用户新上币种可能波动较大，建议交易时注意风险管理。\n\n$BANK $MET #Cryptocurrency #Blockchain #Coinbase 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Internet Group 是一家金融科技（FinTech）公司，致力于打造“互联网金融基础设施”。其核心目标是将区块链、稳定币、数字资产基础设施与传统金融系统连接起来。\n\n主营业务\n主要可拆分为以下几类：\n稳定币发行与流通：公司是知名稳定币 USD Coin（USDC）的主要发行方之一，其发行、赎回、管理及流通规模是其核心资产。\n准备金／利息收入：USDC 背后的准备金（通常为现金或短期国债等低风险资产）为公司带来利息或回报。\n平台与开发者服务：公司提供 API、钱包／铸币／赎币服务，帮助开发者、金融机构、支付公司将稳定币或数字资产集成进其业务。\n区块链基础设施扩张：公司推出的 Arc Network（Layer-1 区块链）测试网、“Circle Payments Network”（CPN）支付网络等，意在构建生态平台，未来可能推出原生代币。\n\n市场与竞争环境\n市场需求：随着区块链应用（如 DeFi、链上支付、跨境结算）扩展，稳定币作为桥梁资产与链上工具地位加强。\n竞争与风险：USDC 虽具规模，但仍面临如 Tether USD（USDT）等先行者竞争；此外，监管、利率、信任机制、流通安全等均为潜在挑战。\n\n模式亮点\n网络效应：USDC 流通规模越大、链上应用越广，公司越能从中获益。\n成本／规模杠杆：稳定币规模扩大后，稀释了单位成本，提升盈利。\n长期愿景为 “互联网经济 OS”：公司管理层提出，其不仅是稳定币发行方，更定位为构建下一代互联网金融操作系统。\n\n最新业绩 &成长动能\n\nQ3 2025 财报关键数据\n根据公司披露：\nUSDC 流通规模约 737 亿美元，年增长约 108%。 \n本季度“总收入 + 储备收入”约 7.40 亿美元，同比增长约 66%。\n 净利润约 2.14 亿美元，同比增长约 202%。\n调整后 EBITDA 约 1.66 亿美元，同比增长约 78%。 \n公司宣布其 Arc 公测网已吸引 100 + 家金融或科技公司参与；正在探索推出 Arc 原生代币。 \n公司更新全年“Other Revenue”（即非储备相关收入）预期至 9000–10000 万美元。 \n\n解读：成长驱动力\n流通规模翻倍以上，说明其稳定币产品在市场上的渗透及采用显著加速。\n收入及盈利大幅增长，表明不仅规模扩大，且盈利能力初步显现。\n业务结构开始从单纯“准备金利息”向“生态／平台服务”扩展（“Other Revenue”增长、Arc／CPN 等战略项目推进）。\n虽市场反应谨慎（如因利率下降可能影响利息收益）但从经营数据看，公司成长性明显。\n\n行业地位与竞争比较\n在稳定币发行市场，USDC 是主要资产之一，且其流通规模和链上交易量都在迅速扩张。\n\n公司通过扩展支付网络、区块链生态、代币化资产服务，试图从“一张稳定币”扩展到“一个平台生态”。\n相比仅发行稳定币的机构，Circle 的优势在于构建更广泛的基础设施，但同时也承担更高成长型投资与平台构建风险。\n行业风险包括监管（如稳定币定义、合规要求）、利率环境（影响准备金收益）、技术／信任风险（储备透明度、用户信心）等。\n\n估值数据\n\n根据 StockAnalysis，当前市值约 USD 20.7 B，企业价值（EV）约 USD 21.55 B。\n主要估值比率（截至最近）：\nP/S（市销率）约 4.61 倍。 \nEV/Revenue ≈ 15.10 倍。 \nP/B（市净率）约 13.69 倍。 \n根据 SimplyWallSt：P/S 约 10.7 倍（不同数据源略有差别）且指出其较同业偏高。\n \n估值分析\n\n为便于理解，构建两个基本估值情景：保守与乐观。\n\n保守情景\n假设未来 2-3 年内，USDC 流通规模继续增长，但增长速度放缓，营收增长逐渐稳定。\n假设营收从本季度 ~0.74 亿美元 ×4（全年化约 3 亿美元）增长至 ~20 亿美元。\n假设给予 P/S 市销率约 6-8 倍。\n理论市值约 20 亿 × 6 ≈ 120 亿 美元至 20 亿 × 8 ≈ 160 亿 美元。\n若股本未变，对应每股目标价应依据当前流通股数折算。\n\n乐观情景\n假设公司生态结构成功建立，USDC 流通规模及平台服务迅猛扩张，营收增长至如 50-100 亿美元水平。\n假设给予更高 P/S 倍数，例如 10-12 倍。\n若营收达 50 亿美元 ×10 = 500 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| 深度】\n本周二（10月28日），Bitwise的Solana质押ETF (BSOL)、Canary的莱特币ETF (LTCN) 和HBAR ETF (HBAR) 将通过特殊的 “8-A文件” 形式，直接登陆纽交所和纳斯达克！\n这意味着它们 绕过了常规、漫长的SEC审批流程，实现了快速上市。这不仅是加密资产主流化的关键跃迁，更可能是一种全新的“上市范式”。 \n\n1、 什么是ETF？它为何如此重要？\n首先，让我们回归基础。ETF（Exchange-Traded Fund）即“交易所交易基金”。你可以把它想象成一个“资产篮子”，里面装着股票、债券或像黄金、比特币这样的商品。这个“篮子”本身又像股票一样，可以在证券交易所自由买卖。\n对普通投资者而言，ETF的最大优势是 “简单” 和 “合规”。\n简单：无需学习如何使用加密钱包、管理私钥，只需通过传统的股票账户就能投资加密资产。\n合规：ETF受到严格的金融监管，为机构和保守型投资者提供了安全、合规的入场通道。 \n\n2、 加密货币与ETF的结缘之路\n加密世界与ETF的首次“联姻”始于 比特币。经过长达十年的申请与等待，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）终于在 2024年1月 批准了首批比特币现货ETF。 这一事件被视为币圈的“诺曼底登陆”，它为市场带来了数百亿美元的机构资金，并直接推动了比特币价格创下历史新高。\n随后，以太坊现货ETF 也在 2025年5月 获批，进一步巩固了加密资产作为主流投资品的地位。 可以说，每一次主流币种的ETF获批，都是一次将加密市场与传统金融世界深度绑定的过程。 \n\n3、揭秘“8-A文件”：本次上市的秘密通道\n那么，为什么这次的ETF能如此之快？关键在于它们利用了 “证券法第12(b)条的8-A注册文件”。\n这是一种特殊的注册形式，通常用于将已在场外市场（OTC）交易的证券转换为主板上市公司。它允许发行方 绕过标准的S-1文件审批流程，后者正是比特币ETF耗费了数年时间才走完的漫长程序。\n这本质上是利用了现有法规的一个“巧妙后门”，是华尔街在加密领域的又一次规则创新。\n\n4、本次“闪电上市”，意味着什么？\n如果说BTC/ETH的ETF是打开了传统资金进入加密世界的大门，那么这次SOL、LTC等ETF的“闪电上市”，则 打开了通往更广阔加密生态的“高速公路”。\n资产类别的承认：这标志着监管和传统金融界不再将比特币视为唯一的“合格”加密资产。Solana这类高性能公链、莱特币这类老牌加密货币的价值得到了进一步认可。\n生态系统的繁荣：从10月28日开始，ETF将直接为Solana、Hedera等公链生态系统注入新的流动性和关注度，推动其链上应用（DeFi, NFT）的发展。\n上市范式的变革：这可能为后续其他“山寨币”ETF提供了一条全新的、更高效的上市路径，大大缩短了等待时间。 \n\n5、未来影响：我们正处在哪个阶段？\n我们正处在 “加密资产ETF化” 的加速阶段。本次事件预示着一个清晰的未来趋势：\n更多“山寨币”ETF将涌现：瑞波币（XRP）、卡尔达诺（ADA）等拥有场外信托产品的币种，很可能效仿这一路径，寻求快速上市。\n投资组合多样化：投资者将能像配置不同行业的股票一样，轻松地在投资组合中配置不同的加密资产，以分散风险。\n市场成熟度提升：随着监管框架的完善和更多合规产品的出现，加密市场的波动性可能逐渐降低，市场行为将更加理性。\n\n6、总结：一个新时代的序幕\n从比特币的十年长跑到如今Solana的“闪电”登陆，ETF正在以超乎预期的速度重塑加密货币的投资版图。\n10月28日，将作为“山寨币”ETF时代开启的日子被载入史册。它不仅是资金的入口，更是加密资产获得全球金融体系认可的“通行证”，而“8-A文件”则成为了这张通行证的“快速通道”。\n作为市场的见证者，我们正在亲历历史。\n\n#加密货币 #ETF #Solana #Crypto #美股 #区块链 #Web3 #sol #Hedera #LTC #Altcoin #SEC","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,32],"entities":{"hashtags":[{"indices":[328,343],"text":"Cryptocurrency"},{"indices":[344,355],"text":"Blockchain"},{"indices":[356,360],"text":"BTC"}],"symbols":[{"indices":[312,316],"text":"BTC"},{"indices":[317,321],"text":"PRE"},{"indices":[322,327],"text":"EXOD"}],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982998397780144186","view_count":13,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761618635000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1624286098737483778","conversation_id_str":"1982998397780144186","full_text":"贝克汉姆支持的Prenetics筹集4800万美元促进比特币储备\n\n哈世链闻消息，由大卫·贝克汉姆投资的健康科学公司Prenetics（PRE）通过一轮超额认购的股权融资筹集4800万美元，资金将用于拓展其健康品牌IM8，并推进比特币储备策略。公司公告称，通过行使认股权证，总融资额可能达到2.16亿美元。该轮融资吸引了Kraken、Exodus（EXOD）、GPTX和American Ventures等投资者。首席执行官Danny Yeung表示，这些资金将帮助IM8实现全球扩张，同时每日积累1枚比特币，以期在五年内实现收入和比特币持有量均达10亿美元的目标。目前，公司拥有268.4枚比特币，价值3090万美元。\n\n$BTC $PRE $EXOD #Cryptocurrency #Blockchain 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| 深度】\n本周二（10月28日），Bitwise的Solana质押ETF (BSOL)、Canary的莱特币ETF (LTCN) 和HBAR ETF (HBAR) 将通过特殊的 “8-A文件” 形式，直接登陆纽交所和纳斯达克！\n这意味着它们 绕过了常规、漫长的SEC审批流程，实现了快速上市。这不仅是加密资产主流化的关键跃迁，更可能是一种全新的“上市范式”。 \n\n1、 什么是ETF？它为何如此重要？\n首先，让我们回归基础。ETF（Exchange-Traded Fund）即“交易所交易基金”。你可以把它想象成一个“资产篮子”，里面装着股票、债券或像黄金、比特币这样的商品。这个“篮子”本身又像股票一样，可以在证券交易所自由买卖。\n对普通投资者而言，ETF的最大优势是 “简单” 和 “合规”。\n简单：无需学习如何使用加密钱包、管理私钥，只需通过传统的股票账户就能投资加密资产。\n合规：ETF受到严格的金融监管，为机构和保守型投资者提供了安全、合规的入场通道。 \n\n2、 加密货币与ETF的结缘之路\n加密世界与ETF的首次“联姻”始于 比特币。经过长达十年的申请与等待，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）终于在 2024年1月 批准了首批比特币现货ETF。 这一事件被视为币圈的“诺曼底登陆”，它为市场带来了数百亿美元的机构资金，并直接推动了比特币价格创下历史新高。\n随后，以太坊现货ETF 也在 2025年5月 获批，进一步巩固了加密资产作为主流投资品的地位。 可以说，每一次主流币种的ETF获批，都是一次将加密市场与传统金融世界深度绑定的过程。 \n\n3、揭秘“8-A文件”：本次上市的秘密通道\n那么，为什么这次的ETF能如此之快？关键在于它们利用了 “证券法第12(b)条的8-A注册文件”。\n这是一种特殊的注册形式，通常用于将已在场外市场（OTC）交易的证券转换为主板上市公司。它允许发行方 绕过标准的S-1文件审批流程，后者正是比特币ETF耗费了数年时间才走完的漫长程序。\n这本质上是利用了现有法规的一个“巧妙后门”，是华尔街在加密领域的又一次规则创新。\n\n4、本次“闪电上市”，意味着什么？\n如果说BTC/ETH的ETF是打开了传统资金进入加密世界的大门，那么这次SOL、LTC等ETF的“闪电上市”，则 打开了通往更广阔加密生态的“高速公路”。\n资产类别的承认：这标志着监管和传统金融界不再将比特币视为唯一的“合格”加密资产。Solana这类高性能公链、莱特币这类老牌加密货币的价值得到了进一步认可。\n生态系统的繁荣：从10月28日开始，ETF将直接为Solana、Hedera等公链生态系统注入新的流动性和关注度，推动其链上应用（DeFi, NFT）的发展。\n上市范式的变革：这可能为后续其他“山寨币”ETF提供了一条全新的、更高效的上市路径，大大缩短了等待时间。 \n\n5、未来影响：我们正处在哪个阶段？\n我们正处在 “加密资产ETF化” 的加速阶段。本次事件预示着一个清晰的未来趋势：\n更多“山寨币”ETF将涌现：瑞波币（XRP）、卡尔达诺（ADA）等拥有场外信托产品的币种，很可能效仿这一路径，寻求快速上市。\n投资组合多样化：投资者将能像配置不同行业的股票一样，轻松地在投资组合中配置不同的加密资产，以分散风险。\n市场成熟度提升：随着监管框架的完善和更多合规产品的出现，加密市场的波动性可能逐渐降低，市场行为将更加理性。\n\n6、总结：一个新时代的序幕\n从比特币的十年长跑到如今Solana的“闪电”登陆，ETF正在以超乎预期的速度重塑加密货币的投资版图。\n10月28日，将作为“山寨币”ETF时代开启的日子被载入史册。它不仅是资金的入口，更是加密资产获得全球金融体系认可的“通行证”，而“8-A文件”则成为了这张通行证的“快速通道”。\n作为市场的见证者，我们正在亲历历史。\n\n#加密货币 #ETF #Solana #Crypto #美股 #区块链 #Web3 #sol #Hedera #LTC 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不等，为投资者提供心理预期参考，但不应视为保证。\n\n3、比特币生态的变化\n\n近年来，比特币生态呈现“链上百花齐放”的特征。虽然以太坊和 Solana 的 DeFi、NFT 生态发展更活跃，但比特币正在悄然升级基础设施。闪电网络扩展通道数量已突破 5 万条，总容量达到 2,200 BTC，这意味着比特币在小额支付和跨链价值传输方面的能力正稳步提升。同时，多家主要交易所和支付平台已支持闪电网络支付，提升了链上实际应用价值。\n\n长期持币地址稳步增加，显示市场认同比特币价值储存功能。同时，跨链桥、Layer‑2 协议及机构金融产品的出现，让比特币生态开始逐步承载更多金融功能和应用场景。\n\n4、比特币生态的出路\n\n比特币生态的未来不在于简单模仿其他公链开发大量链上应用，而在于强化自身独有优势：稀缺性、安全性和可信价值。其出路主要有三条方向：第一，巩固价值储存和抗审查特性，使比特币成为全球可信资产；第二，通过闪电网络和 Layer‑2 技术提升可扩展性和流动性，使比特币价值能够在更广泛的生态中流动；第三，通过 ETF、战略资产配置和金融化应用，将比特币进一步嵌入主流金融体系，形成制度性支撑。\n\n这些路径让比特币能够在链上百花齐放的环境中形成独特生态优势，而非单纯追求链上应用数量。比特币的生态定位正在从“数字黄金”向“可信价值基础设施 + 金融化资产”转型，这种独特性正成为其在未来市场竞争中的核心优势。\n\n5、总结\n\n四年周期仍是理解比特币价格波动的重要参考，但在当前市场结构和机构化趋势下，其节奏和高点可能不再像历史上那样精准。市场情绪回暖、长期持币者占比增加，加上机构资金流入，为牛市提供潜在动力，但宏观经济和政策风险依然存在。比特币生态也在加速演进，通过基础设施升级、金融化应用以及闪电网络扩展，正走出一条与其他公链不同的独特道路。在链上百花齐放的时代，比特币的稀缺性、可信性和基础设施优势，将决定其在数字资产格局中的未来位置。\n\n#BTC #Halving #BTCcycle #Macro #ETF #机构化 #Ordinals #BRC20 #Layer2 #牛市 #投资分析 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DeFi：当收益变成陷阱\n\n编辑记者：哈世链闻\n\n11 月的加密市场，本该在以太坊生态的复苏中逐渐回暖，但 DeFi 的裂缝却在悄然扩大。10·11 与 11·3 的两场“稳定币事件”让 $USDe 与 $xUSD 相继陷入困境，而昨夜的 ListaDAO—MEV Capital—USDX 连锁事件，更像是在这道裂缝上重锤一击。\n\n这场风波不仅揭示了熊市里 DeFi 收益的幻觉，也让人看到，所谓“去中心化”的稳定币体系，正变得越来越像一个高杠杆、低透明的资金自循环机器。\n\n收益型稳定币的幻觉\n\n在危机爆发之前，收益型稳定币（YBS）被许多人视为 DeFi 的“低风险创新”：\n它承诺超额抵押、稳健收益、链上透明——听起来几乎完美。\n\n理论模型是这样的：抵押 1.1 美元资产，铸造 1 美元稳定币；将其投放到 DeFi 协议赚取利息；收益的一部分分给持币人，剩下的归项目方。\n然而，在高收益的压力下，这一结构被悄然扭曲——抵押比例被美化、资产类型被混合、杠杆被提前嵌入铸造环节。\n\n这正是 xUSD 事件中所暴露的逻辑：\nStream Finance 利用 Elixir 的 deUSD 撬动四倍杠杆，将杠杆环节前置至发行阶段，形成“铸造即杠杆”的结构。表面上是超额抵押，实际上却是风险浓缩。\n\n当 60% 的发行量掌握在发行方自己手里，所谓“清算机制”早已名存实亡。\n这类结构的风险在牛市中被收益掩盖，一旦市场下行，便会像积木般塌陷。\n\n主理人机制的幻觉\n\n过去一年，DeFi 借贷协议开始引入“主理人（Curator）”制度。\nMorpho、Euler 等项目让独立团队来管理金库、挑选资产，似乎能让风险更分散、更智能。\n可当 Stream 的 xUSD 被广泛接纳后，这种分散反而成为风险的扩散器——每一个金库都在复制相同的毒性资产，最终形成链式殉爆。\n\n讽刺的是，这种“精选市场”反而削弱了用户防御意识。\nAave 像京东自营，安全问题由平台兜底；Morpho 与 Euler 更像淘宝，把安全外包给卖家。\n散户在界面上看到的是“Curated Market”的光环，却未意识到——在出问题时，没人真正负责。\n\n⸻\n\n当 CEX 变透明，DeFi 变模糊\n\n这一轮熊市的最大讽刺是：CEX（中心化交易所）因监管变得越来越透明，而 DeFi 却重新走向灰色。\n协议间的合作不再依靠智能合约，而是依靠 Telegram 群里的返佣截图与“君子协定”。\n危机爆发时，人们看到的不是链上日志，而是一张张表情包式的对话记录。\n\nVitalik 一直呼吁建设“Low-Risk DeFi”，让以太坊成为可承载社会信任的金融基础设施。\n但现实是，收益的诱惑与杠杆的惯性正在让整个行业重蹈覆辙。\n在熊市中，“低风险”常常只是“高风险的最后阶段”。\n\n⸻\n\n昨夜：ListaDAO、MEV Capital 与 USDX 的临界点\n\n11 月 5 日深夜，市场再次上演了一场惊心动魄的链上剧。\nLista Lending 的 MEV USDT Vault 的 APY 一度飙升至 3570% ——当然，那是复利计算，实际年化约在 300% 左右，日化不到 1%。\n表面上看是“超高收益机会”，实际上则是风险的信号弹。\n\n凌晨时分，ListaDAO 官方移除了 30% 的借款利率上限。\n这一步极为关键，也是极为明智的。因为在 USDX 风险逐渐暴露的背景下，唯一的“逃生窗口”，就是通过 DEX 上残余的可清算流动性，尽快完成风险出清。\n⸻\n\nAdaptiveCurveIRM 的“高压曲线”\n\n在利率上限解除后，MEV Capital 的 AdaptiveCurveIRM（自适应利率曲线机制） 开始全面接管市场行为。\n这一机制的原理简单而高效：\n当借贷池使用率超过 90% 时，借款利率不再线性上升，而是进入倍数级别的加速区。\n如果仍无法将使用率压回 90%，曲线将整体上移，利率以指数级别继续飙升。\n\n这一机制最早在 FRAX 的 Curve 清算事件中发挥过作用——它不需要人工干预，只通过经济激励迫使借款人自发平仓，从而保护流动性池的健康。\nMEV Capital 这次同样选择了“放任”机制自动反应，没有过度干预。\n从风险控制角度看，这是合理的选择：\n更激进的利率曲线，反而是更稳健的风控工具。\n\n不过需要指出的是，MEV Capital 当前还背负着 Stream Finance 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高性能交易平台。对于部分人来说，可以先了解平台的功能和积分机制，等代币正式发行后，再关注发行细节和锁仓计划。\n你认为它会成为加密明星项目吗？\n\n本文仅供参考，不构成投资者建议，市场高风险，入市需谨慎。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,140],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/LQyjQ2bmMG","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988869722679701878/photo/1","id_str":"1988869707492171776","indices":[141,164],"media_key":"3_1988869707492171776","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5nidiObIAAUGRF.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/LQyjQ2bmMG","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":468,"w":1199,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":468,"w":1199,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":265,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":468,"width":1199,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":836,"h":468},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":468,"h":468},{"x":4,"y":0,"w":411,"h":468},{"x":92,"y":0,"w":234,"h":468},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1199,"h":468}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988869707492171776"}}},{"display_url":"pic.x.com/LQyjQ2bmMG","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988869722679701878/photo/1","id_str":"1988869612763860992","indices":[141,164],"media_key":"3_1988869612763860992","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5niYBVb0AAq1hK.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/LQyjQ2bmMG","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":600,"w":928,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":600,"w":928,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":440,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":600,"width":928,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":80,"w":928,"h":520},{"x":164,"y":0,"w":600,"h":600},{"x":201,"y":0,"w":526,"h":600},{"x":314,"y":0,"w":300,"h":600},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":928,"h":600}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988869612763860992"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/LQyjQ2bmMG","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988869722679701878/photo/1","id_str":"1988869707492171776","indices":[141,164],"media_key":"3_1988869707492171776","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5nidiObIAAUGRF.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/LQyjQ2bmMG","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":468,"w":1199,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":468,"w":1199,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":265,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":468,"width":1199,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":836,"h":468},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":468,"h":468},{"x":4,"y":0,"w":411,"h":468},{"x":92,"y":0,"w":234,"h":468},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1199,"h":468}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988869707492171776"}}},{"display_url":"pic.x.com/LQyjQ2bmMG","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988869722679701878/photo/1","id_str":"1988869612763860992","indices":[141,164],"media_key":"3_1988869612763860992","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5niYBVb0AAq1hK.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/LQyjQ2bmMG","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":600,"w":928,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":600,"w":928,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":440,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":600,"width":928,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":80,"w":928,"h":520},{"x":164,"y":0,"w":600,"h":600},{"x":201,"y":0,"w":526,"h":600},{"x":314,"y":0,"w":300,"h":600},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":928,"h":600}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988869612763860992"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988869722679701878","view_count":124,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763018467000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1624286098737483778","conversation_id_str":"1988869722679701878","full_text":"《恐惧重临：恐惧指数跌至14，币圈进入“极度寒意”时刻》\n\n最近市场的情绪，冷到有点刺骨。\n今天的加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数降至14，这意味着市场情绪正式进入「极度恐惧」区间。\n上一次跌到这个水平的，还是在去年大跌前后的那段“黑暗时刻”。那么问题来了——这一次的恐惧，到底意味着什么？\n\n什么是恐惧指数？\n\n恐惧与贪婪指数（Fear & Greed Index）是一个衡量市场情绪的指标，范围从 0 到 100。\n\n0-25 属于极度恐惧：投资者普遍悲观，市场处于情绪低谷。\n\n75-100 属于极度贪婪：投资者过于乐观，市场可能过热。\n\n当前的 14，是过去三个月来的最低值，说明资金情绪趋冷，恐慌蔓延，短期资金大规模撤离。\n\n市场为何突然降温？\n\n一是近期数据显示，24小时内全市场爆仓规模大幅上升（数亿美元量级），同时总未平仓头寸有所回落，说明资金在短时间内被强制平仓或主动撤出。衍生品市场去杠杆会迅速放大下跌：一部分被动爆仓造成价格进一步下探，触发更多自动清算，形成自放大下行。\n二是面对稳定币风险和高波动，做市商、套利基金会收缩盘口、撤回挂单或提高点差（尤其在 DeFi 与小众 DEX 上更明显），导致买盘稀疏、卖压更容易把价格推低——这在链上订单簿深度与 DEX 交易量中都有体现。新闻对“流动性收缩”和部分交易所/协议监测到的异常流动性问题已有报道。\n三是近期关于 ETF 批准窗口、监管机关动作（及市场对其可能介入/限制的担忧）使得机构资金变得谨慎。特别是 ETF/监管节奏有不确定性时，机构会倾向于减仓以等待规则明朗，进而减少买方支撑。相关讨论在近期关于 ETF 批准与监管节奏的报道中频繁出现。\n\n冰点中孕育机会\n\n短期看，恐惧情绪带来的是抛压和观望：\n新项目难获关注；\n主流币交投量下降；\n机构与散户同步避险。\n\n但长期看，极度恐惧往往孕育底部信号。\n历史上每一次指数跌破20，都对应了中长期的布局窗口，比如：2022年FTX暴雷时，恐惧指数在12附近，BTC后续从15,000美元反弹至30,000美元；\n2023年黑天鹅期间跌到10，结果半年后BTC翻倍。\n所以，「恐惧」有时候反而是聪明资金的“进场信号灯”。\n\n对比历史：每一次“极度恐惧”之后，市场都发生了什么？\n2020年3月，疫情暴跌时恐惧指数跌到8，BTC在5000美元附近。三个月后，价格翻倍。\n\n2022年11月，FTX崩盘时恐惧指数跌到12，BTC在1.5万美元。四个月后涨到3万美元。\n\n2023年8月，加息周期末期恐惧指数17，BTC在2.5万美元。三个月后反弹至4.2万美元。\n\n现在，2025年11月，恐惧指数14，BTC在5.8万美元。拐点是否又在酝酿？\n\n历史告诉我们：\n 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INX TGE前瞻：Patron NFT持有者获赠10万枚代币，跨链DeFi生态再升级》\n\n哈世链闻消息，跨链聚合 #DeFi平台 #Infinex 宣布即将启动 #INX代币 生成事件（TGE），#PatronNFT 持有者将按 1:100,000 比例空投 10 万枚 #INX，同时平台通过 #Sonar 销售和 #Craterun 活动进一步分发代币。\n本文将围绕 #INX 项目基础信息、治理机制、竞品对比及风险等进行通俗解读。\n\n项目基础信息\n\n项目简介\n#Infinex 是一个定位“超级 #crypto 应用”的平台，旨在将 #跨链聚合、#去中心化交易、#钱包管理、#桥接（bridge）、#交易终端、钱包扩展等功能整合到一个产品里，由 Kain Warwick（曾为 Synthetix 联合创始人）领导。 \n其主张：借助多条链、抽象 gas、极简用户体验，让用户能够像用集中式交易所（CEX）那样方便，又同时保有去中心化、自主控制钱包资产的体验。 \n\nINX 代币基本参数\n\n代币名称：#INX（也称 #INX代币）\n\n总供应量（或上限）：根据 Infinex 官方披露，流传关于 “10 b（10 0 亿）枚” 的数字，即 100 亿枚。\n空投/分发机制：Infinex 表示其 TGE（代币生成事件）将来：“100 % 的供应分配给 Patrons（Patron NFT 持有者）”这一说法。 \n具体为：总共有 100,000 个 Patron NFT，每一个将获得 100,000 枚 INX。 \n同时 uPatron 持有者（微型版本 NFT）将按 1:10 的比例获得 INX。 \n团队持有份额：官方披露团队份额占总量约 20%。\n团队代币将锁定 12 个月，然后再线性释放 12 个月。\n\n初始发行时间 / TGE 时间：尚无公开精确日期，仅知 “TGE 即将到来” 的声明发布于 2025 年11月。 \n初始发行价：官方披露并未给出一个明确的公开发行价数字，而在其 “Craterun 奖励”文中提到“基于 Patron NFT 价格，隐含 INX 价格约 5 美分（$0.05）” 的印象。 \n上线平台 / 支持链：Infinex 表示其将在 TGE 第一日支持三条新链：Monad、MegaEth、Fogo。 \n\n代币用途：\n\n持有 Patron NFT 可获 INX；\nINX 被用于平台激励分发、用户活动奖励；\n根据 Infinex 的叙述，INX 还用于捕获平台收入（例如通过平台产生的手续费或利润回购代币）以支持代币价值。\n\n是否有销毁机制 / 铸币增发机制 / 动态调节供应：\n官方披露中 没有明确提到销毁机制（burn）。\n关于是否增发或动态调节供应，目前披露为 “总供应量固定100 亿枚” 的表述，暂未见公开说明后续增发。\n也未明确提到减半、回购销毁等机制。\n\n流通量 / 初始流通盘比例 / FDV：\n因尚未 TGE，上线前流通量数据尚不可见。官方称分配给 Patron NFT，即 100 000 个 NFT × 100 000 枚 = 10 亿枚分配给 Patrons，其余供应（如 90 亿枚）可能由 Treasury／激励池／团队持有。\n\n核心亮点：\n多链支持 + 跨链抽象 gas 体验：Infinex 强调支持新链、桥接、无痛转移资产。\n公平分发机制：利用 NFT + Craterun 等活动让更多用户进入分发机制，而非传统 VC 私募。\n团队承诺锁仓机制：团队持币锁定 12 个月＋12 个月线性释放，体现一定长期绑定意愿。\n平台设计定位：尝试将去中心化钱包/交易体验与 CEX 体验融合，降低用户进入门槛。\n\n是否存在砸盘风险 / 价格稳定机制：\n由于尚未大规模流通，早期代币持有者（如 Patron NFT 持有者）若解锁即卖出，存在较大抛售压力。\n官方提及将用“平台收入回购代币”机制（Revenue → Buy‑Back）来支撑代币。\n但未见完整披露明确的价格稳定机制（例如锁仓期、回购比例、销毁机制）细节。\n\n合规风险：\n虽然项目在宣传中强调支持多链、新链、抽象 gas，但目前尚无明确披露其合规机制（如是否在特定地区注册）且新链支持本身带来技术与法律风险。\n如果代币被认定为证券或金融产品，可能受限当地法律监管。\n\n解锁风险：\n团队锁仓虽有明确机制，但早期持有者（如 Patron NFT 持有者）解锁期安排是否透明、是否有提前售卖风险仍需观察。\n倘若大量 Patron NFT 持有者在解锁后同步抛售，可能对价格造成下行压力。\n\nInfinex 的 INX 项目目前处于“预发行／TGE前”阶段，核心亮点聚焦于跨链 UX、用户分发及社区机制。但由于尚未完全上线披露，很多关键参数仍处于预设状态。\n\n治理机制\nPatron NFT 持有者：Infinex 表示该 NFT 持有者是获取 INX 的主要方式之一。 \n治理模型：根据 OakResearch 整理，Patron NFT 持有者将通过选举方式选出一个“委员会（council）”，由该委员会代表持有者执行治理决策（如选择资产、协议功能、技术路线）而非每一次都让全体持有者直接 vote。 \n决策方向包括：资产上线、功能实现、协议方向等。Patron NFT 作为治理身份凭证。\n代币治理权：目前尚无公开资料显示 INX 代币本身是否赋予投票权、权益参与等；主要治理权似乎与Patron NFT 关联。\n治理激励机制：平台通过 Crate Run、活动获取用户参与权，并通过这些方式扩大社区参与度。\n \n整体来看，治理机制试图结合 NFT + 代币分发＋用户参与，但具体运作细节（如委员会选举机制、代币持有者权利、提案机制、否决机制）尚未完全公开，仍需进一步观察。\n\n竞品对比\n为了更好理解 Infinex 所处的位置，我们选取两类竞品进行对比：跨链聚合／交易体验型项目，以及传统交易所代币／平台代币。\n竞品 A：跨链聚合／交易体验型\n\n1inch Network／其代币 1INCH：作为跨链聚合器＋ DEX 路由器，用户可通过代币参与治理、手续费返还等。\nParaswap 等同类聚合器。\n对比 Infinex 的优势与劣势：\n优势：Infinex 着重将“钱包”、“交易终端”、“桥接聚合”融合，并强调用户体验（UX）与多链支持，目标不仅仅是一个路由器。\n劣势：1inch 等已有成熟生态、用户基础、路由量，Infinex 为新项目，尚需证明其技术落地、用户增长及聚合效果。\n竞品 B：平台代币/交易所代币\nBNB (Binance 币)：用于交易所手续费折扣、生态建设、回购销毁。\n\nInfinex 的 INX 更偏项目生态代币＋社区分发机制，而不是传统交易所代币。其亮点在于“公平分发＋NFT ＋平台收入回购”。但传统交易所代币通常有成熟市场、流动性、较高认知度，Infinex 需努力建立信任与生态。\n\nInfinex 在“用户体验＋跨链＋公平分发”三大方向有亮点，若能成功落地，与上述竞品相比有差异化优势。但挑战也显著——生态是否能快速获取用户、技术是否稳定、代币分发机制是否公平、市场能否接受其新模式等。\n\n风险提示\n在考虑投资或参与该项目之前，需重点关注以下风险：\n流动性与抛售风险\n早期 NFT 持有者获得较大份额（每个 Patron NFT 可获 100,000 枚 INX），若解锁后集中出售，可能对价格造成冲击。\n虽团队锁仓机制明确，但其它持有者锁仓情况尚未披露。\n\n代币模型未完全落实风险\n虽然宣称“平台收入回购代币”作为价值支撑，但未见完整公开回购机制、回购比例、销毁计划等。\n若代币仅作奖励分发而无明确增值机制，可能导致价值承诺难以兑现。\n合规／监管风险\n项目跨链、全球化、涉及 NFT + 代币分发，可能受到各国证券法、税务法、KYC/AML 问题影响。\n若代币被认定为证券，可能被监管机构约束。\n生态执行风险\nInfinex 的愿景较大（多链支持、抽象 gas、钱包+终端一体化），但技术实现、用户获取、市场竞争均为挑战。若用户增长未达预期，代币价值支撑将受影响。\n竞品众多，用户迁移成本高。若体验不如预期，可能难以突破。\n解锁时间表透明度风险\n团队锁仓期明确，但 NFT 持有者、激励池、早期投资者解锁条款不一定完全透明。解锁后的大规模抛售可能带来负面冲击。\n价格波动与市场风险\n新代币上线初期，市场对其认知、流动性、支持者信心尚在建设中，价格极易波动。投资者需承受较高波动风险。\n\n请注意：本文仅为信息整理与分析，不构成任何投资建议。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,151],"entities":{"hashtags":[{"indices":[36,43],"text":"史上最长停摆"},{"indices":[36,43],"text":"史上最长停摆"},{"indices":[253,257],"text":"比特币"},{"indices":[260,264],"text":"山寨币"},{"indices":[575,581],"text":"美联储政策"},{"indices":[800,804],"text":"BTC"},{"indices":[861,865],"text":"BTC"},{"indices":[866,870],"text":"ETH"},{"indices":[875,879],"text":"山寨币"},{"indices":[912,916],"text":"ETF"}],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E7AteEIPsI","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988906513730044122/photo/1","id_str":"1988906495644450816","indices":[152,175],"media_key":"3_1988906495644450816","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5oD64xawAAXJM3.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E7AteEIPsI","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":749,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":749,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":424,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":749,"width":1200,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":77,"w":1200,"h":672},{"x":135,"y":0,"w":749,"h":749},{"x":181,"y":0,"w":657,"h":749},{"x":322,"y":0,"w":375,"h":749},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1200,"h":749}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988906495644450816"}}},{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E7AteEIPsI","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988906513730044122/photo/1","id_str":"1988906495644430337","indices":[152,175],"media_key":"3_1988906495644430337","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5oD64xacAE6Zr8.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E7AteEIPsI","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1200,"w":848,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":1200,"w":848,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":680,"w":481,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":1200,"width":848,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":153,"w":848,"h":475},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":848},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":967},{"x":248,"y":0,"w":600,"h":1200},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":1200}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988906495644430337"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E7AteEIPsI","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988906513730044122/photo/1","id_str":"1988906495644450816","indices":[152,175],"media_key":"3_1988906495644450816","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5oD64xawAAXJM3.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E7AteEIPsI","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":749,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":749,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":424,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":749,"width":1200,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":77,"w":1200,"h":672},{"x":135,"y":0,"w":749,"h":749},{"x":181,"y":0,"w":657,"h":749},{"x":322,"y":0,"w":375,"h":749},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1200,"h":749}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988906495644450816"}}},{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E7AteEIPsI","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988906513730044122/photo/1","id_str":"1988906495644430337","indices":[152,175],"media_key":"3_1988906495644430337","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5oD64xacAE6Zr8.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E7AteEIPsI","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1200,"w":848,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":1200,"w":848,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":680,"w":481,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":1200,"width":848,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":153,"w":848,"h":475},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":848},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":967},{"x":248,"y":0,"w":600,"h":1200},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":1200}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988906495644430337"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988906513730044122","view_count":31,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763027239000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1624286098737483778","conversati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40 天的“#史上最长停摆”，美国政府终于确认可以恢复运作。这意味着财政部 TGA（Treasury General Account，总账户）终于可以“开闸”，释放过去几周被锁在账户中的巨额资金——大约 1 万亿美元的流动性即将重新回到市场。\n\n停摆期间，由于政府无法按计划支出，TGA 从约 3000 亿美元猛增至超过 1 万亿美元，相当于短短 40 天里把超过 7000 亿美元从市场中抽走，造成了结构性的“美元荒”。这一流动性紧缩，是导致 #比特币 和 #山寨币 在 11 月初非但守不住 10 万美元，甚至跌破 9.9 万美元的关键因素。\n值得注意的是：为什么说政府开门后，市场大概率是先跌后涨呢？原因在于两个因素的错位叠加：\n\n一个是数据黑洞引发短期恐慌，停摆导致劳工统计局（BLS）和其他关键数据部门瘫痪。9 月就业数据是“拼凑”，10 月 CPI、PPI、PCE 等通胀数据甚至可能缺失。美联储主席鲍威尔一向强调“数据驱动”（Data-Dependent），但现在“无数据可依”，导致市场无法判断未来货币政策走向。\n\n这种不确定性让华尔街交易员倾向于抛售高风险资产，市场短期出现回调，哪怕政府刚开门、流动性即将释放。\n10 月 31 日，隔夜拆借利率飙升至 4.22%，高于 #美联储政策 上限 4%，银行纷纷冲向美联储紧急窗口，总额达 503.5 亿美元，显示市场“缺钱”的恐慌真实存在。\n\n二是流动性释放尚未完全入市，虽然 TGA 1 万亿美元即将释放，但市场的“蓄水池”——RRP（逆回购工具）余额已降至不足 800 亿美元，无法吸收所有流动性。这意味着资金短期内需要寻找合适的风险资产配置，这个过程存在错配和短期震荡，导致市场先跌后涨。\n\n对于加密市场而言，政府开门带来的先跌后涨格局，有几个直接影响：\n短期波动加大：#BTC 可能会在 10万美元附近经历震荡。\n长期流动性利好：TGA 的释放会直接流入银行准备金，推动风险资产配置，包括 #BTC、#ETH 和主要 #山寨币。\nETF 和合规资金加速入场：SEC 复工后，将批准更多山寨币 #ETF，为市场注入合法资金，山寨币也会有利好。\n\n类似情况曾在历史上出现过：\n\n2013 年美国政府部分停摆：停摆结束前比特币短线下跌约 15%，停摆结束后一周内快速反弹 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Gate首发上线Play Solana现货交易\n\n哈世链闻消息，Gate将于2025年11月14日22:00（UTC+8）首发上线Play Solana (PLAYSOLANA)现货交易。\n\n$PLAYSOLANA #GateExchange #Cryptocurrency #Blockchain #Solana #CryptoTrading","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,182],"entities":{"hashtags":[{"indices":[275,290],"text":"Cryptocurrency"},{"indices":[291,302],"text":"Blockchain"},{"indices":[303,312],"text":"Coinbase"},{"indices":[313,321],"text":"Binance"}],"symbols":[{"indices":[264,269],"text":"BANK"},{"indices":[270,274],"text":"MET"}],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988973526364364911","view_count":21,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763043216000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1624286098737483778","conversation_id_str":"1988973526364364911","full_text":"币安交易所实时公告： 币安上线Lorenzo Protocol (BANK)和Meteora (MET)\n\n哈世链闻消息，币安推出Lorenzo Protocol (BANK)和Meteora (MET)，计划于2025年11月13日22:00上线。届时用户可通过币安理财、闪兑和一键买币等平台购买这些加密货币。用户可以使用信用卡、Google Pay、Apple Pay等方式购买，并在现货上线后一小时内开始交易。此外，这些代币可在币安的全仓、逐仓杠杆中进行支持。币安提醒用户新上币种可能波动较大，建议交易时注意风险管理。\n\n$BANK $MET #Cryptocurrency #Blockchain #Coinbase 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Internet Group 是一家金融科技（FinTech）公司，致力于打造“互联网金融基础设施”。其核心目标是将区块链、稳定币、数字资产基础设施与传统金融系统连接起来。\n\n主营业务\n主要可拆分为以下几类：\n稳定币发行与流通：公司是知名稳定币 USD Coin（USDC）的主要发行方之一，其发行、赎回、管理及流通规模是其核心资产。\n准备金／利息收入：USDC 背后的准备金（通常为现金或短期国债等低风险资产）为公司带来利息或回报。\n平台与开发者服务：公司提供 API、钱包／铸币／赎币服务，帮助开发者、金融机构、支付公司将稳定币或数字资产集成进其业务。\n区块链基础设施扩张：公司推出的 Arc Network（Layer-1 区块链）测试网、“Circle Payments Network”（CPN）支付网络等，意在构建生态平台，未来可能推出原生代币。\n\n市场与竞争环境\n市场需求：随着区块链应用（如 DeFi、链上支付、跨境结算）扩展，稳定币作为桥梁资产与链上工具地位加强。\n竞争与风险：USDC 虽具规模，但仍面临如 Tether USD（USDT）等先行者竞争；此外，监管、利率、信任机制、流通安全等均为潜在挑战。\n\n模式亮点\n网络效应：USDC 流通规模越大、链上应用越广，公司越能从中获益。\n成本／规模杠杆：稳定币规模扩大后，稀释了单位成本，提升盈利。\n长期愿景为 “互联网经济 OS”：公司管理层提出，其不仅是稳定币发行方，更定位为构建下一代互联网金融操作系统。\n\n最新业绩 &成长动能\n\nQ3 2025 财报关键数据\n根据公司披露：\nUSDC 流通规模约 737 亿美元，年增长约 108%。 \n本季度“总收入 + 储备收入”约 7.40 亿美元，同比增长约 66%。\n 净利润约 2.14 亿美元，同比增长约 202%。\n调整后 EBITDA 约 1.66 亿美元，同比增长约 78%。 \n公司宣布其 Arc 公测网已吸引 100 + 家金融或科技公司参与；正在探索推出 Arc 原生代币。 \n公司更新全年“Other Revenue”（即非储备相关收入）预期至 9000–10000 万美元。 \n\n解读：成长驱动力\n流通规模翻倍以上，说明其稳定币产品在市场上的渗透及采用显著加速。\n收入及盈利大幅增长，表明不仅规模扩大，且盈利能力初步显现。\n业务结构开始从单纯“准备金利息”向“生态／平台服务”扩展（“Other Revenue”增长、Arc／CPN 等战略项目推进）。\n虽市场反应谨慎（如因利率下降可能影响利息收益）但从经营数据看，公司成长性明显。\n\n行业地位与竞争比较\n在稳定币发行市场，USDC 是主要资产之一，且其流通规模和链上交易量都在迅速扩张。\n\n公司通过扩展支付网络、区块链生态、代币化资产服务，试图从“一张稳定币”扩展到“一个平台生态”。\n相比仅发行稳定币的机构，Circle 的优势在于构建更广泛的基础设施，但同时也承担更高成长型投资与平台构建风险。\n行业风险包括监管（如稳定币定义、合规要求）、利率环境（影响准备金收益）、技术／信任风险（储备透明度、用户信心）等。\n\n估值数据\n\n根据 StockAnalysis，当前市值约 USD 20.7 B，企业价值（EV）约 USD 21.55 B。\n主要估值比率（截至最近）：\nP/S（市销率）约 4.61 倍。 \nEV/Revenue ≈ 15.10 倍。 \nP/B（市净率）约 13.69 倍。 \n根据 SimplyWallSt：P/S 约 10.7 倍（不同数据源略有差别）且指出其较同业偏高。\n \n估值分析\n\n为便于理解，构建两个基本估值情景：保守与乐观。\n\n保守情景\n假设未来 2-3 年内，USDC 流通规模继续增长，但增长速度放缓，营收增长逐渐稳定。\n假设营收从本季度 ~0.74 亿美元 ×4（全年化约 3 亿美元）增长至 ~20 亿美元。\n假设给予 P/S 市销率约 6-8 倍。\n理论市值约 20 亿 × 6 ≈ 120 亿 美元至 20 亿 × 8 ≈ 160 亿 美元。\n若股本未变，对应每股目标价应依据当前流通股数折算。\n\n乐观情景\n假设公司生态结构成功建立，USDC 流通规模及平台服务迅猛扩张，营收增长至如 50-100 亿美元水平。\n假设给予更高 P/S 倍数，例如 10-12 倍。\n若营收达 50 亿美元 ×10 = 500 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| 深度】\n本周二（10月28日），Bitwise的Solana质押ETF (BSOL)、Canary的莱特币ETF (LTCN) 和HBAR ETF (HBAR) 将通过特殊的 “8-A文件” 形式，直接登陆纽交所和纳斯达克！\n这意味着它们 绕过了常规、漫长的SEC审批流程，实现了快速上市。这不仅是加密资产主流化的关键跃迁，更可能是一种全新的“上市范式”。 \n\n1、 什么是ETF？它为何如此重要？\n首先，让我们回归基础。ETF（Exchange-Traded Fund）即“交易所交易基金”。你可以把它想象成一个“资产篮子”，里面装着股票、债券或像黄金、比特币这样的商品。这个“篮子”本身又像股票一样，可以在证券交易所自由买卖。\n对普通投资者而言，ETF的最大优势是 “简单” 和 “合规”。\n简单：无需学习如何使用加密钱包、管理私钥，只需通过传统的股票账户就能投资加密资产。\n合规：ETF受到严格的金融监管，为机构和保守型投资者提供了安全、合规的入场通道。 \n\n2、 加密货币与ETF的结缘之路\n加密世界与ETF的首次“联姻”始于 比特币。经过长达十年的申请与等待，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）终于在 2024年1月 批准了首批比特币现货ETF。 这一事件被视为币圈的“诺曼底登陆”，它为市场带来了数百亿美元的机构资金，并直接推动了比特币价格创下历史新高。\n随后，以太坊现货ETF 也在 2025年5月 获批，进一步巩固了加密资产作为主流投资品的地位。 可以说，每一次主流币种的ETF获批，都是一次将加密市场与传统金融世界深度绑定的过程。 \n\n3、揭秘“8-A文件”：本次上市的秘密通道\n那么，为什么这次的ETF能如此之快？关键在于它们利用了 “证券法第12(b)条的8-A注册文件”。\n这是一种特殊的注册形式，通常用于将已在场外市场（OTC）交易的证券转换为主板上市公司。它允许发行方 绕过标准的S-1文件审批流程，后者正是比特币ETF耗费了数年时间才走完的漫长程序。\n这本质上是利用了现有法规的一个“巧妙后门”，是华尔街在加密领域的又一次规则创新。\n\n4、本次“闪电上市”，意味着什么？\n如果说BTC/ETH的ETF是打开了传统资金进入加密世界的大门，那么这次SOL、LTC等ETF的“闪电上市”，则 打开了通往更广阔加密生态的“高速公路”。\n资产类别的承认：这标志着监管和传统金融界不再将比特币视为唯一的“合格”加密资产。Solana这类高性能公链、莱特币这类老牌加密货币的价值得到了进一步认可。\n生态系统的繁荣：从10月28日开始，ETF将直接为Solana、Hedera等公链生态系统注入新的流动性和关注度，推动其链上应用（DeFi, NFT）的发展。\n上市范式的变革：这可能为后续其他“山寨币”ETF提供了一条全新的、更高效的上市路径，大大缩短了等待时间。 \n\n5、未来影响：我们正处在哪个阶段？\n我们正处在 “加密资产ETF化” 的加速阶段。本次事件预示着一个清晰的未来趋势：\n更多“山寨币”ETF将涌现：瑞波币（XRP）、卡尔达诺（ADA）等拥有场外信托产品的币种，很可能效仿这一路径，寻求快速上市。\n投资组合多样化：投资者将能像配置不同行业的股票一样，轻松地在投资组合中配置不同的加密资产，以分散风险。\n市场成熟度提升：随着监管框架的完善和更多合规产品的出现，加密市场的波动性可能逐渐降低，市场行为将更加理性。\n\n6、总结：一个新时代的序幕\n从比特币的十年长跑到如今Solana的“闪电”登陆，ETF正在以超乎预期的速度重塑加密货币的投资版图。\n10月28日，将作为“山寨币”ETF时代开启的日子被载入史册。它不仅是资金的入口，更是加密资产获得全球金融体系认可的“通行证”，而“8-A文件”则成为了这张通行证的“快速通道”。\n作为市场的见证者，我们正在亲历历史。\n\n#加密货币 #ETF #Solana #Crypto #美股 #区块链 #Web3 #sol #Hedera #LTC #Altcoin #SEC","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,32],"entities":{"hashtags":[{"indices":[328,343],"text":"Cryptocurrency"},{"indices":[344,355],"text":"Blockchain"},{"indices":[356,360],"text":"BTC"}],"symbols":[{"indices":[312,316],"text":"BTC"},{"indices":[317,321],"text":"PRE"},{"indices":[322,327],"text":"EXOD"}],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982998397780144186","view_count":13,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761618635000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1624286098737483778","conversation_id_str":"1982998397780144186","full_text":"贝克汉姆支持的Prenetics筹集4800万美元促进比特币储备\n\n哈世链闻消息，由大卫·贝克汉姆投资的健康科学公司Prenetics（PRE）通过一轮超额认购的股权融资筹集4800万美元，资金将用于拓展其健康品牌IM8，并推进比特币储备策略。公司公告称，通过行使认股权证，总融资额可能达到2.16亿美元。该轮融资吸引了Kraken、Exodus（EXOD）、GPTX和American Ventures等投资者。首席执行官Danny Yeung表示，这些资金将帮助IM8实现全球扩张，同时每日积累1枚比特币，以期在五年内实现收入和比特币持有量均达10亿美元的目标。目前，公司拥有268.4枚比特币，价值3090万美元。\n\n$BTC $PRE $EXOD #Cryptocurrency #Blockchain 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| 深度】\n本周二（10月28日），Bitwise的Solana质押ETF (BSOL)、Canary的莱特币ETF (LTCN) 和HBAR ETF (HBAR) 将通过特殊的 “8-A文件” 形式，直接登陆纽交所和纳斯达克！\n这意味着它们 绕过了常规、漫长的SEC审批流程，实现了快速上市。这不仅是加密资产主流化的关键跃迁，更可能是一种全新的“上市范式”。 \n\n1、 什么是ETF？它为何如此重要？\n首先，让我们回归基础。ETF（Exchange-Traded Fund）即“交易所交易基金”。你可以把它想象成一个“资产篮子”，里面装着股票、债券或像黄金、比特币这样的商品。这个“篮子”本身又像股票一样，可以在证券交易所自由买卖。\n对普通投资者而言，ETF的最大优势是 “简单” 和 “合规”。\n简单：无需学习如何使用加密钱包、管理私钥，只需通过传统的股票账户就能投资加密资产。\n合规：ETF受到严格的金融监管，为机构和保守型投资者提供了安全、合规的入场通道。 \n\n2、 加密货币与ETF的结缘之路\n加密世界与ETF的首次“联姻”始于 比特币。经过长达十年的申请与等待，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）终于在 2024年1月 批准了首批比特币现货ETF。 这一事件被视为币圈的“诺曼底登陆”，它为市场带来了数百亿美元的机构资金，并直接推动了比特币价格创下历史新高。\n随后，以太坊现货ETF 也在 2025年5月 获批，进一步巩固了加密资产作为主流投资品的地位。 可以说，每一次主流币种的ETF获批，都是一次将加密市场与传统金融世界深度绑定的过程。 \n\n3、揭秘“8-A文件”：本次上市的秘密通道\n那么，为什么这次的ETF能如此之快？关键在于它们利用了 “证券法第12(b)条的8-A注册文件”。\n这是一种特殊的注册形式，通常用于将已在场外市场（OTC）交易的证券转换为主板上市公司。它允许发行方 绕过标准的S-1文件审批流程，后者正是比特币ETF耗费了数年时间才走完的漫长程序。\n这本质上是利用了现有法规的一个“巧妙后门”，是华尔街在加密领域的又一次规则创新。\n\n4、本次“闪电上市”，意味着什么？\n如果说BTC/ETH的ETF是打开了传统资金进入加密世界的大门，那么这次SOL、LTC等ETF的“闪电上市”，则 打开了通往更广阔加密生态的“高速公路”。\n资产类别的承认：这标志着监管和传统金融界不再将比特币视为唯一的“合格”加密资产。Solana这类高性能公链、莱特币这类老牌加密货币的价值得到了进一步认可。\n生态系统的繁荣：从10月28日开始，ETF将直接为Solana、Hedera等公链生态系统注入新的流动性和关注度，推动其链上应用（DeFi, NFT）的发展。\n上市范式的变革：这可能为后续其他“山寨币”ETF提供了一条全新的、更高效的上市路径，大大缩短了等待时间。 \n\n5、未来影响：我们正处在哪个阶段？\n我们正处在 “加密资产ETF化” 的加速阶段。本次事件预示着一个清晰的未来趋势：\n更多“山寨币”ETF将涌现：瑞波币（XRP）、卡尔达诺（ADA）等拥有场外信托产品的币种，很可能效仿这一路径，寻求快速上市。\n投资组合多样化：投资者将能像配置不同行业的股票一样，轻松地在投资组合中配置不同的加密资产，以分散风险。\n市场成熟度提升：随着监管框架的完善和更多合规产品的出现，加密市场的波动性可能逐渐降低，市场行为将更加理性。\n\n6、总结：一个新时代的序幕\n从比特币的十年长跑到如今Solana的“闪电”登陆，ETF正在以超乎预期的速度重塑加密货币的投资版图。\n10月28日，将作为“山寨币”ETF时代开启的日子被载入史册。它不仅是资金的入口，更是加密资产获得全球金融体系认可的“通行证”，而“8-A文件”则成为了这张通行证的“快速通道”。\n作为市场的见证者，我们正在亲历历史。\n\n#加密货币 #ETF #Solana #Crypto #美股 #区块链 #Web3 #sol #Hedera #LTC 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不等，为投资者提供心理预期参考，但不应视为保证。\n\n3、比特币生态的变化\n\n近年来，比特币生态呈现“链上百花齐放”的特征。虽然以太坊和 Solana 的 DeFi、NFT 生态发展更活跃，但比特币正在悄然升级基础设施。闪电网络扩展通道数量已突破 5 万条，总容量达到 2,200 BTC，这意味着比特币在小额支付和跨链价值传输方面的能力正稳步提升。同时，多家主要交易所和支付平台已支持闪电网络支付，提升了链上实际应用价值。\n\n长期持币地址稳步增加，显示市场认同比特币价值储存功能。同时，跨链桥、Layer‑2 协议及机构金融产品的出现，让比特币生态开始逐步承载更多金融功能和应用场景。\n\n4、比特币生态的出路\n\n比特币生态的未来不在于简单模仿其他公链开发大量链上应用，而在于强化自身独有优势：稀缺性、安全性和可信价值。其出路主要有三条方向：第一，巩固价值储存和抗审查特性，使比特币成为全球可信资产；第二，通过闪电网络和 Layer‑2 技术提升可扩展性和流动性，使比特币价值能够在更广泛的生态中流动；第三，通过 ETF、战略资产配置和金融化应用，将比特币进一步嵌入主流金融体系，形成制度性支撑。\n\n这些路径让比特币能够在链上百花齐放的环境中形成独特生态优势，而非单纯追求链上应用数量。比特币的生态定位正在从“数字黄金”向“可信价值基础设施 + 金融化资产”转型，这种独特性正成为其在未来市场竞争中的核心优势。\n\n5、总结\n\n四年周期仍是理解比特币价格波动的重要参考，但在当前市场结构和机构化趋势下，其节奏和高点可能不再像历史上那样精准。市场情绪回暖、长期持币者占比增加，加上机构资金流入，为牛市提供潜在动力，但宏观经济和政策风险依然存在。比特币生态也在加速演进，通过基础设施升级、金融化应用以及闪电网络扩展，正走出一条与其他公链不同的独特道路。在链上百花齐放的时代，比特币的稀缺性、可信性和基础设施优势，将决定其在数字资产格局中的未来位置。\n\n#BTC #Halving #BTCcycle #Macro #ETF #机构化 #Ordinals #BRC20 #Layer2 #牛市 #投资分析 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DeFi：当收益变成陷阱\n\n编辑记者：哈世链闻\n\n11 月的加密市场，本该在以太坊生态的复苏中逐渐回暖，但 DeFi 的裂缝却在悄然扩大。10·11 与 11·3 的两场“稳定币事件”让 $USDe 与 $xUSD 相继陷入困境，而昨夜的 ListaDAO—MEV Capital—USDX 连锁事件，更像是在这道裂缝上重锤一击。\n\n这场风波不仅揭示了熊市里 DeFi 收益的幻觉，也让人看到，所谓“去中心化”的稳定币体系，正变得越来越像一个高杠杆、低透明的资金自循环机器。\n\n收益型稳定币的幻觉\n\n在危机爆发之前，收益型稳定币（YBS）被许多人视为 DeFi 的“低风险创新”：\n它承诺超额抵押、稳健收益、链上透明——听起来几乎完美。\n\n理论模型是这样的：抵押 1.1 美元资产，铸造 1 美元稳定币；将其投放到 DeFi 协议赚取利息；收益的一部分分给持币人，剩下的归项目方。\n然而，在高收益的压力下，这一结构被悄然扭曲——抵押比例被美化、资产类型被混合、杠杆被提前嵌入铸造环节。\n\n这正是 xUSD 事件中所暴露的逻辑：\nStream Finance 利用 Elixir 的 deUSD 撬动四倍杠杆，将杠杆环节前置至发行阶段，形成“铸造即杠杆”的结构。表面上是超额抵押，实际上却是风险浓缩。\n\n当 60% 的发行量掌握在发行方自己手里，所谓“清算机制”早已名存实亡。\n这类结构的风险在牛市中被收益掩盖，一旦市场下行，便会像积木般塌陷。\n\n主理人机制的幻觉\n\n过去一年，DeFi 借贷协议开始引入“主理人（Curator）”制度。\nMorpho、Euler 等项目让独立团队来管理金库、挑选资产，似乎能让风险更分散、更智能。\n可当 Stream 的 xUSD 被广泛接纳后，这种分散反而成为风险的扩散器——每一个金库都在复制相同的毒性资产，最终形成链式殉爆。\n\n讽刺的是，这种“精选市场”反而削弱了用户防御意识。\nAave 像京东自营，安全问题由平台兜底；Morpho 与 Euler 更像淘宝，把安全外包给卖家。\n散户在界面上看到的是“Curated Market”的光环，却未意识到——在出问题时，没人真正负责。\n\n⸻\n\n当 CEX 变透明，DeFi 变模糊\n\n这一轮熊市的最大讽刺是：CEX（中心化交易所）因监管变得越来越透明，而 DeFi 却重新走向灰色。\n协议间的合作不再依靠智能合约，而是依靠 Telegram 群里的返佣截图与“君子协定”。\n危机爆发时，人们看到的不是链上日志，而是一张张表情包式的对话记录。\n\nVitalik 一直呼吁建设“Low-Risk DeFi”，让以太坊成为可承载社会信任的金融基础设施。\n但现实是，收益的诱惑与杠杆的惯性正在让整个行业重蹈覆辙。\n在熊市中，“低风险”常常只是“高风险的最后阶段”。\n\n⸻\n\n昨夜：ListaDAO、MEV Capital 与 USDX 的临界点\n\n11 月 5 日深夜，市场再次上演了一场惊心动魄的链上剧。\nLista Lending 的 MEV USDT Vault 的 APY 一度飙升至 3570% ——当然，那是复利计算，实际年化约在 300% 左右，日化不到 1%。\n表面上看是“超高收益机会”，实际上则是风险的信号弹。\n\n凌晨时分，ListaDAO 官方移除了 30% 的借款利率上限。\n这一步极为关键，也是极为明智的。因为在 USDX 风险逐渐暴露的背景下，唯一的“逃生窗口”，就是通过 DEX 上残余的可清算流动性，尽快完成风险出清。\n⸻\n\nAdaptiveCurveIRM 的“高压曲线”\n\n在利率上限解除后，MEV Capital 的 AdaptiveCurveIRM（自适应利率曲线机制） 开始全面接管市场行为。\n这一机制的原理简单而高效：\n当借贷池使用率超过 90% 时，借款利率不再线性上升，而是进入倍数级别的加速区。\n如果仍无法将使用率压回 90%，曲线将整体上移，利率以指数级别继续飙升。\n\n这一机制最早在 FRAX 的 Curve 清算事件中发挥过作用——它不需要人工干预，只通过经济激励迫使借款人自发平仓，从而保护流动性池的健康。\nMEV Capital 这次同样选择了“放任”机制自动反应，没有过度干预。\n从风险控制角度看，这是合理的选择：\n更激进的利率曲线，反而是更稳健的风控工具。\n\n不过需要指出的是，MEV Capital 当前还背负着 Stream Finance 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高性能交易平台。对于部分人来说，可以先了解平台的功能和积分机制，等代币正式发行后，再关注发行细节和锁仓计划。\n你认为它会成为加密明星项目吗？\n\n本文仅供参考，不构成投资者建议，市场高风险，入市需谨慎。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,140],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/LQyjQ2bmMG","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988869722679701878/photo/1","id_str":"1988869707492171776","indices":[141,164],"media_key":"3_1988869707492171776","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5nidiObIAAUGRF.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/LQyjQ2bmMG","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":468,"w":1199,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":468,"w":1199,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":265,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":468,"width":1199,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":836,"h":468},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":468,"h":468},{"x":4,"y":0,"w":411,"h":468},{"x":92,"y":0,"w":234,"h":468},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1199,"h":468}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988869707492171776"}}},{"display_url":"pic.x.com/LQyjQ2bmMG","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988869722679701878/photo/1","id_str":"1988869612763860992","indices":[141,164],"media_key":"3_1988869612763860992","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5niYBVb0AAq1hK.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/LQyjQ2bmMG","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":600,"w":928,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":600,"w":928,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":440,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":600,"width":928,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":80,"w":928,"h":520},{"x":164,"y":0,"w":600,"h":600},{"x":201,"y":0,"w":526,"h":600},{"x":314,"y":0,"w":300,"h":600},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":928,"h":600}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988869612763860992"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/LQyjQ2bmMG","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988869722679701878/photo/1","id_str":"1988869707492171776","indices":[141,164],"media_key":"3_1988869707492171776","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5nidiObIAAUGRF.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/LQyjQ2bmMG","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":468,"w":1199,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":468,"w":1199,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":265,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":468,"width":1199,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":836,"h":468},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":468,"h":468},{"x":4,"y":0,"w":411,"h":468},{"x":92,"y":0,"w":234,"h":468},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1199,"h":468}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988869707492171776"}}},{"display_url":"pic.x.com/LQyjQ2bmMG","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988869722679701878/photo/1","id_str":"1988869612763860992","indices":[141,164],"media_key":"3_1988869612763860992","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5niYBVb0AAq1hK.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/LQyjQ2bmMG","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":600,"w":928,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":600,"w":928,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":440,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":600,"width":928,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":80,"w":928,"h":520},{"x":164,"y":0,"w":600,"h":600},{"x":201,"y":0,"w":526,"h":600},{"x":314,"y":0,"w":300,"h":600},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":928,"h":600}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988869612763860992"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988869722679701878","view_count":124,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763018467000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1624286098737483778","conversation_id_str":"1988869722679701878","full_text":"《恐惧重临：恐惧指数跌至14，币圈进入“极度寒意”时刻》\n\n最近市场的情绪，冷到有点刺骨。\n今天的加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数降至14，这意味着市场情绪正式进入「极度恐惧」区间。\n上一次跌到这个水平的，还是在去年大跌前后的那段“黑暗时刻”。那么问题来了——这一次的恐惧，到底意味着什么？\n\n什么是恐惧指数？\n\n恐惧与贪婪指数（Fear & Greed Index）是一个衡量市场情绪的指标，范围从 0 到 100。\n\n0-25 属于极度恐惧：投资者普遍悲观，市场处于情绪低谷。\n\n75-100 属于极度贪婪：投资者过于乐观，市场可能过热。\n\n当前的 14，是过去三个月来的最低值，说明资金情绪趋冷，恐慌蔓延，短期资金大规模撤离。\n\n市场为何突然降温？\n\n一是近期数据显示，24小时内全市场爆仓规模大幅上升（数亿美元量级），同时总未平仓头寸有所回落，说明资金在短时间内被强制平仓或主动撤出。衍生品市场去杠杆会迅速放大下跌：一部分被动爆仓造成价格进一步下探，触发更多自动清算，形成自放大下行。\n二是面对稳定币风险和高波动，做市商、套利基金会收缩盘口、撤回挂单或提高点差（尤其在 DeFi 与小众 DEX 上更明显），导致买盘稀疏、卖压更容易把价格推低——这在链上订单簿深度与 DEX 交易量中都有体现。新闻对“流动性收缩”和部分交易所/协议监测到的异常流动性问题已有报道。\n三是近期关于 ETF 批准窗口、监管机关动作（及市场对其可能介入/限制的担忧）使得机构资金变得谨慎。特别是 ETF/监管节奏有不确定性时，机构会倾向于减仓以等待规则明朗，进而减少买方支撑。相关讨论在近期关于 ETF 批准与监管节奏的报道中频繁出现。\n\n冰点中孕育机会\n\n短期看，恐惧情绪带来的是抛压和观望：\n新项目难获关注；\n主流币交投量下降；\n机构与散户同步避险。\n\n但长期看，极度恐惧往往孕育底部信号。\n历史上每一次指数跌破20，都对应了中长期的布局窗口，比如：2022年FTX暴雷时，恐惧指数在12附近，BTC后续从15,000美元反弹至30,000美元；\n2023年黑天鹅期间跌到10，结果半年后BTC翻倍。\n所以，「恐惧」有时候反而是聪明资金的“进场信号灯”。\n\n对比历史：每一次“极度恐惧”之后，市场都发生了什么？\n2020年3月，疫情暴跌时恐惧指数跌到8，BTC在5000美元附近。三个月后，价格翻倍。\n\n2022年11月，FTX崩盘时恐惧指数跌到12，BTC在1.5万美元。四个月后涨到3万美元。\n\n2023年8月，加息周期末期恐惧指数17，BTC在2.5万美元。三个月后反弹至4.2万美元。\n\n现在，2025年11月，恐惧指数14，BTC在5.8万美元。拐点是否又在酝酿？\n\n历史告诉我们：\n 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INX TGE前瞻：Patron NFT持有者获赠10万枚代币，跨链DeFi生态再升级》\n\n哈世链闻消息，跨链聚合 #DeFi平台 #Infinex 宣布即将启动 #INX代币 生成事件（TGE），#PatronNFT 持有者将按 1:100,000 比例空投 10 万枚 #INX，同时平台通过 #Sonar 销售和 #Craterun 活动进一步分发代币。\n本文将围绕 #INX 项目基础信息、治理机制、竞品对比及风险等进行通俗解读。\n\n项目基础信息\n\n项目简介\n#Infinex 是一个定位“超级 #crypto 应用”的平台，旨在将 #跨链聚合、#去中心化交易、#钱包管理、#桥接（bridge）、#交易终端、钱包扩展等功能整合到一个产品里，由 Kain Warwick（曾为 Synthetix 联合创始人）领导。 \n其主张：借助多条链、抽象 gas、极简用户体验，让用户能够像用集中式交易所（CEX）那样方便，又同时保有去中心化、自主控制钱包资产的体验。 \n\nINX 代币基本参数\n\n代币名称：#INX（也称 #INX代币）\n\n总供应量（或上限）：根据 Infinex 官方披露，流传关于 “10 b（10 0 亿）枚” 的数字，即 100 亿枚。\n空投/分发机制：Infinex 表示其 TGE（代币生成事件）将来：“100 % 的供应分配给 Patrons（Patron NFT 持有者）”这一说法。 \n具体为：总共有 100,000 个 Patron NFT，每一个将获得 100,000 枚 INX。 \n同时 uPatron 持有者（微型版本 NFT）将按 1:10 的比例获得 INX。 \n团队持有份额：官方披露团队份额占总量约 20%。\n团队代币将锁定 12 个月，然后再线性释放 12 个月。\n\n初始发行时间 / TGE 时间：尚无公开精确日期，仅知 “TGE 即将到来” 的声明发布于 2025 年11月。 \n初始发行价：官方披露并未给出一个明确的公开发行价数字，而在其 “Craterun 奖励”文中提到“基于 Patron NFT 价格，隐含 INX 价格约 5 美分（$0.05）” 的印象。 \n上线平台 / 支持链：Infinex 表示其将在 TGE 第一日支持三条新链：Monad、MegaEth、Fogo。 \n\n代币用途：\n\n持有 Patron NFT 可获 INX；\nINX 被用于平台激励分发、用户活动奖励；\n根据 Infinex 的叙述，INX 还用于捕获平台收入（例如通过平台产生的手续费或利润回购代币）以支持代币价值。\n\n是否有销毁机制 / 铸币增发机制 / 动态调节供应：\n官方披露中 没有明确提到销毁机制（burn）。\n关于是否增发或动态调节供应，目前披露为 “总供应量固定100 亿枚” 的表述，暂未见公开说明后续增发。\n也未明确提到减半、回购销毁等机制。\n\n流通量 / 初始流通盘比例 / FDV：\n因尚未 TGE，上线前流通量数据尚不可见。官方称分配给 Patron NFT，即 100 000 个 NFT × 100 000 枚 = 10 亿枚分配给 Patrons，其余供应（如 90 亿枚）可能由 Treasury／激励池／团队持有。\n\n核心亮点：\n多链支持 + 跨链抽象 gas 体验：Infinex 强调支持新链、桥接、无痛转移资产。\n公平分发机制：利用 NFT + Craterun 等活动让更多用户进入分发机制，而非传统 VC 私募。\n团队承诺锁仓机制：团队持币锁定 12 个月＋12 个月线性释放，体现一定长期绑定意愿。\n平台设计定位：尝试将去中心化钱包/交易体验与 CEX 体验融合，降低用户进入门槛。\n\n是否存在砸盘风险 / 价格稳定机制：\n由于尚未大规模流通，早期代币持有者（如 Patron NFT 持有者）若解锁即卖出，存在较大抛售压力。\n官方提及将用“平台收入回购代币”机制（Revenue → Buy‑Back）来支撑代币。\n但未见完整披露明确的价格稳定机制（例如锁仓期、回购比例、销毁机制）细节。\n\n合规风险：\n虽然项目在宣传中强调支持多链、新链、抽象 gas，但目前尚无明确披露其合规机制（如是否在特定地区注册）且新链支持本身带来技术与法律风险。\n如果代币被认定为证券或金融产品，可能受限当地法律监管。\n\n解锁风险：\n团队锁仓虽有明确机制，但早期持有者（如 Patron NFT 持有者）解锁期安排是否透明、是否有提前售卖风险仍需观察。\n倘若大量 Patron NFT 持有者在解锁后同步抛售，可能对价格造成下行压力。\n\nInfinex 的 INX 项目目前处于“预发行／TGE前”阶段，核心亮点聚焦于跨链 UX、用户分发及社区机制。但由于尚未完全上线披露，很多关键参数仍处于预设状态。\n\n治理机制\nPatron NFT 持有者：Infinex 表示该 NFT 持有者是获取 INX 的主要方式之一。 \n治理模型：根据 OakResearch 整理，Patron NFT 持有者将通过选举方式选出一个“委员会（council）”，由该委员会代表持有者执行治理决策（如选择资产、协议功能、技术路线）而非每一次都让全体持有者直接 vote。 \n决策方向包括：资产上线、功能实现、协议方向等。Patron NFT 作为治理身份凭证。\n代币治理权：目前尚无公开资料显示 INX 代币本身是否赋予投票权、权益参与等；主要治理权似乎与Patron NFT 关联。\n治理激励机制：平台通过 Crate Run、活动获取用户参与权，并通过这些方式扩大社区参与度。\n \n整体来看，治理机制试图结合 NFT + 代币分发＋用户参与，但具体运作细节（如委员会选举机制、代币持有者权利、提案机制、否决机制）尚未完全公开，仍需进一步观察。\n\n竞品对比\n为了更好理解 Infinex 所处的位置，我们选取两类竞品进行对比：跨链聚合／交易体验型项目，以及传统交易所代币／平台代币。\n竞品 A：跨链聚合／交易体验型\n\n1inch Network／其代币 1INCH：作为跨链聚合器＋ DEX 路由器，用户可通过代币参与治理、手续费返还等。\nParaswap 等同类聚合器。\n对比 Infinex 的优势与劣势：\n优势：Infinex 着重将“钱包”、“交易终端”、“桥接聚合”融合，并强调用户体验（UX）与多链支持，目标不仅仅是一个路由器。\n劣势：1inch 等已有成熟生态、用户基础、路由量，Infinex 为新项目，尚需证明其技术落地、用户增长及聚合效果。\n竞品 B：平台代币/交易所代币\nBNB (Binance 币)：用于交易所手续费折扣、生态建设、回购销毁。\n\nInfinex 的 INX 更偏项目生态代币＋社区分发机制，而不是传统交易所代币。其亮点在于“公平分发＋NFT ＋平台收入回购”。但传统交易所代币通常有成熟市场、流动性、较高认知度，Infinex 需努力建立信任与生态。\n\nInfinex 在“用户体验＋跨链＋公平分发”三大方向有亮点，若能成功落地，与上述竞品相比有差异化优势。但挑战也显著——生态是否能快速获取用户、技术是否稳定、代币分发机制是否公平、市场能否接受其新模式等。\n\n风险提示\n在考虑投资或参与该项目之前，需重点关注以下风险：\n流动性与抛售风险\n早期 NFT 持有者获得较大份额（每个 Patron NFT 可获 100,000 枚 INX），若解锁后集中出售，可能对价格造成冲击。\n虽团队锁仓机制明确，但其它持有者锁仓情况尚未披露。\n\n代币模型未完全落实风险\n虽然宣称“平台收入回购代币”作为价值支撑，但未见完整公开回购机制、回购比例、销毁计划等。\n若代币仅作奖励分发而无明确增值机制，可能导致价值承诺难以兑现。\n合规／监管风险\n项目跨链、全球化、涉及 NFT + 代币分发，可能受到各国证券法、税务法、KYC/AML 问题影响。\n若代币被认定为证券，可能被监管机构约束。\n生态执行风险\nInfinex 的愿景较大（多链支持、抽象 gas、钱包+终端一体化），但技术实现、用户获取、市场竞争均为挑战。若用户增长未达预期，代币价值支撑将受影响。\n竞品众多，用户迁移成本高。若体验不如预期，可能难以突破。\n解锁时间表透明度风险\n团队锁仓期明确，但 NFT 持有者、激励池、早期投资者解锁条款不一定完全透明。解锁后的大规模抛售可能带来负面冲击。\n价格波动与市场风险\n新代币上线初期，市场对其认知、流动性、支持者信心尚在建设中，价格极易波动。投资者需承受较高波动风险。\n\n请注意：本文仅为信息整理与分析，不构成任何投资建议。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,151],"entities":{"hashtags":[{"indices":[36,43],"text":"史上最长停摆"},{"indices":[36,43],"text":"史上最长停摆"},{"indices":[253,257],"text":"比特币"},{"indices":[260,264],"text":"山寨币"},{"indices":[575,581],"text":"美联储政策"},{"indices":[800,804],"text":"BTC"},{"indices":[861,865],"text":"BTC"},{"indices":[866,870],"text":"ETH"},{"indices":[875,879],"text":"山寨币"},{"indices":[912,916],"text":"ETF"}],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E7AteEIPsI","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988906513730044122/photo/1","id_str":"1988906495644450816","indices":[152,175],"media_key":"3_1988906495644450816","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5oD64xawAAXJM3.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E7AteEIPsI","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":749,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":749,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":424,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":749,"width":1200,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":77,"w":1200,"h":672},{"x":135,"y":0,"w":749,"h":749},{"x":181,"y":0,"w":657,"h":749},{"x":322,"y":0,"w":375,"h":749},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1200,"h":749}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988906495644450816"}}},{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E7AteEIPsI","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988906513730044122/photo/1","id_str":"1988906495644430337","indices":[152,175],"media_key":"3_1988906495644430337","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5oD64xacAE6Zr8.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E7AteEIPsI","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1200,"w":848,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":1200,"w":848,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":680,"w":481,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":1200,"width":848,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":153,"w":848,"h":475},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":848},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":967},{"x":248,"y":0,"w":600,"h":1200},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":1200}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988906495644430337"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E7AteEIPsI","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988906513730044122/photo/1","id_str":"1988906495644450816","indices":[152,175],"media_key":"3_1988906495644450816","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5oD64xawAAXJM3.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E7AteEIPsI","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":749,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":749,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":424,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":749,"width":1200,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":77,"w":1200,"h":672},{"x":135,"y":0,"w":749,"h":749},{"x":181,"y":0,"w":657,"h":749},{"x":322,"y":0,"w":375,"h":749},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1200,"h":749}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988906495644450816"}}},{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E7AteEIPsI","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988906513730044122/photo/1","id_str":"1988906495644430337","indices":[152,175],"media_key":"3_1988906495644430337","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5oD64xacAE6Zr8.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E7AteEIPsI","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1200,"w":848,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":1200,"w":848,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":680,"w":481,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":1200,"width":848,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":153,"w":848,"h":475},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":848},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":967},{"x":248,"y":0,"w":600,"h":1200},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":1200}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988906495644430337"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988906513730044122","view_count":31,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763027239000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1624286098737483778","conversati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40 天的“#史上最长停摆”，美国政府终于确认可以恢复运作。这意味着财政部 TGA（Treasury General Account，总账户）终于可以“开闸”，释放过去几周被锁在账户中的巨额资金——大约 1 万亿美元的流动性即将重新回到市场。\n\n停摆期间，由于政府无法按计划支出，TGA 从约 3000 亿美元猛增至超过 1 万亿美元，相当于短短 40 天里把超过 7000 亿美元从市场中抽走，造成了结构性的“美元荒”。这一流动性紧缩，是导致 #比特币 和 #山寨币 在 11 月初非但守不住 10 万美元，甚至跌破 9.9 万美元的关键因素。\n值得注意的是：为什么说政府开门后，市场大概率是先跌后涨呢？原因在于两个因素的错位叠加：\n\n一个是数据黑洞引发短期恐慌，停摆导致劳工统计局（BLS）和其他关键数据部门瘫痪。9 月就业数据是“拼凑”，10 月 CPI、PPI、PCE 等通胀数据甚至可能缺失。美联储主席鲍威尔一向强调“数据驱动”（Data-Dependent），但现在“无数据可依”，导致市场无法判断未来货币政策走向。\n\n这种不确定性让华尔街交易员倾向于抛售高风险资产，市场短期出现回调，哪怕政府刚开门、流动性即将释放。\n10 月 31 日，隔夜拆借利率飙升至 4.22%，高于 #美联储政策 上限 4%，银行纷纷冲向美联储紧急窗口，总额达 503.5 亿美元，显示市场“缺钱”的恐慌真实存在。\n\n二是流动性释放尚未完全入市，虽然 TGA 1 万亿美元即将释放，但市场的“蓄水池”——RRP（逆回购工具）余额已降至不足 800 亿美元，无法吸收所有流动性。这意味着资金短期内需要寻找合适的风险资产配置，这个过程存在错配和短期震荡，导致市场先跌后涨。\n\n对于加密市场而言，政府开门带来的先跌后涨格局，有几个直接影响：\n短期波动加大：#BTC 可能会在 10万美元附近经历震荡。\n长期流动性利好：TGA 的释放会直接流入银行准备金，推动风险资产配置，包括 #BTC、#ETH 和主要 #山寨币。\nETF 和合规资金加速入场：SEC 复工后，将批准更多山寨币 #ETF，为市场注入合法资金，山寨币也会有利好。\n\n类似情况曾在历史上出现过：\n\n2013 年美国政府部分停摆：停摆结束前比特币短线下跌约 15%，停摆结束后一周内快速反弹 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Gate首发上线Play Solana现货交易\n\n哈世链闻消息，Gate将于2025年11月14日22:00（UTC+8）首发上线Play Solana (PLAYSOLANA)现货交易。\n\n$PLAYSOLANA #GateExchange #Cryptocurrency #Blockchain #Solana #CryptoTrading","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,182],"entities":{"hashtags":[{"indices":[275,290],"text":"Cryptocurrency"},{"indices":[291,302],"text":"Blockchain"},{"indices":[303,312],"text":"Coinbase"},{"indices":[313,321],"text":"Binance"}],"symbols":[{"indices":[264,269],"text":"BANK"},{"indices":[270,274],"text":"MET"}],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988973526364364911","view_count":21,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763043216000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1624286098737483778","conversation_id_str":"1988973526364364911","full_text":"币安交易所实时公告： 币安上线Lorenzo Protocol (BANK)和Meteora (MET)\n\n哈世链闻消息，币安推出Lorenzo Protocol (BANK)和Meteora (MET)，计划于2025年11月13日22:00上线。届时用户可通过币安理财、闪兑和一键买币等平台购买这些加密货币。用户可以使用信用卡、Google Pay、Apple Pay等方式购买，并在现货上线后一小时内开始交易。此外，这些代币可在币安的全仓、逐仓杠杆中进行支持。币安提醒用户新上币种可能波动较大，建议交易时注意风险管理。\n\n$BANK $MET #Cryptocurrency #Blockchain #Coinbase 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Internet Group 是一家金融科技（FinTech）公司，致力于打造“互联网金融基础设施”。其核心目标是将区块链、稳定币、数字资产基础设施与传统金融系统连接起来。\n\n主营业务\n主要可拆分为以下几类：\n稳定币发行与流通：公司是知名稳定币 USD Coin（USDC）的主要发行方之一，其发行、赎回、管理及流通规模是其核心资产。\n准备金／利息收入：USDC 背后的准备金（通常为现金或短期国债等低风险资产）为公司带来利息或回报。\n平台与开发者服务：公司提供 API、钱包／铸币／赎币服务，帮助开发者、金融机构、支付公司将稳定币或数字资产集成进其业务。\n区块链基础设施扩张：公司推出的 Arc Network（Layer-1 区块链）测试网、“Circle Payments Network”（CPN）支付网络等，意在构建生态平台，未来可能推出原生代币。\n\n市场与竞争环境\n市场需求：随着区块链应用（如 DeFi、链上支付、跨境结算）扩展，稳定币作为桥梁资产与链上工具地位加强。\n竞争与风险：USDC 虽具规模，但仍面临如 Tether USD（USDT）等先行者竞争；此外，监管、利率、信任机制、流通安全等均为潜在挑战。\n\n模式亮点\n网络效应：USDC 流通规模越大、链上应用越广，公司越能从中获益。\n成本／规模杠杆：稳定币规模扩大后，稀释了单位成本，提升盈利。\n长期愿景为 “互联网经济 OS”：公司管理层提出，其不仅是稳定币发行方，更定位为构建下一代互联网金融操作系统。\n\n最新业绩 &成长动能\n\nQ3 2025 财报关键数据\n根据公司披露：\nUSDC 流通规模约 737 亿美元，年增长约 108%。 \n本季度“总收入 + 储备收入”约 7.40 亿美元，同比增长约 66%。\n 净利润约 2.14 亿美元，同比增长约 202%。\n调整后 EBITDA 约 1.66 亿美元，同比增长约 78%。 \n公司宣布其 Arc 公测网已吸引 100 + 家金融或科技公司参与；正在探索推出 Arc 原生代币。 \n公司更新全年“Other Revenue”（即非储备相关收入）预期至 9000–10000 万美元。 \n\n解读：成长驱动力\n流通规模翻倍以上，说明其稳定币产品在市场上的渗透及采用显著加速。\n收入及盈利大幅增长，表明不仅规模扩大，且盈利能力初步显现。\n业务结构开始从单纯“准备金利息”向“生态／平台服务”扩展（“Other Revenue”增长、Arc／CPN 等战略项目推进）。\n虽市场反应谨慎（如因利率下降可能影响利息收益）但从经营数据看，公司成长性明显。\n\n行业地位与竞争比较\n在稳定币发行市场，USDC 是主要资产之一，且其流通规模和链上交易量都在迅速扩张。\n\n公司通过扩展支付网络、区块链生态、代币化资产服务，试图从“一张稳定币”扩展到“一个平台生态”。\n相比仅发行稳定币的机构，Circle 的优势在于构建更广泛的基础设施，但同时也承担更高成长型投资与平台构建风险。\n行业风险包括监管（如稳定币定义、合规要求）、利率环境（影响准备金收益）、技术／信任风险（储备透明度、用户信心）等。\n\n估值数据\n\n根据 StockAnalysis，当前市值约 USD 20.7 B，企业价值（EV）约 USD 21.55 B。\n主要估值比率（截至最近）：\nP/S（市销率）约 4.61 倍。 \nEV/Revenue ≈ 15.10 倍。 \nP/B（市净率）约 13.69 倍。 \n根据 SimplyWallSt：P/S 约 10.7 倍（不同数据源略有差别）且指出其较同业偏高。\n \n估值分析\n\n为便于理解，构建两个基本估值情景：保守与乐观。\n\n保守情景\n假设未来 2-3 年内，USDC 流通规模继续增长，但增长速度放缓，营收增长逐渐稳定。\n假设营收从本季度 ~0.74 亿美元 ×4（全年化约 3 亿美元）增长至 ~20 亿美元。\n假设给予 P/S 市销率约 6-8 倍。\n理论市值约 20 亿 × 6 ≈ 120 亿 美元至 20 亿 × 8 ≈ 160 亿 美元。\n若股本未变，对应每股目标价应依据当前流通股数折算。\n\n乐观情景\n假设公司生态结构成功建立，USDC 流通规模及平台服务迅猛扩张，营收增长至如 50-100 亿美元水平。\n假设给予更高 P/S 倍数，例如 10-12 倍。\n若营收达 50 亿美元 ×10 = 500 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| 深度】\n本周二（10月28日），Bitwise的Solana质押ETF (BSOL)、Canary的莱特币ETF (LTCN) 和HBAR ETF (HBAR) 将通过特殊的 “8-A文件” 形式，直接登陆纽交所和纳斯达克！\n这意味着它们 绕过了常规、漫长的SEC审批流程，实现了快速上市。这不仅是加密资产主流化的关键跃迁，更可能是一种全新的“上市范式”。 \n\n1、 什么是ETF？它为何如此重要？\n首先，让我们回归基础。ETF（Exchange-Traded Fund）即“交易所交易基金”。你可以把它想象成一个“资产篮子”，里面装着股票、债券或像黄金、比特币这样的商品。这个“篮子”本身又像股票一样，可以在证券交易所自由买卖。\n对普通投资者而言，ETF的最大优势是 “简单” 和 “合规”。\n简单：无需学习如何使用加密钱包、管理私钥，只需通过传统的股票账户就能投资加密资产。\n合规：ETF受到严格的金融监管，为机构和保守型投资者提供了安全、合规的入场通道。 \n\n2、 加密货币与ETF的结缘之路\n加密世界与ETF的首次“联姻”始于 比特币。经过长达十年的申请与等待，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）终于在 2024年1月 批准了首批比特币现货ETF。 这一事件被视为币圈的“诺曼底登陆”，它为市场带来了数百亿美元的机构资金，并直接推动了比特币价格创下历史新高。\n随后，以太坊现货ETF 也在 2025年5月 获批，进一步巩固了加密资产作为主流投资品的地位。 可以说，每一次主流币种的ETF获批，都是一次将加密市场与传统金融世界深度绑定的过程。 \n\n3、揭秘“8-A文件”：本次上市的秘密通道\n那么，为什么这次的ETF能如此之快？关键在于它们利用了 “证券法第12(b)条的8-A注册文件”。\n这是一种特殊的注册形式，通常用于将已在场外市场（OTC）交易的证券转换为主板上市公司。它允许发行方 绕过标准的S-1文件审批流程，后者正是比特币ETF耗费了数年时间才走完的漫长程序。\n这本质上是利用了现有法规的一个“巧妙后门”，是华尔街在加密领域的又一次规则创新。\n\n4、本次“闪电上市”，意味着什么？\n如果说BTC/ETH的ETF是打开了传统资金进入加密世界的大门，那么这次SOL、LTC等ETF的“闪电上市”，则 打开了通往更广阔加密生态的“高速公路”。\n资产类别的承认：这标志着监管和传统金融界不再将比特币视为唯一的“合格”加密资产。Solana这类高性能公链、莱特币这类老牌加密货币的价值得到了进一步认可。\n生态系统的繁荣：从10月28日开始，ETF将直接为Solana、Hedera等公链生态系统注入新的流动性和关注度，推动其链上应用（DeFi, NFT）的发展。\n上市范式的变革：这可能为后续其他“山寨币”ETF提供了一条全新的、更高效的上市路径，大大缩短了等待时间。 \n\n5、未来影响：我们正处在哪个阶段？\n我们正处在 “加密资产ETF化” 的加速阶段。本次事件预示着一个清晰的未来趋势：\n更多“山寨币”ETF将涌现：瑞波币（XRP）、卡尔达诺（ADA）等拥有场外信托产品的币种，很可能效仿这一路径，寻求快速上市。\n投资组合多样化：投资者将能像配置不同行业的股票一样，轻松地在投资组合中配置不同的加密资产，以分散风险。\n市场成熟度提升：随着监管框架的完善和更多合规产品的出现，加密市场的波动性可能逐渐降低，市场行为将更加理性。\n\n6、总结：一个新时代的序幕\n从比特币的十年长跑到如今Solana的“闪电”登陆，ETF正在以超乎预期的速度重塑加密货币的投资版图。\n10月28日，将作为“山寨币”ETF时代开启的日子被载入史册。它不仅是资金的入口，更是加密资产获得全球金融体系认可的“通行证”，而“8-A文件”则成为了这张通行证的“快速通道”。\n作为市场的见证者，我们正在亲历历史。\n\n#加密货币 #ETF #Solana #Crypto #美股 #区块链 #Web3 #sol #Hedera #LTC #Altcoin #SEC","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,32],"entities":{"hashtags":[{"indices":[328,343],"text":"Cryptocurrency"},{"indices":[344,355],"text":"Blockchain"},{"indices":[356,360],"text":"BTC"}],"symbols":[{"indices":[312,316],"text":"BTC"},{"indices":[317,321],"text":"PRE"},{"indices":[322,327],"text":"EXOD"}],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982998397780144186","view_count":13,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761618635000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1624286098737483778","conversation_id_str":"1982998397780144186","full_text":"贝克汉姆支持的Prenetics筹集4800万美元促进比特币储备\n\n哈世链闻消息，由大卫·贝克汉姆投资的健康科学公司Prenetics（PRE）通过一轮超额认购的股权融资筹集4800万美元，资金将用于拓展其健康品牌IM8，并推进比特币储备策略。公司公告称，通过行使认股权证，总融资额可能达到2.16亿美元。该轮融资吸引了Kraken、Exodus（EXOD）、GPTX和American Ventures等投资者。首席执行官Danny Yeung表示，这些资金将帮助IM8实现全球扩张，同时每日积累1枚比特币，以期在五年内实现收入和比特币持有量均达10亿美元的目标。目前，公司拥有268.4枚比特币，价值3090万美元。\n\n$BTC $PRE $EXOD #Cryptocurrency #Blockchain 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| 深度】\n本周二（10月28日），Bitwise的Solana质押ETF (BSOL)、Canary的莱特币ETF (LTCN) 和HBAR ETF (HBAR) 将通过特殊的 “8-A文件” 形式，直接登陆纽交所和纳斯达克！\n这意味着它们 绕过了常规、漫长的SEC审批流程，实现了快速上市。这不仅是加密资产主流化的关键跃迁，更可能是一种全新的“上市范式”。 \n\n1、 什么是ETF？它为何如此重要？\n首先，让我们回归基础。ETF（Exchange-Traded Fund）即“交易所交易基金”。你可以把它想象成一个“资产篮子”，里面装着股票、债券或像黄金、比特币这样的商品。这个“篮子”本身又像股票一样，可以在证券交易所自由买卖。\n对普通投资者而言，ETF的最大优势是 “简单” 和 “合规”。\n简单：无需学习如何使用加密钱包、管理私钥，只需通过传统的股票账户就能投资加密资产。\n合规：ETF受到严格的金融监管，为机构和保守型投资者提供了安全、合规的入场通道。 \n\n2、 加密货币与ETF的结缘之路\n加密世界与ETF的首次“联姻”始于 比特币。经过长达十年的申请与等待，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）终于在 2024年1月 批准了首批比特币现货ETF。 这一事件被视为币圈的“诺曼底登陆”，它为市场带来了数百亿美元的机构资金，并直接推动了比特币价格创下历史新高。\n随后，以太坊现货ETF 也在 2025年5月 获批，进一步巩固了加密资产作为主流投资品的地位。 可以说，每一次主流币种的ETF获批，都是一次将加密市场与传统金融世界深度绑定的过程。 \n\n3、揭秘“8-A文件”：本次上市的秘密通道\n那么，为什么这次的ETF能如此之快？关键在于它们利用了 “证券法第12(b)条的8-A注册文件”。\n这是一种特殊的注册形式，通常用于将已在场外市场（OTC）交易的证券转换为主板上市公司。它允许发行方 绕过标准的S-1文件审批流程，后者正是比特币ETF耗费了数年时间才走完的漫长程序。\n这本质上是利用了现有法规的一个“巧妙后门”，是华尔街在加密领域的又一次规则创新。\n\n4、本次“闪电上市”，意味着什么？\n如果说BTC/ETH的ETF是打开了传统资金进入加密世界的大门，那么这次SOL、LTC等ETF的“闪电上市”，则 打开了通往更广阔加密生态的“高速公路”。\n资产类别的承认：这标志着监管和传统金融界不再将比特币视为唯一的“合格”加密资产。Solana这类高性能公链、莱特币这类老牌加密货币的价值得到了进一步认可。\n生态系统的繁荣：从10月28日开始，ETF将直接为Solana、Hedera等公链生态系统注入新的流动性和关注度，推动其链上应用（DeFi, NFT）的发展。\n上市范式的变革：这可能为后续其他“山寨币”ETF提供了一条全新的、更高效的上市路径，大大缩短了等待时间。 \n\n5、未来影响：我们正处在哪个阶段？\n我们正处在 “加密资产ETF化” 的加速阶段。本次事件预示着一个清晰的未来趋势：\n更多“山寨币”ETF将涌现：瑞波币（XRP）、卡尔达诺（ADA）等拥有场外信托产品的币种，很可能效仿这一路径，寻求快速上市。\n投资组合多样化：投资者将能像配置不同行业的股票一样，轻松地在投资组合中配置不同的加密资产，以分散风险。\n市场成熟度提升：随着监管框架的完善和更多合规产品的出现，加密市场的波动性可能逐渐降低，市场行为将更加理性。\n\n6、总结：一个新时代的序幕\n从比特币的十年长跑到如今Solana的“闪电”登陆，ETF正在以超乎预期的速度重塑加密货币的投资版图。\n10月28日，将作为“山寨币”ETF时代开启的日子被载入史册。它不仅是资金的入口，更是加密资产获得全球金融体系认可的“通行证”，而“8-A文件”则成为了这张通行证的“快速通道”。\n作为市场的见证者，我们正在亲历历史。\n\n#加密货币 #ETF #Solana #Crypto #美股 #区块链 #Web3 #sol #Hedera #LTC 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不等，为投资者提供心理预期参考，但不应视为保证。\n\n3、比特币生态的变化\n\n近年来，比特币生态呈现“链上百花齐放”的特征。虽然以太坊和 Solana 的 DeFi、NFT 生态发展更活跃，但比特币正在悄然升级基础设施。闪电网络扩展通道数量已突破 5 万条，总容量达到 2,200 BTC，这意味着比特币在小额支付和跨链价值传输方面的能力正稳步提升。同时，多家主要交易所和支付平台已支持闪电网络支付，提升了链上实际应用价值。\n\n长期持币地址稳步增加，显示市场认同比特币价值储存功能。同时，跨链桥、Layer‑2 协议及机构金融产品的出现，让比特币生态开始逐步承载更多金融功能和应用场景。\n\n4、比特币生态的出路\n\n比特币生态的未来不在于简单模仿其他公链开发大量链上应用，而在于强化自身独有优势：稀缺性、安全性和可信价值。其出路主要有三条方向：第一，巩固价值储存和抗审查特性，使比特币成为全球可信资产；第二，通过闪电网络和 Layer‑2 技术提升可扩展性和流动性，使比特币价值能够在更广泛的生态中流动；第三，通过 ETF、战略资产配置和金融化应用，将比特币进一步嵌入主流金融体系，形成制度性支撑。\n\n这些路径让比特币能够在链上百花齐放的环境中形成独特生态优势，而非单纯追求链上应用数量。比特币的生态定位正在从“数字黄金”向“可信价值基础设施 + 金融化资产”转型，这种独特性正成为其在未来市场竞争中的核心优势。\n\n5、总结\n\n四年周期仍是理解比特币价格波动的重要参考，但在当前市场结构和机构化趋势下，其节奏和高点可能不再像历史上那样精准。市场情绪回暖、长期持币者占比增加，加上机构资金流入，为牛市提供潜在动力，但宏观经济和政策风险依然存在。比特币生态也在加速演进，通过基础设施升级、金融化应用以及闪电网络扩展，正走出一条与其他公链不同的独特道路。在链上百花齐放的时代，比特币的稀缺性、可信性和基础设施优势，将决定其在数字资产格局中的未来位置。\n\n#BTC #Halving #BTCcycle #Macro #ETF #机构化 #Ordinals #BRC20 #Layer2 #牛市 #投资分析 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DeFi：当收益变成陷阱\n\n编辑记者：哈世链闻\n\n11 月的加密市场，本该在以太坊生态的复苏中逐渐回暖，但 DeFi 的裂缝却在悄然扩大。10·11 与 11·3 的两场“稳定币事件”让 $USDe 与 $xUSD 相继陷入困境，而昨夜的 ListaDAO—MEV Capital—USDX 连锁事件，更像是在这道裂缝上重锤一击。\n\n这场风波不仅揭示了熊市里 DeFi 收益的幻觉，也让人看到，所谓“去中心化”的稳定币体系，正变得越来越像一个高杠杆、低透明的资金自循环机器。\n\n收益型稳定币的幻觉\n\n在危机爆发之前，收益型稳定币（YBS）被许多人视为 DeFi 的“低风险创新”：\n它承诺超额抵押、稳健收益、链上透明——听起来几乎完美。\n\n理论模型是这样的：抵押 1.1 美元资产，铸造 1 美元稳定币；将其投放到 DeFi 协议赚取利息；收益的一部分分给持币人，剩下的归项目方。\n然而，在高收益的压力下，这一结构被悄然扭曲——抵押比例被美化、资产类型被混合、杠杆被提前嵌入铸造环节。\n\n这正是 xUSD 事件中所暴露的逻辑：\nStream Finance 利用 Elixir 的 deUSD 撬动四倍杠杆，将杠杆环节前置至发行阶段，形成“铸造即杠杆”的结构。表面上是超额抵押，实际上却是风险浓缩。\n\n当 60% 的发行量掌握在发行方自己手里，所谓“清算机制”早已名存实亡。\n这类结构的风险在牛市中被收益掩盖，一旦市场下行，便会像积木般塌陷。\n\n主理人机制的幻觉\n\n过去一年，DeFi 借贷协议开始引入“主理人（Curator）”制度。\nMorpho、Euler 等项目让独立团队来管理金库、挑选资产，似乎能让风险更分散、更智能。\n可当 Stream 的 xUSD 被广泛接纳后，这种分散反而成为风险的扩散器——每一个金库都在复制相同的毒性资产，最终形成链式殉爆。\n\n讽刺的是，这种“精选市场”反而削弱了用户防御意识。\nAave 像京东自营，安全问题由平台兜底；Morpho 与 Euler 更像淘宝，把安全外包给卖家。\n散户在界面上看到的是“Curated Market”的光环，却未意识到——在出问题时，没人真正负责。\n\n⸻\n\n当 CEX 变透明，DeFi 变模糊\n\n这一轮熊市的最大讽刺是：CEX（中心化交易所）因监管变得越来越透明，而 DeFi 却重新走向灰色。\n协议间的合作不再依靠智能合约，而是依靠 Telegram 群里的返佣截图与“君子协定”。\n危机爆发时，人们看到的不是链上日志，而是一张张表情包式的对话记录。\n\nVitalik 一直呼吁建设“Low-Risk DeFi”，让以太坊成为可承载社会信任的金融基础设施。\n但现实是，收益的诱惑与杠杆的惯性正在让整个行业重蹈覆辙。\n在熊市中，“低风险”常常只是“高风险的最后阶段”。\n\n⸻\n\n昨夜：ListaDAO、MEV Capital 与 USDX 的临界点\n\n11 月 5 日深夜，市场再次上演了一场惊心动魄的链上剧。\nLista Lending 的 MEV USDT Vault 的 APY 一度飙升至 3570% ——当然，那是复利计算，实际年化约在 300% 左右，日化不到 1%。\n表面上看是“超高收益机会”，实际上则是风险的信号弹。\n\n凌晨时分，ListaDAO 官方移除了 30% 的借款利率上限。\n这一步极为关键，也是极为明智的。因为在 USDX 风险逐渐暴露的背景下，唯一的“逃生窗口”，就是通过 DEX 上残余的可清算流动性，尽快完成风险出清。\n⸻\n\nAdaptiveCurveIRM 的“高压曲线”\n\n在利率上限解除后，MEV Capital 的 AdaptiveCurveIRM（自适应利率曲线机制） 开始全面接管市场行为。\n这一机制的原理简单而高效：\n当借贷池使用率超过 90% 时，借款利率不再线性上升，而是进入倍数级别的加速区。\n如果仍无法将使用率压回 90%，曲线将整体上移，利率以指数级别继续飙升。\n\n这一机制最早在 FRAX 的 Curve 清算事件中发挥过作用——它不需要人工干预，只通过经济激励迫使借款人自发平仓，从而保护流动性池的健康。\nMEV Capital 这次同样选择了“放任”机制自动反应，没有过度干预。\n从风险控制角度看，这是合理的选择：\n更激进的利率曲线，反而是更稳健的风控工具。\n\n不过需要指出的是，MEV Capital 当前还背负着 Stream Finance 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高性能交易平台。对于部分人来说，可以先了解平台的功能和积分机制，等代币正式发行后，再关注发行细节和锁仓计划。\n你认为它会成为加密明星项目吗？\n\n本文仅供参考，不构成投资者建议，市场高风险，入市需谨慎。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,140],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/LQyjQ2bmMG","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988869722679701878/photo/1","id_str":"1988869707492171776","indices":[141,164],"media_key":"3_1988869707492171776","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5nidiObIAAUGRF.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/LQyjQ2bmMG","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":468,"w":1199,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":468,"w":1199,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":265,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":468,"width":1199,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":836,"h":468},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":468,"h":468},{"x":4,"y":0,"w":411,"h":468},{"x":92,"y":0,"w":234,"h":468},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1199,"h":468}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988869707492171776"}}},{"display_url":"pic.x.com/LQyjQ2bmMG","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988869722679701878/photo/1","id_str":"1988869612763860992","indices":[141,164],"media_key":"3_1988869612763860992","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5niYBVb0AAq1hK.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/LQyjQ2bmMG","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":600,"w":928,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":600,"w":928,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":440,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":600,"width":928,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":80,"w":928,"h":520},{"x":164,"y":0,"w":600,"h":600},{"x":201,"y":0,"w":526,"h":600},{"x":314,"y":0,"w":300,"h":600},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":928,"h":600}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988869612763860992"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/LQyjQ2bmMG","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988869722679701878/photo/1","id_str":"1988869707492171776","indices":[141,164],"media_key":"3_1988869707492171776","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5nidiObIAAUGRF.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/LQyjQ2bmMG","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":468,"w":1199,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":468,"w":1199,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":265,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":468,"width":1199,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":836,"h":468},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":468,"h":468},{"x":4,"y":0,"w":411,"h":468},{"x":92,"y":0,"w":234,"h":468},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1199,"h":468}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988869707492171776"}}},{"display_url":"pic.x.com/LQyjQ2bmMG","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988869722679701878/photo/1","id_str":"1988869612763860992","indices":[141,164],"media_key":"3_1988869612763860992","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5niYBVb0AAq1hK.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/LQyjQ2bmMG","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":600,"w":928,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":600,"w":928,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":440,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":600,"width":928,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":80,"w":928,"h":520},{"x":164,"y":0,"w":600,"h":600},{"x":201,"y":0,"w":526,"h":600},{"x":314,"y":0,"w":300,"h":600},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":928,"h":600}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988869612763860992"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988869722679701878","view_count":124,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763018467000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1624286098737483778","conversation_id_str":"1988869722679701878","full_text":"《恐惧重临：恐惧指数跌至14，币圈进入“极度寒意”时刻》\n\n最近市场的情绪，冷到有点刺骨。\n今天的加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数降至14，这意味着市场情绪正式进入「极度恐惧」区间。\n上一次跌到这个水平的，还是在去年大跌前后的那段“黑暗时刻”。那么问题来了——这一次的恐惧，到底意味着什么？\n\n什么是恐惧指数？\n\n恐惧与贪婪指数（Fear & Greed Index）是一个衡量市场情绪的指标，范围从 0 到 100。\n\n0-25 属于极度恐惧：投资者普遍悲观，市场处于情绪低谷。\n\n75-100 属于极度贪婪：投资者过于乐观，市场可能过热。\n\n当前的 14，是过去三个月来的最低值，说明资金情绪趋冷，恐慌蔓延，短期资金大规模撤离。\n\n市场为何突然降温？\n\n一是近期数据显示，24小时内全市场爆仓规模大幅上升（数亿美元量级），同时总未平仓头寸有所回落，说明资金在短时间内被强制平仓或主动撤出。衍生品市场去杠杆会迅速放大下跌：一部分被动爆仓造成价格进一步下探，触发更多自动清算，形成自放大下行。\n二是面对稳定币风险和高波动，做市商、套利基金会收缩盘口、撤回挂单或提高点差（尤其在 DeFi 与小众 DEX 上更明显），导致买盘稀疏、卖压更容易把价格推低——这在链上订单簿深度与 DEX 交易量中都有体现。新闻对“流动性收缩”和部分交易所/协议监测到的异常流动性问题已有报道。\n三是近期关于 ETF 批准窗口、监管机关动作（及市场对其可能介入/限制的担忧）使得机构资金变得谨慎。特别是 ETF/监管节奏有不确定性时，机构会倾向于减仓以等待规则明朗，进而减少买方支撑。相关讨论在近期关于 ETF 批准与监管节奏的报道中频繁出现。\n\n冰点中孕育机会\n\n短期看，恐惧情绪带来的是抛压和观望：\n新项目难获关注；\n主流币交投量下降；\n机构与散户同步避险。\n\n但长期看，极度恐惧往往孕育底部信号。\n历史上每一次指数跌破20，都对应了中长期的布局窗口，比如：2022年FTX暴雷时，恐惧指数在12附近，BTC后续从15,000美元反弹至30,000美元；\n2023年黑天鹅期间跌到10，结果半年后BTC翻倍。\n所以，「恐惧」有时候反而是聪明资金的“进场信号灯”。\n\n对比历史：每一次“极度恐惧”之后，市场都发生了什么？\n2020年3月，疫情暴跌时恐惧指数跌到8，BTC在5000美元附近。三个月后，价格翻倍。\n\n2022年11月，FTX崩盘时恐惧指数跌到12，BTC在1.5万美元。四个月后涨到3万美元。\n\n2023年8月，加息周期末期恐惧指数17，BTC在2.5万美元。三个月后反弹至4.2万美元。\n\n现在，2025年11月，恐惧指数14，BTC在5.8万美元。拐点是否又在酝酿？\n\n历史告诉我们：\n 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INX TGE前瞻：Patron NFT持有者获赠10万枚代币，跨链DeFi生态再升级》\n\n哈世链闻消息，跨链聚合 #DeFi平台 #Infinex 宣布即将启动 #INX代币 生成事件（TGE），#PatronNFT 持有者将按 1:100,000 比例空投 10 万枚 #INX，同时平台通过 #Sonar 销售和 #Craterun 活动进一步分发代币。\n本文将围绕 #INX 项目基础信息、治理机制、竞品对比及风险等进行通俗解读。\n\n项目基础信息\n\n项目简介\n#Infinex 是一个定位“超级 #crypto 应用”的平台，旨在将 #跨链聚合、#去中心化交易、#钱包管理、#桥接（bridge）、#交易终端、钱包扩展等功能整合到一个产品里，由 Kain Warwick（曾为 Synthetix 联合创始人）领导。 \n其主张：借助多条链、抽象 gas、极简用户体验，让用户能够像用集中式交易所（CEX）那样方便，又同时保有去中心化、自主控制钱包资产的体验。 \n\nINX 代币基本参数\n\n代币名称：#INX（也称 #INX代币）\n\n总供应量（或上限）：根据 Infinex 官方披露，流传关于 “10 b（10 0 亿）枚” 的数字，即 100 亿枚。\n空投/分发机制：Infinex 表示其 TGE（代币生成事件）将来：“100 % 的供应分配给 Patrons（Patron NFT 持有者）”这一说法。 \n具体为：总共有 100,000 个 Patron NFT，每一个将获得 100,000 枚 INX。 \n同时 uPatron 持有者（微型版本 NFT）将按 1:10 的比例获得 INX。 \n团队持有份额：官方披露团队份额占总量约 20%。\n团队代币将锁定 12 个月，然后再线性释放 12 个月。\n\n初始发行时间 / TGE 时间：尚无公开精确日期，仅知 “TGE 即将到来” 的声明发布于 2025 年11月。 \n初始发行价：官方披露并未给出一个明确的公开发行价数字，而在其 “Craterun 奖励”文中提到“基于 Patron NFT 价格，隐含 INX 价格约 5 美分（$0.05）” 的印象。 \n上线平台 / 支持链：Infinex 表示其将在 TGE 第一日支持三条新链：Monad、MegaEth、Fogo。 \n\n代币用途：\n\n持有 Patron NFT 可获 INX；\nINX 被用于平台激励分发、用户活动奖励；\n根据 Infinex 的叙述，INX 还用于捕获平台收入（例如通过平台产生的手续费或利润回购代币）以支持代币价值。\n\n是否有销毁机制 / 铸币增发机制 / 动态调节供应：\n官方披露中 没有明确提到销毁机制（burn）。\n关于是否增发或动态调节供应，目前披露为 “总供应量固定100 亿枚” 的表述，暂未见公开说明后续增发。\n也未明确提到减半、回购销毁等机制。\n\n流通量 / 初始流通盘比例 / FDV：\n因尚未 TGE，上线前流通量数据尚不可见。官方称分配给 Patron NFT，即 100 000 个 NFT × 100 000 枚 = 10 亿枚分配给 Patrons，其余供应（如 90 亿枚）可能由 Treasury／激励池／团队持有。\n\n核心亮点：\n多链支持 + 跨链抽象 gas 体验：Infinex 强调支持新链、桥接、无痛转移资产。\n公平分发机制：利用 NFT + Craterun 等活动让更多用户进入分发机制，而非传统 VC 私募。\n团队承诺锁仓机制：团队持币锁定 12 个月＋12 个月线性释放，体现一定长期绑定意愿。\n平台设计定位：尝试将去中心化钱包/交易体验与 CEX 体验融合，降低用户进入门槛。\n\n是否存在砸盘风险 / 价格稳定机制：\n由于尚未大规模流通，早期代币持有者（如 Patron NFT 持有者）若解锁即卖出，存在较大抛售压力。\n官方提及将用“平台收入回购代币”机制（Revenue → Buy‑Back）来支撑代币。\n但未见完整披露明确的价格稳定机制（例如锁仓期、回购比例、销毁机制）细节。\n\n合规风险：\n虽然项目在宣传中强调支持多链、新链、抽象 gas，但目前尚无明确披露其合规机制（如是否在特定地区注册）且新链支持本身带来技术与法律风险。\n如果代币被认定为证券或金融产品，可能受限当地法律监管。\n\n解锁风险：\n团队锁仓虽有明确机制，但早期持有者（如 Patron NFT 持有者）解锁期安排是否透明、是否有提前售卖风险仍需观察。\n倘若大量 Patron NFT 持有者在解锁后同步抛售，可能对价格造成下行压力。\n\nInfinex 的 INX 项目目前处于“预发行／TGE前”阶段，核心亮点聚焦于跨链 UX、用户分发及社区机制。但由于尚未完全上线披露，很多关键参数仍处于预设状态。\n\n治理机制\nPatron NFT 持有者：Infinex 表示该 NFT 持有者是获取 INX 的主要方式之一。 \n治理模型：根据 OakResearch 整理，Patron NFT 持有者将通过选举方式选出一个“委员会（council）”，由该委员会代表持有者执行治理决策（如选择资产、协议功能、技术路线）而非每一次都让全体持有者直接 vote。 \n决策方向包括：资产上线、功能实现、协议方向等。Patron NFT 作为治理身份凭证。\n代币治理权：目前尚无公开资料显示 INX 代币本身是否赋予投票权、权益参与等；主要治理权似乎与Patron NFT 关联。\n治理激励机制：平台通过 Crate Run、活动获取用户参与权，并通过这些方式扩大社区参与度。\n \n整体来看，治理机制试图结合 NFT + 代币分发＋用户参与，但具体运作细节（如委员会选举机制、代币持有者权利、提案机制、否决机制）尚未完全公开，仍需进一步观察。\n\n竞品对比\n为了更好理解 Infinex 所处的位置，我们选取两类竞品进行对比：跨链聚合／交易体验型项目，以及传统交易所代币／平台代币。\n竞品 A：跨链聚合／交易体验型\n\n1inch Network／其代币 1INCH：作为跨链聚合器＋ DEX 路由器，用户可通过代币参与治理、手续费返还等。\nParaswap 等同类聚合器。\n对比 Infinex 的优势与劣势：\n优势：Infinex 着重将“钱包”、“交易终端”、“桥接聚合”融合，并强调用户体验（UX）与多链支持，目标不仅仅是一个路由器。\n劣势：1inch 等已有成熟生态、用户基础、路由量，Infinex 为新项目，尚需证明其技术落地、用户增长及聚合效果。\n竞品 B：平台代币/交易所代币\nBNB (Binance 币)：用于交易所手续费折扣、生态建设、回购销毁。\n\nInfinex 的 INX 更偏项目生态代币＋社区分发机制，而不是传统交易所代币。其亮点在于“公平分发＋NFT ＋平台收入回购”。但传统交易所代币通常有成熟市场、流动性、较高认知度，Infinex 需努力建立信任与生态。\n\nInfinex 在“用户体验＋跨链＋公平分发”三大方向有亮点，若能成功落地，与上述竞品相比有差异化优势。但挑战也显著——生态是否能快速获取用户、技术是否稳定、代币分发机制是否公平、市场能否接受其新模式等。\n\n风险提示\n在考虑投资或参与该项目之前，需重点关注以下风险：\n流动性与抛售风险\n早期 NFT 持有者获得较大份额（每个 Patron NFT 可获 100,000 枚 INX），若解锁后集中出售，可能对价格造成冲击。\n虽团队锁仓机制明确，但其它持有者锁仓情况尚未披露。\n\n代币模型未完全落实风险\n虽然宣称“平台收入回购代币”作为价值支撑，但未见完整公开回购机制、回购比例、销毁计划等。\n若代币仅作奖励分发而无明确增值机制，可能导致价值承诺难以兑现。\n合规／监管风险\n项目跨链、全球化、涉及 NFT + 代币分发，可能受到各国证券法、税务法、KYC/AML 问题影响。\n若代币被认定为证券，可能被监管机构约束。\n生态执行风险\nInfinex 的愿景较大（多链支持、抽象 gas、钱包+终端一体化），但技术实现、用户获取、市场竞争均为挑战。若用户增长未达预期，代币价值支撑将受影响。\n竞品众多，用户迁移成本高。若体验不如预期，可能难以突破。\n解锁时间表透明度风险\n团队锁仓期明确，但 NFT 持有者、激励池、早期投资者解锁条款不一定完全透明。解锁后的大规模抛售可能带来负面冲击。\n价格波动与市场风险\n新代币上线初期，市场对其认知、流动性、支持者信心尚在建设中，价格极易波动。投资者需承受较高波动风险。\n\n请注意：本文仅为信息整理与分析，不构成任何投资建议。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,151],"entities":{"hashtags":[{"indices":[36,43],"text":"史上最长停摆"},{"indices":[36,43],"text":"史上最长停摆"},{"indices":[253,257],"text":"比特币"},{"indices":[260,264],"text":"山寨币"},{"indices":[575,581],"text":"美联储政策"},{"indices":[800,804],"text":"BTC"},{"indices":[861,865],"text":"BTC"},{"indices":[866,870],"text":"ETH"},{"indices":[875,879],"text":"山寨币"},{"indices":[912,916],"text":"ETF"}],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E7AteEIPsI","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988906513730044122/photo/1","id_str":"1988906495644450816","indices":[152,175],"media_key":"3_1988906495644450816","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5oD64xawAAXJM3.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E7AteEIPsI","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":749,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":749,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":424,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":749,"width":1200,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":77,"w":1200,"h":672},{"x":135,"y":0,"w":749,"h":749},{"x":181,"y":0,"w":657,"h":749},{"x":322,"y":0,"w":375,"h":749},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1200,"h":749}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988906495644450816"}}},{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E7AteEIPsI","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988906513730044122/photo/1","id_str":"1988906495644430337","indices":[152,175],"media_key":"3_1988906495644430337","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5oD64xacAE6Zr8.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E7AteEIPsI","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1200,"w":848,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":1200,"w":848,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":680,"w":481,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":1200,"width":848,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":153,"w":848,"h":475},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":848},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":967},{"x":248,"y":0,"w":600,"h":1200},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":1200}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988906495644430337"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E7AteEIPsI","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988906513730044122/photo/1","id_str":"1988906495644450816","indices":[152,175],"media_key":"3_1988906495644450816","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5oD64xawAAXJM3.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E7AteEIPsI","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":749,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":749,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":424,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":749,"width":1200,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":77,"w":1200,"h":672},{"x":135,"y":0,"w":749,"h":749},{"x":181,"y":0,"w":657,"h":749},{"x":322,"y":0,"w":375,"h":749},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1200,"h":749}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988906495644450816"}}},{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E7AteEIPsI","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988906513730044122/photo/1","id_str":"1988906495644430337","indices":[152,175],"media_key":"3_1988906495644430337","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5oD64xacAE6Zr8.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E7AteEIPsI","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1200,"w":848,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":1200,"w":848,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":680,"w":481,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":1200,"width":848,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":153,"w":848,"h":475},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":848},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":967},{"x":248,"y":0,"w":600,"h":1200},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":1200}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988906495644430337"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988906513730044122","view_count":31,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763027239000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1624286098737483778","conversati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40 天的“#史上最长停摆”，美国政府终于确认可以恢复运作。这意味着财政部 TGA（Treasury General Account，总账户）终于可以“开闸”，释放过去几周被锁在账户中的巨额资金——大约 1 万亿美元的流动性即将重新回到市场。\n\n停摆期间，由于政府无法按计划支出，TGA 从约 3000 亿美元猛增至超过 1 万亿美元，相当于短短 40 天里把超过 7000 亿美元从市场中抽走，造成了结构性的“美元荒”。这一流动性紧缩，是导致 #比特币 和 #山寨币 在 11 月初非但守不住 10 万美元，甚至跌破 9.9 万美元的关键因素。\n值得注意的是：为什么说政府开门后，市场大概率是先跌后涨呢？原因在于两个因素的错位叠加：\n\n一个是数据黑洞引发短期恐慌，停摆导致劳工统计局（BLS）和其他关键数据部门瘫痪。9 月就业数据是“拼凑”，10 月 CPI、PPI、PCE 等通胀数据甚至可能缺失。美联储主席鲍威尔一向强调“数据驱动”（Data-Dependent），但现在“无数据可依”，导致市场无法判断未来货币政策走向。\n\n这种不确定性让华尔街交易员倾向于抛售高风险资产，市场短期出现回调，哪怕政府刚开门、流动性即将释放。\n10 月 31 日，隔夜拆借利率飙升至 4.22%，高于 #美联储政策 上限 4%，银行纷纷冲向美联储紧急窗口，总额达 503.5 亿美元，显示市场“缺钱”的恐慌真实存在。\n\n二是流动性释放尚未完全入市，虽然 TGA 1 万亿美元即将释放，但市场的“蓄水池”——RRP（逆回购工具）余额已降至不足 800 亿美元，无法吸收所有流动性。这意味着资金短期内需要寻找合适的风险资产配置，这个过程存在错配和短期震荡，导致市场先跌后涨。\n\n对于加密市场而言，政府开门带来的先跌后涨格局，有几个直接影响：\n短期波动加大：#BTC 可能会在 10万美元附近经历震荡。\n长期流动性利好：TGA 的释放会直接流入银行准备金，推动风险资产配置，包括 #BTC、#ETH 和主要 #山寨币。\nETF 和合规资金加速入场：SEC 复工后，将批准更多山寨币 #ETF，为市场注入合法资金，山寨币也会有利好。\n\n类似情况曾在历史上出现过：\n\n2013 年美国政府部分停摆：停摆结束前比特币短线下跌约 15%，停摆结束后一周内快速反弹 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Gate首发上线Play Solana现货交易\n\n哈世链闻消息，Gate将于2025年11月14日22:00（UTC+8）首发上线Play Solana (PLAYSOLANA)现货交易。\n\n$PLAYSOLANA #GateExchange #Cryptocurrency #Blockchain #Solana #CryptoTrading","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,182],"entities":{"hashtags":[{"indices":[275,290],"text":"Cryptocurrency"},{"indices":[291,302],"text":"Blockchain"},{"indices":[303,312],"text":"Coinbase"},{"indices":[313,321],"text":"Binance"}],"symbols":[{"indices":[264,269],"text":"BANK"},{"indices":[270,274],"text":"MET"}],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988973526364364911","view_count":21,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763043216000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1624286098737483778","conversation_id_str":"1988973526364364911","full_text":"币安交易所实时公告： 币安上线Lorenzo Protocol (BANK)和Meteora (MET)\n\n哈世链闻消息，币安推出Lorenzo Protocol (BANK)和Meteora (MET)，计划于2025年11月13日22:00上线。届时用户可通过币安理财、闪兑和一键买币等平台购买这些加密货币。用户可以使用信用卡、Google Pay、Apple Pay等方式购买，并在现货上线后一小时内开始交易。此外，这些代币可在币安的全仓、逐仓杠杆中进行支持。币安提醒用户新上币种可能波动较大，建议交易时注意风险管理。\n\n$BANK $MET #Cryptocurrency #Blockchain #Coinbase 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Internet Group 是一家金融科技（FinTech）公司，致力于打造“互联网金融基础设施”。其核心目标是将区块链、稳定币、数字资产基础设施与传统金融系统连接起来。\n\n主营业务\n主要可拆分为以下几类：\n稳定币发行与流通：公司是知名稳定币 USD Coin（USDC）的主要发行方之一，其发行、赎回、管理及流通规模是其核心资产。\n准备金／利息收入：USDC 背后的准备金（通常为现金或短期国债等低风险资产）为公司带来利息或回报。\n平台与开发者服务：公司提供 API、钱包／铸币／赎币服务，帮助开发者、金融机构、支付公司将稳定币或数字资产集成进其业务。\n区块链基础设施扩张：公司推出的 Arc Network（Layer-1 区块链）测试网、“Circle Payments Network”（CPN）支付网络等，意在构建生态平台，未来可能推出原生代币。\n\n市场与竞争环境\n市场需求：随着区块链应用（如 DeFi、链上支付、跨境结算）扩展，稳定币作为桥梁资产与链上工具地位加强。\n竞争与风险：USDC 虽具规模，但仍面临如 Tether USD（USDT）等先行者竞争；此外，监管、利率、信任机制、流通安全等均为潜在挑战。\n\n模式亮点\n网络效应：USDC 流通规模越大、链上应用越广，公司越能从中获益。\n成本／规模杠杆：稳定币规模扩大后，稀释了单位成本，提升盈利。\n长期愿景为 “互联网经济 OS”：公司管理层提出，其不仅是稳定币发行方，更定位为构建下一代互联网金融操作系统。\n\n最新业绩 &成长动能\n\nQ3 2025 财报关键数据\n根据公司披露：\nUSDC 流通规模约 737 亿美元，年增长约 108%。 \n本季度“总收入 + 储备收入”约 7.40 亿美元，同比增长约 66%。\n 净利润约 2.14 亿美元，同比增长约 202%。\n调整后 EBITDA 约 1.66 亿美元，同比增长约 78%。 \n公司宣布其 Arc 公测网已吸引 100 + 家金融或科技公司参与；正在探索推出 Arc 原生代币。 \n公司更新全年“Other Revenue”（即非储备相关收入）预期至 9000–10000 万美元。 \n\n解读：成长驱动力\n流通规模翻倍以上，说明其稳定币产品在市场上的渗透及采用显著加速。\n收入及盈利大幅增长，表明不仅规模扩大，且盈利能力初步显现。\n业务结构开始从单纯“准备金利息”向“生态／平台服务”扩展（“Other Revenue”增长、Arc／CPN 等战略项目推进）。\n虽市场反应谨慎（如因利率下降可能影响利息收益）但从经营数据看，公司成长性明显。\n\n行业地位与竞争比较\n在稳定币发行市场，USDC 是主要资产之一，且其流通规模和链上交易量都在迅速扩张。\n\n公司通过扩展支付网络、区块链生态、代币化资产服务，试图从“一张稳定币”扩展到“一个平台生态”。\n相比仅发行稳定币的机构，Circle 的优势在于构建更广泛的基础设施，但同时也承担更高成长型投资与平台构建风险。\n行业风险包括监管（如稳定币定义、合规要求）、利率环境（影响准备金收益）、技术／信任风险（储备透明度、用户信心）等。\n\n估值数据\n\n根据 StockAnalysis，当前市值约 USD 20.7 B，企业价值（EV）约 USD 21.55 B。\n主要估值比率（截至最近）：\nP/S（市销率）约 4.61 倍。 \nEV/Revenue ≈ 15.10 倍。 \nP/B（市净率）约 13.69 倍。 \n根据 SimplyWallSt：P/S 约 10.7 倍（不同数据源略有差别）且指出其较同业偏高。\n \n估值分析\n\n为便于理解，构建两个基本估值情景：保守与乐观。\n\n保守情景\n假设未来 2-3 年内，USDC 流通规模继续增长，但增长速度放缓，营收增长逐渐稳定。\n假设营收从本季度 ~0.74 亿美元 ×4（全年化约 3 亿美元）增长至 ~20 亿美元。\n假设给予 P/S 市销率约 6-8 倍。\n理论市值约 20 亿 × 6 ≈ 120 亿 美元至 20 亿 × 8 ≈ 160 亿 美元。\n若股本未变，对应每股目标价应依据当前流通股数折算。\n\n乐观情景\n假设公司生态结构成功建立，USDC 流通规模及平台服务迅猛扩张，营收增长至如 50-100 亿美元水平。\n假设给予更高 P/S 倍数，例如 10-12 倍。\n若营收达 50 亿美元 ×10 = 500 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They value open communication, the blending of traditional and decentralized finance, and that trust grows through active engagement and shared experiences.","facts":"Fun fact: Despite tweeting over 26,500 times, Loper’s greatest pride is their tireless role as the ‘Post Man’ delivering news, updates, and warm greetings within their communities, turning simple interactions into lasting bonds.","strength":"Exceptional at nurturing community engagement and maintaining active dialogue across multiple projects, they make complex tech accessible and invite participation. Their enthusiasm is infectious, creating loyal followers who feel personally connected.","weakness":"Sometimes their high volume of posts and bubbling energy can overwhelm quieter followers, risking message dilution or fatigue. Balancing breadth of engagement with depth might help avoid spreading themselves too thin.","roast":"For someone with 26,591 tweets, you’ve single-handedly kept Twitter’s ‘tweet count’ metric from going extinct — at this rate, even spambots are asking you for tips on engagement. Maybe slow down before your keyboard files a restraining order?","win":"Successfully galvanized interest and participation for the River community’s first-ever Hangang meetup, sparking excitement and strengthening on-chain and off-chain ties with $RiverPts fans.","recommendation":"Harness your natural Connector vibe by using Twitter Spaces or regular Twitter Threads to host thematic deep-dives, spotlight key community voices, and foster real-time discussions. It’ll amplify your impact and convert passive watchers into active participants."},"created":1763275726351,"type":"the connector","id":"leveb_devel"},{"user":{"id":"207704957","name":"Krishawna","description":"curious girl in web3 😌 chasing airdrops, not boys 💸 bridge • swap • slay ✨","followers_count":1094,"friends_count":2062,"statuses_count":3117,"profile_image_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1987118770020655104/EvGW6WPq_normal.jpg","screen_name":"Tkris2699","location":"","entities":{"description":{"urls":[]}}},"details":{"type":"The Connector","description":"Krishawna is a curious and ambitious web3 enthusiast, zealously chasing airdrops and mastering blockchain tools like bridges and swaps. With a high tweet count and focused crypto content, she fuels the community with valuable updates and retweets from key players in the space. 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Their love of tradition and cultural heritage pairs with a modern, open mindset—welcoming diverse opinions but firmly holding to their own values.","facts":"Left foot curves, right foot on the gas—this user has tweeted over 100,000 times, proving that ‘lying flat’ is their unofficial national sport, despite their lively online activity!","strength":"Exceptional consistency and engagement, coupled with a witty, approachable personality that resonates across a broad audience. Their ability to weave humor, culture, and personal anecdotes keeps their community active and invested.","weakness":"The sheer volume of tweets can sometimes dilute individual impact, and their self-admitted laid-back approach borders on complacency, which might hinder deeper focus needed to level up beyond their niche.","roast":"With a tweet count higher than most people's yearly heartbeats, you’ve basically turned procrastination into an art form. 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Highlight personal stories alongside tech updates to build relatability and grow a loyal audience that values their unique voice.","roast":"With 42,000 tweets, Sarang’s timeline looks like a never-ending chatroom where even their coffee breaks get a broadcast — if tweeting was an Olympic sport, they’d have more gold than the blockchain has blocks.","win":"Successfully built a dynamic, interactive presence in the blockchain and Web3 community recognized for engaging conversations, trusted recommendations, and spreading awareness of privacy-focused projects."},"created":1763265504173,"type":"the connector","id":"sarang3372"},{"user":{"id":"1787430373430882304","name":"OBA","description":"A Quant |On-chain enjoyoor|KOL manager|","followers_count":10469,"friends_count":7457,"statuses_count":269286,"profile_image_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1988168528780791808/aAE-ZAvw_normal.jpg","screen_name":"OBAxbt","location":"DM for Collabs👉","entities":{"description":{"urls":[]},"url":{"urls":[{"display_url":"t.me/OBAxbt","expanded_url":"http://t.me/OBAxbt","url":"https://t.co/UJDL3Oi50q","indices":[0,23]}]}}},"details":{"type":"The Connector","description":"OBA is a relentless morning cheerleader and community builder who thrives on engaging with their audience daily. Their tweets are a ritualistic call to action, uniting their fans with positive vibes and a shared sense of camaraderie. As a Quant and KOL manager, they blend data-driven insights with genuine human connection.","purpose":"To create an inclusive and motivating digital tribe where followers feel energized and inspired each day. OBA’s life purpose revolves around forging connections, fostering community spirit, and managing influence with authenticity and enthusiasm.","beliefs":"OBA believes in the power of togetherness, encouragement, and consistent communication. They value daily engagement as a means of strengthening bonds and believe that positivity, even in small doses like a morning greeting, can catalyze success and collective growth.","facts":"OBA tweets over 269,000 times — that’s like sending a good morning message every few minutes for years straight!","strength":"Their biggest strength lies in unwavering consistency and the ability to make followers feel part of a close-knit community. They master the art of engagement through approachable and warm messaging that sparks daily interactions.","weakness":"The overuse of repetitive greetings might cause some follower fatigue and reduce the perceived depth or uniqueness of their content. High volume with little topic variation can sometimes lead to followers tuning out.","roast":"OBA's idea of breaking the ice is basically a never-ending, caffeinated 'Good morning' party where everyone’s obligated to RSVP — and somehow, no one ever leaves.","win":"Successfully grown a dedicated and interactive community known as ‘Trench warriors,’ who eagerly engage with OBA’s daily rituals of motivation and connection.","recommendation":"To grow their audience on X, OBA should mix their morning greetings with deeper insights or exclusive content related to Quant and on-chain trends. Incorporating occasional polls, AMAs, or themed threads can boost engagement beyond the ritual and showcase their expertise."},"created":1763264949735,"type":"the connector","id":"obaxbt"},{"user":{"id":"1837339433143558144","name":"lorde.base.eth","description":"$3 in assets, $0 in worries… might flip it to $4 soon","followers_count":278,"friends_count":257,"statuses_count":1618,"profile_image_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1983105642316365824/qeg-WfOu_normal.jpg","screen_name":"0xlorde","location":"","entities":{"description":{"urls":[]},"url":{"urls":[{"display_url":"t.me/lorde266","expanded_url":"http://t.me/lorde266","url":"https://t.co/V8yBgq6dHI","indices":[0,23]}]}}},"details":{"type":"The Connector","description":"Lorde.base.eth is a lively network builder, showing up daily to engage deeply with their X community and foster meaningful conversations. 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| 深度】\n本周二（10月28日），Bitwise的Solana质押ETF (BSOL)、Canary的莱特币ETF (LTCN) 和HBAR ETF (HBAR) 将通过特殊的 “8-A文件” 形式，直接登陆纽交所和纳斯达克！\n这意味着它们 绕过了常规、漫长的SEC审批流程，实现了快速上市。这不仅是加密资产主流化的关键跃迁，更可能是一种全新的“上市范式”。 \n\n1、 什么是ETF？它为何如此重要？\n首先，让我们回归基础。ETF（Exchange-Traded Fund）即“交易所交易基金”。你可以把它想象成一个“资产篮子”，里面装着股票、债券或像黄金、比特币这样的商品。这个“篮子”本身又像股票一样，可以在证券交易所自由买卖。\n对普通投资者而言，ETF的最大优势是 “简单” 和 “合规”。\n简单：无需学习如何使用加密钱包、管理私钥，只需通过传统的股票账户就能投资加密资产。\n合规：ETF受到严格的金融监管，为机构和保守型投资者提供了安全、合规的入场通道。 \n\n2、 加密货币与ETF的结缘之路\n加密世界与ETF的首次“联姻”始于 比特币。经过长达十年的申请与等待，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）终于在 2024年1月 批准了首批比特币现货ETF。 这一事件被视为币圈的“诺曼底登陆”，它为市场带来了数百亿美元的机构资金，并直接推动了比特币价格创下历史新高。\n随后，以太坊现货ETF 也在 2025年5月 获批，进一步巩固了加密资产作为主流投资品的地位。 可以说，每一次主流币种的ETF获批，都是一次将加密市场与传统金融世界深度绑定的过程。 \n\n3、揭秘“8-A文件”：本次上市的秘密通道\n那么，为什么这次的ETF能如此之快？关键在于它们利用了 “证券法第12(b)条的8-A注册文件”。\n这是一种特殊的注册形式，通常用于将已在场外市场（OTC）交易的证券转换为主板上市公司。它允许发行方 绕过标准的S-1文件审批流程，后者正是比特币ETF耗费了数年时间才走完的漫长程序。\n这本质上是利用了现有法规的一个“巧妙后门”，是华尔街在加密领域的又一次规则创新。\n\n4、本次“闪电上市”，意味着什么？\n如果说BTC/ETH的ETF是打开了传统资金进入加密世界的大门，那么这次SOL、LTC等ETF的“闪电上市”，则 打开了通往更广阔加密生态的“高速公路”。\n资产类别的承认：这标志着监管和传统金融界不再将比特币视为唯一的“合格”加密资产。Solana这类高性能公链、莱特币这类老牌加密货币的价值得到了进一步认可。\n生态系统的繁荣：从10月28日开始，ETF将直接为Solana、Hedera等公链生态系统注入新的流动性和关注度，推动其链上应用（DeFi, NFT）的发展。\n上市范式的变革：这可能为后续其他“山寨币”ETF提供了一条全新的、更高效的上市路径，大大缩短了等待时间。 \n\n5、未来影响：我们正处在哪个阶段？\n我们正处在 “加密资产ETF化” 的加速阶段。本次事件预示着一个清晰的未来趋势：\n更多“山寨币”ETF将涌现：瑞波币（XRP）、卡尔达诺（ADA）等拥有场外信托产品的币种，很可能效仿这一路径，寻求快速上市。\n投资组合多样化：投资者将能像配置不同行业的股票一样，轻松地在投资组合中配置不同的加密资产，以分散风险。\n市场成熟度提升：随着监管框架的完善和更多合规产品的出现，加密市场的波动性可能逐渐降低，市场行为将更加理性。\n\n6、总结：一个新时代的序幕\n从比特币的十年长跑到如今Solana的“闪电”登陆，ETF正在以超乎预期的速度重塑加密货币的投资版图。\n10月28日，将作为“山寨币”ETF时代开启的日子被载入史册。它不仅是资金的入口，更是加密资产获得全球金融体系认可的“通行证”，而“8-A文件”则成为了这张通行证的“快速通道”。\n作为市场的见证者，我们正在亲历历史。\n\n#加密货币 #ETF #Solana #Crypto #美股 #区块链 #Web3 #sol #Hedera #LTC #Altcoin #SEC","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,32],"entities":{"hashtags":[{"indices":[328,343],"text":"Cryptocurrency"},{"indices":[344,355],"text":"Blockchain"},{"indices":[356,360],"text":"BTC"}],"symbols":[{"indices":[312,316],"text":"BTC"},{"indices":[317,321],"text":"PRE"},{"indices":[322,327],"text":"EXOD"}],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982998397780144186","view_count":13,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761618635000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1624286098737483778","conversation_id_str":"1982998397780144186","full_text":"贝克汉姆支持的Prenetics筹集4800万美元促进比特币储备\n\n哈世链闻消息，由大卫·贝克汉姆投资的健康科学公司Prenetics（PRE）通过一轮超额认购的股权融资筹集4800万美元，资金将用于拓展其健康品牌IM8，并推进比特币储备策略。公司公告称，通过行使认股权证，总融资额可能达到2.16亿美元。该轮融资吸引了Kraken、Exodus（EXOD）、GPTX和American Ventures等投资者。首席执行官Danny Yeung表示，这些资金将帮助IM8实现全球扩张，同时每日积累1枚比特币，以期在五年内实现收入和比特币持有量均达10亿美元的目标。目前，公司拥有268.4枚比特币，价值3090万美元。\n\n$BTC $PRE $EXOD #Cryptocurrency #Blockchain 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| 深度】\n本周二（10月28日），Bitwise的Solana质押ETF (BSOL)、Canary的莱特币ETF (LTCN) 和HBAR ETF (HBAR) 将通过特殊的 “8-A文件” 形式，直接登陆纽交所和纳斯达克！\n这意味着它们 绕过了常规、漫长的SEC审批流程，实现了快速上市。这不仅是加密资产主流化的关键跃迁，更可能是一种全新的“上市范式”。 \n\n1、 什么是ETF？它为何如此重要？\n首先，让我们回归基础。ETF（Exchange-Traded Fund）即“交易所交易基金”。你可以把它想象成一个“资产篮子”，里面装着股票、债券或像黄金、比特币这样的商品。这个“篮子”本身又像股票一样，可以在证券交易所自由买卖。\n对普通投资者而言，ETF的最大优势是 “简单” 和 “合规”。\n简单：无需学习如何使用加密钱包、管理私钥，只需通过传统的股票账户就能投资加密资产。\n合规：ETF受到严格的金融监管，为机构和保守型投资者提供了安全、合规的入场通道。 \n\n2、 加密货币与ETF的结缘之路\n加密世界与ETF的首次“联姻”始于 比特币。经过长达十年的申请与等待，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）终于在 2024年1月 批准了首批比特币现货ETF。 这一事件被视为币圈的“诺曼底登陆”，它为市场带来了数百亿美元的机构资金，并直接推动了比特币价格创下历史新高。\n随后，以太坊现货ETF 也在 2025年5月 获批，进一步巩固了加密资产作为主流投资品的地位。 可以说，每一次主流币种的ETF获批，都是一次将加密市场与传统金融世界深度绑定的过程。 \n\n3、揭秘“8-A文件”：本次上市的秘密通道\n那么，为什么这次的ETF能如此之快？关键在于它们利用了 “证券法第12(b)条的8-A注册文件”。\n这是一种特殊的注册形式，通常用于将已在场外市场（OTC）交易的证券转换为主板上市公司。它允许发行方 绕过标准的S-1文件审批流程，后者正是比特币ETF耗费了数年时间才走完的漫长程序。\n这本质上是利用了现有法规的一个“巧妙后门”，是华尔街在加密领域的又一次规则创新。\n\n4、本次“闪电上市”，意味着什么？\n如果说BTC/ETH的ETF是打开了传统资金进入加密世界的大门，那么这次SOL、LTC等ETF的“闪电上市”，则 打开了通往更广阔加密生态的“高速公路”。\n资产类别的承认：这标志着监管和传统金融界不再将比特币视为唯一的“合格”加密资产。Solana这类高性能公链、莱特币这类老牌加密货币的价值得到了进一步认可。\n生态系统的繁荣：从10月28日开始，ETF将直接为Solana、Hedera等公链生态系统注入新的流动性和关注度，推动其链上应用（DeFi, NFT）的发展。\n上市范式的变革：这可能为后续其他“山寨币”ETF提供了一条全新的、更高效的上市路径，大大缩短了等待时间。 \n\n5、未来影响：我们正处在哪个阶段？\n我们正处在 “加密资产ETF化” 的加速阶段。本次事件预示着一个清晰的未来趋势：\n更多“山寨币”ETF将涌现：瑞波币（XRP）、卡尔达诺（ADA）等拥有场外信托产品的币种，很可能效仿这一路径，寻求快速上市。\n投资组合多样化：投资者将能像配置不同行业的股票一样，轻松地在投资组合中配置不同的加密资产，以分散风险。\n市场成熟度提升：随着监管框架的完善和更多合规产品的出现，加密市场的波动性可能逐渐降低，市场行为将更加理性。\n\n6、总结：一个新时代的序幕\n从比特币的十年长跑到如今Solana的“闪电”登陆，ETF正在以超乎预期的速度重塑加密货币的投资版图。\n10月28日，将作为“山寨币”ETF时代开启的日子被载入史册。它不仅是资金的入口，更是加密资产获得全球金融体系认可的“通行证”，而“8-A文件”则成为了这张通行证的“快速通道”。\n作为市场的见证者，我们正在亲历历史。\n\n#加密货币 #ETF #Solana #Crypto #美股 #区块链 #Web3 #sol #Hedera #LTC 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不等，为投资者提供心理预期参考，但不应视为保证。\n\n3、比特币生态的变化\n\n近年来，比特币生态呈现“链上百花齐放”的特征。虽然以太坊和 Solana 的 DeFi、NFT 生态发展更活跃，但比特币正在悄然升级基础设施。闪电网络扩展通道数量已突破 5 万条，总容量达到 2,200 BTC，这意味着比特币在小额支付和跨链价值传输方面的能力正稳步提升。同时，多家主要交易所和支付平台已支持闪电网络支付，提升了链上实际应用价值。\n\n长期持币地址稳步增加，显示市场认同比特币价值储存功能。同时，跨链桥、Layer‑2 协议及机构金融产品的出现，让比特币生态开始逐步承载更多金融功能和应用场景。\n\n4、比特币生态的出路\n\n比特币生态的未来不在于简单模仿其他公链开发大量链上应用，而在于强化自身独有优势：稀缺性、安全性和可信价值。其出路主要有三条方向：第一，巩固价值储存和抗审查特性，使比特币成为全球可信资产；第二，通过闪电网络和 Layer‑2 技术提升可扩展性和流动性，使比特币价值能够在更广泛的生态中流动；第三，通过 ETF、战略资产配置和金融化应用，将比特币进一步嵌入主流金融体系，形成制度性支撑。\n\n这些路径让比特币能够在链上百花齐放的环境中形成独特生态优势，而非单纯追求链上应用数量。比特币的生态定位正在从“数字黄金”向“可信价值基础设施 + 金融化资产”转型，这种独特性正成为其在未来市场竞争中的核心优势。\n\n5、总结\n\n四年周期仍是理解比特币价格波动的重要参考，但在当前市场结构和机构化趋势下，其节奏和高点可能不再像历史上那样精准。市场情绪回暖、长期持币者占比增加，加上机构资金流入，为牛市提供潜在动力，但宏观经济和政策风险依然存在。比特币生态也在加速演进，通过基础设施升级、金融化应用以及闪电网络扩展，正走出一条与其他公链不同的独特道路。在链上百花齐放的时代，比特币的稀缺性、可信性和基础设施优势，将决定其在数字资产格局中的未来位置。\n\n#BTC #Halving #BTCcycle #Macro #ETF #机构化 #Ordinals #BRC20 #Layer2 #牛市 #投资分析 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DeFi：当收益变成陷阱\n\n编辑记者：哈世链闻\n\n11 月的加密市场，本该在以太坊生态的复苏中逐渐回暖，但 DeFi 的裂缝却在悄然扩大。10·11 与 11·3 的两场“稳定币事件”让 $USDe 与 $xUSD 相继陷入困境，而昨夜的 ListaDAO—MEV Capital—USDX 连锁事件，更像是在这道裂缝上重锤一击。\n\n这场风波不仅揭示了熊市里 DeFi 收益的幻觉，也让人看到，所谓“去中心化”的稳定币体系，正变得越来越像一个高杠杆、低透明的资金自循环机器。\n\n收益型稳定币的幻觉\n\n在危机爆发之前，收益型稳定币（YBS）被许多人视为 DeFi 的“低风险创新”：\n它承诺超额抵押、稳健收益、链上透明——听起来几乎完美。\n\n理论模型是这样的：抵押 1.1 美元资产，铸造 1 美元稳定币；将其投放到 DeFi 协议赚取利息；收益的一部分分给持币人，剩下的归项目方。\n然而，在高收益的压力下，这一结构被悄然扭曲——抵押比例被美化、资产类型被混合、杠杆被提前嵌入铸造环节。\n\n这正是 xUSD 事件中所暴露的逻辑：\nStream Finance 利用 Elixir 的 deUSD 撬动四倍杠杆，将杠杆环节前置至发行阶段，形成“铸造即杠杆”的结构。表面上是超额抵押，实际上却是风险浓缩。\n\n当 60% 的发行量掌握在发行方自己手里，所谓“清算机制”早已名存实亡。\n这类结构的风险在牛市中被收益掩盖，一旦市场下行，便会像积木般塌陷。\n\n主理人机制的幻觉\n\n过去一年，DeFi 借贷协议开始引入“主理人（Curator）”制度。\nMorpho、Euler 等项目让独立团队来管理金库、挑选资产，似乎能让风险更分散、更智能。\n可当 Stream 的 xUSD 被广泛接纳后，这种分散反而成为风险的扩散器——每一个金库都在复制相同的毒性资产，最终形成链式殉爆。\n\n讽刺的是，这种“精选市场”反而削弱了用户防御意识。\nAave 像京东自营，安全问题由平台兜底；Morpho 与 Euler 更像淘宝，把安全外包给卖家。\n散户在界面上看到的是“Curated Market”的光环，却未意识到——在出问题时，没人真正负责。\n\n⸻\n\n当 CEX 变透明，DeFi 变模糊\n\n这一轮熊市的最大讽刺是：CEX（中心化交易所）因监管变得越来越透明，而 DeFi 却重新走向灰色。\n协议间的合作不再依靠智能合约，而是依靠 Telegram 群里的返佣截图与“君子协定”。\n危机爆发时，人们看到的不是链上日志，而是一张张表情包式的对话记录。\n\nVitalik 一直呼吁建设“Low-Risk DeFi”，让以太坊成为可承载社会信任的金融基础设施。\n但现实是，收益的诱惑与杠杆的惯性正在让整个行业重蹈覆辙。\n在熊市中，“低风险”常常只是“高风险的最后阶段”。\n\n⸻\n\n昨夜：ListaDAO、MEV Capital 与 USDX 的临界点\n\n11 月 5 日深夜，市场再次上演了一场惊心动魄的链上剧。\nLista Lending 的 MEV USDT Vault 的 APY 一度飙升至 3570% ——当然，那是复利计算，实际年化约在 300% 左右，日化不到 1%。\n表面上看是“超高收益机会”，实际上则是风险的信号弹。\n\n凌晨时分，ListaDAO 官方移除了 30% 的借款利率上限。\n这一步极为关键，也是极为明智的。因为在 USDX 风险逐渐暴露的背景下，唯一的“逃生窗口”，就是通过 DEX 上残余的可清算流动性，尽快完成风险出清。\n⸻\n\nAdaptiveCurveIRM 的“高压曲线”\n\n在利率上限解除后，MEV Capital 的 AdaptiveCurveIRM（自适应利率曲线机制） 开始全面接管市场行为。\n这一机制的原理简单而高效：\n当借贷池使用率超过 90% 时，借款利率不再线性上升，而是进入倍数级别的加速区。\n如果仍无法将使用率压回 90%，曲线将整体上移，利率以指数级别继续飙升。\n\n这一机制最早在 FRAX 的 Curve 清算事件中发挥过作用——它不需要人工干预，只通过经济激励迫使借款人自发平仓，从而保护流动性池的健康。\nMEV Capital 这次同样选择了“放任”机制自动反应，没有过度干预。\n从风险控制角度看，这是合理的选择：\n更激进的利率曲线，反而是更稳健的风控工具。\n\n不过需要指出的是，MEV Capital 当前还背负着 Stream Finance 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高性能交易平台。对于部分人来说，可以先了解平台的功能和积分机制，等代币正式发行后，再关注发行细节和锁仓计划。\n你认为它会成为加密明星项目吗？\n\n本文仅供参考，不构成投资者建议，市场高风险，入市需谨慎。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,140],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/LQyjQ2bmMG","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988869722679701878/photo/1","id_str":"1988869707492171776","indices":[141,164],"media_key":"3_1988869707492171776","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5nidiObIAAUGRF.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/LQyjQ2bmMG","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":468,"w":1199,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":468,"w":1199,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":265,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":468,"width":1199,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":836,"h":468},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":468,"h":468},{"x":4,"y":0,"w":411,"h":468},{"x":92,"y":0,"w":234,"h":468},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1199,"h":468}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988869707492171776"}}},{"display_url":"pic.x.com/LQyjQ2bmMG","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988869722679701878/photo/1","id_str":"1988869612763860992","indices":[141,164],"media_key":"3_1988869612763860992","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5niYBVb0AAq1hK.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/LQyjQ2bmMG","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":600,"w":928,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":600,"w":928,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":440,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":600,"width":928,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":80,"w":928,"h":520},{"x":164,"y":0,"w":600,"h":600},{"x":201,"y":0,"w":526,"h":600},{"x":314,"y":0,"w":300,"h":600},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":928,"h":600}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988869612763860992"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/LQyjQ2bmMG","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988869722679701878/photo/1","id_str":"1988869707492171776","indices":[141,164],"media_key":"3_1988869707492171776","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5nidiObIAAUGRF.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/LQyjQ2bmMG","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":468,"w":1199,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":468,"w":1199,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":265,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":468,"width":1199,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":836,"h":468},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":468,"h":468},{"x":4,"y":0,"w":411,"h":468},{"x":92,"y":0,"w":234,"h":468},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1199,"h":468}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988869707492171776"}}},{"display_url":"pic.x.com/LQyjQ2bmMG","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988869722679701878/photo/1","id_str":"1988869612763860992","indices":[141,164],"media_key":"3_1988869612763860992","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5niYBVb0AAq1hK.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/LQyjQ2bmMG","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":600,"w":928,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":600,"w":928,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":440,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":600,"width":928,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":80,"w":928,"h":520},{"x":164,"y":0,"w":600,"h":600},{"x":201,"y":0,"w":526,"h":600},{"x":314,"y":0,"w":300,"h":600},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":928,"h":600}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988869612763860992"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988869722679701878","view_count":124,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763018467000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1624286098737483778","conversation_id_str":"1988869722679701878","full_text":"《恐惧重临：恐惧指数跌至14，币圈进入“极度寒意”时刻》\n\n最近市场的情绪，冷到有点刺骨。\n今天的加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数降至14，这意味着市场情绪正式进入「极度恐惧」区间。\n上一次跌到这个水平的，还是在去年大跌前后的那段“黑暗时刻”。那么问题来了——这一次的恐惧，到底意味着什么？\n\n什么是恐惧指数？\n\n恐惧与贪婪指数（Fear & Greed Index）是一个衡量市场情绪的指标，范围从 0 到 100。\n\n0-25 属于极度恐惧：投资者普遍悲观，市场处于情绪低谷。\n\n75-100 属于极度贪婪：投资者过于乐观，市场可能过热。\n\n当前的 14，是过去三个月来的最低值，说明资金情绪趋冷，恐慌蔓延，短期资金大规模撤离。\n\n市场为何突然降温？\n\n一是近期数据显示，24小时内全市场爆仓规模大幅上升（数亿美元量级），同时总未平仓头寸有所回落，说明资金在短时间内被强制平仓或主动撤出。衍生品市场去杠杆会迅速放大下跌：一部分被动爆仓造成价格进一步下探，触发更多自动清算，形成自放大下行。\n二是面对稳定币风险和高波动，做市商、套利基金会收缩盘口、撤回挂单或提高点差（尤其在 DeFi 与小众 DEX 上更明显），导致买盘稀疏、卖压更容易把价格推低——这在链上订单簿深度与 DEX 交易量中都有体现。新闻对“流动性收缩”和部分交易所/协议监测到的异常流动性问题已有报道。\n三是近期关于 ETF 批准窗口、监管机关动作（及市场对其可能介入/限制的担忧）使得机构资金变得谨慎。特别是 ETF/监管节奏有不确定性时，机构会倾向于减仓以等待规则明朗，进而减少买方支撑。相关讨论在近期关于 ETF 批准与监管节奏的报道中频繁出现。\n\n冰点中孕育机会\n\n短期看，恐惧情绪带来的是抛压和观望：\n新项目难获关注；\n主流币交投量下降；\n机构与散户同步避险。\n\n但长期看，极度恐惧往往孕育底部信号。\n历史上每一次指数跌破20，都对应了中长期的布局窗口，比如：2022年FTX暴雷时，恐惧指数在12附近，BTC后续从15,000美元反弹至30,000美元；\n2023年黑天鹅期间跌到10，结果半年后BTC翻倍。\n所以，「恐惧」有时候反而是聪明资金的“进场信号灯”。\n\n对比历史：每一次“极度恐惧”之后，市场都发生了什么？\n2020年3月，疫情暴跌时恐惧指数跌到8，BTC在5000美元附近。三个月后，价格翻倍。\n\n2022年11月，FTX崩盘时恐惧指数跌到12，BTC在1.5万美元。四个月后涨到3万美元。\n\n2023年8月，加息周期末期恐惧指数17，BTC在2.5万美元。三个月后反弹至4.2万美元。\n\n现在，2025年11月，恐惧指数14，BTC在5.8万美元。拐点是否又在酝酿？\n\n历史告诉我们：\n 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INX TGE前瞻：Patron NFT持有者获赠10万枚代币，跨链DeFi生态再升级》\n\n哈世链闻消息，跨链聚合 #DeFi平台 #Infinex 宣布即将启动 #INX代币 生成事件（TGE），#PatronNFT 持有者将按 1:100,000 比例空投 10 万枚 #INX，同时平台通过 #Sonar 销售和 #Craterun 活动进一步分发代币。\n本文将围绕 #INX 项目基础信息、治理机制、竞品对比及风险等进行通俗解读。\n\n项目基础信息\n\n项目简介\n#Infinex 是一个定位“超级 #crypto 应用”的平台，旨在将 #跨链聚合、#去中心化交易、#钱包管理、#桥接（bridge）、#交易终端、钱包扩展等功能整合到一个产品里，由 Kain Warwick（曾为 Synthetix 联合创始人）领导。 \n其主张：借助多条链、抽象 gas、极简用户体验，让用户能够像用集中式交易所（CEX）那样方便，又同时保有去中心化、自主控制钱包资产的体验。 \n\nINX 代币基本参数\n\n代币名称：#INX（也称 #INX代币）\n\n总供应量（或上限）：根据 Infinex 官方披露，流传关于 “10 b（10 0 亿）枚” 的数字，即 100 亿枚。\n空投/分发机制：Infinex 表示其 TGE（代币生成事件）将来：“100 % 的供应分配给 Patrons（Patron NFT 持有者）”这一说法。 \n具体为：总共有 100,000 个 Patron NFT，每一个将获得 100,000 枚 INX。 \n同时 uPatron 持有者（微型版本 NFT）将按 1:10 的比例获得 INX。 \n团队持有份额：官方披露团队份额占总量约 20%。\n团队代币将锁定 12 个月，然后再线性释放 12 个月。\n\n初始发行时间 / TGE 时间：尚无公开精确日期，仅知 “TGE 即将到来” 的声明发布于 2025 年11月。 \n初始发行价：官方披露并未给出一个明确的公开发行价数字，而在其 “Craterun 奖励”文中提到“基于 Patron NFT 价格，隐含 INX 价格约 5 美分（$0.05）” 的印象。 \n上线平台 / 支持链：Infinex 表示其将在 TGE 第一日支持三条新链：Monad、MegaEth、Fogo。 \n\n代币用途：\n\n持有 Patron NFT 可获 INX；\nINX 被用于平台激励分发、用户活动奖励；\n根据 Infinex 的叙述，INX 还用于捕获平台收入（例如通过平台产生的手续费或利润回购代币）以支持代币价值。\n\n是否有销毁机制 / 铸币增发机制 / 动态调节供应：\n官方披露中 没有明确提到销毁机制（burn）。\n关于是否增发或动态调节供应，目前披露为 “总供应量固定100 亿枚” 的表述，暂未见公开说明后续增发。\n也未明确提到减半、回购销毁等机制。\n\n流通量 / 初始流通盘比例 / FDV：\n因尚未 TGE，上线前流通量数据尚不可见。官方称分配给 Patron NFT，即 100 000 个 NFT × 100 000 枚 = 10 亿枚分配给 Patrons，其余供应（如 90 亿枚）可能由 Treasury／激励池／团队持有。\n\n核心亮点：\n多链支持 + 跨链抽象 gas 体验：Infinex 强调支持新链、桥接、无痛转移资产。\n公平分发机制：利用 NFT + Craterun 等活动让更多用户进入分发机制，而非传统 VC 私募。\n团队承诺锁仓机制：团队持币锁定 12 个月＋12 个月线性释放，体现一定长期绑定意愿。\n平台设计定位：尝试将去中心化钱包/交易体验与 CEX 体验融合，降低用户进入门槛。\n\n是否存在砸盘风险 / 价格稳定机制：\n由于尚未大规模流通，早期代币持有者（如 Patron NFT 持有者）若解锁即卖出，存在较大抛售压力。\n官方提及将用“平台收入回购代币”机制（Revenue → Buy‑Back）来支撑代币。\n但未见完整披露明确的价格稳定机制（例如锁仓期、回购比例、销毁机制）细节。\n\n合规风险：\n虽然项目在宣传中强调支持多链、新链、抽象 gas，但目前尚无明确披露其合规机制（如是否在特定地区注册）且新链支持本身带来技术与法律风险。\n如果代币被认定为证券或金融产品，可能受限当地法律监管。\n\n解锁风险：\n团队锁仓虽有明确机制，但早期持有者（如 Patron NFT 持有者）解锁期安排是否透明、是否有提前售卖风险仍需观察。\n倘若大量 Patron NFT 持有者在解锁后同步抛售，可能对价格造成下行压力。\n\nInfinex 的 INX 项目目前处于“预发行／TGE前”阶段，核心亮点聚焦于跨链 UX、用户分发及社区机制。但由于尚未完全上线披露，很多关键参数仍处于预设状态。\n\n治理机制\nPatron NFT 持有者：Infinex 表示该 NFT 持有者是获取 INX 的主要方式之一。 \n治理模型：根据 OakResearch 整理，Patron NFT 持有者将通过选举方式选出一个“委员会（council）”，由该委员会代表持有者执行治理决策（如选择资产、协议功能、技术路线）而非每一次都让全体持有者直接 vote。 \n决策方向包括：资产上线、功能实现、协议方向等。Patron NFT 作为治理身份凭证。\n代币治理权：目前尚无公开资料显示 INX 代币本身是否赋予投票权、权益参与等；主要治理权似乎与Patron NFT 关联。\n治理激励机制：平台通过 Crate Run、活动获取用户参与权，并通过这些方式扩大社区参与度。\n \n整体来看，治理机制试图结合 NFT + 代币分发＋用户参与，但具体运作细节（如委员会选举机制、代币持有者权利、提案机制、否决机制）尚未完全公开，仍需进一步观察。\n\n竞品对比\n为了更好理解 Infinex 所处的位置，我们选取两类竞品进行对比：跨链聚合／交易体验型项目，以及传统交易所代币／平台代币。\n竞品 A：跨链聚合／交易体验型\n\n1inch Network／其代币 1INCH：作为跨链聚合器＋ DEX 路由器，用户可通过代币参与治理、手续费返还等。\nParaswap 等同类聚合器。\n对比 Infinex 的优势与劣势：\n优势：Infinex 着重将“钱包”、“交易终端”、“桥接聚合”融合，并强调用户体验（UX）与多链支持，目标不仅仅是一个路由器。\n劣势：1inch 等已有成熟生态、用户基础、路由量，Infinex 为新项目，尚需证明其技术落地、用户增长及聚合效果。\n竞品 B：平台代币/交易所代币\nBNB (Binance 币)：用于交易所手续费折扣、生态建设、回购销毁。\n\nInfinex 的 INX 更偏项目生态代币＋社区分发机制，而不是传统交易所代币。其亮点在于“公平分发＋NFT ＋平台收入回购”。但传统交易所代币通常有成熟市场、流动性、较高认知度，Infinex 需努力建立信任与生态。\n\nInfinex 在“用户体验＋跨链＋公平分发”三大方向有亮点，若能成功落地，与上述竞品相比有差异化优势。但挑战也显著——生态是否能快速获取用户、技术是否稳定、代币分发机制是否公平、市场能否接受其新模式等。\n\n风险提示\n在考虑投资或参与该项目之前，需重点关注以下风险：\n流动性与抛售风险\n早期 NFT 持有者获得较大份额（每个 Patron NFT 可获 100,000 枚 INX），若解锁后集中出售，可能对价格造成冲击。\n虽团队锁仓机制明确，但其它持有者锁仓情况尚未披露。\n\n代币模型未完全落实风险\n虽然宣称“平台收入回购代币”作为价值支撑，但未见完整公开回购机制、回购比例、销毁计划等。\n若代币仅作奖励分发而无明确增值机制，可能导致价值承诺难以兑现。\n合规／监管风险\n项目跨链、全球化、涉及 NFT + 代币分发，可能受到各国证券法、税务法、KYC/AML 问题影响。\n若代币被认定为证券，可能被监管机构约束。\n生态执行风险\nInfinex 的愿景较大（多链支持、抽象 gas、钱包+终端一体化），但技术实现、用户获取、市场竞争均为挑战。若用户增长未达预期，代币价值支撑将受影响。\n竞品众多，用户迁移成本高。若体验不如预期，可能难以突破。\n解锁时间表透明度风险\n团队锁仓期明确，但 NFT 持有者、激励池、早期投资者解锁条款不一定完全透明。解锁后的大规模抛售可能带来负面冲击。\n价格波动与市场风险\n新代币上线初期，市场对其认知、流动性、支持者信心尚在建设中，价格极易波动。投资者需承受较高波动风险。\n\n请注意：本文仅为信息整理与分析，不构成任何投资建议。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,151],"entities":{"hashtags":[{"indices":[36,43],"text":"史上最长停摆"},{"indices":[36,43],"text":"史上最长停摆"},{"indices":[253,257],"text":"比特币"},{"indices":[260,264],"text":"山寨币"},{"indices":[575,581],"text":"美联储政策"},{"indices":[800,804],"text":"BTC"},{"indices":[861,865],"text":"BTC"},{"indices":[866,870],"text":"ETH"},{"indices":[875,879],"text":"山寨币"},{"indices":[912,916],"text":"ETF"}],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E7AteEIPsI","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988906513730044122/photo/1","id_str":"1988906495644450816","indices":[152,175],"media_key":"3_1988906495644450816","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5oD64xawAAXJM3.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E7AteEIPsI","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":749,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":749,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":424,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":749,"width":1200,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":77,"w":1200,"h":672},{"x":135,"y":0,"w":749,"h":749},{"x":181,"y":0,"w":657,"h":749},{"x":322,"y":0,"w":375,"h":749},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1200,"h":749}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988906495644450816"}}},{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E7AteEIPsI","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988906513730044122/photo/1","id_str":"1988906495644430337","indices":[152,175],"media_key":"3_1988906495644430337","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5oD64xacAE6Zr8.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E7AteEIPsI","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1200,"w":848,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":1200,"w":848,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":680,"w":481,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":1200,"width":848,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":153,"w":848,"h":475},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":848},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":967},{"x":248,"y":0,"w":600,"h":1200},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":1200}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988906495644430337"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E7AteEIPsI","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988906513730044122/photo/1","id_str":"1988906495644450816","indices":[152,175],"media_key":"3_1988906495644450816","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5oD64xawAAXJM3.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E7AteEIPsI","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":749,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":749,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":424,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":749,"width":1200,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":77,"w":1200,"h":672},{"x":135,"y":0,"w":749,"h":749},{"x":181,"y":0,"w":657,"h":749},{"x":322,"y":0,"w":375,"h":749},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1200,"h":749}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988906495644450816"}}},{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E7AteEIPsI","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988906513730044122/photo/1","id_str":"1988906495644430337","indices":[152,175],"media_key":"3_1988906495644430337","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5oD64xacAE6Zr8.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E7AteEIPsI","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1200,"w":848,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":1200,"w":848,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":680,"w":481,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":1200,"width":848,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":153,"w":848,"h":475},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":848},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":967},{"x":248,"y":0,"w":600,"h":1200},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":1200}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988906495644430337"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988906513730044122","view_count":31,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763027239000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1624286098737483778","conversati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40 天的“#史上最长停摆”，美国政府终于确认可以恢复运作。这意味着财政部 TGA（Treasury General Account，总账户）终于可以“开闸”，释放过去几周被锁在账户中的巨额资金——大约 1 万亿美元的流动性即将重新回到市场。\n\n停摆期间，由于政府无法按计划支出，TGA 从约 3000 亿美元猛增至超过 1 万亿美元，相当于短短 40 天里把超过 7000 亿美元从市场中抽走，造成了结构性的“美元荒”。这一流动性紧缩，是导致 #比特币 和 #山寨币 在 11 月初非但守不住 10 万美元，甚至跌破 9.9 万美元的关键因素。\n值得注意的是：为什么说政府开门后，市场大概率是先跌后涨呢？原因在于两个因素的错位叠加：\n\n一个是数据黑洞引发短期恐慌，停摆导致劳工统计局（BLS）和其他关键数据部门瘫痪。9 月就业数据是“拼凑”，10 月 CPI、PPI、PCE 等通胀数据甚至可能缺失。美联储主席鲍威尔一向强调“数据驱动”（Data-Dependent），但现在“无数据可依”，导致市场无法判断未来货币政策走向。\n\n这种不确定性让华尔街交易员倾向于抛售高风险资产，市场短期出现回调，哪怕政府刚开门、流动性即将释放。\n10 月 31 日，隔夜拆借利率飙升至 4.22%，高于 #美联储政策 上限 4%，银行纷纷冲向美联储紧急窗口，总额达 503.5 亿美元，显示市场“缺钱”的恐慌真实存在。\n\n二是流动性释放尚未完全入市，虽然 TGA 1 万亿美元即将释放，但市场的“蓄水池”——RRP（逆回购工具）余额已降至不足 800 亿美元，无法吸收所有流动性。这意味着资金短期内需要寻找合适的风险资产配置，这个过程存在错配和短期震荡，导致市场先跌后涨。\n\n对于加密市场而言，政府开门带来的先跌后涨格局，有几个直接影响：\n短期波动加大：#BTC 可能会在 10万美元附近经历震荡。\n长期流动性利好：TGA 的释放会直接流入银行准备金，推动风险资产配置，包括 #BTC、#ETH 和主要 #山寨币。\nETF 和合规资金加速入场：SEC 复工后，将批准更多山寨币 #ETF，为市场注入合法资金，山寨币也会有利好。\n\n类似情况曾在历史上出现过：\n\n2013 年美国政府部分停摆：停摆结束前比特币短线下跌约 15%，停摆结束后一周内快速反弹 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Gate首发上线Play Solana现货交易\n\n哈世链闻消息，Gate将于2025年11月14日22:00（UTC+8）首发上线Play Solana (PLAYSOLANA)现货交易。\n\n$PLAYSOLANA #GateExchange #Cryptocurrency #Blockchain #Solana #CryptoTrading","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,182],"entities":{"hashtags":[{"indices":[275,290],"text":"Cryptocurrency"},{"indices":[291,302],"text":"Blockchain"},{"indices":[303,312],"text":"Coinbase"},{"indices":[313,321],"text":"Binance"}],"symbols":[{"indices":[264,269],"text":"BANK"},{"indices":[270,274],"text":"MET"}],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988973526364364911","view_count":21,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763043216000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1624286098737483778","conversation_id_str":"1988973526364364911","full_text":"币安交易所实时公告： 币安上线Lorenzo Protocol (BANK)和Meteora (MET)\n\n哈世链闻消息，币安推出Lorenzo Protocol (BANK)和Meteora (MET)，计划于2025年11月13日22:00上线。届时用户可通过币安理财、闪兑和一键买币等平台购买这些加密货币。用户可以使用信用卡、Google Pay、Apple Pay等方式购买，并在现货上线后一小时内开始交易。此外，这些代币可在币安的全仓、逐仓杠杆中进行支持。币安提醒用户新上币种可能波动较大，建议交易时注意风险管理。\n\n$BANK $MET #Cryptocurrency #Blockchain #Coinbase 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Internet Group 是一家金融科技（FinTech）公司，致力于打造“互联网金融基础设施”。其核心目标是将区块链、稳定币、数字资产基础设施与传统金融系统连接起来。\n\n主营业务\n主要可拆分为以下几类：\n稳定币发行与流通：公司是知名稳定币 USD Coin（USDC）的主要发行方之一，其发行、赎回、管理及流通规模是其核心资产。\n准备金／利息收入：USDC 背后的准备金（通常为现金或短期国债等低风险资产）为公司带来利息或回报。\n平台与开发者服务：公司提供 API、钱包／铸币／赎币服务，帮助开发者、金融机构、支付公司将稳定币或数字资产集成进其业务。\n区块链基础设施扩张：公司推出的 Arc Network（Layer-1 区块链）测试网、“Circle Payments Network”（CPN）支付网络等，意在构建生态平台，未来可能推出原生代币。\n\n市场与竞争环境\n市场需求：随着区块链应用（如 DeFi、链上支付、跨境结算）扩展，稳定币作为桥梁资产与链上工具地位加强。\n竞争与风险：USDC 虽具规模，但仍面临如 Tether USD（USDT）等先行者竞争；此外，监管、利率、信任机制、流通安全等均为潜在挑战。\n\n模式亮点\n网络效应：USDC 流通规模越大、链上应用越广，公司越能从中获益。\n成本／规模杠杆：稳定币规模扩大后，稀释了单位成本，提升盈利。\n长期愿景为 “互联网经济 OS”：公司管理层提出，其不仅是稳定币发行方，更定位为构建下一代互联网金融操作系统。\n\n最新业绩 &成长动能\n\nQ3 2025 财报关键数据\n根据公司披露：\nUSDC 流通规模约 737 亿美元，年增长约 108%。 \n本季度“总收入 + 储备收入”约 7.40 亿美元，同比增长约 66%。\n 净利润约 2.14 亿美元，同比增长约 202%。\n调整后 EBITDA 约 1.66 亿美元，同比增长约 78%。 \n公司宣布其 Arc 公测网已吸引 100 + 家金融或科技公司参与；正在探索推出 Arc 原生代币。 \n公司更新全年“Other Revenue”（即非储备相关收入）预期至 9000–10000 万美元。 \n\n解读：成长驱动力\n流通规模翻倍以上，说明其稳定币产品在市场上的渗透及采用显著加速。\n收入及盈利大幅增长，表明不仅规模扩大，且盈利能力初步显现。\n业务结构开始从单纯“准备金利息”向“生态／平台服务”扩展（“Other Revenue”增长、Arc／CPN 等战略项目推进）。\n虽市场反应谨慎（如因利率下降可能影响利息收益）但从经营数据看，公司成长性明显。\n\n行业地位与竞争比较\n在稳定币发行市场，USDC 是主要资产之一，且其流通规模和链上交易量都在迅速扩张。\n\n公司通过扩展支付网络、区块链生态、代币化资产服务，试图从“一张稳定币”扩展到“一个平台生态”。\n相比仅发行稳定币的机构，Circle 的优势在于构建更广泛的基础设施，但同时也承担更高成长型投资与平台构建风险。\n行业风险包括监管（如稳定币定义、合规要求）、利率环境（影响准备金收益）、技术／信任风险（储备透明度、用户信心）等。\n\n估值数据\n\n根据 StockAnalysis，当前市值约 USD 20.7 B，企业价值（EV）约 USD 21.55 B。\n主要估值比率（截至最近）：\nP/S（市销率）约 4.61 倍。 \nEV/Revenue ≈ 15.10 倍。 \nP/B（市净率）约 13.69 倍。 \n根据 SimplyWallSt：P/S 约 10.7 倍（不同数据源略有差别）且指出其较同业偏高。\n \n估值分析\n\n为便于理解，构建两个基本估值情景：保守与乐观。\n\n保守情景\n假设未来 2-3 年内，USDC 流通规模继续增长，但增长速度放缓，营收增长逐渐稳定。\n假设营收从本季度 ~0.74 亿美元 ×4（全年化约 3 亿美元）增长至 ~20 亿美元。\n假设给予 P/S 市销率约 6-8 倍。\n理论市值约 20 亿 × 6 ≈ 120 亿 美元至 20 亿 × 8 ≈ 160 亿 美元。\n若股本未变，对应每股目标价应依据当前流通股数折算。\n\n乐观情景\n假设公司生态结构成功建立，USDC 流通规模及平台服务迅猛扩张，营收增长至如 50-100 亿美元水平。\n假设给予更高 P/S 倍数，例如 10-12 倍。\n若营收达 50 亿美元 ×10 = 500 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| 深度】\n本周二（10月28日），Bitwise的Solana质押ETF (BSOL)、Canary的莱特币ETF (LTCN) 和HBAR ETF (HBAR) 将通过特殊的 “8-A文件” 形式，直接登陆纽交所和纳斯达克！\n这意味着它们 绕过了常规、漫长的SEC审批流程，实现了快速上市。这不仅是加密资产主流化的关键跃迁，更可能是一种全新的“上市范式”。 \n\n1、 什么是ETF？它为何如此重要？\n首先，让我们回归基础。ETF（Exchange-Traded Fund）即“交易所交易基金”。你可以把它想象成一个“资产篮子”，里面装着股票、债券或像黄金、比特币这样的商品。这个“篮子”本身又像股票一样，可以在证券交易所自由买卖。\n对普通投资者而言，ETF的最大优势是 “简单” 和 “合规”。\n简单：无需学习如何使用加密钱包、管理私钥，只需通过传统的股票账户就能投资加密资产。\n合规：ETF受到严格的金融监管，为机构和保守型投资者提供了安全、合规的入场通道。 \n\n2、 加密货币与ETF的结缘之路\n加密世界与ETF的首次“联姻”始于 比特币。经过长达十年的申请与等待，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）终于在 2024年1月 批准了首批比特币现货ETF。 这一事件被视为币圈的“诺曼底登陆”，它为市场带来了数百亿美元的机构资金，并直接推动了比特币价格创下历史新高。\n随后，以太坊现货ETF 也在 2025年5月 获批，进一步巩固了加密资产作为主流投资品的地位。 可以说，每一次主流币种的ETF获批，都是一次将加密市场与传统金融世界深度绑定的过程。 \n\n3、揭秘“8-A文件”：本次上市的秘密通道\n那么，为什么这次的ETF能如此之快？关键在于它们利用了 “证券法第12(b)条的8-A注册文件”。\n这是一种特殊的注册形式，通常用于将已在场外市场（OTC）交易的证券转换为主板上市公司。它允许发行方 绕过标准的S-1文件审批流程，后者正是比特币ETF耗费了数年时间才走完的漫长程序。\n这本质上是利用了现有法规的一个“巧妙后门”，是华尔街在加密领域的又一次规则创新。\n\n4、本次“闪电上市”，意味着什么？\n如果说BTC/ETH的ETF是打开了传统资金进入加密世界的大门，那么这次SOL、LTC等ETF的“闪电上市”，则 打开了通往更广阔加密生态的“高速公路”。\n资产类别的承认：这标志着监管和传统金融界不再将比特币视为唯一的“合格”加密资产。Solana这类高性能公链、莱特币这类老牌加密货币的价值得到了进一步认可。\n生态系统的繁荣：从10月28日开始，ETF将直接为Solana、Hedera等公链生态系统注入新的流动性和关注度，推动其链上应用（DeFi, NFT）的发展。\n上市范式的变革：这可能为后续其他“山寨币”ETF提供了一条全新的、更高效的上市路径，大大缩短了等待时间。 \n\n5、未来影响：我们正处在哪个阶段？\n我们正处在 “加密资产ETF化” 的加速阶段。本次事件预示着一个清晰的未来趋势：\n更多“山寨币”ETF将涌现：瑞波币（XRP）、卡尔达诺（ADA）等拥有场外信托产品的币种，很可能效仿这一路径，寻求快速上市。\n投资组合多样化：投资者将能像配置不同行业的股票一样，轻松地在投资组合中配置不同的加密资产，以分散风险。\n市场成熟度提升：随着监管框架的完善和更多合规产品的出现，加密市场的波动性可能逐渐降低，市场行为将更加理性。\n\n6、总结：一个新时代的序幕\n从比特币的十年长跑到如今Solana的“闪电”登陆，ETF正在以超乎预期的速度重塑加密货币的投资版图。\n10月28日，将作为“山寨币”ETF时代开启的日子被载入史册。它不仅是资金的入口，更是加密资产获得全球金融体系认可的“通行证”，而“8-A文件”则成为了这张通行证的“快速通道”。\n作为市场的见证者，我们正在亲历历史。\n\n#加密货币 #ETF #Solana #Crypto #美股 #区块链 #Web3 #sol #Hedera #LTC #Altcoin #SEC","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,32],"entities":{"hashtags":[{"indices":[328,343],"text":"Cryptocurrency"},{"indices":[344,355],"text":"Blockchain"},{"indices":[356,360],"text":"BTC"}],"symbols":[{"indices":[312,316],"text":"BTC"},{"indices":[317,321],"text":"PRE"},{"indices":[322,327],"text":"EXOD"}],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982998397780144186","view_count":13,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761618635000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1624286098737483778","conversation_id_str":"1982998397780144186","full_text":"贝克汉姆支持的Prenetics筹集4800万美元促进比特币储备\n\n哈世链闻消息，由大卫·贝克汉姆投资的健康科学公司Prenetics（PRE）通过一轮超额认购的股权融资筹集4800万美元，资金将用于拓展其健康品牌IM8，并推进比特币储备策略。公司公告称，通过行使认股权证，总融资额可能达到2.16亿美元。该轮融资吸引了Kraken、Exodus（EXOD）、GPTX和American Ventures等投资者。首席执行官Danny Yeung表示，这些资金将帮助IM8实现全球扩张，同时每日积累1枚比特币，以期在五年内实现收入和比特币持有量均达10亿美元的目标。目前，公司拥有268.4枚比特币，价值3090万美元。\n\n$BTC $PRE $EXOD #Cryptocurrency #Blockchain 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| 深度】\n本周二（10月28日），Bitwise的Solana质押ETF (BSOL)、Canary的莱特币ETF (LTCN) 和HBAR ETF (HBAR) 将通过特殊的 “8-A文件” 形式，直接登陆纽交所和纳斯达克！\n这意味着它们 绕过了常规、漫长的SEC审批流程，实现了快速上市。这不仅是加密资产主流化的关键跃迁，更可能是一种全新的“上市范式”。 \n\n1、 什么是ETF？它为何如此重要？\n首先，让我们回归基础。ETF（Exchange-Traded Fund）即“交易所交易基金”。你可以把它想象成一个“资产篮子”，里面装着股票、债券或像黄金、比特币这样的商品。这个“篮子”本身又像股票一样，可以在证券交易所自由买卖。\n对普通投资者而言，ETF的最大优势是 “简单” 和 “合规”。\n简单：无需学习如何使用加密钱包、管理私钥，只需通过传统的股票账户就能投资加密资产。\n合规：ETF受到严格的金融监管，为机构和保守型投资者提供了安全、合规的入场通道。 \n\n2、 加密货币与ETF的结缘之路\n加密世界与ETF的首次“联姻”始于 比特币。经过长达十年的申请与等待，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）终于在 2024年1月 批准了首批比特币现货ETF。 这一事件被视为币圈的“诺曼底登陆”，它为市场带来了数百亿美元的机构资金，并直接推动了比特币价格创下历史新高。\n随后，以太坊现货ETF 也在 2025年5月 获批，进一步巩固了加密资产作为主流投资品的地位。 可以说，每一次主流币种的ETF获批，都是一次将加密市场与传统金融世界深度绑定的过程。 \n\n3、揭秘“8-A文件”：本次上市的秘密通道\n那么，为什么这次的ETF能如此之快？关键在于它们利用了 “证券法第12(b)条的8-A注册文件”。\n这是一种特殊的注册形式，通常用于将已在场外市场（OTC）交易的证券转换为主板上市公司。它允许发行方 绕过标准的S-1文件审批流程，后者正是比特币ETF耗费了数年时间才走完的漫长程序。\n这本质上是利用了现有法规的一个“巧妙后门”，是华尔街在加密领域的又一次规则创新。\n\n4、本次“闪电上市”，意味着什么？\n如果说BTC/ETH的ETF是打开了传统资金进入加密世界的大门，那么这次SOL、LTC等ETF的“闪电上市”，则 打开了通往更广阔加密生态的“高速公路”。\n资产类别的承认：这标志着监管和传统金融界不再将比特币视为唯一的“合格”加密资产。Solana这类高性能公链、莱特币这类老牌加密货币的价值得到了进一步认可。\n生态系统的繁荣：从10月28日开始，ETF将直接为Solana、Hedera等公链生态系统注入新的流动性和关注度，推动其链上应用（DeFi, NFT）的发展。\n上市范式的变革：这可能为后续其他“山寨币”ETF提供了一条全新的、更高效的上市路径，大大缩短了等待时间。 \n\n5、未来影响：我们正处在哪个阶段？\n我们正处在 “加密资产ETF化” 的加速阶段。本次事件预示着一个清晰的未来趋势：\n更多“山寨币”ETF将涌现：瑞波币（XRP）、卡尔达诺（ADA）等拥有场外信托产品的币种，很可能效仿这一路径，寻求快速上市。\n投资组合多样化：投资者将能像配置不同行业的股票一样，轻松地在投资组合中配置不同的加密资产，以分散风险。\n市场成熟度提升：随着监管框架的完善和更多合规产品的出现，加密市场的波动性可能逐渐降低，市场行为将更加理性。\n\n6、总结：一个新时代的序幕\n从比特币的十年长跑到如今Solana的“闪电”登陆，ETF正在以超乎预期的速度重塑加密货币的投资版图。\n10月28日，将作为“山寨币”ETF时代开启的日子被载入史册。它不仅是资金的入口，更是加密资产获得全球金融体系认可的“通行证”，而“8-A文件”则成为了这张通行证的“快速通道”。\n作为市场的见证者，我们正在亲历历史。\n\n#加密货币 #ETF #Solana #Crypto #美股 #区块链 #Web3 #sol #Hedera #LTC 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不等，为投资者提供心理预期参考，但不应视为保证。\n\n3、比特币生态的变化\n\n近年来，比特币生态呈现“链上百花齐放”的特征。虽然以太坊和 Solana 的 DeFi、NFT 生态发展更活跃，但比特币正在悄然升级基础设施。闪电网络扩展通道数量已突破 5 万条，总容量达到 2,200 BTC，这意味着比特币在小额支付和跨链价值传输方面的能力正稳步提升。同时，多家主要交易所和支付平台已支持闪电网络支付，提升了链上实际应用价值。\n\n长期持币地址稳步增加，显示市场认同比特币价值储存功能。同时，跨链桥、Layer‑2 协议及机构金融产品的出现，让比特币生态开始逐步承载更多金融功能和应用场景。\n\n4、比特币生态的出路\n\n比特币生态的未来不在于简单模仿其他公链开发大量链上应用，而在于强化自身独有优势：稀缺性、安全性和可信价值。其出路主要有三条方向：第一，巩固价值储存和抗审查特性，使比特币成为全球可信资产；第二，通过闪电网络和 Layer‑2 技术提升可扩展性和流动性，使比特币价值能够在更广泛的生态中流动；第三，通过 ETF、战略资产配置和金融化应用，将比特币进一步嵌入主流金融体系，形成制度性支撑。\n\n这些路径让比特币能够在链上百花齐放的环境中形成独特生态优势，而非单纯追求链上应用数量。比特币的生态定位正在从“数字黄金”向“可信价值基础设施 + 金融化资产”转型，这种独特性正成为其在未来市场竞争中的核心优势。\n\n5、总结\n\n四年周期仍是理解比特币价格波动的重要参考，但在当前市场结构和机构化趋势下，其节奏和高点可能不再像历史上那样精准。市场情绪回暖、长期持币者占比增加，加上机构资金流入，为牛市提供潜在动力，但宏观经济和政策风险依然存在。比特币生态也在加速演进，通过基础设施升级、金融化应用以及闪电网络扩展，正走出一条与其他公链不同的独特道路。在链上百花齐放的时代，比特币的稀缺性、可信性和基础设施优势，将决定其在数字资产格局中的未来位置。\n\n#BTC #Halving #BTCcycle #Macro #ETF #机构化 #Ordinals #BRC20 #Layer2 #牛市 #投资分析 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DeFi：当收益变成陷阱\n\n编辑记者：哈世链闻\n\n11 月的加密市场，本该在以太坊生态的复苏中逐渐回暖，但 DeFi 的裂缝却在悄然扩大。10·11 与 11·3 的两场“稳定币事件”让 $USDe 与 $xUSD 相继陷入困境，而昨夜的 ListaDAO—MEV Capital—USDX 连锁事件，更像是在这道裂缝上重锤一击。\n\n这场风波不仅揭示了熊市里 DeFi 收益的幻觉，也让人看到，所谓“去中心化”的稳定币体系，正变得越来越像一个高杠杆、低透明的资金自循环机器。\n\n收益型稳定币的幻觉\n\n在危机爆发之前，收益型稳定币（YBS）被许多人视为 DeFi 的“低风险创新”：\n它承诺超额抵押、稳健收益、链上透明——听起来几乎完美。\n\n理论模型是这样的：抵押 1.1 美元资产，铸造 1 美元稳定币；将其投放到 DeFi 协议赚取利息；收益的一部分分给持币人，剩下的归项目方。\n然而，在高收益的压力下，这一结构被悄然扭曲——抵押比例被美化、资产类型被混合、杠杆被提前嵌入铸造环节。\n\n这正是 xUSD 事件中所暴露的逻辑：\nStream Finance 利用 Elixir 的 deUSD 撬动四倍杠杆，将杠杆环节前置至发行阶段，形成“铸造即杠杆”的结构。表面上是超额抵押，实际上却是风险浓缩。\n\n当 60% 的发行量掌握在发行方自己手里，所谓“清算机制”早已名存实亡。\n这类结构的风险在牛市中被收益掩盖，一旦市场下行，便会像积木般塌陷。\n\n主理人机制的幻觉\n\n过去一年，DeFi 借贷协议开始引入“主理人（Curator）”制度。\nMorpho、Euler 等项目让独立团队来管理金库、挑选资产，似乎能让风险更分散、更智能。\n可当 Stream 的 xUSD 被广泛接纳后，这种分散反而成为风险的扩散器——每一个金库都在复制相同的毒性资产，最终形成链式殉爆。\n\n讽刺的是，这种“精选市场”反而削弱了用户防御意识。\nAave 像京东自营，安全问题由平台兜底；Morpho 与 Euler 更像淘宝，把安全外包给卖家。\n散户在界面上看到的是“Curated Market”的光环，却未意识到——在出问题时，没人真正负责。\n\n⸻\n\n当 CEX 变透明，DeFi 变模糊\n\n这一轮熊市的最大讽刺是：CEX（中心化交易所）因监管变得越来越透明，而 DeFi 却重新走向灰色。\n协议间的合作不再依靠智能合约，而是依靠 Telegram 群里的返佣截图与“君子协定”。\n危机爆发时，人们看到的不是链上日志，而是一张张表情包式的对话记录。\n\nVitalik 一直呼吁建设“Low-Risk DeFi”，让以太坊成为可承载社会信任的金融基础设施。\n但现实是，收益的诱惑与杠杆的惯性正在让整个行业重蹈覆辙。\n在熊市中，“低风险”常常只是“高风险的最后阶段”。\n\n⸻\n\n昨夜：ListaDAO、MEV Capital 与 USDX 的临界点\n\n11 月 5 日深夜，市场再次上演了一场惊心动魄的链上剧。\nLista Lending 的 MEV USDT Vault 的 APY 一度飙升至 3570% ——当然，那是复利计算，实际年化约在 300% 左右，日化不到 1%。\n表面上看是“超高收益机会”，实际上则是风险的信号弹。\n\n凌晨时分，ListaDAO 官方移除了 30% 的借款利率上限。\n这一步极为关键，也是极为明智的。因为在 USDX 风险逐渐暴露的背景下，唯一的“逃生窗口”，就是通过 DEX 上残余的可清算流动性，尽快完成风险出清。\n⸻\n\nAdaptiveCurveIRM 的“高压曲线”\n\n在利率上限解除后，MEV Capital 的 AdaptiveCurveIRM（自适应利率曲线机制） 开始全面接管市场行为。\n这一机制的原理简单而高效：\n当借贷池使用率超过 90% 时，借款利率不再线性上升，而是进入倍数级别的加速区。\n如果仍无法将使用率压回 90%，曲线将整体上移，利率以指数级别继续飙升。\n\n这一机制最早在 FRAX 的 Curve 清算事件中发挥过作用——它不需要人工干预，只通过经济激励迫使借款人自发平仓，从而保护流动性池的健康。\nMEV Capital 这次同样选择了“放任”机制自动反应，没有过度干预。\n从风险控制角度看，这是合理的选择：\n更激进的利率曲线，反而是更稳健的风控工具。\n\n不过需要指出的是，MEV Capital 当前还背负着 Stream Finance 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高性能交易平台。对于部分人来说，可以先了解平台的功能和积分机制，等代币正式发行后，再关注发行细节和锁仓计划。\n你认为它会成为加密明星项目吗？\n\n本文仅供参考，不构成投资者建议，市场高风险，入市需谨慎。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,140],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/LQyjQ2bmMG","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988869722679701878/photo/1","id_str":"1988869707492171776","indices":[141,164],"media_key":"3_1988869707492171776","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5nidiObIAAUGRF.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/LQyjQ2bmMG","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":468,"w":1199,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":468,"w":1199,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":265,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":468,"width":1199,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":836,"h":468},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":468,"h":468},{"x":4,"y":0,"w":411,"h":468},{"x":92,"y":0,"w":234,"h":468},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1199,"h":468}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988869707492171776"}}},{"display_url":"pic.x.com/LQyjQ2bmMG","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988869722679701878/photo/1","id_str":"1988869612763860992","indices":[141,164],"media_key":"3_1988869612763860992","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5niYBVb0AAq1hK.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/LQyjQ2bmMG","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":600,"w":928,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":600,"w":928,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":440,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":600,"width":928,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":80,"w":928,"h":520},{"x":164,"y":0,"w":600,"h":600},{"x":201,"y":0,"w":526,"h":600},{"x":314,"y":0,"w":300,"h":600},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":928,"h":600}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988869612763860992"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/LQyjQ2bmMG","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988869722679701878/photo/1","id_str":"1988869707492171776","indices":[141,164],"media_key":"3_1988869707492171776","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5nidiObIAAUGRF.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/LQyjQ2bmMG","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":468,"w":1199,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":468,"w":1199,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":265,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":468,"width":1199,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":836,"h":468},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":468,"h":468},{"x":4,"y":0,"w":411,"h":468},{"x":92,"y":0,"w":234,"h":468},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1199,"h":468}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988869707492171776"}}},{"display_url":"pic.x.com/LQyjQ2bmMG","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988869722679701878/photo/1","id_str":"1988869612763860992","indices":[141,164],"media_key":"3_1988869612763860992","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5niYBVb0AAq1hK.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/LQyjQ2bmMG","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":600,"w":928,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":600,"w":928,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":440,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":600,"width":928,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":80,"w":928,"h":520},{"x":164,"y":0,"w":600,"h":600},{"x":201,"y":0,"w":526,"h":600},{"x":314,"y":0,"w":300,"h":600},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":928,"h":600}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988869612763860992"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988869722679701878","view_count":124,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763018467000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1624286098737483778","conversation_id_str":"1988869722679701878","full_text":"《恐惧重临：恐惧指数跌至14，币圈进入“极度寒意”时刻》\n\n最近市场的情绪，冷到有点刺骨。\n今天的加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数降至14，这意味着市场情绪正式进入「极度恐惧」区间。\n上一次跌到这个水平的，还是在去年大跌前后的那段“黑暗时刻”。那么问题来了——这一次的恐惧，到底意味着什么？\n\n什么是恐惧指数？\n\n恐惧与贪婪指数（Fear & Greed Index）是一个衡量市场情绪的指标，范围从 0 到 100。\n\n0-25 属于极度恐惧：投资者普遍悲观，市场处于情绪低谷。\n\n75-100 属于极度贪婪：投资者过于乐观，市场可能过热。\n\n当前的 14，是过去三个月来的最低值，说明资金情绪趋冷，恐慌蔓延，短期资金大规模撤离。\n\n市场为何突然降温？\n\n一是近期数据显示，24小时内全市场爆仓规模大幅上升（数亿美元量级），同时总未平仓头寸有所回落，说明资金在短时间内被强制平仓或主动撤出。衍生品市场去杠杆会迅速放大下跌：一部分被动爆仓造成价格进一步下探，触发更多自动清算，形成自放大下行。\n二是面对稳定币风险和高波动，做市商、套利基金会收缩盘口、撤回挂单或提高点差（尤其在 DeFi 与小众 DEX 上更明显），导致买盘稀疏、卖压更容易把价格推低——这在链上订单簿深度与 DEX 交易量中都有体现。新闻对“流动性收缩”和部分交易所/协议监测到的异常流动性问题已有报道。\n三是近期关于 ETF 批准窗口、监管机关动作（及市场对其可能介入/限制的担忧）使得机构资金变得谨慎。特别是 ETF/监管节奏有不确定性时，机构会倾向于减仓以等待规则明朗，进而减少买方支撑。相关讨论在近期关于 ETF 批准与监管节奏的报道中频繁出现。\n\n冰点中孕育机会\n\n短期看，恐惧情绪带来的是抛压和观望：\n新项目难获关注；\n主流币交投量下降；\n机构与散户同步避险。\n\n但长期看，极度恐惧往往孕育底部信号。\n历史上每一次指数跌破20，都对应了中长期的布局窗口，比如：2022年FTX暴雷时，恐惧指数在12附近，BTC后续从15,000美元反弹至30,000美元；\n2023年黑天鹅期间跌到10，结果半年后BTC翻倍。\n所以，「恐惧」有时候反而是聪明资金的“进场信号灯”。\n\n对比历史：每一次“极度恐惧”之后，市场都发生了什么？\n2020年3月，疫情暴跌时恐惧指数跌到8，BTC在5000美元附近。三个月后，价格翻倍。\n\n2022年11月，FTX崩盘时恐惧指数跌到12，BTC在1.5万美元。四个月后涨到3万美元。\n\n2023年8月，加息周期末期恐惧指数17，BTC在2.5万美元。三个月后反弹至4.2万美元。\n\n现在，2025年11月，恐惧指数14，BTC在5.8万美元。拐点是否又在酝酿？\n\n历史告诉我们：\n 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INX TGE前瞻：Patron NFT持有者获赠10万枚代币，跨链DeFi生态再升级》\n\n哈世链闻消息，跨链聚合 #DeFi平台 #Infinex 宣布即将启动 #INX代币 生成事件（TGE），#PatronNFT 持有者将按 1:100,000 比例空投 10 万枚 #INX，同时平台通过 #Sonar 销售和 #Craterun 活动进一步分发代币。\n本文将围绕 #INX 项目基础信息、治理机制、竞品对比及风险等进行通俗解读。\n\n项目基础信息\n\n项目简介\n#Infinex 是一个定位“超级 #crypto 应用”的平台，旨在将 #跨链聚合、#去中心化交易、#钱包管理、#桥接（bridge）、#交易终端、钱包扩展等功能整合到一个产品里，由 Kain Warwick（曾为 Synthetix 联合创始人）领导。 \n其主张：借助多条链、抽象 gas、极简用户体验，让用户能够像用集中式交易所（CEX）那样方便，又同时保有去中心化、自主控制钱包资产的体验。 \n\nINX 代币基本参数\n\n代币名称：#INX（也称 #INX代币）\n\n总供应量（或上限）：根据 Infinex 官方披露，流传关于 “10 b（10 0 亿）枚” 的数字，即 100 亿枚。\n空投/分发机制：Infinex 表示其 TGE（代币生成事件）将来：“100 % 的供应分配给 Patrons（Patron NFT 持有者）”这一说法。 \n具体为：总共有 100,000 个 Patron NFT，每一个将获得 100,000 枚 INX。 \n同时 uPatron 持有者（微型版本 NFT）将按 1:10 的比例获得 INX。 \n团队持有份额：官方披露团队份额占总量约 20%。\n团队代币将锁定 12 个月，然后再线性释放 12 个月。\n\n初始发行时间 / TGE 时间：尚无公开精确日期，仅知 “TGE 即将到来” 的声明发布于 2025 年11月。 \n初始发行价：官方披露并未给出一个明确的公开发行价数字，而在其 “Craterun 奖励”文中提到“基于 Patron NFT 价格，隐含 INX 价格约 5 美分（$0.05）” 的印象。 \n上线平台 / 支持链：Infinex 表示其将在 TGE 第一日支持三条新链：Monad、MegaEth、Fogo。 \n\n代币用途：\n\n持有 Patron NFT 可获 INX；\nINX 被用于平台激励分发、用户活动奖励；\n根据 Infinex 的叙述，INX 还用于捕获平台收入（例如通过平台产生的手续费或利润回购代币）以支持代币价值。\n\n是否有销毁机制 / 铸币增发机制 / 动态调节供应：\n官方披露中 没有明确提到销毁机制（burn）。\n关于是否增发或动态调节供应，目前披露为 “总供应量固定100 亿枚” 的表述，暂未见公开说明后续增发。\n也未明确提到减半、回购销毁等机制。\n\n流通量 / 初始流通盘比例 / FDV：\n因尚未 TGE，上线前流通量数据尚不可见。官方称分配给 Patron NFT，即 100 000 个 NFT × 100 000 枚 = 10 亿枚分配给 Patrons，其余供应（如 90 亿枚）可能由 Treasury／激励池／团队持有。\n\n核心亮点：\n多链支持 + 跨链抽象 gas 体验：Infinex 强调支持新链、桥接、无痛转移资产。\n公平分发机制：利用 NFT + Craterun 等活动让更多用户进入分发机制，而非传统 VC 私募。\n团队承诺锁仓机制：团队持币锁定 12 个月＋12 个月线性释放，体现一定长期绑定意愿。\n平台设计定位：尝试将去中心化钱包/交易体验与 CEX 体验融合，降低用户进入门槛。\n\n是否存在砸盘风险 / 价格稳定机制：\n由于尚未大规模流通，早期代币持有者（如 Patron NFT 持有者）若解锁即卖出，存在较大抛售压力。\n官方提及将用“平台收入回购代币”机制（Revenue → Buy‑Back）来支撑代币。\n但未见完整披露明确的价格稳定机制（例如锁仓期、回购比例、销毁机制）细节。\n\n合规风险：\n虽然项目在宣传中强调支持多链、新链、抽象 gas，但目前尚无明确披露其合规机制（如是否在特定地区注册）且新链支持本身带来技术与法律风险。\n如果代币被认定为证券或金融产品，可能受限当地法律监管。\n\n解锁风险：\n团队锁仓虽有明确机制，但早期持有者（如 Patron NFT 持有者）解锁期安排是否透明、是否有提前售卖风险仍需观察。\n倘若大量 Patron NFT 持有者在解锁后同步抛售，可能对价格造成下行压力。\n\nInfinex 的 INX 项目目前处于“预发行／TGE前”阶段，核心亮点聚焦于跨链 UX、用户分发及社区机制。但由于尚未完全上线披露，很多关键参数仍处于预设状态。\n\n治理机制\nPatron NFT 持有者：Infinex 表示该 NFT 持有者是获取 INX 的主要方式之一。 \n治理模型：根据 OakResearch 整理，Patron NFT 持有者将通过选举方式选出一个“委员会（council）”，由该委员会代表持有者执行治理决策（如选择资产、协议功能、技术路线）而非每一次都让全体持有者直接 vote。 \n决策方向包括：资产上线、功能实现、协议方向等。Patron NFT 作为治理身份凭证。\n代币治理权：目前尚无公开资料显示 INX 代币本身是否赋予投票权、权益参与等；主要治理权似乎与Patron NFT 关联。\n治理激励机制：平台通过 Crate Run、活动获取用户参与权，并通过这些方式扩大社区参与度。\n \n整体来看，治理机制试图结合 NFT + 代币分发＋用户参与，但具体运作细节（如委员会选举机制、代币持有者权利、提案机制、否决机制）尚未完全公开，仍需进一步观察。\n\n竞品对比\n为了更好理解 Infinex 所处的位置，我们选取两类竞品进行对比：跨链聚合／交易体验型项目，以及传统交易所代币／平台代币。\n竞品 A：跨链聚合／交易体验型\n\n1inch Network／其代币 1INCH：作为跨链聚合器＋ DEX 路由器，用户可通过代币参与治理、手续费返还等。\nParaswap 等同类聚合器。\n对比 Infinex 的优势与劣势：\n优势：Infinex 着重将“钱包”、“交易终端”、“桥接聚合”融合，并强调用户体验（UX）与多链支持，目标不仅仅是一个路由器。\n劣势：1inch 等已有成熟生态、用户基础、路由量，Infinex 为新项目，尚需证明其技术落地、用户增长及聚合效果。\n竞品 B：平台代币/交易所代币\nBNB (Binance 币)：用于交易所手续费折扣、生态建设、回购销毁。\n\nInfinex 的 INX 更偏项目生态代币＋社区分发机制，而不是传统交易所代币。其亮点在于“公平分发＋NFT ＋平台收入回购”。但传统交易所代币通常有成熟市场、流动性、较高认知度，Infinex 需努力建立信任与生态。\n\nInfinex 在“用户体验＋跨链＋公平分发”三大方向有亮点，若能成功落地，与上述竞品相比有差异化优势。但挑战也显著——生态是否能快速获取用户、技术是否稳定、代币分发机制是否公平、市场能否接受其新模式等。\n\n风险提示\n在考虑投资或参与该项目之前，需重点关注以下风险：\n流动性与抛售风险\n早期 NFT 持有者获得较大份额（每个 Patron NFT 可获 100,000 枚 INX），若解锁后集中出售，可能对价格造成冲击。\n虽团队锁仓机制明确，但其它持有者锁仓情况尚未披露。\n\n代币模型未完全落实风险\n虽然宣称“平台收入回购代币”作为价值支撑，但未见完整公开回购机制、回购比例、销毁计划等。\n若代币仅作奖励分发而无明确增值机制，可能导致价值承诺难以兑现。\n合规／监管风险\n项目跨链、全球化、涉及 NFT + 代币分发，可能受到各国证券法、税务法、KYC/AML 问题影响。\n若代币被认定为证券，可能被监管机构约束。\n生态执行风险\nInfinex 的愿景较大（多链支持、抽象 gas、钱包+终端一体化），但技术实现、用户获取、市场竞争均为挑战。若用户增长未达预期，代币价值支撑将受影响。\n竞品众多，用户迁移成本高。若体验不如预期，可能难以突破。\n解锁时间表透明度风险\n团队锁仓期明确，但 NFT 持有者、激励池、早期投资者解锁条款不一定完全透明。解锁后的大规模抛售可能带来负面冲击。\n价格波动与市场风险\n新代币上线初期，市场对其认知、流动性、支持者信心尚在建设中，价格极易波动。投资者需承受较高波动风险。\n\n请注意：本文仅为信息整理与分析，不构成任何投资建议。","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,151],"entities":{"hashtags":[{"indices":[36,43],"text":"史上最长停摆"},{"indices":[36,43],"text":"史上最长停摆"},{"indices":[253,257],"text":"比特币"},{"indices":[260,264],"text":"山寨币"},{"indices":[575,581],"text":"美联储政策"},{"indices":[800,804],"text":"BTC"},{"indices":[861,865],"text":"BTC"},{"indices":[866,870],"text":"ETH"},{"indices":[875,879],"text":"山寨币"},{"indices":[912,916],"text":"ETF"}],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E7AteEIPsI","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988906513730044122/photo/1","id_str":"1988906495644450816","indices":[152,175],"media_key":"3_1988906495644450816","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5oD64xawAAXJM3.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E7AteEIPsI","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":749,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":749,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":424,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":749,"width":1200,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":77,"w":1200,"h":672},{"x":135,"y":0,"w":749,"h":749},{"x":181,"y":0,"w":657,"h":749},{"x":322,"y":0,"w":375,"h":749},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1200,"h":749}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988906495644450816"}}},{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E7AteEIPsI","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988906513730044122/photo/1","id_str":"1988906495644430337","indices":[152,175],"media_key":"3_1988906495644430337","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5oD64xacAE6Zr8.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E7AteEIPsI","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1200,"w":848,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":1200,"w":848,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":680,"w":481,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":1200,"width":848,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":153,"w":848,"h":475},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":848},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":967},{"x":248,"y":0,"w":600,"h":1200},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":1200}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988906495644430337"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E7AteEIPsI","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988906513730044122/photo/1","id_str":"1988906495644450816","indices":[152,175],"media_key":"3_1988906495644450816","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5oD64xawAAXJM3.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E7AteEIPsI","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":749,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":749,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":424,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":749,"width":1200,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":77,"w":1200,"h":672},{"x":135,"y":0,"w":749,"h":749},{"x":181,"y":0,"w":657,"h":749},{"x":322,"y":0,"w":375,"h":749},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1200,"h":749}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988906495644450816"}}},{"display_url":"pic.x.com/E7AteEIPsI","expanded_url":"https://x.com/HashNewsHK/status/1988906513730044122/photo/1","id_str":"1988906495644430337","indices":[152,175],"media_key":"3_1988906495644430337","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5oD64xacAE6Zr8.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/E7AteEIPsI","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1200,"w":848,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":1200,"w":848,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":680,"w":481,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":1200,"width":848,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":153,"w":848,"h":475},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":848},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":967},{"x":248,"y":0,"w":600,"h":1200},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":848,"h":1200}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1988906495644430337"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988906513730044122","view_count":31,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763027239000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1624286098737483778","conversati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40 天的“#史上最长停摆”，美国政府终于确认可以恢复运作。这意味着财政部 TGA（Treasury General Account，总账户）终于可以“开闸”，释放过去几周被锁在账户中的巨额资金——大约 1 万亿美元的流动性即将重新回到市场。\n\n停摆期间，由于政府无法按计划支出，TGA 从约 3000 亿美元猛增至超过 1 万亿美元，相当于短短 40 天里把超过 7000 亿美元从市场中抽走，造成了结构性的“美元荒”。这一流动性紧缩，是导致 #比特币 和 #山寨币 在 11 月初非但守不住 10 万美元，甚至跌破 9.9 万美元的关键因素。\n值得注意的是：为什么说政府开门后，市场大概率是先跌后涨呢？原因在于两个因素的错位叠加：\n\n一个是数据黑洞引发短期恐慌，停摆导致劳工统计局（BLS）和其他关键数据部门瘫痪。9 月就业数据是“拼凑”，10 月 CPI、PPI、PCE 等通胀数据甚至可能缺失。美联储主席鲍威尔一向强调“数据驱动”（Data-Dependent），但现在“无数据可依”，导致市场无法判断未来货币政策走向。\n\n这种不确定性让华尔街交易员倾向于抛售高风险资产，市场短期出现回调，哪怕政府刚开门、流动性即将释放。\n10 月 31 日，隔夜拆借利率飙升至 4.22%，高于 #美联储政策 上限 4%，银行纷纷冲向美联储紧急窗口，总额达 503.5 亿美元，显示市场“缺钱”的恐慌真实存在。\n\n二是流动性释放尚未完全入市，虽然 TGA 1 万亿美元即将释放，但市场的“蓄水池”——RRP（逆回购工具）余额已降至不足 800 亿美元，无法吸收所有流动性。这意味着资金短期内需要寻找合适的风险资产配置，这个过程存在错配和短期震荡，导致市场先跌后涨。\n\n对于加密市场而言，政府开门带来的先跌后涨格局，有几个直接影响：\n短期波动加大：#BTC 可能会在 10万美元附近经历震荡。\n长期流动性利好：TGA 的释放会直接流入银行准备金，推动风险资产配置，包括 #BTC、#ETH 和主要 #山寨币。\nETF 和合规资金加速入场：SEC 复工后，将批准更多山寨币 #ETF，为市场注入合法资金，山寨币也会有利好。\n\n类似情况曾在历史上出现过：\n\n2013 年美国政府部分停摆：停摆结束前比特币短线下跌约 15%，停摆结束后一周内快速反弹 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Gate首发上线Play Solana现货交易\n\n哈世链闻消息，Gate将于2025年11月14日22:00（UTC+8）首发上线Play Solana (PLAYSOLANA)现货交易。\n\n$PLAYSOLANA #GateExchange #Cryptocurrency #Blockchain #Solana #CryptoTrading","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,182],"entities":{"hashtags":[{"indices":[275,290],"text":"Cryptocurrency"},{"indices":[291,302],"text":"Blockchain"},{"indices":[303,312],"text":"Coinbase"},{"indices":[313,321],"text":"Binance"}],"symbols":[{"indices":[264,269],"text":"BANK"},{"indices":[270,274],"text":"MET"}],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1988973526364364911","view_count":21,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1763043216000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1624286098737483778","conversation_id_str":"1988973526364364911","full_text":"币安交易所实时公告： 币安上线Lorenzo Protocol (BANK)和Meteora (MET)\n\n哈世链闻消息，币安推出Lorenzo Protocol (BANK)和Meteora (MET)，计划于2025年11月13日22:00上线。届时用户可通过币安理财、闪兑和一键买币等平台购买这些加密货币。用户可以使用信用卡、Google Pay、Apple Pay等方式购买，并在现货上线后一小时内开始交易。此外，这些代币可在币安的全仓、逐仓杠杆中进行支持。币安提醒用户新上币种可能波动较大，建议交易时注意风险管理。\n\n$BANK $MET #Cryptocurrency #Blockchain #Coinbase 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Internet Group 是一家金融科技（FinTech）公司，致力于打造“互联网金融基础设施”。其核心目标是将区块链、稳定币、数字资产基础设施与传统金融系统连接起来。\n\n主营业务\n主要可拆分为以下几类：\n稳定币发行与流通：公司是知名稳定币 USD Coin（USDC）的主要发行方之一，其发行、赎回、管理及流通规模是其核心资产。\n准备金／利息收入：USDC 背后的准备金（通常为现金或短期国债等低风险资产）为公司带来利息或回报。\n平台与开发者服务：公司提供 API、钱包／铸币／赎币服务，帮助开发者、金融机构、支付公司将稳定币或数字资产集成进其业务。\n区块链基础设施扩张：公司推出的 Arc Network（Layer-1 区块链）测试网、“Circle Payments Network”（CPN）支付网络等，意在构建生态平台，未来可能推出原生代币。\n\n市场与竞争环境\n市场需求：随着区块链应用（如 DeFi、链上支付、跨境结算）扩展，稳定币作为桥梁资产与链上工具地位加强。\n竞争与风险：USDC 虽具规模，但仍面临如 Tether USD（USDT）等先行者竞争；此外，监管、利率、信任机制、流通安全等均为潜在挑战。\n\n模式亮点\n网络效应：USDC 流通规模越大、链上应用越广，公司越能从中获益。\n成本／规模杠杆：稳定币规模扩大后，稀释了单位成本，提升盈利。\n长期愿景为 “互联网经济 OS”：公司管理层提出，其不仅是稳定币发行方，更定位为构建下一代互联网金融操作系统。\n\n最新业绩 &成长动能\n\nQ3 2025 财报关键数据\n根据公司披露：\nUSDC 流通规模约 737 亿美元，年增长约 108%。 \n本季度“总收入 + 储备收入”约 7.40 亿美元，同比增长约 66%。\n 净利润约 2.14 亿美元，同比增长约 202%。\n调整后 EBITDA 约 1.66 亿美元，同比增长约 78%。 \n公司宣布其 Arc 公测网已吸引 100 + 家金融或科技公司参与；正在探索推出 Arc 原生代币。 \n公司更新全年“Other Revenue”（即非储备相关收入）预期至 9000–10000 万美元。 \n\n解读：成长驱动力\n流通规模翻倍以上，说明其稳定币产品在市场上的渗透及采用显著加速。\n收入及盈利大幅增长，表明不仅规模扩大，且盈利能力初步显现。\n业务结构开始从单纯“准备金利息”向“生态／平台服务”扩展（“Other Revenue”增长、Arc／CPN 等战略项目推进）。\n虽市场反应谨慎（如因利率下降可能影响利息收益）但从经营数据看，公司成长性明显。\n\n行业地位与竞争比较\n在稳定币发行市场，USDC 是主要资产之一，且其流通规模和链上交易量都在迅速扩张。\n\n公司通过扩展支付网络、区块链生态、代币化资产服务，试图从“一张稳定币”扩展到“一个平台生态”。\n相比仅发行稳定币的机构，Circle 的优势在于构建更广泛的基础设施，但同时也承担更高成长型投资与平台构建风险。\n行业风险包括监管（如稳定币定义、合规要求）、利率环境（影响准备金收益）、技术／信任风险（储备透明度、用户信心）等。\n\n估值数据\n\n根据 StockAnalysis，当前市值约 USD 20.7 B，企业价值（EV）约 USD 21.55 B。\n主要估值比率（截至最近）：\nP/S（市销率）约 4.61 倍。 \nEV/Revenue ≈ 15.10 倍。 \nP/B（市净率）约 13.69 倍。 \n根据 SimplyWallSt：P/S 约 10.7 倍（不同数据源略有差别）且指出其较同业偏高。\n \n估值分析\n\n为便于理解，构建两个基本估值情景：保守与乐观。\n\n保守情景\n假设未来 2-3 年内，USDC 流通规模继续增长，但增长速度放缓，营收增长逐渐稳定。\n假设营收从本季度 ~0.74 亿美元 ×4（全年化约 3 亿美元）增长至 ~20 亿美元。\n假设给予 P/S 市销率约 6-8 倍。\n理论市值约 20 亿 × 6 ≈ 120 亿 美元至 20 亿 × 8 ≈ 160 亿 美元。\n若股本未变，对应每股目标价应依据当前流通股数折算。\n\n乐观情景\n假设公司生态结构成功建立，USDC 流通规模及平台服务迅猛扩张，营收增长至如 50-100 亿美元水平。\n假设给予更高 P/S 倍数，例如 10-12 倍。\n若营收达 50 亿美元 ×10 = 500 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| 深度】\n本周二（10月28日），Bitwise的Solana质押ETF (BSOL)、Canary的莱特币ETF (LTCN) 和HBAR ETF (HBAR) 将通过特殊的 “8-A文件” 形式，直接登陆纽交所和纳斯达克！\n这意味着它们 绕过了常规、漫长的SEC审批流程，实现了快速上市。这不仅是加密资产主流化的关键跃迁，更可能是一种全新的“上市范式”。 \n\n1、 什么是ETF？它为何如此重要？\n首先，让我们回归基础。ETF（Exchange-Traded Fund）即“交易所交易基金”。你可以把它想象成一个“资产篮子”，里面装着股票、债券或像黄金、比特币这样的商品。这个“篮子”本身又像股票一样，可以在证券交易所自由买卖。\n对普通投资者而言，ETF的最大优势是 “简单” 和 “合规”。\n简单：无需学习如何使用加密钱包、管理私钥，只需通过传统的股票账户就能投资加密资产。\n合规：ETF受到严格的金融监管，为机构和保守型投资者提供了安全、合规的入场通道。 \n\n2、 加密货币与ETF的结缘之路\n加密世界与ETF的首次“联姻”始于 比特币。经过长达十年的申请与等待，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）终于在 2024年1月 批准了首批比特币现货ETF。 这一事件被视为币圈的“诺曼底登陆”，它为市场带来了数百亿美元的机构资金，并直接推动了比特币价格创下历史新高。\n随后，以太坊现货ETF 也在 2025年5月 获批，进一步巩固了加密资产作为主流投资品的地位。 可以说，每一次主流币种的ETF获批，都是一次将加密市场与传统金融世界深度绑定的过程。 \n\n3、揭秘“8-A文件”：本次上市的秘密通道\n那么，为什么这次的ETF能如此之快？关键在于它们利用了 “证券法第12(b)条的8-A注册文件”。\n这是一种特殊的注册形式，通常用于将已在场外市场（OTC）交易的证券转换为主板上市公司。它允许发行方 绕过标准的S-1文件审批流程，后者正是比特币ETF耗费了数年时间才走完的漫长程序。\n这本质上是利用了现有法规的一个“巧妙后门”，是华尔街在加密领域的又一次规则创新。\n\n4、本次“闪电上市”，意味着什么？\n如果说BTC/ETH的ETF是打开了传统资金进入加密世界的大门，那么这次SOL、LTC等ETF的“闪电上市”，则 打开了通往更广阔加密生态的“高速公路”。\n资产类别的承认：这标志着监管和传统金融界不再将比特币视为唯一的“合格”加密资产。Solana这类高性能公链、莱特币这类老牌加密货币的价值得到了进一步认可。\n生态系统的繁荣：从10月28日开始，ETF将直接为Solana、Hedera等公链生态系统注入新的流动性和关注度，推动其链上应用（DeFi, NFT）的发展。\n上市范式的变革：这可能为后续其他“山寨币”ETF提供了一条全新的、更高效的上市路径，大大缩短了等待时间。 \n\n5、未来影响：我们正处在哪个阶段？\n我们正处在 “加密资产ETF化” 的加速阶段。本次事件预示着一个清晰的未来趋势：\n更多“山寨币”ETF将涌现：瑞波币（XRP）、卡尔达诺（ADA）等拥有场外信托产品的币种，很可能效仿这一路径，寻求快速上市。\n投资组合多样化：投资者将能像配置不同行业的股票一样，轻松地在投资组合中配置不同的加密资产，以分散风险。\n市场成熟度提升：随着监管框架的完善和更多合规产品的出现，加密市场的波动性可能逐渐降低，市场行为将更加理性。\n\n6、总结：一个新时代的序幕\n从比特币的十年长跑到如今Solana的“闪电”登陆，ETF正在以超乎预期的速度重塑加密货币的投资版图。\n10月28日，将作为“山寨币”ETF时代开启的日子被载入史册。它不仅是资金的入口，更是加密资产获得全球金融体系认可的“通行证”，而“8-A文件”则成为了这张通行证的“快速通道”。\n作为市场的见证者，我们正在亲历历史。\n\n#加密货币 #ETF #Solana #Crypto #美股 #区块链 #Web3 #sol #Hedera #LTC #Altcoin #SEC","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,32],"entities":{"hashtags":[{"indices":[328,343],"text":"Cryptocurrency"},{"indices":[344,355],"text":"Blockchain"},{"indices":[356,360],"text":"BTC"}],"symbols":[{"indices":[312,316],"text":"BTC"},{"indices":[317,321],"text":"PRE"},{"indices":[322,327],"text":"EXOD"}],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"zh","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982998397780144186","view_count":13,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761618635000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"1624286098737483778","conversation_id_str":"1982998397780144186","full_text":"贝克汉姆支持的Prenetics筹集4800万美元促进比特币储备\n\n哈世链闻消息，由大卫·贝克汉姆投资的健康科学公司Prenetics（PRE）通过一轮超额认购的股权融资筹集4800万美元，资金将用于拓展其健康品牌IM8，并推进比特币储备策略。公司公告称，通过行使认股权证，总融资额可能达到2.16亿美元。该轮融资吸引了Kraken、Exodus（EXOD）、GPTX和American Ventures等投资者。首席执行官Danny Yeung表示，这些资金将帮助IM8实现全球扩张，同时每日积累1枚比特币，以期在五年内实现收入和比特币持有量均达10亿美元的目标。目前，公司拥有268.4枚比特币，价值3090万美元。\n\n$BTC $PRE $EXOD #Cryptocurrency #Blockchain 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| 深度】\n本周二（10月28日），Bitwise的Solana质押ETF (BSOL)、Canary的莱特币ETF (LTCN) 和HBAR ETF (HBAR) 将通过特殊的 “8-A文件” 形式，直接登陆纽交所和纳斯达克！\n这意味着它们 绕过了常规、漫长的SEC审批流程，实现了快速上市。这不仅是加密资产主流化的关键跃迁，更可能是一种全新的“上市范式”。 \n\n1、 什么是ETF？它为何如此重要？\n首先，让我们回归基础。ETF（Exchange-Traded Fund）即“交易所交易基金”。你可以把它想象成一个“资产篮子”，里面装着股票、债券或像黄金、比特币这样的商品。这个“篮子”本身又像股票一样，可以在证券交易所自由买卖。\n对普通投资者而言，ETF的最大优势是 “简单” 和 “合规”。\n简单：无需学习如何使用加密钱包、管理私钥，只需通过传统的股票账户就能投资加密资产。\n合规：ETF受到严格的金融监管，为机构和保守型投资者提供了安全、合规的入场通道。 \n\n2、 加密货币与ETF的结缘之路\n加密世界与ETF的首次“联姻”始于 比特币。经过长达十年的申请与等待，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）终于在 2024年1月 批准了首批比特币现货ETF。 这一事件被视为币圈的“诺曼底登陆”，它为市场带来了数百亿美元的机构资金，并直接推动了比特币价格创下历史新高。\n随后，以太坊现货ETF 也在 2025年5月 获批，进一步巩固了加密资产作为主流投资品的地位。 可以说，每一次主流币种的ETF获批，都是一次将加密市场与传统金融世界深度绑定的过程。 \n\n3、揭秘“8-A文件”：本次上市的秘密通道\n那么，为什么这次的ETF能如此之快？关键在于它们利用了 “证券法第12(b)条的8-A注册文件”。\n这是一种特殊的注册形式，通常用于将已在场外市场（OTC）交易的证券转换为主板上市公司。它允许发行方 绕过标准的S-1文件审批流程，后者正是比特币ETF耗费了数年时间才走完的漫长程序。\n这本质上是利用了现有法规的一个“巧妙后门”，是华尔街在加密领域的又一次规则创新。\n\n4、本次“闪电上市”，意味着什么？\n如果说BTC/ETH的ETF是打开了传统资金进入加密世界的大门，那么这次SOL、LTC等ETF的“闪电上市”，则 打开了通往更广阔加密生态的“高速公路”。\n资产类别的承认：这标志着监管和传统金融界不再将比特币视为唯一的“合格”加密资产。Solana这类高性能公链、莱特币这类老牌加密货币的价值得到了进一步认可。\n生态系统的繁荣：从10月28日开始，ETF将直接为Solana、Hedera等公链生态系统注入新的流动性和关注度，推动其链上应用（DeFi, NFT）的发展。\n上市范式的变革：这可能为后续其他“山寨币”ETF提供了一条全新的、更高效的上市路径，大大缩短了等待时间。 \n\n5、未来影响：我们正处在哪个阶段？\n我们正处在 “加密资产ETF化” 的加速阶段。本次事件预示着一个清晰的未来趋势：\n更多“山寨币”ETF将涌现：瑞波币（XRP）、卡尔达诺（ADA）等拥有场外信托产品的币种，很可能效仿这一路径，寻求快速上市。\n投资组合多样化：投资者将能像配置不同行业的股票一样，轻松地在投资组合中配置不同的加密资产，以分散风险。\n市场成熟度提升：随着监管框架的完善和更多合规产品的出现，加密市场的波动性可能逐渐降低，市场行为将更加理性。\n\n6、总结：一个新时代的序幕\n从比特币的十年长跑到如今Solana的“闪电”登陆，ETF正在以超乎预期的速度重塑加密货币的投资版图。\n10月28日，将作为“山寨币”ETF时代开启的日子被载入史册。它不仅是资金的入口，更是加密资产获得全球金融体系认可的“通行证”，而“8-A文件”则成为了这张通行证的“快速通道”。\n作为市场的见证者，我们正在亲历历史。\n\n#加密货币 #ETF #Solana #Crypto #美股 #区块链 #Web3 #sol #Hedera #LTC 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不等，为投资者提供心理预期参考，但不应视为保证。\n\n3、比特币生态的变化\n\n近年来，比特币生态呈现“链上百花齐放”的特征。虽然以太坊和 Solana 的 DeFi、NFT 生态发展更活跃，但比特币正在悄然升级基础设施。闪电网络扩展通道数量已突破 5 万条，总容量达到 2,200 BTC，这意味着比特币在小额支付和跨链价值传输方面的能力正稳步提升。同时，多家主要交易所和支付平台已支持闪电网络支付，提升了链上实际应用价值。\n\n长期持币地址稳步增加，显示市场认同比特币价值储存功能。同时，跨链桥、Layer‑2 协议及机构金融产品的出现，让比特币生态开始逐步承载更多金融功能和应用场景。\n\n4、比特币生态的出路\n\n比特币生态的未来不在于简单模仿其他公链开发大量链上应用，而在于强化自身独有优势：稀缺性、安全性和可信价值。其出路主要有三条方向：第一，巩固价值储存和抗审查特性，使比特币成为全球可信资产；第二，通过闪电网络和 Layer‑2 技术提升可扩展性和流动性，使比特币价值能够在更广泛的生态中流动；第三，通过 ETF、战略资产配置和金融化应用，将比特币进一步嵌入主流金融体系，形成制度性支撑。\n\n这些路径让比特币能够在链上百花齐放的环境中形成独特生态优势，而非单纯追求链上应用数量。比特币的生态定位正在从“数字黄金”向“可信价值基础设施 + 金融化资产”转型，这种独特性正成为其在未来市场竞争中的核心优势。\n\n5、总结\n\n四年周期仍是理解比特币价格波动的重要参考，但在当前市场结构和机构化趋势下，其节奏和高点可能不再像历史上那样精准。市场情绪回暖、长期持币者占比增加，加上机构资金流入，为牛市提供潜在动力，但宏观经济和政策风险依然存在。比特币生态也在加速演进，通过基础设施升级、金融化应用以及闪电网络扩展，正走出一条与其他公链不同的独特道路。在链上百花齐放的时代，比特币的稀缺性、可信性和基础设施优势，将决定其在数字资产格局中的未来位置。\n\n#BTC #Halving #BTCcycle #Macro #ETF #机构化 #Ordinals #BRC20 #Layer2 #牛市 #投资分析 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