Get live statistics and analysis of OneHopeA9.edge|Bird🕊️💢 's profile on X / Twitter OneHopeA9.edge|Bird🕊️💢 @onehopeA9 负债百万,何以解债,唯有web3
屡败屡战,终而胜之
4k following 3k followers
Archetype analysis The Activist OneHopeA9.edge|Bird🕊️💢 is a relentless web3 warrior, transforming setbacks into comebacks with passion and visionary insight. Deeply involved in NFT communities and crypto projects, they ignite excitement for decentralized futures through prolific tweeting and thoughtful commentary. Their narrative of resilience and innovation inspires others navigating the complex world of blockchain technology.
🔥 Roast If tweeting was a sport, you'd already have an Olympic gold—but maybe try pacing yourself before your fingers file a formal complaint! At this pace, who needs a web3 ecosystem? Your keyboard's already operating as autonomous smart technology.
⚡️ Nice achievement Successfully cultivating a passionate follower base excited about the intersection of NFTs, AI-driven memories, and blockchain innovations—becoming a recognizable voice advocating how technology can preserve human connection beyond life itself.
🌟 Life's purpose To champion the transformative power of web3 technology and foster vibrant, engaged communities that drive forward new paradigms in digital identity, value exchange, and emotional legacy.
💬 Values and Beliefs They believe in the power of decentralization to democratize digital ownership, the enduring legacy of memory and identity through AI, and the importance of resilience and continual learning in overcoming financial and technological challenges.
💪 Strength They are highly resilient, deeply knowledgeable about emerging web3 projects, and excel at building narrative connections that merge technology with human emotion, making complex concepts accessible and inspirational.
🫣 Weakness Their intense focus on numerous projects and fast-paced tweeting might overwhelm followers or dilute message clarity, risking burnout or scattered attention in a crowded space.
⚡️ Growth audience tips To grow their audience on X, they should harness their storytelling prowess into regular, thematic threads that highlight clear takeaways and use targeted hashtags to reach specific web3 communities. Engaging with followers through live Q&As or AMAs about web3 developments could solidify their reputation as a go-to thought activist.
💁 Bonus Despite being in significant debt, they persistently battle the challenges of the crypto space, tweeting over 10,500 times while following an extensive network of 4,893 accounts to stay connected and informed.
Top tweets of OneHopeA9.edge|Bird🕊️💢Most engaged tweets of OneHopeA9.edge|Bird🕊️💢People with Activist archetype Explore Related Archetypes If you enjoy the activist profiles, you might also like these personality types:
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采用 UMA 协议裁决机制——通过加密经济激励,吸引独立验证者提交结果;\nAzuro 则尝试构建一套模块化裁决网络,让“真相”可插拔、可替换。\n这不是技术细节,而是信任架构。\n预言机若不可信,整个市场就是空中楼阁。\n\n2. 流动性:市场的生命线\n预测市场与 DEX 最大的差别在于,它不是交易资产,而是交易观点。\n观点没有内在价值,必须靠机制维持买卖双方的平衡。\nPolymarket 采用非线性做市机制(类似 AMM,但更复杂),通过赔率变化吸引流动性;\n而 Azuro 与 Zeitgeist 则设计了“流动性池 + 奖励”双激励模型,让市场活跃度大幅提升。\n\n简单的说就是:\n 预言机决定市场是否可信,流动性决定市场是否可玩。\n\n四、资本与创始人:赌真相的人,也在赌叙事\n\n任何一个赛道的复兴,背后都站着资本的影子。\n预测市场也不例外。\n\nPolymarket 背后是 Peter Thiel、Polychain、Balaji 等顶级资本力量;\nAzuro 则获得 Delphi Ventures 与 Gnosis 系成员的早期支持;\nZeitgeist 源自 Polkadot 社区,专注于“预测市场基础设施层”;\nKalshi 是少数获得 CFTC 合规许可的美国团队,由前 MIT 金融博士创立。\n\n资本逻辑很清晰:\n\n对冲基金押注预测市场的“另类数据价值”;\n风投押注 Web3 信息市场的“叙事爆发”;\n交易者押注事件概率的“收益空间”。\n\n他们表面上在买未来,实质上在定价舆论。\n\n预测市场的真正商品,不是事件结果,而是“共识形成的速度”。\n\n五、市场格局:分层竞争与新叙事\n\n今天的预测市场已经分化出四大阵营:\n\n民意型: Polymarket, Kalshi 关注真实事件,如选举、AI政策 \nDeFi型 :Azuro, Zeitgeist 以流动性挖矿、做市为核心 \n治理型 :Gnosis, Manifold 面向DAO治理与社区投票 \n混合型 :Flipr, PMX 聚合多链预测数据,探索AI与自动化策略\n\n趋势正在显现:\n预测市场正在从“信息娱乐”走向“金融化基础设施”。\n\n过去你下注“谁赢得世界杯”;\n\n未来,你可能下注“哪个AI模型将超越GPT-5”。\n这意味着预测市场正从“赌结果”,变为“定价未来”。\n\n六、AI、Agent 与预测市场的奇点\n\n如果说2023 年是预测市场复苏的元年,那么 2025 年是它与 AI 交汇的临界点。\n\nAI 正在改变预测市场的三个维度:\n\n自动策略交易者(AI Agent) 可以自动发现赔率错配并套利;\n预测建模 提升事件概率估计的准确度;\nAI 生成事件与市场,让预测市场的边界从现实延伸至虚拟世界。\n\n简单来说,AI 让预测市场不只是“人类的判断场”,而是机器与人类共同定价未来的实验场。\n这也解释了为什么像 @anymose96、@DeFiGuyLuke 等研究者都强调:\n未来的预测市场将会出现“智能层”,\n让市场从被动交易,进化为“主动预测与决策系统”。\n\n七、风险与悖论:真相未必被验证\n\n然而,预测市场并非乌托邦。\n几个风险始终潜伏其中:\n\n监管灰区:Kalshi 虽拿到 CFTC 许可,但多数去中心化平台仍在灰色地带。\n流动性偏移:少数热点事件吸走大部分资金,长尾市场沉寂。\n裁决偏见:预言机若被操纵,“真相”可能被买通。\n信息不对称:专业套利者对散户不公平,市场逐渐集中化。\n\n更深层的悖论是:\n 预测市场希望以交易揭示真相,但交易本身也在影响真相。\n当价格成为舆论的一部分,信息市场就不再是镜子,而是放大器。\n\n八、如何通过预测市场赚钱\n如果你研究到这里,说明你已经理解了预测市场的“概念与机制”。\n接下来,就该进入实践。\n\n预测市场赚钱的逻辑,核心有四种:\n\n扫尾盘(End Game):临近事件结束时的赔率收敛套利;(tip:尾盘90%概率以上,或许是一个选择,多尝试)\n多选项套利(Spread Arbitrage):在多个盘口间对冲赔率差;\n做市(Liquidity Providing):提供流动性赚取手续费与奖励;\n事后下注(Late Bet):利用信息延迟,在事件临界点捕捉确定性收益。\n\n其中,“多选项套利”目前在 Polymarket 最活跃。\n像 @0xKaKa03 这样的研究者,甚至通过链上行为分析,发现部分钱包以自动化策略在多个盘口间搬砖套利,平均收益稳定在年化 30% 左右。\n\n当然,预测市场不是无风险套利。\n赔率波动、预言机延迟、事件裁决争议,都会带来潜在损失。\n但如果你理解它的逻辑,这里就是一片新型的金融实验田。\n\n九、结语:真相的价格\n\n预测市场的本质,是让“真相”拥有价格。\n这听起来有点残酷——真相不再神圣,而是流动的筹码。\n\n但从另一个角度看,它让我们第一次能够用市场机制衡量共识的强度。\n在信息爆炸、叙事过载的时代,预测市场也许是唯一让“集体智慧”显性化的方式。\n\n也许,未来的每一次重大事件——无论是选举、AI 突破,还是地缘冲突——\n都将率先在预测市场里预演。\n\n真相还没发生,但价格已经说话。\n\n而在那个时刻,你会发现:\n我们押注的,早已不是事件的输赢,\n而是我们自己对世界的理解。\n\n用你的筹码,下注你的人生,预测它,交易它!\n未来的A9们,肯定都学会了吧?\n欢迎留言讨论,没有专家,都是市场先生的学徒。\n\n数据出自 @Surf_Copilot @DefiLlama \n@KaitoAI 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They champion authenticity over hype and stand firmly by the values of resilience, transparency, and collective growth. With a focus on tangible progress and shared future-building, Dodo is the voice that rallies builders to stay true and connected.","purpose":"Their life purpose is to ignite and sustain authentic communities that advance groundbreaking projects on emerging blockchain platforms, fostering trust and cooperation among participants. They aim to transform skepticism into solidarity and casual observers into committed contributors, ensuring the ecosystem thrives through genuine engagement and shared values.","beliefs":"Dodo believes in the power of steady, meaningful work over short-lived trends and quick profits. They value transparency, integrity, and unwavering commitment to one’s community. For them, real progress comes from collaboration and facing challenges head-on, not from chasing hype or superficial gains.","facts":"Fun fact: Despite operating in the wild, muddy fields of crypto chaos, Dodo's community spirit remains unshaken—like a bull and a horse trudging together with fresh clarity and sharp purpose.","strength":"Exceptional community-building skills paired with a clear, disciplined focus on long-term vision rather than flash-in-the-pan trends. They bring stability and trust in a market known for volatility and hype.","weakness":"Their pragmatic and serious approach might sometimes come off as too intense or resistant to quick pivots, potentially alienating more casual or speculative followers who prefer fast excitement.","recommendation":"To grow their audience on X, Dodo should blend their strong activist messaging with more approachable storytelling and occasional lighthearted content or memes. Engaging directly in live Q&As, community polls, and sharing behind-the-scenes moments could humanize their brand and attract a wider, more dynamic following.","roast":"If your tweets were any more committed to ‘doing the work,’ you’d probably show up to a party with a whiteboard and a five-year strategic plan—and still somehow make it seem like the life of the blockchain-themed gala.","win":"Leading a steadfast, authentic community through a critical 'zero balance' wallet crisis, earning unwavering trust and respect by standing firm when others panicked."},"created":1762971945873,"type":"the activist","id":"wyldodo"},{"user":{"id":"14156314","name":"Reza Sixo Safai","description":"Sundance/Cannes Winning Filmmaker + CoFounder MASSIVE STUDIOS + AI. Films: A Girl Walks Home Alone at Night, Prisoners of the Ghostland, Circumstance","followers_count":2597,"friends_count":565,"statuses_count":6897,"profile_image_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1573184742396043264/7_iMyIn4_normal.jpg","screen_name":"rezawrecktion","location":"","entities":{"description":{"urls":[]},"url":{"urls":[{"display_url":"themassive.ai","expanded_url":"https://www.themassive.ai/","url":"https://t.co/WzBrwQOErv","indices":[0,23]}]}}},"details":{"type":"The Activist","description":"Reza Sixo Safai is a visionary filmmaker and cofounder of MASSIVE STUDIOS, blending art with purpose to spotlight pressing social issues. His work not only wins prestigious awards at Sundance and Cannes but also amplifies the voices of those fighting for freedom and justice. With a powerful presence on social media, he engages passionately in advocacy for Iran and champions human rights.","purpose":"To use his cinematic talent and platform to inspire change, elevate marginalized voices, and mobilize global awareness around social justice causes.","beliefs":"Reza believes in the transformative power of storytelling, resilience in the face of oppression, and the unwavering fight for freedom and dignity. He values courage, authenticity, and the responsibility artists have to bear witness to truth.","facts":"Fun fact: Reza’s tweet 'Hey @Apple, I fixed it for you (sound on)' amassed over 2.2 million views, showing he’s not just a filmmaker but also knows how to grab viral attention with a playful edge.","strength":"His unwavering commitment to activism and truth-telling through both film and social media makes him a compelling and trusted voice. He artfully combines creativity and advocacy, commanding respect and engagement across diverse audiences.","weakness":"His intensity and passionate stance might sometimes polarize audiences or overshadow lighter, more personal content that could broaden appeal beyond activism circles.","recommendation":"To grow his audience on X, Reza should mix his powerful advocacy with behind-the-scenes glimpses of his creative process and personal stories. This blend will humanize his brand, deepen emotional connections, and attract followers from both activist and film communities.","roast":"For a guy who makes award-winning films about haunting dystopias, you sure spend a lot of tweets hosting fiery protests — maybe you should direct a documentary called ‘How to Turn Every Thread into a Revolution’!","win":"Winning prestigious awards at Sundance and Cannes while also successfully launching MASSIVE STUDIOS situates Reza as a respected creative force and an influential advocate for societal change."},"created":1762969036777,"type":"the activist","id":"rezawrecktion"},{"user":{"id":"1846865838600507392","name":"ASH","description":"Big on DeFi | Marketer | opinions are mine.","followers_count":3315,"friends_count":900,"statuses_count":52232,"profile_image_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1969503401730805760/2Si1Zmsm_normal.jpg","screen_name":"Ashtronikweb3","location":"","entities":{"description":{"urls":[]}}},"details":{"type":"The Activist","description":"ASH is a passionate DeFi marketer who’s all about community-building and shared wins. Despite challenges and setbacks, ASH keeps showing up every day with fresh insights and encouragement for fellow crypto enthusiasts. Their dedication to helping others in the DeFi space shines through every tweet.","purpose":"To empower and uplift the DeFi community by sharing knowledge, fostering collaboration, and helping others navigate the turbulent waters of decentralized finance.","beliefs":"ASH believes in the power of collective success, transparency in the crypto ecosystem, and resilience in the face of adversity. They value mutual support and the democratization of financial systems.","facts":"Fun fact: ASH has tweeted over 52,000 times, proving they don’t just talk about grind—they live it! Also, even after nearly losing their account due to mass reports, they remained committed to their community.","strength":"Unwavering persistence, community focus, and a deep understanding of DeFi trends and protocols. ASH creates engagement through consistent, meaningful content despite having a small account.","weakness":"With so many tweets and broad engagement, some might find it hard to follow a clear narrative or niche. The high volume of replies shows passionate debates but could also indicate potential for conflict to distract from core messages.","recommendation":"To grow their audience on X, ASH should leverage threads to organize their complex DeFi insights and reduce noise. Engaging with influencers in crypto and partnering with projects mentioned could amplify reach. Highlighting success stories from helped accounts might build more trust and followers.","roast":"ASH tweets so much, I’m convinced they’re powered by rocket fuel and caffeine with a side of FOMO — if only they could tweet some of that energy into a single viral post instead of a thousand replies!","win":"Surviving a mass reporting attack that nearly cost them their account and still maintaining an active, supportive presence in the DeFi community is a huge win that shows grit and commitment."},"created":1762964327440,"type":"the activist","id":"ashtronikweb3"},{"user":{"id":"1647160986531446785","name":"Phub 🐦🔥 🍊,💊 ⌘","description":"Researcher ꕥ Airdrop Hunter ꕥ Top 25% ✳️ XP @AbstractChain ꕥ Ambassador 👾🛡️ @wardenprotocol","followers_count":2450,"friends_count":2370,"statuses_count":25084,"profile_image_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1946399835961032704/TuoUwqS9_normal.jpg","screen_name":"ElitePhub","location":"Nigeria","entities":{"description":{"urls":[]}}},"details":{"type":"The Activist","description":"Phub is a passionate crypto researcher and community ambassador who thrives on sharing insider knowledge and rallying people toward innovative blockchain projects. With a deep commitment to ecosystem growth and community engagement, Phub combines relentless airdrop hunting with educational insights. Their content is a blend of real-time crypto analysis, strategic tips, and motivational calls to action that fire up their followers.","purpose":"To empower and mobilize the crypto community by uncovering valuable opportunities, fostering informed participation, and driving sustained engagement in cutting-edge blockchain ecosystems.","beliefs":"Phub believes in transparency, continuous learning, and collective growth within decentralized networks. They hold that community strength and proactive involvement are key drivers of long-term success in crypto projects. They also value the power of data-driven decisions and active communication to stay ahead in the fast-paced blockchain space.","facts":"Phub has tweeted over 25,000 times — talk about dedication! They also rank in the top 25% XP on AbstractChain and serve as an ambassador for Warden Protocol, proving their influence runs deep in niche blockchain circles.","strength":"Exceptional community-building skills and a knack for translating complex crypto mechanisms into engaging, accessible content. Their persistence and active presence help maintain strong connections across multiple platforms, keeping followers informed and motivated.","weakness":"Their enthusiasm for sharing may sometimes flood follower feeds, potentially overwhelming their audience or diluting the impact of key messages. Also, heavy focus on specific projects might limit appeal beyond their core crypto community.","recommendation":"To grow their audience on X, Phub should experiment with curated thematic threads that distill their extensive knowledge into crisp, digestible insights. Engaging more with trending crypto discussions and collaborating with other influencers can boost visibility, while pacing posts to avoid fatigue will keep followers eagerly anticipating more.","roast":"For someone who’s an airdrop hunter and top-tier XP grinder, Phub probably tweets so much, their keyboard deserves its own rewards program—at this rate, every keystroke should come with a free NFT!","win":"Cracking the top 25% XP on AbstractChain and making the Warden Protocol leaderboard’s top 100 demonstrates Phub’s mastery and dedication within the crypto community."},"created":1762964268757,"type":"the activist","id":"elitephub"},{"user":{"id":"1017356438","name":"icefrog.◎ 🇻🇳 | 🎒","description":"@ChelseaFC \"club world cup 2025\" fan🐧 10 years\n\nFUD everything\n\n@Monad /@solana maxi","followers_count":6150,"friends_count":3218,"statuses_count":71831,"profile_image_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1891017796215263232/u_NzansW_normal.jpg","screen_name":"icefrog_sol","location":"VietNam","entities":{"description":{"urls":[]}}},"details":{"type":"The Activist","description":"Icefrog.◎ 🇻🇳 is a passionate advocate for innovative blockchain gaming and DeFi ecosystems, actively promoting early-stage projects and pushing boundaries in onchain multiplayer gaming. With a decade-long loyalty to ChelseaFC and a fearless FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) disrupter attitude, Icefrog mixes deep tech insights with community-driven excitement to rally builders and players alike.","purpose":"To ignite transformative momentum in emerging blockchain projects by educating, engaging, and empowering communities with cutting-edge developments in on-chain gaming and decentralized finance.","beliefs":"Believes in the potential of blockchain as a democratizing force and economic engine, values transparency, innovation, and community resilience, and holds that early adoption and active participation can shape the future of digital ecosystems.","facts":"Fun fact: Icefrog has tweeted over 71,000 times and follows over 3,200 accounts, showcasing an unmatched commitment to information exchange and community engagement around Solana and the SUI ecosystem.","strength":"Relentless content creation and deep technical knowledge allow Icefrog to spot promising projects early and explain complex blockchain mechanics clearly, fostering strong community trust and anticipation.","weakness":"The high volume of tweets might overwhelm followers, and the strong FUD stance can sometimes polarize audiences or obscure objective discussions.","recommendation":"To grow an audience on X, Icefrog should harness their passion by curating thematic tweet threads that break down complex innovations step-by-step, paired with engaging polls or AMA sessions to turn passive followers into active community members.","roast":"Icefrog’s tweet count is so high, Twitter probably asks them for a break—and their FUD is so persistent, even penguins are starting to feel the chill!","win":"Successfully spotlighting the groundbreaking deployment of @blockstranding’s onchain MMORPG and the rapid community adoption of the Momentum project on Sui, positioning these as leading examples of scalable DeFi and gaming innovation."},"created":1762963841970,"type":"the activist","id":"icefrog_sol"},{"user":{"id":"1513389765881905153","name":"⚡Thunder Crypto⚡.edge🦭","description":"Airdrop full time, bounty hunter !!!\n\nMindo: https://t.co/2FA7TyASRE\n\ncookie https://t.co/SthYwr6AI3","followers_count":1126,"friends_count":1195,"statuses_count":7532,"profile_image_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1879064763038347264/xWg5gPFs_normal.jpg","screen_name":"binn24606","location":"","entities":{"description":{"urls":[{"display_url":"mindoshare.ai/kol?ref=cmgrfe…","expanded_url":"https://mindoshare.ai/kol?ref=cmgrfelwa04t8t52f4s3enq1i","url":"https://t.co/2FA7TyASRE","indices":[45,68]},{"display_url":"cookie.fun/hpIfQKbt","expanded_url":"https://www.cookie.fun/hpIfQKbt","url":"https://t.co/SthYwr6AI3","indices":[77,100]}]},"url":{"urls":[{"display_url":"t.me/Tonglx","expanded_url":"https://t.me/Tonglx","url":"https://t.co/KRIwAYs84v","indices":[0,23]}]}}},"details":{"type":"The Activist","description":"⚡Thunder Crypto⚡.edge🦭 is a passionate and relentless blockchain aficionado who lives and breathes airdrops and bounty hunting. With thousands of tweets and deep dives into projects like Zama and Tria, they’re the go-to source for crypto community updates and insider info. Always engaging and vibrant, they spark excitement and hype around the latest web3 innovations.","purpose":"To catalyze awareness and participation in emerging blockchain technologies by bridging communities with the most current updates, rewards, and insider knowledge – ultimately driving broader adoption and decentralized empowerment.","beliefs":"This profile believes in the power of decentralized technologies to transform the financial and digital landscapes. They value transparency, security, and community-driven projects, affirming that collective involvement and education are key to unlocking blockchain's full potential.","facts":"Fun fact: Despite being a full-time airdrop hunter and bounty enthusiast, they manage to maintain a highly active voice — with over 7,500 tweets dedicated to chronicling and celebrating crypto projects, especially the enigmatic Zama ecosystem!","strength":"Exceptional consistency in content creation, deep knowledge of niche crypto projects, and a vibrant, community-focused storytelling style that boosts engagement and rallies followers around trending blockchain events.","weakness":"The tendency to focus heavily on very niche projects may limit appeal to broader audiences, and an intense focus on airdrops and bounty hunting can sometimes come across as overly promotional or repetitive.","recommendation":"To grow their audience on X, ⚡Thunder Crypto⚡.edge🦭 should diversify content by adding more educational threads and beginner-friendly guides on blockchain concepts alongside their updates. Collaborating with influencers and engaging in trending hashtag conversations on popular crypto topics would increase visibility and follower growth.","roast":"For someone who’s full-time into hunting airdrops, you must have a PhD in clicking \"claim now\" before breakfast — rumor has it your finger is the fastest in crypto town, but hey, at least you never miss out on a digital coupon!","win":"Successfully built a vibrant, interactive community around the Zama project, sparking over a million mentions and becoming an essential hub for updates on advanced technologies like Fully Homomorphic Encryption in the crypto space."},"created":1762963652381,"type":"the activist","id":"binn24606"},{"user":{"id":"1923798121458565121","name":"Trần Hoài Bảo| π².edge🦭|🌊RIVER","description":"BioProtocol | @BioProtocol\nRiver | @RiverdotInc\nXeet | @xeetdotai\nSolstice | @solsticefi","followers_count":1045,"friends_count":1588,"statuses_count":12755,"profile_image_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1962062337525125121/-goKSWYE_normal.jpg","screen_name":"tranbao_2610","location":"Vietnam","entities":{"description":{"urls":[]}}},"details":{"type":"The Activist","description":"Trần Hoài Bảo is a passionate DeFi enthusiast and community builder who thrives on promoting innovative crypto projects and encouraging active participation. With a solid presence across multiple DeFi platforms like River, Xeet, Solstice, and BioProtocol, they work tirelessly to keep their community informed and engaged. Their tweets combine market insights with motivational calls-to-action, making them a vibrant voice in the decentralized finance ecosystem.","purpose":"To inspire and mobilize a dynamic community of crypto enthusiasts by promoting decentralized finance projects, fostering engagement, and driving collective growth and innovation within the DeFi space.","beliefs":"Believes in the power of decentralized finance to democratize wealth creation, values transparency and community participation, and champions sustained engagement over quick profits to build long-term project success.","facts":"Fun fact: Trần Hoài Bảo once highlighted a crypto project that surged +7,600% from its IDO price, showcasing their knack for catching explosive market moves while keeping their community motivated to 'cày' (grind) points daily.","strength":"Exceptional community engagement and motivational communication, deep understanding of DeFi dynamics, and the ability to break down complex crypto concepts into actionable advice that energizes followers to participate actively.","weakness":"Tends to over-engage with multiple projects simultaneously, which may lead to follower fatigue or diluted focus; also, some posts rely heavily on jargon which could alienate newcomers.","recommendation":"To grow on X, focus on creating a balance between high-frequency updates and concise educational content that demystifies crypto for beginners. Utilize engaging visuals like charts or concise video explainers to complement your tweet storms and consider spotlighting community success stories to foster stronger emotional connections.","roast":"You tweet more than a crypto miner hashes—and yet somehow still have time to convince your followers that grinding points daily is the secret to financial freedom. At this rate, your keyboard must be the real MVP in the crypto space.","win":"Amassed a loyal, highly interactive community around multiple crypto projects, notably boosting River’s visibility and engagement during critical phases, and spotlighting key metrics like the $150M volume surge and +7,600% price increase—achievements many crypto influencers only dream of."},"created":1762963424847,"type":"the activist","id":"tranbao_2610"}],"activities":{"nreplies":[{"label":"2025-10-14","value":0,"startTime":1760313600000,"endTime":1760400000000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-15","value":78,"startTime":1760400000000,"endTime":1760486400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,128],"entities":{"hashtags":[{"indices":[224,233],"text":"IRYS命运骰子"},{"indices":[493,502],"text":"KaitoYap"},{"indices":[522,526],"text":"Yap"}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1456678337557024772","name":"Irys 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dc有个活动,我赶紧跑步前去dc 准备做。结果怎么也进不去,试了好久也不行。伤心太平洋。任务如下,送给能做的A9们。\n\n今天中文区刚开的活动\n\n1、领取任务 \n\n前往 NPC「 Zood(✧ᴗ✧) 」处领取你的专属任务(DC里找),每个人的任务都不同(随机分配)/不可更换任务,NPC会将每个人领取的任务公布在活动频道\n\n2、完成任务 \n\n在指定时间内完成任务,以推文发布,\n带上话题:#IRYS命运骰子 ,\n@官方账号@irys_xyz,并链接提交到活动频道\n\n完成任务的人即可获得 5积分 另选3名20积分\n\n领取任务时间: 10月13日-16日 \n任务完成时间: 10月17日 至 10月20日(再提交任务)\n\n有的人,一出生就输在了起跑线,今天总算是体会到这句话了。\ndc都进不去,还卷什么任务。只能靠twitter排名了,路过的哥哥姐姐,多留言支持下,小A0谢过了。\n\n每个人,或早,或晚,总有一天,会掷到属于自己命运的骰子。我们需要做到,就是坚持yaps!\n\n你说对吧,未来的A9们?\n@cn_irys_xyz #KaitoYap @KaitoAI @irys_xyz #Yap\n@Mira_Network","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,168],"entities":{"hashtags":[{"indices":[169,178],"text":"Talisman"},{"indices":[260,269],"text":"Talisman"},{"indices":[291,300],"text":"ChainGPT"}],"symbols":[{"indices":[143,148],"text":"SEEK"},{"indices":[143,148],"text":"SEEK"},{"indices":[182,187],"text":"SEEK"},{"indices":[202,207],"text":"CGPT"},{"indices":[270,275],"text":"SEEK"},{"indices":[301,306],"text":"CGPT"}],"timestamps":[],"urls":[{"display_url":"pad.chaingpt.org/pools/talisman…","expanded_url":"https://pad.chaingpt.org/pools/talisman-buzzdrop?ref=B1F2FBDE","url":"https://t.co/DKYoVNNzIO","indices":[87,110]},{"display_url":"pad.chaingpt.org/pools/talisman…","expanded_url":"https://pad.chaingpt.org/pools/talisman-buzzdrop?ref=B1F2FBDE","url":"https://t.co/xe77mfKgFy","indices":[87,110]}],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1412977944629182472","name":"Talisman","screen_name":"wearetalisman","indices":[276,290]},{"id_str":"1584416846773485569","name":"ChainGPT","screen_name":"Chain_GPT","indices":[307,317]},{"id_str":"1685083391916429313","name":"ChainGPT 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采用 UMA 协议裁决机制——通过加密经济激励,吸引独立验证者提交结果;\nAzuro 则尝试构建一套模块化裁决网络,让“真相”可插拔、可替换。\n这不是技术细节,而是信任架构。\n预言机若不可信,整个市场就是空中楼阁。\n\n2. 流动性:市场的生命线\n预测市场与 DEX 最大的差别在于,它不是交易资产,而是交易观点。\n观点没有内在价值,必须靠机制维持买卖双方的平衡。\nPolymarket 采用非线性做市机制(类似 AMM,但更复杂),通过赔率变化吸引流动性;\n而 Azuro 与 Zeitgeist 则设计了“流动性池 + 奖励”双激励模型,让市场活跃度大幅提升。\n\n简单的说就是:\n 预言机决定市场是否可信,流动性决定市场是否可玩。\n\n四、资本与创始人:赌真相的人,也在赌叙事\n\n任何一个赛道的复兴,背后都站着资本的影子。\n预测市场也不例外。\n\nPolymarket 背后是 Peter Thiel、Polychain、Balaji 等顶级资本力量;\nAzuro 则获得 Delphi Ventures 与 Gnosis 系成员的早期支持;\nZeitgeist 源自 Polkadot 社区,专注于“预测市场基础设施层”;\nKalshi 是少数获得 CFTC 合规许可的美国团队,由前 MIT 金融博士创立。\n\n资本逻辑很清晰:\n\n对冲基金押注预测市场的“另类数据价值”;\n风投押注 Web3 信息市场的“叙事爆发”;\n交易者押注事件概率的“收益空间”。\n\n他们表面上在买未来,实质上在定价舆论。\n\n预测市场的真正商品,不是事件结果,而是“共识形成的速度”。\n\n五、市场格局:分层竞争与新叙事\n\n今天的预测市场已经分化出四大阵营:\n\n民意型: Polymarket, Kalshi 关注真实事件,如选举、AI政策 \nDeFi型 :Azuro, Zeitgeist 以流动性挖矿、做市为核心 \n治理型 :Gnosis, Manifold 面向DAO治理与社区投票 \n混合型 :Flipr, PMX 聚合多链预测数据,探索AI与自动化策略\n\n趋势正在显现:\n预测市场正在从“信息娱乐”走向“金融化基础设施”。\n\n过去你下注“谁赢得世界杯”;\n\n未来,你可能下注“哪个AI模型将超越GPT-5”。\n这意味着预测市场正从“赌结果”,变为“定价未来”。\n\n六、AI、Agent 与预测市场的奇点\n\n如果说2023 年是预测市场复苏的元年,那么 2025 年是它与 AI 交汇的临界点。\n\nAI 正在改变预测市场的三个维度:\n\n自动策略交易者(AI Agent) 可以自动发现赔率错配并套利;\n预测建模 提升事件概率估计的准确度;\nAI 生成事件与市场,让预测市场的边界从现实延伸至虚拟世界。\n\n简单来说,AI 让预测市场不只是“人类的判断场”,而是机器与人类共同定价未来的实验场。\n这也解释了为什么像 @anymose96、@DeFiGuyLuke 等研究者都强调:\n未来的预测市场将会出现“智能层”,\n让市场从被动交易,进化为“主动预测与决策系统”。\n\n七、风险与悖论:真相未必被验证\n\n然而,预测市场并非乌托邦。\n几个风险始终潜伏其中:\n\n监管灰区:Kalshi 虽拿到 CFTC 许可,但多数去中心化平台仍在灰色地带。\n流动性偏移:少数热点事件吸走大部分资金,长尾市场沉寂。\n裁决偏见:预言机若被操纵,“真相”可能被买通。\n信息不对称:专业套利者对散户不公平,市场逐渐集中化。\n\n更深层的悖论是:\n 预测市场希望以交易揭示真相,但交易本身也在影响真相。\n当价格成为舆论的一部分,信息市场就不再是镜子,而是放大器。\n\n八、如何通过预测市场赚钱\n如果你研究到这里,说明你已经理解了预测市场的“概念与机制”。\n接下来,就该进入实践。\n\n预测市场赚钱的逻辑,核心有四种:\n\n扫尾盘(End Game):临近事件结束时的赔率收敛套利;(tip:尾盘90%概率以上,或许是一个选择,多尝试)\n多选项套利(Spread Arbitrage):在多个盘口间对冲赔率差;\n做市(Liquidity Providing):提供流动性赚取手续费与奖励;\n事后下注(Late Bet):利用信息延迟,在事件临界点捕捉确定性收益。\n\n其中,“多选项套利”目前在 Polymarket 最活跃。\n像 @0xKaKa03 这样的研究者,甚至通过链上行为分析,发现部分钱包以自动化策略在多个盘口间搬砖套利,平均收益稳定在年化 30% 左右。\n\n当然,预测市场不是无风险套利。\n赔率波动、预言机延迟、事件裁决争议,都会带来潜在损失。\n但如果你理解它的逻辑,这里就是一片新型的金融实验田。\n\n九、结语:真相的价格\n\n预测市场的本质,是让“真相”拥有价格。\n这听起来有点残酷——真相不再神圣,而是流动的筹码。\n\n但从另一个角度看,它让我们第一次能够用市场机制衡量共识的强度。\n在信息爆炸、叙事过载的时代,预测市场也许是唯一让“集体智慧”显性化的方式。\n\n也许,未来的每一次重大事件——无论是选举、AI 突破,还是地缘冲突——\n都将率先在预测市场里预演。\n\n真相还没发生,但价格已经说话。\n\n而在那个时刻,你会发现:\n我们押注的,早已不是事件的输赢,\n而是我们自己对世界的理解。\n\n用你的筹码,下注你的人生,预测它,交易它!\n未来的A9们,肯定都学会了吧?\n欢迎留言讨论,没有专家,都是市场先生的学徒。\n\n数据出自 @Surf_Copilot @DefiLlama \n@KaitoAI 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