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Prediction Market 2025 Megathread 🔮 I’ve looked into 27 crypto prediction markets (tested apps, bots, and docs where avail) to map this growing ecosystem. Here’s how the clusters look: Social, Binary, Continuous, Customisable, Bots, Oracle/Infra, Card Pack, and Others (Idea stage). Interesting pattern I saw: A) distribution > mechanics B) fun > liquidity (smaller bets) C) liquidity > fun (whale bets) Projects reviewed: @onit_fun @BetOnBluff_io @joustlabs_ @trylimitless @Truemarketsorg @MyriadMarkets @xodotmarket @opinionlabsxyz @footballdotfun @trepa_io @chompdotgames @PicassoMarkets @precogmarket @narrativexyz @9livesso @BuzzingApp @seer_pm @userocket_app @fliprbot @kash_bot @AugurProject @azuroprotocol @upshot_cards @multiplierfun @noise_xyz @metagametrade Let's break it down 👇

.@VitalikButerin’s vision about the future of PoS is wild. Staking should start at 1 ETH instead of 32 ETH. Here’s the summary of his talk at Staking Summit by @StakingRewards 1/ Why PoS is better than PoW for decentralization. Decentralization is crucial for network security. BTC’s PoW is more decentralized than ETH’s was, but PoS has driven ETH to become more decentralized than BTC at the time of speaking. This is the right direction for us.

The recent launch of Katana DEX + $RON on Axie's Ronin network has inspired me to create another diagram. This one helps me understand the growing ecosystem of @AxieInfinity led by @Jihoz_Axie @SkyMavisHQ and the connection between all its tokens a little better.

Introducing 🧿 @predictionindex predictionindex.xyz, we will help you map, rank, and discover the best of prediction markets in one place! We’ve indexed 73 projects (big upgrade from 27 in the first round) across apps, infra, social, AI, DeFi and more, with outcome types ranging from binary and categorical to scalar and sportsbook. Each project is tagged with its status (live or waitlist), and we’ll be adding more metrics soon. Got a metric you’d like to see? Or a project we missed? Drop us a note. Legends, you're in: @9livesso @azuroprotocol @BetOnBluff_io @BodegaCardano @BRKTgg @butterygg @BuzzingApp @chompdotgames @DGbet_official @DriftProtocol @joinearlybird @Euphoria_fi @FEENTIME @fireplacegg @fliprbot @footballdotfun @forcazt_agent @ForkastGG @gondorfi @HedgehogMarket @HILOtoken @Hookt_app @hypiq_fi @Playinfgames @joustlabs_ @Kalshi @kash_bot @kizzymobile @trylimitless @mashdotfun @meleemarkets @MyriadMarkets @narrativexyz @NevuaMarkets @noise_xyz @onit_fun @PicassoMarkets @polldotfun @Polymarket @r8rate @trepa_io @seer_pm @triadfi @umadotrocks @upshot_cards @vortx_hl @xodotmarket and more below 👇

Prediction Market Inner Circle 🧿: Builders & Thinkers If you’re diving into prediction markets, start here. These are the people worth listening to and learning from. Some of them may only have a few hundred followers, but don't let that fool you. This is where the real alpha comes from. My bet: 90% of the products you’ll be using in the next few years will come from this circle. So it’s not a tiered map, more like a living constellation of elite builders and thinkers. And I'm personally vouching for this list with confidence as I’ve spoken with ~70% of them already. Follow them asap if you want to be ahead of the prediction market game.👇👇👇 @0xTone @0xWeiler @0xwondr @aaravxbt @alex__mcl @AliHabbabeh @aulijk @AuspiciousToad @ayotibo @BlondiePredicts @cjhtech @CryptoGamr @cylex_x @dejixyz @delzlon @dimahorshkov @domahhhh @eightyhi @figo_saleh @farokh @gmcaseycraig @goldytalks @guyukyukgu @heymaximillian @hugomartingale @iatskar @il_professore_0 @j0hnwang @kxchefsteve @kaitrias @lmc_security @LoshmiOnChain @luanalopeslara @LukasMikelionis @mansourtarek_ @marvellousdefi_ @Nicki57457 @NickPreszler @no________end @PixOnChain @primo_data @probabilitygod @retrimentum @shayne_coplan @taikimaeda @tonigemayel @yoshi @ZheSolworks

Crypto prediction market crash course #1 (1 hr read) 📚 You're going to want to bookmark this one. From the history of bookies to on-chain order books, trading strategies, oracle risks, and why prediction markets matter far beyond “gambling.” I’m catching up on these 6 pieces, they’re the best written articles I’ve found so far to grasp what's going on right now in this fast-moving space. Big claps to the writers! @nikarpit_ @factcheck1ntern @FabianoSolana @splinter0n @Defi_Warhol

Just updated predictionindex.xyz now tracking 141 markets 🎯. Pretty sure this is the biggest categorized list out there rn. Prediction markets are growing extremely fast and it’s exciting to see so many new projects experimenting with different designs and narratives. Really happy to bring these new projects into our prediction index fam. We'll be keeping an eye on how they grow and will roll out fresh metrics as we go. gm new frens 🤝 @aerospacetrade @BeliefMarket_ @AskBillyBets @Castora_xyz @CompetiLabs @controrg @delphitrade @dripit_io @episteme_sci @kairosdotwin @KuttBet @dkposts's likely[dot]so @Flashduels @metaculus @offmarketfun @playwithOU @polyburg @predictr_market @PredX_AI @PresagioDev @skepsis_market @sizzildotapp @tweemdotlol @TrendleFi @ZeitgeistPM @Levr_Bet @duel_duck @MonacoProtocol @Polynoob_ @PredictIt @xMarketApp

Cross-platform search (beta) is live on @predictionindex Explore prediction markets from @Kalshi, @Polymarket, and @trylimitless with one unified query. Use filters like trending, closing soon, or recently opened. So goood gotta try it now 👉predictionindex.xyz/markets Many more platforms coming soon 👀 @dimahorshkov @cjhtech @trylimitless @j0hnwang @aulijk @thib0ault @0x_ultra

It’s been an incredibly productive week in singapore. Our first Predictify Everything was a huge success and it already feels like the center of the prediction market community. A huge thank you to kalshi for their meaningful support. It took @j0hnwang only three days to say yes, and we rolled from there. Haters gonna hate but collaboration always wins. What made this event truly special was how genuinely community-driven it was. Founders and teams didn’t just show up they bought lanyards, handled ticketing, took up mc’ing duties, and literally ran parts of the show. That’s the kind of grassroots energy you can’t get anywhere else. I’m beyond grateful to everyone who made it happen. but we all know this was just the first chapter of something much bigger. 🌖🌗🌘🌒🌓🌔 @lililashka @j0hnwang @g_alafo @AMahensaria @lumbergdoteth @buuxbt @farokh @Loxley_eth @amitochu @eliqiann @guyukyukgu @griffintier @Nicki57457 @SerjKorj @pedrocdmiranda @lmc_security @betmoardotfun @aulijk @wenlanbo @MarcinRedStone @AugurProject @fireplacegg @trepa_io @lmc_security @Truemarketsorg @SolanaFndn @auradotmoney @Euphoria_fi @GetPredApp @deplaydotfun @Kalshi @indexdotfun @redstone_defi @HallidayHQ @auradotmoney @SuperteamSG @butterygg @OutlawHQ @S0litude_0L

Prediction Markets & Crypto Price Discovery – 🔮 When I first looked at prediction markets like Polymarket or Kalshi, I saw them as places to bet on elections, sports, or maybe the Fed. What I missed back then was the bigger point: they’re engines of price discovery. The more time I’ve spent with them and many more platforms listed on @predictionindex, the more I’ve realized they’re actually one of the most powerful forms of price discovery we have! Here’s why. Price discovery in spot or futures is about finding equilibrium between buyers and sellers. But prediction markets discover something different: they discover the price of belief. In stats, this is called calibration (Dawid, 1982). If you say there’s a 70% chance of an outcome, and it happens ~70% of the time, you’re well-calibrated. Most people are bad at this (@kxchefsteve talked about this once in his post). Prediction markets punish that weakness when you misprice reality, you lose money. That simple mechanic creates a feedback loop where markets converge toward well-calibrated odds. They become living experiments in truth-finding. Isn't this exciting? For crypto, that matters a lot. Our markets don’t just move on flows. They move on expectations: Fed cuts, ETF approvals, whale moves, elections. Those events reframe everything. We’ve seen this play out - on Jan 3, 2024, Polymarket’s odds of a Bitcoin ETF approval went down from 89% to 70%. Within hours, Bitcoin followed with sharp drop almost 8% from ~$45.4K to ~$41.8K. See cryptoslate.com/polymarket-etf… Here's the way I think about it now: 👉Spot/futures markets show demand for tokens. 👉 Prediction markets show demand for conviction. And conviction, when well-calibrated, is the leading edge of price. That’s why I believe prediction markets aren’t a betting platform anymore, they’re becoming parallel engines of discovery. They don’t mirror sentiment. They refine it into signals the rest of the market can’t ignore. Prediction markets are one of the most underrated tools right now. This a strong "we’re still early" proof.

you don’t need to kill kalshi or polymarket to win. prediction markets aren’t zero-sum. they’re open field. there’s still so much unbuilt: payout rails, liquidity routers, risk tranching, infra, compliance layers, and even how narratives get traded. that’s the mindset behind why we’re building @predictionindex to make something useful for everyone in the space. more features in the pipeline and you’re all going to love them. tldr - build the missing pieces. the alpha isn’t on the tables, it’s in the plumbing.

The new class of prediction-market traders is emerging fast, data-driven, and already moving millions across @Kalshi, @Polymarket @trylimitless and @MyriadMarkets. ⚡ Kalshi and Polymarket set a record with $1.4B montly trading volume 🧠 Poly Alpha traders logged $20M+ in realized profit on @PredictFolio led by @CarOnPolymarket 📊 Kalshi commands 60%+ of regulated event-contract flow in the U.S. 💰 Power users trade hundreds of markets weekly often chasing edges <5bps apart Traders in this circle are the ones shaping the meta. If you haven’t started trading yet the best day was yesterday. Legends @Domahhhh @SatoshiAncap @TraderMarvin1 @ivangtv_ @aadvark89 @aenews_PI @GaetenD @PredMTrader @Foster @cobybets1 @DropperPM @euanker @theduckguesses @Frosen43 @MrOziPM @Remember_Amalek @Betwick1 @IvanCryptoSlav @polyint @FhantomBets @r_gopfan @CSP_Trading @SemioticRivalry @LoganLajTrading @mombilOnPoly @MEPP638104 @RookeBrollins @XPredicter @CarOnPolymarket @tsybka_eth @luishusier @debl00b @0xlemoneth @probaaron @locksybets @ZubbyBadger @FridayNtrades @Koios9 @meustermint @JeongHaeju @outcomenoble @holy_moses7 @KalshiDegens

Prediction Market 2025 Megathread 🔮 I’ve looked into 27 crypto prediction markets (tested apps, bots, and docs where avail) to map this growing ecosystem. Here’s how the clusters look: Social, Binary, Continuous, Customisable, Bots, Oracle/Infra, Card Pack, and Others (Idea stage). Interesting pattern I saw: A) distribution > mechanics B) fun > liquidity (smaller bets) C) liquidity > fun (whale bets) Projects reviewed: @onit_fun @BetOnBluff_io @joustlabs_ @trylimitless @Truemarketsorg @MyriadMarkets @xodotmarket @opinionlabsxyz @footballdotfun @trepa_io @chompdotgames @PicassoMarkets @precogmarket @narrativexyz @9livesso @BuzzingApp @seer_pm @userocket_app @fliprbot @kash_bot @AugurProject @azuroprotocol @upshot_cards @multiplierfun @noise_xyz @metagametrade Let's break it down 👇

Introducing 🧿 @predictionindex predictionindex.xyz, we will help you map, rank, and discover the best of prediction markets in one place! We’ve indexed 73 projects (big upgrade from 27 in the first round) across apps, infra, social, AI, DeFi and more, with outcome types ranging from binary and categorical to scalar and sportsbook. Each project is tagged with its status (live or waitlist), and we’ll be adding more metrics soon. Got a metric you’d like to see? Or a project we missed? Drop us a note. Legends, you're in: @9livesso @azuroprotocol @BetOnBluff_io @BodegaCardano @BRKTgg @butterygg @BuzzingApp @chompdotgames @DGbet_official @DriftProtocol @joinearlybird @Euphoria_fi @FEENTIME @fireplacegg @fliprbot @footballdotfun @forcazt_agent @ForkastGG @gondorfi @HedgehogMarket @HILOtoken @Hookt_app @hypiq_fi @Playinfgames @joustlabs_ @Kalshi @kash_bot @kizzymobile @trylimitless @mashdotfun @meleemarkets @MyriadMarkets @narrativexyz @NevuaMarkets @noise_xyz @onit_fun @PicassoMarkets @polldotfun @Polymarket @r8rate @trepa_io @seer_pm @triadfi @umadotrocks @upshot_cards @vortx_hl @xodotmarket and more below 👇

Prediction Market Inner Circle 🧿: Builders & Thinkers If you’re diving into prediction markets, start here. These are the people worth listening to and learning from. Some of them may only have a few hundred followers, but don't let that fool you. This is where the real alpha comes from. My bet: 90% of the products you’ll be using in the next few years will come from this circle. So it’s not a tiered map, more like a living constellation of elite builders and thinkers. And I'm personally vouching for this list with confidence as I’ve spoken with ~70% of them already. Follow them asap if you want to be ahead of the prediction market game.👇👇👇 @0xTone @0xWeiler @0xwondr @aaravxbt @alex__mcl @AliHabbabeh @aulijk @AuspiciousToad @ayotibo @BlondiePredicts @cjhtech @CryptoGamr @cylex_x @dejixyz @delzlon @dimahorshkov @domahhhh @eightyhi @figo_saleh @farokh @gmcaseycraig @goldytalks @guyukyukgu @heymaximillian @hugomartingale @iatskar @il_professore_0 @j0hnwang @kxchefsteve @kaitrias @lmc_security @LoshmiOnChain @luanalopeslara @LukasMikelionis @mansourtarek_ @marvellousdefi_ @Nicki57457 @NickPreszler @no________end @PixOnChain @primo_data @probabilitygod @retrimentum @shayne_coplan @taikimaeda @tonigemayel @yoshi @ZheSolworks

The new class of prediction-market traders is emerging fast, data-driven, and already moving millions across @Kalshi, @Polymarket @trylimitless and @MyriadMarkets. ⚡ Kalshi and Polymarket set a record with $1.4B montly trading volume 🧠 Poly Alpha traders logged $20M+ in realized profit on @PredictFolio led by @CarOnPolymarket 📊 Kalshi commands 60%+ of regulated event-contract flow in the U.S. 💰 Power users trade hundreds of markets weekly often chasing edges <5bps apart Traders in this circle are the ones shaping the meta. If you haven’t started trading yet the best day was yesterday. Legends @Domahhhh @SatoshiAncap @TraderMarvin1 @ivangtv_ @aadvark89 @aenews_PI @GaetenD @PredMTrader @Foster @cobybets1 @DropperPM @euanker @theduckguesses @Frosen43 @MrOziPM @Remember_Amalek @Betwick1 @IvanCryptoSlav @polyint @FhantomBets @r_gopfan @CSP_Trading @SemioticRivalry @LoganLajTrading @mombilOnPoly @MEPP638104 @RookeBrollins @XPredicter @CarOnPolymarket @tsybka_eth @luishusier @debl00b @0xlemoneth @probaaron @locksybets @ZubbyBadger @FridayNtrades @Koios9 @meustermint @JeongHaeju @outcomenoble @holy_moses7 @KalshiDegens

Just updated predictionindex.xyz now tracking 141 markets 🎯. Pretty sure this is the biggest categorized list out there rn. Prediction markets are growing extremely fast and it’s exciting to see so many new projects experimenting with different designs and narratives. Really happy to bring these new projects into our prediction index fam. We'll be keeping an eye on how they grow and will roll out fresh metrics as we go. gm new frens 🤝 @aerospacetrade @BeliefMarket_ @AskBillyBets @Castora_xyz @CompetiLabs @controrg @delphitrade @dripit_io @episteme_sci @kairosdotwin @KuttBet @dkposts's likely[dot]so @Flashduels @metaculus @offmarketfun @playwithOU @polyburg @predictr_market @PredX_AI @PresagioDev @skepsis_market @sizzildotapp @tweemdotlol @TrendleFi @ZeitgeistPM @Levr_Bet @duel_duck @MonacoProtocol @Polynoob_ @PredictIt @xMarketApp

Cross-platform search (beta) is live on @predictionindex Explore prediction markets from @Kalshi, @Polymarket, and @trylimitless with one unified query. Use filters like trending, closing soon, or recently opened. So goood gotta try it now 👉predictionindex.xyz/markets Many more platforms coming soon 👀 @dimahorshkov @cjhtech @trylimitless @j0hnwang @aulijk @thib0ault @0x_ultra

ladies and gents, I’ve officially made it in crypto @cz_binance just retweeted @predictionindex

The recent launch of Katana DEX + $RON on Axie's Ronin network has inspired me to create another diagram. This one helps me understand the growing ecosystem of @AxieInfinity led by @Jihoz_Axie @SkyMavisHQ and the connection between all its tokens a little better.

.@VitalikButerin’s vision about the future of PoS is wild. Staking should start at 1 ETH instead of 32 ETH. Here’s the summary of his talk at Staking Summit by @StakingRewards 1/ Why PoS is better than PoW for decentralization. Decentralization is crucial for network security. BTC’s PoW is more decentralized than ETH’s was, but PoS has driven ETH to become more decentralized than BTC at the time of speaking. This is the right direction for us.

Prediction Markets & Crypto Price Discovery – 🔮 When I first looked at prediction markets like Polymarket or Kalshi, I saw them as places to bet on elections, sports, or maybe the Fed. What I missed back then was the bigger point: they’re engines of price discovery. The more time I’ve spent with them and many more platforms listed on @predictionindex, the more I’ve realized they’re actually one of the most powerful forms of price discovery we have! Here’s why. Price discovery in spot or futures is about finding equilibrium between buyers and sellers. But prediction markets discover something different: they discover the price of belief. In stats, this is called calibration (Dawid, 1982). If you say there’s a 70% chance of an outcome, and it happens ~70% of the time, you’re well-calibrated. Most people are bad at this (@kxchefsteve talked about this once in his post). Prediction markets punish that weakness when you misprice reality, you lose money. That simple mechanic creates a feedback loop where markets converge toward well-calibrated odds. They become living experiments in truth-finding. Isn't this exciting? For crypto, that matters a lot. Our markets don’t just move on flows. They move on expectations: Fed cuts, ETF approvals, whale moves, elections. Those events reframe everything. We’ve seen this play out - on Jan 3, 2024, Polymarket’s odds of a Bitcoin ETF approval went down from 89% to 70%. Within hours, Bitcoin followed with sharp drop almost 8% from ~$45.4K to ~$41.8K. See cryptoslate.com/polymarket-etf… Here's the way I think about it now: 👉Spot/futures markets show demand for tokens. 👉 Prediction markets show demand for conviction. And conviction, when well-calibrated, is the leading edge of price. That’s why I believe prediction markets aren’t a betting platform anymore, they’re becoming parallel engines of discovery. They don’t mirror sentiment. They refine it into signals the rest of the market can’t ignore. Prediction markets are one of the most underrated tools right now. This a strong "we’re still early" proof.

I joined two prediction market x spaces this week with builders in the trenches and came away with some key insights. A few were too good to let fade, so I’m sharing them here. tl;dr - Prediction markets aren’t just a trend they’re quickly becoming a necessity. Ty for the insights! @arsenii @iatskar @guyukyukgu @NickPreszler @akshayraj_v0 @alex__mcl @AliHabbabeh @dejixyz @BlondiePredicts @marvellousdefi_ 1/ Prediction markets as a new “truth layer” We're living in a low-trust enviroment right now where trust in traditional media and social feeds (Tiktok, IG, Facebook, etc) are dropping. Pm are stepping in as a third way to check what’s really going on. Instead of just doomscrolling headlines, you can look at real-time odds to see where sentiment actually sits. Whether you like it or not, pm will become an inevitable choice that many people use to seek truth daily.

Crypto prediction market crash course #1 (1 hr read) 📚 You're going to want to bookmark this one. From the history of bookies to on-chain order books, trading strategies, oracle risks, and why prediction markets matter far beyond “gambling.” I’m catching up on these 6 pieces, they’re the best written articles I’ve found so far to grasp what's going on right now in this fast-moving space. Big claps to the writers! @nikarpit_ @factcheck1ntern @FabianoSolana @splinter0n @Defi_Warhol