Get live statistics and analysis of Tom Dunleavy's profile on X / Twitter
Head of Venture @ Varys Capital | Ex: Sr. Analyst @ Messari | CFA/CAIA | NFA |
TG: dunleavy89 for dms
3kfollowing21kfollowers
The Analyst
Tom Dunleavy is a data-driven venture leader who breaks down complex crypto market dynamics with clarity and insight. With a strong background as a senior analyst and credentials like CFA/CAIA, Tom commands authority in financial and crypto investing trends. His tweets make intricate market mechanisms digestible while forecasting bold crypto futures.
Tom tweets so much about crypto you’d think he was single-handedly pumping the market—maybe take a breath before turning the next $120B flow into an all-night tweetstorm, Tom! Even algorithms need a coffee break.
Tom’s biggest win is spotlighting the impact of 401(k) allocations on crypto markets way before it became mainstream, positioning himself as a thought leader predicting multi-trillion-dollar fund flows that others are only now waking up to.
Tom’s life purpose revolves around educating and influencing the crypto investment landscape by applying rigorous financial analysis and forecasting to unlock market potential. He aims to bring crypto into mainstream portfolio strategies, helping investors understand the structural impacts of crypto adoption on traditional finance.
Tom values transparency, data-backed insights, and the transformative power of new financial technologies like crypto in reshaping traditional markets. He believes steady, informed investment is key to market resilience and sees adoption in retirement vehicles as a crucial step towards long-term crypto integration.
Tom’s key strengths lie in his quantitative analysis, ability to synthesize large data sets, and communicate actionable crypto investment insights. His authoritative voice backed by top-tier credentials lends credibility and influence in the crypto and finance communities.
Tom’s intense focus on data and analysis sometimes risks alienating less finance-savvy audiences, making his content dense for newcomers. Also, his high tweet volume could dilute his message, creating challenges in maintaining audience engagement without overwhelm.
To grow his audience on X, Tom should blend his deep-dive analytics with more accessible ‘teachable moments’ and anecdotes. Engaging more conversationally, inviting debate, and simplifying jargon will broaden his reach beyond hardcore finance buffs.
Fun fact: Tom’s deep dive into 401(k) allocations reshaping the crypto market reveals he’s not just watching the space—he’s anticipating multi-hundred-billion-dollar flows and using this to forecast crypto’s next big leaps!
ETH will hit $10k by the end of 2026
.@KyleSamani and I just booked a wager here
Official Terms: ETH must hit $10k intraday on any major exchange (Binance, Coinbase, or similar) by 12/31/2026.
3-1 odds.
This message will serve as the receipt, so we don't need to bother @cobie
No project in crypto needs to raise over $10m. Full stop.
I frankly think alot of these big projects (@berachain , @monad_xyz , @AbstractChain, @infinex_app, @movementlabsxyz etc) get their valuations strictly because of the need for BIG capital allocations from large VCs.
When big VCs raise $300m+ there is functionally no way to deploy it unless you write some $20m+ checks.
Even if you are doing $5m allocations you would have to invest in 60 projects (and dd 1000+)
These are great projects but there is no fucking way they need this much money.
Monad: $248m raised
Berachain: $100 raised
Movement labs: $140m raised
MegaEth: $20m raised (awesome exception!)
What protocols actually need $20m in capital in a business with marginal fixed costs that are extremely lower and just getting lower with AI?
We're effectively funding these start up with 5+ years runway...when they also get additional runway on token launch. This creates terrible motivation incentives for the team.
The valuations associated with big capital intakes set the bar so high that they are priced for perfection for what their user and revenue metrics will be 10 years in the future.
If you admit the industry isn't ready for these kind of rounds you have to return capital and not charge mgmt fees.
These project valuations are directly a transfer from VC LPs into marketing and yield farmers for these projects because you have no need to spend the money on anything else!
No more raises over $10m. No more FDVs over $100m. Retail wins. Price discovery wins. Product market fit wins.
Your comprehensive DePIN guide for 2024 and beyond
This free report from @buildwithMV contains:
-30+ pages of analysis
-8 market maps
-100s of protocols discussed
-Detailed investment frameworks proposed
Link in the last tweet. TLDR in the next few
(We did our best to include as many projects as possible, shoot me a DM if we missed you and will add!)
ETH will hit $10k by the end of 2026
.@KyleSamani and I just booked a wager here
Official Terms: ETH must hit $10k intraday on any major exchange (Binance, Coinbase, or similar) by 12/31/2026.
3-1 odds.
This message will serve as the receipt, so we don't need to bother @cobie
No project in crypto needs to raise over $10m. Full stop.
I frankly think alot of these big projects (@berachain , @monad_xyz , @AbstractChain, @infinex_app, @movementlabsxyz etc) get their valuations strictly because of the need for BIG capital allocations from large VCs.
When big VCs raise $300m+ there is functionally no way to deploy it unless you write some $20m+ checks.
Even if you are doing $5m allocations you would have to invest in 60 projects (and dd 1000+)
These are great projects but there is no fucking way they need this much money.
Monad: $248m raised
Berachain: $100 raised
Movement labs: $140m raised
MegaEth: $20m raised (awesome exception!)
What protocols actually need $20m in capital in a business with marginal fixed costs that are extremely lower and just getting lower with AI?
We're effectively funding these start up with 5+ years runway...when they also get additional runway on token launch. This creates terrible motivation incentives for the team.
The valuations associated with big capital intakes set the bar so high that they are priced for perfection for what their user and revenue metrics will be 10 years in the future.
If you admit the industry isn't ready for these kind of rounds you have to return capital and not charge mgmt fees.
These project valuations are directly a transfer from VC LPs into marketing and yield farmers for these projects because you have no need to spend the money on anything else!
No more raises over $10m. No more FDVs over $100m. Retail wins. Price discovery wins. Product market fit wins.
Your comprehensive DePIN guide for 2024 and beyond
This free report from @buildwithMV contains:
-30+ pages of analysis
-8 market maps
-100s of protocols discussed
-Detailed investment frameworks proposed
Link in the last tweet. TLDR in the next few
(We did our best to include as many projects as possible, shoot me a DM if we missed you and will add!)
Professor at FAU, computational philosopher, co-founder/Director MPCR lab, working on an autoregressive account of language and cognition one token at a time
Amateur photo snapper, math nerd, wood craftsman, lover of cozy log cabins, books, tacos, and everything Harry Potter. Don't be a catfish. No DMs! Pro-Choice!
4kfollowing21kfollowers
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Even algorithms need a coffee break.","win":"Tom’s biggest win is spotlighting the impact of 401(k) allocations on crypto markets way before it became mainstream, positioning himself as a thought leader predicting multi-trillion-dollar fund flows that others are only now waking up to."},"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,278],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","quoted_status_id_str":"1953397616114360687","quoted_status_permalink":{"url":"https://t.co/XRWf1NKSSw","expanded":"https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1953397616114360687","display":"x.com/WatcherGuru/st…"},"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1953426808793141407","view_count":617410,"bookmark_count":649,"created_at":1754568218000,"favorite_count":4829,"quote_count":59,"reply_count":103,"retweet_count":652,"user_id_str":"26693708","conversation_id_str":"1953426808793141407","full_text":"Crypto in 401ks is WAY WAY BIGGER news than the ETFs\n\nIn the US, roughly 100 million Americans have a retirement investment vehicle known as a 401(k). Every 2 weeks, a portion of their paychecks are routed directly into purchasing a mixture of stocks and bonds. On autopilot. No discretion, just direct purchases based on their predefined allocations. Most Americans adjust these allocations annually, if at all.\n\nThis is a HUGE driver of the equity market run and resilience over the past 20 years. A constant background bid for assets. \n\nIn aggregate, this is ~$12T in assets with ~$50B of new capital flowing in every 2 weeks!\n\nAt a 1% portfolio allocation to crypto brings $120B in new flows\nAt a 3% portfolio allocation to crypto brings $360B in new flows\nAt a 5% portfolio allocation to crypto brings $600B in new flows\n\nand these aren't one time flows. THEY KEEP BUYING ONCE ALLOCATIONS ARE SET.\n\n401ks + DATs w/ at the money shelves put a ridiculous floor of crypto going forward and move the limit from the moon to jupiter.\n\nStrap in 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Liberty Financial aggressively buying ETH in the last 24 hours\n\nNow their biggest holding\n\n🤔 https://t.co/xWG68bEHio","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,276],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"46332443","name":"Kyle Samani","screen_name":"KyleSamani","indices":[39,50]},{"id_str":"46332443","name":"Kyle Samani","screen_name":"KyleSamani","indices":[39,50]},{"id_str":"2259434528","name":"Cobie","screen_name":"cobie","indices":[277,283]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1945161917669966155","view_count":161001,"bookmark_count":148,"created_at":1752597715000,"favorite_count":1252,"quote_count":28,"reply_count":206,"retweet_count":64,"user_id_str":"26693708","conversation_id_str":"1945161917669966155","full_text":"ETH will hit $10k by the end of 2026\n\n.@KyleSamani and I just booked a wager here\n\nOfficial Terms: ETH must hit $10k intraday on any major exchange (Binance, Coinbase, or similar) by 12/31/2026. \n\n3-1 odds. \n\nThis message will serve as the receipt, so we don't need to bother @cobie","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,255],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/poj8vwfyic","expanded_url":"https://twitter.com/dunleavy89/status/1817896423293100087/photo/1","id_str":"1817895827085340672","indices":[256,279],"media_key":"3_1817895827085340672","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GTp2n4QWMAANgot.png","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/Poj8VWFYic","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":642,"w":835,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":642,"w":835,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":523,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":642,"width":835,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":835,"h":468},{"x":96,"y":0,"w":642,"h":642},{"x":136,"y":0,"w":563,"h":642},{"x":257,"y":0,"w":321,"h":642},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":835,"h":642}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1817895827085340672"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/poj8vwfyic","expanded_url":"https://twitter.com/dunleavy89/status/1817896423293100087/photo/1","id_str":"1817895827085340672","indices":[256,279],"media_key":"3_1817895827085340672","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GTp2n4QWMAANgot.png","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/Poj8VWFYic","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":642,"w":835,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":642,"w":835,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":523,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":642,"width":835,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":835,"h":468},{"x":96,"y":0,"w":642,"h":642},{"x":136,"y":0,"w":563,"h":642},{"x":257,"y":0,"w":321,"h":642},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":835,"h":642}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1817895827085340672"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1817896423293100087","view_count":490727,"bookmark_count":117,"created_at":1722255256000,"favorite_count":979,"quote_count":75,"reply_count":58,"retweet_count":212,"user_id_str":"26693708","conversation_id_str":"1817896423293100087","full_text":"Crypto now has the number one Super PAC in the US with over $200m raised\n\nFairshake (crypto) now surpasses both the biggest Republican and Democratic Super Pacs: Make America Great Again (Republican) and Senate Majority (Dem).\n\nSource: OpenSecrets dot org https://t.co/Poj8VWFYic","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,61],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1900193048782409867","view_count":76782,"bookmark_count":32,"created_at":1741876301000,"favorite_count":975,"quote_count":9,"reply_count":128,"retweet_count":70,"user_id_str":"26693708","conversation_id_str":"1900193048782409867","full_text":"The ETH rally to $10k is going to be so obvious in retrospect","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,277],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1471917994762670081","name":"Berachain Foundation 🐻⛓","screen_name":"berachain","indices":[104,114]},{"id_str":"1342961741718810632","name":"Monad ⨀","screen_name":"monad_xyz","indices":[117,127]},{"id_str":"1806389563788587009","name":"Abstract","screen_name":"AbstractChain","indices":[130,144]},{"id_str":"1681540721684389888","name":"Infinex","screen_name":"infinex_app","indices":[146,158]},{"id_str":"1632504432746192896","name":"Movement","screen_name":"movementlabsxyz","indices":[160,176]},{"id_str":"1471917994762670081","name":"Berachain Foundation 🐻⛓","screen_name":"berachain","indices":[104,114]},{"id_str":"1342961741718810632","name":"Monad ⨀","screen_name":"monad_xyz","indices":[117,127]},{"id_str":"1806389563788587009","name":"Abstract","screen_name":"AbstractChain","indices":[130,144]},{"id_str":"1681540721684389888","name":"Infinex","screen_name":"infinex_app","indices":[146,158]},{"id_str":"1632504432746192896","name":"Movement","screen_name":"movementlabsxyz","indices":[160,176]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1887135982073376894","view_count":184061,"bookmark_count":256,"created_at":1738763254000,"favorite_count":904,"quote_count":37,"reply_count":129,"retweet_count":108,"user_id_str":"26693708","conversation_id_str":"1887135982073376894","full_text":"No project in crypto needs to raise over $10m. Full stop. \n\nI frankly think alot of these big projects (@berachain , @monad_xyz , @AbstractChain, @infinex_app, @movementlabsxyz etc) get their valuations strictly because of the need for BIG capital allocations from large VCs. \n\nWhen big VCs raise $300m+ there is functionally no way to deploy it unless you write some $20m+ checks.\n\nEven if you are doing $5m allocations you would have to invest in 60 projects (and dd 1000+)\n\nThese are great projects but there is no fucking way they need this much money.\n\nMonad: $248m raised\nBerachain: $100 raised\nMovement labs: $140m raised\nMegaEth: $20m raised (awesome exception!)\n\nWhat protocols actually need $20m in capital in a business with marginal fixed costs that are extremely lower and just getting lower with AI?\n\nWe're effectively funding these start up with 5+ years runway...when they also get additional runway on token launch. This creates terrible motivation incentives for the team.\n\nThe valuations associated with big capital intakes set the bar so high that they are priced for perfection for what their user and revenue metrics will be 10 years in the future.\n\nIf you admit the industry isn't ready for these kind of rounds you have to return capital and not charge mgmt fees.\n\nThese project valuations are directly a transfer from VC LPs into marketing and yield farmers for these projects because you have no need to spend the money on anything else! \n\nNo more raises over $10m. No more FDVs over $100m. Retail wins. Price discovery wins. 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