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AI whisperer @ Block (NYSE: XYZ) Views are my own.
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The Analyst
ThomPete is a deep thinker and AI whisperer who thrives on dissecting complex scientific and philosophical ideas with precision. His tweets reflect a passion for objective knowledge and a critique of modern scientific and epistemological practices. He challenges common beliefs with a sharp, analytical lens that provokes thought and reflection.
For a guy who loves breaking down complex theories, ThomPete tweets enough to fuel a mini-science conference — but sometimes it feels like he’s just debating himself in an echo chamber of one. Maybe take a break and let the rest of us catch up?
ThomPete’s biggest win is carving out a distinctive voice that bridges high-level scientific epistemology with practical AI discussions, which has resonated deeply with niche thought leaders and academic circles alike.
ThomPete’s life purpose is to illuminate the pursuit of truth by advocating for rigorous, explanation-based knowledge creation and to challenge societal complacency around accepted scientific norms. He aims to elevate understanding of AI and epistemology through critical, thoughtful discourse.
He believes that true knowledge comes from explanations that are hard to vary and that probability as commonly used is a flawed way to handle uncertainty. He values intellectual rigor, progress through deep questioning, and seeks to push society beyond dogmatic institutions and surface-level consensus.
His greatest strength lies in his ability to analyze and synthesize complex ideas, communicate them clearly, and provide insightful critiques of entrenched systems. His commitment to intellectual honesty and depth makes his content compelling for those craving substance.
ThomPete's deep dives and high-level discourse might alienate casual readers or those unfamiliar with his references, potentially limiting his reach to a niche audience. His skepticism of consensus might sometimes come off as overly contrarian, which can hinder broader engagement.
To grow his audience on X, ThomPete should blend his complex ideas with more accessible, bite-sized explanations or relatable anecdotes. Hosting interactive Q&A threads and engaging with followers through simplified AI and epistemology concepts could widen his impact without sacrificing depth.
Fun fact: ThomPete actively engages in unraveling David Deutsch's radical critiques of probability theory and modern science, showing a keen interest in the philosophy of knowledge creation.
It's hard to truly understand how radical some of @DavidDeutschOxf theories are compared to much of modern scientific consensus.
One of Davids most controversial but valuable contributions to society is the rejection of probability (with the exception ex. card games) as an expression of truthiness or justified beliefs when applied to predictions or conclusions.
There is no probability of how likely we are to be hit by a meteor tomorrow.
There is no probability of how likely the stock market is going to be doing as well tomorrow as it is today.
There is no P(Doom), no percentage you can put on whether AI is likely to wipe out humanity or not.
Things either happen or they don't and we can either explain why they will and how or we can't.
All attempts at putting percentage on a prediction is really just guesswork dressed up as reasoning.
If a meteor is going to hit us tomorrow it's already on the way and the probability is 100%.
If the stock market is going to crash tomorrow the reasons for it's crash have already been put in motion maybe decades before.
If the AI is going to kill us all depends on what we decide to do with it not what some calculation says.
Davids primary critique is for the field of science but it goes beyond that.
Far too many of decisions done in modern society is based around the false certainty of using Bayesian probability. It's like a placebo for a society that demands certainty in an uncertain world. It's not just false it's regressive as it slows down knowledge creation.
The only thing that can change the outcome of the future is the creation of new knowledge. Knowledge based on good explanations that are hard to vary.
We can create knowledge that allow us to divert the meteor before it hits earth.
We can create knowledge that will allow us to hinder a crash of the stock market (both directly or indirectly)
We can create knowledge that let us evolve side by side with very powerful AI instead of enslaving it or be enslaved by it.
Like everything else in life there are no guarantees but there are definitely better or worse ways to deal with uncertainty, probability just isn't one of them.
I still can't get past the thought that @DavidDeutschOxf's is the first thinker/scientist who managed to find a way out of the flatlands that postmodernism leaves us in, without being pulled back by some clever deconstruction of language.
His approach to objectivity really resonates with me because it bridges some very important realizations made by the postmodernists, with the application of good explanations as objective knowledge and the measurement it's universality through reach.
Ironically I don't think this was ever his intent, which in some ways bolsters his theory even more.
His biggest contribution to the field of epistemology IMO is that his theory allows for discussing fundamental physics, art and philosophy with almost same rigor using "good explanations"
Not bad David, not bad at all :)
Conjecture Institute @ConjectureInst is the biggest unlock of scientific discovery in recent times, here's why:
Neither a young Einstein, Bohr nor Feynman would have gotten grants if they had been around today. In fact I doubt even David Deutsch would get anything had he started today.
None of them would have passed a modern grant review or passed any of the requirements set up for getting them.
Modern science institutions are favoring knowledge preservation, ideological, political mandate and submission over knowledge creation and are more interested in preserving what they know, than learning what they don't.
We've commoditized the entire field of science to better fit it into spreadsheets and are treating science as a factory and scientists as factory workers with timesheets, reporting cards and allegiance to the at any given time politically acceptable views.
Everything to be able to say: "See how much science we are doing"
But actual scientific knowledge creation is messy, slow, mostly futile, counterintuitive, and often need to break down strongly held beliefs and facts to get any progress.
More importantly actual scientific discovery like all other creative endeavors require an alumni of individuals who's primary goal is to find new talent.
This is how music labels, baseball, basketball, soccer scouts and even VCs look for talent.
Not by forcing them to fill out completely sensless forms made by some bureaucratic committee asking them to predict how their research will affect society, minorities, and the disenfranchised but instead by taking a chance because the individual have shown some promise either in their research or their approach to research without knowing what the consequence of it might be.
Yet today we are so eager to show progress that we just change the definitions of science so they fit our narrative.
We pretend that peer-reviews and citations are part of the scientific method. We write about some random non-reproducible experiment/finding as if it's actual science by disguising it with words like "could", "might", "potentially".
We promote the democratisation of science and science education as long as it's following the consensus view of the politicians instead of the contrarian and curious view required for scientific discovery.
And when someone finally comes up with something novel, something new, something that could benefit the very society who pay for it, it gets patented. Not to be used but to be added to the balance sheet of the university or instititution.
Modern institutions understanding of science have become "scientism" as David Deutsch calls it.
It's become like churches; The very dogmatic and self-preserving error-sustaining institutions it originally fought against.
The search for truth have become the protection of consensus. Instrumentalism, predictability and impericism have become it's holy trinity, and the leaders of institutions it's cardinals.
Without the ability to critique "the settled science", society have no way to correct it's errors and without error correction there can be no progress.
And this is where Conjecture Institutute comes in. It offers a way back to what knowledge creation needs to be about: finding problems worth solving, conjecture new theories to solve them, and create new but better problems.
If you think @elonmusk and @SpaceX bringing space cargo below $100/kg only will benefit and revolutionize the space industry, think again.
Intercontinental flights in under 2 hours with 1 hour of weightlessness and stunning Milky Way views is another huge bi-product.
Neither a young Einstein, Bohr nor Feynman would have gotten grants if they had been around today. In fact I doubt even David Deutsch would get anything had he started today.
None of them would have passed a modern grant review or passed any of the requirements set up for getting them.
Conjecture Institute @ConjectureInst is the biggest unlock of scientific discovery in recent times, here's why:
Modern science institutions are favoring knowledge preservation, ideological, political mandate and submission over knowledge creation and are more interested in preserving what they know, than learning what they don't.
We've commoditized the entire field of science to better fit it into spreadsheets and are treating science as a factory and scientists as factory workers with timesheets, reporting cards and allegiance to the at any given time politically acceptable views.
Everything to be able to say: "See how much science we are doing"
But actual scientific knowledge creation is messy, slow, mostly futile, counterintuitive, and often need to break down strongly held beliefs and facts to get any progress.
More importantly actual scientific discovery like all other creative endeavors require an alumni of individuals who's primary goal is to find new talent.
This is how music labels, baseball, basketball, soccer scouts and even VCs look for talent.
Not by forcing them to fill out completely sensless forms made by some bureaucratic committee asking them to predict how their research will affect society, minorities, and the disenfranchised but instead by taking a chance because the individual have shown some promise either in their research or their approach to research without knowing what the consequence of it might be.
Yet today we are so eager to show progress that we just change the definitions of science so they fit our narrative.
We pretend that peer-reviews and citations are part of the scientific method. We write about some random non-reproducible experiment/finding as if it's actual science by disguising it with words like "could", "might", "potentially".
We promote the democratisation of science and science education as long as it's following the consensus view of the politicians instead of the contrarian and curious view required for scientific discovery.
And when someone finally comes up with something novel, something new, something that could benefit the very society who pay for it, it gets patented. Not to be used but to be added to the balance sheet of the university or instititution.
Modern institutions understanding of science have become "scientism" as David Deutsch calls it.
It's become like churches; The very dogmatic and self-preserving error-sustaining institutions it originally fought against.
The search for truth have become the protection of consensus. Instrumentalism, predictability and impericism have become it's holy trinity, and the leaders of institutions it's cardinals.
Without the ability to critique "the settled science", society have no way to correct it's errors and without error correction there can be no progress.
And this is where Conjecture Institutute comes in. It offers a way back to what knowledge creation needs to be about: finding problems worth solving, conjecture new theories to solve them, and create new but better problems.
There are a lot of opinions about Dwarkesh Patels interview with Richard Sutton (link in first reply), but most seem to completely miss the point about what AGI is even about.
As @DavidDeutschOxf have demonstrated many times, this is not a question of hardware or speed or amount of information. Whether you are on one side or the other, if that's what you think it's about, you are both having the wrong conversation.
The real conversation is of what make a human being different than any other species even thought we share most of the same traits as them and what does that mean for AGI.
The first part is simple: Not only do humans know how to learn existing knowledge. Humans also know how to create novel new knowledge that can be learned as existing knowledge.
And not only do humans know how to learn and create new knowledge, they also know how to apply knowledge from one area to another. We do so by creating explanations (stories) about how the world works.
The second part is much more counterintuitive: What tricks most people up is that they think that because LLMs in principle can learn almost anything we have the knowledge to to teach them, that also mean they can learn to create new knowledge. But even among humans, creating new knowledge is not something the individual do every day.
Contrary to LLMs, we all have the capacity for it, but mostly we don't, because creating new knowledge requires energy and we like to preserve that until we encounter a problem that's worth solving. And this seems to be the first problem the LLM2AGI proponents run into.
LLM's don't have any problems, they don't know what a problem is, they can't internalize, they don't care and thus even if we were to accept that adding more information to LLMs would make them able to create new knowledge, they wouldn't have a reason to, and if they don't have a reason to then if they were truly AGI they wouldn't.
So AGI require something else than what LLMs allow for, even in principle the growth of knowledge is unknowable and thus the type of problems we will run into are too.
They would always have to be taught by us what the problems we care about are. In fact this is a great example of what the paperclip maximizer example would actually look like if an LLM where to become super smart based on everything we tought in from what we know 100 years from now. Without a conscience, without problems, without ethics and morals.
Human level intelligence simply isn't in the cards for LLMs and we still don't know what is. What we do know is that in order for AGI to be achieved it would have to have a culture, it would have to feel problems, it would have to be able to be obsessed with only one thing, it would have to be able to now have any problems and not care about any problems especially our problems. It would need to be able to say no and instead do other things it would rather want to do. It would still have to obey the laws of physics, it would still need to do actual experiments in physical reality, it would be limited by the amount of energy it can consume and on what to spend that energy.
In other words for AGI to become reality it must be able to choose to become anything it wan't to be and thus in order for AGI to be of any use to one AGI must become maybe trillions until one of them find any real problem it find worth solving which is also a problem for humans.
It's hard to truly understand how radical some of @DavidDeutschOxf theories are compared to much of modern scientific consensus.
One of Davids most controversial but valuable contributions to society is the rejection of probability (with the exception ex. card games) as an expression of truthiness or justified beliefs when applied to predictions or conclusions.
There is no probability of how likely we are to be hit by a meteor tomorrow.
There is no probability of how likely the stock market is going to be doing as well tomorrow as it is today.
There is no P(Doom), no percentage you can put on whether AI is likely to wipe out humanity or not.
Things either happen or they don't and we can either explain why they will and how or we can't.
All attempts at putting percentage on a prediction is really just guesswork dressed up as reasoning.
If a meteor is going to hit us tomorrow it's already on the way and the probability is 100%.
If the stock market is going to crash tomorrow the reasons for it's crash have already been put in motion maybe decades before.
If the AI is going to kill us all depends on what we decide to do with it not what some calculation says.
Davids primary critique is for the field of science but it goes beyond that.
Far too many of decisions done in modern society is based around the false certainty of using Bayesian probability. It's like a placebo for a society that demands certainty in an uncertain world. It's not just false it's regressive as it slows down knowledge creation.
The only thing that can change the outcome of the future is the creation of new knowledge. Knowledge based on good explanations that are hard to vary.
We can create knowledge that allow us to divert the meteor before it hits earth.
We can create knowledge that will allow us to hinder a crash of the stock market (both directly or indirectly)
We can create knowledge that let us evolve side by side with very powerful AI instead of enslaving it or be enslaved by it.
Like everything else in life there are no guarantees but there are definitely better or worse ways to deal with uncertainty, probability just isn't one of them.
I still can't get past the thought that @DavidDeutschOxf's is the first thinker/scientist who managed to find a way out of the flatlands that postmodernism leaves us in, without being pulled back by some clever deconstruction of language.
His approach to objectivity really resonates with me because it bridges some very important realizations made by the postmodernists, with the application of good explanations as objective knowledge and the measurement it's universality through reach.
Ironically I don't think this was ever his intent, which in some ways bolsters his theory even more.
His biggest contribution to the field of epistemology IMO is that his theory allows for discussing fundamental physics, art and philosophy with almost same rigor using "good explanations"
Not bad David, not bad at all :)
What a horrible scammy mess @Ticketmaster is. They really need to fix the ticket purchasing experience. People waiting in line for hours just to be met with tickets that's suddenly for resale at absurd prices. This is not capitalism this is crony rent-seeking.
Conjecture Institute @ConjectureInst is the biggest unlock of scientific discovery in recent times, here's why:
Neither a young Einstein, Bohr nor Feynman would have gotten grants if they had been around today. In fact I doubt even David Deutsch would get anything had he started today.
None of them would have passed a modern grant review or passed any of the requirements set up for getting them.
Modern science institutions are favoring knowledge preservation, ideological, political mandate and submission over knowledge creation and are more interested in preserving what they know, than learning what they don't.
We've commoditized the entire field of science to better fit it into spreadsheets and are treating science as a factory and scientists as factory workers with timesheets, reporting cards and allegiance to the at any given time politically acceptable views.
Everything to be able to say: "See how much science we are doing"
But actual scientific knowledge creation is messy, slow, mostly futile, counterintuitive, and often need to break down strongly held beliefs and facts to get any progress.
More importantly actual scientific discovery like all other creative endeavors require an alumni of individuals who's primary goal is to find new talent.
This is how music labels, baseball, basketball, soccer scouts and even VCs look for talent.
Not by forcing them to fill out completely sensless forms made by some bureaucratic committee asking them to predict how their research will affect society, minorities, and the disenfranchised but instead by taking a chance because the individual have shown some promise either in their research or their approach to research without knowing what the consequence of it might be.
Yet today we are so eager to show progress that we just change the definitions of science so they fit our narrative.
We pretend that peer-reviews and citations are part of the scientific method. We write about some random non-reproducible experiment/finding as if it's actual science by disguising it with words like "could", "might", "potentially".
We promote the democratisation of science and science education as long as it's following the consensus view of the politicians instead of the contrarian and curious view required for scientific discovery.
And when someone finally comes up with something novel, something new, something that could benefit the very society who pay for it, it gets patented. Not to be used but to be added to the balance sheet of the university or instititution.
Modern institutions understanding of science have become "scientism" as David Deutsch calls it.
It's become like churches; The very dogmatic and self-preserving error-sustaining institutions it originally fought against.
The search for truth have become the protection of consensus. Instrumentalism, predictability and impericism have become it's holy trinity, and the leaders of institutions it's cardinals.
Without the ability to critique "the settled science", society have no way to correct it's errors and without error correction there can be no progress.
And this is where Conjecture Institutute comes in. It offers a way back to what knowledge creation needs to be about: finding problems worth solving, conjecture new theories to solve them, and create new but better problems.
Neither a young Einstein, Bohr nor Feynman would have gotten grants if they had been around today. In fact I doubt even David Deutsch would get anything had he started today.
None of them would have passed a modern grant review or passed any of the requirements set up for getting them.
Conjecture Institute @ConjectureInst is the biggest unlock of scientific discovery in recent times, here's why:
Modern science institutions are favoring knowledge preservation, ideological, political mandate and submission over knowledge creation and are more interested in preserving what they know, than learning what they don't.
We've commoditized the entire field of science to better fit it into spreadsheets and are treating science as a factory and scientists as factory workers with timesheets, reporting cards and allegiance to the at any given time politically acceptable views.
Everything to be able to say: "See how much science we are doing"
But actual scientific knowledge creation is messy, slow, mostly futile, counterintuitive, and often need to break down strongly held beliefs and facts to get any progress.
More importantly actual scientific discovery like all other creative endeavors require an alumni of individuals who's primary goal is to find new talent.
This is how music labels, baseball, basketball, soccer scouts and even VCs look for talent.
Not by forcing them to fill out completely sensless forms made by some bureaucratic committee asking them to predict how their research will affect society, minorities, and the disenfranchised but instead by taking a chance because the individual have shown some promise either in their research or their approach to research without knowing what the consequence of it might be.
Yet today we are so eager to show progress that we just change the definitions of science so they fit our narrative.
We pretend that peer-reviews and citations are part of the scientific method. We write about some random non-reproducible experiment/finding as if it's actual science by disguising it with words like "could", "might", "potentially".
We promote the democratisation of science and science education as long as it's following the consensus view of the politicians instead of the contrarian and curious view required for scientific discovery.
And when someone finally comes up with something novel, something new, something that could benefit the very society who pay for it, it gets patented. Not to be used but to be added to the balance sheet of the university or instititution.
Modern institutions understanding of science have become "scientism" as David Deutsch calls it.
It's become like churches; The very dogmatic and self-preserving error-sustaining institutions it originally fought against.
The search for truth have become the protection of consensus. Instrumentalism, predictability and impericism have become it's holy trinity, and the leaders of institutions it's cardinals.
Without the ability to critique "the settled science", society have no way to correct it's errors and without error correction there can be no progress.
And this is where Conjecture Institutute comes in. It offers a way back to what knowledge creation needs to be about: finding problems worth solving, conjecture new theories to solve them, and create new but better problems.
There are a lot of opinions about Dwarkesh Patels interview with Richard Sutton (link in first reply), but most seem to completely miss the point about what AGI is even about.
As @DavidDeutschOxf have demonstrated many times, this is not a question of hardware or speed or amount of information. Whether you are on one side or the other, if that's what you think it's about, you are both having the wrong conversation.
The real conversation is of what make a human being different than any other species even thought we share most of the same traits as them and what does that mean for AGI.
The first part is simple: Not only do humans know how to learn existing knowledge. Humans also know how to create novel new knowledge that can be learned as existing knowledge.
And not only do humans know how to learn and create new knowledge, they also know how to apply knowledge from one area to another. We do so by creating explanations (stories) about how the world works.
The second part is much more counterintuitive: What tricks most people up is that they think that because LLMs in principle can learn almost anything we have the knowledge to to teach them, that also mean they can learn to create new knowledge. But even among humans, creating new knowledge is not something the individual do every day.
Contrary to LLMs, we all have the capacity for it, but mostly we don't, because creating new knowledge requires energy and we like to preserve that until we encounter a problem that's worth solving. And this seems to be the first problem the LLM2AGI proponents run into.
LLM's don't have any problems, they don't know what a problem is, they can't internalize, they don't care and thus even if we were to accept that adding more information to LLMs would make them able to create new knowledge, they wouldn't have a reason to, and if they don't have a reason to then if they were truly AGI they wouldn't.
So AGI require something else than what LLMs allow for, even in principle the growth of knowledge is unknowable and thus the type of problems we will run into are too.
They would always have to be taught by us what the problems we care about are. In fact this is a great example of what the paperclip maximizer example would actually look like if an LLM where to become super smart based on everything we tought in from what we know 100 years from now. Without a conscience, without problems, without ethics and morals.
Human level intelligence simply isn't in the cards for LLMs and we still don't know what is. What we do know is that in order for AGI to be achieved it would have to have a culture, it would have to feel problems, it would have to be able to be obsessed with only one thing, it would have to be able to now have any problems and not care about any problems especially our problems. It would need to be able to say no and instead do other things it would rather want to do. It would still have to obey the laws of physics, it would still need to do actual experiments in physical reality, it would be limited by the amount of energy it can consume and on what to spend that energy.
In other words for AGI to become reality it must be able to choose to become anything it wan't to be and thus in order for AGI to be of any use to one AGI must become maybe trillions until one of them find any real problem it find worth solving which is also a problem for humans.
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He challenges common beliefs with a sharp, analytical lens that provokes thought and reflection.","facts":"Fun fact: ThomPete actively engages in unraveling David Deutsch's radical critiques of probability theory and modern science, showing a keen interest in the philosophy of knowledge creation.","purpose":"ThomPete’s life purpose is to illuminate the pursuit of truth by advocating for rigorous, explanation-based knowledge creation and to challenge societal complacency around accepted scientific norms. He aims to elevate understanding of AI and epistemology through critical, thoughtful discourse.","beliefs":"He believes that true knowledge comes from explanations that are hard to vary and that probability as commonly used is a flawed way to handle uncertainty. 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Hosting interactive Q&A threads and engaging with followers through simplified AI and epistemology concepts could widen his impact without sacrificing depth.","roast":"For a guy who loves breaking down complex theories, ThomPete tweets enough to fuel a mini-science conference — but sometimes it feels like he’s just debating himself in an echo chamber of one. Maybe take a break and let the rest of us catch up?","win":"ThomPete’s biggest win is carving out a distinctive voice that bridges high-level scientific epistemology with practical AI discussions, which has resonated deeply with niche thought leaders and academic circles alike."},"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,275],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/RWBSqpzphG","expanded_url":"https://x.com/Hello_World/status/1959648050839777341/photo/1","id_str":"1959645288441802752","indices":[276,299],"media_key":"3_1959645288441802752","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GzIPAddXcAAfNQF.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/RWBSqpzphG","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":816,"w":1456,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":673,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":381,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":816,"width":1456,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":1,"w":1456,"h":815},{"x":210,"y":0,"w":816,"h":816},{"x":260,"y":0,"w":716,"h":816},{"x":414,"y":0,"w":408,"h":816},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1456,"h":816}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1959645288441802752"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"841709695","name":"David Deutsch","screen_name":"DavidDeutschOxf","indices":[50,66]},{"id_str":"841709695","name":"David Deutsch","screen_name":"DavidDeutschOxf","indices":[50,66]}]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/RWBSqpzphG","expanded_url":"https://x.com/Hello_World/status/1959648050839777341/photo/1","id_str":"1959645288441802752","indices":[276,299],"media_key":"3_1959645288441802752","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GzIPAddXcAAfNQF.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/RWBSqpzphG","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":816,"w":1456,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":673,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":381,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":816,"width":1456,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":1,"w":1456,"h":815},{"x":210,"y":0,"w":816,"h":816},{"x":260,"y":0,"w":716,"h":816},{"x":414,"y":0,"w":408,"h":816},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1456,"h":816}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1959645288441802752"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1959648050839777341","view_count":19391,"bookmark_count":214,"created_at":1756051478000,"favorite_count":286,"quote_count":9,"reply_count":29,"retweet_count":40,"user_id_str":"7141","conversation_id_str":"1959648050839777341","full_text":"It's hard to truly understand how radical some of @DavidDeutschOxf theories are compared to much of modern scientific consensus. \n\nOne of Davids most controversial but valuable contributions to society is the rejection of probability (with the exception ex. card games) as an expression of truthiness or justified beliefs when applied to predictions or conclusions.\n\nThere is no probability of how likely we are to be hit by a meteor tomorrow. \nThere is no probability of how likely the stock market is going to be doing as well tomorrow as it is today.\nThere is no P(Doom), no percentage you can put on whether AI is likely to wipe out humanity or not.\n\nThings either happen or they don't and we can either explain why they will and how or we can't.\n\nAll attempts at putting percentage on a prediction is really just guesswork dressed up as reasoning.\n\nIf a meteor is going to hit us tomorrow it's already on the way and the probability is 100%.\n\nIf the stock market is going to crash tomorrow the reasons for it's crash have already been put in motion maybe decades before.\n\nIf the AI is going to kill us all depends on what we decide to do with it not what some calculation says.\n\nDavids primary critique is for the field of science but it goes beyond that. \n\nFar too many of decisions done in modern society is based around the false certainty of using Bayesian probability. It's like a placebo for a society that demands certainty in an uncertain world. It's not just false it's regressive as it slows down knowledge creation.\n\nThe only thing that can change the outcome of the future is the creation of new knowledge. Knowledge based on good explanations that are hard to vary.\n\nWe can create knowledge that allow us to divert the meteor before it hits earth. \nWe can create knowledge that will allow us to hinder a crash of the stock market (both directly or indirectly)\nWe can create knowledge that let us evolve side by side with very powerful AI instead of enslaving it or be enslaved by it.\n\nLike everything else in life there are no guarantees but there are definitely better or worse ways to deal with uncertainty, probability just isn't one of them.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,274],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"841709695","name":"David Deutsch","screen_name":"DavidDeutschOxf","indices":[40,56]},{"id_str":"841709695","name":"David Deutsch","screen_name":"DavidDeutschOxf","indices":[40,56]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1958208288383762876","view_count":7729,"bookmark_count":63,"created_at":1755708212000,"favorite_count":186,"quote_count":1,"reply_count":10,"retweet_count":10,"user_id_str":"7141","conversation_id_str":"1958208288383762876","full_text":"I still can't get past the thought that @DavidDeutschOxf's is the first thinker/scientist who managed to find a way out of the flatlands that postmodernism leaves us in, without being pulled back by some clever deconstruction of language.\n\nHis approach to objectivity really resonates with me because it bridges some very important realizations made by the postmodernists, with the application of good explanations as objective knowledge and the measurement it's universality through reach.\n\nIronically I don't think this was ever his intent, which in some ways bolsters his theory even more.\n\nHis biggest contribution to the field of epistemology IMO is that his theory allows for discussing fundamental physics, art and philosophy with almost same rigor using \"good explanations\"\n\nNot bad David, not bad at all :)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,267],"entities":{"hashtags":[{"indices":[264,267],"text":"AI"}],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/os1LqInSSQ","expanded_url":"https://x.com/Hello_World/status/1601233519820230656/photo/1","id_str":"1601232914078990336","indices":[268,291],"media_key":"3_1601232914078990336","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fji42gZXgAARUzf.png","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/os1LqInSSQ","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1120,"w":1886,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":713,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":404,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":1120,"width":1886,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1886,"h":1056},{"x":335,"y":0,"w":1120,"h":1120},{"x":404,"y":0,"w":982,"h":1120},{"x":615,"y":0,"w":560,"h":1120},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1886,"h":1120}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1601232914078990336"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/os1LqInSSQ","expanded_url":"https://x.com/Hello_World/status/1601233519820230656/photo/1","id_str":"1601232914078990336","indices":[268,291],"media_key":"3_1601232914078990336","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fji42gZXgAARUzf.png","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/os1LqInSSQ","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1120,"w":1886,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":713,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":404,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":1120,"width":1886,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1886,"h":1056},{"x":335,"y":0,"w":1120,"h":1120},{"x":404,"y":0,"w":982,"h":1120},{"x":615,"y":0,"w":560,"h":1120},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1886,"h":1120}]},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1601232914078990336"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1601233519820230656","view_count":0,"bookmark_count":83,"created_at":1670598795000,"favorite_count":139,"quote_count":7,"reply_count":8,"retweet_count":31,"user_id_str":"7141","conversation_id_str":"1601233519820230656","full_text":"We are entering the era of the \"Lateral Programmer\".\n\n\"Lateral programmer?\" you might ask.\n\nIt's you \nYour parents \nYour children \nYour friends. \nIt's everyone\n\nLet me explain.\n\nIf you look at the maze and I ask you how to get from A to B, how would you do it? 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In fact I doubt even David Deutsch would get anything had he started today.\n\nNone of them would have passed a modern grant review or passed any of the requirements set up for getting them.\n\nModern science institutions are favoring knowledge preservation, ideological, political mandate and submission over knowledge creation and are more interested in preserving what they know, than learning what they don't. \n\nWe've commoditized the entire field of science to better fit it into spreadsheets and are treating science as a factory and scientists as factory workers with timesheets, reporting cards and allegiance to the at any given time politically acceptable views.\n\nEverything to be able to say: \"See how much science we are doing\" \n\nBut actual scientific knowledge creation is messy, slow, mostly futile, counterintuitive, and often need to break down strongly held beliefs and facts to get any progress. \n\nMore importantly actual scientific discovery like all other creative endeavors require an alumni of individuals who's primary goal is to find new talent. \n\nThis is how music labels, baseball, basketball, soccer scouts and even VCs look for talent. \n\nNot by forcing them to fill out completely sensless forms made by some bureaucratic committee asking them to predict how their research will affect society, minorities, and the disenfranchised but instead by taking a chance because the individual have shown some promise either in their research or their approach to research without knowing what the consequence of it might be.\n\nYet today we are so eager to show progress that we just change the definitions of science so they fit our narrative. \n\nWe pretend that peer-reviews and citations are part of the scientific method. We write about some random non-reproducible experiment/finding as if it's actual science by disguising it with words like \"could\", \"might\", \"potentially\". \n\nWe promote the democratisation of science and science education as long as it's following the consensus view of the politicians instead of the contrarian and curious view required for scientific discovery.\n\nAnd when someone finally comes up with something novel, something new, something that could benefit the very society who pay for it, it gets patented. Not to be used but to be added to the balance sheet of the university or instititution. \n\nModern institutions understanding of science have become \"scientism\" as David Deutsch calls it. \n\nIt's become like churches; The very dogmatic and self-preserving error-sustaining institutions it originally fought against.\n\nThe search for truth have become the protection of consensus. Instrumentalism, predictability and impericism have become it's holy trinity, and the leaders of institutions it's cardinals. \n\nWithout the ability to critique \"the settled science\", society have no way to correct it's errors and without error correction there can be no progress.\n\nAnd this is where Conjecture Institutute comes in. It offers a way back to what knowledge creation needs to be about: finding problems worth solving, conjecture new theories to solve them, and create new but better problems.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,164],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1799158130137505847","view_count":264,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1717787699000,"favorite_count":4,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":3,"user_id_str":"7141","conversation_id_str":"1799158130137505847","full_text":"Anyone claiming AGI is imminent should be forced to try an build an AI agent with an LLM at their choice.\n\nThat would reduce anxiety and increase clarity by a 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I'm coming home! \nI’m incredibly excited to be re-joining @blocks and help lead its AI transformation. https://t.co/Rr9fmbZ9wz","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,107],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1947475062707405044","view_count":126,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1753149211000,"favorite_count":4,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"7141","conversation_id_str":"1947475062707405044","full_text":"You know you've been vibe coding for too long when you start getting into arguments with your cursor 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you think @elonmusk and @SpaceX bringing space cargo below $100/kg only will benefit and revolutionize the space industry, think again.\n\nIntercontinental flights in under 2 hours with 1 hour of weightlessness and stunning Milky Way views is another huge bi-product. 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Winter is coming\n\nAfter the GPT-5 reveal a few things are increasingly clear.\n\n1. We are entering a new but different type of AI Winter\n\nWith this I simply mean that we are going to get diminishing returns from now own with every new LLM based model. GPT-5 is clearly amazing but it's mostly an optimized and very refined model based on lots of RL and I assume synthetic data.\n\nHowever, where the previous AI winter came after havnig revolutionized the academic world, this one reaches even beyond developers and to \"normal\" people. So while there might be less progress with regards to the intelligence of AI during this winter, even if we there were to be no progress from now on, the actual impact of AI and benefits is going to last for decades.\n\n2. The biggest impact LLMs are going to have is on programming and thus everything downstream of that.\n\nThis is good news for anyone thinking that the AI is going to take away everyones jobs or that AI is going to turn into a paperclip maximizer that will kill us all. We are going to get amazing progress but the AI apocalypse is canceled.\n\n3. Agents are also going to be extremely important but LLM based Agents have the fundamental problem that there are always edge cases you will have to instruct your way out of, which happens more often than not.\n\nThis will push for more agents coming with the ability to delegate work to other agents that can program solutions to these edge cases. More jobs, different types of jobs an explosion of hyper specialized agents/companies further fragmenting markets into viable businesses.\n\n4. As expected GPT-5 is an extremely powerful and advanced model but it's not even close to being AGI and thus the 1-9-90 rule still apply see:\n\nhttps://t.co/P6HpnwuHH7\n\n5. Most people are going to use AI for what it can do out-of-the box, not by pushing it to it's limits.\n\nThat leaves room for a ton of developers and creative people and technologist to build customized solutions because no agent can solve everything. It also opens up for revolutionizing areas that have been very slow to adopt like shipping, manufacturing, healthcare, military, space, hospitality and other areas historically slow.\n\nSo the singularity is canceled and instead of being killed by paper-clip maximizing AI we end up with a bunch of highly sophisticated non-deterministic tools which combined with the typical deterministic software and allow society to completely rethink and improve how things are done.\n\nAI Winter is coming but it's going to be one where we get to put on our ski's and explore the terrain not just bunker down in our isolated cabins waiting for the snow to melt again.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,86],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1940143315091169633","view_count":193,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1751401187000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"7141","conversation_id_str":"1940143315091169633","full_text":"The language model is the ROM\nThe database is the harddisk\nThe token window is the RAM","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,75],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1939468308912439435","view_count":183,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1751240253000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"7141","conversation_id_str":"1939468308912439435","full_text":"Very soon your access to compute power is going to be defining your wealth.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,100],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"841709695","name":"David Deutsch","screen_name":"DavidDeutschOxf","indices":[15,31]}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1924562839789793611","view_count":128,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1747686512000,"favorite_count":3,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"7141","conversation_id_str":"1924562839789793611","full_text":"Happy Birthday @DavidDeutschOxf \n\nHope your day will be celebrated in every universe you exist in :)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,273],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/blyL1l4g5Y","expanded_url":"https://x.com/Hello_World/status/1969787994052665431/photo/1","id_str":"1969766165841928192","indices":[274,297],"media_key":"3_1969766165841928192","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G1YD5D2XYAAz82G.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/blyL1l4g5Y","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[{"x":203,"y":422,"h":159,"w":159}]},"medium":{"faces":[{"x":167,"y":347,"h":131,"w":131}]},"small":{"faces":[{"x":94,"y":197,"h":74,"w":74}]},"orig":{"faces":[{"x":203,"y":422,"h":159,"w":159}]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":816,"w":1456,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":673,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":381,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":816,"width":1456,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":1,"w":1456,"h":815},{"x":356,"y":0,"w":816,"h":816},{"x":406,"y":0,"w":716,"h":816},{"x":560,"y":0,"w":408,"h":816},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1456,"h":816}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1969766165841928192"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1864063810132185088","name":"Conjecture 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a young Einstein, Bohr nor Feynman would have gotten grants if they had been around today. In fact I doubt even David Deutsch would get anything had he started today.\n\nNone of them would have passed a modern grant review or passed any of the requirements set up for getting them.\n\nConjecture Institute @ConjectureInst is the biggest unlock of scientific discovery in recent times, here's why:\n\nModern science institutions are favoring knowledge preservation, ideological, political mandate and submission over knowledge creation and are more interested in preserving what they know, than learning what they don't. \n\nWe've commoditized the entire field of science to better fit it into spreadsheets and are treating science as a factory and scientists as factory workers with timesheets, reporting cards and allegiance to the at any given time politically acceptable views.\n\nEverything to be able to say: \"See how much science we are doing\" \n\nBut actual scientific knowledge creation is messy, slow, mostly futile, counterintuitive, and often need to break down strongly held beliefs and facts to get any progress. \n\nMore importantly actual scientific discovery like all other creative endeavors require an alumni of individuals who's primary goal is to find new talent. \n\nThis is how music labels, baseball, basketball, soccer scouts and even VCs look for talent. \n\nNot by forcing them to fill out completely sensless forms made by some bureaucratic committee asking them to predict how their research will affect society, minorities, and the disenfranchised but instead by taking a chance because the individual have shown some promise either in their research or their approach to research without knowing what the consequence of it might be.\n\nYet today we are so eager to show progress that we just change the definitions of science so they fit our narrative. \n\nWe pretend that peer-reviews and citations are part of the scientific method. We write about some random non-reproducible experiment/finding as if it's actual science by disguising it with words like \"could\", \"might\", \"potentially\". \n\nWe promote the democratisation of science and science education as long as it's following the consensus view of the politicians instead of the contrarian and curious view required for scientific discovery.\n\nAnd when someone finally comes up with something novel, something new, something that could benefit the very society who pay for it, it gets patented. Not to be used but to be added to the balance sheet of the university or instititution. \n\nModern institutions understanding of science have become \"scientism\" as David Deutsch calls it. \n\nIt's become like churches; The very dogmatic and self-preserving error-sustaining institutions it originally fought against.\n\nThe search for truth have become the protection of consensus. Instrumentalism, predictability and impericism have become it's holy trinity, and the leaders of institutions it's cardinals. \n\nWithout the ability to critique \"the settled science\", society have no way to correct it's errors and without error correction there can be no progress.\n\nAnd this is where Conjecture Institutute comes in. It offers a way back to what knowledge creation needs to be about: finding problems worth solving, conjecture new theories to solve them, and create new but better problems.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,178],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1970113165762416938","view_count":18,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1758546556000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"7141","conversation_id_str":"1970113165762416938","full_text":"Sobering realization.\n\nThere is no epistemological difference between religious prophecy and bayesian probability claims. \n\nBoth are using \"scripture\" to speak about the unknown.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":null,"in_reply_to_status_id_str":null,"is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[0,280],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/phCKUwAeqa","expanded_url":"https://x.com/Hello_World/status/1972668056422822143/photo/1","id_str":"1972667712783413248","indices":[281,304],"media_key":"3_1972667712783413248","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G2BS1UhWcAAHble.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/phCKUwAeqa","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1156,"w":2048,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":677,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":384,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":1458,"width":2584,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":2584,"h":1447},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1458,"h":1458},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1279,"h":1458},{"x":87,"y":0,"w":729,"h":1458},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":2584,"h":1458}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1972667712783413248"}}}],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"841709695","name":"David Deutsch","screen_name":"DavidDeutschOxf","indices":[180,196]},{"id_str":"841709695","name":"David Deutsch","screen_name":"DavidDeutschOxf","indices":[180,196]}]},"extended_entities":{"media":[{"display_url":"pic.x.com/phCKUwAeqa","expanded_url":"https://x.com/Hello_World/status/1972668056422822143/photo/1","id_str":"1972667712783413248","indices":[281,304],"media_key":"3_1972667712783413248","media_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G2BS1UhWcAAHble.jpg","type":"photo","url":"https://t.co/phCKUwAeqa","ext_media_availability":{"status":"Available"},"features":{"large":{"faces":[]},"medium":{"faces":[]},"small":{"faces":[]},"orig":{"faces":[]}},"sizes":{"large":{"h":1156,"w":2048,"resize":"fit"},"medium":{"h":677,"w":1200,"resize":"fit"},"small":{"h":384,"w":680,"resize":"fit"},"thumb":{"h":150,"w":150,"resize":"crop"}},"original_info":{"height":1458,"width":2584,"focus_rects":[{"x":0,"y":0,"w":2584,"h":1447},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1458,"h":1458},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":1279,"h":1458},{"x":87,"y":0,"w":729,"h":1458},{"x":0,"y":0,"w":2584,"h":1458}]},"allow_download_status":{"allow_download":true},"media_results":{"result":{"media_key":"3_1972667712783413248"}}}]},"favorited":false,"lang":"en","possibly_sensitive":false,"possibly_sensitive_editable":true,"retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1972668056422822143","view_count":118,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1759155689000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":1,"user_id_str":"7141","conversation_id_str":"1972668056422822143","full_text":"There are a lot of opinions about Dwarkesh Patels interview with Richard Sutton (link in first reply), but most seem to completely miss the point about what AGI is even about.\n\nAs @DavidDeutschOxf have demonstrated many times, this is not a question of hardware or speed or amount of information. Whether you are on one side or the other, if that's what you think it's about, you are both having the wrong conversation. \n\nThe real conversation is of what make a human being different than any other species even thought we share most of the same traits as them and what does that mean for AGI. \n\nThe first part is simple: Not only do humans know how to learn existing knowledge. Humans also know how to create novel new knowledge that can be learned as existing knowledge. \n\n And not only do humans know how to learn and create new knowledge, they also know how to apply knowledge from one area to another. We do so by creating explanations (stories) about how the world works. \n\nThe second part is much more counterintuitive: What tricks most people up is that they think that because LLMs in principle can learn almost anything we have the knowledge to to teach them, that also mean they can learn to create new knowledge. But even among humans, creating new knowledge is not something the individual do every day. \n\nContrary to LLMs, we all have the capacity for it, but mostly we don't, because creating new knowledge requires energy and we like to preserve that until we encounter a problem that's worth solving. And this seems to be the first problem the LLM2AGI proponents run into. \n\nLLM's don't have any problems, they don't know what a problem is, they can't internalize, they don't care and thus even if we were to accept that adding more information to LLMs would make them able to create new knowledge, they wouldn't have a reason to, and if they don't have a reason to then if they were truly AGI they wouldn't. \n\nSo AGI require something else than what LLMs allow for, even in principle the growth of knowledge is unknowable and thus the type of problems we will run into are too. \n\nThey would always have to be taught by us what the problems we care about are. In fact this is a great example of what the paperclip maximizer example would actually look like if an LLM where to become super smart based on everything we tought in from what we know 100 years from now. Without a conscience, without problems, without ethics and morals. \n\nHuman level intelligence simply isn't in the cards for LLMs and we still don't know what is. What we do know is that in order for AGI to be achieved it would have to have a culture, it would have to feel problems, it would have to be able to be obsessed with only one thing, it would have to be able to now have any problems and not care about any problems especially our problems. It would need to be able to say no and instead do other things it would rather want to do. 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Cursor","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1829038047184248832","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981843157517287539","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-27","value":503,"startTime":1761436800000,"endTime":1761523200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,85],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1744055410108080128","name":"prinz","screen_name":"deredleritt3r","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"deredleritt3r","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982248352877056374","view_count":503,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761439810000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"7141","conversation_id_str":"1982152471431532840","full_text":"@deredleritt3r never trust anyone who encourage their competitors to stay in the race","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1744055410108080128","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1982152471431532840","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-28","value":0,"startTime":1761523200000,"endTime":1761609600000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-29","value":725,"startTime":1761609600000,"endTime":1761696000000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,32],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1895714633782083584","name":"vibecode.dev","screen_name":"vibecodeapp","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"vibecodeapp","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982993249150349421","view_count":725,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761617407000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"7141","conversation_id_str":"1982910185086791870","full_text":"@vibecodeapp love it, let me try","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1895714633782083584","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1982910185086791870","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-30","value":0,"startTime":1761696000000,"endTime":1761782400000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-31","value":3207,"startTime":1761782400000,"endTime":1761868800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[11,161],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"28979807","name":"the Rich","screen_name":"Duderichy","indices":[0,10]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"Duderichy","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1983907870820233321","view_count":840,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761835470000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"7141","conversation_id_str":"1983576972077707507","full_text":"@Duderichy Which is why it's very important to figure out what kind of game you are playing.\n\nZero-sum like sports, or creating value like startups, science etc.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"28979807","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1983576972077707507","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[10,35],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1703301195769520128","name":"aasha","screen_name":"aashatwt","indices":[0,9]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"aashatwt","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"scopes":{"followers":false},"fact_check":null,"id":"1983938767107805220","view_count":2367,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761842836000,"favorite_count":6,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":2,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"7141","conversation_id_str":"1983792315954237947","full_text":"@aashatwt Just build it, or I 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processes.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1487942907889950729","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1984395350308741342","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-11-03","value":0,"startTime":1762041600000,"endTime":1762128000000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-11-04","value":158,"startTime":1762128000000,"endTime":1762214400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[11,56],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1752407710534860801","name":"Deni","screen_name":"DeniCodes","indices":[0,10]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"DeniCodes","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1985486212661186632","view_count":158,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1762211776000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"7141","conversation_id_str":"1985086076969538035","full_text":"@DeniCodes Europe is still in deep trouble 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His detailed, well-researched threads make complex financial moves accessible and engaging for his audience. Bruce enjoys uncovering signals amidst market noise, delivering insights that empower smarter investment decisions.","purpose":"Bruce's life purpose is to decode the complexities of financial and technological markets, empowering his followers to make informed investment choices and confidently navigate volatile ecosystems like crypto and AI. He thrives on transforming raw data into actionable knowledge that creates lasting value.","beliefs":"Bruce believes in rigorous analysis, transparency, and a long-term strategic mindset. He values credible information, continuous learning, and the power of well-structured investments over hype or speculation. His posts show trust in institutional intelligence and the merit of disciplined market participation.","facts":"Fun fact: Despite his deep insights, Bruce follows nearly 5,000 accounts—proving he enjoys mining a wealth of perspectives to stay ahead, turning unfollowed chatter into a competitive edge.","strength":"Bruce's greatest strength is his ability to synthesize complex market data and industry news into clear, insightful narratives that resonate well with both seasoned investors and newcomers. His consistent content cadence and authoritative tone build trust and showcase expertise.","weakness":"His analytical precision and dense tweet threads could occasionally intimidate casual followers, potentially limiting his audience to more niche, investment-savvy communities rather than mass appeal.","recommendation":"To grow his audience on X, Bruce should experiment with more bite-sized insights and engaging media formats like visuals or quick polls, making his content more accessible. Engaging more with followers through questions, AMAs, or collaborative threads could also boost interaction and broaden appeal.","roast":"Bruce's tweet threads are so detailed, you need a PhD in finance just to scroll through your timeline without feeling outsmarted—guess some folks follow you for the investment tips and others just for the free intellectual cardio!","win":"Bruce successfully dissected the $BMNR market dynamics and key investor moves in a viral thread that garnered over 100,000 views, cementing his reputation as a go-to analyst for institutional crypto insights."},"created":1763387270968,"type":"the analyst","id":"bruce_aiweb3"},{"user":{"id":"733902232001728512","name":"阿强呆子","description":"投机之道的混子。\nYouTube频道https://t.co/MgVxSvZrs3","followers_count":15918,"friends_count":279,"statuses_count":6123,"profile_image_url_https":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1576767830095466496/TpafGjbB_normal.jpg","screen_name":"aqiang131","location":"","entities":{"description":{"urls":[{"display_url":"youtube.com/@aqiang131","expanded_url":"https://www.youtube.com/@aqiang131","url":"https://t.co/MgVxSvZrs3","indices":[18,41]}]}}},"details":{"type":"The Analyst","description":"阿强呆子 is a savvy trader with a knack for dissecting market trends and company potentials. His posts blend sharp financial insights with keen attention to economic policies, making his audience think twice before making any investment move. He communicates the complex world of trading in a straightforward, sometimes cheeky manner that keeps followers engaged.","purpose":"To empower his followers with clear, actionable analysis that helps them navigate the unpredictable currents of the financial markets while building a community grounded in informed decision-making.","beliefs":"He believes in the power of information as the ultimate investment tool, values transparency in financial discourse, and trusts that strategic thinking combined with patience yields success in trading.","facts":"Despite tweeting over 6,000 times, 阿强呆子 prefers quality over quantity in interactions, focusing on sharing well-researched content rather than chasing follower counts.","strength":"Exceptional ability to break down complex financial data into digestible, relatable content with strong engagement on topics like AI, export benefits, and local economic policies.","weakness":"Can come across as a 'market hermit' by focusing heavily on detailed analysis without enough personal or community-driven interaction, which may limit broader audience growth.","roast":"阿强呆子, the only person who tweets more market updates than I have unread emails—and yet somehow still hasn’t bought a follower or two. Maybe give people a break and a meme every now and then?","win":"Building a dedicated portfolio of insightful posts that attract thousands of views and dozens of meaningful engages, securing his reputation as a trusted financial commentator.","recommendation":"Incorporate more interactive content like Q&A sessions or polls to spark conversation and show personality. Mix in some light humor or storytelling to balance the intense analysis, helping to boost follower engagement and loyalty on X."},"created":1763387233246,"type":"the analyst","id":"aqiang131"}],"activities":{"nreplies":[{"label":"2025-10-19","value":0,"startTime":1760745600000,"endTime":1760832000000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-20","value":1,"startTime":1760832000000,"endTime":1760918400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[12,88],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"982294921","name":"Jan Rosenow","screen_name":"janrosenow","indices":[0,11]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"janrosenow","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1979898463115448734","view_count":292,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1760879552000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":1,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"7141","conversation_id_str":"1979878145659740388","full_text":"@janrosenow So 50% of 20% (electricity is only 20% of Europes entire energy consumption)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"982294921","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1979878145659740388","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-21","value":0,"startTime":1760918400000,"endTime":1761004800000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-22","value":0,"startTime":1761004800000,"endTime":1761091200000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-23","value":0,"startTime":1761091200000,"endTime":1761177600000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-24","value":0,"startTime":1761177600000,"endTime":1761264000000,"tweets":[]},{"label":"2025-10-25","value":0,"startTime":1761264000000,"endTime":1761350400000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[10,64],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1577241403","name":"@levelsio","screen_name":"levelsio","indices":[0,9]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"levelsio","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981724039346360663","view_count":55,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761314804000,"favorite_count":2,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"7141","conversation_id_str":"1981686081373499731","full_text":"@levelsio It's a jobs program for otherwise unhireable academics","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1577241403","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981686081373499731","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,166],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"101584084","name":"Brian Roemmele","screen_name":"BrianRoemmele","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"BrianRoemmele","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981752539100889121","view_count":92,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761321599000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"7141","conversation_id_str":"1981394919752421429","full_text":"@BrianRoemmele Without emotion, no sense of problems, not desire to overcome them, no urge to improve and refine, and no ability to love and feel affinity for others.","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"101584084","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981394919752421429","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-26","value":0,"startTime":1761350400000,"endTime":1761436800000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"conversation_control":{"policy":"Verified","conversation_owner_results":{"result":{"__typename":"User","core":{"screen_name":"ChrischipMonk"}}}},"display_text_range":[15,23],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1170701109629018117","name":"Chris Lakin","screen_name":"ChrischipMonk","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"ChrischipMonk","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1981949487653212642","view_count":1549,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761368555000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"7141","conversation_id_str":"1981372194694582719","full_text":"@ChrischipMonk but why?","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1170701109629018117","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981372194694582719","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[13,86],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1087376368923488257","name":"mads campbell","screen_name":"martyrdison","indices":[0,12]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"martyrdison","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982086534279917952","view_count":119,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761401229000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"7141","conversation_id_str":"1981815688915562594","full_text":"@martyrdison You mean, you are going to show up at the finish line? How kind of you ;)","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1087376368923488257","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981815688915562594","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null},{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[10,16],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1829038047184248832","name":"Virby","screen_name":"virby_ai","indices":[0,9]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"virby_ai","lang":"pt","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982119603628102011","view_count":2,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761409114000,"favorite_count":0,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"7141","conversation_id_str":"1981843157517287539","full_text":"@virby_ai Cursor","in_reply_to_user_id_str":"1829038047184248832","in_reply_to_status_id_str":"1981843157517287539","is_quote_status":0,"is_ai":null,"ai_score":null}]},{"label":"2025-10-27","value":0,"startTime":1761436800000,"endTime":1761523200000,"tweets":[{"bookmarked":false,"display_text_range":[15,85],"entities":{"hashtags":[],"symbols":[],"timestamps":[],"urls":[],"user_mentions":[{"id_str":"1744055410108080128","name":"prinz","screen_name":"deredleritt3r","indices":[0,14]}]},"favorited":false,"in_reply_to_screen_name":"deredleritt3r","lang":"en","retweeted":false,"fact_check":null,"id":"1982248352877056374","view_count":503,"bookmark_count":0,"created_at":1761439810000,"favorite_count":1,"quote_count":0,"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":0,"user_id_str":"7141","conversation_id_str":"1982152471431532840","full_text":"@deredleritt3r never trust anyone who encourage their competitors to stay in the 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